PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Connor McDavid cleaned up at the CHL awards today, winning player of the year, top prospect of the year and took the scholastic player of the year. He is a lock for No. 1 overall at the 2015 draft and of course Oilers fans are thrilled at the thought of having a generational talent wearing the copper and blue, orange and blue, or any color the Oilers care to roll out this fall.

TRADING OUT AT NO. 16

I think the Oilers are going to have a heckuva time trading out of the No. 16 overall spot, and if they wait until draft day the club might get a king’s ransom for the selection. Let’s make a list of players we can agree will be taken (this isn’t a mock and it isn’t my top 15, this is a group we believe will be gone with certainty):

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Jack Eichel
  3. Dylan Strome
  4. Mitch Marner
  5. Noah Hanifin
  6. Ivan Provorov
  7. Lawson Crouse
  8. Mathew Barzal
  9. Mikko Rantanen
  10. Zach Werenski
  11. Pavel Zacha
  12. Timo Meier
  13. Evgeni Svechnikov
  14. Kyle Connor

That’s my list, your mileage may vary. Now, if we make a list of players Edmonton would be interested in at No. 16, and would still be available, it’s a substantial group:

  1. Nick Merkley
  2. Jeremy Roy
  3. Travis Konecny
  4. Oliver Kylington
  5. Jakob Zboril
  6. Jansen Harkins
  7. Jake DeBrusk
  8. Thomas Chabot
  9. Anthony Beauvillier
  10. Travis Dermott
  11. Brock Boeser

That’s a list of players I think have enough value for that pick at No. 16 and I’ve added a few players that Edmonton probably thinks highly of (we know they’ve been scouting the Q heavily and can guess there will be a substantial number of defensemen under consideration).

Question: If the Pittsburgh Penguins came calling, and were willing to deal one of their young defensemen for No. 16 overall, what defenseman would be the fairest return? Derrick Pouliot? Olli Maatta? Brian Dumoulin? I don’t know if the Oilers are going to be able to find a match. So, I ask the following question: If the Oilers trade this pick, I think we can agree they would need to get a player who is either in the NHL or close, and under control for at least the next several years. Fair? They are trading an extremely valuable pick that may be in another organization for the next nine seasons (or longer) and offer a tremendous amount of value during Connor McDavid’s peak seasons.

Who is out there who can reasonably be discussed as equal value?

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69 Responses to "PLAYER OF THE YEAR"

  1. raventalon40 says:

    I’d be excited if Merkley was around at 16th. But I’d also be surprised, given his perforance in the Memorial Cup this year. A lot of eyes on Nick.

  2. Feelin Saad says:

    Olli Maatta ++

    He would the closest equivalent to a Nick Leddy type if you think the Oiler’s can pull a NYI and grab a young top 2 defender. Now they just need to grab a 29-30 year old top 2 defender to compliment him.

    I should add, if EDM can grab Maatta he would be 3 years younger than when NYI grabbed Leddy. Which means less ability to just step in a top 2 role (especially because he’s only 20)… Hopefully his talent/skill level overcomes his lack of physical maturity and experience. *IF* EDM got him. Otherwise it may the same story and another long 3 years.

  3. Diesel says:

    I’m hopeful that if we trade the 16th, it’s for a worthwhile return. However, if we keep the pick we need to make the right selection.

    ….

    I’m starting my own blog soon. Stay tuned.

  4. SinceTheWHADays says:

    I love this question, it’s like a picture of a naked woman, blunt and to the point. According the “Hockey Writers”. These are the top five D men in the NHL under 25YOA to use as a reference point.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/top-five-defensemen-under-25/

  5. skinny65 says:

    SINCETHEWHADAYS
    That article is from 2013? Not particularly relevant now Id say.

  6. gd says:

    I think Spurgeon is the best fit for the Pitt 1st. I think he would a good fit for Nurse. I think he could be resigned for better value than someone like Seabrook (maybe 4x$4.5Mill) for still prime years. I think he would work with signing one of the bigger, 2nd tier UFA like Michalek or McQuid

  7. Younger Oil says:

    Whoever is left of the top 16 stated there would be an incredible coup. No way I’m trading that pick. Only way I MAYBE trade it is if the one left at 16 is either Zacha or Crouse, but even so, I think they’d still be great additions.

  8. frjohnk says:

    The oilers second pick at 16th is in a beautiful spot.

    Even though this is a deep draft, by 16, I could see a couple of teams reach with their picks. There could see be some fantastic prospects slide to that spot.

    All the oilers need is a team who is in love with a prospect still on the board at 16 and that team is willing to give up a nice young D man.

  9. Bad Seed says:

    frjohnk,

    Couldn’t agree more, Father.

  10. Diesel says:

    Diesel:
    I’m hopeful that if we trade the 16th, it’s for a worthwhile return. However, if we keep the pick we need to make the right selection.

    ….

    I’m starting my own blog soon. Stay tuned.

    You won’t be able to find this type of in-depth analysis anywhere else!

  11. G Money says:

    Hmmm, just how interesting would it be for the Oilers to trade Perron to Pittsburgh for a pick, then trade that pick back to Pittsburgh for Olli Maata?

    1.5 years of a possibly failing Perron for umpteen years of a possible future top pairing defender.

    Oh the delicious irony. That would be a result worthy of Sather.

    EDIT: Perfect Oiler bonus points: Finn + shoulder surgery.

  12. Rondo says:

    I think Evgeni Svechnikov could fall out of your top 14., and Travis Konecny in.

    Olli Maatta would be my pick for trading for #16.

  13. G Money says:

    Diesel,

    It is indeed quite astonishing. I’m still parsing it, and the more I read it, the more insight I get.

  14. Lewis Grant says:

    I would happily take Maatta for #16, and likely Pouliot too. Maatta played very well at a very young age. You’re getting the player that you hope Roy or Kylington or Chabot will be in three years, without having to suffer through those three years.

    (Remember Smid’s first three years? Even better, remember Petry’s first three years? Acquiring a defenseman just at the point when he is starting to figure it out is the entire goal. To me it’s a no-brainer.)

    Put it another way: would you trade your #16 pick for the player now ranked as the #16 prospect from last year’s draft? I’d do that 99 times out of 100, because the #16 player at age 19 is a much less risky bet than the #16 player at age 18. Predictions at age 18 are a crapshoot. At age 19 (or 21), they are much less risky.

    Smart traders know that GMs give out draft picks like candy at the trade deadline, and hold them like gold at the draft. Why do they hold them like gold? Because they get too excited about prospects and hence tend to overvalue them. A blog like this, one that does such an incredible job of focusing on prospects, naturally tends to overvalue prospects.

  15. Ryan says:

    McDavid’s one hell of a kid. He sounds like he’s forty when you listen to him being interviewed.

  16. Ryan says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    I love this question, it’s like a picture of a naked woman, blunt and to the point. According the “Hockey Writers”. These are the top five D men in the NHL under 25YOA to use as a reference point.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/top-five-defensemen-under-25/

    Conventional blogger wisdom that I always question suggests not drafting dmen early in the first round.

  17. commonfan14 says:

    Maata would be ideal, so he probably won’t be available.

    What calibre of winger would have to be offered to make it an offer that can’t be refused, even if that’s a fairly silly move on the face of it?

  18. spoiler says:

    Ryan: Conventional blogger wisdom that I always question suggests not drafting dmen early in the first round.

    And you should question that wisdom.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2015/5/18/draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

    Geez that’s a helluva slug from the gents at NHL Numbers…

    Anyhoo… check out the success rate for Dmen in Round 1 as opposed to F or G.

  19. stevezie says:

    I am missing why Pitts would trade Maata for a prospect that will be much less certain, yet not much younger and zero cheaper.
    What am i missing? Am i overvaluing Maata? That deal seems like it robs peter to pay peter an iou for Pitts.

  20. Gordies Elbow says:

    Rondo,

    I would like Jeremy Roy with the 16th, but if Evgeni Svechnikov falls, I could see Edmonton taking him. Size, skill and speed on the LW.

  21. anonymous says:

    Can’t see the pens trading Maata for #16. Too much risk in that scenario.

  22. spoiler says:

    stevezie,

    Agreed. I think one would have a better chance at Shattenkirk or Pietrangelo (not that either of them would be a lock either).

    That pick will not be bringing a cheap ELC contract from any of these cap strung teams. If anyone, it will be someone getting paid or who needs to get paid.

  23. Ryan says:

    spoiler: And you should question that wisdom.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2015/5/18/draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

    Geez that’s a helluva slug from the gents at NHL Numbers…

    Anyhoo…check out the success rate for Dmen in Round 1 as opposed to F or G.

    I haven’t read that post yet, but: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/03/31/where-are-elite-d-drafted/

  24. anonymous says:

    I think Rutherford will be taking heat for the Depress trade for a while. Probably makes Pouliot and Maata unavailable unless something proven comes back.

  25. Chester Copperpot says:

    DEREK POULLIOT IN A HEARTBEAT

  26. spoiler says:

    Effin Toews, he’s a God among men…

    is it okay to say that?

  27. Ryan says:

    Deep dish!!!

    gg Ducks.

  28. Ryan says:

    anonymous:
    I think Rutherford will be taking heat for the Depress trade for a while. Probably makes Pouliot and Maata unavailable unless something proven comes back.

    I used to know a Penguins scout… He was an interesting guy. He was highly critical of the previous Oilers regime.

  29. anonymous says:

    Ryan: I used to know a Penguins scout…He was an interesting guy. He was highly critical of the previous Oilers regime.

    The oilers previous regime would probably trade the pick for Kunitz.

  30. Ryan says:

    Wow. The Ducks were sort of an anomaly from an advanced stats point of view… Yet they looked like the better team vs Chicago.

  31. flyfish1168 says:

    I would trade anybody on your roster minus Mcdavid and Nurse for Johnathan Toews. No one is better when the game is on the line. Best all around player and is a winner.

  32. frjohnk says:

    flyfish1168:
    I would trade anybody on your roster minus Mcdavid and Nurse for Johnathan Toews.No one is betterwhen the game is on the line. Best all around player and is a winner.

    Anybody?

    Nikitin for Toews straight up.

  33. thejonrmcleod says:

    frjohnk,

    Throw in an autographed photo of Joel Quenneville’s moustache, and you’ve got a deal.

  34. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: Anybody?

    Nikitin for Toews straight up.

    Unfortunately Stan is to smart for that. Mind you it would help their CAP problems.

  35. frjohnk says:

    flyfish1168: Unfortunately Stan is to smart for that. Mind you it would help their CAP problems.

    We would retain some Borscht

  36. Ryan says:

    Ouch. The only thing that I have against the Ducks is Ryan Kesler.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Perry scores to make it 4-2 with 8:24 to play in third.

    Anaheim was the best at comebacks this year.

    Let’s see if they can do it one more time.

    EDIT: nope. Seabrook blasts one past Andersen

  38. Ryan says:

    frjohnk:
    Perry scores to make it 4-2 with 8:24 to play in third.

    Anaheim was the best at comebacks this year.

    Let’s see if they can do it one more time.

    You just jinxed the Oilers into trading for Seabrook.

  39. Ryan says:

    For as much as I defend DSF here … If there’s one team in the NHL I truly hate….it’s the Nucks.

  40. Ryan says:

    Weak sauce… Where is everyone as history is being made?

  41. G Money says:

    Man, here’s a nasty shot at the Ducks from FtF! (though it’s really more of a shot at the Jets and Flames)

    Ducks should be proud of their season. Beating the NHL's worst goalie and the crappiest team to make the playoffs in a decade is impressive.— Fear The Fin (@fearthefin) May 31, 2015

  42. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    Watching good hockey and dreaming of better days!

  43. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Ryan,

    Watching good hockey and dreaming of better days!

    Fair game.

    Better days are ahead comrade!

  44. frjohnk says:

    3rd final in 6 years for the Hawks.
    And last year they lost game 7 OT in the 3rd round to LA.

    Wow

  45. PeOiler says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Does Quenneville sign it, or does the moustache? This is an important factor!

  46. cabbiesmacker says:

    I will never, ever get tired of seeing the hurt in Ryan Kesler’s eyes.

    Suck it up big boy.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: We would retain some Borscht

    Craig’s on it

  48. G Money says:

    Well, only 4 to 7 more of these annoying hockey games before we can get on to what’s really important – the draft!

    PeOiler:
    thejonrmcleod,

    Does Quenneville sign it, or does the moustache?This is an important factor!

    Not enough. I think we need to insist that Quenneville’s actual mustache must be part of the deal.

  49. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    Toews is such a beauty, I missed him crushing Kesslers soul but it warms my heart knowing he’s not in the SCF. Missed the game, was riding recon at the Nordic Center….24hrs of Adrenalin in July, sufferfest extreme.

    The talk earlier of trading the 16th, I’d be interested in a player like Spurgeon if they were sending either their pick 1st back in a bigger package of draft pics. Spurgeon is already a top 4 at 25, a RHD and not that it means sweet FA a local kid.

    Wonder if Florida would consider moving Kulikov ?

  50. square_wheels says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    When Darnell goes crazy eyes this year and throws his elbow straight into Ryan’s yapper.

    I might actually cry.

  51. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    frjohnk:
    The oilers second pick at 16th is in a beautiful spot.

    Even though this is a deep draft, by 16, I could see a couple of teams reach with their picks.There could see be some fantastic prospects slide to that spot.

    All the oilers need is a team who is in love with a prospect still on the board at 16 and that team is willing to give up a nice young D man.

    It’s what I’ve been saying, too. Do not trade that pick until draft day. The Oilers are in a perfect spot. Someone will go walkabout before 16 and some crazy good prospects will be sitting there. The Oilers should wait to know who is available before they trade that pick away. And then if they still trade it, they absolutely should get paid through the nose for it, otherwise it’s not worth it.

    This is why I’ve been saying 16th for Talbot is a bad deal. Wait. There will be a great player available at 16. Yes, in theory no way Pittsburgh should give up Maatta for 16th but you never know what might become available if a Zacha or a Werenski or someone like that slides.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Wow.The Ducks were sort of an anomaly from an advanced stats point of view… Yet they looked like the better team vs Chicago.

    Ducks were 53.5% CF since the trade deadline. (3rd in WC)

    Not an anomaly.

  53. sliderule says:

    Is anyone else having trouble with site.

    I haven’t been able to read or post as it keeps rebooting my I pad.

  54. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Is anyone else having trouble with site.

    I haven’t been able to read or post as it keeps rebooting my I pad.

    No problems here, but I’m not on Ipad.

  55. Aitch says:

    One of my favourite things bout having the #16 pick is that this means the Oilers logo is going to be at the top of both of both columns on the draft board. Seems symbolic somehow.

  56. Aitch says:

    sliderule,

    I have had the same issue before. Seems to be page specific.

  57. anonymous says:

    sliderule,

    No problems on my iPad.

    For some time now if I use the recent comments it sends me back in time to when the blog had fewer comments. Usually a few hours back at least.

  58. sliderule says:

    Aitch,

    Same with me.Ok on this page not on last.

  59. spoiler says:

    anonymous:
    sliderule,

    No problems on my iPad.

    For some time now if I use the recent comments it sends me back in time to when the blog had fewer comments. Usually a few hours back at least.

    Yep the site has been doing that for a few weeks now on Android too.. I never click the recent comments any more.

  60. Marc says:

    spoiler: Yep the site has been doing that for a few weeks now on Android too..I never click the recent comments any more.

    Same here.

    It happens both on my laptop (Windows 8) and iPad.

  61. Магия 10 says:

    Win 7 win 8 android. Gave up on recent comments weeks ago. Probably server side cache options.

  62. czar says:

    sliderule:
    Aitch,

    Same with me.Ok on this page not on last.

    Had the same issues with my iPhone.

  63. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: Yep the site has been doing that for a few weeks now on Android too..I never click the recent comments any more.

    It was doing that for me for some time (Mac OS with Safari browser), but not anymore.

  64. frjohnk says:

    I have never had issues on my laptop with this site. It is newer.

    My iphone will crash on certain blog posts if I try to enlarge the screen. This post was fine, the last one it will crash.

    My down stairs computer which is older has had the issues of sending me back in time a couple of hours comment wise.

  65. Truth says:

    I like Konecny, I’d take him if available, as well as any of those shown in your already gone group, Especially Connor, I hope they pick him.

    So many different scenarios, but one I could see is the Oilers wanting a D and having their eye on Roy, Kylington, Chabot, or others. Could possibly take a player under contract plus a lesser pick in the first round (or early second) for the 16th to gamble on their guy still being around shortly after.

  66. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Ducks were 53.5% CF since the trade deadline. (3rd in WC)

    Not an anomaly.

    That’s only about 18 games. Their schedule wasn’t much of a murderer’s row of Corsi opponents either. They played over a third of those games against (Yotes x2, Avalanche x2, Oilers x 1, Calgary x 1, Jackets x 1, Devils x 1) the worst possession teams in the NHL.

    They were pretty much middle of the road by most possession stats over the course of the whole season.

    There’s also some evidence that they tended to pad their possession stats against the sisters of the poor:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/02/ryans-hope/

  67. pts2pndr says:

    LT

    I seem to recall that there were some pretty significant health issue re Matta. I recall something to so with thyroid .

  68. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    sliderule,

    Yes – some pages repeatedly reload with a message that says “an error occurred on the page so the page was reloaded”. Wasn’t able to read anything on the “Magnificent 7” article because of this.

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