OILERS HOUSE OVERHAUL

Interesting article out yesterday at Canucks Army suggesting the cap could come in around $69 million for next year—and that could be very good news for Peter Chiarelli. The NHL will probably squeeze $71M out of the cap for next year, but let’s see how things might roll with $69M as the marker.

If we assume the Oilers plan to start as they mean to go, there’s some money we can save right off the top:

  • Walk away from (or trade) Justin Schultz. I know it seems severe but the chances of Schultz covering the cost on $4M (or so) is not a good bet.
  • Walk from any contract talks with Derek Roy, despite Yak’s progress with him (real or imagined).

Those roster spots now open, and with $69 million bucks to spend, let’s look at the cap hits for the established players.

PROJECTED ROSTER, BEFORE ADDITIONS oilers 15-16 depth chart

The budget is $69M for 23 players, we’re spending $51,282,000 (according to my calculator) for 16 players. Some of those players (7D, 4C) are going to be inexpensive, and the 3L might be as well (we’ll see). Candidates for the open spots are:

  • 2C (Connor McDavid, his entry-level deal will be $3.775M with bonuses—with have to assume max)
  • 3L (Leon Draisaitl his deal will be $3.4M with bonuses, unlikely but you never know).
  • 3D (Darnell Nurse, his entry level deal will be $1.713M with bonuses).

That’s $8,888,000 million for the three players, with only McDavid guaranteed a roster spot. Let’s proceed in that way, with McDavid the only impact rookie added to the group and the other two in the minors (both Nurse and Draisaitl could be recalled early but it would help if Leon’s bonus opportunities burned off in Bakersfield). That puts us at 17 players, $55,057,000 allowing shopping for 6 players with $13,943,000 in room. There are some internal options but let’s see if we can find the major pieces before moving forward. By the way, much of the information in terms of cap is courtesy Jonathan Willis and his article here. I would also refer you to Jason Gregor’s article here, in which he said “my sources told me that Seabrook would have no problem coming to Edmonton.” We’ve talked about Seabrook for some time. Smoke, fire. The ‘Hawks may have other ideas.

  • 1D: Brent Seabrook ($5.8M)
  • 1G: Brian Elliott ($2.5M)
  • 3D: Martin Marincin ($.850M)
  • 3L: Iiro Pakarinen ($.925M)
  • 5R: Tyler Pitlick ($.760M)
  • 7D: Brandon Davidson ($.700M)

Now. We’re not going to worry about the asset cost for Seabrook, and maybe it’s another player that Peter Chiarelli acquires for that role. We’ve reached 23 players, and the cap total is $66,592,000. That leaves $2.408M for space and that’s not much at all—assuming $69M cap hit.

PROJECTED ROSTER OILERS 15-16 PROJECTED

The Brian Elliott idea comes from the truly brilliant Sunil Agnihotri. Seabrook and Elliott are not presented here as THE solution, but rather as A possible solution to Edmonton’s issues. Maybe the Oilers grab Elliott and Jay Bouwmeester in a blockbuster. It does show that it is possible to address the two major needs (1D, 1G) without buying anyone out. It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap. You may ask yourself ‘what are they giving up to get Seabrook and Elliott?’ and I will say that wasn’t the intent of the exercise but you’d have to bet heavily on draft picks and prospects in this scenario. I don’t see Marincin being here in the fall, but put him on the list because he’s one of the six best defensemen in the organization.

PBR WinStar World Casino Invitational 1-27-13

Martindale photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

MACGREGOR’S MISSES

With the news yesterday that Marco and Jackson Houck would not be signed, we can close the book of missteps at the draft table from the MacGregor era (Bob Green era straight ahead). There were some significant misses, none bigger than Roy:

  • No. 56 in 2013 C Marco Roy
  • No. 61 in 2010 C Ryan Martindale
  • No. 62 in 2011 G Samu Perhonen
  • No. 71 in 2009 D Troy Hesketh
  • No. 74 in 2011 C Travis Ewanyk
  • No. 82 in 2009 R Cameron Abney
  • No. 91 in 2010 D Jeremie Blain
  • No. 94 in 2013 R Jackson Houck
  • No. 99 in 2009 D Kyle Bigos

It’s unfair to call these draft busts—Marco Roy could go on to a perfectly good NHL career—but it’s a failure of the procurement department (imo) to spend a No. 56 pick in a good draft year on a guy they didn’t consider worth signing. I remain undecided on who is to blame—player or team—but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Roy managed to establish himself as an NHL player in a Riley Nash kind of way.

The good news is that the 2013 draft looks like it will produce some NHL players. From that draft are signed men Darnell Nurse, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Platzer, Ben Betker and Greg Chase. That’s six signed players from one draft, the most by Edmonton since 2011. Not mentioned in all of this: I think Edmonton had to sign John McCarron too, although there might be a later date for college men (I don’t recall).

NOT SIGNED FROM 2013 DRAFT (AN INCOMPLETE GUIDE)

  • No.49 L Gabryel Boudreau (SJS)
  • No. 56 C Marco Roy (EDM)
  • No. 62 L Yan-Pavel Laplante (ARI)
  • No. 122 L Chris Clapperton (FLA)
  • No. 126 L Brent Pederson (CAR)
  • No. 135 D Eric Roy (CAL)
  • No. 139 D Mitch Wheaton (DET)
  • No. 144 D Blake Heinrich (WAS)
  • No. 160 R Myles Bell (NJD)
  • No. 163 G Brendan Burke (ARI)
  • No. 169 D Mark McNulty (DET)
  • No. 171 L Tommy Veilleux (NAS)
  • No. 200 G Alexander Belanger (MIN)
  • No. 205 D Miles Leberati (VAN)
  • No. 208 G Anthony Brodeur (NJD)
  • No. 210 L Mitchell Dempsey (BOS)

This is courtesy Brennan Klak on twitter. Anyone there you like? Clapperton had some interesting numbers. I think Roy gets signed by someone, we’ll see how things go. The teams that dumped players include good drafting clubs, but No. 56 overall stings for sure.

mystery train

 LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat this morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. We’ll discuss the amateur scouting department, Leon and the summer.
  • Wil Fraser, TSN1260’s Nielson and Fraser. We had a lot of reaction to his last visit, I’ll ask him some of the questions you sent me. I’ll also ask if he is interested in doing a ‘point-counter point’ segment with an area blogger sometime this summer. Anyone in the community interested?
  • Eric Rodgers, Tend the Farm. Remembering the Barons.
  • Rod Pedersen, Voice of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. We find out how things are going in pre-season.
  • Dean Millard, TSN1260. Dean was named the new host of TSN1260’s 9-midnight slot. Well earned, we’ll talk about what the show will sound like.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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175 Responses to "OILERS HOUSE OVERHAUL"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Marco was not a bad bet, but the fact is he did not progress year to year. It happens. Injuries are the prime culprit, but even outside of that its the unavoidability inherent with drafting kids at 18. It’s hard to say who anyone will be when they are 18, in hockey or in life.

    Not signing him doesn’t highlight organizational failure in any way.

    Not signing him highlights organizational maturity. It was, analytically, the correct call.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    While I am excited about having a GM with experience I am worried about Chiarreli’s draft record. Other than the 2006 draft, which he supposedly was not allowed to partake in, drafting Phil Kessel as number 5 and then the subsequent pieces from the Phil Kessel trade Bruins draft record has been worse than the Oilers. Which is a big part of the reason the decline of the Bruins. Here is a list of their draft picks

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00004919.html.

    With so many good draft picks that the Oilers have in this draft, it might be a blessing in disguise to having to keep Chia away, which is my understanding for signing him while still under contract.

  3. Ice Sage says:

    Good organizations know when to cut their losses. There was a time when the Oilers would have (had to?) sign a sputtering prospect like Marco Roy but no longer – the cupboards aren’t stocked with crumbs and mouldy cheezwhiz anymore. What are the odds on a # 56 pick making the NHL? Float on, Q tweener…

    Looking forward to some combine scoops! Any kid who can’t do a pull-up bears watching 😉

  4. Pajamah says:

    If the Oilers can get Seabrook and Elliott for picks and prospects I will be ecstatic.

    Not every team has a Hall/Eberle/RNH, but every team has 1 or 2 high end players that they over value, and would absolutely despise trading. Maybe as fans we over value our own, but I would love to see this team make the moves needed without moving one of the wunderkinds.

    Also…..WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

  5. Donye West says:

    I’d be happy to land Seabrook and Elliot as well, but let’s be honest for a moment, that mock roster is still not even close to being good enough to make the playoffs.

  6. sumaclab says:

    Wait and see where the chips fall. I do not see July 1st as a busy time for the Oilers. I would love to see Brian Elliote and Bowmeester in Edmonton.With Tarasenko needing to be signed the Blues need to dump salary. Something has to change in St Louis. would Justin Shultz and the 33rd and 2016 3rd be reasonable?.

  7. elpolodiablo says:

    I don’t see a big free agent move or signing this summer. I’ve been reading “The Blueprint” by Christopher Price I think they wait a year to see what players fit with McLellan’s system, I don’t see them spending a wad a cash on a Seabrook, it will be lower level agents that can outperform. If they trade anyone it will be Eberle, not Yakupov given realized upside. I don’t think any major moves this year other than possibly getting a goalie and an undervalued defenseman

  8. kinger_OIL says:

    Donye West:
    I’d be happy to land Seabrook and Elliot as well, but let’s be honest for a moment, that mock roster is still not even close to being good enough to make the playoffs.

    Yeah – its depressing when you look at Chicago, and the age of their core, and their playoff runs, and the age of hall, eberle… time is a ticking. Tampa with their young core… sad really to think of the years wasted by the bumbling OIL…

  9. Doug McLachlan says:

    Hi LT,

    We all like Seabrook but his cost will not only cap space but the price in assets to acquire. I think we get by with two of Andrej Sekera, Cody Franson, Zybnek Michalek, and or Christian Ehrhoff.

    BTW, at center, whatever happened to talk of Carl Soderberg?

  10. Ducey says:

    I guess the notion of reasonable expectations has gone out the window.

    No way Seabrook ends up in EDM. The odds of him leaving CHI are very low. They can easily trade guys like Sharp and Bickell and solve their cap issues.

    If he does come, it will not be a good thing. EDM will have to overpay to get him and overpay him to keep him.

  11. Bag of Pucks says:

    Great post LT. So much great content and so much insight on a number of topics.

    That roster breakdown by cap hit is so illustrative in defining the road ahead for Chia.

    The dead money is obvious (Nikitin, Ference, Purcell) as is the value contracts (Hall, Nuge, KBom, Gordon). Move out the former for more of the latter and this team is cooking with gas.

    Pouliot’s spot on that chart really helps the argument as well that NOT all UFA signings are overpriced. We really have to give MacT credit for that one. Perfectly addressed a core team need without breaking the bank. Would love to see Chia accomplish the same on the D side in free agency.

    Lastly, you are so charitable towards these young men. One of your best traits. A cynic like me thinks becoming “an NHL player in a Riley Nash kind of way” means not an NHL player at all. But you appreciate, and rightly so, how truly difficult this journey is and how much the odds are stacked against these gifted youngsters. Balanced pov as always. Bravo.

  12. Woodguy says:

    It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap.

    You do not have to account for possible bonuses on the cap.

    That was the old CBA.

    You can list McDavid, DrySaddle and Nurse at their base salaries of $925K (NHL rookie max)

    However, it would be prudent to leave space for McDavid to reach all of his bonuses. (this is referred to as “bonus cushion”

    DrySaddle and Nurse, not so much.

    I’ll dig up the relevant part of the CBA.

  13. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks WG.

    For reasons unrelated to the cap, I would be more comfortable intending to enter the season with Draisaitl and Nurse in Bakersfield (they won’t be there long) and filling those slots with NHLers.

  14. Really? says:

    Two things about the thread today are very reassuring. First thing is the acknowledgement that the Oilers are not likely a play off team, even with some additions and secondly is the fact that the Oilers are actually making objective business decisions (i.e. Roy contract).

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    Was watching some video on McDavid’s training regimen yesterday. Man, this lad is mature for his age. An old soul.

    I will not directly compare him to the ‘GOAT’ on ice, but off ice, I definitely see the similarities. McDavid eats, sleeps, lives and breathes hockey. If we recall the anecdotal stories of the ways in which Gretzky led the way in building a Championship culture (particularly in practice), the mind boggles at the positive effect ‘The Next One’ will have on his teammates. Combine that with some renewed enthusiasm for the game from Hall and Eberle, possible new blood from FAs and trade, and the eventual rookie zeal from Nurse and Leon. Man the future is looking bright.

    I’m feeling so bullish these days. I can even visualize a practical mission statement for this season. Let Eakins ‘chop wood and carry water’ in the WHL. The motto for this season’s squad is ‘No Passengers!’ Sorry Jultz, you don’t fit with the new mission for obvious reasons,

    Notice how it pays subtle homage to the recently deposed Boys on the Bus? ; )

  16. stevezie says:

    As long as we’re taking Blues, radio keeps saying they’ll want to change something and that might mean Backes.

    31 and 4.75 aren’t the right numbers but considering he is pretty close to exactly the player type we crave we have to kick tires, no? Especially if Gordon were part of what’s going the other way?

    Teams who want change for the sake of change tend to make mistakes.

  17. raventalon40 says:

    I’m surprised Eric Roy idn’t get signed? He’s got pretty good boxcars for a junior D (to say nothing of the player, I’ve never seen him play).

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie:
    As long as we’re taking Blues, radio keeps saying they’ll want to change something and that might mean Backes.

    31 and 4.75 aren’t the right numbers but considering he is pretty close to exactly the player type we crave we have to kick tires, no? Especially if Gordon were part of what’s going the other way?

    Teams who want change for the sake of change tend to make mistakes.

    I heard David Backes is changing his name to David Copperfield, cos he disappears in the playoffs.

    Rimshot.

    Thanks, I’ll be here all week. Try the veal.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap.

    You do not have to account for possible bonuses on the cap.

    That was the old CBA.

    You can list McDavid, DrySaddle and Nurse at their base salaries of $925K (NHL rookie max)

    However, it would be prudent to leave space for McDavid to reach all of his bonuses.(this is referred to as “bonus cushion”

    DrySaddle and Nurse, not so much.

    I’ll dig up the relevant part of the CBA.

    As I understand it, you can push back the cap bonus earned, to the following year, but still have to pay for it. Correct?

  20. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Please no more talk of Seabrook. He’s the third best defenceman on his team. Will be 31 next season. And reportedly his camp is seeking 8×8. You read that right 8 years at $8m per. Cap cancer.

  21. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,

    I was under the impression that you had to account for this year’s bonuses either this year or next. If so, I’d suggest it prudent to not push anything into the future, including buyouts and bonuses.

  22. jm363561 says:

    Now the euphoria of McD, PChia and TMac has worn off there is a noticeable return to Earth of expectations in the blogs for the coming year. I have always thought time must be allowed to see how the players – Scrivens, JShultz, MM, Nikitin – perform in a non-dysfunctional environment before major surgery. In some ways it would be more interesting to project the roster next year – Nikitin, Purcell, maybe Ference and Gordon, gone. Nurse, Leon, D2, in, things start to look pretty good talent and cap hit wise.

    I have not given up on this coming season, but I am starting to feel really good about 2016.

    I really can’t explain it but having been a fan of Anton Lander from Day 1, and having seen him look an absolute star in Prague, I just see him being a lynch pin of the team this year. I need help!

  23. RexLibris says:

    I’d prefer Bouwmeester to Seabrook, personally.

    Bouwmeester is a year older, but by eye he looks to have more tread left on the tires and I prefer his shutdown game/passing ability. He may also cost less than Seabrook due to the lack of a SC halo.

  24. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: As I understand it, you can push back the cap bonus earned, to the following year, but still have to pay for it. Correct?

    That’s my understanding.

  25. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy:
    It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap.

    You do not have to account for possible bonuses on the cap.

    That was the old CBA.

    You can list McDavid, DrySaddle and Nurse at their base salaries of $925K (NHL rookie max)

    However, it would be prudent to leave space for McDavid to reach all of his bonuses.(this is referred to as “bonus cushion”

    DrySaddle and Nurse, not so much.

    I’ll dig up the relevant part of the CBA.

    This.

    I miss cap geek as it correctly pointed this out with just a glance.

    The only caveat is if you do spent to the max on base salary and the players hit their bonuses the cushion gets tacked on to next year’s cap as a penalty.

    This is true for rookies and vets with performance bonus contracts. This is part of the problem Boston had to deal with the Iginla deal the year before.

    Have to keep an eye on next year as well.

  26. Halfwise says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    I’m feeling so bullish these days. I can even visualize a practical mission statement for this season. Let Eakins ‘chop wood and carry water’ in the WHL. The motto for this season’s squad is ‘No Passengers!’ Sorry Jultz, you don’t fit with the new mission for obvious reasons,

    Notice how it pays subtle homage to the recently deposed Boys on the Bus? ; )

    It made me think of this old Firesign Theatre disc.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Think_We%27re_All_Bozos_on_This_Bus

  27. striatic says:

    Regarding Brent Seabrook:

    No.

    Too old too expensive not good enough.

    Trading assets for 1 year of Bent Seabrook is ridiculous and if the intent is to sign then you can do that next summer in UFAland which is where he’ll want to go anyway.

    Better fit for Seabrook is a team making a cup push next year.

    The Oilers need a guy 4-5 years younger and progressing rapidly. Like I dunno Jeff Petry : [

    Cheap, Good, Young, pick 2 – Seabrook only covers one base, maybe. Oilers need to make a better bet.

  28. thejonrmcleod says:

    I would think the Oilers could sign a RW for a reasonable amount with the following sales pitch: “How would you like the chance to play on a line with Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid?”

  29. Adam Wu says:

    I was watching that special interest piece on SN last night on the Blackhawks in the decade before 2007, and it was like déjà vu for the Oil since 2006. Meddling owner, old-boys-club management, under performing roster, eventual fan tune out, with the only positive being a bevy of high draft picks over several years. And then Old Wirz died, new management with experience brought in, obc’ers evicted from coach and gm and competent replacements, and now they have a perennial WC powerhouse. It sort of puts a lot of things about the Oilers now and in the recent past in perspective.

  30. Pajamah says:

    Here’s the thing I don’t get about the anti-Seabrook argument.

    He is better than what we have. The Oilers are a home with no roof, and we are arguing over whether we need cedar shakes, or tin sheeting.

    He is better than any defenseman currently on the Oilers roster. He may not be in 3 seasons, and he may be 34 and really expensive.

    I understand if the cost is too high to attain his services, but thats not the point. People are just saying no because he is 30+ and pricey.

    As fans, we are the ugly basement dwellers who wont date a girl because she’s “only an 8”

    C’mon people.

  31. striatic says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I would think the Oilers could sign a RW for a reasonable amount with the following sales pitch: “How would you like the chance to play on a line with Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid?”

    I think a common response would be “call me next year.”

    McDavid hasn’t proven anything yet at the pro level. Not enough for a player to take a discount to play on a non playoff contender anyway.

  32. WeirsBeard says:

    Woodguy:
    It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap.

    You do not have to account for possible bonuses on the cap.

    That was the old CBA.

    You can list McDavid, DrySaddle and Nurse at their base salaries of $925K (NHL rookie max)

    However, it would be prudent to leave space for McDavid to reach all of his bonuses.(this is referred to as “bonus cushion”

    DrySaddle and Nurse, not so much.

    I’ll dig up the relevant part of the CBA.

    Well, the Oilers are owed at least one bonus Calder winner, right? So they should try to account for that in the bonuses.

    But yeah good point, and I’m guessing some of the rookie bonuses cancel each other out.

  33. Captain Smarmy says:

    Adam Wu:
    I was watching that special interest piece on SN last night on the Blackhawks in the decade before 2007, and it was like déjà vu for the Oil since 2006. Meddling owner, old-boys-club management, under performing roster, eventual fan tune out, with the only positive being a bevy of high draft picks over several years. And then Old Wirz died, new management with experience brought in, obc’ers evicted from coach and gm and competent replacements, and now they have a perennial WC powerhouse. It sort of puts a lot of things about the Oilers now and in the recent past in perspective.

    Some similarities but the big difference is edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers or losing hope. It came close but Chicago forgot the blackhawks. Edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers. Its just that the Oilers didn’t love them.

  34. Adam Wu says:

    I for one would like to see how Shultz performs with good coaching and an atmosphere of accountability. I wouldn’t flush him until the year the Oilers really honestly think they have a realistic chance at contending and they need the cap space for an immediate push and the player still hasn’t turned it around.

    If you dump him for nothing now, and he goes elsewhere, gets that atmosphere of accountability and coaching, he has the potential make you look really foolish for giving up on him.

  35. striatic says:

    Pajamah,

    There are plenty of 8s that make more sense for the Oilers. Big contract on aging Defense can ruin a team for years.

  36. Pajamah says:

    Captain Smarmy: Some similarities but the big difference is edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers or losing hope. It came close but Chicago forgot the blackhawks. Edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers. Its just that the Oilers didn’t love them.

    So the Chi fans and team divorced and got remarried (to Wirtz’ son, Oedipus complex maybe?)

    The Oiler fans enabled the teams Macphetamine habit, and the team wouldn’t get clean until it absolutely hit rock bottom. The love never left.

  37. Traktor says:

    Chicago doesn’t need to move Seabrook.I like Doughty and Subban too.

    Worse is thinking they would move him for Marincin + or other spare parts.

  38. Genjutsu says:

    Pajamah,

    I think the thinking is he is only going to effective for the cap hit next year.

    Gregor has an excellent post framing the issue over at ON.

    If he does want 8 x 8 that becomes a boat sinker when this team should be a contender.

  39. Adam Wu says:

    Pajamah:
    Here’s the thing I don’t get about the anti-Seabrook argument.

    He is better than what we have. The Oilers are a home with no roof, and we are arguing over whether we need cedar shakes, or tin sheeting.

    He is better than any defenseman currently on the Oilers roster. He may not be in 3 seasons, and he may be 34 and really expensive.

    I understand if the cost is too high to attain his services, but thats not the point. People are just saying no because he is 30+ and pricey.

    As fans, we are the ugly basement dwellers who wont date a girl because she’s “only an 8″

    C’mon people.

    Perhaps, but the problem is this home needs more than just a roof. The plumbing’s shot and the foundation’s cracking. You can only commit so much to the roof because you need the assets to address the roof because you need to fix the other things too.

  40. WeirsBeard says:

    Adam Wu:
    I for one would like to see how Shultz performs with good coaching and an atmosphere of accountability. I wouldn’t flush him until the year the Oilers really honestly think they have a realistic chance at contending and they need the cap space for an immediate push and the player still hasn’t turned it around.

    If you dump him for nothing now, and he goes elsewhere, gets that atmosphere of accountability and coaching, he has the potential make you look really foolish for giving up on him.

    I think the reason some folks flush Schultz ahead of Ference and Nikitin, is that his exit cost is zero. Getting rid of one of the other two costs something, be it a draft pick or cap dollars in buy out. You have to factor that in to adding a new defender. And they need to add a better defender than anyone they have now, even for this year.

  41. Visually better says:

    I think instead of talking about buying expensive free agents on term deals, and making trades for aging players this off-season might be unrealistic and counter productive. As many have eluded too, this coming season is most likely going to be an audit more than anything. I’m guessing Chia and Mclellan are on the same page, and they both think its in their best interest to look and see what they have before making any irrational decisions.

    So instead of looking too much into the cap situation and the free agent market this year, lets take a look at what we have signed on for next season….

    FORWARD GROUP: 29.7m (minus 3R, 4C, 4R):
    ………………………………………………………………………….

    Left wing/ Center/ Right wing/
    1L.- Pouliot (4.5m)/ Nuge (6.0m)/ Eberle (6.0m)/
    2L.- Hall (6.0m)/ Mcdavid (.925m)/ Yakupov (2.5m)/
    3L. – Draisaitl (.925m)/ Lander (.987m)/ ( ????????? )
    4L. – Hendy (1.85m)/ ( ???????? ) ( ?????????? )

    DEFENSE GROUP: 9.5M EST**(Minus atleast 2 significant additions)
    ………………………………………………………………………………
    1D. – Fayne (.3.62m)/ Oscar Klefbom (3.5m EST**)/
    2D. – Nurse (.925m)/ ( ????? )
    3D. – Marincin (1.5m EST**)/ ( ????? )

    GOALIES: 6m EST**
    ………………………………………………………………………………
    1G. – Niemi (4.5m EST**)

    2G. ( ???? )
    ……………………………………………………………………………

    CAP HIT: 43.7m (allocated to 14 roster spots)
    (FORWARDS:.. 29.7M)
    (DEFENSE:.. 9.5m)
    (GOALIE: .. 4.5m_

    So lets say this year is a wash, other than a niemi signing, and chia decides he wants to let his contracts hes stuck with play out (Nikitin, Purcell, Gordon, Schultz, Scrivens, Klinkhammer, Gazdic etc….) and a one year buyout on Ference (1m???). So 43.7M with a need for a 3rd line Right wing, 4th line Center, 4th line right wing, 2 significant defenseman (minimum), and a back up goalie.

    For fun, lets assume the cap will be 73m. That leaves us with 29.3m to spend in 2016/2017.

    Some free agents in 2016 that could shake loose via trade or free agency coming into the 2016 season on my wish list?? We’re all welcome to dream up a roster with the addition of some of these guys.. enjoy

    Milan Lucic
    Keith Yandle
    Brent Seabrook
    Ryan O’Rielly
    Michael Grabner
    Jared Spurgeon
    Brayden Shenn
    Alex Killorn
    Dustin Byfuglien

  42. Adam Wu says:

    Captain Smarmy: Some similarities but the big difference is edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers or losing hope. It came close but Chicago forgot the blackhawks. Edmonton never stopped loving the Oilers. Its just that the Oilers didn’t love them.

    The sense I got this year and last was that the Oiler fans were finally about to reach their limit. If not for McDavid and the changes that followed, if things can gone BAU instead, I think a Chicago-style tune-out was at most 2-3 years away.

  43. raventalon40 says:

    raventalon40:
    I’m surprised Eric Roy idn’t get signed? He’s got pretty good boxcars for a junior D (to say nothing of the player, I’ve never seen him play).

    Talent Analysis

    Eric Roy is a versatile defender that can provide solid defense, offensive production, physical play, and drop the gloves if necessary. Skating with NHL prospect Ryan Pulock during much of his junior career, he consistently contributed offensively from the back end. At the same time Roy provides leadership and stability from the blue line. His skating and overall technical skills are average and will need to continue to improve for him to compete at the pro level.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/eric-roy/

    I’d invite him to camp!

  44. Pouzar says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: Please no more talk of Seabrook. He’s the third best defenceman on his team. Will be 31 next season. And reportedly his camp is seeking 8×8. You read that right 8 years at $8m per. Cap cancer.

    Thank you.

  45. Pajamah says:

    striatic:
    Pajamah,

    There are plenty of 8s that make more sense for the Oilers. Big contract on aging Defense can ruin a team for years.

    I don’t disagree, but how many 8’s are available for picks/prospects. an 8 by average would be a top pairing guy. Not enough of them going around for 30 teams, let alone made available.

    And thats not to say Chicago wants him to be available, but might have to rid themselves of the salary. Thats why he would be cheaper than his peers. Bouwmeester, Kulikov, Shattenkirk, Myers, etc. would all be much more expensive to acquire, even with lower cap hits (potentially, I dont know what any of the above make and am too lazy to look it up)

    Yes, in a perfect world, the Oilers target the perfect players, but again, as a fan, would be happy with the really good option as opposed to the perfect option. Just no more bets on Nikitin, Barker, Below, Grebeshkov types. Get good players, keep good players.

    Don’t cut off your Glencross to spite your Hossa. Or something like that.

  46. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The interesting thing about the reduced cap is that it will likely drive down the price of mid pack players. We argued about Derek Roy pre lottery win, I was in the camp of signing him but only for less than 1.5 million. Some were suggesting as much as 2.5 million.

    Roy runs a very real risk of not being signed by anyone next year, as teams near the cap fill the lower end of their roster with cheaper young players. I firmly believe guys like Roy will end up taking $1million contracts just to stay in the league.

    These are the players we need, they give us the space to buy out a guy like Nikitin (whoever the D version of Roy is). Signing a decent veteran or two for really cheap should be a priority this summer, and in all likelihood it will happen several weeks past July 1.

  47. WeirsBeard says:

    Traktor:
    Chicago doesn’t need to move Seabrook.I like Doughty and Subban too.

    Worse is thinking they would move him for Marincin + or other spare parts.

    Agreed. You should be able to get only their depth forwards (Bickell etc) for scrap and change. But they still need a defender to play Seabrook’s minutes. They barely have enough D with him.

  48. Pajamah says:

    Adam Wu: Perhaps, but the problem is this home needs more than just a roof. The plumbing’s shot and the foundation’s cracking. You can only commit so much to the roof because you need the assets to address the roof because you need to fix the other things too.

    Fair. If acquiring Seabrook prevents them from addressing 4D, 3LW, and 1G, then I’m all for passing on him. I doubt it would though.

  49. Woodguy says:

    2013 CBA

    Section 50.5 (g)(ii)

    “A Club shall e permitted to have an Averaged Club Salary in excess of the Upper Limit resulting from Performance Bonuses soley to the extent that such excess results from the inclusion in Averaged Club Salary of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual “A” Performance Bonuses and “B” Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earn by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.1(b)(i)(C) above, provided that under no circumstances may a Club’s Averaged Club Salary so exceed the Upper Limit by an amount greater than the result of seven-and-one-half (7.5) percent muliplied by the Upper Limit (the “Performance Bonus Cushion”)

    So if the cap is 71MM, then the cushion is 5.325MM

    Given that either Nurse or Draisaitl will probably only hit games played bonuses and not point/ward bonues, the Oilers can comfortably go over the cap by $5.325MM when including those players.

    I would assume McDavid hits all of his bonuses.

    I wrote earlier that you only have to account for the actual salary. That isn’t really true, but in practice it amounts to the same thing, so I just said that as shorthand.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    2013 CBA

    Section 50.5 (g)(ii)

    “A Club shall e permitted to have an Averaged Club Salary in excess of the Upper Limit resulting from Performance Bonuses soley to the extent that such excess results from the inclusion in Averaged Club Salary of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual “A” Performance Bonuses and “B” Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earn by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.1(b)(i)(C) above, provided that under no circumstances may a Club’s Averaged Club Salary so exceed the Upper Limit by an amount greater than the result of seven-and-one-half (7.5) percent muliplied by the Upper Limit (the “Performance Bonus Cushion”)

    So if the cap is 71MM, then the cushion is 5.325MM

    Given that either Nurse or Draisaitl will probably only hit games played bonuses and not point/ward bonues, the Oilers can comfortably go over the cap by $5.325MM when including those players.

    I would assume McDavid hits all of his bonuses.

    I wrote earlier that you only have to account for the actual salary.That isn’t really true, but in practice it amounts to the same thing, so I just said that as shorthand.

    The reason I included the cap hit is that if you don’t apply it this year, then it moves to next season (when one assumes the cap will be dear). Is this correct?

  51. Adam Wu says:

    WeirsBeard: I think the reason some folks flush Schultz ahead of Ference and Nikitin, is that his exit cost is zero. Getting rid of one of the other two costs something, be it a draft pick or cap dollars in buy out. You have to factor that in to adding a new defender. And they need to add a better defender than anyone they have now, even for this year.

    But the exit cost is not zero. The exit cost is the potential loss of his services if he does turn it around, and years of him playing for an opposing team, lighting you up, if he turns it around. Nikitin and Ference, on the other hand, do not have any significant upside potential. There is zero chance that the scenario of Ference being dumped by the Oil and then signing with, say, the Canucks or Flames, would be one the Oil would come to regret Ron a repeated basis. There is a very real prospect that such a scenario could happen with Jultz.

    When you give up on a prospect prematurely, you are not only giving up on his potential, you a giving away his potential to all your opponents in the rest of the league. For free.

    Plus there is the possibility that an improved Shultz becomes one of those better defenders that you need, by lieu having the right coaching and development, as early as next year. This is a man who lit up the AHL without breaking a sweat. There is a player there.

  52. Optimism is like heroin says:

    instead of buying out Nikitin …..
    if we moved nikitin + pick for future considerations from a cap floor team
    what round would that pick have to be?

    I have to think that a 3rd would be worth it to free that 4.5 million and bring in a different free agent like Sekera.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: The reason I included the cap hit is that if you don’t apply it this year, then it moves to next season (when one assumes the cap will be dear). Is this correct?

    Yes, but only if:

    1) The bonus is actually achieved (in reality most are not)

    2) The addition of the bonus to the contract puts you over the cap

    That is why I account for McDavid for his full $3.45MM. He’ll probably hit every bonus.

    Drai & Nurse will probably only hit games played/TOI bonuses which don’t amount to a pile of dough.

  54. Marc says:

    Lowetide: The reason I included the cap hit is that if you don’t apply it this year, then it moves to next season (when one assumes the cap will be dear). Is this correct?

    Only if they hit their bonuses – which Nurse and Draisatl almost certainly won’t, especially if they spend any time in the AHL at the beginning.

    You can quite comfortably pencil them in at a cap hit of actual salary + plus 425K (for hitting two bonuses) and be about 95% certain that no penalty would roll into next season.

  55. Pouzar says:

    Seabrook WOWY 2014/15:

    With Keith: 55.2% (TOI: 697 min)
    Without Keith: 49.2% (TOI: 677 min)

    ———————————————————
    Keith WOWY 2014/15:

    Without Seabrook: 56.5% (TOI: 778 min)

  56. Traktor says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    instead of buying out Nikitin …..
    if we moved nikitin + pick for future considerations from a cap floor team
    what round would that pick have to be?

    I have to think that a 3rd would be worth it to free that 4.5 million and bring in a different free agent like Sekera.

    I really don’t like the idea of giving away picks for cap space. Part of me likes being close to the cap because you need to me smart with your money. The chances of Edmonton signing a big free agent via free agency and not regretting it in 1-2 years us pretty slim IMO.

    Now if they have limited room and agents know that then the chances of getting a fair deal is much greater.

    Obviously I’d rather have a great deal of cap space… I’m just not paying draft picks to acquire it.

  57. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar,

    So you’re saying that Seabrook will need Schultz to be better next year?

  58. Marc says:

    WeirsBeard: I think the reason some folks flush Schultz ahead of Ference and Nikitin, is that his exit cost is zero. Getting rid of one of the other two costs something, be it a draft pick or cap dollars in buy out. You have to factor that in to adding a new defender. And they need to add a better defender than anyone they have now, even for this year.

    Except if he turns into a decent (or better) NHL player. Which he could well do, given that he’s only 200 games into his NHL career and NHL D often take a few seasons before the game really slows down for them.

    People on here still bitch about losing guys like Glencross or Brodziak for nothing. Giving up on Schultz for a couple million in cap space, for a single season only, when there are half a dozen other ways that space could be obtained without giving up a developing player, has the potential to blow those decisions out of the water on the scale of stupid asset management.

  59. commonfan14 says:

    striatic: There are plenty of 8s that make more sense for the Oilers. Big contract on aging Defense can ruin a team for years.

    It will be interesting to watch how the Boychuk deal impacts the Isles long-term.

  60. WeirsBeard says:

    Adam Wu: But the exit cost is not zero. The exit cost is the potential loss of his services if he does turn it around, and years of him playing for an opposing team, lighting you up, if he turns it around. Nikitin and Ference, on the other hand, do not have any significant upside potential. There is zero chance that the scenario of Ference being dumped by the Oil and then signing with, say, the Canucks or Flames, would be one the Oil would come to regret Ron a repeated basis. There is a very real prospect that such a scenario could happen with Jultz.

    When you give up on a prospect prematurely, you are not only giving up on his potential, you a giving away his potential to all your opponents in the rest of the league. For free.

    Plus there is the possibility that an improved Shultz becomes one of those better defenders that you need, by lieu having the right coaching and development, as early as next year. This is a man who lit up the AHL without breaking a sweat. There is a player there.

    Agreed he is really the only one of the three that can realistically improve. And that there is lost development in giving him away. But you don’t have to pay a cap penalty to let him walk. That’s why some think it is a good idea. Not defending the idea necessarily, just explaining the logic.

  61. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Dean Kukan has officially signed with the Blue Jackets.

  62. Adam Wu says:

    Sometimes I think all this speculation about trades and FAs is putting the cart before the horse, from an analytics standpoint. What we should be doing is doing a RE on the current roster unchanged except for in house additions (ie McD, Drai, Nurse, etc) in light of the new coaching regime. How much improvement would we expect from that alone? Would it be enough to count as satisfactory progress?

    After that you consider what you can add with money alone, without giving up any assets. What lower cost FAs you could get on short term contracts, and how much improvement you could expect with them, and would that be satisfactory 1 year progress.

    Because next year Nikitin comes off the books for free, and perhaps you can even flip him for a draft pick at the deadline, plus all the stopgap FAs you signed this year can similarly be flipped, and you have a clearer picture who how the roster is or isn’t working under the TMac regime, and THEN you go to town with the big moves.

    In terms of assets and dollars, this is the most efficient way to proceed. The cost is time to the tune of 1 year.

    Are you willing to wait one more year?

  63. WeirsBeard says:

    Marc: Except if he turns into a decent (or better) NHL player. Which he could well do, given that he’s only 200 games into his NHL career and NHL D often take a few seasons before the game really slows down for them.

    People on here still bitch about losing guys like Glencross or Brodziak for nothing. Giving up on Schultz for a couple million in cap space, for a single season only, when there are half a dozen other ways that space could be obtained without giving up a developing player, has the potential to blow those decisions out of the water on the scale of stupid asset management.

    Personally I’m wary of giving up on developing defense. Especially if they can skate. I was just trying to explain the mindset of walking Schultz vs others.

  64. Pouzar says:

    Adam Wu: Sometimes I think all this speculation about trades and FAs is putting the cart before the horse, from an analytics standpoint. What we should be doing is doing a RE on the current roster unchanged except for in house additions (ie McD, Drai, Nurse, etc) in light of the new coaching regime. How much improvement would we expect from that alone? Would it be enough to count as satisfactory progress?After that you consider what you can add with money alone, without giving up any assets. What lower cost FAs you could get on short term contracts, and how much improvement you could expect with them, and would that be satisfactory 1 year progress.Because next year Nikitin comes off the books for free, and perhaps you can even flip him for a draft pick at the deadline, plus all the stopgap FAs you signed this year can similarly be flipped, and you have a clearer picture who how the roster is or isn’t working under the TMac regime, and THEN you go to town with the big moves.In terms of assets and dollars, this is the most efficient way to proceed. The cost is time to the tune of 1 year.Are you willing to wait one more year?

    I think that is a very sound strategy. I know after 9 years it’s a tough pill to swallow but……..

  65. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Traktor,

    with a 3rd round pick making it as a regular only approx 12% of the time ….

    think about it a different way, would you trade a 3rd round pick for sekera on a 4 x 4.5m contract straight up?

  66. Pouzar says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Pouzar, So you’re saying that Seabrook will need Schultz to be better next year?

    Yes. Schultz will need to be better. 🙂

  67. Hammers says:

    Not saying the Oilers will make some trades so this is guesswork by me but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Purcell and Gordon gone this year and before Christmas let alone Nikitin and that’s $12 mill in total . Is there a team who would take Nikitin and a 3rd rd pick for a Pick in 2017 . Gordon’s tradeable . Buy out Purcell . All of a sudden we have cap space for 2 “D” @ about $5 mill each . Nurse , Leon both draw in . It is doable if you make those changes . .

  68. jake70 says:

    Agreed on Schultz LT. Something about you can’t have all your D making 4M…recall a wise man who said that. Maybe give him a show-me deal of max 2 years at 2.5M per, and that’s only assuming you have brought at least one guy to push everyone down the pecking order on D. His camp laughs at that? – see ya.

  69. nelson88 says:

    Marc: Only if they hit their bonuses – which Nurse and Draisatl almost certainly won’t, especially if they spend any time in the AHL at the beginning.
    You can quite comfortably pencil them in at a cap hit of actual salary + plus 425K (for hitting two bonuses) and be about 95% certain that no penalty would roll into next season

    Are the bonus hurdles predetermined league wide and if so where can I find them? I always assumed they were individually negotiated but perhaps that is for vets and not players on ELC’s?

  70. dustrock says:

    Someone mentioned The Blueprint.

    This is not the year for radical moves. For the first time, we’ve got a competent GM and a competent coach who will be able to give us the most accurate roster assessment we’ve had in ages.

    Getting a contract extension like Seabrook’s would be crippling, no matter how much he would improve our defence for 2-3 years.

    Goalies are always available, every single year. Don’t break the bank. Scrivens will improve, get your Talbot, Bernier, Anderson, even Ramo, and you’re fine.

    The object is not to win the Cup or even make the playoffs next year, the object is to ensure this roster is set for as long as possible with Core A (Hall, Eberle, RNH) and Core B (McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom).

  71. Marc says:

    nelson88: Are the bonus hurdles predetermined league wide and if so where can I find them? I always assumed they were individually negotiated but perhaps that is for vets and not players on ELC’s?

    No, they are set in the CBA for rookies.

    You can see a summary here: http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

  72. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    jake70: Maybe give him a show-me deal of max 2 years at 2.5M per

    Can’t do that. There are rules for qualifying him, and I believe he has to be given at least what he made last season. The best they can do, is take him to arbitration for reducing his salary, which is messy, and the team must agree to accept whatever the arb process determines.

    Take Jultz’ comments at his exit interview to heart, and hope that he follows through on them. Give him a real coach, and maybe some depth on the blueline to push him down a bit, and then see what you’ve got.

  73. Ducey says:

    Marc: Except if he turns into a decent (or better) NHL player. Which he could well do, given that he’s only 200 games into his NHL career and NHL D often take a few seasons before the game really slows down for them.

    People on here still bitch about losing guys like Glencross or Brodziak for nothing. Giving up on Schultz for a couple million in cap space, for a single season only, when there are half a dozen other ways that space could be obtained without giving up a developing player, has the potential to blow those decisions out of the water on the scale of stupid asset management.

    Agreed.

    Giving up on Schultz right now would be a poor decision. A new coach, some sort of continuity in systems, more experience and an overall better team has a decent chance of helping him improve significantly.

    He has the tools, he just has not learned to use them. You get rid of players like that at a very high risk.

    As mentioned by others, the plan on D likely is:

    1) to see what they have in Schultz and Marincin,
    2) let Nurse spend half a season on the farm
    3) burn off Nikitin’s year and perhaps flip him at the deadline
    4) use up a year of Ference’s contract before buying him out next year
    5) adding a UFA to add to Klefbom and Fayne

  74. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Yes, but only if:

    1) The bonus is actually achieved (in reality most are not)

    2) The addition of the bonus to the contract puts you over the cap

    That is why I account for McDavid for his full $3.45MM.He’ll probably hit every bonus.

    Drai & Nurse will probably only hit games played/TOI bonuses which don’t amount to a pile of dough.

    Excellent. That’s how I understood it. The idea of Leon spending some time in the AHL (to make those bonuses a distant bell) has real appeal.

  75. blainer says:

    I can live with one more year of NN.. They just cannot play all three of FSN in any one game.. Actually I really don’t want to see Shultz and Ference playing in the same game at all.. NN’s size does help but in the western Conf you just cannot play Ference and Shultz.. One is too small and the other is to soft but can at least bring some offence. I would actually be Ok if we kept NN and waived Ference to the minors to save 1 million on the cap and then bought him out next year.. We will know what we have with Shultz by then as well.. We need to play MM or Davidson before Ference..

  76. nelson88 says:

    Marc: No, they are set in the CBA for rookies.

    You can see a summary here: http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

    Interesting. Thanks.

    Given that Schedule A’s max out at $850,000 and the schedule B bonus is individually negotiated I think we have to be careful making too sweeping of statements about Nurse or Drai not meeting them. Having said that it is probably fair to assume a significant portion, if not all, of a low draft picks schedule B bonus is for a Calder trophy and while we have three young studs only one can win.

    I’m sure we’d gladly take the cap hit next year if Nurse wins the Norris, Drai wins the Selke and McJesus takes the Calder and the Hart. 😉

  77. Halfwise says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Can’t do that. There are rules for qualifying him, and I believe he has to be given at least what he made last season. The best they can do, is take him to arbitration for reducing his salary, which is messy, and the team must agree to accept whatever the arb process determines.

    Take Jultz’ comments at his exit interview to heart, and hope that he follows through on them. Give him a real coach, and maybe some depth on the blueline to push him down a bit, and then see what you’ve got.

    I disagree.

    The rules you refer to are for qualifying offers and making a qualifying offer then opens the door to arbitration. It could go either way, for reasons LT explains in his posting.

    Don’t make a qualifying offer. Tell Schultz he will be a UFA, and here is the Oilers’ UFA offer, $2.25 x 3 or whatever. If he declines, he declines and is a UFA. If he accepts, he will be a UFA for a nanosecond and then becomes the first UFA signing as soon as the window opens.

  78. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Halfwise: Don’t make a qualifying offer.

    Interesting strategy. Do you know that this is legal, under the CBA? Because it seems to be circumventing the RFA qualifying rules.

    Has there ever been another team that has tried this?

  79. Melman says:

    Curious of what others think: Van. is in deep with Cap trouble and have to likely choose between Lack and Markstrom, and appear to be open to moving Lack.

    If Edm. were make an offer for Lack and Higgins it might soften the blow of what you’d have to pay for Lack. Higgins (who admittedly didn’t look great last year) has 2 years left at 2.5 and he’d have to waive his NTC – man did Gillis hand those out like candy – but it gives them a vet 3L and with Purcell and NN in their last year, having to eat an extra year of Higgins at 2.5 isn’t completely horrible if it gets you a starting goalie.

  80. Henry says:

    Traktor:
    Chicago doesn’t need to move Seabrook.I like Doughty and Subban too.

    Worse is thinking they would move him for Marincin + or other spare parts.

    Bickell and Sharp each have a modified NTC though I don’t know the terms. Even if Chicago can move Bickell and Sharp without taking back any salaried players (which I doubt) they would then have $14M of cap space to sign 4 defensemen and six forwards.

    Saad could get an offer sheet from Nashville or Minnesota.

  81. Ducey says:

    •Walk away from (or trade) Justin Schultz. I know it seems severe but the chances of Schultz covering the cost on $4M (or so) is not a good bet.

    Where does the $4 million come from?

    The Oilers can qualify Schultz at the same salary he made last year ($3.675M) – or even 85% of it.

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/5/28/chiarelli-and-rfas

  82. Klima's_Bucket says:

    blainer: I would actually be Ok if we kept NN and waived Ference to the minors to save 1 million on the cap and then bought him out next year..

    For the umpteenth time.
    Ference can not be sent to the minors because he has NMC.

  83. Ducey says:

    Halfwise: I disagree.

    The rules you refer to are for qualifying offers and making a qualifying offer then opens the door to arbitration. It could go either way, for reasons LT explains in his posting.

    Don’t make a qualifying offer. Tell Schultz he will be a UFA, and here is the Oilers’ UFA offer, $2.25 x 3 or whatever. If he declines, he declines and is a UFA. If he accepts, he will be a UFA for a nanosecond and then becomes the first UFA signing as soon as the window opens.

    I don’t agree the Oilers should let Schultz walk, but lets say they did want to. Why would they just let him walk in June? That is the worst possible outcome.

    The Oilers could likely trade him for some sort of return.

    Or they could qualify him at 85% of his salary (so about $3.0 M). They would then go to arbitration. If he is overpaid as everyone thinks he is, then they should win. If not successful they could walk then, couldn’t they?

    Odds are they would likely come to some sort of deal along the way anyway.

  84. G Money says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Interesting strategy. Do you know that this is legal, under the CBA? Because it seems to be circumventing the RFA qualifying rules.

    I don’t think so. The whole point of the QO is that it forces a team to make a certain level of offer to an RFA. If they don’t, the player becomes a UFA. That’s the ‘cost’ of choosing not to make a QO. You’ve lost the rights to that player for nothing.

    At that point, it’s a free for all, and the player gets what the player gets on the free market (which may or may not be better than what was previously on offer).

    Unlike with waivers and buyouts, I don’t think there are any restrictions on the team or the player at that point – someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

  85. russ99 says:

    Ducey: I don’t agree the Oilers should let Schultz walk, but lets say they did want to.Why would they just let him walk in June?That is the worst possible outcome.

    The Oilers could likely trade him for some sort of return.

    Or they could qualify him at 85% of his salary (so about $3.0 M).They would then go to arbitration. If he is overpaid as everyone thinks he is, then they should win. If not successful they could walk then, couldn’t they?

    Odds are they would likely come to some sort of deal along the way anyway.

    If the Oilers walk away from Schultz without qualifying him at 3-3.25 and keep both financially and on-ice boat-anchors Nikitin (4.5) and Ference (3.25) then our new management is just as boneheaded as the old management,

    And under this cap, it’s so important to have room that trading picks should be in play to move them.

  86. Rational Zealot says:

    The plan going forward should be the same whether you are trying to win in the short term or the long term. Make value bets everytime, and hope for the best.

    A rational plan might look something like this:

    1) Avoid Seabrook like the plague. Any plan that involves Seabrook has a zero percent chance at workiing.

    2) Trade Boyd Gordon for assets, preferably the (not proven) goalie you want. Gordon for Lack would be dreamy.

    3) Do not acquire a proven goalie. It is axiomatic that the cost of the proof is higher than the value of the proof.

    4) Sign the best mid-tier free agent (s) you can within your budget.

    5) Target cap crunched teams but don’t take the guy they want you to take and don’t overpay. This means the Rangers but don’t overpay for Marc Staal and don’t pay anything for Dan Girardi.

    6) If you could trade the #16 (or Yakupov) for one of Nashville’s young D, or trade Eberle for Justin Faulk, do it without thinking twice about it.

    Follow these rules and the best case scenario is adding something like Staal, Lack, and Sekera in the offseason. That is the best that can be done. If #6 happens, you might actually be in business.

  87. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    It also suggests the club can’t afford both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s bonuses toward the cap.

    You do not have to account for possible bonuses on the cap.

    That was the old CBA.

    You can list McDavid, DrySaddle and Nurse at their base salaries of $925K (NHL rookie max)

    However, it would be prudent to leave space for McDavid to reach all of his bonuses.(this is referred to as “bonus cushion”

    I never did compare the wording side by side between the CBA’s, so this could be mistaken, but my understanding was that nothing materially changed with how bonuses were treated in the new CBA, however capgeek did change how they presented the info.

    Couple other thoughts, although I’m by no means a expert on this stuff as this isn’t really the kind of detailed CBA material I’ve ever really worked through – it would be hard to know how this works without having worked for a team or talked to someone who does in that capacity. Take what follows with a grain of salt.:

    (1) If Nurse, McDavid, and Draisaitl are on the roster, not sure EDM will be able to spend right to the cap because their combined bonuses are more than the expected allowable overage amount.

    (2) Injuries are a factor if you get close to the cap with a potential bonus overage, because of how the cap is calculated it wouldn’t be unimaginable to see every bonus dollar earned have to go against the 16/17 cap if you had significant injuries and started the year at or even somewhat near the cap.

  88. Clay says:

    I’ll preface this by saying I have zero backup for this anecdote…

    The Fan 960 in Cgy was interviewing one of the Blackhawks broadcasters during the conference finals. The topic turned to Patrick Sharp, and how well he was playing. The Chicago broadcaster began by saying that Sharp is motivated as this is his last run with the team. They can’t afford him and the Blackhawks have already communicated to his agent that they will be trading him in the offseason.

    This makes total sense, as Seabrook’s value to the ‘Hawks is much greater than Sharp’s. They don’t need to trade both. I think discussion around the possiblility of the Oilers aquiring Seabrook is moot. He’s going nowhere.

  89. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Melman:
    Curious of what others think:Van. is in deep with Cap trouble and have to likely choose between Lack and Markstrom, and appear to be open to moving Lack.

    If Edm. were make an offer for Lack and Higgins it might soften the blow of what you’d have to pay for Lack.Higgins (who admittedly didn’t look great last year) has 2 years left at 2.5 and he’d have to waive his NTC – man did Gillis hand those out like candy – but it gives them a vet 3L and with Purcell and NN in their last year, having to eat an extra year of Higgins at 2.5 isn’t completely horrible if it gets you a starting goalie.

    Interesting idea. I really like the idea of obtaining Lack. I think that the extra contract may knock his cost down but even if it doesn’t a 2nd is decent value. He doesn’t look as good as Schneider was but he seems like he could be at least an average+ starter. Haven’t seen enough of Higgins but his numbers look decent, he’s got average size and 2.5 is loads better then 4.5 we’re paying Purcell for a similar role. How is his 2-way play? Is he someone we could use on the PK or rely on to be the defensive player for his line?

  90. Halfwise says:

    russ99: If the Oilers walk away from Schultz without qualifying him at3-3.25 and keep both financially and on-ice boat-anchors Nikitin (4.5) and Ference (3.25) then our new management is just as boneheaded as the old management,

    And under this cap, it’s so important to have room that trading picks should be in play to move them.

    If you can trade Jultz, trade him. But trades have a value, and in Jultz’ case the value is low because he has to be signed to a new contract immediately. So why would a team give up an asset when they could get him for free in a few weeks as a UFA?

    There’s broad consensus here that NSF have negative value as a set of roster players. Ference may choose to retire, but as far as we know he is here for two more years. Nikitin costs more than he is worth and his trade value is low. Could be a buyout candidate, or a trade candidate with a tiny return.

    Whatever is done with Jultz will be a gamble. Let him walk and have him burn the Oilers when suddenly he figures out NHL hockey on another team. Keep him at $3.X million and give him all the O zone starts you’d rather have given Nurse or Ference or some other weak link.

    “Boneheaded” will be revealed when whatever path is chosen ends up looking bad. But as of today, we don’t know which path that will be or how it will turn out. Too soon to say, but for sure letting Jultz walk frees up a 50 man spot and $3.X million for some other player. There are trade strategies where that makes more sense than having Jultz on the roster.

  91. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Clay:
    I’ll preface this by saying I have zero backup for this anecdote…

    The Fan 960 in Cgy was interviewing one of the Blackhawks broadcasters during the conference finals.The topic turned to Patrick Sharp, and how well he was playing.The Chicago broadcaster began by saying that Sharp is motivated as this is his last run with the team.They can’t afford him and the Blackhawks have already communicated to his agent that they will be trading him in the offseason.

    This makes total sense, as Seabrook’s value to the ‘Hawks is much greater than Sharp’s.They don’t need to trade both.I think discussion around the possiblility of the Oilers aquiring Seabrook is moot.He’s going nowhere.

    Chicago seems to be continuing to buy into their philosophy of building around and paying their core, to the exclusion of all else. They understand that secondary players, even very good ones, must as often as possible be value contracts or else they aren’t worth having. This is in line with their release of Andrew Ladd, Big Buff et. al. following their first cup run.

    Seabrook is likely part of that group, and they will likely do what they can to keep him around at a decent salary. They will fill out their 3rd and 4th lines, and depth D, with cheaper pieces.

    Perhaps no two moves surprised me as much (given historical propensity for avoiding this mistake) than the long term and expensive contracts to Crawford and Howard. Both clubs have been historically willing not to overpay for good-not-great goaltending, and yet they both made these moves around the same time.

    I think Chicago has corrected back to focusing on key pieces. I think Detroit is likewise seeing the mistake for what it is.

  92. Yak2 says:

    No thank you to Brian Elliot.

    Trade Scrivens and a pick to CAR for Cam Ward
    Sign Michal Neuvirth in FA

    Trade Nikitin and Purcell

    Out of those un-signed 2013 picks, I’d go after Myles Bell. A defenseman converted to forward could be a diamond in the rough.

  93. stush18 says:

    Rational Zealot:
    The plan going forward should be the same whether you are trying to win in the short term or the long term.Make value bets everytime, and hope for the best.

    A rational plan might look something like this:

    1) Avoid Seabrook like the plague.Any plan that involves Seabrook has a zero percent chance at workiing.

    2) Trade Boyd Gordon for assets, preferably the (not proven) goalie you want.Gordon for Lack would be dreamy.

    3) Do not acquire a proven goalie.It is axiomatic that the cost of the proof is higher than the value of the proof.

    4) Sign the best mid-tier free agent (s) you can within your budget.

    5) Target cap crunched teams but don’t take the guy they want you to take and don’t overpay.This means the Rangers but don’t overpay for Marc Staal and don’t pay anything for Dan Girardi.

    6) If you could trade the #16 (or Yakupov) for one of Nashville’s young D, or trade Eberle for Justin Faulk, do it without thinking twice about it.

    Follow these rules and the best case scenario is adding something like Staal, Lack, and Sekera in the offseason.That is the best that can be done.If #6 happens, you might actually be in business.

    Thats not a rationale plan. Thats a “I hope this happens someday plan”

    1) if you could get seabrook for marincin straight across, do it. Worse comes to worse, you trade him the following year. That wont happen obviously, so talk of seabrook is likely moot.

    2) Nugent-hopkins is our only proven centreman. Gordon is an elite shutdown centerman, although he comes with very little offense. There is no replacement on the market this year, other then goc, and the chances of signing him are slim.

    3) Anderson is proven. Im assuming he would cost a 2nd and chase or something along those lines. Why would we not do that.

    4) agreed, but that should be the plan every year should it not?

    5) agreed, but again, that should always be the plan?

    6) yes, but that not going to happen. Carolina has a defense similar to us, and faulk is a top 30 dman on a value contract. The only way we get anything of value from nashville is if we move drai for jones. Yak is too unproven still, and has too much potential to be moved for nothing, unless you believe there is nothing there, or he is easily replaced.

    The fact is, we are not going to make any big moves until after christmas at least. Chia and Tmac need to see what we have, and as LT’s article points out, we have very little cap space to make actual team-altering moves.

  94. blainer says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: For the umpteenth time.
    Ference can not be sent to the minors because he has NMC.

    Umpteenth time…lol.. mussed of missed all those other times.. That is something I was not aware of. .that No movement includes waivers.. what a stupid contract.. desperate times I guess.. Well just buy him out then and let NN play out his final year..

  95. rickithebear says:

    Players Goal Differential based on 80gm (krueger; Nelson)
    Pouliot 4m (XX; +11) -3 in 14 games w/o Hall; 22gm +8
    RNH 6M (+5; +7) -6 20gm w/o Hall; 19gm +5
    Eberle 6m (-6; +7) -6 20gm w/0 Hall; 24gm +6
    ——————————————–
    Hall 6m (+9; +21)
    Lander .99M (xx; -21) -10 in 14 games w/o Hall; EV 25gm
    Yakupov 2.5M (-7; -31) -10 in 19 games w/o Hall; -7 26gm
    ————————————-
    Hendricks 1.85M (XX;-3)
    Gordon3M (XX;-3)

    Klefbom (XX; -9) -16 in 14gm w/o Hall and 1st comp w/ Schultz; 30gm +9
    Schultz (-29; -14) -16 in 14gm w/o hall and 1st comp w/ Klefbom; 32gm +8
    Fayne (XX; -9)
    Marincin (XX; +3) once Petry gone 19gm +4
    Ference (XX;-17)
    Nikitin (XX;-22) first 8gm +2 then back injury.

  96. stush18 says:

    Yak2:
    No thank you to Brian Elliot.

    Trade Scrivens and a pick to CAR for Cam Ward
    Sign Michal Neuvirth in FA

    Trade Nikitin and Purcell

    Out of those un-signed 2013 picks, I’d go after Myles Bell. A defenseman converted to forward could be a diamond in the rough.

    Trading scrivens and a pick for Cam ward is like trading Scrivens for a more expensive scrivens and then asking if they would like a pick for there trouble.

    Defensemen to forwards are my favorite cuz they usually play with more of an edge.

  97. slopitch says:

    Im not that worried about Seabrooks age. Pronger was 30 when we signed him. Seabrook would be 31. Just dont sign for 8 years. 5-6 is better. I assume if you’re trading for Seabrook, you get a window to talk to him RE an extension. If the terms arent reasonable, then dont pull the trigger.

    Im basically at the point where I dont trade the 16th overall. These picks are so valuable in the cap world plus the draft is deep. In 3 years, CMD is gonna need to get paid and someone will be cut. That 16th overall would be a perfect candidate to fill a roster spot in 3 years.

  98. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Pouzar: Thank you.

    And thank you for digging up the relevant WOWY numbers.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    The CBA needs to provide some form of semi-exemption for drafted players. Otherwise the Oilers are going to have to give away hard tanked assets.

  100. DocFan says:

    This team is an Oil Tanker – the culture and individual performance won’t change immediately. It will take at least a season to turn it around.

    I don’t think it’s prudent to expect a top 15 finish for this team next year. Yes, lots of optimism and hope – McDavid, Nurse, Drai, Kleff as well as Core A (RNH, HALL, Ebs). Realistically thought, McDavid won’t single handedly make the team a playoff contender.

    Next year will be a very important year – Development for the youngest core and teaching the older Core how to win again. The last thing you want to do is make a bunch of drastic changes (Trading for Seabrook for 1 year, walk away from Jultz, etc etc). The prudent thing is to see how the team responds to the new coaching system and GM and not do anything drastic until at least trade deadline – and again this would be based on the standings at the time.

    What is prudent is to fix the glaring issues – another goalie and 1 or 2 top 4 defence man. Then you wait and see what you have and take advantage of all that Cap space in 2016-2017 and the allure of a new Barn.

  101. spoiler says:

    speeds: I never did compare the wording side by side between the CBA’s, so this could be mistaken, but my understanding was that nothing materially changed with how bonuses were treated in the new CBA, however capgeek did change how they presented the info.

    Couple other thoughts, although I’m by no means a expert on this stuff as this isn’t really the kind of detailed CBA material I’ve ever really worked through – it would be hard to know how this works without having worked for a team or talked to someone who does in that capacity.Take what follows with a grain of salt.:

    (1) If Nurse, McDavid, and Draisaitl are on the roster, not sure EDM will be able to spend right to the cap because their combined bonuses are more than the expected allowable overage amount.

    (2) Injuries are a factor if you get close to the cap with a potential bonus overage, because of how the cap is calculated it wouldn’t be unimaginable to see every bonus dollar earned have to go against the 16/17 cap if you had significant injuries and started the year at or even somewhat near the cap.

    Unless I am reading the Capgeek notes wrong (huge caveat), this doesn’t look very likely.

    According to Capgeek a portion of the bonuses are paid by the league and a portion by the team. That portion (the team) is whatever is negotiated above and beyond the standard Schedule B bonuses, up to a maximum of $2M. So along with the $850,000 in Schedule A bonuses the most a team can be on the hook for is $2.85M, assuming the player is getting the full $2M in max extra on Sched B.

    Nurse for example is not. Since his standard bonuses come to $1.35M and his total bonus is $1.713, that means the extra negotiated in is not quite $400k, leaving the Oil on the hook for $1.213 M (850K + 363K). No way do I send Nurse down just to avoid a possible $1.213M and a much more likely less than $850K in bonuses, if he’s one of the best Dmen in camp.

    Accordingly, Drai is a little less than McDavid’s full $2.85M, looking to be $2.475M.

    So worst case scenario (which is impossible), $2.85 + 2.475 + $1.213 = $6.538M

    And on top of it all, which Sched B bonus is negotiated up is a big factor.

    They can’t ALL win the Calder for eg. And it would be incredibly unlikely for all 3 to finish 1-2-3 in voting (WOOOT!) because no way does the writer’s association vote in three players from the same team.

    Did Connor take some extra bonus on the Ross, Hart, Selke or Richard trophies? How likely is he to hit all of these? And if he did negotiate those, it reduces the bonus on the Calder.

    It is likely that all three players negotiated their Sched B excess on winning the Calder, in which case there really is nothing to worry about… Oil will be on the hook for $2.85M max on McDavid, $850K on Drai, and $850K on Nurse.

    Even if they split some of their excess into being a finalist for the Calder, there is little to worry about. Hockey writers spread their votes around.

    (Edit:) Keep in mind too, the Calder only applies to the first “full” season, nor can you win it twice, although they might make an exception for AHJ.

  102. spoiler says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    Please no more talk of Seabrook.He’s the third best defenceman on his team.Will be 31 next season.And reportedly his camp is seeking 8×8.You read that right 8 years at $8m per.Cap cancer.

    Pretty tough for us to acknowledge that number without a source. In other words, I didn’t read that right, lol.

  103. rickithebear says:

    Last 3 years
    Neuvirth .916 Save% 33.9 SH/gm
    Niemi .916 Save% 28.7 SH/gm
    Ramo .912 Save% 29.7 SH/gm
    Linback .902 Save% 30.2 SH/gm
    first 2 of 5yr .914 Save% 29.4 SH/gm

    Ward is .906 Save% facing 28.4 SH/gm
    Talbot .931 Save5 29.0 SH/gm
    Lack .917 Save% 29.1 Sh/gm
    Andersson .921 Save5 32.2 SH/gm
    Elliott .916 Save% 25.9 SH/gm
    Reimer .914 Save% 34.3 SH/gm

    Avg or better % with high shot count is good!

  104. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    spoiler: Pretty tough for us to acknowledge that number without a source. In other words, I didn’t read that right, lol.

    $8 million for 8 years is only possible on an existing team, so lets say he goes UFA… I think 8 million for 7 years is the high side of realisitic (and still too much in my opinion).

    I think it’s safe to say that he’s acknowledged as being a better all around player than Boychuck and worth more on the market, at approximately the same age. That’s the comp he will be using and I’m certain someone in the league will agree to pay him at least 7 million dollars per year, likely for 7 years.

    I would prefer that not be the Oilers, as much as I like the player. I’m comfortable signing a 28 year old for 7 years, but a 31 year old (especially one that has played as many playoff games as Seabrook has) is simply too old to sign that long.

    No sense talking about signing him for 4 or 5 years, he won’t take it. He will ask for 7 years and he will get it.

  105. Pouzar says:

    “Two different sources told me if he leaves the Hawks, he and and his agent will be looking for a seven or eight year (if he gets traded before next summer) contract close to $8 million/year.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/6/1/monday-musings-brent-seabrook

  106. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: $8 million for 8 years is only possible on an existing team, so lets say he goes UFA… I think 8 million for 7 years is the high side of realisitic (and still too much in my opinion).

    I think it’s safe to say that he’s acknowledged as being a better all around player than Boychuck and worth more on the market, at approximately the same age.That’s the comp he will be using and I’m certain someone in the league will agree to pay him at least 7 million dollars per year, likely for 7 years.

    I would prefer that not be the Oilers, as much as I like the player.I’m comfortable signing a 28 year old for 7 years, but a 31 year old (especially one that has played as many playoff games as Seabrook has) is simply too old to sign that long.

    No sense talking about signing him for 4 or 5 years, he won’t take it.He will ask for 7 years and he will get it.

    I am not going to negotiate myself out of a deal before the negotiations even begin based on speculation and what-ifs. YMMV.

  107. flea says:

    spoiler,

    I heard the same number on FAN960 (spits) – can’t remember when but something tells me it was Elliot Friedman last Friday morning. So not confirming anything but that number is getting thrown around.

    I don’t think he’d command that but his agent is going to put out a max number for him and then negotiate down.

    With that being said, it’s time for the Oilers to bite on a big name, whether it’s Seabrook, Chara, etc.All I read here is “cap killer” and “too old” but I think the big issue with the Oilers bets the last 10 years is they aren’t willing to go in deep on someone. We are left with a bunch of contracts like Ference and Nikitin where they tried to get value veterans. This has to be the worst bet of all. A guy who is too old that can’t play at a high level anymore, and can’t help the young talented guys because they themselves were never overly talented.

    I think the mentorship aspect is overlooked sometimes. Young players being able to see how future hall of famers and all stars conduct themselves on and off the ice is very important. Not only that but a guy like Seabrook is known for being highly competitive, a team guy, wants to come to Edmonton – there are a few things going for him. He won’t live up to the contract because he is playing on a great team right now and will inevitably look worse on the Oilers. But really – what’s worse?? Seabrook at 8 Million or Ference and Nikitin at 8M combined?? I’d rather put more into a more proven veteran on decline than continue to hamstring the team with value veterans who don’t provide much of anything other than fill a spot.

  108. Bag of Pucks says:

    The only way I give ‘Norris’ another year of rope is if Chia can drive him down in arbitration and MacClellan can shelter him to the max. We’re talking Cold War era concrete bunker bomb shelter.

    There’s an argument to be made that he could still hit that stage in his development where the game slows down a fraction of a second, and then he’s ‘anticipating’ and making plays, not ‘reacting’ and lobbing inacurrate passes.

    He’ll never have a big time slapper though and will likely always be a liability against physical wingers on the cycle.

    Norris? More like player voted most likely to never see an own zone face off.

  109. rickithebear says:

    Seabrook Last 3 years:
    mid 2nd comp 2.19 EVGA/60
    3 years before that.
    mid 1st comp 2.53 EVGA/60

    The guy is a below average 1st comp D.

    Hjarlmasson has been the most critical player to Chicago’s success.
    the most consistent + player.

  110. misfit says:

    I don’t think we’re getting Seabrook, but he wouldn’t be asked to take any more significant a role here as he has with the Blackhawks the past number of years. He has Oduya taking the defensive zone faceoffs and higher overall quality of competition at RD. He would have Fayne here doing the same.

    He would, however, not have arguably the league’s best defenseman on the ice with him 43.7% of the time. So there’s that.

    I would be interested to see how Weber and Suter’s WOWY would look the years they played together. It would probably show that one of them didn’t measure up as a top pairing D compared to the other as well.

  111. speeds says:

    spoiler,

    Calder isn’t eligible for Sched B bonuses negotiated between team and club, according to CBA section Exhibit 5 2.(a), quoted below.:

    (a) League-wide Awards/Trophies. The following are the only awards or trophies
    for which Clubs and Players may negotiate bonuses: the Hart Memorial Trophy
    (“Hart”), the “Rocket” Richard Trophy (“Richard”), the Vezina Trophy
    (“Vezina”), the William Jennings Trophy (“Jennings”), the Norris Trophy
    (“Norris”), the Conn Smythe (“Conn Smythe”), and the Frank J. Selke Trophy
    (“Selke”). In the event that the National Hockey League creates additional
    award(s) of like stature in the future, Clubs may award bonuses to Players in
    connection therewith.

    Wouldn’t Draisaitl have already played too many games to be eligible for it next year anyways? What’s the cut-off for games in one season? 25?

  112. spoiler says:

    Pouzar:
    “Two different sources told me if he leaves the Hawks, he and and his agent will be looking for a seven or eight year (if he gets traded before next summer) contract close to $8 million/year.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/6/1/monday-musings-brent-seabrook

    If this is true, and I find it VERY difficult to believe, I think Seabrook’s agent is smoking crack. He will not get $8M X 7 under the present deflationary cap from anyone, even if he goes the UFA auction route.

    As has been said many times, you can’t trade for Seabrook without getting permission to speak to him on an extension. Thus those numbers would be clarified before going into any possible trade.

    I don’t let Gregor’s sources stop me from making the call to Bowman. I think it would be stupid not to do so merely based on innuendo and rumour.

    But maybe I operate differently than you guys.

  113. spoiler says:

    speeds:
    spoiler,

    Calder isn’t eligible for Sched B bonuses negotiated between team and club, according to CBA section Exhibit 52.(a), quoted below.:

    Wouldn’t Draisaitl have already played too many games to be eligible for it next year anyways?What’s the cut-off for games in one season?25?

    Then Capgeek was wrong in using that as an example, and we have even less to worry about.

  114. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ok, please stop with the Seabrook talk. Seabrook is a player that you acquire if you are one piece away from a Cup run. He’s the sort of player you acquire if you are … Chicago. Yes they are in the sort of Cap Hell that comes from fighting for their 3rd Stanley in 6 years. Just as they didn’t have to gut to the core last time, they will find a way to keep Seabrook over almost any other potential (Bickel, Sharp, Crawford) Cap relief option. Move on people.

  115. spoiler says:

    speeds,

    25 is correct. Drai would be out.

  116. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: But maybe I operate differently than you guys.

    Extrapolating much?

  117. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: Extrapolating much?

    That’s what she said.

    Glad to hear you would do the same on Seabrook.

  118. spoiler says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Ok, please stop with the Seabrook talk.Seabrook is a player that you acquire if you are one piece away from a Cup run.He’s the sort of player you acquire if you are … Chicago.Yes they are in the sort of Cap Hell that comes from fighting for their 3rd Stanley in 6 years.Just as they didn’t have to gut to the core last time, they will find a way to keep Seabrook over almost any other potential (Bickel, Sharp, Crawford) Cap relief option.Move on people.

    Pouzar: Extrapolating much?

    I don’t think “extrapolate” means what you think it means.

  119. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: That’s what she said. Glad to hear you would do the same on Seabrook.

    I would definitely take the temperature of that agent Yes.

  120. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    spoiler: I am not going to negotiate myself out of a deal before the negotiations even begin based on speculation and what-ifs.YMMV.

    So I don’t know what YMMV stands for….

    Anyway, sure, don’t negotiate yourself out of the deal… that’s fine. But I think it’s fair to say, based on a cursory glance at NHL GM behavior over the past few years, that SOMEONE will be willing to give Seabrook at least 6 years, and likely the full 7. This is a guy that was on the 2010 Canadian Olympic team and damn near on the 2014 team. His rep is higher than his actual value, and his actual value is still pretty high.

    Boychuck is the best recent comp. to Seabrook. By reputation alone Boychuck is a pretty sizable step down from Seabrook in terms of name-value. Seabrook will get at least what Boychuck got, likely more, even in a contracting cap year.

  121. Halfwise says:

    spoiler:
    I don’t think “extrapolate” means what you think it means.

    One of the meanings of “projecting” is “extrapolating”.

    Unfortunate that it doesn’t apply in this context.

  122. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    At first, I thought it meant, ‘you make me vomit’, but it’s really ‘your mileage may vary’.

  123. Ducey says:

    spoiler: If this is true, and I find it VERY difficult to believe, I think Seabrook’s agent is smoking crack.He will not get $8M X 7 under the present deflationary cap from anyone, even if he goes the UFA auction route.

    As has been said many times, you can’t trade for Seabrook without getting permission to speak to him on an extension.Thus those numbers would be clarified before going into any possible trade.

    I don’t let Gregor’s sources stop me from making the call to Bowman. I think it would be stupid not to do so merely based on innuendo and rumour.

    But maybe I operate differently than you guys.

    I think you do. Bowman wouldn’t answer my calls.

  124. Reneh says:

    Adam Wu,

    This is sound strategy, but for one item…this may be the best year to take advantage of high cap teams. The trade of picks/prospects for high cap, but required player (top 4 D) may only be available this year, as the cap is not going up like some teams hoped/planned for.

    Same goes for signing free agents. They may prefer cup teams, but if those cup teams don’t have cap room, maybe Edmonton can actually look attractive and be competitive on salary to free agents.

    (EDIT) This is in response to the “wait one more year to evaluate” comment.

  125. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Reneh:
    Adam Wu,

    This is sound strategy, but for one item…this may be the best year to take advantage of high cap teams.The trade of picks/prospects for high cap, but required player (top 4 D) may only be available this year, as the cap is not going up like some teams hoped/planned for.

    Same goes for signing free agents.They may prefer cup teams, but if those cup teams don’t have cap room, maybe Edmonton can actually look attractive and be competitive on salary to free agents.

    (EDIT) This is in response to the “wait one more year to evaluate” comment.

    This is probably our biggest issue. This is the year to pick up players of the cap strapped teams, but we don’t possess an enormous amount of cap because of expensive contracts like Ference, Nikitin and Purcell. We aren’t right against the cap but not as far away as we’d like. We can take on some cap but it may limit our other moves. I figure we can add at least 1 good D and G this year and then go UFA shopping next year when Purcell, Nikitin and Gordon are coming off their pricey contracts.

  126. raventalon40 says:

    AnOmYnOuS1: Interesting idea. I really like the idea of obtaining Lack. I think that the extra contract may knock his cost down but even if it doesn’t a 2nd is decent value. He doesn’t look as good as Schneider was but he seems like he could be at least an average+ starter. Haven’t seen enough of Higgins but his numbers look decent, he’s got average size and 2.5 is loads better then 4.5 we’re paying Purcell for a similar role. How is his 2-way play? Is he someone we could use on the PK or rely on to be the defensive player for his line?

    16th pick
    RFA like Pitlick

    for

    23rd pick
    Lack
    Webber

  127. Ducey says:

    https://twitter.com/OilersNow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Foilers.nhl.com%2Findex.html&profile_id=15361389&tw_i=605821485052092416&tw_p=embeddedtimeline&tw_w=295298758130941952

    Some interesting quotes from Chia Pete:

    Would trade a pick for something to help now but also grow with the organization (Doesn’t sound like Seabrook)

    Hasn’t ruled out Derek Roy

    A big believer in analytics

    Could move a C to the wing.

    Wants greater due diligence at the draft

    Said: “I don’t want to say take it slowly but we want to do things the right way.” Chiarelli on his approach this offseason.

  128. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Probably, but you can’t start out by negotiating against yourself.

    Pouzar put it nicely… it’s worth it to take that agent’s temperature first. See what you’re dealing with.

    I can’t start out like Rat Zeal above… I want to know what the landscape looks like–as long as the looking is free.

    And the same with St. Loo’s right hander Dmen, NYR’s, Spurgeon.

    And of course what you’re giving up comes into play too, as we all know. I think plan #1 should be to sign Michalek, regardless of what happens by trade or not. But again the term has to be reasonable. And who knows, maybe he’s so used to the US he doesn’t feel like changing countries. So we can’t even rely on that.

    We need multiple paths and the checking of all options to find the best way through this jungle. Relying on one or two routes is fraught with danger… maybe a T. Rex in the way and most certainly a sketchy bridge made from rope.

    And this is all impacted by what you do at goal.

    Didn’t envy MacT and I don’t Chia. Fuckuva job.

  129. spoiler says:

    Ducey:
    https://twitter.com/OilersNow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Foilers.nhl.com%2Findex.html&profile_id=15361389&tw_i=605821485052092416&tw_p=embeddedtimeline&tw_w=295298758130941952

    Some interesting quotes from Chia Pete:

    Would trade a pick for something to help now but also grow with the organization (Doesn’t sound like Seabrook)

    Hasn’t ruled out Derek Roy

    A big believer in analytics

    Could move a C to the wing.

    Wants greater due diligence at the draft

    Said: “I don’t want to say take it slowly but we want to do things the right way.” Chiarelli on his approach this offseason.

    Some wonderful lines there… did he say anything about goal?

  130. Doug McLachlan says:

    Nice little piece up on Leafs Nation on UFAs worth considering:

    http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/2/10-ufas-worth-looking-at

    In addition to Franson and Soderberg, who I am both keen on, and Winnik, who I know LT rightly loves, there is a strong pitch for SJ D-man Matt Irwin.

    He’s not the 1st d-man you target (assuming Chia brings in two) but could be the second.

    At 27 the age is right and McLellan should have a good book on what sort of player is there.

    Another point, that I had overlooked, was the heightened potential, given the tightness to the Cap, of teams walking away from RFA arbitration awards. Wonder how many agents would want to risk that for their clients but still, interesting thought.

    Final ramble, I don’t think the Oilers fire off an offer sheet to Boston for Dougie Hamilton but I wonder if Buffalo might. If Buffalo made a Weber-esque offer at Hamilton, who might spring loose in the scramble to hold on to him?

  131. G Money says:

    Ducey: Said: “I don’t want to say take it slowly but we want to do things the right way.” Chiarelli on his approach this offseason.

    I like that.

    It’s not “this is another developmental year” which translates roughly as “Fuck, this is hopeless.”

    It’s not “We need to be bold!” which translates roughly as “I clearly have no idea how shitty this team is and therefore how tough it’s going to be to get better quickly.”

    It’s “do things the right way.”

    Hey Chia Pete, here’s some thoughts in that regard:

    Get good players. Keep good players.

    Cap space matters.
    Overpaying for mediocre (Nikitin) or over the hill veterans (Ference) is bad.
    Lock your good players (Petry) up to value contracts as soon as you know they’re good.

    Before you trade, make sure your pro scouting is competent.

    Drafting is really important.
    Everyone wants size, speed, and skill, but we already have McDavid.
    If it comes to a choice between either size or skill, choose skill.

    Learn from your teams mistakes (and there’s a lot of learning)!

  132. GCW_69 says:

    I am a little surprised Myles Bell didn’t get signed. Before the car crash, he was considered first or second round talent. And he is supposed to have a very hard shot ( 98 mph at 17).

  133. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    He’s under-promising with the first line too. It’s a beautiful thing.

    Edit: And it’s all about keeping his options open.

    Why would you publicly exclude Roy, analytics, and where players might play? Smart man.

  134. Doug McLachlan says:

    GCW_69,

    While not signed by the Devils, Hockey’s Future says that he signed an AHL contract in October with Albany.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/myles-bell/

    “2013-14: Bell attended training camp with the Devils before returning to Kelowna for an overage season. He was the Rockets’ leading scorer with 42 goals and 35 assists and was plus-21 with 51 penalty minutes in 69 regular season games. Kelowna finished first in the B.C. Division, winning 57 of 72 games, and reached the Western Conference Finals. Bell scored 3 goals with 1 assist in three playoff games; suffering a season-ending knee injury that required surgery. Bell signed an AHL contract with New Jersey affiliate Albany in October 2014.”

  135. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Habs challenge Petry – to find a nice house and settle in for a while:

    Follow

    Canadiens MontréalVerified account
    ‏@CanadiensMTL
    The Canadiens have agreed to terms on a six-year contract with Jeff Petry (2015-16 to 2020-21). http://goha.bs/1M2rP0S

  136. Soup Fascist says:

    Guess anyone who had Petry on their UFA list can cross him off.

  137. LMHF#1 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Habs challenge Petry – to find a nice house and settle in for a while:

    Follow

    Canadiens MontréalVerified account
    ‏@CanadiensMTL
    The Canadiens have agreed to terms on a six-year contract with Jeff Petry (2015-16 to 2020-21). http://goha.bs/1M2rP0S

    Thanks Craig…

  138. Soup Fascist says:

    LMHF#1: Thanks Craig…

    Of all of MacT’s blunders the ham-handed manner in which he handled the asset that was Jeff Petry did more to piss me off than any of his other myopic acts. If you don’t like a player – fine – but irrevocably devaluing the asset was unforgiveable.

  139. raventalon40 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Habs challenge Petry – to find a nice house and settle in for a while:

    Follow

    Canadiens MontréalVerified account
    ‏@CanadiensMTL
    The Canadiens have agreed to terms on a six-year contract with Jeff Petry (2015-16 to 2020-21). http://goha.bs/1M2rP0S

    5.5 million per season. Not a bad price considering he had the open market to consider. He pretty liked what he saw and decided to stay in MTL

  140. Marc says:

    Reneh:
    Adam Wu,

    This is sound strategy, but for one item…this may be the best year to take advantage of high cap teams.The trade of picks/prospects for high cap, but required player (top 4 D) may only be available this year, as the cap is not going up like some teams hoped/planned for.

    Same goes for signing free agents.They may prefer cup teams, but if those cup teams don’t have cap room, maybe Edmonton can actually look attractive and be competitive on salary to free agents.

    (EDIT) This is in response to the “wait one more year to evaluate” comment.

    Stauffer actually asked Chia about this. Chia said that they have to balance the fact that the Oilers will naturally have more cap space next summer than this one against the fact that there may be better players available from cap strapped teams this summer than next.

    I suspect that means that the Oilers won’t be dumping every player who is paid more than he’s worth just for the hell of it, especially if the problem will solve itself next summer. That said, if the right deal comes along and cap space needs to be freed up to make it happen, then they’ll find a way to do so.

  141. vinotintazo says:

    33M for Petry? holy!@#$. lol. 2nd paring Dman are getting expensive.

  142. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    LMHF#1: Thanks Craig…

    We can’t have a bunch of guys all making four million dollars!

  143. Soup Fascist says:

    vinotintazo:
    33M for Petry? holy!@#$. lol. 2nd paring Dman are getting expensive.

    Lots of talk he is a 2nd pairing guy, maybe that is fair, but other than Subban, who on the Canadiens is ahead of Petry on the D depth chart? Pretty clear Markov is done.

  144. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT (or others) remind me what we all thought was a fair price for Petry?

    I think we missed the boat on this asset but I’m not sure we wouldn’t all be howling in disgust had MacT signed him for this amount and term – or was this what we were expecting/demanding MacT do?

  145. Soup Fascist says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): We can’t have a bunch of guys all making four million dollars!

    Steve Yzerman is on the phone looking for you and he sounds pissed ……

  146. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Crazy move by MTL. That’s really going to hamstring them in terms of their ability to overpay a guy like Nikitin.

  147. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    It would have been to much to pay him if he hadn’t done what he’d done in MTL; the league see’s a different player than they did a few months ago. It’s not that he’s any better or worse, but he increased his value quite a bit by playing just as well as he always did on a much better team.

  148. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Soup Fascist: Steve Yzerman is on the phone looking for youand he sounds pissed ……

    Shhhh.. I’m on with Sather right now!

    yes Glen, go on…

  149. Woodguy says:

    speeds,

    AFAIK the 2005 CBA made the teams account for the potential bonuses with no “cushion”

  150. John Chambers says:

    $6 M / yr x 6 for Andrej Sekara anyone? Maybe get Franson at 5 years for $5.5M.

    Unrestricted free agency is going to be a fools errand this summer.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist: Of all of MacT’s blunders the ham-handed manner in which he handled the asset that was Jeff Petry did more to piss me off than any of his other myopic acts.If you don’t like a player – fine – but irrevocably devaluing the asset was unforgiveable.

    Never forget that Strudwick said:

    “I’ve never seen a team treat a good player as bad as the Oilers treated Petry”

  152. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Have been sort of reviewing past posts on Petry to see what the thinking was for him and a 4×5 deal seemed to be the going rate (understanding that this would be inclusive of his final RFA year) so around the same ball-park.

    Agree that he not only improved his value in Montreal through his play but as the second to Subban (with Markov set to exit) he’s positioned himself nicely for success too.

    One of the things with Petry is that I was never convinced that he was prepared to sign here for a long term. He wanted to test his UFA options (or at least wanted a change of scenery) before doing so.

    I agree with many on this blog that too many undervalued him while in Copper and Blue silks but I don’t know if there was a pre-McDavid $ amount that was reasonable which keeps Petry here.

  153. marty62 says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Its not even about the value anymore, at one point we traded Gilbert because of how well Petry was playing. Then MacT passed on the chance to sign him to a long term deal. Instead he “challenges” him then has to trade him for magic beans. MacT has done alot of dumb things in the last bit but he wasted a very good asset in an area that is the Oilers largest weak spot. I would like him totally gone from the organization, His faults massively out weigh any positives that he brings to the organization

  154. russ99 says:

    Good to see Petry get that kind of salary.

    Kind of confirms my suspicion that all this wasn’t about Eakins, or undervaluing him as a player.

    MacT likely lowballed him last summer and Petry wouldn’t go for it.

  155. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    marty62,

    Well, he no longer has a title, if that means anything:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=81299

  156. Soup Fascist says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Exactly. Two teams in the final four with not much in the way of standard deviation in what they pay their top six D.

    Both teams with 6 good – no superstars (Hedman and MacDonough are very good) – actual NHL calibre defensemen.

    Tell me Petry would not have signed here for a 5 yr x $4 – $4.5 million contract if MactT did not have Jultz-coloured glasses on. Based on today, that would be considered a “value” contract.

  157. marty62 says:

    Woodguy,

    This is it in a nutshell… if you were a young player looking to sign on, how much would you like the Oilers under MacT

  158. AsiaOil says:

    1) Lots of UFA vet 2nd line RW available this year and we should be able to net one – need another Pouliot in the top 6 to compete in the west.

    2) Do not trade Gordon until the trade deadline – we finally have a BIT of depth at C and people want to get rid of it? One injury and everyone has to bat higher in the order which we can survive with RNH, CMD, Lander & Gordon.

    3) Eberle, Yak & #16 (in descending order of value) are on the table for a dman. Eberle only goes if a top pair guy is involved, Yak & #16 only if a youngish 2nd pair guy like Larsson is involved. If none of the above deals are available you keep your powder dry this season.

    4) Sign the best UFA dman you can this summer but don’t blow your brains out on mid-level talent.

    5) you try trade Shutlz at the draft with #16 or one of the young RW for a dman. Failing that you try trade him for anything you can get. Failing that you walk away and use his uber-soft minutes to protect others. He is not young and very flawed – but maybe someone else will take a flyer on him. Adios amigo.

    6) Unless a trade is available for Nikitin/Ference – you hang on to them until the deadline and try again to unload then. These guys are your 6/7 and never play at the same time until injury makes it unavoidable. Worst case scenario is that Nikitin’s contract expires in the summer and you buy out the last year of Ference’s deal.

    7) use the #33 pick and a secondary assets like Shultz or minor leaguers to get the goalie you need. I like Anderson but Lack may work. Bernier would be great but availability and cost is unknown – #16 for Bernier may be a trade I consider as there is upside for both teams. The solid vet Anderson is the best short-term solution, Bernier best for the longterm – and I hate the idea of Howard or Crawford. Other UFA options leave me unimpressed unless TMac really like Niemi and he comes at good value for reasonable term.

    Bottom line – unlike the past decade – there is reason for confidence in this mgmt group. I especially liked the way they dealt with the coaching issue – didn’t get involved in a low-percentage game with Babcock and instead focused on obtaining a solid upgrade with little drama. So nice for a change and I expect the same will happen with player movement. No need for giant leaps forward this year – a series of small positive moves is actually better while the situation clarifies.

  159. marty62 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    He still has a voice though and that scares me….

  160. Doug McLachlan says:

    Petry’s deal put’s the Habs at $4.725 million in cap space with Galchenyuk left to sign.

    Trying to look for the opportunities, what might be available?

  161. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    marty62,

    Chelli has had to put up with Neely and Jacobs for a while now. I’m sure he’ll be able to deal with MacT.

  162. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Interesting strategy. Do you know that this is legal, under the CBA? Because it seems to be circumventing the RFA qualifying rules.

    Has there ever been another team that has tried this?

    Del Zotto, I believe

  163. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Nope. Nashville didn’t qualify him, and let him go UFA. Philly then signed him UFA.

    The person I was replying to, suggested that a team could tell their RFA that they weren’t going to qualify him, and then tell him what they will give them as a UFA – a lower amount that what the QO would have been.

    I can’t think of a player who was not qualified as RFA, and then signed as UFA by the same team.

  164. AsiaOil says:

    Great news about Petry – happy for the guy – sad for us.

    The Oilers have massive holes in net and on defense – and in some of his first acts as GM – MacT set in motion the demolition of their starting goalie and top dman. Pretty f**king fantastic that these two guys went on to be nominated for a Vezina and star in the playoffs this year. Between these bonehead moves and the coaching fiasco which almost cost them Lander and Yak – it’s unlikely the guy will ever get anywhere near NHL decision-making again – and rightly so.

    I try to move on – but junk like this just makes you burn – the faster he moves on the better.

  165. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    AsiaOil: Great news abut Petry – happy for the guy

    Naw – the great food is going to impact his conditioning, and Mrs Petry will undoubtedly catch him looking at whatever the latest trends are in women’s fashion. He’s going to regret not insisting to stay and be a part of Eakins’ Swarmy!

    /s

  166. Ice Sage says:

    AsiaOil:
    1) Lots of UFA vet 2nd line RW available this year and we should be able to net one – need another Pouliot in the top 6 to compete in the west.

    2) Do not trade Gordon until the trade deadline – we finally have a BIT of depth at C and people want to get rid of it? One injury and everyone has to bat higher in the order which we can survive with RNH, CMD, Lander & Gordon.

    3) Eberle, Yak & #16 (in descending order of value) are on the table for a dman. Eberle only goes if a top pair guy is involved, Yak & #16 only if a youngish 2nd pair guy like Larsson is involved. If none of the above deals are available you keep your powder dry this season.

    4) Sign the best UFA dman you can this summer but don’t blow your brains out on mid-level talent.

    5) you try trade Shutlz at the draft with #16 or one of the young RW for a dman.Failing that you try trade him for anything you can get. Failing that you walk away and use his uber-soft minutes to protect others. He is not young and very flawed – but maybe someone else will take a flyer on him. Adios amigo.

    6) Unless a trade is available for Nikitin/Ference – you hang on to them until the deadline and try again to unload then. These guys are your 6/7 and never play at the same time until injury makes it unavoidable. Worst case scenario is that Nikitin’s contract expires in the summer and you buy out the last year of Ference’s deal.

    7) use the #33 pick and a secondary assets like Shultz or minor leaguers to get the goalie you need. I like Anderson but Lack may work. Bernier would be great but availability and cost is unknown – #16 for Bernier may be a trade I consider as there is upside for both teams. The solid vet Anderson is the best short-term solution, Bernier best for the longterm – and I hate the idea of Howard or Crawford. Other UFA options leave me unimpressed unless TMac really like Niemi and he comes at good value for reasonable term.

    Bottom line – unlike the past decade – there is reason for confidence in this mgmt group. I especially liked the way they dealt with the coaching issue – didn’t get involved in a low-percentage game with Babcock and instead focused on obtaining a solid upgrade with little drama. So nice for a change and I expect the same will happen with player movement. No need for giant leaps forward this year – a series of small positive moves is actually better while the situation clarifies.

    That’s some perceptive stuff, AsiaOil – thanks.

  167. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Nope. Nashville didn’t qualify him, and let him go UFA. Philly then signed him UFA.

    The person I was replying to, suggested that a team could tell their RFA that they weren’t going to qualify him, and then tell him what they will give them as a UFA – a lower amount that what the QO would have been.

    I can’t think of a player who was not qualified as RFA, and then signed as UFA by the same team.

    Ah, can’t read far back enough. Was just looking for an example of a somewhat promising young guy that was walked away from to avoid a steep contract.

    I think you go for the 85% in arbitration. Dump Ference or Nikitin. Schultz has some value to his game and hasn’t really had an ideal partner yet.

    Petry getting 5.5 to go to a team that just made the 2nd round screams Edmonton is screwed in free agency to me. Doesn’t make sense to dump a body. Purcell probably has to go too, maybe bring in a guy like Santorelli on the cheap to fill his shoes. Throw money at Martin and Michalek with the end goal of: Klefbom-Michalek Marincin/Nurse-Fayne Martin-Schultz. Settle for a lot less when Martin signs in Buffalo for 6M

  168. Halfwise says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Nope. Nashville didn’t qualify him, and let him go UFA. Philly then signed him UFA.

    The person I was replying to, suggested that a team could tell their RFA that they weren’t going to qualify him, and then tell him what they will give them as a UFA – a lower amount that what the QO would have been.

    I can’t think of a player who was not qualified as RFA, and then signed as UFA by the same team.

    That was me.

    My view is that Schultz is way overpaid for what he contributes, and his primo ice time might be better going to someone else. So, he’s not worth a Qualifying Offer.

    But he is a known quantity; that is worth something. And he can move the puck once he is out of his own zone.

    If the Oilers do nothing, he is UFA and can test the market. The Oilers are part of the market; nothing disqualifies a team from making an offer on any UFA. Hell, they may do it with Derek Roy later this summer, and most of us wish they had done it with Glencross instead of going whale hunting back in the day.

    Would I expect Jultz to accept an offer for 60% of what he currently makes? No, frankly. But if it is what the Oilers think he is worth, that is what they should offer the UFA Jultz. The CBA prevents them from offering that amount as a QO.

  169. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Halfwise: That was me.

    Like I said, it’s an interesting idea.

    But just like when a player becomes UFA after being bought out, I wouldn’t be surprised that there is a similar clause for teams that choose not to qualify a RFA: the team that walks away from the player, is barred from offering them a contract later.

    Otherwise, what’s the point of the RFA qualification process? This directly circumvents it. But I’m not a lawyer, nor have I read (or intend to read) the CBA.

  170. godot10 says:

    1) So I was right on the dementor.

    2) I was right on Petry’s contract AAV. EffU MacT.

    3) I will be right on Franson. That Franson sucks. Woe to the fans of the team that signs him.

  171. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    speeds,

    AFAIK the 2005 CBA made the teams account for the potential bonuses with no “cushion”

    teams were allowed to exceed the cap in the 2005 CBA, that was part of what put CHI into such a cap crunch after winning, they had something like a 4M+ bonus overage that applied to the following season’s cap, IIRC.

  172. John Chambers says:

    I’m not sure how much MacT is to blame for Petry ultimately.

    My guess is that his agent held out for a 1 year deal and then made it soon obvious that they weren’t interested In a career in Edmonton. Worked like a charm – now the man is rich.

    Perhaps the Oilers tried to punish Petry a bit by making him a healthy scratch, but were in the worst negotiating position imaginable.

    It appears the club may have to trade a top offensive player for a Dman, and may also have to pony up ugly dollars for Sekara. A nasty bit of business ahead, no doubt

  173. raventalon40 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Petry’s deal put’s the Habs at $4.725 million in cap space with Galchenyuk left to sign.

    Trying to look for the opportunities, what might be available?

    I’d shoot for Eller to play on the Soderberg and Lander line. But what would it cost? Would a 2nd round pick be sufficient? Maybe Jultz for Eller+? Or swing for a home run with Jultz, prospects, and picks (2nd++) for Eller and Emelin?

    Lineup:
    Pouliot-RNH-Yakupov
    Hall-McDavid-Eberle
    Soderberg-Lander-Eller
    Hendricks-Beagle-Klinkhammer

    Klefbom-UFA/Trade
    Emelin-Fayne
    Ference-McQuaid
    Davidson?

    Pressing Matters:
    Tade Purcell for prospect/picks
    Trade Gordon for picks
    Deal with Nikitin…
    Draisaitl-> AHL

    Assumptions:
    Marincin will be traded
    Soderberg/McQuaid will come over to the darkside
    There is no way to get rid of Ference

  174. Klima's_Bucket says:

    If Petry and his agent played hard ball last summer and demanded a one year deal I believe the Oilers could have handled the situation better.
    All the Oilers did this season was publicly shame him, scratch him, and try and make him look terrible.
    A solid franchise would have dealt him last summer and if not, then they would have fed him gravy minutes, doled out some PP time and showcased him to drive up the return.
    The Oilers did the opposite. Eakins was canned. MacT is still around for some reason.

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