YOU SAY IT BEST, WHEN YOU SAY NOTHING AT ALL

Peter Chiarelli will. not. give. away. information. As a fan I’m both delighted and enraged. After the MacT “I’m not going to tell you where the treasure is even though it’s over there” era, this could be quite depressing—unless we see results. In his latest on the record spoken word today, Chiarelli talked to Bob Stauffer, said a lot of things about a lot of things, and we’re left examining syntax and parsing sighs.

ON THE DRAFT AND WHAT THEY’RE LOOKING FOR

  • Chiarelli: “I wanted to make sure that they dug a little deeper or maybe dug in a different place. When they’re talking about specific players, just make sure that when they were digging they were highlighting the harder areas of the game; where they exist in this player. It’s more of just re-adjusting a focus and letting them know what our philosophy is. It’s about maybe directing traffic a little bit in the course of a meeting.”

I take this to mean they’ll focus on guys like Lawson Crouse, Pavel Zacha, Evgeni Svechnikov, Jesse Gabrielle, Brandon Carlo, Keegan Kolesar, Loik Leveille and others, but that’s fine there are solid players there. It might mean small players like Anthony Beauvillier and Travis Konecny get passed over, but if they’re looking for game roosters those guys certainly qualify. As with most of the interview, I’m not actually sure much was said.

  • Chiarelli: “The size thing is something that’s important and that may be another kind of vetting process that we go through with later on, before the draft. Right now, we’re interviewing a lot of these kids at the combine and they know that I place a certain level of emphasis on size, a certain level of emphasis on grit, and we don’t dismiss skill. They know these are areas that they have to check off when they’re interviewing these kids. It’s more about the beginning steps of imparting my philosophy. It’s really just a higher level of due diligence and just all of us, collectively, rolling up our sleeves and pecking away at it. A lot of it right now is evaluation. It’s interviewing, it’s assessing, but it’s also all the personalities involved getting to know each other too.”

Beyond ordering up a player from 1986, there aren’t many big men who are gritty and skilled—and that is a fact. Crouse is 6.04, 215 and I imagine if there’s a poster boy for Chiarelli in this regard it’s Crouse. It could mean the Oilers trade up and grab the big winger—that’s always been possible—but I’m going to argue it’s unwise. Zacha is 6.03, 215, Svechnikov 6.03, 210, Jordan Greenway is 6.05, 225, and Brandon Carlo (6.05, 205) is a big defender. If the Oilers want to just draft by mass, Chris Martenet is 6.07, 198 and Keegan Kolesar is 6.01, 217.

Again, I don’t think there’s much in these words we can point to as a change in direction. If Crouse moves from 9 to 5, so what? Zacha 11 to 8? It’s simply not a draft for Edmonton to go out of order—unless, as stated above, they deal up for Crouse or Zacha.

Source for the above is here.

ON TRADING PICKS IN 2015 DRAFT

  • Chiarelli: “I certainly would look at moving any of those picks for something that would – immediate help, yeah – something that would help us right now, but also that could grow with our organization. So you should talk about, relatively speaking, a younger player. But I’m not ruling out anything. That’s a lot of picks and it’s good to have a lot of picks to develop players, but we also want to hit the ground running too with some more game-ready players.”

This is an astute observation by a veteran GM. He is willing to move a pick, but since the selection is going to be productive (as an Oiler) for seven season or more (if he works out), then getting one year or even two years of a good player isn’t enough. Of all the things he said today, this is the most encouraging.

ON LEON AND DEREK ROY

  • Chiarelli: “Leon had a terrific year and playoff. I’d rather be in a position to see a number of competitions at camp and make some determinations at that point. I don’t want to guarantee any spots to anybody. Having said that, I did really see a level of improvement in Leon in the course of the year. I saw him sporadically at the beginning, but I saw him more at the end. Then there’s also the option of maybe one of those players going on the wing, one of the younger players, if it merits – if they merit a job. So we look at a lot of different things. I know Derek Roy had some success last year with Yakupov and I haven’t ruled that out yet. But there’s a lot of different things we’re looking at for one of those centers, whether it be someone we draft or someone we acquire or someone who is already in our system.”

Several interesting items there. Leon’s progress has him in the conversation and that may include the wing. We discussed cap bonuses this morning, that’s still an issue (although the comments section straightened out a few things, including Calder bonus) but if Draisaitl earns it there’s an opportunity waiting. The Roy item is fascinating, and tells us the ‘size’ and ‘grit’ emphasis does indeed march in lock step with skill. Perhaps Roy plays 3C with Yakupov and moves over when Draisaitl arrives? Anyway. We talk about these things as if injury has no impact on players and seasons.

ON FREE AGENCY

  • Chiraelli: “You have to be prepared to overspend a little bit, and over-term, so to speak, these guys if you’re going into free agency. You have to plan out a little bit more. It’s a market that we’ll look at. It’s a pool of players and we want to improve our team… There may be players on teams who need to get rid of that will be available because of cap constraints. So we’ll look at that market. There will be players to look at and distressed trades and normal trades and the free agency market, so we’ll look at all of them.”

I think they might look at Cody Franson and Carl Soderberg—specific and young talents—but the days of hiring mid-30’s blue is hopefully behind us. Antti Niemi, well past 30, is probably a player of interest.

Source

JEFF PETRY

We tried to tell them. We really did. I’m very happy for Jeff Petry, bet Peter Chiarelli wishes he had the opportunity to get something done with a defensemen of that calibre before July 1. Maybe he’ll trade for the right to talk contract with Cody Franson. That would be a fine idea.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

143 Responses to "YOU SAY IT BEST, WHEN YOU SAY NOTHING AT ALL"

  1. Hockeyman 99 says:

    I’m so disappointed in MacT in regards to Petry. He will be the poster boy for his failure.

  2. SinceTheWHADays says:

    All the positives this summer have been great, but I can honestly say that the Petry signing by the Habs felt more than a little depressing. How could MacTavish have been so blind???

  3. Gerta Rauss says:

    Haven’t caught up on the days comments (or even read this post yet to be honest) but just wanted to say I’m a big fan of Alison Krauss. Saw her (and Union Station) a few years back at the Folk Fest.

    Wonderful

  4. Really? says:

    Absolutely amazing. MacT and the Oilers misread the abilities of Petry so badly. If they are in the process of doing the same thing with Marincin it would be criminal. Very anxious to see what Chiarelli’s version of horse trading and talent evaluation looks like.

  5. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers have been making horrible bets on defensemen for most of a decade now. It’s absolutely astounding.

  6. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    The curse of Lauren Pronger lives on.

  7. gr8one says:

    5.5 x 6 for Petry…

    Damn you MacT.(And Tambellini)

  8. Snowman says:

    I think you have to marry the comments today on draft philosophy with the comments Chia made earlier about how playing hard doesn’t mean being physically imposing but there is some nuance in it. I think Chia’s comments today are more a confirmation of that. He wants his scouts to dig deeper to find players who play hard and hopefully not just take a big body who has “grittitude”. I’m fine with that. If they’re skilled and they play hard. Even better.

    His comments on size being a vetting process later on sounds more to me that it could be a determining factor after they’ve identified players they like who play the way they want (hopefully that involves some significant skill).

    I’m really looking forward to the draft. It will be the first time we can match commentary up with actions by the GM. Should give a good indication of what the next era of Oilers hockey will look like.

  9. D says:

    Lowetide:
    The Oilers have been making horrible bets on defensemen for most of a decade now. It’s absolutely astounding.

    For some reason, this coincided with the time when the Oilers were the smartest men in the room.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    I know Derek Roy had some success last year with Yakupov and I haven’t ruled that out yet. But there’s a lot of different things we’re looking at for one of those centers,

    The Oilers should sign Roy.
    They need one more center.
    D-E-P-T-H – Try it, you’ll like it!
    There may be “better” options, but he is the Devil we know.
    Not New Jersey, of course.

  11. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide:
    The Oilers have been making horrible bets on defensemen for most of a decade now. It’s absolutely astounding.

    Sign Sekera and you’re running on the spot. Big step back. Makes Chiarelli’s job harder. Hope MacT is nowhere close to being involved with defensive evaluation anymore

  12. godot10 says:

    I was right on the dementor.

    I was right on Jeff Petry’s AAV. I said he would get at least $5.5 million with duration.

    I will be right on Franson. Franson sucks. Woe to the fans of the team that signs him this summer.

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    I know Derek Roy had some success last year with Yakupov and I haven’t ruled that out yet. But there’s a lot of different things we’re looking at for one of those centers,

    The Oilers should sign Roy.
    They need one more center.
    D-E-P-T-H – Try it, you’ll like it!
    There may be “better” options, but he is the Devil we know.
    Not New Jersey, of course.

    If we assume McDavid hits all of his bonuses, Draisaitl/Nurse hardly hit any of theres(or none), they qualify Marincin, and take Schultz to 85% in arbitration, how much cap room is there? and if you say, dump Purcell in ARI/BUF and buyout Nikitin?

    is Roy at 1M better than Purcell at 4.5? if it means they can sign Michalek or Martin? If you can get Roy and Santorelli together at under 3.5M?

    I really wish we were complaining that MacT did nothing rather than saddle their cap situation with Ference, Nikitin, Purcell, and Schultz

  14. Yeti says:

    godot10:
    I was right on the dementor.

    I was right on Jeff Petry’s AAV.I said he would get at least $5.5 million with duration.

    I will be right on Franson.Franson sucks.Woe to the fans of the team that signs him this summer.

    I remember you clearly on the latter two, but I don’t recall you making so much as a peep on the first one.

  15. fifthcartel says:

    I really want to see the Oilers tweet “Oilers agree to terms with D Cody Franson on a multi-year contract” come 10am July 1st.

  16. Yeti says:

    “I know Derek Roy had some success last year with Yakupov and I haven’t ruled that out yet. But there’s a lot of different things we’re looking at for one of those centers, whether it be someone we draft or someone we acquire or someone who is already in our system.”

    In terms of parsing syntax, I read that quote is saying thanks but no-thanks on Derek Roy.

  17. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Yeti: In terms of parsing syntax, I read that quote is saying thanks but no-thanks on Derek Roy.

    Me too.

    Also, to your previous comment: LOL!

  18. admiralmark says:

    Anybody ever trying to make sense out of asinine or nonsensical statements on here needs to look no further then the McCurdy poll question results today, Close to 10% responded that the Oilers should lock up Schultz to a long term contract south of $5 Million per. Maybe you can attribute a couple to Flames fans? But wow.

  19. Younger Oil says:

    I don’t know why, but Loik Leveille seems like a really good pick, he’s been on my radar for a year and a half now. I know I’m no scout, but he just seems like everything the Oilers need in a prospect now. Seems to be incredibly underrated for what he brings to the table.

    4th on his team in points, 54 in 68 games, 25 more than the next highest defender on his team, 7 in 7 games in the playoffs.

    He put up a similar PPG to Marco Roy (0.81 vs 0.84) as a defender, and we thought that signing Marco Roy was a tough decision. Grabbing this kid in the 3rd/4th round seems like a no brainer to me.

    An ideal first 3 rounds for me:
    #1. McDavid
    #16. Merkeley/Svechnikov
    #33. Rasmus Andersson
    #57. Best Goalie Available
    #79. Alexander Dergachyov
    #86. Vladislav Gavrikov
    #117. Loik Leveille

    Ideally wouldn’t take the goalie, but just put that there because it is likely what the Oilers will do (or trade that pick).

    Your mileage may vary, but it addresses what the Oilers’ prospect pool is most lacking, to me at least.

    This draft is so incredibly good, I am so excited to see what happens. I really hope they make all of the picks we have, we really need them.

  20. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    How do you sign an on the cusp of out of the league player to a key position and make the team better?

    As Oiler fans we can safely expect more now than cast offs and players that nobody wants to employ in the NHL

  21. Lowetide says:

    Yeti:
    “I know Derek Roy had some success last year with Yakupov and I haven’t ruled that out yet. But there’s a lot of different things we’re looking at for one of those centers, whether it be someone we draft or someone we acquire or someone who is already in our system.”

    In terms of parsing syntax, I read that quote is saying thanks but no-thanks on Derek Roy.

    Yes, there was no endorsement either way. The guy is pretty good at speaking without saying anything. Thought Bob asked excellent questions, Chiarelli answered at his own pace, without giving much. Pleasing in one way, madding in another.

  22. Jon K says:

    Don’t forget this post, LT:

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/02/why-for-are-they-trading-petry/

    Thought this was funny as well:

    “JON K says:
    July 2, 2014 at 10:35 pm

    Petry as an UFA will absolutely get 5.0 if he walks at the end of next season.

    It’s funny you mention Niskanen as getting 5.5 because in many ways he and Petry are similar players.

    Petry and Niskanen have similar EVP/60 over their careers, have similar relative CF%, are both around 21mins EV a game. Petry actually plays more at ES than Niskanen.”

    Turns out 5.5 was bang on.

    So the Oilers got 4.5 years NHL service out of Petry. They spent a 45th overall pick on him and acquired the 57th and 117th for dealing him.

    Petry’s handling will go down as one of the reasons MacT only lasted two years on his first stint as a GM.

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Younger Oil,

    How is Leveille ranked so low?

    121 by central scouting. 4th in team scoring, 6’0 223lbs, “skates strikingly well”. Right shot too. I’d be curious to know his big flaws

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=151531

  24. mujidog says:

    How does MacT, a former coach, miss so bad on Petry and JSchultz (and Nikitin)????? HOW???

  25. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    They have to draft a defenseman with #16. BPA and all but the trade market being illiquid means the BPA needs to be a clear choice if he’s not in a position of team needs.

    It’s too hard to fill holes in key positions with quality simply by trading at the moment.

  26. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Younger Oil,

    How is Leveille ranked so low?

    121 by central scouting. 4th in team scoring, 6’0 223lbs, “skates strikingly well”. Right shot too. I’d be curious to know his big flaws

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=151531

    Wasn’t it a fitness concern?

  27. Yeti says:

    Lowetide: Yes, there was no endorsement either way. The guy is pretty good at speaking without saying anything. Thought Bob asked excellent questions, Chiarelli answered at his own pace, without giving much. Pleasing in one way, madding in another.

    To be honest, as maddening as it is to us fans desperate for clues, I’m rather glad he isn’t telegraphing his moves or making specific promises. We’ve had a few bad experiences with that in recent memory.

  28. anonymous says:

    Nelson saved Yak. Yak couldn’t play for Eakins because he was benched after every mistake, warranted or not. Roy is circumstantial, Mcdavid or Lander will do. Just needs confidence. Actually think RNH would be the way to go.

  29. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    I’m so disappointed in MacT in regards to Petry. He will be the poster boy for his failure.

    The lottery win sparked the changes but I will not be surprised if it comes out that the Petry bungling cost MacT his job because of how well he did for Montreal. And really that level of misjudgement means he isn’t cut out for GM.

    Experience is one thing but you can’t teach what he missed there. You either understand hockey or you don’t. Players only need to understand their part of the game and that is likely why being a player doesn’t always equate with being a good manager.

  30. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: Wasn’t it a fitness concern?

    are you thinking of Rasmus Andersson?

    or are there two highly productive 6’0 220 RHD in the CHL with fitness issues keeping them back? draft em both

    just for fun I’d like to see what Ricki’s numbers say about both

  31. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    LadiesloveSmid: are you thinking of Rasmus Andersson?

    or are there two highly productive 6’0 220 RHD in the CHL with fitness issues keeping them back? draft em both

    I’m not sure but if you are 17 and 6 feet and at that weight you are either a freak of nature, overweight, or on the juice. The first one doesn’t count.

  32. rich says:

    fifthcartel:
    I really want to see the Oilers tweet “Oilers agree to terms with D Cody Franson on a multi-year contract” come 10am July 1st.

    If the Oilers sign Franson, I predict the fans will have a hate on for him worse than Gilbert or Petry or Poti. For better or worse, many of the fans would prefer to have a d-man who will hit versus one who can make a 10′ pass. Franson does not hit.

    You’re getting a 3rd pairing d-man in Franson. Not a top pairing, and not a 2nd pairing, but a 3rd pairing d-man. This will be a very unhappy marriage and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth. Book it.

  33. sliderule says:

    I listened to interview and the thing I was so impressed with was how to tell grit.

    Chia said the only way you can measure it was by observation.Bob asked if the interview process helped but Chia said they have all been coached to give right answers so it’s no help..

  34. pts2pndr says:

    Young stars tournament in Penticton. First chance to see McDavid in Oiler Uniform.. Will get my tickets as soon as they are available. Ticket package 60 dollars for all games including three Edmonton games.No bad seats! Civic leaders have no comprehension they won the lottery! Priceless!

  35. AsiaOil says:

    Petry’s handling will go down as one of the reasons MacT only lasted two years on his LAST stint as a GM. Fixed that for you 🙂

    Jon K:
    Don’t forget this post, LT:

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/02/why-for-are-they-trading-petry/

    Petry’s handling will go down as one of the reasons MacT only lasted two years on his first stint as a GM.

  36. rickithebear says:

    Calling not signing a career 2.87 evga/60 a failure.
    Is a failure of the individual not knowing that Dmen play defence.
    6 @ 5.5 M
    Smart call MacT.

    As we know a study was done and determined that d influence ga by only +/- 1.3%
    It was stated d have limited affect.
    Taking .917 Save %
    That range is .904 to .930
    Limited!

    Defencemen should be god at Defence.

  37. rich says:

    Also, am very happy for Petry. Got what he deserved from a first class org in Montreal.

    May MacT never, ever be allowed to evaluate d-men again. There is no excuse for his complete mishandling of the situation. Thank God he is no longer a GM.

  38. smellyglove says:

    The Petry debacle is blood on Mact’s hands.

    One poster said it best a few months ago: there should be a correlation between what Petry was traded for and what he ultimately signs for.

    Based on the return, 2nd and 5th round picks, Petry should be a borderline second pairing D-man, perhaps a third pairing on a playoff squad.

    Well my friends. Petry performed well as a #3 D-man on a deep squad and is getting top 3 dollars. The egg is on Mact’s face as that should have yielded a 1st round pick, at least.

  39. Cyanide says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: I’m not sure but if you are 17 and 6 feet and at that weight you are either a freak of nature, overweight, or on the juice. The first one doesn’t count.

    Actually I read an Article a while back, as some one mention Loik before.
    He was under 10% body fat at 6′ 223 lbs. Out of everything I read he was moved around teams alot in his younger CHL days. (mostly for trades of first OA picks or first round picks). He and his parent developed a bad attitude of sorts. Where he finally landed they gave him a bigger role this yr, he succeeded. Past history is for his low draft #
    Edit: there was mention of how he need to work on his backwards skating, but has improved immensely this yr on it. His forward skatin is very impressive

  40. John Chambers says:

    rich: If the Oilers sign Franson, I predict the fans will have a hate on for him worse than Gilbert or Petry or Poti.For better or worse, many of the fans would prefer to have a d-man who will hit versus one who can make a 10′ pass.Franson does not hit.

    You’re getting a 3rd pairing d-man in Franson.Not a top pairing, and not a 2nd pairing, but a 3rd pairing d-man.This will be a very unhappy marriage and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth.Book it.

    Franson seems like an okay bet if he’s making less than $5M over 5 years or less. Big D men who can QB a powerplay rightfully deserve to get paid – they just shouldn’t be put I a position where they’re playing 22 mins a night against the other team’s best. Ideally if the Oilers get Franson for say $25M over 5, they also move out Schultz to free up the cap space. Franson may not be the panacea, but he’s better than Schultz.

    The panacea appears to be Sekara. Amazing that a guy who was obtained two offseasons ago for a 2nd round pick looks to be getting $6M or so as a UFA. My feeling is that if you’re going to overpay for a guy it may as we’ll be the right guy, and in this case that’s Sekara who is among the world’s best 100 or so defensemen, meaning at worst he’s an overpaid mid-pair guy on a team with bad defensemen.

  41. Hockey Buddha says:

    I don’t think that MacT missed it on Petry. Rather, I think that Petry made it quite clear to MacT that he wanted out of Edmonton. Petry has said as much publicly to the media in Montreal since moving there (cut and paste this link: http://www.rds.ca/vid%C3%A9os/hockey/lnh/canadiens/montr%C3%A9al-mon-premier-choix-3.1134750 – about the 6:50 mark of the video provides some insight).

    There is also a truism in hockey that all players on a perennial losing team are undervalued, whereas many players on a Stanley Cup winning team are often overvalued. Unfortunately for the Oilers, the going rate for Petry at the deadline was a second and a conditional fifth rounder. The Habs got a good deal on Petry because he wanted out. It happens with some players who decide to enter the FA market and test their options. It’s that simple.

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear:
    Calling not signing a career 2.87 evga/60 a failure.
    Is a failure of the individual not knowing that Dmen play defence.
    6 @ 5.5 M
    Smart call MacT.

    As we know a study was done and determined that d influence ga by only +/- 1.3%
    It was stated d have limited affect.
    Taking .917 Save %
    That range is .904 to .930
    Limited!

    Defencemen should be god at Defence.

    so is price a .907 behind Edmonton’s defence? or is he a .946 goalie in front of Nashville’s defence?

    assuming either Price is behind a great defence and Edmonton’s is terrible or Price is behind an average defence and Nashville’s is great

  43. John Chambers says:

    smellyglove:
    The Petry debacle is blood on Mact’s hands.

    One poster said it best a few months ago: there should be a correlation between what Petry was traded for and what he ultimately signs for.

    Based on the return, 2nd and 5th round picks, Petry should be a borderline second pairing D-man, perhaps a third pairing on a playoff squad.

    Well my friends. Petry performed well as a #3 D-man on a deep squad and is getting top 3 dollars. The egg is on Mact’s face as that should have yielded a 1st round pick, at least.

    The way I read it Petry’s agent engineered a 1-year contract in order to hit the motherlode as a UFA and they did so successfully.

    We’ll never know but it would be awfully stupid for MacT to have taken the risk of a 1-year deal on his own – that may be the case, but don’t underestimate the role Petry’s camp played in the outcome.

  44. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    smellyglove:
    The Petry debacle is blood on Mact’s hands.

    One poster said it best a few months ago: there should be a correlation between what Petry was traded for and what he ultimately signs for.

    Based on the return, 2nd and 5th round picks, Petry should be a borderline second pairing D-man, perhaps a third pairing on a playoff squad.

    Well my friends. Petry performed well as a #3 D-man on a deep squad and is getting top 3 dollars. The egg is on Mact’s face as that should have yielded a 1st round pick, at least.

    This is true, and I think MacT got punked. This is a big part of the problem with the on camera stream of consciousness that used to go on, tipped his hand repeatedly. Really a trait of a player giving interviews as opposed to what a manager needs to learn to do.

    I am sure Bergevin knew he was getting quality and obviously was pleased given the signing, but was probably surprised at how well that trade came off for him. Nobody undervalued Petry more than the Oilers. I am so thankful we have a new regime seemingly.

  45. Younger Oil says:

    Cyanide: Actually I read an Article a while back, as some one mention Loik before.
    He was under 10% body fat at 6′ 223 lbs. Out of everything I read he was moved around teams alot in his younger CHL days. (mostly for trades of first OA picks or first round picks). He and his parent developed a bad attitude of sorts. Where he finally landed they gave him a bigger role this yr he succeeded. Past history is for his low draft #

    This is exactly what I heard as well. His reasons for falling seem quite similar to Greg Chase, to me at least. I’ve never heard a critique of his actual game play. Perhaps consistency at the beginning of the season, but after he settled in he was very, VERY good.

    I normally would be shouting for a D at #16, but there is just so much quality on the blue line slated to go in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. And I know I’m not a scout, but I can’t see a whole lot of difference between Roy/Pilon/Chabot and Andersson/Leveille, and Kylington if he does fall as much as some people are thinking. Meier/Svechnikov/Merkeley is who I target at #16 for that reason.

  46. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    John Chambers: The way I read it Petry’s agent engineered a 1-year contract in order to hit the motherlode as a UFA and they did so successfully.

    We’ll never know but it would be awfully stupid for MacT to have taken the risk of a 1-year deal on his own – that may be the case, but don’t underestimate the role Petry’s camp played in the outcome.

    At the end of the day management bungling lead to this. Drafted players are loyal and sign good deals unless they are shooting the lights out and even still.

    He was handled wrongly in every way including not capitalizing on his offensive abilities. The only saving grace is he’s not Doughty and it lead to McDavid……………………….

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  47. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Getting McDavid is so monumentally fate altering for the franchise that it is truly hitting the reset button. Nothing after 2006 matters now, only what happens going forward. Everything important has changed for the better.

  48. Cyanide says:

    Younger Oil: This is exactly what I heard as well. His reasons for falling seem quite similar to Greg Chase, to me at least. I’ve never heard a critique of his actual game play. Perhaps consistency at the beginning of the season, but after he settled in he was very, VERY good.

    I normally would be shouting for a D at #16, but there is just so much quality on the blue line slated to go in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. And I know I’m not a scout, but I can’t see a whole lot of difference between Roy/Pilon/Chabot and Andersson/Leveille, and Kylington if he does fall as much as some people are thinking. Meier/Svechnikov/Merkeley is who I target at #16 for that reason.

    Man I wish I could find that Article. I’m pretty sure some one of high repute, said he would not be surprised to see him go in the second round. Also statingto get him in the 3/4 round would be a big steal for a team.

  49. blainer says:

    Was watching the Tampa game the other night and my good buddy who likes the Habs says to me… where did that Petry guy come from.. he then goes on to say that the habs should have cut down on PK’s ice time and given it to Petry… on and on he goes about his skating positioning and passing skills.. All I could do was shake my head.. thank Gord it got us CMD and some new management…

  50. Younger Oil says:

    Cyanide: Man I wish I could find that Article. I’m pretty sure some one of high repute, said he would not be surprised to see him go in the second round. Also statingto get him in the 3/4 round would be a big steal for a team.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/118803/2015-nhl-draft-screaming-eagles-leveille-making-sure-late-96-status-doesnt-hurt-draft-stock/

    That’s the best one I could find on him. Also forgot to mention he’s one of the older players in the draft as well, but he was productive on his Draft -1 season when he got traded so I don’t see it as a huge issue.

  51. Younger Oil says:

    I’m by no means excusing the management, but imagine if we kept Petry, and got enough points to pass Toronto in the standings, so they got Babcock AND McDavid.

    That would likely be the darkest timeline.

  52. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”
    Drafted players are loyal and sign good deals unless they are shooting the lights out and even still.

    Because only the fans hate nepotism, losing by gross, and the coach-of-the-month pin-up calendar.

  53. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: Because only the fans hate nepotism, losing by gross, and the coach-of-the-month pin-up calendar.

    Que?

  54. rickithebear says:

    To even mention Petry in the same breath as Marincin defensively is disgraceful.
    Marincin
    13-14 1st comp 2.08 Evga/60
    14-15 2nd comp 2.04

    Disgraceful!

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/04/tracking-point-production-fluctuation.html

    WHL splits for 1st and 2nd half of the season. Not sure if it’s of any use, but somewhat interesting nonetheless.

  56. G Money says:

    rickithebear: Calling not signing a career 2.87 evga/60 a failure.
    Is a failure of the individual not knowing that Dmen play defence.

    rickithebear: To even mention Petry in the same breath as Marincin defensively is disgraceful.
    Marincin

    Or, you can accept reality, which is that EVGA is a disgraceful way of assessing defensemen, and that anyone doing so is undergoing a failure of the individual in not understanding that EVGA is a metric dominated by goalie performance and not the defenseman’s performance.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/dont-use-evga-for-evaluating-defensemen-just-dont/

    If you don’t want to read the article, I deconstruct Mark Streit of the Philadelphia Flyers this year.

    In front of Steve Mason, he was an EVGA/60 of 1.94.

    In front of Ray Emery, he was an EVGA/60 of 3.04.

    According to Rickistats, Streit was therefore horrible in front of Emery, but pretty darn good in front of Mason. And he managed that feat even though Streit and his teammates gave up fewer shot attempts, fewer shots, and fewer scoring chances in front of Emery than in front of Mason.

    Don’t ever use EVGA for assessing defensemen. Just don’t do it. It leads you to extraordinarily dumb conclusions like “Petry is not good” or “Marincin is just as good as Petry”.

    (To understand why the numbers look this way, here are the sv%’s: Emery 2014-15 EV sv% 91.27, Mason 94.37. There’s your “EVGA”).

  57. Loyal2theoil says:

    Todd Nelson could join Oilers Coaching staff as per the score.

  58. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: Because only the fans hate nepotism, losing by gross, and the coach-of-the-month pin-up calendar.

    I am not saying the last contract was not Petry’s wish, but the one before was an unnecessary insult and I think at that point he had established and would have signed to a great value contract. His leaving didn’t start with him IMO which was my point 🙂

  59. Pouzar says:

    David Staples ‏@dstaples 22m22 minutes ago
    Nelson in talks with McLellan to come back to #Oilers bench, Dreger reports.

  60. v4ance says:

    Pouzar,

    From Dreger’s Insider Trading segment (about 46 seconds in):
    http://www.tsn.ca/video/insider-trading-leafs-still-searching-for-new-gm-1.298231

  61. Pouzar says:

    v4ance,

    Would love to see him on the bench in EDM but part of me would love to see him in Bakersfield more.

  62. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    “From a cap space perspective, yes [next summer Oilers are better placed], but from the situations of other teams and the timeliness it might be a good time now to get some stuff done. So you have to balance the two.”

    This is music to my ears. An understanding stated that you have to strike when the iron is hot. The windows open rarely and for short times to make bigger moves that aren’t prohibitively expensive.

  63. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Hockey Buddha:
    I don’t think that MacT missed it on Petry.Rather, I think that Petry made it quite clear to MacT that he wanted out of Edmonton.Petry has said as much publicly to the media in Montreal since moving there (cut and paste this link: http://www.rds.ca/vid%C3%A9os/hockey/lnh/canadiens/montr%C3%A9al-mon-premier-choix-3.1134750 – about the 6:50 mark of the video provides some insight).

    There is also a truism in hockey that all players on a perennial losing team are undervalued, whereas many players on a Stanley Cup winning team are often overvalued.Unfortunately for the Oilers, the going rate for Petry at the deadline was a second and a conditional fifth rounder.The Habs got a good deal on Petry because he wanted out.It happens with some players who decide to enter the FA market and test their options.It’s that simple.

    You conveniently left out the fact that MacT publicly challenged Petry and gave him a one year deal heading straight into UFA status at less money than Schultz when the RFA pecking order was clearly in Petry’s favour. MacT gave Petry a big Eff You, and then saddled him with Eakins who inexplicably scratched him. Then, all winter Petry and his agent receive no overtures from MacT/management, leaving him perplexed.

    Come January, it would be no wonder at all if Petry said he wanted out of Edmonton at that point, just 3 months from being a free man of the clowns running the show. It sounded like he felt a bit better under Nelson, but it was too late.

    And then the gem from MacT: Petry has really stepped up his game. Someone is going to get a real nice defenseman. Game, set, match.

    Petry goes on to experience playoff hockey in a great town and never looks back. Happy for him.

    MacT? He couldn’t have butchered the defense anymore than he did. QO for Schultz this year is $3.675M? Are you kidding me? Before the signing I said Subban’s 2-year RFA bridge deal should have been the benchmark. Schultz got $1M too much and the Oilers are in a pickle. Ference got too much term and a NMC. Nikitin got Stralman/Petry’s money and they gave up a 5th rounder to get a jump on signing him for a horrendous overpayment and we all can’t wait to buy him out or send him on his way.

    MacT absolutely murdered the Oilers’ blueline setup going forward. He took a sawed off shotgun and blew it to pieces. The problem was the guy was STILL clueless about the blue. That season-ender presser where he said Klef-Schultz top pairing and the D will be mostly status quo — I bet that raised some eyebrows for Nicholson during his audit.

    Nikitin, Ference, Schultz = half of your defense cannot play defense at the NHL level anymore (or never could) . Klefbom is good but still very young. Fayne is a solid bottom pairing guy and a decent #4 in a pinch. Marincin is good, but also young and also completely misunderstood and undervalued by the organization.

    Chiarelli has his work cut out for him to fix this mess. Waiting for Nurse’s arrival isn’t the solution.

  64. pocession charge says:

    v4ance:
    Pouzar,

    From Dreger’s Insider Trading segment (about 46 seconds in):
    http://www.tsn.ca/video/insider-trading-leafs-still-searching-for-new-gm-1.298231

    I wonder why any decent GM would want that job with Neely, er, Shanahan breathing down your neck and interfering at every turn.

  65. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    One more little rant about this then I’m done.

    I said it before and will say it again.

    The Oilers have made a habit of spending picks and years developing players and then jettisoning them for no good reason, doing other teams a huge favour.

    Brodziak
    Cogliano
    Dubnyk
    Petry

    Nail it with a 2006 second rounder, develop him into a top 4 defenseman heading into his prime years at 27-33, trade him for another second rounder and a conditional fourth and reset the process while he goes on to play his best years for another team.

    And some people wonder why this rebuild kept spinning its wheels.

  66. Klima's_Bucket says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I didn’t think there was any possible way to assemble such an atrocious situation for the defence.
    Why is MacT still working for the organization?

  67. striatic says:

    As much as Petry’s playoff performance and subsequent signing are a big ‘told you so” moment for the collective wisdom of the Oilogosphere and its commentariat, you’ve got to wonder if MacT is still thinking “Ha. Habs overpaid.”

    Got to wonder.

    What a nightmare. Petry’s final Oilers contract was against all logic. Can you Imagine how much stronger a position the Oilers would be in with Petry signed to a long term value contract last year? Instead MacT played games and was deservedly fired as a result but the damage is done and possibly undoable.

  68. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    striatic: against all logic

    Oilogical.

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    One more little rant about this then I’m done.

    I said it before and will say it again.

    The Oilers have made a habit of spending picks and years developing players and then jettisoning them for no good reason, doing other teams a huge favour.

    Brodziak
    Cogliano
    Dubnyk
    Petry

    Nail it with a 2006 second rounder, develop him into a top 4 defenseman heading into his prime years at 27-33, trade him for another second rounder and a conditional fourth and reset the process while he goes on to play his best years for another team.

    And some people wonder why this rebuild kept spinning its wheels.

    I like to think Gagner will go on to have a pretty good career too.

  70. Klima's_Bucket says:

    striatic: Instead MacT played games and was deservedly fired

    MacT was fired???
    Last I heard he still had an office on Kingsway.

  71. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar: Nelson in talks with McLellan to come back to #Oilers bench, Dreger reports.

    Because why get just one Todd, when you can make it a double? This takes the sting off the Petry contract today, for me. I like Nelson, and think he’ll be a great pairing with McL.

  72. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Nikitin, Ference, Schultz = half of your defense cannot play defense at the NHL level anymore (or never could) . Klefbom is good but still very young. Fayne is a solid bottom pairing guy and a decent #4 in a pinch. Marincin is good, but also young and also completely misunderstood and undervalued by the organization.

    Of those three, it is Ference who needs to go. Desperately.

    Both Schultz and Nikitin have some redeeming qualities.

    Schultz, despite our hatred of his Jultzing and his brain farts, when he’s on the ice the puck is often moving in the right direction. It’s easy to attribute this to his teammates, but it’s interesting to look at EV WOWYs to see if this is supported:

    With Ebs: 50.9 Without Ebs: 49.6 Ebs without Schultz: 50.0 – they both do better together

    With Hall: 52.9 W/O Hall: 49.3 Hall W/O Schultz: 49.0 – again, better together

    Marincin and Jultz had a small sample size (three games equivalent or so) together, but knocked it out of the park at 56.9 CF.

    It’s a fairly consistent theme. Despite our frustration with him, it’s instructive to remember that three different coaches, at least one and a half of them respected, all played Schultz more heavily than any other defender. (You could argue both MacT and Tambo insisted on this, but I find that hard to believe).

    Of course, you have to take this stuff with a grain of salt. But there is a consistent theme there. The stats and the eyes do not agree, but the eyes have a habit of tracking for confirmation bias. Jultz does some good stuff. If he comes back on a decent contract (< $3M), I’d like to see what TMc can do with him.

    As for Nikitin, it’s not quite so cut and dried. He looked bad often, but
    – he has a dangerous point shot on the PP
    – I’m convinced he, like Hall, came back too soon from injury. I thought he looked decent before getting injured (small sample size to be sure)
    – he has this tiny sample (62 mins, or about three to four games worth) with Marincin, but together they were 54.9%, Nikitin w/o was 48.0, and Marincin w/o was 48.0. That’s good enough to be worth investigating. If health + chemistry with Shady works out, the team is vastly better off. And if not, he’s gone by end of year anyway. He also had decent chemistry with Fayne (49.6, easily the best numbers put up by Fayne this year). So Nikitin-Fayne might also be a pairing worth investigating.

    So put it all together, and there is at least a sliver of support that you might cobble together a decent bottom 4 D out of Fayne, Marincin, Nikitin, and Schultz. The key is to ensure that Nikitin and Schultz are never on the ice together (42.7 together, both vastly better apart from each other).

    That leaves Chia Pete needing to find a capable partner for Klefbomb on the top pairing. It’s not a particularly good defense, but it might be an OK one for a year.

    But Ference … Oh Captain my Captain. Almost every player is better off without Ference than with him (a few are more or less the same, that’s the best case). In some cases, the difference is almost shocking (e.g. Perron w 49 Ference w/o is 44.4 and Perron w/o is 56.3. Holy crap. How do you even do that?)

    The only reason Ference looked even remotely capable last year is because of Petry.

    The biggest favour he could possibly do this team is to retire. Addition by subtraction.

    FSN is a problem. But SN might not be so bad in bottom 4 time with the right partners … it’s when the other guy is on the ice that means we’re truly F’d.

  73. dangilitis says:

    I am in the camp of the majority here that thinks that Petry was poor asset management from the get go.

    However, 5.5 x 6 for a player who should slot in as your #3-4 defender for now, likely peaking here and declining to #4-5 for the last 1-2 years of the contract, is that at a price that a winning club needs on their team? I am asking because the Oilers could clearly welcome back someone who can fill that role, but the relatively static cap complicates things for a team that should be building a cup contender. 5.5 right now is not quite on par with top pairing money but there are lots of teams with top pairing D-men making comparable coin, and represents an overpay for a player type that should not be sucking up that much of the money. That also means that your team has set the bar for a 1st line D pairing to be making 15 million.

    The travesty is that many teams can still make it under the cap with bad contracts, but I would have rather have kept a “bad contract” for Petry, who can serve a valuable role, than bad contracts for Schultz and Nikitin.

  74. striatic says:

    Also, kudos to Stauffer on the Chiarelli interview. Only had a few minutes and got in all the important questions.

    Kudos to Chiarelli for bringing up Roy, essentially unprompted.

    Kudos to LT for reminding us that injuries happen. Having Roy on the roster could salvage the season in the event of Injuries down the middle.

    Still a big fan of having Roy return. Yak likes him and he has the speed and skill to cycle the puck down low with minimal physical contact. He goes to the quote unquote “tough areas” without being a quote unquote “tough player”. Like Chiarelli has been repeating over and over, there are different ways to play tough and one of the most underrated ways is avoiding physical contact but *without avoiding responsibilities*.

  75. striatic says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: MacT was fired???
    Last I heard he still had an office on Kingsway.

    Of this I am well aware.

    But he was fired, let there be no doubt about that.

  76. G Money says:

    dangilitis,

    I don’t think anyone is thinking that 5.5 is good value for Petry. It is at best OK value, and maybe even a modest UFA overpay. But it’s also independent of the other bad contracts. One should not have affected the other.

    So ultimately what we’re tearing our hair out over is that MacT could have had Petry signed for way less.

    I’m not sure I want Petry at $5.5M either.

    But last year, the eyes of many confirmed Petry was the Oilers best D and had been for quite a while. So did the numbers. He was at the age that he was just reaching his peak. That was the time to sign him to a value long term contract. And I’m sure Petry would have signed.

    But MacT was so blind and so stubborn and so incapable of assessing defensemen that he refused to do it.

    I suppose in the grand scheme of things, that was part of what ultimately got us McDavid then Chia then TMc. Counting blessings . . .

  77. striatic says:

    dangilitis: However, 5.5 x 6 for a player who should slot in as your #3-4 defender for now, likely peaking here and declining to #4-5 for the last 1-2 years of the contract, is that at a price that a winning club needs on their team?

    Because of the term, it isn’t that bad. The back half of that contract will be good value as the cap ticks up over the six years. Montreal is building a cup contender but they are trying to building a long term cup contender. Possible in a cap world without having periodic purges like the Hawks have had? Don’t know, but the Habs look like they are going to give it a go and locking in a strong defensive foundation is key to that effort – see Oilers, Edmonton.

  78. Lewis Grant says:

    OK, this has been driving me crazy since forever.

    How many rookies have ever maxed out on their bonuses? I’d guess maybe 3. Ever.

    Schedule A bonuses are not that easy. Examples include 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, 0.73 PPG. How many rookies have gotten 60 points in the cap era? I can think of maybe 5 offhand. CMD is likely, Drai is not. And they max out at $850K anyways. Added to a $900K base, that’s $1.7M. Only a select few will max these out.

    Schedule B bonuses require a player to be in the top ten in the entire league in goals, assists, points, or PPG to qualify, or to finish in the top 3 for the Calder. (I’m assuming that a high finish for any other league-wide award is out of the question, at least for a forward.) Again, CMD has a good chance (if they write his contract that way), Drai possible but not likely.

    Very few rookies will max out their rookie bonuses. I don’t think any of the Oilers’ #1 OV picks even came close.

    Am I wrong? (If not, can we stop pencilling in every single rookie at $3.775M?)

    http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

  79. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    Great post, G-Money. And actually, I’ve consistently said I don’t want Schultz traded. I think he has solid upside still. My issue was with the contract. I have said a few times I want to see Schultz paired with a bona fide vet who can calm the waters (no, not Ference, but like Martin type or what have you). That contract has just put the Oilers in a bind and Schultz has all the cards here.

    As for Nikitin, I didn’t like the bet made or the cap hit at the time. The eye test saw him slow and unable to keep up, but he could recover if healthy. I don’t believe you can bank on a healthy Nikitin when you have serious back issues as a concern. It’s such a hard thing to fix.

    You can have a bottom four that has two of Schultz and a Nikitin-type, yes, although we disagree on Nikitin himself.

    But again, never have I said we need to get rid of Schultz. I’ve always been pissed off by that signing last summer. It was sloppy, lazy, and also probably helped send Petry away.

  80. striatic says:

    G Money: I suppose in the grand scheme of things, that was part of what ultimately got us McDavid then Chia then TMc. Counting blessings . . .

    Are we even sure about that? The Oilers would have been better with Petry but the Leafs still ended the season with a 6 point gap on the Oilers. Not sure that keeping keeping Petry would have equated to a full 6 points post trade deadline. Would have been close, and maybe the Oil have to intentionally tank a bit in the last couple games but I don’t think keeping Petry for 19 more games would have gotten the Oilers to 4th.

  81. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    On the Petry signing for less as well as this notion that letting Petry go was part of what got us McDavid, I think this:

    5 x $4.5M (Stralman deal) last summer would have done it. That ship sailed with the 1 x $3M low-ball.

    Petry’s leaving had nothing to do with the Oilers landing McDavid. Nothing. If you’re talking in general terms that incompetent management (such as evinced by the handling of Petry) is what got us McDavid, fine. But having Petry in the line-up after the deadline would not have bumped the Oilers’ draft number, in my opinion.

    We could have had both Petry and McDavid.

    As for that bringing us Chiarelli? Quite possible.

    Edit-Striatic beat me to it. It’s nice to console ourselves with McDavid, but we could have had both McDavid AND Petry.

  82. misfit says:

    striatic:
    Also, kudos to Stauffer on the Chiarelli interview. Only had a few minutes and got in all the important questions.

    Kudos to Chiarelli for bringing up Roy, essentially unprompted.

    Kudos to LT for reminding us that injuries happen. Having Roy on the roster could salvage the season in the event of Injuries down the middle.

    Still a big fan of having Roy return. Yak likes him and he has the speed and skill to cycle the puck down low with minimal physical contact. He goes to the quote unquote “tough areas” without being a quote unquote “tough player”. Like Chiarelli has been repeating over and over, there are different ways to play tough and one of the most underrated ways is avoiding physical contact but *without avoiding responsibilities*.

    I love that you typed out “quote unquote” as well as using the quotation marks. Or rather, I love that you typed out quote unquote “quote unquote” as well as using the quotation marks.

  83. striatic says:

    misfit: I love that you typed out “quote unquote” as well as using the quotation marks. Or rather, I love that you typed out quote unquote “quote unquote” as well as using the quotation marks.

    You’re welcome.

    Hey, I really wanted to get across how quote unquote “cliche” those terms are and went for the suspenders/belt combination.

  84. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    P.S. I think this cements Sekera getting $6M or more on a 6-year deal unless Lombardi strikes again.

    Seabrook? He’s going to command $6.5-$7M on a 7/8yr deal. (Boychuk+)

  85. striatic says:

    If I’m Chiarelli, and I’m not, I’d give Sekera 6×6 in a heartbeat.

  86. G Money says:

    striatic,
    NYCOIL "Taking Photos",

    The main point is that if Petry had signed long term for reasonable dollars

    a. it would have meant MacT had his head on straight as far as assessing D talent goes
    b. he probably doesn’t get healthy scratched for stupid reasons and plays better the entire season, not just contributing extra for the last 19 games
    c. which also implies that MacT doesn’t sign Nikitin. Maybe he even pulls his head out of his ass long enough to sign Stralman instead.

    Collectively, does that take us out of third? I’d say pretty much unequivocally it would have.

    As I said: But MacT was so blind and so stubborn and so incapable of assessing defensemen that he refused to do it.
    I suppose in the grand scheme of things, that was part of what ultimately got us McDavid then Chia then TMc.

    To sum up: it’s not the simple presence/absence of Petry that makes the difference. It is the incredibly flawed thought process that led to undervaluing/devaluing Petry in the first place. Improve on/change/remove that, and the Oilers are an improved team, without a doubt. Probably more than enough to take over TO, maybe even more than that.

    That’s my drift …

  87. Adam Wu says:

    Godot.

    Stop pretending you were “right” about Eakins.

    You were not.

    You were the proverbial stopped clock on Eakins.

    99% of the things you said about him were demonstrably wrong at the time you said it, and remain so now.

    90% of the things you said about Eakins were undemonstrable slanders than no decent humane human being should ever say of another.

    And trying to compare a man who was unsuccessful at coaching one particular hockey team at the highest level to a fictional entity described in the source material as “among the foulest creatures that walk this earth. They infest the darkest, filthiest places, they glory in decay and despair, they drain peace, hope, and happiness out of the air around them…” is also something that no decent humane human being should ever be doing to another person.

    You should be ashamed of yourself.

    And it’s not even true. For one thing, Dallas Eakins isn’t repulsed by Patronus Charms.

  88. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    Sure, that I can agree with. As I wrote above, “If you’re talking in general terms that incompetent management (such as evinced by the handling of Petry) is what got us McDavid, fine.”

  89. wheatnoil says:

    Lewis Grant:
    OK, this has been driving me crazy since forever.

    How many rookies have ever maxed out on their bonuses?I’d guess maybe 3.Ever.

    Schedule A bonuses are not that easy.Examples include 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, 0.73 PPG.How many rookies have gotten 60 points in the cap era?I can think of maybe 5 offhand.CMD is likely, Drai is not.And they max out at $850K anyways.Added to a $900K base, that’s $1.7M.Only a select few will max these out.

    Schedule B bonuses require a player to be in the top ten in the entire league in goals, assists, points, or PPG to qualify, or to finish in the top 3 for the Calder.(I’m assuming that a high finish for any other league-wide award is out of the question, at least for a forward.)Again, CMD has a good chance (if they write his contract that way), Drai possible but not likely.

    Very few rookies will max out their rookie bonuses.I don’t think any of the Oilers’ #1 OV picks even came close.

    Am I wrong?(If not, can we stop pencilling in every single rookie at $3.775M?)

    http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

    You’re right that it’s quite difficult to max out on the bonuses, generally speaking.

    Hall likely did during the last year of his ELC (9th in the league in points). Schultz likely hit his Schedule “B” bonuses in his rookie season (tied for 8th in goals by a defenseman in the lockout shortened season). So it’s definitely not unheard of, but you’ve got to have a very successful rookie who is batting high in the line-up. Draisaitl is highly unlikely to bat high enough in the line-up. McDavid has a good chance to, though. Ovechkin and Crosby did. Famously, Toews won the Conn Smythe in the last year of his ELC, activating his $2M bonus and pushing the Blackhawks over the salary cap, contributing to their cap troubles due to the carry over to the following year.

    Those $2M Schedule ‘B’ bonuses are the main issues. I’m with Woodguy, McDavid’s the only one we need to worry about next year. The following years, though? Who knows.

  90. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    Or, you can accept reality, which is that EVGA is a disgraceful way of assessing defensemen, and that anyone doing so is undergoing a failure of the individual in not understanding that EVGA is a metric dominated by goalie performance and not the defenseman’s performance.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/dont-use-evga-for-evaluating-defensemen-just-dont/

    If you don’t want to read the article, I deconstruct Mark Streit of the Philadelphia Flyers this year.

    In front of Steve Mason, he was an EVGA/60 of 1.94.

    In front of Ray Emery, he was an EVGA/60 of 3.04.

    According to Rickistats, Streit was therefore horrible in front of Emery, but pretty darn good in front of Mason.And he managed that feat even though Streit and his teammates gave up fewer shot attempts, fewer shots, and fewer scoring chances in front of Emery than in front of Mason.

    Don’t ever use EVGA for assessing defensemen.Just don’t do it.It leads you to extraordinarily dumb conclusions like “Petry is not good” or “Marincin is just as good as Petry”.

    (To understand why the numbers look this way, here are the sv%’s: Emery 2014-15 EV sv% 91.27, Mason 94.37.There’s your “EVGA”).

    Did you go to the shot chart and look at every GA.

    G money.

    The stat is a tool that makes you you look at the shot charts and video and it says
    my god he skates well, he pressures the cycle, he blocks well, he hits well and he gets fucking beat a lot!

    Of coarse there is a correlation between the goalie and 2 D.
    But a d that lets the opposition target the open areas of the net is not on my fucking team.

    You seem real bright!

    It is not just math.
    Look at the fucking body mechanics you…………
    If you are going to spend money on a D.

    when you guys get done with all the shot distance metrics.
    that is about the quality of D. it comes down to D who keep at Distance and get reduced Save % by allowing a lower targeting time.

    The goalie is about saves in elevation
    JFrollk your next works needs to be Shots in elevation.

    The defensive affect is about .904-.930
    the gaol save % is about .912-.922
    Get elite Goale
    But better off with EliteD.

    His best was average with Smid.
    without Smid a F…….. nightmare.

    The best Example of Open hole scoring was Eakins turning the best goalie in the league into a fucking nightmare.
    yet he is the best in the league in a tradition team with low open hole shots allowed.

    with there being such a low open hole shot rate and minimal variance from below average to elite goalies open hole save rate. A goalie shitting the bed is on the open hole shots is going to be a factor.

    Before I look at your article.

    I would elect you to look at every shot; the mechanics of the shots; Elevation locations of the shots…….. to determine why fro every data point.

    I look forward to that break down in your article.
    Which I will now read.
    and
    I look forward posting I was wrong.

  91. striatic says:

    Regarding Sekera, I’ve looked at all the bubbles and charts and even, shock, watched the man play hockey on the TV but one of the more impressive things, even though it is a flawed stat, is his +4 on the 2013-2014 Carolina Hurricanes and mere -7 on the truly, truly Abysmal 2014-2015 Carolina Hurricanes. Any player that can pull that off has legitimate value.

  92. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, not one word you say supports your argument.

    Why do I need to look at every goal? Are you suggesting that somehow Streit in front of Emery really was a horrible defender and in front of Mason a highly capable one?

    Nonsense. Utter nonsense.

    My point is that I have dismantled your assertion of the value of EVGA by showing you that the number is completely dominated by goaltending. Completely. The statistic is basically of no use in rating defensemen. All it rates is how good the goalie was behind them. Whatever influence the D has on that number is washed out as noise.

    1.93 vs 3.04 should have amply demonstrated that point.

    None of the numbers you quote even make sense, let alone support the use of EVGA as a defensive measure. Not one iota.

    Go ahead and keep using EVGA as your defensive measure if you like.

    But all it does is let you continually reach nonsensical conclusions about defensemen.

    Frankly, you’d be better off actually running numbers to demonstrate that the numbers you use have any validity. Find a way to demonstrate which defenders allow open shots and which don’t. I would be very interested to see that analysis. Hell, if you want to put the numeric parameters together I’ll even help you crunch the numbers and write it up.

    But please stop using EVGA as a measure of defensmen. You reach terrible conclusions as a result, and as a result it makes you look bad and detracts from whatever other (potentially more supported) argument you might be making.

  93. G Money says:

    rickithebear: Did you go to the shot chart and look at every GA.

    By the way, as an aside, I have spent time actually watching every shift Petry played during several periods here or there.

    Watching him in focus not only confirms that he’s as good as the numbers say he is, if anything, he’s better. He makes every partner better. When he’s on the ice, the likelihood of something bad happening is markedly reduced.

    If we had some sort of ‘drama’ stat, Petry would have the lowest drama/60 vs QoC rating on the team, without a doubt.

  94. striatic says:

    A stat like EVGA is only useful relative to the EVGA of teammates. Was Streit outperforming his team on EVGA?

    If so, was he sheltered? Who was he playing with – was it the best defender on his team or was it with a boat anchor defensive project?

    Can’t just take career EVGA raw and have it mean much.

  95. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    A lot of Rangers fans I talk to think Petry is > Marc Staal. Some of us here have been suggesting to go out and trade key assets to get Staal. Think a 2nd and a 4th gets Staal? Talk about a case of letting one get away.

  96. rickithebear says:

    G money only open hole shots can go in all the rest is noise.

    By not using the open hole data you choose to add that noise and then use it as the reason for dismissing EVGA as a measure.

    I am going to introduce the error and then blame it.

    Don’t be an academic blunder!
    Just Don’t!

    We know D can affect a Corsi outcome by
    1. Distance of release (reaction time for Goalie) and reduced Parralax targeting for the shooter.
    2. Blocks
    3. Forced misses.
    4. Hit goalies poor open hole targeting affect.
    5. Phase of Corsi 1st shot; 2nd shot rebound; 3rd shot rebound. All different data categories of open hole shots with different expected success rates. the phase factor is often the most critical.

    Cause people often wrongly equate the rebound rates to the goalie when it is usually dependent on the affected targeting and box d rebound coverage.

    Start there and then tell me why it is all about Goalies.

  97. misfit says:

    Younger Oil: This is exactly what I heard as well. His reasons for falling seem quite similar to Greg Chase, to me at least. I’ve never heard a critique of his actual game play. Perhaps consistency at the beginning of the season, but after he settled in he was very, VERY good.

    I normally would be shouting for a D at #16, but there is just so much quality on the blue line slated to go in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. And I know I’m not a scout, but I can’t see a whole lot of difference between Roy/Pilon/Chabot and Andersson/Leveille, and Kylington if he does fall as much as some people are thinking. Meier/Svechnikov/Merkeley is who I target at #16 for that reason.

    I don’t see Kylington falling anywhere near as far as people are talking. In fact, I think he’s more likely to see him go in the top 10 than into the 2nd round (I don’t see either happening, just that the former is more likely than the latter). Some team is going to see the next OEL or Karlsson and take him somewhere just outside of the top 10 thinking they got the steal of the draft. Who knows…they may even be right too.

    But your overall point is received. There are a lot of good defensemen in this draft and the best ones may end up coming from the 2nd round. That wouldn’t be a reason not to take one with the 16th pick either. Nashville took 3 in the first 2 rounds in 2003 and that worked out well. We could use all of 16, 33, and 57 on defensemen for all I care.

  98. G Money says:

    striatic,

    These are not career numbers. I looked just at Streit this season playing in front of Mason vs Emery.

    In general, he played similar minutes with similar deployment and similar teammates. (I did not track the numbers exactly, I just eyeballed them to make sure there wasn’t some other radical change in Streit’s usage that might confound the comparison. I didn’t see one).

    As an added bonus, the sample sizes were actually reasonable for both goalies as well. It’s not like he played 5 or 6 games in front of Emery. The split was 24 (Emery) and 43, enough to start to wash out most usage differences.

    The general pattern is that in front of Emery, Streit and his teammates gave up fewer shot attempts, fewer shots, and fewer scoring chances. The primary explanation for this as far as I could see is that Emery played against weaker teams in general. That makes sense given Mason was the starting goaltender.

    Basically, in hockey, you can’t really hold ‘all else equal’, but this is as close as it gets.

    And with that, Streit’s numbers were all better in front Emery, yet his EVGA with Mason was 1.94 and with Emery, 3.04.

    That example was not cherry picked, all I looked for was an ‘all else equal’ scenario with two different goalies with significantly different save percentages.

    You see a similar pattern with Suter/Dubnyk/Kuemper.

  99. AZOIL says:

    How certain are we that Andrej Sekere will even make it to UFA?

  100. Lowetide says:

    AZOIL:
    How certain are we that Andrej Sekere will even make it to UFA?

    Not at all certain.

  101. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Again.

    You claim that certain things drive goal scoring. You know what? I don’t (necessarily) dispute that.

    You claim that your numbers, EVGA and what have you, reflect those certain things. I dispute that. Your numbers do not reflect those things.

    Unless you are going to assert that Streit is a vastly worse defender in front of Emery than in front of Mason, despite almost everything being similar, and with decent sample sizes with both goalies. (Similar claim for Suter and Kuemper vs Dubnyk).

    Prove your claim. Don’t repeat it ad nauseum. Repeating it doesn’t make it true, no matter how much you’d like it to. Show us your ‘open hole shots’ stats. Show us how they differ from defender to defender. Show us how they stay steady when the goaltender changes. Then you can make the claim.

    Until then, it’s bafflegab.

  102. rickithebear says:

    G Money: By the way, as an aside, I have spent time actually watching every shift Petry played during several periods here or there.

    Watching him in focus not only confirms that he’s as good as the numbers say he is, if anything, he’s better.He makes every partner better.When he’s on the ice, the likelihood of something bad happening is markedly reduced.

    If we had some sort of ‘drama’ stat, Petry would have the lowest drama/60 vs QoC rating on the team, without a doubt.

    I was a huge Petry guy cause he looked unnoisey in his play. calm and controlled.
    but he gets beat!
    That is the point.
    Everyone sees the calm.
    They say great D.
    I watched the goals and it is not good without Smid.

    If it is really the goalie.
    Why would we pay 4-6M for a dman that is not really making a difference. 🙂
    Looks good but any D can be good with the proper Goalie.

    Chicken or the egg.

  103. Hammers says:

    I’m wanting an answer to one question from any reliable source . When Tambo gave Petry his contract for 2 years did he get out negotiated on both term and $$$$ . Why wouldn’t they have done a 5 year deal? gaining some free agent years . Wouldn’t a 5 or 6 year deal have made more sense . Seems to me Petry had a smart agent because it left a 1 year deal open and that’s crazy. Dumb move by Tambo ,should have offered 1 year not the 2 . The other part of my question is at the time of the agreed contract by Tambo most everyone thought it was a great move but some of us still think that’s what screwed us with Petry.

  104. Hockeyman 99 says:

    From MacTs verbal we had Petry at 4 mil per season, looks really good now and a year ago.

  105. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Perhaps that is your problem, Ricki. You watch the goals, you forget to watch all the goals that didn’t happen because the right play was made. By definition, on most goals someone made a mistake. If you’re looking for Petry to make a mistake on a goal against, you will find it.

    If Petry makes a 1,000 plays that prevent chances from ever occurring, but gives up 10 goals, and all you do is watch the goals …you will have entirely missed the forest for the trees. (Particularly ironic for a bear)

    That’s why we look at shots and chances. Because they tell us the bigger picture of the balance of power. They tell us when the puck is moving the right way.

    Whether you look at his numbers or just watch the game, Petry stands out. Easily the best defender on the Oilers, and one of the best defenders on the Canadiens.

    By the way, in moving from Edm to Mtl,
    – Petry’s Corsi against fell by 11%
    – Petry’s chances against fell by 5%
    – Petry’s EVGA fell by 23%

    I assume in your world that huge discrepancy means Petry was just a much better defender in Montreal, and it had nothing to do with Carey Price?

  106. SwedishPoster says:

    Without reading too much into Chias comments I can’t say I’m very encouraged with his size and grit talk. I think it has very little predictive value for 17-18 year olds and taking it into account on draft day is what makes you miss out on quality to grab a physically mature kid who plays with “the right attitude”. How well you use your size and how gritty you are against other juniors doesn’t really say much about how you do against NHLers. At the other end of the spectra you have physically immature players playing guys much bigger, Peter Forsberg wasn’t very gritty when he first arrived in the SHL, he had that insanely competitive fire in his eyes already but didn’t really engage much and was a defensive liability. After a few years of maturing that changed and once in the NHL you could probably argue he was almost Tool gritty as it cost him his health.
    When pro scouting grit and size holds value. When trying ro determin how good a 17-18 year old will be at 23? Not so much.

  107. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Hammers:
    I’m wanting an answer to one question from any reliable source . When Tambo gave Petryhiscontract for 2 years did he get out negotiated on both term and $$$$ . Why wouldn’t they have done a 5 year deal? gaining some free agent years . Wouldn’ta 5 or 6 year deal have made more sense . Seems to me Petry had a smart agent because it left a 1 year deal open and that’s crazy. Dumb move by Tambo ,should have offered 1 year not the 2 . The other part of my question is at the time of the agreed contract by Tambo most everyone thought it was a great move but some of us still think that’s what screwed us with Petry.

    I’m not a reliable source. LT himself though posted in an article that the contract was too short at the time and might be an issue (the AAV was a bargain). That contract did become an issue. Tambellini dropped the ball, but MacT still had time to pick it up. Instead he kicked it forward 5 yards and the result was an Alouettes’ touchdown.

  108. rickithebear says:

    PS:
    G money:
    I am hoping you will take the open hole shots and introduce the phase rebound study to take it to a level that may prove me wrong. You have the computer and math theory to do this. I cannot translate the dimensional array in my head to paper. Alas i would need the 13 year old me when I was at my best.
    Swithched from love of math and physics to my neighbours wives.

  109. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    rickithebear:
    PS:
    G money:
    I am hoping you will take the open hole shots and introduce the phase rebound study to take it to a level that may prove me wrong. You have the computer and math theory to do this. I cannot translate the dimensional array in my head to paper. Alas i would need the 13 year old me when I was at my best.
    Swithched from love of math and physics to my neighbours wives.

    So you’re saying you didn’t love your neighbours’ wives when you were a teenager?

  110. Bling says:

    Those are some of the worst pre-draft quotes I’ve ever heard. Guy is still high off drafting Lucic, apparently.

    Then again, he was still aboard when they drafted Pastrnak, so that’s something.

    Hopefully PC allows Stu and especially Green to run the show.

  111. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Not sure if this McDavid and Eichel interview was posted here yet. Apologies if so:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=769667

  112. Bruce McCurdy says:

    admiralmark:
    Anybody ever trying to make sense out of asinine or nonsensical statements on here needs to look no further then the McCurdy poll question results today, Close to 10% responded that the Oilers should lock up Schultz to a long term contract south of $5 Million per. Maybe you can attribute a couple to Flames fans? But wow.

    I typically give an extreme question at either end of my poll. My “should he be suspended?” polls for example always start with “nothing, just a hockey play” and end with “throw the bum out of the league”.

    Today’s being “sign him long term” and “walk away”. The answer is usually (not always — our readers really did want to throw Matt Cooke out of the league once) one of the intermediate choices, but it’s fun to compare the two extremes to see a) how many votes they get, and b) which extreme is more popular. Today’s are running neck and neck at just under 10% each.

    Of course I could have had one extreme to lock him up long term for somewhere North of $5 MM a year, but I do think the one attractive thing about a long-term deal right now is that the sticker price would be lower, an attractive option for some fans (and Schultz does have a few). Still way too risky for my blood, I would never vote for that, but I like to leave options available for the full range of opinions, and refrain from calling any of them “asinine”.

  113. v4ance says:

    Lowetide,

    It’ll take a miracle for LA to retain Sekera but Lombardi is a very smart GM.

    Next year, they already have $64 million in cap committments against a maximum of ~$72 M cap limit. That includes 10 forwards, 6 D and one goalie signed to the big league roster for next season. They need to re-sign RFA forwards Toffoli, Weal, Shore, and Andreoff and RFA goalie Martin Jones. For the sake of argument, if we assume all the RFAs sign for ~$1M each, that would leave $2M to bring back Sekera. I highly doubt all those players would accept that low a figure but that’s what it would take to make it go from impossible to highly improbable.

    Voynov’s a cap hit of $4.1M is treated like LTIR so that could give LA some wiggle room to sign Sekera but it would also mean they’d have no money for absolutely anyone else on the 23 man list. With Petry’s $5.5M deal, Sekera is looking at that number as a good ballpark figure for his own pending UFA contract offer.

    The Kings will also be letting UFAs Stoll, Justin Williams, Regehr, and McBain all walk with no cap room to re-sign any of them.

    Sekera is a luxury that LA really can’t afford especially if you look at next year and see Kopitar is a pending UFA….

  114. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    v4ance,

    Richards buy-out or trade, trading Brown or Quick also options.

  115. v4ance says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    With 5 years remaining on Mike Richards’ $5.75M AAV contract…

    Mike Richards buyout from CapGeek.com
    2015-16: $1,216,667
    2016-17: $1,716,667
    2017-18: $2,716,667
    2018-19: $4,216,667
    2019-20: $4,216,667
    2020-21: $1,466,667
    2021-22: $1,466,667
    2022-23: $1,466,667
    2023-24: $1,466,667
    2024-25: $1,466,667

    That’s an ugly ugly UGLY long term waste of dollars over the next TEN seasons. :p

  116. striatic says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Brown has the only NTC on the Kings.

  117. striatic says:

    I mean, Brown has a limited NTC but it still cuts into the possible value they’d get back for him, I can’t see the Kings doing that.

    Trading Quick, otoh…

  118. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    v4ance,

    Yes, I’m aware. But I didn’t think Clarkson could be traded, either.

  119. stevezie says:

    Adam Wu,

    Yep

  120. v4ance says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    True.

    I suppose if Lombardi gets creative and he sends Richards and LA’s 2nd rounder to Nashville for a 5th rounder or a middling prospect, it COULD work…

  121. Evilas says:

    Wow, Franson sure is polarizing. For a non-hitting player he has racked up a lot of hits, but I can’t claim to know anything about him, other than he would be a major improvement as a PP point man. This team needs a shot from the point and I will take Franson over Hunt and Schultz and Nikitin 10 times out of 10.

    If by some miracle the adds to the D Corps is Sekera, Franson and Boumeester, it will be a good summer.

    LT,

    Regarding draft predictions, I think it would be more interesting to pick 5 players that the Oilers might be targeting per pick. Given the depth of this draft, I predict that there will be a lot of deviation this year. So, to use 5 players/pick would provide a better cushion from this. I too have a sense that Chiarelli will be picking Crouse at 16, if they keep the pick and if he is still on the board….

  122. jm363561 says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    I’m so disappointed in MacT in regards to Petry. He will be the poster boy for his failure.

    Everyone makes mistakes but in two years Eakins, Clarkson, Nikitin, Shultz, Ference, Dubnyk, mishandling Lander, Marincin, and arguably Leon,+ Petry – it’s quite a body of work.

  123. blainer says:

    G Money: Of those three, it is Ference who needs to go.Desperately.

    Both Schultz and Nikitin have some redeeming qualities.

    Schultz, despite our hatred of his Jultzing and his brain farts, when he’s on the ice the puck is often moving in the right direction.It’s easy to attribute this to his teammates, but it’s interesting to look at EV WOWYs to see if this is supported:

    With Ebs: 50.9 Without Ebs: 49.6 Ebs without Schultz: 50.0– they both do better together

    With Hall: 52.9 W/O Hall: 49.3Hall W/O Schultz: 49.0 – again, better together

    Marincin and Jultz had a small sample size (three games equivalent or so) together, but knocked it out of the park at 56.9 CF.

    It’s a fairly consistent theme.Despite our frustration with him, it’s instructive to remember that three different coaches, at least one and a half of them respected, all played Schultz more heavily than any other defender.(You could argue both MacT and Tambo insisted on this, but I find that hard to believe).

    Of course, you have to take this stuff with a grain of salt.But there is a consistent theme there.The stats and the eyes do not agree, but the eyes have a habit of tracking for confirmation bias. Jultz does some good stuff.If he comes back on a decent contract (< $3M), I’d like to see what TMc can do with him.

    As for Nikitin, it’s not quite so cut and dried. He looked bad often, but
    – he has a dangerous point shot on the PP
    – I’m convinced he, like Hall, came back too soon from injury.I thought he looked decent before getting injured (small sample size to be sure)
    – he has this tiny sample (62 mins, or about three to four games worth) with Marincin, but together they were 54.9%, Nikitin w/o was 48.0, and Marincin w/o was 48.0.That’s good enough to be worth investigating.If health + chemistry with Shady works out, the team is vastly better off.And if not, he’s gone by end of year anyway.He also had decent chemistry with Fayne (49.6, easily the best numbers put up by Fayne this year).So Nikitin-Fayne might also be a pairing worth investigating.

    So put it all together, and there is at least a sliver of support that you might cobble together a decent bottom 4 D out of Fayne, Marincin, Nikitin, and Schultz.The key is to ensure that Nikitin and Schultz are never on the ice together (42.7 together, both vastly better apart from each other).

    That leaves Chia Pete needing to find a capable partner for Klefbomb on the top pairing.It’s not a particularly good defense, but it might be an OK one for a year.

    But Ference … Oh Captain my Captain.Almost every player is better off without Ference than with him (a few are more or less the same, that’s the best case).In some cases, the difference is almost shocking (e.g. Perron w 49 Ference w/o is 44.4 and Perron w/o is 56.3.Holy crap.How do you even do that?)

    The only reason Ference looked even remotely capable last year is because of Petry.

    The biggest favour he could possibly do this team is to retire.Addition by subtraction.

    FSN is a problem.But SN might not be so bad in bottom 4 time with the right partners … it’s when the other guy is on the ice that means we’re truly F’d.

    Thank you for this.. Really glad to see the stats back up what the eyes are seeing.. The problem with players like Ference and Whitney is they just don’t know when its time to pack it in.. I really think Ference believes he still has it.. What a mess AND he is the captain.. If the audit was any good at all it should bring this problem to light. If ference is on this team after camp I expect him to be riding the pine with a coach like TMc..

  124. Yeti says:

    Lewis Grant: Am I wrong? (If not, can we stop pencilling in every single rookie at $3.775M?)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQl5aYhkF3E
    😉

  125. russ99 says:

    I’m a bit dismayed on Chirellii’s comment on draft focus on size and grit.

    Haven’t we been here before? Lucic hunt 2.0? And wasn’t this at least part of the reason why Chiarelli got fired in Boston?

    Besides, don’t we have enough coke machines in the system? What happens when we eventually trade a core forward and there’s nobody in the system that has a remote chance of replacing his numbers?

    The only difference here is that Chiarelii has a track record at doing this.

    Doesn’t change that size, grit and skill rarely all happen and project to the NHL level in one player, and when they do, those players aren’t there after the second round. There’s only one Lucic.

    I do like his comments on the focus to play hard, it’s much needed in our organization.

  126. v4ance says:

    russ99:
    I’m a bit dismayed on Chirellii’s comment on draft focus on size and grit.

    Haven’t we been here before? Lucic hunt 2.0? And wasn’t this at least part of the reason why Chiarelli got fired in Boston?

    Besides, don’t we have enough coke machines in the system? What happens when we eventually trade a core forward and there’s nobody in the system that has a remote chance of replacing his numbers?

    The only difference hereis that Chiarelii has a track record at doing this.

    Doesn’t change that size, grit and skill rarely all happen and project to the NHL level in one player, and when they do, those players aren’t there after the second round. There’s only one Lucic.

    I do like his comments on the focus to play hard, it’s much needed in our organization.

    I don’t interpret his comments as simply looking for “Lucic 2.0” via the draft. I view it as focusing on looking for the next Patrice Bergeron or the next Brad Marchand. Guys who are “tough to play against” even if they aren’t the biggest guys on the ice.

    Basically, he’s looking for “anti-Jultzes” who compete all over the ice. Or at least that\s what I hope.

  127. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    mujidog:
    How does MacT, a former coach, miss so bad on Petry and JSchultz (and Nikitin)????? HOW???

    Because he’s never been that smart. MacT has a long history of setting his mind about a guy and then not changing it. He’s stubborn and inflexible. Worse, he feels compelled to run his mouth in the media about his thoughts.

    Quite frankly, the Lowetide collective hivemind out-GMed MacT by a wide margin. We didn’t like Ference’s deal, we hated Nikitin, we were calling for Eakins head, we wanted Petry, we wanted Schultz to be forced to earn his minutes.

    When your fans are smarter than you, even in committee – ie the average public opinion does better – that’s a fucking travesty .Highly paid professionals need to be significantly better than the average .

  128. G Money says:

    rickithebear: I am hoping you will take the open hole shots and introduce the phase rebound study to take it to a level that may prove me wrong. You have the computer and math theory to do this. I cannot translate the dimensional array in my head to paper. Alas i would need the 13 year old me when I was at my best.

    Sorry Ricki. I’d like to help you out, but apart from the shot quality work I’m already doing (which uses distance, angle, shot type, and temporal effects), I have no idea how one would parse ‘open hole shots’ from the data.

    And frankly, I’m not even sure what you mean by ‘only open hole shots score’, since by definition if there is a goal, there was an open hole there. But that’s a meaningless statement, since it says nothing of the quality of the shot that scored.

    There are shots that score from boards perpendicular to the net, where there is no human way there ought to have been an ‘open hole’, but there was anyway. And I have no idea what a ‘phase rebound’ is since you’ve never explained it, not even sure you’ve used the term before.

    I’ve already demonstrated that at least one of your statistics is nonsense. As for the rest, it’s not up to me to prove you wrong, it’s up to you to prove you right.

    Rather than say that you can’t ‘translate the dimensional array in your head’, why not start with an old fashioned data gathering study (formally define what ‘open hole shots’ and ‘phase rebounds’are, and then watch a bunch of games and track them; like Staples & co. have done with their scoring chances) and then run the statistics and correlations to demonstrate what you mean and why your resulting conclusions have validity.

    That doesn’t take facility with math or grammar nearly so much as just some good old fashioned spreadsheet-based elbow grease.

    Until then, your concepts look like they are pulled out of thin air and your stated numbers have no demonstrated validity in supporting the concepts you claim they do. And getting mad and putting others down for pointing out these issues is really poor form.

    For more accuracy, you might want to start saying “I think Petry is a bad defenseman because the dimensional array in my head, which I cannot translate for you, says so”. At least then the conclusion and the supporting evidence will be consistent.

  129. G Money says:

    P.S. I’m off to the mighty Town of Fox Creek for a couple of days!

    It’ll be more fun than it sounds, I’ll be driving around with our field ops guys, in the deep woods on a tracked amphibious UTV most of the time.

    Hope the bears up there, and there are quite a few on the spread right now, don’t hold grudges on behalf of their brethren.

  130. zatch says:

    G Money,

    Don’t waste your time here GM. He operates under the main premise that he is always right and brilliant and therefore any conclusion he comes to is inherently correct. See his completely worthless player comparisons.. He ignores any attacks on his points (note he at no point addressed the Streit EVGA delta between two different goalies) largely because they blow his analysis out of the water.

    He reminds me of my brother with Aspergers in his youth. Although he is personable and a well regarded naval officer at this point. Some people don’t grow up.

  131. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    zatch:
    G Money,

    Don’t waste your time here GM. He operates under the main premise that he is always right and brilliant and therefore any conclusion he comes to is inherently correct. See his completely worthless player comparisons.. He ignores any attacks on his points (note he at no point addressed the Streit EVGA delta between two different goalies) largely because they blow his analysis out of the water.

    He reminds me of my brother with Aspergers in his youth. Although he is personable and a well regarded naval officer at this point. Some people don’t grow up.

    That’s a tad harsh. Ricki is a valuable contributor to this site, a contrarian without an ounce of troll in him. I agree that he has a tendency to avoid capitulation in the face of evidence, but this is true of most of us to a degree. It’s very rare on this board, or any other, to see people openly admit they were wrong, though I’ll grant you that Ricki’s tendency in that regard is stronger than average.

    GMoney, with his patient approach and analytical mind, represents our best chance of cracking open the mystery that is Rickithebear. I for one am curious to know if there is something to what Ricki has been talking about, even if it’s not exactly what Ricki expects the outcome to be. While I don’t expect a complete result to tell me Petry and Weber are bad, maybe with GMoney’s help we can determine if Brett Bellmore really is amazingly underrated. That would be neat.

    At the end of the day, Ricki is a net positive contributor to this site. He is not a DSF to be ignored (Hall is still better than Granlund in case anyone was wondering).

    Plus whenever I picture Ricki I see an actual bear, in a shirt and tie, in a room with writing covering each wall from floor to ceiling. That amuses me.

  132. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    How’s your head?

    How’s the wall?

  133. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: That’s a tad harsh.Ricki is a valuable contributor to this site, a contrarian without an ounce of troll in him.I agree that he has a tendency to avoid capitulation in the face of evidence, but this is true of most of us to a degree.It’s very rare on this board, or any other, to see people openly admit they were wrong, though I’ll grant you that Ricki’s tendency in that regard is stronger than average.

    GMoney, with his patient approach and analytical mind, represents our best chance of cracking open the mystery that is Rickithebear.I for one am curious to know if there is something to what Ricki has been talking about, even if it’s not exactly what Ricki expects the outcome to be.While I don’t expect a complete result to tell me Petry and Weber are bad, maybe with GMoney’s help we can determine if Brett Bellmore really is amazingly underrated. That would be neat.

    At the end of the day, Ricki is a net positive contributor to this site.He is not a DSF to be ignored (Hall is still better than Granlund in case anyone was wondering).

    Plus whenever I picture Ricki I see an actual bear, in a shirt and tie, in a room with writing covering each wall from floor to ceiling.That amuses me.

    This is a fantastic post. Agree completely. We are NOT the same and honestly many who are now valued members of the group arrived as a hot mess. It’s fine. We’re not meant to be identical, and we move conversation forward, learning all the while, with conflict of ideas and (apparently) discussions of sex, coffee, scotch and (probably next) crazy uncle stories.

    Rave on!

  134. Woodguy says:

    … and honestly many who are now valued members of the group arrived as a hot mess

    Guilty.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    … and honestly many who are now valued members of the group arrived as a hot mess

    Guilty.

    X2 here

  136. zatch says:

    My apologies then. When reading his posts I am reminded unpleasantly of a boss I had as well as some difficult years with the aforementioned brother, so it puts me in a very negative frame of mind. The criticism was unduly harsh and I take most of it back.

    That said, I WOULD like him to address challenges to his numbers should he wish his analysis to be taken seriously.

  137. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    zatch,

    Totally understandable, we’ve all been there. There have been plenty of times when I’ve gone back over some of my posts and realized I was being a much bigger D#$k than you were being just there, so don’t worry about it.

  138. rickithebear says:

    G money:

    A puck is directed at the net.
    Corsi
    Block;
    Misses
    Hit Goalie (standard goalie positioning) has equal results. the only variance is reflected in Save% relative to height.
    all Defence/shooter interaction.

    By definiition a shot is a puck in any angle of path that can go in an empty net.
    When we work backwards you start with a Goal
    and
    then a save.

    Many of the shots are directed into a goalies; body (Head, chest; arms; torso; mid section; pant leg) Pads; Blocker; Glove; Stick.and do not go in while no goalie movement occurs.
    these are not shots! Almost 0% chance of going in.

    The only shots that have a chance of going in are the ones in the area not covered by body; Pads; blocker; glove;stick.
    it is this group that is the goalie measure.
    The goalie has to move to make a save or give up a goal.

    I suspect that once data is broken down into this group that we will see the true measure of a goalies affect on EVGA results.
    More than likely an adjusted Relative EVGA/60 for a dman can be establish versus the league average Open area of net save%.

    PS: some one has to track or scorecard that elevation data by video.

    Corsi released:is Defence /shooter interaction.
    zero chance of going in net:
    Block
    Miss
    Hits goalie in Standard position.
    (my favourite – shot in glove then arm swing)
    This is a goalie establishing glove position and puck shot in glove.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp2HUNsQjis

    Goalies work.
    Open area of net
    goalie movement save
    or
    Goal

    I want the D with a low % of open area shots relative to corsi

  139. wordbird says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: The lottery win sparked the changes but I will not be surprised if it comes out that the Petry bungling cost MacT his job because of how well he did for Montreal.

    Montreal? How about how well Petry did in Edmonton!! :/
    Here’s hoping new Oiler leadership can see value when it’s under their own noses.

  140. Pajamah says:

    Arrived? Still a hot mess.

    All I’ve learned here is how to operate an Aeropress, cook the perfect steak, how to taste the difference in single or double malt scotch. Also, the Edmonton Oilers are a hockey team currently playing in the National Hockey League.

    I can also tell the difference between butter, and “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”.

  141. Jaxon says:

    Draft
    1 – McDavid, Connor – C
    16 – Meloche, Nicolas – RD
    33 – Senyshyn, Zachary – RW
    57 – Roy, Nicolas – C/RW
    79 – Guryanov, Denis – RW
    86 – Andersson, Rasmus- RD

    I know the Oilers need to stock the goalie pipeline, but there have been some really good arguments made that picking goalies at the draft is a losing game. I like Meloche at 16 as he is a big body defensive D who brings some decent offence. Senyshyn has been a great player who works hard, plays a 200 foot game and has some offence. Roy is a big, fast center who can score and projects as a future power forward. Guryanov is one of the best big, fast, defensively responsible, offensively gifted players in the draft, if he falls far enough ala Slepyshev, the Oilers should grab him. Hell, if he is available, they should probably pick him at 33, but I’m guessing he slips even further due to the ‘Russian-who’s-never-played-in-North-America’ factor. Andersson has great pedigree and decent offensive numbers, he’s built like a tank and could really outperform his rankings. After 86, I’d look at what goalies are left, but not before that. There is just too much bonafide talent to use those picks on voodoo.

  142. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pajamah:

    I can also tell the difference between butter, and “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”.

    LIAR!

  143. godot10 says:

    Evilas:
    Wow, Franson sure is polarizing.For a non-hitting player he has racked up a lot of hits, but I can’t claim to know anything about him, other than he would be a major improvement as a PP point man.This team needs a shot from the point and I will take Franson over Hunt and Schultz and Nikitin 10 times out of 10.

    Klefbom, Nurse, and Schultz can play the power play point. No need to waste $5.5 million dollars in cap space for 5 years to do that. The Oilers need defensemen who can defend and move the puck. Franson is horrible at “defending”. With Franson, one is just adding another weak defender to the Nikitin, Ference, and Schultz. The last thing the Oilers need is another defensemen who can’t defend.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca