ONCE MORE TO THE WOOD SHED

When I was young, a woman named Gladys Knight had a hit on the radio called “I’ve got to Use My Imagination” and she sang the hell out of it (as did the Pips). I’m reminded of that song today, after listening to Oilers’ Director of Player Personnel Bob Green in conversation with Jason Gregor on TSN1260. Bob Green, you’ve got to use your imagination!

Amen, Mr. Green. I think we sometimes miss this point as a group. As an example, at various times it has been suggested that I don’t value size (untrue) and can’t appreciate the enforcer in today’s game (true to an extent: I like enforcers, but they cost hockey games). Bob Green’s comments can best be reflected in the following sentence: An NHL team should place high value on Lawson Crouse, but that value should meet the draft floor between selection No. 16 and No. 20 (I have him at No. 17 currently after a long conversation with a scout). If the Oilers have him at No. 6, and Crouse falls to No. 9, and they trade No. 16 and No. 33 to move up? That’s not going to represent real value. That’s my opinion.

Is it Bob Green’s opinion? Suspect he feels differently.

We can assume, that in a deep draft, the club is unlikely to go walkabout in the first two rounds. Toward the end of the Stu MacGregor draft era, MBS was pretty good at staying away from the long rangers.

For me, this is the heart of the issue. If the Edmonton Oiler pass on the terrific talent available in this year’s top 60—and they have four selections—then it impacts the future of the organization in a big way. Let’s look at what might happen using traditional ‘needs’ thinking:

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid
  • No. 16 overall: D Brandon Carlo
  • No. 33 overall: G MacKenzie Blackwood
  • No. 57 overall: L Ryan Gropp

That’s still one helluva draft. You get the best prospect in 10-25 years, a two-way defender, a power forward and one of the most famous goalies in the draft. It’s not enough. The NHLE for these players (using CHL stats) is McDavid (62); Carlo (8); Gropp (18) and Blackwood’s .906 SP ranks him No. 11 in the OHL for 2014-15. This is a deep draft, people. Drafting for need (as I’ve done in this little exercise) leaves the Oilers on the outside looking in when it comes to the value available. Let’s do it again:

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid (62 NHLE)
  • No. 16 overall: D Jeremy Roy (19 NHLE)
  • No. 33 overall: C Anthony Beavillier (29 NHLE)
  • No. 57 overall: R Blake Speers (29 NHLE)

There are four very valuable selections that belong to Edmonton and there’s a lot of skill in this draft. Selecting a goaltender and a defender who is more defense than offense in this range is going to leave too much available for other teams. The Oilers haven’t won much since 2006 but they have a helluva chance to win this draft and flatten the opposition to boot.

Bob Green has a tremendous reputation as a judge of talent and you know my opinion of Stu MacGregor. Getting this draft right is paramount. I have a feeling we’re going to be talking about Peter Chiarelli’s draft record on the evening of June 27.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

91 Responses to "ONCE MORE TO THE WOOD SHED"

  1. slopitch says:

    Connor f**kn McDavid!

    Go get bigger and stronger, sure. Just do it through free agency and trades. A pick is usually 3 years away. Draft the BPA with every damn pick. The draft is just one channel to build a team, when your director of player personnel your looking at all channels right?

    Oh and sign that Appleby kid (Oshawa goalie).

  2. stush18 says:

    Im worried there going to go MOAR size for the entire draft, because they lucked out and won the mcdavid lottery.

    Look at the skill, then the size. If its comparable, take the size.

  3. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I still feel that fighting has a place in the NHL.
    However, I feel that the pure enforcer does not have a place in the NHL.
    I would like the enforcers to be replaced with guys that can fight and contribute a regular shift.
    I would also like to see more guys that move positions.
    We’re seeing a bunch of top teams having too many centres that can play on the wing.
    The next push will be guys that can play both forward and defence.
    Burns and Byfuglien are just the start.
    Steven Kampfer played some forward for the Cats this year.
    I expect more teams to experiment with this in the near future.

  4. blainer says:

    With the Canadian dollar the way it is and the possibility it may not rebound or even get worse these draft picks are extremely valuable.. All of them.. Can you imagine if the dollar hits a low next year in the 70 cent range.. the cap could go down to 67 mil or less.. With the new lottery rules next year our first is still worth a ton.. IMO you do NOT trade these pics easily..

    It will be a very interesting draft floor this year.. I think more so than in previous years but do expect a lot of movement and not just with the oilers but all the teams because of the perceived value… but really hope we keep ours unless we get that deal we can’t refuse…

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    draft skill, (highest scoring CHL player, Q has to take a slight discounting) and if you have too many good skilled players you trade them for size.

    EX. Draft and Develop Reider, trade him for Kessey. This will look a lot better with a proper GM.

  6. stush18 says:

    slopitch:
    Connor f**kn McDavid!

    Go get bigger and stronger, sure. Just do it through free agency and trades. A pick is usually 3 years away. Draft the BPA with every damn pick. The draft is just one channel to build a team, when your director of player personnel your looking at all channels right?

    Oh and sign that Appleby kid (Oshawa goalie).

    I wonder how much of his success comes from playing on a very good team, vs him carrying his defense.

    Certainly seems like his team played some unreal defense to get there.

  7. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Having Scott Howson take a look at anything in the draft is just slightly more reassuring than knowing that “Craig’s on it.”

  8. supernova says:

    Bob Green

    I am a fan of his. I don’t think he is the type who has one type of player that he goes for.

    If I had to say one overriding trait he tries to find is Hockey Sense, secondarily it would be the often mentioned “competitiveness”

    If Green is allowed to draft who he feels is best and isn’t overruled I am very confident in his scouting.

    I am gonna highlight a few of the players Green “scouted”

    Curtis Lazar
    Darren Helm
    Kris Russell

    None of these players aren’t considered big but maybe there best trait is “competitiveness”, they obviously have skills in other areas but quite often they are regarded with this light.

    Drafted early, late or not at all into Junior they are simply good hockey players

    How about

    Jay Bowmeester
    Joffrey Lupul
    Griffey Reinhart
    TJ Foster

    There are some very high WHL draft picks with size and some small players mixed with some undrafted ones ( Lupul ). Foster also is a CIS all star who was a good Junior player.

    These are just a few players in Green’s scouting background. Green knows how to find “Hockey Players”

    If Chiarelli lets Green do his job I am sure he will find players regardless of the size. Some will come off the board, some will come early

  9. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Chiarelli has it right. Really it’s about attitude not size. Especially when today’s game. Speed skill and assertiveness. I like big tough players but they aren’t getting it done these days and look at the Hawks D . Mobility and quick repossession and you good pass.

  10. gd says:

    While I am feeling pretty confident in the Chia/TMc hirings, this verbage from Green about needing size is a concern. A lot of the skilled size in the West is on the wrong side of 30 as it was a product of a huge cluster of guys from the 2003 and earlier drafts that were unique to that era. In three years I don’t think the Oilers will have any size concerns with the West especially with Nurse on D. The Hawks, Flames and Wild competed fine in the West without a lot of size. I do like focusing on compete levels as a Marchand/Shaw would be guys I wish we had, but quite frankly we need more Vatanens to compete in the West versus Teuberts.

  11. Woodguy says:

    I have a feeling we’re going to be talking about Peter Chiarelli’s draft record on the evening of June 27.

    I hope not.

    I hope his last few years with Gretzky (which are good) taught him a few things.

    One of the selling points of Chiarelli for me is that he’s not a rookie.

    He’s made the same mistakes many GM’s make already, so he shouldn’t make them here.

    He has a Harvard law degree so you can expect a level of intelligence that learns from mistakes.

    The biggest fault of MacT is that he made a ton of rookie mistakes (like expecting older players to play like they did at 28 and not 33) and the Oilers just couldn’t live through a learning curve with all the talent they have on the roster.

    From what I heard from Chia this week is that he *knows* you cannot chase size without skill.

    When I hear Chiarelli talk to Bob about how he tuned in the scouts, I didn’t take it to mean “If he’s under 6’1 we don’t look at him”, I took it to mean “Does he go get the puck, or does he need others to get the puck for him?”

    Skilled players who need the others to get them the puck are plentiful and can score at the NHL level.

    Players who can get the puck themselves and score at the NHL level are not plentiful.

    Call it Sam Gagner vs. Joe Pavelski.

    One will get you points, but probably won’t create more than he gives up, and he creates a lot.

    The other will create while making the other team work their ass off to get the puck from him.

    World of difference.

    NOTE: Edited a key line about giving up and creating. Totally muffed the ball there.

  12. Younger Oil says:

    We don’t need size, we need good players. Plain and simple.

  13. Bag of Pucks says:

    To recap: we must draft skill, it must be in the range of the consensus (ie the conventional ‘value pick’) and we shouldn’t overrate the need for size or defensive acumen at the expense of BPA methodology. Never mind that the ability to play physical or sound defence is a skill in exceedingly short supply with this team.

    Reading this, I’m reminded of a former Oiler draft pick who fit this description.

    Sam Gagner.

    How did that work out again? Not as well as drafting Logan Couture imo.

    Conventional wisdom = Conventional results

    Throw every damn preconception out the window and just draft the best damn players. Regardless of what bias or paradigm they fit. If Mr Green can do that in the Study with a Lead Pipe, I’ll be a happy camper.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    To recap: we must draft skill, it must be in the range of the consensus (ie the conventional ‘value pick’) and we shouldn’t overrate the need for size or defensive acumen at the expense of BPA methodology. Never mind that the ability to play physical or sound defence is a skill in exceedingly short supply with this team.

    Reading this, I’m reminded of a former Oiler draft pick who fit this description.

    Sam Gagner.

    How did that work out again? Not as well as drafting Logan Couture imo.

    Conventional wisdom = Conventional results

    Throw every damn preconception out the window and just draft the best damn players. Regardless of what bias or paradigm they fit.If Mr Green can do that in the Study with a Lead Pipe, I’ll be a happy camper.

    Gagner was slow and small. Highly skilled, very smart, but couldn’t overcome those things and despite intelligence never did learn center.

  15. Jon K says:

    The more things change, the more they stay the same?

    Last time a generational draft came around and the Oilers focused on size to the detriment of everything else? 2003.

    #22 Marc Pouliot 6’2″
    #51 Colin McDonald 6’2″
    #68 JF Jacques 6’3″
    #72 Mikhail Zhukov 6’2″
    #94 Zach Stortini 6’4″
    #147 Kalle Olsson 6′
    #154 David Rohlfs 6’3″
    #184 Dragan Umicevic 6′
    #214 Kyle Brodziak 6’2″
    #215 Mathieu Roy 6’2″
    #248 Josef Hrabal 6′
    #278 Troy Bodie 6’5″

    The Oilers didn’t draft a single player under 6′, and all but two of the twelve picks are 6’2″ or over.

    I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.

  16. 36 percent body fat says:

    Bag of Pucks: isdom = Conventional results

    Gagner was never surrounded with the players that Couture was. Whether is be to play with or be mentored by.

    I can list more bust that were drafted with size than I can players with skill.

    Next up, Alex Plante. The skilled player is in the NHL the big one is not.

  17. Stud Muffin says:

    IMO I Dman that only scored 3 goals in the WHL this season is not a two way D

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Gagner was slow and small. Highly skilled, very smart, but couldn’t overcome those things and despite intelligence never did learn center.

    And yet still celebrated as a ‘value pick’ at the time of the draft.

    Don’t get me wrong. I totally get the wont to game the draft. If a team can, what a competitive advantage it provides. I just don’t think it’s possible.

    After the elite top 10, it’s a crapshoot/ lottery. That is where development takes over as the key determinant to success.

    Picking the stock is not nearly as important as knowing how to optimize its transactional value.

  19. MrEd says:

    Good call on Shaw. Kicked his feet out. Trip for sure.

  20. Hockeyman 99 says:

    I’ve read Provorov is NHL ready along with many nice things. I think it’s possible he goes in the 8-10 range because Russian. Would love to see the oilers move up and grab him.

  21. MrEd says:

    Killorn with an amazing skill play. 1-0 Tampa.

  22. MrEd says:

    Johnson looks like Kariya.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    I’ve read Provorov is NHL ready along with many nice things. I think it’s possible he goes in the 8-10 range because Russian. Would love to see the oilers move up and grab him.

    I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

    That’s a dream of the moist variety.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Correction:

    Chiarelli did not graduate from Harvard Law.

    Undergrad at Harvard.

    Law at University of Ottawa.

    Slacker.

    Note: It was Supernova who tipped me to my error.

  26. MrEd says:

    Keith insists on the simple play. Amazing.

  27. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

    Almost. He shoots left. Why the hell does everyone shoot left these days?!

  28. Adam Wu says:

    Jon K:
    The more things change, the more they stay the same?

    Last time a generational draft came around and the Oilers focused on size to the detriment of everything else? 2003.

    #22 Marc Pouliot 6’2″
    #51 Colin McDonald 6’2″
    #68 JF Jacques 6’3″
    #72 Mikhail Zhukov 6’2″
    #94 Zach Stortini 6’4″
    #147 Kalle Olsson 6′
    #154 David Rohlfs 6’3″
    #184 Dragan Umicevic 6′
    #214 Kyle Brodziak 6’2″
    #215 Mathieu Roy 6’2″
    #248 Josef Hrabal 6′
    #278 Troy Bodie 6’5″

    The Oilers didn’t draft a single player under 6′, and all but two of the twelve picks are 6’2″ or over.

    I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.

    Is it any surprise that the Oilers’ run of futility began in 2007, just when the players from this draft started to make an impact in the league in significant numbers? Not only in the talents the team did not have because they drafted poorly, but also all the talent they passed on now playing for the other teams?

  29. MrEd says:

    V.XIV.VI.I,

    Thus has it always been, and thus shall it ever be.
    Righties are what’s interesting.

  30. nelson88 says:

    LT,

    In relation to your post at ON. Do you really think NJ would trade Schneider? One of the few goalies I would support paying a large price for.

    Schneider + Greene

    Yak1, Yak2, Slepy, Marincin – at risk of coming across as anti russian (not at all, love yak1 and yak2) but would give NJ exactly what they need.

    never happen but would be good for both teams.

  31. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Correction:

    Chiarelli did not graduate from Harvard Law.

    Undergrad at Harvard.

    Law at University of Ottawa.

    Slacker.

    The media reports said he was a lawyer with a Harvard degree.

    Clever use of semantics.

    I agree on your read of Green and Chiarelli on the draft.

    I took the excerpts to say that they were going to prioritize certain traits that would steer them away from the Robbie Schremps and towards the Darren Helms.

    Size and skill together are great. They are also usually gone in the first 40 picks. So after that you take skilled players who create chances for their teammates and chip in themselves.

    I come back to this one idea: Henrik Samuelsson.

    Green drafted him with a late pick (5th round?) because it was widely believed he wouldn’t come over to North America. Sound a little Sather-ish?

    Big kid, chip on his shoulder, and royally (no pun intended) pissed off the opposition.

    That is the kind of “big” player I see Chiarelli and Green targeting.

    Not certain, but I think Konecny has some of those traits, if I recall some of his scouting reports correctly.

  32. Lowetide says:

    nelson88:
    LT,

    In relation to your post at ON. Do you really think NJ would trade Schneider? One of the few goalies I would support paying a large price for.

    Schneider + Greene

    Yak1, Yak2, Slepy, Marincin – at risk of coming across as anti russian (not at all, love yak1 and yak2) but would give NJ exactly what they need.

    never happen but would be good for both teams.

    Nah, just blue sky talk.

  33. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: The media reports said he was a lawyer with a Harvard degree.

    Clever use of semantics.

    I agree on your read of Green and Chiarelli on the draft.

    I took the excerpts to say that they were going to prioritize certain traits that would steer them away from the Robbie Schremps and towards the Darren Helms.

    Size and skill together are great. They are also usually gone in the first 40 picks. So after that you take skilled players who create chances for their teammates and chip in themselves.

    I come back to this one idea: Henrik Samuelsson.

    Green drafted him with a late pick (5th round?) because it was widely believed he wouldn’t come over to North America. Sound a little Sather-ish?

    Big kid, chip on his shoulder, and royally (no pun intended) pissed off the opposition.

    That is the kind of “big” player I see Chiarelli and Green targeting.

    Not certain, but I think Konecny has some of those traits, if I recall some of his scouting reports correctly.

    It’s certainly a trait you have to look for when watching.

    Numbers can miss this kind of stuff, especially if the player is playing with other talent.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Sam Pollock coached a softball team with a bunch of Montreal Canadiens who were trying to stay in shape over the summer. He parlayed that into a pretty good career.

  35. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Correction:

    Chiarelli did not graduate from Harvard Law.

    Undergrad at Harvard.

    Law at University of Ottawa.

    Slacker.

    That’s too bad. I guess Pearson Spector Litt can’t hire him.

  36. godot10 says:

    New Jersey is set in goal and has a rebuilt young emerging defense. The easy part is left. i.e. the forwards.

    It makes no sense to trade Schneider or Greene or Larsson.

    They get Barzal this year in the draft to go with Henrique and Zajac. And so it is even easier, mostly just wingers.

  37. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10:
    New Jersey is set in goal and has a rebuilt young emerging defense.The easy part is left.i.e. the forwards.

    It makes no sense to trade Schneider or Greene or Larsson.

    They get Barzal this year in the draft to go with Henrique and Zajac.And so it is even easier, mostly just wingers.

    You had me, right up until you suggested Henrique and Zajac were a solid 1 – 2 punch. Otherwise, point taken.

  38. Ryan says:

    Lordy, I didn’t realize how big Hedman is… 6’6 230 lbs.

  39. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Sam Pollock coached a softball team with a bunch of Montreal Canadiens who were trying to stay in shape over the summer. He parlayed that into a pretty good career.

    Isn’t DSF in town soon?

    I have a bottle of Macallan 25 gathering dust.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: Isn’t DSF in town soon?

    I have a bottle of Macallan 25 gathering dust.

    Ah crap, forgot about that.

  41. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

    I think Provorov is gone by the 8th pick.

    But I’d be extremely happy with him.

  42. rickithebear says:

    All numbers are age based NHLE.
    The % of PP production must be subtracted if they do not see PP in NHL.

    #22 Marc Pouliot 6’2″
    17 yr 25G 33A 58P
    18 yr 21G 29A 50P
    19 yr 19G 29A 48P

    #51 Colin McDonald 6’2″
    18yr 8G 13A 21P
    19yr 8G 18A 26P

    #68 JF Jacques 6’3″
    17yr 9G 17A 26P
    18yr 12G 15A 27P
    19 yr 16G 18A 34 P

    #72 Mikhail Zhukov 6’2″

    #94 Zach Stortini 6’4″
    17yr 9G 10A 19P
    18yr 11G 9A 20P
    19yr 7G 13A 20P

    #147 Kalle Olsson 6′

    #154 David Rohlfs D 6’3″ drafted draft +1
    19yr 6g 6A 12P

    #184 Dragan Umicevic 6′
    17 yr 10G 14A 24p
    18 yr injured
    19 yr 9G 18A 27P

    #214 Kyle Brodziak 6’2″ Draft +1
    18yr 15G 15A 30P
    19yr 19G 24A 43P

    #215 Mathieu Roy 6’2″ Draft year +2
    19yr 5G 11A 16P

    #248 Josef Hrabal 6′ 178lb

    #278 Troy Bodie 6’5″
    17yr 5g 6A 11p
    18yr 4G 6A 10p
    19yr 9G 10A 19p

    Pretty obvious to modern scouting that the player most likely to succeed was Brodziak.
    MAP likely had a PP point padding in his draft year.
    A whole collection of none offensive capable Big Men.

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10:
    New Jersey is set in goal and has a rebuilt young emerging defense.The easy part is left.i.e. the forwards.

    It makes no sense to trade Schneider or Greene or Larsson.

    They get Barzal this year in the draft to go with Henrique and Zajac.And so it is even easier, mostly just wingers.

    Either of Larsson or Severson would be a perfect fit in Edmonton

    Does Yakupov get it done?

    Smart thing that Buffalo, NJ, and maybe Arizona have done is draft their Dmen high first. Takes them til 21-22 to really start contributing while high forwards may be 19. Hall will probably be ~26 by the time Nurse is really an effective Dman

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

    Seems like a perfect fit for Philly at 7

  45. Younger Oil says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Seems like a perfect fit for Philly at 7

    Nah, that’s Crouse. Hopefully at least!

  46. Aitch says:

    Jon & Adam – yeah, no surprise that the decade of flatulence that followed the Cup run was impacted by the results of the 2003 draft. That was a see-saw draft for a lot teams in relation to the Oilers. It was followed up by the 2004 draft where they took Dubnyk who developed by sun dial and Schremp in the first round. Imagine the Oilers of the last decade if they had ended up with Parise, Radulov and Schneider, who were drafted next after Dubnyk and Schremp respectively.

    As for Provorov, who knows, maybe he falls like Fowler did. Wasn’t he supposed to goin the first wave after Hall and Seguin?

  47. Ryan says:

    Watching this game, I can’t help but think of the advanced stats darling, Anton Stralman…

    Lordy if Mact had signed him instead of Nikitin.

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Aitch:
    Jon & Adam – yeah, no surprise that the decade of flatulence that followed the Cup run was impacted by the results of the 2003 draft. That was a see-saw draft for a lot teams in relation to the Oilers. It was followed up by the 2004 draft where they took Dubnyk who developed by sun dial and Schremp in the first round.Imagine the Oilers of the last decade if they had ended up with Parise, Radulov and Schneider, who were drafted next after Dubnyk and Schremp respectively.

    As for Provorov, who knows, maybe he falls like Fowler did. Wasn’t he supposed to goin the first wave after Hall and Seguin?

    TSN ranking had Gormley and Fowler 4 and 5 respectively. Dropped to 13 and 12. If Provorov or even maybe Werenski drop to 12/13 i think you gotta trade up

  49. supernova says:

    RexLibris: The media reports said he was a lawyer with a Harvard degree.

    Clever use of semantics.

    I agree on your read of Green and Chiarelli on the draft.

    I took the excerpts to say that they were going to prioritize certain traits that would steer them away from the Robbie Schremps and towards the Darren Helms.

    Size and skill together are great. They are also usually gone in the first 40 picks. So after that you take skilled players who create chances for their teammates and chip in themselves.

    I come back to this one idea: Henrik Samuelsson.

    Green drafted him with a late pick (5th round?) because it was widely believed he wouldn’t come over to North America. Sound a little Sather-ish?

    Big kid, chip on his shoulder, and royally (no pun intended) pissed off the opposition.

    That is the kind of “big” player I see Chiarelli and Green targeting.

    Not certain, but I think Konecny has some of those traits, if I recall some of his scouting reports correctly.

    Woodguy,

    RexLibris,

    I would agree that Konecky fits into a Green type player.

    Jansen Harkins is a player who fits as well. When I read Harkins scouting reports it feels like I am reading Anton Lander’s reports.

    They simply read “Hockey Player” to me. Leadership, good skill, team guy, also Harkins whole family lives hockey it seems. Uncle played, Dad played and is GM in PG, brother just drafted by PG.

    Wonder what size he measures at the combine. He is a “don’t want to miss with a top 40 pick player”

  50. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ryan,

    There was no way. You don’t turn down a TB offer for and EDM offer, especially when you just came that close to the cup, unless it’s a whole heck of a lot more money.

    Great player, we can’t have them all.

  51. slopitch says:

    Teuvo Teravainen, drafted 18th overall 3 years ago. BPA at the pick. The Oilers arent at their win now window. Draft the best damn BPA and have a prospect ready in 3 years where we are hopefully in Chicago’s spot and when McDavid is due a massive raise. Having a guy like Tervanen coming thirough the system allows you to move Sharp and keep the beast moving.

  52. SVR says:

    How about a trade with Anaheim. Schultz and our number 33 pick for Wisniewski and Gibson. Wiz contract is short term and he’s probably an upgrade on Schultz. We also get a promising goalie that can grow with the team. Ducks get to dump a contract and a decent pick

  53. Yak2 says:

    Would rather have the Oilers go after Ilya Samsonov. I’d try to move in to the top-10 by giving up the 16th and say Marincin to get Provorov. Or here’s to some more good luck and he drops to 16th.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    slopitch:
    Teuvo Teravainen, drafted 18th overall 3 years ago. BPA at the pick. The Oilers arent at their win now window. Draft the best damn BPA and have a prospect ready in 3 years where we are hopefully in Chicago’s spot and when McDavid is due a massive raise.Having a guy likeTervanen coming thirough the system allows you to move Sharp and keep the beast moving.

    Believe Teuvo slid in the draft, did he not?

    Drafting sliders. It’s a great way to get value.

    Much prefer that philosophy over some of the positional or skill vs size biases that can dominate the discussion at times.

  55. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ryan: Isn’t DSF in town soon?

    I have a bottle of Macallan 25 gathering dust.

    Damn, be careful who you give those drinks to…

    The Macallan 18 year old aged in sherry is one of my favorite scotches. My wife said she didn’t like scotch, until she tried that one. The bottle apparently evaporated, though. 🙂 I prefer the 1995 bottling, although hard to source today.

    From the same region, the Balvenie 14 Year Old Caribbean Cask is great, and the BenRiach 16 Year Old is great. Somewhat expensive, though.

    As Oiler fans, we should likely have a drinking blog. Might be interesting to see what fans of this team turn to.

  56. Hammers says:

    Bob Green having a tremendous rep at junior hopefully translated to having a good rep in the NHL . Nothing is 100% until we see what he does with his at bats . You also have a gm who seems like he may stick his nose into all decisions . right now i’m just glad they can’t screw up there 1st pick . As for the rest we wait . Like all things Oilers we will have to wait .

  57. misfit says:

    Bag of Pucks: BelieveTeuvo slid in the draft, did he not?

    Drafting sliders. It’s a great way to get value.

    Much prefer that philosophy over some of the positional or skill vs size biases that can dominate the discussion at times.

    Terevainen did slide, but that alone isn’t reason enough to take a guy. Esposito was a slider. As was Tukonen. Schremp and Ebert too. Sometimes sliders slide because they should.

  58. Jaxon says:

    I think there is a middle ground that could cover your positional needs, speed, size, responsible defence, grit, and a decent level of skill. This is what I’ve come up with by using various rankings, NHL equivalencies mixed with whatever scouting reports I could find [NHLE]:

    1 McDavid, Connor C [63]
    16 Rantanen, Mikko RW/C [30]
    16 Roslovic, Jack RW/C [34]
    16 Boeser, Brock RW [26]
    16 Guryanov, Denis RW/LW [20]
    33 Andersson, Rasmus RD [22]
    33 Meloche, Nicolas RD [19]
    33 Senyshyn, Zachary RW [16]
    57 Forsbacka-Karlsson, Jakob RW/C [23]
    57 Fischer, Christian RW/C [21]
    57 Roy, Nicolas C/RW [18]
    79 Kolesar, Keegan RW [15]
    86 Goalie G –
    117 Goalie G –
    124 Goalie G –
    154 Tkachev, Vladimir LW [23]
    184 Goalie G –

    If the Oilers got McDavid and 3 of these guys, I’d be super happy with their haul. I’d want to grab a couple scoring RW for McDavid in case Yakupov never turns it around. I’d also want a couple big, fast, scoring RD and I think Meloche and Andersson are the best (available to Edmonton) in that regard.

  59. spoiler says:

    misfit: Terevainen did slide, but that alone isn’t reason enough to take a guy.Esposito was a slider.As was Tukonen.Schremp and Ebert too.Sometimes sliders slide because they should.

    Paajarvi, to a lesser degree.

  60. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: I come back to this one idea: Henrik Samuelsson.
    Green drafted him with a late pick (5th round?) because it was widely believed he wouldn’t come over to North America. Sound a little Sather-ish?

    Something similar happened with Gernat, didn’t it? Where Green was tipped off by Edmonton Scouting (Musil) that Gernat was willing to play Junior in NA?

  61. prairieschooner says:

    If the BPA every time the Oilers are up are left wingers do they still take BPA?

  62. Dipstick says:

    I think Mr. Chiarelli might be able to extract good value for the 33rd pick. After the first round is finished the teams have overnight to re-evalue what is left. There will be a few GMs salivating over the available picks. Offer a few of them the pick for a steep price and see if anyone bites.

  63. kooler says:

    THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION

    Not that Mcdavid would ever be traded……what would he be worth to Buffalo? Eichel, 21st, 31st, Zarodov and Ristolainen? 2016 first round possibly?

    Then turn around and trade our 16th and 33rd for Phili’s 7th and voilà…..Ivan Provorov

    Philli gave up 2 Stanley cups for Lindros and some cash.

    Thought I saw Eakins driving around Vancouver a couple weeks ago…Giants maybe?

  64. kooler says:

    June 30, 1992
    Eric Lindros for

    Steve Duchesne
    Peter Forsberg
    Ron Hextall
    Kerry Huffman
    Mike Ricci
    $15M cash
    1993 1st round pick (#10-Jocelyn Thibault )
    future considerations (Chris Simon 1994 1st round pick (#10-Nolan Baumgartner))

  65. LP says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to walk out of Round 1 with McDavid-Provorov. That’s actually perfect.

    That combo would be too good to be true, really.

  66. spoiler says:

    Weirdest UFA signing for me would be Robyn Regehr. That would take some getting used to. Be like having Kesler on the team… or Derrian Hatcher.

    Could McQuaid be the Gator-type we’re looking for? Do we really want to pay for this type while we are still paying Ference and Nikita real money?

    The cap number comes after the draft it sounds like, which might make it difficult for a GM to be proactive on a cap crunch in Sunrise.

    I don’t know if a deal with the usual suspects–LAK, NYR, BOS, CHI, STL, TBL–gets done at that time. Certainly it would be in the best interests of these teams to take advantage of their assets in a deep deep draft year, but will they, with the cap spectre yet to appear on the battlefield?

    Seems to me GMs tend to procrastinate as long as they can, hoping the offerings improve, until they are forced into a decision.

    Leddy and Boychuck weren’t traded till Oct 4.

    Having been there himself, I’m sure Chia knows best, and of course you keep the lines of communication open with other GMs during Draft Daze, but just because a deal isn’t made then, doesn’t mean it isn’t going to be made at all.

    The Oiler fanbase is going to have display some patience over the next 12 months, despite Patience having left for Dodge City long ago.

  67. spoiler says:

    prairieschooner:
    If the BPA every time the Oilers are up are left wingersdo they still take BPA?

    IMHO…

    After the first few picks, BPA is difficult to determine. About best that can be said is that players are in groups or tiers, and even then it’s tough to agree on who is in which tier.

    So it’s kind of a ridiculous argument. BPA usually turns out to be some fan’s draft favorite who was passed over and then went on to be successful.

    Just look at the various rankings and observe the amount of variance there is in the top 30. That variance only increases as the draft proceeds deeper.

  68. LP says:

    The 26th of June 2015 will be always be a date of great importance to Oiler fans, as it should!!

    This is redemption day for fans of the Oilers. After 7-8 years of shite, some light at the end of the tunnel with a generational player coming…

    Imagine, McDavid, Nuge, Draisatl, as the C depth for many years to come… not bad at all!

    Will be something else to see how he fits in with Hall, Nuge, Eberle and others…

    WOOOOOOO

  69. AsiaOil says:

    My perfect draft day:

    – draft CMD @ #1 obviously

    – trade #16 and Nikitin to St Louis for JBo (this pick will be EXTREMELY over-valued on draft day and must be dealt to address defense – if you can get a younger guy than JBo with top pair capabilty than so be it)

    – draft Rasmus Andersson @ #33

    – trade the Montreal 2nd rounder and St Louis 5th rounder to OTT for Anderson

    – trade Shultz and a Montreal 4th rounder for a late 2nd round pick and draft the Russian goalie Samsonov if he is still there

    I’d be sorely tempted to draft Samsonov at #33 because he’s going to be that good – only reason he will not be the top goalie selected in the draft is the Russian factor. But if we could walk away from this draft with the top center, top goalie, promising offensive defenseman, vet top pair dman and vet starting goalie – well just elect Chia king and be done with it 🙂

  70. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    AsiaOil,

    I don’t think JBo has the same value to the Oilers at the moment as a #16 pick in a deep draft. He’s got maybe two to four impact seasons before the wheels start coming off, and his cap hit is considerable.

  71. nelson88 says:

    AsiaOil,

    Works for me but let’s trade the #33 for say #40 and #55 and pick Juulsen and Senyshyn

  72. AsiaOil says:

    I know but those 3 or 4 impact seasons are worth it right now after all the losing. The #16 is not a sure thing even in a deep draft – most likely outcome is something like Ethan Moreau if you take a forward. JBo would push everyone down the lineup until the young guys are ready in a couple of years. Add a guy like Michalek as a UFA and we are good to go.

    If you wanted to be really cagy and could afford a longer term view wrt to the cap – then you would actually consider drafting wingers right now to replace Eberle and Hall in 3 years when McDavid’s contract expires (if they are BPA). There is no way that we can afford to keep Eberle and Hall past the CMD entry level contract – so why not draft their replacements now and let them develop slowly. In 4 years you would have to pay the young centers and dmen – and some elite wingers on entry level contracts would be extremely handy. Hopefully Chia is playing chess unlike “checkers MacTavish”.

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    AsiaOil,

    I don’t think JBo has the same value to the Oilers at the moment as a #16 pick in a deep draft.He’s got maybe two to four impact seasons before the wheels start coming off, and his cap hit is considerable.

  73. Kmart99 says:

    kooler,

    What kind of

    LadiesloveSmid: Either of Larsson or Severson would be a perfect fit in Edmonton

    Does Yakupov get it done?

    Smart thing that Buffalo, NJ, and maybe Arizona have done is draft their Dmen high first. Takes them til 21-22 to really start contributing while high forwards may be 19. Hall will probably be ~26 by the time Nurse is really an effective Dman

    The oilers drafted Nurse, Klefbom and Marincin prior to drafting Draisaitl and McDavid, so there’s that.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    misfit,

    And sometimes they slide because some GMs think they are smarter than everyone else. Cam Fowler dropped all the way to 12th, past Mcilrath. He would go much higher in a redraft. Sean Coutourier dropped to eighth. Just because other guys made the mistake on passing on a player doesn’t make it the smart thing to do.

  75. russ99 says:

    If Stu is running the draft with Green’s and Chiarelli’s oversight, I won’t worry too much about Howson and MacT being around to mess everything up.

    But when it comes to FAs, we should be a little concerned.

    MacT’s decision making was blatantly bad at times, with Eakins, almost signing Clarkson in FA; kicking Gagner, Hemsky’s and Petry’s RFA contracts down the road, and not making that tough trade but he was fed bad information by the same pro scouts we have in place now, plus there’s still the MacT/Howson filter between the scouts and Chiarelli.

    I was hoping for a pro scout purge (and especially Howson) this summer, might still happen after the cup final.

    I’m torn about Crouse, hate the player type, you know kids bigger and tougher than other kids at that level often lose any advantage when playing against men, but he’d be pretty good value at 16. Let’s hope someone else picking before 16 makes that decision for us.

  76. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer:
    misfit,

    Sean Coutourier dropped to eighth.Just because other guys made the mistake on passing on a player doesn’t make it the smart thing to do.

    You know, as of today I’m not sure Couturier at 8 is that crazy.

    1. RNH
    2. Landeskog
    3. Huberdeau
    4. Larsson
    5. Strome
    6. Zibenejad
    7. Scheifele
    8. Couturier
    9. Hamilton
    10. Brodin

    I mean, now that we’re a few years out I think arguing Couturier is the 8th best of those guys is pretty reasonable. Maybe he’s ahead of Scheifele (who is starting to come along) and maybe one of Larsson/Huberdeau (I don’t think so for Larsson but there is an argument to be made).

    At the same time, in a redraft both Brodin and Hamilton go ahead of him.

    Weird, now that I look at that draft, there aren’t any world beater forwards, and there are a couple of defenders that are trending nicely, but overall the top 10 is all players that will be good contributors to their team.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    Jon K:
    The more things change, the more they stay the same?

    Last time a generational draft came around and the Oilers focused on size to the detriment of everything else? 2003.

    #22 Marc Pouliot 6’2″
    #51 Colin McDonald 6’2″
    #68 JF Jacques 6’3″
    #72 Mikhail Zhukov 6’2″
    #94 Zach Stortini 6’4″
    #147 Kalle Olsson 6′
    #154 David Rohlfs 6’3″
    #184 Dragan Umicevic 6′
    #214 Kyle Brodziak 6’2″
    #215 Mathieu Roy 6’2″
    #248 Josef Hrabal 6′
    #278 Troy Bodie 6’5″

    The Oilers didn’t draft a single player under 6′, and all but two of the twelve picks are 6’2″ or over.

    I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.

    Yeah, but for what its worth the overwhelming majority of talent that came out of the 2003 draft were also big bastards.

    Staal-6’4″
    Horton- 6’2″
    vanek-6’2″
    Michalek-6’2″
    Phaneuf- 6’3″
    Carter-6’3″
    Seabrook-6’3″
    Getzlaf-6’4″
    Burns-6’5″
    Kesler-6’2″
    Boyle-6’7″
    Perry-6’3″
    Eriksson-6’2″
    Bergeron-6’2″
    Weber-6’4″
    Backes-6’3″
    Hejda-6’4″
    Byfuglien-6’5″

    About the only impact players to come out of that draft under 6 foot were Richards, Parise, and Pavelski. Great players, but in the minority.

    The problem with the Oilers was not that they focused too much on big players, but that they focused on the wrong big players.

    The Oilers also focused on the wrong small players over the years too. Out of that 2003 draft they later gave up assets to acquire Nilsson, and O’Sullivan. Small skill guys that washed out.

    If you look at the list of smaller skill guys the Oilers have traded for or drafted over the last ten years you could come to the conclusion that they should avoid making those types of acquisitions as well.

  78. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    All this Gagner talk. Voracek was higher rated, had speed and size.
    Oilers went with the smaller, more cerebral, lower ranked player with the big NHLe . This may have failed to account for Kane carrying that line.

    Pendulum may have swung a tad too much to using NHLe as gospel. Projecting the most toolsy , talented players likely to have good careers is as important, if not more so than what a player’s draft eligible season equates to in points. That’s why we have scouts.

    Zacha, for example, his NHLE is weak, but he is toolsy. If you think he projects to be a good pro, take him anyway. But you better trust the guys making that call.

  79. j says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, but for what its worth the overwhelming majority of talent that came out of the 2003 draft were also big bastards.

    Staal-6’4″
    Horton- 6’2″
    vanek-6’2″
    Michalek-6’2″
    Phaneuf- 6’3″
    Carter-6’3″
    Seabrook-6’3″
    Getzlaf-6’4″
    Burns-6’5″
    Kesler-6’2″
    Boyle-6’7″
    Perry-6’3″
    Eriksson-6’2″
    Bergeron-6’2″
    Weber-6’4″
    Backes-6’3″
    Hejda-6’4″
    Byfuglien-6’5″

    About the only impact players to come out of that draft under 6 foot were Richards, Parise, and Pavelski. Great players, but in the minority.

    The problem with the Oilers was not that they focused too much on big players, but that they focused on the wrong big players.

    The Oilers also focused on the wrong small players over the years too. Out of that 2003 draft they later gave up assets to acquire Nilsson, and O’Sullivan. Small skill guys that washed out.

    If you look at the list of smaller skill guys the Oilers have traded for or drafted over the last ten years you could come to the conclusion that they should avoid making those types of acquisitions as well.

    This is really the crux of the issue – well summarized. It sounds like Chia understands the need for ‘compete’ in every player. That really is the key. You may be able to underweigh ‘compete’ if a player has world class skills in other aspects of his game but you can’t discount it completely. The Oilers have either gone too far left (all skill) or too far right (all toughness). As noted above, there are many options in between. Hopefully we have turned that page…

  80. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, but for what its worth the overwhelming majority of talent that came out of the 2003 draft were also big bastards.

    Staal-6’4″
    Horton- 6’2″
    vanek-6’2″
    Michalek-6’2″
    Phaneuf- 6’3″
    Carter-6’3″
    Seabrook-6’3″
    Getzlaf-6’4″
    Burns-6’5″
    Kesler-6’2″
    Boyle-6’7″
    Perry-6’3″
    Eriksson-6’2″
    Bergeron-6’2″
    Weber-6’4″
    Backes-6’3″
    Hejda-6’4″
    Byfuglien-6’5″

    Craziest thing about that list, even though it’s only the big guys, is how much better the 6-10 group is than the 1-5

    Carter-6’3″
    Seabrook-6’3″
    Getzlaf-6’4″
    Burns-6’5″
    Kesler-6’2″

    is so much better than

    Staal-6’4″
    Horton- 6’2″
    vanek-6’2″
    Michalek-6’2″
    Phaneuf- 6’3″

    Not even a little better, just massively better at every point.

    Neat.

  81. rickithebear says:

    russ99: If Stu is running the draft with Green’s and Chiarelli’s oversight, I won’t worry too much about Howson and MacT being around to mess everything up.

    In what world is the 13-14 drafts messed up.

    Signed
    Nurse 6’4″ 205lb futre shutdoewn D
    Yakimov 6’5″ 232lb
    Slepyshev6’2″ 195Lb
    both from the elite cluster of junior Russian goal scorers Kovi; Ovi; Malkin; tarasenko
    Draisatl 6’1″ 210lb 63Pt NHLE
    ———————————–
    signed will see at 23
    Platzer 6′ 180lb AHL 4gm 2G 1A
    Betker mobil 6’6″ 222lb shutdown Dman.
    Chase 6′ 190lb

    Developing NCAA
    Muir 6’4″ 212lb FR W. Mich 12G 23SA NHLE
    Campbell 6’1″ 195lb U mass Lowell top 20 scorer HE
    Nagelvoort top 3 Save % goalie prospect group Gilles; Demco
    Vesel Neb-Omh On FR impact line

    little chance
    Coughlin 6’3″ 200lb NHLE 7G 14A
    Bouchard Chabot choice

    Not Signed:
    MOR
    Houck

  82. leadfarmer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I think a big part of that is Coutourier usage. He has been getting the tough zone starts now for 3 years. You give him Zibanejads minutes or Stromes minutes I’m sure his offense goes up. In case you don’t want to look it up he is in the top far left of the sledgehammer

  83. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: You know, as of today I’m not sure Couturier at 8 is that crazy.

    1. RNH
    2. Landeskog
    3. Huberdeau
    4. Larsson
    5. Strome
    6. Zibenejad
    7. Scheifele
    8. Couturier
    9. Hamilton
    10. Brodin

    I mean, now that we’re a few years out I think arguing Couturier is the 8th best of those guys is pretty reasonable.Maybe he’s ahead of Scheifele (who is starting to come along) and maybe one of Larsson/Huberdeau (I don’t think so for Larsson but there is an argument to be made).

    At the same time, in a redraft both Brodin and Hamilton go ahead of him.

    Weird, now that I look at that draft, there aren’t any world beater forwards, and there are a couple of defenders that are trending nicely, but overall the top 10 is all players that will be good contributors to their team.

    That’s a hell of a top ten in retrospect. Not a single bust, & those who started a bit slow are coming along nicely.

  84. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That’s a hell of a top ten in retrospect. Not a single bust, & those who started a bit slow are coming along nicely.

    Coming along nicely indeed. RNH is a terrific 3rd line centre already at his tender age.

  85. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I think a big part of that is Coutourier usage.He has been getting the tough zone starts now for 3 years.You give him Zibanejads minutes or Stromes minutes I’m sure his offense goes up.In case you don’t want to look it up he is in the top far left of the sledgehammer

    No, I know, I’m a fan. I’m not sure 8 is exactly right, I think you could make a case he’s as high as 5, but as low as 9, as of today.

    I’m sure he’s behind RNH, Landeskog, Brodin, and Hamilton… after that it’s anyone’s guess. Just saying I’m not sure “OMG he fell to 8th” is as big a deal as it was 3 years ago.

    But yeah, great player for an 8th pick, I’ve got lots of time for Couturier.

  86. Bank Shot says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Craziest thing about that list, even though it’s only the big guys, is how much better the 6-10 group is than the 1-5

    Carter-6’3″
    Seabrook-6’3″
    Getzlaf-6’4″
    Burns-6’5″
    Kesler-6’2″

    is so much better than

    Staal-6’4″
    Horton- 6’2″
    vanek-6’2″
    Michalek-6’2″
    Phaneuf- 6’3″

    Not even a little better, just massively better at every point.

    Neat.

    Yeah the 2003 draft was really weird that way. For one of the best drafts of all time the top five is really nothing special.

  87. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Coming along nicely indeed. RNH is a terrific 3rd line centre already at his tender age.

    Just wait ’til he scores 50 pts. With his defensive responsibility, I can see him making it as 2C if he can do that.

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Coming along nicely indeed. RNH is a terrific 3rd line centre already at his tender age.

    You’re baiting me, aren’t you?

  89. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You’re baiting me, aren’t you?

    Heh, well when you serve up a lob like that!

  90. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: Something similar happened with Gernat, didn’t it? Where Green was tipped off by Edmonton Scouting (Musil) that Gernat was willing to play Junior in NA?

    Twice.

    The Oilers under MacGregor tipped Green off about Gernat (they had him at #32 overall) and so the Oil Kings and Oilers both drafted him over a period of less than a week, if I recall correctly, based on that intel.

    Something similar with Pelss. Musil did some leg work to determine that Pelss would come over to North America and so the Oilers took him in the 7th.

    The Pelss thing spawned my interest in writing my corporate integration article for ON way back wherein I argued that integrating the Oilers’ and Oil Kings’ scouting departments to collect data on players from their 15 year old season on up (and eventually to add in an AHL angle as well) would be highly beneficial for the organization and a sound business move in terms of overall product management.

  91. speeds says:

    spoiler: IMHO…

    After the first few picks, BPA is difficult to determine. About best that can be said is that players are in groups or tiers, and even then it’s tough to agree on who is in which tier.

    So it’s kind of a ridiculous argument.BPA usually turns out to be some fan’s draft favorite who was passed over and then went on to be successful.

    Just look at the various rankings and observe the amount of variance there is in the top 30.That variance only increases as the draft proceeds deeper.

    I’m a believer in BPA, particularly earlyish in the draft for the reasons you talk about, but there are practical exceptions that need to be considered.

    For example, you probably don’t want to draft 5 G’s in one draft even if they are the BPA because how do you develop them all?

    I think that issue is less pressing for other positions, but can see that you also don’t really want to be taking 7 LW’s in the same draft. That is different, to me, from looking at the depth chart and saying, well, we could use a D, and drafting an inferior D instead of a better forward in round 1 or 2 when you aren’t dealing with a significant organizational blockage at either postion.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca