VANTAGE POINT

We are 23 days from the NHL Entry Draft and the power and the glory. Peter Chiarelli is working hard, Todd McLellan is running through reams of foolscap figuring out lines and pairings, and fans are dreaming of winning on opening night. The sun shines often enough for life to be good and we’re staring a summer holiday straight in the face. Things are well in our northern town.

  • Connor McDavid about his combine interview with the Oilers: “It was exciting and obviously that’s the kind of team you want to be with if you are drafted No. 1. [Chiarelli] was saying all the right things. He was intense and he’s definitely looking to win. He’s not going to settle for mediocrity. I just want to make an impression with teams I talk to, make sure they understand what kind of guy I am and what I can bring to their team. Other than that I just want to make sure they know I’m doing all the right things, working hard in the gym, and maybe they’ll put together a decent score for me.” Source

It’s very difficult to contain excitement and we’re three weeks away. I’m like a day away from ‘giants walk among us’ and ‘will he score 90 or 120 points as a rookie?’ but pledge to you that the hyperbole will be (slightly) less here than Kardashian level. Poor McDavid, when he does his pre-draft visit to Edmonton it could get crazy. Connor McDavid appears to be a typical teenager, but Edmonton is ready for Beatlemania. It’ll be fine.

THE SUMMER OF TODDS

nelson capture34

There appears to be a chance that Todd Nelson will be part of the Todd McLellan coaching staff. Aside from hilarious moments at the office (“Todd, line two, it’s urgent and they need to talk to only you!”) it’s also a good idea for Edmonton.

  • Darren Dreger: He still has three years remaining on his AHL contract with Edmonton and I’m told that there’s been some discussion with Todd McLellan and he could be back on the Oilers’ bench helping Todd McLellan. Source via Source.

For at least next season, having Nelson around would be beneficial for all kinds of players. From Lander to Marincin to Brandon Davidson and Laurent Brossoit, Nelson would have a story and know the abilities of each player. Hope this happens. One thing we’re going to see, and I’m pretty sure on this, is a major culling of the coaching staff. I’m not sure who is a coach and who is a vice-president at this point, but man o man (60’s phrase) there’s a boatload of them.

ANDREJ SEKERA OFF THE MARKET SOON?

  • Dean Lombardi on Sekera’s situation: “I think we have the parameters of a number. Up until late last week, often times it’s hard to get even a number to see if you can plug it in. So I think we’d have to arrange that it would take. Now, have we been countered with an offer yet? No. That’s all I can say on that one now. I would say that I don’t think his number’s outrageous. He’d like to stay here, and so by virtue of that, he ends up in some of your schematics.” Source

It could be stark on July 1st, it looks like Godot’s dream of Franson might be the only reasonable option. Folks, this is looking more and more like a trade summer. The cost of Cody Franson and Mike Green just went up and I don’t think anyone believes Edmonton has the assets to trade for a top 4D and a starting goalie. Back in the olden days, the Oilers would trade two picks for Jason Smith or find Steve Staios for just money, but that kind of thing doesn’t happen for the Oilers nowadays. The current D depth chart (Nikitin, Fayne, Ference, Klefbom, with Marincin and Schultz RFA) is so far away from adequate the mind boggles at the job ahead.

What would you do? Seriously. Petry is signed, it sounds like they’re going to take a run at Sekera in Los Angeles. MacT put this team in a helluva spot and it’s going to cost more than just money to get back to even (and that was no screaming hell). Ghastly decision, effectively wiping away the progress made in other areas and stapling Chiralli’s first summer to the bottom of the sea. That’s a whole lotta awful, folks. You know what doesn’t work in the modern NHL front office? Stubborn. The more I look at this, I like the idea of trading for the right to negotiate with Cody Franson. Thoughts?

DRAFT OPTIONS

Evilas had a good idea in the comments section yesterday, saying “Regarding draft predictions, I think it would be more interesting to pick 5 players that the Oilers might be targeting per pick. Given the depth of this draft, I predict that there will be a lot of deviation this year. So, to use 5 players/pick would provide a better cushion from this. I too have a sense that Chiarelli will be picking Crouse at 16, if they keep the pick and if he is still on the board.”

So, let’s try that for the first four (these need to be top dead center):

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid
  • No. 16 overall: R Timo Meier, L Evgeni Svechnikov, D Jeremy Roy, C Pavel Zacha, D Thomas Chabot
  • No. 33 overall: C Anthony Beauvillier, R Blake Speers, D Oliver Kylington, R Brock Boeser, G MacKenzie Blackwood
  • No. 57 overall: D Ethan Bear, L Ryan Gropp, D Noah Juulsen, L Jordan Greenway, D Matt Spencer

The Oilers should come out of the first two rounds with some outstanding bets. IF they draft Blackwood and go off the board for Dennis Gilbert, we’ll know that analytics didn’t breath any air in the war room. However, if Edmonton plucks McDavid, Svechnikov, Beauvillier and Bear? Music! There are teams that are going to come out of this draft with Getzlaf—Perry levels of fantastic, pray baby Jesus we are one.

fonda capture

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show with a variety of guests, it’s going to be fun. TSN 1260 this morning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Bruce wrote an informative piece on Justin Schultz yesterday, we’ll talk about areas that Schultz could be useful on a winning team.
  • Jimmy Quinlan, Edmonton Rush and Co-director, Vimy Lacrosse. Edmonton Rush on the verge of a championship, we’ll talk to Jimmy about the long road to glory.
  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. We didn’t get our Monday chat, but Scott will help tee-up the SCF’s as they begin tonight.
  • Neal Livingston, Tend The Farm. Our final look at the Barons, with Neal offering his all-time team.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

130 Responses to "VANTAGE POINT"

  1. frjohnk says:

    If Franson is the best D available I would take him as a second/third pairing PP option.

    But he can not face the tough competition.

    He was top 20 in when on the ice by allowing the most high danger chances for/60 minutes 5 on 5 last year. Fasth would just love playing behind him.

    But if we are looking for a top pairing D man or at least a number 3 D man, I don’t think Franson is the guy.

    Looking at the UFA D list for 2016

    Mark Giordano
    Ben Lovejoy
    Brent Seabrook
    Dustin Bfugulian
    Braydon Coburn
    Keith Yandle
    Kris Russell
    Erik Johnson

    I think most of these guys get signed before next summer.

    We probably wont get a top pairing D man through free agency.

    If we want a top pairing D man, we need to either draft and development them. We have two ( Klefbom and Nurse) who have a good chance to do that. No other prospects fit the bill.

    or
    we trade a significant piece to get a top pairing D man.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    Take a run at Sekera in NJ?

    Sorry LT don’t mean to be nitpicky.

  3. stush18 says:

    I wonder what parkattis(?) draft model says about trading down this draft? Seems to me this could be a draft where we turns 2 swings into 5 more and then make contact on 4 of them.

    I wouldnt advocate moving 16, but even 33 could be turned into a mid 2nd and a 3rd.

    If there was ever a draft to grab as many picks as possible, this seems to be it.

  4. Hall Awaits says:

    The idea of trading for Franson’s rights is intriguing. Does a third rounder get it done?
    If Petry is 5.5 you have to think Franson cones in at 6.

    I think you’re absolutely right about the trade thing though LT. I think we’re more likely to see the names Seabrook (wishful thinking) and Seidenberg then Sekera or Franson.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    So Petry signing yesterday show two things. How clueless MacT is about the value of defensemen by offering Nikitin 4.5 mil per year while the final offer for Petry being around 4 million. And how poorly this team showed the true value of Petry to the rest of the league. Guys that sign 5.5 million dollar contracts typically go for more than a second round pick and a conditional mid round pick. Toronto got a much better return for Cody Franson who had trouble getting ice time even when Nashville lost Weber. When the Oilers knew that Petry was most likely to be traded they should have given him all of Schultz PP time to maximize his return.

    If Sekera is gone. Other than maybe getting Michalek if he isn’t too expensive, I think I would stay out of the Free agent group this year. Franson will want something like Petry got and there is no way he is worth anything close to that

  6. sumaclab says:

    I don’t drink and I am still showing up at the Pint for the draft party.Squueee.My 50th birthday is on the 25th of June so a day late gift of McDavid is ok by me. SC by the time I hit 55!!!!

    Trade,best option. Franson has already said did he not that he would go back to Toronto now that Babcock is coach?

    I would squeee all the way home if Pavel Zacha and Blackmore are 2 of the picks the Oilers bring home from this draft.

    Nelson has become a guy that the fans are attached to.He not only could bridge the gap between the players he could also do the same thing for the fans.We’ll need time to warm up to Mclland.

  7. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk:
    If we want a top pairing D man, we need to either draft and development them.We have two ( Klefbom and Nurse) who have a good chance to do that.No other prospects fit the bill.

    or
    we trade a significant piece to get a top pairing D man.

    Another option is to keep looking for a top pairing D man, but in the mean time re-shift focus to getting more top 4 options. There might not be a top 2 option available for cheap, even with a big contract, but what about a smaller bet. Montreal just signed Petry and has got a lot of cap tied up on D. Everyone talks about Emelin, but Matty mentioned Gilbert.

    Could Gilbert at $2.8M for a year be had for a mid-round pick?

    He’d be a step-up from what the Oilers have. Not ideal, but at least is incremental improvement. What other options are out there? NYCOIL mentioned Torey Krug a little while ago.

  8. Attila says:

    16. Thomas Chabot D- 6’2” 188 U18 Can. Nat. team QMJHL star
    16. Brandon Carlo D- 6’5” 200 mean- US Nat. U20 Team
    16. Jakub Zboril- D 6’1” U18 Czech. Team QMJHL star
    16. Kyle Connor- C 6’1” a steal here

    33. Gabriel Carlsson D 6’3” #1D CS Euro. List- rising star
    33. Joel Eriksson Ek C 6’2” U18 Sweden star -a steal here
    33. Noah Juulsen D – WHL – rising fast in last 2-3 months
    33. Jacob Larsen D – #2D CS Europe
    33. Ryan Pilon D 6’2’’ 210 Brandon tough smooth D

    57. Filip Ahl- W 6’3” mean Swede
    57. Nicholas Meloche- D 6’2” 205
    57. Jack Roslovic- C 6’1” US Nat. Team U18 star

    79. Jonas Siegenthaler D – 6’3” 220 sleeper U18 tournament Swiss- mean
    79. Alex Dergachyov C 6’3” Russ. U20 Nat. Team
    79. Dmytro Tymashov W- 5’10” 195 fireplug/speed
    79. Gabriel Gagne W 6’5” 186 slick & big

    86. Rasmus Andersson D
    86. Erik Cernak D

    WOW…what a Draft…

  9. sumaclab says:

    Who do you billet MDavid with this fall? And good gravy what if Nurse and LD also make the team? One house and you hire a cook,a housekeeper and a retired exNHLer to oversee all.

    Imagine a house with Hall Ebs Nurse Mcdavid and LD in it?

  10. Clay says:

    With every UFA dman that comes off the market before July 1, it becomes more and more likely that the only way the Oilers will seriously compete with McDavid on his entry-level deal is to trade a major piece (or pieces) to Frankenstein a defense together.

    It’s not what anyone wants to hear, but it’s a fact. It comes down to:

    – Stay the course, let Nurse, Klefbom, et al develop, which may take 5+ years (with no guarantees they become top pairing quality), during which time one or more of the young forwards are sent away because there’s no way to sign them all under the cap.

    – Go after the free agents who are left, which will most likely involve giving much too much money and term for a player who is close to or already past his peak (for example – Seabrook is looking for $8m x 8 years for his next contract, and he’ll be 31 years old). Said overpay means not enough room under the cap to sign all the young forwards, so one or more are sent away anyway.

    – Trade one or more of Eberle, Yakupov, Drai, etc NOW for a legit young top pairing who will allow the team to compete more immediately while there are still some value contracts on the books.

    I’d take option 3. It sucks, and I love all these kids, but the hard reality of the NHL right now is that young stud dmen are worth a king’s ransom. You can sit around and hope one falls in your lap somehow, or you can trade Eberle + Yakupov + next year’s first for one. And even that might not net you what you’re looking for.

    Leaving the fortunes of the team to the chance that the top pairing defenceman they need will be available and willing to sign July 1, or will develop internally, means risking the chance of winning during the McDavid window. I believe Chia will be more proactive than that.

  11. linkfromhyrule says:

    I think Martin or Erhoff (if he is willing to sign a short-term deal) could still be reasonable bets. Franson sounds like a slightly better Schultz, and last time I checked we do still have the “S” in FSN. One of the older vet D could be a useful stop-gap. We can’t continue to fill our D with bottom-pairing players playing above their established level of ability.

    The organization seems to have shown that they are not afraid of hard-targeting. First Chia, now McLellan. I would hope they have one or two players in mind for July 1. Sekera, then Martin?

    I don’t agree with trading picks for the right to talk to players. When you do that, the power is entirely in the player/agent’s court. “Overpay or we walk” and you traded your pick for nothing. I maintain that is what happened with Nikitin, and we all know how that has turned out.

  12. russ99 says:

    People go off the market just before hitting FA and signing top UFAs is ridiculously expensive every year.

    Just because our targets may not be there, be vastly overpriced or prefer other landing spots doesn’t mean we should stop short and give up, MacT-style.

    Lots of possibilities left to us, even if we can’t get a top pairing guy in UFA:

    Move 16 or 33 and prospects for a 2nd pairing D, sign two lesser yet still capable NHL defensemen for the price of a Sekera later in FA, make a deal before/during camp for a future FA/holdout like the Islanders did for Boychuk and Leddy, grab someone off waivers next year, etc.

  13. OF17 says:

    If Kylington is there at 33, we absolutely have to take him. The offense he was able to put up this year in the SEL is nothing short of incredible. Better than Oscar Klefbom, better than Jonas Brodin, better than Hampus Lindholm, better than Adam Larsson, and all the while getting praise for skating, smarts, and two-way play.

    If “attitude issues” are the reason you don’t draft a guy like that, the problem is with you, not him. Ask Tampa if they regret taking a 2PPG RHD at #19 last year who fell due to “attitude issues.”

  14. speeds says:

    Will they look at Hamilton as an RFA option if the UFA’s are gone/not interested in Edmonton?

  15. Rational Zealot says:

    Assets in:

    Nashville D
    Cam Talbot or Eddie Lack
    Mark Staal

    Assets out:
    Boyd Gordon
    Eberle/Yakupov (depending on D)
    #33 pick

    Give or take a little here and a little there to make it all work out.

    We are too far away to argue about how the dominoes effect the particulars but that’s what’s available. Nashville has a surplus of young, good, D and a deficit at forwards. The Rangers are against the cap.

    You aren’t going to get better value than those two places.

    {Edit} If you can add Ekholm, Staal, and Talbot in this offseason you’ve done well. Someone is going to shake loose from the Rangers, it might as well be Staal. Ekholm is a little trickier since Eberle (hopefully) has too much value and Yakupov (definitely) has too little. So Eberle for Ekholm and Nashville’s first round pick. Turn that pick into Staal and Talbot. Throw Boyd Gordon on the bus somewhere to make them happy and away you go.

  16. oilswell says:

    One option:. Recognize and accept the D cannot be fixed this year and invest for the next offseason. Spend assets (trade) and money (ufa) on two goalies this year. Whatever best deals are there. Lack or Talbot. Neuwirth or Enroth. Best bet to make up goal differential. Buy what is possible on D so long as it is not a boat anchor term. Next year Nurse and Klefbom are older, the anchors are gone or more tradeable. Count on McDavid’s demonstrated promise to make the place attractive to the top ufas. Try to make a trade during the year to turn a high end F into a high end D one year older.

    I get that moving promise in the forwards is robbing Peter to pay Paul, but Paul needs to be paid, Peter can afford it, and if one does not pull that trigger one should lose all rights to haughtily claim that taking bpa in the draft is the right choice. Seriously.

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ah yes, talk turns to the topic of the D and the room gets gloomy.

    What happened to the possibility of getting a Boychuk or Leddy type acquisition from a cap strapped team? We giving up on that now.

    If the answer is Cody Franson, then you need to change the question.

  18. misfit says:

    Trading for the right to negotiate with Franson would be like duplicating the exact same thing we did with Nikitin just a year ago, and I’m not convinced we’ll be adding a defenseman who’s a whole lot better to be honest.

    The only way I even entertain the notion of bringing in Franson is if we can trade Schultz in a package for a real top 4 defenseman who will actually have a positive impact on this team’s fortunes.

  19. Marc says:

    The thing with Franson is that Chia probably knows him better than any other non-Boston UFA. He’s seen him play 18 games against Boston over the past three seasons.

    I checked the box scores of those games and I’d be surprised if Chia came away thinking that this is guy worth a big long term contract. In two of the three games Franson played against Boston this season he played fewer than 16 minutes – third pairing minutes basically. He had a couple of monster games in the playoff series, but was on the ice for four of the five Boston goals in the epic game seven collapse.

    Given Chia’s repeated emphasis on playing hard (which is a word I don’t think I’ve ever seen in a scouting report for Franson) and his healthy scratch in the playoffs for Nashville, I’d be shocked if Chia thought he was the answer.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    If Boychuk could be had for two 2nds and a 3rd, does the #16 land you an even better D from a team up against the cap? The issue here is most teams will push themselves harder against the cap after the madness known as free agency, so we’re likely to be dealing next year’s picks.

    Given Chia was the GM dealing Boychuk, he should certainly recognize the GMs in a similar predicament. Patience is the key in this particular game of musical chairs.

  21. Chris says:

    Which “The Pint” is the draft party at? Both? I might want to make the trip up from Calgary.

  22. Pouzar says:

    OF17: If Kylington is there at 33, we absolutely have to take him. The offense he was able to put up this year in the SEL is nothing short of incredible. Better than Oscar Klefbom, better than Jonas Brodin, better than Hampus Lindholm, better than Adam Larsson, and all the while getting praise for skating, smarts, and two-way play. If “attitude issues” are the reason you don’t draft a guy like that, the problem is with you, not him. Ask Tampa if they regret taking a 2PPG RHD at #19 last year who fell due to “attitude issues.”

    I freely admit I have not seen 98.99% of these draft eligible players but Swedishposter’s post yesterday on Kylington has me intrigued. And this post has me excited. thx.

  23. Bag of Pucks says:

    Great news about Nelly btw. Would love to see him sticking with the big club.

  24. Lowetide says:

    oilswell:
    One option:. Recognize and accept the D cannot be fixed this year and invest for the next offseason.Spend assets (trade) and money (ufa) on two goalies this year.Whatever best deals are there.Lack or Talbot. Neuwirth or Enroth.Best bet to make up goal differential.Buy what is possible on D so long as it is not a boat anchor term.Next year Nurse and Klefbom are older, the anchors are gone or more tradeable.Count on McDavid’s demonstrated promise to make the place attractive to the top ufas.Try to make a trade during the year to turn a high end F into a high end D one year older.

    I get that moving promise in the forwards is robbing Peter to pay Paul, but Paul needs to be paid, Peter can afford it, and if one does not pull that trigger one should lose all rights to haughtily claim that taking bpa in the draft is the right choice.Seriously.

    I think that may end up being the outcome, planned or not. I also think guys like Phaneuf are going to have value beyond what we (I) may think.

  25. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    oilswell:
    One option:. Recognize and accept the D cannot be fixed this year and invest for the next offseason.Spend assets (trade) and money (ufa) on two goalies this year.Whatever best deals are there.Lack or Talbot. Neuwirth or Enroth.Best bet to make up goal differential.Buy what is possible on D so long as it is not a boat anchor term.Next year Nurse and Klefbom are older, the anchors are gone or more tradeable.Count on McDavid’s demonstrated promise to make the place attractive to the top ufas.Try to make a trade during the year to turn a high end F into a high end D one year older.

    I tend to agree with this.

    As painful as our defense is, most of that pain today is because we thought we needed to solve the problem yesterday. If a couple of years ago we hadn’t overpaid for square-pegs-for-round-holes we wouldn’t be in the mess we are today (Nikitin and Ference in, Petry out). We still would have been bad for those years, but we’d be free and clear this year. This is to say we’d have the cap room to take on a bad contract for a good player, which while not ideal is still better than a bad contract for a bad player (it’s Chara being overpaid for his age but still good vs. Nikikin being overpaid and not an NHL Dman).

    I hate to say it but I think the answer is to find a way to clear out Ference, and maybe Nikitin, and deal with the warts associated with running guys like Davidson in the third pairing and Klefbom in the first pairing. Put ourselves in a position to actually solve the problem correctly next year when guys like Nikitin and Purcell are off the books, we have a clearer understanding of the value of Klef/Marincin/Davidson, etc., and Ference (if he’s still here) can be bought out with only 1 year left.

    We can’t afford to have another player we regret signing standing in the way of keeping or acquiring the players we actually want on the team.

  26. Attila says:

    Marc:
    The thing with Franson is that Chia probably knows him better than any other non-Boston UFA. He’s seen him play 18 games against Boston over the past three seasons.

    I checked the box scores of those games and I’d be surprised if Chia came away thinking that this is guy worth a big long term contract.In two of the three games Franson played against Boston this season he played fewer than 16 minutes – third pairing minutes basically. He had a couple of monster games in the playoff series, but was on the ice for four of the five Boston goals in the epic game seven collapse.

    Given Chia’s repeated emphasis on playing hard (which is a word I don’t think I’ve ever seen in a scouting report for Franson) and his healthy scratch in the playoffs for Nashville, I’d be shocked if Chia thought he was the answer.

    Excellent points…he seems a very risky option now.

  27. thejonrmcleod says:

    Looks like there’s interest from the Oilers in Mike Reilly.

  28. DBO says:

    Offer sheet. Chia should raid the old village. Why would we pay Franson 6 million, Seabrook 8 million, etc. I would attack Boston.

    – Offer Sheet to Dougie Hamilton. 7 years $6.7 million (compensation 1st, 2nd, 3rd).
    – The Bruins then have to clear cap to accept him at this rate. Or you go to them first, tell them it is happening, and either work out a deal that includes NHLers today and picks (But none of our core) or you make a deal for Chara. 3 years of Chara, he would instantly be our best dman (even slowed like he is) and he comes off the books when McJesus gets paid. Either way you get a top pairing guy for at least 3 years, allowing your young dmen to develop and fill that role in 3 years time (or more if Hamilton).

    You then dump one of Nikitin or Schultz, and you have the money for a goalie and a 3 LW.

    blue skies, rainbows and unicorns then happen.

  29. letmycamerongo says:

    Now that Petry is signed long term to, in my opinion, a slight overpay does MTL start feeling a cap crunch with other Dmen? Do you think Emelin might become available. He’s signed until ’18 at a 4.1 cap hit. Some nice Corsi #’s with not a big zone push.

    MTL really needs to add some scoring and they are gonna need to pay for it. What would it take to get Emelin to free that cap space for MTL?

  30. Bos8 says:

    One Major lack on the Oiler team is meanness. So you have Ference the Boston Terrier facing off with some Doberman. It is to laugh. The Oilers need someone besides Nurse to read from the book ala Larry Robinson and co.

    They don’t need a designated human canonball, just a peacekeeper. Someone to ride shotgun on the twinkletoe speed demons.

    So once again if he qualifies “Draft Carlo’

  31. Lowetide says:

    Bos8:
    One Major lack on the Oiler team is meanness.So you have Ference the Boston Terrier facing off with some Doberman.It is to laugh.The Oilers need someone besides Nurse to read from the book ala Larry Robinson and co.

    They don’t need a designated human canonball, just a peacekeeper.Someone to ride shotgun on the twinkletoe speed demons.

    So once again if he qualifies“Draft Carlo’

    They have to be able to play.

  32. kinger_OIL says:

    Keeping Nelson around just doesn’t make sense, from an Organizational Behaviour perspective. Just like I don’t like MacT staying around. Just like I didn’t like that when Dallas came in, he had to keep all the old boy assistants. I get that Nelson is well liked, and probably will be a fine head coach someday, but he was the head coach of this team – the players on the team see him as a head coach. Let the new regime hire who they want.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Keeping Nelson around just doesn’t make sense, from an Organizational Behaviour perspective.Just like I don’t like MacT staying around.Just like I didn’t like that when Dallas came in, he had to keep all the old boy assistants.I get that Nelson is well liked, and probably will be a fine head coach someday, but he was the head coach of this team – the players on the team see him as a head coach.Let the new regime hire who they want.

    How do we know MacClellan doesn’t want Nelson? The new HC may be smart enough to recognize the value in retaining an assistant with extensive knowledge of both rosters (major and minor).

    They’ve cut the head off the snake. That was the crucial need.

    They don’t have to raze the entire org to find success. You can cut out some cancers. You don’t have to irradiate the entire body to do so.

  34. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide,

    Absolutely.

    Which winnows out the Klinkhammers and assorted knuckle draggers. Carlo seems to check all the boxes but comes with an extra ‘mean gene’. On the Oiler team there is a definite lack of the aforementioned.

    As a matter of fact there should be a ‘Mean Gene’ to be checked from now on. They’re overstocked with toothy, smiling boys.

    Less smiles, more feist.

    “Sorry great talent, unfortunately lack of ‘Mean Gene, Pass”

    When some behemoth picks you up and your toes are tippy tapping, you immediately enter the tone down, phase.

    )Misspent youth meeting old timey bouncers(

  35. Frank the dog says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Keeping Nelson around just doesn’t make sense, from an Organizational Behaviour perspective.Just like I don’t like MacT staying around.Just like I didn’t like that when Dallas came in, he had to keep all the old boy assistants.I get that Nelson is well liked, and probably will be a fine head coach someday, but he was the head coach of this team – the players on the team see him as a head coach.Let the new regime hire who they want.

    I’d suspect that Hockey is a bit like IT, where today’s employee is tomorrow’s manager and vice versa. No big deal. They also knew each other from Junior Hockey days, and they do appear to have a similar approach to each other, so this could turn out to be an exceptional coaching duo.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: They have to be able to play.

    Agreed, but man could this team use a pest like Linseman or Marchand. Someone to get the opposition’s best players off their game. One of the reasons I hated Perron going.

    I’m hoping Nurse could be this type of player. We haven’t had filthy nasty on the D side since Pronger.

  37. slopitch says:

    If my options are Franson at 6 million or stockpile assets for a future move, Im on team keep the draft picks and use them on skill players. All day.

    Eventually a player will be available. Pounce then.

    I offer sheet Hamilton all day too.

  38. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Lander has this element to his game.

  39. godot10 says:

    Franson is madness. The guy can’t defend. $5.5 million dollars with duration for a power play specialist. Klefbom, Nurse, and Schultz can play the power play. Nelson had the power play humming the latter half of the season. Franson would be a horrid waste of cap space.

    The most dangerous thing to get fooled by is points defensemen get on the powerplay.

  40. sliderule says:

    kinger_OIL,

    You are so right.

    Katz doesn’t want to fire anyone especially the glory boys.

    When I see the real cause of all their problems hanging out at Memorial cup I get concerned that maybe they are still into moving deck chairs on Titanic.

    Until Lowe has his office located in Kelowna I worry about the influence he will have on Chia and oilers.

  41. leadfarmer says:

    I’m sure its up to Chia to decide if he wants to keep Nelson and I’m guessing he does. Nelson is well respected by the players. He has very good knowledge of the players which Chia does not yet have. I also think Nelson might stick around for couple years. Sure he may get a head coaching job in Buffalo or Carolina but that job would be very difficult to keep for more than two years and then he may not get another head coaching job in the league again. I’m sure he takes that into account that if he works with McLellan for a couple of years and increases his exposure to other teams, in a couple years he could get a more desirable job one that would allow him to coach in this league for many years.

  42. speeds says:

    DBO:
    Offer sheet. Chia should raid the old village. Why would we pay Franson 6 million, Seabrook 8 million, etc. I would attack Boston.

    – Offer Sheet to Dougie Hamilton. 7 years $6.7 million (compensation 1st, 2nd, 3rd).
    – The Bruins then have to clear cap to accept him at this rate. Or you go to them first, tell them it is happening, and either work out a deal that includes NHLers today and picks (But none of our core) or you make a deal for Chara. 3 years of Chara, he would instantly be our best dman (even slowed like he is) and he comes off the books when McJesus gets paid. Either way you get a top pairing guy for at least 3 years, allowing your young dmen to develop and fill that role in 3 years time (or more if Hamilton).

    You then dump one of Nikitin or Schultz, and you have the money for a goalie and a 3 LW.

    blue skies, rainbows and unicorns then happen.

    Elliotte Friedman had the new compensation schedule in a recent 30 thoughts column (thought 2):

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-the-last-days-of-babwatch/

    Its up to 7.3M now as the limit for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in compensation, if that’s the reason you picked 6.7M (as that used to be the limit under the old comp schedule, IIRC).

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Lander has this element to his game.

    Do you see him as a pest, in other words, plays a little dirty at times?

    I agree that he works up the opposition a bit, but that seems largely due to the fact that he’s one of the few Oil that will consistently go to the paint.

    Seems more Tomas Holmstrom than Brad Marchand imo?

    Remember Bryan Marchment? Now there was a bastard masquerading as a hockey player.

  44. Marc says:

    I don’t know if anyone has posted this, but it’s looking less and less likely that Sekera hits the market: http://www.latimes.com/sports/kings/la-sp-lombardi-kings-20150603-story.html

    “The focus is trying to re-sign goalie Martin Jones, forward Tyler Toffoli and defenseman Andrej Sekera, another pending unrestricted free agent. Lombardi said he did not think Sekera’s number was “outrageous” and that Sekera would like to stay in Los Angeles.”

  45. DBO says:

    speeds,

    yep that was the reason. i go to the edge of that next level of compensation. overpay sure, but secures exactly what we need. either directly with getting him, or forcing their hand and getting Chara

  46. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I haven’t really thought about it to be honest, I’ve just heard that he gets under people’s skin. Agreed we need more of it, regardless of whether or not Lander qualifies.

    If I’m being honest I just really like Lander… so I try to talk him up as much as possible.

  47. Klima's_Bucket says:

    The thread today is circling around a few items.

    The Oilers need a right shot Dman.
    The Oilers need someone nasty.
    The Oilers need someone that can play.

    Why don’t the Oilers solve those 3 items by acquiring Erik Gudbranson.
    He’s a big, nasty, right shot Dman that can play and the Panthers have Petrovic, Matheson and McCoshen knocking on the door which makes him more expendable to the Panthers.

    The Cats crave talent up front. Could be a win win.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I haven’t really thought about it to be honest, I’ve just heard that he gets under people’s skin.Agreed we need more of it, regardless of whether or not Lander qualifies.

    If I’m being honest I just really like Lander…so I try to talk him up as much as possible.

    I like him too. Great to see a player fight through a poor development process and come out the other side.

    That said, unlike LT, I’m not convinced he’s fully arrived yet. Need to see it for an entire season.

    Nelson staying would be HUGE for him. Doubt he’ll get the same PP mins under MacClellan though.

  49. misfit says:

    Gudbranson is indeed a RS defenseman who is big and nasty, but the part that comes into serious question is the “can play” part of his game. And, unfortunately for us, is the most important factor.

    Gudbranson is apparently still riding on draft day hype if anyone thinks he could be the answer to anything here. He’s firmly a bottom pairing guy. He might one day develop into a player who could accompany a real top 4 defenseman on a second pairing, but he’s far from that now (and I personally don’t see him ever being more than what he is even though he’s only 23).

  50. Rational Zealot says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    The thread today is circling around a few items.

    The Oilers need a right shot Dman.
    The Oilers need someone nasty.
    The Oilers need someone that can play.

    Why don’t the Oilers solve those 3 items by acquiring Erik Gudbranson.
    He’s a big, nasty, right shot Dman that can play and the Panthers have Petrovic, Matheson and McCoshen knocking on the door which makes him more expendable to the Panthers.

    The Cats crave talent up front. Could be a win win.

    Because Gudbranson isn’t that good and would cost a lot. Ekholm is much better than he is and, likely, would acquire less to acquire. The only issue is that Ekholm is a left handed shot. But you work with what is available.

    For Gudbranson: reputation > ability.

    It doesn’t pay to acquire guys like that.

  51. Pouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: The thread today is circling around a few items.The Oilers need a right shot Dman.The Oilers need someone nasty.The Oilers need someone that can play.Why don’t the Oilers solve those 3 items by acquiring Erik Gudbranson.He’s a big, nasty, right shot Dman that can play and the Panthers have Petrovic, Matheson and McCoshen knocking on the door which makes him more expendable to the Panthers.The Cats crave talent up front. Could be a win win.

    Darnell Nurse.
    Not a RH shot but played the right side in the AHL playoffs and he covers the bet for your other criteria.

  52. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Pouzar,

    Could you imagine a Nurse/Gudbranson pairing?

  53. raventalon40 says:

    frjohnk:
    If Franson is the best D available I would take him as a second/third pairing PP option.

    But he can not face the tough competition.

    He was top 20 in when on the ice by allowing the most high danger chances for/60 minutes 5 on 5 last year.Fasth would just love playing behind him.

    But if we are looking for a top pairing D man or at least a number 3 D man, I don’t think Franson is the guy.

    Looking at the UFA D list for 2016

    Mark Giordano
    Ben Lovejoy
    Brent Seabrook
    Dustin Bfugulian
    Braydon Coburn
    Keith Yandle
    Kris Russell
    Erik Johnson

    I think most of these guys get signed before next summer.

    We probably wont get a top pairing D man through free agency.

    If we want a top pairing D man, we need to either draft and development them.We have two ( Klefbom and Nurse) who have a good chance to do that.No other prospects fit the bill.

    or
    we trade a significant piece to get a top pairing D man.

    I would think Winnipeg has trouble re-signing Scheifele, Trouba, Ladd and Byfuglien. We could try to flip them for Big Buff, and signing him long term.

  54. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Rational Zealot,

    What isn’t Gudbranson good at aside from putting up points?
    He’s a menace in his own end for the opposition, great on the PK, and makes a solid first pass.

  55. Pouzar says:

    raventalon40: I would think Winnipeg has trouble re-signing Scheifele, Trouba, Ladd and Byfuglien. We could try to flip them for Big Buff, and signing him long term.

    I gotta think Buff is headed straight to FA. It’s his last big contract and some team will give it to him. I would be mildly surprised if he resigns in WPG.

  56. haters says:

    Time to start talking about swapping picks with T.O …. Seems the only way to fix our D corps and goalie situation ..

    Lol jk, screw Toronto. Let’s stop thinking Stanley cup playoffs next year and more what MacT said, that this is a development season. It will be fun to watch but we all need to tone down expectations for next year.

    No playoffs again but much closer and more enjoyable to watch.

    No one is going to deal with us. Every team pretty much hates the Oil ATM .. Can u blame them ?

  57. OilSafety says:

    sumaclab,

    That screams poor risk management, if anything happened to that house it would set back the team by decades. Jk.
    Termites in the foundation causing a collapse, fire when everyone’s asleep, jet engine falling from the sky…
    Having all those key talents together is a risk in itself. Obviously you cant keep them apart all the time, but the frequency by which there together only increases the risk.

    That could just be he paranoia setting in. We have seen such a windfall of fortune lately, surely the hockey gords cant be this kind.

  58. raventalon40 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Rational Zealot,

    What isn’t Gudbranson good at aside from putting up points?
    He’s a menace in his own end for the opposition, great on the PK,and makes a solid first pass.

    He’s Jason Smith.

    I want.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Pouzar, Could you imagine a Nurse/Gudbranson pairing?

    A mean pairing for sure.

  60. gd says:

    Is there a day when the official Salary Cap Number for 2015-16 gets announced?

    It seems to me if the cap is $71Mill that would actually mean there will be less money chasing UFAs this year than less year as I think more teams are against the cap this year. Petry getting $1Mill more and 1 extra year over Stralman seems like an overpayment, unless the cap is going up more than anticipated. How many teams besides the Oilers, both can and want to give any of the D men on the UFA market over $5Mill over 5 years? I’m thinking only Dallas, Carolina, Toronto and Colorado, with maybe Calgary and New Jersey. I think if Chia reads the market accurately he can one okay guy for a reasonable overpayment/over-term. Then get a guy like Spurgeon, one of the Nashville guys or even Chara through the trade market.

  61. wheatnoil says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Looks like there’s interest from the Oilers in Mike Reilly.

    I missed this. Can you link to the source / tweet?

  62. raventalon40 says:

    gd:
    Is there a day when the official Salary Cap Number for 2015-16 gets announced?

    It seems to me if the cap is $71Mill that would actually mean there will be less money chasing UFAs this year than less year as I think more teams are against the cap this year. Petry getting $1Mill more and 1 extra year over Stralman seems like an overpayment, unless the cap is going up more than anticipated. How many teams besides the Oilers, both can and want to give any of the D men on the UFA market over $5Mill over 5 years? I’m thinking only Dallas, Carolina, Toronto and Colorado, with maybe Calgary and New Jersey. I think if Chia reads the market accurately he can one okay guy for a reasonable overpayment/over-term. Then get a guy like Spurgeon, one of the Nashville guys or even Chara through the trade market.

    Don’t want Chara. Not unless it’s salary for salary.

  63. misfit says:

    It’s too bad Vancouver is in our division and has tried to extort us for premium trade prices in the past. They have a few good defensemen who would be ideal adds for us. Tanev would be a perfect fit but obviously not available. However, both Edler and Hamhuis would do a lot to give us a top flight LD to pair with Fayne and share in the heavy lifting. I know Hamhuis is on the wrong side of 30 and only signed for this year, but I still think he’s worth acquiring. Edler would just be excellent.

    The focus among us fans has been on a top pairing RD, but I think a LD is just as important, if not more so.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Did you ever notice how many Americans have this weird sense of pride about their ignorance of our country?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAdDUD6L1nc&sns=em

    The correct reaction to this would be embarrassment.

    Hilarious that they all leave this category to the end. They’re all avoiding it like the plague and the soldier is the only one brave enough to go down in flames.

    Trebek as always, cashing cheques and snapping necks.

  65. Klima's_Bucket says:

    misfit,

    Chiarelli was very close to bringing Edler to Boston once upon a time.

  66. gr8one says:

    Thoughts on Jared Cowen. Other than being a LS his toolkit is ideal for our needs.

    He’s had looked great at times but obviously had some issues too, but to me he’s right at that age where D men really start to figure out the NHL game and is perfect age wise to fit our cluster. It’s also a “buy low” time.

    Thoughts?

  67. Bos8 says:

    People keep identifying successful D Men at the NHL level. The route should be the almost ready D before the success. Pro Scouts one step forward.

  68. Klima's_Bucket says:

    raventalon40: He’s Jason Smith.
    I want.

    Jason Smith was a first round pick that fell out of favour in New Jersey and then Toronto before moving on to Captain the Oilers.
    Erik Gudbranson was a first round pick that many people are souring on that could move on to Edmonton to…

  69. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    kinger_OIL,

    You are so right.

    Katz doesn’t want to fire anyone especially the glory boys.

    When I see the real cause of all their problems hanging out at Memorial cup I get concerned that maybe they are still into moving deck chairs on Titanic.

    Until Lowe has his office located in Kelowna I worry about the influence he will have on Chia and oilers.

    Not to defend Lowe, but Lowe was a Quebec Rempart, and the Memorial Cup was in Quebec City, and it was the swan song for the Colisee. It was not unreasonable for him to be there.

  70. striatic says:

    Gubrandsonmight not be the guy but this is the age range of D that should be targeted and from teams like Florida/Islanders/Nashville that have a surplus.

    I’d love to offer sheet Hamilton but you know McDavid is going to be an RFa soon, right? Do we really want to start a shooting war with that looming?

  71. Bos8 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Jason Smith was a first round pick that fell out of favour in New Jersey and then Toronto before moving on to Captain the Oilers.
    Erik Gudbranson was a first round pick that many people are souring on that could move on to Edmonton to…

    Absolutely, the right choice. We have a winner post.

  72. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Here is another nerdy look at goalies:

    http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot.ca/2015/06/updated-xsv-save-percentage-accounting.html

    The dynamic graph at the bottom lets you select number of goalies represented, and minimum shots faced. I had to increase the number of shots to find an Oiler goalie from last year, and it was ugly.

  73. wheatnoil says:

    I think the problem with the Hamilton offer sheet is I suspect Boston will match anything and will dismantle the rest of their team if necessary to keep him. They’ll move Lucic, Seidenberg, Marchand, Chara, who-ever it takes. I suspect Hamilton is their untouchable along with Bergeron and Rask. Everyone else is secondary. So the real benefit to the Oilers would be for someone else to offer sheet Hamilton, have Boston match, so Edmonton can swoop in and get some of these secondary options for cheap. (Assuming Chia has a better relationship with Sweeney than perhaps he did with Neely)

  74. Yeti says:

    “The more I look at this, I like the idea of trading for the right to negotiate with Cody Franson. Thoughts?”

    Can we trade Nikita Nikitin for the right to negotiate with Cody Franson? Pretty please??

  75. Pcot says:

    I have to disagree with some of the anti-Franson rhetoric. For a good summary of why, this older article highlights his significant success http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/playing-hardball-with-franson-will-cost-leafs/. Remember, when we discuss shots/attempts/scoring chances against we have to keep in mind the context. Franson had the toughest minutes on a crappy Toronto team and improved the team when he was on the ice. His common partner, Phaneuf, I believe had even worse rates (can’t load war-on-ice atm to confirm). As well, Franson killed the minutes he was given in Nashville, was seriously misused. He would easily be our best dman and with the contracts being handed out I strongly believe we should pursue and lock him in as a young ufa while there is still mass scepticism about his abilities.

  76. Jaxon says:

    I don’t think trading for rights to negotiate is often a winning formula. It absolutely hampers your ability to negotiate a price. You’ve already invested heavily in signing the player by giving up an asset, so they know they have you over a barrel and can up their ask as the GM will have egg on his face if they can’t sign the player. I think that’s why Nikitin got so overpaid.

  77. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Jaxon: they have you over a barrel

    A fourth or fifth round pick is a barrel?

  78. godot10 says:

    raventalon40: He’s Jason Smith.

    I want.

    The game has changed since Jason Smith. You can only have one of these guys. And Mark Fayne has that spot on the Oilers.

    The key attributes for a modern NHL defensemen. Mobility and skating ability. The ability to pass the puck, and make a good first pass. The ability to break the cycle. The ability to deny zone entry.

    Jason Smith is not a top 4 NHL defensemen in the modern NHL. On a competitive team, Jason Smith and Mark Fayne are 3rd pairing guys. The Oilers have Davidson and Musil backing up Fayne in this spot.

    So the Oilers have Gudbranson’s spot covered, at reasonable dollars in Fayne, with plenty of depth behind him.

    Meanness/nastiness is a bonus if the D has it. But in the modern NHL, it is a nice-to-have for D. Just like power play offense. They should have much less significance in valuing defensemen than the key skills mentioned earlier.

    There really is very little meanness or nastiness on the majority of the elite defenses in the NHL. Chicago, Tampa, New York Rangers, Montreal, St. Louis, Minnesota, Nashville.

    It is great if a defensemen has it, but it is not important.

  79. misfit says:

    gr8one:
    Thoughts on Jared Cowen. Other than being a LS his toolkit is ideal for our needs.

    He’s had looked great at times but obviously had some issues too, but to me he’s right at that age whereD men really start to figure out the NHL game and is perfect age wise to fit our cluster. It’s also a “buy low” time.

    Thoughts?

    I like him a lot more than I do Gudbranson, but I don’t think he has any real clearance on Klefbom or Marincin, and Nurse could pass him on the depth chart in a year or two as well. If we’re going to add a LD, I would like it to be an established guy who can play along side Fayne in a defensive shut-down role. Even if we add Cowen, we would still be in need of that player.

    Gudbranson was taken higher in his draft, but Cowen was the better prospect, and Gudbranson has never surpassed him IMO. And despite being older, I see Cowen developing his game more going forward.

  80. McJesus_Saves says:

    Relax, LT. This is the summer of captastrophe around the league. There are good players coming out of Chicago (and elsewhere) and I’d bet a couple of quatloos that Seabrooke is one of them for the right price. The Oilers could cough up Marincin and another minor (but respectable) piece and come out miles ahead. That being said, one of Nikitin and Schultz has to go and in my book you don’t give up early on young defencemen. Never forget that Eakins was a massive massive mistake because he set back a bunch of players at least a year of development. To me, Davidson is a sleeper who might make some waves (ie reach higher than 5-6-7 spot).

    This might be the year to give up one of Hall, Eberle, or Yakupov as part of a package for a true number one defender. TRUE #1, not just any old Phaneuf. Skilled wingers are a dime a dozen and Hall may never learn to use his size to full effect – I’m saying we and everyone else know what Hall and Eberle bring, and it’s good but not perfect. This team is built wrong and Chiarelli needs to get the back end sorted, even at a cost. The goalie should be a guy with some experience playing for a team that gives up shots – like Anderson from Ottawa. No more snagging goalies who put up great numbers on defensive powerhouses. Lets face it, the Oilers will not be defensively above average for quite some time to come (read two seasons).

  81. Rational Zealot says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Rational Zealot,

    What isn’t Gudbranson good at aside from putting up points?
    He’s a menace in his own end for the opposition, great on the PK,and makes a solid first pass.

    All those are things that have no independent value. “Menace” is a word without meaning. Does being menacing prevent shots? Maybe. But if it does it will show up in the shot data. Does making a solid first pass have value? Obviously, but again if it is true (rather than assumed) it will show up in the shot data.

    Gudbranson is actually better than I thought. He has a 50% Fenwick while playing against average opposition and with average teammates, with 42% zone starts. That’s reasonable.

    Ekholm, by contrast, has 56% Fenwick, with similar teammates, identical opposition, and 55% zone starts.

    Those are things that matter. You don’t get to count menace twice. It’s not an intangible, it’s already there in the numbers.

    Incidentally, Mark Staal doesn’t come up as good as I expected , 47% Fenwick, 44% zone starts, with better teammates than either Ekholm or Gudbrandson. Opposition, once again, doesn’t matter. (This is almost universally true for defenseman that play a lot. They play against everybody so it all washes out.)

    Finally, Nikitin’s numbers are better than we realize. Buying him out is crazy talk. Eyeballing it, based on the Fenwick numbers I’d put them in this order:

    Marincin (a clear #1, positive relative Fenwick while starting more often in the defensive zone. Trading him is folly)

    Klefbom (similar numbers to Schultz, gets the zone start push but less of one)
    Fayne (same zone starts as Ference, better numbers)
    Nikitin (49% Fenwick with only slight offensive advantage)
    Schultz (positive Fenwick but also zone start push, that said shot metrics undervalue guys who bring points so he is better than what the numbers say).
    Ference
    Aulie (he’s the worst by a mile)

  82. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    In this case yes. It’s about the psychology of the GM and the perception of the move in the event a deal doesn’t get done.

    If the GM moves a pick, fails to secure the player, and then the player accepts a deal somewhere else for only marginally more than what the GM offered, he’s got egg on his face.

    GM’s don’t want to look stupid, so they are more inclined to get a deal done if they’ve already sunk a pick. It’s not a good idea, it’s a “sunk cost” kind of move that should be avoided, but I would agree with Jaxon that it definitely happens all the same.

    Pcot,

    Interesting. I’d really like someone to break it down on Franson and provide a clear answer as to how Franson was used and his relative effectiveness over the past 3 years. As of now I’m in the camp that at Petry money we will end up regretting the signing. I could be convinced otherwise.

  83. stevezie says:

    I agree that it makes more sense to accept that a solution isn’t there than to pay franson as if he is one.

    I think Martin or erhoff are old enough that they would consder low term in exchange for an overpay of dollar. Considering the age of nurse, Schultz, marinicin, and klefbom a stopgap would be a valuable thing.

    Short term overpays don’t kill you.

  84. misfit says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Jason Smith was a first round pick that fell out of favour in New Jersey and then Toronto before moving on to Captain the Oilers.
    Erik Gudbranson was a first round pick that many people are souring on that could move on to Edmonton to…

    That’s a strange correlation to be making.

    Cam Barker was a 1st round pick who fell out of favour in Chicago and then Minnesota.
    Boris Valbik was a 1st round pick that fell out of favour in Atlanta and then Boston.
    Mark Fistric was a 1st round pick that fell out of favour in Dallas and then Edmonton.
    Ryan Parent was a 1st round pick that fell out of favour in Philly and then Vancouver (via Nashville)
    Colten Teubert was a 1st round pick that fell out of favour in LA and then Edmonton.
    Keaton Ellerby was a 1st round pick that fell out of favour in Florida and then LA.

    …all Jason Smiths, I guess.

  85. godot10 says:

    McJesus_Saves,

    Hey…a poster who wants to see McDavid tortured and crucified for the poster’s pleasure (i.e. being saved).

    What a way to welcome McDavid to town. To advocate he be tortured.

  86. gd says:

    raventalon40,

    I think Chara might be the least bad of the options we have to get a top 4 Dman this offseason. A three year overpay for someone like him seems better than overpaying Franson for 5 years. He can still move the puck, elite shot, and would be the perfect captain for the next couple of years, then he comes off the books at the same time as Connor’s entry level deal.

    If we are looking for this generation’s Jason Smith, doesn’t Ryan Murphy fit the bill? Is he not a three year younger (thus cheaper) version of Schultz who needs a fresh start somewhere, but has the skillset that is valuable in today’s game.

  87. PeOiler says:

    sumaclab,

    “Who do you billet MDavid with this fall?”

    Ryan Smyth of course.

  88. Jaxon says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Yes, because their incentive to not go to unrestricted status and see what they can get on the open market is nil. However, as the GM, you’ve given up an asset, any asset, just to talk to them. Maybe some see that as, “this team really wants me, yay, it’s nice to feel wanted.’ but after that cushy feeling goes away you still know that they have to pay what you think the most you’ll get on the open market will be. Nikitin probably would have came to Edmonton for less money if they simply bid when he was on the open market.

    I think most agents would say, “Pay him. No? Well, you gave up an asset to talk to me, now pay him as much as he *might* get on the open market or we go on the open market. Still no? Okay, call me once the UFA window opens. Bye.”

    I would save that kind of tactic for maybe a Chara in his prime that you intend on throwing the bank at anyway, but not a Nikitin who never had a prime.

  89. Rational Zealot says:

    If you want to find the value guy go to stats.hockeyanalysis.com and pull up the Fenwick numbers for a team. This will control for the quality of the team. Then filter out guys who didn’t play enough and then rank the D by defensive zone starts. Because zone starts has a linear relationship with shots you can then go to the Fenwick numbers and look for outliers. Most guys won’t stand out. That’s because there isn’t that big a difference between NHL players. You don’t want them anyway.

    Go get the guys who stand out in the positive way, avoid the guys on the other end.

    It’s that simple.

    Ehrhoff is a guy to avoid. Worst Fenwick on the team with positive offensive zone starts. Martin’s numbers, on the other hand, stand out in a good way. But it’s only one year. They don’t stand out two years ago. I’d want a less up and down record unless I was getting a great deal.

    Likewise, the guys that stand out in a good way in Chicago are Keith and Hjalmarson. They drive the bus not Seabrook.

  90. godot10 says:

    There is now a 5 day feeling out period before July 1. It is foolish to trade a pick to talk to a player that you can talk too giving up nothing on June 26th.

  91. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    godot10,

    It also may let you see who else is interested and competing with you. If you’re the only one talking to a Nikitin, probably safe to say that 4.5 is well above what you need to pay.

  92. thejonrmcleod says:

    wheatnoil,

    Here’s the link on Mike Reilly (unsigned Columbus draft pick). Looks like the Oilers aren’t the favourites to sign him.

    http://www.startribune.com/mike-reilly-to-meet-with-prospective-nhl-teams-in-buffalo-this-week/305992731/

  93. Wolfie says:

    Pouzar: I gotta think Buff is headed straight to FA. It’s his last big contract and some team will give it to him. I would be mildly surprised if he resigns in WPG.

    I honestly think Buff would take a hometown discount to stay in Winnipeg. It’s super close to home for him. The only other place I can see him going to is Minnesota.

  94. Wolfie says:

    I think the Jets are an excellent match for the Oilers trade wise. With Myers, Trouba and Byfuglien all on the right side they have a wealth of talent. Byfuglien is the only one of those 3 that I could see shake free although Jets management is loathe to trade roster players and very loyal to those in the org. Look at how long it took them to move Kane.

    They have other guys on the blueline that are perhaps with a look. Harrison, Chiarot, Postma, Clitsome, Enstrom and Pardy. I think some of those guys could be had and would immediately help out.

  95. Kmart99 says:

    I’m convinced Phaneuf will be an oiler next season. His contract makes him nearly impossible to trade, but he fits the Chiarelli vision and he’d be our best d man instantly.

    How unreasonable would it be to expect Tdot to retain salary?

  96. leadfarmer says:

    misfit,

    But he did play hard minutes as a 23 year old this last year at least. Don’t think he is worth what you will have to give up for him but he will carve out a much better career for himself than the guys you listed.

  97. Optimism is like heroin says:

    there are some things that can be done to help our situation with our current roster. On the UFA market there are more forward options then defenseman or good bets in goal.

    what would you think about from ottawa cowan and anderson for purcell and 2016 1st
    this helps ottawa as they will save 2 years on andersons contract, get some scoring help and add to thier prospect pool

    and then look at moving eberle and marincin for jones in nashville
    helps nashville with a replacement young def as well as adding a clutch goal scorer which they need badly

    these moves would fill the 3 needed spots and get us an extra 3 mil in cap space

    thoughts?

  98. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Optimism is like heroin,

    Cowan has negative value, so let’s say Cowan and Purcell cancel each other out (or thereabouts).

    So that’s Anderson for a 2016 first. Remember that there are 3 lottery tickets in 2016, and the Oilers are unlikely to make the playoffs. So that’s 3 kicks at the 1/2/3 overall can, so to speak, and/or let’s say the 10th overall selection.

    That’s a big price to pay for Anderson, and I say that as a big Anderson fan. I think our 2nd from this year and a mid tier prospect (Pitlick, Khaira, Moroz) gets it done.

  99. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Perhaps the guy the Oilers should target from Florida is actually Nuge’s ex Rebel teammate and Edmonton born, Alex Petrovic. He is a right shot D, that is rugged, has mobility and can play. He was an AHL all star this past season and won’t cost as much to acquire as Gudbranson would.

  100. stush18 says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    there are some things that can be done to help our situation with our current roster.On the UFA market there are more forward options then defenseman or good bets in goal.

    what would you think about from ottawa cowan and anderson for purcell and 2016 1st
    this helps ottawa as they will save 2 years on andersons contract, get some scoring help and add to thier prospect pool

    and then look at moving eberle and marincin for jones in nashville
    helps nashville with a replacement young def as well as adding a clutch goal scorer which they need badly

    these moves would fill the 3 needed spots and get us an extra 3 mil in cap space

    thoughts?

    Our right wing depth just went from ebs-yak-purcell to nothing-yak-nothing.

    Also nashville needs a centreman. they have elite wingers in forsberg and neal

  101. stush18 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Perhaps the guy the Oilers should target from Florida is actually Nuge’s ex Rebel teammate and Edmonton born, Alex Petrovic. He is a right shot D, that is rugged, has mobility and can play. He was an AHL all star this past season and won’t cost as much to acquire as Gudbranson would.

    I think he would cost more to obtain. He is one of there best prospects.

    I think gudbranson is the playerflorida would be willing to move, although he is one of the most experienced D on that team, so maybe they want to get immediately better.

  102. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    3 years of a mentally tough goalie on a reasonable contract with very good numbers. I doubt that will be cheap.

    stush18,

    and i personally would not mind if the RW depth goes ebs/yak/purcell to McDavid/Yak/FA(frolik)

  103. OilLeak says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Rational Zealot,

    What isn’t Gudbranson good at aside from putting up points?
    He’s a menace in his own end for the opposition, great on the PK,and makes a solid first pass.

    The better question is, what is Gudbranson good at? His hero chart is unimpressive, he’s a shutdown defenseman that shoots a lot but produces no offense, plus he’s terrible at shot suppression. He’s a 3rd pairing defenseman and a not very good one at that. PASS

  104. misfit says:

    godot10:
    There is now a 5 day feeling out period before July 1. It is foolish to trade a pick to talk to a player that you can talk too giving up nothing on June 26th.

    Since the idea is to trade for exclusive negotiating rights, I would have to imagine it would be prior to the 5 day negotiation window.

    Still not in favour of it though, at least not in the case of Franson.

  105. Lowetide says:

    misfit: Since the idea is to trade for exclusive negotiating rights, I would have to imagine it would be prior to the 5 day negotiation window.

    Still not in favour of it though, at least not in the case of Franson.

    Yes. Clearly you would trade for the right to talk to him before the window opens. Like, now.

  106. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Optimism is like heroin,

    Not many buyers in the goalie market

    Not many are looking to buy a 34 year old

    Ottawa has an internal cap and he’s the most expensive goalie

    They have 3 guys on 1 way deals and a fourth who likely expects to see a little NHL ice, and definetely expects not to be fourth on the depth chart (by all reports they promised to trade somebody if he signed there).

    I’m not saying cheap, I’m saying 33rd overall in a deep draft for an older goalie prospect. I like the guy but with the new lottery format and the Oilers history I think you could get a kings ransom for that first round pick.

  107. Dennis L says:

    Rational Zealot:
    If you want to find the value guy… look for outliers. Most guys won’t stand out… You don’t want them anyway.

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Perhaps the guy the Oilers should target from Florida is actually Nuge’s ex Rebel teammate and Edmonton born, Alex Petrovic. He is a right shot D, that is rugged, has mobility and can play. He was an AHL all star this past season and won’t cost as much to acquire as Gudbranson would.

    Not to be a wet blanket, but do we really need to shoot the moon on D? Not “do we want to” – yes, of course; but “do we truly need to”. If we can do it for a reasonable cost, ok, I’m on board. My mid-tier kingdom for a Pronger! But I’m not sure its very likely. The outliers will cost us dearly.

    Think of it this way: our D group is bottom tier, with some potential in our younger guys. We don’t necessarily need to shoot the moon and bring in one of the best 10 or 15 D men in the league, for example, and pay dearly for him. Bringing in a #4 guy, and/or a younger, AHL-ripe but NHL-unproven guy (Bucket’s suggestion) that can turn into a top 4 man might just be the better, and likely more affordable, way to go. And the returning D would likely be much closer to the cluster age group.

    Gradual improvement on D, aligned to the age of the talent cluster, fits better with the “see how the new coach and the new superstar mesh with the team that is one year older” strategy that this year might be guided by, doesn’t it?

    Even league average D next season — average defence by committee — would be a tremendous improvement.

  108. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    ok colour me convinced and use this years second in that idea
    it brings in cowan a kid (23) on a 3.1 for 3 more year contract with size
    and a goalie that can win games and help change the losing mentality around here
    for
    a good pick (2nd) and prospect
    versatile scoring help that has a history of doing well in the east in purcell
    and helps ottawa by only paying a year for purcell before renegotiation vs 3 years of anderson

  109. OilLeak says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    ok colour me convinced and use this years second in that idea
    it brings in cowan a kid (23) on a 3.1 for 3 more year contract with size
    and a goalie that can win games and help change the losing mentality around here
    for
    a good pick (2nd) and prospect
    versatile scoring help that has a history of doing well in the east in purcell
    and helps ottawa by only paying a year for purcell before renegotiation vs 3 years of anderson

    So first people are suggesting to trade for Gudbranson now Cowen? Holy hell the D market must be weak. All this talk of size on the blog today, but players with size still need to be able to play! Cowen is awful, the Sens would be thrilled to get rid of him and his contract. 3rd pairing is Cowen’s outer mark. Nope

  110. Lowetide says:

    OilLeak: So first people are suggesting to trade for Gudbranson now Cowen?Holy hell the D market must be weak. All this talk of size on the blog today, but players with size still need to be able to play! Cowen is awful, the Sens would be thrilled to get rid of him and his contract. 3rd pairing is Cowen’s outer mark. Nope

    It’s absolutely insane to trade for Cowen unless there’s something good with it and the entire package is free. Big is fine, but the player has to be able to help with hockey.

  111. Optimism is like heroin says:

    OilLeak,

    I don’t think cowan is as bad as that. He is young and has missed alot of development time after being rushed to the nhl. He was also facing the toughest competition this year and was over his head but could be a very good candidate for buying while the price is low.
    45.8% zone start ….. toughest comp on team and only a -3 on his corsi

  112. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    The idea is packaged with Anderson, and taking back an over priced contract. In this case Purcell, preferably Nikitin.

    It’s:

    Anderson for a Second rounder
    Cowan for Purcell/Nikitin

    Can’t decide how I feel about it, but that’s the idea. I probably like Anderson more than most.

  113. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,
    Do you think the Oilers are better off swinging for a Seabrook / Franson / Sekera home run this summer while parting with significant assets / term / dollars or are they better off playing small ball and target a younger D with warts or an AHL ripe prospect and hope McLelland can parlay that into something useful?

  114. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    LT,
    Do you think the Oilers are better off swinging for a Seabrook / Franson / Sekera home run this summer while parting with significant assets / term / dollars or are they better off playing small ball and target a younger D with warts oran AHL ripe prospect and hope McLelland can parlay that into something useful?

    I think Chiarelli should lay in the weeds and wait for the next Leddy/Boychuk. Having said that check with me in an hour and I’ll be pissed he hasn’t done anything yet.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Lowetide,

    The idea is packaged with Anderson, and taking back an over priced contract.In this case Purcell, preferably Nikitin.

    It’s:

    Anderson for a Second rounder
    Cowan for Purcell/Nikitin

    Can’t decide how I feel about it, but that’s the idea.I probably like Anderson more than most.

    Travis Yost proposed a deal to me weeks ago on the Lowdown: Anderson and Cowen for a second-round pick and Martin Marincin. I said no. But you can see the appeal alright.

  116. Wolfie says:

    If Pittsburgh is still looking to obtain a 1st round pick. Is Letang still an option? I know it was discussed at some points this year. What would a deal look like?

  117. ACalgaryOilFan says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    OilLeak,

    I don’t think cowan is as bad as that.He is young and has missed alot of development time after being rushed to the nhl.He was also facing the toughest competition this year and was over his head but could be a very good candidate for buying while the price is low.
    45.8% zone start ….. toughest comp on team and only a -3 on his corsi

    I was curious about Cowen as well as he seems to be good opportunity to poach a young underdeveloped defenseman. Just some interesting context from the Sens version of Copper n Blue

    From a Sens Fan perspective not very glowing reviews

    http://www.silversevensens.com/2015/5/20/8558873/your-say-jared-cowen

    I wonder if Patrick Wiercioch would be available, I seem to recall the Sens had soured on him but he came on strong at the end of the year. Seems like Petry replacement

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=102405

  118. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!
    As painful as our defense is, most of that pain today is because we thought we needed to solve the problem yesterday.

    Patience is a tough message when A) you’re surrounded by a livid sea of burning pitchforks, and B) it’s legitimately more likely that Taylor Hall walks because of body language than soon winning the gold card to rule them all.

    Plus you have to project your voice over the hydraulic post pounders erecting the many billboards on the edge of town (more cranes and fervid construction than the new arena district) and the gaseous hiss of boiling tree sap. As I recall it, our preoccupation with the then-present pall rivalled the intensity of a break-out year in James Watt’s steam engine laboratory.

    Of course, you’re completely right. No time like the present to take a balanced view.

  119. wheatnoil says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Thanks!

  120. v4ance says:

    gd,

    The official cap number is up for negotiation between the NHL and the PA and is usually settled by the last week of June. Last year, it was set around the 29th.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-no-last-stand-for-blackhawks/

    “That other NHLPA get-together, a Board meeting beginning Monday, is pretty important. Players are tight-lipped, because this will feature discussion about the “growth factor.” They have the right to increase the cap by five per cent, which they have done every time but one since 2005. The problem is, that growth increases escrow, which saw an average of 15 percent removed from each paycheque last season. They are torn, tired of that number being withheld, understanding that a lower cap hurts free-agency and job security. Earlier this season, amidst rumours the players would reject their option, the league hinted it had the power to do it anyway.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/broadcast-deal-hurting-nhl-as-canadian-dollar-declines/article24040463/

    The contract with Rogers is paid in Canadian dollars, which sharply declined in value against the U.S. dollar after the deal was announced on Nov. 26, 2013.

    The decline in the Rogers contract’s value forced a re-evaluation by the league. Back in December, the NHL was suggesting the cap might rise to $73-million (U.S.) for the 2015-16 season, based on the expectation of an 88-cent Canadian dollar for the rest of this season and growth in HRR of about 4.5 per cent to more than $3.8-billion (U.S.). By March, the league revised its cap projection to $71.7-million based on an 82-cent dollar.

    If the players do not exercise the escalator, as is now expected, next season’s salary cap would be $68.1-million (U.S.) based on the NHL’s projections in March, which counted on the Canadian dollar staying at 80 cents.

    Last season, the players lost 12 per cent of their annual salaries thanks to the shrinking Canuck buck. This season, they have already had 14 per cent of their wages withheld in escrow through the first half of the season, according to The New York Post, and that amount climbed to 16 per cent in the third quarter of the season.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/friedman-cap-inflation-not-just-players/

    “The relevant paragraph can be found on Page 258 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA. It is section 50.5(b)(i).

    The first paragraph following section (i) talks about how the amount will be increased each year by five per cent “unless or until either party to this Agreement proposes a different growth factor based on actual revenue experience and/or projections, in which case the parties shall discuss and agree upon a new factor.” ”

    So to summarize, the NHL WANTS to increase the cap because so many teams are against the cap ceiling. The PA WANTS to keep the cap steady or decreased so the escrow is stabilized or decreased. They are negotiating right now but the NHL believes it retains the right to add the 5% cap inflator if the parties can’t come to a mutually agreed upon number based on the verbage in the CBA.

    So the range for the cap is now $68.1 million (no cap inflator) to $71 million (5% inflator) for next season based on the current 80 cent Canadian dollar and it’ll be negotiated or forced through by the NHL depending on what the PA decided earlier this week.

    No matter what, many teams will be in cap hell very very soon…

  121. OilLeak says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    OilLeak,

    I don’t think cowan is as bad as that.He is young and has missed alot of development time after being rushed to the nhl.He was also facing the toughest competition this year and was over his head but could be a very good candidate for buying while the price is low.
    45.8% zone start ….. toughest comp on team and only a -3 on his corsi

    The comp numbers are pretty much identical for everyone on D, not much separation. Not much line matching. Cowen had -6.5 CorsiRel (5th best D on the team). regular season TOI suggest 4/5 D for Ottawa although he was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

  122. wheatnoil says:

    v4ance,

    Thanks for that summary.

    A low cap helps the Oilers, despite the large contracts on their roster (Ference, Nikitin, Schultz, Purcell). They do have room to make one addition and a low cap decreases the number of teams that can do even that.

    Further, I wonder if a mid-range UFA might take short-term contract this summer in order to hit UFA again in a year or two at a time when the cap presumably goes up and try to get a bigger pay day then. Short-term contracts are also quite attractive for the Oilers right now, given Nurse and Klefbom (and Marincin) coming up as well as the McDavid ELC situation.

  123. stush18 says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    3 years of a mentally tough goalie on a reasonable contract with very good numbers.I doubt that will be cheap.

    stush18,

    and i personally would not mind if the RW depth goes ebs/yak/purcell to McDavid/Yak/FA(frolik)

    That would be one of the most inexperienced right wing groups in the nhl. I actually cant think of one with less experience. Not to mention we now have two right-handed players on our team left, gordon and fayne.

    Mcdavid will not be ready for top line minutes in his first nhl season. I am calling it.

  124. wheatnoil says:

    Bettman says any team that already gave up a draft pick to hire a coach/executive who was fired will not get it back.— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) June 3, 2015

    Only Lou gets picks back.

  125. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Just doing a cursory glance at NHL Numbers and there are only 7 teams with more cap then us. Now naturally this is before RFAs and UFAs so that can change drastically but as of right now only the Coyotes, Sabres, Flames, Predators, Devils, Capitals and Jets have more room. It gives us a slight advantage since we know half of those teams aren’t going to go to the cap this upcoming year, either due to competitiveness or due to an internal budget.

    “Bettman says any team that already gave up a draft pick to hire a coach/executive who was fired will not get it back.— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) June 3, 2015”

    Think we can argue that we haven’t given up the pick yet? We only owe it, haven’t given them anything as of yet…

  126. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: McJesus_Saves,
    Hey…a poster who wants to see McDavid tortured and crucified for the poster’s pleasure (i.e. being saved).
    What a way to welcome McDavid to town. To advocate he be tortured.

    It was possibly a little inappropriate of Eakins to coin that nickname.

  127. lawrenharris says:

    Sorry to butt in, but I’d really like to know, after reading a couple of weeks worth of posts on the goalie outlook, why it is that Bachman is scarcely mentioned. Does he have cooties? Does he have “career minor leaguer” branded on his forehead?

  128. Gerta Rauss says:

    Way late to the party, a couple of things:

    -MacT didn’t trade for Nikitin’s rights, he was given permission to talk to Nikitin within a 48 hour window, and only after a contract was signed did he have to give CBJ the draft pick. A minor distinction yes,but that was the agreement.

    -I was a big advocate of trading for players rights before they introduced the UFA shopping periond,now, not so much.

    -I’d pass on Franson, that’s a poor bet imo.

    -I see this as a trading summer, the UFA pool was very shallow to start with, and it looks like the best of the bunch won’t even make it to July 1.

    I’ve still got a man crush on Braydon Coburn, and think Tampa Bay might be a good fit for a goalie as well.

    I don’t know if TB would move Vasilevskiy(or Coburn for that matter) but I’d like to see something like Coburn and Vasilevskiy for 16 and Marincin. I’d prefer 16 and Schultz, but I’m assuming TB wants a little cap space from this deal.

  129. kooler says:

    THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION

    Not that Mcdavid would ever be traded……what would he be worth to Buffalo? Eichel, 21st, 31st, Zarodov and Ristolainen? 2016 first round possibly?

    Philli gave up 2 Stanley cups for Lindros and some cash.

    Thought I saw Eakins driving around Vancouver a couple weeks ago…Giants maybe?

  130. kooler says:

    Then turn around and trade our 16th and 33rd for Phili’s 7th and voilà…..Ivan Provorov

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca