5.15

We’re a few short weeks from the lottery and yet so much has changed. The Oilers have added Peter Chiarelli, Todd McLellan and traded in the No. 3 pick for a rocket out of the second division. Incredible. Peter Chiarelli spoke to TSN1200 radio in Ottawa this week and talked about his experience over the last month or so.

  • Chiarelli: “It was a bit of a whirlwind getting fired and then hired in a short period of time, there’s been a lot of trips back and forth between Boston and Edmonton. Really for me a lot of the first steps are meeting with the personalities and the people within hockey ops. Starting with the coaches, through to the management, the scouts, the locker room guys, medical, training staff, and all of the business people. So I got a lot of those meetings done.”

It’s funny, but Edmonton’s system of doing things has had very little outside influence over the years. Larry Gordon to Glen Sather to Kevin Lowe to Craig MacTavish—that’s the same tree. Steve Tambellini did come in, and credit to him, the AHL team started to build back from nothing, but there’s probably a lot of upgrading and streamlining to be done.

  • Chiarelli: “We hired a coach in Todd McLellan, that was kind of my first order of business. I was able to get over to Prague and have an intensive interview with him while he was at the WHC’s and subsequently hired him. Now it’s kind of trying to get to know the staff and assess at the same time. We’re in Buffalo today, all week, interviewing kids (for the draft). At the same time we’re going through roster assessment and preparation for our pro scouting meetings. I’m right in the midst of day to day stuff and at the same time assessing people and trying to figure out how we should either maintain or restructure the hockey ops side of things. It’s exciting, some exciting times in Edmonton.”

It sounds like we’ll see the changes after the draft and before the fall. My guess is assistant coaches and scouts are areas we’ll see some movement, with Todd Nelson probably the first shoe to drop. The Bruins will likely begin sending people down the chute later in summer, that might trigger Edmonton transactions as Chiarelli (no doubt) brings in his people or those who he believes can do the job.

  • Chiarelli: “I would look at moving (No. 16) there’s going to be a really good player, we’ve had discussions with teams about moving it. We want to look at players who are young to middle age that can grow with what we’re trying to build here.” Source

We’ve heard this before, still encouraging. If you could acquire a young defenseman who could step right in, Edmonton could fast track that selection a little. We talked about it when Jim Rutherford suggested the Penguins might want to grab a first-round pick (Maatta, Pouliot) and maybe something along those lines comes through. I think we see action at No. 16 or No. 33 overall. By the way, in case this comes up, Boston selects No. 14, No. 37 and No. 75—it’s always a good idea to know that stuff on draft day. Chiarelli may be looking for a Bruins roster player and those two teams are worth watching come draft day.

I’d like to see Craig Anderson here, Lehner’s concussion issues are a real concern from here. The top-six forward return offers its own challenges for Edmonton: They have six stunning futures (Hall, Pouliot, Nuge, Eberle, Yakupov, McDavid on the way) but no one to spare, at least not for Anderson or Lehner. Sticky wicket, as they say. If Chiarelli can get creative, Anderson would be a really nice get.

roy capture

 

  • Philly.com: Pryor believes that after the first two picks, the third through 12th selections are “pretty close” in talent. Source

Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor expressed what we’ve heard in a few areas. It seems there’s a gap from 1 to 2, and then a large group of 10 that will be quickly taken off the board. If we can correctly identify the ’10’ it’ll help us in estimating the range of player available at No. 16.

  • First group of two: McDavid, Eichel
  • Second group of ten: Marner, Hanifin, Strome, Provorov, Zacha, Rantanen, Werenski, Barzal, Crouse, Connor
  • Possibly available at No. 16: Nick Merkley, Timo Meier, Evgeni Svechnikov
  • Probably available at No. 16: Jeremy Roy, Travis Konecny, Jakub Zboril, Jansen Harkins, Thomas Chabot, Oliver Kylington, Anthony Beauvillier.

It’s probably even money that Edmonton makes a pick at No. 16 but there’s not a bad option there. I doubt any of the players listed here will still be on the table at No. 33, although Beauvillier may be undervalued by NHL teams.

nico

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. NHL and NBA playoffs, suspect we’ll talk Jeff Petry.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. Senators have a goalie, Oilers have a need. Travis suggested on the Lowdown several weeks ago that Bryan Murray might tie a goalie to a bad contract, and Murray said just that recently. Since Yost can read the future, we’ll try to pin down the exact deal.
  • Sean Fleming, U17 Canadian men’s soccer coach. We’ll talk about the Women’s World Cup, about the focus required and how a coaching staff prepares for the ultimate competition.
  • Paul Almeida SSE. The SSE mock draft (1-16) goes Saturday, we’ll talk about some of the guests who’ll be making the picks on Saturday.
  • Dan Tencer, Saskatoon Blades. Dan is a very well known broadcaster in Edmonton, as well as being a scout for the Saskatoon Blades. We’ll talk about both this morning.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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139 Responses to "5.15"

  1. sumaclab says:

    It will be a circus at the draft. With McDavid in the fold the Oilers will be loaded for bear.Honestly anything after Mcdavid is a freaking bonus.PC comes home with a goalie and a top 4 dman and I’ll be doing a little dance. This draft has the potential to be epic for the Oilers. With the roster at FWD almost set the needs on defence and at Goalie are PC’s top prority. After McDavid is chosen the other 9 picks and the 2016 picks are all on the table to get and bring home a goalie and dman.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    Sure Murray can hope for a top 6 forward. He’s not going to get it. Not in this goalie market.

  3. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    If the oilers wind up trading away the pick that lands a cost-controlled, top talent for, say, Girardi, I will be pissed. I hope any trade comes only if and when the Oilers know who is still on the board at 16 and get overpayment for the pick

  4. dustrock says:

    I wonder, if the Oilers are taking the #16 & 33 picks, if getting McDavid, and the all-powerful ELC, are going to force them to look at more NHL ready players.

    Players like, yes, Crouse. Mac T already had to do this to an extent last year with Draisaitl (“he’s our 2C for sure!!!”) and I’m wondering if there’s additional pressure now.

    It seems to me that the hardcore fans, on here, HFB, etc, would mostly want skilled players through the draft, and your “average” Oilers fan probably isn’t concerned about much beyond McDavid.

  5. linkfromhyrule says:

    It’s such a foreign feeling to hear things like this from the Oilers org. Chiarelli seems to have a plan, and a real idea of how to implement it. This has been/will be the “Summer of George!!!” er.. “Summer of Peter?”

    The best managers do not micromanage, because they can trust the people they place in positions underneath them. It will be interesting to see how Chia handles this situation, as he has not hired anyone in the org. outside of Todd McLellan.

    Does anyone in the first round of this draft actually project to be similar to those nightmare Oiler picks in the 2003 draft? Not that I can see Chia falling into that pitfall… Please just avoid anyone with footspeed or mobility issues and more size than skill.

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    I like Pouliot and he’s a corsi monster, but if Ottawa is willing to do Anderson for Pouliot (they had interest in him in the off-season), I think you have to consider it. Could be a win win for both sides.

  7. zatch says:

    Is there actual smoke on Adam McQuiad? Why does this team think low end Boston D are somehow the answer STILL?

  8. leadfarmer says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I like Anderson. No way he gets you Pouliot.

  9. Racki says:

    Teddy Purcell with half salary retained and a higher pick? Wishful thinking I guess, but they’re not going to get a stellar top six guy for a goalie either. Or not likely to.

  10. knighttown says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sure Murray can hope for a top 6 forward.He’s not going to get it.Not in this goalie market.

    Agreed, at least not directly. He needs to get whatever he can get from Edmonton. Goalie currency is only being traded by a couple of teams so he should be getting what he can from Edmonton in the form of a more liquid type of currency; specifically a draft pick. Say he gets a late second.

    He now has a late second to offer someone (plus cap relief) for this top 6 forward and that’s much easier to do. Matt Beleskey maybe?

  11. John Chambers says:

    dustrock,

    I’d be pretty happy drafting Crouse, even if they traded up a few spots to get him.

    This isn’t JF Jacques – Crouse was a good player for Canada at the WJ’s in his draft year.

    I don’t see why adding a big Bob Gainey type of player wouldn’t be the perfect compliment for our run and gun forwards.

  12. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    If the oilers wind up trading away the pick that lands a cost-controlled, top talent for, say, Girardi, I will be pissed. I hope any trade comes only if and when the Oilers know who is still on the board at 16 and get overpayment for the pick

    I’m not worred as much about that (Giardi or similar) given Chia’s verbal about “young player who can grow with the team……or “middle aged” which in the NHL is 26/27.

    I’m concerned that his OTT connection might have him look hard at a Lehner/Cowen deal.

    Cowen is below NHL replacement in results and has two more years at $3.1MM then RFA, but is famous and Lehner is coming off two dismal years and whether or not he can regain his rookie form is unknown to everyone.

  13. John Chambers says:

    zatch,

    At under $2.5M per season for 2-3 years I like McQuaid. I see no problem with adding veteran depth players, especially if middling talents like Franson are going to cost you $5.5M.

    At worst the contract would be moveable if some of our younger players can end up making the jump.

  14. dustrock says:

    John Chambers:
    dustrock,

    I’d be pretty happy drafting Crouse, even if they traded up a few spots to get him.

    This isn’t JF Jacques – Crouse was a good player for Canada at the WJ’s in his draft year.

    I don’t see why adding a big Bob Gainey type of player wouldn’t be the perfect compliment for our run and gun forwards.

    I like Crouse a lot, especially at 17. Just don’t know if he’s worth moving the 16 & 33 to move up.

    Provorov or Werenski though?

  15. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy: I’m not worred as much about that (Giardi or similar) given Chia’s verbal about “young player who can grow with the team……or “middle aged” which in the NHL is 26/27.

    I’m concerned that his OTT connection might have him look hard at a Lehner/Cowen deal.

    Cowen is below NHL replacement in results and has two more years at $3.1MM then RFA, but is famous and Lehner is coming off two dismal years and whether or not he can regain his rookie form is unknown to everyone.

    It’s okay WG, Tambellini no longer runs the team.

  16. dustrock says:

    Somehow my phone corrects 16 to 17

  17. John Chambers says:

    dustrock: I like Crouse a lot,especially at 17. Just don’t know if he’s worth moving the 16 &33 to move up.

    Provorov or Werenski though?

    If Crouse was available at 11, say, 16, 57, and ~85 would be a reasonable payment to get him.

  18. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I’m not worred as much about that (Giardi or similar) given Chia’s verbal about “young player who can grow with the team……or “middle aged” which in the NHL is 26/27.

    I’m concerned that his OTT connection might have him look hard at a Lehner/Cowen deal.

    Cowen is below NHL replacement,in results and has two more years at $3.1MM then RFA, but is famous and Lehner is coming off two dismal years and whether or not he can regain his rookie form is unknown to everyone.

    I’d go after Lehner but only as a project. Which means as a backup for now.
    I think a healthy Lehner has some promise to be a good number 1 down the road.

    Still would need a starter.

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    John Chambers:
    dustrock,

    I’d be pretty happy drafting Crouse, even if they traded up a few spots to get him.

    This isn’t JF Jacques – Crouse was a good player for Canada at the WJ’s in his draft year.

    I don’t see why adding a big Bob Gainey type of player wouldn’t be the perfect compliment for our run and gun forwards.

    I’m on board with this line of thinking. Crouse at #5 is out of whack, but #16?

    The point of him playing for Canada in his draft year is an interesting one. I bet if you looked at a list of all such players over the years it would be an impressive one, and not just at the top end.

  20. Hall Awaits says:

    Would a second round pick (MTL’s if possible) and Teddy Purcell at half salary get one of those two goalies? Would that even make sense?

  21. slopitch says:

    Could Purcell be sold as a top 6F? I’d think he’d maybe fetch Lehner. Lehner could be a low risk, give him 40 ahl games type bet. He’d also put a fire under scrivens. Still need a #1. It would also free up cash to maybe get Eriksson or Soderberg or a bit more of a 2way winger.

    Interesting the tiers in picks. 16 is a good spot to be in because players slide. In 2011 Klebom slid and there wasn’t a huge gap on him and 10 (Brodin). In 2012 Teravanen slid. The more I think about it, the more I simply want to keep the pick and move lesser assets and cap space.

  22. slopitch says:

    Because of the tiers there are very few players if package picks to move up. Provorov is one though.

  23. Henry says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sure Murray can hope for a top 6 forward.He’s not going to get it.Not in this goalie market.

    Give him a 3rd and a 5th. Just like he gave us for Hemmer.

  24. Woodguy says:

    I really, really like Jeremy Roy’s IPP.

    His was just under 29% this year, which elite for Dmen.

    Not quite Doughty or Ellis, but better than most and right up there with Eklad and others.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m on board with this line of thinking. Crouse at #5 is out of whack, but #16?

    The point of him playing for Canada in his draft year is an interesting one. I bet if you looked at a list of all such players over the years it would be an impressive one, and not just at the top end.

    Scout I spoke to turned my argument on me. He said:

    1. Where do the two-way forwards start to go in the draft (answer: this year, early teens)
    2. When you’re talking math, do you factor in that he led his team in scoring?
    3. While the WJ’s is overrated, he made the team and played a prominent role while being very successful. Are you SURE this is simply a matter of his maturing before all the other players?
    4. He has significant value to NHL teams, that much is clear (scout I spoke to said he wouldn’t surprised if he goes top 10)

    so the math is the math, has real value. I have him in with the two way forwards now, at No. 17. I think that’s about right.

  26. knighttown says:

    Another night:
    -another 2 to 1 game
    -another game where all the goals were lucky; off broken plays or off a tip, screen etc
    -another game that went long stretches without scoring chances
    -another game with less than 50 total shots on goal by two of the highest scoring teams in the league

    Another game where the stars didn’t matter

    Even strength time on ice; Olympians Stamkos at 14, Sharp at 8 and Hossa at 10.

    Even strength time on ice; nobodies Shaw 12, Desjardins 12, Brown 13 and Killorn 17.

    There is a seismic shift happening among the top coaches in the NHL who have realized that, at evens, they have a better (or just as good) chance of winning with JT Brown as they do with Steven Stamkos. Desjardins more than Hossa or Sharp.

    Safe is Life and the line between high skill and high risk has become blurred. It’s not what you get it’s what you leave.

    I’ve been yelling from the rooftops that the biggest risk to the Oilers achieving their destiny is that they’ve built a team of skilled forwards exactly in the age of the defenseman (and goalie). If 25 year old Stamkos (or Ovechkin) can be controlled easily to the point that the coach sees better options, what chance does an 18 year old McDavid or 21 year old Yakupov have?

    And this isn’t just me. Peter McNabb has spoken about the death of the star and now Elliotte Friedman had it as his lead paragraph in his recent 30 thoughts.

    The league needs to have some serious conversations about whether they want the face of the league to be JT Brown, Anton Stralman and their brilliant coach or Steven Stamkos, Patrick Kane and Connor McDavid.

    I’ll remind everyone; even strength scoring this year;
    Crosby 53
    Ovechkin 47
    Mark Stone 51
    Blake Wheeler 49
    Scott Hartnell 44
    Mike Hoffman 45

    The gap between elite first liners and solid 3rd liners isn’t what it once was and it certainly isn’t what it should be.

  27. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    Ya, it’s probably right. He’s a fine pick in the teens. If we take him at 16 it should be a fine pick.

    How does he compare to a guy like Devante Smith-Pelly? I know Devante is shorter but he’s a freaking tank… is that a realistic comp for Crouse, with hope that the upside is higher?

  28. AsiaOil says:

    Going back to the point I made at the end of the last post – we need to think 3 years down the line when we are just starting to be really competitive – the CMD entry-level deal ends – and cap hell begins before we win anything. At that point there is no way that we can afford to keep Eberle and Hall and all the more important centers and defensemen. In my mind the Hall/Eberle cluster will last two more years and then we need to start trading them for picks and secondary pieces in order to keep CMD, RNH, Drai, Klef and Nurse. Yak is a bit of a wildcard but the same problem effects him.

    So we don’t need to focus on what we need now – we need to think about what we need in 3 years when the CMD deal ends. That’s when we will desperately need guys on entry level deals who can contribute in order to win. So while on one hand it would be nice to trade picks to compete now – it would also be very useful to draft quality and let them develop slowly because those entry level contracts will be extremely useful after the next CMD contract starts. So drafting a winger like Crouse or the big Russian now is not entirely crazy.

  29. wheatnoil says:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=769872

    MacGregor interviewed about the draft.

    “Overall I think it’s a really good draft and you will find good players right into the third round and a few that have potential even beyond that,” MacGregor said. “I think the top end is outstanding; you have some very talented players that are going to be major impacts in the NHL for a long time right through picks No. 20-25.”

    “[Chiarelli] is a man that has a direction and a way he wants to work. He pretty much described the kind of player he’s interested in during his original press conference. He wants players that are hard to play against and win puck battles.”

  30. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: Scout I spoke to turned my argument on me. He said:

    1. Where do the two-way forwards start to go in the draft (answer: this year, early teens)
    2. When you’re talking math, do you factor in that he led his team in scoring?
    3. While the WJ’s is overrated, he made the team and played a prominent role while being very successful. Are you SURE this is simply a matter of his maturing before all the other players?
    4. He has significant value to NHL teams, that much is clear (scout I spoke to said he wouldn’t surprised if he goes top 10)

    so the math is the math, has real value. I have him in with the two way forwards now, at No. 17. I think that’s about right.

    Leading your team in scoring doesn’t seem very forgiving as far as projections go unless your numbers surpass PPG. Leading your team in points usually mean a lot of PP, a lot of toi in general and the best possible linemates. A top prospect should put up good numbers in that situation.
    We just let go of a kid, with two way reputation to boot, who was the leading scorer for his team in his draft year. Jackson Houck.
    He looked ok in the WJCs and making Canadas U20 team at 17 is impressive and he may very well end up an impact NHLer but let’s remember that if he was to become a top NHLer it would be an outlier with his numbers.

  31. wheatnoil says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sure Murray can hope for a top 6 forward.He’s not going to get it.Not in this goalie market.

    I agree with this completely.

    There’s just not that many teams looking for a starting goalie. Into that pool there’s your UFA s (Niemi, Neuvirth, maybe Ramo) who might all be looking for a chance at being a starter. Then there’s young talent who might be ready like Talbot (and maybe Lack if he’s actually available). Then there’s more famous names like Crawford, maybe Miller.

    I maintain, if:
    a) goalies are voodoo
    b) you can’t get Talbot
    c) there’s all these goalies potentially available
    d) there’s not that many teams that need a starter and if some teams make a change for a new starter, that releases another goalie into the market

    …then the plan should be to wait till late July and get a deal for cheap from either UFA that lost the musical chairs game or a team that sees the market closing and needs to deal for cap relief (Chicago) or a log jam (Ottawa) or for strange, unknown reasons (Vancouver).

  32. BrazilianOil says:

    Question: it s possible to trade salary while retain the player?

    For example : 1 milion of purcell s salry + 3 round pick for a 5 round pick.

  33. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BrazilianOil,

    Nope.

  34. Pouzar says:

    I will make a bet right now that if Purcell is traded, ZERO salary will be retained.
    A guess? Winnipeg.

  35. zatch says:

    Sens issue isn’t top 6 forwards, at least not in a net sense. For sure they could likely use a top line guy. They have a top pairing that’s good, then a collection that consists of Weircoch (likely a #5/4 guy) Ceci (#5/6 guy) and then a collection of #6 or depth guys. It’s a mess and it costs them games. And Methot should likey be a 2nd pairing player.

    I live in Ottawa and have had them as a 2nd team since my youth, and I don’t have a ton of faith in Murray.

  36. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers: It’s okay WG, Tambellini no longer runs the team.

    I’m holding my breath until the first trade.

    I have high hopes, but that’s all they are. Hopes.

  37. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    zatch,

    At under $2.5M per season for 2-3 years I like McQuaid. I see no problem with adding veteran depth players, especially if middling talents like Franson are going to cost you $5.5M.

    At worst the contract would be moveable if some of our younger players can end up making the jump.

    Except the Oilers have the bottom of the Dcrops covered twice over.

    They don’t need more 5/6 Dmen and that’s exactly what McQuaid is.

  38. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    zatch,

    Weircoch looked pretty good at the World Championships for Canada, I think you might be underrating him a touch there. You may also be overrating Methot, which people have often done in the past.

  39. slopitch says:

    Its so hard to say at 18 what a guy projects as. Im not a huge fan of pure coke machine picks. Oilers have done a bad job of it every time they’ve tried. Trade and sign size, guys like Pouliot. That being said, Id personally be quite happy with Crouse at 16.

    It will be interesting to follow where Bracco goes at the draft. High end skill and great offensive totals. “He’s just like Tyler Johnson” comparisons will start by whoever drafts him immediately.

  40. nelson88 says:

    knighttown,

    Excellent post. Agree that the pendulum appears to be swinging back too far towards the lemaire Minnesota Wild era.

  41. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: I’m holding my breath until the first trade.

    I have high hopes, but that’s all they are.Hopes.

    Let’s give the man more than one trade. I’m giving him the one whole off-season before I make a sweeping judgement of him! 🙂

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    knighttown,

    Nice rant, though you may have picked the wrong day to focus on JT “Just Terrible” Brown.

  43. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy,

    Indeed, however in a year’s time we’ll be rid of the scourge of Nikitin and with any luck Ference will have been bought out.

    I guess what I’m saying is I’d rather have Bartkowski than Brandon Davidson and would prefer 4 veritable #5 defensemen than paying Cody Franson to carry our mail. Injuries happen, and icing a lineup of Bartkowskis and Mark Faynes can win you regular season games.

    The smart guys use unrestricted free agency to pick up 3rd liners and depth defensemen on the cheap. July 1st is when you go shopping for Kris Russell and Dan Winnik’s.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    I never fail to be amazed by fans who’s plan is to start winning in 2017 or 2018 or 2019.

    Gretzky’s best season was his third season in the league. McDavid will be lighting up this league sooner rather than later.

    For too many reasons, this team HAS to turn North now. And that is a completely achievable goal. They are one bold move for a 1D away.

    New franchise player, new GM, new coach, soon to be new goalie, soon to be new arena. They have a fresh start and all the positivity and momentum that goes with that. You HAVE to capitalize on that NOW.

    Come out of the gates competitive and all of a sudden, the culture change starts to take hold and everyone starts to believe that winning is actually possible. Piss away the present for the promise of a better future and you’re right back to killing your team with a crushing belief that they simply aren’t good enough.

    Chia said the perfect thing: #16 is in play for the right ‘young’ player. In other words, let’s fast track the development while still getting a player on a value contract that fits with the core agewise. In other words, let’s get players to help us win NOW.

    Let’s hope he finds the right partner for a deal.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    zatch: They have a top pairing that’s good, then a collection that consists of Weircoch (likely a #5/4 guy) Ceci (#5/6 guy) and then a collection of #6 or depth guys. It’s a mess and it costs them games.

    Sounds like Oilers, other than the “good top pairing” part.

  46. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    LT: Is Yost joining you later in the show? I tuned in specifically for him… 🙁

    Also, did not know that Tencer was a scout for the Blades.

  47. russ99 says:

    John Chambers:
    dustrock,

    I’d be pretty happy drafting Crouse, even if they traded up a few spots to get him.

    This isn’t JF Jacques – Crouse was a good player for Canada at the WJ’s in his draft year.

    I don’t see why adding a big Bob Gainey type of player wouldn’t be the perfect compliment for our run and gun forwards.

    Because only a handful of those players actually turn into a Bob Gainey type when they lose the physical edge they have playing with their direct age group now.

    If we keep #16 we had better be sure that player can help us in his ELC, considering our upcoming cap crunch.

    Too easy to swing and miss on a big, tough kid currently dominating 18 year olds. Look at Kyle Beach.

    If he’s there at 16, I’ll be OK with it, but trading assets to get him could amplify the risk considerably.

  48. Pouzar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: zatch, Weircoch looked pretty good at the World Championships for Canada, I think you might be underrating him a touch there. You may also be overrating Methot, which people have often done in the past.

    Both get similar offensive zone pushes but Methot plays the toughs and Wiercoch doesn’t.
    Methot is a nice player and we’ll see how Wiercoch is used going forward.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    It’s another sport but consider this: Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season, Joe Montana in his 3rd season.

    Truly elite players arrive good to go. The biggest mistake you can make is waiting too long to build a competitive team around them. The better approach is to widen the window of opportunity as much as possible to compete for as many Cups as possible.

    The good teams are drafting late every year. They have to find ways to procure good prospects in later rounds or outside the draft. The Oil will need to learn to do the same to keep reloading in the cap era.

    ‘Promise’ and ‘potential’ has become the opiate of this fanbase. In reality, potential pales in comparison to a much more important objective – winning.

  50. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Except the Oilers have the bottom of the Dcrops covered twice over.

    That’s what we call depth in these parts.

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Yes a #1 D, and then a #2D, and then hope Klefbom doesn’t get the sophomore jinx, and then get a #1 goalie, and then hope Yak gets better, and we get the Lander from the world championship and not the Lander from last training camp, and then hope everyone stays healthy and then yes, they are ready to compete.

  52. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    russ99: Because only a handful of those players actually turn into a Bob Gainey type when they lose the physical edge they have playing with their direct age group now.

    If we keep #16 we had better be sure that player can help us in his ELC, considering our upcoming cap crunch.

    Too easy to swing and miss on a big, tough kid currently dominating 18 year olds. Look at Kyle Beach.

    If he’s there at 16, I’ll be OK with it, but trading assets to get him could amplify the risk considerably.

    Especially when you consider that he’s not dominating despite the size advantage. He’s putting up OK numbers, but nothing great. If I recall correctly they also got a big spike when Bennett joined the team. He seems to be more of a complimentary player, as opposed to the play driver. You put him with someone who can pass to him at the right time or someone who needs a digger and he’ll get the job done, but if you’re down by a goal he wouldn’t be the guy you turn to. He does have a good defensive game but I just struggle to see him as being a consistent top 6 F. Or maybe I’ve just seen too many coke machine picks by the Oilers and so I don’t trust big men who don’t blow the doors off offensively.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s another sport but consider this: Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season, Joe Montana in his 3rd season.

    … and John Elway in his 15th season.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Yes a #1 D, and then a #2D, and then hope Klefbom doesn’t get the sophomore jinx, and then get a #1 goalie, and then hope Yak gets better, and we get the Lander from the world championship and not the Lander from last training camp, and then hope everyone stays healthy and then yes, they are ready to compete.

    They have 4 1OVs, possibly the best Top 6 in the league, and quite probably will soon have the best player in the league.

    It’s never perfect but there’s enough here to be competitive and focus on winning now instead of continuing on an interminable rebuild. The Hawks are winning with 4D right now. An elite core finds a way.

    The new house we’ve been building is livable now. If the wife still wants further renovation, she may have to put up with a little noise and dust.

  55. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: … and John Elway in his 15th season.

    Went to 4 SBs before that. The first in his 4th season. In fact, he’s the perfect example of being aggressive to extend the window of opportunity.

  56. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: … and John Elway in his 15th season.

    Back to back no less

  57. slopitch says:

    Good post knighttown. Its spot on. You build from the backend out in this league and the Oilers are bass-ackwards. We saw in 2006 the impact of a premium defender. McDavid fell from the sky like manna from the heavens. But there is still tons of work for this team to really turn it around.

  58. GCW_69 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I like Pouliot and he’s a corsi monster, but if Ottawa is willing to do Anderson for Pouliot (they had interest in him in the off-season), I think you have to consider it.Could be a win win for both sides.

    Yes, then sign Soderberg as the replacement.

  59. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s another sport but consider this: Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season, Joe Montana in his 3rd season.

    Truly elite players arrive good to go. The biggest mistake you can make is waiting too long to build a competitive team around them. The better approach is to widen the window of opportunity as much as possible to compete for as many Cups as possible.

    The good teams are drafting late every year. They have to find ways to procure good prospects in later rounds or outside the draft. The Oil will need to learn to do the same to keep reloading in the cap era.

    ‘Promise’ and ‘potential’ has become the opiate of this fanbase. In reality, potential pales in comparison to a much more important objective – winning.

    I agree with this for sure.. If we can get a #1 or 2 D and the correct goalie and scratch Ference every game until he finally retires we stand a good chance at the playoffs.. Yes there are a lot of if’s.. the biggest is CMD.. we need his point totals to be in the 70’s at the very least.. If we are close it would be nice to be in on the buying side at the trade deadline rather than the selling.. For me it all comes down PC and can he make the right roster moves.

    After the correct roster moves the two most important things for next year are goaltending and injuries. If we stay healthy I expect a massive breakout year from Nuge as teams will focus on Hall and CMD.. if Hall can stay healthy then CMD will also have a Calder winning year hopefully with 80 points.. assuming of course he does not get injured.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Went to 4 SBs before that. The first in his 4th season. In fact, he’s the perfect example of being aggressive to extend the window of opportunity.

    Not to nitpick but it was 3 SBs before his first one.
    2-3 career record overall in the big game.

  61. OilSafety says:

    Racki:
    Teddy Purcell with half salary retained and a higher pick? Wishful thinking I guess, but they’re not going to get a stellar top six guy for a goalie either. Or not likely to.

    I’m with Racki and others, if we go after Anderson, lets make Purcell work. I imagine Ottawa wants a guy with more than one year left, so there’s gotta be an add, say a pic as others have mentioned. Can you spit shine Purcell in to a top 6, or does he top out as a middle six forward? Purcell is the easiest guy to replace with guys bubbling under in our top 9, and if we can lose some of that salary, Music!

    As for Pouliot for Anderson, hell no! reasonably priced, grabbing the opportunity he was given, size and gritensity in top 6, he’s everything we need.

  62. zatch says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree completely. Adam McQuaid is the last thing we need, unless we ditch FSN. Then he fills a bottom pairing steady vet role. Like Ference is supposed to. It’s the same logic that got us into this mess. I want him nowhere near the team barring a dismantling of FSN.

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar: Back to back no less

    Amazing athlete. Could’ve been a legitimate MLB all star as well.

    Most accurate QB ever when scrambling. Ability to throw across his body with velocity? Only Warren Moon could match that imo.

    Marino, Brady and Unitas were/are the best pure pocket passers, but no one could match Elway on the move.

  64. GCW_69 says:

    I wonder if one year of Nikitin at $4.5M gets you James Wisniewski for 2 years? Anaheim saves one year in term, $1M in cap space this year and $5.5 next year, and $3.5M in real cash.

    They could buy out Nikitin and do even better.

  65. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Amazing athlete. Could’ve been a legitimate MLB all star as well.Most accurate QB ever when scrambling. Ability to throw across his body with velocity? only Warren Moon could match that imo.Marino, Brady and Unitas were the best pure pocket passers, but no one could match Elway on the move.

    Big Ben says hello.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar: Not to nitpick but it was 3 SBs before his first one.
    2-3 career record overall in the big game.

    Good spot. My bad. Must’ve confused him with Jim Kelly.

    That decade was a bad one for the AFC.

  67. knighttown says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    knighttown,

    Nice rant, though you may have picked the wrong day to focus on JT “Just Terrible” Brown.

    Lol. Yes, methinks Mr. Brown may see a slight dip in evens after getting out-battled for a puck by the ultra-gritty Teuvo Teravainen.

  68. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Amazing athlete. Could’ve been a legitimate MLB all star as well.

    Most accurate QB ever when scrambling. Ability to throw across his body with velocity? Only Warren Moon could match that imo.

    Marino, Brady and Unitas were/are the best pure pocket passers, but no one could match Elway on the move.

    Moon was also absolutely outstanding passing while running to his left, the opposite of a standard roll-out. He’d square up his shoulders and drop one in to Tom Scott or Brian Kelly 30 yards downfield and make it look easy.

  69. GCW_69 says:

    If Chiarelli is pretty confident he can sign Soderberg for Pouliot’s money, I would like to see what the 33rd pick and Pouliot would fetch in return as well as testing the waters on the 16th pick and Pouliot.

    Soderberg for Pouliot is a reasonable swap. Soderberg has a little more offence, where as Pouliot probably has a little more nasty.

    Would Pouliot plus one of those picks get you a top four defender?

  70. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Good spot. My bad. Must’ve confused him with Jim Kelly. That decade was a bad one for the AFC.

    Man I felt bad for those Bills teams. 4 straight right? Goddamn

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    knighttown: Lol. Yes, methinks Mr. Brown may see a slight dip in evens after getting out-battled for a puck by the ultra-gritty Teuvo Teravainen.

    To Brown’s credit he subsequently made a perfect deflection of Vermette’s shot.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar: Big Ben says hello.

    That would be a close call. Ben’s career comp pct is higher than Elway’s but Roethlisberger is playing in the era when every QB completes a higher percentage of passes. Brees is deadly accurate as well.

    Like Elway, Ben is great at extending the play.

    Loses points with me for being a rapist!

  73. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Loses points with me for being a rapist!

    Allegedly.

    Let’s not go down this road.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Moon was also absolutely outstanding passing while running to his left, the opposite of a standard roll-out. He’d square up his shoulders and drop one in to Tom Scott or Brian Kelly 30 yards downfield and make it look easy.

    You nailed it. Moon rolling left. Perfect rainbow to Kelly in stride. One of those favorite, indelible memories of my youth.

    Moon >>>> Flutie.

    As always, it sucks to be a Calgary fan ; )

  75. Soup Fascist says:

    If Jeremy Roy gets drafted by the Oil, someone is going to have to break it to him that jersey #97 is taken. Que up MacT on Skype.

    Adam McQuaid is a rugged big-bodied defender with almost no offensive instincts and the footspeed of a geranium. I do not think he is a significant upgrade over Keith Aulie, personally.

    Not sure where the Benny Pouliot for Craig Anderson thing came from, but if Chiarelli made that deal – yikes! As mentioned by others above I like Anderson Ok, but …. you can’t afford to overpay for average / competent goaltending.

  76. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Soup Fascist,

    We can’t move Pouliot, we only have 1 of that player type. Pouliot complements RNH & Ebs so damn well, and that means we have a fantastic second line locked up at $16million for several years. I’ll take that.

  77. TheGreatMutato says:

    Woodguy,

    I was bearish on Lehner until I read the Woodguide. You’ve fully convinced me that he is the wrong choice.

    But at the end of the day we all know that it won’t matter because Holtby is going to ask for a trade in Washington and the Capitals will have to make the difficult choice to allow him his dream of playing for his favorite team growing up as opposed to holding him hostage. Why? Because it’s the summer of McDavid and because dare to dream and because Oilers.

  78. Soup Fascist says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Soup Fascist,

    We can’t move Pouliot, we only have 1 of that player type.Pouliot complements RNH & Ebs so damn well, and that means we have a fantastic second line locked up at $16million for several years.I’ll take that.

    We agree. What looked like a suspect signing due to high dollars and term last year does not look bad based on the dimension Pouliot added and the goal scoring / forecheck threat he provided. There are enough goaltending options that moving out a key piece is not required.

  79. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    TheGreatMutato:
    Woodguy,

    But at the end of the day we all know that it won’t matter because Holtby is going to ask for a trade in Washington and the Capitals will have to make the difficult choice to allow him his dream of playing for his favorite team growing up as opposed to holding him hostage. Why? Because it’s the summer of McDavid and because dare to dream and because Oilers.

    Avs already have good goaltending.

    http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2013/09/25/braden-holtby-takes-over-the-washington-capitals-twitter-account-and-answers-your-questions/

  80. knighttown says:

    slopitch:
    Good post knighttown. Its spot on. You build from the backend out in this league and the Oilers are bass-ackwards. We saw in 2006 the impact of a premium defender. McDavid fell from the sky like manna from the heavens. But there is still tons of work for this team to really turn it around.

    I found one of the most interesting quotes MacTavish ever made was something along the lines of going “all-in” on a skilled and fast team. They were so far down that line that to start to head back toward the middle would be almost pointless.

    Every once in awhile a team is so staggeringly different that they win in a completely different way.

    The Broad Street Bullies, the 80’s Oilers and the 90’s Devils are examples of teams that ushered in their own eras. Across the leagues, the 80’s Celtics/Lakers, 80’s 49ers and 00’s Ravens spring to mind.

    It would take one large set of balls but it could be argued that the Oilers have as good a chance as anyone of doing that in hockey. I would assume there IS a skill gap that is theoretically achievable whereas no size or tactics could offset the difference. What if the Oilers moved out Gordon-Klink and Hendricks and scour the globe for more (affordable) speed and skill? What if they redo their defense with offense first guys and Todd McLellan let’s them run loose? What if they find a mentally tough “Grant Fuhr” who can live with a 4.5 GAA because he knows him team could score 6?

    Instead of trying to beat the Kings or Blues at their own game, what if they attempt to demoralize the Kings and Blues by making it abundantly clear that they can no longer keep up?

    Over time get to…

    Hall-McDavid-Kessel/Radulov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lander-Ribeiro- Versteeg
    Draisatl-Roy-Yakupov

    Burns/Greene/Yandle-Krug
    Schultz- Fransson
    Wiz-Zidlicky

    Ah, who am I kidding. That’s about 100 million in cap space and they’d probably still be terrible.

  81. Yeti says:

    OilSafety: Can you spit shine Purcell in to a top 6, or does he top out as a middle six forward?

    Are we talking AHL or NHL?

  82. TheGreatMutato says:

    Yeti,

    Four or five 5th/6th d-men and three back-up goalies. Depth, ladies and gentlemen.

    AnOmYnOuS1,

    I would ask you to kindly keep your ‘facts’ out of my wild speculation; thank you very much sir!

  83. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Next up for Draisaitl is a road trip to Edmonton for the weekend, after which he will fly to Cologne, Germany to be with his family for the first time since being drafted. After some family time it is back to Edmonton for a full summer of training as he looks to make the team out of training camp and stick for good.

    “For me, it’s really important to have a really strong summer and get stronger,” Draisaitl said. “Obviously, my goal is to be on that team again. I’m looking forward to a good summer and hopefully I’ll be much better next year.”

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=769905&navid=DL|EDM|home

  84. Hammers says:

    Funny I don’t see any potential trading of a player along with # 16 . Thinking along the lines of say Nikitin plus #33 for Maata or Pouliot . Maybe #16 if Pitt added a 3rd rd pick or 4th for either of those two . Been a long time since anything really creative has been done . I don’t mind if a great deal is made for any top “D” . Maybe its time to look at Bowmeester for 1 of those picks + .My point is decision makers should look at all options and if we can trade some weak links along with a pick we should try .

  85. leadfarmer says:

    GCW_69,

    Or Anaheim can just give Wiszniewski away for free this offseason and not take back a crap contract

  86. dustrock says:

    https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/

    Latest Blue Bullet he looks at goalies. Says from #31-77 actually 47% of goalies picked there play 50+ NHL games, better odds than forwards & D from picks #31-90.

    He says scouts picking goalies after pick 80 crash and burn hard.

  87. dustrock says:

    Sorry, later rounds are much better for Euro goalies than North American goalies. Do not pick a NA goalie after pick 80.

  88. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    TheGreatMutato,

    My apologies. I think you’re onto something though. We’ve got Ebs, the 2 Todds and Gordon. Maybe we just need more Sask boys.

    dustrock,

    So just go after Euros only until another Price shows up? Sounds like a plan to me.

  89. theres oil in virginia says:

    Anybody care to guess when the last time Wisniewski played a full season?

    Hint: It’s a trick question.

    He’s played in 53% (551/1032) of the possible regular season games since his first year in 2005-06. Not to mention that he’s now age 31.

  90. GCW_69 says:

    leadfarmer:
    GCW_69,

    Or Anaheim can just give Wiszniewski away for free this offseason and not take back a crap contract

    Possibly. Who knows? Its a big cap hit.

  91. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock:
    https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/

    Latest Blue Bullet he looks at goalies.Says from #31-77 actually 47% of goalies picked there play 50+ NHL games, better odds than forwards & D from picks #31-90.

    He says scouts picking goalies after pick 80 crash and burn hard.

    With their #33 pick, the Edmonton Oilers will likely have the opportunity to draft the first G in the draft, thus securing the best prospect at that position. That is value.

    The only argument against this is positional bias ( ie goalies are voodoo). I suspect Pete Chiarelli is too smart to fall prey to this bias.

    Who seems more likely as a core contributor to a Cup winner, the #1G prospect in the draft or the 20th ranked forward? If you truly believe in BPA, the answer should be obvious.

    The core conundrum here isn’t F vs G? It is which of the top 4 Gs project most favourably as the future lynchpin. My money is on Samsonov ATM but I think Vladar is a potential dark horse.

  92. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks: With their #33 pick, the Edmonton Oilers will likely have the opportunity to draft the first G in the draft, thus securing the best prospect at that position. That is value.The only argument against this is positional bias ( ie goalies are voodoo). I suspect Pete Chiarelli is too smart to fall prey to this bias. Who seems more likely as a core contributor to a Cup winner, the #1G prospect in the draft or the 20th ranked forward? If you truly believe in BPA, the answer should be obvious.

    I think part of the point is, it’s extremely difficult to luck out with a goalie taken in the later rounds, so look at your top 4 NHL goalies and your top 4 Euro goalies and anywhere from Round 2 on is fair game. I would think with the #57 pick that they should be able to grab one of Blackwood, Samsonov or Vladar, and I wouldn’t blame them.

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock: I think part of the point is, it’s extremely difficult to luck out with a goalie taken in the later rounds, so look at your top 4 NHL goalies and your top 4 Euro goalies and anywhere from Round 2 on is fair game.I would think with the #57 pick that they should be able to grab one of Blackwood, Samsonov or Vladar, and I wouldn’t blame them.

    Nor I.

    Love the sound of this:

    For European goalies, Samsonov is a consensus top 50 pick and is the likeliest to be the first goalie taken in the draft. Meanwhile, there are no other European goalies considered a consensus top 50 pick but there is a 6’5 Czech goalie named Daniel Vladar who is considered the 2nd best European goalie and has more impressive numbers than Blackwood, Booth or Samsonov.

    Vladar is 6’5 and had a .926 SA% while the other goalies on his team had a combined .904 SA%. The difference is 0.22, which the biggest gap of the 4 goalies.

  94. Yeti says:

    Bag of Pucks: Who seems more likely as a core contributor to a Cup winner, the #1G prospect in the draft or the 20th ranked forward? If you truly believe in BPA, the answer should be obvious.

    If it was that obvious, then the goalie prospects would go earlier. When it comes to drafting, and particularly drafting goalies, nothing is obvious.

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Oil could potentially exit this draft with the best G in the draft and the best C in the league.

    This will be a franchise defining day.

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yeti: If it was that obvious, then the goalie prospects would go earlier. When it comes to drafting, and particularly drafting goalies, nothing is obvious.

    Read the article. Drafting G in the 2nd round is the right play.

  97. dustrock says:

    I mean, I guess the other side of it is that there’s several teams who seem to have the goalie factory thing down, and the rest it seems to be guesswork, and more often than not, trading for goalies.

    Oilers were able to trade for some high quality goalies, so it’s not like an inability to develop goalies will kill your team, but man it would be nice to have a do-over on Dubnyk. :p

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock: I think part of the point is, it’s extremely difficult to luck out with a goalie taken in the later rounds, so look at your top 4 NHL goalies and your top 4 Euro goalies and anywhere from Round 2 on is fair game.I would think with the #57 pick that they should be able to grab one of Blackwood, Samsonov or Vladar, and I wouldn’t blame them.

    Will be risky to wait til #57. Scouts are saying once a G is taken in the 2nd, there’ll be a run on them.

    I’d rather have the best guy than the 4th best myself.

    Rather have Megan Fox than Meg Griffin.

  99. SwedishPoster says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Gretzkys third season(fourth as a pro) was his best scoring season but he didn’t win a cup until his fifth season and I think it can be argued if he was a better overall player in his third than he was in the following five seasons, he certainly got his team further in the playoffs, Lemieux won the Stanley Cup in his seventh year, Crosby in his fourth.

    I think we should aim to make the playoffs in McDavids second season and start contending in his third if we’re to become a long term powerhouse(this is with the hypothesis that McDavid is as good as he’s hyped up to be).

    I don’t see any reason to start making any big short term trades this off-season and certainly not until our new GM and coach has gotten a closer look at what they have on the roster and in the pipeline.

    We have a bunch of players where we don’t really know what we have and I think we need to see them under new management and HC before making any big moves.

    Imo we have two summers to fix the D and G situation. Through FAs, trades and internal development. I don’t see any point wasting assets to get forwards at this point, I think the group we have is good enough atm and might be absolutely golden in a season and a half.
    I don’t mind trading picks but it better be something good that can help us for more than just the next two seasons because I struggle to see us contending earlier than McDavids third unless we start offloading pretty much everything but McDavid and RNH for more experienced players while hoping and praying that all of our big trades work out and McDavid is good enough from day one to be an elite top line player.
    Well there’s one more way we become contenders earlier than projected and that is if our young group all take a massive leap forward next year under McLellan, and especially the young defencemen, Klefbom, Nurse, Schultz, Marincin, Davidson all outperforming their current trajectory and arriving earlier and higher than projected. But that’s unlikely and sort goes against the idea of trading futures for more ready players. I do think this team without any big additions but with proper coaching, capable special teams, better confidence and improved goaltending could surprise a lot of people as early as next season but no way in hell they are contenders unless Chiarelli sells his soul.

    And while I don’t think our cap situation going forward is that bad due to RNH, Ebs and Hall being on future value contracts for 4-6 years, we will need quality guys in the pipeline when all our youngsters grow up and wants bigger money and bigger roles/ice time so we can’t just throw away picks for short term solutions for the next few years.

    Chia seems to be looking at guys in the 22-28 year range if trading the picks and I like the sound of that as long as it’s a quailty player though I’m not sure who would be available at a reasonable price.
    Who’s undervalued? Who needs a change of scenery? That’s where I’d go looking. Which usually means a leap of faith.
    You could probably buy low on Lehner, my swedish sources don’t seem too worried about his concussions but he is a bit of a headcase(pun intended), a lot of goalies are bat-poo-crazy but he’s just not that mentally strong so far in his career, on the plus side an incredible talent(best swedish goalie prospect since Lundqvist) and with maturity and experience you sometimes figure out the mental aspects of goaltending. If the buy low is low enough he could be a brilliant move but he will be a gamble but tbh most goalies are.

    I’m sure there are others in a similar situation to Lehner with a lot of upside but right now my head is at a standstill.

  100. russ99 says:

    knighttown: I found one of the most interesting quotes MacTavish ever made was something along the lines of going “all-in” on a skilled and fast team.They were so far down that line that to start to head back toward the middle would be almost pointless.

    Every once in awhile a team is so staggeringly different that they win in a completely different way.

    The Broad Street Bullies, the 80’s Oilers and the 90’s Devils are examples of teams that ushered in their own eras.Across the leagues, the 80’s Celtics/Lakers, 80’s 49ers and 00’s Ravens spring to mind.

    It would take one large set of balls but it could be argued that the Oilers have as good a chance as anyone of doing that in hockey.I would assume there IS a skill gap that is theoretically achievable whereas no size or tactics could offset the difference.What if the Oilers moved out Gordon-Klink and Hendricks and scour the globe for more (affordable) speed and skill?What if they redo their defense with offense first guys and Todd McLellan let’s them run loose?What if they find a mentally tough “Grant Fuhr” who can live with a 4.5 GAA because he knows him team could score 6?

    Instead of trying to beat the Kings or Blues at their own game, what if they attempt to demoralize the Kings and Blues by making it abundantly clear that they can no longer keep up?

    Over time get to…

    Hall-McDavid-Kessel/Radulov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lander-Ribeiro- Versteeg
    Draisatl-Roy-Yakupov

    Burns/Greene/Yandle-Krug
    Schultz- Fransson
    Wiz-Zidlicky

    Ah, who am I kidding.That’s about 100 million in cap space and they’d probably still be terrible.

    Awesome post!!

    I don’t think it’s workable and that we’ll need a good 2-way bottom six to compete in the west.

    But since the league is a copycat league and the Bruins and Kings missed the playoffs and the Preds and Ducks went out earlier than they should have (thanks to the well-rounded Hawks), there’s a distinct possibility the game could swing the other way, especially when the cap goes up and if the league ever sticks to enforcement of a well-defined obstruction penalty to unclog the neutral zone and significantly increase the time it takes for the defensive unit to set up the 4-man lane clogging system we’ve seen all through the playoffs.

    Look at Tampa yesterday, overwhelming the Hawks with offensive play early – and had they not gone into the shell in the third, they may have won.

    It would truly suck if Chiarelli tries to turn us into Bruins 2.0 right when the pendulum swings back the other way towards speed and skill.

  101. SwedishPoster says:

    For goalies out of Sweden in this draft Felix Sandström is very interesting and seems to be pretty low on a lot of draft lists, very inconsistent and some injuries/illness this season but tremendous upside and imo a greater talent than most swedish goalies picked since Lehner. There are a few 7th round longshots out of sweden that could pay off as well Erik Källgren for example, but Sandström is by far the most talented. Was impressive in his short SHL stint.

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    @swedishposter

    Adding a legitimate 1D changes everything, if MTL calls tomorrow offering Subban for Drai, or AZ calls offering OEL for Yakupov and Marincin, you have to pull the trigger and get better now. Hell if you can trade Schultz and next year’s 2nd for Chara, you do that deal in a heartbeat.

    Unless Nurse exceeds all our wildest expectations, Chia has to make a move. This roster hole is gaping and the player we need is not going to fall out of the sky. Addressing it via trade should be preferable to overpaying in free agency.

    The problem with the patience you’re advocating is it still doesn’t address how you acquire the 1d needed to turn North.

    And yes, I have the week off. lol

  103. spoiler says:

    Bruce McCurdy: … and John Elway in his 15th season.

    Maybe not the best choice for a counter argument. Elway was in the Super Bowl in 4 years and had his career-defining “The Drive” that playoffs.

  104. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Anybody care to guess when the last time Wisniewski played a full season?

    Hint: It’s a trick question.

    He’s played in 53% (551/1032) of the possible regular season games since his first year in 2005-06.Not to mention that he’s now age 31.

    Speaking of D and injuries…. did you know that in 10 NHL seasons, Brent Seabrook has missed all of 10 NHL games?

    Considering he’s never had injury trouble, doesn’t play rough and tumble, is a smooth-skater… he might have a little sustain through his 30s.

  105. slopitch says:

    knighttown,

    Interesting concept. Its similar to the money ball thinking. When everyone is looking for a certain player there is, in theory, value elsewhere.

    The Oilers are a long ways from being balanced because the D is so bad but in terms of assets they aren’t really that far off. Teams like Minnesota and Montreal are desperate for offense. Can Chai address the D and G without moving a core forward? This summer I doubt it. By the end of next summer, its possible. I wish I had a crystal ball to see the team in 3 months.

  106. Bag of Pucks says:

    spoiler: Maybe not the best choice for a counter argument.Elway was in the Super Bowl in 4 years and had his career-defining “The Drive” that playoffs.

    Trent Dilfer anyone?

  107. jake70 says:

    knighttown: I found one of the most interesting quotes MacTavish ever made was something along the lines of going “all-in” on a skilled and fast team.They were so far down that line that to start to head back toward the middle would be almost pointless.

    Every once in awhile a team is so staggeringly different that they win in a completely different way.

    The Broad Street Bullies, the 80’s Oilers and the 90’s Devils are examples of teams that ushered in their own eras.Across the leagues, the 80’s Celtics/Lakers, 80’s 49ers and 00’s Ravens spring to mind.

    It would take one large set of balls but it could be argued that the Oilers have as good a chance as anyone of doing that in hockey.I would assume there IS a skill gap that is theoretically achievable whereas no size or tactics could offset the difference.What if the Oilers moved out Gordon-Klink and Hendricks and scour the globe for more (affordable) speed and skill?What if they redo their defense with offense first guys and Todd McLellan let’s them run loose?What if they find a mentally tough “Grant Fuhr” who can live with a 4.5 GAA because he knows him team could score 6?

    Instead of trying to beat the Kings or Blues at their own game, what if they attempt to demoralize the Kings and Blues by making it abundantly clear that they can no longer keep up?

    Grew up watching the 80s teams, much prefer firewagon hockey (now if I was a fan of other Smythe division teams, probably wouldn’t feel the same). Would love to see this play out. Think of Hall’s quote after the 8-pointer by Gagner few years back – ““Those games are fun,” Hall said with a chuckle. “If I had my choice, I’d rather play a 7-6 game than a 2-1 game, for sure.” So you have at least one Oiler who would buy into this.

  108. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks, Gretzky’s best year was 1985-1986, 215 points. That was his seventh season in the NHL and his 8th in pro hockey. His fourth year in pro hockey, 3rd in the NHL, the Oilers didn’t win the Stanley Cup. Didn’t get close. You just claimed Gretzky’s best year ended with the Miracle on Manchester, where the Oilers choked in LA.

    Not to mention that comparing McDavid to Gretzky is silly. The current Oilers don’t have great goaltending, the best 2C in NHL history, and arguably the game’s best offensive DMan. Nor, let me be clear, is McDavid in the same class as Gretzky.

  109. Bag of Pucks says:

    VOR:
    Bag of Pucks, Gretzky’s best year was 1985-1986, 215 points. That was his seventh season in the NHL and his 8th in pro hockey. His fourth year in pro hockey, 3rd in the NHL, the Oilers didn’t win the Stanley Cup. Didn’t get close. You just claimed Gretzky’s best year ended with the Miracle on Manchester, where the Oilers choked in LA.

    Not to mention that comparing McDavid to Gretzky is silly. The current Oilers don’t have great goaltending, the best 2C in NHL history, and arguably the game’s best offensive DMan. Nor, let me be clear, is McDavid in the same class as Gretzky.

    Sorry to disagree, but I’m sticking with 92 goals and 50 in 39 as his best. An additional 3 points doesn’t trump that season imo.

    Agree with your second paragraph. Just making the argument that McDavid is elite and his development curve should be viewed as such. He’ll dominate more rapidly than conventional 1OVs.

  110. Bag of Pucks says:

    jake70: Grew up watching the 80s teams, much prefer firewagon hockey (now if I was a fan of other Smythe division teams, probably wouldn’t feel the same). Would love to see this play out. Think of Hall’s quote after the 8-pointer by Gagner few years back – ““Those games are fun,” Hall said with a chuckle. “If I had my choice, I’d rather play a 7-6 game than a 2-1 game, for sure.”So you have at least one Oiler who would buy into this.

    Championship teams, dynasties especially, can play with skill AND physicality.

    Fill your team with talented smurfs and enjoy the fun while the opposition cycles endlessly in your end.

  111. SwedishPoster says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Problem is none of those offers will turn up. Maybe the Chara one but how long is he a #1 D? Is he still? He didn’t look too brilliant this season though ofc still a very good player.

    Noone is giving us a #1D for Yak or Drai this summer. If McLellan can get the PP jiving and Yak plays all season the way he did the last 30 or so games while Drai takes the step this summer then we might get offers that are worth considering. If Ebs plays all season the way he played under Nelson he migh get us a top pairing guy. But right now? There’s just no way. The players we might get this summer are likely to be either too old, vastly overpaid or both. One year of Seabrook for example isn’t worth anyone of our more valuable pieces. Seabrook on a 7-8 year 7-8 M$ would be terrible and probably kills our chances to prolong contention past McDavids RFA years.

    We need to find to find that top pairing D, I agree, my point is we don’t have to find that player this summer. We can’t find that player this summer. Unless we trade Hall, RNH or McDavid. I’m not sure that’s a great idea.

  112. spoiler says:

    Been combing through war-on-ice trying to find the next breakout Dman…

    Ian Cole looked like the most under-rated Dman last year (although his numbers would be inflated somewhat by the team he was on) and Pitt smartly picked him up to replace their old UFAs.

    One number that really surprised me…

    Brodin at 21 is 4th in the league at TOI/gm 5v5. He’ll never have the scoring, but he’s Lidstrom smart in his own end.

    Finding a guy that’s 24-28 that teams don’t value highly seems to be a near impossible task for Chia, unless of course he’s dealing with an Oiler management that needs to trade Petry.

    Best 24-25 yo Dmen in terms of TOI and CF% (5v5):

    Muzzin
    Josi
    Pietrangelo
    Subban
    Hamonic
    Hedman
    Shattenkirk
    De Haan
    Klingberg
    McDonagh
    Spurgeon
    Carlson
    Kulikov
    Del Zotto
    Ellis

    Honorable Mentions to:

    Schenn
    Ekholm
    Gardiner
    Gudas
    Barberio

    Members of that top group look very difficult to acquire.

  113. Jujhar says:

    So how come its ok for Chia and Bob Green to talk about emphasizing size but when the previous regime did it, we would always respond with coke machine, Moroz, Cameron Abney, etc…

    Why the double standard?

  114. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks, size has nothing to do with your ability to cycle the puck or to bring it out against pressure. The two best forecheckers in hockey’ Datsuk and O’Reilly, are not large men. You can be pretty much any size and be a demon forecheckers or unbeatable in your own end. You can also be huge and useless at these things. Can we instead say that the Oilers need to be better at winning puck battles and drop the bigger is better nonsense?

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    VOR:
    Bag of Pucks, size has nothing to do with your ability to cycle the puck or to bring it out against pressure. The two best forecheckers in hockey’ Datsuk and O’Reilly, are not large men. You can be pretty much any size and be a demon forecheckers or unbeatable in your own end.You can also be huge and useless at these things. Can we instead say that the Oilers need to be better at winning puck battles and drop the bigger is better nonsense?

    Sure if it makes you feel better

    So St Louis takes the puck off Pronger in the corner?

    You do realize if two players are otherwise equally matched skill and battlewise, the bigger player has the physical advantage, right?

  116. spoiler says:

    Murray says he is trying to land a top-6 forward as part of the goalie trade. He says that landing a top forward remains a priority.

    “Part of,”—so not straight across for a top 6 forward.

    Not sure what assets Ottawa has to enhance the deal. I would think they would be unwilling to give up Lazar, Ceci, or Z.

    And I seriously doubt anyone would take Cowan as an add-on.

    Would have to be a pick, wouldn’t it?

  117. Магия 10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fill your team with talented smurfs and enjoy the fun while the opposition cycles endlessly in your end.

    average D is 210 lbs, but I’ve got time all day for talented minute eating 192 pound D that can move the puck out to kill the cycle. So does Conn.

    like chia says It’s how hard they are to play against.

  118. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    spoiler:
    Been combing through war-on-ice trying to find the next breakout Dman…

    Ian Cole looked like the most under-rated Dman last year (although his numbers would be inflated somewhat by the team he was on) and Pitt smartly picked him up to replace their old UFAs.

    One number that really surprised me…

    Brodin at 21 is 4th in the league at TOI/gm 5v5.He’ll never have the scoring, but he’s Lidstrom smart in his own end.

    Finding a guy that’s 24-28 that team’s don’t value highly seems to be a near impossible task for Chia, unless of course he’s dealing with an Oiler management that needs to trade Petry.

    Best 24-25 yo Dmen in terms of TOI and CF% (5v5):

    Honorable Mentions to:

    Schenn
    Ekholm
    Gardiner
    Gudas
    Barberio

    Members of that top group look very difficult to acquire.

    This might be the first time I’ve ever seen anything positive written about Luke Schenn on the internet in the last 5 years.

  119. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Shocked me too.

  120. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Schenn:

    0.8 P/60 — decent
    50.57 CF% — on a bad team
    3.12 Rel ZS — essentially neutral
    15.21 TOI/gm at 5v5 — middle of the pack

    May have turned a corner, although you’d like to see him repeat the performance.

  121. AsiaOil says:

    Absolutely – if we walk out of the draft with the #1 C and #1 G plus a quality dman with around 200 games under his belt for #16 – it will be an outstanding draft. I’m also high on Samsonov as the G target and it may work with our Russian connection building.

    Bag of Pucks: With their #33 pick, the Edmonton Oilers will likely have the opportunity to draft the first G in the draft, thus securing the best prospect at that position. That is value.

    The only argument against this is positional bias ( ie goalies are voodoo). I suspect Pete Chiarelli is too smart to fall prey to this bias.

    Who seems more likely as a core contributor to a Cup winner, the #1G prospect in the draft or the 20th ranked forward? If you truly believe in BPA, the answer should be obvious.

    The core conundrum here isn’t F vs G? It is which of the top 4 Gs project most favourably as the future lynchpin. My money is on Samsonov ATM but I think Vladar is a potential dark horse.

  122. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    zatch,

    At under $2.5M per season for 2-3 years I like McQuaid. I see no problem with adding veteran depth players, especially if middling talents like Franson are going to cost you $5.5M.

    At worst the contract would be moveable if some of our younger players can end up making the jump.

    The Oilers have Adam McQuaid covered with Fayne, and Davidson and Musil backing up Fayne. McQuaid is wasted cap space and a wasted contract. You only have 50.

  123. godot10 says:

    Crouse at #16 is within the range of reasonableness. I wouldn’t trade up to get him. It all depends who else is on the board with him there. The only player I would trade up for from #16 is Hanifin. #JustSayNoah.

  124. Really? says:

    There has been extensive discussion about Crouse and several posters have made a very significant point. The Oilers desperately need a #1 D Man more than almost anything else. This will solidify the team and, when coupled with a potentially great core of forwards, could see the Oilers being highly competitive for the next decade.

    While we have very solid players maturing in both Klefbom and Nurse, neither is seen to be the dynamic offensive talent that can transform the Oilers back end.

    I would therefore focus very heavily on using whatever combination of assets such as 2015 #16, 2015 #33, 2015#57, 2016 first rounder, 2016 second rounder, Pouliot, Yakupov, Gordon, Marincin etc. to move up in this years draft to obtain the best of Hanifin, Povorov or Werenski.

    They should be functional D Men in the NHL within 1-3 years and would fit with the McDavid cluster. Given their level of skill they may even be significant contributors before that. This would be the type of move that would move the Oilers from a playoff contender to a Cup contender. (For those who question this approach, remember the impact that Pronger had on the Oilers and Doughty had on the Kings)

  125. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Oilers in on Rielly:

    Follow

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    The 9 clubs Reilly meeting with: CHI, CBJ, DET, EDM, LA, MIN, MTL, NYR, PIT. Reilly officially becomes UFA on June 16.

  126. godot10 says:

    GCW_69:
    I wonder if one year of Nikitin at $4.5M gets you James Wisniewski for 2 years?Anaheim saves one year in term, $1M in cap space this year and $5.5 next year, and $3.5M in real cash.

    Wisniewski might be Beachemin’s replacement, if Anaheim can’t re-sign Beachemin.

  127. spoiler says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Oilers in on Rielly:

    Follow

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    The 9 clubs Reilly meeting with: CHI, CBJ, DET, EDM, LA, MIN, MTL, NYR, PIT. Reilly officially becomes UFA on June 16.

    He’s a former Penticton Vee so probably the Oil are pissed they never drafted him.

    His 21 yo college season looks like quality, although Jultz was better.

  128. Soup Fascist says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Oilers in on Rielly:

    Follow

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    The 9 clubs Reilly meeting with: CHI, CBJ, DET, EDM, LA, MIN, MTL, NYR, PIT. Reilly officially becomes UFA on June 16.

    Boy oh boy! I hope we get Mike Reilly! Not because I think he is a special defenseman, but because I have “less than 3 minutes” in the Principe Pool as to when the term “Quarterbacking the Powerplay” will be uttered by Gene after the signing. MORTAL LOCK.

  129. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Soup Fascist,

    I have no idea what kind of prospect Rielly is, but I doubt that he’s what the Oilers need, unless Chelli can deal Jultz for something. I just don’t see any prospects or reclamation projects helping this blueline next season.

  130. spoiler says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC · 1h1 hour ago

    Competition Committee approves coaches’ challenge for goaltender interference and offsides. Remember: coach must have his timeout to use.

  131. Soup Fascist says:

    godot10:
    Crouse at #16 is within the range of reasonableness.I wouldn’t trade up to get him.It all depends who else is on the board with him there.The only player I would trade up for from #16 is Hanifin. #JustSayNoah.

    Is it wrong to hope for Werenski or Provorov more? I think Button is out to lunch as to where Hanifin ends up – his M.O. every year is to find whipping boy to push down a ton of spots on his list vs. everyone else’s to get people talking about him. I just think Werenski and Provorov are almost as dynamic as Hanifin, have a better chasis and might come far enough down to where you could move up a few spots and nab one of them by adding another pick to the 16 overall. Probably wishful thinking.

  132. spoiler says:

    From Lebrun’s article 20 minutes ago:

    The Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks, it’s believed, are among several teams that have expressed interest to Ottawa on Lehner.

    The Sharks and Oilers are going to end up competing on some of the same names. For example, sources say both clubs have also shown interest in Cam Talbot of the New York Rangers. Talbot has another season at $1.45 million on his deal, cheap, cheap, cheap for a guy that showed this season he could carry the load when Henrik Lundqvist was hurt. The Rangers may move Talbot to help alleviate some of their cap logjam. They would be looking for future assets for Talbot.

    It’s also believed the Oilers have approached the Ducks about John Gibson, so in other words, Edmonton is inquiring about all the young goalies that may or may not be available, which exactly what they should be doing. I’m not really sure, though, that Anaheim is interested in making a move there at this point.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/38109/rumblings-coaching-decisions-and-goalie-moves

  133. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    spoiler,

    I think Anaheim would be more interested in moving Anderson than Gibson at this point.

  134. spoiler says:

    From Garrioch’s column today:

    Murray told the Sun Thursday seven teams have called on both of his goalies, but more have shown interest in Lehner. It’s believed he’ll fetch a bigger return which is why the 23-year-old is likely the one who is going to get moved when push comes to shove…

    …There’s no question the market is heating up, which is good for Murray because he’s dealing from a position of strength with depth and nobody demanding a move. Sources say the asking price for Lehner is a good, solid, young player in return and a pick in the top two rounds…

    …Of course, Murray would like to get a top six forward or top-end defenceman in return but noted that kind of deal may not be out there. He may try to make the bigger deal by moving a forward or blueliner to see if he can get immediate help but that decision hasn’t been made.

    “That’s a good question and that’s part of what we’re negotiating right now,” he said. “We have to make that determination if we have to sweeten the pot or not and if there’s anybody in fact willing to give up a top six forward.

    “The top four defencemen and the top six forward are hard commodities to get and usually you have to draft unless it’s a cap situation and a veteran player you go make a deal for. At this point, anyway, we’re going to look and get the best deal. If it’s something other than a top six, we’ll have to do it.”

    Murray also said he would like to get something done before the draft, but is willing to wait till training camp, if necessary. My opinion is that’s posturing and no way he waits till TC.

    http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/06/04/seven-teams-showing-interest-in-ottawa-senators-goalies

  135. jake70 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Championship teams, dynasties especially, can play with skill AND physicality.

    Fill your team with talented smurfs and enjoy the fun while the opposition cycles endlessly in your end.

    I was responding to Knighttown’s post – the idea of so much overwhelming offensive talent (smurfs or giants), allowed to run throwing caution to the wind, coming at you in waves that is so smothering it breaks any D system put in front of it. He also mentioned it would cost you 100M to put that team together.

  136. spoiler says:

    The thing about Talbot is that he’s so damn cheap for the next year that he allows you to assign money to solve other holes.

  137. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    spoiler,

    I think Anaheim would be more interested in moving Anderson than Gibson at this point.

    I’m just happy they’re playing knock-a-door-ginger.

  138. Bruce McCurdy says:

    spoiler: Maybe not the best choice for a counter argument. Elway was in the Super Bowl in 4 years and had his career-defining “The Drive” that playoffs.

    Wasn’t an argument, just a point that winning a championship relies on a number of factors and is not always the best yardstick for a single individual.

  139. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GCW_69: If Chiarelli is pretty confident he can sign Soderberg for Pouliot’s money,

    Wait a minute, isn’t he giving “Pouliot’s money” to Anderson?

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