SURF’S UP!

The Bakersfield Condors goalie situation is more settled than Edmonton’s, and unless this summer goes awry the first Oilers team in California should have some real kick to it. If Laurent Brossoit can stop enough pucks, Darnell Nurse defend enough sorties and Leon Draisaitl sends enough sweet passes to the slot, this should be a great season for the hockey fans of Bakersfield.

PROJECTED CONDORS ROSTER

  1. G Laurent Brossoit. He should be the 1G and this is his time to shine.
  2. G Eetu Laurikainen. A terrific bet, got lost in the excitement.
  3. G Ty Rimmer. Depth signing, but he keeps hanging around. Not on 50-man.
  4. D Darnell Nurse. I’m not sure he plays in Bakersfield, we’ll see how the summer rolls.
  5. D Jordan Oesterle. College man now has experience, lordy he can wheel.
  6. D David Musil. Should be a big part of the Condors blue next year.
  7. D Dillon Simpson. Turned a corner later in the season, will build on it.
  8. D Martin Gernat. I have no idea where he’s going to end up.
  9. D Ben Betker. Big and has speed, a fun combination.
  10. D Joey Laleggia. Highly skilled, should get PP time in 2015-16.
  11. C Leon Draisaitl. Ideally he spends most of the season in Bakersfield.
  12. C Bogdan Yakimov. I can’t wait to see his year over year progress, encouraging rookie year.
  13. C Alexis Loiseau. AHL deal. He’s 21, 6.01, 180, he scored 96 points in 68 QMJHL games.
  14. C Jujhar Khaira Looks like he has a future as a checking C.
  15. C Travis Ewanyk Tough checker who will probably play a big role in PK department.
  16. L Ryan Hamilton He’ll be the veteran hand in the  minors helping to guide the kids.
  17. L Anton Slepyshev. Recently signed and very skilled. He should impact the AHL in 2015-16.
  18. L Kale Kessy. He was emerging as an AHL regular when injured, should build on that in 2015-16.
  19. L Mitch Moroz. Didn’t get close to enough at-bats this season.
  20. L Connor Rankin. Bakersfield signing, scored 32 in the WHL.
  21. L Braden Christoffer. Tough winger with skill, 5.10. Bakersfield signing.
  22. R Iiro Pakarinen. Should be a quality AHL regular in 2015-16, could get called up.
  23. R Greg Chase. Really looking forward to seeing his progress next year.
  24. R Kyle Platzer He’ll push his way up the depth chart. Center, I’ve moved him here.

Folks, it took exactly one forever to go from having no AHL team to spending a spring morning contemplating real quality and depth, but thank God, Greyhound and Steve Tambellini we are here. Impact prospects Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl enter pro hockey with a club that includes a legit goalie prospect (Brossoit), a substantial group of developing defensemen, and some fascinating prospects like Yakimov, Slepyshev, Pakarinen, Chase and Platzer. They won’t all turn out, but we’re going to be looking back on this first Condors team and talking about their impact on the big team five years from now. No doubt in my mind.

PROJECTED OILERS ROSTER (SO FAR)

  1. G Ben Scrivens (suspect he’ll return in a backup role)
  2. D Nikita Nikitin (No. 1 candidate for buy out to my eye)
  3. D Mark Fayne (One of the few names the new coach can count on)
  4. D Andrew Ference (5-6-7D likely role for coming season)
  5. D Oscar Klefbom (If they could give him second pairing Klef could shine like a diamond)
  6. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Outstanding young player. Complete skill set)
  7. C Anton Lander (Important player for 15-16)
  8. C Boyd Gordon (veteran could be trade bait by deadline if things break right)
  9. L Taylor Hall (Impact player, pushes the river at 23. Lordy)
  10. L Benoit Pouliot (A rugged winger with skill, brilliant hire by MacT)
  11. L Matt Hendricks (Had a wonderful year, can he do it again?)
  12. L Luke Gazdic (His roster spot could be vulnerable)
  13. R Jordan Eberle (Pure skill, absolutely a killer in close)
  14. R Nail Yakupov  (I have absolutely no idea how this will go)
  15. R Teddy Purcell (I keep seeing people trying to buy him out. He’s miles from being a problem)
  16. R Rob Klinkhammer (Signed for next season, may have competition for his job)

Honestly the forward group is sublime. The collective futures among the F’s is stunning if you’re a fan, diabolical if you live in Vancouver. The goaltending and the defense need fixing and of course that’s been clear (in the case of the defense) since Chris Pronger left town. Talk by Darren Dreger yesterday that Dougie Hamilton is an offer sheet candidate. Peter Chiarelli would need the balls of of a pirate to do that, but then again there are still pissed off people in Ottawa because Zdeno Chara.

RFA’S (WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART)

  1. G Tyler Bunz (Oil will upgrade, leave Bunz behind)
  2. D Justin Schultz (one of the first major tests for Chiarelli)
  3. D Martin Marincin (I hope Chiarelli likes him)
  4. D Keith Aulie (Oilers may want to sign him, suspect the team will ponder him as a 7D)
  5. D Brad Hunt (Dynamic AHL player, may mentor Laleggia next season)
  6. D Brandon Davidson (The one AHL guy I’m certain they’ll sign)
  7. C Kellen Lain (He’s bloody huge. Unlikely to sign)
  8. L Matt Fraser (I think the need for speed probably seals his fate. Slepy signing could impact decision here)
  9. L Curtis Hamilton (The Slepyshev signing puts him 3L in AHL, meaning No. 8 on LW depth chart. Think he’s gone)
  10. R Andrew Miller (Impressive season probably gets him another contract)
  11. R Tyler Pitlick (Do the Oilers bring him back again? It’s going to be close)

Among the RFA’s, we can expect to see Justin Schultz, Brandon Davidson and Andrew Miller signed. After that, Martin Marincin, Keith Aulie, Brad Hunt, Matt Fraser and Tyler Pitlick are (imo) less than 75% to return. I don’t think we’ll see Tyler Bunz, Kellen Lain and Curtis Hamilton return.

Christmas early! Bob McKenzie normally releases this draft week but the hockey Gods have smiled on us because today’s the day. McKenzie’s list is the de facto Bible for the draft and his rankings routinely predict 85% of the first round (his top 30 usually predicts 26 or so of the actual first-round picks). The Lowdown got the Sepp Blatter news earlier in the week, but this is bigger! 10am, McKenzie’s list. Geek out! It’ll be especially interesting to see where he has Lawson Crouse and Pavel Zacha. My latest list is here, will update tomorrow and have ‘Oilers and the BCJHL’ slotted for 5pm today (although it’s been slotted for 5pm several days this week and hasn’t made it because of actual news).

adams4

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Busy show, lots to talk about beginning at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Bigmouth Sports. We’ll talk about the Women’s World Cup of Soccer, SCF and 2015 draft.
  • Dustin Nielson, TSN1260. One of my favorite guests, Dusty loves the draft so much he’s going! We’ll talk about the Oilers and that magic first round.
  • Armen Bedakian, MLS Soccer dot com. We’ll talk about the WC, TFC and Champions League final.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. The Eddies are on the road as the spring season draws nearer to a close.

TSN1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Sincere thanks for tuning in, it’s genuinely appreciated. Questions and comments always welcome.

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149 Responses to "SURF’S UP!"

  1. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    “The collective futures among the F’s is stunning if you’re a fan, diabolical if you live in Vancouver.”

    Are you trolling DSF on a Friday morning? You’ve made my week. Thank you sir!

  2. slopitch says:

    Can someone explain how the Kessel deal went down? Did Burke OS him and then they agreed on a trade in the 7 day window? Man if a Hamilton OS went down the summer would truly be fantastic. Could see Colorado being very interested as well as Calgary.

  3. thejonrmcleod says:

    Igor Kleyner @IgorKleyner: Nobody messes with @MattHendy26 and gets away with it! (from Nail Yakupov interview with SovSport)

    See link for story: https://twitter.com/IgorKleyner/status/606830343367360512

  4. Chris says:

    Still looking for some info on The Pint location for the upcoming draft party. Will it be at both locations? Is anyone from here going? Which location? Travelling from Calgary, so a little help from my ‘Lowetide friends’ would be of some assistance!

    Great article! I think Pete lets Schultz waltz out, or maybe trades him. Maybe he moves him to forward!

  5. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    Can someone explain how the Kessel deal went down? Did Burke OS him and then they agreed on a trade in the 7 day window? Man if a Hamilton OS went down the summer would truly be fantastic. Could see Colorado being very interested as well as Calgary.

    The OS was there, but Burke wanted to make a deal and overpaid iirc.

  6. smellyglove says:

    I drove through Bakersfield a few months ago. Not exactly a nice city, but at least it’s in Cali!

    I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation. Lots of billboards for citizen groups fighting agriculture fighting industry all over water. It was almost post-apocalyptic! Canary in the coalmine for climate change that’s for sure.

    Go Barons!

  7. dustrock says:

    smellyglove: I drove through Bakersfield a few months ago. Not exactly a nice city, but at least it’s in Cali!I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation. Lots of billboards for citizen groups fighting agriculture fighting industry all over water. It was almost post-apocalyptic! Canary in the coalmine for climate change that’s for sure.Go Barons!

    Perfect place for ice hockey!

    Re Pitlick – if he’s really going to cost a cool $1 million, I’m honestly not super interested. I guess I just don’t see the player that other people see, and it’s mostly the lack of scoring that’s the killer. The effort is there, for sure.

  8. Bag of Pucks says:

    Random thoughts:

    – Those Bakersfieldites are coming out of the gates with a pretty solid roster. Should be an entertaining hockey team.

    – Can’t see Gernat lasting under Chia. Exact opposite of heavy on stick. Can’t believe he lasted this long.

    – Cathal Kelly is a tool

    – Amy Adams is an absolutely fantastic actress with a very weirdly shaped nose.

    – Based on Dustrock’s description, they should film the next Mad Max film in Bakersfield. If you haven’t seen Fury Road yet, run don’t walk to the theatre.

    – I like boobies

  9. Clay says:

    Man, an offer sheet for Hamilton. Talk about Chia swimming in the smoke of bridges burnt…

    Hamilton fits the bill, though. Right age, right skillset, right size, right(hand) shot. He ticks off every box on the #1 dman of the future list.

    Imagine a top pairing of Hamilton and Nurse in about 4 years? Almost as insane as a top line with Hall and McDavid.

    Might just be worth the compensatory draft picks…

  10. Yeti says:

    smellyglove,

    Not only is California drying, it’s sinking too. Massively. https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and-its-getting-worse/

  11. Rational Zealot says:

    smellyglove:
    I drove through Bakersfield a few months ago. Not exactly a nice city, but at least it’s in Cali!

    I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation. Lots of billboards for citizen groups fighting agriculture fighting industry all over water. It was almost post-apocalyptic! Canary in the coalmine for climate change that’s for sure.

    Go Barons!

    Have you seen Chinatown? You just described the history of California.

  12. Halfwise says:

    smellyglove:
    I drove through Bakersfield a few months ago. Not exactly a nice city, but at least it’s in Cali!

    I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation. Lots of billboards for citizen groups fighting agriculture fighting industry all over water. It was almost post-apocalyptic! Canary in the coalmine for climate change that’s for sure.

    Go Barons!

    More like the canary in the coal mine for bad water management practices and policies. No meaningful reservoir storage has been added in California since 1979 despite rapid growth in population and continued normal (=big) cycles of drought and rainfall. The state is a basket case, self-inflicted, and the billboards you saw are evidence of the factions and forces involved.

    I’m glad to see the AHL organize a Western presence, but the California economy is neither healthy nor even pointed in the right direction.

  13. TheGreatMutato says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah, the initial trade offer came around the draft and talks between Burke/Chia involved a first rounder and Kaberle(?). Somehow that fell through and the two started talking again later once it was clear negotiations between the Bruins and Kessel were going nowhere. Plus the Bruins had cap issues.

    The Bruins were smart in being pretty vocal in saying they’d match offer sheets, so teams had to try and put together a trade of pretty high value.

    I don’t recall if there was ever an actual offer sheet in play from Burke (I don’t think there was). He was willing to go that route, but his rhetoric at the time was about open dialogue between the GMs during any offer sheet process to avoid what he saw as being caught off-guard or whatever by Kevin Lowe in the Dustin Penner situation. As I recall, he talked with the Bruins of his intentions to maybe go that route but they worked something out instead.

    In the end, Burke was going to overpay no matter what. Either he’d overpay in salary in order to put together an OS which the Bruins wouldn’t match (and then have to provide compensation on top of that) or he’d overpay in trade in order for the Bruins to give him up at all.

  14. zatch says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Kelly is a fool. He writes a lot of populist crap with no thought put into it other than how to get hits. The Globe should be ashamed to have him writing for them.

    Bakersfield could indeed be getting a dandy of a roster. Good for drawing attention.

    Boobies are swell.

  15. Woodguy says:

    The Bobfather just said that Talbot is the Oilers’ “primary” target for G.

    He was on the 1260 morning show.

    Yay!

    Go get em Pete!

  16. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Purcell the player isn’t a problem, but he’s somewhat easily replaceable for cheaper. If you could dump Purcell on a cap floor team and sign Santorelli at 2-2.5M, I think that’d be a smart move. Gives some room for the 6×6 EDM will have to give Sekera

  17. DBO says:

    Trade for Talbot or Gibson (my preferred choice).
    Offer sheet Hamilton. 8 years, $7.1 Million.
    Sign two way winger.
    Dump two of Nikitin, Schultz or Ference.

    Uhhmmm. Does it freak anyone out that this is not out of the range of possibility, and if he pulls it off Chia gets the keys to the city

  18. TheGreatMutato says:

    zatch: ,

    Kelly is a fool. He writes a lot of populist crap with no thought put into it other than how to get hits.

    And I’d like to think we’re all smart enough to know that this is how media works in our current times. You don’t get attention or hits or ad revenue without providing controversy or upsetting people. With that understood, such articles or viewpoints are easy enough to disregard.

    At the very least, Kelly should be happy that he gets to visit one of National Geographic’s top 10 summer destinations on The Globe’s dime!

  19. speeds says:

    DBO:
    Trade for Talbot or Gibson (my preferred choice).
    Offer sheet Hamilton. 8 years, $7.1 Million.
    Sign two way winger.
    Dump two of Nikitin, Schultz or Ference.

    Uhhmmm. Does it freak anyone out that this is not out of the range of possibility, and if he pulls it off Chia gets the keys to the city

    An offer sheet to Hamilton beyond 5 years at that money increases the compensation due to the way compensation is calculated. Compensation is calculated as total money divided by number of years, or 5, whichever is less.

    A 35M, 5 year offer sheet would cost a 1st, 2nd and 3rd in compensation, but a 49M, 7 year offer sheet would cost 4 – 1sts.

  20. Soup Fascist says:

    smellyglove:
    I drove through Bakersfield a few months ago. Not exactly a nice city, but at least it’s in Cali!

    I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation. Lots of billboards for citizen groups fighting agriculture fighting industry all over water. It was almost post-apocalyptic! Canary in the coalmine for climate change that’s for sure.

    Go Barons!

    Did you drive through Bakersfield, or walk the streets? If you didn’t walk the streets, you really shouldn’t judge. Or so I have heard.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Soup Fascist: Did you drive through Bakersfield, or walk the streets?If you didn’t walk the streets, you really shouldn’t judge.Or so I have heard.

    We HAVE a winner! Buck says thanks!

  22. Soup Fascist says:

    I think Pete knows the Bruins are matching whatever gets OS’d to Hamilton. I think what may shake out – post-matching – is Dennis Seidenberg, who Chiarelli apparently covets.

    A lefty on the wrong side of 30 and a year too much term for my liking but a reasonable contact, dollar wise and an honest to goodness NHL defenseman. He is a stop gap who will be 36 when his contract expires but would improve this group.

    Would love to poach Hamilton, but I expect this could be the outcome of a Hamilton OS.

  23. rickithebear says:

    Brunt on 960 this Am says:
    He has been to major sovccer events all over the world with kelly
    First thing Kelly does is write an article attacking the host city he is at!

  24. Soup Fascist says:

    rickithebear:
    Brunt on 960 this Am says:
    He has been to major sovccer events all over the world with kelly
    First thing Kelly does is write an article attackingthe host city he is at!

    Page 1 of the Crappy Fish Wrap Hack Playbook – manufacture a controversy to get your name out there and bring attention to yourself.

    Hmmm ….. Page 1 of the DSF Playbook, too. :^)

  25. Ducey says:

    I am on vacation so I may have missed it but there doesn’t seem to be any discussion of the Acton and Ramsay firings.

    Does this leave Nelson and Rocky Thompson still standing?

  26. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    I am on vacation so I may have missed it but there doesn’t seem to be any discussion of the Acton and Ramsay firings.

    Does this leave Nelson and Rocky Thompson still standing?

    So far. I haven’t written on it, but will.

  27. russ99 says:

    Glad to see the assistants dismissed, they were Eakins’ guys, and this also means McLellan gets to hire his own guys.

    Ramsay got kind of a raw deal, but the expected “defenseman-whispering” didn’t happen.

    Nelson might be back if he can’t get a head coaching gig and Rocky could still go when the expected hockey ops staff purge to get Chiarelli’s guys comes after the Cup is awarded.

    Looking forward to the Bakersfield Condors next year, and especially a Slepyshev – Draisaitl – Chase line that has a chance to be one of our best scoring lines at the AHL level in decades.

  28. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    The Bobfather just said that Talbot is the Oilers’ “primary” target for G.

    He was on the 1260 morning show.

    Yay!

    Go get em Pete!

    He probably just wants to get on the blogging community’s good side. 🙂

    It’s interesting hearing the names being leaked and trying to figure out thought process based on them. I remember the leaks before the summer last year and it was a weird split. On one hand we heard names like Fayne and on the other hand heard names like Engelland. I found that flummoxing. How can the same person steering the ship find both those names as reasonable options?

    This year, we did hear McQuaid… but that was from Matty and it’s not clear if that was based on insider knowledge or just connecting the dots based on previous Bruins’ defensemen. The goalies, though, all seem to be pointing in the same direction, and since I agree with that direction, I’m quite pleased by it. (Though, like a true Oilers fan, I know not to get my hopes high and disappointment is never far away!)

    Go Pete! *clap clap*

  29. DBO says:

    speeds: An offer sheet to Hamilton beyond 5 years at that money increases the compensation due to the way compensation is calculated.Compensation is calculated as total money divided by number of years, or 5, whichever is less.

    A 35M, 5 year offer sheet would cost a 1st, 2nd and 3rd in compensation, but a 49M, 7 year offer sheet would cost 4 – 1sts.

    Wow. OK that would change it for sure. Whatever edge of that next compensation window happens to be is where I would put the final number. Mostly I do it to force their hand and maybe pluck Chara instead for less. And Eriksson. And yes i am a broken record about thinking those two solve a bunch of problems for the next few years.

  30. godot10 says:

    Before one offer sheets Hamilton, one should extend Klefbom first.

    Kleftbom should be tied up for 8 x $4 million before one offer sheets Hamilton at 5 x $7 million.

  31. slopitch says:

    I wonder what it would take on Boston to walk away from Hamilton. Would take 4 1sts Im sure but 8 million x 8 years? I almost like the strong armed trade approach. Maybe Neely can decide that because Hamilton wants an offer sheet he has an attitude problem and trades him 🙂

    If Chai lands Hamilton and Talbot, it would truely be the summer of Edmonton.

    Also, f**k that dick turd globe and mail troll. Our city rocks.

  32. Racki says:

    Lowetide: The OS was there, but Burke wanted to make a deal and overpaid iirc.

    Phil Kessel for Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton and who gives a shit (Jared Knight) . Hmmm… Let me think about that one…

  33. Yeti says:

    I do remember that Ramsey was often noted as likely ‘the best hire of the summer’ last season. It’s a shame it didn’t work out that way. I wonder why he was unable to have more of a positive effect. Was it simply the tools he was given to work with were simply not good enough?

  34. godot10 says:

    Ramsey is a good coach. He had other offers, but the Oilers offered the most.

    Assistant coaches don’t matter if the head coach is a basket case. Assistant coaches really don’t matter unless they fill a gap in an otherwise competent head coach.

  35. Marc says:

    McKenzie’s list is up http://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-tops-mckenzie-s-final-draft-ranking-1.296839

    It looks like there’s a decent chance that at least 1 of the D we’ve been talking about at 16 should be there at 33.

  36. Rondo says:

    Interesting Jeremy Roy #29 and Zboril #14.

    Makes me think they might go after Zboril at #16 or do they go for the Goalie Samsonov

  37. vinotintazo says:

    I can’t listen to your show… seems this link points to the bear station. -_-.

    http://player.tsn1260.ca/

  38. vishcosity says:

    In terms of dive motels, the Easy 8 by Bakersfield’s Robobank Stadium is pretty legit. My standards are that the bathroom is clean and the bugs are gone. Everything else is essentially expected. Being able to drink and yell until 4 am is I guess nice too, either way its all included in the $39.99.

    Shasta Lake is controlled by the Feds and it is right full. Also the Sacramento river looks like the Red Deer river and probably flows just as fast. Nestle is apparently able to buy ~600 gallons for $1 and a number of orchards are loaded with leaves and look like Georgia in June. Somehow other orchards are dry withered and dead. Seems that its not so much a lack of water but more like a lack of sharing.

    Bakersfield, like Redding, features a significant homeless population, and being on the I5, makes every drug imaginable wholly available and likely cheap. The only new construction is government related. Seems at least half the population is collecting a government cheque and probably half the employed are directly working for the government. The canary, though technically alive, may be on heavily funded life support.

    What struck me about Bakersfield was the number of oil wells inside the city limits. There are probably four locations each at least the size of the CN rail yard north of 118th ave where oil production is going very strong. An hour west of town is what I suspect to be a fracking field that is absolutely massive: pickup trucks, ATCO like trailers, and miles worth of six-inch above-ground highly-fabricated metal pipes.

    In Bakersfield, specifically by the stadium, Mexican food is really quite abundant, like Yuma levels. And cop stations, courthouses, the city hall, seniors group homes, a bus station and almost surely a jail. We spent an evening and a morning near the stadium, and honestly, it wasn’t very sketchy compared to much of what we’ve seen. The Amtrack stops about a block away and looks pretty decent. I’d certainly trust to bring small kids and walk to the arena, even at night. Its certainly no worse than 111 ave and 95.

    Two hours west of Bakersfield is San Luis Obispo, on the coast halfway between LA and SF. That place is so insanely high end. I have no idea how to even describe the level of retail that is going on.

    Off to Redding’s Historic Cascade Theatre. Anyone want tickets to Lyle Lovett and his Large Band? I am so in on that.

  39. Racki says:

    Rondo:
    Interesting Jeremy Roy #29and Zboril #14.

    Makes me think they might go after Zboril at #16 or do they go forthe Goalie Samsonov

    if they are using pick 16 on a goalie, I’d say they should do it on an NHL goalie (i.e. trade it for a proven guy). That should get a pretty good goalie though, given the market. I’d actually prefer the 16th was traded for a D man if possible though.

  40. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    vishcosity: tickets to Lyle Lovett and his Large Band?

    That would be an awesome concert!

  41. wheatnoil says:

    Rondo:
    Interesting Jeremy Roy #29and Zboril #14.

    Makes me think they might go after Zboril at #16 or do they go forthe Goalie Samsonov

    Interestingly, based on the McKenzie… Kylington could be considered a reach at 16, given he’s ranked 24. Roy certainly would be. Fascinating.

    With some luck, it’s not impossible for the Oilers to walk out with McDavid, Kylington, Roy, and Vlader. That’s AHJ, two Ds, and a goalie. (I only know a little about Vlader, but really… D. Vlader? What more do I need to know? He’s already awesome!)

  42. Rondo says:

    wheatnoil,

    Zboril sounds more like a D-man Oilers would want. 6’1 physical good shot good skater.

    McDavid, Zboril, Roslovic, and Gropp

  43. Factotum says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): That would be an awesome concert!

    Outdoors in Bend, Oregon July 12. Looking forward to it!

  44. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Interestingly, based on the McKenzie… Kylington could be considered a reach at 16, given he’s ranked 24. Roy certainly would be. Fascinating.With some luck, it’s not impossible for the Oilers to walk out with McDavid, Kylington, Roy, and Vlader. That’s AHJ, two Ds, and a goalie. (I only know a little about Vlader, but really… D. Vlader? What more do I need to know? He’s already awesome!)

    Would love that.

    I’ve heard varying reports on J. Roy’s skating.
    Anyone in the know care to comment?

  45. Showerhead says:

    Hot take:

    Impressed to see Crouse at #7. I am and have always been more about the math than the eye but here is clearly a guy who scouts like and who is projected to have an impact. I don’t want Edmonton to trade up because math but I’m sure we’ll all be paying attention to what becomes of Crouse as time goes by.

    Provorov at 8. I was hoping to see him lower because Woodguy has me absolutely sold on the guy and I would have loved him at #16. Either way, the top end of the draft looks great.

    Jeremy Roy at 29. I know I’ve read high praise here about Roy (from Lowetide, mostly, right? or have there been others?) and based on that praise alone I kind of hope he drops to #33.

    Of course if all of my wishes come true, we end up with McDavid, Provorov, and Roy and I tend to prefer skilled F to D at the top of the draft.

    Given McDavid, this may be a ridiculous understatement but: what an interesting draft year!

  46. Factotum says:

    BTW, (and Vish – I’m sure you know this, it’s just for anyone who isn’t as familiar with California), Redding and Bakersfield are 750km from each other and worlds apart in water terms. The drought in SoCal is very serious indeed. Cheers.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Based on Bob’s list, Samsonov represents excellent value if he slides to us at #33.

    Wouldn’t object to Vladar at #55 as an alternate scenario.

  48. Factotum says:

    Reading Bob McKenzie’s accompanying blurb, it seems like there’s a pretty clear consensus about how the top end of the draft will get stratified: 1 and 2 are obvious, 3-5 are the next cluster, and then 6-11 are all really close and could go in any order. Seem unlikely that anyone from the top 11 will be available at 16, so our conversation probably starts with Timo Meier (I wish!) and goes from there.

  49. Frank the dog says:

    smellyglove: I couldn’t a) believe how important almond growing and agriculture is to the regional economy, and b) get over how much drought there is there. It was dry and I saw a tonne of irrigation

    Not sure how far south this climate goes, but for the San Francisco area, it’s winter rain and summer drought. Not one drop in summer, low hanging clouds all winter, never get to see the sun.
    So a Californian summer is invariably brown unless you’re in an evergreen forest.
    Most people don’t realize how dry and how agricultural California is.

  50. Rondo says:

    White/Zboril sounds like players Chia would like. Skilled physical and excellent skaters.

  51. Ducey says:

    McDavid got a 6 out of 5 for his skating from Button.

    Yowza!

  52. linkfromhyrule says:

    Love Bobby Mac’s draft rankings, this is shaping up to be a very interesting draft.

    I had to laugh that there is a ranking for compete level in the player profiles. Maybe it’s useful, maybe it isn’t when assessing prospects, but it’s just become such an annoying buzz word (err..phrase?) for me.

    McDavid’s skating is a 6/5 on a scale of 1-5 lmao. Odd his shot is only considered to be a 3/5. In my admittedly limited viewings of him his shot never stood out as being just average. I guess he is more of a playmaker?

  53. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: McDavid got a 6 out of 5 for his skating from Button.Yowza!

    Between him and Nurse the Oil are getting a serious uptick in team speed.

  54. linkfromhyrule says:

    Ducey:
    McDavid got a 6 out of 5 for his skating from Button.

    Yowza!

    Haha damn you beat me to the punch!

  55. Rondo says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 1m1 minute ago
    When you do this rankings exercise, you see “layers” develop. Top 2/Top 5/Top 11/Top 20/scattergun. FWIW, those are somewhat distinct layers

  56. Магия 10 says:

    here’s bobby mac’s analysis of his scout consensus list:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draft-mystery-and-intrigue-starts-after-eichel-1.300623

    He has Hanifin as a clear consensus 3, but definitely not as a lock at 3.

  57. wheatnoil says:

    McKenzie on Kylington:

    “Kylington was a Top 10 pre-season pick and originally seen as a threat to challenge Hanifan and the other high-end defenceman for best blueliner. The Swede is one of this draft class’s best skaters but he didn’t put together his game this season like many thought he would. He hung on to be a first-round pick on TSN’s list, but a considerable number of scouts had him well outside the top 30.”

    That’s quite the fall for Kylington. If actually slides to the second round, he sounds like a great pick at #33. Plus-skating skilled Swedish D-man who has some experience playing against men? Based on SwedishPoster’s info, it sounds like his trouble this year may not be entirely his fault. It’ll be interested to see how he pans out, no matter who he goes to.

    Edit: McKenzie adds on Twitter that some scouts had him outside the top 60!

  58. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    I’m a bit surprised about Zacha at number 6. I figured he’d be in the teens and most likely after the more famous Crouse. Be interesting as to how the top of the draft shakes out. Zboril looks like a pretty good D if we make that pick. Be nice to grab him or Kylington and then grab someone who slides at 33. Think that if we grab a goalie it should be Samsonov or Vladar, Blackwood just hasn’t looked as good to me. So many picks, so many ways to improve or screw it up. Is it Connor McDavid day yet?

    Interesting that the Oilers seem focused on Talbot. That’s breaking rule #1: Don’t trade with Sather! I wonder what Sather’s going to try and get for him, if they trade him at all. Also rumours of Nash being available so maybe that will effect the other trades.

  59. Soup Fascist says:

    Ducey: McDavid got a 6 out of 5 for his skating from Button.Yowza!

    Apparently the “Math is Hard” comment was meant for Button.

  60. Factotum says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 22m22 minutes ago
    Don’t know who EDM will take at 16 but did have multiple other scouts suggest EDM should be looking at RUS G Samsonov, No. 19 on our list.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 22m22 minutes ago
    Samsonov perceived by many as foundation/building block stopper, like Vasilevsky in TB, and EDM doesn’t have one. Need patience, tho.

  61. G Money says:

    godot10:
    Ramsey is a good coach.He had other offers, but the Oilers offered the most.

    Assistant coaches don’t matter if the head coach is a basket case.Assistant coaches really don’t matter unless they fill a gap in an otherwise competent head coach.

    For once, I agree with Godot!

    I think a huge challenge for the team this year was the crushing losses building up after actually starting out quite well. But one problem that stood out early is the expected “Ramsay improvement” in the PP never materialized.

    However, it materialized in spades after Nelson took over.

    The thing to remember is that it happened too fast for it to all be Nelson’s doing. Suspect a lot of it had to do with the Eakins shackles being taken off the team.

    So it’s too bad that Ramsay is going, because I do think there is something there (little regret on Acton, though).

    That said, it is still the correct decision. When a new HC arrives, he has to be able to pick his own staff. Has to.

    The head and assistant coaches are not independent entities. They are an organic unit, as are the offensive and defensive units on the ice, and often they are only going to function as effectively as the weakest link.

    So TMc needs to bring in his own team. I hope that Nelson will be on that team because of his rapport with the young players – but that also can only happen if it’s TMc’s decision and no-one elses.

  62. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    linkfromhyrule: McDavid’s skating is a 6/5 on a scale of 1-5 lmao.

    They were forced into this when they gave Crowse a 4/5 in skating.

  63. OaklandishOil says:

    Extremely long time lurker, first time poster.

    Excited for the move to Bakersfield. My wife’s family is from close to there and my daughter is going to college there in the fall. I plan on making lots of visits that coincide with Condor home stands. I’m secretly hoping that the oiler braintrust thinks that Connor McDavid should start in the AHL so I can see him a little closer to home (I live in oakland, ca). Ah well, at least I should hopefully get to see Nurse and the German before they get called up.

    The Padre hotel is a great place to stay and for food, either go cheap and get taquiria food (when in California, eat as many tacos and burritos as possible), or if you are feeling a bit fancy, Valentien’s is our favorite restaurant there.

    Lowetide and the rest of the regular posters, thank you for bringing a little civilization to Oiler’s conversation and teaching a far away fan a ton about the team I’ve followed since I was 7.

    BTW, as a SoCal beach kid, I would be remiss if I didn’t chide you for putting surf and Bakersfield in the same post. Unless the big one happens and half of California slides into the ocean,Surfing and Bakersfield should never go together. 🙂

  64. DocFan says:

    Anyone hear anything about the Cap Inflator? Reading about the escrow system, while highly confusing is highly interesting as well. The CBA, either intentional or not, has created a situation where players could be pitted against other players.

    I think that 2-3 million difference will make all the difference for some teams.

    I still say trade for Chara – I think Nikitin/Schultz, 2nd round and a prospect gets it done. Incredible cap relief for Boston and we significantly upgrade out D.

  65. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Maybe the 6 is referring to how many gears his skating has. He’s just skating, and then all of a sudden he’s flying and is at the other end.

  66. Pouzar says:

    OaklandishOil: Extremely long time lurker, first time poster. Excited for the move to Bakersfield. My wife’s family is from close to there and my daughter is going to college there in the fall. I plan on making lots of visits that coincide with Condor home stands. I’m secretly hoping that the oiler braintrust thinks that Connor McDavid should start in the AHL so I can see him a little closer to home (I live in oakland, ca). Ah well, at least I should hopefully get to see Nurse and the German before they get called up.The Padre hotel is a great place to stay and for food, either go cheap and get taquiria food (when in California, eat as many tacos and burritos as possible), or if you are feeling a bit fancy, Valentien’s is our favorite restaurant there. Lowetide and the rest of the regular posters, thank you for bringing a little civilization to Oiler’s conversation and teaching a far away fan a ton about the team I’ve followed since I was 7.BTW, as a SoCal beach kid, I would be remiss if I didn’t chide you for putting surf and Bakersfield in the same post. Unless the big one happens and half of California slides into the ocean,Surfing and Bakersfield should never go together.

    Post more. And post lots of scouting reports! Cheers

  67. pocession charge says:

    Factotum:
    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Don’t know who EDM will take at 16 but did have multiple other scouts suggest EDM should be looking at RUS G Samsonov, No. 19 on our list.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Samsonov perceived by many as foundation/building block stopper, like Vasilevsky in TB, and EDM doesn’t have one. Need patience, tho.

    Hell no. A goalie taken at #16 is a brutal idea. He’s Russian, and a goalie, so should be available in the second round. Love the player, btw.

  68. commonfan14 says:

    Pouzar: I’ve heard varying reports on J. Roy’s skating.
    Anyone in the know care to comment?

    I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it until something changes.

    It’s absolutely ridiculous that there can be a question on something like this regarding a major prospect for a sport with a scouting combine.

    Just imagine if we were NFL fans talking about WR prospects and had to rely on nothing but (sometimes conflicting) eyewitness accounts to figure out how fast the guys were?

    The very idea that they would do the NFL combine and not measure everyone’s 40 times is completely absurd, right?

    Same with having the QBs ride a bike, jump and lift weights but not ever throw a football. That would be nuts.

    We can all agree that that would be totally insane, right?

    So, WHY THE HELL is the NHL content to come out of its farce of a combine every year with no measurables of any kind on any of the actual hockey skills of the prospects?

    We should know exactly how fast Roy and every other prospect skates. How is it possible that we don’t?

    We should know the speed of their shots, how fast they get them off, and how accurate they are with them.

    Nope. We settle for knowing their vertical leaps.

    It’s the craziest thing I can think of that everyone somehow accepts and doesn’t question at all.

    – End of annual rant.

  69. Showerhead says:

    commonfan14,

    Preach! For the combine to truly be useful, it should be measuring attributes which actually correspond to playing hockey. Well said, CF14.

  70. Магия 10 says:

    Bobby Mac touts drafting for need with Edmonton’s 16th OV:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 11m11 minutes ago
    EDM focus (after McDavid of course) should be on G and D, not a strong two-way centre like Colin White.

    edit: perhaps he’s thinking more of trading for need.

  71. Yeti says:

    G Money: For once, I agree with Godot!

    I wondered what that icy cold chill was doing down here in hell.

  72. Магия 10 says:

    AnOmYnOuS1: That’s breaking rule #1: Don’t trade with Sather

    Might not be with Sather:

    http://nypost.com/2015/06/05/glen-sather-considers-stepping-down-as-rangers-gm/

  73. Магия 10 says:

    The six fingered glove man finally hits the majors.

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128749374/switch-pitching-pat-venditte-coming-up-to-as

    His personal MLB rule has been waiting for him since this:

    https://youtu.be/yDyCRTlKllk

  74. Oddspell says:

    Магия 10,

    I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re going to see a large amount of Dmen rise into the top-15 of this years draft. Because of that I think we’re going to be faced with the choice of a really good forward or the best available Dman at #16.

  75. knighttown says:

    I see the Oilers draft at #16 like this:

    1. Target one of the potential number 1 defensemen if they fall; Provorov or Werenski
    2. Grab one of the talented wingers with size; Crouse, Zacha, Rantanen, Meier, Connor (really like him) and Svechnikov
    3. Avoid Barzal, Merkley, Konecny, White and Zboril

  76. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Follow

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    Quick note on “fallers.” Brandon Saad was pre-season Top 10 in his draft year, fell to 2nd rd on draft day. Pretty good player. No, great.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Yeti:
    smellyglove,

    Not only is California drying, it’s sinking too. Massively. https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and-its-getting-worse/

    I’ve been following the California drought with growing dread. This only serves to add to it. Thanks for the link, all the same.

  78. Магия 10 says:

    Oddspell:
    Магия 10,

    I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re going to see a large amount of Dmen rise into the top-15 of this years draft. Because of that I think we’re going to be faced with the choice of a really good forward or the best available Dman at #16.

    D are less likely to show in consensus rankings than on draft day where it only takes one team to pick them. In 2012 his consensus 15-17 jumped up to join 5 high ranked D in the draft day top 10:

    Hampus Lindholm, Slater Koekkoek, Derrick Pouliot

  79. Cahoon says:

    No way Provorov falls to 16. Very unlikely Werenski falls to 16 but I would do a happy dance if he did. Stranger things have happened, Seth Jones at number 4,

    And us winning MacDavid!

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!

  80. frjohnk says:

    Looking at the D after Hanifan, Provorov and Werenski as they will be gone before the 11th pick for sure.

    Im a huge fan of big, mobile and skilled D men.

    14. Jakub Zboril
    skating is rated as “very good” 4/5
    6 foot 1

    Jakub is more of a puck mover and transporter to the offensive blue line but can play on the power play and contribute with a good shot. He competes physically, bears down on others, doesn’t give an inch and can be nasty as evidenced by two suspensions this season. A top three defenceman who makes it hard on opponents.

    Projection: No. 3/4 Competitive Defenceman

    22. Brandon Carlo
    skating is rated as “very good” 4/5
    6 foot 5

    A smooth, mobile defending type defenceman. He can break up the cycle and gain possession for his team. He takes space away from opponents and is a difficult player to break down because of his skating. Has a real steadiness to his play and goes about his tasks in a nondescript manner. Effective moving puck but not considered an offensive contributor.

    Projection: No. 3-4 Defensive Defenceman

    24. Oliver Kylington
    skating is rated as “excellent” 5/5
    6 feet

    Arguably one of the very best skaters in the draft, Oliver dances on his blades with equally high-end speed, quickness and agility and makes it look incredibly effortless. His confidence seemed to falter at times and affect his productivity but a turnaround in this could eventually see him, being one of the draft’s best defencemen.

    Projection: No. 3-4 Skating Defenceman

    25. Thomas Chabot
    skating is rated as “very good” 4/5
    6 foot 2

    His year-to-year development has been terrific. Plays a very assured game with and without the puck. He possesses excellent mobility and it allows him to be very effective defensively and to transition to offence quickly. A very good passer who gets the puck into the right spots at the right times. He showed glimpses of being in the group of top three defencemen of this draft, along with Hanifin, Provorov and Werenski.

    Projection: No. 2 Two-Way Defenceman

    27. Gabriel Carlsson
    skating is rated “adequate” 2/5
    6 foot 4

    Gabriel is a big, mobile defenceman who can defend and take up space. Very smart in his positioning and makes good, clean outlet passes. His game is based on having a real good base of defending and ensuring his team can close down the opponents’ cycle and exit the defensive zone quickly and efficiently. Lots of projection but potential is very good.

    Projection: No. 4 Defensive Defenceman

    29. Jeremy Roy

    Skating is rated as “good” with a 3/5.
    5 foot 11

    Jeremy’s game is based on strong play with the puck. He has that ability in all areas; defensively, offensively and in transition. Great poise with the puck and he makes strong decisions that create advantages for his team. His speed is not exceptional but his mental pace of play is outstanding. A strong competitor who finds ways to meet the challenges.

    Projection: No. 3 Offensive Defenceman

    Other than Chabot, nobody is projecting as a possible top pairing D man.

    Of course that will change, but list is interesting.

    I would love to see one of the top 3 slide and oilers trade up and grab one of them, but I think that is wishful thinking.

  81. Rondo says:

    Teams with 1 pick in the first round and who are picking early would favour Forwards i would think , i’m excluding the top 3 D which will go in the top 11.

  82. nelson88 says:

    Article out there; can’t find the link, that Buffalo would like to trade up in the 1st round with their 2nd selection.

    Not a fan of picking G’s in the 1st round in general but lots of positive commentary on Samsonov. If you don’t get good value on an a young, established player for #16 then look at trading the pick for #21 (Samsonov) and something useful (Pysyk?).

    Trade for Anderson for the short term while Samsonov develops. Pysyk does not solve the top pairing D problem but it’s unlikely anything short of a massive overpay involving one of the young stars would.

  83. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    If Roy’s skating is poor, that has me concerned (like others I had heard conflicting reports). Lack of size doesn’t bother me as much as it bothers others. Lack of size WITHOUT above-average speed… that does concern me about taking a high pick on him.

    Carlo sounds a lot like Betker. That’s not a reason to avoid him, just a comment.

    Kylington sounds more and more like a boom or bust prospect… either he puts it together and ends up being elite or the scouts that have him falling are right and he may never cross the pond to play here. It’s a gamble, but I don’t mind it if the team swings for the fences with speed and skill

    I’ll have to look more into Zboril. Haven’t looked at him too much, but that scouting report sounds like a very “Oilers” fit… and he might fit the “hard on the puck” mold that Chiarelli talks about.

  84. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    frjohnk,

    Where do you get the ratings /5? Could you put up a link?

  85. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Click on the player’s name in that TSN list, and you get a more detailed account of that player.

  86. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Ugh…

    COMPETE LEVEL IS NOT A THING

    It’s like the time I heard someone use the term Sticktoitiveness in a formal presentation at University..

    I was already inclined to write off Button’s opinions, and now my slight inclination is moving towards maximum notgiveashittitude.

  87. admiralmark says:

    Factotum:
    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Don’t know who EDM will take at 16 but did have multiple other scouts suggest EDM should be looking at RUS G Samsonov, No. 19 on our list.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Samsonov perceived by many as foundation/building block stopper, like Vasilevsky in TB, and EDM doesn’t have one. Need patience, tho.

    I think I would puke if this was the pick at 16.

  88. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Ugh…
    COMPETE LEVEL IS NOT A THING

    Irregardless, it’s fewer letters than ‘competitiveness’! 😉

  89. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Competitivity?

  90. admiralmark says:

    Anyone on this board going to the Black Frog pub in Vancouver for the Draft Party on June 26th?

  91. Factotum says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Irregardless, it’s fewer letters than ‘competitiveness’!

    This wins the thread!

  92. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    admiralmark:
    Anyone on this board going to the Black Frog pub in Vancouver for the Draft Party on June 26th?

    Looking for a Calgary draft party down here…

  93. Rondo says:

    Take Zboril at #16 and move up in the draft with your #33 + ? = Samsonov

  94. 719 says:

    Since Samsanov didn’t even bother to come to the combine won’t his stock drop? I would imagine russian factor/no combine/goalies are voodo means he would be available at 33.

  95. Jon K says:

    I think it would be a shame if the Oilers passed on Evgeny Svechnikov at #16 in order to draft for need (D or G).

    I don’t see how he doesn’t go ahead of other prospects like Konecny, White or Merkley.

    Size, speed, skill, “tough”, and a decent two-way player. His numbers as a 16/17 year old in the MHL are fantastic, and he led his QMJHL team in scoring and +/- as a 17/18 year old rookie. If we take into account the effect of being a rookie on his CHL numbers, he arguably should be in the conversation with Barzal, Zacha, and Crouse. He’s listed at 6’3″ and 205 lbs.

    I’m interested to know the justification for Button and others having him so low.

    Eliteprospects:

    “Incredibly skilled offensive winger. Has a remarkably accurate shot to go along with some magic hands. Could be better defensively, but his game is based around his acute sense of what is happening on the ice in the offensive zone. All-in-all, a deadly player who possesses good size, elite-level skill, and smooth skating. (Curtis Joe, EP 2014)”

    McKenzie & Button:

    “Evgeny is a multi-faceted winger who is as capable of finishing a play as he is making one. A strong skater who threatens defenders and creates chances with an explosive step but can back them off and use space to make a play. He’s difficult to defend because he can beat you in multiple ways. Closer to NHL than most players.”

    Of course, LT wrote on him here:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/4/8/how-good-is-evgeny-svechnikov

  96. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    Just listening to hour 1 of the Lowdown. At around 30:00 minutes the statement is made, with respect to Lawson Crouse, “he’s the one thing in the top 6 the Oilers don’t have”.

    A while ago a few of us said his best comparable, league wide, might be Benoit Pouliot.

    Last time I checked we have one of those.

  97. stephen sheps says:

    I know I haven’t posted in a while – I’ve been hanging out and reading as always, but this is really the dog days of the offseason as far as I’m concerned,

    Or it was until that Cathal Kelly fellow decided to attack. My new writing partner and I wrote a response, and while Staples’ piece is better, here’s what we did. (Thanks in advance LT!)

    *Spam Alert*

    http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.ca/2015/06/delusions-are-mistake.html

  98. Woodguy says:

    Jon K,

    Does it concern you that he’s a late 96?

    Gotta ding him a bit for that.

    On the other hand you give him a bit more because this is his rookie CHL season and Euros coming over generally don’t show what they can do until year two due to language/acclimation issues and he put up a 1.41 pts/gm this year as a rookie.

    Interesting prospect.

  99. Doug McLachlan says:

    Love Bob’s list, even if it isn’t a Mock Draft.

    Fascinating to see where Kylington is selected (please let him slip to #33).

    It is always hard to pull the trigger on a goalie in the first round and strongly suspect that the Oilers pass on taking Samsonov at #16 but I will be curious to see where he is picked and if history proves him to be the cream of the crop.

    On the topic of an Offer Sheet to Hamilton. Love it. Won’t be the Oilers to do it, sadly. That said, can absolutely see Buffalo making an offer. If that is enough to spring Chara free in a salary dump trade, I would be very interested.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    Just listening to hour 1 of the Lowdown.At around 30:00 minutes the statement is made, with respect to Lawson Crouse, “he’s the one thing in the top 6 the Oilers don’t have”.

    A while ago a few of us said his best comparable, league wide, might be Benoit Pouliot.

    Last time I checked we have one of those.

    That was Dustin Nielson. Dusty isn’t the biggest Pouliot fan.

  101. Lowetide says:

    OaklandishOil:
    Extremely long time lurker, first time poster.

    Excited for the move to Bakersfield.My wife’s family is from close to there and my daughter is going to college there in the fall.I plan on making lots of visits that coincide with Condor home stands.I’m secretly hoping that the oiler braintrust thinks that Connor McDavid should start in the AHL so I can see him a little closer to home (I live in oakland, ca).Ah well, at least I should hopefully get to see Nurse and the German before they get called up.

    The Padre hotel is a great place to stay and for food, either go cheap and get taquiria food (when in California, eat as many tacos and burritos as possible), or if you are feeling a bit fancy, Valentien’s is our favorite restaurant there.

    Lowetide and the rest of the regular posters, thank you for bringing a little civilization to Oiler’s conversation and teaching a far away fan a ton about the team I’ve followed since I was 7.

    BTW, as a SoCal beach kid, I would be remiss if I didn’t chide you for putting surf and Bakersfield in the same post.Unless the big one happens and half of California slides into the ocean,Surfing and Bakersfield should never go together. :)

    Welcome! Yes, surf’s up is a little cheeky but I liked it placed against the photo. I have been to Long Beach (2.5 hours away?) but don’t know the area at all. DID know it was inland quite a ways, but I can’t keep quoting Buck Owens! 🙂

  102. misfit says:

    Early Christmas indeed. Not only that, but I just got my copy of the Red Line Report delivered to my inbox a few minutes ago.

    Redline sure likes Roy a lot more than the scouts McKenzie polled. They have him at 11 (one ahead of Werenski).

    They also have Samsonov as a 1st rounder, but not the 1st goalie on their list. That honour goes to Matej Tomek who is rated a spot earlier (23 and 22 respectively).

  103. Evilas says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    I would be in for a Cowtown draft location, name the spot!

  104. stephen sheps says:

    I take back my previous dog days of the offseason remark, forgetting of course that the draft bible was released today. Lots of great discussion. Thanks Padre for posting all of the info on relevant D-men.

    Having watched and defended Crouse as often as I have, I feel ever so slightly vindicated that Bobby Mac has him at #7, even though I do believe that’s a touch high.

    Agree with the sentiment about doing something with 16 &/or 33 for G and D help, either by using the picks or trading.

    My (admittedly small, worthless, student-debt-ridden) kingdom for Talbot or Gibson….

  105. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    The love for Samsonov boggles my mind. Elite prospects http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=277797 shows all of 35 games. Basically, he has had 10-15 good games in tournaments and was the top goalie at U18.

    He was the second keeper drafted in the KHL IN 2014 and his MHL SA% of .918 doesn’t scream elite.

    That’s a pretty big sample size warning to ignore if you are using a high draft pick.

    Unfortunately, all draft age goalies have limited stats but his are even smaller and with the warnings above, caveat emptor.

    Of course, scouts can judge things like positioning, rebounds and refexes, because saw him good has to be considered with limited stats.

    Many are questioning Talbot’s sample size as a reason not to use a high pick to obtain him.

  106. Doug McLachlan says:

    misfit,

    Don’t know if you, or others, have read this piece on Blue Bullet about drafting goalies but it makes for a good read.

    https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/

    The take away is unless you have a bonafide stud, say a Carey Price, stear clear of selecting even the top ranked goalies in the first round. That said, they have great value (as compared to success rate vis-à-vis other positions) in the second round.

    On that point, one of the things Bobbie Mac notes in the article attached to his rankings is that every player in his top 45 had at least one scout putting that player into the first round.

    Of the 10 scouts surveyed by Bob, there are only two goalies who make someone’s list as a first round pick: Samsonov (at 19) and Mackenzie Blackburn (at 34).

    As for Matej Tomek, on Bob’s list he’s ranked as the 6th best goalie (67th overall).

    Goalies = voodoo.

  107. B S says:

    stephen sheps,

    Nice response. I haven’t read Coopers latest (nor want to), but my typical response to those who make fun of Edmonton is along the lines of:

    Yes it’s cold, windy and has long winters. It’s also full of honest hardworking people. It has a beautiful summer (for about a month) with cultural festivals, music festivals, large parks, and lots of sunshine. In the winter it has skiing, outdoor skating, snow-shoeing, tobogganing (apparently this is illegal in most municipalities in North America); you know, Canadian things. I’m personally of the opinion that if you don’t like winter sports and recreation you shouldn’t be living in Canada, so making fun of a Canadian city for have snow and cold seems a bit unpatriotic.

    We don’t call in the army when it snows, hell we don’t even plow the damned streets. The cops don’t shoot civilians (not saying all cops are bad, or edmonton cops are good, but I haven’t heard of this happening in Edmonton for a long time) and the gangs don’t shoot up restaurants in broad day light.

    There are radio stations that things other than country, decent work, affordable housing, and the money you save by not living in Toronto or Vancouver can go to vacations to much nicer places.

    I’ve visited Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver, London, Berlin, and numerous other cities in North America. It isn’t even close to the same as living there (something those who cover hockey should keep in mind, since they only get to Edmonton a few times during the winter), but of those cities Ottawa was by far the most enjoyable, with London being second. Vancouver was dirty, Montreal was snooty, and Toronto was…well, boring. Don’t even get me started on cowtown, the only city that can get just as cold, and gets more snow than Edmonton.

  108. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Based on the picture of Adin Hill at EP http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=62230 you’ve got to wonder why some people think the net should be larger.

  109. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: picture of Adin Hill

    Yikes! It looks like his shoulder pads start at his ears, and go outwards from there!

  110. B S says:

    On topic, I have a friend from Bakersfield, I’ve already given her the heads up that the farm team there should be a step up from the ECHL team that was there before and should win a bunch of games (although does anyone know whether Buchberger is still coaching it?).

    I’m really hoping Drai gets sent down, as it stands the Oilers have nearly enough forward depth to at least fill the roster with legitimate NHLers, not sure that’s going to happen for Nurse on Defense.

  111. B S says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan,

    shrink the goalie equipment first, focusing on width, not length of pads.

  112. Магия 10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: That said, they have great value (as compared to success rate vis-à-vis other positions) in the second round.

    Blue Bullet touts the results for goalies selected from 31-80 as beating the track record for other positions. So at first blush that’s all 6 goalies in Bobby Mac’s consensus top 75, but not in the first round unless you’ve got very solid evidence. And in the last 2 rounds Euro goalers may also autoperform the alternatives.

  113. stephen sheps says:

    B S,

    Thanks for the kind words (and for reading our crap!).

    I’ve lived in quite a few places in Canada (not to mention the middle east for a time), and while Toronto is where I live now, Edmonton will always be home. I couldn’t believe Kelly’s article when I read it.

  114. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Bakersfield has a district called Oildale. Perfect.

  115. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Draft party in Santa Fe anyone? Pursuing the dream and re-starting on the bottom rung as an intern at the photography school there. From being an Executive Director and head of a desk at a big Wall Street firm to this. Excited and petrified at the same time. Bit like what some of these kids must be feeling like heading into draft day. Wish them all good luck.

    This draft is shaping up to be very deep. If Kylington slips to 2nd round he could be a steal. Happy if Talbot is grabbed for a 2nd but it will hurt if Oliver is still on the board then and the Rangers grab him with our 33rd.

  116. Lowetide says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    The love for Samsonov boggles my mind.Elite prospects http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=277797 shows all of 35 games.Basically, he has had 10-15good games intournaments and was the top goalie at U18.

    He was the second keeper drafted in the KHL IN 2014 and his MHL SA% of .918 doesn’t scream elite.

    That’s a pretty big sample size warning to ignore if you are using a high draft pick.

    Unfortunately, all draft age goalies have limited stats but his are even smaller and with the warnings above, caveat emptor.

    Of course, scouts can judge things like positioning, rebounds and refexes, because saw him good has to be considered with limited stats.

    Many are questioning Talbot’s sample size as a reason not to use a high pick to obtain him.

    I’m miles from a goalie expert, but agree. I think Samsanov may be an outstanding goalie prospect but the numbers don’t suggest it.

  117. Bank Shot says:

    Supposedly Kari Lehtonen is available for 30 cents on the dollar.

    Oilers should be looking at that.

  118. TheOrangeDesk says:

    I have no idea how a team can justify picking a goalie in the top 45. they are just so unpredictable at 18 years old. The jump from junior to AHL to NHL for a goalie just seems too difficult for 90% of them

  119. wheatnoil says:

    stephen sheps:
    I know I haven’t posted in a while – I’ve been hanging out and reading as always, but this is really the dog days of the offseason as far as I’m concerned,

    Or it was until that Cathal Kelly fellow decided to attack. My new writing partner and I wrote a response, and while Staples’ piece is better, here’s what we did. (Thanks in advance LT!)

    *Spam Alert*

    http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.ca/2015/06/delusions-are-mistake.html

    Thanks for this! I don’t always defend Edmonton when people slag it. Sometimes I just shrug, because they clearly don’t get it. However, I’m glad you did. It’s worth defending. Especially from the likes of Toronto.

    I don’t know if McDavid will like my fair hometown. Maybe he’d prefer some place warmer or some place with more high-rises. I do hope, though, he finds the beauty in it that I found. In the people, in the surrounding areas, in the way a warm summer day is like heaven on Earth, in the way every tree gets lined with frost when the temperature dips in the Fall, in the way the cold can bring people together over a warm drink (or a cold one), in the way there’s a lack of pretension, in the energy that courses through the city during a playoff run… which will be all the sweeter after waiting this long.

    I hope, no matter if he spends his whole career in Edmonton or not, that he finds it the way I find it, even though I’ve moved on to a new city. I hope he finds it a home.

    Welcome, Conner! The sun’s out. We’ve got a beer waiting for you. And we’ve got another one.

  120. OaklandishOil says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you LT and Pouzar!

    I’m there a few times a year, so if anybody needs some advice on the lovely town of Baketopia, let me know. As for Oildale, probably want to stay away from there unless you enjoy meth and all the joy it brings. Stay downtown, see a show at the Fox or the Crystal Palace, and then go watch the future at the arena.

  121. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bank Shot,

    Where did you hear/read this about Lehtonen? Big Finnish goaltenders always get a second look from me.

  122. Doug McLachlan says:

    Магия 10,

    Yes, picks 31-80. I said second round but really meant it to imply AFTER the first.

    The late round Euro “fishing expeditions” are interesting too but for the Oilers I think we have that covered with E2.

  123. commonfan14 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: If Kylington slips to 2nd round he could be a steal.

    I hesitate to type this, but…

    I’ve been much higher on Kylington since I saw his picture today. Hate to say it, but the hockey world sometimes has a bad habit of being quick and overly severe in knocking black players for “character” issues.

    Made me re-evaluate how fair it might be that his stock is falling.

  124. misfit says:

    Bank Shot:
    Supposedly Kari Lehtonen is available for 30 cents on the dollar.

    Oilers should be looking at that.

    Yeah, I could handle Lehtonen at $1.77M. At full price, they’d have to sweeten the pot a little.

  125. sliderule says:

    B S,

    Winnipeg is much colder,Ottawa has about same average monthly temperatures Minneapolis has marginally warmer winters.

    Buffalo gets multiple feet more snow ,Boston just set a record for snowfall .Columbus is gray and alternately rain and snow.

    Montreal and Toronto are warmer but it’s still a Canadian winter.

    Vancouver is grey and raining with very little sun.

    Detroit is bankrupt and a mostly a ghetto.

    Chicago is Detroit without the bankruptcy and ghettos.

    If you want to play hockey and avoid winter you have to head south were most folks don’t give a damn about game.

  126. spoiler says:

    sliderule: Chicago is Detroit without the bankruptcy and ghettos.

    That’s only because they haven’t filed yet.

  127. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Eichel clearly disappointed to not be going to Edmonton: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGw3nWbUkAAWL8t.jpg:large

  128. Bank Shot says:

    misfit: Yeah, I could handle Lehtonen at $1.77M.At full price, they’d have to sweeten the pot a little.

    If you want to get an established goalie you have to pay a salary.

    If you want to pull an Oilers and trot out inexperienced guys year in and year out and get burned time and time again you can pay $1.7 millions.

  129. stephen sheps says:

    commonfan14,

    Indeed;

    See Ho-Sang, Josh.

    The race issue is something I’m working kinda seriously on in my professional life. Hopefully I’ll have something big to share with all of you in approx. 3.5 years, though in many ways I’d much prefer to be wrong. Now if I could just find a permanent faculty position somewhere…

  130. spoiler says:

    Joey Veleno was granted exceptional status by Hockey Canada last night. Will enter the QMJHL draft as a 15 yo.

    4 teams interviewed Connor McDavid this week. Buffalo was not one of them.

    Like Bob’s list, but Samsonov at 19 is quite stunning. If Kylington can Saad his way down to 33 that would be quite a coup.

  131. Marc says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Follow

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    Quick note on “fallers.” Brandon Saad was pre-season Top 10 in his draft year, fell to 2nd rd on draft day. Pretty good player. No, great.

    David Musil was also a pre-season Top 10 in his draft year, fell to 2nd rd on draft day.

    FWIW

  132. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    wheatnoil: Welcome, Conner! The sun’s out. We’ve got a beer waiting for you. And we’ve got another one.

    He’ll have to check with Gary Roberts first, to see if that’s okay.

    and it’s Connor…

  133. Bank Shot says:

    Marc: David Musil was also a pre-season Top 10 in his draft year, fell to 2nd rd on draft day.

    FWIW

    Wasn’t Johan Motin a projected 1st rounder as well? And Toni Rajala got a lot of hype predraft.

    Lots of fallers fall for a reason.

  134. eidy says:

    Mckenzie list in the morning, redline PDF at 2 pm, looks like I got Friday night plans after all:-)

    My poor, poor wife…..

  135. wheatnoil says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): and it’s Connor…

    Damn it!

    I was going to write something about Cooper and decided to change it to something positive and got slipped up.

    Well, I ruined it guys. Guess we should draft Eichal.

  136. Rondo says:

    1. Connor McDavid- EDM
    2. Jack Eichel-BUFF
    3. Dylan Strome-ARZ
    4. Mitchell Marner-TOR
    5. Noah Hanifin-CAR
    6. Matthew Barzal-NJ
    7. Lawson Crouse-PHIL
    8. Ivan Provorov-COLU
    9. Pavel Zacha-SJ
    10.Zach Werenski-COL
    11 Mikko Rantanen-FL
    12.Kyle Connor-DAL
    13.Timo Meier-LA
    14.Travis Konecny/ ColinWhite/Evgeny Svechnikov-BOST
    15.Travis Konecny /ColinWhite/Evgeny Svechnikov-CAL
    16. Jakub Zboril/Chabot/Svechnikov-EDM

  137. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Luck isn’t needed, assume you made a move for the right reasons. I’m envious, I haven’t built up the courage to leave big oil and work at a bike shop wrenching bikes and listening to punk after hours.

    Trading with Slats will always feel like a bad hangover.

    Santa Fe, never been but I will ride that area someday.

  138. square_wheels says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),
    I will host a draft party in YYC, it will have a piñata that looks exactly like that kid that had the faux Kiprisoff beard that always hung out behind the flames net. We’ll beat it to pieces like the Office Space fax machine screaming MCJESUS FUCKERS WOOOOOoOOoOOOoT!

    And maybe I’ll share my bourbon.

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

  139. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bank Shot,

    Thanks. Interesting but not the guy I’d target.

  140. v4ance says:

    slopitch,

    New Compensation rules:

    Less than $1,205,377 …..Nothing
    $1,205,377-to-$1,826,328 ….Third-round pick
    $1,826,328-to-$3,652,659 …. Second-round pick
    $3,652,659-to-$5,478,986 ….. First and third-round picks
    $5,478,986-to-$7,305,316 ….. First, second and third-round picks
    $7,305,316-to-$9,131,645 ….. Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
    $9,131,645 or greater …. Four first-round picks

    SO to give up 4 first rounders, we’d have to offer over $9.13M AAV for Hamiltion. The good part is that we could offer exactly $7.3 million and only have to give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

    DocFan,

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mirtle-why-the-nhls-salary-cap-may-stay-almost-flat-next-year/article24800206/

    To summarize, the lower oil prices drove down the Canadian dollar and since Rogers pays the NHL in Canadian dollars, league revenue actually shrunk since players are paid in US dollars. The cap will be in a range of $68-$71 million. If they agree to a compromise and add only 2.5%, the cap only goes to $69.5 million but if they can’t negotiate a mutually agreeable number, a default 5% is added and the cap goes to $71 million next season.

    When discussing the cap 2 years ago in January during the lockout, I said it was foolish of the negotiating parties to always assume moderate growth. Even though the period of 2006-2012 saw ~12% annualized revenue increases, I said it was irrational to assume past growth would exactly predict future performance. Now the 5% inflator is actually hurting the players with a ballooning escrow when they actually pushed for an even higher number (7%) during the bargaining.

    To take a step back and explain what’s happening, the CBA mandates that the league and players split revenue 50/50. WIth a $69 million cap per team and 30 teams, that works out to 69×30=$2.07 billion which is the player’s 50% share of PROJECTED total of $4.14 Billion of total league revenue.

    Why the escrow?

    Well, ACTUAL league revenues are actually only $3.52 Billion and so the players were only supposed to get 1.76 billion but they had to set a cap number based on the future projections last June. $3.52 billion is only 85% of the projected $4.14 billion revenue so the players have to give back the 15% in escrow so that the NHL gets their fair 50% share.

    The cap inflator was a way to “bake” in guaranteed raises to the players but the situation now is that the money guaranteed to the players in cap money exceeds what they should be paid in a true 50/50. If the cap matched the EXACT league revenues, the cap would only be around $60 million this past season but that’s the problem with trying to budget ahead every year and having multiple years where the cap projection is much higher than true revenues.

  141. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    I think we have reached a point in the pro hockey economy where the industry has aged to the point that are no unexploited markets.

    Now success comes down to draft position, luck and having some vision as to the state of the game.

    Teams have trouble drafting goalies and defense but I am not convinced it’s on the players. It’s on teams not being impartial and looking at the wrong traits.

    Many of the best goalies were first round. One was an Oiler. Lundqvist was 7 but Europe isn’t a freebie anymore. Or college.

    The team is to the rafters in elite centres, forwards and left D. Few players maintain quality off wing. Trades are very hard. It’s a deep draft interchangeable from 11-45 according to the Bobfather (awesome WG) . Right hand D and a goalie with the top 3 unless a good trade is possible for a better pick or current young quality player, for me.

  142. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    It just occurred to me, perhaps scouting isn’t organized well. They go by region, but that was based on car travel. They should have scouts work by player position and hire more per area if travel is too much. Scouting is irrelevant in a team’s budget and is at the top of the list for importance.

  143. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    And now for something completely different …

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/im-kind-of-an-expert-in-your-field/

  144. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    And now for something completely different …

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/im-kind-of-an-expert-in-your-field/

    This made me chuckle.

  145. frjohnk says:

    More from war on ice looking at “High Danger Chance Data”

    I looked at how San Jose did from 09-10 in the category “On Ice High Danger Scoring Chance per 60 minutes when on the power play.

    San Jose’s PP ranked first in
    10-11
    11-12
    13-14
    14-15

    they were 2nd in
    09-10
    12-13

    in generating high scoring chances per 60 minutes on the PP

    These are the 10 players that played the most for McLellan

    Joe.Thornton
    Patrick.Marleau
    Joe.Pavelski
    Dan.Boyle
    Logan.Couture
    Brent.Burns
    Dany.Heatley
    Ryane.Clowe
    Jason.Demers
    Marc-Edouard.Vlasic
    Devin.Setoguchi

    I love the thought of McLellan’s PP with the oilers forwards, but the oilers need someone like a Boyle or a Burns on the backend and the PP will be dynamite.

  146. GCW_69 says:

    Factotum:
    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Don’t know who EDM will take at 16 but did have multiple other scouts suggest EDM should be looking at RUS G Samsonov, No. 19 on our list.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie22m22 minutes ago
    Samsonov perceived by many as foundation/building block stopper, like Vasilevsky in TB, and EDM doesn’t have one. Need patience, tho.

    And Woodguy’s head explodes….

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