SCREAMING TARGETS: CAM TALBOT

Peter Chiarelli’s first weeks as Oilers GM are progressing as expected, small signings and tertiary, one line stories that don’t really move the needle. Andrew Miller signed, Todd Nelson is free to find a new church, that kind of thing. Yesterday’s Dougie Hamilton rumor gets the blood running and puts a skip in the step but the build toward draft day and free agency is on a slow, relaxed pace.

I follow Murray Pam for Ottawa Senators stuff, would guess he has a credible source somewhere in hockey. This isn’t surprising but it does lend credence to what we have been hearing: Peter Chiarelli is shopping in the right spots.

WHAT IS THIS GOING TO COST?

First, Sather’s a jackal. Seriously. Loved it when he was Oilers GM (unless Ron Low was calling someone a checker/inconsistent scorer) but am very uncomfortable about the return. Edmonton needs a signed Cam Talbot—he’s UFA in 2016—but can’t get that until after July 1. We’ve talked previously about a gentleman’s agreement, but ladies there’s a reason they say ‘get it in writing’ and this is such a case.

There’s been plenty written about the cost of a starting goalie, everything from the pick at No. 16 to a third-round selection. I think a trade with the NYR is going to be complicated by:

  • Sather the jackal
  • Oilers like other Rangers like JT Miller
  • Rangers are looking for depth
  • Rangers cap issues mean they’re going to try to dump Klein or Boyle.

The trade has the potential to turn into a blockbuster (Talbot, Miller, Klein) with the Rangers looking for inexpensive depth (Edmonton has lots of inexpensive players, the quality is an issue). The major item in favor of Slats is the one thing he brings to every damn negotiation: Indifference to the outcome of the negotiation. It’s galling but that’s what he does. Sather will wait to the deadline if necessary, he’ll move other pieces, he’ll do things on his own timeline. The Rangers may decide that Talbot is needed to sweeten a Nash trade, so that player may not move until he’s good and ready.

When a team gets squeezed, and Chiarelli is a veteran GM so he’s used and been used in this way, there’s a breaking point where the offer is increased or sweetened. My guess is we end up with a trade that involves:

  • Two Oilers draft picks (this year’s second, No. 33, plus a second next season)
  • An inexpensive forward heading to NYC
  • Oilers get Talbot
  • Oilers get Miller or Klein

That’s my guess. It’s never simple with Slats, he’s always looking for a home run. And there’s every chance the inexpensive forward ask from the Rangers will be someone like Yakimov. Sather. is. a. jackal. and that’s for sure.

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137 Responses to "SCREAMING TARGETS: CAM TALBOT"

  1. Younger Oil says:

    Klein is a real good defender on a decent contract. Would love to see him and Talbot come here.

    33 and Yakimov is a dear price, I’m a huge Yakimov fan, but I just might do that deal. Fills two big holes.

    My ideal deal would be Talbot and a conditional 2016 3rd for the 33rd OV and a conditional 2016 4th.

    We get the conditional 3rd if we can’t re-sign Talbot, they get the conditional 4th if we do re-sign him.

  2. anonymous says:

    Klein seems like excess. Is he better than Fayne?

  3. Ben says:

    I’d be targeting Staal with Talbot, before the former’s long-term contract kicks in. Yak and 33? 16?

  4. D says:

    Unless he is Oilers’ GM, trading with Sather is a bad idea.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Seems like Backstrom is making it difficult for the Wild to sign Dubnyk. Going on LTIR and will start the season there. I guess we will know shortly how much does Dubnyk want to stay with the Wild

  6. v4ance says:

    Someone asked a few days ago what time the Entry Draft was starting. It was a little hard to find but it’s in the Panthers’ NHL website under the Draft FAQ. http://panthers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=105787

    Draft starts 7 pm on June 26th and they just do the first round. Second round starts 10 am the next morning.

  7. OF17 says:

    anonymous:
    Klein seems like excess. Is he better than Fayne?

    He’s certainly better offensively. Not sure defensively. But he’d be a pretty solid, cheap addition.

  8. Hammers says:

    Klein maybe the type of player that fills a need right now . Not a top pairing D but a fit for next year . Gives the decision makers a year to sort things out . They still have to decide in game situations what they have as related to what this coach wants to do . Leon and Nurse ,Yak and the other 2 Russian AHL players. Simpson and the 16 th pick . Sometimes you can rush yourself into wrong decisions . I for one would give them a year to sort this out especially with what comes off the books this year and next I would also look at Lack if his leaving the Canucks . One thing for sure there is no cup in Edmonton next year so do it the smartest way .

  9. McJesus says:

    Lowetide
    In the scenario you described, would you prefer giving up Yakimov and 33rd, or Give up the the 16th pick..
    Either way, it is disappointing, but you have to give to get, and I’d like to think our centre depth is good for the next handful of years.

  10. Hammers says:

    Not sure but if I’m correct we have $25 million in savings this and next year when combined . That is without an increase in the cap next year . Making the right decisions over the next 15 months tells us if we are a top team again or once again being run by inept decision makers . Starts now with this draft in my opinion .

  11. czar says:

    There’s been rumors of Sather handing over the GM duties for a few months now, as an Oiler fan I’d rather see PC swing a deal with Jeff Gorton than the Jackal.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/glen-sather-out-as-new-york-rangers-general-manager-192406920.html

  12. anonymous says:

    OF17,
    Maybe going Carolina circa ’06 on defence is the way to go. Another veteren puck moving defenceman and it’s done. Have to drop Shultz.

  13. Lowetide says:

    McJesus:
    Lowetide
    In the scenario you described, would you prefer giving up Yakimov and 33rd, or Give up the the 16th pick..
    Either way, it is disappointing, but you have to give to get, and I’d like to think our centre depth is good for the next handful of years.

    Yakimov and 33 but it’s all noxious.

  14. godot10 says:

    With goaltenders, there is less risk trading for a goaltender in his last contract year, because there are typically less options for goaltenders in free agency, and if the fit is right for the player and the team, it is in the best interests of the goaltender to sign

    i.e. Seabrook never, because Seabrook knows he can go to market. Talbot, I can live with the risk.

    I think the Rangers might prefer moving Boyle than Klein. Boyle might be willing to play for McLellan.

    Talbot and Boyle for #33 and Marincin. Marty ain’t going to clear waivers. Then go out and sign UFA Paul Martin.

    Martin, Fayne
    Klefbom, Boyle
    Davidson, Schultz
    Ference, Nikitin

  15. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Most Ranger fans I’ve talked to have not been very happy with Klein.

    Curious to see what the Lowetidians say.

  16. cc says:

    I think that a deal could be worked out with Marincin and Talbot as the main moving parts. I would hate to lose Marincin. (I think he could be a legit top 4)
    But if Talbot cream of the crop, he’ll rise to the top.
    Or better yet maybe he’s a terminator, like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
    Which will cause us to get out of our seats and jump around.

  17. jake70 says:

    I am really thinking that patience is the key here (yeah the operative word the last 2500 days or so) …. Chiarelli has the “luxury” of seeing this thing for a year with little chance of blowback from the fanbase. I like Bold but not Bold of the gambling kind. Upgrade D and G on short term if you can, see what the forwards can do, and then go nuts next trade deadline or offseason.

    Now if some GM comes off his meds for a day and gives you the Corleone offer, then by all means.

  18. Ben says:

    Chiarellie should ABSOLUTELY go after Vaselevsky. Great team player. There’s no ‘I’ in ‘Vaselevsky’.

  19. Dashingsilverfox says:

    There’s an excellent chance the Oilers could pick up Eddie Lack for the 33rd pick and not have to include any other assets.

    That’s the smart play.

    Remember Chiarelli and Benning have a well established relationship.

  20. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    If I was Vancouver I’d be selling Miller hard this summer. He’s not what he once was and he’s still just as expensive. The Nucks are going to need Lack in a year or two. I don’t think they’ll be parting with him.

  21. frjohnk says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    If I was Vancouver I’d be selling Miller hard this summer. He’s not what he once was and he’s still just as expensive. The Nucks are going to need Lack in a year or two. I don’t think they’ll be parting with him.

    Nucks would have to take a bad contract back if they want to trade Miller.

    Lack for a second round pick. Yeah. But it’s the 57th.

    It’s a buyers market for goalies.

  22. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Uncle Pete won’t need a year to know who the players he wants to keep are, that’s the domain of those who don’t know what they are looking at or are wrong.

    The only reason he doesn’t revamp is he can’t find the deal or chat up a free agent. Eg. Roy was a lock until MacT got collared. No disrespect to Roy but that was not going to work just like Nikitin wasn’t because he hadn’t played well in 2 plus years.

  23. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    If I was Vancouver I’d be selling Miller hard this summer. He’s not what he once was and he’s still just as expensive. The Nucks are going to need Lack in a year or two. I don’t think they’ll be parting with him.

    I doubt they can move Miller with 2 years left at $6M.

    But they do have to make a move this summer since Lack has only 1 year left until UFA and Markstrom won’t be able to clear waivers next season.

    They also have highly regarded Thatcher Demko in the system who, along with Joacim Erickson and Joe Cannata, gives them tremendous depth at G.

    As for Lack, there’s already lots of speculation the Canucks ARE shopping him.

  24. Dashingsilverfox says:

    frjohnk: Nucks would have to take a bad contract back if they want to trade Miller.

    Lack for a second round pick. Yeah. But it’s the 57th.

    It’s a buyers market for goalies.

    The Canucks will easily get a better offer than 57th for Lack.

  25. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    A team can’t get better employing people that can’t hold their own and bleed CA.

  26. Eastern Oil says:

    cc:
    I think that a deal could be worked out with Marincin and Talbot as the main moving parts.I would hate to lose Marincin.(I think he could be a legit top 4)
    But if Talbot cream of the crop, he’ll rise to the top.
    Or better yet maybe he’s a terminator, like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
    Which will cause us to get out of our seats and jump around.

    Your name, and you song quote, makes me want to go back and brush off my Dance Mix CD’s

  27. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yakimov and 33 but it’s all noxious.

    Sather’s m.o. in trades isn’t only to win the deal, but often leaves behind an anchor.

    Instead of Klein I fear Boyle or *ugh* Girardi.

    If Sather signed FA’s an 1/8 as well as he trades he’s have 2 more Cups.

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’d like to note that, at the time of moving from Nashville to NYR, the entire bloody Internet was having a screaming fit about how bad Klein was and how bad that contract was.

  29. jake70 says:

    Ha, Eichel gives Cherry the USA shirt for all his “support”.

  30. Ray says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    There’s an excellent chance the Oilers could pick up Eddie Lack for the 33rd pick and not have to include any other assets.

    That’s the smart play.

    Remember Chiarelli and Benning have a well established relationship.

    I tend to agree. Also might have been you or I read it elsewhere, do you think Benning would have interest in taking Gordon in that swap.

    Would Gordon add value to that trade?(I’d think yes)

    Is Gordon and the 57th more valuable than the 33rd?

  31. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I agree they have to make a move. I also agree with the comment that its a buyers market for goalies.

    I didn’t say it would be easy to move Miller but they’ve got to try. I bet they’re shopping Lack to see what they can get for him but I don’t rate him at the top of the goalies available list and he doesn’t have the cache that some of the other names have and he’s not got the track record of guys like Niemi.. He might get more than the 57th but I’d be surprised if he fetched a pick in the 30s.

  32. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy or others, did your goalie analysis include Lack? If so, how did he fare?

  33. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ray: I tend to agree. Also might have been you or I read it elsewhere, do you think Bennington would have interest in taking Gordon in that swap.

    Would Gordon add value to that trade?(I’d think yes)

    Is Gordon and the 57th more valuable than the 33rd?

    I’m not sure Gordon would be of much interest.

    Behind Henrik Sedin they have Bo Horvat (a great rookie season) and Nick Bonino at C as well as Cole Cassels and Jared McCann on the way.

    The Canucks are trying to get younger and faster so I don’t think Boyd Gordon, especially at $3 million, would even be in the conversation.

  34. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    I agree they have to make a move. I also agree with the comment that its a buyers market for goalies.

    I didn’t say it would be easy to move Miller but they’ve got to try. I bet they’re shopping Lack to see what they can get for him but I don’t rate him at the top of the goalies available list and he doesn’t have the cache that some of the other names have and he’s not got the track record of guys like Niemi.. He might get more than the 57th but I’d be surprised if he fetched a pick in the 30s.

    Lack is ready to be a #1G.

    Picking one up for a second round pick is a steal.

  35. Yak2 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Klein is a real good defender on a decent contract. Would love to see him and Talbot come here.

    33 and Yakimov is a dear price, I’m a huge Yakimov fan, but I just might do that deal. Fills two big holes.

    My ideal deal would be Talbot and a conditional 2016 3rd for the 33rd OV and a conditional 2016 4th.

    We get the conditional 3rd if we can’t re-sign Talbot, they get the conditional 4th if we do re-sign him.

    Yeah, no thank you to giving up Yakimov. Give them Khaira or Moroz or Kessy or Gernat or Musil. Yakimov, to me, is a keeper. We need size in our lineup, he and Draisaitl give that plus he’s a Center, so NO THANK YOU

  36. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I said between 57 and 40 (I’d be surprised if he fetched a pick in the 30s) which is a second rounder. I’m not totally sold on him as a starter but I’m not totally sold on most goalies.

    Its just bad timing for Vancouver to be selling this year. Next summer would probably be better and he’d probably get more.

  37. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    I said between 57 and 40 (I’d be surprised if he fetched a pick in the 30s) which is a second rounder. I’m not totally sold on him as a starter but I’m not totally sold on most goalies.

    Its just bad timing for Vancouver to be selling this year. Next summer would probably be better and he’d probably get more.

    We’ll see very shortly.

  38. Snowman says:

    Toews nickname should be Captain Scores When You Need One.

  39. G Money says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy or others, did your goalie analysis include Lack? If so, how did he fare?

    I can’t remember if WG looked at him.

    I calculated L/M/H sv% when compared to the rest of the league, and Lack came in at Elite, Elite, and Average to Slightly Below respectively. (To translate that, it means he’s in the 80th to 90th percentile on the first two, and the 40th to 50th percentile on the latter one).

    I also took a different tack at looking at a handful of goalies using cumulative sv%. I didn’t include Lack in my dataset (you could say it was lacking, buddump bump, groan), but TheGreatMutato used the methodology to look at Mason and Lack (posted in the comments section).

    He looks excellent by both measures, and though there’s less data than you’d like, I think that would very likely solve most of the Oilers goaltending woes for many years.

    I think a second round pick for Lack would be a good deal for both sides BUT you have to remember that Lack, like Talbot, is UFA in a year.

    So I think a good deal would be to make the pick conditional – if the Oilers can extend Lack, the pick is the 33rd, but if they don’t, it’s the 57th.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy or others, did your goalie analysis include Lack? If so, how did he fare?

    I like him.

    Ranked 15th last year in the NHL in ASV%.

    Not a great rookie year, but not awful.

    I’d make a bet on him.

    If he and Talbot cost the same, then Talbot in a walk.

    If there is a big price disparity, then Lack is a good bet.

  41. G Money says:

    Yak2: Yeah, no thank you to giving up Yakimov. Give them Khaira or Moroz or Kessy or Gernat or Musil. Yakimov, to me, is a keeper. We need size in our lineup, he and Draisaitl give that plus he’s a Center, so NO THANK YOU

    Yeesh, I know you’re a fan of Yak2 because your handle is … Yak2 … but to fall in love with a prospect to this extent is crazy.

    The #1 need for this team is a #1G, not a large #4C. And ‘large 4C’ is what Yak2 is likely to cap out at.

    To refuse to trade a future possible 4C for a likely 1G would be really really bad asset management.

  42. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Anyone in need of some great theatre can catch the Glendale City Council meeting live here:

    http://glendale-az.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?publish_id=4

  43. G Money says:

    Random thought out of nowhere: the scuttlebutt is that Arizona intends to pick Strome with their #3, but is open to trading it in order to stockpile picks. Would you trade Leon Draisaitl and say a middlish pick for Arizona’s #3, which you could then use to pick Noah Hanifin? Arizona gets their big C plus another pick for the stockpile, and the Oilers get their future franchise D.

    Just mulling the reality that RNH/McDavid are the Oilers top 6 C tandem next year, and likely McDavid/RNH the year after that, and that is going to be one deadly 1-2 combination for the next ten years.

    LD is going to be a 1C or 2C by potential, and he’ll be Staaled (get it?) behind the other two in Edmonton.

    I think Edmonton with McDavid/RNH/Hanifin is better than McDavid/RNH/Draisaitl.

    Would you make that move if it was available?

  44. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money:
    Random thought out of nowhere: the scuttlebutt is that Arizona intends to pick Strome with their #3, but is open to trading it in order to stockpile picks.Would you trade Leon Draisaitl and say a middlish pick for Arizona’s #3, which you could then use to pick Noah Hanifin?Arizona gets their big C plus another pick for the stockpile, and the Oilers get their future franchise D.

    Just mulling the reality that RNH/McDavid are the Oilers top 6 C tandem next year, and likely McDavid/RNH the year after that, and that is going to be one deadly 1-2 combination for the next ten years.

    LD is going to be a 1C or 2C by potential, and he’ll be Staaled (get it?) behind the other two in Edmonton.

    I think Edmonton with McDavid/RNH/Hanifin is better than McDavid/RNH/Draisaitl.

    Would you make that move if it was available?

    Exactly what Dean Lombardi would do.

  45. G Money says:

    Holy sh*t, first I ended up agreeing with the flamboyant lustrous vulpine one on the topic of Lack.

    Then I posted on an Arizona-centred topic at the same time as him.

    Can you catch Alzheimers through a blog?

    (:-) in case the jocularity is not clear)

  46. G Money says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    DAMMIT MAN, WE NEED TO STOP AGREEING!

  47. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Holy sh*t, first I ended up agreeing with the flamboyant lustrous vulpine one on the topic of Lack.

    Then I posted on an Arizona-centred topic at the same time as him.

    Can you catch Alzheimers through a blog?

    (:-) in case the jocularity is not clear)

    I can’t remember.

  48. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money:
    Holy sh*t, first I ended up agreeing with the flamboyant lustrous vulpine one on the topic of Lack.

    Then I posted on an Arizona-centred topic at the same time as him.

    Can you catch Alzheimers through a blog?

    (:-) in case the jocularity is not clear)

    I knew you would come around eventually.

  49. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Random thought out of nowhere: the scuttlebutt is that Arizona intends to pick Strome with their #3, but is open to trading it in order to stockpile picks.Would you trade Leon Draisaitl and say a middlish pick for Arizona’s #3, which you could then use to pick Noah Hanifin?Arizona gets their big C plus another pick for the stockpile, and the Oilers get their future franchise D.

    Just mulling the reality that RNH/McDavid are the Oilers top 6 C tandem next year, and likely McDavid/RNH the year after that, and that is going to be one deadly 1-2 combination for the next ten years.

    LD is going to be a 1C or 2C by potential, and he’ll be Staaled (get it?) behind the other two in Edmonton.

    I think Edmonton with McDavid/RNH/Hanifin is better than McDavid/RNH/Draisaitl.

    Would you make that move if it was available?

    I wouldn’t do it. Drai can play the wing and is more of a known quantity than Hanifin at the moment. Also, I am crazy bullish on Nurse. I think he becomes our 25-30 min a night guy in a few years and one of the top 10 best d-men in the league. There. I said it. 🙂

  50. Snowman says:

    G Money,

    That might be the best draft trade idea I’ve heard in a long long time.

  51. Hall Awaits says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’m not sure Gordon would be of much interest.

    Behind Henrik Sedin they have Bo Horvat (a great rookie season) and Nick Bonino at C as well as Cole Cassels and Jared McCann on the way.

    The Canucks are trying to get younger and faster so I don’t think Boyd Gordon, especially at $3 million, would even be in the conversation.

    The depth at C in Vancouver has really taken a hit in the last couple years.

    It’s a beautiful thing.

  52. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Pouzar: I wouldn’t do it. Drai can play the wing and is more of a known quantity than Hanifin at the moment. Also, I am crazy bullish on Nurse. I think he becomes our 25-30 min a night guy in a few years and one of the top 10 best d-men in the league. There. I said it.

    The Oilers don’t have “a few years”.

  53. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Hall Awaits: The depth at C in Vancouver has really taken a hit in the last couple years.

    It’s a beautiful thing.

    Well… they will have Cole Cassels to shut down McDavid like he did in the OHL playoffs. (outscored him in that series too).

  54. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The Oilers don’t have “a few years”.

    Drai AND Nurse are further along than Hanifin. What is your point?

  55. square_wheels says:

    Bettman sure got testy when Scott mentioned Arizona hemmoraging hundreds of millions.

    How fucking dare you Scott, it’s tens of millions, like 98. Hundreds, pfffft.

    Good on the Glendale govt, pro sports teams surely don’t need subsidies from an area that’s running out of water to drink.

  56. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Would you trade Cassels for CMD? My guess is you would. Cassels is an above average player who played for a fantastically disciplined and well coached team. I don’t think he’s the sole reason for the success in that series, a contributor for sure, the definite reason… probably not the most sound conclusion.

  57. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Second that, Nurse is going to chop a certain Canuck forwards head clean off!

  58. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    G Money,
    Woodguy:
    Thanks.

    By your analysis, G_Money, it looks like Lack > Talbot but Talbot handles the higher difficulty shots better, which might be a better fit given our D core, which is prone to giving up 5-bell chances.

    Seems like they’re both prime candidates to take over a starting role. Second round pick with a condition on signing? Done.

  59. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Pouzar: Drai AND Nurse are further along than Hanifin. What is your point?

    Hanifin is projected to be a legit #1D.

    Drai and Nurse are not projected to be either #1C or a #1D,

    Almost without exception, those guys emerge as impact players very early in today’s NHL.

    That they are further along works against them, not for them.

    That’s my point.

  60. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Holy sh*t, first I ended up agreeing with the flamboyant lustrous vulpine one on the topic of Lack.

    Then I posted on an Arizona-centred topic at the same time as him.

    Can you catch Alzheimers through a blog?

    (:-) in case the jocularity is not clear)

    I has some beers the other afternoon with DSF and found we agreed on most subjects.

    Was a very enjoyable meeting.

    He was in a bar booth so he couldn’t get up and move the goalposts.

    😀

  61. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Would you trade Cassels for CMD? My guess is you would. Cassels is an above average player who played for a fantastically disciplined and well coached team. I don’t think he’s the sole reason for the success in that series, a contributor for sure, the definite reason… probably not the most sound conclusion.

    Obviously I would but it is folly to think other teams players are just junk because they don’t play for the Oilers.

  62. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I’m not sure I follow the logic here… Hanifin is younger and less far along but projects better and that means he’ll be able to contribute sooner than Nurse who is expected to play next year?

    Is that what you meant? What’d I miss?

  63. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Obviously I would but it is folly to think other teams players are just junk because they don’t play for the Oilers.

    I think I’m more prone to think they are junk because they play for the Oilers.. Except Nuge. I love the Nuge.

  64. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Random thought out of nowhere: the scuttlebutt is that Arizona intends to pick Strome with their #3, but is open to trading it in order to stockpile picks.Would you trade Leon Draisaitl and say a middlish pick for Arizona’s #3, which you could then use to pick Noah Hanifin?Arizona gets their big C plus another pick for the stockpile, and the Oilers get their future franchise D.

    Just mulling the reality that RNH/McDavid are the Oilers top 6 C tandem next year, and likely McDavid/RNH the year after that, and that is going to be one deadly 1-2 combination for the next ten years.

    LD is going to be a 1C or 2C by potential, and he’ll be Staaled (get it?) behind the other two in Edmonton.

    I think Edmonton with McDavid/RNH/Hanifin is better than McDavid/RNH/Draisaitl.

    Would you make that move if it was available?

    Draisaitl for Hanifin? Absolutely.

    Not sure they’d do a straight swap, so then we’re debating whether they want Draisaitl and #15 or #33.

    If the latter, then still yes. The former…hmmm. Likely still do it.

    I do agree that walking out of the draft with McDavid and Hanifin is one hell of a good day’s shopping. Would Maloney actually make that deal, though?

  65. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Hanifin is projected to be a legit #1D.

    Drai and Nurse are not projected to be either #1C or a #1D,

    Almost without exception, those guys emerge as impact players very early in today’s NHL.

    That they are further along works against them, not for them.

    That’s my point.

    I would argue Nurse is more likely to be a #1 D than Hanifin (and I love Hanifin) based on where they are on their respective career paths. Nurse screams #1 D to me hence the reason I wouldn’t make the move. Like I said, I am more bullish than most.

  66. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Pouzar: I would argue Nurse is more likely to be a #1 D than Hanifin (and I love Hanifin) based on where they are on their respective career paths. Nurse screams #1 D to me hence the reason I wouldn’t make the move. Like I said, I am more bullish than most.

    Nurse screams a player who was drafted 2 years ago and likely needs at least half a season in the AHL before moving on to sheltered minutes in the NHL.

    I’d wager Hanifin gets there before him.

    Hanifin would easily be a #1 pick in an average draft.

    Think Drew Doughty.

  67. Snowman says:

    Pouzar,

    A Nurse-Hanifan top pairing would be one fast duo. I’d trade Drai for that I think. That would be a very good top pair. Both fast, good skaters, some offense from Hanifan, some toughness from Nurse. Both can move the puck. Yea…. I’d do that.

  68. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’d wager Hanifin gets there before him.

    $100 donation to this fine site?

  69. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Pouzar: $100 donation to this fine site?

    Done.

  70. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    No idea how real it is, but I just cobbled it together from the following bits and pieces that I have read (and may have some credibility behind):

    – That Arizona already has their franchise D and intends to take Strome as their future big elite C if they keep the #3
    – That Maloney has said he’s open to trading the #3 and stockpiling even more picks than he already has (I read this to mean that he feels he’s still early in the rebuild)

    So it ought to at least be credible to think that if he can still walk away from the draft with a big elite C plus yet another draft pick, he’s doing pretty well.

    Which leads me to daydream that if Chia Pete
    – trades LD + 33 to Arizona for #3 and grabs Hanifin
    – trades #57 plus a prospect to NY for Talbot
    – uses the offer sheet money for Hamilton to steal Sekera away from LA

    And the Oilers have solved 1D, 2D, 1G and still walk away with McDavid and the pick at #16 … I will build a fucking shrine to Chia in the corner nook upstairs!

  71. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Glendale City Council has voted to void their contract with the Coyotes.

    Thermonuclear war will ensue tomorrow.

  72. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Done.

    *spits on hand and extends*

  73. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Too bad they didn’t wait to interview Bettman until after the game..

  74. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    No idea how real it is, but I just cobbled it together from the following bits and pieces that I have read (and may have some credibility behind):

    – That Arizona already has their franchise D and intends to take Strome as their future big elite C if they keep the #3
    – That Maloney has said he’s open to trading the #3 and stockpiling even more picks than he already has (I read this to mean that he feels he’s still early in the rebuild)

    So it ought to at least be credible to think that if he can still walk away from the draft with a big elite C plus yet another draft pick, he’s doing pretty well.

    Which leads me to daydream that if Chia Pete
    – trades LD + 33 to Arizona for #3 and grabs Hanifin
    – trades #57 plus a prospect to NY for Talbot
    – uses the offer sheet money for Hamilton to steal Sekera away from LA

    And the Oilers have solved 1D, 2D, 1G and still walk away with McDavid and the pick at #16 … I will build a fucking shrine to Chia in the corner nook upstairs!

    Good thinking but….

    #57 and a prospect unless its a very good one won’t be enough to land Talbot.

    The Kings and Sekera are already well advanced in contract negotiations….Lombardi wants to keep him.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Glendale City Council has voted to void their contract with the Coyotes.

    Thermonuclear war will ensue tomorrow.

    Perfect.

  76. Woogie63 says:

    Interesting and basically equal UFA goalies; Niemi, Ramo, Neuvirth, Enroth, Dubynk

    Interesting and basically equal blocked back up goalies; Lenier, Talbot, Lack, Vasilevskiy, Jones, Scrivens

    Interesting and basically equal starters in play; Anderson, Lehtonen

    13 basically equal goalies…. 3 spots

    I would not be over paying to close the Faust position

  77. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Too bad they didn’t wait to interview Bettman until after the game..

    Would have been priceless.

  78. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Pouzar: *spits on hand and extends*

    Wipes butt with hand (left) and extends.

  79. G Money says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Good thinking but….
    #57 and a prospect unless its a very good one won’t be enough to land Talbot.
    The Kings and Sekera are already well advanced in contract negotiations….Lombardi wants to keep him.

    Yes, I recognize that … that’s why I will build a shrine to Chia if he can pull it off.

  80. Lowetide says:

    This is getting, unusual.

  81. fifthcartel says:

    Re: Coyotes

    It isn’t possible to move them this summer, is it?

  82. Hammers says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The Oilers don’t have “a few years”.

    They have as many as the Canucks. Actually they maybe going in opposite directions .

  83. Dashingsilverfox says:

    fifthcartel:
    Re: Coyotes

    It isn’t possible to move them this summer, is it?

    Apparently the Coyotes were 12 hours away from moving to Seattle when Glendale voted two years ago on the current agreement.

    I would imagine the next step will be a “shock and awe” legal manoeuvre from the NHL to try and get Glendale to reconsider tonight’s vote (they’ve already threatened a $200M lawsuit) but, in any event, the vote means the Coyotes will once again be hamstrung by uncertainty as they try and sell season tickets and procure sponsorships.

    Thing is, even if the NHL gets an injunction against the COG, the city can appeal and might win in the middle of the season which would create an immense headache for Bettman.

  84. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Hammers: They have as many as the Canucks. Actually they maybe going in opposite directions .

    The Canucks are basically treading water while they try and get younger and faster,

    In the long term view, they have to find replacements for the Sedins.

    I have no idea how they will pull that off while continuing to compete for a playoff spot.

  85. Hammers says:

    Snowman:
    Pouzar,

    A Nurse-Hanifan top pairing would be one fast duo. I’d trade Drai for that I think. That would be a very good top pair. Both fast, good skaters, some offense from Hanifan, some toughness from Nurse. Both can move the puck. Yea…. I’d do that.

    Agreed but they would want a player plus #16 . Schultz and # 12 for #3.

  86. knighttown says:

    I’m not sure Arizona would do Draisatl for the #3 because they’d be (perhaps) better off grabbing Strome. However, once Strome comes off the board I’d wager Leon Draisatl would look mighty fine to the Leafs.

    If the Oilers want Hanifan and Leon is in play it could happen.

  87. knighttown says:

    Hammers: Agreed but they would want a player plus #16 . Schultz and # 12 for #3.

    I think you might have that backward. Schultz + #3 would probably get you #12.

  88. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The Canucks are basically treading water while they try and get younger and faster,

    In the long term view, they have to find replacements for the Sedins.

    I have no idea how they will pull that off while continuing to compete for a playoff spot.

    I have no idea how they can replace the sedins when they don’t take guys that project as 1st liners.

    Horvat, Virtanen, Shinkaruk, McCann, Cassels all look like their ceiling will be the second line. Why pass up on Ehlers/Nylander/Fiala and to an extent Nichushkin?

  89. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I have no idea how they can replace the sedins when they don’t take guys that project as 1st liners.

    Horvat, Virtanen, Shinkaruk, McCann, Cassels all look like their ceiling will be the second line. Why pass up on Ehlers/Nylander/Fiala and to an extent Nichushkin?

    They have 3 more seasons of Sedins to figure it out.

    I agree…they will have to start taking some risks at the draft.

  90. Barcs says:

    Re Drai and 33 for 3rd overall:

    What is the degree of difference between Drai and Strome projected to be?

    Is the difference enough in Strome’s favour that the 33rd makes up for it?

    That’s what I would be asking if I were Don Maloney.

  91. fifthcartel says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    It just seems like they’re finally giving the NHL the chance to go “oh well, we tried!” and move them if they can’t agree on an arena deal (any deal is insane because they were basically helping them cover their loses). I feel like they can’t have this lingering throughout the summer and possibly have a lame-duck season, so I’m guessing they’ve already talked to other cities in case this has happened to see how quickly they could house them.

  92. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Coyotes statement on Glendale council vote:

    “We are disappointed with the city’s decision to violate its obligations under the agreement that was entered into and duly approved only two years ago. We will exhaust any and all legal remedies against the city of Glendale for this blatant violation of its contractual obligations to us.”

    Here we go.

  93. Barcs says:

    Here’s a crazy though (and I don’t think I agree with it, but just to put it out there):

    I’m sure Chia has done his due diligence and spoken to Tim Murray about what he would be willing to do to swap picks.

    IF the Drai-for-3OV comes about, does that make Chia more interested in swapping CMD for Eichel, Ristolainen and something?

    My point I guess is that Hannifan and Eichel were former teammates, would have familiarity with each other.

    I LOVE CMD, not just for his ability but also his character, which for me is the big difference between CMD and Eichel, but just thought I would mention that.

  94. Dashingsilverfox says:

    fifthcartel:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    It just seems like they’re finally giving the NHL the chance to go “oh well, we tried!” and move them if they can’t agree on an arena deal (any deal is insane because they were basically helping them cover their loses). I feel like they can’t have this lingering throughout the summer and possibly have a lame-duck season, so I’m guessing they’ve already talked to other cities in case this has happened to see how quickly they could house them.

    Yeah, I’m sure the NHL has looked at options but apparently this whole thing arose in a 48 hour period so some may have been caught flat footed.

    I think the COG wants to re-negotiate the lease agreement but I don’t think the Coyotes can afford to do that.

    The NHL doesn’t have many viable options for re-location since neither Seattle or Las Vegas have arenas ready yet and moving the team to Quebec City would make the conference imbalance even worse.

    Perhaps the Coyotes could move to QC and play in the west for a couple of seasons like the Jets did when they played in the SE for a couple of seasons?

    It’s a mess.

  95. Barcs says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Coyotes statement on Glendale council vote:

    “We are disappointed with the city’s decision to violate its obligations under the agreement that was entered into and duly approved only two years ago. We will exhaust any and all legal remedies against the city of Glendale for this blatant violation of its contractual obligations to us.”

    Here we go.

    http://www.scatchan.net/img/1356758183402416.png

  96. frjohnk says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yeah, I’m sure the NHL has looked at options but apparently this whole thing arose in a 48 hour period so some may have been caught flat footed.

    I think the COG wants to re-negotiate the lease agreement but I don’t think the Coyotes can afford to do that.

    The NHL doesn’t have many viable options for re-location since neither Seattle or Las Vegas have arenas ready yet and moving the team to Quebec City would make the conference imbalance even worse.

    Perhaps the Coyotes could move to QC and play in the west for a couple of seasons like the Jets did when they played in the SE for a couple of seasons?

    It’s a mess.

    Have not followed this much but I bet the NHL will not want to relocate to a place like Seattle or Quebec as the NHL probably have these places as pegged to pay $500M or whatever the number is for the expansion fee. NHL will exhaust all avenues to keep the Yotes in the desert.

    Oh to be a fly on Bettmans wall.

  97. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    This thread has all kinds of creative thinking.

    I am on the Lack train also.

    Ideally trade 16+57 to Buffalo for 21+31

    Trade 31 or 33 for Lack or Talbot and a later pick and take Slats’ leverage away.

    Trade 21 for Braun or add a prospect to get Ellis.

    If Arizona prefers LD over Strome, let them pay a price. LD straight across with nothing added for #3

  98. TheOtherJohn says:

    Victor Hedman, who the Oilers did not face in any of their games against TB this year, is an absolute stud. Possession #’s off the charts tonight.

    True #1 D is pretty special

  99. Barcs says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Woodguy has completely sold me on Ellis.

    Supremely underrated around the league.

    Is he underrated in the Nashville front office though?

  100. LadiesloveSmid says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    This thread has all kinds of creative thinking.

    I am on the Lack train also.

    Ideally trade 16+57 to Buffalo for 21+31

    Trade 31 or 33 for Lack or Talbot and a later pick and take Slats’ leverage away.

    Trade21 for Braun or add a prospect to get Ellis.

    If Arizona prefers LD over Strome, let them pay a price.LD straight across with nothing added for #3

    is Braun not largely propped up by Vlasic? What’s the love for him?

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=66333

  101. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    No idea how real it is, but I just cobbled it together from the following bits and pieces that I have read (and may have some credibility behind):

    – That Arizona already has their franchise D and intends to take Strome as their future big elite C if they keep the #3
    – That Maloney has said he’s open to trading the #3 and stockpiling even more picks than he already has (I read this to mean that he feels he’s still early in the rebuild)

    So it ought to at least be credible to think that if he can still walk away from the draft with a big elite C plus yet another draft pick, he’s doing pretty well.

    Which leads me to daydream that if Chia Pete
    – trades LD + 33 to Arizona for #3 and grabs Hanifin
    – trades #57 plus a prospect to NY for Talbot
    – uses the offer sheet money for Hamilton to steal Sekera away from LA

    And the Oilers have solved 1D, 2D, 1G and still walk away with McDavid and the pick at #16 … I will build a fucking shrine to Chia in the corner nook upstairs!

    How do we get a top pairing D man?

    Free agency?
    Not this year, I don’t think we will sign Sekara, as LA is doing what they can to get rid of Richards so they can sign Sekara.

    So, either draft and develop

    or

    trade

    But if we wanna get, we are gonna have to give.

    I do think Draisaitl is our biggest trade chip.

    Draisaitl and the 33rd ( which is really a late first in this draft) would get Maloney to take a long look.

    Maybe this

    Draisaitl + 16th

    for

    3rd + Chicago’s 1st rounder

    but then we leave with the best forward and the best D man.

    Use Chicago’s pick for BPA

    Then use the 33rd pick in a trade for OK, DashingSilverFox, just for you, a goalie such as Lack, or Talbot.

    I think Klefbom and Nurse have potential to become top pairing D man. But they are just potential. Great potential though, I love both. But we have no other D men who I would peg better than a number 4.

    Throwing a Hanifan or a Provorov in this group and that is nice looking 3 man D core moving forward.

    Our center depth would still be strong.
    RNH
    CMD
    Lander ( If his WHC is of any indication of what kind of player he will be, he is not a number 3 center, he is a number 2)

    If we want something really good, we are going to have to give up something really good.

  102. Woodguy says:

    Barcs:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Woodguy has completely sold me on Ellis.

    Supremely underrated around the league.

    Is he underrated in the Nashville front office though?

    Not with that contract.

    They move Weber before Ellis.

    Weber would fetch a ransom in trade and get a very large contract off the books.

    I suspect that if Jones had a better year they might move him this summer to address 1C.

    They. Still moght.

  103. Barcs says:

    Woodguy,

    Weber, Lucic, and Girardi are three players I am terrified Chiarelli is going to go after.

    Weber is still quite good, but trending downward, massive contract, massive acquisition cost.

  104. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    I’m not sure Arizona would do Draisatl for the #3 because they’d be (perhaps) better off grabbing Strome. However, once Strome comes off the board I’d wager Leon Draisatl would look mighty fine to the Leafs.

    If the Oilers want Hanifan and Leon is in play it could happen.

    If I’m Chia I’m not trying to make the cluster younger.

    I want players who contribute starting this October to take full advantage of Hall’s contract and McDavid’s ELC.

    I like Hanifin a lot, but he’s years away from being a #1.

    It took Hedman 4-5 years and he’s probably better than Hanifan.

  105. Woodguy says:

    Barcs:
    Woodguy,

    Weber, Lucic, and Girardi and three players I am terrified Chiarelli is going to go after.

    Weber is still quite good, but trending downward, massive contract, massive acquisition cost.

    Agreed all points.

  106. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: They have 3 more seasons of Sedins to figure it out.

    I agree…they will have to start taking some risks at the draft.

    Seeing as Benning’s key signings have been:

    1) Over the hill Miller for 3x $6MM
    2) Below replacement level Sbsia for $3.6 x 3
    3) Sign decent 4th liner, but 4th liner Dorsett for $2.65 x4

    You may be waiting a while for them to turn around.

    Like the Vrbata acquisition.

    The rest have been meh (Kesler return) to terrible.

  107. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    This is getting, unusual.

    Now it’s getting unusual?

    The horses are in the next paddock and you’re just getting a hand on the gate.

    Our collective peculiarity is a testament to the Alice-In-Wonderland landscape you continue to provide for us.

    We sincerely thank you. NOW OFF WITH YOUR HEAD!

    🙂

  108. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Chia I’m not trying to make the cluster younger.

    I want players who contribute starting this October to take full advantage of Hall’s contract and McDavid’s ELC.

    I like Hanifin a lot, but he’s years away from being a #1.

    It took Hedman 4-5 years and he’s probably better than Hanifan.

    So would Draisaitl for Hamilton be something you’d look at, if we’re discussing using him to add a defenseman.

    Say, Draisaitl, Marincin and #16 for Hamilton and Connolly and #14?

  109. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I don’t think Braun is propped up too much by Vlasic. He is on a bargain.contract and 28 and right handed. He skates well and is a shutdown type. I think he and Klefbom could become Hjalmarsson-Oduya. Ellis is younger and better but would cost more to get.

    Also, Ellis is like Stralman before his deal. If he were more proven he wouldn’t be moved. Just like we should have gone for Larsson last year. Gotta take some risk but I think it’s low risk.

  110. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Chia I’m not trying to make the cluster younger.

    I want players who contribute starting this October to take full advantage of Hall’s contract and McDavid’s ELC.

    I like Hanifin a lot, but he’s years away from being a #1.

    It took Hedman 4-5 years and he’s probably better than Hanifan.

    You’re severely under rating Hanifan.

    He began the season at Boston College as a 17 year old who took extra classes over the summer…otherwise he would have been playing high school hockey.

    He’s still only 18 but is 6’3″ and 205 and will likely be a bit larger by the time he’s 21.

    He screams #1D almost right out of the box.

  111. RexLibris says:

    Actual footage of Oiler fans in the minutes, nay, seconds after the Oilers announce Connor McDavid as the 1st overall selection: http://imgur.com/gallery/Smogt7i

  112. jake70 says:

    Some interesting tidbits in this article from C. Johnson yesterday. Not so sure the rebuild will be of the scorched earth variety. Now, he probably posted that article before the silliness with the COG was reported. Doan in no hurry to win a cup – I thought players wanted to win above all else.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/shane-doan-dave-tippett-returning-to-coyotes/

  113. 719 says:

    G Money,

    Phenomenal proposal, never thought of doing something like that. I am on board, if Drai can get you Hanifin, then you make that trade. Leafs seem like the likely target, if Strome is taken at number 3.

    C depth on the Oilers looks pretty good right now, even without Drai. Having Lander as 3C also creates less salary cap problems down the road (we hope).

  114. Bank Shot says:

    Speaking of Defencemen, I think one of Tampa’s guys will be available.

    They only have $1.1 million in capspace and they still need to sign two forwards and two defencemen. Impossible.

    They have 5 defensemen making $4+. Hedman, Stralman, Carle, Garrison, and Coburn.

    The Oilers could probably acquire one of Carle or Coburn for fairly cheap.

    Since everyone is craving an offersheet. Lets propose some that might actually work:

    Oilers could offersheet Michael Del Zotto from the Flyers. Flyers have negative cap space. They might want to let Del Zotto walk anyway depending on his contract demands. He’s shown he can put up points and played a lot and fairly well for the Fylers last season.

    Chicago. They have $5 million in cap space and only have 7 forwards and 3 d-men under contract.

    The math guys always rave about Kruger.

    Perhaps even as little as $1.8 million, a third round pick could make the Blackhawks walk away from him. Then the Oilers have the option of using Gordon as trade currency while replacing him with someone as good, cheaper and younger.

  115. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: So would Draisaitl for Hamilton be something you’d look at, if we’re discussing using him to add a defenseman.

    Say, Draisaitl, Marincin and #16 for Hamilton and Connolly and #14?

    In a heartbeat.

    BOS doesn’t need C’s right now though.

    Bergeron and Krejci locked up long term.

    They need better D. Heh.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: In a heartbeat

    I don’t know.

    My heart would be beating pretty fast if Sweeney or Neely made me that offer.

  117. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: In a heartbeat.

    BOS doesn’t need C’s right now though.

    Bergeron and Krejci locked up long term.

    They need better D. Heh.

    And the Oilers needed a solid, experienced RHD before, during and after they traded Jeff Petry.

    What’s your point?

  118. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: You’re severely under rating Hanifan.

    He began the season at Boston College as a 17 year old who took extra classes over the summer…otherwise he would have been playing high school hockey.

    He’s still only 18 but is 6’3″ and 205 and will likely be a bit larger by the time he’s 21.

    He screams #1D almost right out of the box.

    When it looked liked the Oilers were drafting third I was pimping Hanifin every day.

    The NHL is the best league in the world and Dman is the toughest position.

    For every Doughty who comes out of the gate hot there are dozens of Hedman, Pietrangelo, Weber, Keith, Chara etc who took time, often 4+ years to become an Actual 1st pairing Dman.

  119. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: And the Oilers needed a solid, experienced RHD before, during and after they traded Jeff Petry.

    What’s your point?

    Chia’s gonna trade MacT to BOS?

    Excellent!

  120. HiddenDarts says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Good thinking but….

    #57 and a prospect unless its a very good one won’t be enough to land Talbot.

    The Kings and Sekera are already well advanced in contract negotiations….Lombardi wants to keep him.

    This is going to depend on whether Sekera wants to get really rich, or whether he wants to win.

    If he takes a contract from the Kings, it will be a severe discount to almost every other D with UFA. Hell, it might be a discount on Petry’s contract!

    Don’t see it happening. Barring Mike Richards getting captured by aliens.

  121. frjohnk says:

    Compared a couple of goalies of note. I throw a monkey wrench into Woodguys Talbot pickup. ( kind of)

    Scrivens is 1 year older than Talbot. Both played junior A, NCAA, AHL and NHL. Followed similar career paths.

    19 year old Junoir A
    Scrivens .923
    Talbot .918

    20 year old NCAA
    Scrivens .911
    Talbot .860

    21 year old NCAA
    Scrivens .930
    Talbot .907

    22 year old NCAA
    Scrivens .931
    Talbot .925

    23 year old NCAA Scrivens/AHL Talbot
    Scrivens .934
    Talbot .902

    24 year old AHL
    Scrivens .924
    Talbot .913

    25 year old AHL
    Scrivens .926
    Talbot .918

    26 year old AHL
    Scrivens .917
    Talbot .924

    26 year old NHL
    Scrivens .915 Also had 59% quality starts
    Talbot .941 Also had 80% quality starts

    27 year old NHL
    Scrivens .922 Also had 63% quality starts
    Talbot .926 Also had 50% quality starts

    28 year old NHL
    Scrivens .890 Also had 37% quality starts
    Talbot To be determined

    Scrivens came out of the gate better. Talbot passed him in the 26 year old season. But Scrivens evened it up in the 27 year old season. I bet Talbot has a better 28 year old season than Scrivens just had though.

    Save percentage is a great stat but for me its not enough. That’s why I love using quality starts in my goalie stats as we then can see which goalies give a team a chance to win on a more regular basis. Even though Talbot had a pretty good year just this past year, Scrivens 13-14 year that was split between LA and EDM was a year I like better by a hair. Why? Even though Talbot beat Scrivens save % by .004 points, I like Scrivens year better because he had a better quality start percentage. He gave his teams a better chance to win more games over the year. QS% of 60% is bording elite. QS% of 53% is average. QS% less than 50% is below average. In 13-14, Scrivens had a QS% of 63%, while Talbot had a QS% of 50%.

    Up until this year, Scrivens was a good bet to be a number 1 goalie. Save % was above average and quality starts were close to elite. Fell off the cliff this year. He will bounce back. Not sure to what level though.

    Talbot is right now where Scrivens was last year and just like Scrivens last year, I think Talbot is a good bet to be a number 1 goalie this coming year. But there is a small sample size at work. And we should also remember that Talbot played in front of one of the best team defenses in the league.
    If he gets traded to EDM and he will be playing behind a team that I ranked 26th in team defence this past year. Id expect Talbots numbers to fall somewhat in Edmonton. The 50% quality start number behind that defence in New York is something that sticks out and does concern me. With EDM’s defence, he would be in the 40’s.

    Something crazy? Talbot gets traded to the Oilers, but does not grab the reins as a starter. Scrivens bounces back and becomes a good number 1 for the Oilers.

    And then a year from now, we are asking the question ” so what are doing about the goaltending situation for the coming year?”

  122. russ99 says:

    Wow, the Coyotes are a colossal disaster.

    Can’t stay, can’t move with litigation on the table, can’t sell tickets for next year either way right now.

    Plus this happened during Bettman’s sacred moratorium on anything upstaging the Cup finals.

    Gary’s probably pulling a Torii Hunter in his posh Park Avenue condo right now.

  123. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Gary’s probably pulling a Torii Hunter in his posh Park Avenue condo right now.

    for some reason I picture him trying to crush a Styrofoam cup with his bare hands but fails.

  124. OF17 says:

    frjohnk,

    Really interesting post. Thank you for sharing. Both gives a good word of caution against putting too much on Cam Talbot and also against Dubnyking Scrivens. Could very well have a bounce-back year, in fact I’d be shocked if he doesn’t make it back to at least a .900 SV%, which is a notable goaltending improvement right there.

    You know who shows pretty well in Quality Starts stats? Corey Crawford. I have no idea why Hawks fans on the whole dislike the guy. I suppose like most whipping boys it’s due to contract, but we should show them some tape of Scrivens and Fasth from this year so they appreciate what they have more. Maybe (hopefully) that changes a bit after these Finals.

  125. jm363561 says:

    jm363561,

    A real head scratcher. Winning the McDavid lottery is a real bitch! With Lander as 3C I trade Leon for a top D. A real bitch though.

  126. oilinthepeg says:

    Trading LD for Hanifin is basically like trading him for McDavid if we hadn’t won the lottery…

    You have to do it.
    You get your generational franchise C (thank the Gords…) and give up your very good C for a very good D… And you need D. I don’t see this being available, though. It would cost additional picks. But even if it cost the 33 as well, you do it, obviously. ESPECIALLY with the expected emergence of Lander.

  127. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    First discussion between Kevin and Peter on the Dougie Hamilton offer sheet. I foresee they’re going to get along famously.

  128. Chris says:

    As far as Lack and Talbot go if you can acquire either of them for one of the second round picks it’s a good bet. As much as we all can see that the prospects likely to be available are desirable, we are not going to acquire a possible starting goalie for nothing.

    It’s interesting that the City if Glendale finally decided that it’s better to have a mostly empty arena than to prop up a perpetually money losing hockey team. I found it odd that they bothered too years ago but one suposed that late is better than never for people to come to their senses although the team will now lose a small fortune before fleeing to Quebec City. Either Columbus or Detriot will be annoyed to find their way back to the west.

  129. AsiaOil says:

    Agree for the most part except the UFA – Niemi and Dubnyk are not equal to the others. Those guys are proven starters who have carried teams to success in the regular season – and one has a Vezina nomination this year and likely would win if not for Price’s outstanding season. I would be happy to have Niemi for 3 years at 4 million a year – that only makes him a mid-pack starter (#15 or #16) in terms of salary. Enough of rolling the dice on guys with limited track records as starters and projections based on small samples. How many time do you have to fail before it’s realized that the only thng that matters is record. Dubnyk is not coming here as he wants to stay in MIN – but if the Wild can’t fork up at least $4 million with term then the Sharks will be happy to get a younger version of Niemi. At this point I think SJS is probably where he ends up.

    One of Lenier, Talbot, Lack, Vasilevskiy, Jones, Scrivens could end up being a quality starter – but I’m not interested in rolling the dice again with 5-1 odds against. Niemi or Anderson are the smart options – and I prefer Anderson for the small cap hit and shorter term while we develop a young guy.

    If the young Russian is as good as advertised – then use #16 on him and develop him while Anderson or Niemi are under contract. He’ll be good to go when we are ready to really compete. The idea that you never use a 1st round pick for a goalie is just plain wrong – Cary Price says hi – you just have to use it on a guy who clearly has superior skills. Walking out of the draft with CMD (best forward) , Samsonov @ #16 (best goalie), a quality dman at #33 and Anderson using the MON pick. Bloody hell that’s a haul 🙂

    Another deal could be taking advantage of MIN’s cap situration – trade Scrivens for Backstrom and Kuemper. Just put Backstrom on LTIR for the entire season (he just had elbow surgery) and keep Kuemper as your young backup with promise (I really like the kid – great potential). You still get Anderson or Niemi as the veteran to support the developing young guy and you use the #16 pick to get a vet dman. Lots of scenarios out and thankfully we finally have management with the ability to take advantage – we wait.

    Woogie63:
    Interesting and basically equal UFA goalies; Niemi, Ramo, Neuvirth, Enroth, Dubynk

    Interesting and basically equal blocked back up goalies; Lenier, Talbot, Lack, Vasilevskiy, Jones, Scrivens

    Interesting and basically equal starters in play; Anderson, Lehtonen

    13 basically equal goalies…. 3 spots

    I would not be over paying to close the Faust position

  130. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: So would Draisaitl for Hamilton be something you’d look at, if we’re discussing using him to add a defenseman. Say, Draisaitl, Marincin and #16 for Hamilton and Connolly and #14?

    Now something like Drai++ for Hamilton is something I would definitely be on board for.

  131. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Now something like Drai++ for Hamilton is something I would definitely be on board for.

    Boston would need a defence man back.

    Lets say that Boston will only offer Hamilton a bridge deal as their hands are tied because of the cap and the Hamilton camp know they can get 7M x 7 year in an offer sheet, Boston could decide to trade Hamilton.

    In this case, there will be a pile of teams looking to trade with Boston.

    With EDM, the Bruins would be definitely be looking at getting a good young D man and a good young forward.

    They would be asking for Klefbom and Draisaitl I bet. . I wouldn’t do that trade.

  132. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: They would be asking for Klefbom and Draisaitl I bet. . I wouldn’t do that trade.

    Nor would I.

    Hamilton is just an example of the type of player I would want back for Drai(we would have to add to that of course). I love Hanifin but this only makes the cluster younger and there is no guarantee Hanifin is a #1 at all much less in year 1 or 2 a la Doughty.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    So DSF what are you guys using for your definition of #1 defenseman. Are you using the hfboards definition of #1 defenseman of which there are only 6 that fit the criteria or are you using the top 30 in the league and in what criteria. There is a lot of variability in people’s definition of number 1 d.

    Also, wonder if OEL wants to get out of Pheonix yet. People tend to like jumping of sinking ships. He might want a change of scenery. Might be a very good time to ask about him.

  134. OilSafety says:

    Phenomenal thread.
    Our c situation is a difficult one. Dry brings the only size in the group. Nuge brings the experience you need to bring in mc Jesus. Lander has some experience and will be the value contract. Mc Jesus is mc Jesus.
    But we need d. And you’ve got to give to get. I agree with most here it seems dry is the one to move. But by doing so we have to acknowledge we need more skill with size in the top 6. Pouls has been great, but if our top 3 c is mc Jesus, nuge and lander we need an injection of size that can play with these guys. I like dry on wing. But then we need to come up with assets to get some top 3 d.

  135. franksterra says:

    Agreed, great thread. Collectively there’s too much pressure here to have the new improved roster in place for first puck drop. Sorting out the net, acquiring one high end ‘cluster worthy’ D-man, having a great draft, managing the cap and roster leaving lots of flexibility over the season would be a great start to the year. Get the other badly needed D man once things shake loose after some games.

  136. GCW_69 says:

    Pouzar: Drai AND Nurse are further along than Hanifin. What is your point?

    Some of the reports I have read suggest Hanifan is roughly the same place as Nurse in terms of being NHL ready and has a higher probability of topping out as a top pairing defender.

    Would a left side of Hanifan – Nurse – Klefbom be a bad thing?

    What is Hanifan could play the right side?

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