SCREAMING TARGETS: DOUGIE HAMILTON

Peter Chiarelli drilled a big fly into the July night in 2006, 36 days after he was named Boston Bruins GM. He grabbed Zdeno Chara from the Ottawa Senators and added a cornerstone piece to a Stanley team. Will he duplicate it in his first 100 days as Oilers GM?

  • Pierre Lebrun: “I’m sure the Boston Bruins would match no matter what, but it’s interesting to hear rumblings of teams contemplating the idea of an offer sheet for restricted free agent Dougie Hamilton. We haven’t seen a whole of offer sheets the past few years, but the idea here is that the Bruins are right up against the cap and are vulnerable to it. It’s believed the Edmonton Oilers general manager (and former Bruins GM) Peter Chiarelli is in fact tossing around the idea internally. How much fun would that be? But seriously, the Oilers are in need of help on the blue line so it would make sense. Thing is, I doubt they’re the only team thinking of doing it.” Source

Music! Fantastic. I wrote about Hamilton as a target this week and it’s a very sweet—if risky—idea. The dollars invested in Hamilton would mean the cap crunch arrives earlier than we thought but holy lord things would get fun in a quick hurry. The McDavid entry-level deal would get very interesting in a heartbeat.

NUTS AND BOLTS

Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe broke down the money in a recent article:

  • Shinzawa: A team that signs a player to an offer sheet worth $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 annually would have to cede first-, second-, and third-round picks. The Bruins would match in the lower tier of that segment. They might think twice about approaching the upper limit.The price becomes higher in the next segment. To sign a player for $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 annually, a team would have to give up two firsts, one second-, and one third-round pick. As highly as the Bruins think of Hamilton, this would be a steep price to pay. Source

speeds is the resident cap genius among the Oilosphere’s brain trust, suspect he has very specific thoughts on the matter. For now, let’s use $7M times 10 years as a starting point, with a Shea Weber style poison pill payout at the beginning just for fun. Cool? The roster suddenly becomes far different and we also have a sticky relationship with the cap;

  • Goal ($3.75) Cam Talbot 1.45; Ben Scrivens 2.3
  • Defense ($25.319) Dougie Hamilton 7.0; Niki Nikitin 4.5; Justin Schultz 3.675est; Mark Fayne 3.65; Andrew Ference 3.25; Oscar Klefbom 1.244; Martin Marincin 1.0est.
  • Center ($14.688) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6.0; Connor McDavid 3.775; Anton Lander .988; Boyd Gordon 3.0; Leon Draisaitl .925
  • Left Wing ($13.575) Taylor Hall 6.0; Benoit Pouliot 4.0; Iiro Pakarinen .925; Matt Hendricks 1.85; Luke Gazdic .800.
  • Right Wing ($14.485) Jordan Eberle 6.0; Nail Yakupov 2.5; Teddy Purcell 4.5; Rob Klinkhammer .725; Tyler Pitlick .760est.
  • Estimated Cap Ceiling: $71 million
  • Roster: $70.817 million

Leon’s bonuses aren’t included so it’s tight—AND I’m assuming Talbot here as the inexpensive starter in goal. If you add Dougie Hamilton, you probably move Justin Schultz. That’s one way of fixing things. Also not sure $7M gets it done. Ideally Nikitin and Ference move too, and the Oilers find useful replacements. That’s a big bloody job for one summer. Love the idea of Dougie Hamilton as an Oiler and dearly wish for a moment of clarity from this organization where they can find a Jason Smith or Steve Staios for less than full price. Badly need that kind of addition.

Todd Nelson was good for the Edmonton Oilers and his parting gift (should it come to pass) is Anton Lander. He came to the Oilers at a time when they simply couldn’t get out of their own way and he helped build a farm team from nothing. I hope he has a long and successful career as an NHL coach and believe he will.

ROBIN LEHNER

  • Bruce Garrioch:Sources say Murray would like a young player who has the potential to be top six forward and a high draft pick in return. Source

That’s a lot for Lehner, depending on how you look at it. He’s not close to being ideal for the Oilers (.905SP, concussion issues, $2.225M cap hit times two) but goalies are voodoo and there was a time when Lehner was thought to be hot stuff. I wouldn’t give up a pick in the top 75, let alone adding Bogdan Yakimov or Anton Slepyshev. There are better goalies who should be available and the concussion worry is a big damn deal. Too risky for me. Thoughts?

Talbot remains the most attractive option and of course Antti Niemi’s availability via free agency is of interest because Todd McLellan is the new Oilers coach. One wonders if the Oilers are shopping for one or two goalies this summer—it is possible the club could add Talbot, Lehner and retain Scrivens, with the loser of the backup battle heading to Bakersfield to share the net with Laurent Brossoit. Remember, the GM and coach are not tied in any way to last year’s roster, certainly not to the point where Ben Scrivens would have ownership of an NHL job at this time.

hennessey gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning as we’re at the Ranch to do the Lowdown. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260 beginning at 10:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll discuss the possibility of a Hamilton OS sheet, Lehner as Oilers G, Martin Marincin and Mark Fayne.
  • Sean Beissel, Campus Director for Donnan Hockey. We’ll talk about the value of a mentor in development.
  • Scotty Bowman. Seriously.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN. We’ll discuss the Oilers situation in goal, plus the idea of trading one of the young guns.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. ‘Hawks current situation, Hamilton offer sheet.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s an outdoor broadcast! Should be a blast!

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181 Responses to "SCREAMING TARGETS: DOUGIE HAMILTON"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Can’t wait read the posts from people who don’t want to offer sheet anyone for fear of a retaliation offer sheet against the Oilers.

    Ignoring the fact that it hasn’t happened in the history of the NHL.

  2. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    Can’t wait read the posts from people who don’t want to offer sheet anyone for fear of a retaliation offer sheet against the Oilers.

    Ignoring the fact that it hasn’t happened in the history of the NHL.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NHL_players_who_have_signed_offer_sheets

    VAN offer sheeted Backes (STL) on July 1, STL offer sheeted Bernier (VAN) on July 8.

    IIRC it was assumed that was retaliation at the time, I suppose it’s possible they would have done it anyways, and that it had nothing to do with retaliation.

  3. russ99 says:

    Love the idea of a Hamilton offer sheet, but let’s be real, Boston will match it, especially if they can skate the cap by putting Lucic or Chara on LTIR.

    I’d rather take that idea and try a different tack that will work: include next year’s first round pick in that big deal for a defenseman we eventually need to make – at the latest before the deadline next year.

    Nelson looking at AHL coaching gigs gives me mixed feelings. Would he rather go elsewhere at a lower position than stay here given that the new brass doesn’t help out their buddies like the old brass did?

    I wish him success. But maybe it’s for the best that McLellan picks his own staff rather than being saddled with his predecessor.

  4. flea says:

    Woodguy,

    I think it’s overlooked that the players have a big say in offer sheets too. If they want to stay with their current team, they just wouldn’t sign it. Maybe bring it to the negotiation for some leverage though . . .

    It’s what makes the Hamilton one so interesting. A team other than the Bruins could probably afford to pay Hamilton more than the Bruins could at this point in time. It makes more sense this time. Who knows, maybe even a guy like Chara shakes loose instead and that would be a great consolation prize.

  5. Woodguy says:

    For now, let’s use $7M times 10 years as a starting point,

    LT,

    Max term that you can offer a player on another team is 7 years.

    Max term that you can offer a player on your team is 8 years.

    Offer sheet is max 7 years.

    ALSO,

    Its very important to remember that compensation is based on:

    Total value of the contract divided by the term OR 5 YEARS, WHICH EVER IS LESS

    So if the Oilers offer 7 years at $7MM then the its:

    $49MM/5 = $9.8MM for compensation

    That’s 4 first rounders.

  6. su_dhillon says:

    In a dream world where they make an offer sheet and it works, at that point walking away from Schultz becomes a no brainer right? if you are paying your #1 7M you prob don;t feel great about paying 4M for your #5-6, you might want to go a little cheaper there. Buy out Nikitin and now we’re cooking with gas.

  7. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Could PC just work out a trade for Hamilton? Save a first round pick, give one with maybe a second and one of our roster players to free up some space…say Persell; then work a deal with Hamilton in the 6 mil 6 year range or something like that?

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Scotty Bowman, eh. I fully expect you to ask him WTF were the Hawks thinking trading for Kimmo Timonen when Jeff Petry was available.

  9. wheatnoil says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Could PC just work out a trade for Hamilton? Save a first round pick, give one with maybe a second and one of our roster players to free up some space…say Persell; then work a deal with Hamilton in the 6 mil 6 year range or something like that?

    I’m not sure why Boston would want to trade Hamilton though.

  10. Woodguy says:

    PREDICTION:

    Chiarelli uses threat of an offer sheet (not just his threat, but threat of other teams) to get Chara out of BOS for Marincin and a 3rd.

    BOOK IT!!!

  11. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy:
    For now, let’s use $7M times 10 years as a starting point,

    LT,

    Max term that you can offer a player on another team is 7 years.

    Max term that you can offer a player on your team is 8 years.

    Offer sheet is max 7 years.

    ALSO,

    Its very important to remember that compensation is based on:

    Total value of the contract divided by the term OR 5 YEARS, WHICH EVER IS LESS

    So if the Oilers offer 7 years at $7MM then the its:

    $49MM/5 = $9.8MM for compensation

    That’s 4 first rounders.

    Yeesh, so I guess the question is do they match 7 x 5? 49M + 4 First rounders is steeeep!

  12. Ducey says:

    Is Hamilton, you know, worth $7M x 7 (or 5 or 4)?

    People have convinced themselves that he is a #1. He is not now. He has Chara to shelter him and that’s a big damn deal.

    Webber was/is a bona fide #1. Hamilton might be someday.

    Too much to pay for someday. Especially when that contract is going to force to Oilers to get rid of one of the superkids.

  13. dustrock says:

    With Niemi, this sounds obvious I know, but with McLellan on, he’s either a sure lock to come or they won’t even talk to him, I don’t think there’s any inbetween. lol

    Given how things went in the collapse against the Kings, not sure McLellan would want Niemi, and maybe likewise.

  14. nelson88 says:

    Scotty Bowman is on your show. Wow! With work and time differences I don’t get to listen in but well done.

    + what Bruce said. Hawks are my second favourite team and that was a head scratcher from the beginning.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy:
    For now, let’s use $7M times 10 years as a starting point,

    LT,

    Max term that you can offer a player on another team is 7 years.

    Max term that you can offer a player on your team is 8 years.

    Offer sheet is max 7 years.

    ALSO,

    Its very important to remember that compensation is based on:

    Total value of the contract divided by the term OR 5 YEARS, WHICH EVER IS LESS

    So if the Oilers offer 7 years at $7MM then the its:

    $49MM/5 = $9.8MM for compensation

    That’s 4 first rounders.

    what about 7.5×5?

    Two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Maybe they think Edmonton’s firsts would be worth it, or that 7.5M is too steep for Hamilton. At least gives it a chance, though I think Boston will move mountains to keep him.

    Would fit like a glove in Edmonton, would mean selling one of Hall-Eberle after the McD ELC I would bet though

  16. Woodguy says:

    Best way to pry Hamilton out of BOS is a short term sheet.

    1 year at $7.25MM. $5MM salary, $2.25MM signing bonus so you can negotiate off of $5MM next year for a long term contract.

    Avoids having to give up 4 1st if you’re successful.

    Keeps the compensation down to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

  17. misfit says:

    I know I said this in the other thread, but Hamilton is not the kind of player you get with an offer sheet. It would be an instant match, regardless of the Bruins’ cap situation.

    They have plenty of dumpable (that’s not a word, just go with it) contracts to make the necessary room. The alternative (losing Hamilton) is worse than any version of having to make room by giving up other players for minimal returns, as players like Hamilton are nearly impossible to come by.

  18. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: what about 7.5×5?

    Two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Maybe they think Edmonton’s firsts would be worth it, or that 7.5M is too steep for Hamilton. At least gives it a chance, though I think Boston will move mountains to keep him.

    Would fit like a glove in Edmonton, would mean selling one of Hall-Eberle after the McD ELC I would bet though

    That works too.

  19. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Really…what I’m thinking is: do the B’s want to get younger and would the compensation appeal to them more than Hamilton’s current value? From PC’s perspective the OS compensation is pretty steep…so why not work out a win win trade; some picks, a prospect and a roster player for Hamilton. I don’t know want is fair value, but I think the Oil would want to dump some salary almong with sacrificing some assets would also be in Boston’s interst too.

  20. misfit says:

    I wouldn’t worry about any retaliatory OSs in the future toward our players though. We may be a target down the road, but if we are, it will have nothing to do with what offer sheets we’ve made in the past.

    Retaliation is a silly thing to worry about, and I would be shocked if Chiarelli was at all concerned about it.

  21. Really? says:

    Oiler fans are still looking for short cuts in building a Cup contending team. Offer sheeting Hamilton will be extremely costly in terms of cap and assets (lost draft picks).

    Far more open to a hockey trade that brings back an up grade on the blue line. This year we do not necessarily have to fill every hole on the roster. We do, however, have to improve that roster substantially. To my mind, that means a goalie and 2 D men this year. It does not necessarily mean a home run with a stud #1 D Man.

  22. Dennis L says:

    Woodguy,

    Posted this last night, but it’s more relevant to this thread.

    I don’t consider a potential future offer sheet to McDavid to be a significant danger, in retaliation down the line or not. It is a concern, but I think the odds are on our side. Here’s why:

    Presuming McDavid develops as projected in the first two years of his ELC, upon entering the 3rd yr of his ELC we offer to extend him and offer him the moon — maximum term, max or close-to-max salary (cap-permitting).

    1. If he signs, that takes him into his UFA years and a future offer sheet becomes moot.

    2. If he balks, you have up to a full season to line up a bidding war of trade offers.

    3. If you can’t entice him to sign a max offer, and you haven’t been able to line up a fair value trade, we still have right of first refusal if he goes RFA, and we’ve presumably planned for and offered him a max contract anyway, so matching any offer is (should be, with proper planning) a foregone conclusion.

    Scenario 3 is easily communicated after 2 years of ELC at the first extension discussion, since offering him a max contract MUST be planned for, starting now, and continuing over the next 3 years. If properly planned for, scenario 3 becomes almost moot as well — if you offer McDavid a max contract, and show that we can and will match any offer, but he won’t sign, then a fair value trade becomes almost inevitable — he knows he won’t be allowed to leave for a while, and no one wins if he sits out, so it becomes in his interest to sign or do his part to facilitate a good trade. Going the route of a shorter term second contract would be a rough and bitter process, perhaps more bitter than a forced trade scenario, one hopefully avoided by all sides.

    All the said, if you agree a McDavid offer sheet isn’t a significant danger, all things considered, potential offer sheets to our other key players, should we allow them to reach RFA status, would be a very significant danger. We’d retain the Ace, but our ranks of Jacks and Kings could get hollowed out.

  23. Woodguy says:

    HOLY SHIT SCOTTY BOWMAN!!!!

    ARE YOU GONNA TELL HIM YOU THINK THAT SAM POLLACK WAS THE DEVIL!!??!?!?!?!

  24. misfit says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Really…what I’m thinking is: do the B’s want to get younger and would the compensation appeal to them more than Hamilton’s current value? From PC’s perspective the OS compensation is pretty steep…so why not work out a win win trade; some picks, a prospect and a roster player for Hamilton. I don’t know want is fair value, but I think the Oil would want to dump some salary almong with sacrificing some assets would also be in Boston’s interst too.

    So the Bruins would achieve this goal of getting younger by trading away a 21 year old defenseman?

  25. nelson88 says:

    Ducey,

    Fair point but to win you have to take some chances and a bet on Hamilton is as good as you are going to get.

    I also don’t think it screws up your salary structure if done properly and he pans out.

    Sign Klefbom for 8 x $4M. You don’t have to pay Nurse for 3 years and his offensive ceiling may not get him huge $$$ but lets give him $5/year (and you could likely do a “bridge” much cheaper if need be)

    A realistic D corp in 3 years when you need to pay McJesus (and others)

    Klef (4), Hamilton (7)
    Nurse (5), Fayne (3.5)

    That has the potential to be a very strong top 4 for under $20M in 2018 cap dollars. Round it out with some Musil/Davidson types that have seasoned in the AHL and are relatively cheap and your golden.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    For all the annual talk about offer sheets, there has been exactly ONE offer sheet this CENTURY that wasn’t matched — this guy. Previous to him was Chris Gratton way back in 1997.

  27. Woogie63 says:

    Offer sheet is one way to get one dman.

    What would Jordan Eberle straight up get you? Josi?

    What would Jordan Eberle, #16 this year and number 1 next year get you? OEL, Jones …. Yandle + Talbot

    To get the right young dman we could package lots of assets to widen the possible choices

  28. GCW_69 says:

    Music! Fantastic. I wrote about Hamilton as a target this week and it’s a very sweet—if risky—idea. The dollars invested in Hamilton would mean the cap crunch arrives earlier than we thought but holy lord things would get fun in a quick hurry. The McDavid entry-level deal would get very interesting in a heartbeat.

    That pretty much would be the end of Yak, I think, if he is at all successful the nest two years. Its a fair price to pay, but the Oilers need to be thinking pump and dump with Yak if they tie up that much money in Hamilton with McDavid, Nurse, Leon, and Klefbom yet to be paid.

  29. GCW_69 says:

    Woogie63:
    Offer sheet is one way to get one dman.

    What would Jordan Eberle straight up get you? Josi?

    What would Jordan Eberle, #16 this year and number 1 next year get you? OEL, Jones …. Yandle + Talbot

    To get the right young dman we could package lots of assets to widen the possible choices

    RNH would get you Jones. Are you ready to fully initiate Rebuild 3.0, or go for Rebuild 2.5 and keep all the stars? Tough question, eh?

  30. speeds says:

    Really?:
    Oiler fans are still looking for short cuts in building a Cup contending team. Offer sheeting Hamilton will be extremely costly in terms of cap and assets (lost draft picks).

    Far more open to a hockey trade that brings back an up grade on the blue line. This year we do not necessarily have to fill every hole on the roster. We do, however, have to improve that roster substantially. To my mind, that means a goalie and 2 D men this year. It does not necessarily mean a home run with a stud #1 D Man.

    Hamilton is young enough that I don’t know that it qualifies as a “short cut”.

    If you got Hamilton on a 5 year deal at 7.3M, you’d be acquiring his 22-26 year old seasons, and if EDM is where everyone hopes they are in 4 years, perhaps you get him to sign another long term deal with a year left on his deal, signing him until 32-34.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Really?:
    Oiler fans are still looking for short cuts in building a Cup contending team. Offer sheeting Hamilton will be extremely costly in terms of cap and assets (lost draft picks).

    Far more open to a hockey trade that brings back an up grade on the blue line. This year we do not necessarily have to fill every hole on the roster. We do, however, have to improve that roster substantially. To my mind, that means a goalie and 2 D men this year. It does not necessarily mean a home run with a stud #1 D Man.

    not so much a shortcut as it is an opportunity. He would instantly be Edmonton’s best defenceman and best shot at a stud #1 RHD. Hamilton might be a more important piece to this team than Hall is.

  32. GCW_69 says:

    This is where Yak’s lack of success is biting the Oilers in the ass. Undoubtedly the Oilers didn’t help themselves with Yak, but if Yak was a hit right now, we could be offering Eberle, Hall or Yak for a top young defender and be okay depending on who was going and who was coming back.

    Is the best move to wait, pump Yak’s tires for a year, and then make the big move?

  33. speeds says:

    The psychology of the number a team signs Hamilton to is interesting, whether the cap number is 6.95 or 7.25 is not materially different, but you never know if, on a subconscious level, 7M might be a line in the sand BOS really doesn’t want to cross?

  34. misfit says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    For all the annual talk about offer sheets, there has been exactly ONE offer sheet this CENTURY that wasn’t matched — this guy. Previous to him was Chris Gratton way back in 1997.

    It’s the only one that was successful, but I think there have been others that may have if they were done differently (Kesler for example). But it’s definitely a rare occurrence, and it’s rare for a reason. In order for a team to successfully acquire a player via offer sheet, the moons have to align in such a way that just doesn’t happen often. I don’t think the Hamilton situation is at all close to one that would see any team getting him via offer sheet.

  35. Bar_Qu says:

    Hearing all the offer sheet proposals, it really does seem like the NHL has rigged the whole process to be prohibitive to them actually being used. 2 firsts for Hamilton feels like too much, but when it is 7×7 and becomes 4 firsts, well, you can see why no team would ever do it. Again, that’s if they could overcome their “I can’t act in a dishonorable way to another GM, even if it is totally within the rules” mentality.

    Burke is still being unkindly referred to for paying 2 firsts for Kessel even with all his production. I like the idea of an offer sheet, but I don’t think the price for Hamilton is worth it.

    I steadfastly maintain that Chiarelli has something in his mind that is outside of what we all are dreaming up. I await the surprise (though I enjoy the speculation).

  36. Snowman says:

    GCW_69,

    And then we’re back to an 18 year old # 1 center and an 18 year old # 2 center.

    How about lets keep Nuge for a while?

  37. PhrankLee says:

    Really?: Oiler fans are still looking for short cuts in building a Cup contending team. Offer sheeting Hamilton will be extremely costly in terms of cap and assets (lost draft picks).
    Far more open to a hockey trade that brings back an up grade on the blue line. This year we do not necessarily have to fill every hole on the roster. We do, however, have to improve that roster substantially. To my mind, that means a goalie and 2 D men this year. It does not necessarily mean a home run with a stud #1 D Man.

    Balanced, thoughtful development approach. Risk is staggered and spread out over time and with a farm system humming the future is looking bright. I totally agree with this if we were picking 3rd or 4th this year as we all thought we would.

    Picking first in 2015 is as big a deal as the Crosby year. A bigger deal than the Lindros year. There is no time to waste at all on a guy like Hamilton. You have to get him now. Or another elite 1D.

    In my mind the priority is 1G. I like Talbot to help now but I like the trajectory of Gibson more.

    Short term os and let it ride.

  38. Магия 10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    For all the annual talk about offer sheets, there has been exactly ONE offer sheet this CENTURY that wasn’t matched — this guy. Previous to him was Chris Gratton way back in 1997.

    This. All. Day. This isn’t the game of war where you can steal a covered ace. When an ace is in play you need to go long and the divide by 5 year rule is going to put you into Vanek for four firsts territory. The only thing stupider than that offer was Buffalo matching. Better to trade 2 firsts + then to go that route.

  39. Pajamah says:

    GCW_69: RNH would get you Jones.Are you ready to fully initiate Rebuild 3.0, or go for Rebuild 2.5 and keep all the stars?Tough question, eh?

    McD/Drai/Lander/4th line filler type (Chase, Khaira, etc.) with Seth Jones/Klef/Nurse

    Or

    RNH/McD/Drai/Lander with Klef/Nurse/Marincin

    If it is infact RNH they would move.

    Personally, anything that nets the Oilers a #1D short of trading McDavid is ok by me. They are harder to get than any other position, or a very close second to an elite goalie. If you have to move value, you move what you know. McD/Drai should end up being Crosby/Malkin if the stars align. I’d rather not see Draisaitl moved until we are sure of what he is.

    RNH or Eberle to get us a D upgrade? Sign me up.

  40. Captain Smarmy says:

    Hamilton is intriguing and I think PC is intelligent and it would be a hockey move and not sticking it to his former employer.

    Trading one of the Eberle’s or Hall’s this offseason would be really surprising to me. Its not just Oiler fans that saw a new dawn. A lot of these guys are probably very excited at the changing of the guard and chomping at the bit to get to the next level. I’m not sure Pete would be comfortable moving one of those guys in the current scenario. Next offseason I could see the gloves coming off depending on what happens next season.

  41. Hall Awaits says:

    “Estimated Cap Ceiling: $71 million
    Roster: $70.817 million
    Leon’s bonuses aren’t included so it’s tight—AND I’m assuming Talbot here as the inexpensive starter in goal. If you add Dougie Hamilton, you probably move Justin Schultz. That’s one way of fixing things. Also not sure $7M gets it done. Ideally Nikitin and Ference move too, and the Oilers find useful replacements.”

    The great thing is how much will be coming off the books next summer. Nikitin (please buy him out before, Chia), Purcell, Gordon and Scrivens. Tons of flexibility next summer with contracts. I imagine Klefbom will get the Brodin or Hamonic deal, Ference will be buried after this season and Schultz could be pumped and dumped early on if he plays half decent.

    I have this strong feeling Chia is going to nuke the defence to orbit this summer.

    At least that’s the hope!!!

  42. Marc says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    For all the annual talk about offer sheets, there has been exactly ONE offer sheet this CENTURY that wasn’t matched — this guy. Previous to him was Chris Gratton way back in 1997.

    Yup. The team signing a player to an offer sheet almost never benefits from doing so, because the offer sheet is almost always matched.

    The only teams that actually benefit from an offer sheet being made are the ones who subsequently trade with the victim of the offer sheet, as they know that team is in a terrible bargaining position.

    If Chia offer sheets Hamilton, he’ll screw over the team that fired him, but he’ll almost certainly fail to improve the Oilers in any way by doing so. If he let’s someone else offer sheet Hamilton however, then picks up a useful vet for a handful of beans, that actually helps the Oilers.

  43. Jon K says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Scotty Bowman, eh. I fully expect you to ask him WTF were the Hawks thinking trading for Kimmo Timonen when Jeff Petry was available.

    No kidding. They would have paid less, and you know, got an actual player. Imagine Petry anchoring the Hawks’ bottom pairing. They wouldn’t need to be playing the top 2 D pairs 52 minutes a night.

    Loved Timonen as a player after the 05/06 lockout. But that was ten years ago and it looks like the bottom has fallen out.

  44. hags9k says:

    Scotty Bowman! Wow atta boy LT, keep crushin it.

  45. russ99 says:

    BTW: There’s another goalie on the market we could chase after, and after his season, we could acquire him cheaper than other options:

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-stars/headlines/20150609-stars-reportedly-shopping-kari-lehtonen-should-the-team-trade-him.ece

  46. Hall Awaits says:

    russ99:
    BTW: There’s another goalie on the market we could chase after, and after his season, we could acquire him cheaper than other options:

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-stars/headlines/20150609-stars-reportedly-shopping-kari-lehtonen-should-the-team-trade-him.ece

    That cap hit and salary though…woof.

    #InTalbotWeTrust

  47. slopitch says:

    Woodguy:
    PREDICTION:

    Chiarelli uses threat of an offer sheet (not just his threat, but threat of other teams) to get Chara out of BOS for Marincin and a 3rd.

    BOOK IT!!!

    Agreed. But keep the Slovaks together. Move another dman.

    I think Oilers would need to offer 7.35 to get to the higher tier in order to Boston to walk on Hamilton.

    Ottawa essentially moved Bishop because they thought Lehner was better. These Swedes are late bloomers. Id roll the dice on Lehner.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Really?:
    Oiler fans are still looking for short cuts in building a Cup contending team. Offer sheeting Hamilton will be extremely costly in terms of cap and assets (lost draft picks).

    Far more open to a hockey trade that brings back an up grade on the blue line. This year we do not necessarily have to fill every hole on the roster. We do, however, have to improve that roster substantially. To my mind, that means a goalie and 2 D men this year. It does not necessarily mean a home run with a stud #1 D Man.

    An offer sheet amounts to trading picks for a player.

    How is that different than trading picks and players for a player?

    Its not a short cut.

    Its a different mechanism for the same result.

  49. Rational Zealot says:

    With the numbers being thrown around here I wouldn’t worry about the Bruins matching, I’d worry about them not matching.

    The draft picks really are a poison pill.

    Calculate what Hamilton would get as a UFA. Whatever that number is, that’s the ceiling of his value. Let’s say it is 7 years x 8 million dollars.

    If you sign Hamilton to an offer sheet as an RFA it is going to be less than. Let’s say, as bandied about here, you sign him for 7 x 7. So you’ve gotten him at a $1 million discount x 7 years, but you also have to pay the price of picks.

    So the equation is easy.

    On one side you have UFA salary – Offer sheet salary = Hamilton Profit.

    On the other side you have value of draft picks.

    If “Hamilton profit” is bigger than “value of draft picks,” then you have made a good deal.

    No matter what hypothetical numbers you insert I find it hard to imagine the numbers working out in favour of the offer sheet. In any case, if the compensation includes more than one first round pick it is a terrible deal.

  50. slopitch says:

    Actually I think the only way to get Hamilton is a strong armed trade.

  51. Washingtron says:

    Do the Bruins have any other useful players that having to match on Hamilton would shake loose? People who are cap cuspers but would need to be sent packing if the Bru had to pay Hambone 7.5? Someone like Chara though his age/health worries me. Though I have been trading for him in every EA NHL game since he came into the league and I can attest to the fact he looks awesome in the world’s largest Oilers jersey. Surely THAT has to be worth something!!

  52. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy:
    Ignoring the fact that it hasn’t happened in the history of the NHL.

    As someone pointed out, it has.

    Also, even if it didn’t doesn’t mean it won’t. Especially against a team like the Oilers who are running headlong into a wall of cap trouble in three years with a roster full of young, high end talent.

    You’re leaning on this crutch far too much.

  53. Jon K says:

    Woodguy:
    PREDICTION:

    Chiarelli uses threat of an offer sheet (not just his threat, but threat of other teams) to get Chara out of BOS for Marincin and a 3rd.

    BOOK IT!!!

    Honestly, if Chara can be procured for anything remotely reasonable (i.e. not the core, Nurse, Klefbom, or Draisaitl), I’d seriously consider bringing him on.

    He’s not going to be the Norris candidate he was in previous years and he’s only got two years on his contract, but the mentorship and temporary stability he could provide in those two years would be invaluable.

    Nurse learning the game from Chara for two seasons? Drool worthy.

    EDIT: I think it’s two years? The pseudo capgeek seems to indicate three more but its numbers seem wonky.

    http://capgeek.org/zdeno-chara-nhl-salary-contract-history/

  54. gogliano says:

    A real economic approach to all this would see teams throwing out offer sheets to compel irrational teams to match and thereby weaken their relative position in the NHL talent pool. Forcing Boston to match for Hamilton at $7 million is a win if (1) Boston would have had him for less and (2) there aren’t other costs to the offer sheet (e.g. reputational costs for Chia/Oilers).

    Whether offer sheets ultimately pay or not is a question, but I’ve always been struck that there isn’t one renegade GM out there forcing teams to pay a premium for their players so that there are fewer sharks swimming in the UFA/trade waters.

  55. Jesse says:

    If you’re getting Hamilton (and thus surrendering the compensatory picks) then you’ve got your 1D and can hang on to most (if not all) of your picks this year, hopefully stocking the cupboards and making the loss of the subsequent years’ draft picks more palatable. Sign Sekera or other at UFA and you’re in great shape. All for money (and a few picks).

  56. Aitch says:

    Hamilton is a pipe dream. And, I’m not convinced he’s any better than Klefbom in the long run. Hamilton had a legit first pairing mentor, while Klefbom has “struggled” with a few injuries and a lack of a legit mentor. I certainly wouldn’t be throwing $7 million in cap space and a bevy of first rounders at him. Two inches taller and a little more experienced isn’t enough for me to pull the trigger. Other than that, they could turn into the equivalent players.

  57. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Магия 10: This. All. Day. This isn’t the game of war where you can steal a covered ace. When an ace is in play you need to go long and the divide by 5 year rule is going to put you into Vanek for four firsts territory. The only thing stupider than that offer was Buffalo matching. Better to trade 2 firsts + then to go that route.

    This all day long. The four firsts Oilers would have paid for Vanek ultimately became Myers, Paajarvi, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins. You think Oilers are at the bottom of a mine shaft now? Just imagine.

    I remember being very thankful that Darcy Regier got mad & matched on the first day. I was petrified that he would just say “we’ll take the picks, thank you very much”.

  58. LMHF#1 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This all day long. The four firsts Oilers would have paid for Vanek ultimately became Myers, Paajarvi, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins. You think Oilers are at the bottom of a mine shaft now? Just imagine.

    You can’t make that extrapolation. It would have been an altered team and approach.

  59. neojanus says:

    I see no reason not to make an offer. Okay, if Boston matches then the Oilers put them in a brutal cap situation and force them to move assets, making Boston a weaker team.

    It is a shitty thing to do, but is well within the rules. Teams should be using RFA offers as a strategy in a cap crunch world, not only to try to pry great players out, but also with the added bonus that financial woe is inflicted upon another team if they match.

    Maybe Boston doesn’t match and the Oilers end up with the #1 D we’ve needed since fall 2006. I’d happily give up the draft picks.

    Apart from pissing off the organization that fired your new GM/POHO, where’s the downside?

  60. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: As someone pointed out, it has.

    Also, even if it didn’t doesn’t mean it won’t.Especially against a team like the Oilers who are running headlong into a wall of cap trouble in three years with a roster full of young, high end talent.

    You’re leaning on this crutch far too much.

    Crutch??

    Haha!!

    I could give a shit if someone wants to retaliate.

    A good GM gets his key RFA’s signed before July 1.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: An offer sheet amounts to trading picks for a player.

    How is that different than trading picks and players for a player?

    Its not a short cut.

    Its a different mechanism for the same result.

    It’s more like a hostile takeover bid than a negotiation.

  62. prairieschooner says:

    Chara is 38 years old, how practical of a signing would be be?

    If we are going big game hunting Martin Marincin with a possible 1m salary becomes very valuable to the Oilers

  63. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers are offer-sheeting Hamilton on July 2, they have to extend Klefbom first on July 1 for 8 x $4 million, or Klefbom’s likely price goes up after the offer sheet.

  64. misfit says:

    PhrankLee: Balanced, thoughtful development approach. Risk is staggered and spread out over time and with a farm system humming the future is looking bright. I totally agree with this if we were picking 3rd or 4th this year as we all thought we would.

    Picking first in 2015 is as big a deal as the Crosby year. A bigger deal than the Lindros year.There is no time to waste at all on a guy like Hamilton. You have to get him now. Or another elite 1D.

    In my mind the priority is 1G.I like Talbot to help now but I like the trajectory of Gibson more.

    Short term os and let it ride.

    It took 3 years for the Pens to win after getting Crosby. Their defense in that year’s playoffs was:

    Gonchar – Orpik (“first pairing”)
    Scuderi – Gill (DZ/shut-down pair)
    Eaton – Letang (OZ/soft minutes pair)

    Gonchar (34) – Signed as a UFA the year Crosby was drafted (3 seasons prior)
    Orpik (27) – Drafted by PIT 8 years earlier (5 years earlier than Sid)
    Scuderi (29) – Drafted 10 years earlier by PIT (though he and Crosby shared a rookie year)
    Gill (33) – Acquired by trade from TO (for a 2nd and a 5th) in the Crosby -1 season
    Eaton (31) – I think he was a UFA signing. He was added going into Crosby’s sophomore season
    Letang (21) – 3rd round pick from Crosby’s draft year. He was a sophomore himself coming off a 17 point rookie campaign.

    The defense was almost exactly the same the year prior with the only exception being Whitney instead of Eaton (even the pairings were the same).

    We don’t have a Gonchar. An established top pairing defenseman who can move the puck and QB the powerplay. He was thought of as an offensive specialist at the time though without much of a two-way game until he was handed the reigns in PIT. Modern day equivalent would be someone like Green, I guess, though Gonchar was the league’s top offensive defenseman for years, and Green falls well short of that. Keith Yandle surprisingly enough, might be a closer comparable based on his past production.

    Petry should’ve ben our Orpik, but we sent him away for nothing. Klefbom might end up being better.

    Fayne probably qualifies in the Scuderi or Gill role, but I would imagine both were on value contracts. Fayne isn’t overpaid, I just wouldn’t call it a steal.

    The other Gill/Scuderi is currently missing, but could also be a deadline add or UFA signing. If we add Sekera, I would definitely say we have this pairing in the bag going forward.

    Nurse is probably our Letang and Schultz our Whitney. There is no Eaton on this team (very underrated player with the Preds and a smart signing at the time for the Pens).

    To follow the Pens model…

    Klefbom – Green (“1st pair”)
    Sekera – Fayne (DZ/shut-down pair)
    Nurse – Schultz* (OZ/soft-minutes pair)

    *Schultz later traded and replaced by a UFA like Polak next offseason

  65. Woogie63 says:

    GCW_69,

    I see this as the opposite of a rebuild ….a rebuild would be trade your top asset for draft picks.

    I am saying trade a top asset and draft picks to make yourself better/different now.

  66. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    McDavid hanging out with a couple of other players…

    https://twitter.com/SAMMYSAYS2010/status/608445902227972096/photo/1

  67. hunter1909 says:

    Hangovers + Hair of the Dog coming up preclude any in depth opinions re Offer Sheets, other than to say they stink just as much as trading Yakupov/Eberle away.

    More trolling. Clickbait, lol.

  68. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    hunter1909: Hangovers + Hair of the Dog coming up

    Hunter… Stockton Thompson?

  69. hunter1909 says:

    For a fan base that’s endured the torments of Tantacles since 1991, there are still some bent on liquoring themselves up before heading off to the NHL casino – expecting to gamble their way to a Stanley Cup.

    History and common sense show it’s never wise to enter any stakes game/situation expecting to lose and these offer sheets/trading away the number 1 picks do seem to enter the trade arena WANTING to lose, in the vain hope of “somehow” “winning” these terribad trade/offer sheet scenarios.

    I blame Lowe+MacTavish. Their gross incompetence as hockey men has forever and finally been exposed, like turning over a Glaswegian rock and finding wee beasties crawling about. It’s they who constantly date-raped/generally abused this fan base. With asinine decisions, 2/3 of the time. Penner’s Offer sheet, the Visnovsky scandal, Whitney that broken down defenceman with the ankles, Cogliano, Souray, Pronger, Smid, Petry, Gagner…an endless number of flat out moronic decisions.

  70. hunter1909 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Hunter… Stockton Thompson?

    Amsterdam lager.

  71. Pouzar says:

    Either way…getting it out there that Chia is considering an OS is good stuff….

    “you want compensation? I’ll give youuuuuu compensation!”

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LMHF#1: You can’t make that extrapolation. It would have been an altered team and approach.

    Oh sure, that’s why I said “the picks that ultimately became…”

    Vanek would have turned the team’s salary structure on its ear at very questionable value for money, before even beginning to consider acquisition cost.

    One of the puzzling aspects of the Oilers annual Great Whale Hunt was their fixation on wingers: Vanek, Penner, Hossa, Heatley. A strange way to build a team.

  73. misfit says:

    If Hamilton was 3rd or 4th on the Bruins’ depth chart and they had their top 2/3 locked up long term, then I could see an offer sheet being a good option. Of course, we’d still have to see him as a player who would sit at the top of our depth chart on defense and we willing to offer him a salary that coincides with that.

    At the very least, you need the above to be true for the OS to be successful. And since he’s squarely at the top of their defensive depth chart (along with Chara, but unquestionably #1 among RDs), Boston would have no interest in trading him in for draft picks.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Jon K: Honestly, if Chara can be procured for anything remotely reasonable (i.e. not the core, Nurse, Klefbom, or Draisaitl), I’d seriously consider bringing him on.

    He’s not going to be the Norris candidate he was in previous years and he’s only got two years on his contract, but the mentorship and temporary stability he could provide in those two years would be invaluable.

    Nurse learning the game from Chara for two seasons? Drool worthy.

    EDIT: I think it’s two years? The pseudo capgeek seems to indicate three more but its numbers seem wonky.

    http://capgeek.org/zdeno-chara-nhl-salary-contract-history/

    Waronice.com is the new go to for salaries:

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/

    These guys have freaking everything.

    Chara is 3 more years at $6.9 cap and if he retires early the cap recapture is on BOS.

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/charazd77.html

  75. LoDog says:

    I’d be more worried about the Bruins not matching. 7+ million for a very unproven 21 year old and a massive forfeiture of draft picks? No thanks.

  76. Johnny Larue says:

    Offer sheet is not going to happen thank god we need to trust PC knows what he is doing and gets us a decent goalie and a defenseman. We need to see what we have with TMac in charge before we start running around half cocked making crazy deals trading valuable assests and handcuffing or dooming ourselves via the cap by overpaying . As much as it pains me to say we have to stay the course we can see the light atthe end of the tunnel and it is no time to do anything rash. We are about to reap the reward for our long suffering just a little more patience is required.

  77. PhrankLee says:

    misfit,

    Nice post. Petry was a huge mistake. Just awful.

    I am of the thinking that to get you gotta give. So if I want money in the bank on the back end, I’m going to have to give up money in the bank on the front end.

    I like Eberle for Josi.

    Edit: I bet on Yak to cover this bet.

  78. murray says:

    Trading for Chara would be a huge mistake. In the cap world you can’t pay aging players based on what they’ve done in the past. He’s old and was injured last year, something that is likely to continue as he gets older. If the Bruins were amateur they would have traded him last year instead of Boychuck. It’s better to get ride of a player a year or two to early than a year too late.

  79. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Waronice.com is the new go to for salaries:

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/

    These guys have freaking everything.

    Chara is 3 more years at $6.9 cap and if he retires early the cap recapture is on BOS.

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/charazd77.html

    I don’t believe Chara’s contract is subject to cap recapture penalties.

    http://war-on-ice.com/buyout.html

  80. Pouzar says:

    LoDog: I’d be more worried about the Bruins not matching. 7+ million for a very unproven 21 year old and a massive forfeiture of draft picks? No thanks.

    Very unproven? Care to add some specifics?

    2014/15:
    QofcC(rel Corsi) 0.98
    Off Zone Start %: 47.50
    TOI per Game: 17.07
    Corsi On: 11.87

    That’s Bright Big Blue Bubbles in the shutdown quadrant. And his P/60 is 1.12 which is highest on the team for a d-man.

    3 Year WOWY:

    Hamilton:
    with Chara – 56.4%
    without Chara – 54.2%

    Chara:
    without Hamilton: 53.8

    Hamilton is legit.
    And Chara is still damn good too.

  81. G Money says:

    Before you can even mull on what an offer sheet could be or should be, you need to understand the context of the player and the team.

    In order to get signed, an offer sheet *has* to be an overpay to make the player willing to forgo negotiation with his current team.

    To have a shot at making it work, it also has to be higher than what the current team is willing and able to pay that player.

    So … what is Hamilton actually worth on the market today?

    What would BOS be willing to pay him?

    Is there common ground between the two?

    In other words, without contemplating an offer sheet, what is it likely that BOS and Hamilton agree to?

    Jeff Petry just signed a 6 x $5.5M deal as a UFA.

    Hamilton’s ceiling is way higher than that, but that trades off against his RFA status. (Then again, RFA has no meaning if an offer sheet comes through)

    So what’s his number?

    $5M x 6? $6M x 5? $6 x 6?

    Because you take whatever that is, add some generous combination of term and dollars, and that’s your starting point. I’d guess that $7M+ and 7 years is the ticket. So that’s what you’ll be paying a 21 y.o. defenseman who is 1st on his team on P/60, 3rd on his team in TOI, and 2nd in QoC.

    He’s awfully good, but you’re paying absolutely full ticket for that player, and giving up four first round picks to boot.

    BOLD to be sure.

    BOLD GOOD or BOLD BAD I’m not so sure.

  82. Jaxon says:

    If they’re trading for a RD, there are plenty young RD around the league that are completely under the radar and have some great up arrows and NHLEs. Players that you try to get thrown in with bigger NHL pieces in play. Buffalo has Mark Pysyk, Montreal has Dalton Thrower, Islanders have Ryan Pulock, Minnesota has Jared Spurgeon and Matt Dumba, Washington has Madison Bowey, New Jersey has Adam Larsson, Damon Severson and Steven Santini, Florida has Alex Petrovic, Boston has Matt Benning, St Louis has Colton Parayko and Jordan Schmaltz, and Chicago has Michael Paliota. I think those are players that the Oilers should be keeping an eye out when making any deals. Players that will grow with the core and shouldn’t cost much as they are still unestablished but also have great potential. If the Islanders are trying to get rid of Grabner, then maybe Pulock can be shaken loose with him.

  83. OF17 says:

    LT, gotta echo some of the other comments. Huge congratulations on getting Bowman on the show. That’s incredible! You’ve worked hard to put forth a good radio product, and the show has grown to the point where you’re interviewing one of the biggest names in hockey during one of the most difficult times to get an interview with him (while his team is in the SCF). Bravo!!!

    On the hockey talk front, I’m really starting to warm to the idea of Lehtonen. Yeah, he’s expensive and signed for 3 years, but this is his recent GP and SV% history.

    14/15: 63GP .903 SV%
    13/14: 65GP .919 SV%
    12/13: 36GP .916 SV%
    11/12: 59GP .921 SV%
    10/11: 69GP .914 SV%

    You want to talk about buying low on a starting goaltender, Lehtonen is the poster boy for it. We have reports that he’s available for “30 or 40 cents on the dollar,” and if his play regresses to its five-year mean, we’re going to get 60 pretty damn good starts from those 40 cents.

    Trevor Daley is also rumored to be available for relatively little. Maybe swing a deal for the two of them? Nikitin + Marincin + EDM 2nd 2015 for Lehtonen + Daley, or something like that. What would it take?

  84. Doug McLachlan says:

    LMHF#1,

    Not saying we win the Cup if we got Vanek but let’s assume we finish marginally ahead of where we did. What are the four firsts then?

  85. Johnny Larue says:

    murray: Trading for Chara would be a huge mistake. In the cap world you can’t pay aging players based on what they’ve done in the past. He’s old and was injured last year, something that is likely to continue as he gets older. If the Bruins were amateur they would have traded him last year instead of Boychuck. It’s better to get ride of a player a year or two to early than a year too late.

    Who is takiing about overpaying I think he could be had quite resonably if not forget it. Also if I here about signing Justin Williams anymore I will scream that would be a huge mistake.

  86. LoDog says:

    Pouzar,

    He’s 21 and not enough of a track record for me.

    Sure, he seems legit but that kind of money and term and loss of draft picks would likely not be worth it IMO.

  87. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy: Crutch??

    Haha!!

    I could give a shit if someone wants to retaliate.

    A good GM gets his key RFA’s signed before July 1.

    It’s a crutch, yes. Like “no reactor has ever been hit by a tsunami”.

    Your second argument makes the assumption that it’s in the GM’s power to sign somebody. What if he’s cap-crunched? What if he runs into a Ritch Winter/Ryan Johansen combo trying to break the glass ceiling on RFA contracts? Say McDavid posts an Art Ross/Hart season in his third year and wants Toews money.

    Stop assuming best-case. That’s Rumsfeld in Iraq thinking.

  88. OF17 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Oh sure, that’s why I said “the picks that ultimately became…”

    Vanek would have turned the team’s salary structure on its ear at very questionable value for money, before even beginning to consider acquisition cost.

    One of the puzzling aspects of the Oilers annual Great Whale Hunt was their fixation on wingers: Vanek, Penner, Hossa, Heatley. A strange way to build a team.

    You gotta remember, those Vanek and Penner sheets and Heatley attempt were all trying to fill the LW hole beside Horcoff and Hemsky. It wasn’t just “get the biggest mofo on the block,” it was “get the biggest mofo we can to finish Hemsky’s passes.” It wasn’t a decision made in a vacuum to build from the wings out.

    Hossa was different. He was just the biggest guy available that offseason, and like flies to light, Katz and Lowe couldn’t not go for it.

  89. Woodguy says:

    LoDog:
    I’d be more worried about the Bruins not matching. 7+ million for a very unproven 21 year old and a massive forfeiture of draft picks? No thanks.

    Very unproven is not a correct assessment of Hamilton.

    Both Chara and Seidenburg (his two most common partners) were significantly better in CF% with him than without him.

    He’s played the toughs for 2 year (albeit mostly with Chara) and has done well.

    The fact that his two main partners were better at tough minutes with him than without him in his 21 year old year is massive.

    6’5″, 220lb RH

  90. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    LoDog: He’s 21 and not enough of a track record for me.

    For accuracy, his birthday is mid June, if I recall. So he’s really 22.

  91. Rational Zealot says:

    G Money,

    Exactly. Multiple first round draft picks for the right to have someone eat up $7 million in cap space is a bad idea.

    I could get behind the first, second, and third round picks as compensation. But once it reaches two first round picks you are entering crazy town.

    It’s like trading Dion Phaneuf, two first round picks, a second round pick, and a third round pick for Doug Hamilton.

    I’d rather have Hamilton than Phaneuf, but I”d much rather have side A of that equation than side B.

  92. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Problem with the offersheet isn’t the offersheet or retaliation fears.

    The problem is that the lineup even with Hamilton in it, that’s not a playoff team and Oilers are up against the cap so can’t make other improvements. You’re giving up a lottery pick and then some. If the Oilers had a better blue line and goal resolved and were knocking on the playoff door, this move makes way more sense. But not now.

    Also, Woogie, Eberle doesn’t get you Josi. Josi is too good and that contract is too good.

    Also, LT, congrats on Scotty Bowman. That’s awesome.

    Also, I like the idea of Lack for a second as well. Prefer him to Lehner in fact.

  93. bendelson says:

    Firstly, I’d like to high jack the thread for a moment and say a quick thank you to those that helped ease my stress over my wife’s PhD defence. You were collectively correct, it was largely ceremonial and in the end, not something to get overly worked up about. Just “let them know you’re there” to quote LT.
    I’m thrilled to report she convocated yesterday, and alas, this chapter of our lives has officially closed.

    Damn Victoria is a great town! It makes us both wonder, why on earth did we leave?? Oh right… Those darn Alberta jobs! I’m off to take my father-in-law to the inner harbour now – should be interesting (quite the character).

    Scotty Bowman!?! Nicely done LT!
    Lehner? At a lower cost than what Ottawa is suggesting – absolutely.
    Now, I know his numbers suggest a middling goaler, but some food for thought:
    His numbers sank after Ottawa extended Anderson. I look at Lehner and I see Dubnyk a couple of years back… Don’t fuck with the confidence of young goalers! It’s very hard to develop in a straight line, as we all know too well.
    Lehtinen? I don’t mind this move if the acquisition cost is very low (and it should be).

    Cheers all! Off to see ‘Darth Violinist’ do his thing…

  94. Rational Zealot says:

    Recent UFA signings.

    Jeff Petry 5.5 M
    Matt Niskanen 5.75 M
    Matt Carle 5.5 M
    Brooks Orpik 5.5 M
    James Wisniewski 5.5 M
    Jay Bouwmeester 5.4 M
    Jason Garrisson 4.6 M
    Anton Stralman 4.5 M (what a steal)

    Some of these guys are bad contracts, but even so you are better off signing a UFA and keeping the picks then paying Hamilton UFA money and losing the picks. At $7 M a season he would, by my quick count, the eighth highest paid defenseman in the league. The opportunity cost here is quite large even without the picks.

  95. VanOil says:

    The figures on a Hamilton offer sheet look like to big a gulp in money and compensation. But I like the idea.

    I acknowledge NYoil’s last year was the time to move on Adam Larsson because now Jersey know what they have but I would test there confidence.

    Offer Adam Larsson the Hall, Eberle, Nuge special 6M x 7 years Jersey might not like him that much. I think over 7 years that would prove a value contract. A Klefbom-Larsson pairing would be the rock on which a good defense could be base for a decade.

  96. Ducey says:

    Pouzar: Very unproven? Care to add some specifics?

    2014/15:
    QofcC(rel Corsi) 0.98
    Off Zone Start %: 47.50
    TOI per Game: 17.07
    Corsi On: 11.87

    That’s Bright Big Blue Bubbles in the shutdown quadrant. And his P/60 is 1.12 which is highest on the team for a d-man.

    3 Year WOWY:

    Hamilton:
    with Chara – 56.4%
    without Chara –54.2%

    Chara:
    without Hamilton: 53.8

    Hamilton is legit.
    And Chara is still damn good too.

    Is he the 16th best player in hockey? Because if you give him $7.3 M a year, that’s what you are paying him as.

  97. PhrankLee says:

    DId you just end up giving the pizza to Terry Jones again, LT? ha

  98. OF17 says:

    VanOil:
    The figures on a Hamilton offer sheet look like to big a gulp in money and compensation. But I like the idea.

    I acknowledge NYoil’s last year was the time to move on Adam Larsson because now Jersey know what they have but I would test there confidence.

    Offer Adam Larsson the Hall, Eberle, Nuge special 6M x 7 years Jersey might not like him that much. I think over 7 years that would prove a value contract. A Klefbom-Larsson pairing would be the rock on which a good defense could be base for a decade.

    That would be 4 1sts. Larsson is not worth 4 1sts.

    Total amount of dollars divided by total years or by 5 if total years are bigger than 5.

    EDIT: It wouldn’t actually be 4 1sts. It’d be $10,000 short of it, so 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Still a very high price to pay. Might be worth it, who knows. I’d probably rather trade Yakupov + for him though.

  99. Ducey says:

    Here is an interesting chart showing the chances of each teams’ picks playing 200 NHL games.

    The Oilers are #1!
    https://twitter.com/omgitsdomi/status/608654823580286976/photo/1

  100. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: It’s a crutch, yes.Like “no reactor has ever been hit by a tsunami”.

    Your second argument makes the assumption that it’s in the GM’s power to sign somebody.What if he’s cap-crunched?What if he runs into a Ritch Winter/Ryan Johansen combo trying to break the glass ceiling on RFA contracts?Say McDavid posts an Art Ross/Hart season in his third year and wants Toews money.

    Stop assuming best-case.That’s Rumsfeld in Iraq thinking.

    Rumsfeld?

    Get a grip.

    You’re free to think what you want as am I.

    I didn’t direct my first comment at you and you chose to engage.

    If you make decisions based on fear, that’s entirely up to you.

  101. OF17 says:

    VanOil,

    5 x $6 million would be a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which is a pretty steep price to pay. You’re basically saying, “This player is worth tanking almost an entire draft for.”

    Here’s the compensation levels: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015-free-agents.html

  102. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: Is he the 16th best player in hockey? Because if you give him $7.3 M a year, that’s what you are paying him as.

    Pretty damn good at 21 wouldn’t you say?

    If the name were Seth Jones some here would be falling all over themselves to offer sheet him.

  103. hunter1909 says:

    Maybe Justin Schultz shows up and becomes Paul Coffey.

  104. OF17 says:

    hunter1909:
    Maybe Justin Schultz shows up and becomes Paul Coffey.

    Only catch is it’s present-day Paul Coffey.

  105. Truth says:

    I agree with Brian Burke that offer sheets unnecessarily raise the prices of contracts and that they should be avoided at all costs. If the Oilers want Hamilton then make a reasonable offer.

    You have to think that throwing out offer sheets is the worst idea for the Oilers at this time. Who’s to say a struggling team with deep pockets would not throw out a $18M/year offer on McDavid in a few years. There’s a chance it might happen without throwing an offer sheet out first, however human beings are generally vindictive.

    How about:

    Eberle, 16th overall, 33 overall, Marincin
    for
    Hamilton and Lucic

    The common belief is Lucic is going downhill fast. The Oilers need the Lucic of 5 years ago in a very bad way. Maybe he turns it around, maybe not. He can still play in the Oilers top 6.

  106. Hammers says:

    Woodguy:
    PREDICTION:

    Chiarelli uses threat of an offer sheet (not just his threat, but threat of other teams) to get Chara out of BOS for Marincin and a 3rd.

    BOOK IT!!!

    Only problem I see isChara maybe the one player who could turn Marincin into a top 3 D .

  107. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: Pretty damn good at 21 wouldn’t you say?

    If the name were Seth Jones some here would be falling all over themselves to offer sheet him.

    He’s way better than Jones too.

    Hamilton is a year older.

    Jones might catch up, but today it’s not close.

  108. misfit says:

    hunter1909:
    Maybe Justin Schultz shows up and becomes Paul Coffey.

    I received a Justin Schultz jersey this year as a gift, so this is my vote. I was all for trading him up to that point…now he simply has to turn the ship around and become Sergei Zubov in one offseason.

    EDIT – Funny thing about Zubov. He was just entering his sophomore NHL season when he was 24, the same age Schultz is now. Surely that means we can expect 77 points from him next year.

  109. Truth says:

    OF17: Only catch is it’s present-day Paul Coffey.

    I’d take it.

  110. rickithebear says:

    nelson88: A realistic D corp in 3 years when you need to pay McJesus (and others)
    Klef (4), Hamilton (7)
    Nurse (5), Fayne (3.5)

    Klefbom in an offensive role was a 37 EVP Pace.
    top 3 for EVp Dmen.
    if he continues to be a top 5 EVp D.
    That makes him a top 30 Point Dman with zero PP pts.
    2nd unit PProle gets him 10+ PPPT
    that averages top 12.

    There are alot of so called elite young D that have not had a top3 EVp 20 game stretch.
    we cannot say they have that high a ceiling.
    after next year we maybe paying a lot of money to keep Klefbom.

  111. spoiler says:

    So the likely outcome of Boston’s capstrung scenario is they either trade away a forward in his 20s, like Lucic or Marchand, possibly Eriksson. Or they trade away their 38yo Captain. And I’m sure there are NM/NT clauses involved.

    In that scenario, trading Chara seems to be the one that will do them the most good, although there are things like loyalty involved and he is their Captian and Leader, he sets the culture of that room.

    If so, is Neely likely to make that trade with the man he fired–who has a new job and trying to make himself look good there?

    Hard to say, as we have no idea whether there was any personal animosity involved on the Bruins end (certainly the man who was fired probably had some negative feelings). But I would say although we are a safe WC outlet, that maybe Neely might prefer to offer Chara to Chia’s rival down the QEII or on the left coast. That way he doesn’t look stupid for firing him when Chia has success.

  112. ironsight says:

    Woodguy,

    WG – Chara’s not 3 more years at $6.9, its 2 more years at $6.9 then year 3 is just $4m.

    Honestly, if you could work a deal around Ference for Chara without giving up a ton, the marginal increase cap hit is small enough to eliminate most of the risk of acquiring the aging giant.

  113. Ducey says:

    Apparently LA wants to trade Mike Richards and will add in a sweetener.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/report-los-angeles-kings-seeking-trade-for-mike-richards/

    Richards and Martin Jones for a bag of pucks?

    Its a lot of salary to take on (5 x 5.75), but Richards could likely play 3rd line wing this year. He is only 30 and has a ton of experience. Maybe he could take on the Gordon role in a year or two?

    It solves the G problem without giving any assets (well the bag and some pucks).

    I am not convinced its a good deal, but this is another opportunity to take advantage of an over spender.

  114. McJeetz says:

    I Think Boston would like to move 38yr old Chara and his 6.9 mil cap hit for the next 3 years. I think any trade with Chara in it would be considered a salary dump at this point. My offer would be:

    J Schultz + Yakapov + 2016 1st (potential lottery) for Chara and Hamilton.
    Then sign Hamilton for 6 mil x 8yrs.

    Top 4 would be:
    Chara Hamilton
    Klefbom Fayne

    Bottom 2 would be
    Marincin Ference

    with Nurse knocking on the door

  115. Barcs says:

    Completely off-topic, but I have been catching up on my draft reading and had a question for LT.

    I listened to your mock draft show on Saturday (very well done!). When the Oilers’ pick at 16 came up, you went with Svechnikov, and Almeida went with Merkley. Both great choices.

    I was a little surprised not to hear mention of Denis Guryanov there.

    This is from RLR (article link here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2015/06/08/nhl-draft-forward-prospects-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel/28687005/ ):

    “Russian sharpshooter Denis Guryanov has, without question, the most powerful shot in the draft. The puck explodes off his stick and handcuffs even top netminders. Guryanov is also a powerful skater who accelerates instantly to top speed. While he’s likely to slide a bit in the draft due to the “Russian factor,” he may be the best pure sniper available this year.”

    He is a 6’2″ 195 lbs RW with a left handed shot.

    I have to think that if Guryanov wasn’t a Russian playing in Russia that he would be a top 10 player in this draft.

    If he fell because of the Russian Factor, I would love to see him go at 16.

    And congrats on the Scotty Bowman coup!

  116. Barcs says:

    Some truly impressive forwards will be on the board when the Oilers make their second pick, I pray that they don’t pick a D-man for need if there are better forwards still on the board.

    My hopeful draft:
    #1: CMD
    #16: Guryanov/Barzal/Svechnikov
    #33: Kylington (hoping he falls)

    Would also like to see the team move up from 57 to grab Anthony Beavillier. He is my pick for biggest sleeper in the draft, those shot totals are outstanding.

    Obviously I prefer boom/bust picks.

    Some of these players could be absolute monsters with the upside they have.

  117. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: He’s way better than Jones too.Hamilton is a year older.Jones might catch up, but today it’s not close.

    That’s what I am getting at. Not trying to slam Jones. They are doing things right with him in NSH. I just think people get enamoured with certain “names” and don’t dive into the numbers to see what’s really going on. What Hamilton has done up to this point is and at that age is not getting enough credit here imo.

  118. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Maybe the OS rumour is just a scare tactic to get Bos to move off the compensation for ChiaPet.

  119. Rational Zealot says:

    Truth:
    I agree with Brian Burke that offer sheets unnecessarily raise the prices of contracts and that they should be avoided at all costs.If the Oilers want Hamilton then make a reasonable offer.

    You have to think that throwing out offer sheets is the worst idea for the Oilers at this time.Who’s to say a struggling team with deep pockets would not throw out a $18M/year offer on McDavid in a few years.There’s a chance it might happen without throwing an offer sheet out first, however human beings are generally vindictive.

    How about:

    Eberle, 16th overall, 33 overall, Marincin
    for
    Hamilton and Lucic

    The common belief is Lucic is going downhill fast.The Oilers need the Lucic of 5 years ago in a very bad way.Maybe he turns it around, maybe not.He can still play in the Oilers top 6.

    Good lord that is an awful trade for the Oilers. No reasonable person could think that is a good idea. Lucic has minimal value, the #33 pick maybe.

    That means Eberle, the #16 pick and Marincin for Hamilton. That’s simply dreadful.

  120. vinotintazo says:

    Ducey,

    5 years is too much at that price. No thanks.

  121. VanOil says:

    Ducey:
    Here is an interesting chart showing the chances of each teams’ picks playing 200 NHL games.

    The Oilers are #1!
    https://twitter.com/omgitsdomi/status/608654823580286976/photo/1

    So the #16 overall pick has a 55% chance of playing 200 games. That is nice but if it came down to it I would bet on Yak playing another 200 games.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Dammit. I made the mistake of looking up Brent Seabrook on the internet and now on LTs site i get ads for Seabrook the new beach community.

  123. Showerhead says:

    Best case: Edmonton offer sheets Hamilton, compensation is not dear, Hamilton becomes the player we expect/hope he is, cap hit is fair value.

    Worst case: Edmonton offer sheets Hamilton, draft picks end up Seguin-esque, Hamilton becomes a top 4 but not elite defender, cap space is wasted.

    Most likely: Edmonton (or some team) offer sheets Hamilton, Boston matches, Boston is forced to deal off less vital roster pieces.

    Honestly, I think Chara at his price, performance, and 3 year contract length (McDavid’s ELC) is absolutely ideal. You get a Chara who is still a very good player at a reasonable price and if he declines to average or mediocre, you get out of the deal in time to pay McDavid.

    Risk is way less, it comes with a contingency/escape plan, and the player in question is still a very good one.

    For the record, I think Hamilton is probably the real deal but think Boston matches almost anything. If they don’t, I still worry (quite a bit) about the cap crunch and (a little bit) about the acquisition cost.

  124. Rondo says:

    VanOil,

    The only Larsson Oilers have a chance at is Jacob Larsson at #33

  125. VanOil says:

    OF17:
    VanOil,

    5 x $6 million would be a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which is a pretty steep price to pay. You’re basically saying, “This player is worth tanking almost an entire draft for.”

    Here’s the compensation levels: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015-free-agents.html

    Given Larsson is a 4th overall pick about enter his prime and is a rigjty.

    Moving from a mid 1st round pick up to a #4 spot to take the top rated Dman would probably take a mid 2nd + 3 picks to do.

    So yes I would make that deal.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    Rational Zealot,

    Yes but there is no young top pairing defensemen available in the UFA market

  127. RexLibris says:

    So if we’re going around and around on an offer sheet, what sort of trade deal might the Bruins look at?

    Thanks to WG for the WoI link to the cap page.

    From that site the Bruins are committed to $64 million next season with the highest possible ceiling for next year being $71 million if the players exercise their CBA option.

    That gives them just a hair under $7 million to sign 3 defensemen, 3 forwards and re-sign Connolly and Hamilton, not to mention 6 minor league UFAs and 4 minor league RFAs.

    They need cap relief immediately and would have to have some players that keep their window open for a deal to work.

    So how about the following:

    To Boston –

    Nail Yakupov, Martin Marincin, the 2015 16th overall pick and 33rd overall pick and future considerations (namely, allowing the Bruins to select 2016 or 2017 as the year for their compensatory 2nd round pick)

    To Edmonton –

    Dougie Hamilton, Marc Savard, the 2015 14th overall pick and the negotiation rights to Carl Soderberg

    Keep in mind, if another team submits an offer sheet for Hamilton the Bruins will be unable to trade him for a calendar year, therefore, if they want to have some say in the process, better to make the deal than leave yourself vulnerable.

  128. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: That’s what I am getting at. Not trying to slam Jones. They are doing things right with him in NSH. I just think people get enamoured with certain “names” and don’t dive into the numbers to see what’s really going on. What Hamilton has done up to this point is and at that age is not getting enough credit here imo.

    Fame.

    Important to fans.

    Important to GMs.

    One of the best RHd (top 15 RHD in the NHL imo) is Ryan Ellis.

    Cheap contract and 5″10 so no one thinks twice about him.

  129. malinpaul says:

    way too rich.

    This team will have cap challenges with all the high end talent.

    We need to patiently snatch up a Stralman like Tampa did.

    D by committee and hope that better coaching can improve Jultz. Hope that Nurse and Klefbom improve to the level suggested by their WJC play. then add three more high quality D. and a great goalie.

    I would trade some combination of a pick, core forward, and prospect to get a Seth Jones type future #1D. Jones might be too expensive – and might be too early to trade for (under 200 gm)… but something like that

  130. Hammers says:

    After waiting ten years why the rush on offer sheets or the unknown answer to our problems. Sure everyone wants the big acquisition but positioning maybe the best answer for this year . Next year we have over $15 mill coming off the books and both Nurse and Leon are on the team if not this year , next for sure . That’s less than Gordon’s salary . We have $10 mill this year and that gets us a goalie and should get a free agent D ,hopefully a # 3-4 . These guys are here to make smart moves. Yak also proves if he goes or stays . The # 16 pick may also be close to making the team along with Yak2 , Chase , Simpson . Have a little more patience and do it right

  131. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Fame.

    Important to fans.

    Important to GMs.

    One of the best RHd (top 15 RHD in the NHL imo) is Ryan Ellis.

    Cheap contract and 5″10 so no one thinks twice about him.

    Ellis is pretty famous.

    He’s also not seeing the toughs so there’s no way I can see him being top 15 RHD right now (nor has he repeated or established his present level of ability, although I think he’s a good bet to).

  132. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy: Rumsfeld?

    Get a grip.

    You’re free to think what you want as am I.

    I didn’t direct my first comment at you and you chose to engage.

    If you make decisions based on fear, that’s entirely up to you.

    Prudence isn’t fear. Jumping off a bridge into water of unknown depth isn’t bravery.

  133. Truth says:

    Rational Zealot: Good lord that is an awful trade for the Oilers.No reasonable person could think that is a good idea.Lucic has minimal value, the #33 pick maybe.

    That means Eberle, the #16 pick and Marincin for Hamilton.That’s simply dreadful.

    I didn’t realize Lucic was a UFA after this next season. However, I would say if this was a Bruins blog the reaction would be very similar except it would be the Boston fans saying it’s a terrible trade.

    IMO, if Lucic could be had for a 2nd round pick the deal would already be done. If Eberle for Hamilton straight across would be accepted by Boston I also believe that deal would already be done. Including a suspect (although he is loved around here) Marincin, and two picks that are not guaranteed a single game in the NHL would be worth it to me to get a heavy playing winger with skill and a probable stud defenceman.

    In any case, fantasy trades are just that.

  134. Pouzar says:

    I don’t want to get too attached to the idea of a Hamilton offer sheet and subsequent acquisition.
    He’s a great player and I would love to have him and I hope they try. But I ain’t getting my hopes up that’s for sure. Heckuva player though. Maybe Chara shakes loose as a consolation.

  135. JJ says:

    Hammers says:
    June 10, 2015 at 1:18 pm

    After waiting ten years why the rush on offer sheets or the unknown answer to our problems. Sure everyone wants the big acquisition but positioning maybe the best answer for this year . Next year we have over $15 mill coming off the books and both Nurse and Leon are on the team if not this year , next for sure . That’s less than Gordon’s salary . We have $10 mill this year and that gets us a goalie and should get a free agent D ,hopefully a # 3-4 . These guys are here to make smart moves. Yak also proves if he goes or stays . The # 16 pick may also be close to making the team along with Yak2 , Chase , Simpson . Have a little more patience and do it right
    —————————————————————————-

    Nice post. Patience, and SMART, COST EFFECTIVE moves and development will get us there.

  136. Visually better says:

    I totally understand everyone is finally excited about this team during the summer months, trust me im on the same boat. But what we have to realize is that:

    1. The free agent market is extremely barren.

    2. There’s a new coach and Gm and they will most likely be in the business of assessment not procurement.

    3. With many picks in this draft (in a very deep draft) it would be unwise to trade them for short term fixation.

    4. We multiple bad contracts that are in fact ending after this 15/16 season.

    5. The new arena is up next year

    There is no need to mortgage our future on a summer where there isn’t much out there in terms of quality. I realize we are all (myself included) very impatient and our ‘kids’ are getting older every year, but there are too many factors against going out this summer and trying to make short term fixes. It may not be the popular choice, or most exciting choice but its the right thing to do. Chia wants to see what we have and that is what we need to do. We have multiple players who need to prove they have what it takes, and Chia will be letting them know that this is the time they are simply going to make it or break it.

    If i were in charge this is how i would approach our situation.

    A: Trade for players that are coming into their last year(s) of their contracts if possible. This way we will not have to necessarily pay a premium for them, and we will have a lot of money free’d up coming into next off-season that we would be able to pay these players based on how they preform this season. It Is somewhat risky, but with the new arena, new managment, money to spend, and a good core of players, we have a-lot to offer these types of players.

    (Byfuglien!!!!, Yandle, Gunnarson, and maybe a couple forwards like Grabner, Brouwer,)

    B: Keep our roster to begin the season, draft all/most of our picks this draft and then wait to see what shakes up at the deadline and offer our rentals: (Boyd Gordon, Purcell, Ference etc…) maximize the value of those players coming on to the end of their contracts, and then go into the off-season with more picks and more money to spend at next years July 1st festivites. (which as of right now, looks to be better then this years.)

    As OIler fans, we should realize more than anyone that short term fixes are not the answer, its that simple. We have so many pieces that are coming into place, we just have to be patient on some other issues. If we can get an Eddie Lack, Dustin Byfuglien, and Michael Grabner this off-season Via Trade, I’m all for it. Those 3 moves create much more competition throughout the roster, and we can decide who we want to pay after this season.

  137. Younger Oil says:

    The one big issue I have with Hamilton is we’re not sure if he will be better than Nurse and/or Klefbom when their ELC’s expire. If they’re even close, they could be looking at Hamilton making $7.2M and then think that they’re worth at least $6M, which would make negotiating with them along with Yakupov (if he takes off), Draisaitl, and McDavid a big task.

    Also, assuming Boston will likely match anything that doesn’t get them two firsts, a second, and a third, and factoring in the 2nd and 3rd we are losing to hire the coach and GM, that’s basically going 2 of the next 3 years with no picks in the first three rounds. That’s suicide for a team who will need value ELCs to pad their roster going forward.

    Hamilton alone also doesn’t make them a playoff team, and his contract would likely cause cap issues within 3 years, when we were already thinking it was going to get difficult to manage WITHOUT Hamilton.

    Honestly, as dumb as this sounds, I’d sooner trade down multiple times with the McDavid pick to fill out the holes in our roster, and that is something that I obviously really don’t want to do.

  138. maudite says:

    If we are going to burn a hole in our prospect and pick department for that dman, then i would prefer we go chasing oel.

    Overpay if need be but surely we can put enough pieces in play to make the coyotes think it over

    Marincin, 16th overall, Davidson, 33rd overall and something like next years 2nd round pick.

    Gives them two cheap nhl ready d and a solid chunk of higher end prospects.

    If it requires more than that shuffle it around and include next years first or:

    Shultz, marincin, yak and 16th.

    Oel or maybe someone like jones out of Nashville would be my preferred targets.

  139. leadfarmer says:

    maudite,

    Try Draisatl, and Nurse. That might not get your number blocked. Probably need to put in the 16th OV too

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Rational Zealot,

    Just because you don’t like Lucic does not make it so. He is still a very highly sought after commodity. That is a crazy deal for the Oilers. You could flip Lucic for a first round pick plus a second rounder without problems. Marincin doesn’t have much trade value right now.

  141. Магия 10 says:

    OF17:
    VanOil,

    5 x $6 million would be a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which is a pretty steep price to pay. You’re basically saying, “This player is worth tanking almost an entire draft for.”

    Here’s the compensation levels: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015-free-agents.html

    with the 5 year rule it the comps look like this:

    Four firsts around 7 x 6.01 OR 6 x 7.21 OR 5 x 8.41

    Two firsts, a second and a third starts around 7 x 4.81 OR 6 x 5.77 OR 5 x 6.73

  142. gd says:

    I’m not sure offer sheeting Hamilton is a good idea, but I’ve got to think no one is better informed on what Hamilton will be worth and what the B’s breaking point would be then Chia. One of the many reasons I am very happy with the management changes.

    I can’t see OEL being available, no matter how much of a mess Arizona is in. I have Hamilton, Jones and Vlasic as homerun D pickups. Spurgeon, Ellis, De Haan, Pouliot Braun, and Dillon are solid “doubles” worth around the 16th.

    The wildcards are; Larsson, who would be cheaper than Hamilton and maybe Shero will undervalue him; Maata and Burns, who I have no idea how to value them, but they seem like they could be attainable for a variety of reasons.

  143. maudite says:

    I could live with drai being in a package (given team makeup) but surely there is a way to overload with other pieces not names nurse.

    Oel
    Nurse
    Klef

    That should be the kind of strength you could build around.

    Drai, yak and 16th? That seems pretty solid no?

    leadfarmer:
    maudite,

    Try Draisatl, and Nurse.That might not get your number blocked.Probably need to put in the 16th OV too

  144. Pouzar says:

    See what I mean?

    *sigh*

  145. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Ellis is pretty famous.

    He’s also not seeing the toughs so there’s no way I can see him being top 15 RHD right now (nor has he repeated or established his present level of ability, although I think he’s a good bet to).

    Here’s a copy and paste on something I wrote Ellis:

    He gets better results than Weber with worse zone starts in some situations.

    You cannot remove the partner effect so Josi and Ekholm are certainly a part both equations.

    I don’t think the QC difference is nearly enough to make up for some of the different results:

    Ellis has more favorable numbers with the same C’s often with worse zone starts than Weber.

    I wrote this the other day at the comments section at Lowetide.ca :

    Here’s NSH Vollman chart for their D: http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=NSH&f4=D&f7=20-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Ellis gets a massive advantage in zone starts, but the QC is similar to Weber’s.

    As it turns out, most of ozone disparity due to the dzone starts taken with Gaustad’s line.

    Weber TOI w/ Gaustad 348 min, 12.7%OZS
    Ellis takes his turn at those starts, but not as many minutes: 99:52 min, 8.2% OZS
    So Ellis doesn’t play as much with Gaustad, but gets the brutal starts with him too (even worse)

    One way to tease out some of the difference of the difference in impact between Weber and Ellis is to look at the with each of the 4 main NAS C’s in terms of CF% WOWY and OZS%.

    Ribero:
    With Weber 411 min – 56.5% CF – 65.5% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 56.8%
    With Ellis 288 min – 60.5%CF – 70.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 55.6%

    Gaustad:
    With Weber 348 min – 40.2%CF – 12.7%OZS – CF% w/o Weber 44.6%
    With Ellis 99min – 48.0%CF – 8.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 41.1%

    Fisher
    With Weber 310min – 50.3% CF – 50.4% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 49.7%
    With Ellis 136min – 52.2% CF – 43.9% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 51.8%

    Jarnkrok
    With Weber 250 min – 48.3% CF – 55.6% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 57.5%
    With Ellis 178 min – 54.2% CF – 53.9% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 54.3%

    All 4 of NSH’s C’s do better with Ellis than with Weber.

    That includes Gaustad and his awful starts. He’s actually much better with Ellis with the same awful ZS, its just that Weber gets more of them.
    Fisher does better with Ellis even though they start in the OZ 6% more with Weber than Ellis.

    I don’t know if we can contribute all the results on just Weber or Ellis, their partners (Josi and Ekholm respectively) are on the ice too.

    What this does show me is that Ellis/Ekholm get better possession results in the same or tougher spots than Weber/Josi with the same team mates.

    In some spots significantly better.

  146. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: Prudence isn’t fear.Jumping off a bridge into water of unknown depth isn’t bravery.

    You really like to go hard with they hyperbole eh?

    Call me Rumsfeld for not fearing something that has happened, or if it did (its not clear) it was once since offer sheets have been allowed.

    Its not jumping off a bridge either.

    Calculated risk.

    Nothing more or less.

  147. spoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    WG

    With all due respect there is no dataset out there giving us an accurate read on Qualcomp. This has been known for some time.

    There is no way Josi and Weber are getting FOUR more 5v5 mins per game and not seeing significantly better comp than Ellis (and Ekholm).

    So that’s not only a ZS push but a Qualcomp push too.

    Good on the kid, I like him but there’s no way he’s a Top 15 RHD in the league… his own coach doesn’t even believe it.

  148. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Since Josi and Weber played 6.5 minutes per game more than Ellis and when Weber went down Jones got the extra minutes its clear where the Predators franchise put Ellis in their depth chart. Might be a good target for a trade, cause I think they see him as their 4th best defensemen next year.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Ellis quality of competition is much closer to Jones than Weber who is sheltered and this is the first season that Ellis has not been flat out sheltered

  150. OF17 says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    WG

    With all due respect there is no dataset out there giving us an accurate read on Qualcomp. This has been known for some time.

    There is no way Josi and Weber are getting FOUR more 5v5 mins per game and not seeing significantly better comp than Ellis (and Ekholm).

    So that’s not only a ZS push but a Qualcomp push too.

    Good on the kid, I like him but there’s no way he’s a Top 15 RHD in the league… his own coach doesn’t even believe it.

    Really? There’s no way? How about each guy spends 7 minutes against the 1st line and 7 minutes against the 2nd line, but one guy gets 4 minutes against the 4th line that the other doesn’t. There’s 4 extra minutes of TOI that actually *decrease* Qualcomp, not increase it.

    Also, your point about Ellis’s coach makes no sense. If you have a top-5 RHD like Weber, you’re damn well going to play him significantly more than your 2RHD even if your 2RHD is 12th-15th best in the league.

    So far, you’ve got nothing to dispute Woodguy’s point.

  151. rickithebear says:

    Hall-Lander-Draisatl 10.4m 2yr
    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle 16M 4yr
    Slepyshev-Mcdavid-Yakimov 5.775M 2yr
    32.15M total for 2 years

    Toews; Kane; Sharp; Hossa 32.14M for 2 years

    Lucic-Krejci- Pastarnak 15.05M
    Erickson-Bergeron-Marchand 15.575
    30.578M total for 1 year

    Kunitz-crosby-Perron 16.35 m
    Dupuis-Malkin-Hornquist17.5M
    33.8M for 1yr

    Thorton; Pavelski-XXX 12.75M
    Marleau-Couture-Wingels 15.142M
    27.89M for 1 YR

    JVR-Bozak-Kessel 16.45M
    XXX-Lupul-Komarov 8.2m
    24.65M for 3 yr

    Sedin-Sedin-Vrbata 19M 1yr
    Higgins-Bonino-Burrows 8.9M 2yr
    Hansen-Horvat-Dorsett 6.89M 2yr
    34.78M

  152. spoiler says:

    OF17,

    Your second paragraph is very debateable.

    It doesn’t matter. The burden of proof is on Woodguy. He’s smart, he knows this—that’s why he put some data up—so I’m not saying this for his benefit.

    You haven’t shown that the hypothetical situation in your first paragraph is the case.

    Nor would that, by itself, make the claim that he’s 15th best in the league, right now, since we have a lot of other Dmen to eliminate. From what I can observe statistically, he’s not. That’s my interpretation of the data. His CA/60 is so extraordinarily low compared to the team*, with the significant drop-off in minutes that rather than I ascribe true greatness, I tend to think he’s getting a nice push… but doing very well with it.

    What the numbers show me is that he can handle what he’s given—dominant even—and should be able take a step up. This is the kind of guy many here have talked about—finding the guy on the cusp that you can get for cheaper than the guy who is already known as fer-sure kickass.

    I like Ellis. I’d trade for him. Love his contract… he might certainly be top 15 deals in the league at RHD. He was full value for the minutes he was given.

    Might take a lot to motivate Nash to trade him though.

    Edit: *what I mean here is his pairing compared to the others, in particular to Josi and Weber.

  153. Rational Zealot says:

    There is no meaningful difference in quality of competition for defensemen, especially guys who play “top four” minutes. Everybody plays against everybody.

    Zone starts, on the other hand, has a strong, linear, relationship with shots and goals.

    Quality of teammates also matters, but within a team this is also mostly (but not always) a wash.

    But, quality of competition only matters for guys who play the least. The more you play the less quality of competition matters. This is axiomatic.

    So if your argument is that player A plays the tough minutes, your argument is almost certainly wrong. Any player that gets into the discussion is already playing the tough minutes.

  154. Wolfpack says:

    Heard an idea on a sports show last night that I thought was interesting. I am sure it has been talked about here but maybe I missed it. How about a package built around Leon Draisaitl for Adam Larsson?

    I realize it would be strange for the Oilers to acquire a d-man on the way up – after another team has put up with most of the difficult “informative” years that defensemen go through. It also seems strange that the Oilers would trade a centre after being woefully deficient in that area for so long. But would this not be a deal where both teams would address areas of need? NJ’s centre depth looks really sketchy in an old fossilized way. And Draisaitl’s stock is probably pretty high right now after winning the Memorial Cup MVP. I guess the question is – could Larsson soon be doing what Hedman is currently doing?

    What do you guys think?

  155. Woodguy says:

    ironsight:
    Woodguy,

    WG – Chara’s not 3 more years at $6.9, its 2 more years at $6.9 then year 3 is just $4m.

    Honestly, if you could work a deal around Ference for Chara without giving up a ton, the marginal increase cap hit is small enough to eliminate most of the risk of acquiring the aging giant.

    Cap hit is 6.9 all 3 years.

    That’s the number that matters.

  156. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    WG

    With all due respect there is no dataset out there giving us an accurate read on Qualcomp. This has been known for some time.

    There is no way Josi and Weber are getting FOUR more 5v5 mins per game and not seeing significantly better comp than Ellis (and Ekholm).

    So that’s not only a ZS push but a Qualcomp push too.

    Good on the kid, I like him but there’s no way he’s a Top 15 RHD in the league… his own coach doesn’t even believe it.

    There’s no way you can wave away those results by saying “they player tougher comp”

    It’s the NHL and you can’t shelter 2 D pairs.

    It’s tough enough to shelter one.

    His results stand well on their own.

  157. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Ellis quality of competition is much closer to Jones than Weber who is sheltered and this is the first season that Ellis has not been flat out sheltered

    Care to share any proof of your assertion?

  158. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    WG

    With all due respect there is no dataset out there giving us an accurate read on Qualcomp. This has been known for some time.

    There is no way Josi and Weber are getting FOUR more 5v5 mins per game and not seeing significantly better comp than Ellis (and Ekholm).

    So that’s not only a ZS push but a Qualcomp push too.

    Good on the kid, I like him but there’s no way he’s a Top 15 RHD in the league… his own coach doesn’t even believe it.

    Ellis’ ZS are actually worse with the 2 C’s that see the toughest comp on NAS.

  159. Rational Zealot says:

    spoiler,

    You are simply wrong about this. First, the burden of proof is on you. Every measurement of quality of competition that exists shows little meaningful difference. You can’t just say that therefore the empirical measurements are wrong.

    Moreover, once you move away from empirical measurements you are on even worse ground for there is no theoretical reason to suggest that quality of competition matters for defensemen that play a lot minutes. Indeed, reason suggests quite the opposite. The more you play the more you play against everybody; the more you play against everybody, the less quality of competition matters.

    It also isn’t the case that the top pair plays against the best while the second pair plays against the second best, etc. First, there is no real way to ensure this happens. Moreover, even if it were possible it presumes there are meaningful differences between the first and second lines on most teams. But there is no meaningful difference unless you think playing against Stamkos and Kane, who are both right now second line players, is somehow not playing tough minutes.

  160. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Can a team retain salary on only one year so long as its the current year?
    If so I would propose a trade like this.

    Chara and our 2nd rounder from Chaireli with 2 million retained salary all 3 years for

    Ference and 2 million retained next year only

    I threaten to offer sheet Hamilton and give them this way out that gives them $3.4 million of cap room this year and $1.4 and $4.9 million in the final years. Chara could be dumped to a floor team in the last year costing a team only 2mil actual with a $4.9 million hit or he’s still effective and you keep him.

  161. vishcosity says:

    x = time
    y = value (performance/$)

    Player 1:
    __
    | __/ |

    Player 2:
    __
    / |__/

    An ELC or offer sheet hopes for player 1.
    A UFA signing expects player 2.

    Once the player reaches his (historically determined) statistical peak performance, that player should then theoretically switch categories (x’ = 0) .

    Sounds like the Kings estimate Mike Richards in the second category and past the middle inflection point.

    Ideally statistical probability would accurately predict the player’s projected peak (lb/”, total TOI…) but as yet I know of no such model.

    Clearly, trading for player 2 past the median point is bad business. Getting prospects for eating the cap on player 2’s graph can be very good business, if the volume of the bad value component leaves the books right at the end of the contract with player 1.

    /math – sleep + spitball.

    Edit: stupid thing. That’s supposed to be a sine wave and a cosine wave. whatever. html sucks.

  162. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot: Every measurement of quality of competition that exists shows little meaningful difference. You can’t just say that therefore the empirical measurements are wrong.

    You are taking a qualitative statement and generating an unsupported interpretation.

    Every measurement of quality of competition shows a narrowed range, this is true.

    You are the one declaring that the range is not a meaningful difference.

    “Narrow range” is not the same as “not meaningful”. Not at all.

    If I look at defensemen ranked within teams by QoC, there is clear reason to believe that the measurement is very meaningful when assessed in the context of perceived usage and effectiveness.

    If you want a useless defensive stat, use Ricki’s EVGA.

    Or even CF%, which for defensemen can be useful but more often is buried in the noise of CF.

    QoC’s narrow range carries a ton more information than either.

  163. Bank Shot says:

    Rational Zealot:
    There is no meaningful difference in quality of competition for defensemen, especially guys who play “top four” minutes.Everybody plays against everybody.

    Zone starts, on the other hand, has a strong, linear, relationship with shots and goals.

    Quality of teammates also matters, but within a team this is also mostly (but not always) a wash.

    But, quality of competition only matters for guys who play the least.The more you play the less quality of competition matters.This is axiomatic.

    So if your argument is that player A plays the tough minutes, your argument is almost certainly wrong.Any player that gets into the discussion is already playing the tough minutes.

    Are you sure?

    I swear I’ve seen shiftlogs of games where a shutdown pair gets hard matched to an opposing forward and is on the ice for 80% plus of his icetime.

    I think its easier to do then with forward head to head matchups.

  164. spoiler says:

    Rational Zealot,

    The debate is over the claim “Ryan Ellis a top 15 defenseman in the league.”

    The person making that claim has the burden of proof.

    At this point in time it is still not proven in my eyes.

    Is it in yours?

  165. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    It does say more than those measures, but IMO that says something more about those other measures, lol.

    Another thing, its incredibly narrow range exists for both forwards and defensemen.

    So either essentially everyone is playing against the same comp all the time, or our measure is flawed. I suspect the latter.

  166. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Ellis’ ZS are actually worse with the 2 C’s that see the toughest comp on NAS.

    His ZS’s as a whole show he gets the biggest push on the team. With Gaustad, the two are scarcely different and the sample size for Ellis less than a third that of Weber’s and is small enough to run into serious noise issues. Less than the equivalent of 10 games of data with both Gaustad and Fisher.

    Nor did you show who these forwards were run up against when playing in these smaller samples with Ellis. As you have said a few times yourself, coaches are more likely to match D than F.

    With the significant difference in D ice time, it looks like matching is going on. I can’t know this, of course, but it looks like a reasonable bet.

  167. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Looking at Mr. Vollman’s numbers on his webpage. Ellis’ numbers last year is were Jones is this year.

  168. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy: Call me Rumsfeld

    There are not many people on this earth, who I think of so poorly as to call Rumsfeld, and one of them is Rumsfeld!

  169. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    I dug into the meaning of QoC (by which I mean I looked at reams of data and tried to deconstruct how it changed with respect to different game states to get a ‘feel’ for its validity) quite a while back and I concluded this:

    – The narrow range is actually reflective of the game, because QoC effectively incorporates a variety of game states

    – As Bank Shot noted, many coaches tactically hard match their D vs the other teams F. This is the “signal”.

    – What makes it noisy and narrows the spread is that some coaches don’t hard match very much, some do but with some pairings only, and some only hard match against particularly dangerous players on specific teams.

    – Additionally, it’s harder to play the match game on the road, so as you’d expect QoC spreads are slightly narrower on the road. You’d think the easy solution would be to look at home splits only, but the problem there is you’ve cut your sample size down and traded noise for noise.

    – D are typically hard matched against F, and the opportunity to change is polar opposite between the two. That is to say, if my D pairing is buried own zone, the other team can change the F, whereas I can typically change D when the other team is in their zone, precluding their changing the F

    So what you ultimately get with QoC is a high signal dataset (hard matches) co-existing with lots of random noise.

    The answer, as it is with all such signal-noise situations is therefore NOT, “there is no signal”.

    The answer is “sample size”.

    Without sample size, QoC is fairly meaningless. But once you have sample size, the difference in QoC “floats” above the noise, and those narrow but persistent differences carry a ton of information.

  170. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy: You really like to go hard with they hyperbole eh?

    It’s an analogy.

    Call me Rumsfeld for not fearing something that has happened, or if it did (its not clear) it was once since offer sheets have been allowed.

    I’m calling you Rumsfeld because you’re operating on a best-case scenario, blithely dismissing any criticisms of your proposed course of action with hand-waving (“a counter-offersheet has never happened”) which is factually incorrect, a logical fallacy, and definitely doesn’t take into consideration what a ripe tree for picking the Oilers will be in the coming years.

    Its not jumping off a bridge either.

    Calculated risk.

    Nothing more or less.

    I didn’t say it was. I made the analogy of jumping off a bridge into waters of unknown depths. I’m not talking a suicidal jump like from the Golden Gate bridge, I’m talking about one of those small-town bridges kids go diving off of.

    Except in this case we haven’t even waded into the water see how deep it is.

    You’re correct in stating that’s it’s a calculated risk. My point is that you’re not factoring all the downsides into the equation.

    For starters, you completely hand-wave any possibility of a revenge offer sheet on really baseless grounds.

    Second, you’re forgetting the damage that Kevin Lowe did to his own reputation with his offer sheets.

    Third, Hamilton is tracking well but there are warning signs w.r.t. his positioning and giveaways. He’s as likely to become Phaneuf as he is to be the next Hedman. He’s playing on a really strong, veteran team with fantastic goaltending and good defensive partners, and hasn’t been lights-out.

    Fourth, you’re not thinking of the implications of a ~7.3 million dollar second contract. How will Hall, Nuge, and Ebs feel? Don’t hand-wave that question away, either. Elite players have egos. There’s a reason why Hall and Ebs and Nuge have 6 million dollar contracts, together. What precedent does this set for Nurse and Draisaitl? What will McDavid want if a 9th overall defenceman is getting 7.3 million after playing 20 minutes per game and getting a -3 on the second pairing (I’d provide fancy stats, but I’m on a crappy tablet.)

    On more implications of a 7.3 million dollar contract, he suddenly becomes our number 1 defenceman, our highest paid player. Screw what you and I think, when the reality of that cap hit and salary starts weighing on the public and the management, expectations are going to be high and I’m pretty confident a 22 year old kid isn’t going to live up to them on a team as bad as the Oilers.

    So yeah, it’s a calculated risk, and your calculations are way off. Smart teams don’t throw 11% of the cap and a boatload of good picks on a young defenceman who hasn’t shown he can carry water on a good team.

  171. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: His ZS’s as a whole show he gets the biggest push on the team.With Gaustad, the two are scarcely different and the sample size for Ellis less than a third that of Weber’s and is small enough to run into serious noise issues.Less than the equivalent of 10 games of data with both Gaustad and Fisher.

    Nor did you show who these forwards were run up against when playing in these smaller samples with Ellis.As you have said a few times yourself, coaches are more likely to match D than F.

    With the significant difference in D ice time, it looks like matching is going on. I can’t know this, of course, but it looks like a reasonable bet.

    You must have mis-read the numbers to describe their numbers as “scarcely different” with Gaustad.

    Weber:

    12.7% OZS, 40% CF

    Ellis
    8.2% OZS, 48%CF

    4% tougher zone start

    8% better results.

    In a league where 52% is excellent and 45% is replacement sayiing that their difference with Gaustad is “scarcely different” is either a mis-read or purposefully ignoring the data.

  172. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I,

    Read closely.

    I’m not operating on the “best case scenario”

    I’m operating on “‘what has actually happened since they introduced offer sheets”

    I am operating on actual data.

    Actual things that happened.

    Or in this case, what actually hasn’t happened.

    The average response to an oversheet is nothing.

    I’m working off the average.

    Stick your Rumsfeld up your ass and pay attention.

    Unreal.

  173. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy:
    V.XIV.VI.I,

    Read closely.

    I’m not operating on the “best case scenario”

    I’m operating on “‘what has actually happened since they introduced offer sheets”

    I am operating on actual data.

    Actual things that happened.

    Or in this case, what actually hasn’t happened.

    The average response to an oversheet is nothing.

    I’m working off the average.

    Stick your Rumsfeld up your ass and pay attention.

    Unreal.

    So you have absolutely no response to all my points. Any of them, in fact.

    Except “but no one has ever done a revenge sheet”, which isn’t strictly true as we’ve already established.

    Yeah, one of us isn’t paying attention but I’m confident that the charge doesn’t apply to me.

    This reminds me too much of arguments with my ex-wife. I’ve made my case, I’m going for some ice cream.

    Edit: No, wait, I’m not done.

    You were this stubborn and mule-like about scoring chances vs Corsi, too. How’d that work out? The Corsi coach had one and a half seasons of disaster in Edmonton. Eat it.

    Now I’m done.

  174. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: So you have absolutely no response to all my points.Any of them, in fact.

    Except “but no one has ever done a revenge sheet”, which isn’t strictly true as we’ve already established.

    Yeah, one of us isn’t paying attention but I’m confident that the charge doesn’t apply to me.

    This reminds me too much of arguments with my ex-wife.I’ve made my case, I’m going for some ice cream.

    Edit: No, wait, I’m not done.

    You were this stubborn and mule-like about scoring chances vs Corsi, too.How’d that work out? The Corsi coach had one and a half seasons of disaster in Edmonton. Eat it.

    Now I’m done.

    Please list how many revenge sheets have been done since RFA offer sheets became available.

    Please then express it in REVENGE SHEETS/YEAR

    The answer is negligible.

    So close to zero, that’s its zero.

    You’re free to run your life scared of very improbable things happening.

  175. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: So you have absolutely no response to all my points.Any of them, in fact.

    Except “but no one has ever done a revenge sheet”, which isn’t strictly true as we’ve already established.

    Yeah, one of us isn’t paying attention but I’m confident that the charge doesn’t apply to me.

    This reminds me too much of arguments with my ex-wife.I’ve made my case, I’m going for some ice cream.

    Edit: No, wait, I’m not done.

    You were this stubborn and mule-like about scoring chances vs Corsi, too.How’d that work out? The Corsi coach had one and a half seasons of disaster in Edmonton. Eat it.

    Now I’m done.

    Lighting once struck a kid in a ball diamond where I played not 2 hours before.

    True story.

    I still went out and played ball the next day and the days following.

    You’re free to stay at home and fear the lightning.

  176. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I,

    You were this stubborn and mule-like about scoring chances vs Corsi, too. How’d that work out?

    Scoring chances and corsi are very highly correlated.

    Nothing has changed.

    I don’t understand your reference.

    I bet you’re the type of person to say a coin is “due” to turn heads if its turned tails 3 times in a row.

  177. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy:
    V.XIV.VI.I,

    You were this stubborn and mule-like about scoring chances vs Corsi, too. How’d that work out?

    Scoring chances and corsi are very highly correlated.

    Nothing has changed.

    I don’t understand your reference.

    I bet you’re the type of person to say a coin is “due” to turn heads if its turned tails 3 times in a row.

    To the latter: nonsense.

    To the former: you could never quite wrap your head around the fact that Corsi has two fundamental (and related) problems:

    1. Shot quality seriously matters. You acknowledge this but always argue when it comes to how pervasive the effect is.
    2. Once people are working with Corsi in mind, especially a coach like Eakins who pushed it, the former is compromised and the effectiveness of Corsi as a whole is significantly diminished. From the moment the first player to realize that Corsi had or would have some value to someone running a team, it was a compromised stat.

    Saying Corsi is highly correlated with scoring chances is like saying lighters are highly correlated with lung cancer. Close, oh so close, but missing that key ingredient.

    Finally, for someone who supposedly cares so much about high event counts and statistics in general, you sure put a lot of faith into a low event count like offer sheets and seem awfully inclined to believe that past performance is a guarantor of future success. Not to mention the very unique circumstances surrounding each offer sheet.

    By your thinking, Crawford stopped nine shots in the first period, so he’s going to never get scored on. Just like nobody (certainly not paragon of forgiveness Cam Neely) will ever through a revenge offer sheet at an Oilers RFA.

  178. Rondo says:

    Oilers should look at Damon Severson, he would be a good fit for the Oilers and NJ is looking for forwards. Not sure NJ would trade him .

  179. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I,

    2. Once people are working with Corsi in mind, especially a coach like Eakins who pushed it, the former is compromised and the effectiveness of Corsi as a whole is significantly diminished. From the moment the first player to realize that Corsi had or would have some value to someone running a team, it was a compromised stat.

    I’m dying to see your evidence for his assertion.

  180. LP says:

    dustrock:
    With Niemi, this sounds obvious I know, but with McLellan on, he’s either a sure lock to come or they won’t even talk to him, I don’t think there’s any inbetween. lol

    Given how things went in the collapse against the Kings, not sure McLellan would want Niemi, and maybe likewise.

    leadfarmer:
    Dammit.I made the mistake of looking up Brent Seabrook on the internet and now on LTs site i get ads for Seabrook the new beach community.

    Try and add the following add-on to your favourite browser: ADBLOCK.

    There are various different other apps that all do the same,that is, block ads while browsing.

    Refreshing.

  181. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy:
    V.XIV.VI.I,

    2. Once people are working with Corsi in mind, especially a coach like Eakins who pushed it, the former is compromised and the effectiveness of Corsi as a whole is significantly diminished. From the moment the first player to realize that Corsi had or would have some value to someone running a team, it was a compromised stat.

    I’m dying to see your evidence for his assertion.

    Evidence? How about the improved Corsi and worsened record under Eakins. Most of you here were cheerleading the improved shot totals but seemingly unwilling to grasp that the shot quality went to shit and chances against improved.

    If you want a peer-reviewed study, good luck. As for affecting player behavior, no, you’re not going to get evidence of this because evidence hasn’t been compiled, but it’s simple human nature. If players start getting rewarded for Corsi then you’re going to see more Corsi events even at the cost of actual results. Given how averse you seem to be to reasoning things through (ie, the consequences of giving a young second-pairing defenceman the highest-paying contract on the team), I genuinely worry the rest of this discussion will be as futile as everything I’ve said to you before.

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