SCREAMING TARGETS: ZDENO CHARA

Peter Chiarelli poked a hole in the Eastern Conference 36 days after taking over as Bruins’ GM. By plucking Zdeno Chara in free agency, he effectively changed the decade for two teams and impacted all of the clubs pushing for Stanley. Now, almost one decade later, he’s looking for an impact blue to puncture the other conference and set free Edmonton’s department of youth to plunder California and the rest of the west.

If the Oilers are looking to Boston for a defenseman, it’s going to be way easier to pluck one of Zdeno Chara or Dennis Seidenberg from Peter Chiarelli’s old team than find a way to acquire Dougie Hamilton. Question: Is Chara worth it?

BRUINS VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (d) bruins vollman

Chara is the class of the group, no doubt. He’s also older now, slowing and the injuries are piling up. Seidenberg? Well, he had the tough zone starts that’s for sure and it was second-pairing opposition. However, he’s also an older gent, slowing and the injuries are really piling up.

OILERS VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (d)

vollman oilers 1415

Interesting to see the similar roles for Marincin and Hamilton here, of course with differing levels of success. Ference was (basically) playing the Seidenberg role for Edmonton last season, I don’t believe either of them should be getting those tough ZS’s at their respective ages. Chara is a different matter, he could be helpful in several areas:

  • Providing a terrific shutdown partner for Mark Fayne
  • Serving as a mentor for Oscar Kledbom, Darnell Nurse and the good lord willing Martin Marincin.
  • Giving Edmonton a bona fide veteran to rely on until the kids can carry the load.

Is it worth $6.917 times three? I don’t think it is, not for a team like Edmonton—Chara’s not a guy who you bring in for a rebuild, he’s a guy you bring in to put you over the top. Man he’d be a nice add for next season, though.

chara three yearIt’s a wonderful thought, Chara against the Western Division circus and the jackals of the Pacific Division. Sadly, he’s not for the Oilers, who are destined to contend at the end or after Z’s current contract ends. He might not be in Boston for long, though.

  • Mike Zeisberger, Toronto Sun: Will he have a chance to achieve that goal while wearing a Bruins jersey? With former GM Peter Chiarelli having been replaced by ex-Bruin Don Sweeney, all bets are off. Stay tuned. Source

If the Bruins were to send Chara over in exchange for just cap room? I suspect someone will come along with a better offer. Hell, Detroit may trade for Chara and get a decade out of him. Seriously.

BOB GREEN SAYS…

I’ve done my due diligence and EVERYTHING that comes back to me about Bob Green is positive. His procurement track record is splendid (in terms of WHL acquisitions) and it’s probable the Oilers are about to add several quality prospects if Green, Stu MacGregor and Scott Howson can cobble a strong list together and have the courage of their convictions. Jason Gregor’s article at ON on Green and the draft is a must read. Two items:

  • Green: “For Scott, and Stu, and I we’ve really concentrated on the top forty to fifty players and we’ve basically watched them extensively in the last four months. I think it’s really helped us in knowing these kids.”

Meaning the first four or five picks will come from Bob McKenzie’s first two rounds (suspect there are players on Edmonton’s list that didn’t make McKenzie’s but that’s par for the course). I think it’s completely reasonable to assume the top four picks will be risk averse (say McDavid, Svechnikov, Dermott, Pilon) and inside normal based on McKenzie’s list. I don’t think the Oilers should give one damn pick to a “scout with a passion for a player” ever again, and by God if the team picks a BCJHL kid he better be bloody good.

  • Green: “I think that everybody puts a premium on size and you want to find big guys who can play. Unfortunately, they go fast in the draft but we know that as a team we have to get bigger and stronger to compete in this conference and it’s kind of the way that the game is being played right now. But as everybody knows the guys still have to be able to make plays with the puck. And a lot of it comes down to the competitiveness of the players and their ability to make plays with the puck and their ability to play in tough situations. There’s big guys at camp that don’t play well in all situations and sometimes there are smaller guys that do but it’s just something that we’ve got to deal with, sort through all of that stuff and make sure that ultimately we have guys that are going to be able to compete.”

Amen to this. If you look at the Oilers drafting 2008-2014 there’s a lot of size that simply could not play (Hesketh, Abney, Moroz, Khaira) with skill. That isn’t the fault of the player and I’m willing to accept the scouts may have been delivering what the GM wanted (some evidence here as MacT’s addition to the puzzle found the team drafting Nurse, Yakimov, Slepyshev, Draisaitl as their ‘size’ additions) but the results simply weren’t there. Of course we know there’s a difference between saying ‘you want to find big guys who can play’ and doing it, but at least we’re seeing some verbal that matches reality. There are some players inside the McKenzie top 60 who look to have the kind of skill/size combination or projectable size Edmonton may be looking for when it’s their turn. We may see Svechnikov (6.02, 199) who looks like a horse, or young Joel Eriksson (6.02, 180) who can probably add some weight and plays the kind of style Edmonton will be attempting to acquire.

  • Gorab Stubb, Dir. of European Scouting, on Eriksson: “He is a very competitive, powerful center with great speed, a good strong shot and excellent puck-handling. He is creative on the offense while reliable on defense. Likes to go to the net to create scoring chances.” Source

I’ll have my top 120 up tomorrow morning, adding in overagers and players from the hinterlands. It will be pretty close to the final list (not much will change) but I’m still trying to track down the NHL combine vital stats and that may impact things.

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday morning on the show, starting at 10 on TSN1260.

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. We’ll chat SCF and the bubbling trade rumors that are arriving daily.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. Canada gets a draw against New Zealand and lead their pool but there’s work to do Monday against the Dutch.
  • Matt Dunigan, TSN. We’ll preview the Ft. Mac showdown (Esks-Riders) and talk about Mike Reilly as an emerging impact QB.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Soccer, Oilers and we’ll preview the Saturday show.

10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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162 Responses to "SCREAMING TARGETS: ZDENO CHARA"

  1. Pajamah says:

    There is beauty, and there is Michelle Jenneke.

    That pre-race dance is hypnotic, and I’ve already forgotten what the post was about.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Pajamah:
    There is beauty, and there is Michelle Jenneke.

    That pre-race dance is hypnotic, and I’ve already forgotten what the post was about.

    It’s incredible.

  3. PhrankLee says:

    Lowetide: Pajamah:
    There is beauty, and there is Michelle Jenneke.
    That pre-race dance is hypnotic, and I’ve already forgotten what the post was about.
    It’s incredible.

    It’s the smirk. Kills me every time.

  4. PhrankLee says:

    Central Scouting only released the top 10 results in each category at the combine.

    https://link.nhl.com/centralscouting/public/

  5. Chris says:

    PhrankLee,

    She certainly seems to be enjoying herself! Yes please to Chara, even for 3 years. Wouldn’t he be worth the mentorship of our young D?

  6. PhrankLee says:

    Chris,

    If he were 35, maybe. I just don’t see him as the fit for this club.

  7. dustrock says:

    LT – Chara is at the tail end of his career, but he is a fitness freak and a competitive freak and he’s done it all.

    It might be worth it just for his teaching of our young D corps. Would he likely win a Cup with the Oilers? Probably not – but this team needs some success, and needs some success relatively quickly.

    Chara can help with that.

  8. Pajamah says:

    PhrankLee,

    It’s an evil smirk. She knows what she’s doing, and it’s making fans.

    And the combine list makes Jack Eichel look like the best 2nd overall pick ever. He is the physical Lemieux to McDavids cerebral Gretzky. Not that McDavid doesn’t have speed or agility well above his draft class, but Eichel is top 10 in damn near every category.

  9. Ducey says:

    If you look at the Oilers drafting 2008-2014 there’s a lot of size that simply could not play (Hesketh, Abney, Moroz, Khaira) with skill.

    One of those guys put up 35 goals and 63 points in 70 games in junior. Then 19 in 21 games to win the Mem Cup.

    He played top line minutes and did just fine playing with skill.

  10. misfit says:

    I don’t see Chara playing out the remainder of his contract (just a hunch), so I wouldn’t concern myself with the 3rd year of his deal. Even if he does, he’ll probably still be our best defenseman in that 3rd year as well. His contract also runs out the same time as Nurse’s ELC and potentially Klefbom’s 2nd contract depending on what it looks like (but 2-3 years seems reasonable).

    In the meantime, we add a legitimate top pairing defender, which is exactly what he is even with his age and recent injuries. Someone who can play over 20 minutes a night against the best the league has to offer, and push the likes of Klefbom, Marincin, Nurse, etc down the depth chart where they can properly develop.

    It would certainly spell the end of Marincin’s days in Edmonton, but for Chara, you definitely make that trade. Even if you’re getting a 38 year old Chara for 2 years.

    Chara – Fayne
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Marincin – Nikitin/Ference

  11. russ99 says:

    Chara’s salary isn’t super bad when you look at it like this:

    Chara:
    $7M, $5M, $4M

    Ference & Nikitin:
    $8.25M, $3.25M, $0

    In a perfect world we can get both Chara and Ference to waive NMCs in a swap of cities. And IMO, a Boston trade is the best shot to get Ference to agree to a move.

  12. dustrock says:

    Why would Boston want Ference at this point though? Especially at that salary?

  13. Chris says:

    Anyone know if the tickets for the draft party are sold out? The link says the tickets aren’t currently for sale…

  14. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT,

    Chara isn’t the first player you go after if you are Chia, but if the cap squeeze of resigning Connolly, Spooner, and potentially matching an offer sheet on Hamilton gets Boston to deal him for the cap relief, that’s great – he’d be a fantastic addition even at his age and even knowing that he won’t be around when the Oilers start to peak.

    Chara’s deal ends just as McJesus comes off his ELC. Perfect timing financially.

    You hope that Klefbom and Nurse are logging the big minutes two to three years from now so as Chara’s TOI goes down over the remaining 3 years it corresponds to their time going up.

    Kids don’t mentor kids and while I think Captain Ference is a workout fiend who challenges the kids in the gym, he simply can’t do the Messier-like “get in line” stare with the same authority as a Chara because his on-ice game simply isn’t there.

    I want this team to be threatening for a playoff spot in March. I want Marincin to have a role model/inspiration seated next to him in the locker room. I want to see Chara drill Bennet behind the net so hard that Nurse feels a need to show him up by doing the same to Monahan the following shift.

    Ok. Fantasies of a number one d-man. Friday. Michelle Jenneke. McDavid It’s all good.

  15. Showerhead says:

    I think there are lot of things about Chara that are ideal.

    1) Can do the job that will be asked of him.
    2) It’s not my money.
    3) As an elite player, is a good bet not to fall off the cliff before his 3 years are up.
    4) Would (likely) come with a (relatively) low acquisition cost. We’re not talking about multiple first rounders here.
    5) Contract expires when McDavid gets paid.

    He’s the one I hope shakes loose because:

    1) Hamilton, if that’s even possible, would come with a very dear acquisition cost.
    2) UFAs tend to get too much term, whereas Chara comes off the books at an ideal time.

  16. Hall Awaits says:

    russ99:
    Chara’s salary isn’t super bad when you look at it like this:

    Chara:
    $7M, $5M, $4M

    Ference & Nikitin:
    $8,25M, $3.25M, $0

    In a perfect world we can get both Chara and Ference to waive NMCs in a swap of cities. And IMO, Boston is the best shot to get Ference traded.

    100% agree with this. If there is a choice between Chara and Ference you take Chara every time despite age and salary.

    Would love to see Michalek brought in to play the toughs with Chara. That of course if Schultz and Nikitin are gone. That NY Rangers trade scenario LT brought up the other day had me thinking this:

    Chara / Michalek
    Klefbom / Klein
    Nurse / Fayne
    Davidson

    This next 3 weeks is going to be crazy.

  17. 15w40 says:

    I think Chara is a good fit. Limit his minutes to 5×5 and some penalty kill so he doesn’t wear out. He would be good for Marincin, Nurse, and Klefbom. Boston may be willing to take Nikitin back just to free up cap space and buy him out. Real dollars out for Chara is 6.9M, 5M, and 4M in years remaining respectively.

    They need cap space for Hamilton BADLY or he may turn into magic beans on an offer sheet.

    What is a smarter signing long term? This Chara contract, or Franson at $6M over the next 5 years. Chara has more to offer the younger players and his cap hit is gone when Nurse, Klefbom, and McDavid need to re-up for more $$$.

    For where this defensive core is at Chara checks off a lot of the boxes. Now would he waive to come here that’s another question

  18. dustrock says:

    Let’s not forget the intimidation factor. No one, other than maybe ol’ Georges, would want to face off against an angry Chara.

    http://i.imgur.com/A8SxdTW.jpg

  19. czar says:

    You have to take your warm up seriously, no matter what the sport.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAmqsfwGG7Q

  20. gd says:

    I think the Oilers getting Chara is the best fit for both teams, other than the Oilers having Boston’s fired GM.

    The key to this season is to turn north, get Connor to enjoy himself so much he can’t imagine leaving and putting Klef, Nurse and Marancin in the best position to develop as quickly and effectively into top4 Dman. I think Chara is the best acquisition option in terms of longterm cap space and asset cost, that will help achieve those goals.

    I think his cap hit will be too expensive for any cup contender. I don’t think Anaheim can take him as they have Lindholm/Kesler and their goalies to resign next year. Calgary could take him, but they have Gio/Goudreau/Monahan to resign next year. I just don’t think Detroit fits because I don’t think they can afford him and I would think Boston wouldn’t want him in their division.

    I believe the Bs need to get rid of one of Lucic, Hamilton or Chara, and Chara makes the most sense to me. I would think the 33rd pick + prospect might be the best deal the B’s can get. If the Oilers got Chara and a reasonable UFA goalie, I think they can turn north this year and put them in better shape to get the long term top 4 dman next offseason.

  21. Racki says:

    Some people who watch Boston way more than I do have said that Chara is really showing the wear now. I would love his mentorship here, but with 3 years on his deal left, we could really regret this. Is there, and if so what is it, a cap recapture penalty if he retires before contract is up?

    The idea in general is great.. Older vet with some good info to pass along.. But we have to make sure he isn’tgoing to be a boat anchor one year down the road. Something tells me he wouldn’t be, but I don’t know. It might be a smarter/safer approach to target someone else on a shorter deal.

  22. slopitch says:

    Id have time for Chara. I dont care if he’s on the downside of his career. He’s still miles ahead of all our D. He’d be the perfect mentor/shelter for Nurse.

    Just did some reading on that Erikkson kid. Fan of him plus the fact Im a fan of mining in Sweden. Still think Svechnikov should be the target. I hope they don’t bother with a kid like Brandon Carlo. I want guys who dominate in junior more then players with size who we hope develop. Domination includes putting up points. You dont spend 1st rounders on shutdown dmen. Id bet he doesnt make it to 20th though.

    I go back and forth daily on what I want the Oilers to do. Keep the picks and grow internally or fast track things and move them for help now. Can we fast forward 2 weeks?!?

  23. slopitch says:

    Racki:
    Some people who watch Boston way more than I do have said that Chara is reallyshowing the wear now. I would love his mentorship here, but with 3 years on his deal left, we could really regret this. Is there, and if so what is it, a cap recapture penalty if he retires before contract is up?

    The idea in general is great.. Older vet with some good info to pass along.. But we have to make sure he isn’tgoing to be a boat anchor one year down the road. Something tells me he wouldn’t be, but I don’t know. It might be a smarter/safer approach to target someone else on a shorter deal.

    There is where you have to trust Chai. I do know that Chara played most of the year on a banged up knee. Lidstrom was effective till 40 but played a much different style.

  24. DBO says:

    I have said this many times, but Chara is the perfect fit for this team. Why?

    He is, right now, a true number 1. At least for 1, maybe 2 years as a top 2 dman
    No one better to mentor Nurse
    His money comes off books when McJesus gets paid
    His last year he will be a 3rd pairing mentor to whatever high end dman we draft this year, and always a monster on the PK
    He adds instant snarl, grit, toughness, (insert buzz word)
    He instantly improves our PP and PK
    He guarantees Klefbom plays no higher then 2nd pairing this year, so he is not thrown into the deep end
    Increases likelihood Nurse starts in minors, which is a good thing
    And due to cap hit, age and injury, he should not cost near as much as some top end dman
    All but guarantees one of Ference or Nikitin are gone, through trade or buyout (and that is no small positive)

    Chara – Fayne
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Marincin – Ference (Michalek)
    Davidson (Ference)

    And if they go crazy and add a vet mid range dman like Michalek, then playoffs are a possibility as long as we get average goaltending.

  25. Chris says:

    I think that some if the enthusiasm for a Chara trade is based off our recollection of how Chara played over the past decade. I recall reading that Chara had played most of the season with a torn ACL. That is a significant injury to an older player with three years at a high dollar value. There is a strong chance that Big Z goes Ryan Whitney in you with a bum wheel rather than drinking from Ray Whitney’s fountain of youth.

  26. Showerhead says:

    Chris:
    I think that some if the enthusiasm for a Chara trade is based off our recollection of how Chara played over the past decade. I recall reading that Chara had played most of the season with a torn ACL. That is a significant injury to an older player with three years at a high dollar value. There is a strong chance that Big Z goes Ryan Whitney in you with a bum wheel rather than drinking from Ray Whitney’s fountain of youth.

    Also maybe he goes Houston Whitney and retires early, citing a want to just dance with somebody.

  27. Racki says:

    slopitch: There is where you have to trust Chai. I do know that Chara played most of the year on a banged up knee. Lidstrom was effective till 40 but played a much different style.

    This is the case (the knee) and he still has a permanent PCL issue. Not sure how much that will bother him though. And yes, that’s the thing.. You can get away with playing a non physical game like Lindstrom did for a while. Less the case for the physical guys (although some did manage to have long careers). I think as long as two things happened, I’d be all for it.. B’s retain a bit of salary (nothing tremendous.. 2m?) and we didn’t pay much in return.

    I do think Chara has a lot to offer in that brain of his that makes it worth it even if he moves like a glacier these days, but we can’t hinder ourselves with a big contract either if he can’t keep up so well. Something tells me that even a sluggish Chara is better than what we have seen here though.

    One last thing, not being a doctor.. No idea how serious a PCL tear is and if it’s going to lead to a very bad Chara for the remainder of his years

  28. ironsight says:

    Chara is not what he once was, but that enormous blue bubble in that ridiculously tough portion of the sledgehammer shows that even on a bum wheel the guy is still an absolute monster.

    It is also EXTREMELY important to note that Chara’s cap hit is not $6.9m x 3. Rather, it is $6.9m for 2 years and then $4m in the final year of his deal. This was a result of the NHL clamping down on back-diving contracts.

    If the Bruins would take some salary back, say Ference, then the marginal increase to the Oilers’ salary grid is just $3.6m, $3.6m and $4m. That’s incredibly manageable.

  29. Showerhead says:

    Chris:
    I think that some if the enthusiasm for a Chara trade is based off our recollection of how Chara played over the past decade. I recall reading that Chara had played most of the season with a torn ACL. That is a significant injury to an older player with three years at a high dollar value. There is a strong chance that Big Z goes Ryan Whitney in you with a bum wheel rather than drinking from Ray Whitney’s fountain of youth.

    More seriously, my enthusiasm for Chara comes from his Vollman chart LT posted above. That is some intense usage and he comes out looking squeaky clean.

    His point totals have dipped slightly in recent years but only slightly.

    If he can play tough opposition with an awful zone start and come out like he has, that is a hugely valuable player.

  30. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    Chara’s salary isn’t super bad when you look at it like this:

    Chara:
    $7M, $5M, $4M

    Ference & Nikitin:
    $8.25M, $3.25M, $0

    In a perfect world we can get both Chara and Ference to waive NMCs in a swap of cities. And IMO, a Boston trade is the best shot to get Ference to agree to a move.

    Cap hit is 6.9 all 3 years though.

    The only person concerned with actual dollars is Katz and he doesn’t post here afaik

    If Chia manages to acquire Chara while moving Ference and not giving up a pick higher than 57 I’ll build a statue of Chia out of cheese and make it my new household god.

  31. Hammers says:

    My Dad always said a good big man is worth more than a good little man with one exception, Heart as if the little man has heart and lots of it it can balance out in favour of the little man . skill equal but that unknown is worth a ton . I would take Chara because he also has heart. He could show many of our D the way. Actually the same goes for forwards and heart is the one extra that Hall brings. Not knocking Ebs or Hopkins but the only other player that wears his heart on his sleeve like Hall is Yak . Boy do we need those types of players .

  32. Messier11edm says:

    First of all, let me say it took a few minutes of watching that pre-race dance before I could start writing – then I forgot what I was going to write about….now I remember..

    I think Chara was an amazing defenseman but I don’t think he’s the guy should be looking at paying big money for moving forward. Age, injuries, etc. have taken a toll, and as many others on this discussion have said, his skills are only diminishing.

    Dougie Hamiliton on the other hand would be the right type of defenseman to go after – but is it worth doing an offer sheet knowing all the draft picks that we would give up? I’m probably less concerened about the next few years draft picks with the young talent we have, but still, kinda struggling with that one.

    Any reason we wouldn’t be looking at Shea Webber? I know that seems to be the name that had been dropped over the past few years but now it seems to be quite on that front. He will be turning 30 this summer, brings tons of experience and leadership. Is it because we think the cost would be too much with Nashville? Does it have to do with his recent knee injury?

    When I think about it, we will have to pay any #1 defenseman a boat load of money, so we are going to deal with cap issues down the road no matter what, whether we offer sheet or we trade. The difference is with the offer sheet we are giving up uknown talent, whereas with a trade we are giving up talent we likely hold very dear.

  33. BrazilianOil says:

    russ99:
    Chara’s salary isn’t super bad when you look at it like this:

    Chara:
    $7M, $5M, $4

    And you can try to trade him the last year of his contract to a cap floor team.

  34. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Chara would be a great guy to bring in simply for the fact that he is a polyglot.
    Chara being able to translate for all the gems Bob Green pulls in from the Hinterlands would be worth the last three years of his contract.
    And although Chara is a polyglot, let’s just hope he doesn’t speak BCJHL…

  35. HiddenDarts says:

    Chara would be a number 1 for the Oilers now. It’s as simple as that. The Bruins (or most teams, frankly) would NEVER take Ference. It’s just not gonna happen. A cursory look at the advanced stats is a crimson flag. Actually watching some of his minutes on video? Er. Bad idea.

    How they could make this trade is beyond me. Haggerty continues on his daily “Chris Kelly for Eberle” crusade, so could anyone honestly see the Bruins getting ripped off here?

    Can’t see it. I would be stunned if it happened. Like, the power of Michelle Jenneke-stunned.

  36. Clay says:

    If they get Chara, I think it would be a Godsend for Marincin. Fellow countryman, excellent mentor, and Chara would advocate for Marincin with regards to Chiarelli.

    Not to mention the immense value of having Chara set the example for Nurse and Kbomb.

    I’m for it, depending on price.

  37. commonfan14 says:

    DBO: All but guarantees one of Ference or Nikitin are gone, through trade or buyout (and that is no small positive)

    Does Chara come if he thinks it’ll cost Ference his job?

  38. gd says:

    Woodguy: Cap hit is 6.9 all 3 years though.

    The only person concerned with actual dollars is Katz and he doesn’t post here afaik

    If Chia manages to acquire Chara while moving Ference and not giving up a pick higher than 57 I’ll build a statue of Chia out of cheese and make it my new household god.

    I keep getting conflicting info on the last year of Chara’s contract. The cap websites that I have gone to say the cap hit is $4Mill due to it being his 40yr old season. I think the over-cap payment that he receives is what makes him the perfect fit for the Oilers. We have the cap space until Connor’s second contract, especially in the 2nd year, which is when almost any other team can’t fit him in their cap space. The Oilers might be the B’s only option to trade him, if he is who they decide to trade between him, Hamilton and Lucic.

    I can’t stress this enough, Chara is an expensive placeholder for three years on our top 4, but I think that is better than having Franson for 5 years at $5.5 or Seabrook for 7 years at $6.5. A Chara pickup buys one year for Chia/TMc to evaluate and saves the big moves for next year.

  39. Ducey says:

    Chara has a complete no movement clause and there is no reason in the world the Bruins need to trade him just to EDM.

    Chara would be sought after by a large number of teams. They will not need to take back a Ference to trade him.

    I can’t see him being traded this summer under Neely’s watch as they have given no indication of a tear down and in fact have reiterated they want to win this year.

    If the Bruins have a lousy 1st half, maybe they will trade Chara at the deadline and start a tear down.

    Anyway, the odds of Chara coming to EDM this summer are very, very low.

  40. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: The $6.9 million cap hit is for ALL three years, since it is a 35 plus contract, even if he plays only two years. That cap hit cannot be reduced by a buyout.

    He was under 35 when he signed the deal, so the cap hit does go poof if he retires.

  41. El Duderino says:

    Chara–forget about it. He’d be a $ 6.9 million sinkhole and every fan would be whining by December.

  42. commonfan14 says:

    Ducey: Anyway, the odds of Chara coming to EDM this summer are very, very low.

    10.5% maybe?

  43. Klima's_Bucket says:

    godot10: The $6.9 million cap hit is for ALL three years, since it is a 35 plus contract, even if he plays only two years. That cap hit cannot be reduced by a buyout.

    Chara signed his 7 year deal in 2010 when he was 33.
    If memory serves, this means his contract is NOT a 35 plus contract since he signed it before turning 35.
    I could be wrong though.

  44. DBO says:

    Ducey:
    Chara has a complete no movement clause and there is no reason in the world the Bruins need to trade him just to EDM.

    Chara would be sought after by a large number of teams.They will not need to take back a Ference to trade him.

    I can’t see him being traded this summer under Neely’s watch as they have given no indication of a tear down and in fact have reiterated they want to win this year.

    If the Bruins have a lousy 1st half, maybe they will trade Chara at the deadline and start a tear down.

    Anyway, the odds of Chara coming to EDM this summer are very, very low.

    So what you are saying is that there is a chance! Yes!

  45. AsiaOil says:

    Obtaining Chara and Anderson would do so much for this team and it’s development. Send Ference away and we are pretty much good to go. You can make a case for giving Shultz and Nikitin another go – but there is no case at all for Ference who must disappear to move forward. Chara, even at his age, would be a godsend to the young dmen. It will cost #16 though…..

  46. speeds says:

    Woodguy: Cap hit is 6.9 all 3 years though.

    The only person concerned with actual dollars is Katz and he doesn’t post here afaik

    If Chia manages to acquire Chara while moving Ference and not giving up a pick higher than 57 I’ll build a statue of Chia out of cheese and make it my new household god.

    I thought I’d read they changed how the cap hit worked for post-40 years, that’s what this article suggests anyways?

    http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nhl/news/story?id=5665335

  47. Ducey says:

    commonfan14: 10.5% maybe?

    Based on my detailed mathematical model, I am going to say 1.89 % 🙂

    You have to figure that there are 20 teams that would be happy to trade for him. That’s 1 in 20 alone. Factor in the fact he likely won’t get traded, and that he likely wouldn’t waive to come to a rebuild in EDM, and maybe I need to revise that number down even more.

  48. j says:

    Messier11edm,

    You raise a good point about Webber. It seemed he was all the rage around here when we didn’t have the assets/confidence/vision and now that we have these in spades his name has dropped off considerably. I agree he would cost a lot (acquisition and real costs) but would Nashville bite on picks, Yak and a prospect given the depth they have on the back end? He is a few years past the ideal window but remains near the top of the league in terms of his game.

  49. ironsight says:

    speeds,

    Exactly. The cap hit is $4m in the final season of the deal. That makes it immensely more palatable.

    As for other teams looking at Chara, I’m not so sure. There are not a lot of teams with $7m in cap space and a desire to spend the same in real dollars. The Oilers are in a unique position here and are poised to take advantage of a team like the B’s offloading real talent. Let’s not forget that Chara has a full NMC and a relationship with Chiarelli dating back to 2001. In fact, Chia had a hand in signing him to his last 3 contracts. If Chia can sell Chara on his vision for this team and convince him that it will be competing for a cup in 16-17 and 17-18, then he may see that as reason enough to waive his NMC.

  50. OF17 says:

    Add me to the “trade for Chara” bandwagon. He’d be far and away our best defender next year, a legit 1D, and even with the wear and tear, he’s a good bet to still be a good top-4 guy the following year and a reasonable top-4 guy in year 3.

    Think of how much that helps Nurse and Klefbom, not only in terms of having 3 years of Chara’s brain to pick but in the cover that he provides. They’d have time to develop, to make mistakes, and improve their games rather than being thrown into 23 minutes of ice time in their rookie years. That kind of thing can have a lasting effect long after the veteran leaves. Let’s not forget Adam Oates’s effect on the 2000s Oilers.

    Yakimov + 33 for Chara. Yeah, Yakimov and 33 are both good pieces, but so is Chara. I honestly think 3 years of Chara would be better for the organization long and short term than 2 pretty good prospects would be.

  51. misfit says:

    So, back to what we were all thinking about (or were until the Jenneke gif went up)…the draft.

    Lots of talk about possibly taking Samsonov with the #16. This seems like a good draft for goalies, and Samsonov is considered the best of the bunch. I don’t know if he’s “16 overall in a deep draft” good though. We can probably agree that he won’t be there at 33.

    If we’re looking towards a later round goalie, I think Jake Morrissey of Kelowna could be a real unknown gem. He was a backup this year so he played in a limited number of games, but his numbers were excellent and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft, if not the youngest.

    His situation reminds me a lot of Steve Mason in his draft year, and his numbers are nearly identical (.932 SV%, 1.98GAA in 11 games). I have no idea where he’s projected to go, but if we can get him with the 117 or later, I’d be thrilled.

  52. v4ance says:

    I know Carl Soderberg’s name has been bandied about but what is a realistic contract number for him?

    He made $1 million on a 2 year contract with Boston and he’s 29 years old looking for his best payday.

    Ryan Batty pegs him at $3.5-4 million per year (http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/11/8765063/soderberg-oilers-free-agency). At that number, I’d pass because that’s a cap hit that we can’t afford if we need to fill spots on D and G first.

    I look at it as: How much can we afford to pay our 3rd line center or a 3rd line winger? If you think that Draisaitl will be the 3C of the future, do we really need to pay Soderberg that much or is a $1M 1 year deal for Derek Roy a better stopgap. Especially at that price point?

    I understand that there’s a fit for Edmonton with his past history with PC and a desire to pair Yak with a vet C… but in a cap world, we can’t keep repeating the mistake of over paying for depth D and bottom 6 forwards.

  53. gd says:

    ironsight:
    speeds,

    Exactly.The cap hit is $4m in the final season of the deal.That makes it immensely more palatable.

    As for other teams looking at Chara, I’m not so sure.There are not a lot of teams with $7m in cap space and a desire to spend the same in real dollars.The Oilers are in a unique position here and are poised to take advantage of a team like the B’s offloading real talent.Let’s not forget that Chara has a full NMC and a relationship with Chiarelli dating back to 2001.In fact, Chia had a hand in signing him to his last 3 contracts.If Chia can sell Chara on his vision for this team and convince him that it will be competing for a cup in 16-17 and 17-18, then he may see that as reason enough to waive his NMC.

    That’s the thing. He can decide where he goes. I just don’t think any cup contenders can afford him. We have the GM he has played for most of his career. Chia sells him on competing for cup in 16-17 with a promise to trade him to a contender at the 16-17 if it isn’t happening and we might be Boston’s only option. I don’t see him waiving the NTC for Carolina and the only other team I could possibly see being able to trade for him would may be Columbus.

  54. Truth says:

    If only they could get rid of Nikitin somehow. To pay Chara $2.4M more than what Nikitin is getting now would be an easy choice, provided you could get Nikitin’s salary off the books somehow…Trade, LTIR, defect to Russia…

  55. Kitchener says:

    Zdeno Chara is not the “Zdeno Chara” we’re looking for. With full and complete respect to Mr. Chara, targeting a 38 year old player with 3 years left on a big contract is shortsighted.

    Comparing an apple to an orange, I’d rather take Phaneuf despite everything said here: http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/10/kessel-versus-phaneuf Why? At the END of Phaneuf’s contract he’ll still be two years younger than Chara is today.

    I know, Chara is a better player than Phaneuf, but betting against Father Time is like betting against gravity.

    EDIT: I don’t think going after Phaneuf makes sense either.

  56. gd says:

    Truth:
    If only they could get rid of Nikitin somehow.To pay Chara $2.4M more than what Nikitin is getting now would be an easy choice, provided you could get Nikitin’s salary off the books somehow…Trade, LTIR, defect to Russia…

    If they get Chara, NN is an easy buyout for me. That $1.5 on the books for 2016-17 can be a reminder to Chia about taking MacT/Howson’s advice with a grain of salt. Ference can then wait for next year for his buyout.

  57. Messier11edm says:

    j:
    Messier11edm,

    You raise a good point about Webber.It seemed he was all the rage around here when we didn’t have the assets/confidence/vision and now that we have these in spades his name has dropped off considerably.I agree he would cost a lot (acquisition and real costs) but would Nashville bite on picks, Yak and a prospect given the depth they have on the back end?He is a few years past the ideal window but remains near the top of the league in terms of his game.

    I guess I’m wondering why his name isn;t being discussed. It seems all d trades are being linked back to Boston (for obvious reasons)…but I don’t see a trade with Boston being a simple thing. Last think you wamt to happen is to be robbed by your previous employee.

  58. Messier11edm says:

    My Prediction (for what its worth) ….

    Chara does get traded…but not to Edm.

    Which allows Bos to sign Dougie to a new deal or matches any offer sheet.

    And no trades happen bw the Bruins and Oilers for atleast one full season

  59. Bling says:

    I think Chara is a great target.

    He’s older and probably slowing down a little bit, sure, but elite D tend to age well. Even if we project him downwards from where he is, he is still a legit top pairing D on this team.

    The ACL item is a non-issue. He would’ve played through the worst of it last year, and did pretty good by the looks of it. Should be recovered by now.

    His cap term makes a lot of sense as well — he’ll be expiring just as McDavid does, and presumably by then Klef and Nurse will be legit first pairing D.

    I think it’s a terrific idea.

  60. godot10 says:

    misfit:

    Lots of talk about possibly taking Samsonov with the #16.This seems like a good draft for goalies, and Samsonov is considered the best of the bunch.I don’t know if he’s “16 overall in a deep draft” good though.We can probably agree that he won’t be there at 33.

    Disagree on both counts. It does not appear to be a particularly good draft for goaltenders, certainly not relative to the rest of the draft.

    And no, we cannot agree that he won’t be there at 33. With the talent available in this draft, no reasonable GM is going to draft a goaltender in the first round.

  61. Klima's_Bucket says:

    For the Record:
    Chara had a PCL injury this past season.
    That is a lot easier to bounce back from than an ACL injury.

  62. Woodguy says:

    speeds: I thought I’d read they changed how the cap hit worked for post-40 years, that’s what this article suggests anyways?

    http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nhl/news/story?id=5665335

    Had no idea that rule existed.

    Thanks for the link and apologies to all for my error.

  63. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Kitchener:
    Zdeno Chara is not the “Zdeno Chara” we’re looking for.With full and complete respect to Mr. Chara, targeting a 38 year old player with 3 years left on a big contract is shortsighted.

    Comparing an apple to an orange, I’d rather take Phaneuf despite everything said here: http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/10/kessel-versus-phaneuf Why?At the END of Phaneuf’s contract he’ll still be two years younger than Chara is today.

    I know, Chara is a better player than Phaneuf, but betting against Father Time is like betting against gravity.

    EDIT:I don’t think going after Phaneuf makes sense either.

    That’s crazy. You are saying you’d rather have Phaneuf, functionally, because he’s younger.

    The thing is, Chara today (at 38) is better than Phaneuf today, not even to begin talking about mid 30s Phaneuf. You are basically betting that Phaneuf will get better as he ages. Worst case scenario Chara in year 3 of this deal is slightly worse than Phaneuf in year 3, but then we’re done with him and Phaneuf will have, what, 4 years of regression ahead of him?

    This doesn’t even begin to talk about the added value of a guy like Chara to the locker room in a mentorship role.

    It’s not an argument in favor of Chara so much as it’s an argument in favor of Chara vs. Phaneuf. That said I’m still pro Chara.

  64. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10:

    no reasonable GM is going to draft a goaltender in the first round.

    To be fair, history tells us lots of GMs aren’t reasonable.

  65. misfit says:

    godot10: Disagree on both counts.It does not appear to be a particularly good draft for goaltenders, certainly not relative to the rest of the draft.

    And no, we cannot agree that he won’t be there at 33.With the talent available in this draft, no reasonable GM is going to draft a goaltender in the first round.

    A good draft for goalies relative to the last few draft years. I should point out that I don’t consider this a terribly strong draft for NA goalies and the strength and depth of this class lies mainly in the European quotient.

    I guess it’s possible that Samsonov is there at 33, but based on a lot of the verbal and almost every scouting service’s ranking, I would say there’s a good chance at least one goes in the 1st. It also appears that Samsonov is most likely to be the first goalie off the boards.

    Goaltenders at the draft are like running backs in football. A lot of the good ones in the league were taken in later rounds, and they often say never to draft one in the first round. But it also tends to be very cyclical. We haven’t seen a goalie go in the 1st in the last 2 years, and there are a lot of teams with multiple 1sts and an organizational need at the position. I’d say the odds are very good we see at least one off the board in the first round, and with Samsonov the top ranked goalie pretty much everywhere, it only stands to reason he won’t last until the 3rd pick in the 2nd round.

    Also, 1/3 of the league’s starting goalies were drafted in the 1st round. How is it unreasonable to take a goalie with a 1st?

  66. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    The crazy in Glendale is now confirmed. We can only speculate as to it’s source (toxoplasmosis?), but it’s real.

    Glendale mayor, days after cancelling the lease for the Yotes, has agreed to be tasered for charity, if $10k is raised:

    azcentralVerified account
    ‏@azcentral
    Want to use a Taser on #Glendale Mayor Jerry Weiers? Here’s your chance: http://azc.cc/1FKhu5J

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    My dream draft scenario is Kylington sliding to us at #33 and Vladar sliding to the #55 pick.

    I’m hoping Chia auctions #16 at the very last second for a vet Dman. We need a plug and play roster player on D more than another prospect from that pick imo

    Lastly, I’d love Chiarelli to announce at the podium, “With the first pick in this year’s draft, the Edmonton Oilers select Jack…………………………………………..just kidding, Connor McJesus McDavid. Suck it Calgary!”

  68. Mesmer says:

    Racki,

    There would definitely be a cap recapture penalty to Boston if Chara retires in two years. It’s a little difficult for me to tell you what it is because I can’t get the numbers (from Capgeek originally) to add up properly. Nevertheless, the Bruins would be looking at about 2.5 million in cap recapture if Chara retires in 2 years (depending on which number you use) (The total cap hit doesn’t add up tot the total value of the contract)

    There would be no recapture to any team acquiring him this off-season (or next) if he retires in 2 years.

    Edit: Ahhh thanks Speeds. That article cleared up the numbers completely. Wish I had read it before I wrecked my brain trying to figure out what I was missing

    The recapture penalty would still stand, about 1.8 million

  69. G Money says:

    Defensemen stay effective longer than you’d expect.

    What gets them seems to be injury that forces them out of the game.

    If we were to get Chara, I expect he would be quite effective, a legit 1D, when he’s playing.

    I just don’t think it’s reasonable to expect more than 40 games a year out of him at this point, and that number is likely to decline as he gets ever closer to 40.

    $6.9M is bargain for a legit 1D.

    But you have to ask the question as to whether its good use of money for 40 or fewer games worth of a 1D.

  70. Rational Zealot says:

    Kitchener:
    Zdeno Chara is not the “Zdeno Chara” we’re looking for.With full and complete respect to Mr. Chara, targeting a 38 year old player with 3 years left on a big contract is shortsighted.

    Comparing an apple to an orange, I’d rather take Phaneuf despite everything said here: http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/10/kessel-versus-phaneuf Why?At the END of Phaneuf’s contract he’ll still be two years younger than Chara is today.

    I know, Chara is a better player than Phaneuf, but betting against Father Time is like betting against gravity.

    EDIT:I don’t think going after Phaneuf makes sense either.

    Couldn’t agree more. The cliff, it beckons.

  71. Showerhead says:

    G Money:
    Defensemen stay effective longer than you’d expect.

    What gets them seems to be injury that forces them out of the game.

    If we were to get Chara, I expect he would be quite effective, a legit 1D, when he’s playing.

    I just don’t think it’s reasonable to expect more than 40 games a year out of him at this point, and that number is likely to decline as he gets ever closer to 40.

    $6.9M isbargain for a legit 1D.

    But you have to ask the question as to whether its good use of money for 40 or fewer games worth of a 1D.

    That’s a pretty bold leap to assume your 40 games played limit.

    Even in this, an “injured” season, Chara played 63**/82 games.

    In his last 3 seasons, he’s played 188/212 games, and the further back you go the more impressively durable he looks.

    Chara hasn’t been injury prone. He had an injury, which it would appear he came back from rather strongly. I agree with your other points strongly enough (he will be a very good player when playing and his price is completely reasonable) that I like the idea of a trade*.

    *As always, depends on what you have to give up.
    **edit (typo.) the math that leads to 188/212 is still accurate.

  72. godot10 says:

    misfit:

    Also, 1/3 of the league’s starting goalies were drafted in the 1st round.How is it unreasonable to take a goalie with a 1st?

    How many are playing for the team that drafted them? That is the more important data point. Price and Ward…only two I think.

    And contrast that with #1 centres, or #1 defensemen.

  73. Woodguy says:

    Sunil Agnihotri is now writing for C&B

    Knocks it out of the part with an analysis of how Marincin stacks up against a few other 22 year old Dmen you may know.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

  74. hoser313 says:

    Absolutely do it.

    It would be worth it just for the look of sheer horror that would appear on Canuck fan faces.

    Seriously, Jim Hughson would never announce an Oilers game the same way again.

  75. jake70 says:

    Boston did not make the post-season this year. Extra 8 weeks or so for Chara to heal up and rest up physically and mentally. Some of these elite players have played one pile of hockey last several years – wonder if that’s what did LA in, just ran out of gas. He may come back next season in great form. A lot of money though.

  76. B S says:

    1. Assuming the price isn’t too steep (#33 + late picks for e.g.), Chara is exactly what this team could use, assuming we get another vet, top 4 dman.

    2. Bruins won’t do it. They won’t trade with Chiapet right after the let him go (regardless of how good a fit it is for both teams Bruins don’t want to risk the optics), they won’t give up Chara for a few picks and or prospects, (I’d guess they’d be looking for Fayne and Klefbom, or Nurse, which is of course a non-starter).

    3. Bruins may find another trade partner (as mentioned Calgary could be a good fit), but personally I don’t think they should do it. He’s the face of the franchise and the fan’s most beloved player, at some point they need to weigh legacy vs getting some middling prospect, or a 25% chance at an nhl player. Not to mention despite playing injured he’s still their best defenseman. They should let him retire as a Bruin.

  77. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy:
    Sunil Agnihotri is now writing for C&B

    Knocks it out of the part with an analysis of how Marincin stacks up against a few other 22 year old Dmen you may know.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

    Great article. Sunil is a constant stream of well reasoned arguments and thoughtful logic.

    I would caution that, as impressive as Marincin’s company appears, the criteria are set up to flatter him a little. MM’s team D was a little bit of a tire fire and the likelihood of a positive relative Corsi in Edm 2014/2015 was a lot higher than on the teams of some of his peers.

    The point stands: Marincin should be valued. I’d just caution against anyone looking at that heady company and taking their conclusions too far.

  78. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    You bet. I’m going out on a bit of a limb in drawing a line at 40. Maybe it’s 50. Maybe it’s 30. Maybe it’s 0.

    The fact that he’s been so durable til now, and went down this last year with not one but two injuries should give you pause.

    I don’t know what the number of games he’ll play will be, but will be impressed and surprised if its much higher than 40.

    What I would almost certainly expect is that with a 38-year-old body and a permanently torn PCL in tow, his 67 games last year will be the seasonal high water mark for the rest of his career.

  79. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: Knocks it out of the part with an analysis of how Marincin stacks up against a few other 22 year old Dmen you may know.
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

    That is a great article. Lock guys like this up early. He handles himself well at 22 with severe ZS. 2.25/5years.

    Like Nashville did. That team is looking like geniuses with that Josi contact. 4 M!! If they signed him to a bridge deal he would pull 6.5 in UFA after next year. Assuming a 2.75-3M/2yr bridge deal..

  80. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy:
    Sunil Agnihotri is now writing for C&B

    Knocks it out of the part with an analysis of how Marincin stacks up against a few other 22 year old Dmen you may know.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

    First article on C&B I have read in three years. Congrats to them on possibly getting some readers back and to Sunil for an excellent first article!

  81. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    G Money: but will be impressed and surprised if its much higher than 40.

    40 seems like a good over/under number.

    Bruins fans that I know (and one who has played at high levels, and is generally a pretty keen observer), say that the time to move Chara is now. In order to still get some value from him, and before those old knees and hips finally give in to the duress of supporting that 255 lb frame for this long.

    As we know from our experience with former Bruin defenders, even the most ardent fitness freak can not hold back the ravages of time, although Chara has done well to date.

    This is where having Chelli in charge is key. If Chara is available, he’ll have a better understanding of what Chara still has left in the tank.

  82. Jaxon says:

    Ducey:
    If you look at the Oilers drafting 2008-2014 there’s a lot of size that simply could not play (Hesketh, Abney, Moroz, Khaira) with skill.

    One of those guys put up 35 goals and 63 points in 70 games in junior.Then 19 in 21 games to win the Mem Cup.

    He played top line minutes and did just fine playing with skill.

    But he did that in his draft +2 year. If you’re not well over a point/gp in your draft +2, you’re probably not making the NHL, even as a grinder. Hell, if you’re not getting a pt/gp in your draft season, you’re probably not making it. As a comparison, career 3rd/4th liner Boyd Gordon had 81pts in 56 gp in his draft +1 season. Korostolev had 53 pts in 55 games this year in the WHL and will probably go at around 69th. Keegan Kolesar, who had slightly better numbers this season than Moroz will probably go around 88th. There is now way they should have gone for Moroz at #32, more like #90-#120.

  83. grim.oil says:

    We don’t need someone to mentor our young D. We need D that are ready to win now. The time for mentor ship is over. That’s why Ference was brought here. I vote “No” for acquiring Chara. Not like my vote counts but he is on the downside of his career and he just spent the last while mentoring our next D man, Dougie. If we are bringing in another mentor than this rebuild is stalled to the point where Hall and Eberle are UFA. The time is now. I know its hard to see through all the smog of losing we have been dealt but some of these young studs are not young anymore. I also vote “no” to trading Marincin. I feel he has far more value on the ice than on the trade block. He is after all our 2nd best D as of right now. Please don’t Petry him.

  84. Showerhead says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): 40 seems like a good over/under number.

    Bruins fans that I know (and one who has played at high levels, and is generally a pretty keen observer), say that the time to move Chara is now. In order to still get some value from him, and before those old knees and hips finally give in to the duress of supporting that 255 lb frame for this long.

    As we know from our experience with former Bruin defenders, even the most ardent fitness freak can not hold back the ravages of time, although Chara has done well to date.

    This is where having Chelli in charge is key. If Chara is available, he’ll have a better understanding of what Chara still has left in the tank.

    As a high water mark for his last 3 seasons, I’d definitely bet the over on 40 games re: Zdeno Chara.

    A 35, 36, and 37 year old Ryan Smyth played 82, 47, and 72 games. He was younger but had sustained way more injuries and was less elite than Chara.

    A 38, 39, 40, and 41 year old Niklas Lidstrom played 78, 82, 82, and 70 games. He had not just been injured and he was even more elite than Chara.

    I mean, unless you guys all know something about PCLs that I don’t, setting 40 as the high water mark sounds terribly low to me. Chara missed 35 games total in the entire decade prior to this most recent season. I’d be more inclined to think of his most recent 63 game season as my guess for the average # he plays in the next 3.

    And I still don’t think that’s an aggressive target.

  85. Adam Wu says:

    Hmm.

    Chara, at the edge of the cliff = instant #1 on Oilers depth chart

    Chara, in free fall off the cliff, halfway down = still top 4 on Oilers depth chart

    Chara, splattered at bottom of the cliff = probably still 4-5 on Oilers depth chart! (At the very least he’ll land on top of, and therefore stay above, that OTHER splattered grease stain at the bottom Father Time’s cliff, ie Ference…)

    If you can get 1 year out of him at edge of cliff but not falling, and one more year of him falling, but not yet all the way down, that’s still 2 years of solid value plus 2 years of credible mentorship for the young D. A player of Chara’s elite status and pedigree should have enough credibility to remain a positive leadership presence in the room even in the midst of the cliff free fall, so long as he got a year of still-elitish performance with his young teammates to establish his cred directly with them, prior to that.

    Chara at bottom of cliff could be bought out of the last year of his contract, convinced to retire, or perhaps even flipped to a contender at the deadline for that one last golden years run.

    So, my humble opinion is that if you think you have a reasonable shot of 1 and a half seasons out of 3 of not yet all the way off the cliff production from Chara, he’s worth the getting.

  86. Yak2 says:

    I would take Chara. Sure he had knee problems this past year but that was the only year he missed significant time due to injury. Look at guys like Gonchar and Visnovsky who have injury filled careers and they still want to play at their age. The same thing was said with Jagr a few years ago. No one wanted to give him multi-year deals because they weren’t sure if he wanted to continue playing. He’s still playing!! Chara is still a very good defenseman and I would take him in a heartbeat. His contract comes off the books by the time we have to give McDavid his second contract. It works out.

  87. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    If the season had continued e.g. if the Bruins had made the playoffs, Chara would have missed another 4 weeks because of another leg injury suffered blocking a shot.

    Shot block injuries can happen any time, but the point here is that he suffered two 4+ week lower body injuries in a career that has been almost injury free til now, and at a point when careers do tend to end because of a plethora of injuries, large and small.

    Lidstrom was 190ish lbs and not physical at all.

    The wear and tear of 255 lbs and a physical style of play the on legs is “somewhat” greater than those of 195 lbs.

    I do not know, but I am quite certain that we’ve seen Chara’s ‘age cliff’. As I said, I’ll be very impressed if he can beat that 40ish games number – at least playing mostly healthy, anyway.

    Which circles back to the original point, which is that anyone acquiring Chara now needs to account not only for the $6.9M, but the very real possibility (I would call it high probability) that only a fraction, less than half I would guess, of the 240+ regular season games left on his contract will actually be played.

  88. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Showerhead,

    I didn’t say 40 was the high water mark. I said it was a good over/under point.

    Lidstrom played a smart, effective and efficient game, avoiding contact when he could to play the puck instead. I don’t see the comparison at all.

    I think that when the cliff comes, it will come fast and hard for the 255 lb defender who has logged huge minutes.

  89. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Showerhead:
    I think there are lot of things about Chara that are ideal.

    1) Can do the job that will be asked of him.
    2) It’s not my money.
    3) As an elite player, is a good bet not to fall off the cliff before his 3 years are up.
    4) Would (likely) come with a (relatively) low acquisition cost. We’re not talking about multiple first rounders here.
    5) Contract expires when McDavid gets paid.

    He’s the one I hope shakes loose because:

    1) Hamilton, if that’s even possible, would come with a very dear acquisition cost.
    2) UFAs tend to get too much term, whereas Chara comes off the books at an ideal time.

    All I know is if you put him on with Connor he’ll have a good D to get him the puck and nobody will be taking liberties. It would give him a very nice safe introduction to the NHL.

    EDIT: and the teh idea of getting a UFA type player at a reasonable salary for three years is a lot better than the alternative.

  90. Showerhead says:

    G Money,

    Fair enough. I think we understand each other so all we can do is wait and see.

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Ah, I see. Sorry, the first sentence of my last post didn’t represent you correctly (but I’m still betting the over!)

  91. Adam Wu says:

    grim.oil:
    We don’t need someone to mentor our young D. We need D that are ready to win now. The time for mentor ship is over. That’s why Ference was brought here. I vote “No” for acquiring Chara. Not like my vote counts but he is on the downside of his career and he just spent the last while mentoring our next D man, Dougie. If we are bringing in another mentor than this rebuild is stalled to the point where Hall and Eberle are UFA. The time is now. I know its hard to see through all the smog of losing we have been dealt but some of these young studs are not young anymore. I also vote “no” to trading Marincin. I feel he has far more value on the ice than on the trade block. He is after all our 2nd best D as of right now. Please don’t Petry him.

    Mentorship and winning go hand in hand. To have the credibility to mentor, you have to be able to perform well enough to win.

    Bringing in Ference to mentor was a mistake not because bringing in a veteran to mentor the young D was a mistake, but because Ference was not capable of effective mentorship because he couldn’t perform.

    The mentor-mentee relationship is founded on mutual respect. The great failing of the old regime is the constant stream of bringing in old veterans to “mentor” the young core(s) who could no longer establish that respect, as far back at least to when they brought back Glen Anderson to “mentor” Arnott et al.

    The only exception is if mentor and mentee had a previously established relationship wherein trust and respect had already been established. Otherwise the veteran is still the new guy in the room, and he needs to win respect. To do that you have to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.

    On the other hand, get a good player who can perform and who is a human being of average decency (so no psychopathic cancers in the room!) and the mentorship will happen organically and automatically.

    Frankly, RNH, Ebs, and Hall already have enough experience to mentor the likes of McDavid on at least some things, though not everything you’d ideally want to have the saviour mentored in.

  92. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Showerhead,

    I might take the over as well, but most importantly – what does Chelli take?

  93. Adam Wu says:

    In fact, RNH, by reports, is so level headed and mature that I’m almost certain that he would have no trouble serving as a role model/mentor for younger star C like McDavid….

  94. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    As noted earlier, when I looked at aging curves for defensemen, I was surprised at how gradual the dropoff was. If Chara can stay healthy, I think he will remain an effective top 4 defender right to the end of his contract.

    What I did find is that what falls off a cliff is not the effectiveness of the player, but the number of players still playing.

    I just don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Chara to stay healthy, especially given he’s playing without having his PCL repaired (as I read it, the reports are that it is and will be left torn, and he’ll wear a brace to compensate).

    Pronger was an absolute horse up until his third last season, playing 72+ games in 11 of his previous 16 seasons. Then he played 50. Then he played 13. Then he was done.

    It’s just a single example, but Pronger I think (style of play) is a better analogue than Lidstrom.

    Once things go for these big physical guys, they tend to go fast.

  95. Pouzar says:

    Can I get some action on that 40 gm played for Chara?
    Over please. 🙂

  96. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    I like the idea of capable pairings with a mentor, and pairing D with forwards. McD will see good QoC likely, so more even defense deployment like McL does makes sense to me.

    If they acquired Chara, and I want him with McD I’d use him more second pairing and also to keep him fresh.

    Klef Michalek
    Chara Schultz
    Nurse Fayne

    By the end of the season I would say this group is far better than before. Chara babysits McD and Schultz who gets less TOI.

  97. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    If you look at the Oilers drafting 2008-2014 there’s a lot of size that simply could not play (Hesketh, Abney, Moroz, Khaira) with skill.

    One of those guys put up 35 goals and 63 points in 70 games in junior.Then 19 in 21 games to win the Mem Cup.

    He played top line minutes and did just fine playing with skill.

    In the year he was drafted, Mitch Moroz:

    *scored at a .378 point-per-game clip in the HL
    *played a shut down role on his CHL team

    On his draft day, he had not played with skill. MANY junior players move up the depth chart as they turn 18 and 19 and that was the case with Moroz. I’m not saying he’s a bad prospect but am saying the Oilers under Tambellini probably projected him onto a skill line (because of the draft number) and that was a mistake.

  98. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Chris:
    She certainly seems to be enjoying herself!

    Yeah, and the two girls in livid green don’t seem to be enjoying themselves, the one on the left might even be headed for therapy someday. She’s every girl who ever lived who had no boobs by age fourteen—and then there she is, still not with the boobs she truly deserves, standing right beside Eta Carinae hinting in the high ultraviolet at the gathering rapture, and if you inspected the athletic grounds closely the next day you’d see that envy left a chalk outline of a thin human figure that stretches out 150 feet long.

  99. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar,

    Shouldn’t you be outside, tending to your lawn?

  100. Pouzar says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Pouzar,

    Shouldn’t you be outside, tending to your lawn?

    I am mutli-tasking.

    *psssshhhtttt*

    ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

  101. Rational Zealot says:

    The opportunity cost on $7 million dollars of cap space is quite large. It doesn’t matter whether Chara would be a top four defenseman on Edmonton. That’s not the comparison. The comparison is vs. what you can get on the free agent/trade market for $7 M + assets necessary to acquire Chara.

    Would you rather have Chara or Sekera?
    Chara or Phaneuf?

    Those are the direct comparables.

  102. Younger Oil says:

    This is kind of a dumb theoretical question, but it’s been weighing on my mind a bit. Let’s say the Oilers had the 2nd OV pick, and Arizona wanted to trade up to get Eichel. Complete this equation:

    #3 + OEL = #2 + ???

    What would ??? have to be to get the deal done? Schultz? Marincin? Yakupov? #16? #33?

  103. godot10 says:

    1) Chara’s old body has not experienced a Western Canadian travel schedule.
    2) Boston highly structured defensive system with competent experienced players and Chara were mutually beneficial. The Oilers are not going to play a highly structured defensive system, nor are the players highly experienced.
    3) Chara has weaknesses that were less exposed in the Eastern Conference, that will be more exposed on a weaker team in the Western Conference playing a style less able to compensate for those weaknesses.
    4) Hope is not a good strategy. i.e. Hoping that the decline will not happen.

    There are worse options (i.e. Franson). There are much better options. Offer-sheeting Hamilton. Paul Martin.

    Chara would be my plan C or plan D.

    Plan A. Extend Klefbom (8 x $4million), and offersheet Hamilton (5 x $7.3 million).

  104. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Younger Oil,

    I think Eichel has more value than that.

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10,

    Wasn’t Chara better than Martin this past year though? So if you have all those criticisms of Chara because he plays in the East, why not the same for Martin, who is no spring chicken himself?

    Also Chara is only 3 years, I’m sure Martin will be looking for more like 5.

  106. oilswell says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: Yeah, and the two girls in livid green don’t seem to be enjoying themselves, the one on the left might even be headed for therapy someday.She’s every girl who ever lived who had no boobs by age fourteen—and then there she is, still not with the boobs she truly deserves, standing right beside Eta Carinae hinting in the high ultraviolet at the gathering rapture, and if you inspected the athletic grounds closely the next day you’d see that envy left a chalk outline of a thin human figure that stretches out 150 feet long.

    Wow, didn’t expect to see one of my fave celestial objects used so brilliantly here.

    Massive props.

  107. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money:
    Adam Wu,

    As noted earlier, when I looked at aging curves for defensemen, I was surprised at how gradual the dropoff was.If Chara can stay healthy, I think he will remain an effective top 4 defender right to the end of his contract.

    What I did find is that what falls off a cliff is not the effectiveness of the player, but the number of players still playing.

    I just don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Chara to stay healthy, especially given he’s playing without having his PCL repaired (as I read it, the reports are that it is and will be left torn, and he’ll wear a brace to compensate).

    Pronger was an absolute horse up until his third last season, playing 72+ games in 11 of his previous 16 seasons.Then he played 50.Then he played 13.Then he was done.

    It’s just a single example, but Pronger I think (style of play) is a better analogue than Lidstrom.

    Once things go for these big physical guys, they tend to go fast.

    But the 13 and 0 were due to a freak accident when Grabovski hit him in the eye. That doesn’t have a whole heck of a lot to do with age.

  108. Kitchener says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Fair enough. I haven’t really thought through Phaneuf vs Chara; my point was that neither is a good fit for the Oilers.

    This is a fun thread. Chara as an Oiler basically makes us react like this: http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/snu_snu.gif

    Chara is a real piss cutter – one of my favourite D. The best case scenario with him as an Oiler is really really great. Unfortunately, the downside is really expensive with huge opportunity cost in terms of cap space and the McELC. Chara would be a significant gamble in a sport where betting on 38-40 yearolds rarely works out.

  109. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar: *psssshhhtttt*
    ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

    Does Ft Gary ale kill weeds too?

  110. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    So was the concussion. So was Chara’s boot. The main point I’m trying to make is that those sorts of injuries didn’t happen to either of these guys when they were younger. They start to happen – especially to the physical guys, who are in the middle of melees – as the reflexes slow ever so slightly, the body isn’t quite so agile, and the nick and bruises start to not go away.

    Both Chara and Pronger were hyper-elite, but the miles were starting to show on them even before the injuries happened.

    I don’t think that will improve (notwithstanding Godot’s points about the travel and the pounding in the West being at all conducive to any sort of revitalization).

  111. Pajamah says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    I’d agree.

    #3, OEL + a pick/prospect gets you in Eichel territory.

    I know the combine isn’t as valuable in hockey as it is football, but still important to see where Eichel lines up with his peers. Since 2003, McDavid is the best prospect, Eichel might very well be second. There is a clear top 2, top 5, top 10 this year. Eichel is absolutely generational, and that’s praise not really mentioned since Tavares, and there’s a coin flips chance that Eichel surpasses Tavares. At best it’s #3 and OEL for #2.

  112. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    Fair enough, and I certainly agree that as players age the likelyhood of injury increases, I’m just not sold that Pronger is a good example. Regardless your point stands.

    Kitchener,

    Totally understand. Full disclosure, I have a totally irrational anti-Phaneuf bias because he lost it on a friend of mine at a bar once for not knowing who he was. Actually so did Dion’s mother. Fun story.

    Anyway, neither is ideal. I personally don’t mind the Chara risk, because I see plenty of advantages, but that’s only because I’m not sure I see any other options I like better that I think could realistically happen.

  113. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: he lost it on a friend of mine at a bar once for not knowing who he was. Actually so did Dion’s mother. Fun story.

    Oh please. Do tell the rest. Before I start putting together reasons why Dion goes to the bar with his Mom.

  114. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    godot10,

    Wasn’t Chara better than Martin this past year though?So if you have all those criticisms of Chara because he plays in the East, why not the same for Martin, who is no spring chicken himself?

    Also Chara is only 3 years, I’m sure Martin will be looking for more like 5.

    I would try to limit Martin to 3 years @ $5.5-6 million. I think he will age better than Chara. I think he fits better. i.e. Martin fits Fayne better for tough minutes.

    The only option which I am 100% opposed to is Franson.

    All options have pros and cons. The offersheet to Hamilton is arguably clearly the best option.

  115. Truth says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Being that Phaneuf was originally from Edmonton and then did a stint in Red Deer, there surely are many of us here that have stories… There’s no way I would want him playing on my team, let’s put it that way.

  116. Truth says:

    Bottom line for Chara is that he is a stop gap that would hopefully teach the young guys a thing or two while the team tries not to get embarrassed for the next few years. I would take him for that purpose but would not sell the farm to get him.

    If a trade is out there to acquire a younger guy for similar money while taking a slight loss in immediate quality for positive potential, I would rather the Oilers spend the assets they were going to use to acquire Chara plus what it takes to get the younger player with potential. I know its a pipe dream, but the Oilers would be better off trying to get the “next” Chara.

  117. Mtl-oiler says:

    Has anyone actually watched Chara play recently?

    Being out here in the east I’ve seen enough of him playing against the Habs to say that he is not the same player he was 3 or 4 years ago.
    There’s no question he was an outstanding franchise defenseman for years but the key word is WAS. For me, and allot of the Mtl media at the time, his decline was clearly visible in 2014 playoff series against the Habs when the Canadiens were skating circles around him.

    Folks he is not getting older he is OLD. How many elite 38 year old defensemen are there in the NHL?

    For an idea on how drastic the decline in performance for players over 37 take a look at this.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

    Chara is not the answer to the Oilers defense problems. He’s a very expensive and poor bet. IMO

  118. admiralmark says:

    There seems to be a lot of focusing on wether or not Chara’s 3 year contract would be worth it. When the real key problem with Chara is what’s it gonna cost in terms of assets to get him? I think we can all agree that best case scenario is he would spend 1 year as a 1st pair D, the 2nd year in a 2nd pairing role, and final year as a 3rd pairing. If this were the case and he cost Marincin and #33 then you do it. But he’s going to cost plenty more then that. People are thinking in terms of what might be a fair trade. When in reality it’s “what will the highest bidder pay” knowing Chara is available. Edmonton matching would be selling a huge part of the future for a player that likely wont even be around for a Cup run. I think it’s a pass.

  119. Showerhead says:

    G Money:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    So was the concussion.So was Chara’s boot.The main point I’m trying to make is that those sorts of injuries didn’t happen to either of these guys when they were younger.They start to happen – especially to the physical guys, who are in the middle of melees – as the reflexes slow ever so slightly, the body isn’t quite so agile, and the nick and bruises start to not go away.

    There is something about the reasoning here that I just can’t accept as fact.

    What has happened, as far as I see it, is that you’ve found examples of players being forced to play less games as they age and then rationalized a cause for it after the fact. There isn’t anything empirical about “reflexes slow, body isn’t agile, therefore injuries begin” – it’s just a statement you’ve made to explain the phenomena you’ve observed.

    There are tons of players, very physical players even, whose career arcs you can cherry pick to make the opposite argument. Smyth’s final years, as an example I’ve already mentioned. Holmstrom finishing at ages 36, 37, and 38 with 68, 73, and 74 games played. These guys whose bodies had more miles on them than anyone still finished strong. The PCL injury, I’ll give as a potential wear-and-tear injury, but the broken foot or Pronger’s eye – this sort of stuff you can’t just wave the age wand at and forget about. When Bryan Berard had his eye injury, he was only 23 – prime reflex age by anyone’s standards (and, if we’re looking for objective analysis, most studies claim reflexes don’t dive until your 50’s.)

    Age is certainly a factor. But Chara is a tough-competition, tough-zone start player with a nice blue bubble with almost no injury history. The PCL tear is a real and legitimate issue but it’s not fair to say just because Chara is 38 he is more likely to disappear by freak accident just because Chris Pronger did.

  120. spoiler says:

    Coyotes have filed a restraining order today against City of Glendale’s action to terminate the lease agreement.

    This is a lease… surely there is some sort of out-clause? including length of notice? Would Bettman et alii have signed a lease where they aren’t afforded enough time upon termination to re-arrange their affairs?

  121. Showerhead says:

    Truth:
    Bottom line for Chara is that he is a stop gap that would hopefully teach the young guys a thing or two while the team tries not to get embarrassed for the next few years. I would take him for that purpose but would not sell the farm to get him.

    If a trade is out there to acquire a younger guy for similar money while taking a slight loss in immediate quality for positive potential, I would rather the Oilers spend the assets they were going to use to acquire Chara plus what it takes to get the younger player with potential.I know its a pipe dream, but the Oilers would be better off trying to get the “next” Chara.

    I agree with every word.

  122. spoiler says:

    Showerhead,

    Chelios would be the poster boy for this argument, methinks.

    It is very difficult to apply the general to the specific when it comes to aging and injuries is my opinion.

    Thus far Chara has shown he’s a good bet. The farther forward you have to project the riskier the bet becomes. A couple of years isn’t too bad. If there was any hope of Boston trading Chara to Chia I would make that bet. But it would pretty much take Chara making the decision for Neely (which is possible).

  123. Showerhead says:

    For me, as much as I’ve argued for Chara in this thread, there are some really important considerations for him and all of Edmonton’s “screaming targets.”

    1) Is this player who we think he is?
    -In Chara’s case, I’ve made my point that I believe he is still a top-pairing shutdown D.
    -In Hamilton’s, I believe what he’s accomplished at his age gives a high probability that he becomes the player people are hoping for.

    2) Is this player worth the acquisition cost?
    -In Chara’s case, I believe that the acquisition cost won’t be prohibitive. I could be wrong, but there is an advantage here.
    -In Hamilton’s case, the picks required for the compensation package are going to represent serious value.

    3) Is the player’s contract a good fit?
    -In Chara’s case, I think the contract is perfect. This is because a) I think he’s the real deal and b) because it ends at the same time as McDavid’s ELC.
    -In Hamilton’s case, we don’t know what that contract would be. If the number ends up being $7M and Hamilton becomes the player we hope, then it looks fair to me. We don’t know the $ or the term or the fulfilfment of potential.

    And then, as a footnote: how realistic is it all anyway?
    -Chara: I could realistically see him being traded.
    -Hamilton: I sincerely think any offer sheet gets matched.

    That is the reasoning and those are the assumptions I’m working with. I have my opinions and have made my arguments and all I can do is explain why I think the way I do.

  124. Showerhead says:

    spoiler:
    Showerhead,

    It is very difficult to apply the general to the specific when it comes to aging and injuries is my opinion.

    I think there is a ton of wisdom in this statement.

  125. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    I was using Pronger as a counterexample to the earlier examples of Smyth and Lidstrom. IMO, Lidstrom has zero comparables to Chara based on style of play, and Smyth of course is a forward.

    Most of my opinion stems from the work I did studying the aging curve of defensemen.

    That makes me of the steadfast opinion that we’ve seen Chara hit the age wall (MTL-OILER’s post confirms what I’ve certainly seen by eye), and the injuries are, if not the consequence, then certainly a co-morbidity.

    Therefore I think Chara is a really bad bet for the Oilers to make.

    Whether Chara becomes an Oiler or not, we’ll know for sure next year. I think BO’s categorizing my 40-game expectation as an over-under is pretty reasonable. If I were to bet (which I won’t as betting on the health of a defenseman and finding myself cheering for someone to get hurt as a result is something I just won’t do), I would take the under.

    I can say this for sure: regardless of what you or I think, I’m a lot more confident that Chara won’t be foisted off on Chia Pete as compared to MacT.

  126. Dashingsilverfox says:

    spoiler:
    Coyotes have filed a restraining order today against City of Glendale’s action to terminate the lease agreement.

    This is a lease… surely there is some sort of out-clause?including length of notice?Would Bettman et alii have signed a lease where they aren’t afforded enough time upon termination to re-arrange their affairs?

    It’s not actually a lease…it’s a management agreement that covers all aspects of the arena operations including booking concerts etc.

    The City of Glendale alleges that the agreement is null and void since the former City Attorney who they claim assisted in drafting the agreement was hired as in house counsel but the Coyotes while he was still received severance from the city.

    At the crux of the issue is whether or not the attorney, Craig Tindall, actually actively helped draw up the agreement since he left the city’s employ a couple of months before the final agreement was signed.

    Glendale is arguing that the agreement was largely based on a former draft agreement that Tindall had drawn up for the unsuccessful bid by Jamieson to buy the team several months earlier.

    Most observers think the City’s case is pretty sketchy and that’s why the Coyotes have launched a suit seeking $200 million in damages.

    You could see a situation where the Coyotes move to another arena (perhaps U.S Airways Centre in downtown Phoenix and be successful in their suit against the City and walk away with $200 million although I would imagine that suit would take considerable time to wind its way through the court system.

  127. maudite says:

    No to anything involving shipping Marincin out for stop gap. Part of a package for something tangible, sure. Stopgap, no thanks.

    Sign Marty cheap and long now. Both he and Lander were good bets on long term deals. 5×2+ style.

    Worst case Marty is a 4-6 Dman, worst case Lander is a 3-4th line center/winger.

    They keep failing on homegrown defenceman contract wise. Keep stretching them along and then running out of tread early, requiring full payment and subsequently shipping them off. You look at the value defense contracts and they come into play at a point where Klefbom is close to and Marty is at right now. Lock those up on the cheap while you can and laugh as you get them to 30ish on value deals.

    Klef XXX
    Marincin Fayne
    Nurse XXX

    I think Martin and Sekera are the kind of bets I would rather make. Or maybe Phaneuf if you can get him in a deal that has TO eating some salary (like 2-3 million off). Put Dion with Nurse and feed him solid PP minutes and easy ZS, bury Marincin/Fayne in dzone. You get Dion’s numbers up and people start talking about him again. You sell Dion at some point while he’s still shiney.

  128. Showerhead says:

    G Money:
    Showerhead,

    I was using Pronger as a counterexample to the earlier examples of Smyth and Lidstrom.IMO, Lidstrom has zero comparables to Chara based on style of play, and Smyth of course is a forward.

    Most of my opinion stems from the work I did studying the aging curve of defensemen.

    That makes me of the steadfast opinion that we’ve seen Chara hit the age wall (MTL-OILER’s post confirms what I’ve certainly seen by eye), and the injuries are, if not the consequence, then certainly a co-morbidity.

    The problem is that if you’re looking for physical, monstrously sized elite defensemen who played into their late thirties, your sample size essentially becomes Chris Pronger, no? Which runs me right into Spoiler’s statement re: general and specific.

  129. spoiler says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Thank you for that.

    That sounds like CoG is terminating based on the fact that they didn`t do their own due diligence. I can’t see the courts supporting that action. Also, this is a little late in the game to make the case for “null and void”, isn’t it?

  130. spoiler says:

    Showerhead,

    These names might help a bit: Willie Mitchell, Hal Gill, Andy Sutton, Rob Blake.

    Edit: those names were off the top of my head. Have no idea what they show one way or the other.

  131. commonfan14 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: You could see a situation where the Coyotes move to another arena (perhaps U.S Airways Centre in downtown Phoenix and be successful in their suit against the City and walk away with $200 million although I would imagine that suit would take considerable time to wind its way through the court system.

    Hard to imagine any sports team would actually follow through with taking that much cash in a lawsuit against a city (and really, a group of taxpayers) that supported it for years.

    Everything’s on the table with this nutty situation, obviously, but it would still be surprising.

    Good theatre to be sure.

  132. Chris says:

    Showerhead,

    My concern obviously is that an older player with multiple knee injuries has the prospect to have rapidly diminishing performances. He’s also under contract for 7 mill for three years. Do you want the highest paid and key defensive acquisition for the team to have huge flags regarding age and injury flying over him? Personally because of the odometer and mounting injury problems see it as a very high risk acquisition. We’d all like to add the Chara of five years ago to the team but that player is not available.

  133. Captain Smarmy says:

    commonfan14: Hard to imagine any sports team would actually follow through with taking that much cash in a lawsuit against a city (and really, a group of taxpayers) that supported it for years.

    Everything’s on the table with this nutty situation, obviously, but it would still be surprising.

    Good theatre to be sure.

    Sports teams take 100s of millions of dollars from cities all the time. See Phoenix and Edmonton…

  134. Klima's_Bucket says:

    If Tampa wins the cup I think they could shed some cash from their blue line so that they can afford to re-sign Stamkos and Hedman in the next two years.
    Perhaps the Oilers could swoop in and grab Garrison, Coburn, Carle or Stralman…

  135. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    Hmm, by that measure, Zdeno Chara is your sample size and only his performance next year will allow you to make a reasonable estimate as to what his performance next year will be.

    No thanks. I’ll take the broader sample set, not to mention Chara’s own performance arc. I’d say he’s hit the age wall, and next year will be a bad year for him, performance and injury wise.

    And therefore a really bad bet for the Oilers, who need not just a top pairing defenseman but a durable top pairing defenseman.

  136. commonfan14 says:

    Captain Smarmy: Sports teams take 100s of millions of dollars from cities all the time. See Phoenix and Edmonton…

    Not in a punitive manner though.

    I wonder if Bettman and the other owners would ultimately step in before it got to that point though. It’s definitely not a good look for the league.

  137. rickithebear says:

    Hamilton versus Pacific.
    LAK 2gm -2
    SJS 2gm -3
    ANA 1gm E
    VCR 2gm -2
    20 games against this group would be -20.

    ARZ 2gm +2
    CGY 2gm +1

    I am not so confident in MR hamilton

  138. Numenius says:

    Chris: He’s also under contract for 7 mill for three years.

    Turns out he’s under contract for 7M for 2 years and then 4M for the last year.

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/BOS.html

    That makes a big difference to me. I’d consider retaining his service on that contract if the acquisition costs aren’t too high.

  139. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    That’s a tiny sample set Ricki. Those minuses mean nothing (as in general, +- means absolutely nothing until you get to sample sizes of one or more full seasons).

    BUT! This would be a perfect time for you to go in and look at every goal scored while Hamilton was on the ice and actually demonstrate whether or not Hamilton was the guy directly, indirectly, or completely not responsible for each or any of those minuses.

    Make your case about MR Hamilton.

    You could as a bonus also try to demonstrate how EVGA works well as a measure, plus also demonstrate your concepts of box protection (or not).

    As I mentioned before, if you do that work, I will even help you refine it, write it up, and present it in a readable manner.

    But until you actually put in some spreadsheet elbow grease to back up what you’re saying, your assertions are marketing assertions, not assertions supported by data.

  140. G Money says:

    Numenius,

    Given that Katz’s pockets are probably unlimited, I’d guess the actual dollars don’t actually matter much. It’s the cap that is the commodity in restricted supply, and the cap hit for Chara is $6.9M each season.

  141. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money:
    Random thoughts:

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2015/06/11/chinas-hockey-voice-living-stanley-cup-dream-arthur.html

    What an enjoyable story this is.

    That is so Awesome. Imagine a billion Chinese hockey fans – all sporting Oiler jerseys :-).

    Oilers PR department. Start your outreach now!

  142. gd says:

    If Boston decides to trade Chara, I think the cost for Chara will be the 33rd and either Davidson or Khaira. (We don’t trade Marancin, because one of the benefits of Chara will be him mentoring and inspiring MM). I can’t think of any team that would want Chara, can afford him, get him to waive his no-trade clause that would be able to top that offer. (maybe Columbus would trade either Jack Johnson or Tyutin) If someone has another team that would top that offer, I have yet to see it.

  143. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Numenius,

    Given that Katz’s pockets are probably unlimited, I’d guess the actual dollars don’t actually matter much. It’s the cap that is the commodity in restricted supply, and the cap hit for Chara is $6.9M each season.

    The cap hit is actually only $4M in his last season.

  144. Chris says:

    Numenius: Turns out he’s under contract for 7M for 2 years and then 4M for the last year.

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/BOS.html

    That makes a big difference to me. I’d consider retaining his service on that contract if the acquisition costs aren’t too high.

    I don’t care about the actual money just the cap hit which I understand to be 6.9. Even if it is only four for the last year somehow (which strikes me as unlikely as cap hits are averages) the prospect of diminishing results, the opportunity cost in cap space and the acquisition cost being not insignificant make this a bad bet to me.

  145. spoiler says:

    From Sportsnet at the time:

    Under the league’s new “Kovalchuk” rule, Chara’s new contract will be cut off (for the purposes of salary-cap calculation) in the year of the contract in which he turns 41. That means Chara, who will turn 41 on Mar. 18, 2018, will have an annual salary cap hit of $6.9 million for the first six years of the deal — $400,000 more than what would be if it were calculated over the seven years of the contract. The cap hit then drops to his actual salary ($4 million) in the final year.

    Source: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/bruins-chara-extension/

    So his present AAV is actually higher right now than it would be because they can’t count that dive year at the end of the contract. That year reverts to an AAV of whatever the salary is… in his case $4M.

  146. godot10 says:

    Showerhead:
    For me, as much as I’ve argued for Chara in this thread, there are some really important considerations for him and all of Edmonton’s “screaming targets.”

    1) Is this player who we think he is?
    -In Chara’s case, I’ve made my point that I believe he is still a top-pairing shutdown D.
    -In Hamilton’s, I believe what he’s accomplished at his age gives a high probability that he becomes the player people are hoping for.

    2) Is this player worth the acquisition cost?
    -In Chara’s case, I believe that the acquisition cost won’t be prohibitive. I could be wrong, but there is an advantage here.
    -In Hamilton’s case, the picks required for the compensation package are going to represent serious value.

    3) Is the player’s contract a good fit?
    -In Chara’s case, I think the contract is perfect. This is because a) I think he’s the real deal and b) because it ends at the same time as McDavid’s ELC.
    -In Hamilton’s case, we don’t know what that contract would be. If the number ends up being $7M and Hamilton becomes the player we hope, then it looks fair to me. We don’t know the $ or the term or the fulfilfment of potential.

    And then, as a footnote: how realistic is it all anyway?
    -Chara: I could realistically see him being traded.
    -Hamilton: I sincerely think any offer sheet gets matched.

    That is the reasoning and those are the assumptions I’m working with. I have my opinions and have made my arguments and all I can do is explain why I think the way I do.

    1) I have my doubts that Chara is a shutdown defensemen anymore on a team that is NOT like Boston, with an mutually beneficial highly structured defense first system. Chara is already extremely vulnerable to agile speedy forwards.

    2) Chara’s salary is $6.9 million for two, then $4 million. Acquisition cost likely, #33 and a prospect. Dougie Hamilton’s salary is 5 x $7.3 with an acquisition cost of a #1, a #2, and a #3 next year. Salary and acquisition cost are similar.

    3) Hamilton is a perfect fit for the Oiler’s age group, and he will be improving into McDavid’s max value year, the 3rd year of the entry level, while Chara will be declining into that critical year.

    4) Hamilton’s skillset is a great match for Klefbom and vice versa. Nurse and Fayne similarly. i.e. one is set up for 3 years of stability to grow to the max value of McDavid in year 3, with Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins still on their value deals.

    Hamilton as an option is a no-brainer over almost every other option. Boston is likely to match though.

  147. admiralmark says:

    gd:
    If Boston decides to trade Chara, I think the cost for Chara will be the 33rd and either Davidson or Khaira. (We don’t trade Marancin, because one of the benefits of Chara will be him mentoring and inspiring MM). I can’t think of any team that would want Chara, can afford him, get him to waive his no-trade clause that would be able to top that offer. (maybe Columbus would trade either Jack Johnson or Tyutin) If someone has another team that would top that offer, I have yet to see it.

    I think you are forgetting what GM’s will pay for a vet D man when they are on the cusp of a strong cup run. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Dallas… hell many teams would be interested and the bidding war would ensue. No way a 2nd round pick + Davidson or Khaira gets him. Gonna take way more even in his declining state.

  148. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    admiralmark,

    His large cap-hit in this financial climate, knocks off some value because so many teams just can’t look at him. I’m not saying it’s knocked down that much, but it has an effect.

  149. kinger_OIL says:

    Chara is not the type of player or contract that a bottom-dwelling team hoping to move up needs. You don’t boat anchor your cap for 3 years with a player that age Chara, if healthy, at this stage is good for a team at trade deadline that needs a solid D to take a deep run in the playoffs. A loser organization takes him as is today, and hopes for an over under of 40 games for the next 3 years…A loser organization pays up NN 4.5MM for two years,. A loser organziation takes a busted old D and gives him max term and NTC at 35. I’m hopeful that the Oil are no longer that loser organization…

  150. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    If Tampa wins the cup I think they could shed some cash from their blue line so that they can afford to re-sign Stamkos and Hedman in the next two years.
    Perhaps the Oilers could swoop in and grab Garrison, Coburn, Carle or Stralman…

    Coburn ($4.5M) and Mattias Ohlund ($4M LTIR) come off their cap in 2016/17 when Stamkos needs a new deal.

    They already have Nesterov on the playoff roster on an ELC and I would imagine highly rated Anthony DeAngelo should be ready by then and also on an ELC.

    I don’t think they’ll have to move any of their D before then.

  151. Dashingsilverfox says:

    gd:
    If Boston decides to trade Chara, I think the cost for Chara will be the 33rd and either Davidson or Khaira. (We don’t trade Marancin, because one of the benefits of Chara will be him mentoring and inspiring MM). I can’t think of any team that would want Chara, can afford him, get him to waive his no-trade clause that would be able to top that offer. (maybe Columbus would trade either Jack Johnson or Tyutin) If someone has another team that would top that offer, I have yet to see it.

    Dallas or Anaheim could easily top that offer since both have a ton of cap space and are loaded with prospects.

  152. Really? says:

    The Oilers, as a franchise, have been losers for so long that this has affected the analytical ability of management and their fan base. For years, out of sheer desperation to turn things north, management and fans have been “whale-Hunting”. It has become a shared belief that the “whale” will act as a panacea and give them a “one-shot” quick fix to all that ails the franchise. Well none of Vanek, Hossa, Heatly, Clarkson, Hamilton or Chara would help this franchise enough to save itself from itself.

    This Spring the Oilers fans have been given a glorious gift from the repentant hockey Gords. His name is McDavid. Now everyone is getting all soft and gooey at the thought of Hamilton or Chara or some other saviour immediately converting the Oilers from a doormat to a contender.

    Give your collective heads a shake. Patience is STILL required. We still need to draft wisely and develop our prospects if we expect to create a long term cup contender and that is the long term objective is it not?

    If we can not display some patience, we will be just like Leaf fans.

  153. Numenius says:

    spoiler:
    From Sportsnet at the time:

    Under the league’s new “Kovalchuk” rule, Chara’s new contract will be cut off (for the purposes of salary-cap calculation) in the year of the contract in which he turns 41. That means Chara, who will turn 41 on Mar. 18, 2018, will have an annual salary cap hit of $6.9 million for the first six years of the deal — $400,000 more than what would be if it were calculated over the seven years of the contract. The cap hit then drops to his actual salary ($4 million) in the final year.

    Source: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/bruins-chara-extension/

    So his present AAV is actually higher right now than it would be because they can’t count that dive year at the end of the contract. That year reverts to an AAV of whatever the salary is… in his case $4M.

    Yes, thanks for clarifying.

    It’s not just salary, it’s the actually AAV (cap hit) that goes down to 4M in the last year.

    2015-16 AAV 6.9M
    2016-17 AAV 6.9M
    2017-18 AAV 4M

    Makes a difference, I’d say.

    Nice that Chiarelli understands this perfectly well because he was the one who negotiated the contract in the first place.

  154. speeds says:

    Really?:
    The Oilers, as a franchise, have been losers for so long that this has affected the analytical ability of management and their fan base. For years, out of sheer desperation to turn things north, management and fans have been “whale-Hunting”. It has become a shared belief that the “whale” will act as a panacea and give them a “one-shot” quick fix to all that ails the franchise. Well none of Vanek, Hossa, Heatly, Clarkson, Hamilton or Chara would help this franchise enough to save itself from itself.

    This Spring the Oilers fans have been given a glorious gift from the repentant hockey Gords. His name is McDavid. Now everyone is getting all soft and gooey at the thought of Hamilton or Chara or some other saviour immediately converting the Oilers from a doormat to a contender.

    Give your collective heads a shake. Patience is STILL required. We still need to draft wisely and develop our prospects if we expect to create a long term cup contender and that is the long term objective is it not?

    If we can not display some patience, we will be just like Leaf fans.

    Hamilton is different from most other “whale hunting” – he hits perfectly by age and need, and could be a long term fit.

    I can see why some might like Chara as an addition, but he’s a different addition from Hamilton. When Chara’s deal is over, he’s, what, 41? In 3 years, Hamilton is likely entering or in his prime.

  155. Really? says:

    I agree wholeheartedly that Hamilton could fulfill many of the Oilers requirements, however, the whale part of the equation is the long term cost to the Oilers. The Oilers would most probably have to relinquish an unreal amount in terms of picks, prospects or players and cap space to bring him on board. This could very easily throw the salary balance out of whack for the entire team. Given the need to address McDavid’s next contract, would that be wise?

  156. speeds says:

    Really?,

    Depends what it would take to get him.

    IF BOS didn’t match at 7.3M per for 5 years, I think that would be a reasonable bet to make. Preferable, IMO, to 16OV + for Seabrook, along with at least a 6 year extension to Seabrook at the kind of money most think it would take.

  157. kooler says:

    Younger Oil,

    If you traded to 3rd…you could end up with two legit Dman, a couple prospects and a probably a couple picks and obliviously 3rd pick. Although nobody would ever trade a franchise player…. but if you pull 3 for 1’s you could pick up 7 players for Mcdavid. Back to reality.

  158. rickithebear says:

    Gmoney:

    The Narative is going from east to west is performance shit kicking.
    Hamilton’s small sample size suggest major sucking against the pacific.
    that follows the narrative.
    You are going to dump major assets for a perceived solution.
    That goes counter to current results.
    that shines a better light on our current young d.
    Cause of small sample size.

    try and gets 6.5M x 6 budget with that trended evidence.

    the words ‘YOU ARE FIRED” come to mind.

  159. oilswell says:

    Depends what it would take to get him.

    IF BOS didn’t match at 7.3M per for 5 years, I think that would be a reasonable bet to make.Preferable, IMO, to 16OV + for Seabrook, along with at least a 6 year extension to Seabrook at the kind of money most think it would take.

    That is a fair argument. Another way to think about it is time traveling the picks and imagining you purchased the ninth overall in 2011 with the 9th overall in 2016 and 18th overall in 2017 (let’s say) with the other picks the cost of time travel and additional certainty that the pick would turn out as good as Hamilton. D take some time and are risky high in the draft, perhaps time traveling a D pick to match the cluster could be considered a rational use of draft assets? Bunching up the assets for a run, GMs do that all the time by trading vets during rebuild and shedding good picks at the deadline during cup run mode.

    Coming back to Chara for a moment, if you could be sure he is a solid depth defender in the last year of McDavid’s ELC, would you pay a 2018 pick in the 33 range, say, for a cup run? Because if that’s not too far out of whack why not get him now for the 2015 33rd and have him solidify the D for a couple years too? Big issue is risk, Hamilton seems better.

    I don’t think oilers have much of a shot for either FWIW. The way Chara is being discussed here as a cap killing injury risk you’d think the Bruins would be jumping through hoops to dump his declining ass.

  160. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    1) Chara’s old body has not experienced a Western Canadian travel schedule.
    2) Boston highly structured defensive system with competent experienced players and Chara were mutually beneficial.The Oilers are not going to play a highly structured defensive system, nor are the players highly experienced.
    3) Chara has weaknesses that were less exposed in the Eastern Conference, that will be more exposed on a weaker team in the Western Conference playing a style less able to compensate for those weaknesses.
    4) Hope is not a good strategy.i.e. Hoping that the decline will not happen.

    There are worse options (i.e. Franson).There are much better options.Offer-sheeting Hamilton.Paul Martin.

    Chara would be my plan C or plan D.

    Plan A. Extend Klefbom (8 x $4million), and offersheet Hamilton (5 x $7.3 million).

    What’s your problem with Franson? Put him in Schultz’s role with lots of ozone starts and I think he rocks it. His offence is pretty good. I would take him at up to $4.5M as long as there is no restrictions beyond a limited NTC in the deal.

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