WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING

The anticipation of the 2015 draft is alive and well in Edmonton. It’s like the humidity during a hot August afternoon without a cloud to hide behind and one wonders if the Oilers can deliver anything close to expectations. Seriously. It’s important to remember that no matter what happens at the draft and in free agency, there are a lot of NHL teams poised to have better seasons than Edmonton in 2015-16.

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, JUNE 26

  1. Lots of excitement building throughout the day for Oilers fans and wall to wall discussion of Connor McDavid and every little thing about his past and future. We can expect Peter Chiarelli to march onto the podium with a cast of old plus new Oilers and announce Edmonton’s most brilliant No. 1 overall selection.
  2. The post selection conversation (should Sportsnet choose to do it) should revolve around rumors pertaining to the No. 16 overall. We should expect Peter Chiarelli to say nothing.
  3. No. 16 overall should be a tense, fascinating and exciting few minutes. I think Edmonton makes the pick but that depends on the feeding frenzy. We should expect the Russian Svechnikov, the fantastic Q blue Jeremy Roy or the brilliant Swiss sniper Meier. I don’t think the Oilers draft any of the two-way types (Harkins, Eriksson) this early and if there is a trade it has to be for a defender.

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS FOR SATURDAY MORNING, JUNE 27

  1. No. 33 overall. If the Oilers haven’t added a defenseman yet, they’ll use this pick for one. If they’ve added a defenseman on Saturday but no goalie, expect this trade to be dealt. I’ll guess they use this selection on a defenseman like Noah Juulsen, Jakub Zboril or Oliver Kylington.
  2. No. 57 overall. This could be anything but at this point we could see a goalie chosen and that my friends could be anyone. I’ll guess Daniel Vladar but it’s only because I like him so much.
  3. No. 79 & No. 86 overall. There’s going to be a lot of quality left on Edmonton’s list (the one described by Bob Green in the JG article I linked to this morning) of 50 best, suspect Ethan Bear and or Blake Speers will have fallen this far and they’ll be strong candidates for the Oilers by this time.

A lof of picks belong to Edmonton right now, doubt we see them use all the selections. The Oilers need to stock up though, that 2014 draft isn’t going to deliver much in the way of signable players (and none for next spring unless KevEN Bouchard channels his inner Daniel Bouchard).

ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN ON A DOUGIE HAMILTON OS

  • Friedman:“I think you kind of look at it this way – If you want to do it, you do it and then you figure it out later on. Don’t forget, Nurse and Draisaitl – those guys aren’t going to be in that situation for three years. You have time to do things if you want to do things. There’s no question about that. The way I kind of look at it is you have to take care of your own business first and you can sort out problems later if you want to sort them out later.” Source

Damn straight. Not a word out of place.

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118 Responses to "WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING"

  1. Rondo says:

    1. Connor McDavid
    2. Jack Eichel
    3. Dylan Strome
    4. Mitchell Marner
    5. Noah Hanifin
    6.Barzal
    7. Provorov
    8. Werenski
    9. Zacha
    10 Rantanen
    11 Crouse
    12.Kyle Connor
    13.Timo Meier
    14.Travis Konecny/ ColinWhite/Evgeny Svechnikov/Zboril/Merkley
    15.Travis Konecny /ColinWhite/Evgeny Svechnikov/Roy/Merkley
    16. Jakub Zboril/Svechnikov/Chabot/ White/Roy

    33. Roslovic , Senyshyn, Guryanov

    Juulsen, Dermott, Carlson,Larsson, Siegenthaler Carlo, Dunn, Meloche

    Samsonov

  2. sliderule says:

    If you want zboril you will have to take him at 16 as he will not be there at 33.

    Please no Roy at 16..An undersized slow skating defencemen is not what the doctor ordered for the oiler defence.

    If Vlader is there at 57 Chia will run to podium

  3. spoiler says:

    An informal poll for Lowetidians because I can’t make my own damn mind up…

    It’s a helluva great trilemma, but if Svechnikov, Roy and Meier are all available at 16, who would you take?

    A. Svechnikov
    B. Roy
    C. Meier
    D. None of the above

  4. SinceTheWHADays says:

    LT,
    Sometimes your posts are like Chinese food; I was hungry for it all day, I gobbled it down with enthusiasm as soon as it was ready to digest, now I’m hungry again.

  5. SinceTheWHADays says:

    spoiler,

    Svechnikov

  6. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Looks like coach Q was pretty revved up after that win last night:

    https://twitter.com/drinkdrankCubs/status/608835288945840128

    (shelter the young-uns ears before playing that clip)

  7. Rondo says:

    spoiler,

    Seems like there are a lot of D-men at or around #33, I wonder if there is much separation between Chabot Zboril and Roy in comparison to the D at #33. If not you take a forward at #16.

  8. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Catching up on last post, and I see more people coming around to the view that Eichel is the 2nd best prospect at the time of drafting since Crosby, not that it matters now. McDavid Wooot!

    But I think Eichel will be better than Tavares, and I’m also of the mind that Eichel is going to give McDavid a run for his money on the Calder. I think we’ll be comparing the two of them for the rest of their careers like Taylor/Tyler. It’s that close.

    Chara for a year or two would be nice, but I cannot see Neely and Sweeney doing Chiarelli any favours, meaning the cost to get him for the Oilers will be steep. Based on that, I don’t like it.

    As for Hamilton, he’d be a hell of a catch and I’m not worried about retaliation and consequences, but I am worried that those picks end up being very dear at this point. To me, if the Oilers were one more year in, had solved G and gotten a couple of veteran top 4D and were a playoff team or fringe playoff team, the move makes more sense as that could solidify the blue line for a half decade. But there’s still some risk doing this right now, especially as the team will need some blue chippers on entry level deals to fill in the gaps when some of the bigger ticket guys need to be moved (the way Chicago had guys like Saad and Shaw and Teravainen bubbling under to take over when the likes of Ladd had to be moved).

    Excited to see your top 120 tomorrow, LT.

  9. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    spoiler,

    Out of those guys, Svechnikov. I am not expecting him to be available at 16, though. I think he goes higher and an unexpected name will slide to that spot instead.

  10. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Chara for a year or two would be nice, but I cannot see Neely and Sweeney doing Chiarelli any favours, meaning the cost to get him for the Oilers will be steep. Based on that, I don’t like it.

    I’m of the same mind, and have been taking that stance against a Bruins trade all along, however…

    Chara pretty much controls his own destiny at this point. If Neely goes to him as says we want you to waive your no-trade, he can say, “Fine, but it’s NYR, TBL or EDM”. (as an example).

    I think the odds are slim anorexic, but given his relationship with Chia, it is possible.

  11. Younger Oil says:

    spoiler:
    An informal poll for Lowetidians because I can’t make my own damn mind up…

    It’s a helluva great trilemma, but if Svechnikov, Roy and Meier are all available at 16, who would you take?

    A. Svechnikov
    B. Roy
    C. Meier

    For my preferences, Meier>Svechnikov(>Merkeley)>Roy.

    I’m just not sold on Roy, only 5 goals is somewhat of a concern for me. There are tons of quality D slated to go in the 2nd and 3rd round (Andersson, Leveille, etc), and I’m honestly not convinced that Roy will be a better player than them. He’s #29 on BM’s list, so I really think it’s a stretch at #16.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Svechnikov, Meier, Roy. It should be told that I ALWAYS prefer a F so there’s that.

  13. speeds says:

    sliderule:
    If you want zboril you will have to take him at 16 as he will not be there at 33.

    If that’s who they want, would you risk trading down to 21-22 to add a 2nd?

  14. mujidog says:

    (1) Oilers pick McDavid. Duh.
    (2) Sabres pick Eichel. Duh.
    (3) Arizona picks… Mitch Marner. Welcome to the Glenda.. er Phoeni… um Vegas?
    (4) Leafs pick Hanifin. He and Morgan Rielly will look great in a few years.
    (5) Canes pick Dylan Strome. What happens to the Staals?

  15. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    speeds: If that’s who they want, would you risk trading down to 21-22 to add a 2nd?

    Yes! I’ve been banging the drum on 16 and 57 for 21 and 31.
    Gives the team 1, 21, 31, 33 in a draft with an amazing top 40.

  16. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Lowetide: Svechnikov

    Someone on another board suggested Terror-senko as a comparable for Svenchnikov – is that fair?

  17. gr8one says:

    If Kylington is there at 33…you send that fuzzy haired red headed kid up to the podium as fast as you can to yell out his name. If Kylington falls past 20…. I’m calling it right now, he will be the steal of the draft. I’d be great with him being our 16th pick.

  18. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Someone on another board suggested Terror-senko as a comparable for Svenchnikov – is that fair?

    I think that’s best case scenario. If Tarasenko were a reasonable comparable, he would be the consensus 3rd overall pick.

  19. Younger Oil says:

    A bit more on Roy’s lack of goal scoring, I just did it really quick so I might have missed one or two, but here are all the CHL Dmen chosen in the top 20 from 2008-2012 who had a similar/worse goals per game to Jeremy Roy:

    Erik Gudbranson
    Dylan McIlrath
    Duncan Siemens
    Colten Teubert
    Tyler Meyers
    Luca Sbisa

    A couple of good players in there, but not great comparables for what you want to get at #16 in a generational draft.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    A bit more on Roy’slack of goal scoring, I just did it really quick so I might have missed one or two, but here are all the CHL Dmen chosen in the top 20 from 2008-2012 who had a similar/worse goals per game to Jeremy Roy:

    Erik Gudbranson
    Dylan McIlrath
    Duncan Siemens
    Colten Teubert
    Tyler Meyers
    Luca Sbisa

    A couple of good players in there, but not great comparables for what you want to get at #16 in a generational draft.

    There’s a randomness to all of this. Roy had 14 goals same league, age 16.

  21. D says:

    LT,

    The rest of the Friedman article had an interesting counterbalance. “McDavid is going to be three years away. But McDavid is a guy that you do have to take care of. You do have to look at the situation and say, ‘When the time comes, we’ve got to be able to handle that contract.’ If you’re paying $7 million a year for Dougie Hamilton – and is he really a $7 million a year player? That will affect your ability to do other business.”

    That’s still the part that appeals to me personally. I feel that a Hamilton offer sheet is a misstep.

  22. Younger Oil says:

    Lowetide: There’s a randomness to all of this. Roy had 14 goals same league, age 16.

    I suppose so, though I hope it doesn’t indicate that he has a tough time getting more shots on net when he faces a greater quality of competition. Too bad we still don’t have more extensive advanced stats for the CHL, that would be a huge help in evaluating the players as an armchair scout!

  23. Snowman says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I don’t think even if Svechnikov was comparable to Tarasenko he’d be guaranteed 3rd overall. You’ve got a Patrick Kane comparable and a Drew Doughty comparable in there too.. Crazy draft.

  24. Snowman says:

    D:
    LT,

    The rest of the Friedman article had an interesting counterbalance.“McDavid is going to be three years away. But McDavid is a guy that you do have to take care of. You do have to look at the situation and say, ‘When the time comes, we’ve got to be able to handle that contract.’If you’re paying $7 million a year for Dougie Hamilton – and is he really a $7 million a year player? That will affect your ability to do other business.”

    That’s still the part that appeals to me personally.I feel that a Hamilton offer sheet is a misstep.

    If you offer sheet Hamilton and you get him for $7M. It’d be easy enough to offload Eberle to pay for it when the time comes to pay McDavid. I’m not saying you should offer sheet anybody but it’s not like the guys we’re paying bigger dollars to now are expected to fall of a cliff. They’re all still young and entering their prime. We’ve got flexibility there. That’s how I look at it. Hamilton or Eberle? Who do you want? Tough call at this point but in a couple years I imagine Hamilton is the guy you’d rather have.

    The Oilers are in a bizarro position. There is soooo much youth that when it comes time to pay everybody there are some tough decisions to be made but if you make them right you just wind up still having tonnes of youth (Eberle for picks/prospects to fee cap room for example). If you make the picks well then you’re laughing for another 3-5 years until its time to sell off the next group.

  25. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: I think that’s best case scenario. If Tarasenko were a reasonable comparable, he would be the consensus 3rd overall pick.

    I just meant comparable as a player type, skill set and such at that age.

    Obviously if we knew where all these guys were going to top out, draft season wouldn’t be nearly as interesting!

  26. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Snowman,

    I’d actually take Hanifin there without hesitation. But if you thought Svechnikov would be the next Tarasenko whereas Hanifin could be JayBo or Niedermayer, Marner could be Ennis or Kane, scouts would probably pick the sure thing. That was my point.

  27. striatic says:

    spoiler,

    Svechnikov, but i suspect it is highly unlikely that he is available at 16.

  28. Really? says:

    Really like the look of Svechnikov at #16. He has the potential to be a big powerful winger to match up with McDavid and Hall on an incredible scoring line.

    Also agree with GR8ONE that if you can get hold of Kylington #33 that would be crazy good. If necessary he would be acceptable at #16 as plan B if Svechnikov is gone.

  29. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Svechnikov is bigger. Dunno if it’s fair. He came over and had a good rookie season whereas a guy like Ehlers blew the doors off last year. Tarasenko played KHL and played it well. He slid due to the KhL factor as well and how long it took him (as expected) to come over. He wound up better than advertised.

  30. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    So Svenchy might actually contribute earlier, based on playing in NA as a junior? And he’s bigger?

    I’m constantly surprised at this draft, and I’m not a draft nut or anything. For some reason, I’ve come to take more interest in it lately…

  31. knighttown says:

    Rantanen, Svechnikov, Zacha, Crouse are all great choices.

    But I take the Nuge clone Kyle Connors if he happens to be there and look to move Leon for that true #1 D.

  32. knighttown says:

    Also think Leafs would pay a Kings ransom for Leon if Strome is off the board.

    Think Hanifan would be in play.

    If the oilers traded Leon and came away with McDavid, Hanifan, Connors and Chabot that would be some good work.

  33. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Follow

    Jon RosenVerified account
    ‏@lakingsinsider
    AHL Commissioner David Andrews told me that California-based teams will play 68 games next year. Rest of the AHL plays 76.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think a D drops or Andersson is there at 33, so I’d lean to taking a forward at 16. D quality seems to steeply drop after Werenski/Provorov, and Roy/Chabot/Zboril aren’t all that impressive.

    One of Svechnikov, Meier, Barzal, Merkley, Konecny, Zacha would be stellar. Obviously some more realistic than others.

  35. knighttown says:

    I love the scouting report on Timo Meier but the Ehlers effect frightens me.

    A weird year like that with Strome, Marner, Merkeley and Meier at least somewhat questioned because of playing with monster teammates.

  36. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    knighttown: If the oilers traded Leon and came away with McDavid, Hanifan, Connors and Chabot that would be some good work.

    Just thinking about that, and I’m going to have to follow the advice of that old Oiler blog – go outside and jump around!

  37. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    An informal poll for Lowetidians because I can’t make my own damn mind up…

    It’s a helluva great trilemma, but if Svechnikov, Roy and Meier are all available at 16, who would you take?

    A. Svechnikov
    B. Roy
    C. Meier
    D. None of the above

    Roy
    Svechnikov
    Meier

    I think Roy is a very special player.

    Then I found out he put up this year’s numbers with a wrist injury for most of the year.

    He might have the most offensive upside of any Dman in the draft.

    I love Svechnikov too. Top 5 in many years that aren’t this deep, especially if his name was Trevor Shank and was from Turtleford, Sask.

  38. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    knighttown,

    It’s the Gagner effect and it’s so powerful it’s affecting Kane’s play lately.

  39. v4ance says:

    Woodguy: Roy
    Svechnikov
    Meier

    I think Roy is a very special player.

    Then I found out he put up this year’s numbers with a wrist injury for most of the year.

    He might have the most offensive upside of any Dman in the draft.

    I love Svechnikov too. Top 5 in many years that aren’t this deep, especially if his name was Trevor Shank and was from Turtleford, Sask.

    Hey! I’m from Turtleford and there aren’t any Shanks around.

    Lots of McNabs, MacDonalds, Chambers and a few MacLeods tho…

  40. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    v4ance: Hey! I’m from Turtleford

    I think I played with a wedding band in Turtleford once upon an age ago. The main guy had a $40k Italian-made accordion. Crazy.

  41. Lowetide says:

    v4ance: Hey!I’m from Turtleford and there aren’t any Shanks around.

    Lots of McNabs, MacDonalds, Chambers and a few MacLeods tho…

    Still great fishing at Turtle Lake? We lived a few years 17 miles north of Maidstone on the north road (turn left at allan store and we were two miles up). Man did I catch fish up there.

  42. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:
  43. theres oil in virginia says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): I think I played with a wedding band in Turtleford once upon an age ago. The main guy had a $40k Italian-made accordion. Crazy.

    Huh. Let me check my list of what to buy if I’ve ever got $40K lying around. I wonder how far down the list “buy an accordion” is. Just a minute…hang on…still going…almost there…yeah, it’s not there. For some reason accordion isn’t on the list. Strange.

  44. GOHARD88 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I would like to see something like 6 and 36 for 16, 33 and next years first.

  45. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    Agree with your order but does this mean you were feigning disappointment on last week’s SSE Mock Draft (awesome radio btw) when Kent picked Roy?

  46. Woodguy says:

    v4ance: Hey!I’m from Turtleford and there aren’t any Shanks around.

    Lots of McNabs, MacDonalds, Chambers and a few MacLeods tho…

    My Dad was born in Turtleford.

    My Grandfather and Grandmother are buried in St. Walburg.

    Paradise Hill area is one of my favorite spots on Earth and I’ve traveled quite a bit.

    When we went and buried Granny I recognized the last name on the tombstone next to my Grandfather’s as the same as a customer of mine.

    Turns out it was his Grandfather.

    We’re all from the Greater Turtleford Metroplex.

  47. bsmart says:

    spoiler:
    An informal poll for Lowetidians because I can’t make my own damn mind up…

    It’s a helluva great trilemma, but if Svechnikov, Roy and Meier are all available at 16, who would you take?

    A. Svechnikov
    B. Roy
    C. Meier
    D. None of the above

    Meier, Svechnikov than Roy. Meier reminds me of John Leclair with better wheels.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Still great fishing at Turtle Lake? We lived a few years 17 miles north of Maidstone on the north road (turn left at allan store and we were two miles up). Man did I catch fish up there.

    Should we start up with the stories of the The Turtle Lake Monsters?

    Legend has it (I’m serious by the way) that some Pike crossbred with Sturgeons and you had some 7ft behemoths with teeth like a Pike.

    They used to commercial fish in Turtle Lake and they’d find holes in the nets when no fish in that lake had any business chewing holes in those nets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtle_Lake_Monster

  49. OilLeak says:

    Woodguy: Roy
    Svechnikov
    Meier

    I think Roy is a very special player.

    Then I found out he put up this year’s numbers with a wrist injury for most of the year.

    He might have the most offensive upside of any Dman in the draft.

    I love Svechnikov too. Top 5 in many years that aren’t this deep, especially if his name was Trevor Shank and was from Turtleford, Sask.

    I with you on Roy for the 16th pick Woodguy. Almost PPG with injury, and he’s a May ’97 birthday unlike the suggested forwards which have October ’96 birthdays.

  50. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    GOHARD88:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I would like to see something like 6 and 36 for 16, 33 and next years first.

    Very Belichick of you. Can’t see Jersey biting knowing how deep this year’s draft is vs. Next year’s. Would love to walk away with McDavid and Provorov.

  51. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Should we start up with the stories of the The Turtle Lake Monsters?

    Legend has it (I’m serious by the way) that some Pike crossbred with Sturgeons and you had some 7ft behemoths with teeth like a Pike.

    They used to commercial fish in Turtle Lake and they’d find holes in the nets when no fish in that lake had any business chewing holes in those nets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtle_Lake_Monster

    Grew up in Cold Lake when the lake had huge lake trout that were caught commercially and exported to New York as Cold Lake Trout.

    My dad once brought home a huge one that draped over both ends of our kitchen table and when dressed we found 3 small jackfish in its guts.

    We also used to wander over the Saskatchewan border to Pierce Lake.

    Sadly, those days are long gone.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Grew up in Cold Lake when the lake had huge lake trout that were caught commercially and exported to New York as Cold Lake Trout.

    My dad once brought home a huge one that draped over both ends of our kitchen table and when dressed we found 3 small jackfish in its guts.

    We also used to wander over the Saskatchewan border to Pierce Lake.

    Sadly, those days are long gone.

    I’ve fished both Cold Lake and Pierce Lake.

    My Dad’s best friend had a nice cabin at Pierce and spent some good time up there.

    From the middle of June to the middle of August it’s amazing.

    Good times.

  53. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: I’ve fished both Cold Lake and Pierce Lake.

    My Dad’s best friend had a nice cabin at Pierce and spent some good time up there.

    From the middle of June to the middle of August it’s amazing.

    Good times.

    6 degrees and all that.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Lowetide,

    Agree with your order but does this mean you were feigning disappointment on last week’s SSE Mock Draft (awesome radio btw) when Kent picked Roy?

    No lol. If you pick Svechnikov then the second round is less fun because it’s likely D and G. If you take Roy, then the second round opens up and you can really make hay. I’m always bpa but if the Oilers get Roy at no. 16 then it’s absolutely free money in rounds two and three—whatever falls, they get.

    Can’t pass on Svechnikov though.

  55. sliderule says:

    You folks that like Roy may get your wish as Dandy has been watching him for some time and judging from the clip on TSN will be touting him.

    Defencemen who are 6-0 and under do not usually do well in nhl unless they can really skate.As his skating is an issue I don’t think his offence will transfer to nhl.

    Players who are always injured as he was with the wrist then ankle raise red flags with me.Gives them lots of excuses for lack of performance.

  56. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    theres oil in virginia: Let me check my list of what to buy if I’ve ever got $40K lying around.

    It was a very fine instrument. Old world craftspersonship, with modern technology. It could do pretty much everything except play the accordion!

  57. Tarkus says:

    I’ve already booked off the afternoon of the 26th. I will have a beer, and since the draft won’t start for four hours yet, I will have another.

    I too like the idea of Svechnikov at #16.

    The draft begins at 5 pm Turtleford time, yes?

  58. Woodguy says:

    Let me give you some perspective on Roy.

    43pts in 46 games, pretty good for in a draft aged Dman in the CHL.

    Wait….he did it WHILE PLAYING THROUGH A BROKEN WRIST AND SPRAINED KNEE!!

    Think he didn’t score enough? You’re right BECAUSE HIS WRIST WAS BROKEN.

    Regulars here know that I think the stat IPP (Individual Points Percentage) is really good indicator of future offence performance of CHL Dmen.

    You figure out what percentage of team goals in which the player had a point. All goals, all situations (favours power play Dmen, but so does the NHL)

    Here some of the top CHL Dmen taken over the last few years as well as some famous types I added in.

    Some very good all around Dmen aren’t at the top of this list, but the best “all around” put up pretty sexy scores to go with the other parts of their game.

    As always, never judge a pick until you are 5 years out.

    Doughty Draft -1 year: .351 (!!!!!!!!!!!!)
    Bogosian (3rd-2008) .351
    Dumba (7th-2012) .297
    Reilly (5th-2012) .283 (note: 18gm sample)
    Doughty (2nd-2008) .279 (injured)
    Murray (2nd-2012) .265
    Honka (14th-2014) .265
    Ekblad (1st-2014) .238
    Pietrangelo (4th-2008) .222
    Hamilton (9th-2011) .219
    Fowler (12th-2010) .208
    Jones (4th -2013) .199
    Pouliot (8th-2012) .182
    Gubranson (3rd-2010) .168
    Nurse (7th-2013) .158
    Reinhart (4th-2012) .145
    Schenn (5th-2008) .146
    McIlrath (10th-2010) .110

    Jermey Roy, with his wrist and knee put up a .288

  59. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy,

    So you’re saying that he’s always injured?

  60. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    You folks that like Roy may get your wish as Dandy has been watching him for some time and judging from the clip on TSN will be touting him.

    Defencemen who are 6-0 and under do not usually do well in nhl unless they can really skate.As his skating is an issue I don’t think his offence will transfer to nhl.

    Players who are always injured as he was with thewrist then ankle raise red flags with me.Gives them lots of excuses for lack of performance.

    Who is Dandy?

    43 points in 46 games with a broken wrist and you call it an excuse?

    I know a Major (was a Captain when we hung out) who taught at West Point and he didn’t grade that hard.

    Lordy.

  61. Woodguy says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Woodguy,

    So you’re saying that he’s always injured?

    Yes, just like those slackers Doughty and Reilly.

    Good thing those guys were 6’1 and not 6’0.

  62. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Just looking at that list and isn’t Nurse’s number a little concerning with the company he’s with? Or is it more he should never really be expected to put up that much offence in the NHL?

    Also, sign me up for Roy.

  63. D says:

    Snowman: If you offer sheet Hamilton and you get him for $7M. It’d be easy enough to offload Eberle to pay for it when the time comes to pay McDavid. I’m not saying you should offer sheet anybody but it’s not like the guys we’re paying bigger dollars to now are expected to fall off a cliff. They’re all still young and entering their prime. We’ve got flexibility there. That’s how I look at it. Hamilton or Eberle? Who do you want? Tough call at this point but in a couple years I imagine Hamilton is the guy you’d rather have.

    The Oilers are in a bizarro position. There is soooo much youth that when it comes time to pay everybody there are some tough decisions to be made but if you make them right you just wind up still having tonnes of youth (Eberle for picks/prospects to free cap room for example). If you make the picks well then you’re laughing for another 3-5 years until its time to sell off the next group.

    That’s a valid point you raise. My concern is that the Oilers have been operating under a self-imposed salary cap with the Hall, RNH, and Eberle contracts. I’m more worried that exceeding that cap (other than with McDavid in three years, which is completely understandable) would be sending an inflationary message to the entire core cluster. Back in the 80s, the Oilers used 99s contract as a de facto individual salary cap that enabled them to justify keeping several players at below-market value, even when salaries around the league started the inflationary spiral. If the Oilers maintain fiscal discipline now, if they end up being a championship team in a few years, players may re-up for slightly less than market value, just to stay with a winner.

    That’s the angle I’m looking at really. But your point is entirely valid and I see the value of what you are saying.

  64. RexLibris says:

    Svechnikov would hit a lot of the targets for the Oilers, if he is still available.

    Size, skill and could replace Pouliot on the wing in a few years’ time when he is ready, assuming they bring him along slowly.

  65. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    Bill Dandy is the oiler Quebec scout.

    There is a reason why Roy is lower than Zboril on Bobs list.

    At the u 18 Roy was outplayed by Chabot .Herbers who was an assistant raved about Chabot not so much Roy

  66. v4ance says:

    Tarkus,

    Yes.

    7 PM at the BB&T Center in Florida so 5 pm T’ford time.

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy:
    Let me give you some perspective on Roy.

    43pts in 46 games, pretty good for in a draft aged Dman in the CHL.

    Wait….he did itWHILE PLAYING THROUGH A BROKEN WRIST AND SPRAINED KNEE!!

    Think he didn’t score enough? You’re right BECAUSE HIS WRIST WAS BROKEN.

    Regulars here know that I think the stat IPP (Individual Points Percentage) is really good indicator of future offence performance of CHL Dmen.

    You figure out what percentage of team goals in which the player had a point.All goals, all situations (favours power play Dmen, but so does the NHL)

    Here some of the top CHL Dmen taken over the last few years as well as some famous types I added in.

    Some very good all around Dmen aren’t at the top of this list, but the best “all around” put up pretty sexy scores to go with the other parts of their game.

    As always, never judge a pick until you are 5 years out.

    Doughty Draft -1 year: .351 (!!!!!!!!!!!!)
    Bogosian(3rd-2008) .351
    Dumba (7th-2012) .297
    Reilly (5th-2012) .283 (note: 18gm sample)
    Doughty (2nd-2008) .279 (injured)
    Murray (2nd-2012) .265
    Honka (14th-2014) .265
    Ekblad (1st-2014).238
    Pietrangelo (4th-2008) .222
    Hamilton (9th-2011) .219
    Fowler (12th-2010) .208
    Jones (4th -2013) .199
    Pouliot (8th-2012) .182
    Gubranson (3rd-2010) .168
    Nurse (7th-2013) .158
    Reinhart (4th-2012) .145
    Schenn (5th-2008) .146
    McIlrath (10th-2010) .110

    Jermey Roy, with his wrist and knee put up a .288

    Selecting D men in the draft is almost as voodoo as selecting G.

    Unless the player is a slam dunk impact #1D right out of the chute…say Drew Doughty…things are much more sketchy.

    Kimmo Timonen was selected in the 10th round (250th overall) of the 1993 draft and is just now ending his career after all this time.

    Duncan Keith was selected near the end of the second round (54th overall) in 2002.

    I don’t think you set your sights on a D in the 1st round unless your are absolutely sure he will be an impact player.

    For example, in Keith’s draft year, Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney, Ballard, Eminger, Grebeshkov, Babchuck, Martin Vagner, Andrej Nemec, Daley, Greene, Tomas Linhart, Kirill Kotsov, Anton Kadeykin and some dude named Daniel Spang were all drafted ahead of Keith.

    Unless you are drafting a Hanifin, draft a high scoring centre…and then draft another one.

  68. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy: Yes, just like those slackers Doughty and Reilly.

    And Muzzin. Promising defender, written off by Pittsburgh because of back problems, signed by LA.

  69. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Jeremy Roy discussing less goals this year compared to the year before. Start at 7:50

    https://soundcloud.com/pipeline-show/jeremy-roy-may23

  70. Dashingsilverfox says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): And Muzzin. Promising defender, written off by Pittsburgh because of back problems, signed by LA.

    And drafted in the 5th round.

  71. El Duderino says:

    D:
    LT,

    The rest of the Friedman article had an interesting counterbalance.“McDavid is going to be three years away. But McDavid is a guy that you do have to take care of. You do have to look at the situation and say, ‘When the time comes, we’ve got to be able to handle that contract.’If you’re paying $7 million a year for Dougie Hamilton – and is he really a $7 million a year player? That will affect your ability to do other business.”

    That’s still the part that appeals to me personally.I feel that a Hamilton offer sheet is a misstep.

    Dam straight. You’ve got it , Pontiac.

  72. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    Just looking at that list and isn’t Nurse’s number a little concerning with the company he’s with? Or is it more he should never really be expected to put up that much offence in the NHL?

    Also, sign me up for Roy.

    I think its an offence thing.

    There are lots of good Dmen who don’t bring a ton of offence.

    The best do though.

  73. Jaxon says:

    These are the players I’d have on my radar, in order:

    1. Connor McDavid
    With 16th:
    2. Mikko Rantanen (not likely still there)
    3. Timo Meier (not likely still there)
    4. Brock Boeser
    5. Daniel Sprong
    6. Denis Guryanov
    With 33rd:
    7. Jack Roslovic (if a RW was available at 16, then skip Roslovic and pick Andersson or Meloche here)
    8. Rasmus Andersson
    9. Nicolas Meloche
    10. Zachary Senyshyn
    With 57th:
    11. Thomas Schemitsch
    12. Loik Leveille
    With 79th & 86th:
    13. Yakov Trenin
    14. Nicolas Roy
    15. Keegan Kolesar
    with 117th:
    16. Best Goalie Available
    with 124th:
    17. Best Goalie Available
    with 154th:
    18. Vladimir Tkachev (I wouldn’t wait until our last pick as someone might steal him just to spite the Oilers, but I don’t think he will go higher than 154)
    with 184th:
    19. Best Goalie Available.

  74. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Just moved from CL in 2013, nicest spot in Alberta…..Cypress Hills a close 2nd.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Selecting D men in the draft is almost as voodoo as selecting G.

    Unless the player is a slam dunk impact #1D right out of the chute…say Drew Doughty…things are much more sketchy.

    Kimmo Timonen was selected in the 10th round (250th overall) of the 1993 draft and is just now ending his career after all this time.

    Duncan Keith was selected near the end of the second round (54th overall) in 2002.

    I don’t think you set your sights on a D in the 1st round unless your are absolutely sure he will be an impact player.

    For example, in Keith’s draft year, Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney, Ballard, Eminger, Grebeshkov, Babchuck, Martin Vagner, Andrej Nemec, Daley, Greene, Tomas Linhart, Kirill Kotsov, Anton Kadeykin and some dude named Daniel Spang were all drafted ahead of Keith.

    Unless you are drafting a Hanifin, draft a high scoring centre…and then draft another one.

    No where did I say this was the end all be all of evaluating Dmen.

    Its one tool, its offence specific and sometimes the magic 8-ball is a better predictor.

    If I’m drafting a Dman that high, he better bring offence to the table.

    Your mileage may vary.

  76. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: No where did I say this was the end all be all of evaluating Dmen.

    Its one tool and its offence specific.

    If I’m drafting a Dman that high, he better bring offence to the table.

    Your mileage may vary.

    He’d better bring everything to the table or walk away.

  77. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    Bill Dandy is the oiler Quebec scout.

    There is a reason why Roy is lower than Zboril on Bobs list.

    At the u 18 Roy was outplayed by Chabot .Herbers who was an assistant raved about Chabot not so much Roy

    Thanks for that.

    Everyone has their favorites.

    Redline had Roy as the 3rd best Dman at 11 (Werenski is 4th at 12)

    They also state that “he’s the best pure offensive Dman in the draft”

    I like Bob’s list for prediction where players will go, but outside the very top it doesn’t produce who will have the best career very well.

  78. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes but Roy played with a high ankle sprain u18

  79. Kitchener says:

    square_wheels,

    Sorry dude – 115 St & 102 Ave has about ten liquor stores within a 5 minute walk. Plus Kelly’s a hop & a skip away (“Kelly’s: where there’s always an informed Oiler opinion at the urinals and food poisoning at home the next morning!”)

  80. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Muzzin does nothing to improve your argument that D are voodoo.

    He was a 5th rounder because he lost his entire pre-draft year to back surgery and recovered during his 2007 draft year which limited him to only 37 games. He missed a year and a half of development due to a significant injury that might have ended his career, especially since he was known to play a grinding style. Not having much production led to him (rightly) being chosen in the later rounds as a long shot.

    He didn’t show much production in his draft+1 (18 pts in 67 games) or +2 (29 in 62 games) years and the Pens gave up on him. LA picked him up in 2009 as a UFA and that’s when he finally broke through and got his game together (67 pts in 64 games).

    In this Redline report from 2005 of 15-16 year olds, at 6’2″ 200 lbs Muzzin was actually ranked 12th over a guy named Doughty at 22nd: http://www.redlinejunior.com/html/sam_60profiles.html

    Plus if you use Timonen as an example of the difficulty scouting defencemen, you fail to recognize that scouts may have gotten better in the 22 years since he was drafted? Or maybe the Datsyuk factor was in play and there were not many Euro scouts as there are now?

    Nice of you to cherrypick a few examples though. Keep throwing those strawmen around.

  81. square_wheels says:

    Kitchener,

    Pretty sure CL has the highest ratio of liquor stores to people ratios in Canada. Second place would likely go to Grande Praire.

  82. Jaxon says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    but look at the D in the first 2 rounds of 2008. What a monster year for drafting D. Actually it was deep all the way through for D. Crazy:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/draft.php?year=2008&sort=position&position=D

    I’ll put my 2008 up against Keith’s 2003 for an argument for drafting D in the first round. Although, that said, this year, I wouldn’t go D in the first round as I think there are some overrated D going early and some underrated D going later. Plus, the D possibly available for the Oilers are left-handed and the Oilers are full of D prospects and youngster NHLers. Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, Lellaggia, Simpson, Musil, Oesterle, Betker, Gernat, Davidson, etc, etc. all left-handers. I think they should pick a RW at #16 who can play with Hall and McDavid once he arrives and will either be cheaper than Eberle and Yak or will allow them to trade one of them when they are up against the cap.

    My argument against Juulsen and Jermey Roy would be their size. I know Erik Karlsson and a few others can prove me wrong as exceptions (Kulikov, Karlsson and Leddy), but if you look at the 3 Ryans (don’t name your kid Ryan if you want him to be a big D) Ellis, Murray and Murphy who were drafted in the top 16 since 2008 had amazing to good NHLE numbers (Ellis: 38, Murphy: 32, Murray: 18) but have failed to replicate that at the NHL level. Is is because of their size disadvantage? Can’t be sure. But if you look at the other D in the top 16 who are at least 6’0″, 195 lbs and achieved equal or better NHLEs (18 or higher), they have mostly gone onto successful careers and most teams would kill to have them. Players like Victor Hedman (31 NHLE), Zach Bogosian (24), Alex Pietrangelo (23), Cam Fowler (23), Dougie Hamilton (22), Aaron Ekblad (22), Drew Doughty (21), Seth Jones (21), PK Subban (20). That’s why I would take a hard look at Rasmus Andersson (24), Nicolas Meloche (19), Loik Leveille (19) & Thomas Schemitsch (17). I’d take one of them with the 33rd pick and then try for another with 57 or 79.

  83. Woodguy says:

    Jaxon,

    , but if you look at the 3 Ryans (don’t name your kid Ryan if you want him to be a big D) Ellis, Murray and Murphy who were drafted in the top 16 since 2008 had amazing to good NHLE numbers (Ellis: 38, Murphy: 32, Murray: 18) but have failed to replicate that at the NHL level. Is is because of their size disadvantage?

    Murray hasn’t been been healthy since he was drafted.

    Murphy has had some injuries issues too, but don’t really know the player.

    Ellis has been very good for a while, its just that no one knows it.

    He’s RH and playing behind Weber on NSH so Weber is getting the cherry PP time and that affects Dman offence a ton.

    Here’s Ellis’ 5v5 pts/60 last two years

    14/15
    1.40pts/60 – 4th best in the NHL (!!!!)

    13/14
    1.03 pts/60 – 27th best in the NHL

    The rule is to not judge a pick until 5 years out.

    Remember that Dmen take time and smaller Dmen like Ellis probably need a bit more time to get all the man strength.

    Ellis was drafted in 09, so being 27th in the NHL in pts/60 among D 4 years after his draft year and 4th in the NHL in his 5th year after his draft year is very, very good.

    I dispute that Ellis has failed to replicate his offence at the NHL level.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Jeremy Roy discussing less goals this year compared to the year before.Start at 7:50

    https://soundcloud.com/pipeline-show/jeremy-roy-may23

    Thanks for that.

    Roy said he was being covered closer this year since he scored 14 as a 16 year old and didn’t get the shooting lanes he had this year.

    So he passed it a lot instead, especially to his D partner who got 14g this year as a result.

  85. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Yes but Roy played with a high ankle sprain u18

    Don’t understand your statement.

  86. auzy11 says:

    You have to throw an offer sheet at Hamilton,thats what the rule is there for,i think this year we will see 4-5 offer sheets,if the Oilers dont offer for Hamilton someone else will,I wish the GMs would not be so chickenshit on using this avenue,its a rule,who cares what Neely or anyone else for that matter thinks. Do it

  87. auzy11 says:

    PLus trade the second pick overall if you get a decent D man,this team should be so much better next year its silly,,,,How about thanking Mact for aquiring all these Picks in first 4 rounds!!!!!!!!!

  88. v4ance says:

    http://www.redlinejunior.com/html/sam_60profiles.html

    Some great exerpts from this top 60 scouting forecast of 15-16 year olds:

    1 AAA Nick Petrecki LD Capital District Jr A 2 6’2 192
    Solid physically loves to hit, very smart, high panic point, first guy in corner, jumps in, aggressive; one of the best players on the ice playing against 20-year olds; tough; physical; outstanding outlet passes, NHL quality right now; hard shot and gets it on net; came back from devastating-looking knee-on-knee hit one period later; mentally and physically strong; will play in the OHL if the situation is right; poised beyond his age; tremendous prospect

    3 AAA Samuel Gagner RC Toronto Marlies 9 5’10 177
    Very smart, potential captain, excellent defensively, great on draws, good leadership; extremely patient with the puck; gives and receives passes effortlessly; talented, hard-working, NHL bloodlines; great prospect; spins off contact well; knows where to be and what to do when he gets the puck; vision, thinks two seconds ahead of everyone else; great hands in tight; taking his game up several notches; word is he’s heading stateside and will play for Sioux City of the USHL next year before going NCAA

    4 AAA Logan Couture LC St. Thomas Jr B 77 6’0 180
    Offensive guy, deadly from the circles down very quick release, great hands, tremendous acceleration, very smart and aware defensively, excellent on the PP; strong stride with excellent change of direction; soft hand; very creative and slick; responsible in all zones; not very physical, but doesn’t shy away from traffic; unbelievably good skater; glides with grace and power; competes entire shift; can receive tough passes; excellent distributor; will be even better playing with better players; great saucer passes; will likely go first overall to Oshawa unless John Tavares is allowed into the draft

    7 AAA Kevin Shattenkirk RD Brunswick 8 5’11 178
    Offensive D, Loves to jump in, gap control needs work, good size, 4th forward, good offensive tools, loses his man defensively at times; getting stronger and thicker; effortless skater with acceleration and flat out speed; does whatever he wants with the puck; potential superstar; complete game is rounding out well; much more physical than this summer; great anticipation;smart; aware; very strong on stick; would be a big surprise if he went OHL route; offered by U-17 NTDP

    12 AAA Jake Muzzin LD Brantford 11 6’2 200
    Huge shot, very physical ultra aggressive; downright mean at times;, feet are getting much better, thick kid, very strong physically, improving dramatically, looking to carry the puck more, physically man-handles guys, becoming poised and confident, fast rising; jumps into offense smartly; great gaps; erases opponents; needs work on puck poise; throws very good breakout pass; needs to work on separation better; still raw and needs lots of time and refinement but great combination of size/strength/aggression

    22 AAA Drew Doughty LD London 19 6’0 185
    Smart, very capable, gets his shot through, great skills, needs to be more consistent, could be a star; transition skating needs work; runs around in own end at times; can really lug it up the ice; great puck poise, low panic point; jumps into offense effectively and efficiently; power play QB; a bit of a “young buck”, wild and out of control but powerful; needs work on the defensive end of the game; takes lots of chances; own zone play not his strong suit

    35 AAA James Van Riemsdyk LC/LW Brick 21 6’2 175
    Beautiful long stride, excellent patience, quick release, needs to fill out, sweet hands, strong on his skates, needs to compete a little harder, tough to see him; very good skater; smooth long stride; goes to the net; not overly physical; soft on “d”; very raw; very good with the puck, sometimes looks lost without it; saucer passes; strong on stick; good stops/starts; needs to start challenging himself more if he wants to be a player; looks like he’ll end up in Ann Arbor with the U-17s

    2007 draft went Kane, JVR, Turris, Hickey, Alzner and then Gags. The RLR didn’t have #1 Kane, #3Hickey or #5 Alzner in the Top 60 of 2005 and Petrecki dropped to 28th by 2007. Kind of shows how much 2 years can change the outlook on players during these critical development years.

  89. Lois Lowe says:

    square_wheels:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Just moved from CL in 2013, nicest spot in Alberta…..Cypress Hills a close 2nd.

    I’m aware that taste is subjective, but as someone who lived and explored the Rockies for thirty plus years, I beg to differ. Nothing in Alberta can compare to the Rockies.

  90. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Rate the top 10 D in the league and then take a look at where they were picked.

    My rankings:

    Keith – late second round

    Doughty – obvious impact D

    Chara – 3rd round

    Weber – 2nd round

    Letang – 3rd round

    Subban – 2nd round

    Giordano – undrafted

    Karlsson – 1st round

    OEL – 1st round obvious impact D

    Josi – 2nd round

    Your mileage may vary but the best D in the league come from all over the draft.

    I’m not against drafting a D in the 1st round but you’d better get it right.

    Darnell Nurse, who is still likely not ready to be an everyday D in the league, is a prime example.

  91. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy,

    Count on you to look a little deeper. Good points as usual, and yes, you’re right, they are probably better than their stats show due to injuries and being stuck behind a great right side in Nashville. Now, you could probably make another argument that the injuries are a result of them being smaller and getting knocked around too much, which would also indicate it might not be a great idea to draft a smaller player than 6’0″, 195 lbs (which is a pretty low bar size-wise in today’s NHL).

    BTW, your post above on IPP inspired me to go looking for that info. I found a source McKeen’s Hockey. Is that where you get your info from. It’s amazing. I cut & paste the tables into a google spreadsheet and added NHLEs for goals, assists and points. Thanks.

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?mingames=5&drafted=Any&pos=3#

  92. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lois Lowe: I’m aware that taste is subjective, but as someone who lived and explored the Rockies for thirty plus years, I beg to differ. Nothing in Alberta can compare to the Rockies.

    The Gateway to British Columbia.

  93. jm363561 says:

    jm363561:

    At 4 the Oilers ship Leon and 33 to Toromto and take Hanifin!

  94. jm363561 says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Me too. It’s the McD, PChia, TMc syndrome. I keep reminding myself I can handle despair, it’s the hope that kills you.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Jaxon:
    Woodguy,

    Count on you to look a little deeper. Good points as usual, and yes, you’re right, they are probably better than their stats show due to injuries and being stuck behind a great right side in Nashville. Now, you could probably make another argument that the injuries are a result of them being smaller and getting knocked around too much, which would also indicate it might not be a great idea to draft a smaller player than 6’0″, 195 lbs (which is a pretty low bar size-wise in today’s NHL).

    BTW, your post above on IPP inspired me to go looking for that info. I found a source McKeen’s Hockey. Is that where you get your info from. It’s amazing. I cut & paste the tables into a google spreadsheet and added NHLEs for goals, assists and points. Thanks.

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?mingames=5&drafted=Any&pos=3#

    I just grind it out from hockeydb.

    Make sure to get goals/game for the team, then adjust for the number of games the player played.

    Its not a crystal ball, but interesting to look at.

    Guys like Subban would have gone much earlier.

    NOTE: edited for clarity

  96. Woodguy says:

    Jaxon,

    Also, thought the rest of your post was excellent.

    Ellis is a hobby horse of mine…..

  97. Kermodoil says:

    At 16, the Oilers should take Chabot, a climber this year, and showed he is a quality Dman at the U-18. I doubt Svechnikov is still available. I think Calgary takes him at 15, if he is still available. Chabot has good height, 6’2″ great wheels, good first pass, and can play defence.

    at 33 – possibly traded for a goalie or Dman, if not take Juulsen, Andersson, or Roslovic.

    57 – take the best goalie prospect – we do need to develop goalies, the Oilers cannot keep picking
    Bouchards

    4th round on – take Gavrikov, Appleby, 2 overagers who showed in big tournaments they can be great against their peers.

    Take Leville, Senyshen, Pilon, Timashov, and Cirelli if available.

    Avoid Vladdy hockey at all costs. He was brutal in the Memorial cup, played in one direction only, avoided defence part of the game. We do play in the western conference, against big skating teams.

  98. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy:
    Jaxon,

    Also, thought the rest of your post was excellent.

    Ellis is a hobby horse of mine…..

    Ellis scored 101 points in his final junior season which is just ridiculous for a defenseman.

    Even so, it took him 3 years to get a full NHL season.

    I can certainly understand your affinity but he is almost the poster child for how risky it is to take a D high in the 1st round.

    The player you pick better be elite.

  99. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Rate the top 10 D in the league and then take a look at where they were picked.

    My rankings:

    Keith – late second round

    Doughty – obvious impact D

    Chara – 3rd round

    Weber – 2nd round

    Letang – 3rd round

    Subban – 2nd round

    Giordano – undrafted

    Karlsson – 1st round

    OEL – 1st round obvious impact D

    Josi – 2nd round

    Your mileage may vary but the best D in the league come from all over the draft.

    I’m not against drafting a D in the 1st round but you’d better get it right.

    Darnell Nurse, who is still likely not ready to be an everyday D in the league, is a prime example

    Look at your list. It’s the current group of top d in the league and most are picked in the 1st thru 3rd rounds. It proves that scouts ARE getting better at projecting defencemen.

    Letang was the first pick of the 3rd round in the Sidney Crosby draft. He was overlooked on a horrible Val D’or team (2nd worst in QMJHL) and was drafted after his teammate Luc Bourdon went 10th to the Canucks. Letang fell to the 3rd because he was smallish but he easily could have been a 2nd rounder.

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2005-07-14-red-line-defense_x.htm
    “Sleeper: Val-d’Or’s Kristopher Letang was overlooked for two reasons this year: first, he’s a bit undersized at just 6-0, 188 pounds. Second, everyone was looking at his defensive teammate, Bourdon. The question for Letang is whether his tremendous skating and smarts overcome his lack of size? He has exceptional footwork and, frankly, much better hockey sense than the more-publicized Bourdon, particularly in the offensive zone. He’s a very smart PP quarterback and plays a clean, efficient, mistake-free game. He’s a very subtle player, but very underrated. His poise under pressure, neat spin moves and great puck movement decisions give him a good shot to overcome the size handicap.

    Chara in the 3rd round

    I SAW Chara in his 2nd season with the Isles playing against the Sens on CBC. Do you know how BAD his skating was back then? He was the classic uncoordinated big man on skates. He didn’t figure everything out til he was 25 and that’s why he lasted into the 3rd.

    We’ve seen so many big men who were drafted being unable to correct the substantial skating flaws that Chara possessed. It took a LOT of hard work on his part to become a good then an elite D who could pivot and skate with some of the fastest in the world.

    Remember, at one time, the Sens had to make a choice between Chara and Wade Redden and they chose to keep Redden. They fact that was even a debate shows in hindsight how far Chara has grown as a quality NHL D

    Shea Weber:
    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2012/6/11/3075201/2003-nhl-re-draft-shea-weber-first-overall
    “Shea Weber was far from a top prospect back in June 2003. He wasn’t amongst the twenty prospects who had their picture taken with the Calder Trophy in the introduction article, and NHL Central Scouting had him ranked way down as the 42nd North American ranked skater. Even the team that picked him selected two players ahead of him, both of whom were also defensemen (Ryan Suter and Kevin Klein).”

    Giordano was undrafted because he was a very late bloomer who wasn’t even in the OHL in his draft year in 2002. He was signed as a 20 year old and still took another 6 years of development to establish himself as a bonafide NHler and he even then, he wasn’t a star til last year.

    With defencemen, I think that the learning curve of the NHL is so tough, it weeds out even skilled prospects who looked like they are NHL capable. Drafting D, it starts with the skills and production that they show during their draft years but once they get to the NHL, the heights they reach are strictly based on how hard they work and how well they learn.

  100. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    My mother grew up in Dewberry.

    Google tells me that from Dewberry it’s a 50 minute car ride straight east to Paradise Hill. Compared to Dewberry, the town of Paradise Hill is a bustling metropolis (the avenues go up to 7!). And, wow, Turtleford … it has three separate 2 St Ss! So many streets, just ran right plain out of numbers.

    My mother was extraordinarily tight about her childhood and upbringing. In fact, the single word “Dewberry” is all I ever knew about her former world. I knew three things about Dewberry: it was small, it had a school, and it had a general store. I never heard either of her sisters say a single word about the place, either.

    I guess they never made the drive over to Paradise. If they had a car. I don’t even know that, for certain. I don’t really know a single story about her father, except that he was ill and cooped up and grumpy after the war. Never met him. My maternal grandmother was very ill as well by the time I was old enough to remember her, so I mostly remember her confined to bed with some kind of bone cancer. She wasn’t by then a ray of sunshine, either, and I don’t think she ever had been.

    My paternal grandmother was also a bit of a cold fish—maybe not cold so much as emotionally stiff—with her own health issues (it was always referred to rather alarmingly as “a hole in her heart”), but that never stopped her from winning an armload of prizes in the town fair year after year (mostly flowers and baking—which was almost industrial in scope during the preparatory week).

    I liked my paternal grandfather a lot—a jack of all trades with a wry bent—but it was his mother who was the one really warm person in my family tree. Great grandma passed at age 89 when I was still pretty young, but I still remember her better than most of my relatives. Last song they sang at her funeral was Amazing Grace. I’d never heard it sung that slow before. It nearly ruined me. I don’t think there was a make-believe sad person in the entire place.

    However, she bucked the family trend. I think if you polled my ancestors from the previous three generations, when asked “why are you alive?” three out of four would reply “because it’s my job”. Mostly they were good to great at their jobs, but as for fond memories … or sharing memories of any kind … not so much.

    I didn’t figure out myself how to have warm memories until I was nearly 50. Like, last year or thereabouts. Probably why I never had kids. It’s kind of sad, really, that Woodguy appears to know far more about my mother’s childhood environs than I do.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Ellis scored 101 points in his final junior season which is just ridiculous for a defenseman.

    Even so, it took him 3 years to get a full NHL season.

    I can certainly understand your affinity but he is almost the poster child for how risky it is to take a D high in the 1st round.

    The player you pick better be elite.

    I don’t think waiting 4 years for a Dman to be 4th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring is risky.

    It will test your patience, especially if you’re the Oilers, but that’s part of the game with Dmen.

  102. v4ance says:

    Great memories growing up in T’ford.

    We called Paradise Hill “Pee Hill”, Livelong was “Deadsoon” since there were so many old people there and Walburg and Edam were called just that.

    Fishing around the town , there were a couple of good spots for pike by the junction that split the highway that led to either Glaslyn or Walburg/Spruce Lake to the north. It was right around the vet clinic or the water treatment plant where there were a lot of nice shady spots for the fish to hang out in the curves in the Turtle River.

    Down west of town, by the #303 secondary road headed towards LT’s place, there was more sloughs and swampy ponds so not great spots for fish. They filled in the pond by the school because there was a 20 year old tale about a kid drowning in the water down the hill from the old building.

    When you talk of Dewberry, I think of Prince. It was a hamlet of 4 houses, a sign along the highway for selling honey and a grain elevator on the road to N. Battleford that everyone seemed to pronounce “Battleferd”.

    Small towns in he Greater Turtleford Metropolis were amazing places to grow up. You could get into all sorts of fun but never be any real danger…

  103. Pouzar says:

    D-men take time. Who knew?

  104. kinger_OIL says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    That was a wonderful post by the way: thanks for sharing…

  105. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    You mention that waiting 4-5 years is a fail.

    Here’s your list and the number of years it took those players to lead their NHL teams in TOI/gm (either 1st or 2nd in TOI/gm for the season and established themselves as a top pairing Dman)

    Keith – 4th season post draft
    Doughty – 1 season post draft
    Chara – 5th season (was 2nd, but very close to Redden)
    Weber – 6th season (was 2nd, but very close to Suter)
    Letang – 6th season
    Subban – 5th season
    Giordano – 9th season after draft eligible year
    Karlsson – 3rd season
    OEL – 3rd season
    Josi – 5th season

    So on one hand you say:

    “Dmen come from every round, careful drafting them in the first round!”

    Then you intimate that waiting 3 years for a 1st rounder is a long time.

    Looking at the list the players who got to the top pairing on their teams the fastest were the first rounders.

    The others took some time. Some took a lot of time.

    Which is probably why they weren’t drafted in the first round.

  106. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Unless you are drafting a Hanifin, draft a high scoring centre…and then draft another one.

    I agree with that on principle for sure.

    I just think Roy rates high enough to take in the 1st round and eschew a C at 16.

  107. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Unless you are drafting a Hanifin, draft a high scoring centre…and then draft another one.

    I agree with that on principle for sure.

    I just think Roy rates high enough to take in the 1st round and eschew a C at 16.

    I’m wondering why bobs list has him at 29.

    Did the scouts figure the injuries into their ranking?
    Size? He is not overly big.
    Skating? Some scouts say very good. Some say he is not fast and will need to work on it. Again did injuries affect him here.
    Shot? Likes to use the wrister from the point. Meh slapper. Again is this because of wrist injury?

    He is ranked from 14th or is it 11th to the start of the second round.

    Putting up 43 points in 46 games ( on my phone, think that’s right) in an injury plagued season on a meh team is outstanding. Puck skills, IQ, wanting to be a difference maker are top notch.

    But I do have concern on why some scouts have in the late first/second round.

    I’d be happy with him at 16, but I’m not sure he will be BPA or even bda at that point.

  108. oliveoilers says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    My sister in law and her family live in Dewberry. Hockey and chuck-wagons. Town is owned by the Bensmillers. It is a strange part of the world where everybody knows who you are in a fifty mile radius. This can be disconcerting when you drive for an hour and somebody still says “so YOU’RE the English guy!”

    Time also seems to stop there. The Derwent Hotel’s bar (also pizza place) has carpet on the walls, tables and even the floor. My dad tells me it was all the rage in English pubs in the 70s.

  109. monsterbater4 says:

    My god it’s like a family reunion in here, my grandparents are from St Warburg and good soil. Have more of their family in meadow lake, mackwa, etc

  110. Soup Fascist says:

    auzy11:
    You have to throw an offer sheet at Hamilton,thats what the rule is there for,i think this year we will see 4-5 offer sheets,if the Oilers dont offer for Hamilton someone else will,I wish the GMs would not be so chickenshit on using this avenue,its a rule,who cares what Neely or anyone else for that matter thinks.Do it

    I don’t know if I can agree. I mean he horced on Harry’s burger because of a little salt shaker and looked truly pissed when he got stuck with a bill for a couple burgers. Then the whole bathroom stall thing. I would SERIOUSLY consider the ramifications of signing his best D-man to an offer sheet.

    Chiarelli could always point his finger at MacT when Neely came over all pissed and say “he did it”. Maybe that is the reason Chiarelli kept MacT around.

    Mystery solved.

  111. monsterbater4 says:

    Don’t get me wrong, I like hanifin as much as the next guy but trading draisatl AND the 33rd for the right to draft him at 4th (if he’s there) is poor asset management and crazy talk. Drai is one year removed from being 3rd overall and dominated the WHL again in his draft +1 en route to a heartbreaking OT loss in the memorial cup final. The chances of hanifin being the next doughty are less likely than him being the next bogosian (solid but not game changer). Giving up the 33rd on top of that which will likely be a great prospect or could get us a good goalie isn’t worth it.Straight up is a closer trade but even then you have to fill the lack of depth at centre again.

  112. monsterbater4 says:

    Another way to look at it is the perceived gap between hanifin and nurse/klefbom greater than the gap between draisatl and lander, yakimov, khaira, platzer + a high 2nd rounder…. I don’t think so.

    Drai on a trade with the 33rd should get you close to a 21-23 Year old RH D who projects similar to hanifin and that’s what I would explore IMO.

  113. Pouzar says:

    Jeremy Roy:

    From McKeen’s 2015 NHL Draft Guide…

    A mature, cerebral defender who sees the ice remark- ably well and can locate his teammates with crisp, cross-ice passes, initiating a breakout .. highly-skilled puckhandler with soft hands .. an effective quarterback on the power play .. skating is decent – stride lacks elite power and doesn’t generate burst during acceleration phase .. unafraid to make the simple play or the flashy play, when needed .. possesses off the charts hockey sense with the ability to control the play .. what separates him is his ability to make plays with the puck at his top speed with hands that operate quicker than his feet .. not very physical, his anticipation serves him well in all three zones – always positionally sound with solid stickwork providing an advantage .. can play either side defensively, adding to his value and versatility

    From Future Considerations’ 2015 Draft Guide…

    Roy is a pretty pure offensive defenseman. He shows great poise and composure when opposing forwards forecheck. He is effective, shows great vision and passing skills when he makes a great outlet pass to begin the breakout. His strength is certainly in his passing. He passes tape-to-tape and hits teammates in stride. He likes to rush the puck and does it pretty effectively, but he does struggle a little at top speeds through the neutral zone. He seemed to fumble it a bit at his top speed. He reads the situation well, knowing when to push it more or slow it down to wait for his teammates to join in. He is pretty aggressive with his pinches, and creates loads of offensive opportunity when he makes that gamble. His shot is extremely heavy from the point, but it is typically all power and very little precision, missing the net often… He is not a huge liability defensively, but he does leave a little to be desired back there with regards to his decision-making. The biggest thing is his inability to play a two-on-one correctly. He often gets caught in the middle of playing the pass or going for the puck carrier, showing indecisiveness. That usually results in a good scoring chance for the opposition.

  114. A'bunadh says:

    My wife is from Lashburn and has lots of family in that area. When we first got together she talked about all these different lakes (Turtle, Brightsand, Loon, Ministikwan, Murphy) that her family and friends had places on and how beautiful they were. Growing up in the Kootenay’s I scoffed at the thought of any lake in Saskatchewan being “beautiful”. My first trip up there we went to a cabin right on Turtle and I was blown away. We’ve since headed out from Alberta to spend a couple weeks every summer at one of the lakes out in that area for the last 20 years now.

  115. Kmart99 says:

    When picking a D at 16 the sick offensive ability of Roy is great, but the puck is only on a Dman’s stick for seconds each game, so he had, as DSF said, better bring everything or he’ll end up like the never ending list of first round offensive D men that never panned out. Id want the scouting reports to say things like great positionally and highly underrated defensively. Instead they all just talk about his ability WITH the puck and very little talk about his defensive game. They(Redline) also say his coverage is spotty and he doesn’t finish checks. For a D man to go at 16 he has to bring the whole package. Otherwise the risk is too high IMO. I still say trade that pick to highest bidder and bring in a 23-28 yr old #1-3 dman. If possible. There are #1 dmen out there that are obtainable the 16th pick(Phaneuf?) and may even be considered a bad trade because of their contract.
    Woodguy,

  116. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: I’m wondering why bobs list has him at 29.

    Did the scouts figure the injuries into their ranking?
    Size? He is not overly big.
    Skating? Some scouts say very good. Some say he is not fast and will need to work on it. Again did injuries affect him here.
    Shot? Likes to use the wrister from the point. Meh slapper. Again is this because of wrist injury?

    He is ranked from 14th or is it 11th to the start of the second round.

    Putting up 43 points in 46 games ( on my phone, think that’s right) in an injury plagued season on a meh team is outstanding. Puck skills, IQ, wanting to be a difference maker are top notch.

    But I do have concern on why some scouts have in the late first/second round.

    I’d be happy with him at 16, but I’m not sure he will be BPA or even bda at that point.

    Maybe because of this (from RLR):

    Defensive zone coverage can be spotty – often in the right place, but
    not aggressive enough in moving or tying up his check.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Kmart99,

    he’ll end up like the never ending list of first round offensive D men that never panned out.

    Can you show me this list?

    Maybe we can find a common issue.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Jeremy Roy:

    From McKeen’s 2015 NHL Draft Guide…

    A mature, cerebral defender who sees the ice remark- ably well and can locate his teammates with crisp, cross-ice passes, initiating a breakout .. highly-skilled puckhandler with soft hands .. an effective quarterback on the power play .. skating is decent – stride lacks elite power and doesn’t generate burst during acceleration phase .. unafraid to make the simple play or the flashy play, when needed .. possesses off the charts hockey sense with the ability to control the play .. what separates him is his ability to make plays with the puck at his top speed with hands that operate quicker than his feet .. not very physical, his anticipation serves him well in all three zones – always positionally sound with solid stickwork providing an advantage .. can play either side defensively, adding to his value and versatility

    From Future Considerations’ 2015 Draft Guide…

    Roy is a pretty pure offensive defenseman. He shows great poise and composure when opposing forwards forecheck. He is effective, shows great vision and passing skills when he makes a great outlet pass to begin the breakout. His strength is certainly in his passing. He passes tape-to-tape and hits teammates in stride. He likes to rush the puck and does it pretty effectively, but he does struggle a little at top speeds through the neutral zone. He seemed to fumble it a bit at his top speed. He reads the situation well, knowing when to push it more or slow it down to wait for his teammates to join in. He is pretty aggressive with his pinches, and creates loads of offensive opportunity when he makes that gamble. His shot is extremely heavy from the point, but it is typically all power and very little precision, missing the net often… He is not a huge liability defensively, but he does leave a little to be desired back there with regards to his decision-making. The biggest thing is his inability to play a two-on-one correctly. He often gets caught in the middle of playing the pass or going for the puck carrier, showing indecisiveness. That usually results in a good scoring chance for the opposition.

    From RLR:

    This kid’s got a real “It” factor. For Red Line’s money, is the
    best pure offensive d-man in the draft. Showed great character
    playing through a broken wrist and sprained knee, yet still put up 43
    points in 46 games. Makes rocket passes up the middle – long leads
    that hit forwards right in stride and lead to dangerous chances. Loves
    to handle the puck, and has the ability to carry it out of the zone by
    himself under pressure, and even lead the break. Jumps up on offence,
    but usually only at the right times. Outstanding command of the blue
    line on the PP. Distributes the puck well and also gets pucks to net
    with a strong shot. Very polished with excellent poise and vision. Dynamic
    player both on the power play and at even strength in transition.
    Defensive zone coverage can be spotty – often in the right place, but
    not aggressive enough in moving or tying up his check.
    Projection: Smart, competitive #1-2 d-man & PP quarterback.

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