LET’S SEE ACTION!

The time has come for action. The NHL doesn’t like news to break during the SC playoffs (unless it’s from Glendale, they love that stuff at the head office) so teams put aside their trades until things have wrapped up—and that could be tonight! It’s fair to expect a transaction from the Oilers this week, even if it’s some RFA addition or yet another Russian defenseman whose turns are timed by sundial. Either way, a re-set seems in order.

CHIARELLI’S LIST

  1. Draft McDavid (and sign him)
  2. Find a quality goalie option
  3. Acquire a legit partner for Fayne
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F
  5. Procure a veteran Pisani
  6. Ignore MacT re: Marincin
  7. Offload Gordon (unless McLellan decides to use a shut down, severe ZS line)

This gets us here:

  • Hall—McDavid—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Justin Williams
  • Draisaitl—Soderberg—Purcell
  • Hendricks—Lander—Klinkhammer
  • Greene—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Marincin—Ference/Nikitin
  • Talbot—Scrivens

The trading of Gordon for Soderberg allows Todd McLellan to run (wait for it!) three scoring lines and gives a mentor for Leon Draisaitl. I haven’t included Nail Yakupov because I’m not certain he’ll be here in the fall. Edmonton’s youthful nine will include Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and I suspect that’ll do for the wobbly portion of the group. I’ve added veterans Williams, Soderberg, Greene and Talbot, your mileage may vary and you might like some of the UFA blue added to this group.

ufa 15 blue

Someone asked me to add Zbynek Michalek yesterday, these are his Arizona numbers and they look fine. He’s more of a stay-at-home type but also a RH player, so the right side (Michalek, Fayne, Schultz) would line up nicely (with Klefbom, Marincin, Nurse) with the less experienced port side. I still think Nurse makes this team, even if the IR begins the season drunk with veterans.

LOWETIDE TOP 30, 2015

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) The best Sabre since Hasek? Perreault?
  3. (3) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) He’s a pinball wizard.
  4. (4) D Noah Hanifin, BC (NCAA) Five years from now, some teams will kick themselves unconscious.
  5. (5) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) Same scoring rates as Tavares.
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Russian Coffey.
  7. (8) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Faantastic Finn will have an impact.
  8. (7) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Ridiculous skill, impact prospect.
  9. (9) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Overlooked but not undervalued.
  10. (10) R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) A growing buzz on the big Russian. невероятный.
  11. (11) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) A real straight shooter, a sniper’s future.
  12. (14) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) He’s a splendid talent, obscured by injury.
  13. (13) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Impressive player, range of skills. Modern Bobby Clarke.
  14. (12) R Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Memorial Cup showcase impressed everyone.
  15. (15) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) A steal where he’ll go.
  16. (16) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big, physical center with average offense. Solid U18’s.
  17. (17) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Power forward with some offensive skills.
  18. (18) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Smart two-way forward.
  19. (27) C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SHL) Skill C with size, speed. Good range.
  20. (20) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Quality scoring prospect. Impressive player.
  21. (19) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center, skilled.
  22. (21) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Two-way D, solid offense.
  23. (24) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) He won’t last long. Impressive range.
  24. (25) F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) Fine skater, two-way player.
  25. (26) R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Quick, skilled first-shot scorer
  26. (23) R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Skating, skill are his calling card.
  27. (22) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) Death or glory pick, would love to see him as an Oiler.
  28. (28) R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Terrific speed, no fear. Skilled.
  29. (29) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) Undersized, mobile defender. Worth a first rounder.
  30. (30) C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills

 

I think the Oilers get two of these names, not three. That pick at No. 16 (Svechnikov, Roy) or the No. 33 selection (Eriksson Ek, Dermott) will be used but there’s a good chance one of those selections is heading out of town. I’d prefer a veteran defenseman coming back, suspect it’s Talbot. If it’s the No. 16 pick, it could be a bigger deal involving something else, if it’s No. 33 it could be straight up and if it’s No. 57 there might be a 2016 draft selection also heading out of town. That’s my guess, anyway. The first half of this draft is music, if the Oilers can get McDavid plus another player in the top 15, this draft should be a monster five years from today.

OILERS CURRENT 50-MAN (38)

  1. G Ben Scrivens (suspect he’ll return in a backup role)
  2. G Laurent Brossoit (AHL starter and plenty of opportunity to move up)
  3. G Eetu Laurikainen (new hire)
  4. D Nikita Nikitin (No. 1 candidate for buy out to my eye)
  5. D Mark Fayne (One of the few names the new coach can count on)
  6. D Andrew Ference (5-6-7D likely role for coming season)
  7. D Oscar Klefbom (I think McLellan may play him in lesser role, that would be ideal)
  8. D Darnell Nurse (I don’t see a way to keep him off the big club in 15-16)
  9. D Brad Hunt (He’ll see NHL time)
  10. D Jordan Oesterle (Oilweb had a feature on him training hard this summer. Oil love that stuff)
  11. D Dillon Simpson (It’ll be fun to see how much he improves in year two)
  12. D David Musil (Chiarelli employed Adam McQuaid. Musil will be fine)
  13. D Ben Betker (May need to spend some time in the ECHL if it gets crowded)
  14. D Joey Laleggia (Can learn plenty from Hunt and Oesterle in Bakersfield)
  15. D Martin Gernat (I don’t know if Chiarelli knows him, forgotten man)
  16. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (All this fuss and Nuge just waiting to be brilliant)
  17. C Anton Lander (Important player for 15-16)
  18. C Boyd Gordon (veteran could be trade bait by deadline if things break right)
  19. C Leon Draisaitl (Man amongst boys in Memorial Cup)
  20. C Bogdan Yakimov (Shoulder aside, strong season)
  21. C Jujhar Khaira (Solid checker, offense may keep him from NHL career)
  22. C Travis Ewanyk (Not enough offense, we knew it draft day)
  23. C Kyle Platzer (newly signed) (Suspect he’ll play in Bakersfield next season)
  24. L Taylor Hall (Fantastic WHC’s saved a poor season by his standards)
  25. L Benoit Pouliot (A rugged winger with skill, brilliant hire by MacT)
  26. L Matt Hendricks (Had a wonderful year, can he do it again?)
  27. L Luke Gazdic (His roster spot could be vulnerable)
  28. L Ryan Hamilton (he’ll be the veteran hand in the  minors helping to guide the kids)
  29. L Anton Slepyshev (I ranked him No. 8 in my latest top 20)
  30. L Mitch Moroz (Will need to spike in a lot of areas next year)
  31. L Kale Kessy (He looked like he’d taken a step forward before injury)
  32. R Jordan Eberle (Fun watching him score at the WHC’s)
  33. R Nail Yakupov  (I have absolutely no idea how this will go)
  34. R Teddy Purcell (I think he’ll be back, speed only real issue)
  35. R Rob Klinkhammer (Signed for next season, may have competition for his job)
  36. R Iiro Pakarinen (I think he is going to make the team and have an impact)
  37. R Andrew Miller (A strong option for NHL time in 2015-16)
  38. R Greg Chase (I’m still bewildered by his draft number)

Connor McDavid, the new starting goalie and at least one defender will be added to the group but there’s miles of room for Edmonton. If we assume Chiarelli—a veteran GM—will want to have some room (say 47 names with only one slide rule in CMD), there should be six more players coming in this summer. Plenty of work to do and the ratio (3G, 12D, 8C, 8L, 7R) suggests we anticipate additions on defense and RW.

Derek Roy (UFA), college man John McCarron and distant Russian bell Daniil Zharkov are on the radar but the blips are fading in some or all cases. Among the RFA’s, I think Justin Schultz, Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson and Tyler Pitlick all have a chance to be signed but it would be foolish to believe all will return to Edmonton. Among the RFA’s who are likely on the outside looking in, count Tyler Bunz, Keith Aulie, Kellen Lain, Matt Fraser and Curtis Hamilton as having no fixed address by the time free agency hits.

  • No. 39 C Connor McDavid
  • No. 40 G Cam Talbot
  • No. 41 D Zbynek Michalek
  • No. 42 D Justin Schultz
  • No. 43 D Martin Marincin
  • No. 44 D Brandon Davidson
  • No. 45 R Tyler Pitlick

And of course there will be deletions via trade and we can talk about that in the coming week. Anyone getting squeezed without merit? Think Matt Fraser belongs? Pitlick shouldn’t be there? I suspect the Oilers are having these conversations now and the big issues are:

  • Does Connor McDavid flourish with Hall-Eberle or does the club need to add Justin Williams?
  • Who is going to play goal?
  • What can be done about the elevator shaft known as Oilers blue?
  • Why do the Oilers hate Martin Marincin?

We wait, but not for long.

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190 Responses to "LET’S SEE ACTION!"

  1. mujidog says:

    The NY Rangers don’t pick until late in round 3 (#89). They’re going to do something to get a pick(s).

  2. Woodguy says:

    If something real doesn’t happen soon I’m going to get in a fist fight with Gmoney because my narratives will just get worse and worse and the info i present more and more cooked for my purposes just out of boredom.

    Also for my brother DSF.

    Freidman has Calgary out both the Kessel and Nash sweepstakes.

    BUF apparently is hot and heavy after Nash.

  3. frjohnk says:

    Rondo:
    Kyle Woodlief of Red Line ReportTop 10 D- men in thedraft.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/woodlief/2015/06/15/nhl-draft-defensemen-prospects-noah-hanifin-ivan-provorov/71243112/

    Jeremy Roy is 3rd.

    I was lukewarm on him before.

    Not anymore. I like him. If he was healthy all year, he may have scored 70 to 80 points.

    Compared to Kris Letang and Dan Boyle.

    My second favorite D man ( that we could pick) is Nicolas Meloche. He is 6th ranked D man.
    Hope he slides but I think he is gone early 2nd round.

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m a big fan of Leon, but can we please stop penciling him onto the team? Do we really think half a season of junior hockey made such an impact on his game that he needs to be in this lineup opening night?

    Leon in January taking over for a $1million Derek Roy is fine by me. Please no Leon or Darnell in October. PLEASE.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    Kulikov. The Oilers need to get Kulikov to play with Fayne.

  6. Halfwise says:

    Thought for a moment the thread was titled “Let’s see Acton”

    I’m fine now.

  7. dustrock says:

    frjohnk: Jeremy Roy is 3rd.I was lukewarm on him before.Not anymore. I like him. If he was healthy all year, he may have scored 70 to 80 points.Compared to Kris Letang and Dan Boyle.My second favorite D man ( that we could pick) is Nicolas Meloche. He is 6th ranked D man.Hope he slides but I think he is gone early 2nd round.

    There’s a few interesting D-men who could be good projects.

    I like Thomas Schemitsch even in the 3rd, anywhere after that and it’s a steal. Stats and scouting reports make him sound a bit like a poor man’s Darnell Nurse.

  8. dustrock says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m a big fan of Leon, but can we please stop penciling him onto the team? Do we really think half a season of junior hockey made such an impact on his game that he needs to be in this lineup opening night?Leon in January taking over for a $1million Derek Roy is fine by me. Please no Leon or Darnell in October. PLEASE.

    Leon might make the team if McLellan sits him down in the summer and just has him watch hours upon hours of Thornton running the SJ power play.

  9. monsterbater4 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    i agree with you we shouldn’t pencil them in and hope the team depth is enough to keep them in Bakersfield for the first half of next year, but you aren’t giving enough credit to that additional half year in junior. Great players tend to make a big jump in their draft +1 season in junior as they become the bigger/stronger/faster/more experienced players in that league. Being on a memorial cup finalist team probably did wonders for his confidence, while also allowing a “safer” environment for him to work on the things i am sure the Oilers mentioned he needs to prior to him being sent down.

    Not only does he know what he has to work on, he also has this whole off season to work and train accordingly. He can work on getting strong and work on his initial quickness to be a better player. Couple that with having him play sheltered minutes on the third line wing is a good recipe for moderate success for him and conducive to him challenging for more minutes and a larger role.

  10. dustrock says:

    Rondo: Kyle Woodlief of Red Line Report Top 10 D- men in the draft.http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/woodlief/2015/06/15/nhl-draft-defensemen-prospects-noah-hanifin-ivan-provorov/71243112/

    Meloche at 6th, over Zboril, Kylington, Juulsen, Dunn, Larsson, etc.

    Edit: Meloche is as young as Werenski. July ’97.

  11. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    mujidog:
    The NY Rangers don’t pick until late in round 3 (#89). They’re going to do something to get a pick(s).

    If Slats manages to take his MSL acquisition and swap Talbot for an UPGRADE of his first round pick, they should build a jackal statue on 7th Avenue and 33rd Street.

    Don’t do it, Chia. 2nd rounder at most.

  12. frjohnk says:

    dustrock: Meloche at 6th, over Zboril, Kylington, Juulsen, Dunn, Larsson, etc.

    Edit: Meloche is as young as Werenski. July ’97.

    I like Meloche

    6 foot 3, 205 pounds loves to hit.

    Elite prospects

    A smooth skating defenceman who can put up points, utilizing his strength behind his shot, and plays with an edge. Has very good awareness on the ice, and notices possible scoring chances before they happen. Very intelligent defensively and makes high percentage decisions in his own end. When at the top of his game, Nicolas Meloche can be a game-changing, physical two-way defenceman.

    44 games 10 goals 24 assists 99 PIM.

  13. Hammers says:

    You say we wait so let’s just do that .there is only a couple of weeks to go . My one question to you LT is why get rid of Yak when he has a good contract and if he continues his play like the last 30 games his value goes up . I for one preferred it when you had Schultz in that position . I’m a bit surprised the year we have assets in both picks and players your not talking about your 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 .

  14. Numenius says:

    I may be missing something, but isn’t Soderburg UFA? In that case, there’d be no need to trade Gordon for him (unless you trade for early rights to negotiate, I guess).

  15. Hammers says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: If Slats manages to take his MSL acquisition and swap Talbot for an UPGRADE of his first round pick, they should build a jackal statue on 7th Avenue and 33rd Street.

    Don’t do it, Chia. 2nd rounder at most.

    Agreed. At best the 33 pick but prefer a player from the farm or the late 2nd.

  16. dustrock says:

    Hammers: You say we wait so let’s just do that .there is only a couple of weeks to go . My one question to you LT is why get rid of Yak when he has a good contract and if he continues his play like the last 30 games his value goes up . I for one preferred it when you had Schultz in that position . I’m a bit surprised the year we have assets in both picks and players your not talking about your 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 .

    I think it’s because LT is having a hard time where to place Yakupov. If he’s having problems, are the Oilers having problems too?

    He’s clearly not untouchable, and the Hall-McDavid and RNH-Eberle duos seem relatively set in stone.

    If he was a grinder/forechecker/physical presence, he could ride along and be 3rd forward in on the rush, but you probably don’t want him with McDavid & Hall because that line has no defensive presence.

    Is he good enough on the PP that he should be on PP1?

    He’s on a cheap contract and there is no reason not to have a go with an actual NHL coach running the team, but he does seem like the obvious odd man out.

  17. misfit says:

    I still don’t get why guys like Soderberg and to a lesser degree, Berglund, are considered good two-way players.

    All 3 of Campbell, Kelly, and Bergeron had a higher rate of DZone starts, and he was only slightly ahead of Krejci (0.1%). He also didn’t face a murder’s row from a qualcomp standpoint either.

    Last year he played 3rd tier competition and had the biggest zone start push of all Bruins forwards.

    He played mostly with Kelly and Eriksson both years.

    His possession numbers are solid, so there’s reason to think he could succeed with a heavier workload, but none of his coaches seem to have placed him in a defensive role at this level.

  18. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I wish Eichel the best, but he’ll be in tough to be the best Sabre since Mogilny/Lafontaine! Even Turgeon and Briere would be good company.

    I wanna see BOLD this summer baby!!

  19. Ribs says:

    I don’t think this team is at the point where it can offload Gordon. He’s just too damned useful.

  20. Bar_Qu says:

    Numenius,

    Trade for him before July 1 and then you don’t have to bid against other teams. You get him at the price you want him (or closer than it might be).

    Willis’ article up at ON re-emphasises how the Oilers should pursue Spurgeon from Min. If that is the guy you get, he will be able to help the top 4 especially with a big guy like Fayne or Klefbom. And he won’t cost the moon to acquire, since Min needs to shed the salary. Get it done early before the silly season starts and it could be for the 57th and a prospect like Slepy or even Pitlick.

    Better that than 2 firsts + to offer sheet Hamilton.

  21. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: I like Meloche

    6 foot 3, 205 pounds loves to hit.

    Elite prospects

    A smooth skating defenceman who can put up points, utilizing his strength behind his shot, and plays with an edge. Has very good awareness on the ice, and notices possible scoring chances before they happen. Very intelligent defensively and makes high percentage decisions in his own end. When at the top of his game, Nicolas Meloche can be a game-changing, physical two-way defenceman.

    44 games 10 goals 24 assists 99 PIM.

    IPP of .237 which is very good.

    I you can get a large, good skating Dman who likes to hit with an IPP over .200 you are usually picking in the top 15.

    Crazy that he’d be available in the 2nd round.

    This draft is nuts.

    Love that he’s a July 97 too.

    I’m all over the Oilers picking him w/ 33rd, doubt he lasts until 57.

  22. Jesse says:

    I remain fascinated with Kylington. One part of me is worried that his scouting reports read like a Schultz-esque player. To qualify what I mean by that, is that he has a lot of raw skill but poor decision making skills apparently. I haven’t seen him play, so this is all going off the various scouting reports I’ve read on him. But the other part of me wonders if those decision making skills can be refined and worked on in the AHL for a couple years and if he could be one of those guys that we look back on and go, “How on earth did he fall so far?”

  23. Numenius says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: If Slats manages to take his MSL acquisition and swap Talbot for an UPGRADE of his first round pick, they should build a jackal statue on 7th Avenue and 33rd Street.

    Don’t do it, Chia. 2nd rounder at most.

    One thing that makes me open to trading the 16th for Talbot +, as much as I don’t like it, is to think:

    “If there was a goalie I could pick at 16 this year whom I knew without a doubt would be tracking to be a solid NHL starter 3 years later, I’d probably do it. So then why not trade the 16 for someone who’s right now tracking to be a solid NHL starter?”

  24. monsterbater4 says:

    Ribs:
    I don’t think this team is at the point where it can offload Gordon. He’s just too damned useful.

    I Think LT qualified that by saying if Mclellan doesn’t run a murderous ZS group. If he is giving all lines somewhere in the 45-55% ZS then Gordon’s role at his salary is less useful. Lander would bring similar value in that situation for a fraction of the cost, plus what gordon could bring you is intriguing

  25. stephen sheps says:

    I love that lineup save for one thing – Lander as 4C. It’s been done, and he didn’t exactly flourish in that role in previous years; however after the back half of last season (plus the senior tournament of small sample sizes) we know Lander can play with skill, produce and thrive. The team can still have 3 scoring lines with Lander as the 3C – he’s a younger, cheaper Soderberg, and the 4Mil AAV spent on signing Soderberg can (and should) go elsewhere.

    (I’m not even going to complain about the lack of Yak today – the thought of letting him go really hurts and even if he’s gone I’ll still wear my Yak 10 jersey with bittersweet pride – but you have to give to get)

  26. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Numenius,

    With all due respect to Woodguy’s work, and I know he agrees with me on this, Talbot’s body of work is much too small for me to support giving up a good pick in a once in a decade draft for him. 2nd rounder at most. 16th this year is about the same as 9th in Horvat’s year. Schneider had double the sample size of Talbot and wasn’t in his walk year.

  27. Numenius says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos":
    Numenius,

    With all due respect to Woodguy’s work, and I know he agrees with me on this, Talbot’s body of work is much too small for me to support giving up a good pick in a once in a decade draft for him. 2nd rounder at most. 16th this year is about the same as 9th in Horvat’s year. Schneider had double the sample size of Talbot and wasn’t in his walk year.

    Good point.

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    I’m with LT and a few of the posters: time to see some action: reading narratives and comments speculating about getting rid of roster players like Gordon, Yak, Shultz, Marincin (all who would be on the roster of good teams, albeit used and/or payed differently) on one-sided trades is getting old. You still need to set up a baseline of what is the Oil RE for next season: you can “fantasy-trade GM” this roster into a playoff team in the off-season, but that’s not realistic. (even with CMD really lights out game-changer who scores 80 points: well maybe then they could hope for playoffs…)

  29. dustrock says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos": Numenius, With all due respect to Woodguy’s work, and I know he agrees with me on this, Talbot’s body of work is much too small for me to support giving up a good pick in a once in a decade draft for him. 2nd rounder at most. 16th this year is about the same as 9th in Horvat’s year. Schneider had double the sample size of Talbot and wasn’t in his walk year.

    [Mr. Burns] “Desperate to buy, eh? Advantage: Slats. [/Mr. Burns]

  30. HiddenDarts says:

    dustrock: [Mr. Burns] “Desperate to buy, eh?Advantage: Slats. [/Mr. Burns]

    While this might be partly true, I think it’s fair to say there are other comparable goalies out there, some with many more games played and some who could be picked up for pennies.

    As dark as it seems in the Jackal’s lair, one must always understand that there is light elsewhere.

  31. Ducey says:

    •Hall—McDavid—Eberle
    •Pouliot—Nuge—Justin Williams
    •Draisaitl—Soderberg—Purcell
    •Hendricks—Lander—Klinkhammer
    •Greene—Fayne
    •Klefbom—Schultz
    •Marincin—Ference/Nikitin
    •Talbot—Scrivens

    That isn’t a playoff team. You have 2 rookies up front and a weak defense. The 3rd and 4th lines look putrid. Lander doesn’t need incredibly tough zone starts with muckers. Its unlikely he can handle those minutes the way Gordon has.

    I don’t see Soderberg as much, if any, improvement on Lander for 3C anyway. Lander will be a hell of a lot cheaper.

    Whats the point of bringing in Williams? He will be a big ticket (he is going to want term – especially as he is 33 – turns 34 in October). Williams has a big sign on his forehead saying “In Decline”. He is the type of guy you bring in for a year to win a Cup, not someone who you sign to a 3 or 4 year deal and then watch him become irrelevant as he ages.

    When you figure bringing in Williams also requires turfing Yak, well, its just a bad idea.

  32. Soup Fascist says:

    What a change from a year ago, when a more likely title for an article was “Let’s See Acton”.

    Edit – Man, that Halfwise guy is a comic genius. I gotta learn to read comments section before posting.

    I agree that we will probably see Nurse early this season if Chiarelli does not obtain at least TWO bonafide NHL D-men in the off-season. Not because Nurse is so far ahead of the curve in his development, but because he will be so much better than the bottom 2 or 3 guys that will be here. Unless, the seas part I, just don’t see improvement from 21 and 86 and I also don’t see the new braintrust starting the year with both turnstiles in the lineup.

    Unless you can move one of these guys with a pick – that means buyout. Painful, but I think that has to happen.

  33. blainer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I’m a big fan of Leon, but can we please stop penciling him onto the team?Do we really think half a season of junior hockey made such an impact on his game that he needs to be in this lineup opening night?

    Leon in January taking over for a $1million Derek Roy is fine by me.Please no Leon or Darnell in October.PLEASE.

    My guess.. Leon is getting traded for Hamilton and Shultz +

  34. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey:
    •Hall—McDavid—Eberle
    •Pouliot—Nuge—Justin Williams
    •Draisaitl—Soderberg—Purcell
    •Hendricks—Lander—Klinkhammer
    •Greene—Fayne
    •Klefbom—Schultz
    •Marincin—Ference/Nikitin
    •Talbot—Scrivens

    That isn’t a playoff team.You have 2 rookies up front and a weak defense.The 3rd and 4th lines look putrid.Lander doesn’t need incredibly tough zone starts with muckers.Its unlikely he can handle those minutes the way Gordon has.

    I don’t see Soderberg as much, if any, improvement on Lander for 3C anyway.Lander will be a hell of a lot cheaper.

    Whats the point of bringing in Williams?He will be a big ticket (he is going to want term – especially as he is 33 – turns 34 in October).Williams has a big sign on his forehead saying “In Decline”.He is the type of guy you bring in for a year to win a Cup, not someone who you sign to a 3 or 4 year deal and then watch him become irrelevant as he ages.

    When you figure bringing in Williams also requires turfing Yak, well, its just a bad idea.

    Agreed.

    I don’t like the idea of Hall/McDavid/Eberle because I’m a believer in the Chicago model of building lines (2 elite + 1 complementary on each top 6). We don’t need to add a $6million dollar winger to Hall/McDavid, we need to add their version of Pouliot (who sticks with RNH and Ebs).

    Preferably we could do that for $3million or less. We would then trade that player at the end of their contract because their numbers would be inflated by playing with great skill, thus continuing to cycle in new assets.

    Toews/Hossa + somebody
    Kane/Sharp + somebody

    Oh, Saad is getting really good! Great, trade Sharp….

  35. Captain Smarmy says:

    If Talbot is in fact the best goalie available and he costs the 16th overall. I’d rather go after one of the other goalies that are 90-95% as good and cost a late second.

  36. blainer says:

    Ribs:
    I don’t think this team is at the point where it can offload Gordon. He’s just too damned useful.

    Agreed. We need his faceoff ability especially in the last minute of each period or game and also for the PK. He is also a RT shot center. He isn’t going anywhere.

  37. Henry says:

    Captain Smarmy:
    If Talbot is in fact the best goalie available and he costs the 16th overall. I’d rather go after one of the other goalies that are 90-95% as good and cost a late second.

    Talbot is only really worth anything if Slats signs him for some UFA years first.

  38. frjohnk says:

    Was just a few months ago we were looking at picking
    3rd or 4th
    22nd to 30th.

    Thank you draft lottery.
    Thank you Pens for nose diving since then

  39. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    You say we wait so let’s just do that .there is only a couple of weeks to go . My one question to you LT is why get rid of Yak when he has a good contract and if he continues his play like the last 30 games his value goes up . I for one preferred it when you had Schultz in that position . I’m a bit surprised the year we have assets in both picks and players your not talking about your 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 .

    I think it comes down to Chiarelli and McLellan and how much time they want to spend on the learning curve with Yak (same applies for Mr. Schultz). If they see progress, I’m thrilled for Nail because I really like him as a fan and want him to be here for the good times.

    We’ll see. The contract makes him wildly attractive btw.

  40. OF17 says:

    Yeah, sorry LT, but I don’t see the logic in making both of your two large free-agent signings for the forwards. Is the difference between Lander and Soderberg at 3C bigger than the difference between Nikitin and Mike Green on defense? I’d argue definitely not, and the difference in cap hit will be even bigger for Soderberg-Lander than it will be for Green-Nikitin.

    And then there’s Williams, whose career production pegs him into the “better Teddy Purcell” role, whose offense is declining, and who will be looking to get paid. I don’t want to blow the bank on an old RW, especially when there are other holes to fix.

    I assume Yak goes in the Andy Greene deal. Why are we trading Yak for a 33 year old not named Lidstrom or Chara?

    Sorry to rag on it man, but it just seems nonsensical to me.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock: [Mr. Burns] “Desperate to buy, eh?Advantage: Slats. [/Mr. Burns]

    Slats is also desperate to sell. He’s got one year of Talbot, which is worth what, 20 starts behind Lundqvist, then he walks. If he can cash him for a decent asset now, he will. Not necessarily a first.

    I blame Woodguy for convincing the entire hockey world that Talbot is The Answer to Oilers’ netminding problems, and Lowetide for convin… er, confirming that Sather is a jackal.

  42. speeds says:

    What would your reaction be to a Gardiner for 16OV trade? Fair deal, win for TOR, win for EDM?

  43. verdad2.0 says:

    Can this blog explain why it would ever endorse the Oilers starting this October with any of Schultz, Nikitin or Ference?
    Addition by subtraction.
    The notion that potentially all three could be part of the Oilers in October is cause for Chiarelli’s dismissal.

    No plausible argument any of them play ever again for the Oilers.

    Also, the objective must be to make the playoffs this season. No longer tolerate the ridiculous logic that in 2016-2017 we’ll have more cap space to really “to for it”. This is the insane logic that caused this re-build to last forever.

    The new reality irequired Chiarelli to dispense with some key piece to genuine fix the defence of the Oilerrs. Apart from doing the extreme offer sheet for Hamiltion, the Oilers need to deploy every non MacDavid draft pick into getting functional defensemen, asap. Second, come to terms that one of Hall and Eberle need to be traded for quality on defense.
    More important to have the defence solved at long last before MacDavid ever plays a game in the NHL for the Oilers.

    Last point, forget about trading Goridon. He is a gem. Playoff teams don’t trade players like that. The Oilers should not. To do so just eternailizes the pre-build.

    Lastly, despite the endlesss rapture about this year’s draft, most draft picks fail to work out. So stop over valuing them. Trade when ever possible for functional current day playes.

  44. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    verdad2.0,

    Buyouts aren’t free, and trading them isn’t easy.

  45. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Slats is also desperate to sell. He’s got one year of Talbot, which is worth what, 20 starts behind Lundqvist, then he walks. If he can cash him for a decent asset now, he will. Not necessarily a first.I blame Woodguy for convincing the entire hockey world that Talbot is The Answer to Oilers’ netminding problems, and Lowetide for convin… er, confirming that Sather is a jackal.

    Ha ha, true.

    I think in a vacuum, there’s no way one year of Talbot goes for the #16, but what if Talbot has become the #1 goaltending target for teams needing an upgrade? What if Buffalo gets in on the game?

  46. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: I think it comes down to Chiarelli and McLellan and how much time they want to spend on the learning curve with Yak (same applies for Mr. Schultz). If they see progress, I’m thrilled for Nail because I really like him as a fan and want him to be here for the good times.

    We’ll see. The contract makes him wildly attractive btw.

    Ok, I lied earlier when I said I wouldn’t gripe about yak…

    I agree the contract makes him attractive as a tradable asset, but even more attractive to the team that signed him to that deal (imho).. Because he’s cheap and signed for 2 years, it gives the Oilers far more room (financially at least) to see what they truly have in him. I know you don’t hate Yak, and really, who can hate the kid, he’s a joy to watch, even with his mistakes and has the best attitude in the league.

    I just wonder why two older hands (Soderberg, Williams) are needed up front? I’m sure it’s been said aaround here a few times, (and I am not trying to be belligerent or a jerk) but at what point do we (the fans) start treating Hall, Eberle and RNH as veterans? Is 250+ NHL games not enough? They don’t need to be sheltered anymore, and quite frankly I think they should be able to provide a bit of shelter for Yak, Leon and Connor without the need to go get a Justin Williams. Depth and balanced rosters are beautiful things, but if giving up a young, cheap but likely ascendant yak to get an admittedly great but older player who is a year or two away from the decline doesn’t seem like responsible cap or asset management, especially if the justification is needing ‘veterans’ to mentor the kids. The veterans are Hall and Eberle now.

    (*sidebar, I love Justin Williams, and the fact that he could have been an Oiler while still in his prime and instead POS happened is one of the all time great blunders in Oiler history – I don’t know the mechanics of 3 team trades, but Cole went back to CAR, Williams went to LA and somehow the Oilers got nothing but crap still makes no sense to me.)

  47. Bruce McCurdy says:

    verdad2.0: No plausible argument any of them play ever again for the Oilers.

    You might not find it plausible that a young defenceman who has just hit the 200-game mark might continue to improve into an NHL-calibre offensive defenceman, but some might.

    You might not find it plausible that a veteran defenceman with time left on an expensive/untradeable contract might be more useful to the team playing than not playing, but some might.

  48. monsterbater4 says:

    speeds:
    What would your reaction be to a Gardiner for 16OV trade? Fair deal, win for TOR, win for EDM?

    i would burn my oilers jersey.

    Don’t get me wrong, i like gardiner but he is in a similar mould to schultz. he is probably a #4 defencemen moving forward but certainly isn’t worth #16, especially given how down on him a lot of leafs nation is.

  49. Lowetide says:

    One of the things we have to come to grips with is the following: Hall and Ebs, God love them, in no way represent ‘veteran two-way presence’ and are unlikely to in the future. Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t help—Hall pushes the river, has since a pup—but there is value in having a veteran two-way F on the line that houses McDavid.

    As for Soderberg over Gordon, that’s an effort to add offense. If the Oilers use Gordon in a more traditional role, he won’t deliver enough offense imo.

    those are very specific reasons for Williams and Soderberg. I understand the idea of ‘leave the forwards alone’ and that has merit. My own belief is this: Gordon in a new role is going to reduce his value entering his trade window and the Oilers aren’t going to win one damn thing until the bring back a Pisani.

    Since they brought in Ryan Jones, the Oilers have been running more offensive players and cheating on the two-way types. Pisani, Reasoner, Horcoff, those guys.

    Need them back, badly.

  50. slopitch says:

    There you go trading Yak for Greene again. Please no! 🙂

  51. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide:
    One of the things we have to come to grips with is the following: Hall and Ebs, God love them, in no way represent ‘veteran two-way presence’ and are unlikely to in the future. Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t help—Hall pushes the river, has since a pup—but there is value in having a veteran two-way F on the line that houses McDavid.

    As for Soderberg over Gordon, that’s an effort to add offense. If the Oilers use Gordon in a more traditional role, he won’t deliver enough offense imo.

    those are very specific reasons for Williams and Soderberg. I understand the idea of ‘leave the forwards alone’ and that has merit. My own belief is this: Gordon in a new role is going to reduce his value entering his trade window and the Oilers aren’t going to win one damn thing until the bring back a Pisani.

    Since they brought in Ryan Jones, the Oilers have been running more offensive players and cheating on the two-way types. Pisani, Reasoner, Horcoff, those guys.

    Need them back, badly.

    Don’t you think Teddy Purcell was brought in to the play the Pisani role?

  52. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    There you go trading Yak for Greene again. Please no! :)

    You may choose another, or not trade Yakupov at all! I’m saying that one of the things Chiarelli and McLellan have to look at is the group we can call ‘young players who are bleeding’ and that does in fact include Nail Yakupov. I’m not making this up. Honest.

  53. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: but there is value in having a veteran two-way F on the line that houses McDavid.

    Enter the Pouliot (Benoit, sorry LT).

    He is a corner presence, has speed to keep up and a net-front presence to either create or capitalize on chaos.

    It also means that opposing coaches have to choose which juicy steak to send their best D after, Hall or McDavid. Can’t have them both. It may mean putting the band back together in Hall, Hopkins, Eberle, but the other thing we need to accept is that until the forward lines are more evenly balanced the top six will show fluidity and rotation depending on circumstances.

    That isn’t a bad thing. Recall how many nights it was Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky and lord help us if that line got shut down because it was then up to Hemsky to pull the puck in at the blue line, lower his shoulder and hit that extra gear he always had to fly past the defender and pass the puck around the goalie and into the net.

    You know the move. I’ll probably be able to visualize it until my dying day.

    But if Hemsky couldn’t make it happen, the Oilers lost.

    Now, if Hall-Hopkins-Eberle gets shut down they still have to worry about Yakupov, Pouliot, McDavid, Purcell, eventually Draisaitl, sometimes Justin Schultz (for all his warts) and whomever else they manage to add during the off-season.

  54. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    fair enough on the veteran ‘two-way’ side of things – the Oilers certainly need someone in that role to help CMD (Pouliot?) and you’ll get no argument from me about hiring a new Fernando. However I have to admit that I see a disconnect between your proposed lineups (which includes 3 scoring lines and a unicorn) and your rationale for flushing ‘yak’ or other young cheap potential high-end scoring F. Something doesn’t quite fit.

    (I also am inclined to believe that Hall, with the right coaching and the right amount of buy-in has the skill, speed and tenacity to be a demon back-checker…)

    Like I said in my first reply to you, I love Williams and truthfully I would be thrilled if the Oilers get him. I just don’t see the need or the budget for both Williams and Soderberg, however. Lander is basically Soderberg, but younger and costs 3mil/yr. less.

  55. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Don’t you think Teddy Purcell was brought in to the play the Pisani role?

    Purcell is a fine player and I’m not trying to be a jerk here, I like him. I don’t think he keeps up with McDavid, now or at any time in the future.

  56. dustrock says:

    There is some wisdom in separating Hall and McDavid, but when we watched Pavel Bure, didn’t we all wish he could have been cloned and playing on a line with himself?

  57. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy:
    If something real doesn’t happen soon I’m going to get in a fist fight with Gmoney because my narratives will just get worse and worse and the info i present more and more cooked for my purposes just out of boredom.

    Also for my brother DSF.

    Freidman has Calgary out both the Kessel and Nash sweepstakes.

    BUF apparently is hot and heavy after Nash.

    Yeah, saw that.

    I still think NJ is a likely landing spot for Kessel although the Devils are apparently not on his 8 team list.

    Another distinct possibility is Florida where Kessel lives in the offseason.

    The Panthers have $17M in free cap space with only a couple of RFAs needing new contracts.

    They could easily absorb Kessel’s cap hit if Toronto retains some salary and, of course Florida has a ridiculously deep prospect pool.

    However, Tallon, with his ties to the Blackhawks, may opt instead to take Patrick Sharp off their hands if they add a little sugar.

  58. striatic says:

    stephen sheps: (I also am inclined to believe that Hall, with the right coaching and the right amount of buy-in has the skill, speed and tenacity to be a demon back-checker…)

    He’s been doing more and more of this as the years go on.

    Hall has enough speed that he can can leave the d-zone a little later and still gain the o-zone in a good position with support. His previous method was to blow by a defender and end up behind the d with the puck but also on the periphery with no support.

    I’m convinced that he’s just as effective an offensive player when he plays his 2 way game. Or at least maintains 90% of his offensive threat.

  59. rickithebear says:

    rickithebear says:
    June 15, 2015 at 10:26 am

    I have not Established the age based NHLE for UA -High; Czech JR; Slovakia JR; combine Invites.
    USHL Equvalent has been all over the board .86 to 1.15 of CHL. I choose 1.0 cause it was in the middlwe and allows anyone to X by there Equevilemcy to adjust the USHL numbers.

    Age based NHLE Combine invite forwards
    Player- Even NHLE – Total NHLE – EVG NHLE
    Mcdavid – 80 – 121 – 36
    Marner – 72 – 124 – 28
    Eichel – 70 – 112 – 30
    ———————————– top 5 EVp top 5 EVG
    Strome – 61 – 99 – 23
    ———————————- top 5 EVP top 15 EVG
    Roslavic – 63 – 74 – 16
    ———————————-Top 5 EVP top 75 EVG
    Konecny- 47 – 63 – 24
    Fisher – 47 – 56 – 23
    Bracco – 46 – 61 – 25
    ——————————–Top 30 EVP top 15 EVG
    S. AHO – 48 – XX – 17
    ——————————-Top 30 EVP top 60 EVG
    Foley – 44 – 56 – 20
    GUrianov – 41 – XX – 21
    —————————— top 45 EVP Top 30 EVG
    Speers – 42 – 71 – 15 low EVG
    ——————————- Top 45 EVP top 90
    Barzal – 45 – 71 – 13
    Harkins – 42 – 62 – 13 low EVG
    ——————————- Top 45 EVP Top 150 EVG
    Crouse – 39 – 72 – 24
    P.Suter – 38 – 46 – 23
    ——————————-Top 60 EVP Top 15 EVG
    Beauvillier – 40 – 78 – 22
    Connar – 40 – 66 – 22
    Zacha – 39 – 59 – 21
    Yan – 39 – 59 – 21
    Chlapik – 39 – 65 – 20
    J. Gabrielle – 39 – 47 – 20
    ——————————Top 60EVP Top 30 EVG
    Bittner – 40 – 53 – 19
    Svechnikov – 40 – 62 – 18
    —————————–Top 60 EVP Top 30 EVG
    Connar Garland – 39 – 62 – 16
    Cooper Marody – 39 – 51 – 16
    —————————–Top 60 EVP Top 75 EVG
    Trenin – 40 – 55 – 10
    ————————— Top 60 EVp top 180 EVG
    Senyshyn – 37 – 43 – 23
    ————————– TOP 75 EVP Top 15 EVG
    Kovacs – 38 – 42 – 21
    Korostelev – 37 – 51 – 20
    ————————-Top 75 EVP Top 30 EVG
    T. Meier – 38 – 63 – 15
    ————————-TOP 75 EVP Top 90 EVG
    Jens Looke – 36 – XX – 21
    A. Richard – 35 – 63 – 21
    Debrusk – 35 – 53 – 20
    ———————– Top 90 EVP top 30 EVG
    Sprong – 35 – 66 – 17
    ———————- Top 90 Top 60
    Cirelli – 36 – 36 – 14
    ——————— Top 90 top 120
    Ericksson EK – 34 – XX – 22
    G Gagne – 34 – 46 – 20
    A. MArsh – 32 – 44 – 20
    —————————-Top 120 EVP top 30 EVG
    Soy – 34 – 51 – 17
    —————————-Top 120 EVP top
    Stenlund – 34 – 38 – 15
    M. Stephens – 33 – 42 – 15
    Mangiapane – 33- 57 – 15
    Aleksi Saarela – 31 – XX – 15
    Jonne Tammela – 31 – xx – 15
    ————————— Top 120 EVP top 90 EVG
    N. Noel – 33 – 53 – 14
    Dergachyov – 34 – 39 – 13
    Forsbacka Karllsson – 33 – 42 – 13
    F. Ahl – 34 – 57 – 13
    ————————– Top 120 EVP Top 120 EVG

    any one belowshow signs of struggle to be a top 6 EVen Foward
    Rantannen – 34 – xx – 11
    Merkley – 32 – 67 – 11
    Greenway – 31 – 40 – 9

    It iss an amazing draft.
    It is like 3-4 draft worth of depth in one.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Purcell is a fine player and I’m not trying to be a jerk here, I like him. I don’t think he keeps up with McDavid, now or at any time in the future.

    Purcell and Pisani are in no way similar, in my mind.

    Pisani was a 3rd line, PK presence with good wheels but limited scoring that came alive during one post season.

    Purcell is more of a soft-parade scoring presence who excels on the PP. He’s a bargain-bin Stempniak (and I say that in the sense that Stempniak is a far more well-rounded player) being paid top-six dollars.

  61. malinpaul says:

    I happen to think Yak is going to step it up this year.

  62. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Purcell is a fine player and I’m not trying to be a jerk here, I like him. I don’t think he keeps up with McDavid, now or at any time in the future.

    Agree on that point but I don’t think a 34 year old Justin Williams on an expensive retirement contract is the answer.

  63. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    There is some wisdom in separating Hall and McDavid, but when we watched Pavel Bure, didn’t we all wish he could have been cloned and playing on a line with himself?

    No. It will be impossible to hide McDavid. Hall creates space (and thus protection) for anyone he plays with. And the Oilers need a responsible two-way veteran on the right side.

    Protect McDavid offensively with Hall, and defensively with a vet two-way RW.

  64. rickithebear says:

    Ranked By even Goals
    Mcdavid 36
    Eichel 30
    Marner 28
    ———————– top 5 EVG
    Bracco 25
    Konecny 24
    Crouse 24
    Strome 23
    Fishwer 23
    Senyshyn 23
    Suter 23
    ——————— Top 15 EVg
    Beauvillier 22
    Connar 22
    Zacha 22
    Ericksson EK 22
    Gurianov 21
    Yan 21
    Kovacs 21
    Looke 21
    Richard 21
    Foley 20
    Chlapik 20
    Babrielle 20
    Korostelev 20
    Debrusk 20
    G. Gagne 20
    A. MArsh 20
    ————————— top 30
    Bittmer 19
    Vejedemo 19
    Svechnikov 18
    ————————— Top 45
    AHO 17
    Sprong 17
    SOY 17
    ————————– Top 60
    Roslocvac 16
    Garland 16
    Marody 16
    ———————— Top 75
    Speers 15
    Meier 15
    Stenlund 15
    Stepehens 15
    Mangiapane 15
    Saarela 15
    Tammela 15
    ————————Top 90
    Cirelli 14
    Noel 14
    Warren 14
    Boeser 14
    Knott 14
    ———————- Top 120
    Barzal 13
    Harkins 13
    Dergachyov 13
    Forsbacka Karlsson 13
    AHL 13
    Gropp 13
    ——————– Top 150

    Hard pressed to be diffence maker in Reg season and Playoffs without top 150 EVG production.

  65. Ducey says:

    verdad2.0:
    Can this blog explain why it would ever endorse the Oilers starting this October with any of Schultz, Nikitin or Ference?
    Addition by subtraction.
    The notion that potentially all three could be part of the Oilers in October is cause for Chiarelli’s dismissal.

    No plausible argument any of them play ever again for the Oilers.

    Also, the objective must be to make the playoffs this season. No longer tolerate the ridiculous logic that in 2016-2017 we’ll have more cap space to really “to for it”.This is the insane logic that caused this re-build to last forever.

    The new reality irequired Chiarelli to dispense with some key piece to genuine fix the defence of the Oilerrs. Apart from doing the extreme offer sheet for Hamiltion, the Oilers need to deploy every non MacDavid draft pick into getting functional defensemen, asap. Second, come to terms that one of Hall and Eberle need to be traded for quality on defense.
    More important to have the defence solved at long last before MacDavid ever plays a game in the NHL for the Oilers.

    Last point, forget about trading Goridon. He is a gem. Playoff teams don’t trade players like that. The Oilers should not. To do so just eternailizes the pre-build.

    Lastly, despite the endlesss rapture about this year’s draft, most draft picks fail to work out. Sostop over valuing them.Trade when ever possible for functional current day playes.

    Wow, so reasonable. Even the NOTION that Schultz, NN and Ference would be on the team would result in the new GM’s dismissal.

    Who is the new GM then? Do you think you will have him in place for the draft?

    I think its very likely all three of those guys will be in Oiler’s silks come September.

    Schultz because you don’t give up on 25 yr old skilled D men with just barely 200 NHL games

    Ference, because he has a NMC and buying him out will ding the cap 4 years.

    NN because if they are lucky they only keep him 60 games and then flip him at the deadline. The alternative is to have his cap hit for 2 years.

    Next year NN is gone, Ference can be bought out and they will know whether Schultz is a fit under the new regime.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Agree on that point but I don’t think a 34 year old Justin Williams on an expensive retirement contract is the answer.

    I must have missed the post where I said ‘sign Justin Williams to an expensive retirement contract’

  67. Jon K says:

    malinpaul:
    I happen to think Yak is going to step it up this year.

    I can’t help but feel that Yak has played his last game as an Oiler.

    He and Draisaitl stand out as the main trading chips at Chiarelli’s disposal to improve the defense.

    Of the two, Draisaitl definitely strikes me as being more of a Chiarelli player.

    Nashville is deep on D but weak on offense and wingers.

  68. wordbird says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    So #33 plus a warm body equals Talbot (plus a lesser pick)?

  69. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: Purcell and Pisani are in no way similar, in my mind.

    Pisani was a 3rd line, PK presence with good wheels but limited scoring that came alive during one post season.

    Purcell is more of a soft-parade scoring presence who excels on the PP. He’s a bargain-bin Stempniak (and I say that in the sense that Stempniak is a far more well-rounded player) being paid top-six dollars.

    I would disagree with Purcell being a soft parade player. At least that’s not how he was used. His QofC (rel corsi) ranked 4th amongst forwards and he damn near broke even Corsi wise (49.2%).
    He also saw significant time on the PK fwiw. But yeah….dat salary.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Slats is also desperate to sell. He’s got one year of Talbot, which is worth what, 20 starts behind Lundqvist, then he walks. If he can cash him for a decent asset now, he will. Not necessarily a first.

    I blame Woodguy for convincing the entire hockey world that Talbot is The Answer to Oilers’ netminding problems, and Lowetide for convin… er, confirming that Sather is a jackal.

    I’ll remember that when he wins the Vezina and Con Smythe in 17/18 when Captain Nugent-Hopkins raises the Cup.

  71. 15w40 says:

    Trade both Purcell and Nikitin – if only one then buy out the other.

    See if you can get Chris Stewart on a value deal.

    If you are trading YAK then hopefully its for somebody like Adam Larsson where they are the main pieces of a potentially larger deal. Jultz may go the other way and be their offensive dman. He may have better luck away from the fish bowl.

    I would run like this:

    •Hall—RNH—Stewart
    •Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
    •Lander—Elias—Pitlick
    •Hendricks—Gordon—Pakarinen
    •Chara—Fayne
    •Klefbom—Larsson
    •Marincin—Ference
    •Talbot—Scrivens

    Elias and Gordon get traded at deadline for picks. Lander slides to middle and either Draisaitl or Yakumov comes up at that point. The RNH line can go head to head with other top lines or you can run either the Elias line or the Gordon line out as shutdown. The Elias line should still be able to provide some offence.

  72. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: I must have missed the post where I said ‘sign Justin Williams to an expensive retirement contract’

    How else do you think he can be acquired?

    If he’s willing to sign a short, cheap deal, Lombardi will just keep him.

  73. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I must have missed the post where I said ‘sign Justin Williams to an expensive retirement contract’

    That’s what it will take.

    He is in demand. Other teams can offer a chance at a Cup, or going to work in flip flops. EDM will have go 3 or 4 years at $3.5 M per.

    He is soon to be 34 and has a lot of miles on his body.

    The Oilers will be paying to watch him decline.

  74. monsterbater4 says:

    rickithebear:
    Ranked By even GoalsMcdavid 36Eichel 30Marner 28———————– top 5 EVGBracco 25Konecny 24Crouse 24Strome 23Fishwer 23Senyshyn 23Suter 23——————— Top 15 EVgBeauvillier 22Connar 22Zacha 22Ericksson EK 22Gurianov 21Yan 21Kovacs 21Looke 21Richard 21Foley 20Chlapik 20Babrielle 20Korostelev 20Debrusk 20G. Gagne 20A. MArsh 20————————— top 30Bittmer 19Vejedemo 19Svechnikov 18————————— Top 45AHO 17Sprong 17SOY 17————————– Top 60Roslocvac 16Garland 16Marody 16———————— Top 75Speers 15Meier 15Stenlund 15Stepehens 15Mangiapane 15Saarela 15Tammela 15————————Top 90Cirelli 14Noel 14Warren 14Boeser 14Knott 14———————- Top 120Barzal 13Harkins 13Dergachyov 13Forsbacka Karlsson 13AHL 13Gropp 13——————– Top 150

    Hard pressed to be diffence maker in Reg season and Playoffs without top 150 EVG production.

    I have no idea what the point you’re trying to make is, but those NHLE numbers look incredibly faulty. Especially since McDavid’s should be the highest

  75. Woodguy says:

    Captain Smarmy:
    If Talbot is in fact the best goalie available and he costs the 16th overall. I’d rather go after one of the other goalies that are 90-95% as good and cost a late second.

    Agreed.

    I like Lack for the 57th a lot.

  76. p3rsonman says:

    We should probably hope Chiarelli ignores MacT re: Schultz as well. And Nikitin.

  77. PDL says:

    Does anyone know what has happened to PRV as a player? I do not recall at all his 2010-2011 season with the Oilers where he went 15-19-34 in 80 games. But that seems decent and in the Pisani range. His decline in St. Louis just seems so odd given he had more success here and we were arguably, the more dysfunctional franchise.

    Also, what if Schultz can be a decent two-way winger? Seems like less responsibility for him and maybe hide some flaws in his defensive and passing game.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: How else do you think he can be acquired?

    If he’s willing to sign a short, cheap deal, Lombardi will just keep him.

    Lombardi can’t keep him, he’s in cap hell. Edmonton may have to go higher in terms of salary but a short term deal with a chance to play alongside McDavid will have appeal. Penguins added older players for Crosby, worked pretty well there (although those players had more offense).

  79. AsiaOil says:

    Look I like Yak as much as anyone – but trading him for Kulikov makes a lot of sense. FLA is old as dirt and could use the offense – plus Kulikov isn’t a critical piece. Once that’s in place then you can trade #16 and Shultz for a another nice dman like Ellis at the draft. That pick at that time will likely never have a greater value than on the draft floor and we’d be stupid to pass up the opportunity to trade a lottery ticket and a flawed player for another solid dman. With those two moves the defense is largely fixed and we can wait out the Nikitin and Ference contracts. Let Nurse spend half a season in the AHL getting experience and bring him up for good when we trade Nikitin.

    Kulikov Fayne (tough minutes)
    Klef Ellis (offensive push)
    Marincin Nikitin (soft parade)
    Ference

    Give OTT the Montreal picks (2 & 3) for Anderson.

    Anderson / Scrivens

    Finally sign Stewart for the CMD RW and go to training camp

    Hall RNH Eberle
    Pouliot CMD Stewart
    Drai Lander Purcell
    Hendricks Gordon Klink
    Pak/Pit

  80. slopitch says:

    Lowetide: You may choose another, or not trade Yakupov at all! I’m saying that one of the things Chiarelli and McLellan have to look at is the group we can call ‘young players who are bleeding’ and that does in fact include Nail Yakupov. I’m not making this up. Honest.

    Yak is 21. Greene is 32. Seguin scored 106 pts in his draft year. Yak did that in his draft -1 year. Chirelli knows his biggest mistake of his career. Surely he’ll try to avoid it. That being said, if you can shop in the 22-26 age group and get a top pairing dman I’ll understand. I can see Boston being interested, they struggled to score goals and are at the cap. With egos involved I can see it getting fun. But its Hamilton or hang up.

    Speaking of Boston. Id have time for Marchand. He’s a good 2 way guy and the Oilers could use some more dickheads to distract the other team from the skill.

  81. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Listen to the mocking bird – HEY!

    Follow

    Mark SpectorVerified account
    ‏@SportsnetSpec
    #Oilers to retain analytics consultant Tyler Dellow. Will work under management in 2015-16, less contact with coaching staff, post-Eakins.

  82. dustrock says:

    Man, keep looking at Jeremy Bracco and wondering if he’ll be the next MSL.

  83. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Lombardi can’t keep him, he’s in cap hell. Edmonton may have to go higher in terms of salary but a short term deal with a chance to play alongside McDavid will have appeal. Penguins added older players for Crosby, worked pretty well there (although those players had more offense).

    I know you’re not one to under rate Lombardi but he will find a way to move Richards contract, Stoll is done, and he has 3 players on ELCs, Michael Mersch, Jordan Weal and Adrian Kempe who just killed it on the way to a Calder Cup championship.

    If he can move Richards, he’ll be fine.

  84. thejonrmcleod says:

    I wonder if Lander is wasted on the fourth line. He’s shown that he can play with skill players. I wonder if Soderberg is an unnecessary luxury.

  85. Woogie63 says:

    How much cheaper does Talbot get his we take Boyle?

    Boyle has been a great pro and has played the game we want out of Shultz, one more year on his contract ….. And we get our goalie.

  86. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Agreed.

    I like Lack for the 57th a lot.

    Bufalo will get there long before 57.

    They have 31 and 51 to work with.

  87. Woogie63 says:

    Is there a different role we could construct for Ference. i really like the individual and the quality of pro athlete he is, but his game is at the 6/7 level.

    His cap hit is hard, but could we get more out of him than just having him in the pressbox night after night.

    Does he have an interest in player development? Can a player be on the NHL roster, but act as a coach for the AHL or ECHL. Bakersfield is a 2 hour flight, it might offer more player availablity/flexibility?

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I wonder if Lander is wasted on the fourth line. He’s shown that he can play with skill players. I wonder if Soderberg is an unnecessary luxury.

    I don’t mind Lander as a 3C. He showed last year he’s better suited to being in the regular rotation, with enough offence to play with skill and enough grit and grind to actually complement said skill.

  89. Pouzar says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I wonder if Lander is wasted on the fourth line. He’s shown that he can play with skill players. I wonder if Soderberg is an unnecessary luxury.

    This is where I am as well. We need D.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I know you’re not one to under rate Lombardi but he will find a way to move Richards contract, Stoll is done, and he has 3 players on ELCs, Michael Mersch, Jordan Weal and Adrian Kempe who just killed it on the way to a Calder Cup championship.

    If he can move Richards, he’ll be fine.

    I think he’ll find a way with Richards but the blue needs attention. Agree Lombardi is not a man to underestimate.

  91. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I wonder if Lander is wasted on the fourth line. He’s shown that he can play with skill players. I wonder if Soderberg is an unnecessary luxury.

    Lander is fine as 3C, but Gordon is a luxury if the Oilers don’t use him as a tough ZS C. If Yakimov had another year’s experience? Maybe. I like Soderberg at C or L, so if Lander is 3C, Soderberg 3L and they can find a Marcel goc/Shawn Horcoff for 4C that’s fine too.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Bufalo will get there long before 57.

    They have 31 and 51 to work with.

    BUF seems to be whale hunting.

    Will be interesting to watch.

  93. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: I think he’ll find a way with Richards but the blue needs attention. Agree Lombardi is not a man to underestimate.

    Lombardi wants to re-sign Sekera and I think he will once he has Richard’s money to play with.

    Doughty

    Muzzin

    Martinez

    Sekera

    Greene

    McNabb

    That, of course, don’t include Voynov who I think will be gone one way or the other.

    He also has Derek Forbort, who played very well in the AHL playoffs on an $863K entry level deal.

    His only other major decisions are what to pay Tyler Toffoli and whether or not to go with Martin Jones or JF Berube as backup goaltender.

  94. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: BUF seems to be whale hunting.

    Will be interesting to watch.

    Maybe they want Ryan Miller back 🙂

  95. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I think he’ll find a way with Richards but the blue needs attention. Agree Lombardi is not a man to underestimate.

    Not just the Richards contract.

    Dustin Brown at a 5.8 AAV for 7 more years till he is 37. 27 points in 82 games last year. He doesn’t cover that bet right now.

    Jeff Carter at a 5.2AAV for 7 more years till he is 37. 62 points in 82 games last year Well worth it now, but in 4-5 years, good chance no.

    Marian Gaborik at a 4.8 AAV for 6 more years till he is 39. 47 points in 69 games last year. Worth it now, but in 2-3 years, probably not.

    Jonathan Quick at a 5.8 AAV for 8 more years till he is 37.

    Lombardi has lots of stick handing to do after the Richards contract. Maybe not this year, but these contracts are something Id be worried about moving forward

  96. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: Hall and Ebs, God love them, in no way represent ‘veteran two-way presence’ and are unlikely to in the future.

    Could you imagine if Hall developed a 200 foot game similar to Marian Hossa. Lordy!

  97. Woodguy says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Listen to the mocking bird – HEY!

    Follow

    Mark SpectorVerified account
    ‏@SportsnetSpec
    #Oilers to retain analytics consultant Tyler Dellow. Will work under management in 2015-16, less contact with coaching staff, post-Eakins.

    Good to hear.

    Creative cap ideas and player evaluation are Tyler’s strong suits imo.

    Wonder if this parlays into a Asst.GM job eventually.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Maybe they want Ryan Miller back

    Ha!

  99. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy,

    It’s great that he’ll be working with mgmt this time around. McLellan won’t be tempted to coach for corsi… stops, drops and rolls

    I guess this speaks to NYCOil’s question about Chelli and stats.

  100. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Maybe they want Ryan Miller back

    Ryan Miller back?
    I thought we established over the past few days that Dominik Hasek was the greatest goalie ever.
    He’d likely come out of retirement (again) before the Sabres bring back Miller Time.

  101. G Money says:

    – The #1 priority is to get a goalie. Thankfully, this is already the directive that Chia has given to his team.

    – There is some concern over Talbot’s small experience sample. This was my big concern when WG first anointed him McTalbot. Follow on work that WG has done, as have WheatNOil, TheGreatMutato, and I, suggests that what Talbot has achieved may be a small sample, but it is also exceedingly rare, and the likelihood of a goalie doing what Talbot has done and ending up not being elite is around 2%. That’s a good bet. A damn good bet – if Chia can avoid having Slats slats all over him.

    – The second priority is to fix the D. Replace and preferably upgrade Petry. Get rid of Ference = addition by subtraction. That may be as much as you can do this year.

    – Scuttlebutt I heard this weekend is that Sekera will be going UFA. This suggests that he and ultra-cap-strapped LA, unsurprisingly, cannot find a number that mutually works. He’d be my #1 target.

    – I get why LT wants to fix the rest of the F, but here’s the thing: we really honestly truly don’t know how good or bad our forwards are. Why? Because a. coaching, and b. puck moving D. The Oilers have been a shit show at the first and a gong show at the second. The first has been addressed, definitively. If the second can at least partially be addressed, I say give the team a year to show what they’ve got, THEN decide what needs fixing. Let’s be honest guys: if (and it’s not a big if IMO) Hall + RNH + Eberle + McDavid + Pouliot + Yak + Draisaitl + Lander can reasonably hit their stride in front of a modestly competent D corps that is modestly competent at moving the puck – THAT IS A FUCKING MONSTROUS SET OF FORWARDS.

    Monstrous.

    As in “the other teams D shit their pants every other shift” monstrous.

    Let’s not fret about (and especially burn cap space) getting the right balance on the third and fourth lines just now. Especially when the other four forwards are going to be Purcell, Gordon, Hendricks, and either Iiro the Hero or Thor. That’s not the gong show it used to be, not even close.

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

  102. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    – The #1 priority is to get a goalie.Thankfully, this is already the directive that Chia has given to his team.

    – There is some concern over Talbot’s small experience sample.This was my big concern when WG first anointed him McTalbot.Follow on work that WG has done, as have WheatNOil, TheGreatMutato, and I, suggests that what Talbot has achieved may be a small sample, but it is also exceedingly rare, and the likelihood of a goalie doing what Talbot has done and ending up not being elite is around 2%.That’s a good bet.A damn good bet – if Chia can avoid having Slats slats all over him.

    – The second priority is to fix the D.Replace and preferably upgrade Petry.Get rid of Ference = addition by subtraction.That may be as much as you can do this year.

    – Scuttlebutt I heard this weekend is that Sekera will be going UFA.This suggests that he and ultra-cap-strapped LA, unsurprisingly, cannot find a number that mutually works.He’d be my #1 target.

    – I get why LT wants to fix the rest of the F, but here’s the thing: we really honestly truly don’t know how good or bad our forwards are.Why?Because a. coaching, and b. puck moving D.The Oilers have been a shit show at the first and a gong show at the second.The first has been addressed, definitively.If the second can at least partially be addressed, I say give the team a year to show what they’ve got, THEN decide what needs fixing.Let’s be honest guys: if (and it’s not a big if IMO) Hall + RNH + Eberle + McDavid + Pouliot + Yak + Draisaitl + Lander can reasonably hit their stride in front of a modestly competent D corps that is modestly competent at moving the puck – THAT IS A FUCKING MONSTROUS SET OF FORWARDS.

    Monstrous.

    As in “the other teams D shit their pants every other shift” monstrous.

    Let’s not fret about (and especially burn cap space) getting the right balance on the third and fourth lines just now.Especially when the other four forwards are going to be Purcell, Gordon, Hendricks, and either Iiro the Hero or Thor.That’s not the gong show it used to be, not even close.

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

    That’s one good BINGO.

  103. Braden88 says:

    What about Signing Justin Williams without subtracting Yakupov.

    Pouliot – Hopkins – Eberle
    Hall – Mcdavid – Williams
    Purcell – Soderberg – Yakupov
    Hendricks – Lander – Klinkhammer

    Purcell and Yak played like this alot last year and Soderberg is an upgrade to Roy in my opinion. On top of that, the softer minutes might due Yak some good. Possibly even increase his trade value.

    I am totally fine with Yak either staying or going, and im sure his price point makes him at least slightly attractive to all other teams. Plus he’s due for a breakout year at some point.

    But i wonder if having “Too Many Options” is a better plan than ” Just Enough”

  104. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Agreed.

    I like Lack for the 57th a lot.

    Canucks wont do that in same division. Maybe 33 not 57.

  105. Showerhead says:

    G Money:

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

    I love this.

  106. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Woodguy: Agreed.

    I like Lack for the 57th a lot.

    I even do 33 for Lack and a 4th coming back. I would love Lack for 57th but Canucks can do better. But that would be my choice easily over Talbot for 16th.

  107. Hammers says:

    Braden88:
    What about Signing Justin Williams without subtracting Yakupov.

    Pouliot – Hopkins – Eberle
    Hall – Mcdavid – Williams
    Purcell – Soderberg – Yakupov
    Hendricks – Lander – Klinkhammer

    Purcell and Yak played like this alot last year and Soderberg is an upgrade to Roy in my opinion. On top of that, the softer minutes might due Yak some good. Possibly even increase his trade value.

    I am totally fine with Yak either staying or going, and im sure his price point makes him at least slightly attractive to all other teams. Plus he’s due for a breakout year at some point.

    But i wonder if having “Too Many Options” is a better plan than ” Just Enough”

    Leon is on this team by Xmas latest and maybe in Oct befor paying Williams $5 mill or more

  108. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    wordbird:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    So #33 plus a warm body equals Talbot (plus a lesser pick)?

    As others have said, would be surprised if there aren’t more moving parts to a Rangers-Oilers deal. As long as we don’t bail Slats out of the Girardi or Glass deals… I mean my nightmare scenario would be Yak+33 or Marincin+16 for Talbot and Girardi. Please no.

  109. Hammers says:

    G Money:
    – The #1 priority is to get a goalie.Thankfully, this is already the directive that Chia has given to his team.

    – There is some concern over Talbot’s small experience sample.This was my big concern when WG first anointed him McTalbot.Follow on work that WG has done, as have WheatNOil, TheGreatMutato, and I, suggests that what Talbot has achieved may be a small sample, but it is also exceedingly rare, and the likelihood of a goalie doing what Talbot has done and ending up not being elite is around 2%.That’s a good bet.A damn good bet – if Chia can avoid having Slats slats all over him.

    – The second priority is to fix the D.Replace and preferably upgrade Petry.Get rid of Ference = addition by subtraction.That may be as much as you can do this year.

    – Scuttlebutt I heard this weekend is that Sekera will be going UFA.This suggests that he and ultra-cap-strapped LA, unsurprisingly, cannot find a number that mutually works.He’d be my #1 target.

    – I get why LT wants to fix the rest of the F, but here’s the thing: we really honestly truly don’t know how good or bad our forwards are.Why?Because a. coaching, and b. puck moving D.The Oilers have been a shit show at the first and a gong show at the second.The first has been addressed, definitively.If the second can at least partially be addressed, I say give the team a year to show what they’ve got, THEN decide what needs fixing.Let’s be honest guys: if (and it’s not a big if IMO) Hall + RNH + Eberle + McDavid + Pouliot + Yak + Draisaitl + Lander can reasonably hit their stride in front of a modestly competent D corps that is modestly competent at moving the puck – THAT IS A FUCKING MONSTROUS SET OF FORWARDS.

    Monstrous.

    As in “the other teams D shit their pants every other shift” monstrous.

    Let’s not fret about (and especially burn cap space) getting the right balance on the third and fourth lines just now.Especially when the other four forwards are going to be Purcell, Gordon, Hendricks, and either Iiro the Hero or Thor.That’s not the gong show it used to be, not even close.

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

    A man of my own heart . Plus they will need that cash in another 3 years

  110. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    Absolutely right. Great comment. Not a word out of place. I am 100% in agreement with this.

    1.) 1G
    2.) 1D

    I leave F alone till I know what I have. I personally LOVE our outlook at F.

    Worst case is we are at deadline trading from wealth.

    I am for trading picks now.

  111. Hammers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I don’t mind Lander as a 3C. He showed last year he’s better suited to being in the regular rotation, with enough offence to play with skill and enough grit and grind to actually complement said skill.

    He done well for Sweden with2 decent wingers . May sound Crazy but I would consider McDavid on his wing for first half of the season

  112. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    Yup, totally agree on your order. Been saying the same thing all spring:
    G first priority
    Then 2 bona fide D
    Then a cheaper PK forward
    Then additional forwards or upgrades.

    Contrast this with last season where the glaring needs were D and C and we filled W first, as much as I like Pouliot, and Purcell. And then added Nikitin. Face palm. Fayne was ok as a bottom end guy for sure.

  113. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer just mentioned Woodguy on his show. Regarding goalies

  114. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ryan O’Reilly on the block.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=770882

    To Toronto for Phaneuf?

    To Calgary (he’s a Burke type) for Wideman and a pick?

  115. Hammers says:

    My lines Nuge , Ebs , Pouliot ,Lander, Hall, McDavid , Gordon , Hendricks ,Yak , Leon , Pakirenen , Gazdic

  116. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Sobotka still hasn’t told the Blues that he’s staying in the KHL for the coming season, and not using his out clause this year:


    “I haven’t heard from (Svoboda) yet, so I think that the reports … are premature,” Blues general manager Doug Armstrong said. “Petr Svoboda and I have a good relationship and he told me that he would let me know when it was finalized and I haven’t heard from him, so I’m thinking it’s not.”

    Sobotka signed a three-year contract worth a reported $12 million-plus with Omsk of the KHL last summer. He has an “out” clause after each season to return to the NHL.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/morning-skate/blues-still-don-t-have-definitive-word-on-sobotka/article_b166080a-c067-5ec4-8c2c-dda7b5451c06.html

  117. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Braden88:

    Purcell and Yak played like this alot last year and Soderberg is an upgrade to Roy in my opinion.

    Soderberg is an upgrade over Roy, that’s true.

    But I bet he’s looking for $4million for 4 years.

    Roy can be had for $1million for 1 year.

    So is Roy + $3million to spend on a Dman + cap space for the next 3 years (when all of McDavid, RNH, Lander, and Drai will be established NHLers) worth more than Soderberg?

    I’d take Roy for limited minutes for 1 year and a Dman.

  118. verdad2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    If either of Schultz or Nikitin play ever again for the Oilers then it will demonstrate that there is no committment to winning even after the advent of Chiarrelli.
    The prime objective is to make the playoffs next year at all costs.
    I hope people get that.
    This franchise must be competitive now , proving that the endless rationalizatio of losing for futures isn’t in play any more for the Oilers,
    That requires a functional defense. That requires that we never see Schultz or Nikitin ever again.Schultz should play ringette. Nikitin should stay in Russia, period.
    All draft picks but MacDavid must be used to secure functional defensemen. One of Hall or Eberle should be offered to get quality now on defense.
    The crediblity of this franchise is at stake. Who cares about prospects past MacDavid.

  119. Showerhead says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    G Money,

    Yup, totally agree on your order. Been saying the same thing all spring:
    G first priority
    Then 2 bona fide D
    Then a cheaper PK forward
    Then additional forwards or upgrades.

    Contrast this with last season where the glaring needs were D and C and we filled W first, as much as I like Pouliot, and Purcell. And then added Nikitin. Face palm. Fayne was ok as a bottom end guy for sure.

    I really like this one because it acknowledges that Edmonton’s D isn’t one big fish away from fixed.

  120. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer just mentionedWoodguy on his show. Regarding goalies

    Fame, makes a man take things over
    Fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow
    Fame,puts you there where things are hollow

  121. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    He used your real name, maybe it is time for sunglasses.

  122. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    At least that dang chalise has finally located its cuff links and tie pin that fell to the bottom of a big pile of fuzzy white gloves. But can it remember how to knot a Windsor?

    Last time I had to tie a tie for real, I think it did go to 3OT. And I even had a few years once up a time in a private school. I mean, did they teach me anything at all? Sheesh.

  123. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Agreed, Good post.

    I also agree (and posted this a lot during the season) that if we can only get rid of one Dman its Ference and its not close.

    Nikitin is much worse by eye than fancystats and only has one year left

    Jultx can be deployed properly when the GM isn’t telling the coach how to do it – problem there is contract vis avi the performance, but he can be moved later He’s famous still.

    Ference is just done. Breakouts and retaining possession simply don’t happen when he’s on the ice. Its not getting better, its getting worse and with two years left that’s a significant drag on performance and the cap.

  124. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy: Fame, makes a man take things over
    Fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow
    Fame,puts you there where things are hollow

    Congrats on the nod! Consistent quality always gets its due eventually.

    But, for the record: we read your stuff before it was cool.

  125. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy: Fame, makes a man take things over
    Fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow
    Fame,puts you there where things are hollow

    Funny, that song doesn’t even mention peppers and milk.

    According to biographer David Buckley, the Los Angeles-based David Bowie, fuelled by an “astronomic” cocaine habit and subsisting on a diet of peppers and milk, spent much of 1975–76 “in a state of psychic terror”.[1] Stories—mostly from one interview, pieces of which found their way into Playboy and Rolling Stone—circulated of the singer living in a house full of ancient-Egyptian artefacts, burning black candles, seeing bodies fall past his window, having his semen stolen by witches, receiving secret messages from The Rolling Stones, and living in morbid fear of fellow Aleister Crowley aficionado Jimmy Page.[2] Bowie would later say of L.A., “The fucking place should be wiped off the face of the earth”.[4]

    Please don’t fall for the excesses of success, WG, and watch out for the witches!

  126. AsiaOil says:

    You are not giving sample size effects near enough weight. Many things can look “exceedingly rare” in small samples – and 57 games as a backup is very limited record for a goalie. These rare things can easily disappear as the sample size increases. Bottom line is that Talbot’s sample size does not provide a reasonable margin of error at this point – and making conclusions based on that sample size and large margin of error is equal parts guessing and science. Doesn’t mean the bet wouldn’t pay off – just means there is little quantitative justification for making it. I would, however, be more convinced if a quality goalie coach (not that the Oilers have ever possessed one of these) vouched that Talbot’s technique is solid to elite as confirmation of the stats which possess an uncomfortably large margin of error. Then there is mental toughness as tested under a starters load of 50-60 games in a season – also untested and unproven. So let’s not suggest that a Talbot bet is anything but risky and fraught with uncertainties.

    G Money:
    There is some concern over Talbot’s small experience sample.This was my big concern when WG first anointed him McTalbot.Follow on work that WG has done, as have WheatNOil, TheGreatMutato, and I, suggests that what Talbot has achieved may be a small sample, but it is also exceedingly rare, and the likelihood of a goalie doing what Talbot has done and ending up not being elite is around 2%.That’s a good bet.A damn good bet – if Chia can avoid having Slats slats all over him.

  127. misfit says:

    Williams would be nice for a year or two, but is not a need.

    I have no idea what McLelland’s plan for the lines are, but if we have Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle return as a trio, then the spot we’re looking at Williams filling is the RW on Hall-McDavid’s line.

    Here are the internal candidates:

    Purcell – He’s not a defensive dynamo, but he’s played with skill and is a veteran player. His best season was in Tampa where he played along side St.Louis and Stamkos. Doesn’t seem like it would be much of a departure to play with Hall and McDavid.

    Lander – I personally like the idea of Lander playing on the wing on this line. He showed last year that he can play with skilled players at this level, and more specifically showed well with Hall. He also brings a “Pisani-like” element of puck retrieval and defensive acumen which could really be a boon to that line.

    Yakupov – High skill, speed, and a great shot. With Hall and McDavid, he wouldn’t be a focal point or have to have the puck on his stick too often (which is where he struggles most IMO). Just find the open ice. This trio could go either way, but it’s probably worth a shot.

    I don’t consider guys like Pitlick, Klinkhammer, or Fraser to be legitimate candidates, but I still think we have more than enough options without having to bring in a ~$4M free agent. If they don’t keep the 67-97-14 line together, then we could try two other vets in Eberle and Pouliot as well. Lots of options.

    If we go through all of the above without any success, then we’ll have Purcell’s $4.5M off the books and what is so far a very strong UFA class up front to fill the void next offseason. I’m confident we’ll have no trouble getting someone who’ll work.

  128. Truth says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Ryan O’Reilly on the block.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=770882

    To Toronto for Phaneuf?

    To Calgary (he’s a Burke type) for Wideman and a pick?

    I’d assume it would take more than that, no? Phaneuf’s bags are already sitting in the terminal at Pearson.

  129. AZOIL says:

    G Money:
    – The #1 priority is to get a goalie.Thankfully, this is already the directive that Chia has given to his team.

    – There is some concern over Talbot’s small experience sample.This was my big concern when WG first anointed him McTalbot.Follow on work that WG has done, as have WheatNOil, TheGreatMutato, and I, suggests that what Talbot has achieved may be a small sample, but it is also exceedingly rare, and the likelihood of a goalie doing what Talbot has done and ending up not being elite is around 2%.That’s a good bet.A damn good bet – if Chia can avoid having Slats slats all over him.

    – The second priority is to fix the D.Replace and preferably upgrade Petry.Get rid of Ference = addition by subtraction.That may be as much as you can do this year.

    – Scuttlebutt I heard this weekend is that Sekera will be going UFA.This suggests that he and ultra-cap-strapped LA, unsurprisingly, cannot find a number that mutually works.He’d be my #1 target.

    – I get why LT wants to fix the rest of the F, but here’s the thing: we really honestly truly don’t know how good or bad our forwards are.Why?Because a. coaching, and b. puck moving D.The Oilers have been a shit show at the first and a gong show at the second.The first has been addressed, definitively.If the second can at least partially be addressed, I say give the team a year to show what they’ve got, THEN decide what needs fixing.Let’s be honest guys: if (and it’s not a big if IMO) Hall + RNH + Eberle + McDavid + Pouliot + Yak + Draisaitl + Lander can reasonably hit their stride in front of a modestly competent D corps that is modestly competent at moving the puck – THAT IS A FUCKING MONSTROUS SET OF FORWARDS.

    Monstrous.

    As in “the other teams D shit their pants every other shift” monstrous.

    Let’s not fret about (and especially burn cap space) getting the right balance on the third and fourth lines just now.Especially when the other four forwards are going to be Purcell, Gordon, Hendricks, and either Iiro the Hero or Thor.That’s not the gong show it used to be, not even close.

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

    This, please with a side of this! Agree, let these forwards work for one season or even half a season with a new coach, a competent goalie and a D that can make a pass. Did I mentioned this ^^^^!!!!!!!

  130. AsiaOil says:

    Pretty much spot on – another vet top 6 RW would be nice but not critical. But I’d add that if a value contract opportunity came up for a vet RW like Williams or Stewart – the team should seriously consider it. Overpaying or even paying market value for a gig on CMD’s RW is not at all necessary. BJ MacDonald says hi 🙂

    misfit:
    Williams would be nice for a year or two, but is not a need.

    I have no idea what McLelland’s plan for the lines are, but if we have Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle return as a trio, then the spot we’re looking at Williams filling is the RW on Hall-McDavid’s line.

    Here are the internal candidates:

    Purcell – He’s not a defensive dynamo, but he’s played with skill and is a veteran player.His best season was in Tampa where he played along side St.Louis and Stamkos.Doesn’t seem like it would be much of a departure to play with Hall and McDavid.

    Lander – I personally like the idea of Lander playing on the wing on this line.He showed last year that he can play with skilled players at this level, and more specifically showed well with Hall.He also brings a “Pisani-like” element of puck retrieval and defensive acumen which could really be a boon to that line.

    Yakupov – High skill, speed, and a great shot.With Hall and McDavid, he wouldn’t be a focal point or have to have the puck on his stick too often (which is where he struggles most IMO).Just find the open ice.This trio could go either way, but it’s probably worth a shot.

    I don’t consider guys like Pitlick, Klinkhammer, or Fraser to be legitimate candidates, but I still think we have more than enough options without having to bring in a ~$4M free agent.If they don’t keep the 67-97-14 line together, then we could try two other vets in Eberle and Pouliot as well.Lots of options.

    If we go through all of the above without any success, then we’ll have Purcell’s $4.5M off the books and what is so far a very strong UFA class up front to fill the void next offseason.I’m confident we’ll have no trouble getting someone who’ll work.

  131. Bruce McCurdy says:

    verdad2.0:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    If either of Schultz or Nikitin play ever again for the Oilers then it will demonstrate that there is no committment to winning even after the advent of Chiarrelli.
    The prime objective is to make the playoffs next year at all costs.
    I hope people get that.
    Thisfranchise must be competitive now , proving that the endless rationalizatio of losing for futures isn’t in play any more for the Oilers,
    That requires a functional defense. That requires that we never see Schultz or Nikitin ever again.Schultz shouldplay ringette. Nikitin should stay in Russia, period.
    All draft picks but MacDavid must be used to secure functional defensemen. One of Hall or Eberle should be offered to get quality now on defense.
    The crediblity of this franchise is at stake. Who cares about prospects past MacDavid.

    Clearly you know much more about the matter than Peter Chiarelli ever will, so I hope he reads this comments section and gets the straight goods.

  132. GCW_69 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Slats is also desperate to sell. He’s got one year of Talbot, which is worth what, 20 starts behind Lundqvist, then he walks. If he can cash him for a decent asset now, he will. Not necessarily a first.

    I blame Woodguy for convincing the entire hockey world that Talbot is The Answer to Oilers’ netminding problems, and Lowetide for convin… er, confirming that Sather is a jackal.

    I don’t agree Slats is desperate to sell. He is 71 years old and has a team that is very very close to winning it all based on the playoff performances the last two seasons. Talbot just showed the value of having a strong back up when your starter is aging.

    Slats downside is retaining Talbot and not having to worry about goaltending wheel gearing up for another run. If the return for Talbot is a second round pickithat won’t help the team for 5 years, does that motivate him or does he prefer the sleep at night factor of not having to worry about his goaltending?

  133. jake70 says:

    WG, are you gonna live forever, are you gonna learn how to fly! ?

  134. Lowetide says:

    When you say ‘leave the forwards to make sure’ and ‘forwards are fine, address the defense’ it’s very important to include what the market is making available. Carl Soderberg is a useful free agent piece, he’s available an can help this team without taking Lander’s (or another young player’s) job.

    That allows Chiarelli to deal Gordon now, perhaps maxing out on value. Is there a defense version of Soderberg? I’m not really seeing one. So, perhaps you take Gordon, add Marincin or other, and get that defenseman (I’ve listed Greene but it could be a younger blue, would have to be if Marincin is involved).

    Good teams make creative deals and Chiralli did this in Boston (especially early on when he was trading blue, went from paper clip to a diamond in about five deals). There isn’t lot of low hanging fruit defensively, just more expensive pieces that work but are not perfect fits.

    Soderberg can help and it doesn’t mean any of the young forwards are impacted (beyond possibly Leon is Soderberg/Lander play wing).

  135. theres oil in virginia says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer just mentionedWoodguy on his show. Regarding goalies

    Neat. Don’t let it go to your head WG.

    Woodguy: Fame, makes a man take things over
    Fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow
    Fame,puts you there where things are hollow

    Whoops, too late!
    😉

  136. Lowetide says:

    First, good on WG for starting a blog and then putting smart stuff on it that people can understand. Tough to do. Second, good for him that he’s reaching a larger audience, I think that’s important and has real value. I’ll also credit Bob for tracking down the good stuff and putting it out there. Hopefully the Oilers are listening.

  137. Factotum says:

    G Money:
    – The #1 priority is to get a goalie.

    Fix the G.

    Fix the D.

    Observe the F.

    Then fix the F if and where needed.

    Couldn’t agree more, but that probably wouldn’t stop me from picking up Soderberg if he’s available for a reasonable dollar.

  138. Factotum says:

    Lowetide:
    First, good on WG for starting a blog and then putting smart stuff on it that people can understand. Tough to do. Second, good for him that he’s reaching a larger audience, I think that’s important and has real value. I’ll also credit Bob for tracking down the good stuff and putting it out there. Hopefully the Oilers are listening.

    To me, the fact that Bob is referencing WG’s excellent work is a clear signal that the Oilers are hard-targeting Talbot.

  139. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide:
    When you say ‘leave the forwards to make sure’ and ‘forwards are fine, address the defense’ it’s very important to include what the market is making available. Carl Soderberg is a useful free agent piece, he’s available an can help this team without taking Lander’s (or another young player’s) job.

    That allows Chiarelli to deal Gordon now, perhaps maxing out on value. Is there a defense version of Soderberg? I’m not really seeing one. So, perhaps you take Gordon, add Marincin or other, and get that defenseman (I’ve listed Greene but it could be a younger blue, would have to be if Marincin is involved).

    Good teams make creative deals and Chiralli did this in Boston (especially early on when he was trading blue, went from paper clip to a diamond in about five deals). There isn’tlot of low hanging fruit defensively, just more expensive pieces that work but are not perfect fits.

    Soderberg can help and it doesn’t mean any of the young forwards are impacted (beyond possibly Leon is Soderberg/Lander play wing).

    Disagree.

    Soderberg is a good player, but money we spend on him is money we can’t spend on Petry and a second Petry (obviously neither Petry here will be Petry).

    We need to replace the Petry we lost and find a Petry to play with him. We need cap space to do that.

  140. grim.oil says:

    #1 Priority is D
    #2 Priority is D

    I get the whole we need a Goalie thing because we do but that is not priority. Scrivens looked great with L.A. In front of him. Fact. Do I think Scrivens is a #1? No. Fact is we won’t be able to see what a #1 looks like until we get him some help. Saying goalies are voodoo is not being smart. Realizing goalies need the right environment to succeed is something that needs to be seriously looked at. Talbot is a gamble. Just like Scrivens was. Both coming from high-end teams that play heavy defence. It’s quite obvious to me there chance of success drops face first of a cliff with an anvil tied to their leg without D in front of them. Lets address the real problem because Scrivens or any other goalie playing the Oil crease only has #3 and lower D-men in front of them.

    Dubnyk for another example is an OK goalie. Not crap like everyone said. Not great/Vezina like everyone is saying now. Give him Suter and a defensive system that does not force him side to side scattering to make dynamic saves and what do you get?… Hint: It’s not Voodoo

  141. Jesse says:

    The Talbot VS Lack decision reminds me a lot of the Babcock VS McLellan decision.

    Let other people overpay for the belle of the ball while you focus in on the perceived “2nd place option” that is still high qualtiy. Is the difference in talent between Lack and Talbot worth the difference in what you’ll have to pay for them? Likely not (though I will admit to not having done *any* work on this and have only read what others have wrote on the subject).

    In summary: let others go crazy for the shiniest toy and go after the 2nd shiniest toy.

    This is what many smart GMs do for depth positions in FA. Wait until July 15th and get good value.

  142. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    G Money,

    Thank you for the voice of reason.

  143. rickithebear says:

    monsterbater4: I have no idea what the point you’re trying to make is, but those NHLE numbers look incredibly faulty. Especially since McDavid’s should be the highest

    I took existing NHLE for Leagues and Got NHLE Equilency for MHL; Swed JR; FIN JR; ETC.
    Broke down each Fucking PLayer by there game logs.

    Modified for the accepted NHLE Curve Factors and
    listed there fucking EVP which is a more accurate Measure
    and
    Even Goals which has more value than a Pass.
    and
    Their Total NHLE which you can quickly identify as useless if it is not a smaller ratio of Even points.

    What i does show you is there are alot of highly ranked players who do not shoot the Puck!
    Now if you want to do the countless fucking Hours it took me and want to post the thing.
    Go Ahead .

    Unless you are confused by Mcdavid; Eichel and Marner placed above the top 5 rate line cause they perform above that! ETC.!

    I usually just do this for myself!

    This draft has the depth of 3 drafts combined.

    For targets
    – Move up to grab Werenski the Best D in the draft

    -drop from 16 to get as many 30 to 40 picks
    -Target theese strong Even producing d
    Connar Hobbs 32 EVP CSb #72
    Mitch Van Sompel 28 EVP #63 BM
    Jeremy Lauzon 26 EVP 13VG #42 CSB
    Brendan Guhle 25 EVP #70 BM
    MEloche 23 EVP 8EVG #44 BM
    Levielle 22 EVP #124 CSB
    Pilon 20 EVP #55 BM

    -Target Forwards
    Raslovic 63 EVP 16 EVG #34 BM
    C Fisher 47 EVP 23 EVG #45 BM
    Senyshyn 37 EVP 23 EVG #40 BM
    Foley 44 EVP 20 EVP NR BM
    Looke 36 EVp 21 EVG NR BM
    Chlapik 39 EVP 20 EVG #39 BM
    Jesse Gabrielle 39EVP 20 EVG NR BM
    Korostelev 37 EVP 20 EVG #69 BM
    Lukas Vejdemo 35 EVP 19 EVG NR BM
    Blake Speers 42 EVP 15 EVG #72 BM
    Kevin Stenlund 34 EVP 15 EVg NR BM
    Mitchell Stephens 33 EVp 15EVg #46 BM
    Sebastian AHO 48 EVP 17 EVG #77 BM

  144. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    Interesting to see Jesse Gabrielle on your list. Didn’t he kill it at the combine too? Pretty impressive from a guy who didn’t warrant a ranking from the Mackenzie list.

  145. Stud Muffin says:

    Does Connor McDavid flourish with Hall-Eberle or does the club need to add Justin Williams? Nail Yakupov. I’m honestly more excited to watch yak away from Eakins than I am watching mcdavid
    Who is going to play goal?
    Lack or Talbot
    What can be done about the elevator shaft known as Oilers blue? Wait out Nikitins last year get ference the hell away. Play hard ball with Schultz
    Why do the Oilers hate Martin Marincin?
    I don’t know

  146. Captain Smarmy says:

    grim.oil:
    #1 Priority is D
    #2 Priority is D

    I get the whole we need a Goalie thing because we do but that is not priority. Scrivens looked great with L.A. In front of him. Fact. Do I think Scrivens is a #1? No. Fact is we won’t be able to see what a #1 looks like until we get him some help. Saying goalies are voodoo is not being smart. Realizing goalies need the right environment to succeed is something that needs to be seriously looked at. Talbot is a gamble. Just like Scrivens was. Both coming from high-end teams that play heavy defence. It’s quite obvious to me there chance of success drops face first of a cliff with an anvil tied to their leg without D in front of them. Lets address the real problem because Scrivens or any other goalie playing the Oil crease only has #3 and lower D-men in front of them.

    Enough people have provided enough evidence that the goaltending was a major problem. Sure the defense needs to be fixed but the goaltending is more important and very likely easier and cheaper to fix.

  147. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Disagree.

    Soderberg is a good player, but money we spend on him is money we can’t spend on Petry and a second Petry (obviously neither Petry here will be Petry).

    We need to replace the Petry we lost and find a Petry to play with him.We need cap space to do that.

    If the Petry isn’t there, and that is the case currently, then you may spend the money on another Nikitin. Even Franson, who looks good from here, may not work out (he didn’t in Nashville although that’s a very small sample size).

    Soderberg allows Chiarelli to be creative, spending $4M on a defenseman who is in the discard pile does not. Gordon’s value added to a trade makes sense.

  148. AsiaOil says:

    WG can shake and bake Talbot’s stats all he wants – but the fundamental point is – 57 NHL games is a piss poor sample and there is no way to avoid that reality. Statistical margin of error is frakin huge and I have seen no expert who has seen him good wrt technique. A positive tell for me would be if a solid goalie program like MIN led by a guy like Mason is interested – but no rumors that I’ve heard on that. Expert confirmation would lead me to be more comfortable with WG’s analysis – but at this point it’s decidedly dodgy because of sample size effects.

    I’ll give you another perspective – Talbot has only played more than 36 games ONCE in his entire career when he put up a pedestrian .918 in the 55 AHL in 2012-13. He also put up a .846 SP in limited playoff action last year and NYR didn’t trust him in net in the playoffs at all this year. I could make the case that he’s got no record as a workhorse and wilts under playoff pressure – sure small sample size – but the numbers support it 🙂

    Look I don’t mind taking a flyer on the guy with a #2nd round pick – but even if it works out – he’s going to be expensive as hell in 12 months. Sather is going to try off-load all the risk on the team taking Talbot – and he’ll laugh his ass off all the way to the bank if someone is foolish enough to cough up a 1st rounder for a guy with this limited a track-record who is UFA in 12 months.

    Get Anderson from OTT and have some proven stability in net for a change.

  149. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Congrats on the nod from Bob. That’s fantastic.

  150. AsiaOil says:

    LT you have to admit that Soderburg is in the “nice to have”category” not the “must have category”. He’s not a guy I chase on day 1 – but if he’s still there in week 2 and willing to be flexible – sure you have that conversation. No need to go nuts as soon as the doors open on UFA signing day on guys in the “nice to have” category.

    Gordon’s max value will be obtained at the 2016 trade deadline – that’s when you deal him – not this summer.

    As for the line of thought that they may just spend the money on another Nikitin – I would agree with that if MacT was still GM – but there’s no evidence for that level of stupidity with this group.

    Lowetide: If the Petry isn’t there, and that is the case currently, then you may spend the money on another Nikitin. Even Franson, who looks good from here, may not work out (he didn’t in Nashville although that’sa very small sample size).

    Soderberg allows Chiarelli to be creative, spending $4M on a defenseman who is in the discard pile does not. Gordon’s value added to a trade makes sense.

  151. verdad2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know you saw both of Schultz and Nikitin play last year.
    Are you serously suggesting you want either of them playing for the Oilers ever again?
    As for who knows best, some of us were calling for the dismissla of Eakins and MacTavish long before it actually happened.
    Being right doesn’t correlate with abstruse statistical inference or protracted belief in second and third chances.

  152. verdad2.0 says:

    Again, lets hope that the Oilers do not waste assets on a golaie.
    Focus on the defense at all octs.
    Pick up the cheapest of the UFA discards for the next season.
    Teh chances of that being productive is as high as some insane over pay for some back up who has never played any seious string of games.
    Come to terms with radical surgery to get quality on the defense.
    Surround MacDavid with qulatiy D. The days of Hall and Eberle could soon be over.

  153. grim.oil says:

    Captain Smarmy,

    Sure enough people have said goalies are a major problem. Thats the truth. The fact is they don’t even have to say it, thats how bad it is on D. If you can’t see than im astounished. MacT was right about one thing “The proof is in the pudding!”. You have to look no further than Scrivens. Like I said he was great with D in front of him. You can say the same about Fasth. Or you can look farther back to that former 1st round pick. You know the guy who was developed slowly, sh*t the bed and got traded for a overpaid 3rd/4th line grinder. Then eventualy dropped. However this year after some conditioning and being placed behind a team with great D he is getting a Vezina nod. You know Dubnyk, right?

  154. speeds says:

    AsiaOil:

    Gordon’s max value will be obtained at the 2016 trade deadline – that’s when you deal him – not this summer.

    His value may well be higher at the deadline, but it’s also possible that the difference in value between a 5th and a 2nd (for argument’s sake, let’s say that’s what he’s worth this summer and next deadline, respectively) is more than made up for by having the 3M now to use to address another position.

  155. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    LT you have to admit that Soderburg is in the “nice to have”category” not the “must have category”. He’s not a guy I chase on day 1 – but if he’s still there in week 2 and willing to be flexible – sure you have that conversation. No need to go nuts as soon as the doors open on UFA signing day on guys in the “nice to have” category.

    Gordon’s max value will be obtained at the 2016 trade deadline – that’s when you deal him – not this summer.

    As for the line of thought that they may just spend the money on another Nikitin – I would agree with that if MacT was still GM – but there’s no evidence for that level of stupidity with this group.

    He’s one of the few free agents I’d bother offering money too, along with Franson and Sekera (and Green if the Oilers can offload Schultz AND Nikitin). This isn’t a massive season for UFA’s.

  156. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed we need to be careful how we spend the money, which may mean no big D acquisition this off season, but Soderberg will certainly be on the books for 4 years or so. I’d rather keep a bullet in the barrel so to speak.

    Also I knew if I said Petry enough someone would respond to me.

  157. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    You’re missing on half of what the ‘sample size’ issue is.

    If the only basis for inference you’re willing to use is 57 games of Talbot, the error bars on that are pretty wide, so you’d certainly treat it like it was a risky bet.

    That was my initial take on WGs analysis. 57 games! Too small!

    But that’s simplistic. Playing 57 games as a goalie in the NHL is nothing to sniff at. It’s not definitive, but it tells you a lot. And having out of this world results in those 57 games tells you a whole bunch more.

    So the question is: how much does 57 games of an out-of-this-world result tell you?

    When you look at how many goalies who’ve played approximately that many games and had results approximately comparable to Talbot’s, the results are much more definitive. Almost every one of them turned into an elite goalie.

    In other words, putting in those kinds of results over 57 games is a rare thing, and one achieved almost exclusively by elite goalies.

    It might be easier to track if you use a different example.

    No one would point to the first 20 games of a rookie forwards career and suggest that this is indicative of his career. Some start cold and end up great, some start hot and end up duds.

    But that’s not the end of the story.

    If a rookie scores 40 points and 4 hat tricks in his first 20 games, one thing you can be sure of is that that is one hell of a hot shit rookie. Maybe he won’t be better than Gretzky, but it’s probably safe to say he’s sure as hell going to be good. For a rookie to put up 40 points in his first 20 games and fail out for any reason other than injury would be unheard of.

    That’s what Talbot has done. He’s put up the goalie equivalent of 40 points in 20 games. It is a ridiculously elite start to an NHL career.

    Certainly, it’s far from guaranteed that he’ll be the next Dominik Hasek, as this start would indicate. That’s where the error bars come in.

    But the likelihood that after 57 games he could be this good and still turn out to be a career dud is also very very unlikely. As in, out of the 50 or so goalies that have done it so far, only two didn’t turn out to be elite – and one of those was due to an early career-ending injury.

    That’s why Talbot’s a really good bet.

  158. dustrock says:

    rickithebear,

    Heard good things about Lauzon and Leveille as flying under the radar on D.

  159. PhrankLee says:

    Lowetide: Gordon’s value added to a trade makes sense.

    The timing for him bringing in value with a trade is perfect! He’s been a great Oiler.

  160. G Money says:

    verdad2.0,

    grim.oil,

    Then both of you should be pushing as hard as possible for the Oilers to sign Michal Neuvirth.

    If defense determines a goalies results, and that guy could put up a .914 behind what is demonstrably a far worse defense than the Oiler defense in every possible way, he must be the next Hasek.

    McNeuvirth we shall call him, and he shall save us (goals against I mean).

    Or you could just watch the game and realize that Dubnyk, Scrivens, and Fasth shit the bed over and over again, letting in a grotesque number of easy goals, from the blueline and beyond, easily the worst in the league. You can, and I have, as has Father John, proven that they were in fact the worst in the league at letting in easy goals.

    But frankly, you don’t need stats to see how fucking awful they were.

    Soft goals are on the goalies. Always.

  161. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: He’s one of the few free agents I’d bother offering money too, along with Franson and Sekera (and Green if the Oilers can offload Schultz AND Nikitin). This isn’t a massive season for UFA’s.

    LT,

    Who do we like next year for UFA for D or G or F? Or is it too early to look that far ahead?

  162. AsiaOil says:

    I’d add Stewart to that list. Watched him a bit in the MIN playoffs and he was a load – 6-2 231 lbs would look good on CMD’s RW.

    Buying something you don’t really need (Soderburg) just for the sake of buying it isn’t a particularly astute move many times – even if it is quality. Plus the money you give Soderburg this summer will not be available next summer to further improve the defense.

    Lowetide: He’s one of the few free agents I’d bother offering money too, along with Franson and Sekera (and Green if the Oilers can offload Schultz AND Nikitin). This isn’t a massive season for UFA’s.

  163. G Money says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer just mentionedWoodguy on his show. Regarding goalies

    Nice!

  164. G Money says:

    Lowetide: If the Petry isn’t there, and that is the case currently, then you may spend the money on another Nikitin. Even Franson, who looks good from here, may not work out (he didn’t in Nashville although that’sa very small sample size).

    Soderberg allows Chiarelli to be creative, spending $4M on a defenseman who is in the discard pile does not. Gordon’s value added to a trade makes sense.

    By my rough calculations, after accounting for McDavid and $3M to either sign or replace Schultz, the OIlers have something like $10M in cap room left.

    That gets you $3M worth of goalie and $6M worth of 1D with a few bucks to spare.

    Certainly, if part of the program is to tweak the lineup to improve, that should always be part of the mandate. If as you say, TMc isn’t running a zone start hell line with Gordon, then a Soderbergh for Gordon swap makes sense, if you can make the cap room adjustments.

    Ditto for Nikitin buyout and swap, etc. Tweaks to the roster to make small steady improvements.

    And especially ditto if the tweaks are part of either a bigger swap or part of freeing up cap space to add 1D or 1G.

    But the context here is that adding a 1G and a top pairing D are giant, and absolutely necessary steps, and the results on the ice will outweigh a half dozen roster tweaks to the bottom 9 forwards.

    So yeah, you go ahead and make those tweaks where the opportunity arises – but I think the key point here is that you don’t do that if it carries any risk at all of distracting you or capstringing you from making those giant improvements.

    (Note: this is the reverse worry of what we had with MacT and Lowe, where they went whale hunting and that played a huge part in them losing focus and so losing really important role players like Hejda and Glencross and Brodziak.)

  165. Pouzar says:

    Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl 31m31 minutes ago
    I’ve yet to talk to a Swede hockey mind that agrees with how far Kylington has fallen. Seems like the negativity is all coming from NA.

  166. grim.oil says:

    Of course soft goals are on the goalies. Doesn’t mean I think a good goalie(Neuvirth) is going to carry a crap D. How well did he carry any team ever?
    Lets be realistic here. Edmonton’s D is 3 men deep. 3 and a 1/2 if you count Schultz. Even when Petry was there you are still missing 1/3 of a good D. And that 1/3 is your top pairing. I bet if you are in the crease and your best guy in front of you is a rookie you are prone to overthink and react different than if the best guy in front of you is Doughty. How many soft goals did Scrivens let in while wearing black and white? People say players come to Edmonton to die. Well when you have a black hole between your OK goalie and your Elite forwards, things are going to look pretty ugly. You dont need any stats to know that.

  167. Lowetide says:

    G Money: By my rough calculations, after accounting for McDavid and $3M to either sign or replace Schultz, the OIlers have something like $10M in cap room left.

    That gets you $3M worth of goalie and $6M worth of 1D with a few bucks to spare.

    Certainly, if part of the program is to tweak the lineup to improve, that should always be part of the mandate.If as you say, TMc isn’t running a zone start hell line with Gordon, then a Soderbergh for Gordon swap makes sense, if you can make the cap room adjustments.

    Ditto for Nikitin buyout and swap, etc.Tweaks to the roster to make small steady improvements.

    And especially ditto if the tweaks are part of either a bigger swap or part of freeing up cap space to add 1D or 1G.

    But the context here is that adding a 1G and atop pairing D are giant, and absolutely necessary steps, and the results on the ice will outweigh a half dozen roster tweaks to the bottom 9 forwards.

    So yeah, you go ahead and make those tweaks where the opportunity arises – but I think the key point here is that you don’t do that if it carries any risk at all of distracting you or capstringing you from making those giant improvements.

    (Note: this is the reverse worry of what we had with MacT and Lowe, where they went whale hunting and that played a huge part in them losing focus and so losing really important role players like Hejda and Glencross and Brodziak.)

    I can’t disagree with any of that, goaltending is the No. 1 issue and I trust Chiarelli will find a way. Defense is a little different though and I hope you’ll agree that if he can’t find a suitable solution it is best for PC to keep his powder dry, EVEN if it means retaining Nikitin, Ference and Schultz.

  168. AsiaOil says:

    But consider the benefit of trading a vet like Gordon at the March 2016 deadline for max value – then flipping the pick(s) at the 2016 draft to acquire a better vet for next season. It’s what we need to do with the Peron and Petry assets this year. You can’t do this when you are seriously competing – but the Oilers could do it this year and next given the circumstances. Kind of a hockey arbitrage.

    speeds: His value may well be higher at the deadline, but it’s also possible that the difference in value between a 5th and a 2nd (for argument’s sake, let’s say that’s what he’s worth this summer and next deadline, respectively) is more than made up for by having the 3M now to use to address another position.

  169. TheOtherJohn says:

    I

  170. Rondo says:

    Pouzar:
    Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl31m31 minutes ago
    I’ve yet to talk to a Swede hockey mind that agrees with how far Kylington has fallen. Seems like the negativity is all coming from NA.

    Jacob Nystrom of Hockeysverige.se

    C: Oliver Kylington was supposed to be that elite talent this year, and everyone agreed at the beginning of the year, but he has plummeted down draft boards, universally. Why is that? How do you view Kylington?

    J: Kylington has had a rough year. Last year he made his debut in SHL and made some real noise after becoming the youngest scorer in SHL history. As he was only sixteen, he was given a lot of slack for his mistakes, and there were a lot. But going into this year the stakes were raised and he was suppose to build on last years performance. Unfortunately he couldn’t and i think that lead to a lot of stress and pressure that he couldn’t handle.

    My view of Kylington is that he is a fantastic skater – brilliant, in fact – but I don’t see him having a basic understanding of the game or the vision that will take him to the next level. Perhaps it’s just a phase, but I don’t see him becoming the defender a lot of others see. As to the drop I think some of the scouts have picked up on it. The ones that still thinks his a top prospect are the ones who’ve not seen him enough.

    Add to that a reputation of being difficult to deal with and you have a perfect storm to drag you down the draft lists.

    [Author’s note: Kylington played on three teams this year. Some attribute that to level of play, others to attitude. I am obviously a very big fan of Kylington, as you may have read here, but as Jacob said, ‘those who like him have not seen him enough’ and I have not watched Kylington live, which is a far superior method of scouting compared to scouting off a laptop. When watching off a screen you never see a player without the puck, his positioning and what he does. If the guys who watch him day in and day out dislike him, there must be something there you don’t see on a screen. I loved him every time I watched him, but I sure won’t sit here all stubborn and ignore someone who’s actually watched him live. I for one am certainly more wary.]

  171. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl31m31 minutes ago
    I’ve yet to talk to a Swede hockey mind that agrees with how far Kylington has fallen. Seems like the negativity is all coming from NA.

    I’ve got Kylington going 20th to Detroit.

    And in five years we’re all back here wondering if they’d take an extra winger for a top-pairing defender. Because Red Wings 😉

  172. Woogie63 says:

    PhrankLee,

    Trade to trade Gordon is when somebody beats him out of that position, until useful vet adding lots to the whole team

  173. godot10 says:

    I’m with Gmoney.

    I want a two D and a goaltender before I worry about the forwards.

    I also think dumping a good player on an expiring contract (Gordon) when one is one year away from Draisaitl, and Lander needs a year with some protection for the shutdonw centre role is misguided. Gordon doesn’t have to play an exclusively shutdown role. With Lander, Gordon, and Nugent-Hopkins, he has three guys for the D-zone, if he builds his lines properly.

    I hope McLellan and Woodcroft saw Lander good at the Worlds, and have studied the Nelson game tapes.

    My list of D is Hamilton, Martin, Sekera, Staal, Scandella. I want two of them. Mike Green and Dan Boyle are the offensive D that I would consider for the second D. Klein is a default option for the 2nd D if all other options fail. Beachemin on a really short deal.

    No to Franson, ever.

    The ones who probably aren’t available so I don’t list them (Phaneuf, Seabrook, Bouwmeester, Vlasic)

  174. AsiaOil says:

    Improvement requires at least 1 of those 3 dmen be removed from everyday use this summer, another one or both by the next trade deadline. Retaining all 3 to keep powder dry while improving is unfortunately impossible. That’s why although Shultz is last on my list to move this summer – he does need to go if there are no opportunities to off-load Ference or Nikitin at the draft since he is without a contract. MacT left Chia a handful of grenades that need to be dealt with systematically and there is little room for error right now. The best moves short-term are low risk moves to improve the team (e.g., vet goalie like Anderson) that won’t eat up cap space or serious assets like the #16 or Yak. Those assets should only be in play for top a 3 dman this summer and not gambits like Talbot.

    Lowetide: I can’t disagree with any of that, goaltending is the No. 1 issue and I trust Chiarelli will find a way. Defense is a little different though and I hope you’ll agree that if he can’t find a suitable solution it is best for PC to keep his powder dry, EVEN if it means retaining Nikitin, Ference and Schultz.

  175. PhrankLee says:

    Woogie63: Trade to trade Gordon is when somebody beats him out of that position, until useful vet adding lots to the whole team

    I disagree. My personal feeling was that he would get us maximum trade value at last year’s deadline.

    This summer just moments before the 16th pick he will again be of great value. And one more time at the deadline. But his becoming UFA diminishes the return, imo.

  176. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    Improvement requires at least 1 of those 3 dmen be removed from everyday use this summer, another one or both by the next trade deadline. Retaining all 3 to keep powder dry while improving is unfortunately impossible. That’s why although Shultz is last on my list to move this summer –he does need to go if there are no opportunities to off-load Ference or Nikitin at the draft since he is without a contract. MacT left Chia a handful of grenades that need to be dealt with systematically and there is little room for error right now. The best moves short-term are low risk moves to improve the team (e.g., vet goalie like Anderson) that won’t eat up cap space or serious assets like the #16 or Yak. Those assets should only be in play for top a 3 dman this summer and not gambits like Talbot.

    There are positives to staying the course. Nikitin’s contract ends after 15-16, Ference may retire during a long, tough season and Schultz (on a one-year deal) could turn north or (more likely) find himself on the fringes of being an NHL player.

    Chiarelli can’t chase it if it isn’t there. You could make a case based on the UFA market that it isn’t there.

  177. G Money says:

    Lowetide: I hope you’ll agree that if he can’t find a suitable solution it is best for PC to keep his powder dry, EVEN if it means retaining Nikitin, Ference and Schultz.

    Agreed. Use powder aggressively, but use it wisely, and if you can’t use it wisely, keep it dry.

    Well … except for Ference.

  178. Lowetide says:

    G Money: Agreed.Use powder aggressively, but use it wisely, and if you can’t use it wisely, keep it dry.

    Well … except for Ference.

    I see Ference as the second option. Nikitin may be a better hockey player than Ference now, but it burns me that the organization signs the out of shape Nikitin to $4.5M times two, say nothing about his conditioning (until late) while also torching Marincin at every turn.

    Foolish.

  179. grim.oil says:

    Would you rather:

    A)Acquire two possible #1 goalies and keep the D unchanged
    B)Acquire one possible #1 D and keep the goalies unchanged

    Option A looks pretty similar to last season. You guys and myself were pretty happy with Scrivens/Fasth. How did that turn out? We never added no D worth anything. Boychuck and Leddy would of been great but we were worried about option A. Now take a look at option B. Some say its harder and not as cheap. Well cheap and easy never won the Stanley Cup boys. The title of the thread is “Lets see Action” not “lets bring back Ference, Nikitin and Schultz so we can maybe get a goalie”. Look at the difference Hedman makes in Tampa. The difference Keith makes in Chicago. The difference Pronger made in Edmonton. You guys are looking for a goalie to carry our team when you should be looking for a D to carry our team.

    So again I ask option A or B?
    *Insanity – Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results

  180. Captain Smarmy says:

    grim.oil:
    Would you rather:

    A)Acquire two possible #1 goalies and keep the D unchanged
    B)Acquire one possible #1 D and keep the goalies unchanged

    Option A looks pretty similar to last season. You guys and myself were pretty happy with Scrivens/Fasth. How did that turn out? We never added no D worth anything. Boychuck and Leddy would of been great but we were worried about option A. Now take a look at option B. Some say its harder and not as cheap. Well cheap and easy never won the Stanley Cup boys. The title of the thread is “Lets see Action” not “lets bring back Ference, Nikitin and Schultz so we can maybe get a goalie”. Look at the difference Hedman makes in Tampa. The difference Keith makes in Chicago. The difference Pronger made in Edmonton. You guys are looking for a goalie to carry our team when you should be looking for a D to carry our team.

    So again I ask option A or B?
    *Insanity – Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results

    It doesn’t need to be an either or proposition. You can improve both. The point is that you’re saying no goalie would look good because the defense is shit but Buffalo goalies looked good and their defense is arguably worse.

    Improving the goaltending is the cheapest and easiest thing the team can upgrade. Doesn’t mean they should leave the D as is. Of course, they should improve it.

  181. AsiaOil says:

    You’re singing with my choir brother – but it’s a different mgmt team now unless proven otherwise – and you know how hard a line I took prior to this spring 🙂

    I can actually support a degree of patience this year to get this mess sorted out – as long as the ship is turning the right direction and I believe it is with the new mgmt team. Only evidence has been with the hiring of Nicholson – who hired Chiarelli – who hired TMac. All prudent, sensible moves with the last particularly well managed to avoid the Babcock circus. We just need to continue that process – retain/obtain guys who can help (Gordon/Anderson/dman xxx) and cut out the guys who don’t (Ference/Nikitin/Shultz). There is not a lot of fat in the forwards that isn’t short-term and at least moderately useful (Purcell) or very useful (Gordon/Hendricks). Only bad contract I see at forward is Gadzooks and he’s pocket change for a year.

    This year you get the best goalie you can with the Petry picks – and target a dman with #16 and maybe Shultz thrown in. I deal Yak if the right guy is offered (Kulikov, Larrson). Keep our own picks at #1 (obviously) and #33 unless it’s a deal-breaker on a major dman. You can sell slow and steady for one more year with me because the snake-oil is no longer on offer from the same old crew.

    Lowetide: I see Ference as the second option. Nikitin may be a better hockey player than Ference now, but it burns me that the organization signs the out of shape Nikitin to $4.5M times two, say nothing about his conditioning (until late) while also torching Marincin at every turn.

    Foolish.

  182. grim.oil says:

    Captain Smarmy,

    I know it’s not an either or situation. My point was that D is a bigger priority than goalie. If you choose between A or B that should tell you your priority.
    I never once said no goalie will look good with bad defense. Unless your getting Price quality though.. chances are slim. You are acting like Buffalo was not last in the league. Thats good goaltending? I remember how good everyone thought Miller looked in Buffalo. Did wonders for St.Louis. Perhaps your eye for goalies is off if you think Buffalo goalies are lookin good.
    People are claiming goalies are voodoo yet they are the cheapest and easiest problem to fix. Hahah absolutely hilarious. If they are the cheapest and easiest problem to fix that should drop them lower on the priorities list. If they are that cheap and easy they can be acquired anytime. So which is it, cheap and easy or voodoo? Because if goalies are voodoo (and im not saying they are) then goalies are not easy. Also if D is not cheap and not easy than shouldn’t that be the biggest missing piece. The biggest priority. If we are talking about an offer sheet for Talbot (i know he is not in offer sheet position) how much would we be talking? 7+ Mill like an offer for Dougie? I doubt it and i am sure you doubt it as well. Cheap and easy is not a #1 Priority.

  183. matt says:

    Chiarelli should have a busy summer. There is a lot he needs to do – probably more than can be accomplished in a single season. But some things are low risk and can be done now: Resign Marincin. Resign Aulie. Reign Roy. Buy out Nikitin. Then focus on free agents after the draft.

    The next two things are critical, but achievable:
    -Trade a pick for a proven goaltender (plus other stuff), and if you fail sign one after July 1.
    -Trade for a top D with one or more of Marincin, Yakupov, or Schultz. Sign a D after July 1 if you fail, and preferably two.

    That leaves:

    Hall-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-RNH-Yakupov
    Draisaitl-Lander-Purcell
    Klinkhammer-Gordon-Hendricks
    Gazdic / Roy

    [Sekera] / Klefbom
    Fayne/Nurse [or other new guy]
    Schultz/Ference
    Aulie

    Not so bad, if young. If we are hoping for a super busy July, I’d be happy to see a Williams, etc. materialize, or a two-way centre upgrade on Roy, like Soderberg. But, unlike MacTavish, Chiarelli can’t plan based on hoping for the best. MacTavish’s number one priority was to get four centres. He didn’t. The team suffered. The other productive stuff / reasonable bets he made during the summer didn’t matter as a result. Chiarelli has to focus like a laser on 1G/1D. Getting the low hanging fruit out of the way now helps to do that.

  184. McJeetz says:

    If we could somehow move Schultz, I would love to get Jared Spurgeon from Minny Not necessarily in the same trade. I think Schultz would look good in NJ or Arizona.

    Also I think we could trade Nikitin to Boston for Chara with Boston Retaining a bit of salary. Nothing Crazy… say 1.1 mil. Then Boston has 1 yr of Nikitin then they are free of a huge salary burden. The Oilers have Chara at 5.6 mil for 3 years to carry the mail this year and get less responsibility as the young D get more mature but more importantly, he mentors Nurse Klefbom Marincin et al.

    Start the season with:

    Chara Klefbom
    Spurgeon Fayne
    Marincin Ference
    *Nurse (AHL to start)

    i honestly do not think that would be too hard to make happen and is a huge improvement

  185. matt says:

    McJeetz,

    What is the opportunity cost to Boston? How does Nikitin and -$1.1 M stack up to what Detroit would offer for Chara? Might it be something they actually like, or something very cheap that also expires in one year?

  186. Chris says:

    I confess to not having looked closely at the numbers, however, Eddie Lack has 81 games of NHL experience and a career save percentage of .917. The first 41 of those were at .912 and the most recent 41 at .921. I also think its quite fair to say that the Canucks were no screaming hell during that stretch either. Lack is also 27 years old so this season onward should be he heart of his career.

    Cam Talbot has played 57 games for the New York Rangers over the same two year period. Somewhat worryingly the Rangers have been a very strong defensive team over that period of time. The first 21 games of that sample come in at the eye popping ..941 save percentage while the remaining 36 clock in at .926 and an average of .931 . Talbot is also 27 so again if you can resign him your getting the heart of his career.

    I mean clearly Talbot’s numbers on the surface look better. I think their have to be some concerns about the small number of games he’s played. As the second year as back up seems to be trending back towards league average. To me its more of a gamble with Talbot that you are hoping he can sustain gaudy numbers despite the small sample size. Lack looks like more a sure but less spectacular thing.

    Which raises a huge question of what’s .014 of save percentage worth to you?

  187. jake70 says:

    Lowetide: I see Ference as the second option. Nikitin may be a better hockey player than Ference now, but it burns me that the organization signs the out of shape Nikitin to $4.5M times two, say nothing about his conditioning (until late) while also torching Marincin at every turn.

    Foolish.

    And there sits MacT, out of the decision-making process (and he, Lowe and Howson, still on the payrolll, unbelievably) This is all so messy and dirty because all decisions have led to the lottery win, but this Nikitin thing burns me more than Petry because, although it remains to be seen, I think Petry is and would have been overpaid had he stayed — 9M and a draftt pick though, big unforced error……ugggh.

  188. AsiaOil says:

    G Money….

    You are still failing to admit that small samples produce unreliable results – and the analysis is quite likely representative of a “hasty generalization”. Sample size very small, level of significance not defined (likely very low), undefined margin of error (likely very high). Ignoring this doesn’t make it any more solid. All of that makes the analysis extremely sketchy. Fun to chat about on a blog but I would not trust it as a decision-making tool.

    Using any reasonable set of criteria the Talbot results would not be considered significant. So it doesn’t matter where you slot his numbers into a table of goalie stats over the past two years – the results are insignificant and essentially useless as a predictive tool.

    G Money,

  189. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: If the Petry isn’t there, and that is the case currently, then you may spend the money on another Nikitin. Even Franson, who looks good from here, may not work out (he didn’t in Nashville although that’sa very small sample size).

    Soderberg allows Chiarelli to be creative, spending $4M on a defenseman who is in the discard pile does not. Gordon’s value added to a trade makes sense.

    Agreed. Soderberg opens up trade possibilities with the forward group. Ypu sign Soderberg if you think ypu are going to have to trade some forward depth for a defender or two.

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