SAIL ON, PRINCE ALBERT RAIDER

The 2015 draft, when it comes down to it, is about skill skill and more skill. NHL teams are going to walk away from Sunrise with great riches, and the teams that max out will be rolling 7’s on skill men. Does Peter Chiarelli draft skill players?

2014 BRUINS DRAFT

  • No. 26 overall: R David Pastrnak. Terrific skill winger, undersized and brilliant. Red Line compared him to Mike Cammalleri.
  • No. 56 overall: C Ryan Donato. Skill C with soft hands and a hair slow. Red Line compared him to Sam Gagner.
  • No. 116 overall: F Danton Heinen. A BCHL player who graduated to college and then kicked ass. Skill player.
  • No. 146 overall: L Anders Bjork. Pegged as a checker with skill on draft day, he’s related to Ottawa’s Erik Condra.
  • No. 206 overall: D Emil Johansson. Smooth skating puck moving defender, one service compared his style to Jonas Brodin.

Chiarelli had a better draft than Craig MacTavish despite choosing lower. If we rank these players alongside Edmonton’s 2014 draft, just last season’s performance, we get this:

  1. David Pastrnak: 46GP, 10-17-27 (NHL) and 28 points in 25 AHL games.
  2. Leon Draisaitl: 37GP, 2-7-9 (NHL) and 81 points in 51 junior games (including playoffs)
  3. Danton Heinen: 45 points in 40 games for U. Denver
  4. William Lagesson: 16 points in 52 USHL games
  5. Emil Johansson: 35GP, 0-1-1 in the SHL
  6. Ryan Donato: 10 points in eight USHL games
  7. Tyler Vesel: 23 points in 39 games for Nebraska-Omaha
  8. Anders Bjork: 22 points in 41 games for Notre Dame
  9. Zach Nagelvoort: .906SP with Michigan
  10. Liam Coughlin: 60 points in 54 BCJHL games
  11. Keven Bouchard: .885SP with Val d’Or

Your mileage may vary and I believe Leon is the most talented player in the group, but Pastrnak had the better season. ALL of Heinen, Johansson and Donato appear on track, I’d suggest Lagesson is the only player who would go higher among Oilers picks in a re-draft (maybe Vesel). I do think the Oilers will draft some players with size/grit in this draft (candidates may include Evgeni Svechnikov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Siegenthaler, Erik Cernak, Gabriel Carlsson, Alexander Dergachyov, Nicolas Roy) but they’ll also be able to play. That’s key.

The Hurricanes choose No. 5 and if Noah Hanifin is still available the Oilers should move heaven and earth to get him. I know, you’re saying ‘why lose assets who can help now for a prospect who can’t help in 2015?’ but it’s important to remember the center of the cluster is McDavid—the instant he arrives. A blue depth chart with Hanifin, Nurse and Klefbom would be sensational, and I’m not sure it’s going to take Hanifin two years to get here. It’s worth  phone call for sure. Also, don’t sleep on Provorov, he could also be a target.

nelson capture34

SAIL ON, PRINCE ALBERT RAIDER

Todd Nelson has a new job, with the Detroit Red Wings. I’m seeing a lot of twitter comments wondering why he’d make a sideways move but I don’t see it like that. The Oilers do NOT have Detroit’s reputation for quality and that alone gives them the edge. The club is certainly more high profile in the industry and they’re absolutely drunk (as always) with prospects. I wish him the best, and thank him for his work Petry to Yakimov and back again. It didn’t end like anyone thought or hoped but Nelson was in the spotlight for a few months and he should get a chance to be an NHL head coach in the future. Edmonton got the best available, Nelson will hopefully get his chance soon.

NELSON’S HEROES (OKC BARONS & THEIR NHL GAMES)

  1. Jeff Petry 314
  2. Magnus Paajarvi 228
  3. Justin Schultz 203
  4. Colin McDonald 138
  5. Anton Lander 132
  6. Mark Arcobello 119
  7. Chris VandeVelde 118
  8. Martin Marincin 85
  9. Linus Omark 79
  10. Oscar Klefbom 77
  11. Teemu Hartikainen 52
  12. Will Acton 33
  13. Tyler Pitlick 27
  14. Colten Teubert 24
  15. Iiro Pakarinen 17
  16. Brad Hunt 14
  17. Brandon Davidson 12
  18. Taylor Fedun 11
  19. Andrew Miller 9
  20. Jordan Oesterle 6
  21. David Musil 4
  22. Darnell Nurse 2
  23. Phil Cornet 2
  24. Bogdan Yakimov 1
  25. Laurent Brossoit 1
  26. Curtis Hamilton 1
  27. Tyler Bunz 1
  28. Milan Kytnar 1

It’s easy to forget about the impact Todd Nelson had on this organization, and we will. That’s on us. There are names here that will sustain the Oilers and other organizations for a decade or more. When we see Jeff Petry, or Anton Lander, or Mark Arcobello or Andrew Miller, we won’t think of Todd Nelson and that’s okay, we’re fans. Men like Todd Nelson do tremendous work in the name of their organization and the young people they work with in the minors and we would do well to give them their due from time to time. Godspeed Todd Nelson. You’re a good man.

DRAFTING A GOALIE IN THE FIRST ROUND

A Peter Chiarelli team has done it before (Malcolm Subban) so we have to assume it is possible for the Oilers to use No. 16 overall on Ilya Samsonov. I don’t think it’s wise, but it’s also true I’ll be thrilled if he’s on the ice and playing like a champ in an Oilers uniform three years from now.

  • Craig Button via Matty:I would seriously consider it. I think he’s got No. 1 written all over him, like a Varlamov. He’s got the style of a Varlamov or a Braden Holtby. Maybe not Vasilevskiy because he was a little tighter in his technique than Samsonov at a younger age but he reminds me of Varlamov and Holtby. He’s top-notch.” Source

I think Craig Button is a helluva scout (did good work in Dallas, including Jarome Iginla No. 11 overall) but he had Zach Fucale in the top 10 in 2013 and goalies are voodoo. I wouldn’t make that pick, don’t believe it’s value. We’ll see.

LEHNER?

  • Garrioch on Lehner’s price: League sources say the asking price is simple: A top six forward and a pick. Now, that could change as the Senators get closer to the draft, especially if Murray and his staff aren’t getting what they want in return. For now, the Senators are trying to sell high because they believe they’ve got a good asset here. Source

There’s no damn way, unless ‘top-six forward’ is Teddy Purcell and the draft pick is something outside the top 60. Lehner has concussion issues—even if Edmonton trades for him there will be question marks in regard to the goaling—so I can’t see a deal that involves real assets. That article also mentions Edmonton has had serious convo with the NY Rangers about Talbot and that’s my current bet for Oilers goalie man.

I think we’re now in the range where we could see major moves at any time, so a reminder I’ll have posts up as it happens.

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198 Responses to "SAIL ON, PRINCE ALBERT RAIDER"

  1. monsterbater4 says:

    GL Nelly unless you’re playing the Oilers

  2. Woodguy says:

    Men like Todd Nelson do tremendous work in the name of their organization and the young people they work with in the minors and we would do well to give them their due from time to time. Godspeed Todd Nelson. You’re a good man.

    Well put.

    Nelson almost single-handedly saved a number of prospects from grinding mill that is Edmonton Oilers development system.

    Thanks the Gords that Lowe, Tambellini and MacT aren’t driving the damn bus anymore.

    Good luck Todd!

  3. frjohnk says:

    LT,

    Hanifin or Provorv would be great.

    Which asset(s) are you giving up?

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Nelson is going to the team that is famous for letting product ripen on the vine. He will have success there and Detroit will be very pleased with his work. 5 years from now (hopefully less) he will be a head coach in the NHL, deservedly so.

  5. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    frjohnk,

    16 and Yakupov?

  6. su_dhillon says:

    Todd Nelson comes off as a very likable guy and no question he did a lot of good work with a lot of you Oiler prospects, wish him well and hope he gets a gig in the bigs soon. That being said I’m thrilled that the Oilers went the route they did this time.

    So I’m wondering if you guys think we will see a major ‘sail on’ in the scouting ranks after the draft or will it be a more gradual change? At least in the pro ranks, where I think most of us would like to see changes, I would imagine it will be a slower process and probably correlated to how easily Chia can get some of his guys out of Boston.

    Will we see a major exodus of scouts after the draft? At least the guy who keeps pushing for the BCHLers?

  7. Ducey says:

    2 Q’s:

    1)Do the Oilers get a draft pick for losing Nelson?

    2)Why does Chia’s draft record matter? Isn’t he supposed to stay out of this draft due to his knowledge of the Bruins scouting reports?

  8. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    LT,

    Hanifin or Provorv would be great.

    Which asset(s) are you giving up?

    NO way! I’ll say Leon and there will be five years of ‘Lowetide hates Draisaitl’ posts.

  9. Rondo says:

    Corey Pronman was asked how does Ilya Samsonov compare to Vasilevskiy in his draft year?

    “Not the same ballpark. Vasi at same age already been in 3 IIHF Under 18s, a WJC, and had dominated the Junior level. “

  10. Hall Awaits says:

    If you can trade Purcell and the Senators own 3rd rounder back to them for Lehner then sure.
    If you have to take a guy like Cowen back to save value on the pick being traded then no.

  11. Rondo says:

    Grant McCagg head scout at Mckeens had this to say regarding Craig Buttons.

    “Button’s list has nothing to do with reality..you can like it because it is completely wrong if you like and has your home boy way higher than he will go…it is not the list of a “scout”..it is the list of a blindfolded dart thrower. He was a poor scout in Dallas and he was even worse in Calgary. He got to scout about 30 junior games this season..he has no clue who is good and who sucks..which is quite apparent by his list.”

  12. russ99 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    frjohnk,

    16 and Yakupov?

    Edit: Didn’t see the original proposal. Still, Yak and #16 to move up into the top 5 is another magic beans trade.

    Sad to see Nelson go, but he’s landing in a fantastic spot, and McLellan gets to pick his entire staff.

    Win on both counts.

  13. G Money says:

    Bye Todd. Thanks for your good work. Disappointed that you view an Associate Coach (assumed) job working with Todd McLellan and coaching Connor McDavid in the NHL is less appealing than a head coach job elsewhere in the AHL.

    But there’s always more to a decision than meets the eye …

    LT: Lehner has concussion issues—even if Edmonton trades for him there will be question marks in regard to the goaling—so I can’t see a deal that involves real assets. That article also mentions Edmonton has had serious convo with the NY Rangers about Talbot and that’s my current bet for Oilers goalie man.

    I published a slightly different take from the usual on assessing goalies a while back, using ‘time to stabilization of cumulative sv%’ as my metric. It wasn’t intended to be particularly rigorous, suffering from both a small sample size and selection bias, but it was exploratory. I did feel it was a useful learning exercise, enough that I’m firmly in the Talbot+Neuvirth camp as a result.

    WheatNOil (with contributions from TheGreatMutato) has, since then, been working feverishly on extending that analysis, looking at both a longer timeframe for selection (helping the sample size issue) and on looking at all goalies, including those who washed out (addressing the selection bias issue). I am working that up in the background, and should have it posted soon. It is *really* good stuff (IIDSSM).

    One conclusion from that work? Stay the hell away from Lehner. STAY AWAY!

    Another conclusion: small sample size be damned, Talbot is going to be the real deal.

  14. serum114 says:

    I wonder if they would try to move from 33 to 25 (or thereabouts) if Samsonov slips. I don’t see them taking him at 16, but if he’s around in the mid-20s and they like him a lot, they have the ammo to jump up…

  15. Ribs says:

    So who’s coaching the farm team, then? I sure hope qualified coaching is put in place as they will be tending to the heart of the McDavid cluster. It’s important.

    As far as the Sens goalies go, maybe Murray hasn’t learned anything and would take a Cory Conacher and a 4th for Ben Bishop type deal again?

    I’d prefer Anderson, myself. A solid veteran presence would be very welcome back there.

  16. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Rondo:
    Grant McCagg head scout at Mckeens had this to say regarding Craig Buttons.

    “Button’s list has nothing to do with reality..you can like it because it is completely wrong if you like and has your home boy way higher than he will go…it is not the list of a “scout”..it is the list of a blindfolded dart thrower. He was a poor scout in Dallas and he was even worse in Calgary. He got to scout about 30 junior games this season..he has no clue who is good and who sucks..which is quite apparent by his list.”

    So I take it McCagg won’t be inviting Mr. Button to his kid’s birthday party. Damn.

    I mean, I agree, maybe not about his record as an NHL scout but certainly about his lists… but Damn.

  17. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    I would say a comment like that reflects poorly on the commentator .

    One might ask wtf does Mccagg have for credentials other than watching like most of us on this site.

  18. Woodguy says:

    In yesterday’s thread I threatened to do a 5v5 pts IPP for CHL Dmen.

    Had some time this morning so I did it.

    To recap, IPP is “Individual Points Percentage”

    Its the number of goals that a player got a point on when his team was playing. (need to adjust team goals via gp by the player)

    Using IPP to rate CHL Dmen has proven to be informative in the past (i.e. I think Subban would have ranked 2nd or 3rd among CHL Dmen via IPP and was the 11th CHL Dman taken in his draft)

    Here’s the Dman list LT got from PPP rated via IPP using all situations scoring.

    Roy – .288
    Vande Sompel – .255 (note: small man 5’10” 182, drop in ranking)
    Meloche – .237
    Andersson – .235 (note: import rookie – increase in ranking)
    Juulsen – .232
    Wortherspoon – .226 – Math likes him way more than Carlo
    Zboril – .218 (note: import rookie – increase in ranking)
    Provorov – .217
    Dunn – .207
    Brisesbois – .194
    Chabot – .181
    Pilon – .163
    Carlo – .154 – rated too high due to size
    Dermott – .153 – AHJ effect. Scored lots, but IPP low.

    Now, I’ve done the same thing (h/t to LT and Mr. DeBakey) using ONLY 5v5 data.

    As well all know the ability to drive 5v5 offense is an excellent indicator of player value.

    Here they are:

    Wortherspoon .21
    Roy .195
    Meloche .187
    Juulsen .168
    Chabot .166
    Vande Sopel .164
    Dunn .153
    Provorov .144
    Pilon .133
    Andersson .132
    Zboril .129
    Carlo .118
    Brisebois .116
    Dermott .110

    I went back and checked Wortherspoon’s numbers 3 time to make sure it was right.

    Having and all situations IPP over .20 is good (over .25 is very good)

    I don’t have enough data to know how rare a 5v5 IPP over .200 is, but you *know* its a pretty great indicator.

    I’m also happy that one of my fav’s Meloche ranks very high. He’s the full package. Size, skating, offense and nasty. I like him a ton.

    Roy scores very high as well.

    Wortherspoon blows me away though for a kid ranked in the 60’s.

    Here’s some highlights from his Red Line Report:

    “very solid and steady, and always makes the right plays with the puck”
    “..smooth skating stride and good acceleration….very good vision and we love his crisp tape-tp-tape outlet passes”
    “One of the youngest players in the draft”
    “slim frame;needs to add weight and upper body strength, but still love to throw his weight around”

    Given that Worthersppon is killing it via IPP and is one of the youngest players in the draft I’d be all over this guy.

    Has “late second round sleeper” written all over him.

    6’0 170lbs

    His brother Tyler (2nd round CAL pick in 2011) has filled out to 6’2, 210lbs, so size might not be an issue when he’s ready.

    Boy I like him a lot.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Grant McCagg head scout at Mckeens had this to say regarding Craig Buttons.

    “Button’s list has nothing to do with reality..you can like it because it is completely wrong if you like and has your home boy way higher than he will go…it is not the list of a “scout”..it is the list of a blindfolded dart thrower. He was a poor scout in Dallas and he was even worse in Calgary. He got to scout about 30 junior games this season..he has no clue who is good and who sucks..which is quite apparent by his list.”

    Wow.

    If that’s what he said publicly I’d love to hear what he’d say privately.

  20. oilersjo says:

    From a Raiders fan to a former Raiders Captain. God speed job well done and we are confident you will continue to make us proud.

  21. Lowetide says:

    I understand that people have opinions and that Craig Button can be a target, but let’s review some of the things he did as a scout/director with the Stars:

    1992: Jere Lehtinen, fourth round
    1993: Jamie Langenbrunner, second round
    1994: Marty Turco, fifth round
    1995: Jarome Iginla, first round
    1997: Brenden Morrow, first round

    He found some very good players and not just in the first round. It’s easy to use Button as a target and some of his rankings encourage it, but I think calling him a fool is itself foolish,

  22. Dominoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    *Slow Clap*

    Nice find, Woodguy.. Interesting new assessment tool you’ve crafted..

  23. slopitch says:

    Id have time for Lehner as a #2. His save % in the AHL as a 20-21 year old was elite. A couple years ago he was on par with Markstrom as a prospect. A concussion and a couple bad games can ruin save% for a guy who plays less then 25 games. That being said, I wouldn’t even pay a 2nd rounder let alone a 2nd and a top 6 forward. There are less risky options available and there seems to be lots of comparable goaltenders available (granted not many elite ones).

    Oh man. Excited by the prospect of 16+ for the 5th. No chance in hell I include Yak in that package. Its Yak straight up or walk away. There is going to be a very good player available at 16. Really high on Provorov and Hanifan.

    My dream draft:
    Yak for #5 (Hanifan)
    Draft Eriksson Ek (he’s a Swedish Kesler)
    Draft Meloche (beauty IPP)
    Trade 57+4th for Talbot

  24. Магия 10 says:

    “I’m seeing a lot of twitter comments wondering why he’d make a sideways move but I don’t see it like that.”

    LT, I think it’s very straightforward. It’s clear that he prefers to be an AHL head coach until he gets another NHL shot. After the last few years I would think the Oilers are loathe to hire anything other than veteran NHL head coaches next time as well. A sideways move clears his path of Oiler’s coaching carousel fallout.

  25. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. His list can be comical, as we’ve discussed he often has a few people wildly out of position, likely as a means to generate conversation since he’s a TV personality first and a scout second.

    His record as a GM isn’t necessarily hall of fame worthy, but his record as a scout isn’t bad.

    I can’t believe how harsh that comment was though.

  26. slopitch says:

    Woodguy,

    Still waiting for that IPP blog post 😉

  27. Rondo says:

    Woodguy: Woiw.

    If that’s what he said publicly I’d love to hear what he’d say privately.

    Grant McCagg has been on LT’s show maybe he should try to get him on again and ask direct questions , he does not seem afraid to answer any question.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: Grant McCagg has been on LT’s show maybe he should try to get him on again and ask direct questions , he does not seem afraid to answer any question.

    I would never ask that question.

  29. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    No, I did not mean that question but I would be interested on his opinion regarding Jeremy Roy.

  30. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    I’m sure you have lots of free time, so will you do a retrospective on past D draftees and see where their IPP ranks vs their career today? I honestly have no idea if that is even possible, junior data being what it is, but it is a fascinating tool you are refining there.

    But what catchy name will it take?

    The Wood Rule? Macleod Factor? Darcy Datum?

  31. Pouzar says:

    •Jonathan Willis of the Edmonton Jounal: Willis thinks the Oilers should try to offer sheet Bruins defenseman Dougie Hamilton to a deal over $7 million. Jason Gregor on the idea of an offer sheet for Hamilton.

    “I’d be surprised if a team extends and offer sheet for Hamilton. He is good, but how good will he become is the question. I spoke to four different NHL scouts and they all thought he’d be a solid top-pairing defender, but none were willing to say he’d be a lock top-ten #1 defender. If you pay him over $7 million/year you are expecting him to be that very soon.”

  32. raventalon40 says:

    This is a bit off topic, but has anyone heard about the legal proceedings with Slava Voynov?

    I wonder if his market value has been impacted enough to be worth acquiring? Sure he’s a scabby human being who hits his wife, but he would certainly be an upgrade on our D-corp.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    No, I did not mean that question but I would be interested on his opinion regardingJeremy Roy.

    Ah. I’ll book him for next week and ask him just that question!

  34. Jaxon says:

    If, you are trying to draft a cluster around McDavid, then I would not be spending assets on drafting D. I think D for McDavid was Nurse’s year as D take a couple years longer to develop and reach their peak. I think a smarter move would be to trade for someone like NYI Ryan Pulock, NJD Steven Santini, or WSH Madison Bowey. I really like Bowey, but suspect he’d cost a fair bit (take some bad salary back with him and give a 79th 2015 & 2nd round in 2017?)I also still like the idea of signing Hamilton to a 5×7.5 Offer Sheet. If you look at the draft picks in the 13th to 30th overall range in the 6 years from 2005-2010, I think you’ll be hard-pressed to find even one player that you’d trade straight up for Dougie Hamilton. The only ones I’d even consider are Rask, Giroux, Varlamov and Karlsson, and I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on any of those, if I think Hamilton’s projection is what many believe it is, ie. a dominant minute crunching D in the mould of Chara, Doughty, Hedman, Weber, Pronger. That’s only 4 possible players as good as Hamilton out of 108. By that rudimentry math, those 2 first round picks in compensation have about a 7% chance of being as good as Hamilton. Add in the 2nd & 3rd and maybe, maybe you have a 10% shot at getting another player of Hamilton’s quality. If best player wins a transaction I’d bet on the Oilers winning that one. I think the Oielrs 1st pick should be a speedy skilled RW that likes to hit and get in the corners to play with Hall & McDavid or with Draisaitl and maybe Slepyshev. Meier, Rantanen if they fall to 16, then Boeser, Sprong, Guryanov and maybe Roslovic. Then at 33, I’d go for a big RD like Nicolas Meloche, Thomas Schemitsch or Rasmus Andersson.

  35. raventalon40 says:

    Pouzar:
    •Jonathan Willis of the Edmonton Jounal: Willis thinks the Oilers should try to offer sheet Bruins defenseman Dougie Hamilton to a deal over $7 million. Jason Gregor on the idea of an offer sheet for Hamilton.

    “I’d be surprised if a team extends and offer sheet for Hamilton. He is good, but how good will he become is the question. I spoke to four different NHL scouts and they all thought he’d be a solid top-pairing defender, but none were willing to say he’d be a lock top-ten #1 defender. If you pay him over $7 million/year you are expecting him to be that very soon.”

    Maybe I just saw him good, but I honestly thought he looked like their best player down the stretch.

  36. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    raventalon40,

    No thanks.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    •Jonathan Willis of the Edmonton Jounal: Willis thinks the Oilers should try to offer sheet Bruins defenseman Dougie Hamilton to a deal over $7 million. Jason Gregor on the idea of an offer sheet for Hamilton.

    “I’d be surprised if a team extends and offer sheet for Hamilton. He is good, but how good will he become is the question. I spoke to four different NHL scouts and they all thought he’d be a solid top-pairing defender, but none were willing to say he’d be a lock top-ten #1 defender. If you pay him over $7 million/year you are expecting him to be that very soon.”

    I mentioned in the screaming targets post that for me Hamilton would be a fantastic OS candidate. I’ve seen him a bunch and imo he’s a perfect fit.

  38. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    In yesterday’s thread I threatened to do a 5v5 pts IPP for CHL Dmen.

    Had some time this morning so I did it.

    To recap, IPP is “Individual Points Percentage”

    Its the number of goals that a player got a point on when his team was playing. (need to adjust team goals via gp by the player)

    Using IPP to rate CHL Dmen has proven to be informative in the past (i.e. I think Subban would have ranked 2nd or 3rd among CHL Dmen via IPPand was the 11th CHL Dman taken in his draft)

    Here’s the Dman list LT got from PPP rated via IPP using all situations scoring.

    Roy – .288
    Vande Sompel – .255 (note: small man 5’10” 182, drop in ranking)
    Meloche – .237
    Andersson – .235 (note: import rookie – increase in ranking)
    Juulsen – .232
    Wortherspoon – .226 – Math likes him way more than Carlo
    Zboril – .218 (note: import rookie – increase in ranking)
    Provorov – .217
    Dunn – .207
    Brisesbois – .194
    Chabot – .181
    Pilon – .163
    Carlo – .154 – rated too high due to size
    Dermott – .153 – AHJ effect. Scored lots, but IPP low.

    Now, I’ve done the same thing (h/t to LT and Mr. DeBakey) using ONLY 5v5 data.

    As well all know the ability to drive 5v5 offense is an excellent indicator of player value.

    Here they are:

    Wortherspoon .21
    Roy .195
    Meloche .187
    Juulsen .168
    Chabot .166
    Vande Sopel .164
    Dunn .153
    Provorov .144
    Pilon .133
    Andersson .132
    Zboril .129
    Carlo .118
    Brisebois .116
    Dermott .110

    I went back and checked Wortherspoon’s numbers 3 time to make sure it was right.

    Having and all situations IPP over .20 is good (over .25 is very good)

    I don’t have enough data to know how rare a 5v5 IPP over .200 is, but you *know* its a pretty great indicator.

    I’m also happy that one of my fav’s Meloche ranks very high.He’s the full package.Size, skating, offense and nasty.I like him a ton.

    Roy scores very high as well.

    Wortherspoon blows me away though for a kid ranked in the 60’s.

    Here’s some highlights from his Red Line Report:

    “very solid and steady, and always makes the right plays with the puck”
    “..smooth skating stride and good acceleration….very good vision and we love his crisp tape-tp-tape outlet passes”
    “One of the youngest players in the draft”
    “slim frame;needs to add weight and upper body strength, but still love to throw his weight around”

    Given that Worthersppon is killing it via IPP and is one of the youngest players in the draft I’d be all over this guy.

    Has “late second round sleeper” written all over him.

    6’0 170lbs

    His brother Tyler (2nd round CAL pick in 2011) has filled out to 6’2, 210lbs, so size might not be an issue when he’s ready.

    Boy I like him a lot.

    Calgary picks at 45, 52 and 52.

    If the Oilers don’t take Wotherspoon at 33 I am fairly certain he won’t be there at 57.

    Maybe another team takes him, because from what you’ve just described he sounds an awful lot like TJ Brodie.

  39. raventalon40 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    raventalon40,

    No thanks.

    I’d like to hear your reasons, if you don’t mind my asking.

    I think we can pull a similar Colin Fraser type deal here, where we take the LA Kings problems off their hands. Plus his salary cap hit doesn’t count as the NHL is providing salary cap relief during his suspension.

    In my mind it’s a risk worth taking.

    We can send them Boyd Gordon or Teddy Purcell, retain some of the salary, and they can send us Voynov and a pick (the latter part as a thank you for taking the problem off their hands). This would also free up a bit of salary to sign a Jay Beagle or a Carl Soderberg.

    Gordon can be their Stoll replacement. Purcell could be their Williams replacement, which, in the case of Teddy, is a player familiar to them.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Dominoiler:
    Woodguy,

    *Slow Clap*

    Nice find, Woodguy.. Interesting new assessment tool you’ve crafted..

    Thanks.

    Its not mine, but after looking at some previous drafts I think its a good (albeit incomplete) tool.

    When I get time I’m going to go back and rank CHL Dmen in older drafts using IPP and see if it can teach us anything.

    At first blush its a pretty good indicator. Not foolproof or absolute by any means though.

  41. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide,

    Staples mentioned a few days ago that he’d offer sheet Larsson in NJ. What do you guys think about that? He’d come far cheaper than Hamilton. Not sure about NJ’s cap situation though.

  42. Jesse says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting that Kylington didn’t make the list — was that due to his lack of offense or due to him being left off the list for some other reason?

  43. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    Bye Todd.Thanks for your good work.Disappointed that you view an Associate Coach (assumed) job working with Todd McLellan and coaching Connor McDavid in the NHL is less appealing than a head coach job elsewhere in the AHL.

    But there’s always more to a decision than meets the eye …

    LT: Lehner has concussion issues—even if Edmonton trades for him there will be question marks in regard to the goaling—so I can’t see a deal that involves real assets. That article also mentions Edmonton has had serious convo with the NY Rangers about Talbot and that’s my current bet for Oilers goalie man.

    I published a slightly different take from the usual on assessing goalies a while back, using ‘time to stabilization of cumulative sv%’ as my metric.It wasn’t intended to be particularly rigorous, suffering from both a small sample size and selection bias, but it was exploratory.I did feel it was a useful learning exercise, enough that I’m firmly in the Talbot+Neuvirth camp as a result.

    WheatNOil (with contributions from TheGreatMutato) has, since then, been working feverishly on extending that analysis, looking at both a longer timeframe for selection (helping the sample size issue) and on looking at all goalies, including those who washed out (addressing the selection bias issue).I am working that up in the background, and should have it posted soon.It is *really* good stuff (IIDSSM).

    One conclusion from that work?Stay the hell away from Lehner.STAY AWAY!

    Another conclusion: small sample size be damned, Talbot is going to be the real deal.

    Lehner has interesting numbers given how much hype there is about him. His even-strength save percentage has been trending steadily downwards since his 37th game in the NHL (he’s now at 85). I can pinpoint it to November 24, 2013 after a game against Carolina. Since then, his career save percentage has been trending steadily down.

    His career is young, there is obviously a good chance he rebounds, and goalies are voodoo, but his even-strength save percentage and his adjusted save percentage over his career are no screaming hell. Now you add in a concussion? I don’t believe this is a good bet. There are better options out there, even without the concussion.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    Jaxon:
    If, you are trying to draft a cluster around McDavid, then you should not be drafting D. I think D for McDavid was Nurse’s year as D take a couple years longer to develop and reach their peak. I think a smarter move would be to trade for someone like NYI Ryan Pulock, NJD Steven Santini, or WSH Madison Bowey. I really like Bowey but suspect he’d cost a fair bit (take some bad salary back with him and give a 79th 2015 & 2nd round in 2017?)I also still like the idea of signing Hamilton to a 5×7.5 Offer Sheet. If you look at the draft picks in the 13th to 30th overall range in the 6 years from 2005-2010, I think you’ll be hard-pressed to find even one player that you’d trade straight up for Dougie Hamilton. The only ones I’d even consider are Rask, Giroux, Varlamov and Karlsson, and I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on any of those, if I think Hamilton’s projection is what many believe it is, ie. a dominant minute crunching D in the mould of Chara, Doughty, Hedman, Weber, Pronger. That’s only 4 possible players as good as Hamilton out of 108. Those 2 first round picks in compensation have about a 7% chance of being as good as Hamilton. Add in the 2nd & 3rd and maybe you have a 10% shot at getting another player of Hamilton’s quality. If best player wins a transaction I’d bet on the Oilers winning that one.

    Jaxon: If best player wins a transaction I’d bet on the Oilers winning that one.

    Which is why Bruins match. You’ ll be taking on more pain before there’s enough pain for the Bruins to even think about walking.Think more cash and 4 number ones. Now you’re getting to 50% as in tossing a coin. And does the 10% understate risk that Hamilton doesn’t reach his upside. Oil were lucky that Sabres matched on Vanek.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu,

    slopitch,

    I guess I know my next post.

    Don’t know when I’ll get time, but I’ll start grinding the data during spare moments.

    CHLstats.com has 5v5 data going back to the 2012 draft.

    Dumba and Reilly had 5v5 IPP over .200

    Dumba’s an IPP monster, the next couple years will be very interesting to watch him as he’s finally ready for the NHL.

    Watched a few Wild games where I thought he dominated shifts. Was playing 3rd, but he’s young and he’s coming.

    I didn’t come up with the idea, so I’m not going to name it. Boring old IPP and 5v5 IPP is fine with me.

    The next step is figuring out what’s a good IPP in other leagues (NCAA, USHL, SWE, KHL) or if its even reliable in leagues that don’t hand out 2nd assists often.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Jesse:
    Woodguy,

    Interesting that Kylington didn’t make the list — was that due to his lack of offense or due to him being left off the list for some other reason?

    Its CHL Dmen only.

    Also why you don’t see Werenski and Hanifin

  47. Woodguy says:

    Bad Seed:
    Lowetide,

    Staples mentioned a few days ago that he’d offer sheet Larsson in NJ.What do you guys think about that?He’d come far cheaper than Hamilton.Not sure about NJ’s cap situation though.

    One does not offer sheet Lou unless one wants to sleep with the fishes.

    NJD is swimming in cap space.

    I’d suggest a trade would work better there.

  48. Oddspell says:

    Pouzar:
    •Jonathan Willis of the Edmonton Jounal: Willis thinks the Oilers should try to offer sheet Bruins defenseman Dougie Hamilton to a deal over $7 million. Jason Gregor on the idea of an offer sheet for Hamilton.

    “I’d be surprised if a team extends and offer sheet for Hamilton. He is good, but how good will he become is the question. I spoke to four different NHL scouts and they all thought he’d be a solid top-pairing defender, but none were willing to say he’d be a lock top-ten #1 defender. If you pay him over $7 million/year you are expecting him to be that very soon.”

    I don’t even know if I’d agree with that assessment. The last “top f the league” dmen who were signed (unless I’m forgetting someone) in their prime were Subban, Weber and Suter. Each of these deals were at least $7.5 mil AAV. If the going rate for signing a bonafide top pairing defenceman this year is 6 million AAV on the low end and 9 million AAV on the high end, I think 7-7.5 million AAV is totally reasonable for a guy who will likely reach the low end and has a better chance than most at reaching the top end.

  49. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Bar_Qu,

    slopitch,

    I guess I know my next post.

    Don’t know when I’ll get time, but I’ll start grinding the data during spare moments.

    Maybe if you spent less time golfing. Slacker.

  50. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: NO way! I’ll say Leon and there will be five years of ‘Lowetide hates Draisaitl’ posts.

    You never did like him. It’s no wonder Rom doesn’t hang out here anymore!

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money: Bye Todd. Thanks for your good work. Disappointed that you view an Associate Coach (assumed) job working with Todd McLellan and coaching Connor McDavid in the NHL is less appealing than a head coach job elsewhere in the AHL.

    Do you know that he was offered that post?

  52. zatch says:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/6/17/8796645/off-season-begins-berniers-partner-posts-mysterious-comment

    PPP noting that on Bernier’s wife’s Instagram, she answered a question about why a pic of their son had no Leafs shirt by acknowledging there IS a reason but she can’t talk about it yet.

    That doesn’t sound like he’s getting re-uped. Is Edmonton possible/how do we feel about him coming to Edmonton?

  53. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Calgary picks at 45, 52 and 52.

    If the Oilers don’t take Wotherspoon at 33 I am fairly certain he won’t be there at 57.

    Maybe another team takes him, because from what you’ve just described he sounds an awful lot like TJ Brodie.

    Brodie’s IPP was .131

    Not a crystal ball eh?

  54. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Maybe if you spent less time golfing. Slacker.

    Guilty

  55. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Guilty

    Let me get this straight…

    We are now assessing a players worth by measuring his Woody?

    Oh my.

  56. Yeti says:

    G Money: Another conclusion: small sample size be damned, Talbot is going to be the real deal.

    There is only one sensible reply to that, and it sounds a little like this.

  57. Pajamah says:

    Lowetide: Lowetide hates Draisaitl

    Well, now its a thing.

    Admit it, you would see him traded to find balance wouldn’t you?

    Completely irrational nonsense.

    But you did hate Smid though….

  58. Yeti says:

    zatch: PPP noting that on Bernier’s wife’s Instagram, she answered a question about why a pic of their son had no Leafs shirt by acknowledging there IS a reason but she can’t talk about it yet.

    Maybe he vomited all over it?

  59. G Money says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    I don’t know for sure (that’s why I put assumed), but the verbal out of TMc and ChiaPete was that they had sat down and discussed a role, and that it was now in TNel’s court to make a decision. A fair bit of reading between the lines on that, to be sure.

  60. Jaxon says:

    Oddspell: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/6/17/8796645/off-season-begins-berniers-partner-posts-mysterious-comment

    And considering that Phaneuf gets 7.0, I’d pay 7.5 for Hamilton all day.

    EDIT: I have no idea why that link is there.

  61. Hammers says:

    frjohnk:
    LT,

    Hanifin or Provorv would be great.

    Which asset(s) are you giving up?

    Numbers 16 and 33 if it was me with a sweetener like Gordon .

  62. Dicky94 says:

    What would it take to get Emelin out of Montreal if he was to waive his Ntc. It is rumoured he might be moved. He would be a top pairing d man in Edmonton? No?

  63. zatch says:

    Yeti,

    *Sad trombone noise*

    I wouldn’t resign Toronto if I were in their position. I don’t think they will either. He’s intriguing and may not cost much to get his rights.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Let me get this straight…

    We are now assessing a players worth by measuring his Woody?

    Oh my.

    AND we have a name!

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Isn’t that what everything in the end turns to.

  66. zatch says:

    Dicky94,

    As someone who watched a lot of Habs games with a Habsy fiance, and read some blogs too, it would take almsot nothing, because he is awful and completly overpaid.

    He’s the kind of guy Edmonton kept going after in the past. As if bad #4 DMen are sooper sekirtly good. I would throw something at the TV if that happened.

  67. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    So the buyout period starts today?

  68. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: I mentioned in the screaming targets post that for me Hamilton would be a fantastic OS candidate. I’ve seen him a bunch and imo he’s a perfect fit.

    I think so too

  69. frjohnk says:

    Hammers: Numbers 16 and 33 if it was me with a sweetener like Gordon .

    The 16th and 33rd might bring you to 11 or 12.
    Leafs, Canes, Devils are in rebuild mode. They wouldn’t want a guy (Gordon) that is a year from UFA.

  70. Dicky94 says:

    zatch,

    So he will be paired with Nikkitin on the top line is what your saying. Lol. And never throw stuff at your tv. Slam your remote into the floor as they are easier to replace. I’m on my third one in two years watching the Oilers. Looks like my remote slamming might be coming to an end.

  71. hunter1909 says:

    Imagine if: Chiarelli comes to town and starts offer sheeting and trading away players for other team’s castoffs…for the first few weeks or whatever the shine will be on but imagine if the trades for whatever reason don’t take, instead they simply fuck everything up? Then what?

    THIS is why Chiarelli’s highly unlikely to do much before Christmas on the trade front. He needs to go “Full Tambo” and evaluate his cards/poker chips. Unlike certain hack journalists who know their “Clickbait 101” approach to internet success…

  72. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Maybe if you spent less time golfing. Slacker.

    I am offering up my services right now.

    When and where is yer tee time WG?

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: NO way! I’ll say Leon and there will be five years of ‘Lowetide hates Draisaitl’ posts.

    Don’t forget Yakupov. You REALLY hate Yakupov.

  74. Captain Smarmy says:

    This is to nobody in particular but I can’t wait until the draft and free agency is done so I can stop reading trade proposals (mostly bad ones) and can enjoy reading what I like most. (people dissecting what the Oilers have actually done rather then what they might do)

  75. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I mentioned in the screaming targets post that for me Hamilton would be a fantastic OS candidate. I’ve seen him a bunch and imo he’s a perfect fit.

    Hamilton at 7.5 M or so would definitely increase the salarys of the second cluster (nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom, yak) if these guys shoot the lights out on their next contract. I didn’t mention McDavid as we know he gonna get paid.

    I love Hamilton but wonder if a OS is just opening the cap hell door a bit more.

  76. hunter1909 says:

    Pouzar,

    Hi what’s an email address I can contact you on? You’re a Winner in the 2014-15 Oiler’s Death March contest. Prizes are going out to the top 2014-15 prognosticators. Congratulations.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Dicky94:
    What would it take to get Emelin out of Montreal if he was to waive his Ntc. It is rumoured he might be moved. He would be a top pairing d man in Edmonton?No?

    Nope.

    I owned him in a keeper league.

    He’s a 3rd pairing 2.5MM Dman who gets over paid and over played.

  78. Dora Dad says:

    It might just be me, but Provorov doesn’t seem to be an explosive skater to my eye. Am I missing something? I would have thought his skating would be much better considering his draft ranking and expected number.

    Thoughts from the Lowetidians?

  79. Marc says:

    frjohnk: The 16th and 33rd might bring you to 11 or 12.
    Leafs, Canes, Devils are in rebuild mode. They wouldn’t want a guy (Gordon) that is a year from UFA.

    I bet they’d think hard about 16 + Edmonton’s 2016 first for 5 this year.

  80. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Hamilton at 7.5 M or so would definitely increase the salarys of the second cluster (nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom, yak) if these guys shoot the lights out on their next contract. I didn’t mention McDavid as we know he gonna get paid.

    I love Hamilton but wonder if a OS is just opening the cap hell door a bit more.

    There’s no way to keep the remnants of the Hall cluster anyway. When McDavid is selected, clock begins to tick on every roster player not named Nuge or Hall (and Oscar).

  81. wheatnoil says:

    Dicky94:
    What would it take to get Emelin out of Montreal if he was to waive his Ntc. It is rumoured he might be moved. He would be a top pairing d man in Edmonton?No?

    I’m not convinced Emelin would be a top pairing D-man in Edmonton. At $4.1M x 2 more years I’m not totally convinced he would be a substantial upgrade on Nikitin.

    Here’s Emelin’s Hero chart… http://public.tableau.com/shared/3NKS5X8WW?:display_count=yes
    as well as his impact on linemates… http://public.tableau.com/shared/TK9KNTDBZ?:display_count=yes

    I kind of like those charts as I find them fairly useful. Essentially, the first chart finds Emelin to be a bottom-pairing option if you average out his possession numbers for the last 3 years. The second chart finds that he tends to have a negative drag on his linemates offence and defense, although the impact on defense is somewhat neutral.

    Compare that to Nikitin. The numbers don’t love Nikitin, but they certainly like him slightly better than the eye-test. Hero Chart… http://public.tableau.com/shared/SHKX46YWG?:display_count=yes
    Impact on line-mates… http://public.tableau.com/shared/G7STQ5S8M?:display_count=yes

    Nikitin’s Hero chart indicates he’s some between a bottom pairing and top 4 option. Now, as I said, this chart is averaged over the last 3 years. Nikitin had more success 3 years ago in Columbus than he had this last year, so those older numbers are probably pulling him up into the top 4 role. I suspect if you looked at just this last year, he’d be firmly in the bottom pairing role. Nikitin’s impact on linemates also show a trend towards a negative drag on possession, similar but perhaps not quite as bad as Emelin’s.

    In summary, I think Emelin would be a poor addition. If Montreal was going to offload any of their D, I think it would be cheaper (and a better bet) to acquire Gilbert back for the one year at $2.8M he has left on his contract.

  82. Pouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    Pouzar,

    Hi what’s an email address I can contact you on? You’re a Winner in the 2014-15 Oiler’s Death March contest. Prizes are going out to the top 2014-15 prognosticators.Congratulations.

    er……thx???? LOL….what did I do deserve this?????

    vaughn_woodruff@msn.com

    EDIT: ohhhhhhh…that contest! BOOYAH…who says pessimism doesn’t pay!

  83. Showerhead says:

    frjohnk: Hamilton at 7.5 M or so would definitely increase the salarys of the second cluster (nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom, yak) if these guys shoot the lights out on their next contract. I didn’t mention McDavid as we know he gonna get paid.

    I love Hamilton but wonder if a OS is just opening the cap hell door a bit more.

    I think the risk of inflated contracts exists but only if you consider Hamilton at $7.5M a significant overpay.

    I do think you’re onto something – player salaries definitely do get negotiated relative to comparable player salaries.

    That said, if Hamilton is the player we all hope he is, no one is projecting Klefbom or even Nurse at quite that level. They’ll have to earn whatever $ they get and one could reasonable assume Hamilton’s $7.5M would be the outer bookend. If it’s fair (is it? you tell me) then I’m not worried about the rest of the roster $ exploding without the players really earning it.

  84. Ducey says:

    Lowetide:
    I understand that people have opinions and that Craig Button can be a target, but let’s review some of the things he did as a scout/director with the Stars:

    1992: Jere Lehtinen, fourth round
    1993: Jamie Langenbrunner, second round
    1994: Marty Turco, fifth round
    1995: Jarome Iginla, first round
    1997: Brenden Morrow, first round

    He found some very good players and not just in the first round. It’s easy to use Button as a target and some of his rankings encourage it, but I think calling him a fool is itself foolish,

    That’s fine, but my concern would be what he does now. Presumably when he was a scout/ director he would see 25 games a month, review reports from other scouts, and be a part of draft meetings/ discussions.

    What does he do now as a media guy? If he only sees 30 junior games a year, doesn’t go to Europe, and isn’t part of any type of scouting staff, how does he get his info? He likely hasn’t seen many of the players he provides his strong opinions on. At best he might have seen them once or twice.

    Why should we put any value on his opinion?

  85. Jaxon says:

    Магия 10,

    Can they match? Almost all of their players with contracts big enough to have an impact on shedding salary have no movement or no trade clauses. I don’t know if they are full no movements or not trade or not, I could not find that info. If they sign Hamilton to 7.5M, they are 2.61M over cap. If they shed their only 2 sizeable contracts without clauses (Smith and Krug) that will get them 6.825 back. That means they would have 4.215 to sign 8 players or about $525,000 per player after just basically giving away 2 players. That would mean they are basically carrying about 12 AHL players (added to Talbot, Pasternak, Ferlin, Miller) on their roster and if 8 of them are making the bare minimum they probably aren’t even that good in the AHL. They’re hooped. This offseason may make Boston think now is the time for a tear down and rebuild and will have to decide who of their core to keep. Then Charas, Lucics, hell, even Rasks, and Bergerons might start to shake loose and request trades. They’re in a very precarious position.

  86. verdad2.0 says:

    Again, why does this board not confront one of the obvious fundamental moves that Chiarelli has to consider – the all out pursuit of OEL.
    That likley requires trading of Hall straight up.
    The logic of making the offer from the Oilers perspective is unassailable.
    OEL is the long term complement to MacDavid.
    Unless the OIlers have a genuine #1 defenceman this re-build never ends.

    I’m for doing the offer sheet for Hamilton as well. Remember draft choices usually fail. We know that after ten long years of “prospects”.

    Fix the dedence fundamentally, asap.

    Move on with MacDavid. Who ever plays on his wings will do just fine.
    Who knows Tampa might be dumb enough to give up Drouin for Yakupov?

  87. Dicky94 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Good stuff! Don’t watch many Hab games. I just liked how he got under Lucic skin in last years playoffs. Guess I will keep my Nikkitin jersey after all!!!! (kidding of course).

  88. Acumen says:

    Something that I don’t think is getting enough attention is the way the offer sheet compensation is given out based on what would be a 5 year contract, no matter the actual term. The Oilers could pay less than the 7.3 while still giving the Bruins reason to take the deal based on the return of two firsts.

    If we offer a contract like the one he’s looking for, between 6.5 and 7, over 6 years, the total dollars are divided by 5, not 6, in terms of the annual pay compensation. That’s between 39 and 42 million, or between 7.8 and 8.4 when divided by 5. The compensation for that whole range is two firsts, a second, and a third.

    If we can get a more manageable cap hit and the Bruins still get the four picks, I’m all for it. I love Dougie Hamilton, always have.

    I would much rather trade for him, but I just don’t see the optics working out with the new guys dealing with the old boss so soon after his departure. Though if I’m Don Sweeney, getting back Marincin, Schultz, a first and a prospect looks a lot better for fielding a competitive roster.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909,

    Yakupov is still not even halfway yet to a Ladieslove Smid

  90. Jaxon says:

    Actually, I’d modify my previous offer sheet proposal for Hamilton form $7.5M x 5 yrs to $7.6M x 6 yrs. That would push it right up against the $9.13M limit and keep it to 2 first round, 1 second round and 1 third round. I believe compensation is calculated by the overall value of the contract divided by a maximum of 5 years. 7.6Mx6/5 = 9.12M. If you want to pay him more per year to move into 2nd highest paid D, then you must keep it to a max 5 yr term. At 7.6 he is 3rd highest paid D behind Subban (9.0) and Weber (7.86). So $7.9M for 5 years. I think the value of having a Hedman, Doughty, Keith, Chara, Subban, Weber type player is worth that and if we really want to take advantage of the McDavid years and the Hall/Nuge/Eberle cluster, then it’s almost a must. If you want to try to sign him for 7 years (the max), it would have to be lower than 6.522M per year in order to avoid giving 4 x 1st round picks. I think Bruins find a way to match that for sure, although, even that will be difficult for them.

    I also think they need to gamble on a goalie that is going to shoot the lights out. Talbot, Scrivens and maybe Greiss sound like a great start. And the Oilers cap situation will be fine down the road. To be in trouble all their prospects have to have amazing seasons, and if they do that then it will be a nice problem to have. Plus, nobody (except Ference of all players) has any kind of NTC or NMC so getting value for them down the road shouldn’t be a problem.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: I am offering up my services right now.

    When and where is yer tee time WG?

    Pastiempo tomorrow, Spyglass Hill Friday and Pebble Beach Saturday.

  92. LadiesloveSmid says:

    leadfarmer:
    hunter1909,

    Yakupov is still not even halfway yet to a Ladieslove Smid

    😉

  93. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy: Pastiempo tomorrow, Spyglass Hill Friday and Pebble Beach Saturday.

    I don’t know a thing about golf but those all sound fancy. I bet you drink scotch.

  94. kooler says:

    Woodguy,

    How about we ask for a 3rd round pick!

    Wonder how long he’ll hang in the AHL? Good for him.

  95. monsterbater4 says:

    kooler:
    Woodguy,

    How about we ask for a 3rd round pick!

    Wonder how long he’ll hang in the AHL?Good for him.

    I don’t remember who tweeted it out (maybe Matty) but since he was never officially the “coach” and had the interim tag all year, the oilers aren’t eligible for compensation

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    The only way it’s a lateral move for Nelson is if you overlook his holding the title of interim HC.

    The man wants to be a head coach in the NHL. This org tried him on the job and decided to go in a different direction after the audition. You can’t get a clearer signal than that that achieving your aspirations is best pursued elsewhere.

    Going to Detroit’s affiliate is the best possible HC spot for him absent any HC offers in the NHL. The Wings draft well, stock the cupboard and marinate them. Nelly should be able to win a Calder Cup or three and he’s also nicely positioned should Babcock’s replacement fail to meet expectations (which often happens after legends depart).

    I’m rooting for him. Seems like a straight shooter and a stand up guy. Not his fault Lowe and MacT were too slow to recognize the talent in their midst.

  97. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    theres oil in virginia,

    I don’t know for sure (that’s why I put assumed), but the verbal out of TMc and ChiaPete was that they had sat down and discussed a role, and that it was now in TNel’s court to make a decision.A fair bit of reading between the lines on that, to be sure.

    Gotcha. I heard the report of a meeting, but never did hear a follow up to where things were left.

  98. Acumen says:

    monsterbater4: I don’t remember who tweeted it out (maybe Matty) but since he was never officially the “coach” and had the interim tag all year, the oilers aren’t eligible for compensation

    So a coach still filling a position in the organization with an assumed standing offer to be part of the new big league coaching staff breaks contract–with the team’s blessing–and goes to coach another AHL team, and there is no compensation, but a fired coach and fired GM find new positions as free agents and we have to give up gold picks.

    The NHL is just so stupid sometimes.

  99. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    Whats the difference between IPP and 5×5 pts /60?

  100. Yak2 says:

    Craig Button a helluva scout? LMFAO the guy had Matt Dumba 1st overall in 2012. The guy knows nothing.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Showerhead: I don’t know a thing about golf but those all sound fancy. I bet you drink scotch.

    I prefer Irish Whiskey.

    You can take me out of the trailer park, but you can’t take the trailer park out of me.

    NOTE: I actually lived in a trailer park when I was young.

  102. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Pastiempo tomorrow, Spyglass Hill Friday and Pebble Beach Saturday.

    WHAT? I HATE YOU!

  103. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Yak2:
    Craig Button a helluva scout? LMFAO the guy had Matt Dumba 1st overall in 2012. The guy knows nothing.

    He may not have been all that far off…as Woodguy has shown, Dumba is one hell of a player.

  104. Pouzar says:

    Showerhead: I don’t know a thing about golf but those all sound fancy. I bet you drink scotch.

    Pretty much the pinnacle of golf. 🙂

  105. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    Whats the difference between IPP and 5×5 pts /60?

    In what way?

    IPP takes into account every goal the team scored in which the player played.

    5v5 Pts/60 is the points per 60 of 5v5 play.

    Two very different stats.

    I like IPP because it levels the playing field.

    Dmen on high scoring teams don’t get the “auto bump” from being on a team that scores a lot.

  106. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: That’s fine, but my concern would be what he does now.Presumably when he was a scout/ director he would see 25 games a month, review reports from other scouts, and be a part of draft meetings/ discussions.

    What does he do now as a media guy?If he only sees 30 junior games a year, doesn’t go to Europe, and isn’t part of any type of scouting staff, how does he get his info?He likely hasn’t seen many of the players he provides his strong opinions on.At best he might have seen them once or twice.

    Why should we put any value on his opinion?

    You are free to form an opinion on Craig Button or anyone. My point is that the original comments above seemed to pass beyond criticism and become personal. My post was an effort to point out that the original comments were in fact not true, that Button’s record in Dallas had some nice bullet points.

  107. Numenius says:

    Sail on, Hockey Whisperer. You deserve an enormous amount of recognition for your work with this organization. Thanks for saving Yak’s, Lander’s and possibly others’ careers for us.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: He may not have been all that far off…as Woodguy has shown, Dumba is one hell of a player.

    Yeah, we’re 2-3 years from making the call on that draft.

    Trouba has the clubhouse lead imo.

  109. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: I prefer Gasoline.

    Fixed that for you.

  110. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, we’re 2-3 years from making the call on that draft.

    Trouba has the clubhouse lead imo.

    Yeah, Trouba, Dumba, Lindholm, Rielly and even Pouliot are all in that conversation.

    Will be great to watch.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: Pretty much the pinnacle of golf.

    #1, #2 and #3 rated public courses in California.

    Pebble Beach is #1 public course in the entire US. Spyglass is #11 in US, Pastiempo is #75 in US.

  112. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    IPP?
    Brandon REG Season:
    340 G 78 PPG 6 SHG 256 EVG
    Pilon 32 EVp
    32EVp/256 EVG .125
    (72gm /68 Pilon gm) X .125 = .132EV IPP

    Of the guys i would target.
    and hope to get these d
    for picks 33, 58, 79, 86, 117, 124
    age based NHLE listed

    Meloche Baie Com Pick #33
    6′ 2.5″ 204lb 2.74lb/in
    .197 EV IPP
    44 PT NHLE
    23 EVp NHLE
    8 EVG NHLE

    Lauzon Rouyn-Noranda Pick #58
    6′ 1.75′ 193lb 2.62 lb/in
    .173 EV IPP
    35 pt NHLE
    26 EVP NHLE
    13 EVG NHLE

    Guhle PA #58
    6’1.75″ 184lb 2.50 Lb/in
    .163 IPP
    30 NHL pT NHLE
    25 EVP NHLE
    2 EVG NHLE

    Hobbs Regina Pick #79
    6′ 0.5″ 187LB 2.58 lb/in
    15EVp/197EVG = .076
    (72/33)
    .166 EV IPP
    34 PT NHLE
    32 EVP NHLE
    2 EVG NHLE

    Levielle Cape Breton Pick #86 Could nhope for #117
    5’11.5′ 223lb 3.12lb/in
    .199 EV IPP
    33 PT NHLE
    22 EVP NHLE
    6 EVg NHLE

  113. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Fixed that for you.

    Embrace your inner Heathen.

  114. vangolf says:

    Woodguy,

    you are my hero! One of my life regrets was being offered to play Cypress Point this year and San Francisco Golf Club and me not being able to make it work (notwithstanding that I had already established an Augusta, Pine Valley, Cypress Point, National Golf Links mulligan with my wife). I still have the connection, but not sure if the offer will be forthcoming anytime soon.

  115. Tapdog says:

    Lowetide,

    Why does it have to be an offer sheet. Perhaps we can get Boston to entertain the idea of trade.

    Let’s say Arizona takes Strome, Toronto wants a big center and we have Draisaitl so would the base of a trade be Leon going and the 4th overall coming back. I am not worried about the add ins.

    That 4th over all to Boston for Hamilton, again not too worried about the add ins but I am sure agreements could be made.

    Everyone seems to have what they want so is there something here that could be workable?

  116. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide:
    I understand that people have opinions and that Craig Button can be a target, but let’s review some of the things he did as a scout/director with the Stars:

    1992: Jere Lehtinen, fourth round
    1993: Jamie Langenbrunner, second round
    1994: Marty Turco, fifth round
    1995: Jarome Iginla, first round
    1997: Brenden Morrow, first round

    He found some very good players and not just in the first round. It’s easy to use Button as a target and some of his rankings encourage it, but I think calling him a fool is itself foolish,

    That list is certainly better than the Magnificent Bastard’s work ……. unless we give Stu all kinds of credit for picking Hall and Nuge

  117. Lowetide says:

    Tapdog:
    Lowetide,

    Why does it have to be an offer sheet. Perhaps we can get Boston to entertain the idea of trade.

    Let’s say Arizona takes Strome, Toronto wants a big center and we have Draisaitl so would the base of a trade be Leon going and the 4th overall coming back. I am not worried about the add ins.

    That 4th over all to Boston for Hamilton, again not too worried about the add ins but I am sure agreements could be made.

    Everyone seems to have what they want so is there something here that could be workable?

    OS is the threat but we also have to acknowledge (I think) that Boston may not want to deal with Chiarelli.

  118. vishcosity says:

    Woodguy,

    Just north of Pebble Beach is a deep fried artichoke place. Looks like a gas station, all white, right side. Also, if you’re bringing the lady, maybe consider to set her loose in Monterey.

  119. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: #1, #2 and #3 rated public courses in California.

    Pebble Beach is #1 public course in the entire US. Spyglass is #11 in US, Pastiempo is #75 in US.

    Golf is my #1 passion. Pebble is #1 on my bucket list.

    Have fun my friend. What a lineup!

  120. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: In what way?

    IPP takes into account every goal the team scored in which the player played.

    5v5 Pts/60 is the points per 60 of 5v5 play.

    Two very different stats.

    I like IPP because it levels the playing field.

    Dmen on high scoring teams don’t get the “auto bump” from being on a team that scores a lot.

    Yeah, I guess I don’t understand what IPP is.

    You said above that “Its the number of goals that a player got a point on when his team was playing”.

    Isn’t that just called a “point”?

    How do you calculate it?

  121. Connorrhea says:

    Ducey: “Its the number of goals that a player got a point on when his team was playing”.

    It’s the percentage of the team’s goals that a player got a point on. So 0.200 means he was involved in 1/5 of his team’s goals, in some way.

  122. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ducey,

    From above:

    To recap, IPP is “Individual Points Percentage”

    Its the number of goals that a player got a point on when his team was playing.

    So the Oilers scored 198 goals this season. Purcell, for ease of calculation, played in all 82 games and had 34pts. He has an IPP of .171. Eberle, conversely, had 63 pts (and yes, I’m ignoring that he only played in 81 games) would have an IPP of .318.

  123. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: You are free to form an opinion on Craig Button or anyone. My point is that the original comments above seemed to pass beyond criticism and become personal. My post was an effort to point out that the original comments were in fact not true, that Button’s record in Dallas had some nice bullet points.

    I wasn’t being critical of Button or you. Just wondering where he gets his credibility from.

    Perhaps if you interview him, you might ask him what he does to come up with his opinions.

    He might just be a media mouthpiece resting on past laurels (such as they are) or maybe he busts his butt talking to a ton of scouts, looking at video etc.

  124. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Yes, I had Pilon at .133 5v5 IPP.

    I only know Meloche from your list.

    Like him a lot, a lot, a lot.

  125. kinger_OIL says:

    Nellie going to Detroit organization is good news in many ways: shows me that Nelly wasn’t willing to play 2nd fiddle after being the coach. He is hireable outside Old Boy Oil Network: (which is rare last 10 years). Shows me the new OIL regime is different than the old regime, in terms of not bending over backwards to collect fired staff and keep them on payroll somewhere else. Nellie isn’t a loser, and it appears this new regime doesn’t employ the loser OB practices of the previous regime: Rejoice. Hope he becomes a h@ll of a head coach in the NHL: he got no respect or belief over two regimes here.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Rob Vollman ‏@robvollmanNHL3h3 hours ago

    Random variation is responsible for 75% of draft success, per @coreypronman on ESPN Insider http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13091579/the-nhl-draft-75-percent-luck-25-percent-skill-2015-nhl-draft

    “The NHL draft is 75 percent luck, 25 percent skill”

    ‘And when you take Liam Coughlin, luck gets in a cab and heads to the airport”

  127. sliderule says:

    The oiler goalies come to Edmonton to die.

    I believe it’s as much team defence at fault.

    The oilers give up a ton of uncontested shots from slot.

    McClellan has to convince the team to mark a man and get a stick on him.

    Guard the slot should be oiler motto.

  128. Kmart99 says:

    OS to D Ham definitely opens the door to CAP Hell, but IMO it is most definitely worth it.
    He’s the right age, already a top pairing D man and on the brink of being a legit #1 for many years. If there are casualties as a result of the D Ham OS, I’d argue that those casualties are worth it. Hamilton and Talbot could end up being the pieces that take the Oil to the promised land. Ultimately, do any Chicago fans regret entering CAP Hell? I’d say it was worth it for them.

  129. knighttown says:

    Darcy, Jen and I went down that way before kiddies a decade ago and played Pasatiempo and Pebble. They’re just unreal. Pasatiempo is a just a beautiful old tree lined course with those traditional upside down bowl greens that drive you nuts as you’re always coming in from 3 inches of rough. Lovely place.

    Pebble is nothing short of life changing. I was so amped up on #1 I pulled one 70 yards out of bounds left before taking a deep breath (and a mulligan) and noticing that it’s only 350ish. Took out a 5-wood, got it in play and went from there.

    The stretch from 6-10 is simply perfection and I look forward to hearing what your highlight is. For me, number 8 stands out. I hit it down the gut to the edge of the cliff and hit a 4-iron over a 100 foot drop to the tiny green and made my par. I have the print hanging on my wall still.

    and don’t forget to watch and hear the bagpipes say farewell to the Sun at the Spyglass clubhouse at sunset. For a McLeod that’s a must do.

    I’m heading up to Cabot links tomorrow for 3 rounds with 9 buddies in preparation for our Ireland golf trip in September. If you ever make it out east look me up and we’ll do Cabot Links and Cliffs. Cliffs looks to be top 10 in the world.

    And Vangolf, you DONT pass up an invite to Cypress for any reason. Full stop.

  130. Kmart99 says:

    sliderule:
    The oiler goalies come to Edmonton to die.

    I believe it’s as much team defence at fault.

    The oilers give up a ton of uncontested shots from slot.

    McClellan has to convince the team to marka man and get a stick on him.

    Guard the slot should be oiler motto.

    FRJohnk already pointed out that, while the Oilers D is awful and gives up way too many chances, they don’t give up the most chances against and they are comparable to Chicago and MTL in this regard. D sucks…. Goalies reaaaaally suck.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Connorrhea: It’s the percentage of the team’s goals that a player got a point on. So 0.200 means he was involved in 1/5 of his team’s goals, in some way.

    This.

    Players on teams that score a lot of goals can have high pts/gm or pts/60.

    What IPP does is tell you how often a player is figuring in his team’s scoring.

    .20 = 20% which is a nice arbitrary cut off point.

    Player A gets 80 points and gets a point in 15% of his team’s goals.
    Player B gets 60 points and gets a point in 20% of his team’s goals.

    Who is the better player?

    The player with more points or the player who figures in a larger part of their team’s scoring?

    I like players who are a biggest part of their team’s offense and I think the history bears this out.

  132. vishcosity says:

    The draft is 75% luck, or scouts are just bloody awful at their jobs.

    When testing includes jump rope reps and interviews with ex hockey players, its little wonder the correlation coefficients perform worse than background.

  133. russ99 says:

    sliderule:
    The oiler goalies come to Edmonton to die.

    I believe it’s as much team defence at fault.

    The oilers give up a ton of uncontested shots from slot.

    McClellan has to convince the team to marka man and get a stick on him.

    Guard the slot should be oiler motto.

    This is why I’m convinced that 3 scoring lines have to go away.

    If we had 6 forwards that we knew would be defensively responsible that could help the goalie and defense, plus put pressure on forwards that don’t cover in our zone to work within the system.’

  134. sliderule says:

    Ducey,

    If you click on a player on Mckenzie final list Button give an assessment of every player.

    It’s the most comprehensive one I have read of the free information and to a large part agrees with the other draft stuff I have seen.

  135. sliderule says:

    Kmart99,

    I am talking about uncontested shots.If you leave a player alone they will hit the holes.

    It’s similar to basketball in if you don’t contest a shot they will knock it down.

    Kings and other good defensive teams contest the shot.

    The broadcast media were all over Getzlaf when he didn’t mark his man while standing near watching the puck.

    The oilers do this all the time.

  136. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    Darcy, Jen and I went down that way before kiddies a decade ago and played Pasatiempo and Pebble. They’re just unreal. Pasatiempo is a just a beautiful old tree lined course with those traditional upside down bowl greens that drive you nuts as you’re always coming in from 3 inches of rough. Lovely place.

    Pebble is nothing short of life changing. I was so amped up on #1 I pulled one 70 yards out of bounds left before taking a deep breath (and a mulligan) and noticing that it’s only 350ish. Took out a 5-wood, got it in play and went from there.

    The stretch from 6-10 is simply perfection and I look forward to hearing what your highlight is. For me, number 8 stands out. I hit it down the gut to the edge of the cliff and hit a 4-iron over a 100 foot drop to the tiny green and made my par. I have the print hanging on my wall still.

    and don’t forget to watch and hear the bagpipes say farewell to the Sun at the Spyglass clubhouse at sunset. For a McLeod that’s a must do.

    I’m heading up to Cabot links tomorrow for 3 rounds with 9 buddies in preparation for our Ireland golf trip in September. If you ever make it out east look me up and we’ll do Cabot Links and Cliffs. Cliffs looks to be top 10 in the world.

    And Vangolf, you DONT pass up an invite to Cypress for any reason. Full stop.

    Well now I’m psyched out already!

    Thanks KT!

    Will do a report.

  137. Jordan says:

    Woodguy,

    Hey WG,

    Went looking for information on IPP, and took me right to the post you made last year of the 2014 draft eligibles and their IPP.

    Will you be doing up another one for 2015?

    I would be quite excited to see how all the great players in this deep draft fare by this metric,

  138. Woodguy says:

    Kmart99: FRJohnk already pointed out that, while the Oilers D is awful and gives up way too many chances, they don’t give up the most chances against and they are comparable to Chicago and MTL in this regard.D sucks…. Goalies reaaaaally suck.

    Agreed.

    As per wawronice.com:

    High Danger Scoring Chances Allowed per 60 last year:

    NSH 8.8
    DET 9
    FLA 9
    L.A 9.1
    MIN 9.1
    STL 9.4
    BOS 9.7
    ANA 9.7
    WPG 9.8
    N.J 9.8
    WSH 10
    PIT 10.3
    OTT 10.3
    NYR 10.6
    T.B 10.7
    MTL 10.7
    CBJ 10.7
    CAR 10.9
    S.J 11.1
    CHI 11.2
    DAL 11.2
    NYI 11.3
    VAN 11.3
    PHI 11.3
    CGY 11.6
    ARI 11.9
    EDM 12.6
    COL 12.6
    BUF 13.3
    TOR 13.7

    All Scoring Chances Allowed per 60 last year:

    DET 21.9
    FLA 22
    NSH 23
    ANA 23.4
    L.A 23.6
    MIN 23.9
    N.J 24.3
    PIT 24.5
    STL 24.5
    WSH 24.5
    NYR 24.5
    WPG 24.7
    T.B 25.3
    BOS 25.3
    OTT 25.3
    PHI 25.7
    CHI 25.8
    CAR 25.9
    CBJ 26.2
    S.J 26.6
    MTL 26.7
    VAN 27.3
    DAL 27.4
    NYI 27.8
    ARI 28.4
    EDM 29.1
    CGY 29.5
    COL 29.8
    TOR 32.3
    BUF 32.7

    Takes the wind out of the sales about “Talbot being a product of NYR Dcorp”

    NYR Dcorp is decent, but not elite. Not close to elite.

    FLA’s Dcorps looks under rated. Very nice.

    If CAL doesn’t get great goaltending again…….

    Neuivirth ranked 19/48 in terms of Adjusted SV% in front of that tire fire. Good year for him. If his previous years weren’t so weak I’d like him more.

  139. Woodguy says:

    Jordan:
    Woodguy,

    Hey WG,

    Went looking for information on IPP, and took me right to the post you made last year of the 2014 draft eligibles and their IPP.

    Will you be doing up another one for 2015?

    I would be quite excited to see how all the great players in this deep draft fare by this metric,

    I’ve kinda done that here no?

  140. vangolf says:

    knighttown,

    I know I know. My wife was like “why are you sobbing?” after I sent the decline email. That said, I have newfound confidence that it is actually possible, whereas I truly believed that it would never happen. Sounds like we have a bunch of golfers here (only thing I like more than the Oilers!!). If anyone is ever in Vancouver and wants to play Shaughnessy, drop me a line. Happy to host, but I would leave the green fee to you to pick up.

  141. Bruce McCurdy says:

    re: Nelson’s Heroes. That’s a great list, LT, thank you for taking the time & trouble to collate all that.

    I’ve become a huge Todd Nelson fan over the past five years, had occasion to interact with him a few times while he was coaching the Barons (in Calgary) and the Oilers Young Stars (in Clare Drake), and he is the genuine article. He remembered me from one year to the next, and he was terrific with my CoH colleague Young Willis when Jon moved to OKC for a season. Knows his stuff and is generous about sharing it. Knows his players too, and has their backs.

    I was hoping he’d hang around as an associate to allow some continuity in the coaching staff, but the revolving door continues apace. Let’s hope that whoever McLellan brings in doesn’t have to be fired in a year’s time. Seems like Oilers have dumped about 10 or 12 coaches of various stripes in the past 4 years, and that doesn’t even account for the considerable controversy when they *didn’t* dump Smith & Bucky.

    Anyway, in Todd Nelson’s case, it was his choice, and he absolutely deserved the right to make that choice. He’s landed on his feet in his old organization, the one that just promoted Jeff Blashill to the NHL. It may take another couple of years, but such an opportunity surely awaits Nelson. I wish him the best of success wherever he goes.

  142. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Brodie’s IPP was .131

    Not a crystal ball eh?

    Not the IPP, I was referring to Wotherspoon’s size and talent assessment relative to what Brodie’s is in the NHL – not a big man, but a smooth skater who can move the puck up ice efficiently, plays a solid, if understated, defensive game, calm feet.

    I’d use IPP as a very good piece of the puzzle, but it can’t really be the sole determiner on a defensive prospect.

  143. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    But think how primed Nelson will be for a head coach position when the Oilers fire McLellan in May 2017!

    —–

    I really hope I’m only kidding.

  144. Woodguy says:

    Kmart99: FRJohnk already pointed out that, while the Oilers D is awful and gives up way too many chances, they don’t give up the most chances against and they are comparable to Chicago and MTL in this regard.D sucks…. Goalies reaaaaally suck.

    Scivens last year ranked LAST – 48/48 for Low Danger Save %

    These are all the shots ourside the “homeplate” area.

    It doesn’t account for screens, but tips get counted as a shot from the tip spot.

    Ben was .954

    Best was Gibson at .993

    Median (23rd and 24th) were .9725 and .973

    That’s a lot of goals that shouldn’t have gone in.

    Those are those deflating goals were the rest of the team thinks “REALLY????”

    Scrivens:

    High Danger .8101 ranked 40/48
    Median .8374

    Medium Danger .911 ranked 40/48
    Median .9274

    Just not a good year.

    Goalies on teams that allowed more shots and scoring chances did better.

    The one thing none of this data captures is odd man rushes.

    I *know* that the Oilers gave up a ton of odd man rushes and that the opposition was scoring a a clip north of 20%. Those shot are usually high danger shots though.

    I think that’s a bit of a golden ticket when it comes to explaining SV% and persistent high SH%, but we don’t have that info available…..yet.

  145. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Not the IPP, I was referring to Wotherspoon’s size and talent assessment relative to what Brodie’s is in the NHL – not a big man, but a smooth skater who can move the puck up ice efficiently, plays a solid, if understated, defensive game, calm feet.

    I’d use IPP as a very good piece of the puzzle, but it can’t really be the sole determiner on a defensive prospect.

    Yeah, I got what you were pitching, I was just taking the opportunity to show IPP’s flaws as well.

  146. Lowetide says:

    IF we lose the first game of the season in a blowout fashion, with the goalie sucking and the defense a-laying, I may need some quiet time.

  147. G Money says:

    Woodguy: The one thing none of this data captures is odd man rushes.

    That’s not quite true, WG.

    If you read the war-on-ice blog post (it’s hard to find) on how they define their scoring chances, they actually try to account for rebounds and rush shots.

    The rebounds use the now-standard Parkatti definition of less than 4 seconds apart.

    The rush shots use a slightly more complex criteria, having to do with time deltas of events from the neutral and defensive zones prior to a shot. Its assumed that if there is a short delta between say a faceoff in the D zone and a shot at the other end of the ice, that shot was likely a shot off a breakaway or other rush. They did calculate the sh% on those types of shots and as you’d expect, it was considerably higher than non-rush shots from the same spot, so I think there’s something to it.

    It won’t capture all rush shots of course, and will likely have some false positives, but I suspect for a large sample statistic its an excellent heuristic.

  148. Woodguy says:

    Here’s Rom posting about IPP last year:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/ipp-and-the-2014-draft-class/

    Here’s the McKeen tool he was referring to for this year:

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?pos=3&mingames=10&drafted=Eligible

    Be interested to see if there is much difference between CHLstats and McKeens.

    Lots of good info in that McKeens link, I recommend it.

  149. Revolved says:

    Thinking about IPP, it feel like it irons out a lot of the variables that individual players do not have an impact on, such as being on a high scoring team or in a high scoring league (Although europe not handing out second assists will definitely have an impact on D). It does not control for time on ice, quality of line mates or quality of competition, but maybe IPP/60? It should be able to identify elite players in all leagues and at all positions, shouldn’t it?

  150. Woodguy says:

    G Money: That’s not quite true, WG.

    If you read the war-on-ice blog post (it’s hard to find) on how they define their scoring chances, they actually try to account for rebounds and rush shots.

    The rebounds use the now-standard Parkatti definition of less than 4 seconds apart.

    The rush shots use a slightly more complex criteria, having to do with time deltas of events from the neutral and defensive zones prior to a shot.Its assumed that if there is a short delta between say a faceoff in the D zone and a shot at the other end of the ice, that shot was likely a shot off a breakaway or other rush.They did calculate the sh% on those types of shots and as you’d expect, it was considerably higher than non-rush shots from the same spot, so I think there’s something to it.

    It won’t capture all rush shots of course, and will likely have some false positives, but I suspect for a large sample statistic its an excellent heuristic.

    Yeah, I looked at rush shots and it includes way too much data.

    I want to break out odd man rushes only.

    The SH% on them is massive compared to all other shots and they need to be on their own and not lumped with other non-odd man rush shots.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Revolved:
    Thinking about IPP, it feel like it irons out a lot of the variables that individual players do not have an impact on, such as being on a high scoring team or in a high scoring league (Although europe not handing out second assists will definitely have an impact on D).It does not control for time on ice,quality of line mates or quality of competition, but maybe IPP/60? Has this statistic been applied widely to forwards as well as D?Is there any reason it shouldn’t be just as applicable?

    You can use it for forwards too.

    Read Rom’s stuff in the post I did above yours, it has a ton of info in it.

    I like to do it for Dmen as they are tougher to scout, than forwards so it adds information.

  152. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: The one thing none of this data captures is odd man rushes.
    I *know* that the Oilers gave up a ton of odd man rushes and that the opposition was scoring a a clip north of 20%. Those shot are usually high danger shots though.
    I think that’s a bit of a golden ticket when it comes to explaining SV% and persistent high SH%, but we don’t have that info available…..yet.

    League average shooting percentage from the slot is around 17% ( don’t have the exact number right now)

    So odd man rushes are captured (mostly) in the data.

  153. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    IF we lose the first game of the season in a blowout fashion, with the goalie sucking and the defense a-laying, I may need some quiet time.

    That better not happen for the 3rd time in a row.

    Man.

  154. Revolved says:

    Woodguy,

    You beat me to my edit… but what about doing some kind of IPP adjustment for ES TOI?

  155. rickithebear says:

    How to continue to win cupS
    Talons team 2010
    retained:
    Sharp +10
    Hjarlmasson +9
    Seabrook =8
    Hossa +7
    Bolland +6
    Bickell +3
    Keith +2
    Toews -1
    Kane -2

    Replaced
    Campbell +11
    Sopel +7
    Ladd +4
    Kopecky +2
    Eager +2
    Boyton+2
    Fraser E
    Brouwer -1
    Burish -1
    Madden -2
    Byfuglien -4
    Hendry -4
    Niemi

    2013
    Talon Retained
    Sharp; Hjarlmasson Seabrook, Hossa; Bickell, Keith, Toews Kane; Krueger; Crawford
    +55 as group

    Talon adds but not retained
    Bolland -2
    Smith -1

    Bowman adds retained
    Oduya +12
    Rozival +9
    Shaw +2
    Saad -1

    Bowman adds not retained
    Handzus +7
    Carcillo -1
    Frolik -1
    Stahlbeg -1
    Bollig -1

    2015
    Talons adds to be retained
    Hjarlmasson; Seabrook; Hossa; Bickell; Keith; Toews; Kane;Versteeg; Crawford
    +53 as a group
    Talons not to be retined
    Sharp +2
    Krueger -5

    Bowmans retained
    Saad +5
    Richards +4
    Teravainen +2
    Rundblad +2
    TVR -1

    Bowman’s not retained
    Vermette+5
    Timonen +1
    Rozival -2
    Cumiskey -3
    Nordstrom -3 ????
    Shaw -3
    SODuya -4
    Desjardins -4

    They have Talon’s core of +50 even machine and add lower priced players to Repace the leaving veterans.
    The also replace the negative machines with there drafted youth.

    Everytime players need taet bump the are retained if they made the top 6 or top 4 step.

    Hall-Mcdavid-XXX
    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
    XXX-Draisatl-XXX
    Slepyshev-Yakimov-XXX

    Marincin-XXX
    Klefbom-Nurse

    That is a start of a good base to cycle our future 1st to 3rd round players into over the next 3 – 6 years.

    Suspect
    Yak; pouliot, abd Ebs are gone by trade deadline 2018

  156. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide: frjohnk:
    LT,

    Hanifin or Provorv would be great.

    Which asset(s) are you giving up?

    I’ll say Leon

    Lowetide hates Leon.

  157. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:

    One conclusion from that work?Stay the hell away from Lehner.STAY AWAY!

    In my process of disembowelling, er, disentangling the performances of Oilers goalies this past season for my Ben Scrivens season review , I referenced that handy low-medium-high danger shot breakdown at war-on-ice that is frequently referenced in this comments section. Of the 48 goalies who played 1200 minutes (all situations), here’s how the bottom of the list looked for Sv% vs low danger shots:

    42 guys at .960 or better, topping out at .985

    43. James Reimer, TOR .958
    44. Jaro Halak, NYI .953
    45. Jake Allen, STL .950

    46. Viktor Fasth, EDM .946
    47. Robin Lehner, OTT .944
    48. Ben Scrivens, EDM .942

    I think I’ve seen enough shitty goals on low percentage shots already, thanks. (See: #s 46, 48)

    Tiny sample size as I don’t see the Sens that often, but I saw Lehner REAL bad in an HNiC game vs. the Habs about a year ago, Ottawa led 4-1 (I think it was) with under 3½ minutes left, they got one goal and he just came apart at the seams. Couldn’t stop the bleeding, and ultimately bled out, right there on national TV. Sens wound up losing 5-4 in overtime, with some butt ugly goals in the mix. Judge for yourself, it was this game, scroll ahead to just past 3:00. Lehner just lost his shit altogether, not to mention track of the puck, and gave in 4 goals in <5 minutes with the game increasingly on the line. Left a real bad impression on this goalie-watcher, even as I must stress it was only one game, and a small fraction of one at that. But yowsa.

    Due respect to Bryan Murray but if he wants a top 6 F AND a pick he's dreaming in technicolour. He's got four goalies in the mix, nowhere to put them all, and sharks with other options circling in the waters.

  158. Truth says:

    Woodguy,

    Does your Woody stat account for the player’s percentage of points out of the defensemen on the team only, or does it take into account the entire roster including forwards? Poor Travis Dermott would be penalized heavily having to compete with the Woddies of McDavid and Strome on the same team.

    In general it seems like an effective stat as long as there are some asterisks in situations such as the above or a team with two top level defensemen. For example, Nurse’s woody would probably be deflated after the greyhounds acquired DeAngelo.

  159. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: League average shooting percentage from the slot is around 17% ( don’t have the exact number right now)

    So odd man rushes are captured (mostly) in the data.

    The data I got from one guy I know on a team (not the Oilers) had odd man rush shots over 25%.

    That needs its own category.

    At the very least to normalize what a non odd man rush shot from the slot’s SH% actually is.

    Also the frequency of odd man rushes varies significantly from team to team (both for and aginst) and could go a long, long way to explaining SH% and SV%.

    Looking at Hartley and Carlyle and their persistent SH% and reliance on fast break offence.

    I think there’s something there.

    Not saying its the right way to play, just that its different and needs to be accounted for.

    As soon as Carlyle was fired and TOR tried to play a possession game they stunk.

    The didn’t really have to horses to play the possession game and I bet Carlyle knew that, so he didn’t try.

    Maybe.

  160. Woodguy says:

    Revolved:
    Woodguy,

    You beat me to my edit… but what about doing some kind of IPP adjustment for ES TOI?

    Good idea. Let me see what I can do.

  161. wheatnoil says:

    Revolved:
    Woodguy,

    You beat me to my edit… but what about doing some kind of IPP adjustment for ES TOI?

    The problem with adjusting for TOI is that, at the CHL level, we mostly only have ‘estimated’ time on ice, which are not always accurate. You’d have to take that data with a grain of salt.

  162. John Chambers says:

    Off topic

    Chabot and Zboril both play for St John, have similar stats and are similar sizes and birthdays. Both are expected to be drafted in the latter portion of round 1.

    Anyone familiar with the team or the Q enough to have a definitive judgment on these two? They seemed to anchor the defense of a young team – both appear at least to be toolsy all- around Dmen, but Zboril seems to be rated a hair higher for some reason.

  163. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy,

    Kind of like how the Kruger season was a tire fire possession-wise but the Oilers got their best goaltending since Roloson and finished higher in the standings.

    Maybe if you’re not all that talented the strategy is a rope-a-dope defense with strikes off the rush.

  164. mikkoandmal says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy, great work on the CHL dmen.

    Enjoy your trip, your rota brought a smile to my face. My two brothers and I have went to Carmel and Pebble every spring for the past ten years. it is one of the four or five places special places in the world that every golfer should try and get to.

    I actually think a close friend of mine may be going on your trip with you!

    In Carmel I recommend Katy’s Place for breakfast and the patio at the Hog’s Breath Inn for after golf drinks. It is not as hopping as back in the day when Clint owned it, but still a good spot to breakdown the post-round glory.

  165. commonfan14 says:

    hunter1909: Hi what’s an email address I can contact you on? You’re a Winner in the 2014-15 Oiler’s Death March contest. Prizes are going out to the top 2014-15 prognosticators. Congratulations.

    I’ll just leave this here in case this is in reference to the pre-season contest: commonfan14@gmail.com

  166. Rondo says:

    John Chambers:
    Off topic

    Chabot and Zboril both play for St John, have similar stats and are similar sizes and birthdays. Both are expected to be drafted in the latter portion of round 1.

    Anyone familiar with the team or the Q enough to have a definitive judgment on these two? They seemed to anchor the defense of a young team – both appear at least to be toolsy all- around Dmen, but Zboril seems to be rated a hair higher for some reason.

    Grant McCagg head scout Mckeens answers question.

    Just listened to the audio it was interesting getting some thoughts on guys around the 15 spot, just a question, why would you take Zboril over Chabot?

    Thanks. Zboril could turn out to be the better all-around defenceman…more offensive and defensive upside. Harder shot..better at finding the shooting and passing lanes, better defender, more aggressive defensively and tighter gaps. Chabot is of course a great skater..but more projecting to do with him.

    Zboril was thought of as a possible top ten guy in the summer..injuries and inconsistency didn’t help him..Saint John didn’t do a great job of developing their players..new coach coming in.

  167. Woodguy says:

    Truth:
    Woodguy,

    Does your Woody stat account for the player’s percentage of points out of the defensemen on the team only, or does it take into account the entire roster including forwards?Poor Travis Dermott would be penalized heavily having to compete with the Woddies of McDavid and Strome on the same team.

    In general it seems like an effective stat as long as there are some asterisks in situations such as the above or a team with two top level defensemen.For example, Nurse’s woody would probably be deflated after the greyhounds acquired DeAngelo.

    All players.

    It does do that, but some see it as a good thing.

    Would Dermott score as much if he wasn’t with McDavid?

    His pts/gm is very good, but because of McDavid Erie scored over 4 goals a game and a rising tide raises all boats.

    It takes the air out of the big numbers and inflates others on shitty teams.

    I think it levels the playing field nicely, but it might penalize guys too much (or inflate too much)

  168. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: The problem with adjusting for TOI is that, at the CHL level, we mostly only have ‘estimated’ time on ice, which are not always accurate. You’d have to take that data with a grain of salt.

    Yeah, probably best to leave it alone and concentrate on solid numbers.

  169. Rondo says:

    Woodguy: All players.

    It does do that, but some see it as a good thing.

    Would Dermott score as much if he wasn’t with McDavid?

    His pts/gm is very good, but because of McDavid Erie scored over 4 goals a game and a rising tide raises all boats.

    It takes the air out of the big numbers and inflates others on shitty teams.

    I think it levels the playing field nicely, but it might penalize guys too much (or inflate too much)

    Brock Otten of OHL prospects answers that question regarding Travis

    “Do I think Dermott’s numbers are inflated. Yeah, probably a little bit. Playing for a strong offensive team, particularly one that is good at creating off the rush, will help the numbers of any defender.

    But you also have to ask yourself this question? Were the Otters as good as they were this year offensively because of how well Dermott starts the breakout and because of the good decisions he makes with the puck in his own end?

    Quite often when he’s listed as that secondary assist, it’s because he’s made a solid play in his own end to get things started.

    Dermott is a solid two-way guy who should have a lengthy NHL career.”

  170. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Woodguy,

    Kind of like how the Kruger season was a tire fire possession-wise but the Oilers got their best goaltending since Roloson and finished higher in the standings.

    Maybe if you’re not all that talented the strategy is a rope-a-dope defense with strikes off the rush.

    I don’t doubt that.

    That used to be the way the 80’s Oilers and other teams played all day.

    You need the scoring talent to pull it off.

  171. Woodguy says:

    mikkoandmal:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy, great work on the CHL dmen.

    Enjoy your trip, your rota brought a smile to my face. My two brothers and I have went to Carmel and Pebble every spring for the past ten years. it is one of the four or five places special places in the world that every golfer should try and get to.

    I actually think a close friend of mine may be going on your trip with you!

    In Carmel I recommend Katy’s Place for breakfast and the patio at the Hog’s Breath Inn for after golf drinks. It is not as hopping as back in the day when Clint owned it, but still a good spot to breakdown the post-round glory.

    Thanks and Thanks!

  172. Woodguy says:

    Rondo: says:
    June 17, 2015 at 2:36 pm

    hunter1909: Hi what’s an email address I can contact you on? You’re a Winner in the 2014-15 Oiler’s Death March contest. Prizes are going out to the top 2014-15 prognosticators. Congratulations.

    I’ll just leave this here in case this is in

    Secondary assists are accounted for in IPP.

  173. frjohnk says:

    5 on 5 during this past season
    Sabres gave up
    39 more high danger shots
    66 more medium danger shots
    194 more low danger shots
    for a total of 299 more shots than the oilers.

    but the Sabres goalies gave up 20 FEWER goals.

    Defensively, the Sabres gave up more shots, more high danger shots, more scoring chances, more high danger scoring chances, more corsi against, more fenwick against, etc than the oilers did. In some of these metrics, there are huge gaps.

    But their goalies put up better numbers than the oilers.

    GA/60
    Oilers 2.9
    Sabres 2.7

    Save %
    Oilers .902
    Sabres .923

    Ive said it before, the Sabres were so bad defensively, that the Oilers team defence was closer to league average than they were to the Sabres pitiful team defence.

    Like
    thejonrmcleod,

    says

    “Its the goalie stupid”.

  174. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    5 on 5 during this past season
    Sabres gave up
    39 more high danger shots
    66 more medium danger shots
    194 more low danger shots
    for a total of 299 more shots than the oilers.

    but the Sabres goalies gave up 20 FEWER goals.

    Defensively, the Sabres gave up more shots, more high danger shots, more scoring chances, more high danger scoring chances, more corsi against, more fenwick against, etc than the oilers did.In some of these metrics, there are huge gaps.

    But their goalies put up better numbers than the oilers.

    Ive said it before, the Sabres were so bad defensively, that the Oilers team defence was closer to league average than they were to the Sabres pitiful team defence.

    Like
    thejonrmcleod,

    says

    “Its the goalie stupid”.

    Truth

  175. Connorrhea says:

    Follow

    TSN Radio VancouverVerified account
    ‏@TSN1040
    Benning: Ryan (Miller) will for sure be back and we’ll decide on the other two guys..

  176. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Truth

    Johnfr only lists the 1st phase in close save% not 2nd phase or 3rd phase shots.

    This is an example of 1st; 2nd; 3rd phase shots.
    He is way over the expected save% for these 3 shots.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzTLnt3XOPw

    Devan dubnyk same save% as Price the 3 years before Eakins showed.
    A .937 Save% golaie in MIN.

  177. Bad Seed says:

    Woodguy,

    Awesome! I played Pasatiempo a few years ago. Great course. Envious you’re playing Spyglass and Pebble. What a great trip. Play well!

  178. Woodguy says:

    Connorrhea:
    Follow

    TSN Radio VancouverVerified account
    ‏@TSN1040
    Benning: Ryan (Miller) will for sure be back and we’ll decide on the other two guys..

    Gord bless old school GMs in the Oilers division.

  179. Woodguy says:

    Bad Seed:
    Woodguy,

    Awesome!I played Pasatiempo a few years ago.Great course.Envious you’re playing Spyglass and Pebble.What a great trip.Play well!

    Thanks.

    *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*

  180. Connorrhea says:

    Woodguy: *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*
    approaches ball
    *SHANK!*

    ftfy 😉

  181. remlap says:

    Woodguy,

    Logged in just to say that I am incredibly jealous of this golf trip you’re taking.

    The girlfriend and I did a Europe trip in fall of 2013. Had a day to enjoy solo while we were in Scotland, so I took a bus to St. Andrews. Walked on to one of their lesser courses (good luck getting on the Old Course), rented some clubs, and had an absolute blast. I didn’t even care that it wasn’t THE course out there. It was still spectacular.

    After that I will never pass up an opportunity to golf abroad.

    Good luck out there. Please please please bring back stories so that we can live vicariously through you.

  182. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy: Truth

    Oilers goalies based on league percentage gave up 2.7 goals for every 100 shots more than league avg. (league avg .915 vs .888)

    Shots against were 10 higher on the season or just over 1 tenth of a shot more per game.

    If you adjust the save percentage it works out to 66.5 goals on the season if they get league average goaltending

    2.66 goals per game is the average in 2014. 25 games bang on.

    This team is for all intents and purposes, 25 games better with league average goaltending

    Editted for context, wrong wording

  183. Factotum says:

    Woodguy: #1, #2 and #3 rated public courses in California.

    Pebble Beach is #1 public course in the entire US. Spyglass is #11 in US, Pastiempo is #75 in US.

    Stopping at Bandon on the way back?
    EDIT: Asking only because I’m an Oregonian. Pebble, Spyglass, and Pasatiempo are truly hallowed ground. Enjoy!

  184. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    First,

    Good on Woodguy and all the other posters (Gmoney, Padre, Swedish, etc.) who are using this space and others to explore their shit. I’ve been really enjoying it in my now very limited free time.

    Second,

    Woodguy… I’ve mentioned this a few times… and the truth is… it doesn’t really matter. It really doesn’t.

    But, IPP as originally conceived (I believe… I may be wrong here on original attribution) by Dellow

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2009/11/points-v-scoring.html

    and expanded on by Reynolds, eg., here:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/12/individual-point-percentage-for-2011-12

    refers to the % of

    1. Even Strength

    points a player contributes to

    2. while On the Ice.

    This definition excludes all other game states (empty net, PK, PP) and all goals scored when the player in question isn’t on the ice (even if he is playing in that game).

    ———
    None of which is to say that your “IPP” is without use, or even terribly different from the IPP we generally refer to.

    Just that for clarification’s sake… you may want to use a different term, or add a caveat, or whathaveyou.

  185. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    This is the definition Johnson gives:

    “IPP Individual Points Percentage – The percentage of goals scored by players team while player is on the ice that the player had a point on.”

    and uses on his website:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/glossary.php

  186. fifthcartel says:

    I would welcome Eddie Lack as an Oiler.

  187. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    IF we lose the first game of the season in a blowout fashion, with the goalie sucking and the defense a-laying, I may need some quiet time.

    Because Flames? Or just ‘cuz?

  188. Woodguy says:

    Factotum: Stopping at Bandon on the way back?
    EDIT:Asking only because I’m an Oregonian.Pebble, Spyglass, and Pasatiempo are truly hallowed ground.Enjoy!

    I’m not in charge (thank gord)

    We’ll. Just hang out in San Francisco on Sunday then fly back..

  189. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    First,

    Good on Woodguy and all the other posters (Gmoney, Padre, Swedish, etc.) who are using this space and others to explore their shit. I’ve been really enjoying it in my now very limited free time.

    Second,

    Woodguy… I’ve mentioned this a few times… and the truth is… it doesn’t really matter. It really doesn’t.

    But, IPP as originally conceived (I believe… I may be wrong here on original attribution) by Dellow

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2009/11/points-v-scoring.html

    and expanded on by Reynolds, eg., here:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/12/individual-point-percentage-for-2011-12

    refers to the % of

    1. Even Strength

    points a player contributes to

    2. while On the Ice.

    This definition excludes all other game states (empty net, PK, PP) and all goals scored when the player in question isn’t on the ice (even if he is playing in that game).

    ———
    None of which is to say that your “IPP” is without use, or even terribly different from the IPP we generally refer to.

    Just that for clarification’s sake… you may want to use a different term, or add a caveat, or whathaveyou.

    Thanks for chiming in Rom.

    I realized that after reading your post I linked to earlier in the thread.

    I think I’ll keep the “all situations” when I do my historical look as we don’t have 5v5 data before 11/12 for the CHL.

    Post 11/12 it will be 5v5 for sure.

    Since it was developed for NHL players the 5v5 data is readily available, but not so much for CHL.

  190. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Connorrhea:
    Follow

    TSN Radio VancouverVerified account
    ‏@TSN1040
    Benning: Ryan (Miller) will for sure be back and we’ll decide on the other two guys..

    Gord bless old school GMs in the Oilers division.

    That’s what I was thinking also.

    Kind of a “well, we’re challenging Eddie this season to see if he can become that starting goaltender” crossed with Eakins’ “I’ve got two NHL centers right now and we’ll see about the rest”.

    Wouldn’t it be something if the Canucks could blow through three #1 goalies (four if we include Miller) in three years.

  191. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Here’s the McKeen tool he was referring to for this year:

    When you said “McKeen tool” I thought you must be referring to that guy who made those comments about Button. Holy shit, is that ever out of line, especially for a person in his position (“head scout” at another media outlet). Highly unprofessional at minimum.

    Rondo:
    Grant McCagg head scout at Mckeens had this to say regarding Craig Buttons.

    “Button’s list has nothing to do with reality..you can like it because it is completely wrong if you like and has your home boy way higher than he will go…it is not the list of a “scout”..it is the list of a blindfolded dart thrower. He was a poor scout in Dallas and he was even worse in Calgary. He got to scout about 30 junior games this season..he has no clue who is good and who sucks..which is quite apparent by his list.”

    Were these words in writing somewhere, on Twitter, an on-air interview, or what? They’re appalling. I mean if you’re gonna say shit like that, save it for Glenn Healy or somebody deserving.

    This observer has grown to like Button, his segments are always worth watching even (and perhaps especially) as he’s not afraid to go out on a limb on occasion. That sets him apart from a lot of the other services which are so close to each other they can seem self-referential at times. When Button goes off the beaten path on a guy like Zach Fucale, it at least makes you step back and look at the player again, & wonder what is that Button sees that everybody else is missing? Or, what is Button missing that everybody else sees? And maybe he’s dead wrong every time he does something like that, it’d be interesting to see the results in 5 or 10 years.

    Ducey: What does he do now as a media guy? If he only sees 30 junior games a year, doesn’t go to Europe, and isn’t part of any type of scouting staff, how does he get his info? He likely hasn’t seen many of the players he provides his strong opinions on. At best he might have seen them once or twice.

    That’s not the impression I get, which is that Button sees 100s of games a year. As for Europe, was he not the colour guy (or was it intermission panelist?) at the U18s? Possible to be a “media guy” & a scout at the same time, no?

  192. blainer says:

    Woodguy: Thanks.

    *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*
    *smooth swing*

    Remember when it’s breezy hit it easy and you’ll be good… hope ya break 80..

  193. Factotum says:

    Woodguy,

    You know how when you flush, say, a 5-iron and the ball seemingly just hangs there suspended in the sky for several seconds before falling down to the green in slow motion? There’s no feeling quite like doing that when surrounded by incredible scenery on a beautiful course. Makes you feel lucky to be alive. It hasn’t happened often for me, but I hope you hit a few of those at Pebble. Cheers.

  194. One-Timer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    frjohnk,

    16 and Yakupov?

    At first I thought, “the 16th and a former 1ov for a 5th?” Yikes!
    But then, this is not your average draft.
    Maybe the way to look at it would be, What do you package along with Perron to acquire a probable top-pairing defenceman? All of a sudden, I’m not sure that Yak would be enough… Drai is the likely starting point for that kind of negotiation.
    Those picks become mighty expensive on draft day.

  195. Rondo says:

    I suspect Buttons is a drive by scout who does not have much time to scout.

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