SCREAMING TARGETS: JT MILLER

When it comes to trade talk and the Oilers, things keep coming up NY Rangers. We’ve discussed Cam Talbot, Sather the jackal and today we reach the case of JT Miller. Seems he’s been a prospect forever but Miller’s skill set may be a nice fit for the Chiarelli/McLellan Oilers. He’s fast—Edmonton has a need for speed after spending parts of the season with entire forward lines best described as tortoise—tortoise—tortoise—and fits the Chiarelli description of a player who can be hard on the puck. Let’s have a look at JT Miller.

MILLER THREE YEAR BOXCARS

miller boxcars nyr

He was a part-time player for two seasons and then this year saw Miller see more action. Interesting to see those EV points, that bodes well for the role he would likely play in Edmonton (3L, the role Matt Fraser filled after David Perron was dealt).

MILLER THREE YEAR FANCY

miller fancy nyr

Miller moved up the depth chart this season and played well in what looks like a pretty nice role for a young winger trying to make the grade (he can also play center). He formed a solid line with (mostly) Carl Hagelin and Kevin Hayes in 2014-15 and he is an RFA this summer. Miller had a 2014-15 salary of $833,000 and a cap hit of $1.419M with bonuses. He won’t be expensive next season, and of course that makes him valuable to the Rangers and Glen Sather.

SCOUTING REPORT (THE HOCKEY NEWS)

  • Assets: A wealth of speed and offensive acumen, the versatility to play center or wing, as well as the size and grit to play a power-forward’s game. Source

Miller is 22 and has endured the ups and downs of pro hockey in the last three years. An example is this comment from his coach in April of 2014:

  • Alain Vigneault: “There needs to be more commitment from his part on the ice and off the ice and, until there is, he hasn’t earned the right to be at this level on a regular basis. That’s part of any young player going through the process of being an NHL player. You’ve got to figure it out and hopefully he will. And when he does, we’ll have a good player. If he doesn’t figure it out, then he’ll be a good minor leaguer.” Source

WHAT ROLE WOULD HE PLAY IN EDMONTON?

The THN summary above is a fair reflection of his game, although for me his size (6.01, 205) and skill (as above) suggests we’re looking at a checker with 15-goal ability (and his junior career would back up that assessment). No crime there, that’s a good player and the Oilers need speed in the worst possible way. I look at Miller as 3L behind Hall and Pouliot, someone who can play alongside Anton Lander and Teddy Purcell or Nail Yakupov for this season and maybe help Leon out too should he make the grade.

Down the line, he might grow into that valuable “Pisani” two-way role the Oilers have been giving to wobbly possession gents (Ryan Jones, Lennart Petrell) these last years in an effort to get a bat into the lineup. It looks from here as though Miller has the offensive ability to score 15 a year, can help you in a two-way role (and I do understand he’s young) and maybe he can help cycle the puck many miles from the Oilers’ net.

POSSIBLE LINEUP

  • Hall—McDavid—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Yakupov/Purcell
  • Miller—Lander—Yakupov/Purcell
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer

I think Miller makes loads of sense in that role, plus he can move in to the C spot. If Leon is ready, perhaps the Oilers look at running Lander on the 4line with Hendricks and Gordon (until the deadline). The fantastic thing about Miller is he has enough natural ability to play with skill, he’s a fast train, can play center and you’re not going to kill yourself on the contract.

WHAT IS THIS GOING TO COST?

As I mentioned in the Talbot piece (here) there are several things to consider when dealing with the New York Rangers:

  • Sather is a jackal; he wins trades because he appears indifferent about the outcome of the negotiation.
  • Oilers like other Rangers like Cam Talbot
  • Rangers are looking for depth and have expensive free agents like Martin St. Louis leaving
  • Rangers cap issues mean they’re going to try to dump Klein or Boyle.
  • Rangers don’t pick until late round 2 in 2015 and have the same situation in 2016. They need picks, both years.

When it comes to dealing with Slats, there are traplines set and enough disappearing floors and walls closing in to cover off a dozen Hardy Boys books. ALL of the people you don’t want to see dealt? That’s his starting point. To my knowledge, Peter Chiarelli traded with Sather only once, acquiring Aaron Ward for Paul Mara in early 2007.

It just feels like these two teams match up so well this summer, it’s reasonable to expect they’re talking and something could happen. Hold on to your hats!

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79 Responses to "SCREAMING TARGETS: JT MILLER"

  1. Younger Oil says:

    If the plan is to get Talbot for the 16th (which I don’t fully agree with), I think it is necessary to get a guy like Miller or Klein as well, while sending a middling prospect back as well for the sake of the 50 man list.

    I’d rather not deal with Slats at all and go for Lack, all while keeping the 16th pick, but I guess I’m not the GM.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    If the plan is to get Talbot for the 16th (which I don’t fully agree with), I think it is necessary to get a guy like Miller or Klein as well, while sending a middling prospect back as well for the sake of the 50 man list.

    I’d rather not deal with Slats at all and go for Lack, all while keeping the 16th pick, but I guess I’m not the GM.

    I’d rather see EDM get Talbot and Miller for a pick this season (57), next season (second round) and a reasonable prospect. It’s Sather: He’s coming for your soul.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    I like Talbot and Yandle from NYR, this closer to what we need.

  4. Younger Oil says:

    Lowetide: I’d rather see EDM get Talbot and Miller for a pick this season (57), next season (second round) and a reasonable prospect. It’s Sather: He’s coming for your soul.

    That would be a very reasonable deal, I’m not sure Slats is that reasonable of a man though!

    Working in some conditional picks on either side dependent on if Talbot re-signs with the Oilers or not may also be a good idea.

  5. RexLibris says:

    Talbot and Miller for #57, the Oilers’ 2nd rounder next year and Martin Gernat as an example?

    If Chiarelli could pull that deal off with Sather, I think we’d consider Chiarelli having won that trade.

    Until then, though, every time I hear about the Oilers and Sather in trade talks I have this song in my head: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot7m9i70JDg

    (I had that album when I was young. Man listening to that brings back memories)

  6. fifthcartel says:

    Rishaug mentioned Francois Beauchemin as a bridge guy on a shorter term contract this morning. I’m not sure how I feel about him. Seems like he played some tough minutes this season, but his numbers away from Lindholm look kinda sketchy (51.4% CF with Lindholm, 43.8%CF without).

  7. slopitch says:

    If I’m chirelli I hold a presser and spend the whole time talking about how my scouts think it’s a deep draft. These picks have incredible value. Step up nail them and go on vacation July 1-5. Once the dust settles you can acquire players for cap space. No need to do teams favours. The picks should all be in play for d and g. But I’m offering cap space and 2016 picks. Or at least that’s my story and not even Matty hears otherwise.

  8. slopitch says:

    Also is anyone else getting timeouts? I was way more convincing the first time:P

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    Looks like a couple of Canuck goalies up for trades: http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/benning-miller-is-staying-lack-or-markstrom-will-be-traded-1.311097 It makes you wonder at the price, doesn’t it?

  10. frjohnk says:

    Use the 16th in a trade proposal with the Leafs for Bernier.

    He put up league average numbers with the 29th best team defence.

    – in his prime

    – he is RFA right now. So he can be signed for a few years.

    If the leafs are rebuilding, why have a goalie who will be in his 30″s by the time they are in contention.

    Bernier may have more value in trade than by playing with the Leafs. If he is with the Leafs they will probably win enough games to not be bottom 3. Trade Bernier and they would get a nice asset and can throw in a lesser goalie in net and embrace the tank.

  11. Kermodoil says:

    If the Oilers are trading #16 for Bernier, they have to get #24 back from Toronto.

    I would rather see the Oilers trade with Tampa, #16 for Vasilevskiy and #28.

    Better deal for both sides. It would allow Steve Y to fill a hole on his team, and the Oilers to get the young G, they need.

  12. Dashingsilverfox says:

    You know, the notion that Sather would trade not one but two actual NHL players for a draft pick that has less than a 20% chance of ever playing in the NHL is hilarious.

    If you want Talbot I think you have to be prepared to trade the 16th overall or the 33rd and Marincin.

    If you want Lack it’ll take the 33rd.

    Even in a deep draft, the 57th has very little value compared to actual NHL players.

  13. Dashingsilverfox says:

    In other news, the NHL buyout window has just opened and runs to the end of the business day on June 30.

  14. Melman says:

    slopitch,

    Clap clap

    Too much value at 16 given how many goalies are options and there’s no desperate need to have a permanent solution in net this season.

  15. Chris says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I would suspect in a deep draft year the 16th overall pick has a better than 20% chance of being an NHL player.

    I do agree though that its likely going to cost the 33rd overall pick to get a goalie. I tend to think that you offer it to the Rangers and if they say no, you hang up and call the Canucks. I’m not wholly convinced that one year of Talbot is worth a first round pick especially given his track record of only 57 games played.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    You know, the notion that Sather would trade not one but two actual NHL players for a draft pick that has less than a 20% chance of ever playing in the NHL is hilarious.

    If you want Talbot I think you have to be prepared to trade the 16th overall or the 33rd and Marincin.

    If you want Lack it’ll take the 33rd.

    Even in a deep draft, the 57th has very little value compared to actual NHL players.

    Yes. Sather is coming for the soul. It won’t be a small ask.

  17. "Steve Smith" says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Looks like a couple of Canuck goalies up for trades: http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/benning-miller-is-staying-lack-or-markstrom-will-be-traded-1.311097It makes you wonder at the price, doesn’t it?

    I presume that, in the Canucks’ finest tradition, this would be the conjunctive “or”?

  18. John Chambers says:

    "Steve Smith",

    All three of Miller, Markstrom, and Lack will be traded actually. Vancouver starts the season with Khabibulin in net.

  19. Melman says:

    Lowetide,

    Let him, and be the same disinterested cigar chewer that he is. NY has the cap issue and a goalie he can lose for nothing next summer. Too many options for Chia, and the only pressure is to improve next year. Fans will be giddy just watching CMD play and dreaming of what’s around the corner.

  20. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Sather is coming for the soul. It won’t be a small ask.

    The Devil always does.

    Makes me nostalgic for the days when he was our Devil.

  21. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LT,
    Aside from retirement, do you think it is possible to actually unload Ference this offseason without taking on a worse headache in return?

  22. Younger Oil says:

    Klima's_Bucket:
    LT,
    Aside from retirement, do you think it is possible to actually unload Ference this offseason without taking on a worse headache in return?

    Wasn’t there reported interest for him at the trade deadline, but MacT said no way?

  23. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Younger Oil,

    Apparently there was interest, but perhaps the return was another anchor contract.

  24. stush18 says:

    slopitch,

    Ya I just had to rewrite this actually. I just said I have to speed up my writing I guess. LT is all about time, time=money lol

    Actually I have been having trouble posting anything with even a singular link in it lately. It’s actually becoming too much of a hassle to post to be honest, as I’m just on my
    Phone usually.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Klima's_Bucket:
    LT,
    Aside from retirement, do you think it is possible to actually unload Ference this offseason without taking on a worse headache in return?

    I don’t think EDM could trade him without getting back a similar talent/same money. He has two years left, that second year impacts.

  26. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Lowetide,

    Based on Ference’s play last year, I’d say the first year impacts too…

  27. Ice Sage says:

    RexLibris: The Devil always does.

    Makes me nostalgic for the days when he was our Devil.

    Kaiser Saythe

  28. v4ance says:

    I know Girardi’s contract is bad but how’s this for a trade proposal:

    Girardi + Talbot for Nikitin+33 OV

    Clears $2.5 million off the Rangers cap where they get $4.5M, we get $7M in contracts. We keep that 16OV and get Talbot as well. Girardi is more expensive but at least he’ll be more effective than Nikitin.

    For the Rangers, that’ll put them around $59.5 million of cap commitments for next year. Stephan takes $5.5M on a 4-6 year extension, Miller gets $2.5M on a bridge deal, Fast gets ~$1M and the new backup gets around $1M. They’d still need to clear about $3-4 million to re-sign Hagelin but that’s another move for Sather to figure out with another team. Next year, they walk away from Nikitin and get the cap room to chase another whale.

  29. LadiesloveSmid says:

    No one really felt the Kassian floater I sent out yesterday.

    Physical, could help prevent some liberties on Hall/McD, and

    “The physical 24-year-old forward scores goals at a first-line rate at 5-on-5. Since the lockout, in fact, he’s scored goals at a rate comparable to the likes of Blake Wheeler, Jordan Eberle and Evander Kane.

    Since the lockout Kassian’s personal shooting percentage at even strength ranks sixth among the 303 NHL forwards who’ve logged at least 1500 minutes (on par with Steven Stamkos, and ahead of Corey Perry and Jonathan Toews). ”

    Park his ass in the blue paint and finish on McD’s heaps of hallelujah feeds. Honestly probably a better fit for this core moving forward than Yakcity, and I’m a Yak defender/lover.

    http://canucksarmy.com/2015/6/16/why-it-s-time-to-give-up-on-the-zack-kassian-is-a-playmaker-narrative

  30. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think EDM could trade him without getting back a similar talent/same money. He has two years left, that second year impacts.

    is there a similar talent/same money in a different position (say bottom 6 LW) that isn’t blocking emerging D? a Hendricks 2.0?

  31. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    No one really felt the Kassian floater I sent out yesterday.

    Physical, could help prevent some liberties on Hall/McD, and

    “The physical 24-year-old forward scores goals at a first-line rate at 5-on-5. Since the lockout, in fact, he’s scored goals at a rate comparable to the likes of Blake Wheeler, Jordan Eberle and Evander Kane.

    Since the lockout Kassian’s personal shooting percentage at even strength ranks sixth among the 303 NHL forwards who’ve logged at least 1500 minutes (on par with Steven Stamkos, and ahead of Corey Perry and Jonathan Toews). ”

    Park his ass in the blue paint and finish on McD’s heaps of hallelujah feeds. Honestly probably a better fit for this core moving forward than Yakcity, and I’m a Yak defender/lover.

    http://canucksarmy.com/2015/6/16/why-it-s-time-to-give-up-on-the-zack-kassian-is-a-playmaker-narrative

    If the Canucks are smart and Kassian gets his shit together (more than a few rumours about lifestyle issues) Kassian should play with the Sedins who are more set up guys than shooters.

    If that doesn’t happen, I think he would be a good pickup for the Oilers.

  32. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Never. That asshole can go play in Toronto.

  33. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Further to that, lifestyle issue players have no business being near CMD. Kassian would never be welcome in an Oilers after what he did to Gags.

    We had Corson, don’t need another.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Kassian an Oiler? Tell Bruce McCurdy the Oilers are acquiring Dustin Brown. THAT might go over better than Kassian playing here.

  35. MrEd says:

    No doubt Captain Ference was a stretch from the outset.
    Regardless, i think now what’s best is to stick with the guy.
    He’ll perform next year because that’s his style. Contract be damned.
    His last year? A gift to the fans.
    He’ll do it.

    He competes. He punches people in the mouth when it’s called for. He knows.
    It’s enough.

    #FerenceistheCaptain.

  36. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LadiesloveSmid: is there a similar talent/same money in a different position (say bottom 6 LW) that isn’t blocking emerging D? a Hendricks 2.0?

    I think if you looked through each team’s roster you could probably come up with the player type you are describing.
    The problem is Ference signed a retirement contract to finish out his career at home in Edmonton.
    The only place I could see Ference agreeing to be traded to would be Boston. And they are in cap hell.

  37. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Further to that, lifestyle issue players have no business being near CMD. Kassian would never be welcome in an Oilers after what he did to Gags.

    We had Corson, don’t need another.

    Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson and Grant Fuhr (not to mention Dave Hunter and others) also had lifestyle issues.

    It turned out okay.

  38. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    We’re going to compare asshat McGee to three of the greatest players of their generation ??

    Man we need to get you drunk more, I bet some wild shit would land here for us to really scrap over.

  39. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    We’re going to compare Kassian to three of the greatest players of their generation to Kassian ??

    Man we need to get you drunk more, I bet some wild shit would land here for us to really scrap over.

    No one was comparing their hockey skills…just their lifestyles.

    Trust me…I saw it first hand.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: If the Canucks are smart and Kassian gets his shit together (more than a few rumours about lifestyle issues) Kassian should play with the Sedins who are more set up guys than shooters.

    If that doesn’t happen, I think he would be a good pickup for the Oilers.

    He’s a real POS, but he’d honestly be a pretty great fit for McD imo. People will take runs at McD and Kassian has a real knack for scoring. A big guy that can shoot and bang home in the paint would do wonders, I’d think.

  41. Snowman says:

    Good fit or not, Kassian is a dirtbag and I hope he rots with the Canucks/Leafs/Flames for the rest of time.

    I’m not sure I can think of any player that I’d hate to see as an Oiler more than Kassian.

  42. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: He’s a real POS, but he’d honestly be a pretty great fit for McD imo. People will take runs at McD and Kassian has a real knack for scoring. A big guy that can shoot and bang home in the paint would do wonders, I’d think.

    Pretty much every successful team has a DINK on its roster. Some teams have several.

    Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Patrick Maroon come to mind and that’s just the Ducks.

    Oiler fans would warm up to Kassian in about a heartbeat if he laid a big lick on Johnny Hockey.

  43. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Just wondering which players y’all think are going to be bought out in the next 12 days?

    I think Cody Hodgson and Alex Semin are pretty much slam dunks.

    Others?

    Nikitin?

  44. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Snowman:
    Good fit or not, Kassian is a dirtbag and I hope he rots with the Canucks/Leafs/Flames for the rest of time.

    I’m not sure I can think of any player that I’d hate to see as an Oiler more than Kassian.

    Matt Cooke?

    Dustin Brown?

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Pretty much every successful team has a DINK on its roster. Some teams have several.

    Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Patrick Maroon come to mind and that’s just the Ducks.

    Oiler fans would warm up to Kassian in about a heartbeat if he laid a big lick on Johnny Hockey.

    I hate Kassian (almost, apparently) as much as the next guy. I think from a product on the ice standpoint, it’d be a good move.

    Is he a real D bag off the ice? I haven’t heard much.

  46. Younger Oil says:

    Honestly, hate Kassian, but would love to have him on the team. He’s a classless, foul mouthed asshole, but man can he get under the skin of the other team. The last guy we had like that was Torres, who was honestly huge for the team (by my memory at least).

    With Purcell leaving after this season, he would do well as our #3RW who can move up if needed.

    If not, all we can really do is hope that Chase can grow into that role, and that’s far from a guarantee.

  47. slopitch says:

    Semin? He’ll turn around and sign a 1 year 2 million dollar deal with Pittsburgh (former gm).

    I think nikitin is bought out shortly.

  48. Kermodoil says:

    Kassian was injured at the end of the season – back issue. He seems to be an enigma, plays very well with top 6 players, but is not defensively responsible enough, or hit enough to stay on the top line. When he goes back on the third line, he does not produce enough, and is not consistent in playing the body.

    I doubt the canucks can sign Mathias, as they are tight against the cap.

    Bieksa, is a great character player but seems to have lost a step. He played a lot of hard minutes the past few years. Sounds like he wants an extension to his contract before agreeing to open his no trade clause.

  49. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Younger Oil:
    Honestly, hate Kassian, but would love to have himon the team. He’s a classless, foul mouthed asshole, but man can he get under the skin of the other team. The last guy we had like that was Torres, who was honestly huge for the team (by my memory at least).

    With Purcell leaving after this season, he would do well as our #3RW who can move up if needed.

    If not, all we can really do is hope that Chase can grow into that role, and that’s far from a guarantee.

    As, Ladielovesmid has pointed out, Kassian actually has a lot of skill although he’s prone to pass when he should shoot.

    But for a huge net front presence, he would be fantastic.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Just wondering which players y’all think are going to be bought out in the next 12 days?

    I think Cody Hodgson and Alex Semin are pretty much slam dunks.

    Others?

    Nikitin?

    Richards, maybe. Weiss? Stalberg?

    haven’t heard much

  51. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Kermodoil:
    Kassian was injured at the end of the season – back issue.He seems to be an enigma, plays very well with top 6 players, but is not defensively responsible enough,or hit enough to stay on the top line.When he goes back on the third line, he does not produce enough, and is not consistent in playing the body.

    I doubt the canucks can sign Mathias, as they are tight against the cap.

    Bieksa, is a great character player but seems to have lost a step.He played a lot of hard minutes the past few years.Sounds like he wants an extension to his contract before agreeing to open his no trade clause.

    The innuendo on Vancouver radio was, without any specifics, that there was more to Kassian’s absence than just an injury.

    No idea what but both Gillis and Benning have mentioned he needs more focus on his “game”.

    Whatever that means.

  52. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: As, Ladielovesmid has pointed out, Kassian actually has a lot of skill although he’s prone to pass when he should shoot.

    But for a huge net front presence, he would be fantastic.

    that canucks army blog paints it well

    carries a shooting percentage over 14% and scores well with skilled players (Sedins—Hall-McDavid)

    comparable 5v5 goal scoring rate to Eberle/E Kane. Doesn’t create a whole lot of shots, but converts a lot which seems great since maybe the best playmaker(player) in the league 2 years from now could be setting him up left right and centre.

    not really sure what that trade would look like, worth exploring I say

  53. Younger Oil says:

    If Lack would cost #33, what would Lack and Kassian cost? Would expect we’d want to send a forward contract back the other way. #33, a 2016 3rd or 4th, and Klinkhammer?

    And the Canucks demanded a lot more from the Oilers for Schneider, wouldn’t they likely do the same for Lack?

  54. Kermodoil says:

    Younger Oil:
    If Lack would cost #33, what would Lack and Kassian cost? Would expect we’d want to send a forward contract back the other way. #33, a 2016 3rd or 4th, and Klinkhammer?

    And the Canucks demanded a lot more from the Oilers for Schneider, wouldn’t they likely do the same for Lack?

    Different Gm with the Canucks during the Schneider trade. Jim Benning, will look for the best deal, and does not seem to care who he trades with. Last year’s Kessler trade was a perfect example, he was only given two teams to trade with; Chi and Ana. Chi did not have cap space for Kesler, so he made the best deal he could with Ana.

    The Canucks do not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. I am sure a deal could be made.

  55. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Vinny Lecavalier’s days in Philly could be numbered…

  56. Captain Smarmy says:

    The devil once sold Satan for Barry Moore and Craig Miller.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Captain Smarmy:
    The devil once sold Satan for Barry Moore and Craig Miller.

    Winner!

  58. SwedishPoster says:

    Captain Smarmy:
    The devil once sold Satan for Barry Moore and Craig Miller.

    There can only be one lord of darkness.

  59. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The innuendo on Vancouver radio was, without any specifics, that there was more to Kassian’s absence than just an injury.

    No idea what but both Gillis and Benning have mentioned he needs more focuson his “game”.

    Whatever that means.

    I know something about this, but can’t say. I just want to say it’s NOT what people speculate it is (ie, not about partying). But it’s been a rough year for him. And getting rougher.

    That said, he’s not a fit for the Oilers. There’s some history with certain players where it would cause some locker room issues.

    Oilers should look elsewhere for their power forward.

  60. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    LadiesloveSmid:

    Is he a real D bag off the ice? I haven’t heard much.

    No. He’s not, at least he didn’t used to be. Although he’s been going through some rough times of late and it is affecting him. Will leave it at that.

  61. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Would people here prefer:
    1) Lack for 33rd
    2) Bernier for 16th
    3) Talbot + something(Miller or Klein or…) for 16th + something else?
    I know, hard to guess what “something else” is, but likely to be nastyit if it’s Sather.

  62. LP says:

    LOL… I’ll say this, yes Sather has a reputation, but he is getting long in the tooth, maybe he trades the wrong guy? Who says Chiarelli couldn’t make out nicely in trading with him?

    This isn’t Tambo / MacT no more. – I know, its hard to believe.

    Very nice!

  63. AsiaOil says:

    Murray is sipping fine Kool-Aid if he think that he’ll get a top 6 forward and a good draft pick for Lehner or Anderson. I would not touch Lehner at all for more than a 3rd – he’s a sketchy backup with health issues as it stands. But if he’ll take Purcell as the top 6 forward and the Montreal 3rd for Anderson – sign me up – cap works with Purcell off their books next summer.

    I’m just not that keen on any Talbot deal because of his pending UFA status and not being able to extend until January. You will have very little time and almost zero leverage to resign him – so determining a fair deal will be difficult if not impossible. If he starts well the cost will be UFA high – if he starts badly then he’s too risky to sign longterm. The situation stinks and I’d be happy to let Sather deal with it unless he is willing to take the Montreal picks we got for Petry – period. Only other thing I might consider is #16, MON 3rd and Shultz for Talbot and Yandle – that gets Shultz out of our hair and addresses a couple of needs. But let Chia be just as disinterested in Slat’s offer – he’s the one with the pending UFA with all the leverage problem.

    Lack, Markstrom and all the UFA are all out there as well – so no need to be desperate – and the bidding for that #16 will be hot and heavy at the draft. Nice to have a bit of confidence in the guy talking trade for a change – we’ll see how it goes.

  64. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Would LA really buy out their captain over Richards ?

  65. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Just wondering which players y’all think are going to be bought out in the next 12 days?I think Cody Hodgson and Alex Semin are pretty much slam dunks.Others?Nikitin?

    No Oilers will be bought out imo.

  66. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    square_wheels,

    I’d be shocked in Brown was bought out. He’s the face of the franchise & is still quite young.

    His performance over the past two years justifies a buyout, I agree, but I don’t think it’s that simple. People around here talk about the difficulty of buying out Ference because he’s this respected character guy… Brown was captain of two stanley cup champion teams and of the US Olympic Team 18 months ago. I don’t see it. Not yet anyway.

  67. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pouzar,

    Agreed. Not worth carrying the cap hit into future years. Better off trying to sell at 50% held back if possible.

  68. russ99 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Markstorm is still very interesting. I wonder if he can be had for the #33, a mid range prospect and one of our cap problems (Purcell, Nikitin, Ference) to balance the numbers.

    He had one poor season but when he’s on he has a ceiling higher than any other goalie available.

    Plus his cap number goes down to $5M when McDavid’s ELC ends.

    Talbot is obviously the best choice but we’re dealing with fire when going against Sather, and there’s no assurance Talbot won’t walk next summer. Too risky.

  69. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    russ99,

    Doesn’t he make like $1.5million or so?

  70. johnnyshaka says:

    square_wheels:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Would LA really buy out their captain over Richards ?

    I believe Dashingsilverfox threw out Brown and Cooke as players who some might hate more than Kassian and not as buyout options.

  71. blainer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    square_wheels,

    I’d be shocked in Brown was bought out.He’s the face of the franchise & is still quite young.

    His performance over the past two years justifies a buyout, I agree, but I don’t think it’s that simple.People around here talk about the difficulty of buying out Ference because he’s this respected character guy…Brown was captain of two stanley cup champion teams and of the US Olympic Team 18 months ago.I don’t see it.Not yet anyway.

    Use the 57th for Markstrom or Lack.. the 33rd for Talbot.. waiver Scrivens.. Trade the 16th Shultz and Yak for Hamilton + .. Press box Ference and sign Winnick. Draft CMD and take the rest of the summer off.

  72. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Physical, could help prevent some liberties on Hall/McD, and
    “The physical 24-year-old forward scores goals at a first-line rate at 5-on-5. Since the lockout, in fact, he’s scored goals at a rate comparable to the likes of Blake Wheeler, Jordan Eberle and Evander Kane.

    OF the 287 top 9 scoring forwards.
    Kassians .175 EVG/gm is 120/287 a 2nd line even scoring rate there with
    Simmmonds .183 100/287
    C. giroux .180 107/287
    Abdelkader .180 107/287
    Kesler .177 114/287
    Bickell .176 116/287
    ——————————————————
    Hall .249 29/287
    Eberle .244 33/287
    B. Pouliuot .174 122/287 .241 W/ edmonton 34/287
    RNH healthy .278 18/287
    Yakupov Non eakins .222 49/287

  73. Showerhead says:

    “Sather is a jackal; he wins trades because he appears indifferent about the outcome of the negotiation.”

    I’m going to go ahead and assume there are some great stories out there. Can anyone direct me to some?

  74. G Money says:

    russ99: Markstorm is still very interesting. I wonder if he can be had for the #33, a mid range prospect and one of our cap problems (Purcell, Nikitin, Ference) to balance the numbers.
    He had one poor season but when he’s on he has a ceiling higher than any other goalie available.

    Please explain.

    Markstrom has had terrific non-NHL numbers, but some perspective is needed.

    He has faced 1,315 NHL shots and delivered a .896 EV sv%.

    By comparison, by the time Cam Talbot faced 1,317 NHL shots, he delivered a .933 EV sv%.

    After 1,300 shots (that’s the cutoff that WheatNOil used in his comparison of the early careers of goalies that I will be publishing shortly), Ben Scrivens was at .927, and Eddie Lack was at .921.

    While 1,300 shots (equal to somewhere between 45 and 50 starts) is reasonably considered a small sample, the analysis work that I’m doing on WheatNOil’s numbers suggests that it is a much better predictor of long-term success than most people think it is.

    After 1,300 shots, in the last 10 years, Markstrom is behind such stellar company as:

    Justin Peters .911
    Ondrej Pavelec .911
    Karri Ramo .911
    Jeff Deslauriers .910
    Viktor Fasth .909
    Curtis McElhinney .908
    Joey MacDonald .906
    Peter Budaj .904
    Cam Ward .902

    Cam Ward it should be pointed out is the largest mover on the list, in that his career number of .917 is +0.015 from his 1,300 number (his career arc also makes more sense when you use war-on-ice’s adjusted sv%).

    The average change from 1,300-save to career sv% change for the sample set is about +0.001. In other words, if a goalie is at .910 at 1,300 saves, his predicted career sv% is .911.

    It would be absolutely awesome if the Canucks kept Miller and Markstrom and traded away Eddie Lack, because non-AHL record aside, the NHL evidence indicates, more strongly than you’d think, that Lack is the better of the two goalies. Goalies who post sub-.900 records after 50 games in the NHL rarely turn into NHL goalies.

  75. rickithebear says:

    >20+ GPG @ 18 post 12-13 lockout:
    semin .181 106/287
    Kulemin .141 198/287
    Ovi .343 4/287
    Malkin .250 26/87
    Tarasenko .279 15/287
    Kuznetsov .120 229/287
    Yakupon eakinless .222 48/287

    Slepyshev ????
    Slepyshev end of seaon suggests .294 9/287
    Yakimov ?????
    Yakimov’s 18 year season suggests .242 34/287

  76. TheGreatMutato says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Would people here prefer:
    1) Lack for 33rd
    2) Bernier for 16th
    3) Talbot + something(Miller or Klein or…) for 16th + something else?
    I know, hard to guess what “something else” is, but likely to be nastyit if it’s Sather.

    Personally, I prefer option 1. I would like to see the Oilers use the 16th pick, believing that the value of a good, cheap player in a few years time is greater than the value of whatever we’d get for it right now.

    Of course, I’m not convinced the Canucks do that trade without some kind of division tax.

    On the subject of Sather, we should remember that whatever he wins in trades, he then turns around and gives up with free agent signings. We can take some comfort in knowing he’ll shoot himself in the foot the moment after he finishes fleecing the Oilers.

    On the subject of Kassian, we all know that there is a huge difference between someone being a POS and someone being our POS. He would be an effective addition.

  77. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Please explain.

    Markstrom has had terrific non-NHL numbers, but some perspective is needed.

    He has faced 1,315 NHL shots and delivered a .896 EV sv%.

    By comparison, by the time Cam Talbot faced 1,317 NHL shots, he delivered a .933 EV sv%.

    After 1,300 shots (that’s the cutoff that WheatNOil used in his comparison of the early careers of goalies that I will be publishing shortly), Ben Scrivens was at .927, and Eddie Lack was at .921.

    While 1,300 shots (equal to somewhere between 45 and 50 starts) is reasonably considered a small sample, the analysis work that I’m doing on WheatNOil’s numbers suggests that it is a much better predictor of long-term success than most people think it is.

    After 1,300 shots, in the last 10 years, Markstrom is behind such stellar company as:

    Justin Peters .911
    Ondrej Pavelec .911
    Karri Ramo .911
    Jeff Deslauriers .910
    Viktor Fasth .909
    Curtis McElhinney .908
    Joey MacDonald .906
    Peter Budaj .904
    Cam Ward .902

    Cam Ward it should be pointed out is the largest mover on the list, in that his career number of .917 is +0.015 from his 1,300 number (his career arc also makes more sense when you use war-on-ice’s adjusted sv%).

    The average change from 1,300-save to career sv% change for the sample set is about +0.001. In other words, if a goalie is at .910 at 1,300 saves, his predicted career sv% is .911.

    It would be absolutely awesome if the Canucks kept Miller and Markstrom and traded away Eddie Lack, because non-AHL record aside, the NHL evidence indicates, more strongly than you’d think, that Lack is the better of the two goalies.Goalies who post sub-.900 records after 50 games in the NHL rarely turn into NHL goalies.

    I think you have the wrong numbers there, G Money, though your point is still valid. You quoted Markstrom’s shots and save percentages in all situations, not even-strength.

    Markstrom has only faced 1051 even-strength shots on net and his Even-strength save percentage is .905 (still not good and your point stands, but I thought I’d correct for accuracy).

    I had to look it up because I got concerned that I missed someone in my research, but it turns out I didn’t include him because he hasn’t yet reached a “Talbot” (1300 even-strength shots).

  78. russ99 says:

    wheatnoil,

    To me the value of Markstrom is less about the underlying numbers, and more about a proven track record being the #1 guy who can carry the majority of the season, steal a number of games, etc.

    All the other candidates (besides Niemi) are career backups that we hope can be that #1 guy, much like Scrivens and Dubnyk. Obviously the numbers tell us who will be best suited to make that leap, but they still have to do it.

    The issues with Markstrom are age/cap number, performance last season and he’s been awful in the playoffs historically.

  79. Regretzky says:

    Does anyone else feel we should focus is on the D rather than dealing with the devil for a goaltender? Researching the articles at the time we swapped Dubnyk for Scrivens it’s abundantly clear the team in front was the problem. Scrivens had loads of potential! Does an improved D corps married with the hockey sense our new coach will bring not give Scrivens ample opportunity to bounce back the same way Dubnyk did? Or are we going to be saying how terrible Talbot is this time next year?

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