CHIARELLI’S LIST

By this time next weekend, we’ll know what happened to Edmonton’s 10 draft picks, we’ll have a better idea about what will be needed in free agency and it’s a decent bet we’ll know the name of the Oilers’ No. 1 goalie for next season. We know one of the names now (Connor McDavid) and can guess at a few more (Cam Talbot) but there’s no doubt at all we’re right at the beginning of an historic week for this hockey team.

CHIARELLI’S LIST

  1. Draft McDavid (and sign him)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (this is the Talbot/Lehner item)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (as always, clear as mud days before bullets fly)
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F (I’m hoping for Soderberg)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for someone goooooood)

He may do more (two defensemen would be better than one) and he may offload some others (no Nikitin OS yet) but those five items above (really four) are central to the summer. Talbot, Sekera, Soderberg, Marincin. Is that too much to ask from a veteran GM?

This gets us here:

  • Hall—McDavid—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Purcell
  • Soderberg—Lander—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
  • Sekera—Nikitin
  • Marincin—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Talbot—Scrivens

If they could just replace Nikitin with an actual NHL defenseman.

ETHAN BEAR

As we get closer to draft day I’ll be doing brief looks at draft prospects who have been somewhat overlooked so far in our discussions. Up first is Ethan Bear (Kelly Friesen’s article above is excellent) who plays first-pairing minutes for the Thunderbirds. He’s a strong defenseman, 6.0, 205 and shoots right. His boxcars (69GP, 13-25-38) suggest a solid two-way type and his skating is mentioned as being ‘powerful’ in many reports I’ve read. His offensive calling card is a strong shot and that might (might, never get carried away with a junior blue who has a good shot. Bet against him getting the job in the NHL and you’ll be right a lot) see him get 5×4 time down the line.

  • Ethan Bear boxcars: 69GP, 13-25-38
  • Ethan Bear Evens: 69GP, 6-9-15
  • Ethan Bear Power Play: 69GP, 7-16-23
  • Ethan Bear Penalty Kill: 69GP, 0-0-0

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177 Responses to "CHIARELLI’S LIST"

  1. KozyMel says:

    Other than having 2&3 backwards, #5 should be #1, #1, #1, #1 ……..

  2. Concur says:

    I fear for the 16th pick. The Oilers will have someone available for the 16th pick (Roy) that would fill a need, and they will stretch pick someone (goalie or Crouse).

  3. Walter Sobchak says:

    I noticed your list has Zacha at 16………

    Do the Oilers take him if he’s still on the board?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Walter Sobchak:
    I noticed your list has Zacha at 16………

    Do the Oilers take him if he’s still on the board?

    Yes. I believe EDM would have him in the top 8 overall.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    Hanifin is going to be an awkward pick, he should go number 3…. But both Arizona and TML will want a centre to start their rebuild.

    Driasaital for the next big impact defenseman?

  6. TheOtherJohn says:

    Oilers should assemble a draft package centered around Draisatl +++ to trade for OEL. It will be prohibitively expensive but it gives us a #1 D for 4 years

    Maloney gets Hanifan and a big bodied offensive C

  7. verdad2.0 says:

    Again, the real issue is whether Hall is traded before Friday for OEL.

    That is the real transformation move that would make the OIlers instantly credible for the playoffs and beyond.

    Beyond that all picks the Oilers hold should be first deployed for accumulating functional defensemen.

    Nikitin, Schultz and Ference should never again play for the Oilers.

    Straight forward really.

    If Arizona doesn’t play, then offer sheet at the extreme end for Hamilton and move on.

    But at all costs do not trade for a goalie.
    No one can make a rational case that Talbot is any better than the available goalie UFAs.

    eg , Ramo no worse than Talbot.

  8. Evilas says:

    verdad2.0,

    I am obsessed with trading for OEL and OSing Hamilton….To get Hamilton it would have to be about $8 million I think….
    I am all in for Leon + Schultz + LaLeggia (this could be argued, but all 3 are famous prospects, Arizona might want a pick or two thrown in for good measure, but I would want to hang on to as many as possible in this draft) for OEL and then offer sheeting Hamilton 5 x $8 Million, pick up Lack or Talbot for the 57th pick, Trade Purcell with salary retained for magic beans, Nikitin as well, or a buy-out, I think they will explore a way to trade him first….
    (4) Pouliot – (6) Nuge – (6) Eberle
    (6) Hall – (3.875) CMD – (.925) Slepy
    (.818) Pakarinen – (.988) Lander – (2.5) Yak
    (1.85) Hendo – (3) Gordo – ( .798) Pitlick
    (.725) Klinko
    (5.5) OEL – (8) Hamilton
    (.894) Klefbom – (4.5) Michalek
    (.891) Marincin – (3.625) Fayne
    (3.25) Ference
    (1.15) Lack
    (2.3) Scrivens
    Approximate Salary (66.6 Million) This would be tight, and it is questionable if Michalek would take a 3 x4.5 offer… I think Franson could be had for that though…
    I think this illustrates the value of value contracts (Marincin/Lander/Pakarinen/Slepy, etc). Is this a playoff team, maybe not, but they will be knocking on the door. This is a vastly improved D Corps…

  9. Kermodoil says:

    Enough with the dreaming/fantasy that Arizona is going to trade OEL. It isn’t going to happen.

    The have a budding star defenceman, these players do not come around that often.

    Ideally teams build from the G/D out – see LA Kings, and Detroit.

    Trying to offer sheet Hamilton, is essentially starting rebuild #5 or whatever rebuild we are up to now. It will ham string the Oilers for year come

  10. admiralmark says:

    I don’t know how his to do list cannot include the departure of at minimum 1 of Nikitin/Ference/Schultz? They are 50% of the D currently and each one is a detriment to the team. Admittedly I’m no GM but last season watching these 3 drove home to me that they bring a negative to the table. And I wouldn’t allow another season for them to drag the team down. Especially with Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, Davidson on the team. I just don’t understand how any GM wouldn’t think they are detrimental to the development of the young d men.

  11. Ray says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    What if the cost was Driasiatl,Yak, the 16th, plus Marincin?

    That’s a dear price. OEL is the perfect piece for this team but I’m not sure that’s where I spend my money.

  12. Evilas says:

    Kermodoil,

    So what would you like to see done then?

  13. Henry says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Oilers should assemble a draft package centered around Draisatl +++ to trade for OEL. It will be prohibitively expensive but it gives us a #1 Dfor 4 years

    Maloney gets Hanifan and a big bodied offensive C

    I agree that OEL would be great for the Oilers, but don’t see that Maloney would trade a sure thing in OEL, drafting Strome for Draisatl and Hanifan.

  14. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark:
    I don’t know how his to do list cannot include the departure of at minimum 1 of Nikitin/Ference/Schultz? They are 50% of the D currently and each one is a detriment to the team. Admittedly I’m no GM but last season watching these 3 drove home to me that they bring a negative to the table. And I wouldn’t allow another season for them to drag the team down. Especially with Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, Davidson on the team. I just don’t understand how any GM wouldn’t think they are detrimental to the development of the young d men.

    The buyout window is open. Crickets. That MAY be nothing, Edmonton may proceed and do it Monday. However, I think it’s reasonable to question if it’s going to happen.

  15. misfit says:

    I watched Bear a couple of times this year, and while I wasn’t watching for him, I did hear his name a lot.

    But one overlooked prospect I think it might be worth mentioning is Kelowna backup Jake Morrissey. Limited starts but great numbers and might be the youngest player in the draft. I think he could be this draft’s Steve Mason.

  16. speeds says:

    Lowetide: The buyout window is open. Crickets. That MAY be nothing, Edmonton may proceed and do it Monday. However, I think it’s reasonable to question if it’s going to happen.

    Sure it’s reasonable to question. Can not just as good a case can be made to not buy him out as can be made for buying him out?

  17. Ray says:

    @DuckMillard: Hearing the #Oilers have relieved some scouts of their duties. Draft a week from yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/DuckMillard/status/612405713512480768

    Thanks for your lists boys. They suck and I don’t like your sideburns. Be out of the office by 4 and stop by HR on the way out. Wish you the best.

  18. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ray:
    @DuckMillard: Hearing the #Oilers have relieved some scouts of their duties. Draft a week from yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/DuckMillard/status/612405713512480768

    Thanks for your lists boys. They suck and I don’t like your sideburns. Be out of the office by 4 and stop by HR on the way out. Wish you the best.

    Not sure when the “usual” dismissal period for scouts but, like coaches, probably better to be let go early as opposed to late.

  19. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    How do you buy out Nikitin without having a replacement signed?

    You already need to get one good one to replace Petry and get the team back up to last years putrid levels.

    The second D acquired needs to replace one of Nikitin, Ference, or Schultz. And of that list, Schultz’s importance to the offense and Nikitin’s mixed numbers (despite the fact that he fails eye test) mean they may have some importance to the team.

    On the other hand, by eye or by fancystat, it’s Ference that needs to go, and frankly, its not close.

    The fact that Double Agent’s not bought out tells me that Chia isn’t that close to signing or trading for any replacement mid-level D.

    Not that surprising.

  20. hunter1909 says:

    Ray: Thanks for your lists boys. They suck and I don’t like your sideburns. Be out of the office by 4 and stop by HR on the way out. Wish you the best.

    They all deserve to be sacked. More prophylactic reduction of Lowe+MacT’s “legacy”.

  21. admiralmark says:

    Ray:
    @DuckMillard: Hearing the #Oilers have relieved some scouts of their duties. Draft a week from yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/DuckMillard/status/612405713512480768

    Thanks for your lists boys. They suck and I don’t like your sideburns. Be out of the office by 4 and stop by HR on the way out. Wish you the best.

    Could this include Pro Scouts as well? Fingers crossed.

  22. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money,

    Doubt that Ference is one to go. NTC, past relationship with Chia in Boston, buy-out would stretch over 4 years, fitness freak. Shame about the hockey skill but price of poker.

    NN may be a trade piece once the FA frenzy has settled down a bit. Probably better to trade his contract for a team needing to hit the floor or to retain some of the salary so that you end the bleeding this year as opposed to a buy-out making it a further year of torment.

  23. Ray says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    How do you buy out Nikitin without having a replacement signed?

    You already need to get one good one to replace Petry and get the team back up to last years putrid levels.

    The second D acquired needs to replace one of Nikitin, Ference, or Schultz.And of that list, Schultz’s importance to the offense and Nikitin’s mixed numbers (despite the fact that he fails eye test) mean they may have some importance to the team.

    On the other hand, by eye or by fancystat, it’s Ference that needs to go, and frankly, its not close.

    The fact that Double Agent’s not bought out tells me that Chia isn’t that close to signing or trading for any replacement mid-level D.

    Not that surprising.

    Any of the AHL defense are a better option than Niki. If he is still on the roster then you’re not good enough. If that’s the case you should play the kids at this point.

    My only hope is he is included in a trade to balance taking on a slightly over paid, but still competent in his expected role, player back

  24. G Money says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Absolutely. I certainly think that trading Nikitin for a bag of pucks with salary retained is better than buying him out.

    But we still need a replacement.

    If Ference is on this defense next year, I don’t see much scope for improvement on the team. He’s really that bad.

    My hope is that Chia, who watched him decline three years ago and refused to sign him despite his popularity with the fans in Boston, is acutely aware that three years past ‘not good enough’ is a very bad thing, and at best, we see Ference as a 7D.

    But it means we still need a replacement!

  25. Ray says:

    Doug McLachlan: Not sure when the “usual” dismissal period for scouts but, like coaches, probably better to be let go early as opposed to late.

    No disagreement with the timing. Your probably right this is the best thing to do from a human stand point. Gives them the best options of finding anther gig. The decision was foreshadowed for months though, so good to see the action done. I just hope the ones that have been doing good work as of late still stick around.

  26. G Money says:

    Ray: Any of the AHL defense are a better option than Niki. If he is still on the roster then you’re not good enough. If that’s the case you should play the kids at this point.

    Actually, any of the AHL defense are a better option than Ference. Especially Oesterle, I’d take him in a heartbeat over Ference.

    Despite his “seen him bad” status, Nikitin’s objective results (while bad) are generally not as bad as Ference’s – which says something amazing considering Ference spent most of last season with Petry.

  27. G Money says:

    Doug McLachlan: Not sure when the “usual” dismissal period for scouts but, like coaches, probably better to be let go early as opposed to late.

    When Chia joined seemingly an eternity ago, there were a LOT of people here angry that he hadn’t come in and sacked everybody, especially the OBC.

    As I pointed out at the time, my experience over years and years in business is that the executives who come in and clean house without taking the time to understand the who, what, and why of the existing business inevitably fail. They let critically important knowledge walk out the door, especially the knowledge of where the real failure points are, and where the bodies are buried.

    Inevitably, in a dysfunctional company like the Oilers, there are lots of bad people that need to be shown the door – but there also always good people caught in a bad situation. Put them in a good situation and they can become your most valuable employees in short order.

    In other words, the new executives who succeed come in, take the time to assess, and THEN start making decisions.

    I said at the time that I believe Chia is both smart and experienced, and expected therefore that we would start to see people being shown the door starting about a month or two after Chia starts. *That’s* the smart move.

    *checks watch*

    Right on time.

  28. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    G Money: Actually, any of the AHL defense are a better option than Ference.Especially Oesterle, I’d take him in a heartbeat over Ference.

    Despite his “seen him bad” status, Nikitin’s objective results (while bad) are generally not as bad as Ference’s – which says something amazing considering Ference spent most of last season with Petry.

    For me it’s the Gagner eyeball test, or GET. If a player is continually on GA highlight packages blowing coverage or not reacting to the play to pick up a blown coverage right beside him, and then particularly and especially making some physical gesture like head tilted back as in “my bad”, over and over and over and over and over again, and keeps doing it, and doing it, they fail the GET and should be liquidated immediately before blight sets in.

    And I like good players that work and learn and make the effort to not repeat errors. Not perfect but not bad.

  29. Ray says:

    G Money: Actually, any of the AHL defense are a better option than Ference.Especially Oesterle, I’d take him in a heartbeat over Ference.

    Despite his “seen him bad” status, Nikitin’s objective results (while bad) are generally not as bad as Ference’s – which says something amazing considering Ference spent most of last season with Petry.

    I don’t think my comments on NN infers a different opinion about the captain.

    I tend to agree with you. This logic should apply to both of them.

  30. Lowetide says:

    speeds: Sure it’s reasonable to question.Can not just as good a case can be made to not buy him out as can be made for buying him out?

    Depends. Is keeping Nikitin forcing out Marincin? If it is, then no, it isn’t reasonable to argue that imo.

  31. G Money says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    Perhaps.

    This is a bit of the “Petry failure model” though. Focusing on the mistakes certainly can’t be ignored, but it has the effect of making the plays that are done well and without fanfare disappear into the background.

    The Petry-haters out there focused on his occasional giveaways and non-hits … and forgot about all the plays he made with no fanfare to stop the other team from getting chances, or the many times he carried the puck without giving the puck away, or the hits he did throw (he was second on the D in that category).

    There’s an element of that going on with Nikitin and especially Schultz. A ridiculous amount of the teams offense goes through Schultz, but people can’t (or refuse to) see it because of the defensive lapses. I think this is also the case with Nikitin but less so (by which I mean, he makes just as many mistakes as Schultz, but doesn’t drive offense the same way – but still gets no credit for those things he does do well on occasion).

    I’m also less concerned with “body language” after a mistake than I am with the repeat of mistakes. I have more time for repeated mistakes from someone with 200 games (JS) or 248 games (NN) in the NHL than I do with someone who has 900+ games.

  32. gd says:

    G Money: When Chia joined seemingly an eternity ago, there were a LOT of people here angry that he hadn’t come in and sacked everybody, especially the OBC.

    As I pointed out at the time, my experience over years and years in business is that the executives who come in and clean house without taking the time to understand the who, what, and why of the existing business inevitably fail.They let critically important knowledge walk out the door, especially the knowledge of where the real failure points are, and where the bodies are buried.

    Inevitably, in a dysfunctional company like the Oilers, there are lots of bad people that need to be shown the door – but there also always good people caught in a bad situation.Put them in a good situation and they can become your most valuable employees in short order.

    In other words, the new executives who succeed come in, take the time to assess, and THEN start making decisions.

    I said at the time that I believe Chia is both smart and experienced, and expected therefore that we would start to see people being shown the door starting about a month or two after Chia starts.*That’s* the smart move.

    *checks watch*

    Right on time.

    I completely agree. I believe there is going to be a limit to what Chia can accomplish this offseason as he has to get staff that he is comfortable with. It is hard to find the next Boychuck/Seidenberg when you have the scouting staff who found Nikitin/Barker. One of the reasons I don’t think they can pick Samsonov is there is no way Chia can trust the Oiler’s scouts to know a “generational” goalie when they see him.

    Ps: it is also why I was happy to see them retain Dellow. It shows an openness to keep smart people, even if they were hired by the scapegoated former coach.

  33. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    The final installment in the investigation of early stage goalies (co-authored w WheatNOil).

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/goalies-are-not-voodoo-if-they-make-it-to-60-or-so-nhl-games/

  34. wheatnoil says:

    Is there any possibility that a team might be interested in Nikitin at $2.5M for one year? He’s a player that had a promising start to his career. In Vollman’s Hockey Abstract a couple years ago, he was mentioned as part of one of the league’s better shut-down defensive pair with Tyutin. Now, I’m not expecting Nikitin to bounce back to that level and it’s likely that Tyutin was carrying Nikitin through that, but Nikitin didn’t do too badly until Columbus changed their coach. At that point, Nikitin’s role quickly changed and he was often given lesser partners to play with. Then came the disaster that was last year, but his numbers still aren’t as terrible as the gaffes he displayed would make you suspect.

    I don’t think it’s completely out of the question that a team would send over a late round draft pick to take a chance on Nikitin at $2.5M for one year. The Oilers would pay marginally more this year compared to buying him out, but then would have him off the books next year.

    I think the most likely scenario is that Nikitin is brought back and the Oilers hope he does a bit better. However, if they are going to buy him out, it makes no sense to do it early in the buy-out window. Chia should be searching high and low for any 50% salary retained deal before submitting the buy-out paper-work at the last possible second.

    (edited for clarity… I hope I made it better)

  35. v4ance says:

    One option that hasn’t been brought up much is why not just demote Nikitin to the minors if we can’t trade him and we don’t want to carry his cap hit for two years in a buyout? That is, assuming one of our young D prospects (or more) outplay him in training camp.

    It’ll be a one year charge of $950k til his contract runs out and it’ll be less than a buyout both in term and dollars.

  36. G Money says:

    gd: Ps: it is also why I was happy to see them retain Dellow. It shows an openness to keep smart people, even if they were hired by the scapegoated former coach.

    Yes, I was very happy to see that.

    Also happy to see that he’s been reassigned into management support rather than coaching support.

    Analytics *can* help with coaching in some circumstances, but in general they are a diagnostic tool or a projection tool, NOT a coaching tool. They’ve found the right place for him … smart!

  37. kinger_OIL says:

    You know what LT – sometimes I give you a hard time, but if they can do what you propose, and keep Yak, Marincin and the 16th: that’s forward progress. Not playoff, but no longer huge gaping holes (or just hope that everyone outperforms), and the players who are exposed next year, are exposed in the context of at least a balanced (but still sub playoff team). I’d love for both Nurse and Drai to marinate in the AHL for the year, but even if one of them does, or both for big chuncks of the year: that’s progress. Don’t mortgage the future…

  38. G Money says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    The final installment in the investigation of early stage goalies (co-authored w WheatNOil).

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/goalies-are-not-voodoo-if-they-make-it-to-60-or-so-nhl-games/

    kinger_OIL,

    Kinger, please note that I consider this latest NerdAlert to be the definitive work on the topic, and I will brook no disagreement with it! NONE!

    ( 🙂 Kidding of course, sharpen your pencils and have at ‘er)

  39. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money,

    Probably fair comment. That said, there is in almost every organization and every industry some turnover (even without a purge as a result of a management change). Are we seeing something larger than the usual amount of turnover? Are we witnessing it at an unusual time?

    Without the answer to both of these questions I don’t think we can ascribe this to Chia as a well-considered pruning of ineffective staff or reflexive house-cleaning. It could simply be the usual shuffle that accompanies the completion of every team’s draft cycle.

  40. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    You know what LT – sometimes I give you a hard time, but if they can do what you propose, and keep Yak, Marincin and the 16th: that’s forward progress.Not playoff, but no longer huge gaping holes (or just hope that everyone outperforms), and the players who are exposed next year, are exposed in the context of at least a balanced (but still sub playoff team).I’d love for both Nurse and Drai to marinate in the AHL for the year, but even if one of them does, or both for big chuncks of the year: that’s progress.Don’t mortgage the future…

    Yes. Exactly. Keep your powder dry. Maybe I’ll grow to love Nikitin! 🙂

  41. G Money says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    C’mon man, it’s the Oilers! I bet the contracts even promise employment for life! (unless you’re the coach, of course, then stay away from Skype)

  42. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money,

    😉

  43. Gerta Rauss says:

    Psyche posted this in yesterday’s thread, I found this comment interesting:

    Ference, a veteran of 16 years in the NHL and a Stanley Cup winner with the Bruins in 2011, says he will invite McDavid to move in with him and his family.

    “I will offer him a place to live if he needs a spot,” Ference says. “I have a stable home and it will offer him a pretty normal atmosphere. As far as hockey goes, there is not a lot I could teach him. But I can help him with real-life stuff. That is where I can see myself connecting with him, as a guy who has been there and done that.”

    I may be reading between the lines(and would love to be proven wrong) but I think we should be pencilling in Ference to our line ups.I think he’ll be at training camp, and I think he’ll be wearing the C

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mcdavid-faces-enormous-pressure-in-edmonton-where-he-is-a-symbol-of-hope/article25038619/

  44. G Money says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Yes, I fear that will happen. A defense with Ference playing more than a 7D/6D role is a lottery defense.

    I’m hoping Chia is smart enough to work around it.

    That article is excellent, but the Ference quote gave me the heebie-jeebies.

  45. Ray says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Psyche posted this in yesterday’s thread, I found this comment interesting:

    Ference, a veteran of 16 years in the NHL and a Stanley Cup winner with the Bruins in 2011, says he will invite McDavid to move in with him and his family.


    “I will offer him a place to live if he needs a spot,” Ference says. “I have a stable home and it will offer him a pretty normal atmosphere. As far as hockey goes, there is not a lot I could teach him. But I can help him with real-life stuff. That is where I can see myself connecting with him, as a guy who has been there and done that.”

    I may be reading between the lines(and would love to be proven wrong) but I think we should be pencilling in Ference to our line ups.I think he’ll be at training camp, and I think he’ll be wearing the C

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mcdavid-faces-enormous-pressure-in-edmonton-where-he-is-a-symbol-of-hope/article25038619/

    Gulp. Well then.

  46. sliderule says:

    G Money,

    You boys are doing nice work but I think there has to be a factor for playing for a sound defensive team.

    Just watch players that have breakaways all that has to happen is you slap their legs and it reduces the chance of scoring.If you give players like Stamkos uncontested looks they will bury them.

    Players like Neuvirth and Enroth who have played for good teams and bad teams and are fairly consistent I trust the save percentage more than those who play for sound defensive teams

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    v4ance:
    One option that hasn’t been brought up much is why not just demote Nikitin to the minors if we can’t trade him and we don’t want to carry his cap hit for two years in a buyout?That is, assuming one of our young D prospects (or more) outplay him in training camp.

    It’ll be a one year charge of $950k til his contract runs out and it’ll be less than a buyout both in term and dollars.

    You’ve got that backwards – the OIlers still have to pay him the full $4.5M in real dollars, but yes, they can save $925k against the cap if they send him to the minors, and the remaining $3.575M counts against the cap for the season.

    Sending him to the minors does offer an option in the fall, in that Niki is essentially waiver exempt…nobody is going to touch that contract and they can move him to the AHL at their discretion.

  48. dustrock says:

    Still interesting to me that they’re dropping the scouts a week before the draft.

    Might have their lists but figured they’d keep them until after this draft.

  49. G Money says:

    sliderule,

    That’s why we included the adjusted sv%.

    War-on-ice adjusts the sv% for goalies by looking at how many and how dangerous the shots they face are, and then modifying that to be what the sv% would be if that goalie was facing an average set of shots.

    That’s why the results get tighter with the adjusted sv% – because you’re taking away much of the variance that occurs as a result of some goalies playing behind tire fires and some who play for teams that do not feature Ference, Schultz, and Nikitin.

  50. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Still interesting to me that they’re dropping the scouts a week before the draft.

    Might have their lists but figured they’d keep them until after this draft.

    I’m trying to confirm, seems out of order but then again the lists are set.

  51. Bad Seed says:

    dustrock,

    They probably all had Strome as consensus #1 and Pete just had to draw the line. Out you go, fuckheads!

  52. LMHF#1 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Psyche posted this in yesterday’s thread, I found this comment interesting:

    Ference, a veteran of 16 years in the NHL and a Stanley Cup winner with the Bruins in 2011, says he will invite McDavid to move in with him and his family.


    “I will offer him a place to live if he needs a spot,” Ference says. “I have a stable home and it will offer him a pretty normal atmosphere. As far as hockey goes, there is not a lot I could teach him. But I can help him with real-life stuff. That is where I can see myself connecting with him, as a guy who has been there and done that.”

    I may be reading between the lines(and would love to be proven wrong) but I think we should be pencilling in Ference to our line ups.I think he’ll be at training camp, and I think he’ll be wearing the C

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mcdavid-faces-enormous-pressure-in-edmonton-where-he-is-a-symbol-of-hope/article25038619/

    Sure hope he declines, for a ton of reasons.

  53. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    G Money:
    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    Perhaps.

    This is a bit of the “Petry failure model” though.Focusing on the mistakes certainly can’t be ignored, but it has the effect of making the plays that are done well and without fanfare disappear into the background.

    The Petry-haters out there focused on his occasional giveaways and non-hits … and forgot about all the plays he made with no fanfare to stop the other team from getting chances, or the many times he carried the puck without giving the puck away, or the hits he did throw (he was second on the D in that category).

    There’s an element of that going on with Nikitin and especially Schultz.A ridiculous amount of the teams offense goes through Schultz, but people can’t (or refuse to) see it because of the defensive lapses.I think this is also the case with Nikitin but less so (by which I mean, he makes just as many mistakes as Schultz, but doesn’t drive offense the same way – but still gets no credit for those things he does do well on occasion).

    I’m also less concerned with “body language” after a mistake than I am with the repeat of mistakes.I have more time for repeated mistakes from someone with 200 games (JS) or 248 games (NN) in the NHL than I do with someone who has 900+ games.

    I get what you’re saying but I never saw Petry bad, I saw him good. Nobody cared more, he took abuse from management and was given little to no help, didn’t complain and kept giving heroic effort, and most importantly delivering measurable results. A beauty.

    That cannot be said for many Oiler players. Gagner for me is the watershed. A nice man and very skilled, but he kept repeating mistakes and looking skyward, over and over and over and over. And they gave him chance after contract after chance after contract. Sound familiar to anyone still on the team?

    Youth and inexperience is and looks different than obstinance and passive.

  54. Bad Seed says:

    LMHF#1,

    Reading that article, Ference sure comes off to me like a bootlick. Be kind of funny if Pete traded him at the draft or bought him out.

  55. G Money says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: I get what you’re saying but I never saw Petry bad, I saw him good.

    Oh for sure, I wasn’t by any means suggesting you had.

    Just raising a cautionary note about the whole “seeing him bad” situation. It’s a critical part of analyzing a player (or the game), but that’s also where the fancystats help – they add an objective layer to the analysis that acts as a reminder that our eyes can lead us down a garden path sometimes.

    I do think that is what is happening somewhat with both Schultz and Nikitin. Their defensive faults are so glaring, and so aggravating, that it clouds over the ability to see the things that they do well.

  56. G Money says:

    LMHF#1: Sure hope he declines, for a ton of reasons.

    I don’t think Ferenge would be a bad role model off the ice – he seems like a really decent guy, high community involvement, fitness fanatic, none of those are bad influences for a young player!

    It’s the on-ice Ference that’s the problem…

  57. v4ance says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Crap. Thanks Gerta. I had that backwards.

    On the other hand, knowing that we have to pay a minimum cap hit of $3.5 million to Nikitin in the AHL or $4.5M in the NHL, any trade that requires us to retain less than $3.5 million is a essentially a gain in cap room.

    Another option is that if Nikitin comes to camp out of shape again or is outplayed by the youngsters, send him to AHL and give him the option to make a KHL deal. By loaning his contract to the KHL team, we lose the cap hit entirely.

  58. Dashingsilverfox says:

    verdad2.0:
    Again, the real issue is whether Hall is traded before Friday forOEL.

    That is the real transformation move that would make the OIlers instantly credible for the playoffs and beyond.

    Beyond that all picks the Oilers hold should be first deployed for accumulating functional defensemen.

    Nikitin, Schultz and Ference should never again play for the Oilers.

    Straight forward really.

    If Arizona doesn’t play, then offer sheet at the extreme end for Hamilton and move on.

    But at all costs do not trade for a goalie.
    No one can make a rational case that Talbot is any better than the available goalie UFAs.

    eg , Ramo no worse than Talbot.

    This is the correct answer.

    Taylor Hall + Maricnin + the 16th pick for OEL and the 30th pick.

    The Oilers walk away from the draft with Connor McDavid and OEL, a legit top pairing D and whoever they take at #30.

    The Coyotes walk away with a marketable player, Noah Hanifin and a good defensive prospect.
    5 years on, Hall still gives up more than he creates but the Coyotes can live with that if he can sell tickets.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: This is the correct answer.

    Taylor Hall + Maricnin + the 16th pick for OEL and the 30th pick.

    The Oilers walk away from the draft with Connor McDavid and OEL, a legit top pairing D and whoever they take at #30.

    The Coyotes walk away with a marketable player, Noah Hanifin and a good defensive prospect.
    5 years on, Hall still gives up more than he creates but the Coyotes can live with that if he can sell tickets.

    It’s easy to spot Canucks fans, they keep trying to trade Taylor Hall!

  60. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: It’s easy to spot Canucks fans, they keep trying to trade Taylor Hall!

    Oiler fans should jump on the bandwagon.

    It’s the smart thing to do.

    OEL would have a much bigger impact on the Oilers future than any LW will.

  61. Doug McLachlan says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Not sure Hall would sell any more tickets in Quebec than OEL, but to each their own.

  62. sliderule says:

    dustrock,

    Green has had the year to decide the scouts who will make the cut.

    Chia would not want the voices in the room if they don’t trust them.

    Toronto took a similar approach .

  63. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Lowetide: I’m trying to confirm, seems out of order but then again the lists are set.

    Exactly. The lists are set and now there’s no excuse to throw the BCJHL scout a bone in the 4th round to thank him for his work.

    I’m by no means qualified to be a director of scouting, but I personally would do away with the concept.of area scouts except for the most basic, rudimentary work like logistics on the ground for helping the real scouts see as many games as possible and interview as many players and coaches as possible.. I’d hire really good hockey minds who travel cross country independently and come up with their own lists of good players. I’d then sit them down in a room every couple of months to compare notes. Where there’s overlap I’m happy. Where there’s dissent I send people back for more looks.

    And no nonsense about how we bummed out the NCAA guy because we didn’t draft anyone from his area this year.

    I’d also have a D specialist scout. I’d do everything I can to hire whoever it is in Anaheim that finds the Lindholms and Vatanens and Schultzes and Fowlers . Probably worth having a G specialist as well. These in addition to the generalists. Yes, it means more travel for the scouts but the new arena should pay for a nice bump in salary to.compensate for the hardship.

  64. verdad2.0 says:

    Kermodoil,

    Remember draft picks are mostly worthless.
    MacDavid notwithistanding.
    How much rebuild can you stand?

  65. verdad2.0 says:

    Henry,

    Strome is the obvious garbage of this draft.
    Ignore.
    Watch him all like a stone.
    Anyone who watched Erie in its playoff run would know this.

  66. G Money says:

    I would trade Hall+16 for OEL+30 – and I’m the farthest thing from a Nuckleheads fan!

    I’m not sure why Arz would, though. OEL makes sense for the Oilers cluster, because you need your D to be ahead of your forward cluster.

    But for the same reason, Hall doesn’t make sense for an Arz cluster that would then be built around Hall up front and Hanifin + 16 on the D. They’ve replicated the same “F ahead of D” chronology problem the Oilers have right now.

    Plus still no elite C, the key to building a forward cluster, which is why the verbiage out of Arz has them taking Strome.

    I’d think that Draisaitl + Marincin for #4 makes more sense. They get their big C, plus a decent depth defender. The Oilers still have their chronology problem for the Hall cluster, but with Klefbom+Nurse already in the system, adding Hanifin solves the D problem for the McDavid cluster.

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Not sure Hall would sell any more tickets in Quebec than OEL, but to each their own.

    There is a zero percent chance the Coyotes end up in Quebec.

    The most likely scenario would be Las Vegas or Portland.

    But, in any event, Bettman remains committed to Arizona and they have to put a product on the ice next season.

    They are currently $19 million below the cap FLOOR and need to get on with building a team.

  68. verdad2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    Get serious Lowetide
    OEL should be the real objective of the OIlers efforts this off-season.
    Its a no brainer to draft OEL and keep RNH.
    But the Oilers need to come to terms that Hall and Eberle are the assets to dump to actually get OEL.
    Beyond that offer the moon for Hamiltion.
    And we are fixed.
    Hall and more prospects is another decade of agony.

  69. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money:
    I would trade Hall+16 for OEL+30 – and I’m the farthest thing from a Nuckleheads fan!

    I’m not sure why Arz would, though.OEL makes sense for the Oilers cluster, because you need your D to be ahead of your forward cluster.

    But for the same reason, Hall doesn’t make sense for an Arz cluster that would then be built around Hall up front and Hanifin + 16 on the D.They’ve replicated the same “F ahead of D” chronology problem the Oilers have right now.

    Plus still no elite C, the key to building a forward cluster, which is why the verbiage out of Arz has them taking Strome.

    I’d think that Draisaitl + Marincin for #4 makes more sense.They get their big C, plus a decent depth defender.The Oilers still have their chronology problem for the Hall cluster, but with Klefbom+Nurse already in the system, adding Hanifin solves the D problem for the McDavid cluster.

    Draisaltl is NOT a #1C.

    He’s likely, at best, Jordan Staal.

  70. verdad2.0 says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    totally agree
    this is the strategic coup for Chiarelli

  71. verdad2.0 says:

    G Money,

    Chiarelli must test how stuped Maloney is
    Hall is the currency to that with

  72. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    verdad2.0:
    Henry,

    Strome is the obvious garbage of this draft.
    Ignore.
    Watch him all like a stone.
    Anyone who watched Erie in its playoff run would know this.

    And then there’s the obvious garbage. Ignore indeed.

  73. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Draisaltl is NOT a #1C.

    He’s likely, at best, Jordan Staal.

    I liked Bennett, too, but a bit too early to be making this call. Besides, I don’t see Draisaitl and Staal being comparable at all. Very different styles. Draisaitl is way more pass first. Staal scored, what, Using think 29 early on? I see Draisaitl as a poor man’s Kopitar. Think he has the skills to be a good 2C and possibly become a decent 1C. But this will take some time.

  74. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    G Money: I do think that is what is happening somewhat with both Schultz and Nikitin. Their defensive faults are so glaring, and so aggravating, that it clouds over the ability to see the things that they do well.

    My position is glaring repetitive mistakes aren’t covered by ability as a D. Keith is the model, not flashy but gives up nothing and gets in position to help offensively. He is affordable.

    The idea of a third pairing EV, PP specialist is a tough fit in a capped league. Offense costs, so you take one of your worst overall D and put them in a position to be expensive.

    The top 4 D need to be PP because they will have higher salaries, 3-6 need to be on PP.

  75. G Money says:

    Is it possible to sprain your eyes rolling them?

    I think it just happened to me.

    D+V are a dangerous combo.

  76. G Money says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    Hmmm, not clear what you’re saying. What do you mean by “Keith is affordable”?

  77. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Draisaitl scored about as much in draft-1 as Staal did in his draft year.

    I like Bennett as a player, but he plays Hall’s cannonball style with RNH’s physique.

  78. Doug McLachlan says:

    Looking at cap tight teams to see what might shake loose, I’m curious what the thoughts are with Vancouver?

    Some $65.7+ million committed to only 10 forwards and 5 d-men.

    As with the Rangers and Talbot, the Lack/Markstrom debate seems to be burying the lead as to the real issue from Vancouver’s perspective being how to create some cap room.

  79. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money:
    Is it possible to sprain your eyes rolling them?

    I think it just happened to me.

    Straining your eye muscles is a painful thing. Muscles are strained. Ligaments sprained.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    So what team wants to hire our freshly available scouts to find out our draft board?

  81. G Money says:

    verdad2.0:
    G Money,

    Chiarelli must test how stuped Maloney is
    Hall is the currency to that with

    Humour me for a moment and assume that Maloney is not stupid, and is therefore not trading OEL (as he’s stated many times).

    Assume also that Sweeney is not stupid and that the Bruins and Hamilton come to terms on a reasonable contract before an OS is a possibility.

    What’s your “obvious” play?

  82. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Draisaitl scored about as much in draft-1 as Staal did in his draft year.

    I like Bennett as a player, but he plays Hall’s cannonball style with RNH’s physique.

    Hmm, I’m going with my sprained eye test on this one, so I didn’t go look at their stats. My observation is LD passes more and is a better passer than goal scorer. Staal scores a lot more relative to his assists. That’s my point. Their styles aren’t similar at all to me.

  83. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money: Humour me for a moment and assume that Maloney is not stupid, and is therefore not trading OEL (as he’s stated many times).

    Assume also that Sweeney is not stupid and that the Bruins and Hamilton come to terms on a reasonable contract before an OS is a possibility.

    What’s your “obvious” play?

    Agree that Arizona is not dealing OEL.

    Hamilton’s agent can’t be unaware that an OS is a possibility (and will be able to start seeing how real a possibility as early as Thursday the 25th). I still think Buffalo will try and make an OS splash or two. Hamilton, as an in-division, target is almost too tempting to pass up.

  84. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: I liked Bennett, too, but a bit too early to be making this call. Besides, I don’t see Draisaitl and Staal being comparable at all. Very different styles. Draisaitl is way more pass first. Staal scored, what, Using think 29 early on?I see Draisaitl as a poor man’s Kopitar. Think he has the skills to be a good 2C and possibly become a decent 1C. But this will take some time.

    #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

  85. North of the Wall says:

    Lowetide,

    Hey Lowetide, I believe one of your guest during the mock draft mentioned that Zacha was overrated or didn’t believe that he should be picked that high. Now, I’ve never actually seen him play before but is this a player to be worried about in such a deep draft? Also, whats this rumour I’ve been hearing that your show is going to start playing Polka music?

  86. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

    Oh good grief. Want to have a boo at Joe Thornton as a rookie? Really DSF.

  87. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

    Respectfully, this doesn’t prove my point wrong. I said stylistically he is more a pass first player, like a (key phrase here) poor man’s Kopitar. I never said he would come close to scoring as much as Kopi. There’s no shame in that, Kopitar is a top 6 or 7 C in the league. Not expecting that from Leon.

    Does he have the skill set to become a good 2C? Absolutely. And this year he had doesn’t prove otherwise. He may even become a #1C down the line for another team.

    All this season proved was he wasn’t ready for the NHL. A blind monkey could have told you that, but MacT was even dumber on that one.

    As for throwing out comparisons of rookie years, for every Kopitar there is a Thornton. So some centres take their time to find their groove. Not all development paths are the same and follow each other.

  88. Traktor says:

    Dashingsilverfox: #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

    Kopitar was .42 ppg in the SEL one year post draft. 6th in team scoring. Dragan Umicevic was 3rd.

    You would’ve written him off.

  89. Loyal2theoil says:

    MacGregor fired as well as two ameteur scouts and one pro scout

  90. wheatnoil says:

    Dashingsilverfox: #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

    As Traktor pointed out, that was Draft+2. Speaking of which, Henrik Sedin scored 29 points in his rookie (Draft + 2) season.

    There’s more than one path forward in the NHL. Draisaitl may or may not be a 1C calibre hockey player in the NHL. I would hesitate to say the “train has already sailed”.

  91. wheatnoil says:

    EDM fired head amateur scout Stu MacGregor tonight as well as two other amateur scouts and one pro scout.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 21, 2015

    EDM changes involve both head amateur scout Stu MacGregor and head pro scout Morey Gare. Both had been with organization for over a decade.— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) June 21, 2015

    Holy shit!

  92. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Shall I remind everyone Kopitar is a UFA after next year…..and I don’t feel even one once of pity for LA. Enjoy paying Brown and Richards 11M/yr until they’re 40.

    Leon at 0.8 of Thornton is a wonderful player, I think he settles in just fine after a portion of the 15/16 season in Cali. If I have a concern with Leon, it’s who is going to be his sidekick.

    The elite passers all needed the elite shooter to mesh with, Francis and Oates come to mind. Lordy was Oates/Hull a deadly combo.
    What type of player does Leon need?

  93. square_wheels says:

    wheatnoil,

    Wow, sail on Magnificent Bastard.

  94. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    This always makes me wonder. Would you sell your cap hell soul for two Cups? I would. LA did what it had to.

  95. wheatnoil says:

    I wonder who the two other amateur scouts are? That seems very specific. I wonder if one scouts the BCJHL.

  96. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Oh good grief. Want to have a boo at Joe Thornton as a rookie? Really DSF.

    Thornton scored 16G and 41P in his second season.

    Over/under?

  97. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    wheatnoil:
    Holy shit!

    Gretzky coming from Beantown after the draft?
    In the end, I’m not surprised. MBS looked like a hero early, then got dragged through the mud late; I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Pitlick, Musil cost him whether it’s right to blame him or not, and the story about goalies last year was disturbing.

    Sail on Stu.

    LT must be having some mixed feelings as his anointing of Stu as MBS certainly played a role in the discourse surrounding this man and how he should be viewed.

  98. admiralmark says:

    Dashingsilverfox: #1Cs emerge early and often.

    Kopitar scored 61 points in his rookie season.

    That train has already sailed.

    And here is why DSF is so enjoyed in these parts. Geez

  99. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    They signed Brown after, and Both for far too long, but yes if I had 2 Cups I’d shrug my shoulders and figure it out. Neither player earned those deals though, and neither put up enough offence or had enough long term projection to maintain the value. The Richards deal is really going to screw them, not sure how Lombardi is gonna weasel out.

    Massive boat anchors seem to be the post cup norm, wonder if Chia learned his lesson or can see the risk of not having the pipeline to roll players out and bring entry levels in ?

  100. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:

    Sail on Stu.

    LT must be having some mixed feelings as his anointing of Stu as MBS certainly played a role in the discourse surrounding this man and how he should be viewed.

    That`s true. I absolutely regret any discomfort I may have caused and assure you it was not in any way malicious.

  101. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    Yes. Oilers (Horcoff, Pisani, Staios, etc.)handed out bloated contracts post 2006 as well.

  102. Racki says:

    wheatnoil:
    Holy shit!

    I hate to tap dance on someone’s grave, but this was one of the changes I was hoping Chia would do sooner than later. I didn’t expect Stu would be gone this quick, or Gare, but I mean.. come on… this team has had some serious problems with “home grown” talent here, even under Stu. I think there’s more to the problem than just him (poor/rushed development being one other big thing), but it doesn’t seem like they were hitting the mark enough. As for the pro side of things.. can we say our pro scouts are the worst in the NHL? I’d say that pretty confidently. Hopefully Chia’s got some quality people lined up for this.

    I don’t trust any of the scouts on this team right now. It’s one reason I’m happy to see the Oilers shop 16, 33, 57, etc.

  103. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Lowetide: That`s true. I absolutely regret any discomfort I may have caused and assure you it was not in any way malicious.

    Oh, we all know you meant it out of respect, not malice. It’s actually fascinating case study in how a name given out of praise and reverence can be twisted to be used in irony down the line.

    All I will say is, I could feel your mixed emotions even through the Al Gore and wanted to say, “It’s not your fault.” You didn’t have anything to do with his dismissal today.

  104. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Gretzky coming from Beantown after the draft?
    In the end, I’m not surprised. MBS looked like a hero early, then got dragged through the mud late; I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Pitlick, Musil cost him whether it’s right to blame him or not, and the story about goalies last year was disturbing.

    Sail on Stu.

    LT must be having some mixed feelings as his anointing of Stu as MBS certainly played a role in the discourse surrounding this man and how he should be viewed.

    Yeah, after my initial surprise, it actually made a lot of sense. This was telegraphed months ago even before Chia came into office with Green’s promotion.

    It’s tough to know who’s decision is what when you look back at the draft. We know McGregor pushed for Bouchard and that leak didn’t make him look good. Then there have been leaks of Tambo over-ruling the scouts and wanting a D, leading to the Musil pick. There’s the Coughlin pick which made no sense, but then there’s the Chase pick. If you’re not in the room, it’s hard to know who’s fighting for what and how the process unfolded.

    I guess ultimately he’s responsible and given only a select few scouts were fired, I guess this is what Nicholson’s audit revealed.

    More intrigue for draft day.

  105. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    What is there to prevent a team from talking to these guys and finding out the Oilers’ entire draft board?

    A bitter scout just a week before the draft could do a lot of damage. This maybe too GoT of me but I would have gathered them all in a room the afternoon of the draft to “discuss their strategy” before locking them all in for 24 hours. With food and water and a piss cup, of course.

  106. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    What is there to prevent a team from talking to these guys and finding out the Oilers’ entire draft board?

    A bitter scout just a week before the draft could do a lot of damage. This maybe too GoT of me but I would have gathered them all in a room the afternoon of the draft to “discuss their strategy” before locking them all in for 24 hours. With food and water and a piss cup, of course.

    These guys were just fired from one of the worst drafting organizations in the league.

    Why would anyone care what they think?

  107. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Oh, we all know you meant it out of respect, not malice. It’s actuallyfascinating case study in how a name given out of praise and reverence can be twisted to be used in irony down the line.

    All I will say is, I could feel your mixed emotions even through the Al Gore and wanted to say, “It’s not your fault.” You didn’t have anything to do with his dismissal today.

    Yes, well put. I think the long time without success basically sealed everyone`s fate. It will be VERY interesting to see how the MacGregor prospects do in the next several years. Won`t matter to him of course, but my damn series (KP v. MacGregor) got blown up real good!

  108. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    What is there to prevent a team from talking to these guys and finding out the Oilers’ entire draft board?

    A bitter scout just a week before the draft could do a lot of damage. This maybe too GoT of me but I would have gathered them all in a room the afternoon of the draft to “discuss their strategy” before locking them all in for 24 hours. With food and water and a piss cup, of course.

    Do scouts have non-disclosure agreements in place for this kind of circumstance?

  109. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: These guys were just fired from one of the worst drafting organizations in the league.

    Why would anyone care what they think?

    They wouldn’t care what they think. They would care what they know. Let’s take an extreme example. The scouts want McDavid, but Chia actually wants Eichel more. They have an argument, Chia decides he can’t work with scouts who have such different opinions. He fires them. The scouts turn around and tell Buffalo the Oilers prefer Eichel.

    That changes EVERYTHING.

    Imagine Chia calls up Buffalo willing to listen to a trade down deal. All his leverage is gone.

    Now, this is just an example, but having the Oilers draft board would mean teams know who they have ranked next at 16, 33 etc.

    It’s not about what the “bad” scouts think. It’s about what they know.

  110. leadfarmer says:

    Gare must have had incriminating pictures of someone that he lasted this long, cause even though amateur scouting has been overall meh, professional scouting has been awful, and he’s had that position for like 6 years. How has it taken this long to say oh yeah all the advice you’ve given us has been crap.

  111. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    speeds: Do scouts have non-disclosure agreements in place for this kind of circumstance?

    I don’t know. In other sensitive jobs if you resign you often have to sign a NDA. But if you’re fired, you could simply refuse to sign? Presumably Chia has thought about this before doing so, so one would hope something is in place. But that doesn’t physically prevent them from secretly divulging anyway. So long as the Oilers don’t find out, how would they ever know?

  112. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: They wouldn’t care what they think. They would care what they know. Let’s take an extreme example. The scouts want McDavid, but Chia actually wants Eichel more. They have an argument, Chia decides he can’t work with scouts who have such different opinions. He fires them. The scouts turn around and tell Buffalo the Oilers prefer Eichel.

    That changes EVERYTHING.

    Imagine Chia calls up Buffalo willing to listen to a trade down deal. All his leverage is gone.

    Now, this is just an example, but having the Oilers draft board would mean teams know who they have ranked next at 16, 33 etc.

    It’s not about what the “bad” scouts think. It’s about what they know.

    Scouting’s a small world. I’d imagine such a thing would get back to the Oilers some how. If I understand how these NHL contracts work (and I probably don’t) it seems when people are fired they are still under contract with the organization and still get paid until the terms expire. That’s why the Oilers had to get permission to speak to Chiarelli and McLellan. So, if a scout blabs to another team and that gets back to the organization, that scout may be in breach of contract, even though they were fired.

    Plus, it probably would impact the scout’s professional reputation if they want to get hired again.

    That said, a frustrated, fired scout and a bottle of whiskey can lead to all sorts of poor decisions.

  113. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: They wouldn’t care what they think. They would care what they know. Let’s take an extreme example. The scouts want McDavid, but Chia actually wants Eichel more. They have an argument, Chia decides he can’t work with scouts who have such different opinions. He fires them. The scouts turn around and tell Buffalo the Oilers prefer Eichel.

    That changes EVERYTHING.

    Imagine Chia calls up Buffalo willing to listen to a trade down deal. All his leverage is gone.

    Now, this is just an example, but having the Oilers draft board would mean teams know who they have ranked next at 16, 33 etc.

    It’s not about what the “bad” scouts think. It’s about what they know.

    That’s a HUGE stretch.

    Teams are likely already locked into what they want to do at the draft and knowing the Oilers list is likely right up there with knowing what the weather might be like next week.

  114. commonfan14 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Imagine Chia calls up Buffalo willing to listen to a trade down deal. All his leverage is gone.

    Not all. He would still have the #1 pick, McDavid would still have way more value around the league than Eichel, and Buffalo would still know it.

  115. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    If you’re Winnipeg or Ottawa you wouldn’t be at all interested who the oil would pick at 16? I would think they would be just a little interested to know if the oil were going to draft a player they really liked so they could trade up to 15 and take that player.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Depends. Is keeping Nikitin forcing out Marincin? If it is, then no, it isn’t reasonable to argue that imo.

    If keeping Nikitin is forcing you to trade Marincin then you are doing it wrong.

    Marincin is your 3rd pairing guy maybe with Nikitin or pushing Nikitin to #7.

    I’m with GMoney that Ference needs to be moved. That there was interest at the deadline and didn’t act is only slightly less damaging to his reputation than the Petry handling.

  117. Racki says:

    I’d say when it comes down to it, I’d take MacGregor over Prendergast any day. But drafting here and development have been a major problem for this team. Stu seemed pretty Magnificent in the early goings too, and I also bought into the clever name for a while.

    Worse than Stu though, in my opinion, is how epically bad the pro scouting has been here. How this didn’t happen earlier is a testament to how abundantly inbred this organization is. Even if Chia sucks at trading, he still might be the best thing to happen to this team in a while. Well, actually McDavid is because, let’s face it, he was the trigger for all this stuff to happen. But I’m thankful Chia is cleaning up the mess that should have been done a while ago.

  118. commonfan14 says:

    Remember that time the Oilers found out that the Devils wanted Niinimäki?

    We sure screwed them over.

  119. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    commonfan14: Not all.He would still have the #1 pick, McDavid would still have way more value around the league than Eichel, and Buffalo would still know it.

    I said it isn’t the best example. You know the point I’m getting at. Use player A and player B instead of names.

  120. Dashingsilverfox says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    If you’re Winnipeg or Ottawa you wouldn’t be at all interested who the oil would pick at 16?I would think they would be just a little interested to know if the oil were going to draft a player they really liked so they could trade up to 15 and take that player.

    It’s more than likely the Oilers don’t know who they will pick at 16.

    This draft will be very volatlie.

  121. wheatnoil says:

    Racki: Even if Chia sucks at trading, he still might be the best thing to happen to this team in a while. Well, actually McDavid is because, let’s face it, he was the trigger for all this stuff to happen. But I’m thankful Chia is cleaning up the mess that should have been done a while ago.

    Clearly Chiarelli had a hand in this as the GM, but this may have been a Nicholson decision. This was forecast months ago with the promotion of Bob Green. There’s no way to know for sure, but this may have happened even with MacT as the GM.

  122. speeds says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Let’s say pick 15 were on the clock, and you were a team picking 17th. If you really liked a player, and knew EDM would pick that player at 16, you might well try to trade ahead of them, while if you didn’t have that knowledge you might be willing to take your chances that that player would still be around at 17.

  123. Lowetide says:

    commonfan14:
    Remember that time the Oilers found out that the Devils wanted Niinimäki?

    We sure screwed them over.

    That was the Hesketh back story too iirc.

  124. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    wheatnoil,

    Ah, but Chiarelli wasn’t technically fired. He was relieved of duties, but still with the Bruins. It’s why Boston has a case for compensation. They covered their tracks.

    Question is if the scouts are fired or relieved of their duties.

    I don’t know. It’s probably a stretch now since everything seems to get found out. But are you telling me back in the old days that Sam Pollock wouldn’t have a limo sent around to the Macgregor residence right now to pick Stu up for a late dinner?

  125. Schitzo says:

    speeds: Do scouts have non-disclosure agreements in place for this kind of circumstance?

    I would expect that they are still on the payroll, but have been told not to come in to work any more. If that’s the case, there is no discussion with other teams.

    Assuming that the scouts had fixed-term contracts, termination would likely require a pretty substantial breach by the employee – much easier to just pay them to go away and keep quiet.

  126. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Maybe I’ll grow to love Nikitin! 🙂

    Sure…when they trade him for a 1st rounder at the deadline and his double-agent skills put the team into the draft lottery!

  127. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Hah! Pollock would’ve done that even if MacGregor was still the head scout!

  128. Lowetide says:

    I`m not absolutely certain there would be tremendous damage even if MacGregor was hired by (say) Calgary. They would know EDM`s list, but would that change their list? They could (as speeds suggests) trade up past EDM but the Oilers might trade past Calgary in a case of that kind as well. Interesting timing, I will say that.

  129. SpotTheLoon says:

    I would think that what they were told is that the club thanks them for their services and lets them know that their contracts will be allowed to expire at the end of June. That’s probably a more realistic way in which this was dealt with.

  130. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    commonfan14:
    Remember that time the Oilers found out that the Devils wanted Niinimäki?

    We sure screwed them over.

    And this is an irrelevant example. The Devils may have misdirected the Oilers.
    A bitter, fired former employee of the Oilers has incentive to screw them over. Unless you’re saying Chia Has had his own secret draft board all along that is different from what Stu knows, and then he fired Stu expecting him to go tell other teams what the Oilers are up to as a deliberate ploy to misdirect them.

    Well, then I love that we have a GM that smart.

  131. wheatnoil says:

    Maybe the Oilers are just planning on picking McDavid and then trading every one of their picks for players.

  132. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Oh, I know, I know. It’s very unlikely the Oilers haven’t covered their bases before canning these guys. Under prior management it’s not so certain they would have remembered to do that. I keep forgetting more competent, detail-oriented men are in charge now.

    And I was having fun dreaming up a “The Sting” type scenario.

  133. Snowman says:

    I’d have to think if they ever wanted to be a scout again spilling state secrets from their old bosses would not help them. Everyone gets fired in hockey at some point and I don’t think that would help with their job search for the next one.

  134. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    I`m not absolutely certain there would be tremendous damage even if MacGregor was hired by (say) Calgary. They would know EDM`s list, but would that change their list? They could (as speeds suggests) trade up past EDM but the Oilers might trade past Calgary in a case of that kind as well. Interesting timing, I will say that.

    Presumably MacGregor would be bound by a NDA in leaving the Oilers effective to the conclusion of the 2015 draft.

    So if Calgary hired him tomorrow with the intent of getting the Oilers’ draft list from him, and he were to provide some information on that list, the Flames could find themselves in some hot water, facing fines or worse.

    This isn’t like adding a cut player to the roster for 48 hours in order to pick his brain about the opposition’s playbook.

    But if Burke and Treliving really wanted to do that, it would imply some interest in what the Oilers have planned, some concern over Tod Button’s list, and likely be open to a complaint from the Oilers to the Board of Governors.

  135. Ryan says:

    You guys are killing me tonight. 🙂

    I can’t imagine a scenario in which the scouts haven’t signed an NDA.

    It’s also additionally possible that the ball’s been in motion for this since January when Green got promoted. SMB may not even know the final draft board.

  136. Racki says:

    Snowman:
    I’d have to think if they ever wanted to be a scout again spilling state secrets from their old bosses would not help them. Everyone gets fired in hockey at some point and I don’t think that would help with their job search for the next one.

    The St. Louis Cardinals might value that kind of quality in a scout! 😛

    But seriously, I do agree with you. And on top of that, no one wants to know who the Oilers are scouting because they suck at scouting… except in the case of pick swaps, which really aren’t likely on Chia’s to-do list at this draft.

  137. RexLibris says:

    So with MacGregor gone, as well as two other regional scouts, I’m going to be the first to suggest that Liam Coughlin and Keven Bouchard will not be offered NHL ELC’s next June.

    Going out on a limb, I know, but I’m feeling pretty…bold…tonight.

  138. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    RexLibris,

    Ryan,

    They wouldn’t have to hire Stu. Just saying…one angry/bitter scout who doesn’t care if he doesn’t work in hockey anymore, or has too much whisky, as Wheatnoil suggested, could do damage.I’ve seen traders violate NDAs verbally in the past. With no evidence of it available. Why? If the firm was interviewing them for a job, they’d just give up secrets. Or if they were fired and upset. It’s bad, but so long as that doesn’t get out, you can easily have such a conversation.

    Re: maybe since January and MBS doesn’t know the board, then Nicholson is the puppet master in the double cross scenario I laid out at the end.

    P.S. don’t spoil my conspiracy theory fun 😉

  139. Schitzo says:

    RexLibris: Presumably MacGregor would be bound by a NDA in leaving the Oilers effective to the conclusion of the 2015 draft.

    Or just throw money at the problem and keep them on the payroll until their contracts are up.

  140. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Racki: The St. Louis Cardinals might value that kind of quality in a scout!

    But seriously, I do agree with you. And on top of that, no one wants to know who the Oilers are scouting because they suck at scouting… except in the case of pick swaps, which really aren’t likely on Chia’s to-do list at this draft.

    Burke finds out Oilers covet Svechnikov. They have him ranked even with, say, Sprong. They take Svechnikov to kill two birds with one stone and also piss off Edmonton.

    I know, I know.

  141. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Schitzo: Or just throw money at the problem and keep them on the payroll until their contracts are up.

    That’s the most likely solution to this.

  142. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    So with MacGregor gone, as well as two other regional scouts, I’m going to be the first to suggest that Liam Coughlin and Keven Bouchard will not be offered NHL ELC’s next June.

    Going out on a limb, I know, but I’m feeling pretty…bold…tonight.

    As someone who believes MacGregor had some good drafts, 2014 remains a mystery.

  143. RexLibris says:

    When do they get around to auditing the pro scouts?

    I’ll give them the Hendricks addition. That was good.

    The Perron deal involved picks, and was driven by analytics.

    But I’m trying to remember another player-for-player deal the Oilers won since Andy Sutton.

    I’m sure they have, I just can’t think of one right now.

  144. commonfan14 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: And this is an irrelevant example. The Devils may have misdirected the Oilers.
    A bitter, fired former employee of the Oilers has incentive to screw them over. Unless you’re saying Chia Has had his own secret draft board all along that is different from what Stu knows, and then he fired Stu expecting him to go tell other teams what the Oilers are up to as a deliberate ploy to misdirect them.
    Well, then I love that we have a GM that smart.

    In all seriousness, I don’t think there’s any chance whatsoever that Chia fired them before the draft with them knowing his final list.

    What would be the point?

  145. Ryan says:

    Racki: The St. Louis Cardinals might value that kind of quality in a scout!

    But seriously, I do agree with you. And on top of that, no one wants to know who the Oilers are scouting because they suck at scouting… except in the case of pick swaps, which really aren’t likely on Chia’s to-do list at this draft.

    Well, I could see other teams wanting to know who SMB likes outside of the first round.

    Anyone whom he like outside of the second round, you can safely cross off your list. For the second round, you know those names will be meh at best.

    If he likes anyone at all from the BCHL, you cross their name off your list with a sharpie.

    That has some value. 🙂

  146. LadiesloveSmid says:

    man DSF, so hard to get engaged in the conversations when there’s a huge turd dropped in the middle of the thread. Get a rise out of people, but don’t make me instantly lose interest in hockey talk. If I wanted to squirm in my seat and doubt education systems I’d go to hfboards. Grrr

  147. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    RexLibris,
    They fired Morey Gare, too. Head Pro Scout.

  148. rickithebear says:

    Names I have seen thrown out there for trade options.

    B. Campbell 3rd comp +7.9 CD/60 7.4M
    Hedman 1st/2nd comp +7.7 CD/60 4.0M
    OEL 1st comp +7.5 CD/60 5.5M
    D. Hamilton 1st comp +6.2 CD/60 RFA
    Marincin 1st comp 5.7 CD/60 RFA .96M QO
    Chara 1st comp +4.6 CD/60 6.92M
    Klefbom 2nd comp +4.5 CD/60 1.25M
    Wisniewski 2nd comp +4.2 CD/60 5.5M
    Couburn 1st comp +3.5 CD/60 4.5M
    Carle 1st comp +3.4 Cd/60 5.5M
    Fayne 1st comp +3.1 CD/60 3.625M
    Letang 2nd comp +2.6 CD/60 last 2 yr +10.6 3-7yr 7.4M
    D. Boyle 2nd comp +2.5 CD/60 4.5M
    Nikitin 1st comp +0.6 CD/60 4.5M
    Alzner 1st comp +0.3 Cd/60 2.8M
    Nurse 3rd/4thcomp ??? (2gm +9.0 CD/60) 1.72M
    Bouwmeester 1st/2nd comp -0.5 CD/60 5.4M
    L. Schenn 3rd comp -0.8 CD/60 3.5M 3rd
    J. Schultz 3rd comp -3.3 CD/60 3.31M ARB
    J. Cowen 1st comp -3.9 CD/60 3.1M
    M. Staal 2nd comp -4.1 CD/60 5.7M
    Phanuef top 3 1st comp -7.8 CD/60 3yr +2.2 CD/60 2nd comp OEL ‘s 1st comp 22 EVP /season pace
    Gunnarson 2nd comp -9.2 Cd/60 2.95M

  149. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    commonfan14: In all seriousness, I don’t think there’s any chance whatsoever that Chia fired them before the draft with them knowing his final list.

    What would be the point?

    You’re right and that’s why the timing is so very interesting, isn’t it?

  150. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: As someone who believes MacGregor had some good drafts, 2014 remains a mystery.

    I wonder if his “I had to convince Craig that we needed to take some goalies” was his Waterloo?

    As it stands right now, if you could trade Bouchard and Coughlin for Mangiapane and Tkachev, why wouldn’t you?

  151. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: 2014 remains a mystery.

    About the time Green started to have more amateur influence!

  152. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos":
    RexLibris,
    They fired Morey Gare, too. Head Pro Scout.

    Well I’ll be.

    So Semenko is still around and Please Dear Lord in Hockey Heaven don’t let Scott Howson do the pro scouting.

    I’ll say this, they’re getting after it this summer.

  153. Oddspell says:

    commonfan14: In all seriousness, I don’t think there’s any chance whatsoever that Chia fired them before the draft with them knowing his final list.

    What would be the point?

    I think I remember seeing on Oil Change that the list isn’t actually finalized until the day before the draft. They do continuous meetings up until the day.

  154. Racki says:

    Ryan: Well, I could see other teams wanting to know who SMB likes outside of the first round.

    Anyone whom he like outside of the second round, you can safely cross off your list.For the second round, you know those names will be meh at best.

    If he likes anyone at all from the BCHL, you cross their name off your list with a sharpie.

    That has some value.

    Haha, I was kind of thinking the same thing. And funny re: the BCHL 😛

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Burke finds out Oilers covet Svechnikov. They have him ranked even with, say, Sprong. They take Svechnikov to kill two birds with one stone and also piss off Edmonton.

    I know, I know.

    I honestly do get your concern, but I think some of what others have said is kinda correct. A good organization probably doesn’t want to hire a guy that leaks info, they like all have NDAs (although granted, yes, they aren’t always worth the paper they’re on), and there’s a chance like most hockey “firings” they’re still employed here until their contract ends.

    Most of all though, I’m just happy this move was made (more so Gare than Stu, but I’m happy with both). It had to be done, and I can can sleep a tiny bit better knowing that Chia isn’t oblivious to the fact that the team with the highest average draft pick in the last decade hasn’t been remotely close to one of the best drafting teams, outside of the rounds where us fans could get it right. As for Gare, good god, there is no doubt in my mind the Oilers are 30th in pro scouting ability.

  155. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Racki,

    In all seriousness, I agree with you. And pro scouting has been a disaster especially.

  156. slopitch says:

    To me this means the oilers went to make their lists and there was a big disconnect. Interesting timing. Still another week. Frankly I’m fine with it. No point keeping people around who you aren’t gonna listen to.

  157. G Money says:

    Re: an NDA (and a non-compete, and a non-solicit) – I can tell you from experience (both sides) that its easy to create this after the fact. You just pay for them.

    That is to say:

    1 – here’s your legally required (by contract or by employment law) severance

    2 – sign this three month NDA/non-compete and get an extra $100K

    3 – sign this one year non-solicit and get an extra $50K

    Not sure how much scouts are paid, but that extra payment for the NDA/non-solicit adding up to say an extra years salary, and you’ve bought and paid for silence well past the point where it can do you harm.

    When I left the “big corporation”, I left voluntarily, but they ended up paying a VERY hefty amount for a non-compete and non-solicit. Those were the days . . .

  158. frjohnk says:

    Man, this is one hell of a busy off season for the oilers and we still have the buyout period, the draft, free agency, trades to go through yet.

    Something big happens almost weekly.

  159. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money:
    Re: an NDA (and a non-compete, and a non-solicit) – I can tell you from experience (both sides) that its easy to create this after the fact.You just pay for them.

    That is to say:

    1 – here’s your legally required (by contract or by employment law) severance

    2 – sign this three month NDA/non-compete and get an extra $100K

    3 – sign this one year non-solicit and get an extra $50K

    Not sure how much scouts are paid, but that extra payment for the NDA/non-solicit adding up to say an extra years salary, and you’ve bought and paid for silence well past the point where it can do you harm.

    When I left the “big corporation”, I left voluntarily, but they ended up paying a VERY hefty amount for a non-compete and non-solicit.Those were the days . . .

    Yes, exact same in my world. Didn’t stop people from violating #2 in secret if they wanted to. #3 is a no-no. But who knows how hockey works.

  160. G Money says:

    Not surprised by these firings.

    The pro scouting has been the fustercluck to end all fusterclucks. That one’s overdue.

    The only question is: we all assume Howson pushed for Nikitin. How the fudge is that guy still employed?

    I’m not sure if MBS is the biggest amateur scouting issue they’ve got – that would be the BCHL guy(s). But as someone mentioned, I think maybe his “we gotta get some goalies instead of these other, much higher probability, players” would likely have been his downfall. You can only ride the Jordan Eberle pick for so many years.

    Hope Chia has some good replacements lined up. Aren’t some of the former Colorado guys available?

  161. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Yes, exact same in my world. Didn’t stop people from violating #2 in secret if they wanted to. #3 is a no-no. But who knows how hockey works.

    Yeah, in the end, there’s a little bit of honour involved. But also I would think the caution that stems from it being such a closed community would be an even bigger driver.

    Guy makes a deal in secret with Calgary and brings over the trade list, such as it was. And then someone from that organization ends up in Edmonton a year later and spills the beans (along with a few supporting emails) about the malfeasance, and legally it is a non-stop shit storm, big-time for both the cheater and the team that bought and paid him.

  162. RexLibris says:

    G Money: But as someone mentioned, I think maybe his “we gotta get some goalies instead of these other, much higher probability, players” would likely have been his downfall.

    That was me.

    I’m sorry to see MacGregor go, however, I am very relieved that they didn’t hang on longer than they perhaps ought to have after watching Prendergast and Moore before him live off the spoils of early success.

    On another note, Mr. GMoney, I finally got around to reading some of yours and WheatNOil’s piece on goaltending.

    Very nice work. Fantastic. I’ve begun poking around using your 1300 EV metric and it is interesting to start to parse some lists based on that number.

    Flames fans are thnking that Talbot is worth a 3rd and garbage or maybe a low 2nd and can’t really see the value in adding him when they have Hiller and Ortio with Gillies in the wings.

    I sit here and think to myself that Gillies is untested at the pro level, Ortio looks more and more like a Deslauriers-range player and Hiller is a UFA at the end of next season. They’re goaltending depth could evaporate before their eyes if they aren’t aggressive in pursuing strong options when they are available.

    Now, this is the fans talking, not the management, so it means very little. However, it is fascinating to view the same player from two different scenarios and with such a marked difference in opinion.

    I’d say keep up the good work, but I suspect that like the rest of us, this hockey thing is pathological with you. 🙂

  163. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    RexLibris,

    We’ve been on the same wavelength a lot lately. I hope that doesn’t mean I’m becoming a Flames fan. 😉
    http://lowetide.ca/2015/06/20/chiarellis-list/comment-page-1/#comment-421644

  164. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    The only question is: we all assume Howson pushed for Nikitin.How the fudge is that guy still employed?

    Off-season isn’t over yet. MacGregor was kept until he no longer proved useful. Howson may still have a role to play.

    (I’ve been watching Daredevil this evening)

  165. wheatnoil says:

    Seriously, though. Off-season isn’t over yet. I’m not sure Nicholson / Chiarelli are done with the management changes. Let’s talk in September about who’s still here and who isn’t.

  166. Doug McLachlan says:

    wheatnoil,

    Agreed. Very curious what happens on the pro-scout side of things.

    The last couple of years seems to have suggested a division between the “seen him good” and “math is good” crowd where each side champions one option.

    Two years ago it was Gordon on the math side, Clarkson (dodged that one) on the eyeball side. This past summer it was Fayne and NN.

    Curious to know if Chia, in dumping Morey Gare has clearly come down on one side or the other – and if so if it is obviously on the side the Oiler fans on this site would necessarily want?

  167. PDO says:

    Does anyone know what bridge DSF lives under? I’m still in favor of collapsing it. Preferably whIle he is there.

    This news tonight is great. The last 2 months have been nothing short of incredible. Hopefully we are saying the same a week from now when the roster is likely very different

  168. admiralmark says:

    PDO:
    Does anyone know what bridge DSF lives under?I’m still in favor of collapsing it.Preferably whIle he is there.

    This news tonight is great.The last 2 months have been nothing short of incredible.Hopefully we are saying the same a week from now whenthe roster is likely very different

    What so you’re not convinced Draisaitl is a bust after he wasnt able to duplicate Kopitar’s rookie season??

  169. spoiler says:

    admiralmark: What so you’re not convinced Draisaitl is a bust after he wasnt able to duplicate Kopitar’s rookieseason??

    I think he’s more pissed at DSF for using a season that Draisaitl hasn’t played yet… draft+2, calling it “rookie” instead, and knowing full well that tactic would just lead to a shitshow… I.e., using the commentors on this blog for his own entertainment purposes.

  170. v4ance says:

    Pro scouts would have given their input on all transactions at the NHL level.

    So Nikitin, Ference, Clarkson, Penner, Barker, Khabibulin, Fasth, Eager, Bryzgalov, O’Sullivan, Nilsson, Brule, Purcell, etc. would have all been vetted by those scouts if we acquired them or tried to. At minimum, the scouts would have agreed grudgingly with the GMs, if they weren’t actively pushing for acquiring those players.

    The record of futility should speak for itself in the pro scouting.

  171. AsiaOil says:

    Why have guys around who have a demonstrated record of giving bad advice? Fewer voices in the room who support MacT, Lowe and Howson is a good things when you are trying the form consensus and come to a decision. It will be enough work to isolate that group as it is.

    Sail on Stu – liked you Eberle pick – but aside from the #1’s the record was not great. Those screwed up #33s which are essentially high first rounders were a death knell.

    More blood to flow in pro scouting as well you would think – the Oilers have been simply awful there but I think Lowe, MacT and Howson have been very involved so that may have already been taken care of. Keep working the broom Chia – kitchen and hallways look OK now – but bathrooms and living room are still as mess 🙂

    dustrock:
    Still interesting to me that they’re dropping the scouts a week before the draft.

    Might have their lists but figured they’d keep them until after this draft.

  172. AsiaOil says:

    G & W&O – nice work on the new goalie analysis. Not enough time to go through it today (of which I am sure you are relieved 🙂 Won’t slay you for the short-cut as I don’t think it matters if you keep the conclusions realistic – and in this case the time element gets rid of guys who can’t play (well except in EDM as you show and that’s a stark case of horrible coaching/scouting in the Pete Peeters days).

    I remember years ago I ran a very dirty analysis that make me think that Dubnyk’s EV SP was better than Pogge’s when damn near everyone was arguing that Pogge was the better player – not much of an argument anymore. Same with the never-ending debates I had with the JDD fans who could not see how terrible the guy’s mechanics were – but his numbers were bad as well. I was however one of the guys who got sucked in by Markanen’s numbers – and thought a a combo with him and Conklin would work – lesson learned. Roloson brought experience AND good numbers – another lesson learned. Never supported the Scrivens-Fasth set up which was basically the same idea as Markanen-Conklin.

    As for Talbot – I dug into his 2014-15 numbers a bit today as it’s Sunday and have been running around all week – so I chilled out with a bottle of good Itlaian vino and did some crunching. Very interesting results and a big red flag – more on the next post LT makes.

  173. admiralmark says:

    AsiaOil,

    Nice tease. Did you cover all the potentially available ones? Ramo, Lack, Markstrom, Neuvirth, Enroth, Jones, Lehner, Anderson, Gibson?

  174. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide: I’m trying to confirm, seems out of order but then again the lists are set.

    Makes you (or me, at least) think they are going to trade with those picks. Assuming it is for a first pairing D fine by me.

  175. AsiaOil says:

    No I just looked at Talbot’s 2014-15 season – just waiting for LT to put up the new post 🙂

    admiralmark:
    AsiaOil,

    Nice tease. Did you cover all the potentially available ones? Ramo, Lack, Markstrom, Neuvirth, Enroth, Jones, Lehner, Anderson, Gibson?

  176. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide:
    I`m not absolutely certain there would be tremendous damage even if MacGregor was hired by (say) Calgary. They would know EDM`s list, but would that change their list? They could (as speeds suggests) trade up past EDM but the Oilers might trade past Calgary in a case of that kind as well. Interesting timing, I will say that.

    If Calgary learns the Oilers list it would of enormous help to them – they would know exactly who not to pick!

  177. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Rex

    That’s just the type of inflammatory comment I’d expect from a turtleneck-disparaging luddite!

    😉

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