FEVER IN THE FUNKHOUSE NOW

As we enter a crazy week that should see at least two NHL additions to the Edmonton Oilers roster (and a pile of draft picks) the time comes to have a good long look at attractive defensemen for procurement. Some of these men won’t be available but we’re going to talk about them all the same.

  1. Dougie Hamilton (72GP, 10-32-42, 21:20). A perfect fit for Edmonton, as he’s RH and can help in all three facets of the game (5-10-15 on the power play). Fantastic possession numbers and he’s starting to zoom Zdeno based on the numbers. OS is there.
  2. Andrej Sekera (73GP, 3-20-23, 21:59).  This is a nice player on several levels, including the fact he’s still in his 20’s. I’m surprised the Kings haven’t signed him, speaks to the cap issues. Good possession numbers, he did not receive harsh ZS’s last season.
  3. Zdeno Chara (63GP, 8-12-20, 23:21). No longer a PP demon (4-1-5) and his Norris days appear over. He’s expensive ($6.917M times three) and the Western Conference is a faster league, but the big man still has some miles left. Connection between PC and Z could impact a move, lord knows Boston needs to do something with their cap number. Possession numbers strong, especially considering Zstarts and qual comp.
  4. Paul Martin (74GP, 3-17-20, 22:47). The issue I have with projecting Martin (aside from age) is the sheer number of ridiculous players he was on the ice with last season. The numbers say Letang zoomed him pretty good, Edmonton doesn’t have a Letang.
  5. Mike Green (72GP, 10-35-45, 19:36). Still a fine power-play option (1-16-17), Green is the best offensive player in this group (or was last season). Like Franson, you wonder if the club can run Schultz with Green. One thing that I’d like to explore, and will if they sign him, is the wobbly bunch of blue he was assigned this season. Are Nate Schmidt, Jack Hillen and Tim Gleason All-Stars? Just kidding, they were all getting major ZS pushed and miles from the toughs. Still, good results for Green.
  6. Zbynek Michalek (68GP, 4-8-12, 20:46). Shutdown defender who can play the tough minutes and severe zone starts, which he did this past season (while managing a possession number north of 50%). Righty somewhat duplicates Mark Fayne’s job but does it in a more difficult part of the game and can play over 20 minutes a night.
  7. Cody Franson (78GP, 7-29-36, 19:38) The best power-play option on the list by point total (5-12-17) he’s probably ideally suited to second pairing and a zone-start push. I’m not certain there’s room for Franson and Schultz on the same team but that shouldn’t stop us from talking about Franson as an option.

THE WHO, BY NUMBERS

POSSIBLY AVAILABLE D 15-16

Hamilton’s card looks fantastic, Chiarelli has to be considering it. Seriously. Sekera eats up minutes and can do many things, Edmonton would be wise to find a way to get him and unload a current roster blue. Chara? I’d love to see him here but there are going to be some wobbly bits along with the braining of opposition youth. Mike Green fits for me, he’s an expensive option but the offensive numbers are true. Michalek is wildly underrated on this list (I’ve sorted by Corsi) but you can see the good he’s doing in the defensive zone on the grid. Cody Franson might be the last man on this list but he’d be a nice get, too. Anyone we should add?

So. Go for broke with Hamilton or sign Sekera and find a way to drop a defenseman before opening night? There’s also the option of Chiarelli keeping his powder dry until a team struggles and maybe wants to make a change. He did that in Boston, maybe he’ll try it here. I’d ride the wild surf and OS the young Hamilton. They’re going to hate you in Boston anyway, Peter, might as well sow the seeds of discontent.

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95 Responses to "FEVER IN THE FUNKHOUSE NOW"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    Montreal is tight to the Cap and with Subban & Petry 1-2 on the Right, Gilbert is a luxury there.
    He likes a physical partner – both Klefbom & Nurse are that.
    The Oilers could also offer to take the useful but overpaid Parenteau off the Canadiens balance sheet.

    New Jersey needs scoring, and are going through a bit of a rebuild.
    They’re light on assets in the org.
    Yesterday, I suggested Yakupov & 16, for Larssen & 36.
    A deal along that line might be available.

    Two of the guys on your list are Bruins, would/could Chiarelli & Sweeney play nice?

    Sekara would be sweet.

  2. stush18 says:

    I mentioned earlier in the year that mike green wood be my favourite addition because
    A) we have two other right handed dmen
    B) he should be willing to come here
    C) he has power play experience
    D) he has played with a superstar his whole career, couldn’t hurt to have him with mcdavid
    And finally

    HE CAN PASS TAPE TO TAPE WHILE PLAYERS ARE IN MOTION.

    Seriously, for whatever reason, we have lacked a dman that could send a forward a pass and hit him on the tape. Schultz seems to take forever to make a decision, and Klef might get there.

    We have our “shutdown” options in fayne and marincin.

    I’m convinced green doesn’t even need the crazy zone start push.

    Sekera-green
    Klef-Schultz
    Marincin-fayne

    Is my ideal summer, with no additions to forward other than a late summer cheap addition, ala Raymond, booth, Winnik. Track down the players who will outplay there contract value.

  3. G Money says:

    Sign Sekera and Michalek, push Schultz to third pairing, buy out Nikitin and retire Ference … BAM, playoffs!

  4. Lowetide says:

    stush: Agree on the passing. It’s one of my favorite parts of the game, and there are some sublime talents (Karlsson in Ottawa). I hope Schultz is working on that somewhere.

    G: It’s so damn easy!

  5. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    stush: Agree on the passing. It’s one of my favorite parts of the game, and there are some sublime talents (Karlsson in Ottawa). I hope Schultz is working on that somewhere.

    G: It’s so damn easy!

    Karlsson gets my vote as the best passer in the league.

    My favourite is when he steps out from behind the net and slaps a pass off the boards and springs his man with a perfect bounce pass.

    That’s amazing, especially when he can do it in multiple arenas.

  6. John Chambers says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I prefer any solution where the cost to acquire NHL defensemen is minimal … Because Edmmonton needs no less than 3 of them.

    Tom Gilbert, Roman Polak, Matt Carle, hell even Dan Girardi or any UFA who doesn’t require ridiculous term are all appropriate stop-gap solutions without having to part with the 16 OV or Nail Yakupov. I’m not adverse to trading quality players to get the right return (OEL is nirvana and I’d trade almost anyone save for Hall or McDavid), but we need several defensemen and I think a few good ones can be had on the cheap.

  7. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT,

    I asked this yesterday but it got lost in the draft din and then the Stu news.

    When looking at Boston’s cap crunch issues, how does Savard’s cap number calculate in? Once the season gets started he can go onto LTIR but how does that number actually constrain Sweeney over the summer (or does it)?

  8. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Yes, all damn day, sign the Czech’s.

  9. Doug McLachlan says:

    The question is relevant to looking not only at Boston (Savard) but also Philly (Pronger) and maybe even the Rangers (Zuccarello).

  10. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    Whitney pre-foot disaster and Pronger, those passes make a huge difference. HUGE.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT,

    I asked this yesterday but it got lost in the draft din and then the Stu news.

    When looking at Boston’s cap crunch issues, how does Savard’s cap number calculate in? Once the season gets started he can go onto LTIR but how does that number actually constrain Sweeney over the summer (or does it)?

    My understanding is that the Savard contract is full bore, meaning it’s included in the number until opening night, when it can go back on LTIR. For all intents and purposes, that contract counts toward the cap. That is my understanding. I imagine the Bruins have looked at trading it and that could happen this summer

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I believe teams can go over the cap by 10% during the summer but must be compliant before opening night

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    The other guy that could be available is the enigma that is James Wisniewski

  14. Yeti says:

    Would Boston take Schultz in a trade for one of their expensive D? e.g. Chara for Schultz trade? Gives them a project D and some cap relief. Gives Edmonton some stability on D, albeit with an aging player with term and dollars. I’m not advocating it, just wondering if it would be considered on either side.

  15. Cory Dakin says:

    Any chance we can distance ourselves from Schultz and Nikitin, bring in Franson and Green, and get a goalie without giving up the moon? That would be great.

  16. frjohnk says:

    I wrote this at the end of the last thread.

    Another look at goaltenders, especially Talbot.

    Ive done this a few times. Looked at a goalies save % from the low, medium and high danger areas and plugged in Oiler shots against.

    Oiler shots against save% all situations, parathesis is actual
    Carey.Price_0.929__(0.933)
    Cam.Talbot_0.922__(0.926)
    Eddie.Lack_0.921___(0.921)
    Craig.Ander_0.912__(0.923)
    Antti.Niemi__0.911__(0.914)
    Michal.Neuvi_0.910 _(0.914)
    Cam.Ward__0.905__(0.910)
    Jhonas.Enro_0.901__(0.904)
    Robin.Lehner 0.900__(0.905)

    Talbots numbers take a bit of a hit, 0.04 less,

    Some say that Talbot played in front of a pretty team defense.

    Percentage of shots against from the low danger area ( shots per game)
    oilers 42% ( 12.58)
    rangers 48% (14.4) with Talbot in net
    league avg 45% (13.45)

    percentage of shots against from the medium danger area
    oilers 28% (8.23)
    rangers 23% (6.95) with Talbot in net
    league avg 27% (8)

    percentage of shots against from the high danger area
    oilers 30% (9.11)
    rangers 28% (8.36) with Talbot in net
    league avg 28% (8.35)

    From this metric, the Rangers D were above league average. If I remember correctly they were around the 10th best defensive team in some of my earlier works, Oilers were 24th,25th. So yeah, Talbot played behind a decent defensive team.

    AsiaOil in another post, brought up some interesting tidbits about Talbot

    “I also looked at his performance in 14-15 using his record against top 10/average/bottom 10 teams based on standings and the bimodal effect was consistent. Talbot against top 10 teams was .931 in 13 starts – but .885 in 6 worst starts and .962 in 7 best starts. Against middle ranks teams he was .926 in 9 starts – but .895 in 4 worst starts and .965 in 5 best starts. Against bottom ranked teams he was .927 in 14 starts – but .881 in 7 worst starts and .969 in 7 best starts. With this instability it’s no surprising that NYR gave him very few starts down the stretch and none in the playoffs –”

    This fits right into my quality starts red flag about Talbot. This past year Talbot started 34 games and had 17 quality starts. So for the year his quality start % was 50%. Over 60% is really good, 53% is average, below 50% is poor. So what I did is that I went through all of Talbots games and plugged the oiler shots against %’s from all locations in all of Talbots games ,but I kept Talbots save % from each location from each game the same as was in that game.

    What happens in this model is that he allows 5 more goals from the 77 he let in this year. Not much, but it does 2 things.

    1. It lowers his goals saved above average from 12 in the year, down to 7. Still puts him in the top 20 and he was in the lower end of playing time. So this is still favorable. Heck, most goalies take a beating when plugging in oilers shots against.

    2. He loses 1 quality start. Now he has 16 in 34 games. Which brings his quality start % to 47%. This isn’t favorable. Even without my work, if you look at AsiaOils work, this is a very up and down goalie. If he was not a very consistent goalie in front of the Rangers D, how would he look in front of the oilers team defence? Also, is a goalie that is very up and down in his play from game to game, good for a young team that has witnessed goaltending self implode many games the last two years?

    These are just some things to ponder.

    End result is this. While there are some numbers like save %, oilers shots against save% and goals saved above average that we can look at that prove that Talbot could definitely be a bonafide number 1 starter, there are also some numbers ( quality starts and game to game play ) that disprove that notion.

    Right now, I’ll say this, I’ll be excited and nervous if we end up with Talbot. I’m not sure if he is a starter or just a good backup. And we wont know how this plays out until or if PC trades for him.

  17. Ben says:

    Peaches will be judged more severely on the big week ahead, but in the past few days, he’s extended Tyler Dellow and fired Morey Gare.

    As the man says: music!

  18. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: My understanding is that the Savard contract is full bore, meaning it’s included in the number until opening night, when it can go back on LTIR. For all intents and purposes, that contract counts toward the cap. That is my understanding. I imagine the Bruins have looked at trading it and that could happen this summer

    As I understand the rule it counts against the cap but is relieved when he can be put on LTIR. Meaning they can spend over the cap by the amount of his contract.

    However this forces them to spend to the cap at the start of the season hamstringing them with a lack flexability.

    Not sure exactly what the rules are on moving a guy who’s on LTIR. Toronto picking up Horton says it can be done.

  19. anonymous says:

    Wouldn’t want Chara at this point. I think he’d be exposed in the west. After watching him this year he’s definitely slowed. Like other respected veterans he gets the benefit of the doubt with the refs but with three years left I’d stay far away.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    Picking up Martin, Michalek, and Wiz would be pretty exceptional.

  21. gd says:

    I’ve got to hope Chia has a read on these 7 (plus maybe Ehrhoff) as he knows them all well from his Eastern Conference days to ensure one of them is an Oiler. The number of teams that can both afford the overpay and have the need are minimal. I think Dallas and Toronto are the biggest threats, with Calgary, Carolina, Colorado and maybe Columbus the other teams in the mix. I am hoping that Chia has the experience to use this early meeting period/draft day trades to have an idea of who we are getting before the June 30 QO/Buyout deadline for the NN/Schultz decision. My wish for each guy is in the exact order that LT has listed them at, with Sekera or Chara being the most likely guy we get.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Cory Dakin,

    There are approximately 8 “impact” UFA Dmen on the market in July. Getting any two of them would be a very big deal. It happens, but consider the very real possibility that we get 0, and be happy with 1.

  23. sliderule says:

    John Chambers,

    I feel the same way with goaltenders .

  24. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    Great work! One question… where do you get your Quality Start data? I pulled Vollman’s QS data and it has Talbot at 18 Quality Starts on the year (52.9%) and 16/19 Quality Starts in his rookie year (84.2%) thus giving him a career average of 64.2%, which is just above Lundquist and just behind Tim Thomas (with, of course, a MUCH smaller sample size). Overall, this puts him among very elite company on the overall list.

    Which leads to a follow-up question, how repeatable is Quality Starts? As in, if a goalies had a good Quality Start % in one season, is he likely to repeat this in following years?

  25. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    A couple of questions for you:

    1. Are you sure your numbers are right? The numbers for Michal Neuvirth do not look correct. Considering he played almost all of the year behind the worst defense in the league, his numbers should go up when ‘corrected’ to the Oilers, not down. In fact, all of your list go down, and all by exactly the same amount (0.04), and that doesn’t seem right.

    2. The real issue at hand is not how Talbot stacks up against the league right now – it is how does Talbot stack up against other early stage goalies?

    His sv% of course speaks for itself – second on your list, behind Carey Price, and far ahead of a number of more established goalies. That in itself should be bloody impressive to anyone.

    But the ‘quality starts’ metric strikes me as a different beast for early stage goalies. If there’s one thing that I/we definitively found – in addition to the fact that sv% @ 1,300 EV saves is highly predictive of career – it is that early stage goalies suffer from volatility. The first result was surprising, the second one was not at all.

    So in that regard, I very much question your statement that ‘some numbers ( quality starts and game to game play ) that disprove that notion’. All you’ve done is taken Talbot’s numbers and compared him to the entire league without qualification.

    Honestly? The only thing that would have surprised me, for him or for any other early stage goalie, is if you had found a high quality starts number. This would have been inconsistent with the early stage volatility every goalie goes through. Inconsistency, not lack of ability, is exactly what I found defines an elite early stage goalie.

    Or let me put it another way:
    – Every early stage goalie goes through sv% volatility.
    – The difference between the good goalies and the bad goalies during that time is sv%. That’s how you can tell the difference between them.
    – Sv% at 1,300 EV saves typically estimates to slightly underestimates career sv%.

    That was why I specifically looked at a comparable of Lack vs. Talbot in the last thread. Asia’s assessment dinged Talbot for a lack of consistency. The problem with that is that it had no comparable. Turns out Talbot so far is very comparable in terms of his game to game sv% volatility to Lack, another early stage goalie, albeit one half a season ahead (with an ever so slight edge to Talbot, who has slightly lower volatility and a noticeably higher median).

    To provide support for your contention that the quality start number you found has any (negative) predictive quality for Talbot’s career, you should be looking at the early stages of all the goalies (I have a convenient sample set available for you!) to see how it compares.

    Just as a guess, I would expect that Talbot’s QS and game to game play, like his sv%, will also land him on the elite side of the ledger when compared to his peer group at the same stages of their careers.

    If you find different, if you find a marked (negative) difference in that statistic from other elite goalies at the same stage in their careers – by adjusted sv%, Talbot’s peer group consists of Hiller, Reimer, Khudobin, Rask, Schneider, Crawford, Rinne, Holtby, Varlamov, and Price – then I’d say you’ve provided support for the argument.

    Otherwise what you’ve done is compared Talbot’s consistency in his first 57 games to a sample set that is dominated by veteran starters in the primes of their career, and found he’s not as consistent … which to my mind is exactly what defines an early stage goalie.

  26. Johnny Larue says:

    anonymous,

    I disagree definetly want Chara if we can get him for the right price. A pick and a prospect aka David Musil and 57 .He would be a great mentor for our young defence and still be a number 1 defence man on our team next year. His contract is only for 3 years so it expires with McDavid’s entry level deal

  27. bigbadbruin24 says:

    I, of course, would like to see both big men remain in Boston. If one of them has to go somewhere, then I hope Edmonton is the destination. Offer sheet to Hamilton HAS to be in the 2 firsts, a second and third range to have any chance at success IMHO. If it is only in the one first, a second and third range I cannot see the Bruins letting him go. Chara is probably not going to be the first option moved by the B’s if they retain and have to pay Dougie. If the Oil offer sheet Hamilton and the Bruins match, I don’t think they will be in the mood to deal Big Z to the Oilers.

    My hypothetical question is this. Assuming the Yotes take Strome and the Leafs grab Marner leaving Hanifin sitting at number five…does Yakapov and the #16 to Carolina get it done? Is it too much to give up? I think Yak rebounds this year but getting McDavid AND Hanifin this year…sheesh, lol.

  28. anonymous says:

    Johnny Larue,

    I’d only take him as the last resort on this list. Too much risk. Is it an over 35 contract?

  29. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    I think I might be able to pull quality start data for the first 1300 shots for most of the goalies on our list and compare that to quality start data for their career. Vollman’s got it all in one Excel spreadsheet dating back to 2007. So we’d miss a few of the goalies that started in the 05/06 and 06/07 season but we’d have the rest.

    How does Quality Start % in the early career compare to Quality Start % in the rest of the career?

    (Just when I think the project’s done and I can go back to my regular work. There’s a bunch of other stuff that can be done with this, but I imagine someone must have already looked at it. Specifically, how predictable are Quality Starts year to year? Maybe that’s a good first point.)

  30. rickithebear says:

    So we are clear again Chance Differential +ve makes teams better.
    +4.0 is damn good.
    D. Hamilton 1st +7.8
    Franson +6.6
    Sekura 1st +4.8
    Chara 1st +4.1
    ———————–
    Martin 1st +0.4
    Green +1.2
    Michalek -0.8

    Marincin 1st comp +6.4
    Klefbom 2nd comp +4.5
    Fayne 1st comp +3.1
    Nikitin 1st comp +0.8
    Nurse???
    ————————-
    Schultz – 3.3
    Aulie -7.3
    Ference -7.6

    Wisniewski +3.7 5.5m @ 2yr

  31. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Hey, if you’ve got the time to do that, fantastic!

    Even just using the data from 2007 ought to be very useful, given that in each case we’re typically looking only at the first 50 to 60 games. I imagine that ought to cover the majority of the sample set. Will be very interesting to see.

    Repeatability is of interest always, though one thing that crops up with goalies is that nothing about them data-wise that I’ve looked at trends towards short-term or season-to-season repeatability anyway! Which I think is a part of what gives them the well-deserved reputation for being voodoo.

  32. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    I’d be fine shipping Schultz back to Anaheim for Wiz.

  33. jake70 says:

    Didn’t realize Gare was let go until a post up above. Like Weaver’s character in Duel – ‘well it’s about time Charlie”.

  34. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    I did do this one quick test before I go put the kids to bed.

    The two guys that bracket Talbot for adjusted sv% at 1,300 EV saves in our sample set are the two Coreys, Crawford and Schneider (reasonably elite company to be sure).

    I pulled their EV game by game sv% history and calculated two means and stdevs for each, one for their first 60 games and one for the rest of their careers. It’s not the same as QS, and stdev isn’t particularly well-defined for non-normal distributions like this, but I’m using it because I believe that it can at the very least be used as a legitimate relative measure of volatility.

    Corey Crawford, first 60 games: unadjusted mean game to game sv% 92.11, stdev 8.4166
    Corey Crawford, rest of career: unadjusted mean game to game sv% 91.88, stdev 6.9351

    Corey Schneider, first 60 games: unadjusted mean game to game sv% 90.79, stdev 14.0151
    Corey Schneider, rest of career: unadjusted mean game to game sv% 92.26, stdev 10.3322

    If those sv% look wonky, remember that these are the game-to-game sv%, not cumulative sv%. These are however equivalent to the numbers I posted earlier for Talbot and Lack.

    Just two data points to be sure, but it does confirm that:
    – both goalies became markedly less volatile game to game later in their careers compared to the first 60 games
    – Talbot (and Lack for that matter) both compare extremely favourably in that department to these two guys, neither of whom is a slouch

  35. Mtl-oiler says:

    People bring up age as a concern when talking about possibly signing Paul Martin, 34, and how much he has left in him. This is a very valid concern.
    Why is then when they talk about Chara, 38, this is brushed aside.
    The guy has logged some heavy miles suffered two significant injuries this past year and has absolutely lost a step or three. History has shown that players over the age of 37 show a steep decline in performance and ability. Last year his decline was quite noticeable and will only more than likely accelerate. To top it off he has a $7,000,000 cap hit for the next 3 years! How many red flags do you need before you pause to think that maybe this isn’t a good idea.

  36. G Money says:

    Complete non-sequitur warning!

    This just came across my twitter feed:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/computers-are-learning-how-to-treat-cancer-and-diabetes-by-playing-poker-and-atari/?ex_cid=538twitter

    It’s of particular relevance to me (perhaps to you also if you went to the U of A) as it speaks to research being done at the U of A Comp Sci department.

    The original work referenced was started by Jonathan Schaeffer, now Dean of Science, back in the 80s. I worked for Jonathan as a summer student on his chess program, the precursor of Chinook (his world checkers champion, chronicled in the enjoyable book One Jump Ahead), and now the poker playing AIs Cepheus and Polaris. Sadly, I didn’t get to work on any of the last three, but I suspect that’s probably a good thing as they were likely well out of my sphere of expertise and ability to contribute!!

  37. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    Hey, if you’ve got the time to do that, fantastic!

    Truthfully, I don’t have time for it, which I realized about 15 minutes after I posted that as I got my kid ready for bed.

    I’ll look at some of the other names around Talbot and see how far I get.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Oiler forwards pre eakins (eakins)
    Hall +16.7 (+1.6)
    Mcdavid
    Draisatl +6.7

    Pouliot +9.0 (+4.4)
    RNH +10.0 (+2.5)
    Eberle +14.5 (+6.0)

    Purcell +6.0 (+2.5)
    Lander +5.2 (+2.1)
    Yakupov -4.5 (-5.5)

    Klinkhammer +10.9 (-0.5)
    Gordon -1.1 (-1.8)
    Hendricks -4.7 (-1.2)

    M. Fraser +4.0 (-9.7)
    Pakarinen (-3.7)

    Slepyshev?????
    Yakimov???????

  39. admiralmark says:

    anonymous:
    Wouldn’t want Chara at this point.I think he’d be exposed in the west. After watching him this year he’s definitely slowed. Like other respected veterans he gets the benefit of the doubt with the refs but with three years left I’d stay far away.

    I just wonder if we picked up Sekera as well.
    Then we could run 3 Pairings with:

    Sekera-Fayne
    Chara-Marincin
    Schultz/Klefbom

    Even with slowed down Chara we ease off on his toughs with Sekera-Fayne doing the heavy lifting.
    Too big a Cap hit for 2nd pairing? Maybe. Or is it worth it to give Marincin a push and at the same give Klefbom/Nurse some buffer to transition to the NHL? Of course Nikitin would need to be gone and Ference as a 7D… So maybe this is all just a pipe dream really?

  40. leadfarmer says:

    admiralmark,

    I could live with
    Sekera. Michalek
    Klefbom. Fayne
    Schultz. Marincin
    The captain on the treadmill
    Nikitin in Siberia

  41. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil:
    frjohnk,

    Great work! One question… where do you get your Quality Start data? I pulled Vollman’s QS data and it has Talbot at 18 Quality Starts on the year (52.9%) and 16/19 Quality Starts in his rookie year (84.2%) thus giving him a career average of 64.2%, which is just above Lundquist and just behind Tim Thomas (with, of course, a MUCH smaller sample size). Overall, this puts him among very elite company on the overall list.

    Which leads to a follow-up question, how repeatable is Quality Starts? As in, if a goalies had a good Quality Start % in one season, is he likely to repeat this in following years?

    Hockey reference.

    How repeatable is quality starts? I have not looked.
    Ben Scrivens 13-14 was at 63%
    Ben Scrivens 14-15 was at 37%

    G Money: A couple of questions for you:
    1. Are you sure your numbers are right? The numbers for Michal Neuvirth do not look correct. Considering he played almost all of the year behind the worst defense in the league, his numbers should go up when ‘corrected’ to the Oilers, not down. In fact, all of your list go down, and all by exactly the same amount (0.04), and that doesn’t seem right.

    My numbers are right. You will see that Lack has the same save %. Anderson goes down 0.011 points because when he was in net the Senators allowed 48% of their shots from the arrow ( high and medium danger areas) while the oilers allowed 58% of their shots from the arrow, relatively the same amount of shots against per game.

    The issue with the Buffalo goalies is that percentage wise, Buffalo allowed a higher % of shots from the perimeter than from the arrow than the oilers

    Buffalo shot against arrow 54%
    Oilers shots against arrow 58%

    So percentage wise, oilers faced tougher shots.

    BUT
    total shots allowed per game
    Buffalo 35.5
    Oilers 29.9

    Buffalo allowed more perimeter shots, more medium shots and more high danger shots than the oilers but it was weighted more towards perimeter shots than what the oilers had. That’s why the goalies look decent when we factor in save %. Most goalies in that list except Buffalo goalies faced relatively the same amount of shots. Its just the location from where the shots come from varies.

    If, and eventually I will do this, we add total shots faced we can find expected GAA. That’s another task.

    G Money: 2. The real issue at hand is not how Talbot stacks up against the league right now – it is how does Talbot stack up against other early stage goalies?
    His sv% of course speaks for itself – second on your list, behind Carey Price, and far ahead of a number of more established goalies. That in itself should be bloody impressive to anyone.
    But the ‘quality starts’ metric strikes me as a different beast for early stage goalies. If there’s one thing that I/we definitively found – in addition to the fact that sv% @ 1,300 EV saves is highly predictive of career – it is that early stage goalies suffer from volatility. The first result was surprising, the second one was not at all.
    So in that regard, I very much question your statement that ‘some numbers ( quality starts and game to game play ) that disprove that notion’. All you’ve done is taken Talbot’s numbers and compared him to the entire league without qualification.
    Honestly? The only thing that would have surprised me, for him or for any other early stage goalie, is if you had found a high quality starts number. This would have been inconsistent with the early stage volatility every goalie goes through. Inconsistency, not lack of ability, is exactly what I found defines an elite early stage goalie.
    Or let me put it another way:
    – Every early stage goalie goes through sv% volatility.
    – The difference between the good goalies and the bad goalies during that time is sv%. That’s how you can tell the difference between them.
    – Sv% at 1,300 EV saves typically estimates to slightly underestimates career sv%.
    That was why I specifically looked at a comparable of Lack vs. Talbot in the last thread. Asia’s assessment dinged Talbot for a lack of consistency. The problem with that is that it had no comparable. Turns out Talbot so far is very comparable in terms of his game to game sv% volatility to Lack, another early stage goalie, albeit one half a season ahead (with an ever so slight edge to Talbot, who has slightly lower volatility and a noticeably higher median).
    To provide support for your contention that the quality start number you found has any (negative) predictive quality for Talbot’s career, you should be looking at the early stages of all the goalies (I have a convenient sample set available for you!) to see how it compares.
    Just as a guess, I would expect that Talbot’s QS and game to game play, like his sv%, will also land him on the elite side of the ledger when compared to his peer group at the same stages of their careers.
    If you find different, if you find a marked (negative) difference in that statistic from other elite goalies at the same stage in their careers – by adjusted sv%, Talbot’s peer group consists of Hiller, Reimer, Khudobin, Rask, Schneider, Crawford, Rinne, Holtby, Varlamov, and Price – then I’d say you’ve provided support for the argument.
    Otherwise what you’ve done is compared Talbot’s consistency in his first 57 games to a sample set that is dominated by veteran starters in the primes of their career, and found he’s not as consistent … which to my mind is exactly what defines an early stage goalie.

    You make some great points here.
    I think the thing to do here is then see how he compares to that peer group ( not with oiler shots against though!, Id have to go through each game and that friggin sucks) and if he compares well with them, then I agree with you about 93.45%! 🙂

  42. godot10 says:

    Franson doesn’t help on the defensive end of the ice, so he is basically the worst move that can be contemplated on defense. The OIlers have lots of D who will be able to play the power play, and forwards on the point too, and maybe five forwards. 5 x $5.5 million for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING added.

    Ron Francis is almost certainly praying Hanifin drops to #5. With Faulk and Hanifin, he has the makings of an elite first pairing for the next 15 years. D is Carolina’s biggest need.

    The offer sheet to Hamilton should be at the one first, second, and third level. 4 years x $7.3 years. The minimum duration to get Hamilton to UFA status. It means you get a 2nd shot in 4 years if the Bruins match (critical if Klefbom and Nurse don’t plateau high enough). I think Newport represents Hamilton, and it would be could PR for the future. If Boston matches, then it shakes other Bruins loose at lower prices.

    Two of Hamilton, Sekera, Martin, Michalek,,,with Mike Green as the default 2nd option if one can only get one of the 1st four.

  43. Cory Dakin says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    To be clear, this is my dream scenario. I don’t think there’s any chance of it happening.

  44. admiralmark says:

    leadfarmer:
    admiralmark,

    I could live with
    Sekera. Michalek
    Klefbom. Fayne
    Schultz. Marincin
    The captain on the treadmill
    Nikitin in Siberia

    I agree. That would be an adequate step in the right direction for this year. Prob a wiser move then Chara as well. Good bye Pipe dream… i barely knew yah.

  45. G Money says:

    leadfarmer,

    This is the combination I suggested at the top of the thread, mainly because I think its reasonably achievable with just money (unlike Hamilton, OEL, where you have to warp around OS, trades, etc).

    But the pairings would probably have to live with Klefbom-Schultz together. Those guys work well together, as do Fayne-Marincin. Fayne with Klefbom or Schultz has been relatively speaking a disaster (and that’s true even when correcting for Fayne’s typically brutal zone starts).

    Of course, with two new capable defenders, you can mix and match to find chemistry, and hopefully you’ll find three pairings that work. But if Sekera-Michalek do end up your top pair, history suggests that you might have to go with K-S and F-M as your next two pairings.

  46. G Money says:

    frjohnk: then I agree with you about 93.45%!

    DAMN YOU! That remaining 6.55% will haunt me!!!

  47. dustrock says:

    Has anyone posted a closer look at Wisniewski? Have to think he’d be easy to get.

  48. G Money says:

    godot10: If Boston matches, then it shakes other Bruins loose at lower prices.

    The problem with this scenario is that
    a. the other Bruins shaking loose don’t necessarily benefit the Oilers
    b. in all likelihood, the asking price for other young defenders is driven up as a result, hurting teams that need to find defenders the most aka the Oilers

  49. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    admiralmark: I agree. That would be an adequate step in the right direction for this year.

    Us acquiring 2 of the top 4 free agent Dmen on the market is an adequate step in the right direction.

    There are lots of other teams that want those guys too. That’s an awfully high bar for “adequate step”

    Even with a great GM odds of getting one of Sekera or Michalek are way below 50%. Odds of getting both are super long.

    I like what you’ve done there, but replace “adequate step” with something more reasonable like “id be totally f&$king blown away with” and we’re there.

  50. Really? says:

    While the number of UFA options for the Oilers D are limited, one thing must not be forgotten.

    It would be complete idiocy to invest $7 million in Chara at age 38 when his skills and health are already in decline. Such an investment flies in the face of reason.

    Please take a pill and realize that there are other much better options available via the draft and trades and that the Oilers do not have to fill every hole in their line up this summer.

    Management must not hamstring the club over such a predictably bad move. They must use their head not their hearts in making these decisions.

  51. Cahoon says:

    G Money,

    I agree with that sentiment, that’s why I say if you are going to OS Hamilton, give the K-bomb a long, 4 per contract first.

  52. admiralmark says:

    Just realized the way Chiarelli has come in and made massive moves to clean up this mess is reminiscent of Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction. Perhaps his nickname should be Mr Wolf?

  53. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Sekera is in advanced contract talks with the Kings. He’s not going anywhere.

    Hamilton will be signed by the Bruins come hell or high water,

    Chara is a pipe dream unless you blow the Bruins socks off with an offer, And he has a no trade clause. He won’t want to finish his career with a pretender.

    Michaeiik, at 32, is unlikely to sign with a team that has no chance of winning unless he gets a massive overpay.

    Paul Martin might bite for the right offer but he’s been paid $5M per season and is likely not a good bet at more than $5M for a 35+ player.

    The Oilers ass backwards rebuild is starting to bite.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Cloudy, chance of rain.

  55. admiralmark says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Us acquiring 2 of the top 4 free agent Dmen on the market is an adequate step in the right direction.

    There are lots of other teams that want those guys too. That’s an awfully high bar for “adequate step”

    Even with a great GM odds of getting one of Sekera or Michalek are way below 50%. Odds of getting both are super long.

    I like what you’ve done there, but replace “adequate step” with something more reasonable like “id be totally f&$king blown away with” and we’re there.

    Somebody need a Snickers? 🙂

  56. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark:
    Just realized the way Chiarelli has come in and made massive moves to clean up this mess is reminiscent of Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction. Perhaps his nickname should be Mr Wolf?

    Oooo, that’s good. I like it!

  57. G Money says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Sekera is in advanced contract talks with the Kings. He’s not going anywhere.

    The last update from Sekera that I heard was two weeks ago that stated he was going to free agency. That’s a pretty clear indication that the talks with LA are not advancing.

    If you’ve heard different more recently, please post your source.

  58. admiralmark says:

    As a side note Lowetide. Can you imagine the pressure on Dustin Johnson with the game on the line and an Eagle putt to win the US Open and your Father in Law “The Great One” is there watching? If i was a rival fan I might be tempted to yell out “shoot the puck” before he took the shot.

  59. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    admiralmark,

    Totally.

  60. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark:
    As a side note Lowetide. Can you imagine the pressure on Dustin Johnson with the game on the line and an Eagle putt to win the US Open and your Father in Law “The Great One” is there watching? If i was a rival fan I might be tempted to yell out “shoot the puck” before he took the shot.

    It was awful. I feel so bad for the guy.

  61. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money: The last update from Sekera that I heard was two weeks ago that stated he was going to free agency.That’s a pretty clear indication that the talks with LA are not advancing.

    If you’ve heard different more recently, please post your source.

    “Sekera and his representation are obviously aware of the team’s financial mindfulness and that several moving pieces (contract negotiations with RFAs Tyler Toffoli and Martin Jones are among them) will likely be handled before negotiations escalate and firmer numbers are exchanged.

    But, it does appear as though Sekera wants to stay in Los Angeles, where there is a comfort level between him, the players, coaches and front office. Should the team and Sekera ultimately reach an agreement, it most likely would not take place until June, when the team is more aware of its “direction” in personnel moves and whether there will be sufficient room under the cap.”

    http://lakingsinsider.com/2015/04/28/kings-sekera-have-held-preliminary-talks/

  62. Lowetide says:

    risk of frost in low lying areas. Early morning motorists should be aware that fog will engulf the entire valley.

  63. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide:
    risk of frost in low lying areas. Early morning motorists should be aware that fog will engulf the entire valley.

    Did you whistle past the graveyard?

  64. Магия 10 says:

    Don’t wake the zombie.

  65. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Did u happen to notice that the posting date on your article was April 28th? Almost 2 months ago?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-nhl-teams-ready-to-move-picks-and-stars-as-trade-talks-heat-up/article25051119/

    Mirtle’s info from 2 hours ago is that Sekera is a UFA candidate for now.

  66. Dashingsilverfox says:

    v4ance:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Did u happen to notice that the posting date on that article was April 28th?Almost 2 months ago?

    Yes I did.

    But I’ll post this part again since both the player and team seem to be intent on making things work:

    “But, it does appear as though Sekera wants to stay in Los Angeles, where there is a comfort level between him, the players, coaches and front office. Should the team and Sekera ultimately reach an agreement, it most likely would not take place until June, when the team is more aware of its “direction” in personnel moves and whether there will be sufficient room under the cap.”

    Obviously LA has some work to do…likely somehow dealing with Mike Richards contract…but that doesn’t mean Lombardi is suddenly some kind of a moron.

    Perhaps things don’t work out in LA and then Sekera can sign with 29 other teams.

    I wouldn’t bet on it though.

  67. oliveoilers says:

    My dog died. But it’s ok. It wasn’t my favourite one.

  68. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    If you haven’t noticed, a lot of things can change in 2 months.

    Something like a McDavid, a Chiarelli, a Nicholson, etc, etc…

    Really you have nothing to disprove GMoney’s info that Sekera is going UFA other than an old report and your opinion?

  69. frjohnk says:

    Ran Talbots peer group

    OK, here we go.

    Jonas Hiller
    First 56 starts 63% quality starts .921 save %
    Since then 294 games started, 54% quality starts .916 save %

    Anton Khubodin
    First 53 starts, he had 64% quality starts .928 save%
    Since then 32 games started, 50% quality start %, .900 save%

    Tuuka Rask
    First 43 starts, he had 72% quality starts, .930 save %
    Since then 205 games started, 65% quality starts, .925 save %

    Corey Crawford
    First 59 starts, he had 63% quality starts, .918 save %
    Since then 195 games started, 59% quality starts, .916 save %

    Corey Schneider
    First 56 starts, he had 66% quality starts, .928 save %
    Since then 139 games started, 64% quality starts, .924 save %

    James Reimer
    First 69 starts, he had 49% quality starts, .911 save %
    Since then 88 games started, 50% quality starts, .914 save %

    Pekka Rinne
    First 49 starts, he had 57% quality starts, .917 save %
    Since then 317 games started, 60% quality starts, .919 save %

    Sergei Varlamov
    First 53 starts, he had 62% quality starts, .917 save %
    Since then 201 games started, 58% quality starts, .918 save %

    Carey Price
    First 40 starts, he had 60% quality starts, .920 save %
    Since then 385 games started, 59% quality starts, .919 save %

    Ben Scrivens
    First 63 starts, 59% quality starts, .917 save %
    Since then, 51 games started, 37% quality starts, .890 save %

    Cam Talbot
    First 53 starts, 62% quality starts, .931 save %
    TBD

    Some guys come flying out of the gate like Hiller and Rask and then settle just a bit under what their first 50 or so games were like.

    There are a couple of yo yo goalies, who are good one year, not so good the next in Reimer and Varlamov, though Varlamov has higher peaks and higher valleys than Reimer. Both play behind less than desirable team defences.

    Khubodin came out flying as well, not unlike Scrivens, but both crashed pretty hard this year. This is something to keep on eye as not all backup goalies that have good numbers can be turned into starters.

    My red flag warning on Talbot was the 50% quality start % he had this past year which shows he to be in the average/poor ranking in that metric.

    Here is the lowest quality start% of the goalies after their first 50 or so games.

    Hiller 51% this past year
    Khobodin 50% this past year
    Rask 59% in 10-11
    Crawford 49% in 11-12
    Schneider 58% in 13-14
    Remier 38% in 11-12, he was 60% year before
    Rinne 46% in 10-11
    Varlamov 36% in 12-13
    Price 54% in 09-10
    Scrivens 37% this last year

    So the 50% in 1 year, is really not something to be worried about.

  70. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    Good stuff.

    Really puts Scrivvies horrible year in context.

    Still feel like he’s going to rebound.

  71. G Money says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    That Sekera wants/wanted to sign in LA is not news.

    They’re still trying, but given the lack of movement and the extremely weak verbal out of Lombardi, I’d say it’s getting less and less likely, not more.

    If Lombardi can dump Richards’ toxic contract on someone, maybe that’ll change, but at this point I’d bet on Sekera going to UFA.

    His ask is a modest 4.5M, which goes to show just how bad LAs cap troubles are.

    If I’m Chia, I’m putting $5.5 x 5 in front of him on July 1.

  72. pocession charge says:

    G Money:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    That Sekera wants/wanted to sign in LA is not news.

    They’re still trying, but given the lack of movement and the extremely weak verbal out of Lombardi, I’d say it’s getting less and less likely, not more.

    If Lombardi can dump Richards’ toxic contract on someone, maybe that’ll change, but at this point I’d bet on Sekera going to UFA.

    His ask is a modest 4.5M, which goes to show just how bad LAs cap troubles are.

    If I’m Chia, I’m putting $5.5 x 5 in front of him on July 1.

    I agree. The hour grows late and LA’s hands are tied. Sekera needs to take care of his family — he’ll get more as a UFA than LA can afford to pay with all their bad contracts. I like your contract offer for Sekera. A Chara-Sekera defence pairing would be a big boost if PC could wrestle Chara out of Boston.

  73. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    frjohnk,

    Good stuff.

    Really puts Scrivvies horrible year in context.

    Still feel like he’s going to rebound.

    Yup. I wouldn’t bet against him rebounding somewhere in the .906 to .916

  74. AsiaOil says:

    FRJOHNK – G Money – W&O – great stuff guys and thanks for the work.

    Talbot has pros and cons but looks to be a quality backup at the least based on his limited record. My major concern still relates to the fact that we are assuming he dropped from space at 26 years old into the backup slot in NY. He did have a record prior to 2013-14 and ranges from obscure to ordinary. Not that pedigree is everything – but we have all seen how scouting reports at younger age are insightful. I think it’s dangerous to simply ignore other information and entirely focus on a few NHL games played as a backup to extrapolate starter performance. As I’ve said – I honestly can’t think of another guy with this kind of profile – has anyone seen any kind of scouting report on him? I can’t find anything and it would be nice to see something beside game numbers that discusses his strength/weakness/flaws. One way or another this will be an interesting guy to watch and we’ll certainly learn a few lessons from his development.

    As for Scrivens – yeah a bounce-back is certainly possible – I would not buy him out or anything. He simply was not ready to be a starter in a situation as chaotic as EDM was last year. That’s a job for an old bastard (compliment) like Roloson. It’s my worry with Talbot as well – his slot behind Henrik is one of the least stressful in the league – and EDM is the exact opposite. It should be better with Chia – but the head games in EDM made a mess of Dubnyk and he was a multiple year starter who was familiar with being on bad teams. I still like obtaining Talbot for the Petry picks – but would prefer Bernier for Scrivens and the #16 as the safer play. Then deal Yak and #33 for Larsson and #41 as others have suggested.

  75. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: It was awful. I feel so bad for the guy.

    Agreed, but that was really the only fitting way for that tournament to end, that is: with somebody missing a two-foot putt.

  76. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Morning. Some of you guys are way undervaluing Larsson and overvaluing Yakupov. Think a package centred around Draisaitl + 16 to get him. He’s just on the cusp of putting it all together to be a #1D for a decade.

    I kept saying the Oilers should trade for him last year and the year before and everyone was against it, not liking his being sent back down to the AHL, etc. Lesson in young D taking time. Remember they were saying Hedman wasn’t a good #2 pick and Tampa should have taken Duchene once upon a time, too. That’s why I said get Larsson before that. Once they figure it out there’s no chance of acquiring them.

    The next candidate for this is Seth Jones. Yes, there is risk getting him now before he figures it out, but once he does, he won’t be available.

    Better to aim for the UFAs than trade for Larsson now.

  77. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    G Money:
    It’s of particular relevance to me

    … because the U of A has been doing world class work in game theory for a very long time now.

    Some of the PR seems a bit sketchy. If a single compute node is evaluating 6 billion hands per second, I’ll eat my shirt. Two nodes per clock cycle? Wow. (Huge clusters tend to run at moderate clock rates for power efficiency. Speed at the high end loosely correlates with V, but power use—and heat production—correlate with V^2. More cores running at a modest voltage usually win.)

    There’s not much published yet (outside the academic paywall) on CFR+. But this older paper (2013) on CFR is fairly accessible:

    An Introduction to Counterfactual Regret Minimization

    Here’s the key sentence:

    One way of accomplishing this is through regret matching, where an agents [sic] actions are selected at random with a distribution that is proportional to positive regrets.

    It’s actually curricular material from An Introduction to Counterfactual Regret Minimization to help students grasp a result from Hart and Mas-Colell from 2000.

    Despite the one recent article on CFR+ being paywalled, the entire source code is available for download and it’s barely a weekend project to crawl through.

    CFR+

    Unfortunately, in my new life my wiki mainly consists of pages flagged [[category:for later]].

    That is so awesome. Woooooooooot!

    Ah, another PR got it right: 6 billion hands-per-second across the entire cluster of 4000 nodes. And the code is simple enough to make this believable.

    Of course, they are hiding something from the common man’s understanding of poker. Nash equilibrium strategies are not necessarily winning strategies. They are actually “can’t lose” strategies. It’s often the case that can’t lose == can’t win. No matter how badly you play, the strategy won’t deviate from safety to clean you out post haste. It will certainly clean you out if you play poorly enough, but perhaps not until the next rent cheque is due.

    However, if you play badly in some obvious way against a human poker professional, kiss your pile goodbye long before last call, lights out.

    The next great poker project is to perfect Fleece Razor 1000 (in which the program deviates far from Nash equilibrium, all the better to eat you with).

    Edit: In computer chess there is a parameter known as “contempt level” which I think means “don’t fret about the counterplay you’re giving up if your opponent successfully weathers the storm, the turnip on the other side of the board is way too dim to see it.” Good computer chess programs these days have contempt cranked pretty high when playing human grand masters.

    Reporter: What would it take to beat a chess computer in this era?

    Weary grand master: A hammer.

    True comeback.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Two months ago Dubnyk was for sure signing with the Wild. Now it looks like that might not happen. Lot of things change when people start talking money.

  79. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Also add that Sekera has more value than Petry. 6 x $6M likely the minimum. It upsets me so much that we traded for Nikitin’s rights instead of Stralman’s. Was upset then and don’t get me started now.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Also add that Sekera has more value than Petry. 6 x $6M likely the minimum. It upsets me so much that we traded for Nikitin’s rights instead of Stralman’s. Was upset then and don’t get me started now.

    Comfort yourself the way I do. Remind yourself that all roads up till now have led to McDavid.

  81. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    It would have been a very difficult thing to convince someone to leave New York City on the back of being so close at a cup to come to Edmonton to play for a team miles and miles away from the playoffs. Would have had to pay at least a $1million more than anyone else in my opinion, maybe more.

    Fayne was a solid bet with decent results. Nikitin was a bad bet (in the sense that it was easy to aniticpate his failure) with arguably even worse than anticipated results.

  82. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    Franson doesn’t help on the defensive end of the ice, so he is basically the worst move that can be contemplated on defense.The OIlers have lots of D who will be able to play the power play, and forwards on the point too, and maybe five forwards.5 x $5.5 million for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING added.

    Ron Francis is almost certainly praying Hanifin drops to #5.With Faulk and Hanifin, he has the makings of an elite first pairing for the next 15 years.D is Carolina’s biggest need.

    The offer sheet to Hamilton should be at the one first, second, and third level.4 years x $7.3 years.The minimum duration to get Hamilton to UFA status.It means you get a 2nd shot in 4 years if the Bruins match (critical if Klefbom and Nurse don’t plateau high enough). I think Newport represents Hamilton, and it would be could PR for the future. If Boston matches, then it shakes other Bruins loose at lower prices.

    Two of Hamilton, Sekera, Martin, Michalek,,,with Mike Green as the default 2nd option if one can only get one of the 1st four.

    I don’t get the hate for Franson. He would be great as a Schultz replacement.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/playing-hardball-with-franson-will-cost-leafs/

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

    Here are a couple of examples of folks that have looked inot Franson and come to different conclusions.

    He is not a top pairing guy, but put him on the second pair and have him run the powerplay and things are good.

  83. GCW_69 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Morning. Some of you guys are way undervaluing Larsson and overvaluing Yakupov. Think a package centred around Draisaitl + 16 to get him. He’s just on the cusp of putting it all together to be a #1D for a decade.

    I kept saying the Oilers should trade for him last year and the year before and everyone was against it, not liking his being sent back down to the AHL, etc. Lesson in young D taking time. Remember they were saying Hedman wasn’t a good #2 pick and Tampa should have taken Duchene once upon a time, too. That’s why I said get Larsson before that. Once they figure it out there’s no chance of acquiring them.

    The next candidate for this is Seth Jones. Yes, there is risk getting him now before he figures it out, but once he does, he won’t be available.

    Better to aim for the UFAs than trade for Larsson now.

    I also was pushing hard for Larsson last summer. I agree Larsson is on the cusp, and Shero has a prospect pool at forward that is pathetic.

    If the cost for Larsson was the 16th and Draisaitl I would pay it, but I suspect Draisaitl and the 33rd would get it done.

  84. OilSafety says:

    Due to LA trying to unload Richards is there any chance of a sign and trade for sekera at say 5m per packaged with Richards to the oilers with the intention of them then buying Richards out?

  85. raventalon40 says:

    OilSafety:
    Due to LA trying to unload Richards is there any chance of a sign and trade for sekera at say 5m per packaged with Richards to the oilers with the intention of them then buying Richards out?

    What incentive does LA have to do this? They want to retain Sekera and remove Richards, not remove both.

  86. GCW_69 says:

    Washington still does not have Holtby locked up. If he makes July 1, should the Oilers offer sheet Holtby?

  87. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    OilSafety:
    Due to LA trying to unload Richards is there any chance of a sign and trade for sekera at say 5m per packaged with Richards to the oilers with the intention of them then buying Richards out?

    No.

    Buying Richards out would have an impact on our cap for years and years. Not worth it for any player.

    Plus I’m sure LA would be reluctant to do that to a player. Imagine trying to sign your next UFA after you screw Sekera like that. Yikes.

  88. OilSafety says:

    raventalon40,

    They can’t get rid of Richards without sweetening the pot. Le burn said recently that even if Richards is traded and plays but retires before the end of his 5 year contract la would still get hit with cap implications. If I’m chereli I’m on the phone telling them I will take their ugly contract and buy it out for them saving them from cap hell but it’s going to cost sekera. LA can still attract free agents to full in sekera to stay competitive.

  89. OilSafety says:

    Maybe it takes sekera +, due to cap implications for the oilers due to a buy out. It saves us the free agent battle for the best d option this year, and possibly gets him at a lower rate to boot. Just spit balling here, waiting for today’s post.

  90. frjohnk says:

    Buying out Richards is a cap hit of 1.46M until 2025.

    No thanks.

  91. OilSafety says:

    frjohnk,

    Ouch. Wasn’t aware of the length of that impact. Looks like LA will be dealing with that one on their own.

  92. frjohnk says:

    OilSafety:
    frjohnk,

    Ouch. Wasn’t aware of the length of that impact. Looks like LA will be dealing with that one on their own.

    plus they have Brown

    and Quick whose contracts are yuck

    and I wouldn’t want to have Carter and Gaboriks contracts a few years down the road as well.

  93. wheatnoil says:

    Edmonton has asked permission to talk to former Ott head coach MacLean. Associate coach?

    https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/612990519170326528

  94. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: I don’t get the hate for Franson.He would be great as a Schultz replacement.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/playing-hardball-with-franson-will-cost-leafs/

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

    Here are a couple of examples of folks that have looked inot Franson and come to different conclusions.

    He is not a top pairing guy, but put him on the second pair and have him run the powerplay and things are good.

    I’m not paying $5 million or more for a defensemen who CANNOT play 2nd pairing defense in the defensive zone. Klefbom and Nurse can bring what Franson does on the power play. It is really dumb, IMHO, to pay for offense only defensemen.

    Mike Green can probably play 2nd pairing D, and bring elite 1st pairing offense…

    Franson is good on the powerplay but otherwise is just another 3rd pairing D. Petry is a significantly superior defensemen to Franson, and he is considered a 2nd pairing D.

    His contract is going to doom some team. I don’t want it to be mine.

  95. auzy11 says:

    Picking up Chara would be the worst thing the Oil could do!!!!!!!!!!

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