SAIL ON, KAMLOOPS BLAZER

When it comes right down to it, there’s no forensics needed in regard to the reasons Stu MacGregor lost his job yesterday. To the tremendous high of Jordan Eberle’s selection to the ‘Death Valley Days’ second round, this one writes itself.

I’d like to begin this post with an apology to Stu MacGregor. As David Staples’ tweet from December beautifully illustrates, I did more damage than good to the scouting director’s reputation and for that I’m sincerely sorry. Lesson learned.

Now let’s move on to those picks that got MacGregor fired. The Edmonton Oilers 2008-14 did very well at the draft table IF they stayed away from the walkabout picks—selections I define as being reach picks. When Stu MacGregor was risk averse, good things usually happened. Here are the risk averse selections (I’m using the top 100 from every year, because a pick after No. 100 isn’t a reach).

STU MACGREGOR’S RISK AVERSE SELECTIONS

2008

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)

2009

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked #57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked #58 (attended combine)

2011

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Dillon Simpson selected #92, ranked HM

2012

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)

2013

  • Darnell Nurse at #7–ranked #9 (attended combine)
  • Marc-Olivier Roy at #56–ranked #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov at #83–Pronman #73 (attended combine)
  • Anton Slepyshev at #88–Pronman #45
  • Jackson Houck at #94–Pronman #91 (attended combine)

2014

  • Leon Draisaitl at #3—Bob McKenzie #4 (attended combine)
  • William Lagesson at #91—Pronman #60, ISS #71

All numbers are Bob McKenzie unless otherwise noted, and all players listed were within 15 slots of their ranking (that’s half a round, seems a reasonable spot to draw a line in the sand). There ARE picks that didn’t work out or are trending in a downward fashion but I think it would be difficult to fire the scouting director over Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton and Travis Ewanyk. These are players who—on their draft day—had significant value for NHL teams, as reflected by their presence on Bob McKenzie’s list.

Now, the walkabouts.

THE MACGREGOR WALKABOUTS

2008-None

2009

  • Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall, unranked
  • Cameron Abney selected #82 overall, unranked
  • Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall, unranked

2010

  • Martin Marincin selected #46, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Jeremie Blain selected #91, not ranked

2011-None

2012

  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Erik Gustafsson selected #93, not ranked

2013

  • Kyle Platzer at #96–Pronman #151 (reach)

2014-None

There are a few picks on each side that probably belong with the other group. David Musil, Samu Perhonen and Travis Ewanyk get lots of attention as bad selections, but the idea here is to take bias out of the equation and in fact those players were in the window of value. From the walkabout group, Martin Marincin and Kyle Platzer have a chance to be winning picks. Either way, if you’re looking for specific reasons why Stu MacGregor is out of work, Cameron Abney, Troy Hesketh and others in this group are likely part of the answer.

One final item before we move on: I have Mitch Moroz listed here because he was taken early. That’s not a reflection of Moroz, as you know, and he hasn’t been given the courtesy of five years post draft to show his abilities. We need to respect that will all of these players.

THE MACGREGOR DRAFTS

Stu MacGregor and his scouting department drafted from five distinct categories:

  1. The #1 overalls. He was completely risk averse here, they simply grabbed the best player available and walked off the stage. I do believe the club has had periods of time in their history where they might have outsmarted themselves.
  2. The ranked/combine group. This is the heart of the MacGregor group—32 players were either ranked, attended the combine or did both things. The best among this group (excluding the #1 overalls) might be Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Bogdan Yakimov.
  3. The walkabout bunch. This is the group that sees Edmonton grab players inside the top 100 who are not ranked in the top 100 and were not included in the combine group. This collection includes Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Jeremie Blain. We shouldn’t expect this to be an area of strength, this is “drafting for need” and “feeling a passion” and rarely works out. I think this group got MacGregor fired.
  4. The overage kids. Beginning with Kyle Bigos and blossoming 2012, the Oilers seem to have a fascination in late rounds with overage draft and follows in Europe and the NCAA. That list would include Bigos, Kellen Jones, Joey Laleggia,  John McCarron, Aidan Muir, Evan Campbell, Zach Nagelvoort, Liam Coughlin and Tyler Vesel. Most of these selections occur outside the top 100 overall. Edmonton hasn’t seen much from this group but many were taken in recent years and few were dear selections.
  5. The BCJHL. Kyle Bigos, Kellen Jones, Jujhar Khaira, Evan Campbell and Liam Coughlin have all been taken by the team since 2008. Khaira is the only major selection in the group, but the drafting from the BCJHL seemed excessive based on the returns.

Bob Green takes over and one hopes the risk averse style is adopted full force AND it’s also reasonable to suggest that the Oilers would be wise to listen closely to the math people in their employ. Specifically, the following players will likely be moneyball-style selections for the 2015 draft next weekend:

  • Jeremy Roy
  • Anthony Beauvillier
  • Blake Speers
  • Dante Salituro
  • Dmytro Timashov
  • Tyler Soy
  • Giorgio Estephan

Supernova with a nice sentiment last night, thought I’d share it here as we exit. I’m not arguing the MacGregor firing, suspect it’s best for the organization to move along in lots of areas. I will say that many of his picks are still developing and we should give them time. Stu MacGregor’s fate was sealed during the Steve Tambellini era and with the walkabouts.

It’s a lesson for all scouts. Risky picks in the top 100 will bite you squarely in the ass, especially in the modern NHL with McKenzie’s list and all of the analytics available. Put another way: The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to aggressively draft based on what has high value and their own predictive model. If you have one, follow the damn thing. If you don’t? Sail on.

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114 Responses to "SAIL ON, KAMLOOPS BLAZER"

  1. Clarkenstein says:

    Another by-product of the KLowe Cluster Era loses his job. But he doesn’t. And so it goes.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    He was incompetent. That’s what got him sacked.

    Chiarelli’s an honest to goodness Real Smart man.

    Slats was the last Real Smart Man running this team.

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    Tambo and MacT searching for coke machines instead of BPA.

  4. supernova says:

    hunter1909:
    He was incompetent. That’s what got him sacked.

    Chiarelli’s an honest to goodness Real Smart man.

    Slats was the last Real Smart Man running this team.

    hunter1909,

    I did some work digging into Oilers draft picks comparable to other teams.
    MacGregors draft record was average to slightly above.
    Oilers development and pro-scouting were abysmal.

    When Oilers promoted Bob Green the writing was on the wall.

    When Nicholson made comments about draft picks, we knew heads would roll.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    One should Pity the holdovers who still believe that Lowe+MacT were anything like competent NHL Hockey managers. They weren’t; in the Saddam Hussein+1991 Republican Guard “Highway of Death” kind of way.

  6. Ducey says:

    If Green can draft for the Oilers the way he did for the Oil Kings, the Oilers should have some good drafts.

  7. hunter1909 says:

    supernova: Oilers development and pro-scouting were abysmal.

    You’re probably right. Unfortunately, everyone gets creamed in Chiarelli’s post-Lowe+MacT management apocalypse.

  8. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide said, “Specifically, the following players will likely be moneyball-style selections for the 2015 draft next weekend:”

    LT, I know you resisted and resisted, but did you ever get around to reading the book?

  9. hunter1909 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Tambo and MacT searching for coke machines instead of BPA.

    Lowe+MacT mocking the young players because they weren’t tough enough.

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    One of those things that had to happen based on results, but we will never know whether this is his fault or not. A head Scouts job is to advise decision makers, rather than to be a decision maker, and anyone that says different is lying or misguided.

    I’m not sad it happened, nor am I happy. I simply hope Chiarelli either gets better advice or listens to good advice better than his predecessors.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m not sad it happened, nor am I happy. I simply hope Chiarelli either gets better advice or listens to good advice better than his predecessors.

    Or this: Chiarelli knows his business. Unlike the post-Sather management corporate welfare chiselers.

  12. supernova says:

    I am a huge Bob Green fan.

    I lived for a few years in Medicine Hat.
    Green is highly regarded by the locals.
    The arena in the Hat is (was) conducive to a regular joe like me deciding to stand amongst the scouts.
    I loved being a fly on the wall listening to scouts chat about what we were watching.

    Green was a very very good junior scout.

    I would bet large money on him being a very good amateur scout for NHL club.

    If Green gets the final say on the pick I am at peace.

    If Chia is the final decision maker between 2 or 3 possible picks, I am less at peace.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    Lowetide said, “Specifically, the following players will likely be moneyball-style selections for the 2015 draft next weekend:”

    LT, I know you resisted and resisted, but did you ever get around to reading the book?

    No, but I watched the movie! It was brilliant. I have read snippets of the book as well.

  14. supernova says:

    hunter1909: You’re probably right. Unfortunately, everyone gets creamed in Chiarelli’s post-Lowe+MacT managementapocalypse.

    hunter1909,

    Absolutely don’t forget Tambo in that mix.

    The fascination that GM’s have with “Big” hockey players can kill any Head Scouts career.

  15. Ducey says:

    flyfish1168:
    Elliotte Friedman 30 thoughts

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-trade-talk-beginning-to-heat-up/

    The Oilers are/ were in on Mike Reilly.

  16. frjohnk says:

    The 09 trio listed in the walkabout list is a “WTF was that”?

    If Moroz would have been picked in the 3rd round in the 2012 draft, that would not have been that bad. ( only 8 players drafted 2nd round and lower 2012 have played more than 20 games in nhl. Still early but it does not look like a strong draft)

    If any of the 2nd round picks
    Pitlick
    Hamilton
    Marincin
    Musil
    Moroz
    Roy

    Would have turned into a stud player, it’s also a different story. Out of that list, there is only 1 NHL player of value to the oilers. That’s terrible 2 nd round results.

    I think the guys on this blog could have done a better job drafting for the oilers.

    And that’s no joke.

  17. Traktor says:

    “If you don’t? Sail on.”

    lol

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    hunter1909,

    You aren’t wrong, but even people that know their business need to listen to the people around them.

    A GM by himself doesn’t have time in the day to be head scout too. So I stand by my position that he either needs to get better advice or, if the advice is already good, do a better job at listening.

  19. Traktor says:

    supernova: hunter1909,

    I did some work digging into Oilers draft picks comparable to other teams.
    MacGregors draft record was average to slightly above.

    Based on what?

    If its games played we know that Edmonton was calling up their picks whereas the cup contenders had limited opportunities for youth.

    Edmonton was also pick 2-29 spots earlier in each draft than other teams.

    The big thing though is average or slightly above average in pro sports is death.

    When you consider Edmonton was rebuilding… putting all their resources into scouting… developing youth… setting back the franchise 5+ years to find the next crop of NHLers… and starting with the earliest picks.. average in this case is pretty bad failure.

    Sail on.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    Firstly, I see zero reason to feel the need to apologize for “The Magnificent Bastard” nickname.

    As your great post on your Father makes clear, you were raised with the gift of optimism and that is a nickname borne of same. It is/was a great nickname and Stu had every opportunity to live up to it. I’m sure the handle didn’t bother him in the least. If anything, it would’ve been good for a laugh.

    These things take on a life of their own only if a lot of people like it, agree, and adopt it into the vernacular. And compared to Prendergast and the majority of the Fraser era, Stu WAS a Magnificent Bastard.

    Second, wonder if the Yakupov pick riles Stu? Part of his legacy is judged on that pick and by all indications he didn’t want to take Nail and was overruled by the owner.

  21. russ99 says:

    Can’t blame Stu for poor GM decisions, being overridden on picks, and his late picks people complain about were the usual scout “in the know” choices that all teams make and the chances of getting an NHL regular there are very slim.

    He’ll land on his feet.

    Any word on the other scouts let go? If Morey Gare still has a gig one minute more that it takes for Chiarelli to bring his pro scouting guys over from Boston I’ll be pretty disappointed.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    Looking at his draft record in summary form, I would say it was the lack of success in the second round that killed him, much moreso than the walkabouts.

    Two fringe roster players in 7 years. That is brutal.

  23. Mtl-oiler says:

    hunter1909: Or this: Chiarelli knows his business. Unlike the post-Sather management corporate welfare chiselers.

    I would wait until we see what Chiarelli does before anointing him the savior of this franchise.

    His record is somewhat spotty.
    His salary cap management was bad.
    His draft record wasn’t much better or even worse than the guy he just fired.
    He’s made some great trades, Rask & Boychuck (coming) and some horrible ones, Seguin, Boychuck (going).

    He may be a great GM, I really hope he is, but let us see if has learnt from his past mistakes before giving him the GM of the year award.

  24. Racki says:

    russ99:

    Any word on the other scouts let go? If Morey Gare still has a gig one minute more that it takes for Chiarelli to bring his guys over from Boston I’ll be pretty disappointed.

    Gare was one of the ones let go. This is a bigger deal to me than Stu going. By that, I mean, I’m far more happy about that decision than the others. The Oilers amateur scouting has been OK, but not great, by my eye, whereas the pro scouting has been embarrassingly bad… lead leading bad. So that is a relief.

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    russ99:
    Can’t blame Stu for poor GM decisions, being overridden on picks, and his late picks people complain about were the usual scout “in the know” choices that all teams make and the chances of getting an NHL regular there are very slim.

    He’ll land on his feet.

    Any word on the other scouts let go? If Morey Gare still has a gig one minute more that it takes for Chiarelli to bring his guys over from Boston I’ll be pretty disappointed.

    Gare is gone. About effing time.

    The Old Boys Club takes a serious hit. Stock price soars.

  26. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: No, but I watched the movie! It was brilliant. I have read snippets of the book as well.

    lollygagger!

  27. rickithebear says:

    2013:
    Nurse
    Yakimov
    Slepyshev
    Platzer
    Muir
    Betker
    Chase

    2014
    Draisatl
    Lagesson
    Nagelvoort better career sv% than Schnieder; bishop; Elliot at same age

    I wish we kept the guy who ran these drafts.

    Head scout is a figurehead.
    Feiste in Calgary loked at years of scouting reports and kept the ones with repetitive hits.

  28. commonfan14 says:

    On the 2nd rounder misses, I once looked it up and found that, oddly enough, the Pens and Hawks also both got jack squat from their own 2nd rounders during their high pick years. Maybe some weird draft mindset kicks in with teams where they use a different philosophy with their 2nd rounders after hitting what they think are home runs in the first.

    Anyway, hopefully that won’t happen this year to Bob “Hopefully League-Average or Slightly Better Bastard” Green.

  29. square_wheels says:

    Friedman’s comments about inter divisional trading remains my concern, lock step with Talbots resume having the Devil involved. Would it make more sense for Chia to sign Neuverth or Niemi for a few years, de risking the rebound of Scrivens ?

    if we’re going to lose 1st and 2nd round pics or top prospects, it damn well better be for the one thing we can’t wait for – NHL dmen. Nashville is another team that must have a scout that’s a D savant(just watch this new SEL player turn into Stralman), could there be anyway Weber is made available ?

  30. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    Nashville and Anaheim have tremendous skill at drafting D. Would love to poach one of the responsible persons.

  31. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    We have some vacancies apparently !!

    But we do need to become comfortable with magic beans going out and actual players coming in.

  32. kinger_OIL says:

    Just cutting and pasting from a few to add to this, becasue, you know:

    5 year old son just game me a small painting he did at school and a a backwards hand writing (as 5 years write). The expression on his face and excitment for me to open his gift was priceless. Some wonderful poignant Father’s Day memories posted: keeping it classy!

    G: I won’t have it at ‘er today with your great work: but its just our mileage varies: Chia acquired Rask, and lots fell into place for his team subsequent, so that’s his reference, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to do the same thing. I’d rather play small ball, and not overpay, get the next guy, who won’t be nearly as expensive as the “best” – but I manage different risk and have different rewards in my line of work, and I’m not a 5 guratenteed year deal paying me millions to win: so I am projecting!

  33. sumaclab says:

    OMG. The “holiday” is officially over and done. Next bombshell PC please? Can’t we have one week where this off season where we can just sit back and enjoy the thought of drafting CM number 1 next Friday night. I am in Calgary next week Friday for the weekend. I am going to find a Flames hangout and walk in with my Oilers jersey cheering like an idiot for McDavid.

  34. gd says:

    I don’t have a problem with anyone Chia gets rid of from the old days as in my eyes everybody is “guilty by association” for the last 9 years.

    I don’t get the Howson hatred though. Is it only due to the Nikitin signing? Because other than that I don’t think he has been around long enough to carry too much blame. He was in over his head as GM in Columbus, but his legacy is a hard working, gritty team that have many of the elements that we lack, including Jenner (who we all wished was picked instead of Musil) and a great goalie obtained for 2nd rd picks before he was established. He seems like a guy with enough “hockey smarts” that if he is in the right position in an organization he could be an effective contributor.

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, we’re 5+ years out now and can officially make the call.

    Magnus Paajarvi is a bust.

    Maggie simply refused to go the hard areas with any regularity. Hopefully he represents the antithesis of the new regime’s ‘hard on the stick’ philosophy.

    When draft pundits claim that skill is all that matters when assessing hockey talent, we’d all do well to remember players like Paajarvi, Steve Kelly, Jason Bonsignore, etc.

    Skill without will is the bust recipe in a nutshell. Let’s draft players to win Championships not Skills Competitions.

  36. Mtl-oiler says:

    “Is it only due to the Nikitin signing?”

    Isn’t that enough?
    We not only way overpaid a guy with no history to merit anywhere close to the money he was given we gave up a 5th rounder for the privilege.
    Brutal.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw, we’re 5+ years out now and can officially make the call.

    Magnus Paajarvi is a bust.

    Maggie simply refused to go the hard areas with any regularity. Hopefully he represents the antithesis of the new regime’s ‘hard on the stick’ philosophy.

    When draft pundits claim that skill is all that matters when assessing hockey talent, we’d all do well to remember players like Paajarvi, Steve Kelly, Jason Bonsignore, etc.

    Skill without will is the bust recipe in a nutshell. Let’s draft players to win Championships not Skills Competitions.

    The worry about Paajarvi was offense, that remains the worry.

  38. flygoalie says:

    Hopefully the next regime develops a better method than locking themselves in a room, drinking beer, eating pizza in their gonch & chucking darts at hockey cards.

  39. dustrock says:

    LT hard to argue with your look at McGregor. Lousy/rushed development probably made some of his picks look worse than they are.

    I’m actually happier about the pro scouts getting canned. Particularly their inability to find useful d-men has been a thorn in the Oilers growth and success since 2006.

  40. Tarkus says:

    Not sure if already posted, but here’s a good Sunday morning read about He Who Will Become An Oiler In Only FIVE MORE DAYS!!!!!!! Penned by Gare Joyce:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-connor-mcdavid-on-the-edge-of-superstardom/

  41. hunter1909 says:

    supernova: Absolutely don’t forget Tambo in that mix.

    Everyone connected/under Lowe+MacT might as well receive blame, save players: Sam Gagner, Sheldon Souray, Rob Schremp, Magnus Pajaarvi, Jani bloody Rita if you followed the LoweTeam since it’s earlier form. That was still the team that Sather built, is the latest information am getting. Is this true? Lowe basically inherited a half way okay team from Sather? I have no idea.

    Tambellini instantly gave the impression he was desperately seeking the Oilers GM position, and that Lowe+MacT were 100% in charge behind the scenes; ala Dubya with Dick Cheney etc.

  42. hunter1909 says:

    I’m certain there are people who can’t resist nit picking the Lowe/MacT way. Forget it. The entire fucking ERA anywhere between 1999-2015 is all Kevin Lowe and his Droogs: MacT merely being the Trustie inside the EIG/Rexall Prison state, lol.

  43. Ryan says:

    supernova: hunter1909,

    I did some work digging into Oilers draft picks comparable to other teams.
    MacGregors draft record was average to slightly above.
    Oilers development and pro-scouting were abysmal.

    When Oilers promoted Bob Green the writing was on the wall.

    When Nicholson made comments about draft picks, we knew heads would roll.

    I have seen a variety of posts defending the Oilers draft record and there’s a large oversight in all of them.

    The problem is that some sort of valuation is what’s missing…

    Here’s where I make my buddies GMoney and Woodguy cringe btw.

    How do you weigh the value of drafting say a Tyler Pitlick 31 overall who just might carve out his 100+ NHL games as a forth line energy player without a lick of offense…. Or even Anton Lander at 40 who looks like a decent bet to be a 3/4 c…

    Vs.

    Drafting a top pairing defender like TJ Brodie 114 overall?

    Or finding a potential 1LW Johnny hockey at 104?

    Now these are somewhat extreme examples since there’s a wild discrepancy in both draft position and spot in the line up between these two groups…

    Yet, if one scout drafts a large number of replacement level players, most analysis will show his draft record to be superior to someone who hits more home runs, but finds less players overall.

    I.e. Scout A finds a whopping 4 players per draft (over 4 draft years) outside of the first round who’re all at or below replacement level for the duration of their respective careers…

    Scout B finds a top pairing defender, top line winger, and a top four defensemen during that same period outside of the first round.

    Scout A blows the doors off of average and scout B doesn’t look so good.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan: I have seen a variety of posts defending the Oilers draft record and there’s a large oversight in all of them.

    The problem is that some sort of valuation is what’s missing…

    Here’s where I make my buddies GMoney and Woodguy cringe btw.

    How do you weigh the value of drafting say a Tyler Pitlick 31 overall who just might carve out his 100+ NHL games as a forth line energy player without a lick of offense….Or even Anton Lander at 40 who looks like a decent bet to be a 3/4 c…

    Vs.

    Drafting a top pairing defender like TJ Brodie 114 overall?

    Or finding a potential 1LW Johnny hockey at 104?

    Now these are somewhat extreme examples since there’s a wild discrepancy in both draft position and spot in the line up between these two groups…

    Yet, if one scout drafts a large number of replacement level players, most analysis will show his draft record to be superior to someone who hits more home runs, but finds less players overall.

    I.e. Scout A finds a whopping 4 players per draft (over 4 draft years) outside of the first round who’re all at or below replacement level for the duration of their respective careers…

    Scout B finds a top pairing defender, top line winger, and a top four defensemen during that same period outside of the first round.

    Scout A blows the doors off of average and scout B doesn’t look so good.

    Fully agree. Have always felt GPs is a poor metric in isolation for evaluating draft success.

    Especially with poor teams that lack depth and are thus forced to play their prospects in the bigs.

    Quality should trump quantity.

  45. RexLibris says:

    Hey LT,

    On MacGregor and your mea culpa for the Magnificent Bastard tag, I’m reminded of the line “you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain”.

    MacGregor stuck around long enough that his mistakes caught up to him. Your line was given early enough to become attached and in this age memories are long enough that anyone can be held to account for having an opinion.

    MacGregor was a heck of a lot better than Prendergast, in my opinion because he made bets when the stakes weren’t as high. He nailed the 1sts and that is what mattered. Betting long on the 2nds and 3rds may have killed him, but there were development and professional procurement problems along the way as well.

    All that said, I’m relieved that the team is pulling the plug now rather than hanging around for another four years as they did with Prendergast and Fraser.

    I have a great deal of trust in Bob Green and provided Chiarelli points him in the right direction and lets him work, I think it could work out alright.

  46. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: The worry about Paajarvi was offense, that remains the worry.

    And it’s possible that the unwillingness to go to the hard areas is why the offence suffered.

    Hockey is a man’s game and the areas where the massive majority of goals are scored are well known to all. Play it on the periphery and your production will likely suffer.

  47. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan: Drafting a top pairing defender like TJ Brodie 114 overall?
    Or finding a potential 1LW Johnny hockey at 104?
    Now these are somewhat extreme examples since there’s a wild discrepancy in both draft position and spot in the line up between these two groups…

    MacT coming within a hair of destroying Nail Yakupov via his “I’ll be judged on this decision” Marlies Freak who clearly knows as much about money as he did at NHL hockey.

    Simply the most incompetent, idiotic, nepotistic anthill of intrigue imaginable. There will be those who advocate “letting bygones be bygones” but MacT seems like the kind of guy who demands to be held to his word.

    Not Lowe. Does anyone see Lowe in person? Lowe lives in the shadows.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    @swedishposter

    Can you pls repost the link to your recent draft article?

    Didn’t have the time to read it the day you originally posted it and can’t locate it now in the earlier threads.

    thanks!

  49. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    Nice work Ryan. The way I see it, if you consistently draft BPA and establish strict criteria for EARNING NHL ice time, results come.

    The worlds most successful companies deploy a similar approach, it’s branded as Lean and Six Sigma (they’re different folks) but the premise is the same – stick to the process, but reflect often on it, watch it every day, and let your people take ownership of it and adjust it to meet the goals. The leaderships job is to do one thing, establish the goal and set the expectation to follow processes.

  50. fifthcartel says:

    Neate Sager ‏@NaitSAYger 9m9 minutes ago Ottawa, Ontario
    Hearing Kingston-based Kent Hawley, an @Ottawa67sHockey alum, was one of the scouts let go in Edmonton. #OHL #Oilers

  51. Kris11 says:

    My three cents:

    The best drafting strategy is to stay relatively close to the consensus McKenzie list pick through the first three rounds. After the third round everyone is gambling with nearly identical odds, and always low odds, of success. (Detroit going for Euro’s years ago may be an exception to that, but that was then and this is now.)

    Thus, you just need amateur scouts who don’t outsmart themselves and pick a Niiniiimaakiiiii. The rest is mostly luck. Thus the loss of MacGregor or the gain of adding someone different is almost inconsequential. IMO. Feel free to argue it.

    Amateur scouting is a bigger deal. And given who the Oilers have traded for and signed as UFA’s -broke foot Whitney, Crappybulin, Nikitikitavi, Ference, the list goes on- the Oilers might have the worst amateur scouts in human history. Thus changes there are monumentally important.

    So great news, all in all, according to me or whatever.

  52. hunter1909 says:

    Mtl-oiler: I would wait until we see what Chiarelli does before anointing him the savior of this franchise.

    His record is somewhat spotty.
    His salary cap management was bad.
    His draft record wasn’t much better or even worse than the guy he just fired.
    He’s made some great trades, Rask & Boychuck (coming) and some horrible ones, Seguin, Boychuck (going).

    He may be a great GM, I really hope he is, but let us see if has learnt from his past mistakes before giving him the GM of the year award.

    Chiarelli won a Cup. That’s music to this fans ears, and no, losing Game 7 doesn’t count for jack with me.

    Oilers are going to draft Connor Freaking McDavid.

  53. Chris says:

    Well LT I just want to echo what others have said that I don’t think you should feel bad about having coined the MBS moniker. When you applied the nickname it was meant as a compliment and many of the early returns for MBS’ drafting indeed looked promising. I also think that the organization’s blaming the drafting is to some extent a convenient scapegoat for how truly disgraceful the professional acquisitions have been, not to mention how awful the return on many trades our previous GMs have made have been. All of Cogliano, Gilbert, Petry and Visnovsky would have been beneficial to keep around long term. But naturally they were sent away for next to nothing.

  54. wheatnoil says:

    fifthcartel:
    Neate Sager ‏@NaitSAYger9m9 minutes ago Ottawa, Ontario
    Hearing Kingston-based Kent Hawley, an @Ottawa67sHockey alum, was one of the scouts let go in Edmonton. #OHL #Oilers

    Hawley was hired in 2005 and scouts the OHL, Northern US, and does a little bit of coverage in the Q, based on articles done by our own RexLibris (http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/5/24/who-are-the-oilers-best-scouts) and Jonathan Willis (http://www.coppernblue.com/2008/04/edmonton-oilers-scouting-staff.html).

  55. Snowman says:

    Tarkus:
    Not sure if already posted, but here’s a good Sunday morning read about He Who Will Become An Oiler In Only FIVE MORE DAYS!!!!!!!Penned by Gare Joyce:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-connor-mcdavid-on-the-edge-of-superstardom/

    Fantastic read.

  56. steveb12344 says:

    Kris11:

    Amateur scouting is a bigger deal. And given who the Oilers have traded for and signed as UFA’s -broke foot Whitney, Crappybulin, Nikitikitavi, Ference, the list goes on- the Oilers might have the worst amateur scouts in human history.

    I don’t think amateur scouting means what you think it means. 😉

  57. G Money says:

    Ryan: Here’s where I make my buddies GMoney and Woodguy cringe btw.

    Hmm, I’m not sure why this would make either of us cringe.

    I’m of the opinion that evaluating drafts is a ludicrously hard proposition to begin with, because you can’t really separate drafting from development. When we look at Detroit and their “drafting” record for example, I believe you’re looking primarily at the success of a development model. But we can’t ever know for sure.

    The work I have done on drafting (you’ll have to search C&B Fanposts), where I built draft success curves for F, D, and G, I used both ‘games played filter’ as well as ‘total games’ as metrics. The first would favour a scout who found 4 players x 201 games, while the latter would favour the scout who found 2 players x 500 games.

    No one metric works well, and even multiple ones don’t.

    Worse still, the average odds of success in a draft, whatever metric you use, are so low and have such small samples (7 picks on average per year), that assessing team draft records is a fools game.

    Just as a lark, using the success probabilities I came up with, I ran a casual Monte Carlo simulation to compare two theoretical scouting teams, one with 10% greater success probability than the other (which is pretty substantial if you think about it – Vegas runs on a 2% edge!). In order to have a statistically valid result demonstrating that the +10% scout was better than the other, you had to run the simulation out to hundreds of years. Hundreds!

    And we compare the results of five or ten years and declare that one team is better than the other.

    A Bayesian method for assessing scouting results might work a lot better, but I haven’t yet built my understanding of Bayesian statistics to the point where I could try applying it (another of a zillion items on my todo list).

    So I’m avoiding the draft and sticking to “easy” topics, like goalies!

  58. Ben says:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 4m4 minutes ago

    Further to GM P.Chiarelli’s reorganization of EDM’s scouting dept, amateur scouts Brad Davis (West) and Kent Hawley (Ont.) also let go. …

    As an aside – isn’t is unusual to let these guys go right before the draft, when intel could potentially be shared?

  59. Kris11 says:

    steveb12344,

    D’oh! I meant pro scouting.

    Hodor!

  60. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    @swedishposter

    Can you pls repost the link to your recent draft article?

    Didn’t have the time to read it the day you originally posted it and can’t locate it now in the earlier threads.

    thanks!

    It is here:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/15/guest-columnist-the-most-thorough-draft-analysis-you-will-ever-read/

    SwedishPoster sent me a followup article yesterday where he applies his methodology, but as I was working on the goalie article, I haven’t had a chance to read it yet.

    Will get that posted as soon as I can.

  61. square_wheels says:

    Kris11,

    Haha !! It just occurred to me, we didn’t see Hodor on GoT this season ! Hodor and 42 are my go to answers when I don’t understand a question.

  62. LMHF#1 says:

    Gmoney – missed it in another thread: I’m not a huge fan of Ference off the ice either.

  63. Hammers says:

    Head Scout or GM who made the decisions ! That’s been part of the problem for 10 years

  64. Radiusofnerdature says:

    As an aside – isn’t is unusual to let these guys go right before the draft, when intel could potentially be shared?

    Maybe battle lines were being drawn in the sand and someone with control got angry. Who knows? But the timing is absolutely confusing.

  65. RexLibris says:

    If the NHL expands beyond 30 teams, is Friedman contractually obligated to include more thoughts in his weekly release?

  66. RexLibris says:

    : As an aside – isn’t is unusual to let these guys go right before the draft, when intel could potentially be shared?

    This was discussed on last night’s thread.

    Presumably these guys all sign NDAs and the like and their information is locked up pretty tight.

    That being said, if a GM really wanted to buy these guys a beer and pick their brain off the record, it begs the question, what about the Oilers’ drafting record over the past ten years would encourage a manager to bother?

  67. Death By Misadventure says:

    Ladies and Gents,

    Does anyone know where I can find a good quality live stream of the NHL draft on Friday? Any chance TSN or Sportsnet are streaming it off their websites?

    I want to watch the draft from the middle-east so I’ll be joining you starting at 2am on Saturday.

    Woot! Woot!

    Thanks in advance.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money: It is here:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/15/guest-columnist-the-most-thorough-draft-analysis-you-will-ever-read/

    SwedishPoster sent me a followup article yesterday where he applies his methodology, but as I was working on the goalie article, I haven’t had a chance to read it yet.

    Will get that posted as soon as I can.

    Thanks much

  69. Bryan says:

    Radiusofnerdature,

    Radiusofnerdature,

    I think it is reasonable to assume that there was some sort of disconnect amongst the brain trust in charge of the draft. Bob Green has said that it would be a group effort to formulate a draft strategy but if it became obvious that everyone was not on the same page then a change would become necessary sooner rather than later. I merely speculate but I see it as the only reason why this action would be taken now rather than to let Stu sail away gracefully later on when no one really notices.

  70. square_wheels says:

    LMHF#1,

    ??? Care to share his off ice persona and why it’s not agreeable to you ?

  71. spoiler says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Ladies and Gents,

    Does anyone know where I can find a good quality live stream of the NHL draft on Friday? Any chance TSN or Sportsnet are streaming it off their websites?

    I want to watch the draft from the middle-east so I’ll be joining you starting at 2am on Saturday.

    Woot! Woot!

    Thanks in advance.

    I think you will have to pull it off NBC. Which means one of those European sports streaming sites is likely to have it.

  72. RexLibris says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Ladies and Gents,

    Does anyone know where I can find a good quality live stream of the NHL draft on Friday? Any chance TSN or Sportsnet are streaming it off their websites?

    I want to watch the draft from the middle-east so I’ll be joining you starting at 2am on Saturday.

    Woot! Woot!

    Thanks in advance.

    I had heard that TSN wasn’t covering the draft because SportsNet had included that in their TV rights. Not sure if that is accurate, but if so we can look forward to 15 minutes of musings by Damien Cox immediately following the Oilers’ pick on why McDavid will rush through his ELC with the Oilers so he can return to Toronto.

  73. wheatnoil says:

    Spector reports that more scouting staff changes are expected.

    So far it’s head amateur scout, head pro scout and two OHL scouts who are gone. We’ll have to see who’s left standing.

  74. spoiler says:

    Interesting trivia…

    Grant McCagg ‏@grantmccagg · Jun 20

    I do believe 8 teams (ARI BUF CLB CGY EDM NJ OTT PHI) hold 47.5 per cent of the picks (29) in the first 2 rounds. #pivotaldraft

  75. Connorrhea says:

    I’d like to begin this post with an apology to Stu MacGregor. As David Staples’ tweet from December beautifully illustrates, I did more damage than good to the scouting director’s reputation and for that I’m sincerely sorry.

    I’ve never read an unfair word from you, LT, and to be even more fair, you were critiquing the Oilers scouting department, not just Stu.

    MBS knew who he was working for. When Tambi, MacT, or Katz over-rules him, it’s going to look bad from out here, because that’s the stuff we never hear about.

  76. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil:
    Spector reports that more scouting staff changes are expected.

    So far it’s head amateur scout, head pro scout and two OHL scouts who are gone. We’ll have to see who’s left standing.

    1 Ontario, 1 West amateur scout:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 4m4 minutes ago

    Further to GM P.Chiarelli’s reorganization of EDM’s scouting dept, amateur scouts Brad Davis (West) and Kent Hawley (Ont.) also let go

  77. RexLibris says:

    spoiler:
    Interesting trivia…

    Grant McCagg ‏@grantmccagg· Jun 20

    I do believe 8 teams (ARI BUF CLB CGY EDM NJ OTT PHI) hold 47.5 per cent of the picks (29) in the first 2 rounds. #pivotaldraft

    I’m suddenly inspired to review draft histories and see the rate of draft pick monopolization year-over-year to determine if there has been a trend or cycle in the trading of draft picks.

    Recall how seemingly easily they were thrown around in 2013, a year considered deep by all accounts, and then their value tanked in 2014 only to seemingly rebound this past year.

    I wonder if the fact that so many teams have so many picks this year affects a team’s willingness to part with one next year, or maybe even raises the relative value of one at next year’s deadline?

  78. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: 1 Ontario, 1 West amateur scout:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 4m4 minutes ago

    Further to GM P.Chiarelli’s reorganization of EDM’s scouting dept, amateur scouts Brad Davis (West) and Kent Hawley (Ont.) also let go

    Just hoping they keep Frank Musil and some of the European scouts on the payroll. I’ve been relatively happy with their work thus far.

  79. RexLibris says:

    In CFL news, just getting caught up with the cuts from yesterday.

    Goltz, P. Jackson and Ramsay all cut. With Ramsay out I think that means Beard and Groulx impressed Jones at camp enough to stick around a little longer.

    Gord Hinse was cut by the ‘Riders. I don’t think he comes back to the Eskimos, but he seems to be too good and young an O-lineman to be out of work long.

    Also finally had time to review the stats from the last pre-season game and I’m really liking Franklin. He impressed me in the first game, but this one he seems to have improved even more so.

  80. G Money says:

    Just a followup on some comments in the earlier thread about Talbot’s sv% volatility.

    Just out of curiosity, I loaded up the game by game EV sv% of two young goalies, Talbot and Lack, into my analysis system and did two things, ran descriptive statistics and histograms:

    count 57.000000
    mean 93.387544
    std 6.117590
    min 66.670000
    25% 90.000000
    50% 94.740000
    75% 96.970000
    max 100.000000
    Name: Talbot Sv%, dtype: float64

    Talbot histogram: http://i.imgur.com/Iws0iYD.png

    count 82.000000
    mean 92.278537
    std 6.119825
    min 75.000000
    25% 88.890000
    50% 92.310000
    75% 96.487500
    max 100.000000
    Name: Lack Sv%, dtype: float64

    Lack histogram: http://i.imgur.com/g8zQEwc.png

    Personally, I don’t see much difference. The stdev in particular is surprisingly close.

    Maybe I’ll take a wider look if I get a chance, but gotta take the twins to Laser Quest for a kids birthday party (hosted by the neighboring ridings MLA, who seems like a genuinely nice guy, contrasted with the young homophobic metal queen for my riding).

  81. Jon K says:

    Connorrhea:
    I’d like to begin this post with an apology to Stu MacGregor. As David Staples’ tweet from December beautifully illustrates, I did more damage than good to the scouting director’s reputation and for that I’m sincerely sorry.

    I’ve never read an unfair word from you, LT, and to be even more fair, you were critiquing the Oilers scouting department, not just Stu.

    MBS knew who he was working for. When Tambi, MacT, or Katz over-rules him, it’s going to look bad from out here, because that’s the stuff we never hear about.

    We are never going to be privy to the discussions leading to the selection of contentious picks.

    All we can assume is that MacGregor’s dismissal included a review of his recommendations for and against players.

    We don’t have enough information or expertise to say whether MBS’ dismissal was a good decision. However, looking at his draft record there is enough evidence to conclude that Chiarelli’s decision yesterday was not an unreasonable one.

    That’s an overly wordy way of saying I don’t know that this was a bad decision. That said, I have no doubt that Stu will find work, shortly.

  82. wheatnoil says:

    spoiler: 1 Ontario, 1 West amateur scout:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 4m4 minutes ago

    Further to GM P.Chiarelli’s reorganization of EDM’s scouting dept, amateur scouts Brad Davis (West) and Kent Hawley (Ont.) also let go

    Spector was mistaken. Corrected here…

    Brad Davis was Ontario-based scout for Oilers, of course. Family is in Regina. My mistake.— Mark Spector (@SportsnetSpec) June 21, 2015

  83. Jon K says:

    G Money:
    Just a followup on some comments in the earlier thread about Talbot’s sv% volatility.

    Just out of curiosity, I loaded up the game by game EV sv% of two young goalies, Talbot and Lack, into my analysis system and did two things, ran descriptive statistics and histograms:

    count 57.000000
    mean93.387544
    std6.117590
    min 66.670000
    25% 90.000000
    50% 94.740000
    75% 96.970000
    max100.000000
    Name: Talbot Sv%, dtype: float64

    Talbot histogram: http://i.imgur.com/Iws0iYD.png

    count 82.000000
    mean92.278537
    std6.119825
    min 75.000000
    25% 88.890000
    50% 92.310000
    75% 96.487500
    max100.000000
    Name: Lack Sv%, dtype: float64

    Lack histogram: http://i.imgur.com/g8zQEwc.png

    Personally, I don’t see much difference.The stdev in particular is surprisingly close.

    Maybe I’ll take a wider look if I get a chance, but gotta take the twins to Laser Quest for a kids birthday party (hosted by the neighboring ridings MLA, who seems like a genuinely nice guy, contrasted with the young homophobic metal queen for my riding).

    To be honest, given the high demand for Talbot and apparently low demand for Lack, I think that Lack for a second rounder probably makes more sense than Talbot for possibly two high picks and a prospect like Marincin.

    All things considered, I don’t understand why Vancouver would move Lack over Markstrom or Miller. He’s the only guy in that threesome I’d be trying to keep moving forward.

  84. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil: Spector was mistaken. Corrected here…

    Beauty, thank you for the source.

  85. sliderule says:

    Macgregor’s draft record after the first overalls and high first picks was in the bottom third of the nhl..

    He was a product of bad management. He was hired from within without interviews of other candidates.

    The oilers then let him stay in the boonies rather than relocate to Edmonton were he could have been in daily contact with the GM and other staff.

    Ever since I started to post on this site I have been calling for a change which had to start at his level .

    When Chia fired his Bruin head scout and replaced him with Gretsky he commented that he was a good scout just not a good head scout.I think that comment hit the mark with Stu.

  86. HeyJakel says:

    LT:

    I’m late to the party on this one but think you’ve got the wrong draft spot for Marincin – he was 46, not 56.

  87. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    G Money:
    I’m of the opinion that evaluating drafts is a ludicrously hard proposition to begin with, because you can’t really separate drafting from development. When we look at Detroit and their “drafting” record for example, I believe you’re looking primarily at the success of a development model. But we can’t ever know for sure.

    I couldn’t agree with your entire post more strongly. I didn’t even need to code up a Monte Carlo. I knew on instinct the answer was somewhere between 30 and 100 years because small samples tapering into very thin tails.

    Furthermore, we don’t know what was said in the room during discussion in past years or which scouts set themselves up through their vocal contributions as the walkabout kingpins.

    How the selections worked out is probably only half the internal review equation. Another big one would be “when the players you draft show up, are they actually the people your scouts told you they would be?” Is the hard worker actually a hard worker? Is the quick study actually a quick study? A good scouting report goes beyond draft day. It’s also the first step in setting up the right development process for each prospect.

    I would have my scouts write three half-page development stories for each prospect they strongly tout: exceeds expectations, meets expectations, falls short of expectations. Then I would pay a lot of attention to how well my scouts projected the development process for their favoured picks.

    Here’s the gold star version of the “falls short” for Sam Gagner:

    Despite his extraordinary hockey IQ, he somehow never manages to pick up the trick of turning his head in the defensive zone and plateaus as a 40-point center with severe defensive liabilities that subtracts as much as he brings.

    If you’ve got that in hand as your Sam Gagner “worry” report on draft day, your scout was doing his job properly.

    So I don’t think the actual selections are even the whole story.

  88. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris: I’m suddenly inspired to review draft histories and see the rate of draft pick monopolization year-over-year to determine if there has been a trend or cycle in the trading of draft picks.

    Recall how seemingly easily they were thrown around in 2013, a year considered deep by all accounts, and then their value tanked in 2014 only to seemingly rebound this past year.

    I wonder if the fact that so many teams have so many picks this year affects a team’s willingness to part with one next year, or maybe even raises the relative value of one at next year’s deadline?

    I believe we also need to account for the idea that this draft may be significantly affected by the movement of players from cap strapped teams.

    Two other issues I think will be that the Leafs may be trading Kessel, Phanuef, Bozak, Lupul and,perhapps Van Riemsdy and will likely be receiving picks if any or all of those players can be moved.

    The other thing is that Arizona sits $19M under the cap floor and not only has to sign enough players to make it, they are also in a position to make draft day trades to help with that process.

    I expect you’ll see Bettman at the podium early and often with his “we have a trade to announce” far more frequently than in past seasons.

  89. flyfish1168 says:

    G Money:
    Just a followup on some comments in the earlier thread about Talbot’s sv% volatility.

    Just out of curiosity, I loaded up the game by game EV sv% of two young goalies, Talbot and Lack, into my analysis system and did two things, ran descriptive statistics and histograms:

    count 57.000000
    mean93.387544
    std6.117590
    min 66.670000
    25% 90.000000
    50% 94.740000
    75% 96.970000
    max100.000000
    Name: Talbot Sv%, dtype: float64

    Talbot histogram: http://i.imgur.com/Iws0iYD.png

    count 82.000000
    mean92.278537
    std6.119825
    min 75.000000
    25% 88.890000
    50% 92.310000
    75% 96.487500
    max100.000000
    Name: Lack Sv%, dtype: float64

    Lack histogram: http://i.imgur.com/g8zQEwc.png

    Personally, I don’t see much difference.The stdev in particular is surprisingly close.

    Maybe I’ll take a wider look if I get a chance, but gotta take the twins to Laser Quest for a kids birthday party (hosted by the neighboring ridings MLA, who seems like a genuinely nice guy, contrasted with the young homophobic metal queen for my riding).

    Hey G Money

    I still prefer Ramo. He got stronger as the season went along. excellent in the playoffs and we don’t need to give anything for him. I don’t think we would have to over pay by any significant amount. JMHO

  90. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    Agree 100%. In all the excitement of the Oiler news, the CFL season is kind of under the radar.

    But I watched both Esks ps games and I’m pumped to see what happens this season!

  91. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Here’s where I struggle with that, though.

    It seems there are almost more cap-strapped teams than teams with enough room to accommodate the contract dumps unless the sell-off is far below value.

    The Flames could absorb Kessel and Chara both and still be below the cap, for example, but what would they offer up in return? 2nd or 3rd round picks, Jooris, Granlund, next year’s picks, Ferland, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Kulak, Jankowski, Deblouw, Russell, Jones? How much of any of that would the Rangers, Bruins, Blackhawks or some other similarly cap-strapped team actually want in return?

    The Sabres and Flames have cap space and picks and prospects to forfeit, but both seem committed to the long-term build through the draft. It will be interesting to see how things shape up.

    Maybe Buffalo takes Semin for a late 1st and salary retained or some such arrangement?

  92. G Money says:

    flyfish1168,

    Just be wary – goalies early are volatile, and that means up too. His mediocre results at the benchmark level, given the low variance to later results, suggest it may just be a bump, soon to revert.

    No guarantees, just probabilities, but enough to make me nervous.

  93. Lowetide says:

    HeyJakel:
    LT:

    I’m late to the party on this one but think you’ve got the wrong draft spot for Marincin – he was 46, not 56.

    Damn! I’m always doing that! Fixed, and thanks.

  94. Pouzar says:

    Speaking of CFL…all you bleeding hearts will be pleased to hear I am a closet Bombers fan.
    **** you JETS.
    I’m from NL…so I’ll let you guess what CFL team I adopted as a 7 yr old. 🙂

  95. Marc says:

    Ryan: I have seen a variety of posts defending the Oilers draft record and there’s a large oversight in all of them.

    The problem is that some sort of valuation is what’s missing…

    Here’s where I make my buddies GMoney and Woodguy cringe btw.

    How do you weigh the value of drafting say a Tyler Pitlick 31 overall who just might carve out his 100+ NHL games as a forth line energy player without a lick of offense….Or even Anton Lander at 40 who looks like a decent bet to be a 3/4 c…

    Vs.

    Drafting a top pairing defender like TJ Brodie 114 overall?

    Or finding a potential 1LW Johnny hockey at 104?

    Now these are somewhat extreme examples since there’s a wild discrepancy in both draft position and spot in the line up between these two groups…

    Yet, if one scout drafts a large number of replacement level players, most analysis will show his draft record to be superior to someone who hits more home runs, but finds less players overall.

    I.e. Scout A finds a whopping 4 players per draft (over 4 draft years) outside of the first round who’re all at or below replacement level for the duration of their respective careers…

    Scout B finds a top pairing defender, top line winger, and a top four defensemen during that same period outside of the first round.

    Scout A blows the doors off of average and scout B doesn’t look so good.

    The value of assessing a team’s drafting by reference to number of players that play 100 or 200 games is that you have an objective standard against which to compare the drafting. We know, based on a decent sample size ie. decades worth of drafitng, the percentage of picks in each round that have historically hit that number of games played. So we can judged the team based on whether it is getting at least the number of NHL players out of its drafting that history says it should be getting.

    It is similar to investment funds. 3/4 of actively managed funds perform worse than a fund that simply tracks the market the movement of the market as a whole. So when you’re assessing a particular actively managed fund, the first and most important question you need to ask is whether it’s at least performing as well as the market itself is.

    Stu is like a fund that more or less matches the performance of the market. He’s been a bit better than average at first round picks, and a bit worse in the later rounds. That is vastly superior to a fund that underperforms the market ie. that regularly misses on first round picks. But it’s obviously inferior to that top quartile of funds that actually beat the market ie. teams that get good/very good players out of their later picks, rather than journeymen.

    There is certainly a case for firing him and trying to get into the top quartile so to speak. But it’s worth remembering that lots of teams don’t even manage to hit for average. There is a degree of risk when you walk away from someone who has shown he can.

  96. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Speaking of CFL…all you bleeding hearts will be pleased to hear I am a closet Bombers fan.
    **** you JETS.
    I’m from NL…so I’ll let you guess what CFL team I adopted as a 7 yr old.

    Bomber huh.

    Wow. Where do I send the gift basket and flowers?

    I still haven’t forgiven them for the drubbing Burgess gave us back in ’90. 50-11. I carry the scars to this very day.

    Some great history there, though. I may hold some grudges from the past but I respect the Bombers, the team, not the organization. Being a Bomber fan seems kind of like being a Mets fan – you’re in it for one of two reasons: birth or love, because there isn’t enough money in the world to make you do it otherwise.

    I remember a great story about how the Bombers got their name. Allegedly is was around the time of Joe Louis as the Brown Bomber, and Vince Leah of the Tribune borrowed it calling them the Blue Bombers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg_Blue_Bombers#Beginning

  97. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Damn! I’m always doing that! Fixed, and thanks.

    LT, why do you hate Marincin?

  98. thejonrmcleod says:

    What’s the CFL? Are you talking about those fluorescent light bulbs?

  99. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    Agree 100%.In all the excitement of the Oiler news, the CFL season is kind of under the radar.

    But I watched both Esks ps games and I’m pumped to see what happens this season!

    I noticed that BC had quite a few of their starters in the rotation as well. Those weren’t all practice roster players he was playing against.

  100. RexLibris says:

    Because I think we have a few Classics geeks in the crowd around here, and because it contains some relevant comparisons to our own epistemological arguments surrounding crowd-sourced analytics vs. traditional hockey paradigms: http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jun/20/classics-for-the-people-ancient-greeks

  101. RexLibris says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    What’s the CFL? Are you talking about those fluorescentlight bulbs?

    In 1977 Hugh Campbell founded a football league in Canada centered around the flagship franchise in Edmonton. The inaugural championship, called the Grey Cup to celebrate the colour of the Edmonton sky on most November days, was awarded to the Montreal Alouettes in order to ensure that the Eastern Media would buy into the experiment. The following five championships were awarded to the Edmonton Eskimos, as per the league charter. The league came to be known as the CFL, or Campbell Football League.

    League charters were later re-written and relaxed following those five championships to allow for other, lesser clubs such as Calgary and Saskatchewan to win the championship on occasion.

    *That one’s for you, Pouzar! 😉

  102. Woogie63 says:

    We hear hockey people talk about the process. Every great scout has a great player development team AND a great ECHL/AHL team and an NHL team that only absorbs one or two young players a year AND great training staff that gets injured players to their peak AND a NHL coaching staff that does not have to rush all the prior years of prep with crazy ice time.

    The next guy is likely to fail as well.

  103. Halfwise says:

    Just watching the US Open golf tournament. A lot of it looks like out-takes and bloopers, unfortunately.

    Old Colin Montgomerie is just finishing up, about 14 over par, and I just had a disturbing thought. Has anyone seen him and the equally svelte Laura Davies in the same place at the same time?

  104. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Marc,

    The games played metric is good not great. Unfortunately it has been easier to get to 100 on the Oilers than the Blackhawks. Christ, look
    At how many games Petrell played for this team. On most clubs in the league it would have been less than 10.

  105. Dashingsilverfox says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    Agree 100%.In all the excitement of the Oiler news, the CFL season is kind of under the radar.

    But I watched both Esks ps games and I’m pumped to see what happens this season!

    The CFL may be tempted to award the Grey Cup to the Calgary Stampeders at the season kickoff next week.

    They were dominant last season and are even stronger now.

  106. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Marc,

    The games played metric is good not great. Unfortunately it has been easier to get to 100 on the Oilers than the Blackhawks. Christ, look
    At how many games Petrell played for this team. On most clubs in the league it would have been less than 10.

    Exactly.

    Had, say, Magnus Paajarvi been drafted by the Blues, I would expect his overall games played would be far less than the 228 he gets credit for.

  107. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Don’t forget where she likes to store bottles G !!

  108. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Just a followup on some comments in the earlier thread about Talbot’s sv% volatility.

    Just out of curiosity, I loaded up the game by game EV sv% of two young goalies, Talbot and Lack, into my analysis system and did two things, ran descriptive statistics and histograms:

    count 57.000000
    mean93.387544
    std6.117590
    min 66.670000
    25% 90.000000
    50% 94.740000
    75% 96.970000
    max100.000000
    Name: Talbot Sv%, dtype: float64

    Talbot histogram: http://i.imgur.com/Iws0iYD.png

    count 82.000000
    mean92.278537
    std6.119825
    min 75.000000
    25% 88.890000
    50% 92.310000
    75% 96.487500
    max100.000000
    Name: Lack Sv%, dtype: float64

    Lack histogram: http://i.imgur.com/g8zQEwc.png

    Personally, I don’t see much difference.The stdev in particular is surprisingly close.

    Maybe I’ll take a wider look if I get a chance, but gotta take the twins to Laser Quest for a kids birthday party (hosted by the neighboring ridings MLA, who seems like a genuinely nice guy, contrasted with the young homophobic metal queen for my riding).

    Another look at goaltenders, especially Talbot.

    Ive done this a few times. Looked at a goalies save % from the low, medium and high danger areas and plugged in Oiler shots against.

    Oiler shots against save% all situations, parathesis is actual
    Carey.Price_0.929__(0.933)
    Cam.Talbot_0.922__(0.926)
    Eddie.Lack_0.921___(0.921)
    Craig.Ander_0.912__(0.923)
    Antti.Niemi__0.911__(0.914)
    Michal.Neuvi_0.910 _(0.914)
    Cam.Ward__0.905__(0.910)
    Jhonas.Enro_0.901__(0.904)
    Robin.Lehner 0.900__(0.905)

    Talbots numbers take a bit of a hit, 0.04 less,

    Some say that Talbot played in front of a pretty team defense.

    Percentage of shots against from the low danger area ( shots per game)
    oilers 42% ( 12.58)
    rangers 48% (14.4) with Talbot in net
    league avg 45% (13.45)

    percentage of shots against from the medium danger area
    oilers 28% (8.23)
    rangers 23% (6.95) with Talbot in net
    league avg 27% (8)

    percentage of shots against from the high danger area
    oilers 30% (9.11)
    rangers 28% (8.36) with Talbot in net
    league avg 28% (8.35)

    From this metric, the Rangers D were above league average. If I remember correctly they were around the 10th best defensive team in some of my earlier works, Oilers were 24th,25th. So yeah, Talbot played behind a decent defensive team.

    AsiaOil in another post, brought up some interesting tidbits about Talbot

    “I also looked at his performance in 14-15 using his record against top 10/average/bottom 10 teams based on standings and the bimodal effect was consistent. Talbot against top 10 teams was .931 in 13 starts – but .885 in 6 worst starts and .962 in 7 best starts. Against middle ranks teams he was .926 in 9 starts – but .895 in 4 worst starts and .965 in 5 best starts. Against bottom ranked teams he was .927 in 14 starts – but .881 in 7 worst starts and .969 in 7 best starts. With this instability it’s no surprising that NYR gave him very few starts down the stretch and none in the playoffs –”

    This fits right into my quality starts red flag about Talbot. This past year Talbot started 34 games and had 17 quality starts. So for the year his quality start % was 50%. Over 60% is really good, 53% is average, below 50% is poor. So what I did is that I went through all of Talbots games and plugged the oiler shots against %’s from all locations in all of Talbots games ,but I kept Talbots save % from each location from each game the same as was in that game.

    What happens in this model is that he allows 5 more goals from the 77 he let in this year. Not much, but it does 2 things.

    1. It lowers his goals saved above average from 12 in the year, down to 7. Still puts him in the top 20 and he was in the lower end of playing time. So this is still favorable. Heck, most goalies take a beating when plugging in oilers shots against.

    2. He loses 1 quality start. Now he has 16 in 34 games. Which brings his quality start % to 47%. This isn’t favorable. Even without my work, if you look at AsiaOils work, this is a very up and down goalie. If he was not a very consistent goalie in front of the Rangers D, how would he look in front of the oilers team defence? Also, is a goalie that is very up and down in his play from game to game, good for a young team that has witnessed goaltending self implode many games the last two years?

    These are just some things to ponder.

    End result is this. While there are some numbers like save %, oilers shots against save% and goals saved above average that we can look at that prove that Talbot could definitely be a bonafide number 1 starter, there are also some numbers ( quality starts and game to game play ) that disprove that notion.

    Right now, I’ll say this, I’ll be excited and nervous if we end up with Talbot. I’m not sure if he is a starter or just a good backup. And we wont know until ( if) PC trades for him.

  109. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Here’s where I struggle with that, though.

    It seems there are almost more cap-strapped teams than teams with enough room to accommodate the contract dumps unless the sell-off is far below value.

    The Flames could absorb Kessel and Chara both and still be below the cap, for example, but what would they offer up in return? 2nd or 3rd round picks, Jooris, Granlund, next year’s picks, Ferland, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Kulak, Jankowski, Deblouw, Russell, Jones? How much of any of that would the Rangers, Bruins, Blackhawks or some other similarly cap-strapped team actually want in return?

    The Sabres and Flames have cap space and picks and prospects to forfeit, but both seem committed to the long-term build through the draft. It will be interesting to see how things shape up.

    Maybe Buffalo takes Semin for a late 1st and salary retained or some such arrangement?

    Arizona has $37M in free cap space and a ton of prospects.

    Dallas has $15M in free cap space and a ton of prospects.

    Anaheim has almost $20M and a ton pf prospects.

    Those are just among the teams you didn’t mention.

    There are others.

    There’s a chance for a lot of trade action this week.

  110. Marc says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Marc,

    The games played metric is good not great. Unfortunately it has been easier to get to 100 on the Oilers than the Blackhawks. Christ, look
    At how many games Petrell played for this team. On most clubs in the league it would have been less than 10.

    Agreed. It shouldn’t be the be all and end all.

    But it is useful. So much analysis of drafting is subjective – whether a pick was a ‘reach’ or ‘value’, whether a pick was justified at the time. Inserting an objective standard into the mix is a useful part of the puzzle.

  111. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Marc,

    Agreed.

  112. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: Bomber huh.

    Wow. Where do I send the gift basket and flowers?

    I still haven’t forgiven them for the drubbing Burgess gave us back in ’90. 50-11. I carry the scars to this very day.

    Some great history there, though. I may hold some grudges from the past but I respect the Bombers, the team, not the organization. Being a Bomber fan seems kind of like being a Mets fan – you’re in it for one of two reasons: birth or love, because there isn’t enough money in the world to make you do it otherwise.

    I remember a great story about how the Bombers got their name. Allegedly is was around the time of Joe Louis as the Brown Bomber, and Vince Leah of the Tribune borrowed it calling them the Blue Bombers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg_Blue_Bombers#Beginning

    Ha ha…there’s a lot in there folks…yer a beauty Rex!

    RexLibris: In 1977 Hugh Campbell founded a football league in Canada centered around the flagship franchise in Edmonton. The inaugural championship, called the Grey Cup to celebrate the colour of the Edmonton sky on most November days, was awarded to the Montreal Alouettes in order to ensure that the Eastern Media would buy into the experiment. The following five championships were awarded to the Edmonton Eskimos, as per the league charter. The league came to be known as the CFL, or Campbell Football League.

    League charters were later re-written and relaxed following those five championships to allow for other, lesser clubs such as Calgary and Saskatchewan to win the championship on occasion.

    *That one’s for you, Pouzar!

    I respond to these posts as I read them. Just wow! LMAO.

  113. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The CFL may be tempted to award the Grey Cup to the Calgary Stampeders at the season kickoff next week.

    They were dominant last season and are even stronger now.

    Imagine if they drafted Sam Bennett.

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