MATH AND THE DRAFT

One of the things analytics folks are faced with is the idea they love the numbers more than the game. I’ve spoken enough with ‘math people’ to know that isn’t true, they do in fact value the visual. For anyone who seriously follows the draft, ‘saw him good’ is a major part of the equation. Why? Skating isn’t just ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ or ‘first step quickness’ there are all kinds of gears in between. A kid with hands is going to score goals, but how is he scoring them? Cashing from the slot via a gifted center, or contributing to the success of the goal before the final shot? Can he check? Can he skate backwards? On it goes.

‘Saw him good’ types are warming to the idea of math, or at least from what I’ve seen. One ‘math’ item most people can agree on is the value of even-strength scoring. If you can post good numbers at even strength, chances are you’re going to be successful. Here are the EV scoring numbers (by CHL league) for the top draft eligible offensive players in this year’s draft (courtesy CHL stats):

OHL (17 yr olds)

  1. Connor McDavid 47GP, 32-40-72 1.53
  2. Dylan Strome 68GP, 31-48-79 1.16
  3. Mitch Marner 63GP, 25-37-62 .980
  4. Travis Konecny 60GP, 22-26-48 .800
  5. Dante Salituro 68GP, 23-27-50 .740
  6. Blake Speers 57GP, 14-25-39 .680

QMJHL (17 yr olds)

  1. Dmytro Timashev 66GP, 12-52-64 .970
  2. Evgeny Svechnikov 55GP, 22-30-52 .950
  3. Timo Meier 61GP, 19-33-52 .850
  4. Yakov Trenin 58Gp, 12-33-45 .780
  5. Kay Schweri 53GP, 7-32-39 .740
  6. Filip Chlapik 64GP, 23-22-45 .700
  7. Dennis Yan 59GP, 23-18-41 .690
  8. Daniel Sprong 68GP, 22-24-46 .680

WHL (17 yr olds)

  1. Mathew Barzal 44GP, 9-25-34 .770
  2. Paul Bittner 66GP, 23-26-49 .740
  3. Jansen Harkins 70GP, 16-36-52 .740
  4. Jake DeBrusk 72GP, 26-23-49 .680

That’s 19 players who have scored .68/game or more in the CHL this season. There are some fantastic kids in the draft this year (Leon Draisaitl was .920 in 2013-14, Sam Bennett was 1.04). I don’t know what the Edmonton Oilers would do with this information, but we do have some reason to believe they’re looking at numbers that may help them identify hidden gems.

The top end guys we know about, they’re established and NHL teams will have had plenty of eyes on them. From the list above, I’d like to know about Dante Salituro, Blake Speers, Dmytro Timashev, Yakov Trenin, Kay Schweri. Why are those men ranked so low? WHY? Here’s how I ranked them on my final list:

  • No. 27 Blake Speers
  • No. 49 Dmytro Timashov
  • No. 84 Dante Salituro
  • No. 87 Yakov Trenin
  • No. 116 Kay Schweri

If you’re the Oilers, and these are the players you’ve identified via your math template, it’s probably a good idea to crosscheck with your scouts. If the QMJHL scout hasn’t listed Timashov as an example, it probably behooves you to ask why. If the answer is ‘he’s too small’ then the organization has to make a decision based on their own priorities. Maybe the Oilers have decided they don’t need any more small forwards (a mistake) and want to pursue only big, physical players (also a mistake). We’ll know by Saturday noon. The five players above are a universal tell for all 30 teams: Who gets it, who does not?

WATCH THE GAMES, NERD!

There are 60 (SIXTY!) teams in the CHL, so watching games and finding nuance and hitches is a full time job times (at least) three for each CHL league. I’ve heard scouts say “lots of talent but I wouldn’t take him” which sounds kind of crazy but depends on the reason. If the young man can’t skate then that’s a deal breaker. If he’s shy in the corners? I don’t know. Is that fixable? I don’t honestly recall Ray Whitney knocking people over but he was effective for over 1300 NHL games. I guess what I’m saying is some sins (speed) are more impactful than others (perimeter player) and that has to be factored in to the final number. I’m not saying draft 10 wallflowers but value is value. Let’s have a look (again via CHL stats) at least year’s group to see what we can see:

OHL (17 year olds)

  1. Sam Bennett 1.04
  2. Robby Fabbri .970
  3. Nikolay Goldobin .910
  4. Josh Ho-Sang .900
  5. Spencer Watson .850
  6. Nick Ritchie .750
  7. Michael Dal Colle .730
  8. Michael Bunting .650
  9. Andrew Mangiapane .630

QMJHL (17 year olds)

  1. Nikolaj Ehlers .920
  2. Vladimir Tkachev .800
  3. Ivan Barbashev .750
  4. Conor Garland .650

WHL (17 year olds)

  1. Sam Reinhart .950
  2. Leon Draisaitl .920
  3. Jayce Hawryluk .750
  4. Nikita Scherbak .740
  5. Chase De Leo .740
  6. Jake Virtanen .720
  7. Brayden Point .720
  8. John Quenneville .640

Mangiapane and Garland were not drafted but will be this year. Would Edmonton be better off today if they had passed on Liam Coughlin and Keven Bouchard, while selecting those two prospects? The answer is yes.

 OILERS PICKS 2015 AND WHERE THE MAY GO

Edmonton has 10 selections in this year’s draft but it’s doubtful they use all of them. Peter Chiarelli appears to be angling for No. 33 to be used on a goalie and that makes sense (depending on the goalie coming back). Here’s a quick look at what might happen:

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid. Winning that lottery might be the crime of the century.
  • No. 16 overall: Evgeny Svechnikov, Jeremy Roy or Joel Eriksson Ek. The more I think about this pick, the more I believe Edmonton keeps it and gets a skill player. Lots of strong names will be there when it comes Edmonton’s turn.
  • No. 33 overall: Cam Talbot or similar. Seems this deal could happen today or tomorrow.
  • No. 57 overall: D Vince Dunn, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Smart offensive defender. I think Edmonton spends this pick on skill.
  • No. 79 overall: G Matej Tomek. Tomek and Jalad at Tanagra. Shaka. when the walls fell.
  • No. 86 overall: L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) This is probably where that list above starts working.
  • No. 117 overall: D Brendan Guhle, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Sleeping giant, range of skills.
  • No. 124 overall: R Keegan Kolesar. Tough winger with some skill, Oilers looking for this type. He can play.
  • No. 154 overall: R Kay Schweri, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Fantastic playmaker.
  • No. 184 overall: C Tyson Baillie. Extreme skill, hard worker, speed only average. Could be a home run pick. Seriously.

That’s a helluva draft, ladies.

We’ll see. I would think this trade is so far down the road that at this point the two sides are playing chicken. This is the time when Peter Chiarelli earns his money and I’m glad he’s Edmonton’s GM.

Blue Bullet’s list is out! How am I supposed to get any work done now!

 

shepherd 1

 

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re drunk with guests this morning, busy busy day. Scheduled to appear at 10 on TSN1260:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Chiarelli, the draft and saying goodbye to significant men in Billy Moores, Dave Semenko and Stu MacGregor.
  • Chris O’Leary, Edmonton Journal. CFL Week 1 ahead, we’ll check in on injuries and depth charts for the Eskimos.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. The Brit is coming in with his Union Jack gonch and a lot of attitude. God help us! We preview Canada-England on Saturday.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL week one plus the draft, both Oilers and Leafs have big weeks ahead.
  • Darrin Bauming, TSN1290 Winnipeg. Expectations are high for the Blue Bombers, can they start fast again?
  • Dave Jamieson, TSN1260. We’ll tee-up Dave’s show and talk about the impact of the Women’s World Cup.

10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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174 Responses to "MATH AND THE DRAFT"

  1. Connorrhea says:

    Seeing as everyone is still hunkered down in last night’s thread, talking jobs and tables, I’ll start off with some great Canadiana video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24svxMlLJMc

  2. dustrock says:

    Gord I’d love to have the goalie situation sorted before the draft so I can concentrate on the draft.

    If not, that #16 “the Oilers are on the clock” will have me on the edge of my seat.

  3. RPG says:

    Jason Gregor indicates a new predominantly orange jersey for the Oilers this season. Hell Yes!

  4. Connorrhea says:

    Evgeny Svechnikov 55GP, 22-30-52 .950 (EV)

    Man, if he’s there at 16…

    Anybody know his IPP?

    Edit: 78 points over 256 goals = 0.305

    I have no perspective on that number for forwards.

  5. zatch says:

    I am now on board with Woodguys Bernierspiracy.

  6. Ducey says:

    Svechnikov!

    I am hoping for him at 16. More EV ppg than Leon, the same as Bennett, and at #16. And he apparently plays C.

    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/23/get-to-know-a-draft-pick-evgeny-svechnikov/

    “Svechnikov may give some teams pause because of his Russian citizenship, but his upside should convince them he’s worth the risk. We’ve always thought he’d be more useful playing center and, halfway through Cape Breton’s 2014-15 season, that change was made — with phenomenal results. Svechnikov creates offense with his soft hands, size and strength and when his team doesn’t have the puck, he’s shown a commitment to making sure it stays out of his net. He had an excellent year with the Screaming Eagles and always maintained he came to North America to get ready for the NHL. That should make the team that selects him quite happy as big, offensive centers with an ability to defend are hard to find.”

    NHL comparable: Alex Killorn

  7. Ducey says:

    And LT, you notice Matteo Gennaro?

    A local kid in the draft who quite literally is the new Pisani (or at least his cousin)

    http://www.pressreader.com/canada/edmonton-journal/20150624/282106340285016/TextView

  8. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey:
    And LT, you notice Matteo Gennaro?

    A local kid in the draft who quite literally is the new Pisani (or at least his cousin)

    http://www.pressreader.com/canada/edmonton-journal/20150624/282106340285016/TextView

    Pretty sure I taught that kid in power skating. He was head and shoulders above age at that point.

  9. dustrock says:

    Blue Bullet has Svechnikov at 10 over Crouse, Zacha, Connor. Says he thinks he’s the last good bet to be a top line forward (after McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Strome, Barzal, and Rantanen.)

  10. frjohnk says:

    Connorrhea:
    Evgeny Svechnikov 55GP, 22-30-52 .950 (EV)

    Man, if he’s there at 16…

    Anybody know his IPP?

    Edit: 78 points over 256 goals = 0.305

    I have no perspective on that number for forwards.

    Actually its 37%. He missed 13 games.

    Marner had 50%
    Draisaitl had 49%

  11. Woodguy says:

    *pokes head out of burrow*

    *looks at calendar*

    *sees its not Friday*

    *goes back into burrow*

  12. dustrock says:

    http://www.draftbuzzhockey.com/#!2015-final/c155w

    These guys have the players ranked and have the goals % and points %.

    Looking at Hanifin like this, he’s just behind Werenski in goal % and ahead of Werenski and Provorov in points %.

  13. Bad Seed says:

    Woodguy,

    We’re still waiting to hear about your Cali golf adventure. Or did I miss it?

  14. slopitch says:

    “No. 16 overall: Evgeny Svechnikov, Jeremy Roy or Joel Eriksson Ek. The more I think about this pick, the more I believe Edmonton keeps it and gets a skill player. Lots of strong names will be there when it comes Edmonton’s turn.”

    Absolutely. There are some D I’d move the pick for obviously but I like to assume its not possible. Easier than entertaining a hundred trade scenarios. #BrainOverload

    Id be fine with Svechnikov or Eriksson Ek and plenty others. Lots of great prospects available.

    More and more chatter about Yakapov. I do hope that he stays with the Oilers.

  15. kinger_OIL says:

    Anyone interested in getting together in T-Dot, downtown for the Draft on Friday? We talked about it for the actual bingo ball, but that wasn’t a primetime event. I think the Friday will be full of action.

  16. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    *pokes head out of burrow*

    *looks at calendar*

    *sees its not Friday*

    *goes back into burrow*

    Are you a Woodguy or a woodchuck?

  17. Connorrhea says:

    frjohnk: Actually its 37%. He missed 13 games.

    Thanks. I thought it was just raw points/team goals.

  18. Rondo says:

    I wonder if Oilers are looking at Denis Guryanov.

  19. NDOilersfan says:

    Question for everyone. I will be out of town on Friday and not able to watch the draft on TV. Are there any sites online where I could stream it? Do you know if the NHL or Oilers website would do that? Otherwise I know Stauffer said he will be airing live at the draft. I’d like to watch if I can but if not I’d be fine listening. Just wanted to see what my options were.

    2 days til Connor!!!!

  20. Woodguy says:

    Bad Seed:
    Woodguy,

    We’re still waiting to hear about your Cali golf adventure.Or did I miss it?

    Haven’t had time to write it.

    I will.

    Not sure when.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Are you a Woodguy or a woodchuck?

    Depends if I’m chucking wood.

  22. sliderule says:

    I hope they keep the 33 and draft a defenceman.

    This pick could deliver a defenceman in the same skill range as Klefbom.

    The two best young defencemen the oilers have were drafted first round and the one with sideburns was drafted in second Rd.

    The oilers biggest need is defence and goaltenders .It seems no one will trade a decent defender so they have to draft them and the best chance is first or second round.

    There are lots of free agent goalies who are in the same range as Talbot especially when you consider risk of small sample size.

  23. johnnyshaka says:

    Trending on Twitter right now:

    http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/penguins/2015/06/24/Pens-plan-to-sign-Russian-forward-Sergei-Plotnikov-penguins-pittsburgh/stories/201506240175

    Any other guys like this out there that the Oilers should be poking at?

  24. dustrock says:

    If Kyle Connor is there do you take him over Svech?

  25. Visually better says:

    I’ve looked a lot in to Svechnikov and can’t stop thinking about Tarasenko. If we could land Mcdavid and a Tarasenko aswell as Cam Talbot/Eddie lack with #33, I would be ecstatic…. But the more i find on Svechnikov, I can’t understand why he’s ranked as low as he is. I’m afraid that he could end up going a lot earlier than expected. If Calgary takes him at 15 i might actually lose my mind. Our new Bennett/Draisaitl debate will be Svechnikov/Zacha or whatever and i’ll go nuts.

    Please gord, McJesus, Lord Nicholson the 4th, Darryl Katz’ son, or whoever is looking after us, please give us Svechnikov,

  26. AsiaOil says:

    As you outline LT – use the stats to confirm what the eyes see – use the eyes to confirm unappreciated value the stats find. It’s not one or the other – these tools are complimentary.

    By the way – just wanted to “tip the hat” for the comparison you made years ago of the Oilers to the Red Wings after Mike Ilitch bought them and messed around unsuccessfully for a bunch of years. Think DK finally “got it” and quit messing around with the BOTB? Looks like it to me…….

  27. Mtl-oiler says:

    Since there hasn’t been a trade suggestion in awhile how is this for one.
    Done only if one of Hanifin or Provorov are still on the board at the 6th spot.

    To NJ:
    Draisaitl
    Yakapov
    2015 16 OV
    2016 1st rnd
    L. Brossoit

    To EDM:
    2015 6 OV
    Larrson
    C. Schneider
    2015 3rd
    2015 2nd

    Thoughts?

  28. Connorrhea says:

    johnnyshaka:
    Trending on Twitter right now:

    http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/penguins/2015/06/24/Pens-plan-to-sign-Russian-forward-Sergei-Plotnikov-penguins-pittsburgh/stories/201506240175

    Any other guys like this out there that the Oilers should be poking at?

    A hard working winger with good game vision who plays an impressive physical game. He also has a good shot. Needs to improve his skating.
    – Anton Vasyatin, EP (2015)

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=17760

  29. John Chambers says:

    Visually better,

    Tons of good options will be on the board at #16 …

    A goalie or the light Jeremy Roy are not among them, but Zboril, Svechnokov, or Meier would be, how you say …

    Music!!!

  30. John Chambers says:

    Mtl-oiler:
    Since there hasn’t been a trade suggestion in awhile how is this for one.
    Done only if one of Hanifin or Provorov are still on the board at the 6th spot.

    To NJ:
    Draisaitl
    Yakapov
    2015 16 OV
    2016 1st rnd
    L. Brossoit

    To EDM:
    2015 6 OV
    Larrson
    C. Schneider
    2015 3rd
    2015 2nd

    Thoughts?

    I think we fleece Ray Shero here, do this deal only happens in Wonderland.

    That said it might actually serve NJ’s long-term interest to trade Schneider to allow them to tank properly. And we know a thing or two about tanking, and it starts in the crease.

  31. su_dhillon says:

    I know its super early and there is no way of knowing what the roster looks like in Sept but if Oilers keep the 16th as most people seem to think they will, use the 33 for a goalie trade and as of right now have not shown any indication that either Nikitin or Ferrence will be bought out how much different is this D group going to look in the fall? 1 UFA add? UFA + Nurse?

  32. Axiv says:

    I’ve got a feeling that when looking back at this draft a few years from now, everyone will wonder how Kylington fell so far. If I were Chia I’d be having a few conversations with Klefbom to see what he has heard (at a player-to-player level) about Kylington and Eriksson Ek through the Färjestad connection.

    I’m not sure I’d be too upset with Kylington at 16, depending on who else is available, of course. It may look like a reach relative to some draft rankings, but we have seen highly ranked players have a rough draft year before.

  33. Visually better says:

    John Chambers,

    Yes, can’t argue with that. I just think Svechnikov is the right fit for us, another player who can play multiple positions, has size but more importantly skill.

    Don’t get me wrong I would be thrilled with a Timo Meier as well. Was outstanding watching him carry that Swiss team.

  34. wheatnoil says:

    su_dhillon:
    I know its super early and there is no way of knowing what the roster looks like in Sept but if Oilers keep the 16th as most people seem to think they will, use the 33 for a goalie trade and as of right now have not shown any indication that either Nikitin or Ferrence will be bought out how much different is this D group going to look in the fall? 1 UFA add? UFA + Nurse?

    I don’t think the D is going to look much different. I think Chia is going to mostly tinker until the start of the season. That said, as LT has posted recently, Chia’s history in season is quite a bit different than the Oilers history for trades in season. I wonder if that’s where Chia may start doing more damage.

  35. johnnyshaka says:

    Connorrhea: A hard working winger with good game vision who plays an impressive physical game. He also has a good shot. Needs to improve his skating.
    – Anton Vasyatin, EP (2015)

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=17760

    Are we gun-shy on the KHLers after the Belov experiment?

  36. LMHF#1 says:

    johnnyshaka: Are we gun-shy on the KHLers after the Belov experiment?

    No reason to be really. Between the coach and how bad the squad was overall, not even getting into that one example doesn’t mean a heck of a lot.

    I’d bring the guy back frankly. He’s better than that other Russian on the team.

  37. johnnyshaka says:

    LMHF#1:

    I’d bring the guy back frankly. He’s better than that other Russian on the team.

    Have them do two laps around the ice and the winner gets to stay!

    Two laps could be a half-marathon for those two Ruskies.

  38. striatic says:

    Svechnikov won’t be there at 16. Best not get our hopes up. McKenzie has him going earlier and unless he made some huge interview faux pas at the combine. Who is going to take the “Russian factor” seriously? He’s a CHL kid. If Yakupov has proven anything through his mistreatment it is that these guys are not flight risks even in the worst case scenario.

  39. Messier11edm says:

    TSN’s Craig Button is predicting the Oilers will take Samsonov with the 16th overall pick.

    He’s nuts! Plain and simple. He also doesn’t have Jeremy Roy being taken in the first round.

  40. Rondo says:

    striatic,

    McKenzie has him at #18

  41. su_dhillon says:

    wheatnoil,

    I think you maybe right, maybe we see an add through UFA and they hope the new coaching staff can make some of the guys look better and movable around deadline time.

  42. johnnyshaka says:

    Stalberg and Clune on waivers in Nashville.

    You would think the Coyotes look really hard at Stalberg at that cap hit.

  43. Connorrhea says:

    johnnyshaka,

    Gun-shy of reports indicating that skating is a weakness.

    But Plotnikov isn’t that much of a risk, at $925k for one year. He can be buried if he clears waivers, and only affects their 50 contract limit.

  44. G Money says:

    This is the cool part about having Pittsburgh’s pick in addition to the McDavid pick, and having it end up solidly in the range where some really good players should still be available.

    It means that even with the foregone conclusion at #1, the entire first half of the first round will be really interesting to watch. Imagine how much less fun the speculation would be if that pick had ended up #27!

    And unless Chia trades #33, even the rest of the first round will be interesting, since a potentially good player might be available at #33 as well.

    Unless #16 is used for a goalie, either as a trade or as a pick.

    Then we’ll have to start the wailing and gnashing of the teeth, as our high Chia hopes will be dashed, and we kick off the “Second Era of MacT GMing”.

  45. Jordan says:

    Mtl-oiler,

    Too Favourable to the Oilers.

    Lose the 2nd & 3rd this year from NJ and lose Brossoit.
    Maybe add the MTL 2nd on the Oilers part.

    Schnider & the 6th OV have really big value. It would take a lot to get them to consider moving him.

    I look at it as
    16 OV & 57 OV for 6th OV
    2016 1st & 1/2 Yak for Larsson
    Leon & 1/2 Yak for Schnider

    Now, I’m not sure I’d do that deal from the Oilers perspective – I really like Leon. But it’s interesting enough that I’d consider it.

  46. dustrock says:

    One guy I follow on Twitter said why not take Dermott if you like Kylington? Said better hockey sense.

    No doubt Kylington is one of the best skaters in the draft but some think he doesn’t have the toolbox.

  47. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    This is the cool part about having Pittsburgh’s pick in addition to the McDavid pick, and having it end up solidly in the range where some really good players should still be available.

    It means that even with the foregone conclusion at #1, the entire first half of the first round will be really interesting to watch. Imagine how much less fun the speculation would be if that pick had ended up #27!

    And unless Chia trades #33, even the rest of the first round will be interesting, since a potentially good player might be available at #33 as well.

    Unless #16 is used for a goalie, either as a trade or as a pick.

    Then we’ll have to start the wailing and gnashing of the teeth, as our high Chia hopes will be dashed, and we kick off the “Second Era of MacT GMing”.

    ” With the 16th pick, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select from the BCHL……”

  48. johnnyshaka says:

    Connorrhea:
    johnnyshaka,

    Gun-shy of reports indicating that skating is a weakness.

    But Plotnikov isn’t that much of a risk, at $925k for one year. He can be buried if he clears waivers, and only affects their 50 contract limit.

    I hear ya on the skating issues but like you said, the investment is minimal and doesn’t cost anything but cash and a contract.

    Are there any other KHLers or SEL players who have slipped through the cracks that could be cheap depth additions?

  49. striatic says:

    Rondo:
    striatic,
    McKenzie has him at #18

    Don’t know why I thought he was earlier, but I still think someone will take him over the other 10-20 ranked wingers.

  50. Snowman says:

    Svech or Konecny at 16 would be outstanding. Just fantastical.

  51. Visually better says:

    If we drafted McDavid #1, Svechnikov #16, Kylington #33, got Eddie Lack with #57, #89 and perhaps a 2nd or 3rd next year, traded Marincin + for Kevin Klein, signed Michaelek and/or Sekera, try and package a deal starting with Yakupov Schultz ++ for Byfuglien/Burns I would be in heaven.

    1. Pouliot/ Nuge/ Ebs
    2. Hall/ Mcdavid/ Purcell
    3. Draisaitl/ Lander/ Parkirinen
    4. Wagon/ Wagon/ Wagon

    1. Klefbom/(Burns/Buff)
    2. Michaelek/Fayne
    3. (Nurse/Ference)/Klein

    1G. Lack
    2G. Scrivens

    Then have (Nurse/Draistaitl), Yakimov, Slepyshev, Kylington, Svechnikov, etc.. Playing in the AHL or juniors. Buyout Nikitin, get rid of Scrivens, at the deadline trade Gordon and Purcell.

    Next year run something like this:

    1. Pouliot/ Nuge/ Ebs
    2. Hall/ McDavid/ Grabner
    3. Svech/ Lander/ Draisaitl
    4. Slepy/ Yakimov/ Parkirinen

    1. Nurse/ (Buff/ Burns)
    2. Klefbom/ Klein
    3. Michalek/ Fayne

    1G. Lack
    2G. Broissoit/Laurkinen/ Bachman etc..

    We would be playing Tampa Bay in the next 10 SCF..

  52. TheGreatMcMutato says:

    John Chambers: I think we fleece Ray Shero That said it might actually serve NJ’s long-term interest to trade Schneider to allow them to tank properly. And we know a thing or two about tanking, and it starts in the crease.

    In that case, we need to sweeten the pot. Can you include executives in a trade? I’ll say that there’s one other guy in hockey today that is still working in the game that has tanked more seasons than Lowe. So I think he knows a little bit about tanking, if there’s ever a concern.

  53. Connorrhea says:


    Renaud Lavoie
    ‏@renlavoietva
    If the players didn’t applied the 5% growth factor, the NHL cap would have decreased $1.1M to $67.9M next season.

    Yikes! How many times can that escalator be used during this CBA?

  54. Visually better says:

    striatic,

    Heard he interviewed great.

  55. wheatnoil says:

    Given the number of goaltenders available, the price to acquire can't be very steep.— Scott Cullen (@tsnscottcullen) June 24, 2015

    Buyer’s market indeed. Don’t blink Chia. Don’t blink. (or, alternatively, do what you with McLellan… if the price is too steep, go with your solid #2 option for much cheaper)

  56. v4ance says:

    New replacement Capgeek contender with armchair GM function:
    https://hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/

    For # of contracts:
    http://capfriendly.com/?p=team-caps

    For precision cap tracking down to the exact dollar, based on the exact number of games played:
    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/EDM.html

  57. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Visually better,

    Kevin Klein and Matt Belesky are the winners in their divisions (Trade division and Sign division) for the “ultimate buy high opportunity” award.

    Just say no.

  58. v4ance says:

    Connorrhea,

    The escalator can be used every single year.

    The cap being linked to revenues means that escrow is needed every year since the actual growth hasn’t matched the expected growth. If the cap was linked to the revenue precisely, the number would have been around $62 million last year.

    For example, the “estimated” revenue was $4.14 billion. 1/2 goes to the players as $2.07B which is split between 30 teams. 2.07B/30teams=69 Million per team in cap room. The ACTUAL revenues were only $3.73 B so the players were only supposed to get $1.86B of that total revenue which would have led to a cap of $62.1 Million. Since the players got too much of the actual revenue, escrow is applied to send 10% back to the NHL owners.

    Since they keep adding the escalator, the players will always have escrow withheld until the NHL growth exceeds 5% by a large margin.

  59. Bar_Qu says:

    It sounds like here in Cowtown that the Flames would be much more interested in Nick Merkley than Svechnikov and he could likely still be on the board especially if Zacha and Crouse go top 10, like everyone seems to think they will. The mock draft I heard today put Zboril up in the top 15 too. I really feel like there will be some guys taken far earlier in the draft than their point totals warrant and this could end up being a very good thing for the Oil.

    Crossing my fingers and looking forward to Friday. Exciting times (even if I did just shoot an abysmal back nine this morning).

  60. Rondo says:

    Oilers will take at #16 Guryanov ,Svechnikov, Roy or Zboriil

  61. NCD12 says:

    Nhl.com did a 2010 re draft and have Hall at 5, don’t know how to post links yet or I would

  62. Hammers says:

    Excellent points are made by many today but face it Oilers management make funny decisions , always have and I haven’t seen anything yet to change my mind .

  63. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NCD12:
    Nhl.com did a 2010 re draft and have Hall at 5, don’t know how to post links yet or I would

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=771540

  64. Boondock says:

    Dashingsilverfox: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=771540

    LOL, Kuznetsov at 4, what a useless list.

  65. NCD12 says:

    It’s a pretty bad re draft

  66. Wild Bill Hunter says:

    I would LOVE for the Oilers picks to go as you project. Each and every pick has potential which exceeds the risk. I agree with your comment about Baillie but I don’t think he will still be there at number 184.

  67. Halfwise says:

    Hammers:
    Excellent points are made by many today but face it Oilers management make funny decisions , always have and I haven’t seen anything yet to change my mind .

    “Oilers management”? You make it sound like the old conference room table is making the decisions and the people around it are just there as witnesses.

    Or is the wholesale replacement of management, the firing of pro and amateur head scouts and the complete changeout of coaching staff another of those “funny decisions”?

    The glass is half full, man. Maybe more than half.

  68. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Boondock: LOL, Kuznetsov at 4, what a useless list.

    I’d put Hall at 4 and Justin Faulk at 5. No idea why Kuznetsov is ranked that high.

    The list does gives us an idea how inexact a science the draft is though.

    Toffoli, Gallagher, Stone, Klingberg, Andersson, Zucker, Mrazek, Fast and Nemeth among others were all taken outside the first round.

    Whomever is drafting D for Dallas looks like a genius.

  69. Connorrhea says:

    Boondock: Kuznetsov at 4

    Well, I’m not even going to click on it now. Is there a name associated with that redraft?

  70. v4ance says:

    Connorrhea,

    Adam Kimmelman NHL.com editor. I knew there was a reason I didn’t read opinion pieces on NHL.com!

  71. Connorrhea says:

    v4ance,

    You know, of all the hockey related browsing I do, nhl.com is an infrequent site for me.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    Boondock,

    Yeah terrible redraft. It’s like a troll. I don’t know if take kuznetzov in the top 15 and definitely not yet. Faulk, klingberg, stone, mrazek, toffoli, bjugstad, fowler are definitely better at this point.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Mobile Swedish dmen is a recipe for success.

  74. Connorrhea says:

    Gord Stellick ‏@GordStelIick 2h2 hours ago
    @GordStelIick Deal would stack up like this: San Jose – Robin Lehner + 18th overall pick, Ottawa – 9th overall pick.

    Lehner, for trading down 9 spots?

  75. Dashingsilverfox says:

    A great look at the potential goalies on ON:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/6/24/which-goalie-is-best-fit

  76. Dashingsilverfox says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Mobile Swedish dmen is a recipe for success.

    And they found a 6’3″ 210 Finn in the 7th round in 2011….Jokkipakka.

  77. Halfwise says:

    Connorrhea:
    Gord Stellick ‏@GordStelIick2h2 hours ago
    @GordStelIick Deal would stack up like this: San Jose – Robin Lehner + 18th overall pick, Ottawa – 9th overall pick.

    Lehner, for trading down 9 spots?

    I read this as “To San Jose, Robin Lehner and the 18th. To Ottawa, the 9th” So SJ gives up the 9th pick, gets a goalie and a later first round pick.

    Edit: what you said, I think

  78. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Jason Brough ‏@JasonPHT 14m14 minutes ago

    Press release from the Coyotes notes that they “currently own” the third overall pick. Currently.

  79. Kmart99 says:

    I can get behind Tarasenko/Hall/Seguin as all being pretty equal but R Johanssen is slightly behind and Kuznetzov I.. I… Lolol

  80. misfit says:

    I think trading up to #9 would be a better return than trading him straight across for a 2nd round pick. The cost to make that move otherwise is probably a 2nd, but I’d rather get the prospect from a higher tier if it’s true there’s a drop at around 12 overall.

    Although, form San Jose’s perspective, I think I’d rather have the #9 pick and find a goalie elsewhere.

  81. grim.oil says:

    Kmart99:
    I can get behind Tarasenko/Hall/Seguin as all being pretty equal but R Johanssen is slightly behind and Kuznetzov I.. I… Lolol

    Johansen is a beast. He is also the only guy playing C. I put him in the top 4 conversation for sure.

  82. Boondock says:

    Kmart99:
    I can get behind Tarasenko/Hall/Seguin as all being pretty equal but R Johanssen is slightly behind and Kuznetzov I.. I… Lolol

    I wouldn’t get worked up about Hall, Seguin, Johansen or Tarasenko ranked as the top 4 in any order, they’re all great. I stopped reading at Kuznetsov over Hall.

  83. Kmart99 says:

    grim.oil,

    No doubt. But id still rather have Hall, Seguin, or Tarasenko. Although Johanssen is right there.

  84. Kmart99 says:

    Hall’s value across the league is tainted by the Oilers’ record.
    If the Oilers were winning Hall would be held in much higher regard.

  85. Магия 10 says:

    Boondock: I wouldn’t get worked up about Hall, Seguin, Johansen or Tarasenko ranked as the top 4 in any order, they’re all great. I stopped reading at Kuznetsov over Hall.

    Agreed. And I’d expect ratings to bounce around with injuries and playoff appearances and TV exposure. WOOT! WOOT! WOOT!

  86. Kmart99 says:

    All this goalie talk has me concerned that not enough focus has been placed on fixing the D.

    I know that the goaling was a bigger issue than the D last year, but there are so many good available options in net right now and few on D..

    The #16 being traded in a block buster for a #1D is crucial IMO.

    Shoot for the moon and try for Larssen, Dougie Hamilton.
    Sekera is good, but not a game changer and far from likely to end up in Edm.

    Klefbom and Nurse project nicely but not like:
    Pietrangelo Shattenkirk
    Keith Seabrook
    Subban Markov
    Chara Hamilton
    Weber Josi
    Etc….

    Two D men BETTER than Sekera are needed and the #16 had enough value to get one.

    That, to me, is the crucial piece of this equation.

    As for Talbot, Lack, Jones, Enroth, Nieme, Greiss, Neuvirth…. The options are plentiful and I’m not worried.

  87. Hammers says:

    Why is it when I listen or read some of the eastern writers comments I get pissed off . Today what would the Oilers take for number1 ? They will trade 16 and 33 . I can’t wait for us to get back in playoffs then start moving up because it’s gonna happen . May take a few years but it will happen . In someways this so reminds me of when we came into the NHL and PP comment we would win the cup in 5 years . So long ago but Eastern writers laughed and we loved it when we did win .

  88. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Rachel Goldman retweeted

    Aaron Ward ‏@TSNAaronWard 4h4 hours ago

    Much like NYR and Talbot, VAN has multiple offers on Lack. Hearing BUFF among most interested. #TSN

  89. John Chambers says:

    Kmart99,

    They’ll get a D I’m certain if it.

    I bet there are 5-6 new Oilers in a weeks time who we’ll see in the opening lineup

  90. Connorrhea says:

    Bobfather on TSN1040 now: http://player.tsn1040.ca/

  91. Магия 10 says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Rachel Goldman retweeted

    Aaron Ward ‏@TSNAaronWard4h4 hours ago

    Much like NYR and Talbot, VAN has multiple offers on Lack. Hearing BUFF among most interested. #TSN

    The open talking period with UFAs makes it a bit easier for buyers to sort out what they want to do ahead of the draft.

  92. Snowman says:

    It’ll be interesting to see if Buffalo gets Lack or Talbot first what that does to the price of the one who is still available. On one side, one of the “top end” trade goalies is taken, on the other side one of the big buyers in the goalie market also filled their dance card.

  93. frjohnk says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Rachel Goldman retweeted

    Aaron Ward ‏@TSNAaronWard4h4 hours ago

    Much like NYR and Talbot, VAN has multiple offers on Lack. Hearing BUFF among most interested. #TSN

    Gregor said that Rangers asked for the 16th, PC said no.

    I could see PC or other GM’s saying something like that their best offer is a late second and a conditional second if Talbot signs

    Its been mentioned countless times on this blog and various outlets ( cult of hockey, oilers nation) its a buyers market for goalies.
    I think right now there is a significant gap on what the buyers ( Sabres and Oilers) are willing to give up and what the sellers want.

    Tomorrow is also the day that teams can start talking to UFA’s. Goalie buyers would then have a better idea of who is willing to sign for what money and if its better to sign a UFA or trade an asset for a goalie.

  94. Younger Oil says:

    This may be a dumb idea, but I don’t think it has been suggested:

    Would it be feasible to trade down with the #33 before making the goalie trade?

    For example, trade #33 to Columbus for #38 and #69, and then trade #38 (and a prospect/future pick like expected) for a goalie?

    It would allow us to preserve the number of players we will draft in this draft, and the top 120 or so are of incredible quality so not losing a pick could really help.

  95. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Is Ference for Wiz conceivable?

    Is it a good idea?

  96. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk: Tomorrow is also the day that teams can start talking to UFA’s. Goalie buyers would then have a better idea of who is willing to sign for what money and if its better to sign a UFA or trade an asset for a goalie.

    This is where I’m at right now, as well.

    Use tomorrow to talk to Enroth and Neuvirth (maybe Niemi as well) to gauge interest and what kind of term they’d be looking at (which I think will be more of a determining factor than actual dollars given the saturation of the market and proximity of talent within the players).

    If Neuvirth expresses interest on a 2 or even 3 year deal, then maybe you don’t have to feel so pressured to move on Talbot or Lack.

    If none of them return your calls, well, better get back to Slats or Benning tout suite.

  97. Connorrhea says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Is Ference for Wiz conceivable?

    NMC. Unsure if modified or strict no-move, meaning he would have to supply a list of possible destinations.

    We need him to billet McDavid.

  98. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Connorrhea,

    Most expensive billet ever.

    But you aren’t wrong.

  99. Doug McLachlan says:

    Connorrhea: Gord Stellick ‏@GordStelIick 2h2 hours ago@GordStelIick Deal would stack up like this: San Jose – Robin Lehner + 18th overall pick, Ottawa – 9th overall pick.Lehner, for trading down 9 spots?

    Interesting.

    On a similar track (though thinking Eddie Lack instead).

    Which would/should the Oilers value more:

    #33 outright or the distance between #16 and #23 (Vancouver’s pick)?

  100. Connorrhea says:

    Doug McLachlan: #33 outright or the distance between #16 and #23 (Vancouver’s pick)?

    I think you’ll have to be at pick 16 before you can know what value there is in that.

  101. flygoalie says:

    Mtl-oiler:
    Since there hasn’t been a trade suggestion in awhile how is this for one.
    Done only if one of Hanifin or Provorov are still on the board at the 6th spot.

    To NJ:
    Draisaitl
    Yakapov
    2015 16 OV
    2016 1st rnd
    L. Brossoit

    To EDM:
    2015 6 OV
    Larrson
    C. Schneider
    2015 3rd
    2015 2nd

    Thoughts?

    No way NJ moves Schneider. Trade #16 & Draisaitl to TO for #4 and take either Hanafin or Provolov. Do not trade Yak! Lock him in a dark room continously runniing Brett Hull highlight videos with a recording that repeats “Don’t carry the puck, go to open ice.” Then put him on a line with McDavid & Hall and let him buck.

  102. Connorrhea says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Most expensive billet ever.

    Bribe him to retire and stay with the team in some capacity. Then it can be just like Mario did for Crosby when he entered the league.

  103. Connorrhea says:


    TSN Hockey ‏@TSNHockey now2 minutes ago
    Is Mark Giordano seeking $9M in AAV from the @NHLFlames? Details from @frank_seravalli: http://www.tsn.ca/1.316831

  104. Магия 10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Connorrhea,

    Most expensive billet ever.

    But you aren’t wrong.

    Isn’t Eakins still on the payroll?

  105. Connorrhea says:

    Магия 10: Isn’t Eakins still on the payroll?

    I’ll take this one in Godot’s absence:

    I don’t want Eakins anywhere near McDavid!

  106. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    How many times am I going to scream from the rooftop over at Oilers Nation that Cam Ward is a bad idea before I give up?

    I get not everyone is into analytics.. but damn.

    You know who’s proven? Andy Moog. Let’s bring him in.

    Jesus.

  107. Магия 10 says:

    Connorrhea,

    Thanks for settling that. The suspense was killing me.

  108. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Andy Strickland ‏@andystrickland 30s31 seconds ago

    Kansas City remains very interested in becoming an #NHL city, told relocation is more likely than expansion.

  109. AsiaOil says:

    Picking up from the end of the last post – sorry to non-stats/goalie aficionados 🙂

    G – I was simply referring to the washout goalies analysis and accept that result – it’s self- selected – but valid for what it’s worth. Guys who can get to 50 will usually get to 200 – fine – and not a particularly unusual result given the high failure rate involved in simply getting to the NHL. In this case the small number of NHL failures are actually not to be ignored as these may tell you something important. But the NHL did exist more than 10 years ago if I’m not mistaken – and even a casual surf through the stats of guys immediately before this period shows plenty whose 1300 save percentage was not predictive in a positive or negative way.

    You suggest that the last 10 years represents all we need to know to predict the future, but your reason for adopting this time frame is simply convenience and does not support the validity of the results. It’s not very convincing. Many guys do not fit this pattern before this time frame – why? Inquiring minds would like to know. What’s changed? It’s like suggesting that you can predict future global climate patterns based on the last 10 years of weather data and we can safely ignore both the last 100 years of instrument data and millions of years of proxy data. You are surveying the landscape with blinkers on.

    You are saying that during the last 10 years goalies have become wonderfully stable as soon as they reach the NHL (with a few ups and downs) and highly predictable wrt to save percentage from 50 games to the end of their careers. There is no voodoo – age that you achieve these 50 starts doesn’t matter, experience you have when you achieve these starts doesn’t matter, physical skill level doesn’t matter, AHL record doesn’t matter. Simple SP at 50 games played is all you need and your book is written. You really don’t have any problems with that set of conclusions? It’s a lot to swallow with an incomplete data set – and yes – using only the last 10 years is very incomplete.

    That you are still touting Scriven as someone who can achieve near elite numbers because of this analysis leads me to believe you’ve never seen him play. He should have been good last year based on this work and he was a friggin disaster. Riemer is not very good either and both of the BUF pair were overlooked by very solid hockey men as deficient last season when they were available – and rightfully so. This type of thinking has side-tracked the Oilers 2 times in the last 10 years (Markanen/Conklon & Scrivens/Fasth) with the uni-dimensional stats guys huffing about good bets. Both were unquestionable failures. I supported the first to be honest and learned my lesson. Scrivens is not a good goalie – watch him for 10 minutes for Pete’s sake – he has multiple serious issues. I’d stomach him as a backup till his contract is done for cap reasons and manage his starts – that’s different than saying he’s a “near elite” goalie. He isn’t and your eyes would lead you to question the analysis if you let them – just as the stats should lead you to question your eyes in the reverse case. Finally back to the post topic 🙂

    So no I continue to remain unconvinced that the universe has suddenly become so predictable and simple. Do this stuff enough and you very quickly learn to be very wary when someone with a small data set starts to say a complex system is easy, simple and predictable. If it is – then something else almost certainly driving the results or the analysis is deficient for reasons I’ve gotten into previously.

  110. misfit says:

    Connorrhea:

    TSN Hockey ‏@TSNHockeynow2 minutes ago
    Is Mark Giordano seeking $9M in AAV from the @NHLFlames? Details from @frank_seravalli: http://www.tsn.ca/1.316831

    Might as well strike while the iron is hot, and he’s definitely one of the better NHL defenders today. With that said, he’s not “highest paid defenseman in hockey” good. I definitely don’t think he’s worth that long term.

    I wonder who his agent is, because he’s always seemed like a bit of a hardass during contract negotiations in his career. Didn’t he go play in Russia one year because Calgary wouldn’t give into his demands after one half year in the NHL?

  111. Магия 10 says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 6h6 hours ago
    NYR continue to mull over multiple offers for Cam Talbot. Keeping him remains an option, but strong interest makes that unlikely. #TSN

    The PA needs to invite Dreger to their Agent Certification Program.

  112. Магия 10 says:

    I’m with Bruce. Lack with a July 1 extension is easier to pay for than Talbot and and Jan. 1 extension.

  113. Магия 10 says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Andy Strickland ‏@andystrickland30s31 seconds ago

    Kansas City remains very interested in becoming an #NHL city, told relocation is more likely than expansion.

    if relocations are cheaper and you get more players, which city doesn’t prefer moving in a team? I’d imagine the point of the new process is that they can keep the numbers closer.

  114. Connorrhea says:

    Магия 10,

    It’s surprising that relocation has even been mentioned, considering the expansion fee:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie now48 seconds ago
    If there’s expansion, Bettman said the fee will start with a 5. Therefore, $500M+ for a franchise if expansion proceeds.

  115. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris: This is where I’m at right now, as well.
    Use tomorrow to talk to Enroth and Neuvirth (maybe Niemi as well) to gauge interest and what kind of term they’d be looking at (which I think will be more of a determining factor than actual dollars given the saturation of the market and proximity of talent within the players).
    If Neuvirth expresses interest on a 2 or even 3 year deal, then maybe you don’t have to feel so pressured to move on Talbot or Lack.
    If none of them return your calls

    I think that is highly unlikely they don’t return the call. There are few teams looking for goalies. Sabres, Oilers, Wild, Sharks.
    If Dallas or Calgary are looking for a goalie that adds to who is buying, but it also adds more goalies ( Lehtonen and Hiller) to market as well. So its a wash and I wont use them in this example.

    goalies possibly on the block. not UFA
    1 from Ottawa ( Lehner)
    1 from Vancouver ( Lack)
    Talbot
    1 from Chicago ( Raanti)
    Jones

    UFA goalies
    Duby ( probably signs in Minnesota if they can pay him)
    Niemi
    Enroth
    Neuvirth
    Ramo

    Of course, not all these guys are starters, but each one would have a certain level of interest to any team looking.

    Duby signs with Minnesota, that leaves 3 teams with lots of options for goalies.

    Lots.

    Some of these UFA goalies will definitely want to be wanting to talk to Edmonton because of supply and demand. Edmonton could be there only chance of starting in the NHL.

  116. John Chambers says:

    Магия 10:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger6h6 hours ago
    NYR continue to mull over multiple offers for Cam Talbot.Keeping him remains an option, but strong interest makes that unlikely. #TSN

    The PA needs to invite Dreger to their Agent Certification Program.

    The interplay between Sather, Chiarelli, Tim Murray, and Doug Wilson would be great real-life drama.

    Next year remind me to make a documentary for Netflix where Brian Burke gets shown saying a bunch of arrogant things while sweating over Kung Pao, and Don Sweeny schemes over an offer sheet to McDavid as retribution for the Hamilton signing that sees the Bruins pick at 27, 57, and 87.

    There would also be a scene of Jay Feaster living in a van down by the River.

  117. Kermodoil says:

    It will be a fun few days, between today and saturday.

    tomorrow PC can talk to the FA goalies, so he can get a indication if there is interest.

    I like the idea of trading down in the first for a goalie and swap of 1st round picks.
    I would talk to Steve Y about Vasilievskiy.
    Anaheim for Gibsons.
    Or my preference #16 to TO for #24 and Bernier.
    Retains the Oilers 2nd round picks, in a great draft.

    Or look at 57 and 3rd rounder to Canucks for lack. solves two issues GM Jim Benning has about no 2nd and 3rd round picks this year.

  118. monsterbater4 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Picking up from the end of the last post – sorry to non-stats/goalie aficionados

    G – I was simply referring to the washout goalies analysis and accept that result – it’s self- selected – but valid for what it’s worth. Guys who can get to 50 will usually get to 200 – fine – and not a particularly unusual result given the high failure rate involved in simply getting to the NHL. In this case the small number of NHL failures are actually not to be ignored as these may tell you something important. But the NHL did exist more than 10 years ago if I’m not mistaken – and even a casual surf through the stats of guys immediately before this period shows plenty whose 1300 save percentage was not predictive in a positive or negative way.

    not disagreeing with your argument, but can you please name these goalies outside the parameter of the study who are “guys immediately before this period whose 1300 save percentage was not predictive in a positive or negative way” If you aren’t going to provide backup to your argument it doesn’t carry much weight

  119. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    So a few points:

    1 – you didn’t refer to the fact that you were talking about a subset of the work when you criticized it for looking “only at goalies between 50 and 200”, you implied it was the whole thing. The entire body of work looks at all goalies. This is something I will keep emphasizing: we are not looking at a sample. We’re looking at the entire population.

    2 – we didn’t preselect 10 years for any reason other than that’s how far back the w-o-i game by game data with adj sv% goes. It’s a data availability issue. That said, if you look at the change in sv% over time league wide, the farther back you go, the less valid the analysis becomes IMO, because you run into massive era effects. So 10 years seems like a very reasonable balance point anyway, between volume of data and validity of data.

    3 – However, as part of my data validity checks, I did take a quick look at data prior to that, and saw nothing to contradict the conclusions. In your prior post, for example, you used Fleury and Dipietro as examples. Notwithstanding that calling them ‘failures’ (one having played over 300 and one almost 600 NHL games) is questionable to say the least, in fact, they fit the pattern almost exactly. Their 1,300 sv% levels were actually excellent predictors of their long-term sv%.

    So even as the era levels of the numbers have changed, the relationship has not.

    4 – The data I put forth clearly shows that Fasth was a bad bet, not a good bet. If I’d done this analysis a year ago, I would have eschewed that signing. As it was, it was the ‘non stats guys’ that thought it was a reasonable bet. Based on viewings and history and all the other subjective detritus that so often leads to bad decisions.

    5 – One thing that the work uncovered is that a dip in goalie performance, typically starting some time after the 60 game mark, probably coinciding with the anointing of a goalie as a starter for the first time, is extremely common. So contrary to what you’re claiming the data set shows, in fact Scrivens’ situation last year is not at all surprising and somewhat predictable.

    Scrivens was fighting the puck from before the season started, in marked contrast to his performance the previous year. Semyon Varlamov dipped to a .903 the season before he put up .927 (all situations, which equates to a ridiculous .940 EV) and a Vezina nod the very next season. If Scrivens fits the pattern of all the other goalies on the list, we should expect him to rebound next year. For him not to fit the pattern would be a bad bet.

    In fact, what the data crunching I’ve done shows clearly is that Fasth/Scrivens was an extremely bad bet. (I’ve said this repeatedly – why do you keep falsely pushing the opposite?) It was a bad bet because a. Fasth is not likely to be an NHL goalie, or a backup at best, and b. Scrivens will be a good goalie long-term, but a downturn was to be expected. Ditto Dubnyk.

    For the same reason, I expect Talbot to be an elite goalie, but a dip next year would not be unexpected.

    6 – I am not implying that the universe is predictable. I keep using the term ‘smart bet’. The nature of a ‘bet’ is such that you are making predictions on an inherently nondeterministic process. However, the relationships this data has uncovered are so unexpectedly strong, that the point of it is to give you an edge on your betting. In this case, it’s a pretty substantial edge.

    7 – In that vain, rather than bickering in a situation where the data speaks loudly for itself but apparently isn’t a frequency you can hear :-), I have absolutely no problem if instead we simply put it aside and put forth a friendly wager on the results. Perhaps a $5 donation to this fine blog on each of the following points (assertions which my analysis clearly make but with which I presume you disagree):
    – that within 2 years, Scrivens is back to being an above average to elite NHL goalie (call it .917 or above all sits, or .922 EV, adj sv%)
    – that within 2 years, Talbot is an elite NHL goalie (.920 AS and .925 EV, adj)
    – that by end of next season, Jhonas Enroth is established as a legitimate NHL starter (similar to Scrivens’ projected numbers)
    – that by end of next season, Karri Ramo is established as a backup and not a starter (.915 or lower all sits)

    Smart bets.

  120. Really? says:

    It is my understanding that teams may start discussions/negotiations with UFA goalies commencing tomorrow. As such, teams like VCR and NYR potentially lose some of their bargaining power if they have not reached a deal on Talbot and Lack by that time. This suggests we may see some movement tonight. A key factor is that PC seems to realize that the real pressure is actually on Sather rather than on him. He has options whereas Sather may not.

  121. AsiaOil says:

    A lot of goalies (even good ones) seem to possess one similarity – their current teams do not seem to care too much if they move on very much – and other teams do not seem to want to pay much to acquire them. It seems like many GMs have very itchy trigger fingers when it comes to goalies – it’s easy to simply blame the goalie for any problem and trade him for scraps. Plus there are a lot of goalies and good teams tend to collect more than they need (because they are good a finding and developing).

    I’d suggest that the best run teams when it comes to goalies (MON, NASH, NYR, MINN) do not operate like this. These teams always seem to have great goaltending which is STABLE. You draft skill, develop it carefully, and stick with it when the inevitable odd bad year happens. Badly run and coached teams like the Oilers and Leafs go through guys like candy. We did most of the important stuff OK with Dubnyk – then a rookie GM came in and wanted bold moves and got rid of a quality goalie on a whim after a bad half year. Another smarter team will now benefit from the Oilers decade long efforts.

    This is why I think Bernier is the guy to get now. Great pedigree, young entry to the NHL on a well coached team, excellent technique, good stable results, right age for our cluster, next contract should be affordable and will buy his best years. Maybe a touch small is the only knock but his technique is solid which makes up for it. Get him, make him feel like “the guy”, and take care of his damn head 🙂 Do that and he’ll likely be good enough to take the Oilers deep into the playoffs and we can quit worry about goaltending.

    That’s what I think Chia will do – get Bernier as long he is available and the price is OK – smart move, low risk, good profile. When Chia talks about “small sample size goalies” it means that small sample size is a relevant factor to a GM with significance analytical experience irrespective of what some people believe.

  122. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy: Depends if I’m chucking wood.

    How much wood could a Woodguy buy, if a Woodguy could buy wood? (I’m sure you’ve heard that one before.)

  123. AsiaOil says:

    Done!

    G Money,

  124. AsiaOil says:

    monsterbater4,

    Kipper

  125. SwedishPoster says:

    Outside of Meier and Sprong that whole Q list are rookies to boot, making their numbers even more impressive. Some of them are ranked shockingly low. I’ve started looking at the draft with the work I did that got published on G Moneys site in mind. There a few players that stand out who aren’t even rankedon a lot of lists. Rodrigo Abols is one example. Are they looking that bad by eye?
    I was hoping to get it done before the draft but I don’t think I have the time
    Also, the goalie who looks best to me is Daniel Vladar.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    Connorrhea,

    Who is going to spend 500 million for the opportunity to bring in a franchise to Las Vegas or Kansas City, with scraps from an expension draft to choose from to bring in fans. That is a ridiculous number.

  127. leadfarmer says:

    Sure the average value of NHL franchise is estimated to be 490 mil but that’s because teams like Toronto Nyr, Montreal are worth over a billion. Only 11 of the teams are worth 500 mil or more and that was calculated using a much stronger Canadian dollar.

  128. G Money says:

    AsiaOil:
    Done!

    G Money,

    Recorded and logged. See you in two years.

    monsterbater4: not disagreeing with your argument, but can you please name these goalies outside the parameter of the study who are “guys immediately before this period whose 1300 save percentage was not predictive in a positive or negative way” If you aren’t going to provide backup to your argument it doesn’t carry much weight

    AsiaOil:
    monsterbater4,

    Kipper

    Geezus.

    Expecting actual data to back up assertions is always a reasonable thing to do.

    But in this case, it doesn’t mean much.

    Just to recap, Asia’s done this a few times now, come up with a singular counterexample and proferred that as somehow constituting ‘proof’ of invalidity. There’s a doubly weird aspect to this, which is that his argument is that my sample size (which constitutes 100% of all goalies starting in the last decade) is inadequate for making projections about current goalies, but one sample point, including one 15 years out of date, *is* an adequate counter?

    Let me explain why this is ridiculous:

    If I come up with a study that shows an extremely strong statistical relationship as follows:
    a. smoking is associated with increased risk of lung cancer
    b. the heavier the smoking, the higher the risk
    c. smoking is not the only driving factor, but it is a dominating one

    The following are NOT valid counterexamples to this study:

    “My uncle smoked a pack a day for 90 years and didn’t get lung cancer”

    “My aunt never smoked a day in her life and she got lung cancer”

  129. Connorrhea says:

    leadfarmer,

    It’s incredible, isn’t it? I have no idea who would pony up that kind of klink.

  130. G Money says:

    My good man AsiaOil:

    Our bet recorded for posterity here: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/about/

    Please check and confirm that the terms are correct as written!

  131. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Outside of Meier and Sprong that whole Q list are rookies to boot, making their numbers even more impressive. Some of them are ranked shockingly low. I’ve started looking at the draft with the work I did that got published on G Moneys site in mind. There a few players that stand out who aren’t even rankedon a lot of lists. Rodrigo Abols is one example. Are they looking that bad by eye?
    I was hoping to get it done before the draft but I don’t think I have the time
    Also, the goalie who looks best to me is Daniel Vladar.

    Agree on Vladar, I have him as best G as well.

  132. Hammers says:

    Halfwise: “Oilers management”? You make it sound like the old conference room table is making the decisions and the people around it are just there as witnesses.

    Or is the wholesale replacement of management, the firing of pro and amateur head scouts and the complete changeout of coaching staff another of those “funny decisions”?

    The glass is half full, man. Maybe more than half.

    When I talk about management I’m talking about the Katz years of ownership and the ongoing bungling from Lowe Tambo , coaches from Quinn onwards . This teams total leadership for years has been terrible . I lump all that under management as hockey is a business and the best moves Katz has made have been in the last few months . For me it’s like he has awoken and treating this team like he treats his other businesses. Your right about the glass at last being more than half full . To bad it took so long.

  133. G Money says:

    SwedishPoster,

    P.S. You can probably tell that I’ve been working on other stuff. I’ll have your follow on stuff up within a day or so – before the draft, anyway!

  134. G Money says:

    Connorrhea:
    Finally – a trade! Spartak acquires 24 players from SKA:

    http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/06/24/there-was-a-24-player-trade-in-the-khl-today-because-sure-why-not/

    Has this created a new standard to strive for: the legen (wait for it) … … dary 24-for-1 trade?!?

  135. Connorrhea says:

    G Money,

    24 for ₽

  136. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money,

    No worries. I’m just happy my work has a home on the interwebs.

  137. leadfarmer says:

    Connorrhea,

    According to Forbes 6 teams generate 75% of the revenue. No way I would spend that money even if I hadit

  138. Ducey says:

    Connorrhea:
    leadfarmer,

    It’s incredible, isn’t it? I have no idea who would pony up that kind of klink.

    I imagine a few people.

    Put in $100 million in cash, finance the rest. 2% of $400 million is $8 million a year. With merchandising, seats, naming rights, revenue sharing, TV etc. etc. a set up in the right location can easily earn $8+ million a year.

    Heck, 18,000 seats x $150/ticket x 41 home games = $110 million based on attendance alone. The Leafs average $446 a seat – http://blog.tiqiq.com/2013/09/2013-14-nhl-average-ticket-prices-team/

    Of course if you are in Arizona you might be looking at something closer to 14,000 x $90/ ticket x 41 games = $51 million

    All you need is enough collateral to allow you to get that kind of financing. That’s the tricky part.

  139. G Money says:

    Owning a sports team is really about the ego. The return requires patience in order for the capital value of the franchise to expand. As long as you’re not actually losing money on a cash flow basis each year, you can make the financials of it work.

    Except in Arizona.

    Then either you’re screwed, or the taxpayers are screwed. No matter what, someone’s bum hurts.

  140. Marc says:

    Магия 10:
    I’m with Bruce. Lack with a July 1 extension is easier to pay for than Talbot and and Jan. 1 extension.

    Why are people getting so worked up about the possibility of Talbot going UFA if we trade for him? Next summer isn’t likely to be a great market for a goalie to go UFA.

    20 teams currently have at least 1 goalie earning $3m+ for 2 or more seasons. None of them are likely to be looking to add a big ticket goalie next summer.

    Of the 10 teams that don’t, Anaheim, St. Louis, Washington and Toronto (assuming they resign Bernier) have good young goalies in their RFA years, so have no reason to look for a big ticket UFA.

    Of the rest, Minnesota, San Jose, Buffalo and Edmonton are all looking to sign a starting goalie this summer, so most if not all of them won’t be looking next summer.

    That leaves just two teams that are likely to be looking for a goalie next summer – Calgary and Carolina, with a possibility that some of Edmonton/Toronto/Buffalo are as well, depending on the outcome of this summer.

    We know that there are 8-10 credible starting goalie candidates this summer and only 4 or so teams looking for a starter, so a bunch of those guys will be forced to take one year deals as backups and will be back on the market next summer.

    If Talbot plays well and gets a long term offer from Edmonton to be their starter, why exactly would he turn that down? Is he really going to want to compete against 8-10 other guys for the 2 or 3 open starter spots?

    Doesn’t seem likely to me.

  141. Connorrhea says:

    G Money,

    Was just going to reply with something similar.

    The Islanders, Perds, Blues and Sabres are still not even close to being valued at a half billion. All are sub-300M, according to Forbes, as of late 2014:

    http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/#page:3_sort:0_direction:asc_search:

    Getting someone to float that loan would take some serious Jack Donaghy style businessing!

  142. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Owning a sports team is really about the ego.The return requires patience in order for the capital value of the franchise to expand.As long as you’re not actually losing money on a cash flow basis each year, you can make the financials of it work.

    Except in Arizona.

    Then either you’re screwed, or the taxpayers are screwed.No matter what, someone’s bum hurts.

    Yup.

    All about franchise values and extorting dumb governments.

    Katz bought the Oilers for 188MM and now they are worth ~500MM

    That’s only good if he realizes that gain by selling right?

    No!!!

    Now he can borrow against the 312MM difference and that’s the key.

    Add in all the income from a new rink where the city is holding the paper at gov’t rates (and bonus!! The city owns it so no taxes!!!)

    The richest of the rich never use their own money and sport owners are a great example of it.

    /envy

  143. Woodguy says:

    I’d only pay Gio 9MM if Brodie came with him.

    Last 3 years.

    Gio with Brodie 52%CF
    Gio without Brodie 46.9%

    Gio should give Brodie 25% of his new contract.

  144. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money:
    My good man AsiaOil:

    Our bet recorded for posterity here:https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/about/

    Please check and confirm that the terms are correct as written!

    I will take action on that if you allow G, for LT’s site donation (although would you add the following for $5: Of all the G available UFA/Trade, etc this year Talbot won’t end up being the best)

  145. Woodguy says:

    To be fair, last 3 years:

    Brodie with Gio 52%
    Brodie without Gio 45.9%

    CAL has exactly 2 good NHL Dmen.

  146. Robinthe403 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    If you scroll back through the thread from last evening somebody linked to an article that had quoted from Ference. He is quoted as saying once he meets McDavid he will offer him a bed in his home and to live with Ference and his family during his first year in the league.

    Ference holds a full NMC in his contract. I really doubt he is going anywhere.

  147. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Robinthe403,

    I know. The problem I’m having is that I like the guy, and granted he’s good to have around.

    The problem is that we can’t have Nikitin, Ference, and Schultz on the team next year. The number suggest Ference is the worst of the three, and frankly he also has the least bounce back upside.

    It’s a pipe dream, I know.

    I’m not sure the D is solveable this off season, to be honest.

  148. Connorrhea says:

    Robinthe403: He is quoted as saying once he meets McDavid he will offer him a bed in his home and to live with Ference and his family during his first year in the league.

    Music!

    Nikitin and a 6th to Arizona for futures – only $13.5M more to go to hit the cap floor for Maloney.

  149. Robinthe403 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I’m confident Chia will be able to get the D to a much improved or ‘serviceable’ level. I’d rather keep Nikitin over Ference too and ideally maybe even flip Shultz for a more rounded, polished D. I think moving Nikitin with salary retention may be possible and then adding two D via trade and/or UFA is within the realm of possible.

    If that can be accomplished and we add competent goaltending, even without tinkering with the F, at that point we are now, finally cooking with gas….

  150. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Connorrhea: Music!

    Nikitin and a 6th to Arizona for futures – only $13.5M more to go to hit the cap floor for Maloney.

    Include Purcell for an even bigger bang on the cap???

  151. John Chambers says:

    Rondo:
    NHL Scouts Poll: The class of 2015 is average beyond the top 10

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl-scouts-poll–the-class-of-2015-is-average-beyond-the-top-10-151224207.html

    Some of these wingers like Svech and Meier look like sure-fire NHLers, but D like Carlo and Kylington might not pan out to much, and there appear to be a lot of future 3rd line centres in rd 1.

    The argument for taking a winger at #16 seems sound, however I would also be keen on Zboril if he was still on the board.

  152. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: Agree on Vladar, I have him as best G as well.

    A goalie I’ve seen surprisingly little hype around is Alexandar Georgiev, russian +1 overager who as a rookie out of Russia put up great numbers in the Finnish Elite League against men after first dominating Fin U20. Looks like he could be had in the 6th, 7th round despite already proving he can handle pro hockey.

    A thing rarely mentioned about Joel Eriksson Ek is that his GPG in Swedish U20 hockey is the best froma draft eligible player in ten years. The last player to top him? Anze Kopitar. Kopitar dragged along Nicklas Bergfors to a GPG better than Eri!ksson Ek as well, they played on the same line, but they are the only two beating out Joel the last ten. Pretty impressive no?

  153. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    Actually done on the first 3……

    Ramo hasn’t shown anything in his career to indicate he’s a starter let alone a good one – so why bet against my own beliefs. I agree with your evaluation based on his skill level and record.

    Talbot is small sample with little supporting data – could go either way – but I’ll take the under on him being a .925 ES or .920 AS quality starter in the NHL over the next two years (as in more than 40 starts in a season). If he starts less then that who cares – he’d be a 30 year old career backup at that point – supports my point no matter what the numbers.

    Scriven is easy money for me as he is a flawed goalie – watch him for Pete’s sake. This is EXACTLY like people arguing with me about JDD having starter potential – he didn’t and neither does Scrivens. Happy to take the under on him being a .922 ES or .917 AS starter in the NHL (again more than 40 starts). He’s a career backup and demonstrably failed the only time he tried to be more last year – that’s evidence and your rebound theory is speculation (contrary to “smart bet”). Your bounce back idea does not apply to guys like Scrivens who have never been starters (nothing there to bounce back to).

    Enroth similar to Scrivens in terms of talent and ability to carry as starters load. Happy to take the under on him being a .922 ES or .917 AS starter in the NHL (again in more than 40 starts which he has never doneby the way). MIN could have had Enroth last year but they chose Dubnyk because DD has way more talent and a record as a starter. Funny story about Enroth. After the Wild chose DD instead Enroth – they played each other in Dubnyk’s first game for the Wild – final score was 7-0 Dubnyk 🙂 Enroth went to Dallas and he wasn’t any better than he was in BUF and is unlikely to return. He’ll likely be on his 3rd team in 12 months this summer and I doubt anyone is crazy enough to want him as a starter unless they are tanking.

    All of your bets G are missing one important element G – any recognition that skill and experience are actually important. I really don’t know how you can adopt that stance, leave out all of that critically important information, and then call what you are doing a “smart bet”. But it’s your money……

    Let the experiment begin 🙂

  154. Connorrhea says:

    Robinthe403: finally cooking with refined Oil…

    Yeah, Ference really draws the short straw without context, but he might have more real value to the team as it is now.

    You know, I used to wish that I was older – that time had somehow slipped past me, so that I would then be a 5th grader (instead of a stooopid 4th grader).

    Now here I am, trying to wish away a summer, which might be one of only a dozen or so that I have left.

  155. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    Esteemed G Money – as outlined in my post above – all good for 3 of the 4 as I don’t believe Ramo will amount to anything – but I’m totally on-board for the other three.

    This will be a fun sideline – good idea 🙂

  156. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    To be fair, last 3 years:

    Brodie with Gio 52%
    Brodie without Gio 45.9%

    CAL has exactly 2 good NHL Dmen.

    Brodie with Gio 52% CD/60 +4.24 GD/60 +.56/60
    Brodie without Gio 45.9% CD/60 -8,77 GD/60 -.80
    Gio without Brodie 46.9 Cd/60 -6.55 GD/60 -.81
    They need each other.

    Fish Fresh Fish!
    I did not post Gio’s numbers
    Fresh Fish!

  157. Connorrhea says:

    Old Chinese proverb: When a bear offers you fish, it’s really just bait.

  158. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster: A goalie I’ve seen surprisingly little hype around is Alexandar Georgiev, russian +1 overager who as a rookie out of Russia put up great numbers in the Finnish Elite League against men after first dominating Fin U20. Looks like he could be had in the 6th, 7th round despite already proving he can handle pro hockey.

    A thing rarely mentioned about Joel Eriksson Ek is that his GPG in Swedish U20 hockey is the best froma draft eligible player in ten years. The last player to top him? Anze Kopitar. Kopitar dragged along Nicklas Bergfors to a GPG better than Eri!ksson Ek as well, they played on the same line, but they are the only two beating out Joel the last ten. Pretty impressive no?

    One of the really frustrating things (as a fan) for me is that we simply don’t get much info (until very late) on the Euro kids. I’m looking forward to reading more of your stuff!

  159. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    I’d only pay Gio 9MM if Brodie came with him.

    Last 3 years.

    Gio with Brodie 52%CF
    Gio without Brodie 46.9%

    Gio should give Brodie 25% of his new contract.

    You address this further down the thread, but yes, Giordano and Brodie are a pair who work exceptionally well together.

    When I saw the $9 million AAV ask I was, to be honest, thrilled. That’s rock-star money, and while Giordano has put together two very good seasons with improvement year-over-year, that price tag is probably between $1-2 million over.

    The Flames were sitting on a stable full of horseshoes this year with the Brodie extension and even the Backlund contract looks good. So to have Giordano bring inflation to that organization that is going to be very interesting. Monahan and Gaudreau are up next year and while I’m expecting them to sign bridge deals it could make their negotiations very interesting.

  160. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: although would you add the following for $5: Of all the G available UFA/Trade, etc this year Talbot won’t end up being the best

    Hmmm, except there’s nothing in the work that Wheat and I did that asserts that Talbot will be ‘the best’. There is absolutely no predictivity of some sort of order or other one-to-one correspondence.

    The statement that I’ve made is that I would expect Talbot, based on his early stage numbers, to be elite (or at the very least, above average). So I used .925 EV adjusted sv% as my benchmark for that, as that reflects somewhere between above average and elite.

    For Talbot to do worse than that would require him to drop about two standard deviations, and then stay there after two years. Not guaranteed to not occur (this is after all, not a deterministic outcome), but its betting on the wide part of the distribution and one tail, while Asia is betting on just the other tail.

    The bet on Scrivens is 1.3 standard deviations (so a little bit more even). Enroth is 2.1 sd, which is why he’d be my #1 target for a UFA.

    The one that is least tilted in my favour is actually the Ramo bet, because the most common outcome is for goalies to match or outperform their early season projections. Ramo on the projection list actually sits between a number of backups and a few decent goalies as well, and his recent work, consistent with the idea that more low goalies move up than good goalies go down, has been decently strong.

    So he could go either way. In his case, a .915 (all sits, which we recently resolved on this very blog is slightly below average for NHL starters) is more of a coin flip than a safe bet. But sometimes you just have to throw those kinds of bets in there, just for fun.

  161. G Money says:

    AsiaOil:
    G Money,

    Esteemed G Money – as outlined in my post above – all good for 3 of the 4 as I don’t believe Ramo will amount to anything – but I’m totally on-board for the other three.

    This will be a fun sideline – good idea

    Indeed! Funniest of all isn’t it that the bet you don’t want is the bet I’m least confident of!

  162. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    The only variable in your examination that I have questions on is goalie coaching.

    We don’t have as much information on the coaches, so it is difficult to parse, but if we work off of a combination of anecdotal evidence and comparisons we could argue that goalies have a performance variance that is at least partially affected by their club support (ie: coaching) as evidenced by the development of Mike Smith, Devan Dubnyk, Ilya Bryzgalov, Steve Mason and others who struggled in one venue only to succeed in another and crediting work with a particular coach or style.

    If you’ve accounted for this already, my apologies as I haven’t been able to keep up with all the reading (seriously fantastic work that you are doing here, very impressive and I wonder if it isn’t a matter of time before someone comes calling about purchasing your data process).

  163. G Money says:

    I like the idea of a bet, because at this point, only the results are going to demonstrate who is betting wisely and who isn’t.

    AsiaOil: Your bounce back idea does not apply to guys like Scrivens who have never been starters (nothing there to bounce back to).

    The bounce back in every single case was for goalies who started life as mostly bench warmers, had a dip relatively early in their careers as starters, and then bounced back. Pretty much every one. That’s the pattern.

    AsiaOil: All of your bets G are missing one important element G – any recognition that skill and experience are actually important. I really don’t know how you can adopt that stance, leave out all of that critically important information, and then call what you are doing a “smart bet”. But it’s your money……

    No, you’re missing the point. I have no particular skill at picking goalies. Neither I expect do you. What I’m relying on is the fact that, demonstrably, turns out most professional scouts don’t either.

    The idea that you can observe the mechanics of a goalie and determine his skill level is kind of weird to me. Guys like Hasek, arguably the best modern era goalie, Kipper, and quite a few others, had weird mechanics. Even Dubnyk was criticized in that department.

    The issue for Scrivens last year wasn’t mechanics, as far as my unskilled eye could see anyway. He was fighting the puck, by which I mean way overplaying it. The feather in the cap of a Scrivens analysis that his sv% when stopping difficult shots was actually very good. His year last year was because he was (literally, of all starters), the worst in the league at stopping easy and medium shots. That contrasts with the previous year where he was average or above average in both disciplines.

    That tells me its a mental issue, a focus issue, not a mechanical one, and that’s one of the reasons why he’s ripe for a rebound.

    AsiaOil: as in more than 40 starts in a season

    Hmmm, you’re actually squeezing the parameters of the bet offside, wouldn’t you say?

    My bet is on the sv% reversion, not on the number of games played. Games played is a circumstantial result not in control of the goalie.

    Let’s use Talbot for example.

    Suppose next year he has an (unsurprising) dip to say .905 (in line with, say, Dubnyk, Varlamov, and others).

    The next year, someone signs him (because of his history) as a backup (just like Dubnyk was slated to be this year, behind Smith). Talbot lights it up and puts up (to me, again, an unsurprising) .930. The problem of course is, he may or may not actually get anointed a starter that year. That will depend on whether the player he’s behind struggles enough to allow him to displace him as the starter.

    He will have demonstrated, as I expect, that he’s starter calibre, but his games played may or may not reflect that, at the very least until til the year after. But he’ll have done exactly what I’m expecting he’ll have done.

    That’s how it played out this year for Dubnyk. He only got the shot at it realistically this year because of how bad Mike Smith played. If Smith had been up to his usual standard, Dubie would not have been a starter, despite his solid play. And in all likelihood, would not have had the chance to move to Minnesota and get the accolades he got this year, despite the fact that his rebound is actually not surprising.

    Ditto for Scrivens next year. I expect he’ll rebound. I also expect the Oilers to go out and get someone to designate as the starting goalie, and Scrivens will be tagged as backup. But he’s only going to get past the 40 mark if whoever that is flounders. If that starter doesn’t flounder and is instead post-rebound (say, Enroth), Scrivens’ opportunity will stretch out another year. Even the rebound may take longer without enough games played.

    See what I mean?

    It’s the sv% that we’re betting on, not the GP.

  164. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    You’re absolutely right. I cannot account for a vast majority of things, and included among that is coaching changes, team changes, injuries, and the like.

    The flip side, though, is this: part of what surprised me about this result is just how strong it was. Think on it for a second: 43 goalies in a decade made it to 1,300 saves, and the only one that demonstrably failed after that was third from the bottom on that list.

    The other one still likely to fail (Fasth) was second from the bottom. The one at the bottom just signed today for two more years at league minimum as a “cheap, capable backup”.

    The rest of them had a ridiculously high carryover overall from early to late sv%, with a slight bias to improvement.

    You have to kind of mull on the situation to try to understand: how is it possible to get results like this? With all the manner of variation that would be involved in this group of individuals, like the kind you just mentioned? Teams, coaches, teammates, injuries … how is it even possible for the results to be this rock solid?

    Is it just coincidence as AsiaOil insists?

    To my mind, the answer is this: goalies without the basic characteristics for success – reflexes, positioning, habits, focus, etc. – almost never make it to 1,300 saves. This is the key. They wash out well before then. There’s actually a ton of guys who came to the NHL and played just a game or two and were gone. For a team to invest 60 games in a goalie, basically one entire starters worth of season, at the single most important position on the ice and one that can singlehandedly win or lose a game – this is a massive investment.

    Massive.

    So buried in there I think is your answer, which is that the average 60 to 70 games that 1,300 svs represents is such an incredibly difficult barrier to reach, to even get close to, that by then you are dealing with guys that are already the elite of the elite at their position. The only question is whether they’re elite enough to play in the best league in the world. But elite they are.

    And as it always is with the best of the elite in any endeavour, the cream will find a way to rise from there, regardless of circumstance.

    Physical problems? Doctors and physios and personal trainers will be on it.

    Mechanical or technique problems? Coaches will be changed.

    Mental focus? Call in the sports psychologists and the ‘head tracking specialists’ and whatever else you can find.

    But if you’ve got someone who made it to 1,300, especially someone who did really well to that point, you’re already dealing with the finest raw material in the world.

    That’s why I think we see what we see.

  165. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    Hate to be a stick in the mud – but playing around with SP of backup goalies is not a particularly useful endeavor. Backups are a dime a dozen and the only reason a team like the Oilers is interested in some of them is their potential to become at least a 1A starter. They are not interested in dealing asset to obtain Talbot the backup – those guys are commodities which you acquire at the cheapest price (cap hit) to serve a function (starting 20 games or so). If you have a solid starter you can also flip a promising backup to capture value added (like Talbot). So 40 games is a pretty low bar to qualify as a “starter” and I feel I’m being generous. Talbot had 36 games this past season and is clearly still seen as a backup – he’d only need 4 extra games to qualify under my criteria even if he stayed in NY.

    My position is that sv% of these backups is completely in their control – but most of them do not have the mental or physical tools to make the jump – and this has already been proven to a large degree with the guys we are talking about. I would bet that at least 3 of the 4 guys on your list will not be starters in 2 years time – even using my broad definition – the only one I’m even modestly unsure about is Talbot due to the limited record. Dubnyk got another shot because he was playing well and because he has a record as a starter. Sure Smith was not great – but DD only started 16 games in ARZ – not much different than a typical backup. He got another chance because he had a record as a starter and people in MIN were impressed with his skill set and technique (not just his raw numbers). I can send you links that give direct quotes from Bob Mason. He talks about DD’s technique and form – not his SP numbers as the reason he was obtained. It’s the same reason two of the best goaltending orgs int he league took a look at DD last year (MON & NASH) but saw that his “issues” were not going to be cleared up before his contract ended – so no opportunity to capture value that season..

    It’s the “who cares” test we are dealing with. Who cares if Scrivens, Ramo, Talbot or Neuvirth’s SP reverts if they are still backups – even if it does but have failed to become a starter – they are of little interest or value and are entirely replaceable at little cost.

  166. rickithebear says:

    Jersey needs goal scoring:
    #6 + Ruutu (5.0m 1yr) -> Yakupov (2.5M 2yr) + Nikitin (4.5M 1yr)
    Not transacted till Mcd; Eich; Hanifin; Strome; Marner gone.

    Yak was on a 23G season pace ounce he got a TOI bump under Nelson
    But he is an ADD boat anchor. (Drags teamates down)
    on a -26 season pace under Nelson.
    we have better Goal scoring and Defensive winger options.

    Goal production
    Hall
    30G pace before injury
    Pouliot
    32G pace under Nelson
    Eberle
    31G pace under Nelson
    RNH
    38G 80 point pace once Lander got a TOI bump and faced tougher comp.
    Lander
    20g 56p pace with shift push from nelson

    Crosby had a 60g 150P age NHLE
    his rookie year
    39G 102P
    suggest a rookie season for
    Mcdavid
    32g 82p

    Yak is secondary Goal scoring figure on this team.
    His targeting is of a standard lower than Slepyshev and yakimov.
    He sure is not going to Get PP time over Lander!
    who drove our PP at end of year.

    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle-Lander
    Hall-Lander-Mcdavid-XXX

  167. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    Agree with a lot of that G – but there is another massive hurdle after 1300 saves which is more relevant to GMs making decisions – who can become a solid NHL starter. Agree that the 1300 NHL save barrier is huge – but it can accumulate in dribs and drabs over several years and usually does. So in this sense we completely agree – making it to 50 games / 1300 saves with a decent SP very likely means you will have some sort of career spanning past 200 games. This is an interesting result and identifies a significant hurdle.

    But starting is the creme de la creme of goaltending – it’s bloody hard – and it’s valuable to understand. As I said in my previous post – backups are commodities – only real reason to study them if to try pick out unrealized value in some of these 1300 save guys as a potential starters. That’s why Talbot is the only guy who really interests me on your list – very unusual profile and development path – and only guy with any starter potential at all IMHO.

  168. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Who you taking at 6 Ricki ? If that deal was even Larson and Ruutu id jump on it, Yak has some attributes I value but the defensive awareness is just too weak.

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