TRADING JUSTIN SCHULTZ

The Edmonton Oilers under Peter Chiarelli made their first significant moves since the end of the regular season. After drafting Connor McDavid, the new GM added three men in their 20’s: Griffin Reinhart (21), Eric Gryba (27) and Cam Talbot (turns 28 this week). The team is adding players who are either in their prime or could grow along with the McDavid cluster—that’s a great idea in theory—and hope they have added three useful pieces.

What’s next? I think the Oilers may be active this week but am unsure about how many long term deals in free agency will be offered by the team. Edmonton is more likely to spend in free agency next season, when Teddy Purcell, Niki Nikitin, Boyd Gordon and Ben Scrivens come off the books (that’s over $14M).

My guess is the Oilers kick some tires (Sekera, 29; Franson, 27; Green, 29) on younger players before trying to sign a shorter deal with Paul Martin or Christian Ehrhoff. I could see Francois Beauchemin on a short-term deal (can HE see himself in Edmonton? That’s a better question) but there are few names available who look like longer solutions for the Oilers.

TRADE?

I think a trade is possible and may be preferable. The obvious candidates are the Boston Bruins (Chiarelli’s former team) and the San Jose Sharks (Todd McLellan’s old crew). One wonders about Vancouver too, they’re having trouble moving Kevin Bieksa so perhaps they’ll decide to dangle another blue (Oilers appear somewhat set RH side on their second and third pairing with Mark Fayne and Eric Gryba). IF the team does a trade, it’s probably wise to assume a young player will be heading out of town.

OFFER SHEET!

I believe that may have been the plan, but Calgary’s move to grab Dougie Hamilton probably puts the boots to that idea. I imagine we’ll hear about Hamilton’s signing a long term deal Monday or Tuesday, can’t imagine the Flames don’t get that deal done. It was a nice dream, truly.

POSSIBLE ROSTER

I think we can begin to piece this roster together, with the understanding that some of the pieces (top pairing D, possibly a two-way forward) are still to come.

  • GOAL: Cam Talbot, Ben Scrivens
  • LEFT DEFENSE: Oscar Klefbom, Niki Nikitin, Griffin Reinhart, Andrew Ference
  • RIGHT DEFENSE: Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne, Eric Gryba
  • CENTER: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid (projected), Anton Lander, Boyd Gordon
  • LEFT WING: Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Leon Draisaitl, Matt Hendricks, Luke Gazdic
  • RIGHT WING: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Teddy Purcell, Rob Klinkhammer, Iiro Pakarinen

Areas I can see changing? The Justin Schultz position (meaning either he or Fayne moving); the Leon Draisaitl situation (bringing in that two-way winger I’ve talked about since Pisani left); the Gazdic/Pakarinen situation (Chiarelli’s Boston teams had swingmen who could play center, Daniel Paille types).

CHIARELLI’S LIST

  1. Draft McDavid
  2. Find a quality goalie option
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for real value and not a damn pick)

I believe Chiarelli will get a defenseman this week, but am not convinced it’s going to be a free agent. Sekera fits but few others do. Green? He’s going to be very expensive, folks. Franson? I like him, don’t know if Chiarelli would sign him without moving Justin Schultz.

TRADING SCHULTZ?

I think it could happen. If you look at the defensemen Chiarelli brought in (Reinhart, Gryba) there’s a clear need for a puck-moving type defender. However, Schultz may not be the player Chiarelli wants in that spot, perhaps he’ll like a more substantial defender like Oscar Klefbom in that role (but with more experience). I think that’s a trade, to be honest. That’s the play here. Trade Justin Schultz in a package, this week.

Note: Speeds is knocking it out of the park on free agency these days, great insight for Oilers fans. His latest is here.

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261 Responses to "TRADING JUSTIN SCHULTZ"

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  1. oliveoilers says:

    So, 3 on 3 OT, who’d ya go with?

    I’m going with Ference, Schultz, Purcell triple threat.

  2. pocession charge says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    OK.I don’t have a problem with that.I’m making the point that Schultz is quite a vital cog to the Oilers as constructed.

    It means those who are proposing that he has no redeeming qualities and we should just get rid of him and be better off as a result are talking out their asses, no?For all his faults, he’s the best at certain things on the Oiler D squad.Just getting rid of that (the position of many) would be a disaster.It would.

    Now go ahead and replace him by adding say Sekera and Ehrhoff (recognizing the injury risk), and now you have all kinds of options.But those guys are not going to come cheap.Neither is anyone else who can actually replace what Schultz can do.Very few seem to acknowledge any of those points.

    Its all “Justin Schultz is garbage and we need to just get rid of him”.

    Nope.

    To repeat the point: Ference is the real garbage.He adds nothing to this team.He makes every teammate worse. He could be replaced by the next four guys on the AHL roster and the team is better.I bet both Gryba and Reinhart are already better than he is.

    If he is on next years team as anything more than 7D, it will be a bad team.

    I agree with your argument GM and that is coming from someone who would rather have an alternative player. It makes better sense to keep Justin, try to pump his boxcars, and re-evaluate mid-winter. I think they will attempt to trade for Burns at some point because of the player type and relationship to TMac. What do you think SJ would realistically ask in return? What would you pay?

  3. Lowetide says:

    I’d go McDavid, Hall, Marc Pouliot myself.

  4. wheatnoil says:

    I’m going with:

    Linus Omark – Linus Omark – Linus Omark

  5. Amadeus says:

    speeds,

    speeds: Probably not planning on it, but I wonder if the timing would affect the decision?If the offer sheet involved a 1st and 3rd (or more), and EDM didn’t think of BOS as a playoff team, and it’s early enough that there would still UFA options, they could conceivably walk away.

    My thinking is that based on Boston’s actions at the draft (Regarding accepting a lower offer because of Chia (Offer Sheet threat)/Neely bad blood), they’ll want to pull off some revenge. They probably know that Chia would accept anything close to QO of around $3.75, so it would be hilarious if they made an offer of $5M per, hoping that it would put the screws to Chia. However, I think Chia would gladly accept a 1st and a 3rd.

  6. pocession charge says:

    oliveoilers:
    So, 3 on 3 OT, who’d ya go with?

    I’m going with Ference, Schultz, Purcell triple threat.

    3 on 3 would be perfect for Schultz’s skill set. CMD, RNH, Hall, Nurse and Klefbom should all be front and center.

  7. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Its all “Justin Schultz is garbage and we need to just get rid of him”.
    Nope.

    Schultz without RNH (Career)
    GF/60 1.79
    GA/60 3.12
    CF% 45.1%
    ZS% 47.2%

    Not garbage, but lordy, it aint good.

  8. RexLibris says:

    This thread here tonight…this is the reason we keep coming back.

  9. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide:
    I’d go McDavid, Hall, Marc Pouliot myself.

    I forgot about Benoit (don’t call me Marc-Antoinette) Pouliot. He’d be a great 3 on 3 choice, too.

  10. rickithebear says:

    Hamilton:

    Only thing that might have a person worried is

    Last 2 years against the playoff teams of the Pacific
    12gm -6
    they play 20gm
    20gm -10????

    Versus EDM ARZ ?????????????

    last years versus central teams.
    16gm +3
    they play 20 gm
    20gm +4 ?????????

  11. PaperDesigner says:

    Just a thought… Could Justin Schultz’s major problem be his conditioning? By eye, his problem is that he is a ‘lollygagger’, which could be explained by his high minutes totals plus apparent unimpressive fitness. One slows down when one is tired.

    If that’s the problem, that is at least solvable this off-season, no?

  12. pocession charge says:

    rickithebear:
    Hamilton:

    Only thing that might have a person worried is

    Last 2 years against the playoff teams of the Pacific
    12gm -6
    they play 20gm
    20gm -10????

    Versus EDM ARZ ?????????????

    last years versus central teams.
    16gm +3
    they play 20 gm
    20gm +4 ?????????

    I’m willing to bet DSF anything that the Coyotes will not sweep the Oilers this year in embarrassing fashion.

  13. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    It ain’t. It sure ain’t.

    26th.

    Sigh.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Here is everyone Taylor Hall has played at least 300 5v5 TOI with over his career.

    The number is the net GF60-GA/60 without Hall.

    ie. Eberle without Hall is GF/60 =2.45 GA= 2.94 = -.049 net goals/60 when not with Hall

    Spot the outlier:

    EBERLE, JORDAN -0.49
    DUBNYK, DEVAN -0.49
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN -0.20
    KHABIBULIN, NIKOLAI -0.39
    GAGNER, SAM -0.34
    PETRY, JEFF -0.48
    SMID, LADISLAV -0.41
    HEMSKY, ALES 0.06
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -1.23
    HORCOFF, SHAWN -0.5
    SCHULTZ, NICK -0.46
    GILBERT, TOM -0.36
    WHITNEY, RYAN -0.07
    PECKHAM, THEO -0.60
    POTTER, COREY -0.49
    FERENCE, ANDREW 0.11

    I’m glad that both Ference and Nick Schultz qualified for this exercise as you can’t leave Schultz results at their feet.

    I don’t think they’ll miss him.

  15. G Money says:

    oliveoilers,

    I’d go with Ference, Gazdic, Gordon.

    Grit and leadership, intimidation, and faceoffs.

    What more do you need?

  16. pocession charge says:

    PaperDesigner:
    Just a thought… Could Justin Schultz’s major problem be his conditioning? By eye, his problem is that he is a ‘lollygagger’, which could be explained by his high minutes totals plus apparent unimpressive fitness. One slows down when one is tired.

    If that’s the problem, that is at least solvable this off-season, no?

    If by conditioning you mean lack of urgency, lack of intensity, and phobia of physical contact, then yes.

  17. G Money says:

    pocession charge,

    Burns would be a terrific get, no doubt.

    Brings almost everything the Oilers lack.

    I’m finding it tough to imagine what we can send SJ without it causing just as many holes as it fixes.

    And I’m OK with trading from strength to fix the D (e.g. Hall for OEL), but the problem you run into there is age. Burns is 30, so his prime years are now and a few years, not the next decade.

  18. go_oil says:

    I appreciate what Chia Pete (I love whoever coined that) has set up the roster heading into July 1st… there appear to be lots of options depending on who they target and can actually get. If they can sign 1 of Sekera or Franson or Green, I think that would be an upgrade and a chance to jettison a D if need be.

    I’d like to see them buy out Nikitin and upgrade somehow – even Ehrhoff, Martin or Michalek on short term contracts. Doesn’t it make sense to do the buyout?

    I also appreciate the overpayment of Reinhart… I think there’s value there of another young D growing with the young cluster. And as much as I loved Marincin, I think it’s an upgrade, and there are more than enough LD bubbling under (Simpson, Musil, Lalleglia) behind Nurse and Klefbom.

    I think the next trick is making sure none of the young D will play too soon… even if it means Nikitin sticking around as competition in the Fall.

    Schultz was counted on too early and was given too high expectations… I think there’s a player there, but he’s unfortunately being paid too much and too high in the batting order. I think he can learn to defend, but he needs his confidence back. I think the biggest mistake of the MacT regime was taking confidence away from the likes of Dubnyk (and not delivering a goalie) and Petry (and not delivering a defensemen), and putting Schultz up on a pedestal.

    There’s real risk keeping Schultz at his qualifying offer, because he didn’t deliver offensively given his zone starts. If they get Franson or Green I think it’s okay to trade Schultz or even let him walk.

    Can we just get the proper vets in place and proper development pace going for the younger players, finally? I think that’ll be key for July 1st.

  19. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    Its all “Justin Schultz is garbage and we need to just get rid of him”.
    Nope.

    Schultz without RNH (Career)
    GF/60 1.79
    GA/60 3.12
    CF% 45.1%
    ZS% 47.2%

    Not garbage, but lordy, it aint good.

    Neither are the centres he’s played with when he’s not with RNH. In order of TOI, they are “Can’t play center for us at an NHL level” Sam Gagner, Boyd “Shawshank Zone Starts” Gordon, Anton Lander who finally broke out just this year, Derek Roy for half a year, rookie Leon Draisaitl, and about 100 minutes of Horcoff.

    Not exactly an offensive murderer’s row.

    RNH hasn’t had an offensive defenseman to feed him the puck other than Schultz (for all his faults). Schultz hasn’t had a great offensive centre to play with in his career other than RNH. Perhaps that skews the WOWY numbers for this whole team more than anything else.

  20. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Hall is the only consistent river pusher they have. He’s the only guy that actually continues to score at a reasonable pace sans Schultz. It’s not true for almost anyone else, especially last year. He’s a great player, but he’s no Ovechkin – he can only play one position.

  21. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Neither are the centres he’s played with when he’s not with RNH. In order of TOI, they are “Can’t play center for us at an NHL level” Sam Gagner, Boyd “Shawshank Zone Starts” Gordon, Anton Lander who finally broke out just this year, Derek Roy, Leon Draisaitl, and Horcoff.

    Not exactly an offensive murderer’s row.

    RNH hasn’t had an offensive defenseman to feed him the puck other than Schultz (for all his faults). Schultz hasn’t had a great offensive centre to play with in his career other than RNH. Perhaps that skews the WOWY numbers for this whole team more than anything else.

    To some extent yes, same as the Hamilton example I put up earlier in the thread.

    RNH’s numbers do get worse without Schultz, but Schultz falls off the face of the earth.

    Aside from last year with Schultz’ extreme deployment, I don’t think you can reasonably say that Schultz is zooming RNH.

  22. G Money says:

    PaperDesigner: If that’s the problem, that is at least solvable this off-season, no?

    There’s a lot of chatter that Schultz’s biggest off season commitment to fitness is executed on the golf course. Don’t know how true it is, but given that my nearly-50-year-old biceps are bigger than his, I’d say it might very well be true.

    There’s a few interviews this year that suggest Schultz may finally be realizing that fitness matters in hockey, especially when every other guy you’re facing on the ice spent hours a day in the gym during the offseason.

    We can only hope. Signing him for a reasonable price and having him turn into the player he looked like he would be the first half of the Krueger season would go a huge way towards moving this D corps back to respectability.

  23. pocession charge says:

    G Money: There’s a lot of chatter that Schultz’s biggest off season commitment to fitness is executed on the golf course.Don’t know how true it is, but given that my nearly-50-year-old biceps are bigger than his, I’d say it might very well be true.

    There’s a few interviews this year that suggest Schultz may finally be realizing that fitness matters in hockey, especially when every other guy you’re facing on the ice spent hours a day in the gym during the offseason.

    We can only hope.Signing him for a reasonable price and having him turn into the player he looked like he would be the first half of the Krueger season would go a huge way towards moving this D corps back to respectability.

    So you’re saying if he takes steroids then all his problems will be solved. Oh! No, sorry, that was what I was thinking just now.

  24. go_oil says:

    How about the ultimate bet, DSF? Who wins a cup first (or perhaps even a pennant, Lowetide style?) – Oilers or Flames since you think the Flames are ahead on a rebuild…(or Canucks who I think you’re a primary fan of???)

    I’m glad the Flames are making it interesting… I’ d love to see the Battle of Alberta back to where it used to be. But I will bet the Oilers win a pennant/Stanley cup sooner.

    Witness?

    I think the losing side should wear the opposing jersey on the winning side’s choice of blog. I was born in Calgary and work in Vancouver, so I do have a lot of folks I’d make this bet with.

  25. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Hall is the only consistent river pusher they have.He’s the only guy that actually continues to score at a reasonable pace sans Schultz.It’s not true for almost anyone else, especially last year.He’s a great player, but he’s no Ovechkin – he can only play one position.

    The median net GF/60 without Hall is about -.5G/60

    Schultz is -1.23

    You can’t ignore that.

  26. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil,

    You post made me go look at RNH with Petry as well since he was the only competent Dman who wouldn’t have played with Schulz, who also played with all the other incompetent centers

    Schultz
    With RNH
    GF/60 3.28
    GA/60 2.74
    Net GF/60 +0.54
    CF% 47.8
    ZS 64.5%

    Without RNH
    GF/60 1.79
    GA/60 3.12
    Net GF/60 -1.33
    CF% 45.1
    ZS 47.2%

    Petry
    With RNH
    GF/60 2.19
    GA/60 2.71
    Net GF/60 -0.52
    CF% 49.4
    ZS 57.4%

    Petry Without RNH
    GF/60 2.00
    GA/60 2.61
    Net GF/60 -0.61
    CF% 46.9
    ZS 42.9%

    So Schultz’s offensive boost to RNH is clear. Petry doesn’t bring that.

    Schultz falls hard without RNH, whereas Petry drop just a bit in Net GF/60

    I don’t think you can lay Schultz’s big drop away from RNH simply at the feet of who he played with away from RNH. Petry would have seen the same thing, and he didn’t.

    Petry played with those same players, with tougher zone starts and didn’t drop much.

    Didn’t bring as much to RNH as Schultz did in terms of GF, but the massive disparity Schultz has away from RNH cannot be explained away without implicating Schultz as the main culprit.

  27. dangilitis says:

    Ryan: Ryan says:
    June 28, 2015 at 5:16 pm

    Justin Schultz plus a 2016 3rd rounder for Brent Burns.

    j schultz plus anything for d man who can play the position would be a fucking amazing deal all around, it would be a clear win and chia would redeem himself for some sloppy trades during the draft

  28. Bar_Qu says:

    oliveoilers:
    So, 3 on 3 OT, who’d ya go with?

    I’m going with Ference, Schultz, Purcell triple threat.

    Woodguy, G Money & Wheatnoil

    They’ll math it into the net

  29. Bank Shot says:

    We wouldn’t even be concerning ourselves with Schultz right now if Chiarelli had landed Dougie Hamilton.

    Ironically he was most likely done in by the threat of an offer sheet.

    Had he not threatened the offer sheet he probably could have been in on the bidding for this player and successfully kept him from joining the Flames.

    Cautionary tale about the soundness of throwing offer sheets around.

  30. dangilitis says:

    Woogie63:
    With the new 3 v. 3 format Shultz is not going anywhere.His skating is going to increase his value.

    Since results will be decided more often in 3 v. 3 and those points will be recorded.It is possible Shultz will have +40 points next year.

    I doubt that he will get as many pts 3 vs 3 as you think, because he will wander aimlessly and not pick up his man going the other way. That is the problem with the guy.

  31. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Don’t trade Schultz unless it’s for an upgrade. If we Marincin him, we will regret it.

    I believe the young man will be true to his word and actually come to camp motivated, fit, stronger, and determined to play a harder game. I want to see him paired with a bona fide LHD before we ship him away.

    Sekera-Schultz (Keith-Seabrook lite: heavy O-zone starts)
    Klefbom-Fayne (Hjalmarsson-Oduya lite: heavy D-zone starts)
    Reinhart-Gryba (Bit of chaos but a lot of MOAR bigger and grit
    Ference

    Nikitin traded with 50% retained for a 2017 7th rounder.

    On that note, I’d also trade Purcell with $1.5M retained and sign Frolik.

    Hall-McDavid-Yak/Eberle
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle/Yak
    Draisaitl-Lander-Frolik
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer
    Pakarinen

  32. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting. For the record, I wasn’t trying to argue that Schultz’s drop away from RNH is entirely quality of team but that it contributes. The fact that it doesn’t for Petry is likely because he’s a complete defenseman.

    Schultz is most certainly not a complete defenseman. However, his skill is useful. That pop in goals he gives RNH is incredibly valuable. Even with a complete D-man like Petry, RNH gives up more than he gets.

    It lends credence to your theory that Schultz is elite from the offensive blue line in but terrible elsewhere.

    Ultimately, my concerns with Schultz are usage and cost, which I suspect yours are too. It’s just that he brings a useful skill and therefore he’s third in the list of Oilers’ D-men who desperately need to be upgraded for me.

  33. wheatnoil says:

    Bar_Qu: Woodguy, G Money & Wheatnoil

    They’ll math it into the net

    Personally, I’m too busy not watching the games to score a goal. 🙂

  34. G Money says:

    Woodguy: The median net GF/60 without Hall is about -.5G/60
    Schultz is -1.23
    You can’t ignore that.

    Not ignoring it. Just not using that as the singular benchmark of what J Schultz brings to the table without looking at the rest of it.

    For example, to complete your table above (you might not recognize it, but you’re selectively leaving out a key part of the data that probably best shows Schultz’s contribution, and not the first time…).

    RNH w/o Schultz
    GF/60 1.74
    GA/60 3.39
    GF% 33.9
    CF% 48.7
    ZS% 52%

    RNH w/o Petry
    GF/60 2.94
    GA/60 3.08
    GF% 48.9
    CF% 49.3
    ZS% 63%

    Hard to compare the two with that kind of ZS change, but that GF% change is brutal. It’s not like 52% is someone being hammered with Gordon territory.

    It gets complicated, but the points above in toto should be clear – there is a substantial boost in RNHs scoring when with Schultz, beyond what you’d expect even with the ZS boost, and a substantial dropoff when without, even accounting for ZS. Not just RNH – that’s generally true for almost every player that I could find. Pretty much all did better CF% and GF% with him than without him. ZS is a big part of that, but you can’t give every player positive zone starts.

    He’s a key part of the offense, for all his warts. Again – its an interesting read that every one of his three coaches used him in that role and gave him a ridiculous number of minutes. Either they’re seeing some sort of the same value, or maybe they’re all the same kinda dumb.

    Trade Justin Schultz for a pick, or simply refuse to sign him and walk away, as so many propose to do because “he’s worthless”, and the Oilers will do so at their own peril.

    If you can trade him for a D, or sign one UFA, that can do those things AND actually play defense, brilliant. Gotta do it.

    If you can’t, if your only proposed solution is to add Reinhart and Gryba to Ference and Nikitin and Fayne and Klefbom … oh man. Far far better to see if TMc can actually convince him to play defense a little bit and keep what he brings to the table (and which the Oilers simply don’t have anywhere else in their D corps).

  35. G Money says:

    Bar_Qu: Woodguy, G Money & Wheatnoil

    They’ll math it into the net

    Damn straight. You know that we will.

  36. Younger Oil says:

    I’d say run 3 lines for 3 on 3 OT.

    McDavid-Hall-Schultz (For O-Zone starts)

    Nuge-Eberle-Pouliot (Neutral zone starts)

    Gordon-Klefbom-Fayne (D-Zone starts)

    Possibly swapping Klefbom and Pouliot depending on who the other team is sending out.

  37. G Money says:

    Holy shnite, it’s past midnight and its a workday tomorrow. G’night peeps, let’s hope we have some good UFA or trade D news to perseverate on tomorrow!

  38. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’ll bet you a “Woodguy” that the Kings re-sign Sekera.

    Lombardi is very smart.

    Don’t forget he has Richards $5.75M and Voynov’s $4M to play with.

    I’ll take that bet DSF!
    *
    *
    *
    http://thehockeywriters.com/andrej-sekera-to-become-free-agent/

    With Lucic trade, Kings won’t be able to sign Andrej Sekera so he’ll hit the market. It was a major consideration for them. They like him.

    — Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) June 26, 2015

    Sekera would have been a nice fit for the Kings, but the team is currently projected to have just $4,952,273 left in cap space, according to General Fanager. That’s with Justin Williams (who they won’t be able to re-sign) and Jarret Stoll still sitting as UFAs who need to be replaced on the roster. The team will also be losing defensemen in addition to Sekera, with Robyn Regehr retiring and the team trading Jamie McBain to Boston in the Lucic deal.

    They also moved goaltender Martin Jones out in the Lucic deal and they’ll need to bring in a back-up goaltender to replace him. That’s before re-signing Nick Shore and Andy Andreoff, who are RFAs and, more importantly, before considering the situation for next summer when Lucic and Anze Kopitar will become UFAs.

    Sekera was a necessary casualty of the cap for Los Angeles and he may not be the last. The team may have to make another trade to make the cap work.

    *
    *
    *
    Oh hey! Look! I won!

    So even when you were proclaiming the Kings were going to re-sign Sekera and pulling BS out of your butt trying to make $7 million out of $4 million in cap room, the Kings had already moved on.

  39. Oilanderp says:

    The Gagner trade made me realize that life goes on.

    Trade Schultz’s rights now for whatever you can. Failing that, walk away. Use that money to find a serviceable replacement UFA.

    We should be building a team, not collecting individuals like hockey cards.

  40. CofC says:

    A lot of misguided thoughts about Schultz (as usual); He will develop, and thankfully management has had patience in dealing with him, rather than reacting like the fickle fanbase, bloggers and media types that would ride him out of town on his way up the developmental curve…

    Thank the hockey powers that be for moving Marincin (for a realistic return) rather than Schultz, who has far greater potential.

    Amen.

  41. Marc says:

    Good thread everyone. My two cents:

    Trading Schultz for less chaos would be completely inconsistent with Chia’s moves to date. Think about the team on the other side of the transaction. Assuming that they aren’t totally incompetent/batshit crazy, there are only three circumstances in which a team would willingly give up a defenceman who is better than Schultz, for Schultz:
    a. the defenceman they are giving up is better than Schultz now, but Schultz is likely to be better in the future
    b. the defenceman they are giving up is going to be a free agent soon and the team can’t or doesn’t want to pay the money he wants for a new contract so want to get something for him while they can
    c. Chia sweetens the pot with Yak or Lander or the 2016 first.

    In every single one of the above options, the Oilers would effectively be prioritising winning next season over the longer term interests of the team. But in trading for Reinhart, a guy who projects to be a top four D in the future but likely won’t be next season, instead of a guy who will be a top four D next season, Chia effectively prioritised the future over winning next season.

    16 and 33 absolutely could have got a top 4 D for next season – a Coburn or a Phaneuf for example. But that’s not what Chia chose to do. He picked a guy that will grow with the core, not one who will protect the core next season but be gone or in decline when the core hit their peak.

    Thus far Chia has shown zero interest in sacrificing pieces that could be a useful part of the team in two or three years for marginal improvement next season. Trading Schultz for ‘less chaos’ would go entirely against the grain of that.

  42. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    He’s a key part of the offense, for all his warts

    For one line.

    Outside of the one line he’s the worst drag on goal differential the Oilers have.

    I think WheatnOil hit it when he referred my theory that Jultz is elite in the ozone, but he can’t get you there, and he’s simply terrible in his own end.

    He’s elite with RHN/Hall because they can get the puck from the dzone to the ozone themselves AND are good finishers.

    That’s why Petry’s numbers don’t fall off nearly as much as Schultz’ do away from RNH/Hall.

    Petry drives possession and helps get the puck to the ozone, but isn’t much help once it gets there. That;’s ok as it has value for all lines.

    Schultz numbers fall off the cliff because he can’t fulfill his job as a Dman with regular or lesser NHL players.

    I don’t think I can make a case for keeping him around simply because he’s good with one line and kills the other lines.

    Now that the Oilers have McDavid there may be 2 lines that will find him useful, but man, he can’;t be a black hole away from those players.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Marc,

    We have no idea what Chia’s opinion of Schultz is.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    We wouldn’t even be concerning ourselves with Schultz right now if Chiarelli had landed Dougie Hamilton.

    Ironically he was most likely done in by the threat of an offer sheet.

    Had he not threatened the offer sheet he probably could have been in on the bidding for this player and successfully kept him from joining the Flames.

    Cautionary tale about the soundness of throwing offer sheets around.

    If chia actually made an offer with that threat or word got back he was negotiating an RFA, then leaving Chia out of the bidding and giving *some* priority to trading to a divisional rival is an interesting tool. Personally I blsme LT. Verdad ruined LT.

  45. Snowman says:

    Woodguy,

    I think you have some idea of what Chia’s opinion is. He said day one he likes players who play hard and hard on the puck. Schultz does neither.

    I can guess Chia probably likes the skill and doesn’t like the rest of his game.

  46. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Marc,

    We have no idea what Chia’s opinion of Schultz is.

    We’ll know more by tomorrow with the QA deadline.. MacT would have rented a crop duster with a sky sign months ago.

    Edit: on second thought he did. 1-800-1NORRIS

  47. Магия 10 says:

    go_oil: I appreciate what Chia Pete (I love whoever coined that)

    Ditto I tried Chia, Pet, but Chia Pete is better. Oddly I also like the usually boring locker room default: Cheesey.

  48. Marc says:

    Snowman:
    Woodguy,

    I think you have some idea of what Chia’s opinion is. He said day one he likes players who play hard and hard on the puck. Schultz does neither.

    I can guess Chia probably likes the skill and doesn’t like the rest of his game.

    Chia signed Torey Krug as an undrafted free agent out of the NCAA, and he was a very similar player to Schultz coming out of college. That worked out pretty well for Boston.

    I’d be surprised if Chia didn’t want to at least see how Schultz responds to better coaching before dumping him.

  49. wheatnoil says:

    Marc: Chia signed Torey Krug as an undrafted free agent out of the NCAA, and he was a very similar player to Schultz coming out of college. That worked out pretty well for Boston.

    I’d be surprised if Chia didn’t want to at least see how Schultz responds to better coaching before dumping him.

    He also signed a tall Slovakian D-man with good possession numbers as one of his first acts in Boston, but that didn’t make him wait to see what he had in Marincin before dumping him.

    (Okay, not exactly the same thing, but the point is that just because he had success with a similar player type doesn’t mean he is necessarily patient with the Oilers version of it.)

  50. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Chia signed Torey Krug as an undrafted free agent out of the NCAA, and he was a very similar player to Schultz coming out of college. That worked out pretty well for Boston.

    I’d be surprised if Chia didn’t want to at least see how Schultz responds to better coaching before dumping him.

    I’d agree that one more year after a long “come to Jesus” meeting him Chia, McLellen and Schultz before Schultz starts his summer work outs.

  51. Marc says:

    wheatnoil: He also signed a tall Slovakian D-man with good possession numbers as one of his first acts in Boston, but that didn’t make him wait to see what he had in Marincin before dumping him.

    (Okay, not exactly the same thing, but the point is that just because he had success with a similar player type doesn’t mean he is necessarily patient with the Oilers version of it.)

    For what it’s worth, Chia was also part of Team Canada’s management in 2013 when Schultz was selected to go to the World Championship.

  52. Yeti says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Don’t trade Schultz unless it’s for an upgrade. If we Marincin him, we will regret it.

    I believe the young man will be true to his word and actually come to camp motivated, fit, stronger, and determined to play a harder game. I want to see him paired with a bona fide LHD before we ship him away.

    Sekera-Schultz (Keith-Seabrook lite: heavy O-zone starts)
    Klefbom-Fayne (Hjalmarsson-Oduya lite: heavy D-zone starts)
    Reinhart-Gryba (Bit of chaos but a lot of MOAR bigger and grit
    Ference

    Nikitin traded with 50% retained for a 2017 7th rounder.

    On that note, I’d also trade Purcell with $1.5M retained and sign Frolik.

    Hall-McDavid-Yak/Eberle
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle/Yak
    Draisaitl-Lander-Frolik
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer
    Pakarinen

    Yes all day. Now just get out there and get ‘er done!

  53. wheatnoil says:

    Ultimately, with Schultz, I feel a bit better because the shine seems to have wore off him for management. The biggest concern with Schultz was that, despite his limitations, the GM saw him as a future Norris candidate and I lived in fear of them offering him a 7 x 6 contract.

    If management is going to evaluate him and treat him for what he is, a D-man with incredibly elite skills in one area but severe deficiencies in others, then I’m much more content to give him another year. Now, though, we wait to see what signs we have of what Chia thinks of him.

    It’s also important to remember that Schultz’s lollygagging seems to have gotten worse since his rookie year (at least by my eye). He didn’t start as bad, so maybe McLellan can get him back there.

  54. wheatnoil says:

    Marc,

    Good point. We’ll find out soon because that first contract will be a tell.

  55. Last Chance says:

    Here we go again. TRADE LANDER,TRADE PETRY,TRADE DUBYNK AND NOW TRADE SCHULTZ.

    SOON TO FOLLOW TRADE , EBERLE,HALL, MCDAVID.

    The problem with the Oilers has been with the coaching. They hired a good Volkswagon (over his head) coach in the past to work on a Jaguar. The car didn’t run well …so we begin replacing the Jaguar ‘s parts for more Volkswagon parts. Then we wonder why their is still no improvement.

    We should focus on becoming the best coached and managed team in the NHL. It will take 2 years before the management and coaching significantly impacts the team. Throw more valuable assets overboard for nothing at that point if you need to.

  56. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil: It’s also important to remember that Schultz’s lollygagging seems to have gotten worse since his rookie year (at least by my eye). He didn’t start as bad, so maybe McLellan can get him back there.

    He has not changed his game, its just the definition of what he does has changed.

    He was not “lollygagging” with the puck when in he came into the league. TV commentators noted him as being someone who does not panic because he looked calm with the puck.

  57. frjohnk says:

    Willis watched Reinharts games with the Islanders and gives a scouting report

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/06/29/a-scouting-report-on-new-edmonton-oilers-defenceman-griffin-reinhart/

  58. pts2pndr says:

    Re Schultz I am somewhat curious if the coaching or lack thereof is not at least partially to blame for Schultz lack of improvement. He really never had a steady D partner. Eakins chse the blender approach to his D pairings! Might it not be wise to see 30 games with real coaching before we call my for Shultz’s head!

  59. Bling says:

    Woodguy,

    Fascinating discussion on Schultz.

    I’ve gone back and forth on this, but I really think he should be kept around.

    Here are my arguments (most brought up by others, G. Money et al):

    1) Staples’ scoring chance data shows him to be our best D at creating scoring chances, especially with Petry now gone. WG, I hear your argument about Schultz only contributing with Hall/RNH and being a drag on everyone else. Thing is the other lines were varying degrees of junk.

    2) Vollman sledgehammer – http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts. Schultz is in the bottom right quadrant (sheltered) but almost straddling the 2 way quadrant (top right quadrant). He put up a blue bubble with respect to Corsi ON (granted just barely). He actually improved from 12/13 and 13/14, though he was also getting more favourable match-ups last year.

    Ryan Ellis put up a similar number with similar deployment two years ago before breaking out last season. Keith Yandle also had a similar season two seasons ago. Both guys played on teams that were much better than the Oilers.

  60. Bling says:

    Here’s a more complete list of comparable players to Schultz over the past 2 seasons.

    I looked at the Vollman Sledgehammer for players who fulfilled the following criteria:

    A) GP>50
    B) Similar usage to Schultz in 14/15
    C) Blue Bubble (postive CORSI ON, between 0 and 4).

    *** Schultz was basically at the border of the bottom and top right handed quadrants (“sheltered” and “2-way”)

    Here’s who I found, CORSI ON in brackets.

    13/14:

    Ryan Ellis (0.1)
    Tyson Barrie (1.9)
    Hampus Lindolm (2.4)
    Ryan Murray (2.8)
    Thomas Hickey (2.0)
    Gudbranson (1.5)
    Keith Yandle (3.2)
    Oli Maata (1.5)
    Mark Streit (2.9)
    Eric Brewer (0.6)
    Dmitri Orlov (0.6)

    2014/2015:

    Clayton Stoner (2.7)
    Marek Zidlicky (1.0)
    Luke Schenn (0.7)
    Mark Streit (1.5)
    Rob Scuderi (1.5)

    My takeaways:

    Some decent players on that list, better than I expected.

    Let’s see how the players in 13/14 did in 14/15:

    Player // CORSI ON 13/14 // CORSI ON 14/15

    Ryan Ellis (0.1, 11.7)
    Barrie (1.9, -8.9)
    Lindholm (2.4, 2.8 ***shut down quadrant now, big step forward for this player)
    Ryan Murray (2.8, 0) *** only played 10 games.
    Thomas Hickey (2.0, 5.0)
    Gudbranson (1.5, -1.7 ***shut down quadrant)
    Keith Yandle (3.2, -0.5)
    Oli Maata (1.5, 1.9, ***2 way quadrant)
    Mark Streit (2.9, 1.5)
    Eric Brewer (0.6, -12 ***shut down quadrant)
    Dmitri Orlov (0.6) , not in NHL)

    CONCLUSIONS:

    1) There’s some decent players on this list. I think some good comps for Schultz are Ellis, Barrie, Hickey, Yandle, and Mark Streit. I’d take all of them on my team.
    2) Ellis took a gigantic step forward in his age 23 season, proving that with D, you never really know if/when that will ever happen. Lindholm is a better breed and did it at 21. Olli Maata also got better, but SSS. Gudbranson got better as well, being given worse zone starts and harder competition and almost coming out even. All these guys played on good teams, eh.
    3) Context matters. I don’t think Tyson Barrie forgot how to play hockey while putting up 53 points — I think his team stinks.
    4) Interesting and terrifying fact: over the last four seasons, here is the list of Oiler D with a blue bubble (positive CORSI ON):

    Schultz and Klef (both last season, the latter just barely).

    Schultz actually got better last season.

    I think he’s a good candidate to pull a Ryan Ellis if deployed in a similar fashion this season.

    With all his warts, Schultz is a legit top 4 D — albeit flawed — and now isn’t the time to trade him.

  61. rmutt.ac.th says:

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