Before we jump headlong into free-agent week, let’s review what Peter Chiarelli did at the draft. He added two new defensemen and sent one away. Did he move the team forward on the weekend in the short term? How many moves are left? Let’s ask the questions, one at a time:
By sending away Martin Marincin and adding Eric Gryba, was anything gained?
The ZS’s are the same, Corsi is fairly close and they even play the same minutes (close, anyway). The difference for Edmonton? Marincin is going to get better and is under control. Gryba, who had a pretty good year in 2013-14 with Marc Methot (in terms of possession), is a UFA next summer. If the club was going to deal Marincin, I had hoped it was going to be in a package for a top pairing D. As it is, they got a player in Gryba who can do the same job as Marincin did last season, but has nowhere close to the same future. Peter Chiarelli’s closest advisors, including Craig MacTavish, clearly didn’t value the player and Chiarelli either agreed or didn’t like him enough to keep him. This was in no way full value for Marincin, and he joins Jeff Petry and a host of other blue sent away before their time because Oilers. This is the kind of thing Edmonton fans are hoping Peter Chiarelli stops doing and the trade serves as a sober reminder that the front office still has the past inside the room.
Eric Gryba legitimately improved last two years. Third pairing guy now. (Feels like EDM has lots of those right now though.)
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) June 27, 2015
Is Cam Talbot really worth all of those picks?
Using the Lowetide list for trade value, the picks worked out to:
- No. 57 overall: (Actual pick: Jonas Siegenthaler) (Lowetide pick: Oliver Kylington)
- No. 79 overall: (Actual pick: Sergey Zborovskiy) (Lowetide pick: Ryan Pilon)
- No. 184 overall: (Actual pick: Adam Huska) (Lowetide pick: Vladimir Tkachev)
- G Cam Talbot
- No. 209 overall: (Actual pick: Ziyat Paigin) (Lowetide pick: Nathan Noel)
I think this was a great deal for Edmonton IF they can sign him to a longer deal and with the caveat sample size. Despite the wonderful work of Darcy McLeod and others, we need to remind ourselves that small sample sizes can be trouble. The quality available with those picks was good—my list shows there was a lot of unusual picks starting at No. 35, normally a sign of a dip in quality—but Cam Talbot looks fine from here and I’m not going to bitch if this goes south.
Was Griffin Reinhart worth all those picks?
I like the player, loved watching him in junior and he’s getting a bad rap online currently (he CAN actually skate. Honest. He’s not Paul Coffey but these Hal Gill diatribes are insane) and I believe he’ll have a productive career. Second pairing, lots of PK time, he’s certainly in that group of impressive young blue along with Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse. The cost was heavy:
- No. 16 overall: (Actual pick: Mathew Barzal) (Lowetide pick: Mathew Barzal)
- No. 33 overall: (Actual pick: Mitchell Stephens) (Lowetide pick: Jansen Harkins)
I love my picks and that was a lot to give up. That said, the Oilers (Chiarelli and Bob Green I expect had the most input here) liked him on draft day and imo that 2012 draft never did sit well with the scouts. So they got their man and the price was dear, very dear. One of the things I find somewhat incredible currently is the verbal surrounding Reinhart. I’ve heard smart people talk about him being another Colten Teubert, about his skating ability not being NHL calibre, and it being a joke that Darnell Nurse would be sent to Bakersfield while Reinhart stays in Edmonton.
Here’s an idea: Why don’t we acknowledge our own limitations (lots of talk about the Oilers not seeing Reinhart in the AHL and taking a chance, but we don’t seem bound by the same limitations in making our own opinions known, with extreme prejudice) and frame things in a way that makes us look less crazy? Can we agree that the price paid was very high? I think we can. Can we agree that Peter Chiarelli and Bob Green put their proverbial asses on the line? Yes, that too. Can we also acknowledge that Griffin Reinhart was an exceptional junior and that his junior career ended a year ago? Check.
I would have rather seen the picks made, that’s for sure. I think the Oilers might have drafted Evgeni Svechnikov and Travis Dermott and for me that has more value moving forward than Griffin Reinhart. I’m also aware that Peter Chiarelli is under enormous pressure to turn this team north—and soon—with defense and defensive depth being a primary issue. If Griffin Reinhart comes to camp, plays well, and ends up in Bakersfield (with Nurse here) would I be surprised? Hell no, I’m on record saying there’s very little chance Darnell Nurse loses a job based on his mobility and range of skills compared to the rest of the current blue.
That’s the bottom line for me. Reinhart MAY be NHL-ready. Projecting him as a solution this fall is jumping the gun. It’s his job to prove himself worthy of a spot and I’m not going to bet against him. You’ll be surprised with Griffin Reinhart’s mobility this fall (based on what I’m reading). Trust me. Was he worth the price? Not in my opinion.
What did they get? A big, strong defenseman with impressive wingspan, a physical edge and solid puck skills. His defensive play is a big part of his game and we should expect lots of tough EV time and a healthy dose of PK time when he arrives. He’s bona fide.
Griffin Reinhart quickly becoming a more polarizing figure then Nail Yakupov in Edmonton sports.
— The Original Connor (@ConnorHalley) June 27, 2015
Was there value on the table late? Did Edmonton get some?
Remember last week when I listed five players from the CHL that represented ‘extreme’ value based on even-strength points-per-game? Here’s what happened, with my final number, player name and their draft number plus destination:
- No. 27 Blake Speers—No. 67 to the New Jersey Devils
- No. 49 Dmytro Timashov—No. 125 to the Toronto Maple Leafs
- No. 84 Dante Salituro—was not drafted
- No. 87 Yakov Trenin—No. 55 to the Nashville Predators
- No. 116 Kay Schweri—was not drafted
I like much of the Oilers draft (McDavid, Bear, Jones, Marino and the big Russian Paigin) but there was valuable skill available throughout and they didn’t take what was available, even late. Grabbing Salituro or Schweri with a late pick could have helped this draft. While I’m at it, let’s list the entire draft, without trades, using the Lowetide list:
- No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid.
- No. 16 overall: C Mathew Barzal
- No. 33 overall: C Jansen Harkins
- No. 57 overall: D Oliver Kylington
- No. 79 overall: D Ryan Pilon
- No. 86 overall: C Andrew Mangiapane
- No. 117 overall: D Ethan Bear
- No. 124 overall: R Nikita Korostelev
- No. 154 overall: C Nathan Noel
- No. 184 overall: L Vladimir Tkachev
There are no goalies, and small forwards show up several times. Still, that’s a fine list, skill everywhere. OH, and my final selection, Tkachev? I had him ranked No. 67 overall.
Welcome to Edmonton, Connor. Don't mess up everything we've built the last 5 years! #FutureIsBright
— Taylor Hall (@hallsy04) June 26, 2015
Believe it or not, people were upset about this tweet. Come on. That’s funny! Anyone who can have a sense of humor after the last five seasons is alright in my books.
50-MAN LIST AT 40 NOW
- G Cam Talbot (As Casey Kasem would say ‘a new No. 1’)
- G Ben Scrivens (Backup, suspect for the entire season)
- G Laurent Brossoit (AHL starter had a good year, needs another)
- G Eetu Laurikainen (A great damn bet)
- D Mark Fayne (A big part of next year’s team)
- D Oscar Klefbom (The future and the present)
- D Nikita Nikitin (Waiver announcements at 10 this morning)
- D Eric Gryba (Another D-zone blue with NHL experience to help Fayne, Ference)
- D Andrew Ference (Captain pressbox, looks like)
- D Griffin Reinhart (I predict he’ll play 49 NHL games in 2015-16)
- D Darnell Nurse (I predict he’ll play 70 NHL games in 2015-16)
- D Brad Hunt (He’ll see NHL time)
- D David Musil (Could get some NHL time)
- D Jordan Oesterle (Fast and skilled, could surprise)
- D Dillon Simpson (Probably a full season in Bakersfield)
- D Martin Gernat (They may try to get him off the roster)
- D Ben Betker (May need to spend some time in the ECHL if it gets crowded)
- D Joey Laleggia (Can learn plenty from Hunt and Oesterle in Bakersfield)
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Nuge is gonna shine)
- C Anton Lander (Important player for 15-16)
- C Boyd Gordon (veteran could be trade bait by deadline if things break right)
- C Leon Draisaitl (Man amongst boys in Memorial Cup)
- C Bogdan Yakimov (Big C still developing, factor down the line)
- C Jujhar Khaira (Solid checker, offense may keep him from NHL career)
- C Kyle Platzer (New pro has two-way skills)
- L Taylor Hall (Rumor of a new C coming in may help spike numbers)
- L Benoit Pouliot (Important player for next season)
- L Matt Hendricks (Had a wonderful year, can he do it again?)
- L Luke Gazdic (How much will he play?)
- L Ryan Hamilton (he’ll be the veteran hand in the minors helping to guide the kids)
- L Anton Slepyshev (Can’t wait to see him in TC)
- L Mitch Moroz (Should see way more action in Bakersfield in 2015-16)
- L Kale Kessy (Lost season to injury, another chance in 2015-16)
- R Jordan Eberle (Top RW primed for a big year)
- R Nail Yakupov (He’s still here, people!)
- R Teddy Purcell (Speed only real issue)
- R Rob Klinkhammer (4line RW, crash and bang)
- R Iiro Pakarinen (Has a chance to make the team)
- R Andrew Miller (A strong option for NHL time in 2015-16)
- R Greg Chase (His game should flourish in pro’s)
We should know the list of RFA’s qualified some time today and the candidates are:
- G Tyler Bunz (Won’t be qualified)
- D Justin Schultz (He’ll be qualified)
- D Brandon Davidson (He’ll be qualified)
- D Keith Aulie (Won’t be qualified)
- C Kellen Lain (Won’t be qualified)
- L Matt Fraser (Could go either way)
- L Curtis Hamilton (Won’t be qualified)
- R Tyler Pitlick (Could go either way)
Others who will or could be signed:
- C Connor McDavid (I’m thinking there’s a chance)
- L Josh Winquist (He’s a good hockey player, they should sign him)
- R John McCarron (graduating college player, they have some time to sign him)
I expect the 50-man list will be at 43 (McDavid, Schultz, Davidson) with one or two possible adds after that and of course if we see a three-for-one (candles lit!) this number could change. Buyouts could impact, too. If Davidson and Schultz are qualified, Edmonton would have 16 defensemen on the list, that’s a bit heavy.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Monday! Waivers, buyouts, HHOF, who are the Oilers talking to? 10 this morning, TSN1260.
- Scott Burnside, ESPN. Crazy weekend at the draft, more crazy to come with free agency this week.
- Alanna Phillips, CFL is For Girls. Devastating weekend in the CFL. My house is in mourning.
- Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Reinhart wrath, and I think he may have seen Kevin Lowe at the Oilers draft table.
- Bob Weeks, TSN. Graham DeLaet finished fourth this weekend, qualifies for the British Open in July.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. This show may burn down the house.