ANOTHER LOOK AT NHLE’S

NHL equivalencies are the handiwork of Gabriel Desjardins and give us a ‘line in the sand’ when estimating future boxcar numbers. This isn’t a ‘tool’ so much as a ‘toy’—a fun way to estimate offensive talent for players who don’t have an established level of ability in the NHL. Let’s go back a few years and see how the toy has projected some Oilers from the current team (and recent past).

NHLE’S OVER TIME

Here are some recent Oilers, their final season outside the NHL, followed by their rookie seasons in the show.

  1. Taylor Hall 82GP, 17-29-46NHLE (Actual 65GP, 22-20-42) .561 versus .646 (point per game)
  2. Jordan Eberle 82GP, 22-24-46NHLE (Actual 69GP, 18-25-43) .561 versus .623 (point per game)
  3. Anton Lander 82GP, 14-28-42 NHLE (Actual 38GP, 6-14-20) .512 versus .526 point per game) (AHL-to-NHL)
  4. Nail Yakupov 82GP, 18-22-40NHLE (Actual 48GP, 17-14-31) .487 versus .645 (point per game)
  5. RNH 82GP, 11-27-38NHLE (Actual 62GP, 18-34-52) .463 versus .839 (point per game)

Since the 2008 draft, these five men have posted quality NHLE’s and then moved up to the NHL and succeeded the following season. Their NHLE’s ranged from 38 to 46 points and their NHL point totals were actually superior the following year (while being basicall in the range—the Nuge was a freak). In those years there were plenty of promising players who didn’t make the grade despite solid NHLE totals—like Curtis Hamilton (33 NHLE points in his final junior season), Teemu Hartikainen (30 NHLE points in his first OKC season), Tyler Pitlick (27 NHLE points in his WHL season).

40 points would be a nice line in the sand for a future NHL player. One final note: We don’t have time on ice. That’s a big missing piece to the puzzle.

mcdavid draft

THE 2015 COMPLETE OILERS NHLE LIST (FORWARDS)

  1. C Connor McDavid 82GP, 23-40-63
  2. C Leon Draisaitl 82GP, 15-26-41
  3. R Andrew Miller 82GP, 15-20-35
  4. C-R Kyle Platzer 82GP, 12-17-29
  5. L Anton Slepyshev 82GP, 17-11-28
  6. R Iiro Pakarinen 82GP, 16-11-27
  7. C-R Greg Chase 82GP, 8-16-24
  8. R Tyler Pitlick 82GP, 8-16-24
  9. C Bogdan Yakimov 82GP, 10-13-23
  10. L Ryan Hamilton 82GP, 11-12-23
  11. F Tyler Vesel 82GP, 7-13-20
  12. L Josh Winquist 82GP, 8-11-19
  13. L Kale Kessy 82GP, 8-8-16
  14. L Evan Campbell 82GP, 7-8-15
  15. F Kellen Jones 82GP, 4-7-11
  16. L Aidan Muir 82GP, 4-6-10
  17. C Jujhar Khaira 82GP, 4-5-9
  18. C Connor Jones 82GP, 4-5-9
  19. R John McCarron 82GP, 3-5-8
  20. L Mitch Moroz 82GP, 3-3-6

Connor McDavid is in a world of his own according to NHLE, his 63 points towers over Hall, Eberle and the rest. He is, based on the part of his career we can see (and project), a special talent. Young Draisaitl repeats his draft season (40 points) one year on and his numbers suggest a very productive NHL forward when he arrives—and it could be soon. Andrew Miller had a quality season and should be considered a real NHL option for 2015-16.

After that, we have a large group (Platzer, Slepyshev, Pakarinen, Chase, Pitlick, Yakimov) who could push into the area where future NHL players roam, but they’ll need to spike offensively in the coming season. It’s also true that we sometimes see a period of transition from junior to pro, so players like Platzer and Chase may have a difficult time reaching this year’s number due to TOI and an increase in qual comp.

It’s an excellent list at the top, trading all of those draft picks means Edmonton doesn’t have a bunch of scoring wingers pushing the likes of Hall, Pouliot, Eberle and Yakupov at the NHL level. That’s fine, because they’re all young (or in their prime) but if Edmonton needs to trade from depth there’s not a large amount bubbling under (Slepyshev, Miller, Pakarinen, Chase) for the team. Don’t overlook Josh Winquist by the way, he’s tracking well and will hopefully get a full AHL season in 2015-16.

laleggia9

THE DEFENSE

  1. Joey Laleggia 82GP, 14-23-37
  2. Brad Hunt 82GP, 11-19-30
  3. Darnell Nurse 82GP, 7-16-23
  4. Griffin Reinhart 82GP, 6-11-17
  5. Jordan Oesterle 82GP, 5-12-17
  6. Ethan Bear 82GP, 5-9-14
  7. Ben Betker 82GP, 2-10-12
  8. Dillon Simpson 82GP, 2-9-11
  9. David Musil 82GP, 1-7-8
  10. Martin Gernat 82GP, 1-7-8
  11. Brandon Davidson 82GP, 3-4-7
  12. William Lagesson 82GP, 1-6-7
  13. Caleb Jones 82GP, 2-5-7
  14. Ziyat Paigin 82GP, 2-2-4

Laleggia’s numbers are just too good to ignore. We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves here, but if he has a strong season in Bakersfield I think he’s going to get a look. When we examine prospects, it’s always good to value the unique ones, the ones who tower over the rest in some way. Laleggia is such a player, or NHLE is telling us he is.

Brad Hunt is an impact player in the AHL and may get another chance under McLellan. His offensive prowess from the blue line is truly exceptional and he was re-signed for a reason. Nurse shows well here, that’s a good season for a two-way defenseman who has tremendous defensive value. Reinhart’s numbers are reflective of his player-type, much like Nurse the big part of his game is defensive, and he’s not going to post the same point totals as Nurse during their careers (unless he gets power-play time).

Oesterle is a fast player with real skill and his defensive reputation isn’t as dire as Hunt’s, so that’s a player we should watch closely this year.

The rest of the men are developing and we should expect to see improvement year over year. Many of these chaps aren’t going to deliver big offense, so this look is highly unfair and punitive. Brandon Davidson’s offense isn’t going to get him to the NHL, but he can move the puck effectively and has learned his lessons in the AHL. He could absolutely emerge from this group as an NHL regular in the next season or two. Also, Ben Betker is a mountain of a man who can skate—remember what we talked about in regard to unique—and he’s going to make the NHL for sure if he continues to develop.

A quick note on Martin Gernat. He’s buried so far down the line no one can see him under the overgrowth, but he was a prospect of some quality not long ago and may still emerge. I don’t think it’ll be as an Oilers defenseman, though.

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392 Responses to "ANOTHER LOOK AT NHLE’S"

« Older Comments
  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think the fact an entire thread has been dedicated to DSF tells you enough. Don’t engage, ban, or try to install an ignore function. Conversation never gets pushed forward. Everything oiler gets put down as he jumps from hollow point to hollow point.

    No one talking about McDavid’s wonderful skills as he wowed in Rexall! His speed, smarts, and stick checking ability are such an unbelievable package. Back checking is incredible when you skate twice the speed of the next guy.

  2. RENNAVATE says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I don’t know any straight man who doesn’t mind to be called gay. Not one. That’s why the term is a cut-down. Is that a moral judgement against homosexuality? I’m not sure it is.

    I’m a straight man who doesn’t mind to be called gay. Because being gay is not a bad thing. I’m hardly the only straight man who feels this way.

  3. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Hey kids…way too much talk here about me and way too little talk about hockey.

    On that note, I’ll bid you all sayonara…please be aware that you’re more than welcome to come visit me on my blog if you so choose.

    All the best to all of you and remember kids…eat your jicama!

    🙂

  4. book¡je says:

    RE – Freedom of speech.

    Unless the government is censoring this blog, The phrase has no relevance here.

    LT is a private individual and could ban anyone he wants and/or censor any topic he wants.

    I suggest a ban on the topic of waiver eligibility.

  5. theres oil in virginia says:

    godot10: Shattenkirk doesn’t fit into the salary cap long term.He is better offensively than defensively.Pieterangelo (and Bouwmeester) carries the heavy load in St. Louis.

    Poor use of salary cap space paying for a D who is better offensively than defensively. Shattenkirk is a #3D defensively.He is going to cost over $7 million in two years because of his offense.Sekera is significantly better value for money.

    The premium for Shattenkirk’s offense isn’t worth it. One would be paying more than he is worth, but he is a good player, unlike Franson.

    i.e. Sather let Coffey go first.High end offense from a defensemen is a nice to have, but not essential.Sather replaced Coffey with Ruotsaleinen.The power play specialist on D can be found for much cheaper than paying the premium, especially when one has elite forwards, and one can run 4 forwards on the PP.

    Yeah, I pretty much agree with you, except the minor quibble that I think Shattenkirk is #2 on the Blues, and the anchor for the 2nd pair. However, I’m not really interested in Shattenkirk to the Oilers, just using him as a guide to market valuation.

    There’s much talk about obtaining a “true #1 d-man”, but then the talk starts with Yak + Gernat + 3rd rd pick (or Schultz somewhere in the mix). I’m just wondering what it would actually take to get one of these guys and I start with Shattenkirk rather than Pietrangelo, because I think the cost is even higher for Pietrangelo. These trades almost never occur, and I think it’s for that reason.

    In my mind, this issues relates to the idea of the “overpay”. It takes paying a steep price to get a top guy; is it an overpay if that’s what the market demands? I think of overpay as paying more than market, ie – if you had shopped around you could have gotten a better deal than what you paid.

    Also, I’m wondering if anything is cooking regarding a 3for1 trade for a top guy. If it is, I’m guessing it will be major pain. I don’t think it’s the right thing to do, either. Let’s see what Nurse, Klefbom, Reinhart turn into first, before we declare them all to have a “2nd pair ceiling”.

  6. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    I have the solution.

    Let’s ban everyone who engages in arguments with DSF.

    Really, it’s for their own good.

    Wins the thread.

    Not close.

  7. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Woodguy: Wins the thread.

    Not close.

    In that case let me be the first to bid you adieu.

  8. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    I like Ehroff but neither he nor Sekera would ever be considered Keith or Hedman. Unless you can find a McDonough – will miss the Jackel – you need to draft those guys.

    Is the hope that amongst Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart that we have our real “Norris”?

  9. PunjabiOil says:

    Re: DSF

    – He’s a bright fellow when he chooses to be.

    – He’s a troll more often than not. Will attempt to hyperbole rivals transactions, downplay anything positive from the Oilers, shift goalposts in arguments, worst case comparables to Oilers players and prospects (I recall him comparing Taylor Hall to Ethan Moreau).

    He knows exactly what he is doing. It’s intentional, malicious, and undermines the utility of this blog.

    Every thread becomes about DSF rather than the conversation subject the original blog post was designed for.

    – I’d prefer the ban route or a 2 month probationary period route to amend behavior.

    – Ultimately, it’s LT’s blog and call – and LT’s decision should be respected.

  10. Derek says:

    book¡je:
    RE – Freedom of speech.

    Unless the government is censoring this blog,The phrase has no relevance here.

    LT is a private individual and could ban anyone he wants and/or censor any topic he wants.

    I suggest a ban on the topic of waiver eligibility.

    I suggest we give DSF a 2 way contract so he can come back without passing through waivers…. 😉

    *Waits for WG’s head to explode*

  11. book¡je says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Hey kids…way too much talk here about me and way too little talk about hockey.

    On that note, I’ll bid you all sayonara…please be aware that you’re more than welcome to come visit me on my blog if you so choose.

    All the best to all of you and remember kids…eat your jicama!

    Really, if you just used your hockey acumen in rational debate, you could avoid all of this. It’s that you have this addiction to torturing others through exceptionally honed trolling techniques that causes the problems.

  12. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: lol… I am going to write a satirical article in the near future about Google’s policy against pornography… while being the largest referrer to pornography the world has ever seen.

    Ha! Keeping both sides happy, and the profit rolling in.

  13. Younger Oil says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Hey kids…way too much talk here about me and way too little talk about hockey.

    On that note, I’ll bid you all sayonara…please be aware that you’re more than welcome to come visit me on my blog if you so choose.

    All the best to all of you and remember kids…eat your jicama!

    Very classy DSF. I don’t agree with you going, and I hope we see you again around here some day!

  14. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I can’t stay quiet any more. What has our society become? I have a friend who is openly gay. Routinely jokes are made back and forth from him and to him about him going out with his bum buddies. It isn’t said to hurt, again, from him or to him. So who takes offence to it when you’re talking in humour? The PC police. I work with a lady who is Native Canadian. Say the word Indian around the office and people are freaked out. Why? The coworker in question uses it, even wants to be referred that was and not native. I don’t get offended when she pokes fun of me because I’m Irish and British and am perpetually pasty white. Again, who is offended? See a pattern here?

    When I was young, my nickname was “Poop”. Even used it on posters when I ran for student council president. Was anyone offended? Not me. A couple teachers called me Poop. Jesus people, calm the fuck down. I can remember as a child being allowed to climb trees, jump ice champers in the harbour (yup, the Atlantic Ocean), play on trampolines with no nets, real lawn darts, bow and arrows as a grading gift, real golf spikes, go out on bikes with friends without a cell phone, have snowball fights at school, etc. We have entered a period of time that has been dubbed “The Pussification of America”. It’s this Pussification that has turned us into a society that is afraid of our own goddamned shadows. I am the furthest thing from judgmental, prejudiced or racist that you will ever meet. I’m a realist and I don’t tread lightly. I don’t speak any differently around different races, religions or sexual orientations and I’ve never been accused of being racist, prejudiced or stereotypical. So any of you who may be slightly offended by my points, don’t ever fucking use BFF or bestie ever again. They are joked about in the same sense now. But it’s new age terminology is cute and cuddly. Now I’m going to enjoy reading more commentary while I drive diesel pickup through the Peace foothills to Chetwynd to go carve some wood figures with my pepped up air polluting chainsaw. I’m joking, driving an SUV to go mountain biking in Tumbler Ridge, just wanted to piss off the tree huggers. Oh, sorry, is that a slur?

  15. Moose says:

    Lowetide:
    Doug: I think that’s what PC is weighing now, sign Ehrhoff or keep his powder dry for next summer.

    Barring a trade for top D-Man, I’ve seen a lot of people advocating for keeping the powder dry for UFA’s next year. So here’s a quick (incomplete) look at UFA’s for Summer 2016:

    Campbell (38yo next year)
    Seabrook (likely re-up in Chicago after Saad deal)
    Yandle
    Byfuglien
    Goligoski
    Bieksa (working on extension in ANA)
    Hamhuis (33yo next year)
    Coburn
    Quincey
    Giordano (they have to re-sign him, right?)
    E. Johnson
    Schenn
    Gunnarsson
    Demers
    Gilbert
    Polak
    Spurgeon

    Some good names there, but who’s the realistic target next year that you’d commit big money and term to? Byfuglien? E. Johnson?

    Maybe if we just start threatening an Oli Maata offer sheet NOW, Rutherford will trade him to us at the deadline. 😉

  16. bendelson says:

    And DSF rides off into the sunset, taking the high road home…
    Safe travels my friend.

  17. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Hey kids…way too much talk here about me and way too little talk about hockey.

    On that note, I’ll bid you all sayonara…please be aware that you’re more than welcome to come visit me on my blog if you so choose.

    All the best to all of you and remember kids…eat your jicama!

    I don’t know if you intentionally chose the Japanese term for “good-bye,” but if you are aware of the origins of the word, I commend you for your choice of diction. “Sayo” – “Naraba” –in English “if it is to be so.”

  18. G Money says:

    I hope I’m not derailing this thread about DSF by talking about NHLE’s 🙂 but also 🙁 …

    Several points I want to make about NHLEs, particularly Vollmans:

    1 – Vollman’s NHLEs are STRICTLY calculated based on translation from one year pre-NHL to the first year in the NHL. They should not be used and do not have validity post the first year.

    2 – Vollman’s NHLE (like all such NHLes) significantly underestimates elite players, particularly forwards. This is pretty reasonable if you think about it – a regression (the technique he uses) tries to calculate the ‘typical’ translation across the entire dataset. By definition, elite players are not typical.

    3 – His NHLE has two other challenges (IMO). A. it does not distinguish between position i.e. his regression uses all positions, does not separate forwards from defensemen as an example. B. it uses data as far back as he could get. This is back to the 1940s for the AHL, and back to the early 80s for the Jr leagues. So its going to suffer from some pretty major era effects.

    I cannot find the details of what he put in his regression, and being that he’s so smart, I suspect/hope he included the position and the year as part of his regression, so that will mitigate most of those two issues.

    BUT! His published translation factor (e.g. 0.3 for OHL) does NOT account for year, so the era effects are going to be built in, one way or the other.

    In my view, I’d rather run separate regressions at the very least by position, if not also restricting the data by era. Regressions that are run with a large number of variables to try and account for all values and confounding factors (called ‘garbage can regressions’) create their own problems and issues, and many statisticians consider them poor form now.

    4 – I took two stabs at doing a ‘better’ version of NHLE specifically for elite forwards. The first focused just on forwards drafted in the top 5 out of the CHL, and only in the last 10 years. So this is a highly focused dataset.

    It suffers from the one major consequence of a much smaller sample size. But that’s what you get when you look only at elite players, right? By definition, they’re rare.

    Nonetheless, I think the results I got are more valid for elite players than the standard NHLe.
    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/19/mcpredicting-what-does-the-math-say/

    By my math, I peg McDavid’s first year as being in the order of 72 to 74 points in a full season.

    5 – The second NHLe was more for fun, using a machine learning algorithm called a Support Vector Machine.
    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/with-the-first-overall-pick-skynet-chooses/

    I did this twice, the second time adding in what I feel is a critical missing element to existing NHLe, namely age. Interestingly, the results were VERY different when age was factored into the equation, suggesting that this is a major missing point in current NHLe datasets.

    The age-adjusted results once again put McDavid in at around mid to low 70s for points next year.

  19. rickithebear says:

    Keith gets all the praise but the most consistent + d in these cup runs is Hjarlmasson.
    if he is gone do they win 3 cups?
    Not a F……. Chance.

    Cause who is going to face the toughs?
    Keith-Seabrook?
    they face 2nd-3rd-4th’s.

    we saw keith sharing th 1st’s in 2010 .
    Campbell +11
    Hjarlmasson +9
    Seabrook +8
    Sopel +7
    Keith +2
    Plus 2 does not get it done.

    If we want a Player who faces 2nd/3rd comp and racks points at even.
    that was Klefbom under Nelson!
    37 EVp pace!
    43.07 Ca/60 w/ Petry

    Ferraro knows what is about to happen.

    PS. 2nd comp d should not win the Norris!

  20. spoiler says:

    Unwashed Oilfan:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I can remember as a child being allowed to climb trees, jump ice champers in the harbour (yup, the Atlantic Ocean), play on trampolines with no nets, real lawn darts, bow and arrows as a grading gift, real golf spikes, go out on bikes with friends without a cell phone, have snowball fights at school, etc.

    I think the line was drawn when “Super Slider Snow Skates” came out. Those things were truly a death trap. I mean, what the hell was K-Tel thinking?

    After that it was bye-bye lawn darts and anything a baby could swallow.

  21. Tire Fire says:

    Woodguy:

    How one responds to DSF says more about the poster than DSF.

    This came out in a bit of a misleading way. It implies that there is something more wrong with the person responding to the troll than with the actual beast in it’s under-bridge lair. Shining more light on the poster than DSF is really only a re-expression of the fact that we simply know more about the simply motivated troll than we do of most posters.

    DSF is not trying to add something to the conversation, he is actively trying to take something away. People explaining their POV are appreciated greatly, those throwing out red herrings without any interest in getting across some underlying worldview are simply trying to waste my time. They can go eat a big bag of Pouliots.

    Sure, we discover the odd diamond in the lumps of dirt he lobs at us, but that’s just takes his input from negative 1 million to negative 0.9 million (in arbitrary information units, AIUs).

    Leave him in the mix or ban him, I don’t care, but let’s not forget that he is the one being a dink.

  22. geowal says:

    Moose:
    As for the actual hockey discussion…

    Really looking forward to seeing Ethan Bear in Seattle next year (I live here, so get to see a lot of games). With Shea Theodore gone, hoping that he gets significant PP time and big minutes. What really impressed me about Bear last year was the little plays he would make with the puck while under pressure. Smart and simple. Always seemed to find a teammate with a 5-10 foot pass to break forecheck pressure and get the play moving the other way.

    Make a lot of drives to Portland for Winterhawks games as well, so the Oilers drafting Bear and Caleb Jones was great for me personally. Bummed about Auston Matthews not coming to Everett though (20 minutes up the road).

    Sounds like you’ve volunteered to provide occasional first-hand updates on Bear and Jones!

  23. Moose says:

    geowal: Sounds like you’ve volunteered to provide occasional first-hand updates on Bear and Jones!

    Absolutely. Will do so as often as I can.

  24. gd says:

    stevezie:
    I’m not too interested in the free speech discussion, but for whatever it’s worth our D really is essentially the same as last year’s with Sekera replacing Petry. Will a year of development make enough of a difference?

    This idea is not the stuff of trolling.

    That said, i doubt we’re done tinkering

    I think people are underrating how even if replacing Petry with Sekera is a saw-off that is PC’s best move so far. I think people are forgetting that the team was actually pretty competitive for the two months after Nelson took over until Petry was traded, with Hall injured most of that time. Remember most of us have a goal of being around 20th place this year and I think we are there with Sekera and Talbot. My hope is that we get off to a half decent start and that could allow Chia to pick up a top 4 Dman from some team whose season is falling about as they decide to “tank for Matthews”. Some team in the Central is bound to be at the bottom of the standings and every team in that division has a D target or two.

  25. Doug McLachlan says:

    Moose,

    Not sure any name on this list that is truly desirable will make it to next season. Yandle was, at one point, the flavour du jour but has fallen off (see Wille E and the cliff). The Rangers are in very tight to the cap (with Stepan yet to sign – love to be in a position to OS him) – could Yandle spring loose and should we be interested if he did?

  26. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Unwashed Oilfan,

    You’re entitled to your opinion, of course. I will just point out that “I have a friend who is gay and he doesn’t mind gay jokes” is a weak argument (I’m sure you are aware). Also, the term “pussification” was used by a comedian to make a point, and used outside of that context, can be taken as very sexist.

    Look, I’m not here to pick a bone with you, but there’s a difference between joking with your friends about things in your life, where context is understood, and posting slurs, homophobic or sexist or racist terms or referring to groups that promote hate and violence based on that hate online, even if you feel we’ve gotten “soft” as a society or what have you. I hope you see that? It’s called progress. Just because we grew up a certain way doesn’t mean it’s ok to keep doing that.

    Asking posters to be mindful about terms they use here isn’t white-washing or making the PC guys “win out” over anyone.

    Edit- as for the rest of it, cell phones, snowball fights (or even an old-fashioned dust-up to even a score on the playground), I agree with you. But to me, that shouldn’t be lumped in with the other stuff, which we can do without.

  27. theres oil in virginia says:

    Having said what I’ve said above, I’d like to state that I don’t have any disrespect for those with different viewpoints from mine. (NYCOil and Lois Lowe, you are two of the posters that I try to always read, even when skimming.) Every time I look back a few years, I find that I don’t agree with much of what I thought back then.

    Alright, no joke: I’ve got to go finish vacuuming the house and listening to the Women’s World Cup Final.

    …and no, I’m not going to be wearing an apron.

    🙂

  28. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos": I don’t know if you intentionally chose the Japanese term for “good-bye,” but if you are aware of the origins of the word, I commend you for your choice of diction. “Sayo” – “Naraba” –in English “if it is to be so.”

    It has more finality than our “good-bye”, does it not? I actually tried to google the etymology before you posted, but everything came back “good-bye”, so I’m happy you are clarifying.

  29. rickithebear says:

    G Money: I did this twice, the second time adding in what I feel is a critical missing element to existing NHLe, namely age. Interestingly, the results were VERY different when age was factored into the equation, suggesting that this is a major missing point in current NHLe datasets.

    Desjardins: curves using CHL .30 NHLE
    16 year period is 100% to 75% of player CHL PPG sept 16 .75% to sept 14 100%
    17 year (draft) period is 75% to 50% 0f player CHL PPG
    18 year is 50% to 40%
    19 year is 40% to 35%
    20 year is 35% to 32%
    21 yr 32-30%

    Mcdavid Jan 13 58%
    Marner may 5 68%

    Welcome to the world of Age NHLE!

  30. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Having said what I’ve said above, I’d like to state that I don’t have any disrespect for those with different viewpoints from mine.(NYCOil and Lois Lowe, you are two of the posters that I try to always read, even when skimming.)Every time I look back a few years, I find that I don’t agree with much of what I thought back then.

    Alright, no joke:I’ve got to go finish vacuuming the house and listening to the Women’s World Cup Final.

    …and no, I’m not going to be wearing an apron.

    Well, there’s no point in being a girl about it…

    *Drops mic and runs for the nearest bulletproof vest.*

    ____

    Is that meta- enough or should I take it down?

  31. PunjabiOil says:

    I suspect DSF will be back under a different username.

  32. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    spoiler,

    Yes, in terms of gravitas, it is probably closer to farewell/fare thee well.

    In casual conversation, “mata ne” – (again [see you]) or “jaa ne” (well, then) is more likely to be used.

  33. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Ha, alright, I’ve got a compromise. “Pooh!” As in “pooh-pooh” or Winnie the ___.

    Same poo, or pooh 🙂

  34. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, were those age range adjustments calculated by Desjardins or Vollman, or did you calculate them yourself?

    If you calculated them yourself, what dataset did you use?

  35. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    For the sake of poor LT, let’s see if we can turn this discussion north, shall we? Let’s use common sense and help each other out along the way, whatever our viewpoints on these non-hockey matters may be? I don’t like to use the term “policing” in this context, but let’s have each other’s backs.

    This thread was about NHLEs. It became about DSF and then about loaded terms. I am guilty of being a participant. So I’m going to time myself out for a while. In the meantime, I’ll just say it’s so nice to see McDavid in Oil silks, even if in practice. He has an aura about him on the ice and he is one of the best hockey skaters I’ve ever seen.

    P.S. – DSF’s latest post at his blog is very balanced and he praises the Oilers’ offseason while putting down the Canucks’ And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.

  36. G Money says:

    Geez, you type in a gigantic on-topic post and you miss all the fun.

  37. Younger Oil says:

    Willis with an interesting suggestion on ON.

    Would you trade Nikitin and Ference for Phaneuf, no salary retained for anyone?

    I don’t think I would, already have lots of LHD that we have under control for the length of Phaneuf’s contract.

    Phaneuf might be the addition that makes us a playoff team for the next two seasons, especially if he doesn’t get the hardest minutes, which makes the most of McDavid’s ELC, but would be an absolute anchor after that.

  38. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    I used to argue two things about Desjardins NHLe back in the day that largely fell on deaf ears, so I stopped…

    1. Era effects, ie it is something we should regularly update and we should emphasize more recent data over less.
    2. Age effects.

    I was somewhat mollified by the return argument that the AHL translation to a degree takes age into account, as most people making the jump would be in the same early 20s cohort. Was never mollified on the first point, but no one wanted to do the work who could do the work.

    Never thought about position effects, which seems obvious now that you’ve raised it.

    I’ve always thought that NHLe is basically centering a bell curve anyway so wasn’t too particularly concerned it wasn’t as accurate as possible.

  39. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Younger Oil: Willis with an interesting suggestion on ON.

    Would you trade Nikitin and Ference for Phaneuf, no salary retained for anyone?

    Tempting, but no.

    If the Oilers were in the Pens situation and the window was short, yes, I’d take the gamble. But the window isn’t going to open for 3 or so years, and Phaneuf will be 33 by then. He’s slowed down already – not as bad as some people make him out to be, he does belong on a first pairing but he’s not the elite defenceman he once looked like he might become. At 33 he’d still be able to contribute, but he’d slowly be getting worse just as the window is opening up.

    Meanwhile, Ference and Nikitin are gone soon one way or the other, freeing up a lot of cap room for players who I think will legitimately want to come here. Or at the least giving us the space to sign our own stars.

  40. Tire Fire says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos",

    I see the point of too-much PC-ification being a problem. I’ll say pretty much anything, but I never use words that are slurs (like “faggot”, n-word, etc.).

    What we find offensive comes from our past experiences, and slurs are too often linked to specific memories that the call up. You can’t avoid all jokes as there’s always going to be someone whose mother just died in a toaster accident or whatever, but slurs seem an easy thing to avoid.

    I do have trouble avoiding sacrilegious jokes though. While I grew up going to church once (or twice) a week, I can’t remember ever once thinking there really was a deity of any kind. So a joke to me about Jesus or Mohammed is no different than a joke about Tom Sawyer. I still apply the rule of no slurs though, lots of religious persecution still exists in this world.

    I also avoid trying to convince people that they should start being an atheist or stop glorifying gangster culture in music. It’s like telling a Frenchman he shouldn’t like blue cheese: I don’t like it myself, but lots of tastes are a matter of what culture you’re from.

  41. spoiler says:

    Surely I’m not the only person who remembers Super Slider Snow Skates?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48ysOQZY6iw

    Man, if you were taken to the top of a big hill and your parents strapped these puppies on you, let’s just say you were probably not the favorite child.

    And yes, TV really did look like that back then. Once we got colour.

  42. Derek says:

    I’m offended by country music and the godless Flames of Calgary.

    I don’t mind the Vancouver Canucks though, not with Captain Benning steering them straight towards a Tambellini sized iceberg. I quite like that.

  43. Derek says:

    spoiler:
    Surely I’m not the only person who remembers Super Slider Snow Skates?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48ysOQZY6iw

    Man, if you were taken to the top of a big hill and your parents strapped these puppies on you, let’s just say you were probably not the favorite child.

    And yes, TV really did look like that back then. Once we got colour.

    Haha wow those things look rad as hell!

    Also, Spoiler, you and LT are the same age aren’t you?

  44. Moose says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Moose,

    Not sure any name on this list that is truly desirable will make it to next season. Yandle was, at one point, the flavour du jour but has fallen off (see Wille E and the cliff). The Rangers are in very tight to the cap (with Stepan yet to sign – love to be in a position to OS him) – could Yandle spring loose and should we be interested if he did?

    That’s kind of my thought as well. Most of the guys you’d want are on teams that are contenders or will be contenders. You’d have to think that most, if not all, those type of guys get re-upped with their current clubs. Maybe Byfugluen shakes loose, not likely, but maybe.

  45. G Money says:

    spoiler: I’ve always thought that NHLe is basically centering a bell curve anyway so wasn’t too particularly concerned it wasn’t as accurate as possible.

    I think this is exactly it. NHLe turns out to be useful precisely because it centres a bell curve, and so for most players it works just fine as a rough estimator.

    Its when you get to the elite players who sit at the far end of the bell curve that I think you run into the biggest challenges:
    – era effects are most strong, because era effects move the average modestly but move the extremes more significantly. Crosby scores 127 pts at his peak and 87 pts last year.
    – elite players tend to hit the NHL earlier, exacerbating assumptions about average age
    – elite defensemen vs elite forwards: I have no idea how these might interrelate. But assuming they are similar to the average D vs F is probably not accurate.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Derek:
    I’m offended by country music and the godless Flames of Calgary.

    I don’t mind the Vancouver Canucks though, not with Captain Benning steering them straight towards a Tambellini sized iceberg.I quite like that.

    I can’t hate the Flames. Too many players I’d like to play for the Oilers like Monahan, Bennett and there are another few I can’t bother to remember.

    I’ve always been a fan of Bob Hartley, and in light of the Lowe/MacT/OBC declining influence of late, even Brian Burke comes out shining.

    Basically, they’re lining up to play their historically defined role – as Oiler’s stooges.

  47. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Good luck staying away DSF. That just made me think about those threatening to leave over him. This place is addictive, even the guys that don’t post anymore still read. Pretty hard to stay away because this is the best hockey blog. Nothing else is even close to as informative and consistently stimulating.

  48. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, were those age range adjustments calculated by Desjardins or Vollman, or did you calculate them yourself?

    If you calculated them yourself, what dataset did you use?

    It was desjardins.
    Not that hard take
    Tak efull draft year. (17 yr)
    This year as example
    the sept 16 96 Player is .50 for each day it is + (25/356)
    Sept 14 97 is .75
    18 year is .40 to .50
    When you use even you are getting less noise from a largely un sustainable Production.

    That is why I look at players Even production for draft.

    That is why Zach Sensyshyn should be a top 10 pick!
    Debrusk is an elite EVG scorer.
    Lauzon is the 4th best EVEN producing D
    But 3rd best with Size
    Werenski
    Meloche

    Jesse Gabrielle reflects to be a top 30 Player.
    But currently cannot balance his desire to be a face Puncher.

    Even NHLE says get Loik Loisville and Soy
    The d is 5’11″223lb 3.14 lb/in

  49. hunter1909 says:

    I’ll say it now: Connor McDavid’s Oilers to break 100 points next season.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    Derek,

    You might have noticed I forgot to mention the Canucks.

  51. Lackadaisical says:

    Good afternoon gentlemen. So, off-topic: How did you all start getting into the numbers side of the game?

    Are there any good reads you’d recommend for understanding the basic metrics and data sets? I’d just google around, but I figured I’d ask some of the best I’ve seen first.

    (Shameless plugs encouraged.)

  52. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Derek:
    I’m offended by country music and the godless Flames of Calgary.

    I don’t mind the Vancouver Canucks though, not with Captain Benning steering them straight towards a Tambellini sized iceberg.I quite like that.

    Too funny. I don’t mind what the Flames have done because I’m confident they can’t do enough to dominate the Oilers going forward, assuming Pete does more good than bad. At the same time you want them to be able to put up a decent fight.

    The 80’s total annihilation of the Flames and Canucks on a regular basis isn’t quite as satisfying as them thinking they have a chance.

  53. Bling says:

    There’s a fantastic article over at coppernblue on delta Corsi and assessing the Oilers D.

    Confirms what a lot of people have been saying, and that is that losing Petry and Marincin is going to sting, a lot.

    If I’m reading things correctly, the addition of Sekera does not offset those departures.

    Chia needs to add one more and get rid of Ference, otherwise we’re looking at another year of tire fires.

  54. G Money says:

    rickithebear: the sept 16 96 Player is .50 for each day it is + (25/356)

    OK. So what I’m really asking then is:
    – adding a fixed daily increment for points means you are making a linear adjustment for age. What did you use to model that? Was it a regression? Eyeball? Thumb in the air?
    – where did you come up with 25/356 as your linear age adjustment factor?

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Someone tell Connor McDavid: It’s the last year playing in the house that Gretz built.

    It’s Connor’s only chance to win the Cup in the iconic barn.

    Then, Connor will be motivated enough to go out and win it.

  56. G Money says:

    Lackadaisical,

    Personally, I usually point folks to this page as a good starting point:
    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-fakers-guide-to-advanced-stats-in-the-nhl/

    Not only is it a decent glossary-based introduction, but it has tons of good links for specific areas you might want to delve into on a deeper basis.

    I find the author is a bit of a doofus in his other ventures and opinions, but perhaps thats what makes him a good reference for any easy to read intro!

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: The 80’s total annihilation of the Flames and Canucks on a regular basis isn’t quite as satisfying as them thinking they have a chance.

    1989 says hello.

  58. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    RE – Freedom of speech.

    Unless the government is censoring this blog,The phrase has no relevance here.

    LT is a private individual and could ban anyone he wants and/or censor any topic he wants.

    I suggest a ban on the topic of waiver eligibility.

    Does he have a two way contract?

  59. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: lol… I am going to write a satirical article in the near future about Google’s policy against pornography… while being the largest referrer to pornography the world has ever seen.

    Google is simply fulfilling its mandate of connecting people to the information they seek in the most efficient way possible.

    Reminds me of an xkcd cartoon I saw the other day: https://xkcd.com/924/

    My job is primarily about connecting people with information and withholding judgement and bias. So in that regard I can understand why, safe filters off, typing in certain collections of words into google is going to return some colourful results. However, I also think that, like FB and other social media sites, they have to recognize that they are being used a certain way and find a balance between retaining their raison d’etre and a more realpolitik of their role within society.

    If we want to lambaste google and others for hypocrisy and moral failings, the pornography angle is the least of my concerns.

    Interesting note on the term pornography: watched a documentary on the subject years ago and the term as we understand it today didn’t exist in the English landscape until the Victorians discovered Pompeii and Herculaneum.

    They’d unearthed this time capsule of Roman society before the degradation of the Imperial decadency had taken hold and were connecting to what many believed were their spiritual imperial ancestors by way of shared values of stoicism, empire, and so on.

    Then they found a small statue of Pan having some Very Intimate Relations with a goat. Very. Intimate.

    Suffice to say this caused some problems for the academics of the day.

    So, they locked it away, limited viewing of the items to only specially accredited (and male) researchers and excised all specific references to anything controversial in many of their studies so that the image of the stoic, morally superior Roman heritage with which Victorian England so strongly identified would not be undermined.

    They also invented a term to describe something they had, until then, not had reason to: pornography.

    A couple hundred years later Larry Flynt was born and now we have midget wife-swapping on television and former Playmate of the Year Jenny McCarthy writing books about motherhood.

  60. spoiler says:

    G Money: I think this is exactly it. NHLe turns out to be useful precisely because it centres a bell curve, and so for most players it works just fine as a rough estimator.

    Its when you get to the elite players who sit at the far end of the bell curve that I think you run into the biggest challenges:

    Well, that’s two different curves, right?

    Because you’re far more accomplished than me at this stuff, and have the data, if I may ask… is the probability curve of possible outcomes (pts or pts/gm next yr NHL) a normally distributed bell curve?

  61. Магия 10 says:

    Derek:

    I don’t mind the Vancouver Canucks though, not with Captain Benning steering them straight towards a Tambellini sized iceberg.I quite like that.

    And so a dynasty ends without ever beginning.

  62. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: I think the line was drawn when “Super Slider Snow Skates” came out.Those things were truly a death trap.I mean, what the hell was K-Tel thinking?

    After that it was bye-bye lawn darts and anything a baby could swallow.

    Super slider snow skates were better names Destroyer of Ankles.

    Seriously, I could skate and I could ski, but I couldn’t stand up on those damn things for more than 5 seconds.

  63. Derek says:

    Lackadaisical:
    Good afternoon gentlemen.So, off-topic: How did you all start getting into the numbers side of the game?

    Are there any good reads you’d recommend for understanding the basic metrics and data sets?I’d just google around, but I figured I’d ask some of the best I’ve seen first.

    (Shameless plugs encouraged.)

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    This ones pretty good too, if a bit older. The visual gives you a good idea about how successful strong possession teams are, and shows every year there are one or two outliers that rarely have staying power.

    It also led to me gambling on the playoffs every spring, which has also been quite entertaining.

  64. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money,

    Derek,

    Fantastic, thanks.

  65. cabbiesmacker says:

    In keeping with the politically correct theme of this post I would be much more comfortable if posters would refrain from referring to street people as bums, hobos, winos, homeless and panhandlers. Henceforth I would really appreciate seeing the proper designation, Urban Outdoorsmen, when referencing these folks.

    Thank you for your understanding

  66. stevezie says:

    gd,

    If the plan is to wait for a great move rather than forcing a bad one, I am all for it

  67. spoiler says:

    Derek: Also, Spoiler, you and LT are the same age aren’t you?

    I’m pretty sure LT has me by a few years. Unca Miltie I think is the oldest regular poster.

  68. G Money says:

    Re: a word on the Flames.

    Seems folks on this blog are all too willing to ascribe ‘elite’ qualities to the Flames D. “Oh they’re so much better than the Oilers!” “Adding Dougie Hamilton makes them one of the best in the league.” “The Oilers best D Sekera would be fourth on the Flames list.”

    BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT. Bullshit buzzer on all of those. Sorry.

    The Flames had a way-out-of-the-box year last year, driven by unsustainable shooting percentages.

    You simply CANNOT claim you have an elite D package when your results look like this:
    EV CF% 44.4% – third worst in the league, sandwiched solidly between COL and TOR.

    These are awful results, and more to the point, consistently awful results. Last year was the anomaly. It happens. All the time. They had the second highest sh% in the league last year. Team sh% is one of the least sustainable year-to-year metrics you will ever find.

    The Flames have (had) one true top pairing defender in Mark Giordano.

    They have a terrific second pairing defender in T J Brodie – who can also play first pairing when playing with Giordano. I call him second pairing because the results when those two are together are decent, but when they’re apart, they (especially Brodie), absolutely get their heads kicked in. To my mind, you can’t call a player a first pairing defender if you don’t make your partner better.

    For that reason, I would take Jeff Petry or Andrej Sekera over Brodie any day of the week. They both make their partners better. Petry was able to make Ference look competent at times. Brodie? Nope.

    Pair Petry or Sekera with Giordano and I guaran-damn-tee you we’d be falling all over each other anointing them as ‘unquestionably first pairing D’. First pairing D have that effect.

    In fairness, the whole ‘so much worse without each other’ is to some extent because of the sheer awfulness of the Flames D after those two. Basically, you have two good defenders and four Andrew Ferences. But to rephrase the question: how do you claim a defense is elite when you have four Andrew Ference’s playing for you?

    Now they’ve added Dougie Hamilton, who in my view is a legit top pairing D and shows all the signs of being a legit 1D, and they have unquestionably become a better team. Unquestionably. I’m hoping against hope that some of the criticisms turn out to to be true (some B’s fans as noted earlier consider him soft. Micah Blake McCurdy pointed out that Hamilton’s point totals may be misleading because he has an unusually high number of second assists). I hope that’s the case, but I’m not expecting it.

    Either way – based on the last three years of results, they have a LOOOOOONG way to go.

    If Hamilton and Frolik can improve them sufficiently that they can even sustain last years results, which is as a playoff bubble team, that to my mind will be a *very* impressive showing.

    They’ve still got an awful lot to prove before I’ll anoint them with the mantle of having an ‘elite’ defense. I’m hoping the Flames are buying the Kool Aid that last years results were legitimate, and so they don’t have the urgency to improve from the really really shitty team the fancystats say they unquestionably were.

    In fact, my biggest fear right now is that they also understand this, and are out there getting ready to sign Ehrhoff or Franson themselves. They have cap room galore. THAT would hurt. If they can do that, they may very well become an elite defensive team. Because they added two legit top pairing defenders!

    Most teams would threaten to become elite defensively if they add two top pairing defenders, yes?

    In any case, I hope Chia is not done. We do need to add another defender, a capable Top 4 guy.

    But apart from that – I’ll take my chances with McDeity, thank you very much!!

  69. dangilitis says:

    Tire Fire: This came out in a bit of a misleading way.It implies that there is something more wrong with the person responding to the troll than with the actual beast in it’s under-bridge lair.Shining more light on the poster than DSF is really only a re-expression of the fact that we simply know more about the simply motivated troll than we do of most posters.

    DSF is not trying to add something to the conversation, he is actively trying to take something away. People explaining their POV are appreciated greatly, those throwing out red herrings without any interest in getting across some underlying worldview are simply trying to waste my time. They can go eat a big bag of Pouliots.

    Sure, we discover the odd diamond in the lumps of dirt he lobs at us, but that’s just takes his input from negative 1 million to negative 0.9 million (in arbitrary information units, AIUs).

    Leave him in the mix or ban him, I don’t care, but let’s not forget that he is the one being a dink.

    I agree. Woodguy I respect your opinion but this is real preachy and hypocritical – does this mean that you’re a prick, then, because of the way you respond to him?

    Only a sadist comes on here and tries to bring misery to others. Whoever said this site is a circle jerk without DSF is completely out to lunch or has a very different view of this site than I. I think there were plenty of good and varied opinions on this site. People generally post here as passionate fans of the oilers to express their views about the team and learn from one another. Respect here has and should be earned. I have posted for years here, just as several others who expressed concerns about DSF and my continued enjoyment of this site should be no less important than his.

    Let me close by playing devils advocate here. If you think DSF should continue to post here (and he’ll come back, we all know this is true) then you should not have a problem with me speaking out against what I feel to be a complete and utter disrespect for the oilers, LT, and the passionate and intelligent fans of this site. You can’t have it both ways, lest you be seen as a hypocrite…

  70. smellyglove says:

    League’s different today than it was 10 years ago. Better defensive structures, obstruction, and, arguably, goal-tending has put a crimp on scoring.

    It McDavid cracks 70 points, it will put him in the top 20 in scoring, which would be great.

    Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but is McDavid not a shave below Crosby on the junior statistics side?

  71. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    I’m VERY tempted to copy this into a FN comment section just to see that site blow up with rage.

    I won’t.

    Maybe.

    😉

    As for the Flames, I think the moves they’ve made will pay off in so far as the timing will work against their division with the Canucks and Sharks either taking a step back or standing still while the Kings sort out their mess. The Oilers are still coming from a long way’s back and the Coyotes are road kill.

    However, if the division undergoes a transition and the Ducks, Kings, Oilers and Canucks can get themselves sorted out in short order then the Flames will have accomplished more or less what I had hoped for: a quick return to mediocrity.

    They have some C depth, but just enough and not altogether NHL ready just yet.

    They have some good D depth, but one will come on while another is in the proverbial back-9 of his career.

    They have some G depth but for this season only. After that things will need to change and the answer (Gilles) is still NHL-unproven.

    So is their rebuild over, as Cameron had boasted early last season?

    I’d say they’ve finished actively rebuilding, but I wouldn’t say the job is entirely complete.

  72. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    hunter1909: 1989 says hello.

    The early 80’s I should have clarified. They still needed the Oilers to own goal to win their only Cup. How ‘Lame is that?

  73. Derek says:

    http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–2VE0RBnk–/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/19fi29oa72y70jpg.jpg

    The rebuild is finished! Onward to victory!

    Edit to add: Hopefully if they regress a bit or run in place for a few seasons Burke will attribute it to not enough grit, or team character and go Full Sweeney/Benning.

  74. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: The early 80’s I should have clarified. They still needed the Oilers to own goal to win their only Cup. How ‘Lame is that?

    Wrong year. They lost to the Habs the own goal year (86). ’89 was not Steve Smith.

  75. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    That’s an excellent question. I did not run curves across the entire dataset, just the refined dataset I referenced in my NerdAlert articles. Maybe I’ll take a look if I have a chance. It would kind of be similar to the goalie work, comparing 1,300 sv% vs career sv%.

    I just updated that first NHLE article to include the data file if you want to take a look, which is at https://app.box.com/s/28czkxfin5iw1xpojfxe6zxs2zu04h5k

    Rob Vollman (to his eternal credit) also publishes all of his data files, which makes 80% of the work that I do way easier. You can find his equivalencies data file here: http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials/nhltranslations/translations.xls

  76. kinger_OIL says:

    I didn’t read anything DSF wrote as mean to anyone. Having a good conversationalist that questions status quo, and does so in a colourful manner is engaging. Yeah he moves the goal posts sometimes, and says things to provoke: but he’s about the only guy asking questions to challenge…Some of you guys need to get some perspective. It’s just a blog, we all are just posting on this community that we like. It’s not all that….I’m dissapointed actually that the masses in here felt compelled to isolate someone who isn’t status-quo. That’s sadly human nature though.

  77. Numenius says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Classy post to go out on, DSF.

    I’ve read your blog before and will be back again. All the best.

  78. Numenius says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: The early 80’s I should have clarified. They still needed the Oilers to own goal to win their only Cup. How ‘Lame is that?

    The year of the own goal was when Montreal won the cup, 1986.

    1989 was legit.

  79. book¡je says:

    kinger_OIL:
    I didn’t read anything DSF wrote as mean to anyone.Having a good conversationalist that questions status quo, and does so in a colourful manner is engaging.Yeah he moves the goal posts sometimes, and says things to provoke: but he’s about the only guy asking questions to challenge…Some of you guys need to get some perspective.It’s just a blog, we all are just posting on this community that we like.It’s not all that….I’m dissapointed actually that the masses in here felt compelled to isolate someone who isn’t status-quo.That’s sadly human nature though.

    LT – you’ve got to ban Kinger_Oil.

  80. Woodguy says:

    I’d like to bring the discussion about Dmen back around to something GMoney keeps hitting on.

    Everyone talks about getting rid of Nikitin, but Ference is the real issue.

    If you actually think that fancy stats are useful for evaluating players then Nikitin is not the biggest problem, not even close.

    I think Nikitin is actually a good example where he looks much worse than his results. The caveat being “when he plays” because he missed so much time due to being hurt/out of shape.

    Delta Fenwick for and against.

    Thinking along the sames lines as Burtch’s dCorsi (but on a much simpler level) the delta represents the difference between observed and expected.

    stats.hockeyanalysis.com has pages that give you this information.

    The one for Oiler Dmen Fenwick from last year is here:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201415&sit=5v5&type=fenwick&teamid=12&pos=defense&minutes=200&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

    ie.) Klefbom has on OPPFF60 (Opposition’s Fenwick For/60 when not against Klefbom) of 40.56.

    Klef’s FA (Fenwick Against, which equals opposition’s Fenwick For) of 39.92

    Therefore Klef’s Delta Fenwick Against was -0.64, showing he suppress FA/60 better than average.

    Keeping that in mind:

    Oilers’ Delta Fenwick Against last year:

    FAYNE, MARK -0.86
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR -0.64
    NIKITIN, NIKITA -0.4
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 1.21
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 1.22
    AULIE, KEITH 6.34
    FERENCE, ANDREW 6.34

    So 3 Oiler Dmen were better than average in this respect, and one of them was Nikitin.

    Its actually amazing how different Schultz and Klefbom are in this given that they played a lot together.

    Ference is terrible via this metric.

    This type of analysis doesn’t take into account zone starts and D partners etc, but its pretty interesting first blush that should lead to deeper questions.

  81. Richard S.S. says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Richard S.S.,

    You’re preaching to the choir on that one. I was tearing my hair out at the Ference and Schultz and Nikitin signings last year; a vocal group said to me at the time that “it doesn’t matter because we have the cap space,” to which I disagreed.

    I’ve also said many times in the past that Purcell should be bought out or traded with salary retained. He is an okay player, but not worth anywhere near $4.5M and his best years and foot speed are behind him. I would have happily moved on from him and replaced him with someone cheaper, like Winnik. When I see how “cheaply” the likes of Williams and Ward signed, this does bother me even more. Erat is still out there, isn’t he? He could be useful if Purcell could be moved for $1.5M retained and sign Erat for less than $3M.

    So, I’m not arguing your last point by any means.

    But to me, Gazdic is below replacement level. Klinkhammer, I don’t know. It’s not just about throwing out 4th line guys and calling them replacement level. The concept of it is what kind of player can you sign off the free agency scrap heap in a given year. And then are your players playing above that base level or below, and by how much.

    I agree with you. The only problem is that right now, most of those guys don’t have much, if any, value, unless they have good years. I don’t know about Defenseman, just when does it end.? I always had a problem with contracts including age 34 and on. Nikitin should be much better; does Ference even care.

  82. Woodguy says:

    dangilitis,

    Woodguy I respect your opinion but this is real preachy and hypocritical – does this mean that you’re a prick, then, because of the way you respond to him?

    Am I a hypocrite if I think I’ve responded poorly to him?

    Where does prick come into this?

    DSF throws the line in the water and everyone who bites is just a fish.

    I’ve tried not to be a fish anymore, but I sometimes am.

  83. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos": Wrong year. They lost to the Habs the own goal year (86). ’89 was not Steve Smith.

    Thanks, didn’t look it up to clarify. So they had to trade the greatest player of all time so the Flames could win. That makes it better 🙂

  84. John Chambers says:

    RexLibris:
    G Money,

    I’m VERY tempted to copy this into a FN comment section just to see that site blow up with rage.

    I won’t.

    Maybe.

    As for the Flames, I think the moves they’ve made will pay off in so far as the timing will work against their division with the Canucks and Sharks either taking a step back or standing still while the Kings sort out their mess. The Oilers are still coming from a long way’s back and the Coyotes are road kill.

    However, if the division undergoes a transition and the Ducks, Kings, Oilers and Canucks can get themselves sorted out in short order then the Flames will have accomplished more or less what I had hoped for: a quick return to mediocrity.

    They have some C depth, but just enough and not altogether NHL ready just yet.

    They have some good D depth, but one will come on while another is in the proverbial back-9 of his career.

    They have some G depth but for this season only. After that things will need to change and the answer (Gilles) is still NHL-unproven.

    So is their rebuild over, as Cameron had boasted early last season?

    I’d say they’ve finished actively rebuilding, but I wouldn’t say the job is entirely complete.

    Solid post, Rex.

    At this point id say the Pacific stack ranks as follows:
    Anaheim
    LA
    Vancouver
    San Jose
    Edmonton
    Calgary
    AZ

    Anaheim is the clear leader, LA lost a ton of OT games last year and are going to actually give a shit prior to Christmas, Van is declining albeit slowly, the Sharks have great veteran players however this could be the year it goes sour, while Calgary is due to pull a Colorado.

    By 2017 it’s Flames, Oilers, and Ducks at the top with Anaheim falling off shortly thereafter and Arizona beginning to compete with the Albertans.

  85. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Woodguy,

    Ference is terrible by every metric. Eye test or math test.

    I just don’t see a realistic option for moving him now. There is for Nikitin if money is retained. Problem with NN is he was paid way too much, had never proved capable away from Tyutin, and as you say, injured. Bad backs are killers. See Joensuu.

  86. dangilitis says:

    G Money:
    Re: a word on the Flames.

    Seems folks on this blog are all too willing to ascribe ‘elite’ qualities to the Flames D.“Oh they’re so much better than the Oilers!” “Adding Dougie Hamilton makes them one of the best in the league.”“The Oilers best D Sekera would be fourth on the Flames list.”

    BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT.Bullshit buzzer on all of those.Sorry.

    The Flames had a way-out-of-the-box year last year, driven by unsustainable shooting percentages.

    You simply CANNOT claim you have an elite D package when your results look like this:
    EV CF% 44.4% – third worst in the league, sandwiched solidly between COL and TOR.

    These are awful results, and more to the point, consistently awful results.Last year was the anomaly.It happens.All the time.They had the second highest sh% in the league last year.Team sh% is one of the least sustainable year-to-year metrics you will ever find.

    The Flames have (had) one true top pairing defender in Mark Giordano.

    They have a terrific second pairing defender in T J Brodie – who can also play first pairing when playing with Giordano.I call him second pairing because the results when those two are together are decent, but when they’re apart, they (especially Brodie), absolutely get their heads kicked in.To my mind, you can’t call a player a first pairing defender if you don’t make your partner better.

    For that reason, I would take Jeff Petry or Andrej Sekera over Brodie any day of the week.They both make their partners better.Petry was able to make Ference look competent at times.Brodie?Nope.

    Pair Petry or Sekera with Giordano and I guaran-damn-tee you we’d be falling all over each other anointing them as ‘unquestionably first pairing D’.First pairing D have that effect.

    In fairness, the whole ‘so much worse without each other’ is to some extent because of the sheer awfulness of the Flames D after those two.Basically, you have two good defenders and four Andrew Ferences.But to rephrase the question: how do you claim a defense is elite when you have four Andrew Ference’s playing for you?

    Now they’ve added Dougie Hamilton, who in my view is a legit top pairing D and shows all the signs of being a legit 1D, and they have unquestionably become a better team.Unquestionably.I’m hoping against hope that some of the criticisms turn out to to be true (some B’s fans as noted earlier consider him soft.Micah Blake McCurdy pointed out that Hamilton’s point totals may be misleading because he has an unusually high number of second assists).I hope that’s the case, but I’m not expecting it.

    Either way – based on the last three years of results, they have a LOOOOOONG way to go.

    If Hamilton and Frolik can improve them sufficiently that they can even sustain last years results, which is as a playoff bubble team, that to my mind will be a *very* impressive showing.

    They’ve still got an awful lot to prove before I’ll anoint them with the mantle of having an ‘elite’ defense.I’m hoping the Flames are buying the Kool Aid that last years results were legitimate, and so they don’t have the urgency to improve from the really really shitty team the fancystats say they unquestionably were.

    In fact, my biggest fear right now is that they also understand this, and are out there getting ready to sign Ehrhoff or Franson themselves.They have cap room galore.THAT would hurt.If they can do that, they may very well become an elite defensive team.Because they added two legit top pairing defenders!

    Most teams would threaten to become elite defensively if they add two top pairing defenders, yes?

    In any case, I hope Chia is not done.We do need to add another defender, a capable Top 4 guy.

    But apart from that – I’ll take my chances with McDeity, thank you very much!!

    I agree wholeheartedly with all of this.

    Their D is pretty darn solid.

    What’s funny to me is the injury prone label attached to Hall by a great many. Yet turning the attention to the flames forwards, how is Bennett not considered a risk? He has never hit a full nhl season worth of play and can’t even do a chin up! Last part was a joke but let’s see how he holds up through a regular nhl season.

    Lambert had a great article on how the Flames may still regress with frolik and Hamilton around, and all he got was a bunch of hate.

    I highly doubt that the shooting percentages will hold up, and Calgary already had plenty of o from the d last year (178 pts from top 4) so bringing dougie in may not help them here

    Forwards to me are a big question mark – hudler had a season reminiscent of eberle’s lady byng campaign year that has not been replicated, monahans play is not true #1 line worthy and gaudreau will have to show me more before I can be persuaded). I am also convinced that neither goalie is good enough

    Finally calgarys record against the pacific was incredible but hardly reproducible.

  87. Younger Oil says:

    smellyglove:
    League’s different today than it was 10 years ago. Better defensive structures, obstruction, and, arguably, goal-tending has put a crimp on scoring.

    It McDavid cracks 70 points, it will put him in the top 20 in scoring, which would be great.

    Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but is McDavid not a shave below Crosby on the junior statistics side?

    The output of each team was very similar, Rimouski scoring 333 goals to Erie’s 327. During the regular season:

    McDavid’s IPP was 0.531, with 2.55 PPG.

    Crosby’s IPP was 0.570, with 2.71 PPG.

    Keep in mind that McDavid had an injured hand as well.

    Factoring in the playoffs to increase the sample size:

    McDavid’s IPP was 0.540, with 2.52 PPG.

    Crosby’s IPP was 0.544, with 2.65 PPG.

    I could have made a calculator error somewhere, but I think they are right.

    To me, this shows that McDavid is right there with Crosby in terms of production. Who knows what would have happened if McDavid wasn’t set back with the hand injury.

  88. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: I’ve tried not to be a fish anymore

    Trying very hard not to make a joke about drinking.

  89. G Money says:

    RexLibris: I’m VERY tempted to copy this into a FN comment section just to see that site blow up with rage.

    Oooooh, I can just imagine!

    Maybe I should start trolling my Oiler fandom over there, the way a certain … never mind … I could never add in the kind of over-the-top comparisons and sophistry needed for that kind of thing, let alone sustain it for years on end!

    RexLibris: So is their rebuild over, as Cameron had boasted early last season?

    I sincerely hope the Flames think so. The fact that they were in on the Hamilton deal suggests that Treliving and co. are smarter than the average Flames fan, and know they need to get quite a bit better.

    That may sound like a backhanded insult, but lets bear in mind that the Oilers have had 9 years of management demonstrably less capable than a number of the folks who post here!

    Whether the Flames can become truly competitive I actually think hinges on two forwards (as I posted a few days ago): Gaudreau and Bennett.

    The former took a lot of teams by surprise last year. I do not think he will this year. He will be targeted this year, both on a defensive gameplan and for physical punishment, in a way that he really wasn’t last year. If he can sustain, he goes a long way to legitimizing the Flames rebuild. But that’s an if, not a certainty.

    Bennett I’m more certain that if he stays in the league, he’ll be a truly elite player. The issue Flames fans should worry about is durability. The biggest concern I’ve always had with Taylor Hall is whether he can stay healthy or not.

    Sam Bennett plays the same cannonball style as Taylor Hall – but he has RNH’s physique. The early returns, both from his last Jr year and his short stint in the NHL, already suggest that he’s going to take a pounding his body may not be able to sustain.

    If he cannot physically handle the NHL game, the Flames C depth vanishes.

    And IMO, that depth is nowhere near as good as people claim it is – after Monahan and Bennett, not a single one of the Flames C have a ppg as good as even Anton Lander. If you were to stack up the skills of the C group, I’d say they look like this:

    McDavid – way ahead of the rest
    Bennett – but only if he can stay healthy, no sure thing
    RNH, Monahan, Draisaitl – and RNH and Drai already statistically have elite two-way games, while Monahan gets his head kicked in shotwise nightly
    Lander
    all the rest of the Flames C

    I’ll take the Oilers C depth over the Flames 1000x over.

  90. Ducey says:

    I am not sure if we are allowed to post about Oiler prospects in this thread, but I will risk getting banned. I went to the camp this morning. I stole the practice plan for my kids’ teams. Observations:

    1) Nurse is an absolute beast. Oilers fans are going to love him.
    2) Betker is one large human. And he skates pretty well – and can handle the puck. Looks like an absolute steal.
    3) Joey Legs is kind of a weird skater. Long strider. Some good things.
    4) Evan Campbell impressed. He is quite big and strong and can skate. If he can get up to a point per game in college this year, he could be a steal too.
    5) Leon is so impressive too. He looks like a Tiger Tank out there. Throwing pucks to the kids too.
    6) I liked Platzer. He seems like a complete player.
    7) All the brass watched both sessions. MacT, TMc, Chia, Howson, Green, a couple of others. No Lowe.
    8) Jones looked very frustrated most of his time on ice
    9) Chase was picked as first star of the 1st session. The players were stretching around center ice and once Chase had done his lap he skated right thru the middle of everyone and did a hard stop, giving Nurse (who was on his knees) a snow shower. They kind of yucked it up after that. Does point to Chase being a shit disturber.
    10) McDavid looked a little uncomfortable with some of the drills but on anything involving a 1 on 1 he looked like a fast train passing someone standing next to the tracks.
    11) Loik wasn’t really impressive to my eye. But he is 18 in camp with many older players. Diddo Soy.
    12) McCarron is big but doesn’t move that well or have very good hands. He was on a 3 on 2 drill and stepped over the blueline and took a slapshot rather than finding the open guy. Not exactly what the coach wants in practice. I can’t see him getting a contract.
    13) Free popcorn!
    14) The new 2015 picks all look like solid players physically and they can skate.
    15) Most of the camp invites looked like the security guys in the red uni’s from original Star Trek. They will be killed off soon enough.
    16) Lagesson looked good.

  91. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    John Chambers,

    LA could be losing Williams, Sekera, Stoll, Jones, Voynov (perhaps). Tough to stay afloat there. Depends on Voynov and what they do with Richards’ money I guess.

    San Jose is doing okay. I’d rank them ahead of Vancouver. Anaheim is the class of the division , agreed.

    Anaheim

    Calgary/San Jose/LA
    Vancouver/Edmonton

    Arizona

  92. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    I like Backlund a lot as a checking C.

    Wait…I’m talking nicely about the Flames.

    BAN ME!!!!!!!!!!

  93. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Wrong year. They lost to the Habs that year. ’89 was not Steve Smith.

    Yes that Steve Smith goal was1986 . Flames lost in SCF to Montreal 4 games to 1.

    Still irks me…

    And if I may I LOVED the early 80s Oiler domination of the Canucks and Flames! Something so satisfying about seeing the Flames or Canucks flounder. Nothing like a good “AKR” (a@& kicking and a runaway)!

  94. spoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    I think Padre posted some data that showed that Schultz and NN gave up a larger percentage of high danger zone scoring chances than most did, which is why Corsi and eye don’t match.

  95. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: Everyone talks about getting rid of Nikitin, but Ference is the real issue.

    Excellent post.

    It’s reasonable to be concerned that the D hasn’t improved enough for this year, but we have to realize how much simply leaving Ference off the roster will help.

    Addition by subtraction.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Thanks for the report.

    13) Free popcorn!

    You can tell that Laforge doesn’t work there anymore already!

    That and you didn’t have to pay $5 to get in.

    Thanks again.

  97. spoiler says:

    Ducey: 2) Betker is one large human. And he skates pretty well – and can handle the puck. Looks like an absolute steal.

    Every time I have seen Betker play live, I have come away almost shocked at how good he looked.

  98. Bling says:

    Woodguy,

    RE: Ference

    That coppernblue article using delta Corsi comes to the same conclusion about him. He needs to go.

    Nikitin would make some brain dead plays at times, but he was one of very few Oiler D who wouldn’t panic when retrieving the puck. He would slow things down and try to make a play.

  99. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I like Backlund a lot as a checking C.

    So do I. By no means would I suggest the Flames don’t have some really nice pieces. They do. Just that the praise of them – the actual results are not sustainable, they were truly a shitty shitty team last year – is way over the top.

    (Hopefully the nice thing I just said about them is balanced by the second sentence, preventing me from GETTING BANNED!!)

  100. Adam Wu says:

    Numenius: The year of the own goal was when Montreal won the cup, 1986.

    1989 was legit.

    They needed the Oilers to trade away Gretzky, and for Gretzky’s Kings to eliminate Messier’s Oilers for them….

  101. Bling says:

    Younger Oil: The output of each team was very similar, Rimouski scoring 333 goals to Erie’s 327. During the regular season:

    McDavid’s IPP was 0.531, with 2.55 PPG.

    Crosby’s IPP was 0.570, with 2.71 PPG.

    Keep in mind that McDavid had an injured hand as well.

    Factoring in the playoffs to increase the sample size:

    McDavid’s IPP was 0.540, with 2.52 PPG.

    Crosby’s IPP was 0.544, with 2.65 PPG.

    I could have made a calculator error somewhere, but I think they are right.

    To me, this shows that McDavid is right there with Crosby in terms of production. Who knows what would have happened if McDavid wasn’t set back with the hand injury.

    Yeesh that is some domination by Crosby.

    IIRC, he didn’t have anyone on his team that was anything close to Dylan Strome.

  102. G Money says:

    Ducey,

    Great stuff, thanks for posting that.

    I read somewhere that Nurse had put on 20 lbs since last September!

    Did that look true? That would put him well over 200 lbs at the age of 20, and 3 years shy of true ‘man strength’.

    I’ve heard multiple posts from people at the prospect camp about what a monster he is, and he’s got that giant lanky frame that would easily let him put on that kind of weight without losing speed or mobility. Plus the pro athlete bloodline from his Dad’s CFL career! (I was going to add Donovan McNabb, who was one incredible athletic specimen, but he’s not related by blood so he doesn’t count).

    Scary indeed.

  103. John Chambers says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Yeah I re-ranked mine several times but came to two conclusions:
    1) LA is better than last year’s finish, but will be tempered by their personnel losses
    2) Calgary is worse than their record – the addition of Frolik will saw off with Hudlers career year, and adding Hamilton will balance Hiller’s return to earth.

    San Jose could win the division or they could finish 6th. Depends on how cohesive the locker room is.

  104. Bling says:

    Here’s an idea:

    Why don’t we look at Vollman’s for all age 20 and 21 defencemen from the past 3 years?

    It’d be interesting to see how they were used match up wise and how they performed.

    Might give us some insight on what to expect from Nurse/Reinhart, or whether they should be both in the A.

  105. dangilitis says:

    Woodguy:
    dangilitis,

    Woodguy I respect your opinion but this is real preachy and hypocritical – does this mean that you’re a prick, then, because of the way you respond to him?

    Am I a hypocrite if I think I’ve responded poorly to him?

    Where does prick come into this?

    DSF throws the line in the water and everyone who bites is just a fish.

    I’ve tried not to be a fish anymore, but I sometimes am.

    Well it sounded like you were flagging other posters, and in so doing, detaching yourself from the conversation. The point I was trying to make is that you are not a prick, and neither am I. I am not some sucker taking bait, either – by the way, I fucking hate that analogy. I am allowed to call bullshit and I agree with whoever said that such bs should not be normalized simply by ignoring it. That’s like going to an oilers Canadiens game and not giving your wife’s grandfather the business for chanting go habs go in your own rink. Well maybe not exactly… The fact that we are having this conversation in the first place is because someone else is an oppositional defiant prick. That is what he brings to this site and i for one do not see why others think that this is negated by the number of posts he has had over the years and the occasional quality criticism that we all are aware of without his insight

  106. oliveoilers says:

    Ok, finished my chores.

    What are we outraged about this afternoon?

  107. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    I think Padre posted some data that showed that Schultz and NN gave up a larger percentage of high danger zone scoring chances than most did, which is why Corsi and eye don’t match.

    Nope.

    Oilers’ High Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie 20.98
    Martin.Marincin 19.08
    Mark.Fayne 17.16
    Oscar.Klefbom 17.14
    Justin.Schultz 16.78
    Andrew.Ference 16.33
    Nikita.Nikitin 15.8
    Jeff.Petry 15.27

    Ference looks better here (probably aided by time with Petry)

    Here’s straight Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie 33.82
    Martin.Marincin 30.72
    Oscar.Klefbom 30.03
    Andrew.Ference 29.14
    Justin.Schultz 28.95
    Mark.Fayne 28.39
    Jeff.Petry 27.48
    Nikita.Nikitin 26.7

    Niktin is not the problem.

    If the fat bastard would do some core work outs and stop eating hotdogs (/simmons) he’ll help this year.

    Get rid of Ference by any means necessary.

    Also,

    Young Marincin didn’t do well by either metric.

    Didn’t have as good a year as the one before for sure.

    NOTE: All data from waronice.com

    http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=8&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit=&playoffs=All&names=&team=EDM&pos=6&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=&yaxis=&caxis=&saxis=&mintoi=200&tab=1&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2015-07-04&splitseasons=1

  108. Revolved says:

    As much as I hate to argue for the Flames, I think this season would be a lot more fun with some competition in Alberta. Last season the lack of competition was completely coming from our side, with a combined score line of 21-8. I want a silver lining as much as anyone, but we got our asses handed to us offensively and defensively by a team that statistically should have been one of the worst in the league.

    The Oilers website currently lists our D pairs as Sekera-Fayne, Klefbom-Schultz and Ference-Gryba, with Nikitin-Reinhart as 7/8. Sadly, I think this is how it will look. As the captain with a NMC, I fully expect Ference will dress most every night (was he ever a healthy scratch last year?). Combine this with the lack of a bonafide 1A defenceman, and I’m not seeing us do better than splitting the season series with Calgary.

    How do you guys think the season series with Calgary will go? Anyone have any creative ways to get rid of our Captain?

  109. thejonrmcleod says:

    When you look at the recent work of Benning and Sweeney, it’s easy to decipher who was the brains behind the Bruins’ operation.

  110. Woodguy says:

    Bling: Yeesh that is some domination by Crosby.

    IIRC, he didn’t have anyone on his team that was anything close to Dylan Strome.

    Not having a Strome would increase Crosby’s IPP as the teams would score less goals.

    McDavid doing what he did with a good #2C makes his numbers just that more impressive imo.

  111. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    I’m wondering because I want to know how tight the curve is.

    If a player posts a number say 10 points above his NHLe, is that a one sigma event, two?

    How confident can we be on range? Should we be expressing NHLe with that range?

    For eg, McHockey has an NHLe of 74 pts +/- 5pts 68.2% of the time.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Bling:
    Woodguy,

    RE: Ference

    That coppernblue article using delta Corsi comes to the same conclusion about him. He needs to go.

    Nikitin would make some brain dead plays at times, but he was one of very few Oiler D who wouldn’t panic when retrieving the puck. He would slow things down and try to make a play.

    Agreed.

    Nikitin actually makes a good break out pass and decent decisions with the puck when he’s doesn’t have his tinfoil hat on and skate laces tied together.

  113. spoiler says:

    oliveoilers:
    Ok, finished my chores.

    What are we outraged about this afternoon?

    I think we’re moving on to witch hunts. Or line brawls, I’m not sure.

  114. Numenius says:

    Ducey,

    Great report.

    Did you happen to notice Loiseau at all?

    Seems like he could be an F that comes in under the radar this year and impresses.

  115. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    I like Backlund a lot as a checking C.

    Wait…I’m talking nicely about the Flames.

    BAN ME!!!!!!!!!!

    He got the Horcoff contract same age 3.6M

    Converted a lot of flames fans at work re Backlund.

  116. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Nope.

    Oilers’ High Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie20.98
    Martin.Marincin19.08
    Mark.Fayne17.16
    Oscar.Klefbom17.14
    Justin.Schultz16.78
    Andrew.Ference16.33
    Nikita.Nikitin15.8
    Jeff.Petry15.27

    Ference looks better here (probably aided by time with Petry)

    Here’s straight Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie33.82
    Martin.Marincin30.72
    Oscar.Klefbom30.03
    Andrew.Ference29.14
    Justin.Schultz28.95
    Mark.Fayne28.39
    Jeff.Petry27.48
    Nikita.Nikitin26.7

    Thank you. I could have swore FrJohn put up something horrible about Schultz and NN, but apparently it wasn’t this.

  117. PaperDesigner says:

    Every time I look at the Oilers blueline, I can’t help but feel we are stuck waiting for Nurse to blossom into a top pairing defenceman.

    Sekera is a great addition, but who else is ready to play with him in the top pairing? Fayne? Klefbom?

    I think there are enough players who could play with someone else anchoring a pairing, but Sekera is the only one I see strong enough to carry a pairing by himself. They badly need one of Klefbom or Nurse to be the other guy.

    It has to be at least one season too early to expect that.

  118. Younger Oil says:

    Bling: Yeesh that is some domination by Crosby.

    IIRC, he didn’t have anyone on his team that was anything close to Dylan Strome.

    It’s tough to tell because data doesn’t state who each player played with (McDavid and Strome rarely played even strength minutes together from some reports), but here is the full season data from the 2nd and 3rd top scoring players on each team:

    Erie:

    Strome had an IPP of 0.367 with 1.72 PPG

    DeBrincat had an IPP of 0.292 with 1.36 PPG

    Rimouski:

    Roussin had an IPP of 0.340 with 1.66 PPG

    Pouliot had an IPP of 0.328 with 1.60 PPG

    So, Crosby had less high profile, but older and more experienced linemates. So while Strome and DeBrincat will be likely be better NHL players than Crosby’s linemates, they didn’t contribute more to McDavid than Roussin and Pouliot did to Crosby.

  119. v4ance says:

    G Money,

    RE: Flames

    They’ve actually run out of cap room! http://war-on-ice.com/cap/CGY.html

    If you look at their forwards, they still have about 5 RFAs to sign and only $5M left to the cap. They spent too much on goalies ~$8M and their D is a little too expensive as well.

    The reason I was looking at the Flames was that i was actually looking for realistic landing spots for Cody Franson. He’s still unsigned and looking for $5+ million and term but he’s almost out of options. UFA musical chairs has stopped and he’s still standing.

    At this point, the only teams with cap and a spare roster spot are Toronto or NJ. Every other team either has signed 6+ D or has no cap room to give out a big $5+M contract.

  120. oliveoilers says:

    spoiler: I think we’re moving on to witch hunts. Or line brawls, I’m not sure.

    Awesome, like a pick-up game? Who’s side am I on?

  121. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: Yes that Steve Smith goal was1986 . Flames lost in SCF to Montreal 4 games to 1.

    Still irks me…

    And if I may I LOVED the early 80s Oiler domination of the Canucks and Flames! Something so satisfying about seeing the Flames or Canucks flounder. Nothing like a good “AKR” (a@& kicking and a runaway)!

    I loved it too but was pretty young. I don’t think I’ll complain if they get back to that level of dominating other teams.

  122. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Nope.

    Oilers’ High Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie20.98
    Martin.Marincin19.08
    Mark.Fayne17.16
    Oscar.Klefbom17.14
    Justin.Schultz16.78
    Andrew.Ference16.33
    Nikita.Nikitin15.8
    Jeff.Petry15.27

    Ference looks better here (probably aided by time with Petry)

    Here’s straight Scoring Chances Against per 60:

    Keith.Aulie33.82
    Martin.Marincin30.72
    Oscar.Klefbom30.03
    Andrew.Ference29.14
    Justin.Schultz28.95
    Mark.Fayne28.39
    Jeff.Petry27.48
    Nikita.Nikitin26.7

    Niktin is not the problem.

    If the fat bastard would do some core work outs and stop eating hotdogs (/simmons) he’ll help this year.

    Get rid of Ference by any means necessary.

    Also,

    Young Marincin didn’t do well by either metric.

    Didn’t have as good a year as the one before for sure.

    NOTE: All data from waronice.com

    http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=8&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit=&playoffs=All&names=&team=EDM&pos=6&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=&yaxis=&caxis=&saxis=&mintoi=200&tab=1&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2015-07-04&splitseasons=1

    Those numbers do support the theory on Marincin… That he’s A+ in the neutral zone preventing zone entries, hence pushing up his corsI, but once he’s in the defensive zone, he struggles to make the stop, hence the higher scoring chances and high danger scoring chances

  123. spoiler says:

    PSA:

    Pea-sized hail on its way to NW Calgary if you’re in the area.

  124. wheatnoil says:

    spoiler,

    Thanks for that! Read the first article but missed the next ones.

  125. v4ance says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    RE: Warren Moon

    I was thinking of a previous thread where you were discussing Moon. When he first came to Edmonton, he got me into watching football. His playing style was very Russel Wilson (dual threat runner or passer) at the start but by the time he went to the NFL, he settled into being a great pocket passer and not running as much.

  126. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ducey,

    Cool stuff! Thanks.

  127. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    When you look at the recent work of Benning and Sweeney, it’s easy to decipher who was the brains behind the Bruins’ operation.

    I have been quite surprised at Benning’s meat-headedness. Quite surprising as Linden and he were skill players but they seem to be going full gritensity. Linden must have bought into the too soft thing, deeply. They are going to be a very mediocre team for a long time. Back to normal I suppose.

  128. Revolved says:

    The issue with Ference really is clouded by him being the Captain, as he will not sit for long stretches with the C. Perhaps it would be best if next season had several players wearing As, with no C? This would allow McDavid the chance to earn it.

    If we buy out Ference next summer, what’s the hit?

  129. G Money says:

    v4ance,

    Excellent point, thanks for the update. So as it currently stands, $5M or so in cap room with RFAs left to sign. Not so easy to add a big contract.

    I do think they have more cap room than this suggests, though.

    Although they have a bunch of RFAs to sign (Bouma, Jooris, Ferland in particular) still, the roster shows that they already have twelve F, 7 D, and 2 G signed. A normal full roster is 23, which typically means 13 F, 8 D, 2G, or 14 F, 7D, 2G.

    If they can sign those additional guys at $1M to $2M ish deals, they will have to send a few others down (they have no choice), which creates some cap offset room.

    So they still have some cap space, but in that sense, it looks like you are absolutely right: the likelihood at this point they can add a big contract guy like Franson or Ehrhoff is pretty low, unless they can send a hefty underperforming contract like Smid, Raymond, or David Jones elsewhere.

    Same boat as the Oilers, really. We can add Ehrhoff or Franson, but only if someone like Nikitin or Ference are out the door. And as I’ve been banging the drum for a while now (and as the thread above is discussing) Ference is way more the problem than Nikitin! But also way harder to get rid of in all likelihood.

    Oh well, either way, I feel better now! Thanks!

  130. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,
    Teams can be 10pct over the cap in the off season. Oilers can make more moves then buy out or move players later if need be.

    So it shouldn’t be a hindrance from making moves if there are any there.

  131. oliveoilers says:

    McBain signs in LA.

    MENDOOOOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAA!

  132. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: Those numbers do support the theory on Marincin… That he’s A+ in the neutral zone preventing zone entries, hence pushing up his corsI, but once he’s in the defensive zone, he struggles to make the stop, hence the higher scoring chances and high danger scoring chances

    And potentially also why Chia Pete might have sent him away and signed Gryba. The numbers suggest Gryba is the opposite – he can’t prevent the zone entries, but he’s much tougher to play against once in the D zone, especially for the opposing forwards to get to Ricki’s Box. And that was a big problem for the Oilers last year.

    It will be interesting to see how Gryba and Reinhart play out this coming year – Chia’s eye for D, and therefore the moves he’s made, may be better than the fancystats give him credit for.

  133. cabbiesmacker says:

    kinger_OIL:
    I didn’t read anything DSF wrote as mean to anyone.Having a good conversationalist that questions status quo, and does so in a colourful manner is engaging.Yeah he moves the goal posts sometimes, and says things to provoke: but he’s about the only guy asking questions to challenge…Some of you guys need to get some perspective.It’s just a blog, we all are just posting on this community that we like.It’s not all that….I’m dissapointed actually that the masses in here felt compelled to isolate someone who isn’t status-quo.That’s sadly human nature though.

    Hear, hear. Hard to believe some are so thin skinned and quite frankly, to me it’s just so Calgary Puck, where bannings for saying anything remotely anti-Flame are handed out on a whimsy.

    That said I don’t believe DSF was banned. Unless LT had a sidebar chat with him it looked like he left of his own accord. Too bad imo. It’d be a shame if everyone in this world had the same opinion but alas, we are a society that has become so politically correct and weak kneed that it’s outright nauseating.

    Especially hilarious is that one of his biggest detractors on this very blog was an individual banned from pretty much every hockey site on the internet not so long ago. Now That was an asshole.

  134. Bryan says:

    Adam Wu: They needed the Oilers to trade away Gretzky, and for Gretzky’s Kings to eliminate Messier’s Oilers for them….

    Oilers were up 3-1 in that series but they just couldn’t find the killer instinct to finish off Gretzky.

  135. cabbiesmacker says:

    oliveoilers:
    McBain signs in LA.

    MENDOOOOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAA!

    The Simpsons janitor?

  136. sliderule says:

    G Money,

    I posted on this about three years ago.

    The weakness of the NHLe is pretty simple it’s an average .

    The stronger player pulls it up and the weaker players drag it down.

    My prediction for Mcdavid is 85 puts.

  137. Bryan says:

    v4ance:
    theres oil in virginia,

    RE: Warren Moon

    I was thinking of a previous thread where you were discussing Moon.When he first came to Edmonton, he got me into watching football.His playing style was very Russel Wilson (dual threat runner or passer) at the start but by the time he went to the NFL, he settled into being a great pocket passer and not running as much.

    Warren was much bigger and stronger than Russell and threw one of the most accurate balls with the best spiral that either league has seen. Doug Flutie is probably a better comparable for Wilson.

  138. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    cabbiesmacker: The Simpsons janitor?

    McBain is the Arnold-like action movie star in the Simpsons (upon closer inspection, these are loafers).

    Janitor is “Groundskeeper” Willie MacDougal

  139. G Money says:

    sliderule,

    Yes. I went to the effort of reworking the regression using ONLY forwards drafted top 5 in the last 10 years. That regression puts McDavid at 74 points in a full season. Would be interested to hear your take on that. (https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/19/mcpredicting-what-does-the-math-say/)

    I think 85 pts is too optimistic for the current era. Crosby himself finished third this year and had 84 pts, and he played almost a full season.

    Crosby finished sixth in league scoring in his rookie year.

    If we use that as the benchmark, McDavid would be around 78 points. Unless the Oilers add another puck moving D, I think that would be an optimistic upper limit for next year.

  140. geowal says:

    spoiler:
    PSA:

    Pea-sized hail on its way to NW Calgary if you’re in the area.

    Thanks for that, just put the tomaters in the shed. ‘Tis getting pretty dark out there.

  141. Younger Oil says:

    Just looking at all that has been done in the past couple of months is incredible.

    Chiarelli replaces MacT

    McLellan replaces Eakins/Nelson

    McDavid replaces Roy

    Korpikoski replaces Fraser

    Letestu replaces Gordon

    Sekera replaces Petry

    Gryba replaces Aulie

    Reinhart replaces Marincin

    Talbot replaces Fasth

    Those are 6 clear wins and the other 3 are still up in the air, but could turn out well.

    All of that was done for 6 draft picks and Katz’ money.

    AND we still have Draisaitl and Nurse waiting in the wings.

    AND we may not be done yet.

    At first I was kind of against giving up 5 picks in a generational draft to achieve that, but if you view all of that as a package deal, it is incredible.

  142. Soup Fascist says:

    Clearly this gambit has all been orchestrated by “he who shall not be named”. Realizing the Oilers have turned the corner both in management and personnel and will soon become a powerful force again in the league, concludes there will be a murder of crows to be consumed.

    Rather than face this grim fate, a series of over the top comments are made culminating in the Sam Bennett is better than Connor McDreamy volley. Voila! – outrage and condemnation combined with pitchforks and torches at the steps of Lowetide Castle. Our “villain” stoically falls on his sword – thereby avoiding the comeuppance that was at hand.

    Well played.

    Now having said that, should rebuild 3.0 fall flat on its face expect a new poster – Dirk S. Feeney to begin posting.

  143. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: And potentially also why Chia Pete might have sent him away and signed Gryba.The numbers suggest Gryba is the opposite – he can’t prevent the zone entries, but he’s much tougher to play against once in the D zone, especially for the opposing forwards to get to Ricki’s Box.And that was a big problem for the Oilers last year.

    It will be interesting to see how Gryba and Reinhart play out this coming year – Chia’s eye for D, and therefore the moves he’s made, may be better than the fancystats give him credit for.

    Actually, Marincin’s number is even worse when you consider his corsi. Marincin has a very high number of high danger shots / 60, but his corsi is pretty good so he doesn’t spend much time one defensive zone… BUT that means that he’s racking up high danger scoring chances against in relatively less defensive zone time.

    Opposite of Gryba. Gryba has ++d-zone starts and a poor raw corsi. However, his HD chances are quite low, DESPITE spending all his time in the d-zone.

    A ratio of HD SC to corsi may be helpful to determine how players do once in particular zones.

  144. G Money says:

    Younger Oil,

    Yes!

    I was going to do that list of deltas.

    The defense is only mildly improved IMO, but I think the overall team will be vastly better next year, for the reasons you’ve put forward.

    Excellent list.

  145. Younger Oil says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Or he could become the evil alter ego of one of the commenters here, Dark Soup Fascist!

  146. geowal says:

    Younger Oil,

    And we never have to listen to Patrick Laforge again.

    Also: Don’t know what the net effect is, but Woodcroft and Johnson replace Ramsay and Smith.

  147. Ducey says:

    Numenius:
    Ducey,

    Great report.

    Did you happen to notice Loiseau at all?

    Seems like he could be an F that comes in under the radar this year and impresses.

    I did. He seemed pretty average in everything. The only time I really noticed him was on a 1 on 1 angling drill. The idea was to keep the puck carrier outside. He let his guy cut back into the middle pretty easily, whereas the better prospects rode their checks out fairly confidently in the boards. Based on this infinitesimal evidence and his good point totals maybe the knock on him is his glove.

    Oh, and popcorn was free last year too.

  148. geowal says:

    spoiler,

    ..and here come the pretzels. (Hail that is)

  149. rickithebear says:

    Even Age NHLE stars:
    AT draft
    ANA 0
    ARZ Strome; Fisher;
    BOS Debrusk; Senyshyn; Lauzon; Gabrielle
    BUF Eichel
    CGY 0
    CAR Hanafin; AHO
    CHI 0
    COL Meloche
    CBJ Werenski; Bittner; Stenlund
    DAL Gurianov
    DET Svechnikov
    EDM Mcdavid Levielle Soy
    FLD Crouse;
    LAK 0
    MIN 0
    MTL Juulsen; Vedjemo
    NSH Trenin; A. Richard
    NJD Zacha
    NYI Beauvillier; Vande Sompel; Wotherspoon; Pilon
    NYR 0
    OTT Gagne; Chlapik
    PHI Provorov; Koenecny
    PIT Sprong
    SJS Meier
    STL 0
    TBL YAN
    TOR Marner; Bracco; Timashov; Korostelev
    VCR 0
    WSH Hobbs
    WPG Connar; Raslovic; Foley

    there are 2 others i cannot remember.
    though 1 is an invite to TOR
    normally you hope for a 20 strong even NHLE players per draft.
    there are 41 in this draft.

  150. v4ance says:

    geowal: Thanks for that, just put the tomaters in the shed. ‘Tis getting pretty dark out there.

    Torrential rain followed by that pea sized hail here in Sunnyside staring about 4:05

  151. oliveoilers says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: McBain is the Arnold-like action movie star in the Simpsons (upon closer inspection, these are loafers).

    Janitor is “Groundskeeper” Willie MacDougal

    The McBain vignettes in the Simpsons actually run consecutively. YouTube to watch them all put together!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyANa71gvU

  152. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil: A ratio of HD SC to corsi may be helpful to determine how players do once in particular zones.

    Closer!

  153. G Money says:

    v4ance: Torrential rain followed by that pea sized hail here in Sunnyside staring about 4:05

    Ditto here in Patterson, but its already over with (unless it starts again).

  154. Soup Fascist says:

    Younger Oil,

    Mind blown!!

  155. oliveoilers says:

    Soup Fascist: Dirk S. Feeney

    Irwin R. Scheister and Flowers By Irene are my favourites.

    Dweezle S. Felcher III?

    Hope he pops in from time to time, just to pull the pin on the grenade before leaving, for old times sake and to keep us real.

  156. v4ance says:

    Bryan,

    Totally agree with you on Moon’s physical gifts. I remember in the first few seasons where he and Tom Wilkinson would platoon with Wilkinson being the pure pocket passer and Moon was the “running’ QB and they’d both throw long bombs to Brian Kelly or short clinical strikes to Marco Cyncar. With Lumsden in the backfield, and a solid D that team was nearly unstoppable.

    If I was comparing Moon physically to an NFL QB, it’d be closer to a young Donovan MacNabb. I chose Wilson as a comparable because he does well in pressure situations and finds ways to win the big games.

  157. oliveoilers says:

    It’s a cool 14C in the Peace. Light rain, we need torrential as there’s a wildfire between here and Worsely.

    Roast Belly Pork with crackling for dinner.

    Waiting for new thread and some normalcy returning from trying to find out if DSF ways the same as a duck.

    Lot’s of coverage of Connor on Sportsnet site. They can do one thing right, then.

    Edit: It’s ‘weighs’, you mouth-breather.

  158. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Teams can be 10pct over the cap in the off season. Oilers can make more moves then buy out or move players later if need be.
    So it shouldn’t be a hindrance from making moves if there are any there.

    Fair point. That said (and this applies to both the Flameouts and the Oilers)

    – the buyout window is closed, so you’re pretty much stuck with moving players to get within the cap. Bad bargaining position to be in!

    – the current cap hits for both teams don’t include the bonus overages, and it’s reasonable to think that a number of those will be achieved on both teams, especially McDeity!

    wheatnoil,

    That makes sense. I still rue the Marincin trade, because even as the more complete fancystats picture doesn’t put him in as good a light as we often suggest, he’s only 80 games into his career. He will get (a lot) better, of this I have no doubt.

    Gryba has room to improve as well, but his age (27) and GP (160ish) put him much closer to his ultimate ceiling.

  159. oliveoilers says:

    G Money: I still rue the Marincin trade

    I’m wondering if this was done more for him than us. “Okay Martin, we realise that the damage is done. Where do you want to go. TO is interested.”

  160. Soup Fascist says:

    v4ance:
    Bryan,

    Totally agree with you on Moon’s physical gifts.I remember in the first few seasons where he and Tom Wilkinson would platoon with Wilkinson being the pure pocket passer and Moon was the “running’ QB and they’d both throw long bombs to Brian Kelly or short clinical strikes to Marco Cyncar.With Lumsden in the backfield, and a solid D that team was nearly unstoppable.

    If I was comparing Moon physically to an NFL QB, it’d be closer to a young Donovan MacNabb.I chose Wilson as a comparable because he does well in pressure situations and finds ways to win the big games.

    Wow. I have not heard reference to “Disco Marco” in forever. Didn’t he end up teaching high school in Edmonton or something after his playing days? Dude had some Duguay-like locks.

    Edit: I don’t remember many bombs from Wilkie. Certainly not as many as underhanded shovel passes of 3 yards that Germany would turn into net 25 yarders.

  161. spoiler says:

    v4ance:
    Bryan,

    Totally agree with you on Moon’s physical gifts.I remember in the first few seasons where he and Tom Wilkinson would platoon with Wilkinson being the pure pocket passer and Moon was the “running’ QB and they’d both throw long bombs to Brian Kelly or short clinical strikes to Marco Cyncar.With Lumsden in the backfield, and a solid D that team was nearly unstoppable.

    If I was comparing Moon physically to an NFL QB, it’d be closer to a young Donovan MacNabb.I chose Wilson as a comparable because he does well in pressure situations and finds ways to win the big games.

    IIRC it was Jim Germany at the beginning and Lumsden didn’t join till a couple years into the dynasty.

  162. spoiler says:

    Soup Fascist: Wow. I have not heard reference to “Disco Marco” in forever.Didn’t he end up teaching high school in Edmonton or something after his playing days?Dude had some Duguay-like locks.

    Well, one of his nicknames was “Billy Ray” Cyncar.

  163. cabbiesmacker says:

    oliveoilers:
    It’s a cool 14C in the Peace.Light rain, we need torrential as there’s a wildfire between here and Worsely.

    Yay Peace river. Smitty’s pub and the Village sound boys. Or old boys.

    Hope the fires stay well clear. I just spent a week in North Sask fishing and inhaling the equivalent of 6 packs a day while doing it.

  164. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    That makes sense.I still rue the Marincin trade, because even as the more complete fancystats picture doesn’t put him in as good a light as we often suggest, he’s only 80 games into his career.He will get (a lot) better, of this I have no doubt.

    Gryba has room to improve as well, but his age (27) and GP (160ish) put him much closer to his ultimate ceiling.

    Oh I still prefer Marincin because I think possession is key PLUS he was under control for longer and younger.

    If we run the opposite analysis (HD SC for side), maybe we can find more evidence pro Schultz in the offensive zone… I.e. He makes the most of his time there once he’s there.

  165. cabbiesmacker says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: McBain is the Arnold-like action movie star in the Simpsons (upon closer inspection, these are loafers).

    Janitor is “Groundskeeper” Willie MacDougal

    Oh right. Willie and Otto Man rule. Two magnificent actors

  166. Soup Fascist says:

    cabbiesmacker: Oh right. Willie and Otto Man rule. Two magnificent actors

    Yes. But they are no “Barney Rubble”. What range!

  167. Bryan says:

    spoiler: IIRC it was Jim Germany at the beginning and Lumsden didn’t join till a couple years into the dynasty.

    Jim Germany and Larry Washington appeared about the same time and were dynamite together for a short while but Washington suffered an injury early in his career and faded away. Germany was the most under rated piece of those dynasty years. There were flashier backs around but he was completely dependable year after year blocking and running for his annual thousand yards. Angelo Santucci was a solid fullback for a number of years and Lumsden was very good when he came along. It’s funny how the mind works but I can list almost every starting player from those Grey Cup teams but would have a hard time coming up with half a dozen from the current team.

  168. godot10 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Willis with an interesting suggestion on ON.

    Would you trade Nikitin and Ference for Phaneuf, no salary retained for anyone?

    I don’t think I would, already have lots of LHD that we have under control for the length of Phaneuf’s contract.

    Phaneuf might be the addition that makes us a playoff team for the next two seasons, especially if he doesn’t get the hardest minutes, which makes the most of McDavid’s ELC, but would be an absolute anchor after that.

    I was interested before Sekera, when I thought the Oilers had no chance at Sekera, and before the Oilers bulked up the D with Reinhart and Gryba. Not so much now. That Sekera contract is 6 years. The cap can’t take another long contract.

  169. spoiler says:

    Bryan: Jim Germany and Larry Washington appeared about the same time and were dynamite together for a short while but Washington suffered an injury early in his career and faded away.Germany was the most under rated piece of those dynasty years.There were flashier backs around but he was completely dependable year after year blocking and running for his annual thousand yards. Angelo Santucci was a solid fullback for a number of years and Lumsden was very good when he came along.It’s funny how the mind works but I can list almost every starting player from those Grey Cup teams but would have a hard time coming up with half a dozen from the current team.

    Yeah, me too. In fact, when I think about it, I don’t think Brian Kelly was there for at least the first year. Want to say it was McGowan for the 78 Cup.

  170. Bryan says:

    Soup Fascist: Wow. I have not heard reference to “Disco Marco” in forever.Didn’t he end up teaching high school in Edmonton or something after his playing days?Dude had some Duguay-like locks.

    Edit:I don’t remember many bombs from Wilkie. Certainly not as many as underhanded shovel passes of 3 yards that Germany would turn into net 25 yarders.

    I loved watching Wilkie play. He was such a crafty and inventive quarterback and such a great interview. My favourite play of his that I remember is him rolling right, which was a sight see in itself, and he had the whole team sliding to the right with him. Suddenly he stopped and threw back against the grain to the left side of the field and somehow Waddell Smith magically appeared there wide open and sauntered into the end zone. A play like that probably wouldn’t work now but it looked damn good then.

  171. v4ance says:

    Bryan,

    Some of my memory is fuzzy because I was in Edmonton for only 5 months before I moved to LT’s neck of the woods in Saskatchewan and adopted the sad sad sack Roughriders as my team. I watched Moon et al destroy my poor green guys over and over. Tommy Scott is another name that springs to mind now … before he got traded to Calgary to limp out his final year or two in the CFL.

    More names…Dan Kepley, Don Cutler. Hank Illesic with the huge booming leg. I remember one of the first books I read on football was by the Esks and it went over football basics like how to punt, how to carry the ball in the crook of your arm, etc.

  172. spoiler says:

    Bryan,

    Hamilton tried that on Calgary last week. Was set up to go to Fantuz. Went IC, which is a good thing. They’re either TDs or pick-6s.

  173. Doug McLachlan says:

    RexLibris:
    G Money,

    I’m VERY tempted to copy this into a FN comment section just to see that site blow up with rage.

    I won’t.

    Maybe.

    As for the Flames, I think the moves they’ve made will pay off in so far as the timing will work against their division with the Canucks and Sharks either taking a step back or standing still while the Kings sort out their mess. The Oilers are still coming from a long way’s back and the Coyotes are road kill.

    However, if the division undergoes a transition and the Ducks, Kings, Oilers and Canucks can get themselves sorted out in short order then the Flames will have accomplished more or less what I had hoped for: a quick return to mediocrity.

    They have some C depth, but just enough and not altogether NHL ready just yet.

    They have some good D depth, but one will come on while another is in the proverbial back-9 of his career.

    They have some G depth but for this season only. After that things will need to change and the answer (Gilles) is still NHL-unproven.

    So is their rebuild over, as Cameron had boasted early last season?

    I’d say they’ve finished actively rebuilding, but I wouldn’t say the job is entirely complete.

    Far from it for me to speak for my buddy, Cameron, but let me make the argument (it is what I’m paid to do).

    The premise that Calgary will regress is made, primarily, on PDO returning to the mean. Early in the year the PDO was boosted by ungodly goaltending and when that started to sputter the Flames has an insane shooting %.

    The Flames did have great goaltending last year but even if it was only end-of-year levels that will be enough to hold the fort on that end.

    Hamilton was targeted by almost everyone here as the OS target for a reason – he’s really good and was carrying Boston’s D, including Chara. That assessment doesn’t change because he’s wearing red. Giordano was hurt just before the deadline and they maintained their performance on the back end even with the injury.

    To suggest that adding Hamilton and a full year of Giordano does not improve Calgary’s D is simply willful blindness

    Up front the idea that Calgary’s shooting % for the likes of Monahan and Johnny Hockey is unsustainable is predicated on the notion that it is, in fact, elevated. They may actually be that good and they won’t get a McDavid added to the team but there was a reason LT wanted Bennett as his choice over Leon Draisaitl at last year’s draft.

    Dismiss the Flames at your peril.

    Personally I think Corsi is going to bite them on the proverbial. They will not be catching teams unprepared and unawares this year. Hudler’s career season will not be repeated and I if Gaudreau has any sort of slump then Bennett may not enjoy the same sort of wind-assist he was hoping to for his first year.

    When does the puck drop again?

  174. Frank the dog says:

    cabbiesmacker: Hear, hear. Hard to believe some are so thin skinned and quite frankly, to me it’s just so Calgary Puck, where bannings for saying anything remotely anti-Flame are handed out on a whimsy.

    That said I don’t believe DSF was banned. Unless LT had a sidebar chat with him it looked like he left of his own accord. Too bad imo. It’d be a shame if everyone in this world had the same opinion but alas, we are a society that has become so politically correct and weak kneed that it’s outright nauseating.

    Especially hilarious is that one of his biggest detractors on this very blog was an individual banned from pretty much every hockey site on the internet not so long ago. Now That was an asshole.

    Not sure who you are referring to (seriously) but although I know I can be an ass, and regret the personal onsult/s in my comment I have never been banned from any blog.

  175. Bryan says:

    spoiler: Yeah, me too. In fact, when I think about it, I don’t think Brian Kelly was there for at least the first year. Want to say it was McGowan for the 78 Cup.

    You’re right that George hung on for the 1978 Grey Cup. He was my first big hero in sports. I absolutely idolized him and ran a thousand pass patterns as George McGowan. Like a lot of other great ones his knees just couldn’t take the pounding. Brian Kelly arrived in 1979 I believe.

  176. spoiler says:

    v4ance:
    Bryan,

    Some of my memory is fuzzy because I was in Edmonton for only 5 months before I moved to LT’s neck of the woods in Saskatchewan and adopted the sad sad sack Roughriders as my team.I watched Moon et al destroy my poor green guys over and over.Tommy Scott is another name that springs to mind now … before he got traded to Calgary to limp out his final year or two in the CFL.

    More names…Dan Kepley, Don Cutler.Hank Illesic with the huge booming leg.I remember one of the first books I read on football was by the Esks and it went over football basics like how to punt, how to carry the ball in the crook of your arm, etc.

    Tom Scott came from the Ralph Brock Bombers; no idea why they traded him to Edmonton… budget maybe? If they had kept Scott with Poplawski they would have been more of a force.

  177. godot10 says:

    Bling:
    There’s a fantastic article over at coppernblue on delta Corsi and assessing the Oilers D.

    Confirms what a lot of people have been saying, and that is that losing Petry and Marincin is going to sting, a lot.

    If I’m reading things correctly, the addition of Sekera does not offset those departures.

    Chia needs to add one more and get rid of Ference, otherwise we’re looking at another year of tire fires.

    There are so many changed variables. 50% or more of the actual defense has been changed. A new proven coach and coaching staff. McDavid and two new bottom six forwards with a track record.
    Hall being healthy and the young forwards being a year more experienced.

    Some humility about the future is in order. Next season is somewhat of a great unknown.

  178. Bryan says:

    v4ance:
    Bryan,

    Some of my memory is fuzzy because I was in Edmonton for only 5 months before I moved to LT’s neck of the woods in Saskatchewan and adopted the sad sad sack Roughriders as my team.I watched Moon et al destroy my poor green guys over and over.Tommy Scott is another name that springs to mind now … before he got traded to Calgary to limp out his final year or two in the CFL.

    More names…Dan Kepley, Don Cutler.Hank Illesic with the huge booming leg.I remember one of the first books I read on football was by the Esks and it went over football basics like how to punt, how to carry the ball in the crook of your arm, etc.

    At the peak of the dynasty the Esks had Brian Kelly and Waddell Smith on the outside with Tommy Scott in the slot along with Brian Fryer or Marco Cyncar. Stu Lang and Don Warrington were also good canadian receivers. Warren Moon was great at throwing the ball to Scott at about six inches off the turf and he would just slide in to catch it. I don’t think I ever really saw him get hit.

  179. Bryan says:

    spoiler: Tom Scott came from the Ralph Brock Bombers; no idea why they traded him to Edmonton… budget maybe?If they had kept Scott with Poplawski they would have been more of a force.

    I think that Scott was basically traded for Poplawski…..definitely worked out for both teams.

  180. spoiler says:

    Bryan: Warren Moon was great at throwing the ball to Scott at about six inches off the turf and he would just slide in to catch it. I don’t think I ever really saw him get hit.

    That’s exactly the way I remember Scott.

    And Howdy Doody was so good at running patterns to the T, I’m pretty sure they’d create a play, put chalk on his shoes and then however he ran it was how they drew it in the playbook.

    He didn’t have Waddell’s speed or vertical, but he was a smart smart player.

  181. Genjutsu says:

    Bag of Pucks: George Carlin has said everything that needs to be said about free speech and political correctness and has done so far more eloquently than I ever could. I invite you to watch the clips on YouTube if you’re truly interested in an alternative pov on this.

    Taste is a poor arbiter for societal norms because it’s a purely subjective metric. On a quantitative driven site such as this, ‘taste’ seems a poor guidepost.

    It’s not about free speech or being PC. Comparing someone to a homosexual as a negative is wrong. So is being racist. If you do these things you need to stop.

    Period.

  182. Bank Shot says:

    That makes sense.I still rue the Marincin trade, because even as the more complete fancystats picture doesn’t put him in as good a light as we often suggest, he’s only 80 games into his career.He will get (a lot) better, of this I have no doubt.

    Marinicin might get better. However there are a lot of 20ish NHLers/career AHLers that really never get that much better throughout their careers.

    As a guy that reportedly came to camp out of shape, I’d say the odds of him reaching his full potential aren’t that high.

  183. cabbiesmacker says:

    Frank the dog: Not sure who you are referring to (seriously) but although I know I can be an ass, and regret the personal onsult/s in my comment I have never been banned from any blog.

    Wasn’t referring to you in any way bud. As you were.

  184. Amadeus says:

    Does anyone know where to find accurate numbers for height and weight?

    Example – Ben Betker –

    Edmonton Oilers site – 6’5, 205 lbs
    Eliteprospects – 6’6, 216lbs
    Hockeydb – 6’6, 220 lbs

    On Bruce McCurdy’s twitter, he had Levielle at 5’9!, 228lbs (From Oilers sheet).
    Everywhere else I have seen, lists him at 6’0, 220lbs.

    Can’t believe there would be such a big difference.

  185. Pouzar says:

    spoiler:
    Surely I’m not the only person who remembers Super Slider Snow Skates?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48ysOQZY6iw

    Man, if you were taken to the top of a big hill and your parents strapped these puppies on you, let’s just say you were probably not the favorite child.

    And yes, TV really did look like that back then. Once we got colour.

    I went down a rather steep hill on these suckers 2 years ago…on a dare…I was 40.

    Weren’t we talking about maturity last thread??????

  186. RexLibris says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Not dismissing them at all.

    Rather, I think that adding Frolik, Bennett and Hamilton will help the team adjust when they face a regression from last season’s numbers.

    Kent Wilson acknowledged that they needed to shore up the possession metrics if they had a chance of avoiding a downturn and they have added significant pieces that should aid in that.

    However, what remains to be seen is:

    A. Do the additions even out the potential regression
    B. How far into the season will the numbers (sh% and sv%) begin to find their level
    C. What effect, if any, might injury or opposition coaching changes have on last season’s performance

  187. RexLibris says:

    Amadeus: On Bruce McCurdy’s twitter, he had Levielle at 5’9!, 228lbs

    That’s gotta be something to see.

    Might as well ditch the weight category and give him dimensions like a cube: 5’x5’x3′

    Imagine that little ball of hate hitting you in the corners. Ouch.

  188. Halfwise says:

    RexLibris: That’s gotta be something to see.

    Might as well ditch the weight category and give him dimensions like a cube: 5’x5’x3′

    Imagine that little ball of hate hitting you in the corners. Ouch.

    He might be off the end of the range on Ricki’s metric of lbs/inch of height, at 3.3.

  189. raventalon40 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Willis with an interesting suggestion on ON.

    Would you trade Nikitin and Ference for Phaneuf, no salary retained for anyone?

    I don’t think I would, already have lots of LHD that we have under control for the length of Phaneuf’s contract.

    Phaneuf might be the addition that makes us a playoff team for the next two seasons, especially if he doesn’t get the hardest minutes, which makes the most of McDavid’s ELC, but would be an absolute anchor after that.

    I’d be okay with that. Most teams find some way to get around the cap restrictions (like the ghosts of Chris Pronger and Marc Savard) so if it gets us success during the ELC years we can deal with the implications later.

    Chicago does it every year!

  190. raventalon40 says:

    Amadeus:
    Does anyone know where to find accurate numbers for height and weight?

    Example – Ben Betker –

    Edmonton Oilers site – 6’5, 205 lbs
    Eliteprospects – 6’6, 216lbs
    Hockeydb – 6’6, 220 lbs

    On Bruce McCurdy’s twitter, he had Levielle at 5’9!, 228lbs (From Oilers sheet).
    Everywhere else I have seen, lists him at 6’0, 220lbs.

    Can’t believe there would be such a big difference.

    Check out Loik Leveille as well

    Oilers list him 5,9″ 228 lbs
    Eliteprospects list him 6,0″ 220 lbs
    NHL.com and hockeydb 6,0″ 223 lbs
    QMJHL list him 6,0″ 220 lbs

  191. sliderule says:

    G Money
    That’s very good work and far more scientific than the basic stuff I did.

    I think your prediction is probably right but I have a gut feeling about this kid.

    I am going with my gut . 85 puts.

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