STRONG 210

One of the things we do as Oilers fans is make group decisions, adopt them as gospel and then write it in our memory banks. No real harm—we all do it, who can hold on to all info—but things get left behind that are important. Example: The 2015 draft. Edmonton got Connor McDavid AND Cam Talbot AND Griffin Reinhart AND five other picks besides! They won the draft!

Yes. Yes they did. However, along with winning the draft they also dealt away a bunch of quality talent that will be under control for seven to nine years. If we put the draft day trades in proper context, we get:

  • One year of Cam Talbot, six years of Griffin Reinhart and seven to nine years of Ziyat Paigin for
  • Seven to nine years of Mathew Barzal, Mitchell Stephens, Jonas Siegenhalter, Sergey Vborvskiy and Adam Huska

I’m not condemning the trades, quite like both players and the pick seems reasonable based on draft position. I’m saying that when you make trades like this, the cost to the franchise is two to ten years out and could be dear. Those picks were part of the Connor McDavid cluster, Cam Talbot may not be part of it. We need to recognize these things, acknowledge them. They’re important.

DRAFTING FROM LAST YEAR’S LIST

A year ago, I published my top 120 list and a bunch of players didn’t get drafted. Here’s the list, with my ranking from 2014 and (if they were selected) their draft number from 2015.

  • (43) L Dexter Dancs
  • (49) L Vladimir Tkachev
  • (52) C Andrew Mangiapane—CALGARY NO. 166 OVERALL
  • (62) L Kris Schmidli
  • (73) C Luke Philp
  • (78) D Gavin Bayreuther
  • (80) D Riley Stadel
  • (81) C Colby Cave—SIGNED BY THE BOSTON BRUINS.
  • (82) C Reid Gardner
  • (90)L Blake Clark
  • (98) D Sebastian Aho
  • (112) L Darby Llewellyn
  • (114) L Ryan Foss
  • (116) R Mitchel Slattery

Lots of talent passed through in year two, but Mangiapane was taken and I’d argue Calgary got exceptional value where they took him this year. Let’s have a look at the kids who were on this year’s list and didn’t get taken:

  • No. 48C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Wide range of skills, undersized.
  • No. 67L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Small W, extremely skilled.
  • No. 74— G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) 23GP, 2.78 .914
  • No. 75— C Tyler Soy, Victoria Royals (WHL) Lightning quick forward.
  • No. 84— C Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Small forward, terrific skill.
  • No. 86— D Sebastian Aho, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, puck mover.
  • No. 92— C Sebastian Ohlsson, Skelleftea (SHL). Small skill center showed well at U18’s.
  • No. 103— C Brett McKenzie, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Two-way C with skill.
  • No. 116— R Kay Schweri, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Fantastic playmaker.
  • No. 117— D Loik Leveille, Cape Breton (QMHL). I can’t keep him off the list. Ultimate boom/boom.
  • No. 118— C Brayden Burke, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Was very good in half a season.
  • No. 120— L Pius Suter, Guelph Storm (OHL). A small, older, highly skilled C, scored 72 points.

Once again, lots of talent fell through the draft and it’s good to see Edmonton picked up Soy and Leveille for the orientation camp. I would love to see the Oilers sign one or both and wonder what happens to Tkachev now.

THE OILERS BEST DRAFT PICKS, 2015

Although Edmonton did trade away a bunch of picks (A BUNCH!) they delivered some real value in later rounds based on my top 120 for 2015.

  • No. 1 overall—Connor McDavid (I had him ranked No. 1).
  • No. 124 overall—Ethan Bear (I had him ranked No. 38).
  • No. 154 overall—John Marino (I had him ranked No. 112).

I also like Caleb Jones but didn’t have him in my top 120.

BOTTOM LINE ON THE DRAFT

I wanted to get this down because it’s been on my mind and two years from now I’ll think I wrote it but won’t be able to find it. This could have been an astounding draft if the club had kept the picks and part of me really believes the right call was making those selections. That said, Edmonton hired Peter Chiarelli to improve the team immediately and have them in contention for the playoffs this time next summer. Not every bet he made is a winner, and a couple look a tad wobbly now, but the additions he gives Todd McLellan in the fall should mean a more competitive team for the Oilers in 2015-16.

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149 Responses to "STRONG 210"

  1. geowal says:

    Sebastian Aho went 35th overall to Carolina.

    Somehow I was able to remember that from scanning through this article at NHL numbers:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2015/7/3/pcs-winners-and-losers-at-the-2015-draft

    Edit: and by the metrics there was considered a slight reach but still potentially a high impact player.

  2. Younger Oil says:

    geowal:
    Sebastian Aho went 35th overall to Carolina.

    Somehow I was able to remember that from scanning through this article at NHL numbers:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2015/7/3/pcs-winners-and-losers-at-the-2015-draft

    There were two Sebastian Aho’s! One a Swede, one a Finn IIRC.

  3. Hammers says:

    Only problem with taking those picks is you keep pushing it out there . He gambled a bit but if we get back in playoffs on entering the new building he did his job . Problem is this is Not even close to a cup winning team .

  4. spoiler says:

    LT…And 5 years (?) of Todd McLellan.

  5. Moose says:

    “Not every bet he made is a winner, and a couple look a tad wobbly now, but the additions he gives Todd McLellan in the fall should mean a more competitive team for the Oilers in 2015-16.”

    I just want to make it out of November without thinking the season is over. All the changes and McDavid aside, if this team throws up another October / November like the last two, it’s going to be really hard for me to stay engaged. The mind of a hockey fan is not meant to digest draft lists and prospect profiles before Christmas…for 10 straight years.

  6. geowal says:

    Younger Oil: There were two Sebastian Aho’s! One a Swede, one a Finn IIRC.

    You’re right, eventually figured that out. Exact same spelling, born 1.5 years apart. DIdn’t expect that.

  7. Alsker says:

    A few years from now we may look back at these deals and curse Chia. Unfortunately we probably will have forgotten that they were done as part of the cure for the MacKlowne management f*ckups. 1 major hurdle left from their ineptness…Ference/NN/Schultz = 14% of the cap!!!! I cannot believe those contracts and have no idea at this point how PC gets us out of them this season.

  8. Younger Oil says:

    Yeah, I’m still not overly thrilled on trading away so many picks (particularly the Reinhart deal), but showing the fans, management, and players that we want to get better NOW is definitely worth something.

    Might not have gotten Sekera and Letestu otherwise, who knows.

  9. cabbiesmacker says:

    Younger Oil: There were two Sebastian Aho’s! One a Swede, one a Finn IIRC.

    Hope one of them makes the league so I can see a scoring attempt by A ho

    Also answers the question whether A ho can be drafted.

  10. Hammers says:

    Hall and Eberle maybe Hopkins will be gone before we see the cup in Edmonton again . The team wasted 4-5 years. I do think McDavid , Nurse and Leon have a shot especially if management gets the right pieces whenever they get around to trading really good players for really good players . I say 5 years away and if the smart decisions are made maybe 3-4 from contending .

  11. Woodguy says:

    I’m not condemning the trades, quite like both players and the pick seems reasonable based on draft position. I’m saying that when you make trades like this, the cost to the franchise is two to ten years out and could be dear. Those picks were part of the Connor McDavid cluster, Cam Talbot may not be part of it. We need to recognize these things, acknowledge them. They’re important

    The flip side of that is at the end of McDavid’s ELC we’re lamenting the loss of his cheap years for the want of cheap Dmen and a goalie.

    We’ll see.

  12. Rondo says:

    If they kept the picks I believe Oilers would have traded up for Jeremy Roy on the second day.

  13. wheatnoil says:

    So let’s say Ethan Bear makes it as a top 6 D-man about 5 years from now. A #1 pick plus one other player is pretty much on par with many of the Oilers drafts in the last 10 years.

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Leveille was down at 5’9 228 on the program at rexall. 6 inches shorter than Nurse, but 15 lbs heavier. Built like a bowling ball.

    McDavid is just something you have to see for yourself live. I’m not sure if it’s LT or someone else that has liked to describe when the crowd falls silent in interest when Hall crosses the blue line with the puck. McDavid keeps everyone silent and on the edge of their seats from his own hash marks. I am so excited for him, and so happy that he will be an oiler. Music!!!

  15. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    This is 90% availability bias, pure and simple.

    Had Chia not rolled the cluster forward, every free agent on the cusp of his “golden years” who considers signing here first looks at the thinnish roster on the bench and then fat bulge in the procurement pipeline (Real Soon Now), gives his chin hairs an extra stroke, and then demands an extra year of term, and a/an NMC with twenty-five team exclusions on the backside, instead of just fifteen.

    All these nickels and dimes in the here and now ultimately add up to real roster spots.

    How quickly we forget this five years from now when we open our wallets to the glamorous “might have been” photo section (filed alongside every sweet young hottie who ever gave you an ambiguous sideways wink), while paying no heed to the overflowing coin jar on the bedside table (engorged with coppers and twos).

    Defense Against Availability Bias is your regulation-issue invisible, superhero protective underpants.

    Don’t leave home without them.

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Hammers: Hall and Eberle maybe Hopkins will be gone before we see the cup in Edmonton again .

    Says you.

    Hammers: I do think McDavid , Nurse and Leon have a shot especially if management gets the right pieces whenever they get around to trading really good players for really good players .

    Oh. That limp argument again.

    Hammers: I say 5 years away and if the smart decisions are made maybe 3-4 from contending .

    Since according to you: Hall, Eberle, RNH and I presume Yakupov gets traded asap… Got any idea who this Imaginary Cup team you’re building is going to use for wingers?

    Ah. The Penguin Model!

  17. oliveoilers says:

    LT, if we were only three years out of the play-offs, then definitely agree with you 100%.

    That said, nine years out, and any grace has been set on fire, pissed on to put it out, ground up in a tree de-barker, mixed with dead skunk scent glands and put on a trebuchet and fire at Calgary.

    Chia has the task of immediately improving the team whilst keeping on eye on the future, because outside of the #1s (and one of those is struggling) and Ebs, Klef and Nurse, everything has been pissed up the wall.

    Is this a better roster than last year? Yes. Could we have used those picks? Yes.

    Maybe Chia agrees with you, but the situation has forced his hand. The 2014 closing night roster could not be simply allowed to co-exist with McDavid. Indeed, neither could the management.

    Ideal situation? We made those picks and had the LUXURY of watching them develop into great NHLers.

    But we all know that isn’t the reality. The reality is that Chia should have the ‘Balance’ pick – trying to balance nine years of failure in team performance and development with trying to ice a competitive team next season.

    I did say that when he first took over Boston, with the exception of Chara, he made a lot of stop-gap moves that improved the team, but not one of those players was around to hoist Stanley. Watch for more of the same.

  18. Lowetide says:

    OliveOilers: I’m not saying it’s a mistake, I’m saying it’s a risk. I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

  19. Bank Shot says:

    If Talbot gives the Oilers 4 years of water tight goaltending and Griffin plays the Jason Smith role for the better part of a decade I don’t think any Oiler fan will be lamenting giving up those picks.

    As long as those picks used improves the roster going forward, they were well spent.

    If in three years there is no young talent bubbling under the Mact should shoulder a share of that blame. That is the guy that threw away last season’s 2nds and 3rds and left the Oilers with nothing to show for it.

    Trading picks is a risk, but so is using them. Mact spent two years spinning his wheels and left Chiarelli minimal young assets to use outside of picks.

  20. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Woodguy have you put the salaries on a spreadsheet? I spitballed salaries (I’m in cells so don’t have access to a computer) and I can pay pretty well and come to about 76M with no ELC salaries.

    Surely the cap will go up in the next few years. They may have to lose someone but if they don’t pay anyone but McD stupidly they should be able to keep these guys mostly together if they want to.

  21. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide:
    OliveOilers: I’m not saying it’s a mistake, I’m saying it’s a risk. I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

    I hear you, but that golden ticket changed everything. We draft fourth? We still have MacT and we know he’s as good as his season end presser. Development year, we make the picks with maybe a minor trade of MM.

    It’s gonna be a hell of a ride! I’m in, because a) I’m a fan and b) morbid fascination.

  22. borisnikov says:

    You know what matters more to me than draft picks? The signal from Chiarelli that this org is done pissing around with the status quo.

    My emotional investment in this team was almost finished at the end of the season. I nearly stopped caring.

    With MacT’s post season “development year” presser, I really thought that may have broken my last straw.

    Then came the lottery win and joy bubbled up.

    Then came the MacT dismissal and I thought “That’s it! That’s the turn north”.

    But even after time started to pass on that move, I found doubt creeping in. “Is this it? Is THE lottery win and new GM really the beginning of the end? Can I let my guard down?” I wasn’t so sure.

    The moments that have finally started convincing me (with McDavid as a given) that the horror show is over is when they traded those picks on draft day. And then the Sekeras signing. And then they made some decent bets on established or promising bottom 6 forwards & 5-6 d men via free agency and trades. FINALLY.

    I understand the sentiment that those picks could have turned into something more, someday, but someday isn’t today. The signal was finally received and we are coming out of the ass end of one of the worst runs in the history of North American pro sports. Let’s not bemoan what could be. Let’s celebrate what is!

    I feel nothing but immense relief. This season likely isn’t playoffs, but they are set to start the turn around the corner. A new day has sprung and they haven’t lost fans like me. FWIW.

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

    Perfectly rational argument, until used vs a 9 year playoff drought combined with the realization for many that the past 15 years would have better never existed for the Edmonton Oilers.

    Chiarelli’s like MacT in many ways: He wears suits, glasses, wakes up in the morning…

  24. theres oil in virginia says:

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings/_/season/2016/week/0

    21st

    8th

    I don’t put much stock in these, but you should have a look.

  25. Woogie63 says:

    For all the talk of change of Management

    Lowe, MacT, Howson, Scott, Carriere, Green,,Buchberger, Schwartz, Rodrigue, Fee, Serdachny, and Pelletier look very familar???

    It seem weird that titles like, “Senior” and VP have been given the true past decision maker.

  26. jm363561 says:

    “Edmonton hired Peter Chiarelli to improve the team immediately and have them in contention for the playoffs this time next summer.”

    This is now the third or fourth time I have read this in the last few days. Is this a fact or some speculation that is fast becoming accepted wisdom?

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    This draft got the Oilers a budding Legend, an emerging top 4D, an emerging top #1 Goaltender, a top quality Manager and his Staff, a quality stay at home bottom 4D and possibly the next Chara. The cost: #16. #33, #57, #79, #86, #184, Travis Ewanyk and Martin Maricin.

    In addition, the Oilers got a young defenseman whom his brother thinks he can be as good as he is, the next Darnell Nurse, the next Oscar Klefbom and something you never have enough of, a young developing Goalie. Chiarelli took 4 Defenseman with his last 5 Picks, that must cast doubts on how good he thinks the minor level defense. I think he hit a Home Run here.

    It all about what you expected to happen in the Draft. If you were even a bit disappointed, you might at least have tiny doubts about how good a Draft it was. Myself, I thought it was great. The Team was remade with next to nothing lost, picking up young high-upside assets for much less than they are worth. That was a great weekend.

  28. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide:
    OliveOilers: I’m not saying it’s a mistake, I’m saying it’s a risk. I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

    Any objective info that the draft was all that different than taking most draft years and bumping every player down to 2 or 3 spots? In orher words was from 2nd round down really all that different? Saw some subjective comments to that effect.

  29. G Money says:

    Yes. Yes they did. However, along with winning the draft they also dealt away a bunch of quality talent that will be under control for seven to nine years.

    It’s true.

    It’s also true that as Oiler fans, we’ve been so used to waiting for the upturn (and being disappointed) that we have to focus on the draft as the highlight of our season.

    And that means we tend to WAY overestimate the value of draft picks.

    Yes, we dealt away a bunch of quality talent that will be under control for seven to nine years.

    But 50% or more of that quality talent will never play in the NHL, and likely 70% of it will never make an impact at the NHL level.

    Would I trade that away for a reasonable shot at getting into the playoffs during McDavid’s ELC?

    Yes. In a heartbeat.

  30. Younger Oil says:

    Richard S.S.:

    In addition, the Oilers got a young defenseman whom his brother thing can be as good as he is, the next Darnell Nurse, the next Oscar Klefbom and something you never have enough of a young developing Goalie.

    This paragraph kind of took away from the rest of your argument, projecting multiple late round picks to become top 10 quality is very, very wrong.

  31. Магия 10 says:

    Woogie63:
    For all the talk of change of Management

    Lowe, MacT, Howson, Scott, Carriere, Green,,Buchberger, Schwartz, Rodrigue, Fee, Serdachny, andPelletier look very familar???

    It seem weird that titles like, “Senior” and VP have been given the true past decision maker.

    Lowe’s title puts him in charge of nothing. No c level role just board.

    MacT’s title nakes him Chia’s mini me without any specific role listed.

    Howson’s role puts him in charge of Bob Green

    No idea where the pro scouts report.

  32. Магия 10 says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings/_/season/2016/week/0

    21st

    8th

    I don’t put much stock in these, but you should have a look.

    19th. Hee haw.

  33. Woogie63 says:

    Магия 10: Lowe’s title puts him in charge of nothing.No c level role just board.

    MacT’s title nakes him Chia’s mini me without any specific roke listed.

    Howson’s role puts him in charge of Bob Green

    No idea where the pro scouts report.

    Lowe and MacT are going to be at the table when the brand is being discussed. These guys are going to be out of sight, and without a doubt they will be shaping decisions. Every smart president surrounds himself with smart people. For me this structure is a red flag.

  34. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide:
    OliveOilers: I’m not saying it’s a mistake, I’m saying it’s a risk. I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

    Surely a single year or 20% x 5 years could have been dedicated to helping all those top 7s turn north before the a few clusters cone up for their biggest contracts.

    The risk of not buying balance was far more serious. Look at this as a course correction. Turning north alone would raise all trade values enough to pick up a few extra picks a few years out

  35. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10: Surely a single year or 20% x 5 years could have been dedicated to helping all those top 7s turn north before the a few clusters cone up for their biggest contracts.

    The risk of not buying balance was far more serious. Look at this as a course correction. Turning north alone would raise all trade values enough topick up a few extra picks a few years out

    Well put. The next question then, and it’s a tough answer, is do you wait on the expiring contracts and make that next step to improvement next summer? Allowing Nikitin, Purcell to burn? I think that’s probably the right call but it’s galling because they’re so close.

  36. ashley says:

    Lowetide:
    OliveOilers: I’m not saying it’s a mistake, I’m saying it’s a risk. I like what Chiarelli did, including Reinhart and the Finn. My point is that this was a dangerous draft to trade away five picks in and those picks could impact the future in a big way.

    The biggest risk is Barzal. He has the potential to make the Oilers really blush 5-10 years out. Sadly, he does not play D and the Oilers went for need at 16. What if it was Provorov or Werenski falling to 16? It would have made for a difficult decision, though a trade for a dman closer to NHL ready is a good bet compared to these two who are going to be a few years out.

    In view of the roster imbalance, I like the bet. If Barzal blows the doors off the NHL, it won’t change my opinion about what Chia did today with information at hand, though it may make me wish he hadn’t.

  37. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: Well put. The next question then, and it’s a tough answer, is do you wait on the expiring contracts and make that next step to improvement next summer? Allowing Nikitin, Purcell to burn? I think that’s probably the right call but it’s galling because they’re so close.

    I agree this is the call. I think Chia actively tries to dump FSN, but if he can’t, then expiring contracts are plan B. Purcell can still make himself useful. NN? I dunno, man. I really couldn’t call how he’s going to be. Ference, now more than ever, needs to be the great team player he is and retire.

    I should look into the UFA market for next year. Things will become clearer by Xmas. If we’re out of the play-offs again by then, then keep them until they expire. If there’s the sniff of play-offs on the breeze, then it’s an interesting trade deadline.

    Huh. A plan B…..never had one of them before.

  38. Gordies Elbow says:

    borisnikov,

    Great post. The future isn’t tomorrow.

    It’s today.

  39. oliveoilers says:

    ashley: The biggest risk is Barzal. He has the potential to make the Oilers really blush 5-10 years out.

    McDavid prime years. Barzal would have to be absolutely killing it to make us blush. Not saying it’s impossible….

  40. Lowetide says:

    ashley: The biggest risk is Barzal.He has the potential to make the Oilers really blush 5-10 years out.Sadly, he does not play D and the Oilers went for need at 16.What if it was Provorov or Werenski falling to 16?It would have made for a difficult decision, though a trade for a dman closer to NHL ready is a good bet compared to these two who are going to be a few years out.

    In view of the roster imbalance, I like the bet.If Barzal blows the doors off the NHL, it won’t change my opinion about what Chia did today with information at hand, though it may make me wish he hadn’t.

    The Bruins picks were a major item in that first round, really impacted the way things rolled out. Looking back, McKenzie’s ’11’ went like this:

    BM Player Actual Selection Number

    1. McDavid (1)
    2. Eichel (2)
    3. Hanifin (5)
    4. Marner (4)
    5. Strome (3)
    6. Zacha (6)
    7. Crouse (11)
    8. Provorov (7)
    9. Barzal (16)
    10. Rantanen (10)
    11. Werenski (8)

  41. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: The next question then, and it’s a tough answer, is do you wait on the expiring contracts and make that next step to improvement next summer?

    I think the play here is to keep your powder dry for now. There is still a lot of business to do between now and puck drop. If a deal comes along that can bring in another D that can play top 4 minutes you consider it, but I don’t think Chia should force anything.

    If we have to start the season with what we have, fine. It’s not enough mind you.
    A turn north?? Sure.
    Marked improvement in all areas? I don’t think so.

    I see modest improvement overall, but it’s not enough to be seriously contending.

    Shed the contracts at the deadline and let the others expire, and swing for fences next summer(and that includes trading a F for a #1 D)

  42. oliveoilers says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    borisnikov,

    Great post. The future isn’t tomorrow.

    It’s today.

    The future’s bright. The future’s orange.

    (Ad for cellphone carrier in UK and Oiler’s prophecy.)

  43. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: Well put. The next question then, and it’s a tough answer, is do you wait on the expiring contracts and make that next step to improvement next summer? Allowing Nikitin, Purcell to burn? I think that’s probably the right call but it’s galling because they’re so close.

    Winning Stanley is a poker game that isn’t won without some calculated risks. Keeping your head and picking your ground is critical. My sense is that Chia moved hard over pro scouting ground that he knew well and bought himself time to know his player and scouting assets.

    I can see him opportunistically upgrading positions with some veteran short term ufas still. I’d guess he’s also lining up potential NSF trades with some retention with a preference to execute after 19 is definitely off or on contract.

    Waiting out Slats suggested he really is well connected to the player market in a way that oilers have not enjoyed in a long time. Other than serendipity I’d expect the next round of aggressive moves to surface after he sees what his players make of semester 1.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    ashley: Sadly, he does not play D and the Oilers went for need at 16.

    Dont care about position. Picks should be BPA. Trades on the other hand (even for prospects) can and should be for need.

  45. godot10 says:

    Chiarelli sold high (draft picks at the draft) and didn’t sell low (Yakupov, Schultz), for assets that will make and impact during McDavid’s entry level contract, and the remaining years of Hall’s and Eberle’s value deals.

    One is supposed to buy low and sell high, which is exactly what Chiarelli did.

    The OIlers can use money to sign college, european, and CHL free agents to fill caps in the 26th to 50th contracts.

    Trading time for what can be replaced with money.

  46. Doug McLachlan says:

    Chia adds three NHL players in Talbot, Reinhart and Gryba for five picks and Marincin. Is Marincin an NHL player on any team but the Oilers? Are those picks assured to be NHLers? They may be but even in a draft as good as this no guarantees.

    These are solid bets by Chia that did not, and I can’t stress this enough, he hasn’t scratched any parts of the core.

    I would be surprised, at this point, if any of the MSM “necessary” Yakupov or Draisaitl trades for a d-man happens before the deadline. He’s improved where he had to (goal and on the back-end) but he still needs to see what he has with his own eyes (and McLellan’s take) before he makes the hard calls.

    MacT would tell anyone who would listen he had only beeb the GM for so many months – well for Chiarelli, it’s true, he’s stopped the bleeding without having to do any major surgery just yet. An impressive couple of months on the job in my books.

  47. Soup Fascist says:

    In my tenure as a season ticket holder I have seen playoffs exactly one season. So I agree with the sentiment that the playoffs this year should be the goal. HOWEVER, that does not mean I agree to a short term fix that jeopardizes several future seasons. For example, a Dion Phaneuf may go a long way to getting into the playoffs. However the cap hit would be an anvil for years to come. I think there is a line to walk and I think current management understands the distinction.

    BTW. I have not seen any rookie camp but I like the Soy kid a lot. Watched him since Bantam. Not the biggest dog in the fight but there is a fire there. Hope he shows well.

    Edit. Just read McCurdy’s views and Soy gets a lukewarm “meh”. So much for my scouting career.

  48. MrEd says:

    godot10,

    Thanks Bruce. Really good read.
    Betker is being Betker. Nice.
    Chase is being Chase. So Nice.

    Leggs (Leggs) is my man. I’m wondering if we can’t trade this guy for Jultz straight up?

  49. raventalon40 says:

    Surprised that Ken Appleby didn’t get signed

  50. Richard S.S. says:

    Younger Oil: This paragraph kind of took away from the rest of your argument, projecting multiple late round picks to become top 10 quality is very, very wrong.

    IMO, I think the ones you are talking about have an excellent chance at having an NHL career with 5 years. Chiarelli’s spent more time on this draft knowing his margin for error the next few years is/or could be almost nonexistent.

  51. MrEd says:

    Also Bruce: Love the nod to us Edmontonians and our charitable spirit.
    A piece replete.

  52. Jaxon says:

    To make that truly equivalent, it should read what the percentage odds of making it as an NHL player is at each draft position. There are many “Barzals” from past drafts in that range that didn’t make it:

    “A 40% chance of having seven to nine years of Mathew Barzal, a 25% chance of having Mitchell Stephens, 10% of Jonas Siegenhalter, 5% Sergey Vborvskiy and 4% Adam Huska.”

    I don’t know the actual odds, but I know for picks from #13 – #30 it is around 40% that become 200gp NHLers. The rest are complete shots in the dark, but you get my drift.

  53. cabbiesmacker says:

    oliveoilers: The future’s bright.The future’s orange.

    Are they actually going to wear that fugly disaster of a uniform? Hello early LA Kings and Canucks. Putrid.

  54. Yak2 says:

    Oilers should pick up Blake Clarke. May turn out to be a Brandon Saad type.

  55. MrEd says:

    As for the cost for this years pick-ups?
    I’m on board.
    No doubt there will be some gnashing in retrospect but right now this team needs to turn North.
    Period.

  56. Doug McLachlan says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Ok, Phaneuf has come up a couple of times. Let me add a twist to the conversation. If TO is prepared to take Ference and Nikitin we have him under contract for 6 more years at $7M. Anchor contract except…

    There was serious consideration of Chara on this blog only two weeks ago. Sure we all agreed it wasn’t worth it but largely based on Chara’s physical decline. Phaneuf is a reasonable bet for one year or two.

    in a couple of seasons the NHL adds two teams (Vegas and Quebec is my bet). Is that not a contract you would expose? Expansion teams will need to get to the floor too and four more years of even a declining Phaneuf would be worth something to a team with Zero $ towards the floor.

    I am inclined to think it is bet worth making if the acquisition price is as low as is being suggested. I think they are looking for more than just Ference and Nikitin.

  57. frjohnk says:

    After the contracts of Nikitin, Purcell, Scrivens ( 11.3M) run out next year

    The 16-17 roster and salary looks like this

    Taylor Hall 6.0
    Jordan Eberle 6.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6.0
    Benoit Pouliot 4.0
    Nail Yakupov 2.5
    Lauri Korpikoski 2.5
    Matt Hendricks 1.8
    Mark Letestu 1.8
    Anton Lander 0.9
    Connor McDavid 3.7
    Leon Draisaitl 0.9

    That’s 36.1 M tied up with 11 forwards.

    Andrej Sekera 5.5
    Mark Fayne 3.6
    Andrew Ference 3.2
    Oscar Klefbom $$$???
    Griffin Reinhart 0.9
    Darnell Nurse 0.9

    4M for Klefbom? Would bring us to 18.1M for those 6 D. I know people are hoping that Ference is not on the roster THIS year, nevermind next year, but so far he is on the payroll. Schultz? Who knows? But for now he is not signed, so he is not on this list for now.

    No NHL goalies signed.

    So that is a total of 53.1M for 16 players.

    Needs are

    – a 3rd line RWer
    – a 4th line RWer
    – a top pairing D man
    – depth D man
    -a starting goalie
    -a backup goalie

    The 3rd and 4th liners should cost a total of 2M and 1M respectively.
    So the forward group brings us to 39M

    Top pairing D man 6M???
    Depth D man could be Davidson at 1M
    Blue line total cost is 25.1M

    Starting goalie Talbot? 4.5M
    backup goalie is maybe Broissant? 1M

    Goalie cost is 5.5M

    Overall salary cost is 69.6M

    The forward group brings exceptionable value.
    Maybe Korikowski is overpaid as a 3rd line Lwer at 2.5M, but I think he is gonna hit it out of the park, and if he doesn’t, the overpay is not much in term and money.

    The D group is a bigger question mark. Who would be that top pairing D man? Will Reinhart and Nurse begin to knock it out of the park by then? ( I think they both will)

    If in the 16-17 season
    -McDavid is as advertised ( no brainer)
    -Yak becomes an actual 2nd line winger ( should get there)
    -Lander becomes the best number 3 center in the game ( should get there)
    -Klefbom becomes even more dreamier ( its possible folks)
    -Nurse knocks it out of the park ( I think this is a no brainer, just a matter of time)
    -Draisaitl covers his draft number bet ( should get there)
    -Reinhart is a solid D man who covers most of his draft number bet ( should get there)
    -the goalies are average to better than average ( keep praying to the gords people)

    I think the 16-17 season is where this team not only makes a huge leap as a playoff contender but is an actual Stanley cup contender

  58. MrEd says:

    The FSN thing is galling to say the least.

    *crosses fingers and hopes for the very best*

  59. anonymous says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I think most teams will be thinking the same thing and Phaneufs contract could be especially ugly by then. I wonder if you’d be able to entice a team to take a player with a pick? If that would even be allowed?

  60. "Steve Smith" (formerly "Steve Smith") says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: (I’m in cells so don’t have access to a computer)

    Are you a police officer? Corrections official? Inmate?

    frjohnk: I think the 16-17 season is where this team not only makes a huge leap as a playoff contender but is an actual Stanley cup contender

    My concern – seriously – is that the Oilers are so bad in 2015-2016 that management does something rash to prevent the shiny new arena from being burnt down. In 2015-2016, barring further changes, Edmonton’s defence has still got to be one of the two or three worst in the NHL, right? I’m worried that, for this season, not only will the Oilers not challenge for the playoffs, but that may be twelfth or thirteenth in the conference again.

    I agree that we’re well situated for 2016-2017, assuming further efforts to improve the defensive corps between now and then. But I think things might be bad enough this season to disrupt staying the course.

    (I’m not faulting Chiarelli for the wretched state of the defence, particularly – there’s only so much that can be done in a single off-season – but it certainly remains in a wretched state.)

  61. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Soup Fascist,

    Ok, Phaneuf has come up a couple of times. Let me add a twist to the conversation. If TO is prepared to take Ference and Nikitin we have him under contract for 6 more years at $7M. Anchor contract except…

    There was serious consideration of Chara on this blog only two weeks ago. Sure we all agreed it wasn’t worth it but largely based on Chara’s physical decline. Phaneuf is a reasonable bet for one year or two.

    in a couple of seasons the NHL adds two teams (Vegas and Quebec is my bet). Is that not a contract you would expose? Expansion teams will need to get to the floor too and four more years of even a declining Phaneuf would be worth something to a team with Zero $ towards the floor.

    I am inclined to think it is bet worth making if the acquisition price is as low as is being suggested. I think they are looking for more than just Ference and Nikitin.

    Very cagey, me like.

  62. "Steve Smith" (formerly "Steve Smith") says:

    Richard S.S.: IMO, I think the ones you are talking about have an excellent chance at having an NHL career with 5 years. Chiarelli’s spent more time on this draft knowing his margin for error the next few years is/or could be almost nonexistent.

    So – and this is a serious question – it’s your position that the Oilers probably just had what is far and away the most successful rounds four through seven of any team in NHL entry draft history?

  63. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    "Steve Smith" (formerly "Steve Smith"): Are you a police officer?Corrections official?Inmate?

    My concern – seriously – is that the Oilers are so bad in 2016-2017 that management does something rash to prevent the shiny new arena from being burnt down.In 2015-2016, barring further changes, Edmonton’s defence has still got to be one of the two or three worst in the NHL, right?I’m worried that, for this season, not only will the Oilers not challenge for the playoffs, but that may be twelfth or thirteenth in the conference again.

    I agree that we’re well situated for 2016-2017, assuming further efforts to improve the defensive corps between now and then.But I think things might be bad enough this season to disrupt staying the course.

    (I’m not faulting Chiarelli for the wretched state of the defence, particularly – there’s only so much that can be done in a single off-season – but it certainly remains in a wretched state.)

    Crowbar hotel – which one are you in 🙂

    I think we are at a point where failure won’t be met with surprise and over reaction, but appropriate reaction that is hopefully correct.

  64. "Steve Smith" (formerly "Steve Smith") says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: Crowbar hotel – which one are you in

    I ask because I’m a criminal defence lawyer, and if you’re in the Edmonton area in law enforcement there’s a decent chance our paths will cross at some point, if they haven’t already.

    (I’m aware of at least one courthouse sheriff who posts here from time to time, and several other lawyers who lurk. I’m never sure if the realization that I’m that Steve Smith will result in a handshake or a punch to the nose.)

  65. Woodguy says:

    Rip Fan Winkle:
    Woodguy have you put the salaries on a spreadsheet? I spitballed salaries (I’m in cells so don’t have access to a computer) and I can pay pretty well and come to about 76M with no ELC salaries.

    Surely the cap will go up in the next few years. They may have to lose someone but if they don’t pay anyone but McD stupidly they should be able to keep these guys mostly together if they want to.

    waronice.com has all the salary info

  66. spoiler says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Soup Fascist,

    Ok, Phaneuf has come up a couple of times. Let me add a twist to the conversation. If TO is prepared to take Ference and Nikitin we have him under contract for 6 more years at $7M. Anchor contract except…

    There was serious consideration of Chara on this blog only two weeks ago. Sure we all agreed it wasn’t worth it but largely based on Chara’s physical decline. Phaneuf is a reasonable bet for one year or two.

    in a couple of seasons the NHL adds two teams (Vegas and Quebec is my bet). Is that not a contract you would expose? Expansion teams will need to get to the floor too and four more years of even a declining Phaneuf would be worth something to a team with Zero $ towards the floor.

    I am inclined to think it is bet worth making if the acquisition price is as low as is being suggested. I think they are looking for more than just Ference and Nikitin.

    There’s still a fair amount of uncertainty to the expansion process… what if it takes them 5 years?

  67. wheatnoil says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly “Steve Smith”): I ask because I’m a criminal defence lawyer, and if you’re in the Edmonton area in law enforcement there’s a decent chance our paths will cross at some point, if they haven’t already.

    (I’m aware of at least one courthouse sheriff who posts here from time to time, and several other lawyers who lurk.I’m never sure if the realization that I’m that Steve Smith will result in a handshake or a punch to the nose.)

    I see why you don’t go by your real name.

  68. Oil2Oilers (also formerly Steve Smith) says:

    An important item to remember in this discussion is the Oilers still have all there picks for next year, except the extra Horcoff 7th rounder the spent this year on a Russian Giant. They will likely to be able to add 2nd or 3d round picks at the deadline for Nitikin and Purcell.

    Getting the best player in a Generational draft is a win. Moving up the development time line for an almost there defender was a smart move, even with the high cost.

    If they are not traded for other assets the Oilers could have 5 picks in the top 100 of the 2016 draft. With the current, much improved, management making smart bets 2 reasonable NHL players could come out of that. Restocking the player pipeline.

    Future draft pic status site; http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2016.htm

  69. Bank Shot says:

    godot10:
    Chiarelli sold high (draft picks at the draft) and didn’t sell low (Yakupov, Schultz), for assets that will make and impact during McDavid’s entry level contract, and the remaining years of Hall’s and Eberle’s value deals.

    One is supposed to buy low and sell high, which is exactly what Chiarelli did.

    The OIlers can use money to sign college, european, and CHL free agents to fill caps in the 26th to 50th contracts.

    Trading time for what can be replaced with money.

    Hall’s contract can’t be stressed enough. Once that expires the OIlers aren’t going to have enough enough money to pay McDavid, RNH,Eberle, Hall, Yak, Darisaitl.

    At least one and probably two of these guys are going for sure at that point.

    Will Barzal be killing it 5 years after the draft? Do the Oilers have time to wait an extra season to wait for more internal development? I think they don’t. They really ideally need to make a push while McDavid is still on his entry level contrtact.

    The Oilers will never have a better configuration of ability on cheaper cap hits than year 3 of the McDavid entry level contract. Once they pay McDavid, its time to pay Eberle the year after, and the hits keep coming after that.

    The Oilers need to ascend rapidly there is no question.

    Besides, in all likelihood the Oilers are going to still get another top 10 pick next season. We”ll all be shocked if their first is higher than 15th overall.

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    frjohnk:
    After the contracts of Nikitin, Purcell, Scrivens ( 11.3M) run out next year

    The 16-17 roster and salary looks like this

    Taylor Hall6.0
    Jordan Eberle6.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins6.0
    Benoit Pouliot4.0
    Nail Yakupov2.5
    Lauri Korpikoski2.5
    Matt Hendricks1.8
    Mark Letestu1.8
    Anton Lander0.9
    Connor McDavid3.7
    Leon Draisaitl 0.9

    That’s 36.1 M tied up with 11 forwards.

    Andrej Sekera5.5
    Mark Fayne3.6
    Andrew Ference3.2
    Oscar Klefbom $$$???
    Griffin Reinhart0.9
    Darnell Nurse0.9

    4M for Klefbom?Would bring us to 18.1M for those 6 D.I know people are hoping that Ference is not on the roster THIS year, nevermind next year, but so far he is on the payroll. Schultz?Who knows? But for now he is not signed, so he is not on this list for now.

    No NHL goalies signed.

    So that is a total of 53.1M for 16 players.

    Needs are

    – a 3rd line RWer
    – a 4th line RWer
    – a top pairing D man
    – depth D man
    -a starting goalie
    -a backup goalie

    The 3rd and 4th liners should cost a total of 2M and 1M respectively.
    So the forward group brings us to 39M

    Top pairing D man 6M???
    Depth D man could be Davidson at 1M
    Blue line total cost is 25.1M

    Starting goalie Talbot? 4.5M
    backup goalie is maybe Broissant? 1M

    Goalie cost is 5.5M

    Overall salary cost is 69.6M

    The forward group brings exceptionable value.
    Maybe Korikowski is overpaid as a 3rd line Lwer at 2.5M, but I think he is gonna hit it out of the park, and if he doesn’t, the overpay is not much in term and money.

    The D group is a bigger question mark.Who would be that top pairing D man?Will Reinhart and Nurse begin to knock it out of the park by then? ( I think they both will)

    If in the 16-17 season
    -McDavid is as advertised ( no brainer)
    -Yak becomes an actual 2nd line winger ( should get there)
    -Lander becomes the best number 3 center in the game ( should get there)
    -Klefbom becomes even more dreamier ( its possible folks)
    -Nurse knocks it out of the park ( I think this is a no brainer, just a matter of time)
    -Draisaitl covers his draft number bet ( should get there)
    -Reinhart is a solid D man who covers most of his draft number bet ( should get there)
    -the goalies are average to better than average ( keep praying to the gords people)

    I think the 16-17 season is where this team not only makes a huge leap as a playoff contender but is an actual Stanley cup contender

    that is one refreshing change of pace. McDavid changed everything, I don’t know what our thought process right now would be if Hanifin had just signed his ELC.

    I really hope Talbot proves he’s worth 4.5-5M this year. Hope Scrivens makes himself re-signable too.

    I like the low risk bet in Korpikoski too. A lot of smart Finnish/euro guys seem to think he needed to get out of Arizona to have success. I’m rooting for him.

  71. theres oil in virginia says:

    Магия 10: 19th. Hee haw.

    Give Sweeney time. He’ll have them down to 27th by summer’s end.

  72. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    I think you’re a touch optimistic on Lander and Yakupov. Also, I think 16/17 might be a touch optimistic for Nurse and Reinhart to impact, though I think it’s reasonable to expect them to skate a regular shift at that point.

    Other than that, I do think 16/17 has a fair bit of potential.

  73. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly “Steve Smith”): I ask because I’m a criminal defence lawyer, and if you’re in the Edmonton area in law enforcement there’s a decent chance our paths will cross at some point, if they haven’t already.

    (I’m aware of at least one courthouse sheriff who posts here from time to time, and several other lawyers who lurk.I’m never sure if the realization that I’m that Steve Smith will result in a handshake or a punch to the nose.)

    I’m sorry SS I was being a smart ass because typically only DSF responds to me and occasionally LT or maybe WG, so I was just seeing if anyone would pick up on that as a lark. But since we’re on the topic can I hit you up if I’m ever in need 🙂

    I re-watched the tweet of McD in his lateral movement drills and I feel as giddy as a teenage girl at a Beatles concert. That kid is otherwordly, we are so lucky as Oiler fans.

  74. dangilitis says:

    LT I see what you are saying in a lot of ways

    For me this was the year to trade multiple picks to get higher quality in first 3 rds. I don’t understand why they gave up the 3rd rd this year to sj but maybe they wanted to spread out the 2 lost picks.

    The 2 players you are really lamenting having lost would have likely been forwards drafted in the top 31. We got great forwards and they should be ready now to help McDavid as well as 3 years from now. Getting more developed d men to fall in line with this timeline was key and reinhart is not old enough and that is the bigger issue I guess. Edmonton has no capable d man between the ages of 21-28 on their big club. Development of Simpson or Schultz or Laleggia would help bridge this gap but the oilers needed some prime d men in the 22-26 year cluster to peak when McDavid is ready and the stellar forwards are still all present, and gryba, sekera and reinhart don’t fill this need.

  75. Doug McLachlan says:

    Rip Fan Winkle,

    Thanks. Until tonight I hadn’t considered the impact of an expansion draft but that will be a fact of McDavid’s ELC years – likely year 2 in 2017-2018.

    Last time the league expanded, with the Wild and Blue Jackets, in 2000 the 26 teams involved (Nashville and Atlanta were only a year old and given a pass) could only protect either 1 G, 5 D and 9 F or 2G, 3D and 5F. There were experience requirements for those players left exposed but if past experience is any indication, Dion Phaneuf would be one of the more impressive and desirable d-men left exposed.

    I am increasingly thinking this is a gamble worth taking.

    Hmmm. Must consider this some more.

    Using the 2000 expansion rules I suspect the Oilers protect off the current roster:
    1 G – Talbot, assuming his play to Dec warrants an extension

    5 D – Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Chia’s Mystery addition

    9 F – McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl, Yakupov, Lander, Slepashev, Yakimov

    Interesting exercise. In my “free time” I should project the other teams out.

  76. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Woodguy: waronice.com has all the salary info

    I don’t see a cap crunch as a foregone conclusion although it will be tight, I’m wondering your take, maybe I’m missing something. Or any of you with an accounting interest.

    I think it’s completely possible to keep the majority of the core together if role players aren’t overpaid and only Flash has a gaudy contract, which I’m thinking he won’t even want for the sake of winning.

  77. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: But since we’re on the topic can I hit you up if I’m ever in need

    Of course – I don’t see why privilege wouldn’t attach to communications in Lowetide’s comments section.

  78. spoiler says:

    The Reinhart trade has shown that the cluster can be adjusted. There are more picks next year and more the year after that. And as someone above pointed out, it’s easy to flesh things out with college FAs etc.

    So I don’t think the cluster can be a consideration.

    I think the only real downside is that Talbot and/or Reinhart don’t work out.

    I’m not so much concerned about whether Barzal and his buddy do well. First, there is only a chance today that they do, and that doesn’t change today’s game state if they do. They weren’t more certain because they beat the odds. And, out of the years of control on those prospects, some of those years will be in the minors not doing damage to us. Thirdly, we traded all of the picks out of conference. And finally, really the only important consideration is… did trading the picks bring us what was needed? That story remains to be seen, but if it works out, the success of the picks is kind of irrelevant.

  79. Ray says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Rip Fan Winkle,

    Thanks. Until tonight I hadn’t considered the impact of an expansion draft but that will be a fact of McDavid’s ELC years – likely year 2 in 2017-2018.

    Last time the league expanded, with the Wild and Blue Jackets, in 2000 the 26 teams involved (Nashville and Atlanta were only a year old and given a pass) could only protect either 1 G, 5 D and 9 F or 2G, 3D and 5F. There were experience requirements for those players left exposed but if past experience is any indication, Dion Phaneuf would be one of the more impressive and desirable d-men left exposed.

    I am increasingly thinking this is a gamble worth taking.

    Hmmm. Must consider this some more.

    Using the 2000 expansion rules I suspect the Oilers protect off the current roster:
    1 G – Talbot, assuming his play to Dec warrants an extension

    5 D – Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Chia’s Mystery addition

    9 F – McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl, Yakupov, Lander, Slepashev, Yakimov

    Interesting exercise. In my “free time” I should project the other teams out.

    The last expansion draft didn’t have to deal with no movement clauses. How do you think those will be handled. Maybe they become forced protections? Also players on ELC would be exempt.

  80. spoiler says:

    godot10:
    Chiarelli sold high (draft picks at the draft) and didn’t sell low (Yakupov, Schultz), for assets that will make and impact during McDavid’s entry level contract, and the remaining years of Hall’s and Eberle’s value deals.

    One is supposed to buy low and sell high, which is exactly what Chiarelli did.

    The OIlers can use money to sign college, european, and CHL free agents to fill caps in the 26th to 50th contracts.

    Trading time for what can be replaced with money.

    I think I owe you this… since the whole McDeity thing blew up, your posts have been a real pleasure to read. Some real good stuff. Just wanted to give you a tip of the hat.

  81. Bank Shot says:

    spoiler:
    The Reinhart trade has shown that the cluster can be adjusted.There are more picks next year and more the year after that.And as someone above pointed out, it’s easy to flesh things out with college FAs etc.

    So I don’t think the cluster can be a consideration.

    I think the only real downside is that Talbot and/or Reinhart don’t work out.

    At least Chiarelli is trying to shore up the right areas.

    Mact came in and spent two of his best assets on another winger…..

  82. wheatnoil says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Rip Fan Winkle,

    Thanks. Until tonight I hadn’t considered the impact of an expansion draft but that will be a fact of McDavid’s ELC years – likely year 2 in 2017-2018.

    Last time the league expanded, with the Wild and Blue Jackets, in 2000 the 26 teams involved (Nashville and Atlanta were only a year old and given a pass) could only protect either 1 G, 5 D and 9 F or 2G, 3D and 5F. There were experience requirements for those players left exposed but if past experience is any indication, Dion Phaneuf would be one of the more impressive and desirable d-men left exposed.

    I am increasingly thinking this is a gamble worth taking.

    Hmmm. Must consider this some more.

    Using the 2000 expansion rules I suspect the Oilers protect off the current roster:
    1 G – Talbot, assuming his play to Dec warrants an extension

    5 D – Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Chia’s Mystery addition

    9 F – McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl, Yakupov, Lander, Slepashev, Yakimov

    Interesting exercise. In my “free time” I should project the other teams out.

    I wonder if the NHL will have a certain cap limit teams can protect or leave unprotected. Otherwise teams could just leave their overpaid players leaving the expansion teams with no choice but an overly expensive roster. It’ll be interesting. There hasn’t been an expansion draft in the salary cap era before.

    What have other sports done?

  83. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil:
    frjohnk,

    I think you’re a touch optimistic on Lander and Yakupov. Also, I think 16/17 might be a touch optimistic for Nurse and Reinhart to impact, though I think it’s reasonable to expect them to skate a regular shift at that point.

    Other than that, I do think 16/17 has a fair bit of potential.

    If Lander is as good as what he displayed at the world championships and can put that together for a NHL season, I think I will be close there.

    Yakupov and Reinhart are probably the least likely to succeed, but least likely does not mean wont. I think Yak becomes a decent 2nd line winger, we will know this year for sure when he has a gifted center.

    As for Reinhart, Yeah he had a wobbly first year as a pro, but he is very smart, a hard worker and will do what it takes to succeed. He may not cover the bet as a number 4 overall but I am not going to bet against him. He will be 22 at the start of next year, and I think an impactful player by then.

    I am very optimistic on Nurse. Extremely optimistic. I believe he earns a roster spot at the beginning of this upcoming season. Top 4 next year. Eventually our number 1 ” do it all D man”

  84. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers): Of course – I don’t see why privilege wouldn’t attach to communications in Lowetide’s comments section.

    Cheers, I’m likely not going to need such help, you’re a generous person. This surely must be a unique place amongst sports blogs with the range of contributions including especially the tone of our most welcoming host.

    What’s your take on a coming cap crunch if such things interest you?

  85. Richard S.S. says:

    Phaneuf’s contract has six years remaining at a Cap Hit of $6.5 Million. He will be 35 at the start of his last season. He is not, nor has been a #1 or a #2 defenseman and might not be a #3 Defenseman despite the number of minutes he plays (extreme) and the money he makes (expensive).

    Sekera’s contract has six years remaining at a Cap Hit of $5.5 Million. He will be 34 at the start of his last season. He is presently and always has been a first-pairing defenseman. He should stay that way for another few years yet, possibly more.

    I’m not opposed to acquiring him, if the price isn’t excessive. Schultz, Ference or Nikitin, one of Hunt, Davidson, Oesterle or Musil plus a Second in 2016, and no one holds back money.

  86. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    wheatnoil: I wonder if the NHL will have a certain cap limit teams can protect or leave unprotected. Otherwise teams could just leave their overpaid players leaving the expansion teams with no choice but an overly expensive roster. It’ll be interesting. There hasn’t been an expansion draft in the salary cap era before.

    What have other sports done?

    Very good point, you know they will somehow put a less than sensible twist in it if past actions are any clue.

  87. kinger_OIL says:

    I don’t have game like DSF but this roster is miles away from playoffs unless they go calgray last year or Denver the year before. Hope for that for sure but Sekera is petry and McDonald’s a plus for sure and the rest a push and we hope new coach to improve. 85 points would be a miracle. I will refer to this post all year.

  88. Richard S.S. says:

    dangilitis:
    LT I see what you are saying in a lot of ways

    For me this was the year to trade multiple picks to get higher quality in first 3 rds. I don’t understand why they gave up the 3rd rd this year to sj but maybe they wanted to spread out the 2 lost picks.

    The 2 players you are really lamenting having lost would have likely been forwards drafted in the top 31. We got great forwards and they should be ready now to help McDavid as well as 3 years from now. Getting more developed d men to fall in line with this timeline was key and reinhart is not old enough and that is the bigger issue I guess. Edmonton has no capable d man between the ages of 21-28 on their big club. Development of Simpson or Schultz or Laleggia would help bridge this gap but the oilers needed some prime d men in the 22-26 year cluster to peak when McDavid is ready and the stellar forwards are still all present, and gryba, sekera and reinhart don’t fill this need.

    I think it’s possible #86 was sent to San Jose for Todd McLellan was as compensation, because he was planning all along to be bringing Jay Woodcroft and Jim Johnson with him.

  89. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    frjohnk: If Lander is as good as what he displayed at the world championships and can put that together for a NHL season, I think I will be close there.

    Yakupov and Reinhart are probably the least likely to succeed, but least likely does not mean wont.I think Yak becomes a decent 2nd line winger, we will know this year for sure when he has a gifted center.

    As for Reinhart, Yeah he had a wobbly first year as a pro, but he is very smart, a hard worker and will do what it takes to succeed. He may not cover the bet as a number 4 overall but I am not going to bet against him.He will be 22 at the start of next year, and I think an impactful player by then.

    I am very optimistic on Nurse.Extremely optimistic.I believe he earns a roster spot at the beginning of this upcoming season.Top 4 next year. Eventually our number 1 ” do it all D man”

    I see this group of players as being playoff capable, assuming JS, NN and AF are replaced if ineffective, and I believe PC will do that if warranted. The roster doesn’t have to be ideal for success, just not wholly holey, and capable goaltending.

    The difference to me is in winning series. That would be down to luck barring miraculous growth at this point. When it hits gents it will hit fast with this group. It won’t be a slow steady progress, more like a shuttle launch. It likely isn’t far off.

    Edit: I typed gents but meant folks, with respect to the feminine readers and commenters.

  90. Glovjuice says:

    Hey all,

    For those of you questioning Chia moving the picks in the 2015 draft out of fear of lack of depth/cheap contacts to support the #97 cluster, look at Saad. He is exactly what you are all talking about – “drafted and developed” by the Hawks to support the Koews cluster – and now gone for average. Think about it.

  91. Bank Shot says:

    kinger_OIL:
    I don’t have game like DSF but this roster is miles away from playoffs unless they go calgray last year or Denver the year before. Hope for that for sure but Sekera is petry and McDonald’s a plus for sure and the rest a push and we hope new coach to improve. 85 points would be a miracle. I will refer to this post all year.

    Really Chiarelli has done a lot of work to get back to where Mactavish started this team last season. Just like Mact did the year before that.

    Plus Mcdavid.

    Lets hope he blows the lights out.

  92. Bank Shot says:

    Glovjuice:
    Hey all,

    For those of you questioning Chia moving the picks in the 2015 draft out of fear of lack of depth/cheap contacts to support the #97 cluster, look at Saad.He is exactly what you are all talking about – “drafted and developed” by the Hawks to support the Koews cluster – and now gone for average.Think about it.

    Yup. The Oilers can always move one of the top five picks for futures as well. I am sure they will have to at some point soon anyway.

    You can’t have 6 1st line forwards under the cap. Just can’t.

  93. Maggie the Monkey says:

    My concern – seriously – is that the Oilers are so bad in 2016-2017 that management does something rash to prevent the shiny new arena from being burnt down.In 2015-2016, barring further changes, Edmonton’s defence has still got to be one of the two or three worst in the NHL, right?I’m worried that, for this season, not only will the Oilers not challenge for the playoffs, but that may be twelfth or thirteenth in the conference again.

    I agree that we’re well situated for 2016-2017, assuming further efforts to improve the defensive corps between now and then.But I think things might be bad enough this season to disrupt staying the course.

    (I’m not faulting Chiarelli for the wretched state of the defence, particularly – there’s only so much that can be done in a single off-season – but it certainly remains in a wretched state.)

    Can someone be banned for agreeing with the Silver Fox?

  94. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Maggie the Monkey: Can someone be banned for agreeing with the Silver Fox?

    I hope not; he and I almost invariably agree.

  95. Richard S.S. says:

    To max out the McDavid’s lines effectiveness, his linemates need to skate extremely well, pass and receive passes very well, and score well.

    Last year, the Oilers were getting below average Goaltending. Scrivens should have a better, more average year. Talbot just has to be average. This year the Goaltending will be at least average or better. and that should be worth another 10 or more games won.

    Last year, the Oiler had average-ish Defense until Petry was traded. The additions of Sekera and Gryba can be considered replacements for Petry and Marincin, and upgrades as well. That should be worth 10 or more games won.

    Added Forward Lauri Korpikoski who can play on any line if needed. His Agent said he’s healthy and working very hard to be ready. Added Center Mark Letestu who can play any position on the bottom three lines. The differences the additions make, skating better and faster, passing well and scoring ability add at least a few games more to be won.

    Does that get the Oilers to the Postseason? It’s possible but unlikely if the additions are just average. If the additions are better? At the very least, this Team will be very fun to watch.

  96. thurmtim says:

    oliveoilers: I hear you,but that golden ticket changed everything.We draft fourth?We still have MacT and we know he’s as good as his season end presser.Development year, we make the picks with maybe a minor trade of MM.

    It’s gonna be a hell of a ride!I’m in, because a)I’m a fan and b)morbid fascination.

    Someone correct me if I am wrong (my natural state according to my ex), but I recall we signed Chia BEFORE we won the draft lotttery so you assertion doesn’t follow…

  97. Bank Shot says:

    thurmtim: Someone correct me if I am wrong (my natural state according to my ex), but I recall we signed Chia BEFORE we won the draft lotttery so you assertion doesn’t follow…

    After for sure.

  98. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Richard S.S.:
    To max out the McDavid’s lines effectiveness, they need to skate extremely well, pass and receive passes very well, and score well.

    Last year, the Oilers were getting below average Goaltending.Scrivens should have a better , more average year. Talbot just has top be average. This year the Goaltending will be at least average or better. and that should be worth another 10 or more games won.

    Last year, the Oiler had average-ish Defense until Petry was traded.The additions of Sekera and Gryba can be considered replacements for Petry and Maricin, and upgrades as well.That should be worth 10 or more games won.

    Added Forward Lauri Korpikoski who can play on any line if needed.His Agent said he’s healthy and working very hard to be ready.Added Center Mark Letestu who can play any position on the bottom three lines.The differences the additions make, skating better and faster, passing well and scoring ability add at least a few games more to be won.

    Does that get the Oilers to the Postseason?It’s possible but unlikely if the additions are just average.If the additions are better?At the very least, this Team will be fun to watch.

    The holes are where a player is slotted that can’t cover the bet. As it stands the forward group has enough, in goal there is probably enough, but another upgrade can’t hurt at the most critical position.

    I see the left side defense as having enough options. Fayne can play first pairing with a competent partner. The issue is at second and third pair right defense. Neither Schultz or Gryba can play second pair, that’s the hole now.

    Not that every player can’t be upgraded outside of the top few.

  99. Lowetide says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: The holes are where a player is slotted that can’t cover the bet. As it stands the forward group has enough, in goal there is probably enough, but another upgrade can’t hurt at the most critical position.

    I see the left side defense as having enough options. Fayne can play first pairing with a competent partner. The issue is at second and third pair right defense. Neither Schultz or Gryba can play second pair, that’s the hole now.

    Not that every player can’t be upgraded outside of the top few.

    I see the Oilers as having three legit options:

    Sekera—Fayne
    Klefbom—????

    Edmonton has 400 third pairing guys and frankly I’m fine with any of them. The second pairing has no acceptable candidate, unless someone surprises in a big way.

  100. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I see the Oilers as having three legit options:

    Sekera—Fayne
    Klefbom—????

    Edmonton has 400 third pairing guys and frankly I’m fine with any of them. The second pairing has no acceptable candidate, unless someone surprises in a big way.

    Chia’s comments seemed to indicate that he thought Sekera was a linchpin 2nd… if so, and Sekera is a leftie, then he’s hinting he’d like to have a #1 leftie if he can find one… does that mean that Chia has Schultz pencilled in at 1RD?

    McLellan has seen a lot of Schultz, one would think he knows what he is.

    Or is he thinking he’ll use Sekera as the 1RD if he doesn’t find another Dman? Something like:

    Klef Sekera
    Nurse/NN Fayne
    Reinhart Schultz

    I worry about what they think of Schultz. I prefer to keep him and see what he does with a summer of motivation and McLellan’s coaching, but I also think he would do better with fewer minutes and too many minutes might have been part of the problem.

    Although there really is no other right-handed option with any sort of offense at all. Still.

    But I’m with Godot, I don’t think Franson is the answer either. Maybe, if he’ll take a one year.

  101. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Hey guys. I missed all the draft and free agent excitement since my laptop was in the shop (why did I make an auto password?). Anyway, now that we are done talking about feelings (can we add that to the banned list?), I want to comment on LTs post at ON. ON is a tough spot to comment now though, so from now on I will just respond here.

    McDavid and Hall are a hard pair to play together off the bat. I know a month ago I was salivating over a Hall CMD Yak line, but with the excitement slowly subsiding it’s time to start thinking rationally. Main goal this year has to be keeping McDavid away from tough competition. Maybe after christmas or at home or late in games we can mix and match a bit, but for now we have to try to shelter McDavid. Hall will draw the top competition pretty much wherever he goes. So for next year at least, we have to separate the two. The best way scare the competition to not matching McDavid is by keeping the old gang together. So that means a first line of Hall RNH Eberle.

    I really think Yak hall and connor will gel really nicely, but yak and connor still need shelter. For this reason, I don’t think you can give McDavid two wily vets. We cannot afford to leave Yak on an island again. So I glue the two together, and let them work on their chemistry in the future. Yak is a very interesting player who seems tough to figure out, but if anyone can do it, it’s McDavid. Yak will get some wide open looks with McDavid forcing the men back. Yak is also a thick, tough kid, who will help battle in the Ozone. The question becomes who do you put on the wing. Pouliot is the first to jump to mind, Other options I see would be to put lander at C and shift connor to wing, or flip purcell to LW. Of the three options, I think I like the second one the best. It gives connor a padded entry into the league. Lander gets a chance to prove he can put up points, and I think he is the best defender out of the three.

    Third line obviously becomes Pouliot Letetsu and Purcell. This would be a big, veteran line that can still chip in a little offensively. The fourth line is kind of a mix and match, and I would like to grab another C, but failing that Hendricks or Korpikoski plays C. It is probably Korpikoski Hendricks Pitlick/Pako.

    I hear kostisyn wants to return to the nhl, and is willing to sign an extremely cheap deal. He would be a good shot to take at 4RW I think. He could move up as he proves himself.

    TL;DR

    Hall RNH Eberle
    McDavid Lander Yakupov
    Pouliot Letetsu Purcell
    Korpikoski Hendricks Kostitsyn
    Pitlick

  102. RPG says:

    wheatnoil: I see why you don’t go by your real name.

    I once decided to unravel this enigma. The solution was remarkably simple upon reflection.

  103. Магия 10 says:

    Matty: Oilers’ coach Todd McLellan says he’s still looking for a third assistant coach, probably by the end of this month.

    Also tomorrow is deadline for 19 to go the arb route.

  104. jm363561 says:

    spoiler:
    The Reinhart trade has shown that the cluster can be adjusted.There are more picks next year and more the year after that.And as someone above pointed out, it’s easy to flesh things out with college FAs etc.

    So I don’t think the cluster can be a consideration.

    I think the only real downside is that Talbot and/or Reinhart don’t work out.

    I’m not so much concerned about whether Barzal and his buddy do well.First, there is only a chance today that they do, and that doesn’t change today’s game state if they do.They weren’t more certain because they beat the odds.And, out of the years of control on those prospects, some of those years will be in the minors not doing damage to us.Thirdly, we traded all of the picks out of conference. And finally, really the only important consideration is… did trading the picks bring us what was needed? That story remains to be seen, but if it works out, the success of the picks is kind of irrelevant.

    Totally agree. If Talbot and Reinhart work out as we all hope (and pray) the 2015 draft will be a total triumph. Only time will tell, (although I am pretty nervous about both). In Peacha we trust, kinda.

  105. Магия 10 says:

    RPG: I once decided to unravel this enigma. The solution was remarkably simple upon reflection.

    Keep your stick on the ice. 😉

  106. jm363561 says:

    To add one more to the almost infinite list of line combinations, I could see McLander in the top 6. Teddy is too slow for Hall / McD (or they are too fast); Yak just cannot defend. I could see Lander (who I really really like – a warrior) with those 2.

  107. spoiler says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker): Hall RNH Eberle
    McDavid Lander Yakupov
    Pouliot Letetsu Purcell
    Korpikoski Hendricks Kostitsyn
    Pitlick

    My worry about playing McDavid at wing, and I was an early proponent, is that he will take a beating along the boards.

    But I do want to see someone patrolling his wing. Plus we got all these bottom 6 wingers now, and I’m not sure what that’s all about.

    Because Pouls, Ebs and Nuge worked so well, I’d like to keep it if possible.

    And Hall, when healthy, with Lander worked well and prevented teams from keying on one line. I don’t want to see Lander returned to stone-handed wingers if possible.

    If McDavid can be a third scoring line then unicorns!! Protect him at evens with 3rd line TOI, let him destroy butter and feed him all the PP time he can handle. Which means you can also protect Yak, and find him a center he might finally have some chemistry with.

    So going by that philosophy means:

    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hall-Lander-XXXX
    XXXX-McDavid-Yakupov

    XXXX candidates:

    Purcell
    Hendricks
    Korpikoski
    Klinkhammer
    Miller
    Pitlick

    Purcell can do some things but I’d sure like to see someone better filling XXXX.

    Miller has the speed to keep up with McD or Hall, but doesn’t provide much physical protection for McD.

    That leaves us with something like this:

    Hall-Lander-Miller
    Korpikoski-McDavid-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Purcell

    Or flip Hendricks and Korpse.

    Really, really wish we could dump some salary and re-wire this team a little more.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    dangilitis,

    They gave up the pick this year Imo because he didn’t like or trust his scouts. He just canned a bunch of them and didn’t have his guys in place. Next year he will have his guys in place so in his opinion it will be more useful even if it’s a few picks lower

  109. RPG says:

    If the 2016 draft is supposedly as deep as 2015, I really don’t think irreparable harm has been done to the “McDavid” cluster. Chia will most assuredly go into the next draft with a flock of hand picked scouts, whom he trusts far more than assorted mixed bag of Tambellini / Mac T leftovers. Immediate action needed to be taken, and I for one feel he got tremendous value. I also believe there’s more to come, and I’m encouraged that it was done without taking away from the cluster.

  110. Магия 10 says:

    Don’t have a clue how any of you can discuss the work done the last few months without obsessing that the Flames have had Gio for some time and were gifted Hamilton who we really needed. 😉

  111. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Магия 10,

    I frankly don’t understand how anybody can say anything about the Oilers, or indeed about life on Earth generally, without noting the Flames’ three (count ’em!) number one defencemen.

  112. Hockey Buddha says:

    Our team has been living for the future for many years, so trading picks for young, roster ready players is exactly the right thing to do at this point. Not only do they help to fill holes in the line up, these trades send a key message to the players. As soon as the team drafted Connor McDavid, it is on the clock. It is essential to commit to the present, to commit to winning and to change attitudes throughout the organization.

  113. RPG says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers):
    Магия 10,

    I frankly don’t understand how anybody can say anything about the Oilers, or indeed about life on Earth generally, without noting the Flames’ three (count ’em!) number one defencemen.

    But do those three number one defencmen understand the most important concept of all, that the best defense to a box is a triangle? If they can’t defend the box, we still have hope.

  114. spoiler says:

    Oil2Oilers (also formerly Steve Smith): An important item to remember in this discussion is the Oilers still have all there picks for next year, except the extra Horcoff 7th rounder the spent this year on a Russian Giant. They will likely to be able to add 2nd or 3d round picks at the deadline for Nitikin and Purcell.

    You’re not the real Steve Smith! Either of them. No way that there gets used there instead of their. I don’t think “Steve” could do it even as a disguise.

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    First, 5 draft picks does not guarantee 5 actual NHL players.

    The success rate on those picks is more akin to 2 NHL players, which is what we received in turn.

    Second, the picks dealt for Reinhart #16 and #33 garnered a player drafted 4th overall in his draft year.

    Why do I get the feeling if Chia had dealt those picks to move up to No. 4 in this draft and picked Hanifan, he would’ve been hailed as a genius? Likely because Hanifan still has that shiny prospect new car smell whereas Reinhart has a few miles under the odometer.

    Serious question LT, if you hand Chiarelli your shopping list, suggest he shouldn’t trade any of the core, and backhand criticize him for dealing draft picks, how else is he supposed to complete the list? If he does it all via free agency, he pushes the cap to the limit.

    We wanted Chia to trade picks for a young D with pedigree. We wanted Chia to trade the #33 for Talbot and he got him for less. And now we’re quibbling about the cost. Smacks of wanting to have our cake and eat it too.

  116. Bag of Pucks says:

    I love the fact that draft junkies are bemoaning the fact we didn’t draft Barzal as if a small skill C was the one crucial piece preventing this team from contending.

    FWIW, I tried Barzal to patch a leaky radiator once. Turns out it’s total crap.

  117. Магия 10 says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers):
    Магия 10,

    I frankly don’t understand how anybody can say anything about the Oilers, or indeed about life on Earth generally, without noting the Flames’ three (count ’em!) number one defencemen.

    Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun. Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-two million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they can think they can shift along without three number 1 Vogon guards.

  118. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ray: The last expansion draft didn’t have to deal with no movement clauses. How do you think those will be handled. Maybe they become forced protections? Also players on ELC would be exempt.

    This will be the first expansion in the Cap-era but I can’t imagine that the CBA has any exemption for expansion teams.

    As for exempting players from any expansion draft, the rules this time out may be different but in 2000 only 1st and 2nd year pros and unsigned draft picks (except Euros drafted less than 4 years ago) were exempt. So McDavid, Nurse, Sleppy and Draisaitl would all need to be protected.

  119. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Магия 10: Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun. Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-two million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they can think they can shift along without three number 1 Vogon guards.

    Mark Giordano’s poetry is the seventh worst in the galaxy.

  120. Ice Sage says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m not condemning the trades, quite like both players and the pick seems reasonable based on draft position. I’m saying that when you make trades like this, the cost to the franchise is two to ten years out and could be dear. Those picks were part of the Connor McDavid cluster, Cam Talbot may not be part of it. We need to recognize these things, acknowledge them. They’re important

    The flip side of that is at the end of McDavid’s ELC we’re lamenting the loss of his cheap years for the want of cheap Dmen and a goalie.

    We’ll see.

    Nicely put, WG – this echo my thoughts, exactly. Enough of loading the cannon, Chia is packing the (kept-dry-for long-enough) powder now.
    Brazil could be good but is redundant in Edm.

  121. Cameron says:

    Магия 10:
    Don’t have a clue how any of you can discuss the work done the last few months without obsessing that the Flames havehad Gio for some time and were gifted Hamilton who we really needed.

    By all means, I believe you can only judge how awful your infinite rebuild is going by comparing it to how well ours is.

  122. spoiler says:

    Магия 10,

    Not only is it a wholly remarkable book, it is also a highly successful one — more popular than the Celestial Home Care Omnibus, better selling than 53 More Things to do in Zero Gravity, and more controversial than Dashing Oolon Colluphid’s trilogy of philosophical blockbusters Where McDavid Went Wrong, Some More of McDavid’s Greatest Mistakes and Who is this McDavid Person Anyway?

  123. rickithebear says:

    Dougie hamilton is a -1 per game d versus SJS; ANA; VCR; LAK until he cam prove otherwise.

    Oilers
    VS east
    15-14-3
    VS Pacific
    4-21-4

    He is moving from the East to the pacific.
    But?
    Will play 2nd comp D.

  124. rickithebear says:

    When you chart talbots results with players using CA/60 versus EVGA.
    a Interesting curve starts to form.
    Still not enough Data.
    but the fringes are key
    46.00 CA/60 1.20 EVGA
    49.00 CA/60 1.70
    52.00 CA/60 1.95
    55.00 CA/60 2.10
    58.00 Ca/60 2.45

  125. spoiler says:

    rickithebear:
    Dougie hamilton is a -1 per game d versus SJS; ANA; VCR; LAK until he cam prove otherwise.

    Oilers
    VS east
    15-14-3
    VS Pacific
    4-21-4

    He is moving from the East to the pacific.
    But?
    Will play 2nd comp D.

    I’m encouraged by that too, Ricki, but he also might improve by playing them more. Don’t know which way the knife is going to cut.

  126. Revolved says:

    Lowetide: Well put. The next question then, and it’s a tough answer, is do you wait on the expiring contracts and make that next step to improvement next summer? Allowing Nikitin, Purcell to burn? I think that’s probably the right call but it’s galling because they’re so close.

    Unfortunately, there is very little choice but to wait until next summer to keep working on the D. Our captain is unmovable and will likely get a roster spot this year.

    The reason this does not have me overly concerned is that this year wasn’t going to be our year anyway. Nurse, GR, Drai, Yak and Mcdavid need at least a year to start putting it together. I will be happy if we can move up one or two spots in the pacific.

    However, in 17/18 these boys had all better be men, because we need to win the clock strikes 12 and Ebs, Hall and RNHs contracts turn to pumpkins!

  127. hunter1909 says:

    Revolved: Unfortunately, there is very little choice but to wait until next summer to keep working on the D. Our captain is unmovable and will likely get a roster spot this year.

    He’s movable, waiveable, tradeable, and pressboxable. Chiarelli’s not sentimental. Business is business.

    As far as that roster spot, thesoontobeformercaptainAndrewFerence had better turn up in September ready to play hockey. New Coach McLellan has no reason to keep this relic from the bad old days on the team. Not unless he believes he’s valuable.

    I share your position, despite disagreeing with your point. When you follow a team run by morons, aka Lowe/MacT/Howson/ the OBC, their narrative has a strong tendency to influence things.

    Revolved: However, in 17/18 these boys had all better be men, because we need to win the clock strikes 12 and Ebs, Hall and RNHs contracts turn to pumpkins!

    Once the Hall/Eberle mafia meet Connor McDavid, I seriously doubt if anyone will go anywhere. There’s only so much anyone can do with money. McDavid’s going to be the NHL UFA’s 1st destination of choice, which means Chiarelli can enjoy what amounts to a pipeline of NHLers dying to play with the top star in hockey, and get glory.

    I know it sounds optimistic.

  128. Магия 10 says:

    Cameron: By all means, I believe you can only judge how awful your infinite rebuild is going by comparing it to how well ours is.

    I’m sure if Chia has even the slightest chance of turning North he looks South 5 times a day.

  129. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Whenever the D come up, my first thought remains Kulikov.

  130. Doug McLachlan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Have thought this as well but unsure of the price, which would be dear.

  131. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Glovjuice:
    Hey all,

    For those of you questioning Chia moving the picks in the 2015 draft out of fear of lack of depth/cheap contacts to support the #97 cluster, look at Saad.He is exactly what you are all talking about – “drafted and developed” by the Hawks to support the Koews cluster – and now gone for average.Think about it.

    Saad’s a little bit unique for a few of reasons.

    1. he hit earlier and harder than anyone can reasonably expect for a prospect not taken in the top 5 or so.

    2. he hit on a championship team and therefore gets championship-level contract inflation

    3. that return wasn’t average IMO. Bowman did very well. They traded from a position of strength (wing) to a position of weakness (centre) and finally solved their 2C issue for good. And, they picked up some really nice extras in the deal.

  132. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Have thought this as well but unsure of the price, which would be dear.

    It’s a hobby horse of mine.

    The price would be very dear. I’d probably pay it, which is why I’m not a GM. Or, maybe why I should be one… they seem to like saying things like “I’ve got time for…” “I’ve always had a soft spot for…” etc.

    But, there was definitely a time for this to happen. Kulikov has never been on good terms with Tallon and was very openly on the market last year before he re-upped with FLA.

    Before that too… I bet he could have been targeted. I don’t think FLA has ever been completely on board with his value. I like this player a lot.

  133. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Serious question LT, if you hand Chiarelli your shopping list, suggest he shouldn’t trade any of the core, and backhand criticize him for dealing draft picks, how else is he supposed to complete the list? If he does it all via free agency, he pushes the cap to the limit.

    I think Chiarelli had a good summer. I believe he addressed all areas (crossed everything off my list) and that he made some reasonable and very reasonable bets. The point of this post was to acknowledge, and have all of us acknowledge, the real risk in doing it.

    I would also suggest to you that the Griffin Reinhart trade was an overpay based on what was available at the time. Said so day of, continue to believe it. That does NOT mean I don’t like GR as a prospect, however. I like him a lot.

  134. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: I think Chiarelli had a good summer. I believe he addressed all areas (crossed everything off my list) and that he made some reasonable and very reasonable bets. The point of this post was to acknowledge, and have all of us acknowledge, the real risk in doing it.

    I would also suggest to you that the Griffin Reinhart trade was an overpay based on what was available at the time. Said so day of, continue to believe it. That does NOT mean I don’t like GR as a prospect, however. I like him a lot.

    Doc said we got Mom to the hospital just in time to turn her North but ya really have to question the overpay we made at the hospital parking lot.

  135. Snowman says:

    I think people are thinking too much about the lines.

    It’s pretty clear to me that Hall-Nuge-Ebs are going to be a thing until CMD gets his feet wet and he starts earning top competition from his coach.

    I think Naturally it follows that it will be Pou-CMD-Drai, You can’t play Yak with CMD because Yak only sort of understands one side of the puck.

    Yak gets Lander. I think he’ll cash many a cross seam pass from the swede. And he’ll get fed powerplay time. Drai seemed to be able to play both sides of the puck pretty well and Pou is a cagey vet that can help out and he’s a fast train so he might be able to keep up. That’s a lot of speed through the neutral zone with Pou-CMD. Sphincters will tighten.

    That’s how I see the lines shaking out.

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Pou-CMD-Drai
    Purcell-Lander-Yak

  136. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Whenever the D come up, my first thought remains Kulikov.

    I like Kulikov. If he was a righty, he would be perfect for us.
    Has he played the right side much in Florida?

  137. frjohnk says:

    LT,
    Just listening to the podcast of your SSE
    Your D

    Sekara-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nurse-Gryba
    Ference IR or 7th

    Nikitin bought out or AHL

    Almeida’s D

    Sekara-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nurse-Reinhart
    Gryba

    With what Nurse did in jr this past year, how well he played in OKC and favorable reports from prospect camp, this kid is definitely ready for the show next year.

    Unless he gets injured, the door jambs are getting kicked out by him this fall.

  138. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: I like Kulikov.If he was a righty, he would be perfect for us.
    Has he played the right side much in Florida?

    not that I’m aware of.

    His partner all year was Matt Greene, who plays the right side.

    The counterfactual here would include Kulikov coming over prior to the Reinhart trade.

    I’d still be happy to find a way to get him in our current top 4 by shuffling someone over, probably Sekara.

  139. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: His partner all year was Matt Greene, who plays the right side.

    Is there a Matt Greene other than the one in LA?

    You got me to check this out and Kulikov played 1174 even strength minutes
    602 minutes were with Mitchell who shoots left
    219 minutes were with Petrovic who shoots right
    192 minutes were with Gudbrandson who shoots right

    He might play both sides Im guessing

  140. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: not that I’m aware of.

    His partner all year was Matt Greene, who plays the right side.

    The counterfactual here would include Kulikov coming over prior to the Reinhart trade.

    I’d still be happy to find a way to get him in our current top 4 by shuffling someone over, probably Sekara.

    Matt Greene plays for LAK, Kulikov plays for FLA.

    Kulikov’s main partner is Willie MItchell.

    Both are LH

    As far as I remember Mitchell plays the right side of that pair.

    Kulikov’s other two partners were Petrovic and Gubranson. Both are RH.

    I would wager that Gubranson is more available than Kulikov.

    Gubranson just can’t seem to break out of the 3rd pairing in FLA and Petrovic (good EDM boy!) is poised to eat his lunch this year.

    I don’t know if I’d want Gubranson as 2RD on the Oilers though.

    His development stalled a while ago and I don’t know if he’s much better (or better at all) than Gryba

  141. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    spoiler: My worry about playing McDavid at wing, and I was an early proponent, is that he will take a beating along the boards.

    But I do want to see someone patrolling his wing. Plus we got all these bottom 6 wingers now, and I’m not sure what that’s all about.

    Because Pouls, Ebs and Nuge worked so well, I’d like to keep it if possible.

    And Hall, when healthy, with Lander worked well and prevented teams from keying on one line.I don’t want to see Lander returned to stone-handed wingers if possible.

    If McDavid can be a third scoring line then unicorns!!Protect him at evens with 3rd line TOI, let him destroy butter and feed him all the PP time he can handle.Which means you can also protect Yak, and find him a center he might finally have some chemistry with.

    So going by that philosophy means:

    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hall-Lander-XXXX
    XXXX-McDavid-Yakupov

    XXXX candidates:

    Purcell
    Hendricks
    Korpikoski
    Klinkhammer
    Miller
    Pitlick

    Purcell can do some things but I’d sure like to see someone better filling XXXX.

    Miller has the speed to keep up with McD or Hall, but doesn’t provide much physical protection for McD.

    That leaves us with something like this:

    Hall-Lander-Miller
    Korpikoski-McDavid-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Purcell

    Or flip Hendricks and Korpse.

    Really, really wish we could dump some salary and re-wire this team a little more.

    LT has called for Pisani repeatedly, McD needs a veteran presence who can support his antics. I feel he would benefit from a tough or large winger with skill as well, someone to push back should anyone get ideas.

    This is the problem with guys like Purcell and why he slides everywhere. He has ability, but isn’t a top offensive player, still doesn’t score enough even if sheltered, isn’t fast, has no physical game, and isn’t great defensively. To top it off is also a cap hog.

    While the team has high end rookies to break in they have to find shelter for Purcell, and also NSF. It’s the wall between here and really solid. If he can Pete needs to shed the excess salary and better the roster.

    Find a 2nd pair RHD and how about Erik Cole (short term) and Chris Stewart as wingers for McD, subbing Yak in on the road.

  142. admiralmark says:

    “This could have been an astounding draft if the club had kept the picks and part of me really believes the right call was making those selections. That said, Edmonton hired Peter Chiarelli to improve the team immediately and have them in contention for the playoffs this time next summer.” – LT

    My feeling on this just to add what you said is the team w/McDavid in light of all thats happened absolutely HAD to at minimum push for a playoff spot this year. Is this ultimately the most wise formula to follow in order to build a team that is “long term” competitive? Possibly not. It’s a sad state of affairs and with McDavid about to enter the lineup there literally was no choice as far as i’m concerned.

    Once that was accepted the choices were trade a core player Eberle, Hall, RNH, or Nurse to improve the D/G. Or option #2 trade this years higher draft picks. Because these are the two avenues with enough value to get something substantial. I would put money on it had Yakupov raised his value enough then he would of been part or central to the trade to improve. So in light of the dire straights the team was under the depressed value of some of the existing assets. Chiarelli went out and got back 80% value on those higher draft picks in the form of Reinhart/Talbot.

    As time has gone along further past the draft I have reconciled with myself and Chiarelli(even though he’s unaware) that this was the most appropriate approach. Even though we like the prospects passed over in order to make these moves… ok LOVE the prospects passed over. They are still prospects. Injuries may occur, we don’t know absolutely who they were going to draft, etc. Point being there’s no absolutes on either side. But what we know is Talbot and Reinhart are going to be greater contributors to this team sooner then what those picks would of brought in. And this team Hall, Eberle, RNH in particular need to get to know what its like to win in this league today.

    In my mind even if Barzal/Svetchnikov/insert name becomes the superstar we think 2-3 years from now. I understand the thought process behind this move by Chiarelli. Fingers crossed these “good bets” turn into astute GM moves.

  143. Richard S.S. says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly “Steve Smith”),

    I’ve had a good life because it didn’t involve personal computers for many years after they came out. Someone else took care of the computer stuff. Since I had to become slightly computer literate recently, I’ve been checking on my favorite Teams, Blue Jays (about 1977), Oilers (around WHL times) and Raptors (last five years). Can I say that Edmonton’s 2015 draft (rounds 4-7) was the best ever? Probably not, but then I didn’t notice it more than the last 3-4 years. Best in the last four-five years? Yes, I think that it’s possibly .

  144. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Is there a Matt Greene other than the one in LA?

    Woodguy: Matt Greene plays for LAK, Kulikov plays for FLA.
    Kulikov’s main partner is Willie MItchell.

    Haha….

    went and stared at the WOWY’s for a while… pulled Mitchell’s stats, stared at them, thought about them, etc.

    and damned if I didn’t read “Matt Greene” each and every time Willie Mitchell was on the screen.

    the brain is a strange and stupid place.

  145. Магия 10 says:

    frjohnk: Almeida’s D
    Sekara-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nurse-Reinhart
    Gryba

    I think we might actually see a lot of that late in the season.

    Where Doc G helps Nurse :

    JW: Reinhart’s defensive zone positioning is quite strong; it was funny watching him in his second career NHL game with his head on a swivel directing defensive zone traffic for the Islanders. He just knows where to be…He also seems to have playing a two-on-one down pat, which is something that hasn’t always been the case on Edmonton’s blue line in recent years.

    Where Nurse helps Doc G:

    JW: he looked less error-prone than (for example) Oscar Klefbom in the neutral zone but Klefbom’s skating means he can get away with mistakes that Reinhart can’t. Similarly, when he forces a dump-in (which he’s good at doing, more in a moment) a lot of times he has to fight a puck battle under less than ideal conditions because his opponents make it to the back wall just a hair faster than he does.

    This is a pairing that could rise together and earn progressively more ice time together. GR is 1 yr furthet along and the more structured nhl game should slow down for him sooner. I’d guess his last night in the A is 20-40 nights earlier than Nurse.

  146. AsiaOil says:

    Well this is what above average mgmt can achieve when they are free to apply their skills and experience. Quite the contrast from the previous neophytes.

    LT you have become addicted to magic beans – no surprising given the past 9 years – but it’s a dangerous addiction as a manger. We have saved all of the young forwards and our own first round pick while improving and addressing the most critical needs – quite an accomplishment. The path forward is clear – obtain or develop top pair talent on defense. Shultz is actually very important – Eakin and MacT crushed him just as badly as the other young ones but did it through undeserved praise and opportunities. Now he will have accountability and solid coaching for the first time since his rookie season (where he did quite well) and let’s see how it rolls. Same with Yak and Lander.

    I actually think that the new Finn will spend quite a bit of time with Hall and CMD – think about it – what this pair needs is a complementary (key word) big, strong, fast, defensively aware guy who can cash occasionally. No need for a super-star at every slot in the top 6 – you need complementary players like Poo – and the Finn might be a guy who we “bought low”.

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