SUPERNOVA

The following words come from Chad Paul, Supernova on this site and twitter. He wrote this before the change in scouting directors but the general thrust is the same and it’s an interesting look to be sure. My sincere thanks to Chad for the opportunity to post.

After reading posts about how bad Oilers drafting has been under MBS I decided to look into draft records and started with Anaheim; who has received a lot of attention from MSM for how well they have accumulate young talent. In this comparison I look at drafts from 2007 through to 2010, although we haven’t hit the 5 year mark for the 2010 draft I felt it was close enough for comparison. I also didn’t want to stretch to far back as GM’s and scouting staff could be different.

2007

RD Pick Player GP Pts

1- 19 Logan Macmillan 0

2- 42 Eric Tangradi – 136 15

3- 63 Maxime Macenauer- 29 4

4- 92 Justine Vaive 0

4- 93 Steven Kampfer 61 15

4- 98 Sebestian Stefaniszin 0

4- 121 Mattias Modig 0

5- 151 Brett Morrisson 0

Total Picks 8

2008

RD Pick Player GP Pts

1-17 Jake Gardiner 167 65

2-35 Nicolas Deschamps 3 0

2-39 Eric O’Dell 30 7

2-43 Justin Schultz 122 60

3-71 Josh Brittain 0

3-83 Marcel Cousineau 0

3-85 Brandon Macmillan 113 32

4-113 Ryan Haggerty 0

5-143 Stefan Warg 0

7-208 Nick Pryor 0

2009

RD Pick Player GP Pts

1-15 Peter Holland 68 17

1-26 Kyle Palmieri 141 60

2-37 Matt Clark 2 0

3-76 Igor Bobkov 0

4-106 Sami Vatenan 56 23

5-136 Radoslav Illo 0

6-166 Scott Valentine 0

2010

RD Pick Player GP Pts

1-12 Cam Fowler 265 116

1-29 Emerson Etem 67 21

2-42 Devante Smith-Pelley 75 23

5-122 Chris Wagner 0

5-132 Tim Heed 0

6-161 Andreas Dahlstrom 0

6-177 Kevin Lind 0

7-192 Brett Perlini 0

  • These 4 years total 33 picks totaling 1335 games played for 458 (I know Points and games Played aren’t the only things that matter).
  • 18 picks have played 0 games which means approximately 55% of them have never (may not ever) played an NHL game.
  • 9 Picks have played 0 – 100 games
  • 5 Picks have played 101- 200 games
  • 1 pick has played over 200 games

Is this a success? I would say yes, and it seems that the games played will keep climbing. I won’t recap the same drafts for the Oilers because I believe this has been done plenty on the Oilogosphere. The quick Summation of the Oilers Picks for those years is

  • 29 Picks with 1623 games played for 906 points
  • 15 picks with 0 games for approximately 52% never playing.
  • 9 Picks with 0 -100 games
  • 1 pick with 101-200
  • 4 Picks with over 200

So what team has a better result? Time will tell but first let’s dig deeper into the number of picks that should produce players. On Lowetide’s blog this is typically the top 100 picks in a draft. I will stretch this number to 106 because Anaheim looks like they hit a home run in 2009 with Sami Vatenan.

  • Anaheim has picked 106 or better in this time period 21 times.
  • Edmonton has picked 106 or better in this time period 18 times.
  • Anaheim has had picks in the top 10 zero times.
  • Edmonton has had picks in the top 10 3 times.
  • Anaheim has had picks 50 or under 12 times.
  • Edmonton has had picks 50 or under 7 times.
  • Anaheim’s best draft year is 2008 of the 4 to date but none of those players play for the ducks anymore.
  • Edmonton’s is more mixed but it still might be 2010.

What did I learn?

  • Anaheim drafted a number of legit NHL players (Schultz, Gardiner, Palmieri, Vatanen, Fowler, Etem, Smith- Pelley) they have done really well on drafting defenceman and projectable top 6 and maybe top 9 forwards whereas Edmonton has grabbed legitimate top 6 forwards (Hall, Eberle, Gagner) but has struggled to find the depth players that should have long careers.

I don’t know that Anaheim is necessarily better at drafting. I think they have had a different need and that has helped their draft and development. To me it seems that Anaheim loaded up on top 106 picks and went to work on finding top 9 forwards that might even be top 12, and also hunted for top 4 defenceman. They used one of these assets to trade for a legitimate top 4 Defenceman. Although the Oilers did this as well with Paajarvi.

After looking at these drafts I don’t feel less confident in Stu Macgregor and his team, I feel that they had a different target. If the Oilers had Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan during this time I believe the mandate to Stu would have been to find depth forwards and role players. It also seems to me that the more top 50 picks you have the better you will do. To me first and second round picks are gold. Neither team did anything significant aside from Vatanen after that, and both had plenty of misfires.

The part that interests me out of this exercise is this:

Does Anaheim have a better Pro Personnel department? Do they have a better development department? Or where their needs just different because of their first line. To me it also seems that when Bob Murray became the GM and Martin Madden the director of scouting in 2008 their drafting improved and they seemingly have found the “truculent “players that Brian Burke loves.

For what it is worth I don’t think the Oilers need to change their GM or their Head scout. I think they need to get top 50 picks and look for the “doubles” or the jacks. As LT likes to say they have their aces and kings they just need the rest. I am more convinced of this now then I was before. I also think that the Oilers need to spend some significant assets in getting a Defenceman that would allow their draft picks the time to develop. None of these are new conclusions to me but it is more evident when looking at other teams.

  • Are my thoughts the same as yours?
  • Did I Overvalue the Oilers picking certain players?

Supernova

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60 Responses to "SUPERNOVA"

  1. Travis Dakin says:

    Having talked to the brothers of guys who have been labelled as “prospects” in the NHL (one was a #10 OA pick), I was blown away by how little time teams actually spend on developing these guys after being drafted. They do the courtesy check in once in a while but these kids are generally left to their own devices to figure things out. Things like teaching them proper nutrition for their specific needs and ensuring they are living a quality lifestyle.

    NHL clubs put a lot of faith in Junior coaches and billets to help these guys figure things out. Even when they get to the AHL they aren’t really given a good summer training programs or specific development plans. They’re just expected to show up “in shape”. I would have thought they’d invest more time into their assets. Seems like there might be value in keeping a closer eye on the guys who aren’t sure things. Especially 18-21 year old kids.

  2. David says:

    Nicely done Supernova. Very interesting article. I never really had a problem with Stu and for the most part I liked his drafts a lot. What they were doing in 2014 boggles my mind but other than that I trust Stu. (Well if he stayed away from the BCHL)

    That said I’m a huge believer in Bob Green and find it perplexing that he has gotten lumped in with Tambellini, MacTavish, and Howsen as builders of our demise when he was only here for a year in the head scouting job. (Plus one year of college free agents).

    I loved the Jones and Bear picks this draft, both have top 4D potential. Good times ahead.

  3. spoiler says:

    Very nice analysis, Supernova.

    Drafting is so hard to suss, takes years of comparisons to eliminate the “luck” factor.

    And it is equally difficult to discern the effect of management on selections.

    And having two more picks work out changes you from average to very good.

    And then there’s injuries and development.

    I think Stu et alii were average, and certainly not awful. But there are a couple of misses that look bad and that’s where the narrative lies.

  4. Ducey says:

    The NHLPA announced that 23 players filed for arbitration. Schultz was not one of them. No Oilers.

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

  5. Colieo87 says:

    Ducey:
    The NHLPA announced that 23 players filed for arbitration.Schultz was not one of them.No Oilers.

    What does this mean about Schultz?

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

  6. Frank the dog says:

    Due to volume of work I don’t post much right now and this is pretty much the only blog I am following this summer.
    My observation is that our amateur drafting was the least of our evils, comfortably exceeded by the gross ineptitude in much of the professional scouting, the lack of proper player development and the somewhat appalling deployment of our available resources, capped by a coach best described by Godot.

  7. Магия 10 says:

    Colieo87: What does this mean about Schultz?

    Scenarios narrow

    19 files – qo or deal or award or walk
    club files – qo or deal or award
    No filing – qo or deal or os or rights traded

    Edit: corrected

  8. Professor Q says:

    So, I take it Supernova would have been in favour of keeping all of the top-50 picks in this most recent draft as well?

    Or would certain trades make up for that top-50 threshold?

    Obviously many things have to be taken into consideration, too.

    Great post!

  9. speeds says:

    Магия 10: Scenarios narrow

    19 files – qo or deal or award
    club files – qo or deal or award or walk
    No filing – qo or deal or os or rights traded

    clubs can’t walk away when they file for arbitration.

  10. sliderule says:

    Kind of looks like there is a little cherry picking the years as 2007 was a KP draft.

    There have been numerous analysis showing that the Stu era while not Pens bad was in a solid bottom third of the NHL.

    It doesn’t matter now as Stu is gone and a couple of scouts were fired.

    We will get a hint in the next couple of drafts whether the new regime is any better at scouting.

    Like lowetides always says we have to wait five years for the final mark

  11. Doug McLachlan says:

    Travis Dakin:
    Having talked to the brothers of guys who have been labelled as “prospects” in the NHL (one was a #10 OA pick), I was blown away by how little time teams actually spend on developing these guys after being drafted. They do the courtesy check in once in a while but these kids are generally left to their own devices to figure things out. Things like teaching them proper nutrition for their specific needs and ensuring they are living a quality lifestyle.

    NHL clubs put a lot of faith in Junior coaches and billets to help these guys figure things out. Even when they get to the AHL they aren’t really given a good summer training programs or specific development plans. They’re just expected to show up “in shape”.I would have thought they’d invest more time into their assets. Seems like there might be value in keeping a closer eye on the guys who aren’t sure things. Especially 18-21 year old kids.

    Such stupid “old school” thinking.

    Could you imagine any successful company being so… well we all can probably imagine plenty but let’s turn this on it’s ear.

    The Oilers hire a development team that coordinates with hockey ops on things like nutrition, strength training, life-skills, etc. And put these guys out on the road not just to check in on the kids but keep reminding them that they are valued by the organization.

    You aren’t replacing their junior/college coach just offering a value-added service to the kids you are investing in.

  12. Optimism is Foolish says:

    Travis Dakin:
    Having talked to the brothers of guys who have been labelled as “prospects” in the NHL (one was a #10 OA pick), I was blown away by how little time teams actually spend on developing these guys after being drafted. They do the courtesy check in once in a while but these kids are generally left to their own devices to figure things out. Things like teaching them proper nutrition for their specific needs and ensuring they are living a quality lifestyle.

    NHL clubs put a lot of faith in Junior coaches and billets to help these guys figure things out. Even when they get to the AHL they aren’t really given a good summer training programs or specific development plans. They’re just expected to show up “in shape”.I would have thought they’d invest more time into their assets. Seems like there might be value in keeping a closer eye on the guys who aren’t sure things. Especially 18-21 year old kids.

    This blows my mind to be honest. Each of these kids has potential to be worth millions to the business of hockey for their respective teams. I am personally surprised that teams don’t have personnel and trainers attached to these kids and living with them. Draft day deficiencies could be worked on, players molded to play a nhl style game, help them adopt pro attitudes and lifestyles and support in any other ways the kids need it.

    I know as a chef I often get 18 year old kids in my kitchen and it takes alot of work to get them thinking and acting like a professional.

  13. Richard S.S. says:

    Ducey:
    The NHLPA announced that 23 players filed for arbitration.Schultz was not one of them.No Oilers.

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    So it begins:
    1) Justin Schultz, after consultation with those he consults with, accepts Oiler’s offer.
    2) Justin Schultz, after consultation with those he consults with, lets the Oiler file.
    3) Justin Schultz and the Oilers agree on a multi-year team friendly deal.
    4) Justin Schulz is traded to…
    Isn’t this fun?

  14. rickithebear says:

    David:
    Nicely done Supernova. Very interesting article. I never really had a problem with Stu and for the most part I liked his drafts a lot. What they were doing in 2014 boggles my mind but other than that I trust Stu. (Well if he stayed away from the BCHL)

    That said I’m a huge believer in Bob Green and find it perplexing that he has gotten lumped in with Tambellini, MacTavish, and Howsen as builders of our demise when he was only here for a year in the head scouting job. (Plus one year of college free agents).

    I loved the Jones and Bear picks this draft, both have top 4D potential. Good times ahead.

    How the fu……… do you complain about Mact’s drafting?

    2013
    #7 Nurse
    #56 MOR
    #83 Yakimov Russia Jr G scorer like Kovi; Ovi; Semin; Malkin; Tarasenko
    #88 Slepyshev Ditto
    #94 Houck
    #96 Platzer .75 PPG at 20 AHL
    #113 Muir
    #128 Campbell
    #158 Betker
    #188 Chase

    2014
    #3 Draisatl
    #91 Lagesson SWE WJC @ 18
    #111 Nagel Vort Carer 1-20 SV% like Gillies ; Schnieder; Bishop; Elliot; Quick; Howard
    #130 Coughlin
    #153 Vesel
    #183 Bouchard

  15. Rondo says:

    Anaheim doesn’t use advanced stats.

  16. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    I’m entirely in favour of reminding ourselves how hard it is to judge a scouting department by their short-term track record (anything less than a decade is short term for certain).

    But I think all too often we fall into the trap of conflated “need” with “opportunity”.

    Sure, we could draft another prospect that projects as a 1st line center. And then what? Development by packed suitcase, on permanent stand-by?

    Teams have a finite amount of “opportunity” to distribute over the development pipeline.

    Or is a great pick badly developed not a problem after all, because you can simply fire a different group of people? Now you’ve got great scouts, but it really sucks to be a coach boiling under a blind man’s log jam.

    Welcome to BPA Airlines[*], hope you enjoyed your flight. We never check the weather—we’re the straight arrow with the 100% track record that every controlled landing is right on time.

    [*] Best Path Available

  17. Travis Dakin says:

    Optimism is Foolish,

    Just watch the video on the Oilers website from the cooking class. You get a real reminder that these guys are just kids. So immature. It’s so easy to forget that when you see them on the ice, but outside of the rink they’re just kids.

  18. Travis Dakin says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Two of the organizations I’m talking about are the Rangers and Canucks. I’m not saying that they were completely hands off. Just shockingly more distant than I would have guessed. It seems so logical to put as much effort as you can into getting the absolute best out of your assets. Some kids figure it out on their own but so many more get left behind.

  19. Travis Dakin says:

    Scouts draft potential. It’s on the organization to maximize that potential when the scout’s job is done.

  20. supernova says:

    Thanks Lowetide for publishing the article.

    I have done the same work on Tampa Bay, Anahiem and part of the work on LA.
    I did most of this work Prior to 2014 draft.
    If people are interested in more of this either hit me up on Twitter or in this post.

    Once again thank you LT.

  21. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    Thanks Lowetide for publishing the article.

    I have done the same work on Tampa Bay, Anahiem and part of the work on LA.
    I did most of this work Prior to 2014 draft.
    If people are interested in more of this either hit me up on Twitter or in this post.

    Once again thank you LT.

    Thank you, sir!

  22. supernova says:

    David:
    Nicely done Supernova. Very interesting article. I never really had a problem with Stu and for the most part I liked his drafts a lot. What they were doing in 2014 boggles my mind but other than that I trust Stu. (Well if he stayed away from the BCHL)

    That said I’m a huge believer in Bob Green and find it perplexing that he has gotten lumped in with Tambellini, MacTavish, and Howsen as builders of our demise when he was only here for a year in the head scouting job. (Plus one year of college free agents).

    I loved the Jones and Bear picks this draft, both have top 4D potential. Good times ahead.

    I am also a huge Believer in Bob Green.
    If you are on Twitter you can look at my Twitter and there is conversation between wood guy and I about green.
    I have followed his work since the Oil Kings were re-introduced to us.
    I sincerely think that if the GM lets Green make the selection that we are in very good hands.

    Like LT I too love Bear. No issue with Jones, Marino was also a nice pick.

    I think when it came to the Jones selection and after Chia likely turned to Green and said “it’s your draft from here out make it count”

    I think Green was looking for picks that when development happens will be traded or inserted into the lineup to help the McDavid cluster.

  23. Bad Seed says:

    One bone of contention for me is the last paragraph where you say you wouldn’t have changed the GM if it were up to you. That’s blasphemy!

  24. raventalon40 says:

    supernova: I am also a huge Believer in Bob Green.
    If you are on Twitter you can look at my Twitter and there is conversation between wood guy and I about green.
    I have followed his work since the Oil Kings were re-introduced to us.
    I sincerely think that if the GM lets Green make the selection that we are in very good hands.

    Like LT I too love Bear. No issue with Jones, Marino was also a nice pick.

    I think when it came to the Jones selection and after Chia likely turned to Green and said “it’s your draft from here out make it count”

    I think Green was looking for picks that when development happens will be traded or inserted into the lineup to help the McDavid cluster.

    Great work Supernova. Look forward to reading more of your work in the future

  25. Mr. D. says:

    Travis Dakin,

    Not sure what team you are talking about. most teams supply workout programs for the summer that prepare the prospects for the development and main camps.

  26. gd says:

    One of the many reasons I am happy with the Chia/TMc hirings is with them coming from winning organizations they might have been privy to some different and hopefully better developmental plans for their players. One of the concerns with the OBC plus hiring guys only from Cbus and Toronto is we weren’t exposing ourselves to any ideas from a winning organization. I especially like having someone from San Jose as they seem to have a lot of guys have great +1 draft seasons.

    I find looking at old drafts fascinating as you realize even the top teams have tons of misses and headscratchers, but hitting on a Vatenan or a Benn in the 4th rd can really make a teams draft. In 2009 there are more quality D picked in the 4th round than the 2nd by quite a margin.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    Reposting from the previous thread.

    speeds: The only reason?Are you absolutely sure about that?

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/draft-week-post-12-blue-bullets-30/
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/9/25/2448121/2012-nhl-draft-top-30-consensus-list-bob-mckenzies-list-added

    Bag of Pucks: For me, actual value (where the player is drafted) trumps theoretical value (where the McKenzie list suggests the player should be drafted). But you definitely raise a good point in that advocates of the McKenzie list can point to this as rationale to support the overpay argument. Reinhart #8 on McKenzie’s list, Barzal #9. So why throw in the #33?

    The answer imo is the Oilers have to pay for a price for Reinhart’s development otherwise the Isles are essentially acting as the Oilers farm team and resetting the clock on their asset back to zero.

    The #33 is the price you pay to secure a more fully realized asset, avoid a bust, ensure the prospect is on track to their expected ceiling. You’re paying for a hedge, an insurance policy.

    By contrast, the risk for the Isles (and it’s a real one) is all the negatives that could happen to Barzal in the next 3 years (injury, failing to meet potential, etc. )

    There’s a price to be paid to acquire known quantities in exchange for unknown quantities and we can’t underrate that value. It’s the reason insider trading is a crime ; )

    GMoney pegged it right. The value was probably about a #40 for the sweetener. Given the underpay on Talbot, it seems like a wash to me.

    Given what he got for what he gave up, I don’t think Chiarelli hit just a home run on draft weekend. He hit for the cycle, McDavid being the home run obviously.

  28. Магия 10 says:

    speeds: clubs can’t walk away when they file for arbitration.

    I knew better. Thanks for catching that.

  29. David says:

    rickithebear: How the fu……… do you complain about Mact’s drafting?

    2013
    #7 Nurse
    #56 MOR
    #83 Yakimov Russia Jr G scorer like Kovi; Ovi; Semin; Malkin; Tarasenko
    #88 Slepyshev Ditto
    #94 Houck
    #96 Platzer .75 PPG at 20 AHL
    #113 Muir
    #128 Campbell
    #158 Betker
    #188 Chase

    2014
    #3 Draisatl
    #91 Lagesson SWE WJC @ 18
    #111 Nagel Vort Carer 1-20 SV% like Gillies ; Schnieder; Bishop; Elliot; Quick; Howard
    #130 Coughlin
    #153 Vesel
    #183 Bouchard

    Absolutely love the 2013 draft. 2014: I doubt we’ll get a single useful player other than Draisaitl. Lagesson is a maybe, and the picks after Nagelvort were not aiming at the right target.

  30. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Not sure if this is an option, but a global comment system might be better. You post too much, and I think it sometimes makes discussions choppy and underdeveloped.

    I also want to criticize this idea of the McDavid cluster. We always talked about a cluster being 5 years in span. That places McDavid at the edge of the Hall cluster. I know McDavid is our cornerstone, but he is the last piece of the rebuild, not the first. We have roughly nine years until Hall starts to be on the downswing by my calculations. It is at that point we will start creating a McDavid cluster by trading off the older pieces. Not to mention McDavid will be 27ish, and attracting ufas should be fairly easy. We have to continue to draft well, but to go out of our way to make a McDavid cluster is foolish. This year is sort of a recovery year, but we should be very competitive by 3AC(after connor).

    I also want to speak to the mass amount of people who are overrating the playoffs. It really isn’t that hard to make. Outside maybe the top 4 teams in each conference, you can pick out obvious holes in most any other playoff team. The problem is the oilers had major problems with depth scoring, defence and goaltending. From where I’m standing two of those have been addressed, and the third has been made less sucky. We should be expecting playoffs this year, and be disappointed if they are on the outside looking in.

    We are waiting on Nurse, Klefbom, and Reinhart on D. I have always been hard on Nurse, but I see a 1D now. Klef seems a good bet to be top pair (better than sekera). Reinhart could be top pair. That was a good trade. I was very leery of Barzal, and I think NYI got too excited when he fell. Everything Nurse has done, Reinhart has done as well, but with slightly less offence, and in a more defensive conference. I think he projects to top pair, but not quite as good as Klefbom. I take reinsert over nurse next year, since it gets us an extra rfa year on nurse, and he is further ahead. Nurse is really good at recovering due to his fantastic skating, but I think he still needs to shore up the defence before attacking the NHL’s speed. ELCs don’t matter anymore, it is all about rfa years now. Cap will go up, and if we can bridge some of these rfas, we should be able to keep the core intact. Big thing for this year is getting klefbom on a long term deal at a lower cap.

    Also have you noticed that the great ones always seem to come around at the perfect time? Crosby at the start of the new NHL. Gretz during the high scoring 80s. The league is trending towards speed now, and I think that fits this oil team to a T. Enjoy it now folks, these years will fly.

  31. Ryan says:

    Just around the time that I had thought Old CoppernBlue had completely lost its relevancy… Or at least had lost any reason for me to stop by… I came across this MacGregor draft analysis:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/22/8821723/csi-macgregor

    Anyways, make sure to check out the data in the comments section.

    My personal favorite analysis, so far, of the SMB years…

  32. raventalon40 says:

    This is waaaay off topic. But what ever happened to Guilliame Latendresse? He has the size, could make a great bottom 6 winger if we can dump Teddy Purcell

  33. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t think its very easy to compare a pretty good team like the Ducks to a terrible team like the Oilers. The Ducks had 0 top 10 picks, while the Oilers had 4 over that time frame. Is it really fair to include those picks? What kind of handicap do you give the Oilers that they were such a bad team that their prospects were far more likely to get time in the NHL than on the Ducks. How many games does Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen get on the Ducks team. How many games less does Tyler Pitlick play? What about Anton Lander? I really think any game Lander played before this season should be ineligible, because there is no way the ducks would have given him time. Does Paajarvi get more than a handful of games? Marincin might be just above a cup of coffee level of development until he hits the gym.

    Stu the average Bastard was ok, but trying to prove it by games played is full of flaws, IMO

  34. v4ance says:

    From the previous thread:

    speeds:
    v4ance,

    No one thinks all the bonuses will be hit, but they have to be accounted for under the cap.

    Also, AFAIK, the Calder is not one of the awards that can earn a player Schedule B bonuses, not from the team (there is a league bonus).

    From the capgeek FAQ, it mentions the Calder in passing as a Schedule B category:

    http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/
    However, a player and club may agree to any compensation for the Schedule B categories listed blow, provided the maximum aggregate amount does not exceed $2 million. That means up to $2 million can be earned by achieving just one Schedule B bonus criteria (ie. Calder Trophy win). Schedule B bonuses paid by the team count against the team’s salary cap.

    Also the TSN article, it mentions it explicitly:
    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/what-does-mcdavid-s-contract-look-like-1.324876
    Finishing in the Top 5 of any major league award (Hart, Byng, Selke, Calder, etc.) would trigger a specific bonus – paid by the league and not the Oilers. He could also have negotiated bonuses in excess of the league stipulated bonuses for those same awards.

    One further question.

    If a player wins the Calder in the first year of the ELC as a Schedule B bonus, does that mean he gets that bonus for all three years of his ELC?

    So for McDavid, if he wins the Calder and maxes all his Schedule A and B bonuses, he’ll get $3.775M ($925k base, $850k Schedule A bonuses, and $2 M Schedule B bonuses) this year.

    Next year and the year after does he get that Schedule B bonus for that Calder win? Or does he have to hit the other Schedule B bonuses for that extra cash ( Top 10 scoring, Top 3 for major award like Hart, Selke, or Richard) since he can’t win the Calder again?

  35. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer,

    Speaking of cup of coffee…

    I’m latte guy. I was just having a conversation with my wife about same.

    What’s the best/quickest home latte machine available for under $1500?

    Real milk is a requirement so too is speed…

  36. speeds says:

    from the CBA, Exhibit 5:
    League-wide Awards/Trophies. The following are the only awards or trophies for which Clubs and Players may negotiate bonuses: the Hart Memorial Trophy (“Hart”), the “Rocket” Richard Trophy (“Richard”), the Vezina Trophy (“Vezina”), the William Jennings Trophy (“Jennings”), the Norris Trophy (“Norris”), the Conn Smythe (“Conn Smythe”), and the Frank J. Selke Trophy (“Selke”). In the event that the National Hockey League creates additional award(s) of like stature in the future, Clubs may award bonuses to Players in connection therewith.

  37. speeds says:

    Exhibit 5.2.a.iv says:

    :
    (iv) A Player who finishes among the top three (3) in balloting for the Calder shall receive the following bonus amounts (no individually negotiated “excess” allowed): Winner $212,500 2nd $150,000 3rd $100,000

    the money referred to here is paid from the league to all players on ELC’s, it is not the same as the money negotiated between the player and the team, as I understand it.

  38. speeds says:

    I’m not saying those other sources are definitely wrong, I’m just posting what I see from the CBA, and it doesn’t seem to support it. Certainly possible I’m missing something.

  39. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    The Oilers overall weren’t terrible but I also think they had better odds because they pick at the front end of rounds, which makes their record worse than it is.

    They did make some awful, poorly thought out picks, players with no chance of helping. But that seems to have been on the GM as MacT tidied that up. They also have put a lot of resources into development which apparently was started by Tambellini, and he got the lower levels off of life support.

    Like so often in life, all of these flawed fellows contributed to where the team stands today. Elites are rare in any occupation at any level. That the Oilers had to bumble their way here is pretty normal, this draft comparison does indicate that.

    What we have to hold hope in is that those running it now do a better than average job and don’t screw up their incredible good fortune, to walk into bright sunshine in what has been a shitstorm for two decades. No pressure 🙂

  40. FTO says:

    Ryan:
    leadfarmer,

    Speaking of cup of coffee…

    I’m latte guy.I was just having a conversation with my wife about same.

    What’s the best/quickest home latte machine available for under $1500?

    Real milk is a requirement so too is speed…

    On the low end of your cost scale there are Nespresso machines, super fast and great lattes/espressos. I love mine anyways.

  41. David says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t think its very easy to compare a pretty good team like the Ducks to a terrible team like the Oilers.The Ducks had 0 top 10 picks, while the Oilers had 4 over that time frame.Is it really fair to include those picks?What kind of handicap do you give the Oilers that they were such a bad team that their prospects were far more likely to get time in the NHL than on the Ducks.How many games does Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen get on the Ducks team.How many games less does Tyler Pitlick play?What about Anton Lander?I really think any game Lander played before this season should be ineligible, because there is no way the ducks would have given him time.Does Paajarvi get more than a handful of games?Marincin might be just above a cup of coffee level of development until he hits the gym.

    Stu the average Bastard was ok, but trying to prove it by games played is full of flaws, IMO

    I don’t like games played or points scored as a measure either. For all the reasons often stated.

    I think you have to look at each player individually as a pass or fail. Some players don’t need analysis eg: Eberle good, Abney bad, Klefbom good (it is too soon to officially call it but in a year or two he will solidify what we already know) Hesketh bad.

    The difficulty is how do you separate identifying talent from coaching, quality of linemates, injuries, rushed into NHL? If Sam Gagner and Magnus Paajaarvi were placed on the slow track would they be more complete better players? If Alex Plante never got any concussions would he have become a top 4 defenseman?

    Even harder to determine is should the scouts be graded solely on successes or do they deserve props for fishing from the right pond? If Marincin never pans out do we grade that pick as a fail? Or do we say “I like that they targeted a player with Marincins tools and that those skills are what they are aiming for, this is a player with a real shot at making it can we blame the scouts for Marincin not putting it together?”

  42. v4ance says:

    speeds:
    I’m not saying those other sources are definitely wrong, I’m just posting what I see from the CBA, and it doesn’t seem to support it.Certainly possible I’m missing something.

    From the way I read the verbage from capgeek and TSN, the default Schedule B bonuses do not cover the Calder explicitly like it covers the other major awards.

    But the club and the player can negotiate a contract with Schedule B bonuses which is NOT paid for by the league but is paid by the club if the player wins or is in contention for a major award like the Calder or the Hart.

    Most teams do not openly report the bonus language on each ELC so we don’t know how it will affect the cap down to the dollar *sigh*

  43. rickithebear says:

    David: Absolutely love the 2013 draft. 2014: I doubt we’ll get a single useful player other than Draisaitl. Lagesson is a maybe, and the picks after Nagelvort were not aiming at the right target.

    Davai
    Nagel vort had regression under Chabot.
    A bounce back when chabot was fired.
    but his 18-20 year numbers puts him in an exclusive group
    Demko
    Gillies
    Hellenbucyk
    Bishop
    Elliott
    Quick;
    Schnieder
    Howard.
    If he rack .920 in AHL that means he performed like this exclusive group.
    Not to be a starter would go against current trend.

    Lagesson
    The peer list for 18 year old SWE WJC Dmen 6’+ or first round.
    Englund #40 2014
    Lagesson #91 2014
    Hagg #41 2013
    Arnesson #60 2012
    Brodin #10 2011
    Klefbom #19 2011
    A. larsson #4 2011
    Klinberg #13 2010
    Nemeth #41 2010
    OEL #6 2009
    Erixson #23 2009
    Andersson #153 2009
    Hedmannn #2 2009
    Rundblad #17 2009
    E. Karlsson #15 2008
    Motin #103 2008 14-15 (24) 6’2″ 220lb top 6 SHL +/-
    Stralmann #216 2005
    J. Franson #34 2004
    Kronwall #29 2000
    Backman #24 1998
    Tallinder #48 1997
    Damn fine peer list!
    Lagesson better be good!

    Watched Frozen Four Semi and Vesel ws referred to in a trio that helped drive the success.
    Now from camp we Here he is a defensive Beauty.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=773964

  44. Travis Dakin says:

    Mr. D.:
    Travis Dakin,

    Not sure what team you are talking about. most teams supply workout programs for the summer that prepare the prospects for the development and main camps.

    Yeah, like I said, they aren’t completely hands off. But they don’t follow up as much as you’d expect. My friend’s brothers were with the Rangers and Canucks orgs. They said they would call to check up on them once a month or so to see how they are doing and to keep in touch. But there was no one having a direct day-to-day influence on their development aside from their junior coach or billets. Then, when they got to the AHL, all they got was some half-assed guidance.

    I just would have expected a more finely tuned development program. More attention paid to getting the most possible out of prospects.

  45. Really? says:

    I believe draft results can be affected by one factor which does not often get mentioned. That is when BPA is no longer relevant. A case in point theoretically being the Oilers today. Assuming they currently have really good depth at Center on the Oilers and Condors, if they choose to draft a center, how could that center possibly be developed properly when they don’t even have a slot for him in Edmonton or Bakersfield. A similar problem could arise if the Oilers were over stocked with D men.

    I guess my question is, “Is there a limit on a franchise’s ability to develop assets (i.e. centers or D men) and when is it reached?”

    Would appreciate some feedback.

  46. David says:

    Really?:
    I believe draft results can be affected by one factor which does not often get mentioned. That is when BPA is no longer relevant. A case in point theoretically being the Oilers today. Assuming they currently have really good depth at Center on the Oilers and Condors, if they choose to draft a center, how could that center possibly be developed properly when they don’t even have a slot for him in Edmonton or Bakersfield. A similar problem could arise if the Oilers were over stocked with D men.

    I guess my question is, “Is there a limit on a franchise’s ability to develop assets (i.e. centers or D men) and when is it reached?”

    Would appreciate some feedback.

    I

    I don’t believe in selecting BPA other than when elite players are still on the board. So after the top 5 or in some drafts top 10 BPA becomes irrelevant because the players are no longer “sure bets” and even so you are only passing on players that are found all over the place.

    If we accept your proposal then Barzal would fit into that scenario would he not?

  47. supernova says:

    spoiler:
    Very nice analysis, Supernova.

    Drafting is so hard to suss, takes years of comparisons to eliminate the “luck” factor.

    And it is equally difficult to discern the effect of management on selections.

    And having two more picks work out changes you from average to very good.

    And then there’s injuries and development.

    I think Stu et alii were average, and certainly not awful.But there are a couple of misses that look bad and that’s where the narrative lies.

    David,

    Agree with you completely.

    Lets say Lander or Harti worked out on their first chance in the NHL, Stu and his teams drafting record also get looked at in a different light.

    it is also changes the needs of pro personnel and player additions.

    If you dont have to sign Belanger or Gordon because Lander hit right away there is cap savings and bullets in the GM’s chamber.

    The draft should be a patient crapshoot.

  48. supernova says:

    Professor Q:
    So, I take it Supernova would have been in favour of keeping all of the top-50 picks in this most recent draft as well?

    Or would certain trades make up for that top-50 threshold?

    Obviously many things have to be taken I to consideration, too.

    Great post!

    Professor Q,

    You correct I treat top 50 picks like gold (keep in mind different depths of draft).

    I have no issue with Griffin Reinhart the player, i would have acquired him differently mind you.
    I do think he will be an excellent addition.

    as many bullets as i can in the first two rounds is what i would do.

  49. supernova says:

    sliderule:
    Kind of looks like there is a little cherry picking the years as 2007 was a KP draft.

    There have been numerous analysis showing that the Stu era while not Pens bad was in a solid bottom third of the NHL.

    It doesn’t matter now as Stu is gone and a couple of scouts were fired.

    We will get a hintin the next couple of drafts whether the new regime is any better at scouting.

    Likelowetides always says we have to wait five years for the final mark

    sliderule,

    Cherry Picking?

    i was trying to give the 5 years. I actually wrote this post one year ago but i don’t have a blog.

    It was direct comparative analysis to a team highly regarded for drafting.

    Including the 2007 actually makes the Oilers look worse.

    3 – 1sts in 2007 that are all in a state of flux. not sure how that is cherry picking.

  50. supernova says:

    raventalon40: Great work Supernova. Look forward to reading more of your work in the future

    raventalon40,

    thank you

  51. supernova says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t think its very easy to compare a pretty good team like the Ducks to a terrible team like the Oilers.The Ducks had 0 top 10 picks, while the Oilers had 4 over that time frame.Is it really fair to include those picks?What kind of handicap do you give the Oilers that they were such a bad team that their prospects were far more likely to get time in the NHL than on the Ducks.How many games does Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen get on the Ducks team.How many games less does Tyler Pitlick play?What about Anton Lander?I really think any game Lander played before this season should be ineligible, because there is no way the ducks would have given him time.Does Paajarvi get more than a handful of games?Marincin might be just above a cup of coffee level of development until he hits the gym.

    Stu the average Bastard was ok, but trying to prove it by games played is full of flaws, IMO

    leadfarmer,

    actually this is exactly why i went down this path.

    there is a follow up companion piece about Development if LT chooses to publish that also digs into development.

    The reason i chose Anaheim was because they were touted as the best or one of the best.

    I actually wanted to learn what the best do if possible.

    I wasnt sure i learnt alot after looking at draft records so i dug into development models abit.

  52. supernova says:

    Rip Fan Winkle:
    The Oilers overall weren’t terrible but I also think they had better odds because they pick at the front end of rounds, which makes their record worse than it is.

    They did make some awful, poorly thought out picks, players with no chance of helping. But that seems to have been on the GM as MacT tidied that up. They also have put a lot of resources into development which apparently was started by Tambellini, and he got the lower levels off of life support.

    Like so often in life, all of these flawed fellows contributed to where the team stands today. Elites are rare in any occupation at any level. That the Oilers had to bumble their way here is pretty normal, this draft comparison does indicate that.

    What we have to hold hope in is that those running it now do a better than average job and don’t screw up their incredible good fortune, to walk into bright sunshine in what has been a shitstorm for two decades. No pressure

    Rip Fan Winkle,

    I agree EIG left a mess.

    Tambellini helped to right the ship.
    MacT did a few good things.

    the main issue isnt they didnt do enough in their time period.

  53. supernova says:

    Really?:
    I believe draft results can be affected by one factor which does not often get mentioned. That is when BPA is no longer relevant. A case in point theoretically being the Oilers today. Assuming they currently have really good depth at Center on the Oilers and Condors, if they choose to draft a center, how could that center possibly be developed properly when they don’t even have a slot for him in Edmonton or Bakersfield. A similar problem could arise if the Oilers were over stocked with D men.

    I guess my question is, “Is there a limit on a franchise’s ability to develop assets (i.e. centers or D men) and when is it reached?”

    Would appreciate some feedback.

    Really?,

    David,

    BPA tends to be subjective after the first 10 or 20 picks.

    some tend to view a RH offensive Dman as the BPA because that player is hard to find.

    I think you have to trust your scouts.

    You simply work your scouts list.

    When people speak of the “detroit model” it tends to be from the perspective of development not drafting.

    Detroit has been seemingly able to replace Federov & Yzerman with Datysuk & Zetterberg can they do so again?

    is there a limit on development? i think that depends on Organizations goals if they continue to move along players on the big club there will always be development time, but not moving them along could crimp the system.

  54. David says:

    supernova: Really?,

    David,

    BPA tends to be subjective after the first 10 or 20 picks.

    some tend to view a RH offensive Dman as the BPA because that player is hard to find.

    I think you have to trust your scouts.

    You simply work your scouts list.

    When people speak of the “detroit model” it tends to be from the perspective of development not drafting.

    Detroit has been seemingly able to replace Federov & Yzerman with Datysuk & Zetterberg can they do so again?

    is there a limit on development? i think that depends on Organizations goals if they continue to move along players on the big club there will always be development time, but not moving them along could crimp the system.

    I think the ideal system is to have your team almost entirely made up of drafted and developed players. One or two astute trades and stay away from that free agent insanity. Every single year a team should have Pitlicks (healthy Pitlicks) and Millers ready to fill the bottom six on the cheap. Player X wants a big raise? Trade him and replace within. Edmonton’s problem is that in 2000-2007 or later they weren’t drafting Chases and klefbom’s and reiders and Marincins

  55. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ryan:
    leadfarmer,

    Speaking of cup of coffee…

    I’m latte guy.I was just having a conversation with my wife about same.

    What’s the best/quickest home latte machine available for under $1500?

    Real milk is a requirement so too is speed…

    Saeco is awesome. Talea Giro should be just what you need. Get the optional milk island if you are lazy, although for speed I prefer the old fashioned way. Easy maintenance, grinds your beans for you for each cup fresh, and comes in at half your budget. Can’t go wrong.

  56. JJ says:

    leadfarmer,

    Speaking of cup of coffee…

    I’m latte guy.I was just having a conversation with my wife about same.

    What’s the best/quickest home latte machine available for under $1500?

    Real milk is a requirement so too is speed…

    —————————————————————————————-

    https://ca.jura.com/en/homeproducts/machines

    I have had a Jura Impressa F50 for years and it is awesome.
    The newer models are even more automatic.

    Variable cost of coffee beans per cup of coffee is 25 to 30 cents last time I calculated and I buy expensive espresso beans.

    If you like coffee, then save your nickels to buy one.
    It pays for itself if you buy a latte each morning.

    National Cappuccino carries them and will demonstrate them for you.
    http://www.nationalcappuccino.com/browser.php?type=Residential&product=Espresso+Machines

    Enjoy!

  57. supernova says:

    David: I think the ideal system is to have your team almost entirely made up of drafted and developed players. One or two astute trades and stay away from that free agent insanity. Every single year a team should have Pitlicks (healthy Pitlicks) and Millers ready to fill the bottom six on the cheap. Player X wants a big raise? Trade him and replace within. Edmonton’s problem is that in 2000-2007 or later they weren’t drafting Chases and klefbom’s and reiders and Marincins

    David,

    Look at the current Ducks lineup almost 0 free agent pickups, either draft and develop or trade.
    Chicago has a few more FA pick ups
    Tampa very strong on draft & develop followed by trade and the odd signing.
    New York is now mostly trade and draft.

    The final 4 teams very lightly In the free agent market.

    The 2000-07 or later Oilers weren’t drafting many.
    Also look at their farm team and model and you will see why the teams from 08 and after lacked any semblance of depth.

    Poor drafting, and no money into development.

  58. RexLibris says:

    supernova,

    Nice work. Anything draft-related I find interesting.

    I think you and I were thinking the same thing.

    I did a major review of draft picks a few years ago that went back to 1979. Anaheim stood out as well as Buffalo and Montreal as teams that have fairly consistently found a greater-than-average percentage of NHL players.

    I did quickly come to the conclusion that any analysis needed to parse the process between scouting, development, and talent recognition by management as there were many instances of a player being derailed by poor development despite strong draft pedigree, players being consistently developed regardless of draft pedigree, and players being traded away prior to their becoming notable NHL players despite a consistent performance by the scouting and drafting network by that team.

    If you are interested I can send you the data (warning: it is a very large xls file and the data was gathered and calculated by hand, so no formulas for easy alteration and such, making it rather cumbersome. I also chose to embargo drafts up to 2009 in keeping with the 5-year rule and haven’t updated it recently).

    Anyone interested can message me on twitter (I’ll promise to check it this week) and I’d be happy to pass it along.

  59. RexLibris says:

    supernova: Rip Fan Winkle,

    I agree EIG left a mess.

    Tambellini helped to right the ship.
    MacT did a few good things.

    the main issue isnt they didnt do enough in their time period.

    Exactly.

    EIG’s experience reminds me of the old story about the Bank of Canada during the 80s interest rates. They cured the disease but nearly killed the patient.

    EIG saved the Oilers but left them crippled for a decade after.

    Tambellini did good things with the development plan. His drafting focus was atrocious and his trading…well, when he did it at all it rarely worked out.

    But investing in development is something he did well. I recall a story from 2010 where they were talking to a prospect who said that he was getting almost daily calls from Sillinger at the time following up on how he was doing and his performance in the most recent games, sometimes with a level of information and detail that stunned him. He appreciated it and said it made him feel like he was an Oiler before he’d even made the team.

    It didn’t make the prospect a player, obviously, but it was a hell of a lot better than loaning him to Wilkes-Barre and begging another NHL team’s farm coach for ice time.

    People criticize the Oilers for being unable to find NHL talent outside of 1st overall picks and that the Flames and others have leapfrogged them in the rebuild. When you consider that the only notable pick outside of the 2nd round that the Oilers have had in a decade is Jeff Petry and that the entire 2007 draft class, which included three 1st round picks, have to some extent washed out (jury’s out on Gagner) it begins to come into focus just how moribund this franchise was.

    The rot was so deep they couldn’t even save the studs.

    That they’ve spent the last five years spinning their wheels hasn’t helped.

    If they can sort out the development process they will take an enormous step forward.

    Drafting gets you the prospects.

    Development gets you the players.

  60. jm363561 says:

    Drafting gets you the prospects. Development gets you the players.

    I like this almost as much as “Beer, it’s not just for breakfast”.

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