IT’S JUST A JUMP TO THE LEFT

When I was young, there was a man about the size Leon Draisaitl is now who patrolled the portside for the Torontos when they were good. He was a monster for the era, had good speed and a mammoth shot, and he scared the daylights out of the opposition. When he was a younger man—this is before my time—he would patrol his wing, score goals, hammer and crash, and if he got knocked down, he’d smile, get up, and do it again (source: Howie Meeker). He was basically Curtis Lazar on 35 goals a year, for about 20 years.

I don’t think Leon Draisaitl is going to be Frank Mahovlich, but there’s zero reason to expect he’ll flop on the wing. His speed—much like that of Big Frank—is often mentioned as a weakness, when in fact it’s an illusion. The little man, in my mind’s eye it’s Tie Domi and his ‘I’m passing a kidney stone’ choppy stride, looks like he’s a speed demon. The bigger man looks slower but passes more houses with each stride, and that’s Leon. Speed won’t be his problem, passing won’t be his problem, in fact his only problem making the opening night roster will be bonus dollars—Edmonton is probably going to send him down for 20 games, more if they want that UFA season to kick in one year later (as speeds reported). When he arrives, clear the track. Leon Draisaitl is going to have a helluva career.

Here’s a guy I can’t see spending much time in Bakersfield, if any at all. Brian King (PDO) posted an interesting item yesterday afternoon in the comments section:

  • PDO: I’ve been looking for a Nurse comparable and (albeit hopefully) a comparable that could lead us to believe he can contribute as a top 4 NHL D next year right out of the box.I think I found him.

PIETRANGELO V. NURSE (VIA PDO)

  • Nurse comes in an inch taller but with a similar lanky build.
  • Alex Pietrangelo was taken 4th OV in 2008 vs Darnell Nurse 7th OV in 2013 so they have a very similar pedigree.
  • Pietrangelo famously was held on the Blues roster to practice until the WJC so the numbers are hard to project perfectly, but here are the junior box cars:
  • Piet draft year:60 GP 13 G 40
  • Nurse draft year: 68 GP 12 G 29 A
  • Piet draft +1 36 GP 8 G 21 A
  • Nurse draft +1 64 GP 13G 37 A
  • Piet draft +2 25 GP 9G 20 A
  • Nurse draft +2 36 GP 10 G 23 A

So we can see Pietrangelo is bringing a shade more offense, but not a ton more either. So now lets take a look at what Pietrangelo did as a rookie at the same age Nurse is now..

  • Boxcars: 79 GP 11 G 32 A
  • Fancies: Qual Comp: .673 (third, just barely); Zone Start: 56.2 (5th, but three guys in the range… Jackman and Polak were buried and everyone else played the same); Corsi: 10.81 (First)

So he looks like he played 2nd pairing but KILLED it.  Lets look at the WOWY’s:

  • 58.4 % GF 54.4 CF %
  • He played a bit with everyone….
  • With Jackman: 52.9 % GF and 54.8 CF % in 448 minutes.
  • Jackman without: 47.4 % GF and 47.6 CF % in his remaining 584 minutes.
  • With Colaiacovo: 69.2 % GF (!!!) and 55.1 CF% in 358 minutes.
  • Colaiacovo without Piet: 32.5 % GF and 50.4 CF % in 589 minutes.

So right out of the box Pietrangelo came in, was arguably the best defenseman on the team and had gone through a similar career path as Nurse has up to this point. Is it blue skying? Sure. Is it too much to think it could happen here? I don’t think so. It’s not impossible for Nurse to come in out of the box and be a good top 4 defenseman.

End PDO.

Absolutely smoked. That’s an 18-year old junior who is chasing 97, but then again McDavid’s the same age. Unreal speed, can’t believe we’re early July and the whole town can’t wait for October. Madness!

IS PC DONE?

I think the club may tinker in three areas: Backup goalie (replacing Scrivens), defense (Chiarelli is aggressive and the market may gift him a Christian Ehrhoff, depending on how things go) and a physical, skilled forward with speed (Glencross, that sort of player) again if the market allows. The Oilers have very little room (depending on Justin Schultz’ contract) but if they add a player at any of these positions then it follows someone will be dropped or traded. Here’s a quick look at current conditions:

updated roster july 6So let’s take my three examples above and apply them to this roster (which is at $69,032,000 and includes estimates on Justin Schultz and Tyler Pitlick). If Chiarelli grabs a goaltender and offloads Scrivens, the current cap room should be sufficient. If he acquires Ehrhoff at $3.5M (let’s say) then Nikitin or Ference will have to go. If he grabs Glencross for $2.5M, we’re probably looking at something major—sending Gazdic down isn’t going to get that done in my opinion. The roster has holes for sure, but has some nice options too—including young Darnell Nurse who may indeed be the answer to the question ‘who in hell plays top 4D besides Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom?’ in what may become the ‘child shall lead them all’ winter in Edmonton.

STILL AVAILABLE

 

  • Cody Franson, D. I’m surprised he’s available, would love to have him if EDM is moving on from Schultz.
  • Christian Ehrhoff, D. The only concern for me is injury. He would be a fabulous add at this point.
  • Curtis Glencross, LW. Oilers have been adding speed all summer, Glencross isn’t as fast as he was but would be an upgrade on someone like Teddy Purcell (in terms of skating). Can PK too, and is rugged. A nice possible fit.
  • Matt Irwin, D. Nice numbers, he’d be familiar with McLellan.
  • Lubomir Visnovsky, D. Why not? He’s 38 but can still wheel. I’d love to see him back here.

One final item: Don’t discount a trade. Chiarelli does have some moves he can make to add quality if it comes available.

LOWETIDE’S CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Draft McDavid and sign him (Done)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (Cam Talbot)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
  4. Sign a two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for real value) (Eric Gryba)
  6. Veteran two-way center (Mark Letestu)

I’ve been writing these damn lists for years and Chiarelli is the first GM to cross them all off. As we’ve discussed, when you have six things to do in a summer, you’re not going to hit a home run on every bet. That said, the additions of Talbot and Sekera look like “A” fixes (or have the potential) from here and I’m thrilled they finally acquired a Pisani this summer. That’s a golden item, really. I didn’t hate Ryan Jones or Lenny Petrell but their skill sets (goals from one, PK and pure ginger from the other) don’t fit the Pisani role. Fernando Pisani mentored a bunch of young Oilers and Korpikoski could have enormous impact on the careers of Draisaitl, Lander and others. Letestu seems a reasonable bet and a guy they can move around once Leon establishes himself and Lander moves into the 4C/PK role. I hope there’s some moves to come (a top blue) but that relies heavily on another team wanting to do something and Edmonton being able to supply the parts. We wait.

JOHANSSON

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s the first Monday of the signed McDavid era, so the sun is shining and good days await! Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. A look at the week’s signings, McDavid’s impact and arbitration.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. An insane game in Fort Mac has the Eddies moving up the table and I wonder if we’ll EVER see Laing in our city again?
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. We’ll talk about McDavid’s best fit for linemates and some other roster options.
  • Bob Weeks, TSN. Rory McIlroy looks like he’ll miss the British open after suffering an ankle injury. In a “soccer kickabout” according to his Instagram.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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151 Responses to "IT’S JUST A JUMP TO THE LEFT"

  1. PhrankLee says:

    Leon to the wing is a great idea.

    The new kid is going to take tons of pressure off of him and he could just, maybe, hopefully be deployed

    in a way that compliments his development instead of what we are so used to.

  2. square_wheels says:

    Where are we fitting Leon on that depth chart if he’s playing wing ???

    I still don’t like the balance up front but it’s just one more year, patience Chia.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    Tampa Bay has too many dmen and a cap problem, I would like PC to explore helping them out of that mess.

    Stay away from Franson he is going to need 3-4 years of term to sign here and we don’t really know how good he is?

  4. square_wheels says:

    Matthias 1yr deal for 2.3 in Toronto, could play up the depth chart and be intriguing deadline return.

    Thought he’d find something longer in term.

  5. Bryan says:

    I only saw the Big M play in Montreal so he was on the back nine by then but still fun to watch. He liked to circle back in his end a little bit like Hemsky to build up some speed and then if he got the puck in full flight he was a tough man to stop gliding down the left wing. I don’t think that Leon has the same graceful flair that Frank did but his stride is definitely powerful and deceiving. I think that until defence men around the league get used to him he will be on top of them and by them much quicker than they were expecting.

  6. Kris11 says:

    What are the pros and cons of moving CMD to the wing instead of LD?

    Pro: LD probably can handle defensive responsibility against big Western conference centers down low.

    Pro: CMD’s speed on the wing would be super valuable.

    Pro: CMD could learn the pro game without having to worry about the difficult defensive responsibility that comes with playing C.

    Con: Asking an 18 year old to play out of the position he knows best could hurt his game. We don’t want to risk doing that to CMD.

    Con: Hall or Pouliot would be good matches to play with CMD and they are both LW’s, so you couldn’t play them with CMD if he was moved to LW.

    I’m not sure though.

  7. Pouzar says:

    From Matt Henderson:

    Leon Draisaitl: Wasn’t on the ice with Nurse or McDavid but he was hands down the best player in his group. He looked like a man among boys and was clearly the alpha dog in the group. In all of the puck protection drills he was an unstoppable force. There was nothing anyone could do to take the disc away from him. His passing ability is sublime and his shot is going to catch a lot of people off guard. The area of concern (for some reason) that people have for him has been his skating.

    I cannot, for any reason, figure out why so many people are concerned about Draisaitl’s skating. In the Oilers skills competition last year he was the fastest on NHL club. At the development camp he was again showing his wheels. On many drills it looked like he was fired out of a cannon. I think there are people who saw the way he slowed the game down and assumed he was doing something inherently wrong. It is not the case that all players must skate at a single speed (full acceleration) all the time. Draisaitl is an exciting prospect because he CAN turn on the jets when he wants to but uses his hockey IQ to modulate his speed.

  8. Woodguy says:

    I have a feeling that the roster questions won’t be answered until September. (i.e. one or more of Nikitin/Ference/Purcell traded with salary retained etc.)

    If a trade (an actual trade, not a salary dump move) is coming it will probably be this month or August.

    We’re going to tie ourselves in knots with the various permutations of the roster and the cap implications therein.

    Ahhhh, summer.

  9. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Those shoulders sure do make him a difficult guy to get leverage on, if he can find some chemistry with Yak we might see 3 “pairs” that no team can match.

    Hall-CMD
    RNH-Ebs
    yak- drai

    Seriously – that’s terrifying.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I have a feeling that the roster questions won’t be answered until September. (i.e. one or more of Nikitin/Ference/Purcell traded with salary retained etc.)If a trade (an actual trade, not a salary dump move) is coming it will probably be this month or August.We’re going to tie ourselves in knots with the various permutations of the roster and the cap implications therein.Ahhhh, summer.

    This. Gonna do my best to chill and report back when there’s actual news. I’m frickin obsessed.

  11. Kmart99 says:

    Haven’t been this excessively lumped every day since 2010.

    Hall and Ebs didn’t have any high end talent to shelter them.

    Kane and Toews had great vets for support, as did Crosby.

    CMD, NURSE, LEON are coming in with way more support than did Hall,Ebs,MPS that fatefull spring and I for one am overly optimistic about our chances. I like the gosling, I like the Fs, and I only mildly hate the D(and that can change in a hurry if Nurse and Reinhart exceed expectations).

    I like the Piet comp, especially because they are both fantastic skaters but I think Nurse is basically a hybrid between Pietrangelo and Phaneuf.

    He is physical and mean like Phaneuf, has the same NHLE P/G average over his draft+1 at draft +2 as Phaneuf at .25, but is a taller smoother skater similar to Pietrangelo.

    Nurse had a better NHLE at draft +1 than Phaneuf, but worse at Draft +2 because of the addition of Deangelo causing him to lose all the PP time and OZSs.

    (Phaneuf+Piet)/2 = Darnell Nurse. It’s math.

  12. speeds says:

    lowetide, from the article:
    I’ve been writing these damn lists for years and Chiarelli is the first GM to cross them all off.

    I’m not sure if he really crossed them all off, or if you did.

    1, 2, 3 and 6, sure.

    4 he did acquire Korpikoski, but it was at the expense of Gordon

    5 Marincin doesn’t square with what you meant, or at least what I thought you meant.

  13. speeds says:

    Pouzar: This. Gonna do my best to chill and report back when there’s actual news. I’m frickin obsessed.

    Today is a potential news day. If the Oilers do look to open a second buyout window, the deadline for club elected arbitration is at 3pm EDM time today, IIRC.

  14. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    If big makes you look slow, why do Nurse and Klefbom look fast?

    The issue is less about top speed than it is acceleration. Or to put it in words most of us can understand, Draisaitl has a lot of power but is lacking torque.

  15. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Kris11: Con: Asking an 18 year old to play out of the position he knows best could hurt his game. We don’t want to risk doing that to CMD.

    Crosby played wing in his first season, didn’t he?

  16. Kmart99 says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    If big makes you look slow, why do Nurse and Klefbom look fast?

    Because they are insane. Especially Nurse.

  17. Kmart99 says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: Crosby played wing in his first season, didn’t he?

    I don’t think so, without checking I remember him sucking at face offs that year, so he must’ve been a centre for at least a good chunk.

  18. Bryan says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    If big makes you look slow, why do Nurse and Klefbom look fast?

    The issue is less about top speed than it is acceleration.Or to put it in words most of us can understand, Draisaitl has a lot of power but is lacking torque.

    I think it’s perception more than anything. You don’t win the fastest skater title if you are a slow starter.

  19. DBO says:

    This year is going to fun, next year should be amazing. One interesting thing with the younger AHL guys who played in the KHL or in men’s leagues across the pond, they have a better sense of the physicality of playing against older men. The AHL is a great league, but the KHL grads may be ready sooner based on experience against men.

    Hall-McD-Lander
    Pouliot-Nuge-Ebs
    Slepeshev-Drai-Yak
    Letestu-Yakimov-Korpikoski

    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Klef (he played RD at the worlds)
    Reinhart-Schultz/Ference/someone who can play the PP

    I think Lander has more skil then we give him credit for and showed last year and in the World’s he can play with high end players and the dynamic Duo of Hall and McDavid could use someone who can get greasy in the corners and has a defensive conscience. That 2nd line can play anywhere against anyone, and will feast on 2nd pairing Dmen. The 3rd line may need some sheltering, but man will they be fun to watch. The 4th line can play in any zone, but importantly can take a lot of D zone draws.

    yes that is still a young lineup, but holy heck is that a lot of talent, and dare I say balance up front and a solid top 4 on D.

  20. Woodguy says:

    ITS JUST A JUMP TO THE LEFT

    And then a step to the right.

  21. Kmart99 says:

    DBO,

    There is no way Lander moves from 3C to 1RW…. Not sure that makes any sense.

  22. Really? says:

    DBO,

    I really like the line up you have put forward. To me the key is the maturation of Draisaitl and Nurse. They are the wild cards. If they make the jump effectively opposing teams will have nightmares trying to defend against all three offensive lines.

    As most teams think in terms of “pairs” when constructing lines, the Oilers have the opportunity to overmatch almost any opponents.

    However things develop, 2015-2016 will be entertaining.

  23. Kris11 says:

    Here’s a weird but possible lineup:

    CMD – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Lander – Purcell
    Hall – Drai – Yakupov
    Hendricks -Letestu – Korp

  24. rickithebear says:

    GF% and CF% is the same whether it is Taylor hall Getting the chances/Goals or Gazdic Chances/goals.

    Nope.

    That is why GA/60 and CA/60 are the baseline for D.
    Not a %
    That does not reflect the Base line or the Differential

    Pietrangrelo”
    19yr 09-10
    9gm (3rd/4th) 59.01 CA/60
    20yr 10-11
    79gm (1st/2nd) 48.9 CA/60

    Nurse
    19 yr 14-15
    2gm (3rd/4th) 39.41
    20 yr
    too small a sample.

    But With PC Speak saying
    Sekera 2nd Pair
    Are they thinking of giving Nurse 1st/2nd/3rd like Petrangelo @20

  25. Stanley 2018 says:

    The really interesting thing is, it’s possible an Ehrhoff or a Franson could end up having to sign a 1-yr deal this season if they can’t get the $$/term they want. Now, while the Oilers can’t exactly woo them with SC contention, there’s a ton of excitement and the team is going to get huge exposure this year. That may be enough to get one of these guys and punch our ticket into the- and I can’t believe I’m saying this- Playoffs.

  26. Drew says:

    Kmart99,

    KMART 99, lumped, you need to get those checked out now. Hurry for goodness sakes!

    Seriously though, the best comp I can think of for Nurse is a young Larry Robinson. Big very mobile, fantastic skater, I believe that he will have some good offensive chops but it will be his ability to play big minutes and then recover (for himself) and others on the ice that will be his calling card. I also believe he will develop an attitude of “not in my house” and be a quiet intimidator and score settler on the ice for the whole team.

    “The future is so bright (I gotta wear shades)”

  27. GCW_69 says:

    Boy, wouldn’t it have been nice had the Oilers bought out Nikitin, not brought in Korpse, and instead got Chris Stewart on a one year deal?

    Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle

    Hall – McDavid – Stewart

    Purcell – Lander – Yakupov

    Hendricks – Letestu – Klinkhammer/Pitlick

    Or, alternatively:

    Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle

    Hall – Lander – Stewart

    Purcell – McDavid- Yakupov (butter soft minutes)

    Hendricks – Letestu – Klinkhammer/Pitlick

    Three legit scoring lines either way…

    Assuming Stewart would sign a one year deal, I wonder if they could trade Hendricks and put Korpse in his place. Hendricks only has two years left on his deal and his World Championships performance should generate some trade interest.

  28. zatch says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, this is where you always go off the rails. Defencemen’s offence matters. Your dismissal of possession for metrics because you don’t trust how they account for who is getting the chances has a touch of merit, but you throw out the baby with the bathwater by basically determining that offence by defence counts for nothing. As if a goal by Sekera is worth .2 goals in the scoreline. Hockey scores are NOT determined by who did what relative to their position, they are determined by who outscored who.

    Your defencemen are only allowed to be measured by defence position becomes more ludicrous when you also decide that GA/60 is a super useful statistic. You’ve been called out on this before, and refused to address it. Not all goalies are created equal. Your math assumes there is no difference between Price and a literal bag of sand.

    tl;dr You refuse to count offence because of team mate quality issues, but then ignore that completely and put your money down on it on the defensive side. This is what leads you to bizarre conclusions like Keith Aulie and Eric Gryba are actually super studs.

  29. Wonder Llama says:

    Woodguy:
    ITS JUST A JUMP TO THE LEFT

    And then a step to the right.

    With your puck on your stick.

  30. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    GF% and CF% is the same whether it is Taylor hall Getting the chances/Goals or Gazdic Chances/goals.

    Nope.

    That is why GA/60 and CA/60 are the baseline for D.
    Not a %
    That does not reflect the Base line or the Differential

    Pietrangrelo”
    19yr 09-10
    9gm (3rd/4th) 59.01 CA/60
    20yr 10-11
    79gm (1st/2nd) 48.9 CA/60

    Nurse
    19 yr 14-15
    2gm (3rd/4th) 39.41
    20 yr
    too small a sample.

    But With PC Speak saying
    Sekera 2nd Pair
    Are they thinking of giving Nurse 1st/2nd/3rd like Petrangelo @20

    Hello Mr. TheBear,

    Below is Mr. Pietrangelo’s GA/60 over the last 3 years with 3 different goalies:

    Elliot (1611min) 1.97 GA/60
    Halak (881min) 2.38 GA/60
    Allen (862min) 2.71 GA/60

    Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=985&withagainst=true&season=2012-15&sit=5v5

    Is Mr. Pietrangelo a better Dman in fron of Elliot than Halak and then even worse in front of Allen?

    Please note that during this time his partner for 2268 of his 3768 minutes has been Bouwmeester so “partner effects” do not come into play.

    Questionlingly yours,
    Mr. Guy

  31. theres oil in virginia says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    If big makes you look slow, why do Nurse and Klefbom look fast?

    The issue is less about top speed than it is acceleration.Or to put it in words most of us can understand, Draisaitl has a lot of power but is lacking torque.

    According the Oilers website:
    Draisaitl….6-1…210 lb…2.88 lb/in
    Nurse…….6-4…205 lb…2.70 lb/in
    Klefbom…6-3…210 lb…2.80 lb/in

    Nurse is clearly the lankiest. (Let that sink in for a second.) He looks smaller/faster when skating.

  32. Visually better says:

    GCW_69,

    Thank you… I mean, it is what it is. I just really wish they would’ve went after Stewart, or Matthias, or belesky, such a lateral move getting Korp, we have more talent than we can handle, but we do play in the west coast.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Pakarinen and Draisaitl will be interesting to watch. If Pakarinen forces himself onto 3R or 4R, then Klinkhammer is 13th/14th forward. But that would also mean that moving Letestu over to make room for Draisaitl may not happen (unless Purcell gets traded). If that’s the case, then Draisaitl would have to go on LW to make the team. Who does he replace there? Korpikoski or Hendricks? I think if Pakarinen makes the starting roster then after Draisaitl spends his time in the AHL to extend his contract, we may say Purcell or Hendricks sent away for futures. I’ll also be watchiung Slepyshev and Yakimov closely this season to see how they do. They could also force their way onto the team if things go well in Bakersfield.

  34. Ducey says:

    GCW_69,

    No to Chris Stewart.

    There is a reason he is looking for his 5th team in 5 years.

    Last season his CF% was 39.4%. Blech.

  35. godot10 says:

    Draisaitl should prove he can dominate as an AHL centre before the Oilers integrate him into the NHL as a LW and eventually as a centre.

    Massive ice-time in Bakersfield is more important than any ice time in Edmonton this season. Check off the damn box.

    Ice time is more important than location for Draisaitl this season.

    With Nurse, the OIlers might be able to give him the ice time in the NHL because the defense is not as deep as the forward group.

    40 games for Draisaitl in Bakersfield. Maybe 20 for Nurse.

    That would be the right thing to do.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    I’m not surprised that Franson hasn’t been picked up. I’m sure that he wants to get paid on a long term contract and no GM is desperate enough to do that. He is waiting for some GM to get desperate.

    Draisatl on the wing does help with some of the size issues we have on the wings.
    Hall, Pou Ebs, Draisatl
    that no longer looks small. I like Yak, but like you said LT, I don’t know if he is here at this time next year. If he doesnt take a big step forward this year I’m sure Chia will move him

  37. GCW_69 says:

    Visually better:
    GCW_69,

    Thank you… I mean, it is what it is. I just really wish they would’ve went after Stewart, or Matthias, or belesky, such a lateral move getting Korp, we have more talent than we can handle, but we do play in the west coast.

    They could still salvage things by trading Hendricks (who likely has some trade value after his World Championships stint) and using the savings to help sign Stewart.

  38. jm363561 says:

    DBO,
    There is no way Lander moves from 3C to 1RW…. Not sure that makes any sense.

    I am not saying it will happen but it would not surprise me having been blown away by how well AL played in the Worlds – speed, skill, defence, warrior. The last attribute, in particular, is one that we need more of.

  39. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Woodguy:
    Please note that during this time his partner for 2268 of his 3768 minutes has been Bouwmeester so “partner effects” do not come into play.

    Wait – Ricki believes in “partner effects” but not “goalie effects”?

  40. godot10 says:

    Kris11:
    What are the pros and cons of moving CMD to the wing instead of LD?

    Pro: LD probably can handle defensive responsibility against big Western conference centers down low.

    Pro: CMD’s speed on the wing would be super valuable.

    Pro: CMD could learn the pro game without having to worry about the difficult defensive responsibility that comes with playing C.

    Con: Asking an 18 year old to play out of the position he knows best could hurt his game. We don’t want to risk doing that to CMD.

    Con: Hall or Pouliot would be good matches to play with CMD and they are both LW’s, so you couldn’t play them with CMD if he was moved to LW.

    I’m not sure though.

    There is increased injury risk for McDavid on the wing in an unfamiliar position. One is closing off half the ice surface to your most dynamic player.

    One protects McDavid by giving him Hall and another veteran winger (not Yakupov). Hall will create space and open ice for McDavid, and the other team has to put out skaters (not pylons and thugs) against them.

  41. pocession charge says:

    Ducey:
    GCW_69,

    No to Chris Stewart.

    There is a reason he is looking for his 5th team in 5 years.

    Last season his CF% was 39.4%.Blech.

    Poor pocession player. Check.

    Often injured. Check.

    Mediocre offence. Check.

    Looking for a big payday to play bottom six minutes. Check.

    I guess he can fight a bit?

  42. rickithebear says:

    FO%
    Hendricks – 53.4 – 52.8 HM – 53.6 RD
    Letestu – 52.1 – 53.5 HM – 49.4 RD
    Lander – 50.1 – 52.1 HM – 48.3 RD
    RNH – 45.7 – 48.0 HM – 43.4 RD
    Hall – 48.2 – 48.4 HM – 48.1 RD
    Draisatl – 40.8 – 45.1 HM – 35.8 RD

  43. GCW_69 says:

    Ducey:
    GCW_69,

    No to Chris Stewart.

    There is a reason he is looking for his 5th team in 5 years.

    Last season his CF% was 39.4%.Blech.

    On Buffalo. When he was in St Louis he held his own and when he was with Minny last year he was 54.8%, so its not like he can’t do it anymore.

  44. T0ML says:

    Ducey:
    GCW_69,

    No to Chris Stewart.

    There is a reason he is looking for his 5th team in 5 years.

    Last season his CF% was 39.4%.Blech.

    Wasnt Pouliot on his 5th team in 5 years as well?

  45. rickithebear says:

    theres oil in virginia: According the Oilers website:
    Draisaitl….6-1…210 lb…2.88 lb/in
    Nurse…….6-4…205 lb…2.70 lb/in
    Klefbom…6-3…210 lb…2.80 lb/in

    Nurse is clearly the lankiest.(Let that sink in for a second.)He looks smaller/faster when skating.

    Marincin 6’4″ 203lb 2.67 Lb/in
    Nurse 6’4″ 205lb @ draft 6’3.5″ 184lb 11.4% increase in size. best i have seen is 17%
    Does he get to 215lb?

    better start putting on some weight or they will run you out of town.
    😉

  46. GCW_69 says:

    pocession charge: Poor pocession player. Check.

    Often injured. Check.

    Mediocre offence. Check.

    Looking for a big payday to play bottom six minutes.Check.

    I guess he can fight a bit?

    He played 81 games each of the last two seasons. He was 54.8% CF% with Minny for his last 20 games, so he can still play OK possession. His career average per 82 is 23 goals, 16 at EV. His points/60 is also pretty good.

    And no one is going to give him a big payday. He is the Brad Boyes of two years ago. If you can get him for under $2M why not take the chance? I would not pay him more than $2M and not more than 1 year. But on the cheap, I would absolutely grab him.

    And you would think the chance to play with McDavid or Nuge and pump up his stats for a big payday a year from now would be very enticing and motivating.

  47. Ducey says:

    GCW_69: On Buffalo.When he was in St Louis he held his own and when he was with Minny last year he was 54.8%, so its not like he can’t do it anymore.

    EDM is a lot closer in the standings/ possession to BUF than STL or MIN. The 39.4% included all games last year, including 20 with MIN.

    The guy checks off all the boxes for GM’s wanting the mythical power forward, but there is definitely something missing there.

    I even thought about EDM signing to flip him at the deadline. But last year he only brought back a 2nd – in 2017!

    Whoever signs Stewart is going to find inconsistency and disappointment. That is his MO ever since he turned pro.

  48. Hammers says:

    Pakirinen does have a chance to make it but only if Purcell is gone and you have to think there trying to jettison both Nikitin and Ference first . If all 3 go we start to settle into the correct $ range as well . .the goal this year is to trade away Nikitin and Purcell by xmas preferable . By then a few things are sorted out . Leon and Nurse in those 2 out . If Chia does it by Oct his a genius .

  49. RexLibris says:

    Someone mentioned the other day that teams can exceed the cap by ?15%? in the off-season.

    Also, if going to arbitration with Schultz opens up another buyout window then…

    Why not go to arbitration with Schultz, buyout Ference, then sign Ehrhoff. If you are over on the cap it means you “have” to trade away a defenseman, but because you’ve just removed one of the last two good ones from the market (Franson being the other one) you can then sell off your remaining one (Nikitin) to the jilted suitors still looking for a dance partner.

    The ideal play is to replace Schultz, Ference and Nikitin with Franson and Ehrhoff, but I don’t know how you’d make all those pieces fall in place in so short a time.

  50. RexLibris says:

    Lance Bouma, Josh Jooris and Paul Byron have all filed for salary arbitration.

    Let’s see how much cap space the Flames have at the beginning of September.

  51. GCW_69 says:

    Ducey: EDM is a lot closer in the standings/ possession to BUF than STL or MIN.The 39.4% included all games last year, including 20 with MIN.

    The guy checks off all the boxes for GM’s wanting the mythical power forward, but there is definitely something missing there.

    I even thought about EDM signing to flip him at the deadline.But last year he only brought back a 2nd – in 2017!

    Whoever signs Stewart is going to find inconsistency and disappointment. That is his MO ever since he turned pro.

    Coincidentally, the Oilers are going to be needing a 2nd in 2017 to replace the one they give up for Chiarelli, so maybe that’s still a good play?

    Look, I get its a risk, but the Oilers aren’t going to be competing for a Cup this year. If he doesn’t hit, you dump him in Bakersfield or trade him for peanuts or let him walk at the end of the year. But if he hits, the Oilers really do have the mythical three scoring lines. I would like to see a veteran coach have some time with him where he is playing with some good centres again. 20 goal scorers are worth something.

  52. GCW_69 says:

    RexLibris: Someone mentioned the other day that teams can exceed the cap by ?15%? in the off-season.

    I believe it is 10%.

  53. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers): Wait – Ricki believes in “partner effects” but not “goalie effects”?

    I honestly have no idea why I put that in there actually.

  54. Pouzar says:

    @TSNRyanRishaug 4m4 minutes ago
    I’d Expect Expect the Oilers to file for arbitration on Schultz today. That will trigger buyout window for them….

  55. Ducey says:

    Pouzar,

    So, question of the week:

    Buyout:
    a) Ference?
    b) Nikitin?
    c) None of the above?

    I really don’t like having Ference’s money spread over 4 years, so I think I would buy out Nikitin saving $3 million this year. That might be enough to bring in an Ehrhoff.

  56. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    Lance Bouma, Josh Jooris and Paul Byron have all filed for salary arbitration.

    Let’s see how much cap space the Flames have at the beginning of September.

    If I’m Treliving I walk from almost any award that Jooris gets.

    Byron too.

  57. John.L says:

    theres oil in virginia: According the Oilers website:
    Draisaitl….6-1…210 lb…2.88 lb/in
    Nurse…….6-4…205 lb…2.70 lb/in
    Klefbom…6-3…210 lb…2.80 lb/in

    Nurse is clearly the lankiest.(Let that sink in for a second.)He looks smaller/faster when skating.

    FWIW Nurse was listed as 213 lbs on the orientation camp roster sheet that they were handing out at Rexall this weekend

  58. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo,

    Finally? He’s only been here for a year. LOL.

    As someone who lived in Columbus a year ago and followed the Blue Jackets, I am still shocked by that contract. I thought he would get at best a 1 year 2 mil prove me contract and I was against that.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Pouzar: This. Gonna do my best to chill and report back when there’s actual news. I’m frickin obsessed.

    Miss me? 😛

  60. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: Pouzar, So, question of the week:Buyout:a) Ference?b) Nikitin?c) None of the above?I really don’t like having Ference’s money spread over 4 years, so I think I would buy out Nikitin saving $3 million this year. That might be enough to bring in an Ehrhoff.

    Sure looks like NN I think. Can’t buy out yer Captain!

  61. Ducey says:

    Rondo:
    Edmonton Oilers to trigger buy-out window: Is Nikita Nikitin finally on the way out?

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/07/06/edmonton-oilers-to-trigger-buy-out-window-is-nikita-nikitin-finally-on-the-way-out/

    Wait, what?

    So the Oilers have to take a second player to arbitration before they can use a buyout? Who would that be?

    When it comes to the mechanics of buy-out, GeneralFanager.com makes it sound like the Oilers would have to take a second player to arbitration, not just Schultz, to open up a buy-out window: “For teams with two or more arbitration filings in an offseason, an additional buyout window is available 48 hours after the team’s last arbitration filing is awarded or settled. For this buyout window, there is a minimum AAV requirement on the player being bought out that varies annually. The estimated minimum for the 2015 offseason is $2,985,625. In addition to meeting this minimum AAV, the player must have been on the team’s reserve list for the previous year to qualify for this buyout window. Teams can execute a maximum of 3 buyouts in this additional buyout window over the course of the entire CBA term.”

    Edit:To answer my own question, I guess it would have to be Pitlick or Davidson.

  62. speeds says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Treliving I walk from almost a

    ny award that Jooris gets.

    Byron too.

    Not sure if any of them would likely be awarded enough for CGY to be able to walk away?

  63. theres oil in virginia says:

    John.L: FWIW Nurse was listed as 213 lbs on the orientation camp roster sheet that they were handing out at Rexall this weekend

    What was Draisaitl listed at? I’m guessing Klefbom was not listed.

  64. striatic says:

    Stanley 2018:
    The really interesting thing is, it’s possible an Ehrhoff or a Franson could end up having to sign a 1-yr deal this season if they can’t get the $$/term they want. Now, while the Oilers can’t exactly woo them with SC contention, there’s a ton of excitement and the team is going to get huge exposure this year. That may be enough to get one of these guys and punch our ticket into the- and I can’t believe I’m saying this- Playoffs.

    Hadn’t considered that but it is a really good idea.

    1 year of a overpay on Erhoff is workable for all parties. Possibly 2.

    Erhoff gets first pairing minutes with known quantity Sekera. Excellent opportunity to excel that many teams don’t have the ability to offer. If Erhoff overcomes his baggage his next contract would be very large indeed.

    If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs, and they probably won’t even with Erhoff, then there is a trade at the deadline to a playoff bound team. a promise made before signing.

    If it turns out Erhoff is finished, it’s just 1 year. Possibly 2.

  65. dustrock says:

    I am now completely confused.

    I thought we missed the window for buyouts, and the team elected not to take Schultz to arbitration. It was up to Schultz to go to arbitration up to yesterday, and now that window has passed.

    Therefore, I thought there was no further chance at arbitration or a buyout window.

  66. Магия 10 says:

    Ducey: Wait, what?

    So the Oilers have to take a second player to arbitration before they can use a buyout?Who would that be?

    When it comes to the mechanics of buy-out, GeneralFanager.com makes it sound like the Oilers would have to take a second player to arbitration, not just Schultz, to open up a buy-out window: “For teams with two or more arbitration filings in an offseason, an additional buyout window is available 48 hours after the team’s last arbitration filing is awarded or settled. For this buyout window, there is a minimum AAV requirement on the player being bought out that varies annually. The estimated minimum

    for the 2015 offseason is $2,985,625. In addition to meeting this minimum AAV, the player must have been on the team’s reserve list for the previous year to qualify for this buyout window. Teams can execute a maximum of 3 buyouts in this additional buyout window over the course of the entire CBA term.”

    Edit:To answer my own question, I guess it would have to be Pitlick or Davidson.

    I think Schutlz et. all. are covered by 12.3(b). So the Oil have no players covered by 12.3(a)

    11.18 …However, in the event that a Club has only one salary arbitration
    hearing pursuant to Section 12.3(a) in a given League Year, such Club shall not be entitled to
    exercise such an Ordinary Course Buy-Out outside the regular period.

    12.3

    (a) Club-Elected Salary Arbitration For Players With Paragraph 1 NHL Salaries plus
    Signing, Roster, and Reporting Bonuses Greater Than $1,750,000 In The Prior League Year

    (b) Club-Elected Salary Arbitration For Players Who Receive Qualifying Offers.

    EDIT: Fun to parse, but the preceding text is about 3 out of period buy outs over the life of the CBA. No other limits outside of the effect on a single player under 12.3(a).

  67. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Elliot (1611min) 1.97 GA/60
    Halak (881min) 2.38 GA/60
    Allen (862min) 2.71 GA/60

    There is Goalie Influence!
    You can establish a EVGA/60 vs CA/60 curve/Spline for each Goalie.
    It then can be put aaginst the CA?60 that D generates for that year.

    Pietrangelo:
    14-15
    Elliot (752) – 52.44 CA/60 – 2.15 EVGA/60
    Allen (637) – 55.38 – 2.54
    Brodeur (109) – 51.67 – 2.20
    13-14
    Halak (646) – 50.92 – 2.23
    Elliott (491) – 52.82 – 1.96
    Miller (304) – 44.85 – 1.58
    12-13
    Elliott (374) – 45.50 – 1.60
    Halak (236) – 48.80 – 2.80
    this performance does not fit Halaks EVGA vs CA/60 spline/Curve.
    Might want to go to Goal vodeos to look at
    D partner
    Side attacked
    Open hole shots
    Allen (226) – 57.16 – 3.19

    As for us?
    I am very excited to have one of the best EVGA vs CA curve on our team.

    Scrivens CA vs EVGA curve
    65.00+ – 3.40
    59.00 – 2.90
    55.00 – 2.77
    53.00 – 2.66
    50.00 – 2.30
    48.00 – 2.10
    Does not bail out any team.

    PC brought in:
    Talbot
    46.00 CA/60 1.20 EVGA
    49.00 CA/60 1.70
    52.00 CA/60 1.95
    55.00 CA/60 2.10
    58.00 Ca/60 2.45
    We are a lucky team!

    I did not do Dubnyk’s excluding the Eakins year.
    I suspect I would cry!

    we a have a whole histrory of
    not better than 52.00 D

    Here are our D and comp they should slot. plus Talbot and Scrivens expected EVGA

    Fayne (1st) (42.25) – <1.20 – <2.10
    Nikitin (2nd) (49.32) – 1.72 – 2.23
    Gryba (2nd) (49.98) – 1.75 – 2.30
    Sekura (1st) (51.39) – 1.83 – 2.47
    Klefbom (2nd) (52.97) – 2.00 – 2.66
    Schultz (3rd) (54.40) – 2.07 – 2.74
    Nurse (3rd) (45.38) – <1.20 – <2.10

    If we get curretn Ca/60 Talbot?
    Damn!

  68. Drew says:

    striatic,

    I was a big MacT fan for years and years. I was quietly optimistic that he could be a decent hockey management type. I believe he was not put in a position to succeed by his manager (just another bad decision by Klowe).
    The Niki N contract was one of many fireable offenses in MacT’s limited time in control. I hope they are positioning the org to take advantage of some cap casualties that show themselves in the coming months and can get out from under it, feels like it.

  69. striatic says:

    Ducey: I really don’t like having Ference’s money spread over 4 years, so I think I would buy out Nikitin saving $3 million this year. That might be enough to bring in an Ehrhoff.

    If Erhoff is healthy, that’s playoff contending D.

    If.

    But oh man if he and Sekera could put a season together…

  70. Richard S.S. says:

    Anyone pay any attention to the recent “run up to the Memorial Cup”? Particularly interesting were the Nurse – McDavid matchups. Nurse stayed with McDavid very well, limiting his offense fairly well. That should mean Nurse had to skate very well to do his job. I plan to ignore anyone suggesting Nurse can’t skate well as talking utter nonsense.

    Taller people don’t look fast. When I walk, I only need to take three strides to anyone else’s four. When I lengthen my stride, I’m moving faster but don’t look like I am, until you see how fast the person beside me must move. Without any comparison values to go by it’s difficult to make accurate judgements.

    Leon Draisaitl`s speed is like that, because there’s not usually anything to compare him with. From what little I’ve seen of him moving, that’s not slow. Until someone can prove conclusively that Drai can’t skate, I plan to ignore anyone who says different.

  71. striatic says:

    Pouzar: Sure looks like NN I think. Can’t buy out yer Captain!

    Maybe it is an Ethan Moreau situation where miraculously a trade appears.

    Don’t know where Ference fits if Nurse forces the issue as LT suggests.

  72. Магия 10 says:

    I think they only need 1 and it should not be for someone who *might* get an award that they want to walk from. Better yetit should be someone who nudge nudge wink who will readily settle after the buyout and before the hearing.

  73. Kmart99 says:

    If both Nurse and GR force the issue…. Then what?

  74. dustrock says:

    Based on what people have posted here, this is what it seems like to me:

    (1) 12.3(a) – team elected arbitration, no buyout window, unless
    (2) 12.3(b) – team had provided a qualifying offer, in which case buyout window opens, unless

    (3) salary is over $1.75m, in which case buyout window does not open.

  75. Gerta Rauss says:

    Kmart99:
    If both Nurse and GR force the issue…. Then what?

    The Oilers could run 8 D and 13 F to start the season. There is always injuries as well..it may take 20 games before “push comes to shove” and they need to waive a player in order to get to 23 players on the roster.

    Nikiitin is essentially waiver exempt as well…he’s not of course…but nobody is touching that contract for the first 50 games at least. He is free to move up/down to the AHL as far as I’m concerned.

  76. Gerta Rauss says:

    dustrock:
    Based on what people have posted here, this is what it seems like to me:

    (1) 12.3(a) – team elected arbitration, no buyout window, unless
    (2) 12.3(b) – team had provided a qualifying offer, in which case buyout window opens, unless

    (3) salary is over $1.75m, in which case buyout window does not open.

    That’s how I understood it as well, but if you read Willis’ article, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

    It’s 12.3(a)

    OR

    12.3(b)

    It appears that because the OIlers qualified Jultz and he (1)hasn’t signed it and (2) did not file for player elected arbitration, the OIlers can file for 12.3(b) type of arbitration

  77. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: There is increased injury risk for McDavid on the wing in an unfamiliar position.One is closing off half the ice surface to your most dynamic player.

    One protects McDavid by giving him Hall and another veteran winger (not Yakupov).Hall will create space and open ice for McDavid, and the other team has to put out skaters (not pylons and thugs) against them.

    Meh. McDavid was a quasi winger in junior anyhow. He certainly wasn’t the low forward in his own zone most of the time. Once you get out of your own end, forwards are free to wander in most systems.

    Crosby played his first 25 games at wing with Super Mario as his center.

    I think it certainly wouldn’t hurt McDavid to start his career at wing and transition over to C when he gets comfortable with the speed.

  78. wheatnoil says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    As usual, young Willis is all over it

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/7/6/justin-schultz-and-the-edmonton-oilers-second-buyout-window

    Willis with an awesome post. The man doesn’t appear to sleep.

    I agree with him too. I think Ference is the buy-out candidate here over Nikitin.

    Buying out Nikitin:
    2015/16 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0
    2018/19 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0

    Buying out Ference
    2015/16 – $0.67M buy-out + Nikitin = $5.17M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.17M buy-out, no Nikitin Ference = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2018/19 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space

    Buying out Ference obviously extends the cap hit, but it gets you out of Ference and Nikitin being on the roster after just this year for a marginally higher cap hit, followed by a much lower cap hit in 2016/17. In total, buying out Ference saves $2.58 on the cap this coming year compared to $3M savings buying out Nikitin, but saves you significantly more the following year.

  79. dustrock says:

    Gerta Rauss: That’s how I understood it as well, but if you read Willis’ article, that doesn’t appear to be the case. It’s 12.3(a) OR12.3(b)It appears that because the OIlers qualified Jultz and he (1)hasn’t signed it and (2) did not file for player elected arbitration, the OIlers can file for 12.3(b) type of arbitration

    Not going to go over the CBA with a fine-toothed comb, but I just reviewed it and I didn’t see a reference to no buyout period if the salary was over $1.75m. Maybe I was looking at the wrong section.

    Certainly the plain reading suggests a buyout window does open.

  80. zatch says:

    Nikitn is also much easier to trade.

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Kmart99,

    That would be a terrible problem to have 🙂

  82. TheOtherJohn says:

    i am looking forward to Nurse playing 80 gp this year on our blue and contributing 11 g and 43 pts. That would be fantastic.in which case he will be a top pairing guy in a year or two thereafter

  83. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock: Certainly the plain reading suggests a buyout window does open.

    The only case that is closed off right now is a ONE player under (a). The 3 players they could file on all had QO which puts them under (b) which does not require more than one.

    As usual no need to ask whatchya talking about Willis? He explains it very well.

  84. Магия 10 says:

    Gerta Rauss: It appears that because the OIlers qualified Jultz and he (1)hasn’t signed it and (2) did not file for player elected arbitration, the OIlers can file for 12.3(b) type of arbitration

    Yes. And it does not have to be Schultz. Could do this with TP or BS instead.

  85. dustrock says:

    Магия 10: The only case that is closed off right now is a ONE player under (a). The 3 players they could file on all had QO which puts them under (b) which does not require more than one.As usual no need to ask whatchya talking about Willis? He explains it very well.

    No, the main confusion I was having is that some people were claiming that regardless of s. 12.3(b), the buyout window would not open if the salary was >$1.75m. I couldn’t find that section anywhere in the CBA.

    I think they’re good to go so long as they select arbitration with Schultz by 3 pm Edmonton time today.

  86. theres oil in virginia says:

    wheatnoil,

    Not only that, but Nikitin can be moved and Ference cannot. So, even if you don’t get cap relief, moving Nikitin down to the minors gives you active-roster relief (not 50-man roster relief).

    Just take your medicine with Nikitin – it’s over in one year.

  87. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Treliving I walk from almost any award that Jooris gets.

    Byron too.

    No ! Wasn’t he crowned the Flames “Lucic” after the playoff series with Vancouver??? Or was that Ferland? It’s so hard to remember since all the Flames were just so outstanding… Monahan=Toews, Gaudreau=Kane, Hudler=Stamkos, etc etc etc.. Or some such bullsh@&t

    Sorry, I just can’t stand the Flames or their fans.

  88. Younger Oil says:

    The only reason it makes sense to buy out Nikitin is if we plan to spend right to the cap and need an extra $3M in cap space. Otherwise, we might as well just stick it out, or create the space by being creative to ensure the rookies on their ELCs don’t hit their performance bonuses.

    Also, when was the last time in Oilers history that we had training camp with actual NHLers fighting for roster spots? I’m not sure where to draw the line for a lock on the roster, but we have Korpikoski, Klinkhammer, Draisaitl, Pakarainen, Pitlick, Gazdic and potentially Yakimov, Slepyshev and Miller competing for two spots in the opening night lineup.

    Then, assuming we sign Schultz, we have Nurse, Reinhart, Gryba, Ference, Nikitin and potentially Davidson or Musil competing to be on the bottom pairing opening night, or potentially all of them fighting for one spot if Chia does in fact add someone like Erhoff.

    Seriously, when was the last time this happened? It almost feels wrong not knowing what the opening night lineup will look like in early July.

  89. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    So if they do buyout Nikitin, that necessarily means that they’re planning on doing something else this season, right? Otherwise, the cap savings would be pointless, and they’ll actually be in a slightly worse cap position in 2016-2017.

  90. John.L says:

    speeds: Not sure if any of them would likely be awarded enough for CGY to be able to walk away?

    Draisaitl was at 214

  91. Gerta Rauss says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers),

    I believe so, yes.

    It would signal that Chia is not done, and we’re turning north this year

  92. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Kmart99:
    If both Nurse and GR force the issue…. Then what?

    Then there’s no harm in keeping them down in Bakersfield. Maybe they’re encouraged that they got told they’re getting sent down simply because of waiver eligibility, maybe they get pissed off. Either way, they’re motivated.

    They play 25 minutes a night together and figure out how to work right and left side.

  93. speeds says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers),

    It does open a roster spot, and save actual money.

    I think your take fits pretty well though, it’s possible they even have a deal lined up already and do not want to officially sign it until they know they can clear a spot/some money.

  94. stevezie says:

    I do not consider Erhoff’s injury history a huge liability. If he goes down, either Nurse or Reinhart comes up. They seem ready.

    The real threat is the term Franson would ask. He looks good by a lot of numbers, but i do not want to commit to a guy who got healthy scratched by the team who traded a first for him.

    He might be good, but ain’t bona fide.

  95. misfit says:

    I don’t have a problem with centers starting their pro careers on the wing, but in the case of Draisaitl, I’d much rather he stayed at center. We have other players who can play wing, and have looked good doing so (I would slide Lander over, myself)

    Since the moment we came up 5 14 6 1, people have been talking about putting Leon on the wing. It seems like the sole reason for this is so that we don’t have 2 “rookies” at center in the same year. Well, people may not have noticed this, but McDavid is no regular rookie. In fact, neither is Draisaitl. The guy played in 32 games at center in the NHL last year, and looked just fine doing it. He has since dominated junior wining nearly every individual award he could…at center, and in watching him play over the years, he’s about as much a natural center as you’ll find. Not only that, but he adds a much different look and something we haven’t had down the middle of the ice since Jason Arnott. Rookie orientation camp and fan discussion having him on the wing is fine with me, I just hope that McLellan keeps him at center when they start doing things for real.

    In 2006 the Penguins started their season with a sophomore and 2 rookies as their top 3 centers. Was there ever any talk of Staal playing wing? Some, but did they do it? No. Why? Because the Oilers and their fans love to overthink every little thing instead of just doing what’s obvious, and the Penguins just put their best players in their natural positions carried on. Now, Nuge is no Crosby, but McDavid/Malkin and Draisaitl/Staal are not far off. Oh, and that Pens team with all the inexperience down the middle made the playoffs that year with a trip to the finals the following season (and on to glory the year after that).

  96. theres oil in virginia says:

    Nurse listed as 6-4 185 lb for 2014 orientation camp:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=724895

    and listed as 6-4 193 lb for 2015 orientation camp:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=773001

    So, as usual, getting an accurate weight listing is nearly impossible.

    i think safest bet is the Oilers website, which says 205 lb.

  97. Wonder Llama says:

    wheatnoil: Willis with an awesome post. The man doesn’t appear to sleep.

    I agree with him too. I think Ference is the buy-out candidate here over Nikitin.

    Buying out Nikitin:
    2015/16 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0
    2018/19 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0

    Buying out Ference
    2015/16 – $0.67M buy-out + Nikitin = $5.17M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.17M buy-out, no Nikitin Ference = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2018/19 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space

    Buying out Ference obviously extends the cap hit, but it gets you out of Ference and Nikitin being on the roster after just this year for a marginally higher cap hit, followed by a much lower cap hit in 2016/17. In total, buying out Ference saves $2.58 on the cap this coming year compared to $3M savings buying out Ference, but saves you significantly more the following year.

    Fascinating. I never looked at it that way – just assumed Oilers wouldn’t entertain the idea of a four-year buyout period for Ference. If this is the plan does it give Chia enough room to make one more move on D? My very quick estimate (assuming McDavid hits bonuses but Drais and Nurse do not, or play in Bakersfield) is about $5 – 5.5 MM in cap space. Enough for Ehrhoff on a short term deal or not?

  98. theres oil in virginia says:

    John.L: Draisaitl was at 214

    Thanks. I read at C&B that Loik Leveille was listed as 5-9 on that sheet, but is 6-0 everywhere else. I don’t know what to make of it.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/7/4/8894939/notes-from-orientation-camp

  99. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    Yeah, Erhoff instead of Sekera would have been bad, on account of the risk. Erhoff in addition to Sekera would be fantastic.

  100. pocession charge says:

    theres oil in virginia: Thanks.I read at C&B that Loik Leveille was listed as 5-9 on that sheet, but is 6-0 everywhere else.I don’t know what to make of it.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/7/4/8894939/notes-from-orientation-camp

    I believe the 5’9″ was a typo. Think he’s a shade under 6 feet.

  101. flyfish1168 says:

    Buy out Ference. Todd then can name his Captain. Sign Franson or Oduya to one year contract to keep Nurse or Reinhart down in AHL. Trade Nikitan and whoever you just picked up at trade deadline. Bring up Nurse or Reinhart after trade deadline

  102. misfit says:

    As for the buyout, if we do buy anyone out, it should be Ference (as Willis and others above have said).

    With Nikitin, you have options. You can:
    – Play him in your top 7/8 depending on how many D we carry
    – Trade him at any time throughout the year, with or without retaining salary
    – Send him to the minors to free a roster spot and save ~$1M in cap room
    – Waive him and hope someone takes him off your hands for free
    – Buy out the contract and carry a year of dead cap space

    With Ference you can:
    – Play him as the team’s worst defenseman
    – Buy out the contract and carry 3 years of dead cap space

  103. frjohnk says:

    Tell Ference to retire cuz he is pretty much done.

    If he retires, then buyout Nikitin.

    Sign Erhoff to a 1-2 year deal.

    If Ference does not retire, buy him out, trade Nikitin with salary retained.

    Sign Erhoff to a 1-2 year deal.

    Sekera
    Fayne
    Klefbom
    Erhoff
    Nurse
    Schultz
    are your 6 D

    Gryba as your 7th D

    Reinhart in AHL.

    Nurse makes the team no doubt. If Reinhart blows the doors off, things get interesting on the blue. But in a good way.

  104. theres oil in virginia says:

    pocession charge,

    Yeah, that was my point. There are possibly other mistakes on that sheet. 5-9 instead of 6-0 is a strange typo to make. Confusion reigns.

  105. theres oil in virginia says:

    flyfish1168: Buy out Ference. Todd then can name his Captain.

    And that’s the other problem that a Ference buyout solves.

  106. striatic says:

    stevezie: I do not consider Erhoff’s injury history a huge liability. If he goes down, either Nurse or Reinhart comes up. They seem ready.

    Erhoff is a left shot but my understanding – someone correct me if i’m wrong on this – is that he prefers playing the right side.

    I’m not sure if Nurse or Reinhart would fill his spot positionally.

  107. Adam Wu says:

    Nikitin will either be the same (as he is in the plateau phase of his career) or better (recovery from injury, motivation of contract year, etc) next year.

    Ference will definitely be worse (as he is in the falling off the cliff phase of his career).

    If you had a choice of one to keep and one to get rid of, Ference is the one who should go.

  108. kb says:

    I do like ference as a buyout do to his NMC, but

    I don’t mind the look of (overpaid 7D yes, but he’s also an overpaid NHL’r at this point)

    2015:
    Sekara Fayne
    Kelfbom Schultz
    Nurse Gryba
    Ference

    2016:
    Sekara Fayne
    Kelfbom Schultz
    Nurse Reinhart
    Ference

  109. maudite says:

    If they do buy out nikitin:

    I’m hoping they still sit out there like a vulture and scoop up any solid chunks of meat left over by the coyotes. There are going to be some Gilbert/Raymond 1 million dollar bargains on 1 year deals to be had this time. There is going to be some solid value remaining out there for actual NHL guys. I’d be looking to scoop those up, see where you are at by deadline and choose to sell and or buy at that point accordingly. Worse case scenario you add a couple more 2nd-4th round picks next year.

  110. Richard S.S. says:

    Tyler Pitlick, Justin Schultz and Brandon Davidson were the only three RFAs qualified. From my understanding of what has been written, they have three options.
    1) Agree to terms with the Team; or,
    2) Do not accept Team’s offer and file for arbitration; or,
    3) Do not accept Team’s offer, decline to file for arbitration permitting the Team to file for arbitration.
    I think Brandon Davidson has (1) accepted the Teams Offer. I know Justin Schultz (3) is letting the Team file for arbitration. I have no idea what Tyler Pitlick has done.

    The only point I’m not sure about is if two players go to arbitration, does “that” open a second buyout window? That’s why I’m not sure about Pitlick

  111. Магия 10 says:

    Richard S.S.: The only point I’m not sure about is if two players go to arbitration, does “that” open a second buyout window? That’s why I’m not sure about Pitlick

    only takes a club arbitration filing to one player who has not accepted his qo.

  112. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Treliving I walk from almost any award that Jooris gets.

    Byron too.

    Yep. Bouma is good. Jooris is kind of like costume jewelry. Looks fancy but not enough value there to keep it around.

    My hope is they retain all three now that the FA upgrade options are getting fewer and fewer.

  113. Stanley 2018 says:

    Not sure what the hate on is with Ference. Guy plays his guts out, provides badly needed leadership, and is perfectly useful in a 5/6 role. He’s a solid role model for GR and Nurse. Problem is Oilers kept having to push him into top 4 with heavy minutes and lousy partners. That shouldn’t happen this year. Buying out Nikitin makes sense, even more so than trading him unless the retained $$ is equal to or less than the buyout cost. PC needs to keep every $$ open over next few years, so 4 years of buyout $$, even if small, is risky. Besides, we won’t really know if GR or Nurse will be NHL ready in October.

  114. stevezie says:

    striatic,

    Either way, this team’s excess of 6/7 defenceman leaves me unafraid of an erhoff injury, especially compared to the dangers of a bad contract or doing nothing.

  115. RexLibris says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: No ! Wasn’t he crowned the Flames “Lucic” after the playoff series with Vancouver??? Or was that Ferland? It’s so hard to remember since all the Flames were just so outstanding… Monahan=Toews, Gaudreau=Kane, Hudler=Stamkos, etc etc etc.. Or some such bullsh@&t

    Sorry, I just can’t stand the Flames or their fans.

    Ferland was the “next Lucic”.

    He skates fast, has decent enough hands and hits everything that moves.

    Small sample size and it was the playoffs where individual performances can stand out as they have a greater impact vs players who post more sustainable performances throughout the season.

  116. DBO says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Tyler Pitlick, Justin Schultz and Brandon Davidson were the only three RFAs qualified.From my understanding of what has been written, they have three options.
    1) Agree to terms with the Team; or,
    2) Do not accept Team’s offer and file for arbitration; or,
    3) Do not accept Team’s offer, decline to file for arbitration permitting the Team to file for arbitration.
    I think Brandon Davidson has (1) accepted the Teams Offer.I know Justin Schultz (3) is letting the Team file for arbitration.I have no idea what Tyler Pitlick has done.

    The only point I’m not sure about is if two players go to arbitration, does “that” open a second buyout window?That’s why I’m not sure about Pitlick

    Willis explains it well. To your question. There are two kinds of team initiated arbitration. ! – allows you to get a lower number per year and also to be able to walk away (which they would need 2 of in order to open the buy out window again). 2 – arb where the player gets at least their qualifying offer (which the Oil chose) therefore opening up a second buyout window with only 1 arb case.

    I think

  117. Jon K says:

    Stanley 2018:
    Not sure what the hate on is with Ference. Guy plays his guts out, provides badly needed leadership, and is perfectly useful in a 5/6 role. He’s a solid role model for GR and Nurse. Problem is Oilers kept having to push him into top 4 with heavy minutes and lousy partners. That shouldn’t happen this year. Buying out Nikitin makes sense, even more so than trading him unless the retained $$ is equal to or less than the buyout cost. PC needs to keep every $$ open over next few years, so 4 years of buyout $$, even if small, is risky. Besides, we won’t really know if GR or Nurse will be NHL ready in October.

    All of those things are great, truly. And they are the reasons why Ference was brought in to begin with.

    But time and wear has reduced Ference to the point where he is arguably the weakest link on the Oilers’ defense corps when it comes to actual defending at the NHL level. And that is quite the indictment, considering the comparators.

    There are compelling arguments to be made that Nikitin or Ference should be bought out. Nikitin really only has the one year left, so ideally getting Ference’s $3.25 this year and next off the books might be a better buyout.

  118. dustrock says:

    Mirtle with a list of the 20 notable RFAs still without a contract

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/mirtle-nhl-grapples-with-death-of-the-bridge-contract-as-young-stars-get-paid/article25311560/

    Carl Hagelin, Anaheim

    Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim

    Mikkel Boedker, Arizona

    Marcus Kruger, Chicago

    Gustav Nyquist, Detroit

    Justin Schultz, Edmonton

    Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida

    Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal

    Colin Wilson, Nashville

    Craig Smith, Nashville

    Adam Larsson, New Jersey

    Brock Nelson, NY Islanders

    Derek Stepan, NY Rangers

    Mike Hoffman, Ottawa

    Mike Del Zotto, Philadelphia

    Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis

    Jonathan Bernier, Toronto

    Braden Holtby, Washington

    Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington

    Marcus Johansson, Washington

  119. RexLibris says:

    Regarding Ehrhoff and his injury history:

    Here are the games played going back to 2009-10

    09-10 – 80gp
    10-11 – 79
    11-12 – 66
    12-13 – 32 in the DEL
    47 in the NHL
    13-14 – 79
    14-15 – 49

    This is not an injury-prone player. He has had a concussion, but there is nothing in his history to suggest that he wouldn’t be able to play at least 50 to 60 NHL games and at a higher level than most if not all of the current blueliners on the roster.

    Information taken from: http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nhl/1597/christian-ehrhoff

    and

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=8581

  120. Магия 10 says:

    DBO: also to be able to walk away (

    walking away from an award to 19 would only apply if he had filed for arbitration. i think.

  121. Revolved says:

    wheatnoil: Willis with an awesome post. The man doesn’t appear to sleep.

    I agree with him too. I think Ference is the buy-out candidate here over Nikitin.

    Buying out Nikitin:
    2015/16 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.5M buy-out + Ference = $4.75M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0
    2018/19 – No Nikitin / Ference = $0

    Buying out Ference
    2015/16 – $0.67M buy-out + Nikitin = $5.17M in wasted cap space
    2016/17 – $1.17M buy-out, no Nikitin Ference = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2017/18 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space
    2018/19 – $1.17M buy-out = $1.17M in wasted cap space

    Buying out Ference obviously extends the cap hit, but it gets you out of Ference and Nikitin being on the roster after just this year for a marginally higher cap hit, followed by a much lower cap hit in 2016/17. In total, buying out Ference saves $2.58 on the cap this coming year compared to $3M savings buying out Ference, but saves you significantly more the following year.

    If Chia buys out Ference and signs Ernhoff, in addition to everything else, it would be so amazing as to be unbelievable, such that I would need to check I hadvn’t been dreaming since the lottery. I’m fine with another year of ‘saw him bad’ Nikitin.

    I’ve tried to bring up the Captaincy before, but no takers. If Ference is gone, I say no Captain next year, with 3 As elected by the team four times through the year. Thoughts?

  122. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock:
    Mirtle with a list of the 20 notable RFAs still without a contract

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/mirtle-nhl-grapples-with-death-of-the-bridge-contract-as-young-stars-get-paid/article25311560/

    Carl Hagelin, Anaheim

    Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim

    Mikkel Boedker, Arizona

    Marcus Kruger, Chicago

    Gustav Nyquist, Detroit

    Justin Schultz, Edmonton

    Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida

    Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal

    Colin Wilson, Nashville

    Craig Smith, Nashville

    Adam Larsson, New Jersey

    Brock Nelson, NY Islanders

    Derek Stepan, NY Rangers

    Mike Hoffman, Ottawa

    Mike Del Zotto, Philadelphia

    Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis

    Jonathan Bernier, Toronto

    Braden Holtby, Washington

    Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington

    Marcus Johansson, Washington

    Mirtle: NHL grapples with death of the bridge contract as young stars get paid
    =========================================================

    For the first time in the NHL, it appears the attention has shifted toward where the really valuable players are: restricted free agency. Ten years into a salary cap world, GMs unhappy with the quality of UFAs available have finally begun to view offer sheets as a useful tool to pry players away from their teams.

    And it’s working.

    It happened three times last week alone: Dougie Hamilton went to Calgary (after the Oilers made noise about an offer sheet), Ryan O’Reilly went to Buffalo (after negotiations with Colorado went nowhere), and Brandon Saad went to Columbus (after his requests were way too high for cap-strapped Chicago and multiple teams planned to pounce).

  123. Adam Wu says:

    Stanley 2018:
    Not sure what the hate on is with Ference. Guy plays his guts out, provides badly needed leadership, and is perfectly useful in a 5/6 role. He’s a solid role model for GR and Nurse. Problem is Oilers kept having to push him into top 4 with heavy minutes and lousy partners. That shouldn’t happen this year. Buying out Nikitin makes sense, even more so than trading him unless the retained $$ is equal to or less than the buyout cost. PC needs to keep every $$ open over next few years, so 4 years of buyout $$, even if small, is risky. Besides, we won’t really know if GR or Nurse will be NHL ready in October.

    Ference isn’t useful in a 5/6 role anymore. Nurse was already arguably better than him last year, and Nurse is much better now. Keeping Ference on the roster over Nurse now would simply be entitling ice time to a veteran over a more deserving prospect, just because you have a formula for keeping prospects in developmental leagues, regardless of their performance relative to other options for roster spots. His so-called leadership is at least severely curtailed, if not outright useless, because he cannot walk the walk. He has zero credibility among the young stars who can all see that he cannot perform at an NHL level anymore.

    As for “lousy” defence partners, among his most common partners before the trade deadline was Jeff Petry, and in every other pairing he was in, he was the worse of the two. He was worse than Nikitin when he was with Nikitin. He was worse than Schultz when he was with Schultz. He was the anchor dragging all of them down.

  124. Stanley 2018 says:

    Jon K: All of those things are great, truly. And they are the reasons why Ference was brought in to begin with.
    But time and wear has reduced Ference to the point where he is arguably the weakest link on the Oilers’ defense corps when it comes to actual defending at the NHL level. And that is quite the indictment, considering the comparators.

    Ference is a better Dman than Schultz or Aulie or Nikitin. He was playing :20+ minutes per night at 35 yrs old. Of course he wasn’t good, he was exhausted. Play him :10 minutes per night, with a capable sidekick and these new and improved 2 way FW’s, and TM will be able to squeeze another year out of him.

  125. Oil2Oilers says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers):
    Yeah, Erhoff instead of Sekera would have been bad, on account of the risk. Erhoff in addition to Sekera would be fantastic.

    That such a move is in the realm of possibility is remarkable given the depths of mismanagement we have known as Oilers fans.

  126. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock: I am now completely confused.I thought we missed the window for buyouts, and the team elected not to take Schultz to arbitration. It was up to Schultz to go to arbitration up to yesterday, and now that window has passed.Therefore, I thought there was no further chance at arbitration or a buyout window.

    From the CBA:

    12.4 Notice of Club Election.
    (a) A Club electing salary arbitration pursuant to Section 12.3(a) above must do so by
    making a written request, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, utilizing the form attached hereto
    as Exhibit 22, to the parties listed in Section (c) below by not later than 5:00 p.m. New York time
    on the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup Finals in the League
    Year prior to the League Year for which the Club seeks to determine a Player’s Paragraph 1
    Salary by salary arbitration.
    (b) A Club electing salary arbitration pursuant to Section 12.3(b) above must do so by
    making a written request, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, utilizing the form attached hereto
    as Exhibit 22, to the parties listed in Section (c) below, during the period commencing upon the
    Player’s deadline to select salary arbitration and continuing for 24 hours thereafter (i.e.,
    commencing July 5 at 5:00 p.m. New York time and ending July 6 at 5:00 p.m. New York time).

    So we should know in about an hour.

  127. Doug McLachlan says:

    Магия 10: Mirtle: NHL grapples with death of the bridge contract as young stars get paid=========================================================For the first time in the NHL, it appears the attention has shifted toward where the really valuable players are: restricted free agency. Ten years into a salary cap world, GMs unhappy with the quality of UFAs available have finally begun to view offer sheets as a useful tool to pry players away from their teams.And it’s working.It happened three times last week alone: Dougie Hamilton went to Calgary (after the Oilers made noise about an offer sheet), Ryan O’Reilly went to Buffalo (after negotiations with Colorado went nowhere), and Brandon Saad went to Columbus (after his requests were way too high for cap-strapped Chicago and multiple teams planned to pounce).

    Don’t forget about Jones who was traded, TWICE, in the face of potential Offer Sheets.

  128. wheatnoil says:

    For all our hatred of Nikitin (and I have definitely contributed to this) his fancy stats remain fairly reasonable. Woodguy, G Money and myself have posted examples of this. Here’s another.

    D-corsi / 60: (Positive means that a player’s corsi is better than one would expect from an average NHL player given their usage, negative means a player’s corsi is worse than one would expect given their usage)

    Nurse = +13.22 (only two games mind you)
    Marincin = +5.51 (gah!)
    Petry = +4.51 (gah!)
    Nikitin = +1.92
    Hunt = +1.45 (surprising!)
    Oesterle = +1.34
    Fayne = +0.86
    Klefbom = -1.03 (this is the only place I’ve ever seen McDreamy look poor, interesting to note he actually has a good impact on d-corsi against [shot suppression] but loses out in shot attempt production)
    Schultz = -1.06
    Ference = -2.89
    Davidson = -3.02
    Aulie = -4.02
    Musil = -8.70 (only 4 games)

    Interesting that Hunt looks so good while Klefbom looks poor. I suspect it’s because Klefbom got so many offensive zone starts with Shultz that he couldn’t produce enough offense to cover the bet.

    War-on-ice also separates out the data to look at d-corsi for and d-corsi against.

    Klefbom was unable to drive offense, but he was able to suppress shots against.

    Schultz, on the other hand, was unable to drive offense AND unable to suppress shots against.

    Fayne had a drag on offense but successfully suppressed shots.

    Hunt leaked defense, but has a positive d-corsi because he was able to make up for it with offense. Interesting that he out-performed Schultz by at least this particular metric.

    Nikitin had a positive effect on shots for and he was able to suppress shots against.

    By the numbers, Nikitin is doing his job.

  129. v4ance says:

    speeds: Not sure if any of them would likely be awarded enough for CGY to be able to walk away?

    http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

    From page 89 of that pdf:
    12.10 Walk-Away Rights for Player-Elected Salary Arbitration.
    (a) If a Club has elected to arbitrate a one-year SPC, and the award issued is for
    $3,500,000 or more per annum, then the Club may, within forty-eight (48) hours after the award
    of the Salary Arbitrator is issued (or, if a Club has any other Player still eligible for salary
    arbitration at that time and for whom a decision has not been rendered by a Salary Arbitrator at
    that time, and the Club still has a walk-away right available to it in such League Year pursuant to
    paragraph (c) below, forty-eight (48) hours after the award of the Salary Arbitrator for such other
    Player is issued or that Player’s salary arbitration case is settled), notify the Player or his
    Certified Agent, if any, the NHLPA and the NHL in writing, in accordance with Exhibit 3
    hereof, that it does not intend to tender to the Player an SPC based on the award as determined
    by the Salary Arbitrator. Upon receipt of that notice, the Player shall automatically be deemed to
    be an Unrestricted Free Agent.

    (c) Notwithstanding the provisions of paragraphs (a) and (b) above, a Club may
    exercise the walk-away rights referred to therein not more than one (1) time in a League Year in
    which the Club has only one (1) salary arbitration award, one (1) time in a League Year in which
    the Club has two (2) salary arbitration awards, two (2) times in any League Year in which the
    Club has three (3) salary arbitration awards, two (2) times in any League Year in which the Club
    has four (4) salary arbitration awards, three (3) times in any League Year in which the Club has
    five (5) salary arbitration awards and so on. If a Club exercises its walk-away right with respect
    to a two-year award

    (d) The dollar amount of $3,500,000 set forth in each of paragraphs (a) and (b) above
    shall be increased on an annual basis at the same percentage rate of annual increase as the
    Average League Salary

    Clause (b) repeats the same language but for a 2 year term instead of a 1year term.

    The award needed to walkaway had to be $3.5 M in 2013 but the value was going to be adjusted to follow the average salary upwards, so the walkaway limit might be $3.75M now per paragraph (d).

    *****

    From this 2010 article:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/a-new-twist-in-nhls-arbitration-plot/article587253/

    When it came time to meet with an arbitrator, the Thrashers simply asked for the award to be presented immediately, based on the player’s demands, so they could then walk away from the contract.

    “We said, you know what, maybe it wouldn’t be a bad thing if he gets this silly award,” Thrashers general manager Rick Dudley said. “We kind of encouraged it.”

    So in Schultz’s case, if he asks for over $3.75M or whatever the walkaway amount is, the Oilers could let the arbitrator award it uncontested and walk away from Schultz.

    *****

    For the Flames situation, they are screwed. All of Jooris, Bouma and Byron made under $1M last year and it’s highly unlikely any of them ask for or win an award of $3.75M. That should mean the Flames can’t walk away from any of their awards and their $5.9M of cap room will totally evaporate.

    On the rare occurrence that the Flames have a $3.5M award against them, they do have walkaway rights for n-1 awards where n is the number of arbitration cases. So in the Flames case, with 3 arbitrations, the Flames can walk away from 2 of the awarded contracts.

  130. McSorley33 says:

    Cap space aside, Andrew Ference is far inferior as a player than NN. And that is saying something….

    Easy decision.

    Is this what it feels like to have competent management in place? I don’t know how to react to this….

    I am close to building a statue for Chia myself…..If he does in fact buyout Ference, I may use gold.

  131. Ducey says:

    RexLibris:
    Regarding Ehrhoff and his injury history:

    Here are the games played going back to 2009-10

    09-10 – 80gp
    10-11 – 79
    11-12 – 66
    12-13 – 32 in the DEL 47 in the NHL
    13-14 – 79
    14-15 – 49

    This is not an injury-prone player. He has had a concussion, but there is nothing in his history to suggest that he wouldn’t be able to play at least 50 to 60 NHL games and at a higher level than most if not all of the current blueliners on the roster.

    Information taken from: http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nhl/1597/christian-ehrhoff

    and

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=8581

    I don’t know about that.

    He missed 3 games in Dec 2010 for a concussion
    He had a concussion in April 2014
    Last year he had a concussion on Jan 30, 2015 and missed 12 games, then came back briefly and then was off for the rest of the season and the playoffs, with a concussion.

    On top of those there are a bunch of “upper body injuries” and things we don’t know about.

    We know that concussions can build on one another making a person more susceptible to them over time, and that the symptoms will get worse each event as well.

    I sure would not want the Oilers to give him more than a year.

  132. Doug McLachlan says:

    Repeating what Willis already calculated out but instead of looking at the “cost” I want to look at the savings of a buy-out of both Ference and Nikitin.

    For Nikitin you save $3M in cap space this year at the cost of $1.5M in cap space next year.

    For Ference you save $2.5M+ this year, $2.0M+ next year at the cost of $1.16M+ for the next two years.

    Think about it this way. The cap savings of buying out Ference this year more than pays for buying out Nikitin, with an extra $.5M to spare.

    Yes, you have spent part of your cap paying for players who aren’t going to play for you but you are now playing less for players who aren’t going to play for you.

    Ference’s $1.16M+ in years 2017-18 and 2018-19 represents 1.6% of today’s cap. Maybe the cap stays flat for the next three years but I would bet on this hit being all but meaningless by the time we are in a “worse” position as a result of the buyout.

  133. McSorley33 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Wow – Petry and Marincin……

    Good stuff…

  134. LadiesloveSmid says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Nurse listed as 6-4 185 lb for 2014 orientation camp:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=724895

    and listed as 6-4 193 lb for 2015 orientation camp:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=773001

    So, as usual, getting an accurate weight listing is nearly impossible.

    i think safest bet is the Oilers website, which says 205 lb.

    the program that had Nurse at 193 lbs had McDavid at 209 lbs. I’d definitely go with 205. That’s a fine weight to play at, maybe 5 lbs heavier. He’s very strong and so athletic.

  135. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil:
    For all our hatred of Nikitin (and I have definitely contributed to this) his fancy stats remain fairly reasonable. Woodguy, G Money and myself have posted examples of this. Here’s another.

    D-corsi / 60: (Positive means that a player’s corsi is better than one would expect from an average NHL player given their usage, negative means a player’s corsi is worse than one would expect given their usage)

    Nurse = +13.22 (only two games mind you)
    Marincin = +5.51 (gah!)
    Petry = +4.51 (gah!)
    Nikitin = +1.92
    Hunt = +1.45 (surprising!)
    Oesterle = +1.34
    Fayne = +0.86
    Klefbom = -1.03 (this is the only place I’ve ever seen McDreamy look poor, interesting to note he actuallyhas a good impact on d-corsi against [shot suppression] but loses out in shot attempt production)
    Schultz = -1.06
    Ference = -2.89
    Davidson = -3.02
    Aulie = -4.02
    Musil = -8.70 (only 4 games)

    Interesting that Hunt looks so good while Klefbom looks poor. I suspect it’s because Klefbom got so many offensive zone starts with Shultz that he couldn’t produce enough offense to cover the bet.

    War-on-ice also separates out the data to look at d-corsi for and d-corsi against.

    Klefbom was unable to drive offense, but he was able to suppress shots against.

    Schultz, on the other hand, was unable to drive offense AND unable to suppress shots against.

    Fayne had a drag on offense but successfully suppressed shots.

    Hunt leaked defense, but has a positive d-corsi because he was able to make up for it with offense. Interesting that he out-performed Schultz by at least this particular metric.

    Nikitin had a positive effect on shots for and he was able to suppress shots against.

    By the numbers, Nikitin is doing his job.

    Boy I wish we had

    Sekera-Fayne
    Marincin-Petry

  136. Richard S.S. says:

    If no buyouts, it means Chiarelli’s got a good idea of what went wrong with Nikitin and Ference and knows how to fix them. That means Nikitin and Ference can be effective again, perhaps in a less pressured setting. This is just wild speculation, but I don’t have anything else.

  137. Doug McLachlan says:

    v4ance,

    Well if, and we find out very soon, the Oilers take Schultz to Arbitration, they have to accept the amount offered:

    That said, I suspect that they are pretty confident that Schultz doesn’t have much of a “win” here. Also, this is assuming that the thing even goes to arbitration. They can always settle.

    12.10 Walk-Away Rights for Player-Elected Salary Arbitration.

    (e) No Club shall be entitled to walk away from any award in a Club-elected salary
    arbitration.

  138. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil,

    I should add the numbers for Sekera

    2014/15 d-corsi / 60
    with Carolina = +1.35 (57 games)
    with L.A. = +10.35 (16 games)

    In Carolina, Sekera leaked shot attempts against but he more than made up for it with shot attempts for. In L.A., in a small sample, Sekera had a good effect on shot production AND shot suppression. Through the years, Sekera’s d-corsi has generally been positive.

    For completeness, it should be pointed out that Christian Ehrhoff had a negative d-corsi this last year in Pittsburgh (-1.75). This is not as low as Ference and it is his first negative d-corsi since 08/09 (and those two the only negative years in his whole career), but it is a reason for pause. His concussions last year may have impacted his play. Will he bounce back to his career average now that he’s concussion free? Did the concussions start a rapid decline?

    I still think he’s a good bet on a one-year contract if he’ll take it, but the Ehrhoff next year may not be the Ehrhoff of years past.

    Edit: Franson, for what it’s worth, has been positive every single year, including his time in Nashville.

  139. Doug McLachlan says:

    Hmmm, this is interesting to see in the evidence section of the CBA’s arbitration chapter:

    (h) Statistics.
    The League shall obtain and provide to the NHLPA any statistics relative to any
    aspect of Player performance: (i) kept or maintained by the League; or (ii) retained by any Club.
    The NHLPA shall provide to the League any statistics relative to any aspect of Player
    performance kept or maintained by the NHLPA. The Commissioner shall use his full authority
    to ensure each Club’s cooperation in the full and complete implementation of this provision.
    Such statistics shall be so provided within four (4) weeks after the conclusion of the Regular
    Season for Regular Season statistics and within two (2) weeks after the conclusion of the
    Playoffs for Playoff statistics. Such statistics shall be provided in electronic format if so
    maintained that way, otherwise they shall be provided in hard copy. The parties further agree
    that the January 10, 2003 grievance award regarding RTSS statistics shall remain in full force
    and effect for the term of this Agreement and shall be sent to the NHLPA electronically.

    The NHLPA has, by right of the CBA, “any statistics relative to any
    aspect of Player performance: (i) kept or maintained by the League; or (ii) retained by any Club.”

    Wonder if the NHLPA has a “fancy stats” expert to help agents move past the boxcars in their negotiations. Also interesting that the PA has, by right, access to advanced stats info of member clubs that they don’t share with each other. Wonder if that’s something that Walsh or some of the more “forceful” advocates take advantage of?

  140. Jon K says:

    Stanley 2018: Ference is a better Dman than Schultz or Aulie or Nikitin. He was playing :20+ minutes per night at 35 yrs old. Of course he wasn’t good, he was exhausted. Play him :10 minutes per night, with a capable sidekick and these new and improved 2 way FW’s, and TM will be able to squeeze another year out of him.

    Possible he improves with less ice-time, but I doubt it. Less ice-time isn’t going to prevent him from turning over the puck or making a bad pass whenever he is slightly pressured by a forechecker.

    I disagree with your suggestion that Ference is better than Schultz or Nikitin, two players I do not have any particular love for. Aulie is no longer on the team.

  141. Cameron says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Treliving I walk from almost any award that Jooris gets.

    Byron too.

    Interesting, if only because Byron and Jooris had superior corgis to Bouma.
    I like all three, but Byron has been passed by a # of prospects on the wing, and Jooris is unlikely to continue to improve at 25 from what he is now. Bouma can play anywhere in the bottom 6 and deliver truculence, so he’ll be kept.

  142. thejonrmcleod says:

    James Mirtle @mirtle
    Trade: Blackhawks acquire Liam Coughlin from the Oilers for goaltender Anders Nilsson.

    The big Liam Coughlin trade finally happened.

    Edit: Nilsson actually played well in the KHL last season. Originally drafted by the Islanders in the 3rd round. 25 years old.

  143. BrazilianOil says:

    Why an offer shet to Adam Larson hasn’t been discused?

  144. Doug McLachlan says:

    James Mirtle ‏@mirtle · 4m4 minutes ago
    Trade: Blackhawks acquire Liam Coughlin from the Oilers for goaltender Anders Nilsson.

  145. wordbird says:

    Hey look a new goalie. Sweet mask, too.

  146. Doug McLachlan says:

    Not an expert in goalie prospects by any means but a 1.71 GAA and .936 sv% over 38 games with Ak-Bars Kazan in the KHL sounds impressive.

  147. Doug McLachlan says:

    6′-5″ who turned down an extension with his KHL team. Very interesting. Is this the Bachman replacement?

  148. AsiaOil says:

    GCW_69: On Buffalo.When he was in St Louis he held his own and when he was with Minny last year he was 54.8%, so its not like he can’t do it anymore.

    The guy has it all in terms of tools but it’s always been about his head, defensive effort and bringing his A game every night – that’s been the problem. I watched him in the MIN-STL series and he was a really tough to handle on the boards in the offensive zone. I like the guy but he may need a wake-up call to realize that he’s a 2nd/3rd line guy who needs to be decent in his own zone if he want to stay in the league. If he did that he’s a very useful player.

  149. limit says:

    Kris11:
    Here’s a weird but possible lineup:

    CMD – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Lander – Purcell
    Hall – Drai – Yakupov
    Hendricks -Letestu – Korp

    I agree with this. CMD is suited for LW as a rookie. In Erie, whenever the Otters needed a goal, they would load up with Strome as C to take faceoffs and put CMD on the wing. CMD poaches for breakaways a la Bure, and he lets his wingers (Elie and Debrincat) do the dirty work in the D zone, so in this way CMD is more suited to the wing in the NHL as a rookie to lighten up his defensive responsibilities. CMD would work well at LW since his go-to moves work from the LEFT: 1) drive wide left, cut to net to backhand and then stuff it back forehand on shortside, and 2) drive wide left, go behind net and wraparound with one hand.

    With Drai, the opposite is the case where Drai’s signature move is to drive wide RIGHT to shield the puck with his body before using his backhand to dish the puck out front. Therefore, Drai tends to do his best work on the right side and would be suited more on RW than LW. His more physically mature stature could hold up better in d-zone battles as a NHL centre than CMD could at 18.

    So one possibility is start:
    CMD – Nuge – Eberle
    Hall – Lander – Drai
    Pouliot – Letestu – Yak
    Korp – Hendricks – Purcell

    and then as the season moves on:
    CMD – Nuge – Eberle
    Hall – Drai – Yak
    Pouliot – Lander – Purcell
    Korp – Letestu – Hendricks

    finally when CMD is ready for centre towards end of yr 1 or start year 2:
    Hall – CMD – Yak
    Pouliot – Nuge – Ebs
    Korp – Drai – Letestu
    Hendy – Lander – Purcell

    Run CMD-Nuge-Drai-Lander as 1-2-3-4 up the middle for the next 5 years, similar to how Pens had Sid-Geno-Staal-Talbot in the Stanley Cup win.

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