YOU CAN’T GO FAST ENOUGH TO GET THERE EARLY

Lots of talk last night about Brent Seabrook as an Oiler and for me that’s a problem. I didn’t like the payment for Griffin Reinhart but understood the idea. Seabrook is another matter.

IF you buy Seabrook, the assets required weaken the rebuild in a big way, robbing the team of useful assets for the future both in trade and in cap. The contract Seabrook will require (and Cam Talbot too, don’t forget) sends Edmonton careening toward the cap. As quickly as Niki Niktin and Teddy Purcell come off the books, that money goes to a Seabrook for a long time. Years. Six years? Maybe more. When we talk about Seabrook, he does have some things going for him in the short term:

  • Seabrook is a veteran
  • He’s righthanded
  • Any reasonable model of his career trajectory from now through the end of the decade involves several productive seasons
  • Chicago badly needs cap relief and may need to trade away multiple veterans for picks and useful youth.

seabrook boxcars and fancyThis is Seabrook in a box and you can see he’s a plus possession player while also getting a ZS push. We’ve talked many times about the Niklas Hjalmarsson pairing handling the heavy minutes and this shows Seabrook’s load over the last several seasons is a more offensive usage. I don’t like the Seabrook idea—not because he’s a poor fit—but rather because he’s going to cost a lot in assets and cap moving forward.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

chicago blue vollmanIf the Oilers are going to acquire Seabrook, I imagine the cost will be a young NHL-ready defenseman plus a pick and maybe a veteran to even up the money (a little). How many NHL-ready blue do the Oilers have? Three. Do you want to review the names? Me either. One more thing: The guy Edmonton needs in the Vollman? Niklas Hjalmarsson.

We can be certain that the ‘Hawks are capable of trading Seabrook, but the smart play (for them) is trading Patrick Sharp or Bryan Bickell. If Chiarelli is pushing hard and Chicago is listening, I’d have to think that the return ask is at least one young, inexpensive, flourishing NHL-ready defender. Step off, Chicago, step off.

GLENCROSS?

One name that’s still out there in free agency? Curtis Glencross.

glencross boxcars and fancyThis is a nice player and he does in fact fit the Pisani role. I’ve listed him as RW, but he can play LW too. Good speed, veteran, can check and play with skill. Why hasn’t he signed? Don’t know. Didn’t Edmonton already address this with Korpikoski? Yes. However, I love players who possess a range of skills, Glencross is a guy the Oilers could deploy on a skill line with all this youth.

OILERS CURRENT ROSTERoilers current roster july 7

The roster looks fairly set at this point. Among the top 12 forwards (as listed above) the only F I have listed for my RE as less than 100% to be on the team is Rob Klinkhammer—and even that’s a fairly certain spot. Among the bubbling under forwards, I’ll have Leon Draisaitl, Iiro Pakarinen and Andrew Miller as the first callups from the forward group, maybe Yak 2.0 because centers are always in demand. On the blueline, it’s a completely different story. I’m not at all certain Niki Nikitin will be here (buyout window) and remain confident Darnell Nurse is on the club opening night. Also expect substantial GP from Griffin Reinhart, Brandon Davidson and Jordan Oesterle. Four of the five goalies will probably see NHL action in 2015-16, with only the Finn on the outside looking in.

 YOU CAN’T GO FAST ENOUGH TO GET THERE EARLY

The Talbot bet. The Reinhart addition. The Sekera procurement. All of these moves are logical as part of a ‘journey home’ to the playoffs and a Stanley window of several years. All of them. From the drafting of McDavid to the selection of Ziyat Paigin, it’s all one completely reasonable march (even if I object to the cost of Reinhart). Trading Boyd Gordon (31) for Lauri Korpikoski (28) fits the model, as does Anders Nilsson—in what I would suggest is the most unusual trade of the summer.

Brent Seabrook? He’s 30, has over 750 hard games (plus 112 in the playoffs) of NHL play behind him and we know that NHL defensemen fade as they approach the 1,000 mark. So, that’s what? Three years of good play? Maybe he’s a freak and you get four. It’s going to cost you six or seven years of six or seven million to get him signed PLUS it’s going to cost you a very dear asset plus some other stuff.

You can’t go fast enough to get there early, and you can’t buy Brent Seabrook at 25.

FILE PHOTO: LA County Sheriff To Reportedly Reopen Investigation Into Natalie Wood's Death - Press Conference Today

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Big show today, moving parts so we’ll see how she goes. 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Seabrook, summer, McDavid changed everything.
  • Chris O’Leary, Edmonton Journal. HUGE game tomorrow night for the Eskimos, REDBLACKS are a powerhouse this year (!!!!!).
  • Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. Former NHL AGM and GM, current agent. We’ll talk about the free-agent crawl this summer, the cap and it’s impact and what hundreds of hockey players across NA are doing right now.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. If they trade for Seabrook, the schedule is flattened.

 

 

 

 

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213 Responses to "YOU CAN’T GO FAST ENOUGH TO GET THERE EARLY"

« Older Comments
  1. frjohnk says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    spoiler,

    I’m looking at http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

    and I see Seabrook with a 54.5% OZ start.Not the push that Rundblad and Timmonen got, to be sure, but not in the 30’s.Am I misreading this?

    Im thinking spoiler is looking at zone starts that includes the neutral zone as well. Vollmans chart does not include neutral zone starts.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    I switched accounts because my picture wouldn’t update. Now I can’t change the web link connected with my username. Ugh!

    Edit: Looks like that change finally took.

  3. Tire Fire says:

    spoiler: Thank you. I was thinking about some snarky response based on reading comprehension and you have saved me the effort.

    Unless I’m misreading you?

    Hard to focus on words with “Steve Smith’s” “stick” buried in my “eye”.Although I would like to “loan it” to Jerry.

    I hope you’ve got blue or green eyes, if not….

  4. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: Im thinking spoiler is looking at zone starts that includes the neutral zone as well. Vollmans chart does not include neutral zone starts.

    Correct. I always look at the fullest picture possible.

  5. spoiler says:

    Tire Fire: I hope you’ve got blue or green eyes, if not….

    I do have blue or green eyes!

  6. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    They don’t knock on your door?

    All the time. I tell them I grew up Jehovah’s Witness and am not interested. They mark me as “NI” and that’s it. I’m always courteous because they’re good people and the young ones will have been born into it.

  7. oilswell says:

    Lowetide: Yep. If it was a second and Dillon Simpson, it would be done

    Sure. Yet the narrative on Talbot was that other buyers had to drop off until the best offer left was settled on. If that’s the case (big “if”) the sentence could be “If anyone else offered more than a second and Simpson it would be done”. Unlikely but the delay here could very well be waiting out the seller not the buyers.

  8. dustrock says:

    Someone on HFB said there couldn’t be 20, let alone 15 d-men in the league better than Seabrook.

    Here was my list. Boy, did some people disagree with most of it. My point was that age, point production, and acquisition cost/cap hit have to factor in as well.

    Doughty
    Keith
    Giordano
    Chara
    Karlsson
    Hedman
    Stralman
    Hamilton
    Byfuglien
    Burns
    McDonagh
    Subban
    Josi
    Weber
    Suter
    Pietrangelo
    OEL
    Vlasic

  9. Messier11edm says:

    How about this idea….Wait…see what we have with our newly, upgraded defence, along with a coach who is the best we’ve had in quite some time. We aren’t going to win the cup in the first 3-4 months of the season, and frankly we may find that what we have isn’t too bad and buys us time to get a dman that is actually on his way up, and not on his way down. In addition, it allows us to also get a better assessment of our forwards – which ones are keepers, and which ones are expendable.

    Wouldn’t this be the wiser move than trading for a dman that would require a huge payout, and term, as well as assets for which we may not have an accurate reading on?

  10. EternalFrost says:

    Loved Glencross’ compete in his brief audition with the Oilers. Was pissed they didn’t re-sign him. He’s still a useful guy a few years on. I’d sign him.

  11. malinpaul says:

    Soup Fascist,

    I clearly said I believe that is an overpay. The point is WHAT WILL IT TAKE. Everyone believes a karlsson is impossible to get, and I say – what does it take? We have the assets to trade.

    And we will not be winning a ton of cups without a real Norris level guy.

  12. Soup Fascist says:

    malinpaul,

    You won’t win without forwards either. Nashville has a great defence and has not had a sniff. A huge overpay hurts the team, whether trying to get a tender, Dman or forwards.

  13. Hello says:

    Let our D develop in this first year and see what we got. We don’t need to strip prospects cause we’re not running for the cup this year!!

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