BULLITT!

Peter Chiarelli’s Oilers are going to be bullet fast, based on the changes he’s made so far this summer. Coming in are Connor McDavid, Lauri Korpikoski and Mark Letestu—all faster and quicker than their predecessors (Derek Roy, Matt Fraser and Boyd Gordon). He also added a mobile defender in Andrej Sekera, who should help Oscar Klefbom and Mark Fayne in cutting down on chaos in the important moments of the game.

Todd McLellan’s job will involve bringing some semblance of structure to the roster, something that has been an issue at times over the last several seasons. Has Peter Chiarelli given McLellan enough?

  • Elliotte Friedman: The Oilers filed for arbitration with Justin Schultz, although no one would be surprised if an agreement is reached beforehand. What this does is it allows the team another buyout window and speculation is Nikita Nikitin could be a victim. The team doesn’t need the cap room now, so doesn’t it make sense to keep him for his final year instead of wasting $1.5 million next season when you might need the space? Source

I think Mr. Friedman’s wording frames the issue perfectly. When he writes ‘the team doesn’t need the cap room now’ he’s absolutely correct. Chiarelli opted to open the window in case an opportunity arises, which goes with his methods from the Boston years. Chiarelli is aggressive in-season and likes veteran options. Back in May, I wrote the following about his time with the Bruins:

  • Faced with a large roster problem, Chiarelli preferred veteran options all down the line in Boston. In the last five years, with a contender, he overpaid for Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley, Tomas Kaberle, Joe Corvo, Brian Rolston, Loui Eriksson, Andrej Meszaros, Brett Connolly. While it’s true he was looking to remain a Stanley Cup contender, it’s also true he liked veterans long before the Bruins were winning. I believe he’ll keep the golden kids but we’re going to see picks and lesser prospects sent away this summer. The Oilers will be better in goal, on defense and more veteran up front in that middle area, in that 3line slot. Candidates to satisfy the incoming assets include Martin Marincin (poor bugger), the pick at No. 33 and cap room. It’s been a wild five weeks, and the next six may be just as crazy. The summer of Connor is non-stop action. As they used to say in the old monster-truck radio commercials, they’ll sell you the whole seat but you’ll only need the edge. Source

So, we could see Chiarelli’s summer, but what about the rest of the year? Well, based on his in-season activity as a new GM in Boston, I can’t see him resting with this defensive group. No way. The only thing that might change his mind? McLellan’s touch, McLellan’s opinion.

 

  • Todd McLellan: “As a coach I believe most of us are wired to show the players ‘how’, but I don’t think we take the time to get them to understand ‘why’.” Source

 

We simply don’t know what kind of impact Todd McLellan will have on this team. That’s the next step in the process, with the understanding that Peter Chiarelli is back at base trying to find that veteran option. You and I may not like the solution, Brent Seabrook (as an example) is going to be expensive, Brent Burns too. I don’t know how many Seabrook’s are out there, know even less about when or how they’ll come available. So far, Peter Chiarelli has been aggressive once the market reveals something of value. Suspect we’ll see that again when another option makes itself available.

I think Friedman’s comments are on target. The buyout window could mean something, or nothing. It’s all based on when that elusive top drawer blue comes on the market. I bet we get our three-for-one, same day.

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188 Responses to "BULLITT!"

  1. RexLibris says:

    I would have liked to see a reference to Steve McQueen’s turtleneck sweater in this post.

    Disappointed again.

    ———-

    I recall Chiarelli saying he wasn’t wedded to the BigHeavy that Boston became known for because when he was in Ottawa they focused on speed and skill instead.

    I think we’re seeing that flexibility now. He identifies the strengths of the team (speed, in this case) and then adds complementary pieces that support and capitalize on that strength.

    They need a mobile defenseman who can make an accurate 20 foot pass. Otherwise it negates the speed of the forwards if they have to come back or stop skating to receive the puck.

  2. Rondo says:

    If I had a choice between Burns , Seabrook and Vlasic I would choose Vlasic.

  3. LMHF#1 says:

    The window had better mean something. They need another quality player badly and there are some good fits. Can’t leave your ace group of forwards and new goalie so exposed.

  4. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    The window had better mean something. They need another quality player badly and there are some good fits. Can’t leave your ace group of forwards and new goalie so exposed.

    Can’t spend 2016-20 cap on less than stellar options either.

  5. Really? says:

    Does Spurgeon from the Wild qualify as a stellar option.

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: Can’t spend 2016-20 cap on less than stellar options either.

    No need for term. These remaining UFAs are going to have to choose and some will pick 1-2 yrs.

  7. spoiler says:

    Get Schultz signed, open the buyout window, buyout one of FN, sign Ehrhoff… if he hasn’t already promised to sign with Bowman for broken peanut shells and half a roll of tape.

  8. mujidog says:

    Ference is signed for 2 more years $3.35M per. Ehrhoff may sign somewhere (here?) for less/equal term AND cap hit. Crazy.

  9. jonrmcleod says:

    Friedman writes, “The team doesn’t need the cap room now, so doesn’t it make sense to keep him for his final year instead of wasting $1.5 million next season when you might need the space?”

    Needing cap space is not the only reason for teams buying out players. The Sabres bought out Cody Hodgson. They have tons of cap space. Sometimes you just don’t want a player around anymore.

  10. Clay says:

    I just can’t see Chiarelli blowing his wad on a Seabrook who only has a handfull of top-tier seasons left. He’s already walked away from a “cheaper deal” for Hamilton who has 8+ more years of useful tread on the tires, and arguably a higher ceiling.

    The ask for Hamilton was less (or at best a saw off), his contract was for less cap than Seabrook will demand, and he’d be useful for the entire contract, and potentially more.

  11. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1: No need for term. These remaining UFAs are going to have to choose and some will pick 1-2 yrs.

    We don’t know that, though. Completely agree on a one-year deal if it’s available. Ehrhoff or Franson may get several year offers.

  12. Halfwise says:

    Having a buyout option available really changes the conversation between Chiarelli and TCAF.

    We already know Chiarelli’s view of Ference’s value; two years ago Chiarelli let him walk rather than extend his veteran leadership in Boston. TCAF has not got better or younger, and the West is harder to play in than the East because of both travel and style of play.

    But Chiarelli is a grown-up and a gent compared to the BOTB (Sheldon Souray says Hi) and probably would prefer Andrew Ference to retire gracefully. Ference may not want to retire at all, he’s human.

    Offer TCAF a community outreach ambassador post at the same money that he’d get on a buyout, conditional on Ference retiring. Let him know that if he doesn’t retire, he’ll be bought out.

    If TCAF retires, go use the buyout on someone else. Hell, they could even trade for a buyout candidate, just to buy him out, if (say) NN is penciled in to start in Edmonton and if the cash-strapped other team included something of value.

  13. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: We don’t know that, though. Completely agree on a one-year deal if it’s available. Ehrhoff or Franson may get several year offers.

    Then our favorite Lubomir can come on down at least.

  14. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1: Then our favorite Lubomir can come on down at least.

    I’d love to see that. Seriously.

  15. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    If I had a choice between Burns , Seabrook and VlasicI would choose Vlasic.

    Agreed, and it’s not really close.

    No way SJS gives him up though, Wilson said recently that they still needed to add D after getting Martin.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’d love to see that. Seriously.

    Lubo.

    The only thing worth watching during the reign of OTC and then he got called Barbara Anne Scott.

    Man.

  17. bendelson says:

    Question:

    If you are Nurse or Reinhart, do you ASK to play on the rightside going into camp or do you prefer to stay with your strength on the left? Does the answer change if both are sent to Bakersfield?

    If you are the Oilers and send both players down to start the season, do you play both on the left or ask one to transition to the right in the AHL?

    It seems one of the two,will have to make the change at some point down the line. When?
    ASAP or not until absolutely required (things can change)?

  18. Woodguy says:

    Clay:
    I just can’t see Chiarelli blowing his wad on a Seabrook who only has a handfull of top-tier seasons left.He’s already walked away from a “cheaper deal” for Hamilton who has 8+ more years of useful tread on the tires, and arguably a higher ceiling.

    The ask for Hamilton was less (or at best a saw off), his contract was for less cap than Seabrook will demand, and he’d be useful for the entire contract, and potentially more.

    I pray to all of my household gods that you are right.

    Chiarelli’s biggest failing in BOS was too much money and term for middling players who won it all.

    I hope that he has learned.

    He seems smart, so I hope so.

    A gigantic leap past having Ference and Clarkson as your 2 big adds with all kinds of money and term though.

    I’d feel better if MacT wasn’t in the org.

  19. Cameron says:

    RexLibris:
    I would have liked to see a reference to Steve McQueen’s turtleneck sweater in this post.

    Disappointed again.

    ———-

    They need a mobile defenseman who can make an accurate 20 foot pass. Otherwise it negates the speed of the forwards if they have to come back or stop skating to receive the puck.

    It’s a TACTICAL turtleneck, a ‘Tactineck’ if you will. – Archer

    Were I an Oilers fan I’d be worried less about the speed of the forwards, and a lot more worried about the mobility and speed of the D.

    Given that Sekera is essentially just replacing Petry (IIRC a guy with +wheels), I don’t see any real improvement coming as far as speed from the blue.

  20. Lowetide says:

    The turtleneck is implied.

  21. StrathOil says:

    https://public.tableau.com/views/5PlayerUnits/PlayerSearch

    Interesting new 5 man units corsi graphic.

    First thing I see, keep Ference far away from Schultz. Not that we didn’t know that.

  22. G Money says:

    If a guy to make those tape-to-tape breakout passes is the big need, maybe Seabrook is the guy after all.

    Some pretty glowing observations from D. Staples.

    In terms of offence, that is what Seabrook excels at, quickly picking up the puck in the d-zone and just as quickly moving it up the boards or up ice to one of his forwards. He doesn’t hesitate, but whips it good and fast, most often right on the tape.

    In the o-zone, he makes sharp passes and even sharper shots. His slapper has some real bite. He’s a smooth skater, not fast by NHL standards, but plenty fast at this point to shut-down speedy attackers.

    That’s based on just two games observation, but then, that’s also on the enormous stage of the SCF, and against a pretty skilled team in TBay.

  23. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    If a guy to make those tape-to-tape breakout passes is the big need, maybe Seabrook is the guy after all.

    Some pretty glowing observations from D. Staples.

    In terms of offence, that is what Seabrook excels at, quickly picking up the puck in the d-zone and just as quickly moving it up the boards or up ice to one of his forwards. He doesn’t hesitate, but whips it good and fast, most often right on the tape.


    In the o-zone, he makes sharp passes and even sharper shots. His slapper has some real bite. He’s a smooth skater, not fast by NHL standards, but plenty fast at this point to shut-down speedy attackers.

    That’s based on just two games observation, but then, that’s also on the enormous stage of the SCF, and against a pretty skilled team in TBay.

    It’s vital. Why would they waste a moment of McDavid by sending clunkers up the middle. Tape-to-tape, it’s all about the passing.

  24. jonrmcleod says:

    Cameron: It’s a TACTICAL turtleneck, a ‘Tactineck’ if you will. – Archer

    Were I an Oilers fan I’d be worried less about the speed of the forwards, and a lot more worried about the mobility and speed of the D.

    Given that Sekera is essentially just replacing Petry (IIRC a guy with +wheels), I don’t see any real improvement coming as far as speed fromthe blue.

    This guy is DSF-lite, but no one ever replies to him.

  25. Dee Dee says:

    Can any of the stats folks explain the first two charts at:

    http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

    Hero charts look cool, but don’t understand the first two impact charts.

  26. Cameron says:

    jonrmcleod: This guy is DSF-lite, but no one ever replies to him.

    …You just did ☺

    Seriously though, I get you guys are all rapturous about McDavid (I’d be too were he a Flame), but I wouldn’t expect anything to improve ‘speed wise’ with additions like Gryba to the blue.

    That said, I’ve long thought that Nikitin is fighting some kind of injury (his back being my guess), as he just isnt the defender he was in CLB. If that is true, and he’s better, you might get internal improvement from the least likely source.

  27. Dashingsilverfox says:

    jonrmcleod: This guy is DSF-lite, but no one ever replies to him.

    Of course, he is right.

    Sekera may be an improvement on Petry,,,but I’d wager not by much.

    Gryba is a 3rd pairing D who likely won’t play much in any event and is hardly a huge improvement.

    For those of you thinking Korpikoski is a top 6 winger as I’ve seen here in the past couple of days, you may want to check out the Coyotes fan base who couldn’t be happier he’s leaving town.

    He’s a very expensive bottom 6 forward who is paid in the same range as Brandon Prust and Derek Dorsett and certainly doesn’t bring as much to the party.

    I agree with Cameron that an improvement on D is going to have to be internal since Chiarelli has just been shuffling deck chairs while the Flames added a legit #1D to an already stacked D core.

  28. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    If a guy to make those tape-to-tape breakout passes is the big need, maybe Seabrook is the guy after all.

    Some pretty glowing observations from D. Staples.

    In terms of offence, that is what Seabrook excels at, quickly picking up the puck in the d-zone and just as quickly moving it up the boards or up ice to one of his forwards. He doesn’t hesitate, but whips it good and fast, most often right on the tape.


    In the o-zone, he makes sharp passes and even sharper shots. His slapper has some real bite. He’s a smooth skater, not fast by NHL standards, but plenty fast at this point to shut-down speedy attackers.

    That’s based on just two games observation, but then, that’s also on the enormous stage of the SCF, and against a pretty skilled team in TBay.

    Staples scouted Oleksiak and came away convinced that the Oilers needed to trade Hall or Eberle for him.

    He’s below MacT on my “look at what they about Dmen with interest” scale.

    True Story.

  29. kinger_OIL says:

    Cam – I’m with you: very worried about the backend. As you say Sekera replaces Petry +/-, and as I’ve pointed out before:
    – you are hoping for a lot of hope with FSM that this year will be different, because we be just better
    – Klef straight lining,
    – Nurse/Griff in the line-up full time
    – Gryba: is grit more effective than MM as the 6th D?

  30. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    I can’t wait to see Seabrook as an Oiler, so we can hate him like Khabibulin or Ference. With the sole difference that he’ll cover his contract for 2 seasons.

  31. Doug McLachlan says:

    jonrmcleod: This guy is DSF-lite, but no one ever replies to him.

    Cameron is many things but he’s no DSF. Total Flames fan scarred as a child from watching his hometown heroes falling just short when they ran into the generational talent up the highway.

    He brings the arguments with facts (and some blinders vis-a-vis the Flames and wide-wingspaned Penguins – can’t wait to see Driasaitl crushing his dreams moving forward) but he recognizes valid arguments where they exist.

    Which brings us to his comment. I don’t think Chia will be satisfied with the d-corp as currently constructed but even as currently assembled I have convinced myself that the Oilers D has improved from god awful to bad/below average.

    That said, what have they added in Sekera beyond replacing the under-valued Petry? It’s a fair comment. What is the case that the D has improved? Is there another D that is worse?

  32. G Money says:

    jonrmcleod: This guy is DSF-lite, but no one ever replies to him.

    Ha, yeah in fairness, Cameron’s a Flames Fan, with all the flaws that entails.

    But as a poster of value, in my books he’s many leagues above DSF.

  33. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Does this mean we are back on for our annual bet?

    (Honestly, I only like Scotch when I win it from you)

  34. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Staples scouted Oleksiak and came away convinced that the Oilers needed to trade Hall or Eberle for him.

    He’s below MacT on my “look at what they about Dmen with interest” scale.

    True Story.

    Maybe so, but from the Chicargo games I’ve watched, Staples’ take on Seabrook doesn’t contradict anything I’ve observed.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    Been taking about Semin as a discount pick up over at CnB. Even though his offence cratered last year, his corsi stats remained very strong.

    If you could get Semin on a one year redemption deal, you could run:

    Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle

    Hall – McDavid – Semin (that’s a lot of corsi protection)

    Purcell – Lander – Yakupov

    Korpse – Letestu – Klinkhammer

    And trade Hendricks at his peak value.

    Three scoring lines. Good shelter for McDavid and Yak at the same time. Music…

  36. Optimism is Foolish says:

    With all this Seabrook talk …..

    having him for a few years would improve our back end. No if and’s or buts about it. Now after that what is to stop us from trading him for similar assets as what it takes to acquire him. This is so long as Chia doesn’t pooch the contract.

  37. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: I’d feel better if MacT wasn’t in the org.

    True dat!!!!!

    Of course, I said that before he came back. But no one here would listen.

  38. Doug McLachlan says:

    Cameron:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Does this mean we are back on for our annual bet?

    (Honestly, I only like Scotch when I win it from you)

    Scotch helps dull the pain, ’tis true.

    Curious to see how sweet victory scotch tastes.

    Bring it. My suggestion would be Old Pulteney.

  39. GCW_69 says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    With all this Seabrook talk …..

    having him for a few years would improve our back end.No if and’s or buts about it.Now after that what is to stop us from trading him for similar assets as what it takes to acquire him.This is so long as Chia doesn’t pooch the contract.

    If the cost is Schultz and a pick and the contract is under seven, you take the gamble. If the cost is Klefbom and a pick, and the contract is over seven, pass.

  40. Hammers says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    I can’t wait to see Seabrook as an Oiler, so we can hate him like Khabibulin or Ference.With the sole difference that he’ll cover his contract for 2 seasons.

  41. Optimism is Foolish says:

    GCW_69,

    I would do it if it were a 1st round pick plus prospects.

    I think they could get a similar return in a few years and this may be how we define Chia’s time in power. It is essential he brings pieces to help us win and sells them off when he can for the highest prices he can. Restocking the pipeline using players in their early to mid 30’s will allow us to keep the youthful and cheap contracts coming.

  42. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Maybe so, but from the Chicargo games I’ve watched, Staples’ take on Seabrook doesn’t contradict anything I’ve observed.

    Seabrook is a tricky conversation.

    It’s not a matter of yes/no.

    It’s a matter of:

    1) what goes back the other way?
    2) how long is his Oiler contract?
    3) what is the aav?

    There are many scenarios where he’s a great pick up and many where it’s awful.

    For me it’s:
    1) no top 12 F or D named Klef, Nurse or Reinhart, or 2016 first
    2) 3 years ideal, 5 ok, 7 no go
    3) depends, goes down as term goes up.
    4) If they take Schultz back I might add the 2016 1st

  43. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Doug McLachlan: Scotch helps dull the pain, ’tis true.

    Curious to see how sweet victory scotch tastes.

    Bring it. My suggestion would be Old Pulteney.

    You might be curious for a while…

    Is Old Pulteney your choice for this years payoff?

    More importantly to this thread, the answer is ‘No’, I believe Edm has the worst DCorps in the league.

  44. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: True dat!!!!!

    Of course, I said that before he came back.But no one here would listen.

    I really thought he’d be much better.

    My bad.

  45. G Money says:

    Cameron raises a valid point on the D.

    I don’t think anyone believes this D is a finished product, or a particularly improved one over the last year – least of all Chia.

    I’ve been banging the Sekera drum for a while, and when Chia actually delivered, I started banging the Ehrhoff drum (and will continue until he signs, either here or somewhere else). Adding Ehrhoff is a legit improvement.

    That’s because on paper, with “-Petry +Sekera”, the Oiler D does not look improved overall other than the fact that there will be more ferocious competition (and therefore one would expect better players than e.g. Hunt, Aulie) on the bottom pairing.

    And that’s most likely how it will be – without anyone else added, or unless Nurse and/or Reinhart step up and show NHL quality play out of the gate, the forwards will be much better but the D will remain among the bottom 5.

    However, I think there is one, just one, scenario not involving Nurse/Reinhart/new guy where the D actually might be significantly improved over last year.

    I think this because all of these things were true the last couple of years:

    – Klefbom/Schultz were the primary o zone pairing last year

    – this left Petry-Ference as the primary “shutdown” pairing last year,

    – this left Ference regularly playing Top 4 minutes and against tough competition. Ference is no longer capable of doing that, and hasn’t been for several years

    – This dragged the effectiveness of Petry and the pairing down substantially

    – Meanwhile, Mark Fayne was left to face the toughest zone starts and toughest competition. He did a very credible job of this while with NJD, paired with a competent puck-moving D in Greene. He had to do the same thing in Edmonton paired variously with Marincin, Nikitin, Klefbom, and Aulie. He drowned in this role.

    So, here’s the one area where a dramatic improvement in the D might be seen next year.

    If Sekera and Fayne play together, find chemistry, and can reproduce to some extent the effectiveness of the Fayne-Greene pairing in NJD, the Oilers will have a legitimate shutdown pairing. This alone would be a substantive improvement. They shut very few teams down last year.

    This would leave the bottom pairing to face modest minutes, easier zone starts and the easier competition, as they should. If he does make the roster, Ference – and he probably shouldn’t make the roster if fair’s fair – will be more suited and more effective in that role than in a Top 4 role.

    Better still, hopefully two of Gryba / Reinhart / Nurse (and maybe even a resurgent Nikitin) win out the bottom pairing roles.

    This means we would go from this:

    Petry-Ference – ineffective shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering
    Fayne-some guy – kill zone (starts, competition) pairing getting their heads kicked in

    to

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    That would be a major improvement over last year.

    It’s a big if, but not out of the realm of possibility.

    I’d still rather Chia go get Ehrhoff and then the defense is improved over next year, no ifs ands or buts, but if not …

  46. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: If the cost is Schultz and a pick and the contract is under seven, you take the gamble.If the cost is Klefbom and a pick, and the contract is over seven, pass.

    Agreed.

  47. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes, I’m not advocating Seabrook as the guy. As I’ve said many times, the only reason I would go get Seabrook is because he’s a cap dump and might be available cheap. If he’s not cheap, I stay away.

    However, if you believe that making tape-to-tape zone exit passes is a critically important skill, and if you buy Staples’ assertion that he particularly excels in that aspect of the game, then the perceived value of getting Seabrook, even for a year, becomes quite a bit higher.

  48. Doug McLachlan says:

    Oh gods people, Seabrook is so far down the list of Chicago’s cap-crunch solutions and then I would look to the Eastern Conference as a destination.

    That doesn’t mean there aren’t other options for Chia to make an improvement, as we’ve discussed.

    One player I mentioned going into FA frenzy, and I see LT mentioned recently was Matt Irwin. Like Oduya is waiting for Chicago to sign him, I wonder if Irwin is waiting to rejoin the coach who gave him his NHL shot.

  49. BrazilianOil says:

    Woodguy,

    We are a playoff team with Seabrook ? If the answer is yes, he is worth the 2016 1round ( and Schultz) for sure ,and 5 x 7mill seems ok to me.

  50. flyfish1168 says:

    Chia may prefer veterans but that his how he got into trouble with the CAP space in beantown. Draft picks maturing into the organization is the best way of controlling the CAP. I like to have a very long run. At this point we very well may have 2 sets of core players. If we play our cards correctly this can be the envy of all other teams.

  51. G Money says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Irwin did a credible job last year, but he had the second easiest QualComp and the second easiest zone starts on the team. That makes him a third pairing guy. We don’t need another one of those!

    I’d rather Ehrhoff, injury risk be damned. Prior to last years injury-riddled campaign, Ehrhoff has a history of doing well overall, even when faced with tougher starts and tougher competition. He’s legitimately an NHL Top 4 D, and even a top pairing D in a pinch.

    If he can be signed without giving up too much in the way of term, he’s by far and away my first choice in the UFA market.

  52. judgedrude says:

    BrazilianOil,

    7 mil a season (beyond this one remember) seems a bit rich moving forward. Moving past his peak, he shouldn’t get too much more than his current contract. I think a contract of 8,7,6,5,4 (6mil cap) would be preferred as it pays him now and then is easier to deal to a cap-floor team in latter years.

  53. Alsker says:

    Woodguy: I pray to all of my household gods that you are right.

    Chiarelli’s biggest failing in BOS was too much money and term for middling players who won it all.

    I hope that he has learned.

    He seems smart, so I hope so.

    A gigantic leap past having Ference and Clarkson as your 2 big adds with all kinds of money and term though.

    I’d feel better if MacT wasn’t in the org.

    Exactly!!!! Your last line shouts precisely what all Oiler fans wish were true.

  54. malinpaul says:

    people underestimate the value of a Duncan Keith, Zdeno Chara, or Drew Doughty. As much as I love having lots of options for 3rd pairing D, and tons of talented forwards, we need to figure out how to get a real Norris candidate on our team. Preferably one that will bolt on to the McDavid cluster (so 23-26 now). That’s a really short list, but I think it will be worth the pretty penny it will cost.

  55. BrazilianOil says:

    judgedrude,

    Of course your option is better, i don’t know if he takes it.

    My point is that with him i think we have a good roster for the next year and a very good one between 2016 – 2019.

  56. speeds says:

    Ignoring the acquisition cost via trade, if you were the GM and Seabrook were a UFA next summer, what’s the most you’d be willing to pay for him (assuming this year goes more or less like the last couple seasons for him)?

  57. David says:

    speeds:
    Ignoring the acquisition cost via trade, ifyou were the GM and Seabrook were a UFA next summer, what’s the most you’d be willing to pay for him (assuming this year goes more or less like the last couple seasons for him)?

    6 million cap hit per year for 4 years. Money front loaded. I don’t think he’d sign that but I wouldn’t cry over it. I prefer we stay away from Seabrook.

  58. sliderule says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    While we are checking that out you can check out why Bruins thought Dougie worried too much about offence and not enough about defence.

  59. Thor762 says:

    Something else that should be factored into the conversation regarding Seabrook as someone mentioned the other day in a previous post.

    Expansion draft. Highly likely that there will be expansion in the next 2-3 years.

    I think according to a recent article I read a team can protect one goalie, 5 D, 9F. Or 2G, 3D, and 5F.

    If Seabrook isn’t performing to his contract at that time he could be left unprotected. Would a new expansion team not want a Seabrook to start their season? Veteran 3 time cup winner.

    As Woodguy has mentioned in the past, don’t discount fame in the decision making process of GM’s.

  60. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    Wow, DSF still gets to post here.

    I’m done.

    Cya LT.

  61. kinger_OIL says:

    The competition for 5/6 D on the OIL is really hotting up: incumbents FSN and new-comers Nurse/Griff and Gryba. 6 for 2. Not to mention one of those 6 who don’t make it will win the consolation prize:

    Top 4 D!

    As an aside: in NYC with the family on our first family road trip: it’s fun to see my 5 year old explore and discover this great city: he now walks around thinking he can waive down any taxi, anytime!

  62. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money,

    If a buyout gets us the space, and it does, I see Irwin as a 3rd pair that Nurse/Reinhart have to get over. That’s part of the new “compete for your job” thinking. He also comes in at a low enough price that you are not prevented from getting an Ehrhoff.

    I think barring a pump and dump, we have Schultz at least until the trade deadline and, given his age and the hope that NHL coaching can find the light switch inside, that is something I can live with. I think he’ll be better this year (if only because it is hard to see how he gets any worse).

    The other parts of the NSF d-corp, Nikitin and Ference, are NOT good enough to block out Nurse and Reinhart from being gifted a spot so if you move Nikitin and Ference out (buyout or trade) you have to back fill with legit NHL d-men.

  63. Lowetide says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    Wow, DSF still gets to post here.

    I’m done.

    Cya LT.

    You bet. All the best.

  64. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Ignoring the acquisition cost via trade, ifyou were the GM and Seabrook were a UFA next summer, what’s the most you’d be willing to pay for him (assuming this year goes more or less like the last couple seasons for him)?

    Four years, $6 million. That’s probably two years too long but I’m weak.

  65. McSorley33 says:

    G Money,

    How many -legit -1st pairing D-men are 33 years old or older?

  66. stush18 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Of course, he is right.

    Sekera may be an improvement on Petry,,,but I’d wager not by much.

    Gryba is a 3rd pairing D who likely won’t play much in any event and is hardly a huge improvement.

    For those of you thinking Korpikoski is a top 6 winger as I’ve seen here in the past couple of days, you may want to check out the Coyotes fan base who couldn’t be happier he’s leaving town.

    He’s a very expensive bottom 6 forward who is paid in the same range as Brandon Prust and Derek Dorsett and certainly doesn’t bring as much to the party.

    I agree with Cameron that an improvement on D is going to have to be internal since Chiarelli has just been shuffling deck chairs while the Flames added a legit #1D to an already stacked D core.

    You’re actually right on some of these points.

    1) sekera is a slightly better version of petry
    2) chia willowy likely be looking at internal growth/rebound year
    3) gryba is a 3rd pairing guy.

    I think korpokoski is a better option than priest or dorsett. He doesn’t have the grit either of those two have, but he also has slightly better offense than either of them.

    I’ve been saying since before mcdavid, since January, that 2016-17 is the year we make a run for it. There are just too any holes to fill, and the internal growth will be reaching its threshold.

  67. stevezie says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Last time i.promise: Dsf and cam are right about this.Sekera replaces Petry and is good but not elite. The D is one year of development improved from last year’s inadequacy.

    Probably not enough.

  68. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, did you post anything about Conte being let go by NJ?

    If Nicholson-Chiarelli are adopting the Team Canada “many minds” approach, I can’t imagine a more valuable “old man” in the room than Conte. Even if all he does is ask smart questions of the scouts when they make the lists, he’ll pay for his salary by the 3rd round.

    I tweeted out that he’s now the #1 Free Agent out there.

  69. pocession charge says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    Wow, DSF still gets to post here.

    I’m done.

    Cya LT.

    Once when I was seven, I got mad at my friends on the baseball diamond and took my ball home.

  70. Doug McLachlan says:

    stevezie,

    Agreed. I think you can actual NHL coaching to the list along with development but not enough.

    That said, Chia and McLellan don’t know what these guys (F and D) are capable of so how can they reasonably estimate Yakupov or Eberle (let alone Driasaitl’s) value.

  71. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide: Four years, $6 million. That’s probably two years too long but I’m weak.

    If his agent countered with 5 years at 6.5 AAV you would say no?

  72. ASkoreyko says:

    stevezie:
    jonrmcleod,

    Last time i.promise: Dsf and cam are right about this.Sekera replaces Petry and is good but not elite. The D is one year of development improved from last year’s inadequacy.

    Probably not enough.

    DSF is absolutely right, anyone that really tries to argue otherwise needs to get over the McDavid high.

    Chia essentially covered for MacT’s failures and made a few improvements. MacT still left him some legacy garbage that he needs to clean out either this summer or next year.

    Honestly, it is a shame that MacT/Howson are allowed to stick around after those two colluded on such a terrible decision to go out and get Nikitin and let Petry walk. That single decision really hurt the Oilers not only last season but the upcoming season as well. Petry is replaceable (Sekera) but that extra year on Nikitin’s deal really hurts when someone like Erhoff could possibly be picked up for cheap. Couple that with Ference being half-way into his deal and already questionable for top-6 duty and you have more than enough fireable evidence to even make a HR department happy.

    That being said, we can’t change it now and one more year of ‘measured improvement’ and we can get most of the crap off the roster.

    I think DSF’s comments always stung more when you knew he was right but there was no hope things would get better. I still firmly believe that things will get better, it just sadly requires yet more patience from everyone involved.

    Good thing McDavid will distract all of us for a little while!

  73. G Money says:

    McSorley33,

    I don’t know. Why do you ask?

  74. G Money says:

    I think the Esks loss a few weeks ago angried up their blood.

  75. Iztok Turk says:

    Dashingsilverfox: fox

    Loooong time lurker (summer ’06), infrequent poster.

    With all due respect……….. His looong goodbye told me he was gone; he stated he was gone. As good as the usual banter is on here pertaining to any given topic, dsf does not contribute (whether as a contrarian or otherwise).

    Not sure why some are willing to go to bat for him/her.

    IMHO He’s simply detrimental to the spirit of this blog.

  76. Lowetide says:

    pocession charge: If his agent countered with 5 years at 6.5 AAV you would say no?

    Five years is too long imo.

  77. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Yes, I’m not advocating Seabrook as the guy.As I’ve said many times, the only reason I would go get Seabrook is because he’s a cap dump and might be available cheap.If he’s not cheap, I stay away.

    However, if you believe that making tape-to-tape zone exit passes is a critically important skill, and if you buy Staples’ assertion that he particularly excels in that aspect of the game, then the perceived value of getting Seabrook, even for a year, becomes quite a bit higher.

    Sure.

    Seabrook is the best RHD on the Oilers the second he’s an Oiler.

    Whether or not he would do well in the role they give him is a different question.

    Out of the top 3 CHI Dmen to spend time with Hjarlmasson getting the shit zone starts in the past 3 years his results are the worst.

    Which means he’s might not be as good in that quadrant as Oduya.

    That includes just looking at last year when its been agreed that Oduya had an off year.

    If he gets hired to play in that quadrant with Sekera, it might not be pretty.

    Add to that the cost of acquiring him and his cap hit and it could make Ference’s contract look like a walk in the park.

    Many variables in that discussion.

    Also,

    Saying ” if you believe that making tape-to-tape zone exit passes is a critically important skill, ” sounds like you used to sell insurance.

    “Sir, do you think your family is important?”

  78. pocession charge says:

    V.XIV.VI.I: Awesome.

    So the guy who says the most obviously retarded, troll things gets to post, over the protests of the majority of your readers.

    The guy who argues the value of giving an aging, injury-prone defenceman gets show the gate?

    K.

    I’m disappointed.

    Is ignoring him not a legitimate option anymore?

  79. geowal says:

    I don’t see how what Cameron said is even debatable. We’ve replaced Petry with Sekera (plus, we hope) , Marincin with Gryba (plus, I guess, since, actually playing vs being in minors.) The rest is rooted entirely on hope. The hope that some combination of Nurse/reinhart and an older Klefbom will offset a Ference decline and the varied opinion of Nikitin. Oh, and that Schultz guy, may be good under McLellan, or the same.

    To an objective outsider, there is no tangible reason to expect the defense to be better than last year, unless more roster changes happen. We can hope as fans, but I’ve been doing that for years.

  80. Lowetide says:

    Iztok Turk: Loooong time lurker (summer ’06), infrequent poster.

    With all due respect……….. His looong goodbye told me he was gone; he stated he was gone. As good as the usual banter is on here pertaining to any given topic, dsf does not contribute (whether as a contrarian or otherwise).

    Not sure why some are willing to go to bat for him/her.

    IMHO He’s simply detrimental to the spirit of this blog.

    I didn’t ban him, he’s welcome here. We had TWO DAYS of posts and didn’t reach a conclusion. DSF is welcome here, as are you. I reserve the right to monitor his posts, and ask that we respect each other.

  81. Woodguy says:

    V.XIV.VI.I:
    Wow, DSF still gets to post here.

    I’m done.

    Cya LT.

    That a better endorsement of DeeEssEff posing here than I could ever write.

  82. Dashingsilverfox says:

    ASkoreyko: DSF is absolutely right, anyone that really tries to argue otherwise needs to get over the McDavid high.

    Chia essentially covered for MacT’s failures and made a few improvements. MacT still left him some legacy garbage that he needs to clean out either this summer or next year.

    Honestly, it is a shame that MacT/Howson are allowed to stick around after those two colluded on such a terrible decision to go out and get Nikitin and let Petry walk. That single decision really hurt the Oilers not only last season but the upcoming season as well. Petry is replaceable (Sekera) but that extra year on Nikitin’s deal really hurts when someone like Erhoff could possibly be picked up for cheap. Couple that with Ference being half-way into his deal and already questionable for top-6 duty and you have more than enough fireable evidence to even make a HR department happy.

    That being said, we can’t change it now and one more year of ‘measured improvement’ and we can get most of the crap off the roster.

    I think DSF’s comments always stung more when you knew he was right but there was no hope things would get better. I still firmly believe that things will get better, it just sadly requires yet more patience from everyone involved.

    Good thing McDavid will distract all of us for a little while!

    McDavid does make things better.

    Talbot might.

    But the D is about the same until someone from the Klefbom, Nurse ,Reinhart cluster emerges as a top paring D.

    As always, you have to assess these things compared to what the competition is doing.

  83. Richard S.S. says:

    The Edmonton Oilers have exactly 9 Players making enough Salary to qualify for a possible Buyout. Six of those players are keepers. Of the unachieving three other Players, two have expiring contracts (of $4.5 Million each). It’s possible they could be better this year with all the changes; with McLellan’s influence; with renewed health, perhaps enough to be a useful trade asset. One underachiever has two years remaining (at $3.25 Million per), but was an unfortunate signing last year. What that player has left is unknown.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/edmonton-oilers has the Edmonton Oilers in a difficult position. It doesn’t consider three factor which are causing the problem.
    1) Connor McDavid will never make as little as $925 K. While we would be ecstatic if he earned the full $3.775 Million, that’s unlikely as well. Allowing for a reasonable $2.0 Million as his Salary, it adds $1.075 Million to the Cap.
    2) Tyler Pitlick’s salary isn’t included, and while it’s a minor detail, It’s still at least $800 K added to the Cap.
    3)) Justin Schultz made $3.675 Million last season and it’s unlikely his next Salary goes down. Just using last years Salary as an estimate makes things tight.

    With best estimates, the Edmonton Oilers have just $1,075,001.00 left in Cap Space and it might be less. Do the numbers yourself, it shouldn’t change. That unfortunately is not enough, even ignoring McDavid’s bonuses ($1.075 Million), because $2,150,001.00 is still not enough. Unless you want to be like Calgary and only have 17 players dressed, because they could afford to call up replacements, due to lack of Cap Space.

    How Chiarelli works this out will be interesting, because we can no longer take advantage of other Team’s problems. And that’s the problem.

  84. "Steve Smith" (formerly schtick-nadling) says:

    Woodguy: Lubo.

    The only thing worth watching during the reign of OTC

    You’re forgetting post-game pressers.

    (Which is odd, since you alluded to them immediately after the bit I quoted.)

  85. GCW_69 says:

    ASkoreyko,

    Sekera -Fayne (Tough comp, mixed zone starts)

    Klefbom – Franson (lots of ozone starts)

    Nikitin/Davidson – Gryba (dzone starts but weak competition)

    That’s a passable defence. Not great, but not embarrassing. Enough to get the Oilers trending the right way.

    In 2016/17:

    Sekera -Fayne (Tough comp, mixed zone starts)

    Klefbom – Franson (lots of ozone starts, but tougher comp)

    Nurse – Reinhart (dzone starts but weak competition)

    Davidson or Gryba as seventh d.

    By then, Klefbom should be ready to play tougher comp and one hopes Nurse and Reinhart dominate in Bakersfield this season so they take over the bottom pair roles a year from now.

    That’s the safe play.

    But I would rather pursue Shattenkirk or Larsson. Severson had a tremendous rookie season and would be interesting as well.

  86. stush18 says:

    Regarding our lineup, I have some thoughts, and they range all over the place. I haven’t been able to post as much as I would like too, so Feel free to ignore them if you choose to do so.

    1) I would almost guarantee that macL has a home lineup and away lineup setup. As others have said, play mcdavid and hall together at home in a hopes to catch teams unaware. Worse comes to worse, it limits how much ice time a opposing coach can pla his fourth and even third lines.

    2) personally, I would like nurse specifically to play in the AHL to begin the year at least. He is so athletic, he covers a lot of his mistakes. As he moves up leagues, he will have less and less time to cover his mistakes. Let him learn this in the minors, where he can learn and realize less is more.

    3) I am split on Leon. He is a fascinating prospect, and I would love to see him on the wing this year, bulldozing his way through the opposing team.

    However, watching the games, it seems clear that Leon is a perfect centre (or will be). As a hockey player, the number on thing I want from my centre is someone who can pass, and covers and battles down low. Leon posses these traits, and is dynamite on the draw, as a teenager with no man strength yet.

    Send him to the minors (I don’t think there is room unless there happens to be an injury anyways), and as with nurse, let him dominate, and learn the specifics to being a centre.

    4) any talk of drai not being fast enough is a misunderstanding. He is a perfect fit as a winger, but as a centre, he needs quicker feet. Yak has quick feet, but drai is faster. Quick stops and starts, first to the puck in your end, it’s all huge for a centreman, and that’s what people mean when they say he is too slow. That’s another reason to let him go to the AHL and either develop quicker feet, or adapt his style to cover better.

    5) I see lander as being a potential number two all situations centre by the end of the year. He demonstrated at the end of the year, and at the world championships, he can play with elite hockey players. He is also very committed defensively, and excellent on faceoffs.

    6) this is looking far into the future, but how do you slot your centreman? Mcdavid first, but after that, do you move nuge to wing? Lander has shown to be basically or future horcoff, and drai is projecting to become a kopitar/backes. It’s an interesting dilemma, and would be solved so much quicker if our entire team wasn’t made up of left handed shooting players.

    7) i would dump Schultz. He doesn’t have the on-ice intelligence to read plays, and as an offensive dman, that’s the most crucial part. I really hope he figures it out, and I reserve the right to back out of this statement at the 300 game mark.

    8) I think poo will be gone going into mcdavids final year. He has a large cap hit for a player of his skill type. I wish the contract was less, but for now I’ll accept it.

    9) I love Purcell. Yes he’s slow, but he is very skilled with puck, and his intelligence is very high. However I am the beer league version of Purcell, so I think I just have a soft spot for him.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Richard: Estimating Schultz, McDavid and Pitlick, it’s $69,032,000 for the cap, leaving 2.3-ish M.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/07/08/you-cant-go-fast-enough-to-get-there-early/

  88. Doug McLachlan says:

    Dallas is NOT a cap team, but are they a buget team?

    But for the cap crunch, the Stars’ Goligoski is a lot like Seabrook. Top dollar #1 type D on the last year of a contract. He’s younger, 29, and is earning less, $4.6M, but is coming off a rough year in big D (one of the teams falling out of the playoffs last year as opposed to the Hawks’ hoisting the Cup).

    For reasons the defy comprehension they tried to fix their problems with Lehtonen’s $5.9M three-year millstone by adding $4.5M over 3 of Niemi.

    They look to be building around young Klingberg. What would it take to get the last year of the Goligoski contract?

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Sekera is a slight improvement on Petry. Gryba is an improvement an Aulie. Don’t see why Corpseikowski trade but hopefully he rebounds. Hope Macdavid is so fast that he can feed passes to himself.
    And despite his age, which he’s not that old Seabrook would be a great addition. He would finally give us a shot on the pp which would give the rest of the players more room. And he would help with moving the puck. Sure a younger Seabrook would be ideal but that’s not happening

  90. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    I don’t think you can shelter 2 of 3 pairs Gracie.

  91. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I don’t think you can shelter 2 of 3 pairs Gracie.

    Unless you are playing the 09-15 Oilers

  92. leadfarmer says:

    Lubo? Lol. How many third pairing defenseman do we need.

  93. Lowetide says:

    The issue for the D now is the fourth defender. I think Oil could survive running Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom in significant moments,but there’s no fourth really.

  94. Woodguy says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Dallas is NOT a cap team, but are they a buget team?

    The owner will spend if Nill gives him a reason to.

    Would have loved to hear the conversation that ended with “…and that’s why its a good idea to spend $10.4MM on two goalies for the next 3 years and both of them turn 32 this year.”

  95. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Unless you are playing the 09-15 Oilers

    /thread

  96. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly schtick-nadling): You’re forgetting post-game pressers.

    (Which is odd, since you alluded to them immediately after the bit I quoted.)

    I was talking about on the ice.

    Off the ice it the Oilers have always been more compelling than The Edge of Night.

  97. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Dallas is NOT a cap team, but are they a buget team?

    But for the cap crunch, the Stars’ Goligoski is a lot like Seabrook. Top dollar #1 type D on the last year of a contract. He’s younger, 29, and is earning less, $4.6M, but is coming off a rough year in big D (one of the teams falling out of the playoffs last year as opposed to the Hawks’ hoisting the Cup).

    For reasons the defy comprehension they tried to fix their problems with Lehtonen’s $5.9M three-year millstone by adding $4.5M over 3 of Niemi.

    They look to be building around young Klingberg. What would it take to get the last year of the Goligoski contract?

    The Stars missed the playoffs due to substandard goaltending.

    Nill has made a bet that having two established goalies to compete with each other will make a difference.

    Since they have no cap or budget issues (their owner is a multi billionaire) I could only see them adding a D rather than moving one.

  98. Adam Wu says:

    As many have said, when you look at a team’s D, you can’t just look at 6 (or 7) players, you have look at 9 or 10.

    Because injuries are common enough among D that over the course of a season, it is almost guaranteed that at least 9 or 10 of your D see significant NHL ice time.

    One area of clear improvement that Chiarelli has made is in those depth D, from 6-9. There is every reason to expect that a depth group consisting of Gryba, Nurse, Reinhart, etc will be substantially improved over last year’s depth group headlined by Aulie, Hunt and assorted pylons.

    Last year, the Oilers D was bottom 5 (but not even the worst D corps in the league, Buffalo’s was) when healthy, but with a single injury (or say the trading away of Petry) dropped even further into abyssal depths. Every game with a single D injury was virtually a guaranteed loss on account of the D weakness alone. You basically had a situation where you had a puncher’s chance when healthy, but almost zero chance if there is even a single injury, which was the case about 30% of the time, and everyone knew it, with the attendant impact such hopelessness has on team morale.

    Next year, when healthy, the D, if unchanged, will still likely be bottom 5, maybe marginally better at best, but with an injury, it will *still* have a chance of hanging as bottom 5. In other words, whereas last year a single injury sent the D from bottom-of-the-NHL-quality to not-even-remotely-belonging-in-the-NHL-at-all, next year the D is likely to be able to sustain bottom-of-the-NHL quality through 1 or 2 injuries. In other words, we can expect to have a puncher’s chance all the time, even through the normal wear and tear of the NHL season.

    People should not underestimate how much of an impact this difference can make on overall performance, as well as morale.

  99. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    The issue for the D now is the fourth defender. I think Oil could survive running Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom in significant moments,but there’s no fourth really.

    Exactly. Well said!

  100. Younger Oil says:

    Was all of the Patrick Hersley talk earlier this year actually plausible or just wishful thinking?

    Might just be another Belov, but worth looking into IMO.

    I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Schultz may be able to fill a role now. Didn’t he and Klefbom do alright together with the softest minutes possible, and then implode once they had to play harder minutes when Petry left? Now that Sekera replaces Petry, they may be able to face softer minutes.

    Another thing with Schutz (and Yakupov) is the same issue we had with Gagner: They’ve had a year of experience three times. McLellan will be their fourth coach in as many seasons. This is their first year playing with a stable management and coaching staff (in theory), so that could help both of them a lot going forward.

    Schultz still needs to improve a LOT to become a #4D, but with McLellan it might not be out of the realm of possibility.

  101. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    The issue for the D now is the fourth defender. I think Oil could survive running Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom in significant moments,but there’s no fourth really.

    Precisely why I’ve been arguing for Ehrhoff.

    As a #4 he’d be ideal.

    And can someone explain the injury concern to me?

    I’ve posted his gp the past four or five seasons and outside of last year, he was very steady.

  102. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    If a guy to make those tape-to-tape breakout passes is the big need, maybe Seabrook is the guy after all.

    ….

    That’s based on just two games observation, but then, that’s also on the enormous stage of the SCF, and against a pretty skilled team in TBay.

    Also supported by @regressedPDO. At her blog (https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/) she tracked zone exits and entries for Chicago. In both the Nashville and Anaheim series, Seabrook had the best percentage of controlled zone exits among all the Chicago D-men.

  103. rickithebear says:

    SUB 52.00 CA/60
    38 games of tarnstrom @ 50.78
    38/3732 games.

    Petry 56.94 for career.
    Sekera 51.30

    Not close!

    Pronger
    07-08 44.44
    08-09 47.76
    09-10 51.09
    10-11 59.18
    Career over

    Fayne NJD
    10-11 41.51
    11-12 44.47
    12-13 37.91
    13-14 39.87

    Oduya
    07-08 41.73 NJD
    08-09 48.74 NJD
    09-10 48.36 NJD
    09-10 57.93 ATL
    10-11 58.70 ATL
    11-12 54.30 WPG
    11-12 50.63 CHI
    12-13 44.98 CHI
    13-14 46.12 CHI
    14-15 52.83 CHI
    Slotting on 2nd comp is a natural 2 yr match.

    Suggestioons like Petry; Seabrook are a complete lack of understanding good defence.
    given the quality since 06-07 understandable!

    Personally I am tired of:
    06-07 25th
    07-08 19th
    08-09 21st
    09-10 30th
    10-11 30th
    11-12 29th
    12-13 24th
    13-14 28th
    14-15 28th

    wonder what it could be.!
    that gilberts great!
    that Petry’s great!
    I like schmaltz’s offence!
    Lets get Franson!

  104. hags9k says:

    I know it’s July and I did have a shot of 105 proof corn whisky tonight but I really don’t think Nurse will need sheltering for very long.

    This is the best D prospect since Coffey. Pedigree in spades and has already been sent back twice. Adequately marinated. Give him 2-3 weeks in the AHL to start just to piss him off, then unchain the animal. Conner’s buddy Darnell will be second pairing by xmas.

    DFN

    GOILERS

  105. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Precisely why I’ve been arguing for Ehrhoff.

    As a #4 he’d be ideal.

    And can someone explain the injury concern to me?

    I’ve posted his gp the past four or five seasons and outside of last year, he was very steady.

    There’s been concussions this last year and it seemed to have an impact on his play. That in combination with his increasing age make people leary. I’m with you, though, I’d take him for a one year, maybe even a two year contract depending on price.

  106. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: There’s been concussions this last year and it seemed to have an impact on his play. That in combination with his increasing age make people leary. I’m with you, though, I’d take him for a one year, maybe even a two year contract depending on price.

    I recognize the concussions, but he’s hardly the first player and I suspect we’re talking about one incident that didn’t entirely resolve itself before the year’s end.

  107. Factotum says:

    If you’re ever wondering what makes it so that a supposedly-intelligent adult human never, ever gets tired of pissing in other people’s Corn Flakes and perpetually lobbing bullshit online to get a rise out of them, check out the fairly recent research on internet trolling done at the University of Manitoba. There’s a nice writeup on Slate entitled “Internet Trolls Really Are Horrible People”.

    I’ve observed countless trolls going back to CompuServe in the early-mid 90s. The behavior is tediously predictable.

    Yawn.

    To paraphrase David Brinkley:

    Among things I admire, almost near the top is creativeness, and our host LT and a great many of the posters here have it. It shows in your work, it shows in your thinking, and it shows in your speech, what you do, what you write, what you say.

    And it’s one reason this group is so terrific (and why I’ve visited this site nearly every day for almost a decade).

    The troll has none of it. He has not a creative bone in his body. Therefore, he’s a bore, and will always be a bore.

    Yawn.

  108. Cameron says:

    RexLibris: Precisely why I’ve been arguing for Ehrhoff.

    As a #4 he’d be ideal.

    And can someone explain the injury concern to me?

    I’ve posted his gp the past four or five seasons and outside of last year, he was very steady.

    He had a gruesome concussion, a slow recovery, and really hasn’t looked right since.

  109. Ryan says:

    mujidog:
    Ference is signed for 2 more years $3.35M per. Ehrhoff may sign somewhere (here?) for less/equal term AND cap hit. Crazy.

    Ference was signed by a genius. He’s already long done. Lordy, he was a boat anchor last year already. That was a herpes-type contract Mact signed.

    I keep trying to find on Google those YouTube videos of his gap control. It was so bad even Puck Daddy or someone picked up the story.

  110. Factotum says:

    Lowetide:
    The issue for the D now is the fourth defender. I think Oil could survive running Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom in significant moments,but there’s no fourth really.

    You nailed it again, IMO.

  111. frjohnk says:

    RE: the defence

    All situations

    Shots Against
    Oilers 20th
    Flames12th

    Corsi Against
    Flames 28th
    Oilers 20th

    Fenwick Against
    Oilers 24th
    Flames 21st

    ScoringChancesAgainst
    Oilers 26th
    Flames 25th

    HighDangerScoringChancesAgainst
    Oilers 26th
    Flames 22nd

    Oilers goaltending really sunk the team

    Anybody who thinks that the Oilers had the worst defense in the league are smoking used toilet paper.
    Buffalo, Toronto, Arizona, Colorado all had worse corsi, fenwick, shots, scoring chances and high danger scoring chances against than the Oilers but these teams got this for goaltending save %

    Buffalo .908
    Toronto .906
    Arizona .902
    Colorado .918

    Edmonton .888
    Calgary .911

    Both teams will get better defensively as Calgary as added Hamilton, Oilers will probably see most of their improvement internally from player growth and McLellan.

  112. Oil2Oilers says:

    Sekera-Fayne
    Klefbom-Reinhart (young but unlikely need sheltering; comp yes – zone no)
    Mud-Gybra
    more Mud until Nurse is ready.
    Enrhoff for 2 years would clear up the mud.

  113. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    I don’t think you can shelter 2 of 3 pairs Gracie.

    The third pair had to be able to start in their own zone, even if its against weaker competition, for the Oilers defence to work next year. If they can’t, its gonna be another long year.

  114. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide:
    Richard: Estimating Schultz, McDavid and Pitlick, it’s $69,032,000 for the cap, leaving 2.3-ish M.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/07/08/you-cant-go-fast-enough-to-get-there-early/

    How do we consider the Anders Nilsson contract of $1.0 Million? If he makes the team we say some monies and if he doesn’t, does the Cap Hit go away? Still, $2.3-ish Million is woefully inadequate for future moves this Offseason.

  115. G Money says:

    Woodguy: As a #4 he’d be ideal.

    Yeah you can – exactly as implied by the comment. As noted, one pairing is the Killzone pairing, for both hard starts and competition . That leaves one pairing to be sheltered via more favourable zone starts ( but typically the hard competition ), just like they were last year. The other one gets shetered for competition but not zone starts.

    Done.

  116. wheatnoil says:

    We simply don’t know what kind of impact Todd McLellan will have on this team.

    I wonder if we’re putting too much emphasis on McLellan this upcoming year. I feel like we’ve been through this song and dance before. I remember people complaining about Krueger’s lack of line-matching and his giving too many minutes to the 4th line. People hoped Eakins would be better. Then last summer we were talking about how Ramsay was going to save the powerplay and the defense as the assistant coach.

    I think McLellan is a good hire, but in G Money’s survey, I put the goal differential difference due to coaching at ‘zero’. I wonder if we’re expecting too much from him to some how whisper magic to the defense and fix all the problems.

    My point is not that coaches don’t matter. My point is that even a veteran coach like Renney took a year before he started to turn the team north. Renney’s second year showed improvement compared to his first and the Oilers haven’t reached that level since. At the end of the day, McLellan is still the 5th coach in 5 years.

    We may not see the dividends of McLellan start to pay off until 2017/18.

  117. Numenius says:

    David: 6 million cap hit per year for 4 years

    Anything more than 2 years is going to make for difficult decisions in the 3rd year, though, because you’ll likely have to part with one of Hall, Nuge, Eberle and maybe one of Klef, Nurse, Reinhart.

    As FrJohn has noted, the Oilers will be at least around $62.2M for 11 players (let’s call them the core) in that 3rd year.

    That year is the 4th season from now in 2018-19 (since you have to add the 1 year Seabrook has left on his existing contract):

    “The Core” in 2018-19
    Hall………………..6.0
    Jordan Eberle…6.0
    RNH……………6.0
    Benoit Pouliot….4.0
    Connor …………9.7 (start of new 8 year contract)
    Leon Draisaitl….4.5
    Anton Lander….3.5 (maybe a little high, but others are likely too low)

    Andrej Sekera…5.5 (last year of NMC)
    Oscar Klefbom…4.0
    Griffin Reinhart…3.5
    Darnell Nurse…..5.0
    Total……………62.2M

    If the cap rises by 4M each year (which is quite generous; it didn’t this year), that’s 83.4M Cap in ’18-’19, leaving you with 21.2M to sign 12 players.

    That averages 1.77M per player and that’s not even having Seabrook on your roster. It also assumes you’ve already lost Yak and Schultz, perhaps in trade for a top 4 D.

    If you round out the roster with bargain basement contracts

    Talbot………..4.5M (technically also part of the core)
    Backup………1M
    3rd pair D…..1M
    3rd pairD……1M
    3rd lineF…….2M
    3rd lineF…….2M
    5 4th lineFs..5M (1M average each, serious bargains)
    Total………..16.5M

    You have 22 players signed and 4.7M left. But you’re still missing a Top 4 D.

    If that D is Seabrook with an NMC at 6-7.5M, that puts you over the cap by 1.3-2.8M.

    Your only option now is to trade one of the core (not including Sekera, who’s on the last year of his NMC), since the additional players are already at bargain basement contracts.

    On the above scenario, you could trade Lander and Pouliot as long as you get cheap replacements, say at 2M each average = 3.5M savings. Then you’re at 0.7-2.2M below the cap. Some space but not much.

    But the scenario above is a best case scenario. It’s more likely your overall cap hit will be higher (and the cap itself lower) and you’ll be forced to trade 1 or 2 of the higher end players I was suggesting.

    It may be there’s nothing wrong with that, but it is something to keep in mind when considering signing Seabrook beyond 2 years.

    Personally, I’d rather sign Ehrhoff to a 2-3 year deal and keep things clearer for 2018-19.

    Especially since 2018-19 is when you’ll want to be contending for the cup.

  118. RexLibris says:

    Cameron,

    Offense flows from the D, that is true.

    WG is a firm believer of this as am I. I think most of us feel that way after years of watching Taylor Hall get up a head of steam and then have to stop in the neutral zone to collect a pass.

    That being said, all of the work thus far suggests that the defense is both a point of focus for Chiarelli and a work in progress.

    I believe he recognizes Ference as dead weight and Nikitin as overpaid by about $3 million.

    I think if he could he’d add Franson or Ehrhoff today.

    However, the Oilers have three very promising young defenders who are on the threshold of the NHL ready to emerge in the next year and a half, so all blueline commitments have to be made with that in mind.

    They have to proceed gradually and only as the opportunities they create begin to take shape.

    Nobody is suggesting that this blueline is ideal, but it is headed in the right direction and needs only to continue along with some adjustments compared to the aimless mess it was two years ago and last season.

  119. rickithebear says:

    Ryan: hat was a herpes-type contract Mact signed.

    we avoided the STD Petry!

  120. Pouzar says:

    hags9k: I really don’t think Nurse will need sheltering for very long.

    DING! DING! DING!

    This Nurse Fan boy says you WIN!

  121. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide:
    The issue for the D now is the fourth defender. I think Oil could survive running Sekera, Fayne and Klefbom in significant moments,but there’s no fourth really.

    I read somewhere (I can’t remember where) that Gryba played some #4 D minutes effectively, but I can’t defend that well enough to suggest that as an answer.

  122. Woogie63 says:

    If the western conference teams stack ranked the 6 starting defenceman, we would be in the bottom half of that ranking.

    Hall, Eberle, Yak, McDavid are all going to have provide more than a stick check on the opposition, if we are tighten up our goals against.

  123. G Money says:

    Do the Eskimos hit a half century ?

  124. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: DING! DING! DING!

    This Nurse Fan boy says you WIN!

    I think for you Darnell Nurse =Chuck Norris

  125. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: I think for you Darnell Nurse =Chuck Norris

    Better looking too….but it’s damn close.

  126. Picturesque says:

    I’m all for signing Ehrhoff (like the sound of the GMoney drum) …but since he’s a UFA, doesn’t he have a say in where he wants to play? I’ve read it before that he wants to stay in the east, and also wants to be on a contender. So these things don’t seem to work in our favour.

  127. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.: How do we consider the Anders Nilsson contract of $1.0 Million?If he makes the team we say some monies and if he doesn’t, does the Cap Hit go away?Still, $2.3-ish Million is woefully inadequate for future moves this Offseason.

    Only 23 men make the roster, so two goalies.

  128. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Do the Eskimos hit a half century ?

    I’m holding my breath.

    Franklin looks off. Calm, but I’m not liking his reads thus far.

  129. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    Looks like a rookie now!

  130. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Also supported by @regressedPDO. At her blog (https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/) she tracked zone exits and entries for Chicago. In both the Nashville and Anaheim series, Seabrook had the best percentage of controlled zone exits among all the Chicago D-men.

    That’s significant.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Only 23 men make the roster, so two goalies.

    “So says you” – S. Tambellini

  132. wheatnoil says:

    Richard S.S.: I read somewhere (I can’t remember where) that Gryba played some #4 D minutes effectively, but I can’t defend that well enough to suggest that as an answer.

    Gryba played Top 4 minutes in his first year (2012/13) but not successfully. These last two years, his minutes dropped and his zone starts became tougher, but he appeared to be somewhat more successful in that role. He has been particularly adept at suppressing shots against, but his ability to push the puck forward is quite poor (based on the new passing data, HERO charts, and verbal from guys like Mirtle who have watched him more closely than I have).

    So, at this point, expecting him to play top 4 minutes would be asking him to play at a level beyond what he’s shown capable of so far in his career.

  133. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    Looks like a rookie now!

    It raises questions about his ability to process the game at-speed.

    He is toolsy, as we like to say, but does he have the toolbox?

  134. dustrock says:

    I would think having the exact same D players as last season with McLellan alone would be an improvement.

  135. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63:
    If the western conference teams stack ranked the 6 starting defenceman, we would be in the bottom half of that ranking.

    Hall, Eberle, Yak, McDavid are all going to have provide more than a stick check on the opposition, if we are tighten up our goals against.

    One of the most significant coaching changes will be the break out imo.

    McLellen’s break out are “5 man units” from the dzone to the ozone.

    Not nearly as many forwards flying the zone to stretch the D out.

    I can’t wait.

    It will play to the Oiler’s strength, which is their forwards.

    A good coach will figure out what the team’s strength is and then play to it.

    McLellen’s previous systems fit well for the Oiler group imo.

  136. ASkoreyko says:

    GCW_69,

    Yep, you add in a Franson or a Erhoff and the defence doesn’t look terrible. Still, those moves by MacT and his buddy are truly galling.

    Dashingsilverfox,

    You are quite right, I see some minor improvements and possibly looking like the playoffs are not a foregone conclusion. But really the only hope the Oilers have of a real improvement is if Klefbom takes a huge leap this year or Nurse comes in and just dominates. Neither of those are likely to happen.

    I certainly hope MacT realizes the grave mistakes he made and if not they need to get rid of him as soon as possible.

  137. Mr. D. says:

    G Money:
    Cameron raises a valid point on the D.

    I don’t think anyone believes this D is a finished product, or a particularly improved one over the last year – least of all Chia.

    I’ve been banging the Sekera drum for a while, and when Chia actually delivered, I started banging the Ehrhoff drum (and will continue until he signs, either here or somewhere else).Adding Ehrhoff is a legit improvement.

    That’s because on paper, with “-Petry +Sekera”, the Oiler D does not look improved overall other than the fact that there will be more ferocious competition (and therefore one would expect better players than e.g. Hunt, Aulie) on the bottom pairing.

    And that’s most likely how it will be – without anyone else added, or unless Nurse and/or Reinhart step up and show NHL quality play out of the gate, the forwards will be much better but the D will remain among the bottom 5.

    However, I think there is one, just one, scenario not involving Nurse/Reinhart/new guy where the D actually might be significantly improved over last year.

    I think this because all of these things were true the last couple of years:

    – Klefbom/Schultz were the primary o zone pairing last year

    – this left Petry-Ference as the primary “shutdown” pairing last year,

    – this left Ference regularly playing Top 4 minutes and against tough competition.Ference is no longer capable of doing that, and hasn’t been for several years

    – This dragged the effectiveness of Petry and the pairing down substantially

    – Meanwhile, Mark Fayne was left to face the toughest zone starts and toughest competition.He did a very credible job of this while with NJD, paired with a competent puck-moving D in Greene.He had to do the same thing in Edmonton paired variously with Marincin, Nikitin, Klefbom, and Aulie.He drowned in this role.

    So, here’s the one area where a dramatic improvement in the D might be seen next year.

    If Sekera and Fayne play together, find chemistry, and can reproduce to some extent the effectiveness of the Fayne-Greene pairing in NJD, the Oilers will have a legitimate shutdown pairing.This alone would be a substantive improvement.They shut very few teams down last year.

    This would leave the bottom pairing to face modest minutes, easier zone starts and the easier competition, as they should.If he does make the roster, Ference – and he probably shouldn’t make the roster if fair’s fair – will be more suited and more effective in that role than in a Top 4 role.

    Better still, hopefully two of Gryba / Reinhart / Nurse (and maybe even a resurgent Nikitin) win out the bottom pairing roles.

    This means we would go from this:

    Petry-Ference – ineffective shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering
    Fayne-some guy – kill zone (starts, competition) pairing getting their heads kicked in

    to

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    That would be a major improvement over last year.

    It’s a big if, but not out of the realm of possibility.

    I’d still rather Chia go get Ehrhoff and then the defense is improved over next year, no ifs ands or buts, but if not …

    Gryba plays against top lines in a shutdown role don’t need sheltering.

  138. flyfish1168 says:

    Numenius: Anything more than 2 years is going to make for difficult decisions in the 3rd year, though, because you’ll likely have to part with one of Hall, Nuge, Eberle and maybe one of Klef, Nurse, Reinhart.

    As FrJohn has noted, the Oilers will be at least around $62.2M for 11 players (let’s call them the core) in that 3rd year.

    That year is the 4th season from now in 2018-19 (since you have to add the 1 year Seabrook has left on his existing contract):

    “The Core” in 2018-19
    Hall………………..6.0
    Jordan Eberle…6.0
    RNH……………6.0
    Benoit Pouliot….4.0
    Connor …………9.7 (start of new 8 year contract)
    Leon Draisaitl….4.5
    Anton Lander….3.5 (maybe a little high, but others are likely too low)

    Andrej Sekera…5.5 (last year of NMC)
    Oscar Klefbom…4.0
    Griffin Reinhart…3.5
    Darnell Nurse…..5.0
    Total……………62.2M

    If the cap rises by 4M each year (which is quite generous; it didn’t this year), that’s 83.4M Cap in ’18-’19, leaving you with 21.2M to sign 12 players.

    That averages 1.77M per player and that’s not even having Seabrook on your roster. It also assumes you’ve already lost Yak and Schultz, perhaps in trade for a top 4 D.

    If you round out the roster with bargain basement contracts

    Talbot………..4.5M (technically also part of the core)
    Backup………1M
    3rd pair D…..1M
    3rd pairD……1M
    3rd lineF…….2M
    3rd lineF…….2M
    5 4th lineFs..5M (1M average each, serious bargains)
    Total………..16.5M

    You have 22 players signed and 4.7M left. But you’re still missing a Top 4 D.

    If that D is Seabrook with an NMC at 6-7.5M, that puts you over the cap by 1.3-2.8M.

    Your only option now is to trade one of the core (not including Sekera, who’s on the last year of his NMC), since the additional players are already at bargain basement contracts.

    On the above scenario, you could trade Lander and Pouliot as long as you get cheap replacements, say at 2M each average = 3.5M savings. Then you’re at 0.7-2.2M below the cap. Some space but not much.

    But the scenario above is a best case scenario. It’s more likely your overall cap hit will be higher (and the cap itself lower) and you’ll be forced to trade 1 or 2 of the higher end players I was suggesting.

    It may be there’s nothing wrong with that, but it is something to keep in mind when considering signing Seabrook beyond 2 years.

    Personally, I’d rather sign Ehrhoff to a 2-3 year deal and keep things clearer for 2018-19.

    Especially since 2018-19 is when you’ll want to be contending for the cup.

    Nice work. it is hard to estimate how negotiations will go. We all know salaries is going up faster then the CAP. That’s why I feel its important to keep our draft picks and hoe we draft well.

  139. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Eberle in today’s Edmonton Journal :

    “I got an opportunity to play under (McLellan) at the world championships and he was incredible,” said Eberle

    This is what you would call an unequivocal endorsement !

  140. "Steve Smith" says:

    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding. I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

  141. "Steve Smith" says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Eberle intoday’s Edmonton Journal :

    “I got an opportunity to play under (McLellan) at the world championships and he was incredible,” said Eberle

    This is what you would call an unequivocal endorsement !

    Well, strictly speaking, “incredible” just means “unbelievable”. Looking back, I think that would be a fair description of the Steve Tambellini era.

  142. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

    Good point.

  143. Oil2Oilers says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    This has been pointed out repeatedly to no effect, but I’ve never bought into that popular, and oft-misattributed, “definition of insanity”, so let me give this a shot:

    When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.I don’t mind it when people post wall-of-text comments, but it is very annoying when people quote those walls-of-text in their entirety in order to add a one or two line response.

    You may now resume ignoring me.

    TL;DR

  144. Pouzar says:

    “Steve Smith”: You may now resume ignoring me.

    Like this?

  145. Halfwise says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Do you feel the love?

  146. Numenius says:

    G Money: This means we would go from this:

    Petry-Ference – ineffective shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering
    Fayne-some guy – kill zone (starts, competition) pairing getting their heads kicked in

    to

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    That would be a major improvement over last year.

    I like this line of thought. Nice post.

  147. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: ;

    )

  148. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10: )

    Remind me to vacuum.

  149. Магия 10 says:

    “Steve Smith”: or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.

    for anyone that does not know: the quick way to edit the quote is to highlight the relevant bit before you hit quote.

  150. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: Remind me to vacuum.

    he started it!!!

  151. Younger Oil says:

    Магия 10,

    Nifty, didn’t know that, thanks for the tip!

  152. G Money says:

    Young and Oily: Nifty, please give me a tip!

    It’s also helpful to make misleading edits.

  153. godot10 says:

    Suggestion:

    Trade 1 year of Nikitin to Tampa for 3 years of Matt Carle. It would allow Yzerman the space to re-sign Coburn.

    Carle is not as good as Seabrook, but he is better than Franson, and the duration is manageable, only 3 years.

  154. geowal says:

    Магия 10: highlight the relevant bit

    Neat!
    I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised at the extent that folks assume general competence at this “internet thing” and yet I am always still learning from folks here and elsewhere. Another ten years and I should catch up where my age group is now.

  155. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: Four years, $6 million. That’s probably two years too long but I’m weak.

    Stauff was talking the neighbourhood of 7Mx7 years. I don’t know how he performs to that contract in any year, let alone the latter 3-4. Reputation>performance for Seabrook, comes with winning Gold and Stanley x3.

    Sorry to the person that hates when people always ‘quote’ and never ‘reply’. That’s always me. I’m one of those baddies, it’s just how most other hockey forum sites work

  156. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Stauff was talking the neighbourhood of 7Mx7 years. I don’t know how he performs to that contract in any year, let alone the latter 3-4. Reputation>performance for Seabrook, comes with winning Gold and Stanley x3.

    Sorry to the person that hates when people always ‘quote’ and never ‘reply’. That’s always me. I’m one of those baddies, it’s just how most other hockey forum sites work

    I think the Oilers have Sekera covering the long contract. Two isn’t a good idea.

  157. kevin says:

    Lowetide: Two isn’t a good idea.

    Don’t we want Klefbom to sign a 8 year contract?

    Just trying out the “new” select and quote feature.

  158. Lowetide says:

    kevin: Just

    Klef will be for a more reasonable number, though.

  159. Hammers says:

    When they took Reinhart I thought at last there looking 3 years out and along with Klef and Nurse there making the right calls . Getting Seabrook helps get us in playoffs but not winning a cup . We need another 23-24 year old with upside . . Because we screwed up for ten years doesn’t mean not doing the right things the next 2 years . I’m looking to be above the bottom 10 this year then in the playoffs and challenging in the 3rd year and winning in 5 . 30 year old players won’t help .

  160. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: It’s also helpful to make misleading edicts.

    Et tu. Pecunia?

  161. scratch says:

    Lowetide,

    From a source close to Seabrook, 7 years $8 million. Boychuk got 7 years so of course they want 7 years for Seabrook. Now I was also told that Edmonton is a destination he would like to come to!

  162. Магия 10 says:

    scratch:
    Lowetide,

    From a source close to Seabrook, 7 years $8 million. Boychuk got 7 years so of course they want 7 years for Seabrook. Now I was also told that Edmonton is a destination he would like to come to!

    Pass

  163. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Seabrook is a tricky conversation.
    It’s not a matter of yes/no.
    It’s a matter of:
    1) what goes back the other way?
    2) how long is his Oiler contract?
    3) what is the aav

    Biggest problem is someone is going to overpay on 1 before they find bottom on 2 and 3.

  164. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Uh, hey everybody! I’m a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt smells and I like to kiss my own butt!

    You mean like this?

  165. kevin says:

    Lowetide: reasonable

    Just doing some trolling. Hoping to get more of a rise out of you. Too level headed.

    On this DSF thing, just my 2 cents.
    Some of my favorite threads are the ones that are hijacked.
    I believe we are all ‘trolls’ and ‘trollies’,depending on the situation. Pushing someone’s button or getting a rise out of someone. We have all done it, to what extent?
    Going to a specific blog where all the commenters are ‘fanatics’ is easy pickings. Someone is bound to grab the line.
    I don’t believe that trolls are horrible people.(I lean that way more myself)
    I also have buttons that can be pressed. I like to keep them hidden or try to work on them so I can’t be manipulated.
    If you respond to DSF, remember that the hook in your mouth is as much your doing as his.

  166. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    Sekera-Fayne – effective kill zone/shutdown pairing
    Klefbom-Schultz – effective o zone pairing requiring lots of sheltering (but maybe less than last year because Klefbom)
    Gryba-Reinhart-Nurse – sheltered bottom pairing

    I don’t think you can shelter 2 of 3 pairs Gracie.

    If there is no trade this is how I think the D will work out. KBom and JShultz were not a bad pair post Eakins, and I more optimistic than most on Reinhart / Gryba. Add in better all round defending as a team and I am not sure all the garment venting is justified ….. yet!!

  167. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d like Klefbom on a Brodin like extension.

    6-7 years at 7-8M at 31 is ludicrous. This is the case where you should go for someone who can fit the bet a but worse, but at less of an opportunity cost. Franson’s name has been floated, Ehrhoff, Spurgeon, Ellis, Byfuglien(though he might want something similar, acquisition not as bad).

  168. v4ance says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Eberle intoday’s Edmonton Journal :

    “I got an opportunity to play under (McLellan) at the world championships and he was incredible,” said Eberle

    This is what you would call an unequivocal endorsement !

    I believe the McLellan will look at Draisaitl and see that he can mould him to be like his former big #1 center, Joe Thornton. Both are adept at using their massive frames to protect the puck along the boards and both have elite passing skills. If McLellan can even get Draisaitl to be 75% of Thornton’s effectiveness, then that alone would be worth the hire.

    Draisaitl and Thornton aren’t exactly the same player since Drai has better speed but it’s exciting to imagine how this plays out going forward.

  169. AsiaOil says:

    All this Seabrook talk is ridiculous – there is no cap room for any extension longer than 2 years that does not cost you a younger core player (or 2) in years 3-5 of that deal. It’s longterm suicide for a quick fix this season and maybe next. Sekera is proven and signing him involved giving an older player a big long contract – respecting the cap demands that we only get one of those. Fayne should be OK and Klef should join the ranks of the proven by the end of this season. Shultz will take a 1 year deal though arb or agreement – either he can develop a more rounded game under TMac or he’s gone – but he’s on a “show me” deal. GR is 3rd pair and sheltered this season along with Gryba. Nurse should start in the AHL until at least Christmas – let him tear it up and make the inevitable rookie mistakes in the AHL.

    That leaves Ference who absolutely needs to be bought out since he has been one of the worst performing dmen on the Oilers over the past decade (some feat considering the competition) and Nikitin would may possibly be useful for a season. You can optimistically imagine Nikitin providing at least replacement level performance – but Ference is an utter black hole – and the team is far better off by simply getting rid of him.

    We are in a tricky place – would be nice to improve by bringing in an older player – but that guy will be expensive and could potentially cost us a core piece thorough cap issues down the road. Running with Klef, GR & Nurse mitigates the cap issues but they need another 1.5-2 seasons of seasoning and nothing is guaranteed. Patience is required – if a UFA like Franson or Erhoff is willing to take 2 years then great – if we can trade for a guy with 2 years left on the clock then great. But we can’t push it right now by offering another big long term deal to an older guy who may not be necessary medium term and will cost us something we don’t want to give up down the road

  170. DBO says:

    We need a RD, vet, 3 year contract or less. Ideally on a deal where we send out Schultz since he will be paid like a top 4 D, but won’t be able to cover the bet. And with Reinhart, Nurse, Klefbom, Sekera and Fayne we have 5 of our D set for the next 3 years. Just need that stop gap.

    Chara – yes I know he is old, and Boston management are certifiable. But he checks off all the boxes. Perfect fit for next 3 years.
    Oduya – he is waiting on Chicago. But if that falls through, he is great on a 2 year deal paired with Klefbom. Also just money, so you can still move Schultz for picks or keep him hoping he progresses. He is older and declining, but he would instantly be an upgrade in our top 4.
    Erhoff – injury concerns mean he will be cheaper, maybe had on a 1 or 2 year deal, sell him on PP chances and top 4 spot to pad his numbers for one last big contract. Means a lot of LD playing off natural side , but Klefbom did it at the worlds and was fine.
    Hainsey – yes Ron Hainsey. 2 years left in Carolina, they are going rebuild, and he can play top 4 this year, can make a pass and brings grit and experience and is cost effective. Maybe Schultz gets you Hainsey and another younger player to add to the cluster.
    Kulikov – him again. But he fits age cluster, his more physical but same age as Schultz. Florida has more stay at home big dman, so they may be willing to take Schultz (money is similar and they can control Schultz for longer, Kulikov UFA in 2 yrs). Prob have to add a pick or prospect, but he would be a nice fit. Gudbrunson would also fit, and is RD but doubt he is available where Kulikov seems to always be in rumour mill.

  171. hunter1909 says:

    AsiaOil:
    All this Seabrook talk is ridiculous – there is no cap room for any extension longer than 2 years thatdoes not cost you a younger core player (or 2) in years 3-5 of that deal. It’s longterm suicide for a quick fix this season and maybe next. Sekera is proven and signing him involved giving an older player a big long contract – respecting the cap demands that we only get one of those. Fayne should be OK and Klef should join the ranks of the proven by the end of this season. Shultz will take a 1 year deal though arb or agreement – either he can develop a more rounded game under TMac or he’s gone – but he’s on a “show me” deal. GR is 3rd pair and sheltered this season along with Gryba. Nurse should start in the AHL until at least Christmas – let him tear it up and make the inevitable rookie mistakes in the AHL.

    That leaves Ference who absolutely needs to be bought out since he has been one of the worst performing dmen on the Oilers over the past decade (some feat considering the competition) and Nikitin would may possibly be useful for a season. You can optimistically imagine Nikitin providing at least replacement level performance – but Ference is an utter black hole – and the team is far better off by simply getting rid of him.

    We are in a tricky place – would be nice to improve by bringing in an older player – but that guy will be expensive and could potentially cost us a core piece thorough cap issues down the road. Running with Klef, GR & Nurse mitigates the cap issues but they need another 1.5-2 seasons of seasoning and nothing is guaranteed. Patience is required – if a UFA like Franson or Erhoff is willing to take 2 years then great – if we can trade for a guy with 2 years left on the clock then great. But we can’t push it right now by offering another big long term deal to an older guy who may not be necessary medium term and will cost us something we don’t want to give up down the road

    This poster understands the Oilers like few others.

  172. jonrmcleod says:

    stevezie,

    I wasn’t disagreeing with that comment in particular. I do seem to remember a Monahan equals Toews, etc. comment. But it’s all good. Not looking to ban dissenters.

  173. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    All this Seabrook talk is ridiculous – there is no cap room for any extension longer than 2 years thatdoes not cost you a younger core player (or 2) in years 3-5 of that deal. It’s longterm suicide for a quick fix this season and maybe next. Sekera is proven and signing him involved giving an older player a big long contract – respecting the cap demands that we only get one of those. Fayne should be OK and Klef should join the ranks of the proven by the end of this season. Shultz will take a 1 year deal though arb or agreement – either he can develop a more rounded game under TMac or he’s gone – but he’s on a “show me” deal. GR is 3rd pair and sheltered this season along with Gryba. Nurse should start in the AHL until at least Christmas – let him tear it up and make the inevitable rookie mistakes in the AHL.

    That leaves Ference who absolutely needs to be bought out since he has been one of the worst performing dmen on the Oilers over the past decade (some feat considering the competition) and Nikitin would may possibly be useful for a season. You can optimistically imagine Nikitin providing at least replacement level performance – but Ference is an utter black hole – and the team is far better off by simply getting rid of him.

    We are in a tricky place – would be nice to improve by bringing in an older player – but that guy will be expensive and could potentially cost us a core piece thorough cap issues down the road. Running with Klef, GR & Nurse mitigates the cap issues but they need another 1.5-2 seasons of seasoning and nothing is guaranteed. Patience is required – if a UFA like Franson or Erhoff is willing to take 2 years then great – if we can trade for a guy with 2 years left on the clock then great. But we can’t push it right now by offering another big long term deal to an older guy who may not be necessary medium term and will cost us something we don’t want to give up down the road

    Agreed all points.

  174. Richard S.S. says:

    Wooooooooooot.

    I think the issue with the Schultz contract is as follows:
    1) Chiarelli want something like a one year “show me” contract at very close to last year’s numbers.
    2) The Schultz group wants something along the lines of a Petry/Sekera contract.
    That’s seems like the only reason it’s taking so long; nothing else makes much sense.

  175. hunter1909 says:

    Richard S.S.: 1) Chiarelli want something like a one year “show me” contract at very close to last year’s numbers.

    Sorry to derail your train of thought, but this reminded me of MacT’s famous “show me” contract offer to Jeff Petry. Could a High School student do any worse?

  176. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money: It’s also helpful to make misleading edits.

    I prefer to highlight the relevant part, hit quote for a different post, curse at the wrong person for saying whatever they said, and then ignore all replies. Everybody wins.

  177. hunter1909 says:

    NOTE to former MacT apologists: Chiarelli IS the textbook definition of a smart person who wears glasses.

  178. Pouzar says:

    godot10:
    Suggestion:

    Trade 1 year of Nikitin to Tampa for 3 years of Matt Carle.It would allow Yzerman the space to re-sign Coburn.

    Carle is not as good as Seabrook, but he is better than Franson, and the duration is manageable, only 3 years.

    I suggested Carle a few weeks back. Seems like a decent bet.

  179. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: One of the most significant coaching changes will be the break out imo.

    Totally on board with this. It’s going to look funny to our eye when the Oilers support the puck from beneath the play instead of hoping for a miracle stretch or fortunate lob into the N-zone. (Chip off the glass)

    TmC breakouts are very strong. It allows 2 of 3 forwards to get to near full speed by the time they hit center ice.

  180. Pouzar says:

    AsiaOil:
    All this Seabrook talk is ridiculous – there is no cap room for any extension longer than 2 years thatdoes not cost you a younger core player (or 2) in years 3-5 of that deal. It’s longterm suicide for a quick fix this season and maybe next. Sekera is proven and signing him involved giving an older player a big long contract – respecting the cap demands that we only get one of those. Fayne should be OK and Klef should join the ranks of the proven by the end of this season. Shultz will take a 1 year deal though arb or agreement – either he can develop a more rounded game under TMac or he’s gone – but he’s on a “show me” deal. GR is 3rd pair and sheltered this season along with Gryba. Nurse should start in the AHL until at least Christmas – let him tear it up and make the inevitable rookie mistakes in the AHL.

    That leaves Ference who absolutely needs to be bought out since he has been one of the worst performing dmen on the Oilers over the past decade (some feat considering the competition) and Nikitin would may possibly be useful for a season. You can optimistically imagine Nikitin providing at least replacement level performance – but Ference is an utter black hole – and the team is far better off by simply getting rid of him.

    We are in a tricky place – would be nice to improve by bringing in an older player – but that guy will be expensive and could potentially cost us a core piece thorough cap issues down the road. Running with Klef, GR & Nurse mitigates the cap issues but they need another 1.5-2 seasons of seasoning and nothing is guaranteed. Patience is required – if a UFA like Franson or Erhoff is willing to take 2 years then great – if we can trade for a guy with 2 years left on the clock then great. But we can’t push it right now by offering another big long term deal to an older guy who may not be necessary medium term and will cost us something we don’t want to give up down the road

    Read this Chia and move on.

  181. Dee Dee says:

    The trick to performing a buyout is to make sure you spend the recovered money wisely and not immediately re-invest in a new turd, as the Oilers have done time after timer after time. Plus the Oilers have pissed away how much money by placing rookie players directly in the league, way over their heads and burning up valuable contract time (and money) to finish in 30th place, over and over.

    Posters here have beat the buyout Ference horse to death, repeatedly, for a long time.

    Ignoring the fact that he has a NMC, and signed here as a UFA, when few others would, and is the Captain (for whatever reason).

    Screwing the guy over and forcing him out, when you gave him a contract (for whatever reason) is so old-Kevin-Lowe-style-class that I hope this organization has matured past..

    You signed a contract (for whatever reason) then honour the freaking thing. No one forced the Oilers to bend over and give it to them, this was just another one of the brain trusts brilliant ideas.

    This organization has a history of treating their players like shit. Worse than any other team in the league. Remember Comrie? Souray? The list is rather endless.

    Players in the league remember this, and factor it in as part of their decision to come play here.

    One year and Nikitin is done. Two years and Ference is finished.

    Buying them out just fills up the budget in later years when you have a stable full of first over all picks whose contracts are going to need renegotiating.

    Everyone here wants a #1 defensemen, but no one wants to pay them what they are worth.

    Is a Seabrook at 8 Million an overpay?

    I don’t know.

    But I can do the math.

    Schultz + Nikitin < 8,000,000

    I'd sooner put up with 2 years of Ference's contract and be done with it (while allowing talent to mature in the AHL) than have to deal with 4 years of Ference's contract.

    This time is not winning the Stanley Cup next year

    Or contending for it.

    Or making the playoffs.

  182. rickithebear says:

    Petry’s show me contract showed us
    A 28yr 2nd comp
    poor base defence
    57.35 CA/60
    D can get 5.5 long term.

    it also showed us we can sign a
    A 29 yr 1st comp
    strong base defence
    51.30 CA/60
    D to a 5.5M long term contract.

  183. Halfwise says:

    Dee Dee: You signed a contract (for whatever reason) then honour the freaking thing. No one forced the Oilers to bend over and give it to them, this was just another one of the brain trusts brilliant ideas.

    This organization has a history of treating their players like shit. Worse than any other team in the league. Remember Comrie? Souray? The list is rather endless.

    Players in the league remember this, and factor it in as part of their decision to come play here.

    Hey this select-and-quote feature is cool, and so damn obvious now that it’s been pointed out.

    Dee Dee I think you are forgetting about the other players on the team. Honoring contracts is a condition of performance but it is not the objective.

    Losing games because of the performance of an identifiable player also discourages free agents from coming (and current players from extending) because it is obvious that management is not committed to creating a winner.

    And when that identifiable player gets in front of the media after the game and tells the world that the other players on the team aren’t good enough, the whole team becomes a laughingstock.

  184. pts2pndr says:

    Defense is more than just the pairings and acumen of the defenseman. With Lander, a more experienced Nugent and an actual coach that will bring in a structured system the team defense will be much improved! Bringing on a Seabrook if either of nurse or Klefbom go back the other way is a non starter IMO as his skill level will be deteriorating as the team becomes mature enough to challenge for the cup also cap money will be very tight!

  185. blainer says:

    Dee Dee:
    The trick to performing a buyout is to make sure you spend the recovered money wisely and not immediately re-invest in a new turd, as the Oilers have done time after timer after time. Plus the Oilers have pissed away how much money by placing rookie players directly in the league, way over their heads and burning up valuable contract time (and money) to finish in 30th place, over and over.

    Posters here have beat the buyout Ference horse to death, repeatedly, for a long time.

    Ignoring the fact that he has a NMC, and signed here as a UFA, when few others would, and is the Captain (for whatever reason).

    Screwing the guy over and forcing him out, when you gave him a contract (for whatever reason) is so old-Kevin-Lowe-style-class that I hope this organization has matured past..

    You signed a contract (for whatever reason) then honour the freaking thing. No one forced the Oilers to bend over and give it to them, this was just another one of the brain trusts brilliant ideas.

    This organization has a history of treating their players like shit. Worse than any other team in the league.Remember Comrie? Souray? The list is rather endless.

    Players in the league remember this, and factor it in as part of their decision to come play here.

    One year and Nikitin is done. Two years and Ference is finished.

    Buying them out just fills up the budget in later years when you have a stable full of first over all picks whose contracts are going to need renegotiating.

    Everyone here wants a #1 defensemen, but no one wants to pay them what they are worth.

    Is a Seabrook at 8 Million an overpay?

    I don’t know.

    But I can do the math.

    Schultz + Nikitin<8,000,000

    I’d sooner put up with 2 years of Ference’s contract and be done with it (while allowing talent to mature in the AHL) than have to deal with 4 years of Ference’s contract.

    This time is not winning the Stanley Cup next year

    Or contending for it.

    Or making the playoffs.

    Your point about the oilers may be correct about Souray and comrie. But that was old management.

    Regarding Ference – When a player signs a contact such like Ference the employer ( The Oilers ) expects such player to perform to a level that is equal to the money and term of the deal.

    Ference has not lived up to his end of the deal. it’s not unlike hiring a manager to manage my business for four years and in that time he runs my business into the ground after two years.. Am I foolish enough to keep him on for another two ?

    Not to mention he is the leader of my company and is the worst producer.. Now all the rest of my staff ( the players ) are pissed and don’t give a shit because our leader or captain does not lead himself..

    This manager (player) is too old and his position should be terminated period.. But my gord imagine getting the severance he will get.. Three million plus over four years to stay home with the family.. or just imagine if there is somebody else out there foolish enough to pay said manager to help their team and pay him yet another two million a year.. That new employer should be buyer beware..

    How many of us would like a managers job like that for two years?

    Pro sports are all about living up to the contract.. period. If not you get bought out.. And that’s the company’s fault ?

  186. oilswell says:

    “Steve Smith”: When responding to lengthy comments, please either use “reply” instead of “quote”, or edit the quote down the portion of the post to which you are actually responding.

    Also if you highlight the text you want quoted before you hit the quote link then only that highlighted text will be quoted, and you won’t need to edit down your reply.

    Edit: d’oh, ninjad by МАГИЯ 10

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