OILERS 2015 DRAFT: ONTARIO SPEEDWAY

Scott Cullen is the gold standard voice on specific value for picks in the draft. Although the graph hasn’t changed much over the years (the traditional curve for draft quality by draft order looks like the world’s deadliest ski slope), Cullen upgrades his and we thank him for it. What does Scott say about the Oilers picks? What does he say about the traded picks?

CONNOR MCDAVID AT NO. 1 OVERALL

  • “Average” is first-line F for the No. 1 overall selection.
  • The best No. 1 overall’s (Crosby, Ovechkin) are the de facto best players in the game
  • There’s an 86% chance he’ll be at least a top six forward
  • The lowest No. 1 overall’s (Rick DiPietro, Patrik Stefan) are franchise-defining disappointments.
  • There’s a 100% chance McDavid will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 5% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

MATHEW BARZAL AT NO. 16 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Fringe NHLer for No. 16 overall (200+ games, Paajarvi).
  • The best No. 16 overall’s (Markus Naslund, RJ Umberger) are quality players over a long period.
  • There’s a 24% chance he’ll be a top 6F or better.
  • The lowest No. 16 overall’s (Alex Bourret, Nick Stadjuhar) are extreme disappointments, lost opportunities.
  • There’s a 62% chance Barzal will play 100 games in his career.

(This was part of the price for Griffin Reinhart, who has a 52% chance of being a top 4D and “average” is a top 6D).

MITCHELL STEPHENS AT NO. 33 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Fringe NHLer for No. 33 overall.
  • The best No. 33 overall’s (Doug Weight, James Neal) are quality players over a long period.
  • There’s a 12% chance he’ll be a top 6F or better.
  • There’s a 34% chance Stephens will play 100 games in his career.

(This was part of the price for Griffin Reinhart, who has a 52% chance of being a top 4D or better and “average” is a top 6D).

Cullen: EDM got a 52% chance of top 4D for 24%, 12% chance of top 6F.

reinhart3

JONAS SIEGENTHALER AT N0.57 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for No. 57 overall.
  • The best No. 57 overall’s (Zdeno Chara) are quality players over a long period.
  • There’s a 6% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 29% chance he will play 100 games in his career.

SERGEI ZBOROVSKIY AT NO. 79 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for No. 79 overall.
  • The best No. 79 overall’s (Zdeno Chara) are quality players over a long period.
  • There’s a 9% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 27% chance he will play 100 games in his career.

That’s the main price for Cam Talbot. A 6% and a 9% chance at a top 4D

MIKE ROBINSON AT NO. 86 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for No. 86 overall.
  • The best No. 86 overall’s (Sergei Zubov) are quality players over a long period.

That’s the price for Todd McLellan.

caleb jones capture

CALEB JONES AT NO. 117 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for a player at No. 117 overall.
  • There’s an 4% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 14% chance Jones will play 100 games in his career.

ETHAN BEAR AT NO. 124 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for a player at No. 124 overall.
  • There’s an 4% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 17% chance Bear will play 100 games in his career.

JOHN MARINO AT NO. 154 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for a player at No. 154 overall.
  • There’s an 4% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 16% chance Marino will play 100 games in his career.

These three defenders, taken later in the draft (past No. 100) all have about the same chance of making it as real contributors (about 4%). History suggests we should assume all fall short and then it’ll be a pleasant surprise if they contribute. The last Oilers player who was drafted between 117-154 who played over 250 NHL games? Jason Chimera, 1997. He has now played 869 games in a fine career.

ADAM HUSKA AT NO. 184 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games for a player at No. 184 overall.
  • There’s an 2% chance he’ll be a starter.

Completes Talbot deal. A 6% & 9% chance at top 4D, + 2% chance of starter.

MIROSLAV SVOBODA AT NO. 208 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, 10 or fewer NHL games.

Svoboda was acquired for a seventh-round pick in the 2016 NHL draft. Ivan Barbashev noticed.

ZIYAT PAIGIN AT NO. 209 OVERALL

  • “Average” is Minor Leaguer, 10 or fewer NHL games.
  • There’s an 2% chance he’ll be a top 4D or better.
  • There’s a 8% chance Paigin will play 100 games in his career.

mcdavid draft capture

CONCLUSIONS

  1. McDavid. The human paradigm shift.
  2. Talbot was an impressive return for the ask.
  3. I think they paid more for Reinhart than warranted, but he’s a solid prospect close to NHL-ready.
  4. I like the four defensemen they drafted. They are all long shots.
  5. The goalie is a distant bell and that’s alright with me.

I know people who know people (honest!) and Herbers is very well regarded as a coach. I always like to see the Oilers tap in to the rich coaching pipeline over at the U of A.

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167 Responses to "OILERS 2015 DRAFT: ONTARIO SPEEDWAY"

  1. Marc says:

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 2m2 minutes ago

    Herbers, who was No. 6, played 22 gms on Oilers’ ’93-94 def that also had Beers, Olausson, Mironov, Byakin, Manson, Adam Bennett.#oilers

    Man, it’s easy to forget how ungodly bad those early ’90s Oilers teams were.

  2. Younger Oil says:

    This makes the Reinhart trade seem better, but 2012 was seen as a below average draft, and 2015 was well above average.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    This makes the Reinhart trade seem better, but 2012 was seen as a below average draft, and 2015 was well above average.

    As I mentioned, imo it was an overpay. Cullen’s numbers don’t factor in quality of draft season.

  4. LMHF#1 says:

    Marc:
    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 2m2 minutes ago

    Herbers, who was No. 6, played 22 gms on Oilers’ ’93-94 def that also had Beers, Olausson, Mironov, Byakin, Manson, Adam Bennett.#oilers

    Man, it’s easy to forget how ungodly bad those early ’90s Oilers teams were.

    I’d take Mironov and Manson on my team any day. Classics. Both of them.

  5. fifthcartel says:

    As a U of A student, it’s pretty cool to see Ian Herbers hired by the Oilers.

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Surprised to see Herbers make that move so quickly. What’s the connection to McLellan?

  7. Rondo says:

    Nice article LT.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    LT,

    I don’t know what fantasy land you’re getting this “24% chance at being a top 6 F” for Barzal

    DSF told me he’s going to be Patty Kane to Draisaitl’s Colbourne

  9. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    LT,

    I don’t know what fantasy land you’re getting this “24% chance at being a top 6 F” for Barzal

    DSF told me he’s going to be Patty Kane to Draisaitl’s Colbourne

    That damn Cullen! He lied to me!

  10. John Chambers says:

    Younger Oil:
    This makes the Reinhart trade seem better, but 2012 was seen as a below average draft, and 2015 was well above average.

    Thing is 2015 was an exceptional draft at the top followed by a drop off to virtually a normal draft.

    Do you know how many goals Barzal has in two seasons (103 games) of WHL hockey? Exactly 26, including just 12 his draft year. Roughly 0.25 g / game.

    This is nowhere near elite, and hanging your hat on this guy becoming an Eberle replacement is absurd. Id day the top-end comparable for this player is Mike Cammalleri but more likely in Gagner / Chris Higgins territory. I couldn’t understand the Barzal hype leading up to the draft and think Garth Snow made a misuse of his position of depth of quality defensemen.

    There’s just no good reason to prefer having this player type to Reinhart, especially given our glaring need on defense.

  11. Numenius says:

    Lowetide: As I mentioned, imo it was an overpay.

    It’s one thing to say overpay, and another to say it was a mistake.

    Overpaying for the sake of need/balance can be the right move.

    Are you saying it was also a mistake?

    Assume given the data available to us now, not as proven over time.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Numenius: It’s one thing to say overpay, and another to say it was a mistake.

    Overpaying for the sake of need/balance can be the right move.

    Are you saying it was also a mistake?

    Assume given the data available to us now, not as proven over time.

    No. I don’t think it was a mistake, but it was an overpay imo.

  13. Hammers says:

    Must say I love the Ice District name chosen by Katz . At last a name that actually feels right for Edmonton . Now we need the Team to do it’s bit in fulfilling our dreams for our City . I’m hoping they invite all the legends that played for the Oilers over the years to be there opening night or maybe those players still alive that played from year one to the present . What a gesture that would be .

  14. Pouzar says:

    Oh sh!t

    Mike Harrington ‏@BNHarrington 15m15 minutes ago
    BREAKING: #Sabres center Ryan O’Reilly charged with DWAI and leaving scene of an accident. Incident reported took place Thursday in Ont.

  15. Connor'sreal says:

    Pouzar: Oh sh!t

    Pouzar: DWAI

    I’ll go ahead and ass|u|me you’re not talking about that extra vowel 😉

  16. Melman says:

    Lowetide,

    I like to look at this way: if Reinhart was on the board this year at #16 at his stage when he was drafted would he have been a reasonable pick (in the range) at that # compared to the draft class of 2015. If the answer to that is yes, then paying a #33 for 2 years of post-draft development is fine asset management in my books giving the age/stage of the rest of the roster and the McDavid add.

    I’d love to hear from smarter draftniks than me say whether or not GR at #16 would have been in the range.

  17. Chachi says:

    Pouzar,

    Hopefully someone will ask Dean Lombardi what he would do if one of his players tried to drunk drive through a Tim Horton’s.

  18. Numenius says:

    Lowetide: No. I don’t think it was a mistake, but it was an overpay imo.

    Ah, interesting. To me it seems like the right move too, even if it was an overpay.

    As long as no better deal was available, which it seems there wasn’t. The hole at D was just too big.

  19. Ryan says:

    Todd Mclellan’s one of my favorite coaches in the NHL and not at all because he’s now coaching my favorite team.

    That being said, I am not so sure how happy I am about having Mclellan if the price is Sergei Zubov, dammit. 😉

    Seriously though am I the only one who remembers watching Zubov wearing that giant gold chain around his neck walk the blue line and terrorize the Oilers while playing for the Stars?

  20. Pouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Todd Mclellan’s one of my favorite coaches in the NHL and not at all because he’s now coaching my favorite team.

    That being said, I am not so sure how happy I am about having Mclellan if the price is Sergei Zubov, dammit.

    Seriously though am I the only one who remembers watching Zubov wearing that giant gold chain around his neck walk the blue line and terrorize he Oilers while playing for the Stars?

    Loved Zubov. One of my favorite stats ever was that he lead the ’94 NYR cup team in regular season scoring. 89 points in 78 games. 5 more pts than Messier in just 2 more games.

  21. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer

    Herbers played for McLellan in Cleveland in 2000-01 Bob Stauffer added,
    Robin Brownlee @Robin_Brownlee
    McLellan and Herbers crossed paths in AHL. McLellan was head coach in Houston in 2003-04 when Herbers was assistant with San Antonio.

  22. Mr DeBakey says:

    Hammers: Must say I love the Ice District name chosen by Katz .

    I was hoping for “Paris sur La Prairie”

    Or, Barring that

    “The Banks”

    short for “The Banks of Increased Revenue Streams”

  23. v4ance says:

    http://bloguin.com/puckdrunklove/2015-articles/report-ryan-oreilly-charged-with-drunk-driving-his-truck-into-a-tim-hortons.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=report-ryan-oreilly-charged-with-drunk-driving-his-truck-into-a-tim-hortons

    According to Middlesex County OPP, a green Chevrolet pickup struck struck a commercial building on Richmond St. last Thursday morning (July 9) just after 4:00am. An employee of the Lucan Tim Hortons confirmed to AM980 that there had been a motor vehicle incident, but was unaware of the driver’s identity.

    After the collision, police say a suspect drove the vehicle southbound on Saintsbury Line, before abandoning it and travelling by foot with another, unnamed, male occupant.

    The vehicle was located on Harold Court, while both occupants were found on Main Street.

    Police determined that the the driver had been drinking alcohol. He was arrested, transported to an OPP detachment for breath testing, then released on a promise to appear.

    O’Reilly deactivated his Twitter account on Monday, which was the same day of his arrest. That doesn’t seem to be a coincidence. The report says O’Reilly will answer his impaired charges on August 20th.

  24. Connor'sreal says:

    v4ance: a green Chevrolet pickup

    Made $6M this past season, and drives a green Chevy pickup.

    Maybe his $10M signing bonus next July will help him get something autonomous?

  25. Lowetide says:

    Numenius: Ah, interesting. To me it seems like the right move too, even if it was an overpay.

    As long as no better deal was available, which it seems there wasn’t. The hole at D was just too big.

    I’ve always believed that if you’re convinced of a guy, get him. Reinhart is going to have an excellent chance and I’d bet he takes advantage. The fact that he’s already had pro experience had to have had major appeal.

  26. BlueNoteNorth says:

    52% chance of a top 4D vs a combined 36% chance of a top 6F.

    I would make that deal every day.

    Great move by Chia.

  27. Pouzar says:

    Connor’sreal: Made $6M this past season, and drives a green Chevy pickup.

    Maybe his $10M signing bonus next July will help him get something autonomous?

    ’51 Chevy.

  28. John Chambers says:

    So to recap, Tim Murray has traded two first round picks, a 31 OV pick, Tyler Myers, Brendan Lemieux, Joel Armia, Nikita Zadorov, and Mikhail Grigorenko for:

    A talented player but poor teammate and immature public persona in Kane, an underperforming defenseman deemed to be a poor influence on younger players in Bogosian, a poorly performing young goaltender in Lehner, and drunky McDrivo, talented second-line centre O’Reilly.

    I think the a Sabres will lead the league in cocaine / 60, and rich douchebags destined to follow the career arc of Mike Richards.

    Bottom-3 again next year, no doubt.

  29. Really? says:

    Now there is a character guy to help lead the re-build in Buffalo. Jackasses like him make me MADD.

  30. pocession charge says:

    John Chambers:
    So to recap, Tim Murray has traded two first round picks, a 31 OV pick, Tyler Myers, Brendan Lemieux, Joel Armia, Nikita Zadorov, and Mikhail Grigorenko for:

    A talented player but poor teammate and immature public persona in Kane, an underperforming defenseman deemed to be a poor influence on younger players in Bogosian, a poorly performing young goaltender in Lehner, and drunky McDrivo, talented second-line centre O’Reilly.

    I think the a Sabres will lead the league in cocaine / 60, and rich douchebags destined to follow the career arc of Mike Richards.

    Bottom-3 again next year, no doubt.

    Maybe, but Eichel, Reinhart, Girgensons, and Ristolainen are all studs. It won’t be long before they start winning.

  31. Connor'sreal says:

    Pouzar: ’51 Chevy.

    Cool old truck, but still seems at odds with a mid 20s millionaire.

    And damn, if it’s still stock, those things can be difficult to drive at the best of times, let alone after a beer or two.

  32. Lowetide says:

    One of the great things about the world (or my part of it) today is that drinking and driving is unacceptable. I grew up in an era when people did it and the number of senseless deaths due to it was crazy.

    As dumb as this event is, and it is, I am thrilled that people have their current attitudes about it. It’s always been a stupid damn thing to do.

  33. Glovjuice says:

    Lowetide,

    No but would you take a 3/4 for a decade for this years 16 and 33? Don’t tell us no, it would be a fib.

  34. spoiler says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    52% chance of a top 4D vs a combined 36% chance of a top 6F.

    I would make that deal every day.

    Great move by Chia.

    Well, it’s two separate dice rolls, so you can’t combine them. And it’s not so much a percentage chance on Barzal and Stephens per se as it is 24 out of every hundred and 12 out of every hundred become top 6 players drafted from those spots.

    But, the math sure doesn’t look like an overpay. Especially since the intervening time on the player traded-for allows one to be more sure, reduce risk.

  35. Dashingsilverfox says:

    C’mon folks…some perspective.

    The BobFather had Barzal ranked at #9.

    Had he not been injured in a freak off ice incident he likely would have gone top 5.

    For the sake of argument…let’s says Barzal, who scored more than 1 PPG in both the regular season and the playoffs after returning from a broken knee cap was drafted at #5.

    The last 6 #5 draft picks (with the 5 year rule enforced).

    2010 – Nino Neidereiter

    2009 – Brayden Schenn

    2008 – Luke Schenn

    2007 – Karl Alzner

    2006 – Phil Kessel

    2005 – Carey Price

    Considering the 2015 draft is considered to be the best since 2003, being in the top 10 with a bullet is likely a significant player.

    It’s a very similar situation to the 2012 draft where Galchenyuk fell to #3 because of injury despite being the best forward in the draft.

    Barzal will likely end up playing wing with Tavares,,,and he’s going to kill it.

    Book it.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Glovjuice:
    Lowetide,

    No but would you take a 3/4 for a decade for this years 16 and 33? Don’t tell us no, it would be a fib.

    3 or 4th rounder? No. I wouldn’t make that trade.

  37. Richard S.S. says:

    As I see the O’Reilly disaster, I don’t think any leniency should be show in any way shape or form.
    1) He drove drunk (exceeding legal limits);
    2) He got into an accident;
    3) He fled the scene (of his crime).
    I cannot see him avoiding Jail Time, and I don’t think he should.

  38. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Your math is the most creative I’ve ever seen.

  39. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: Your math is the most creative I’ve ever seen.

    It’s an art…not a science.

  40. RexLibris says:

    I’m sitting here waiting for someone to crack wise about O’Reilly, DWAI, Tim Murray and mushrooms.

    Still nothing?

    Internets you have let me down.

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    I don’t get it.

    We say we want management to make smart decisions as verified by the math/data/analytics and when the GM does exactly that, substantially improving the odds in his favour, we second guess the math and/or the GM

    So math then, only when it verifies bias?

    Reinhart trade ≠ Overpay, unless you’ve chosen to ignore the math. Not only is Reinhart a better % prospect than Barzal, he comes with a larger development sample size which reduces the unknown quantities associated with evaluating him.

    I think the larger issue here is Griffin Reinhart is a defensive defenceman and math has yet to find a way to love this player type. So we decry giving up our precious lottery tickets to buy one when so much tantalizing skill remained on the board.

    But here’s the thing: Guy Lapointe, Ken Daneyko, Derian Hatcher, Adam Foote, Kevin Lowe, Brooks Orpik, etc. This player type HAS value even if the math struggles to quantify it.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I don’t get it.

    We say we want management to make smart decisions on the basis of math/data/analytics and when the GM does exactly that, substantially improving the odds in his favour, we second guess the math and/or the GM

    So math then, only when it verifies bias?

    Reinhard trade ≠ Overpay, unless you’ve chosen to ignore the math. Not only is Reinhart a better % prospect than Barzal, he comes with a larger development sample size which reduces the unknown quantities associated with evaluating him.

    I think the larger issue here is Griffin Reinhart is a defensive defenceman and math has yet to find a way to love this player type. So we decry giving up our precious lottery tickets to buy one when so much tantalizing skill remained on the board.

    But here’s the thing: Guy Lapointe, Ken Daneyko, Derian Hatcher, Adam Foote, Kevin Lowe, Brooks Orpik, Rod Langway, etc. This player type HAS value even if the math struggles to quantify it.

    Not quite right. We’re comparing Cullen’s numbers without also factoring in quality of draft season. If we can all agree that has no impact, then fare thee well. I don’t think that’s reasonable.

  43. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    any math needs all kinds of adjustments, not all drafts are equal, for starters.

  44. Woodguy says:

    This is an answer to Bruce from the previous thread re: RHD

    Haha, that’s more like it.
    BTW, I looked up the top 4 d-men by ATOI on the ten Stanley Cup champions since the lockout, & found this:
    2006 CAR 2 L 2 R
    2007 ANA 4 L
    2008 DET 3 L 1 R
    2009 PIT 4 L
    2010 CHI 3 L 1 R
    2011 BOS 3 L 1 R
    2012 LAK 2 L 2 R
    2013 CHI 3 L 1 R
    2014 LAK 2 L 2 R
    2015 CHI 3 L 1 R
    Add them all up & that’s 29 left shots and 11 right shots (some players listed more than once, of course), but the unbalanced teams managed to survive somehow and win the Cup.
    So it’s not really a first-world problem either. It really isn’t that big of a deal.

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Here’s a list of those RHD:

    2015 CHI – Seabrook
    2014 LAK – Doughty, Voynov
    2013 CHI – Seabrook
    2012 LAK – Doughty, Voynov
    2011 BOS – Boychuck
    2010 CHI – Seabrook
    2009 PIT – You say none, but Letang played a whole 0:07 less per game than #4 Gill
    2008 DET – Rafalski
    2007 ANA – None, but Pronger and Niedermayer on the same team….well….
    2006 – Ward, Commodore (*spits*)

    I still maintain that EDM has a hole on the roster and its 1RD, Commodore aside the Oilers don’t have any RHD near the talent of the players listed above.

    I’m sure if you ask any NHL coach: “Do you care more if the Dman is good or plays his handed side” that the answer is invariably “best player please”

    But, I’m also sure that if you asked any NHL coach “Assuming that all of your Dmen are equally talented and you are given a choice between having 3LHD/3RHD or 4LD/2RHD, what do you choose? every single one of them will choose sticks on the boards because of the natural advantages that it brings.

    There’s a hole in the Dcorps dear Liza dear Liza, there’s a hole in the Dcorps dear Liza a hole.

  45. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: For the sake of argument…

    Do I have your permission to put that on your headstone?

  46. Dashingsilverfox says:

    speeds:
    Bag of Pucks,

    any “math” needs all kinds of adjustments, not all drafts are equal, for starters.

    Exactly.

    Cullen’s numbers are long term averages with no regard for draft strength or weakness.

    In a re draft, Reinhart would likely not be top 10.

    In that same draft, Barzal would have easily been one of the top 3 forwards.

  47. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris: Do I have your permission to put that on your headstone?

    Most certainly not…let’s argue about it 🙂

  48. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: It’s an art…not a science.

    I was never a big fan of the Jackson Pollock school.

  49. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy: There’s a hole in the Dcorps dear Liza dear Liza, there’s a hole in the Dcorps dear Liza a hole.

    Then fix it dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry, Oh fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, fix it.

  50. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Cullen’s numbers are long term averages with no regard for draft strength or weakness.

    In a re draft, Reinhart would likely not be top 10.

    One cup of reason, with 2/3 cup hyperbolic assumption.

    Mix, pour and let set overnight for best results.

    Can you tell us why Reinhart would “likely not be top 10” exactly?

    And keep in mind you’ve already quoted the 5-year rule in an earlier comment to support your argument about why Barzal would be moved from 16th overall, past Bob MacKenzie’s 9th overall ranking, all the way to 5th overall.

    So I would ask that you explain to me (us) how it is you have determined, presumably absent any input via NHL GMs or Head Scouts, that Reinhart, still within the aforementioned 5-year development window, would no longer qualify as being worthy of a top 10 selection.

    You have ten minutes before pencils down. Please show your work.

  51. RexLibris says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Then fix it dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry, Oh fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, fix it.

    With what shall I fix it, dear Liza dear Liza, with what shall I fix it, dear Liza with what?

  52. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Most certainly not…let’s argue about it

    Reminds me of the Simpson’s episode: Hey, you wanna fight? Them’s fightin’ words!

  53. John Chambers says:

    DP

  54. John Chambers says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    That’s why new stats that I’ve seen mentioned on this site such as SA/60 are interesting because we can compare players’ abilities to suppress the other team’s offense which is Reinhart’s calling card, even if it doesn’t lead to a tremendous # of chances for.

    Having a Letestu / Hendricks / Korpse up front along with Reinhart / Gryba on the back end against the Getzlaf / Perry / Sedin / Kopitar, etc seems like a suffocating way to play the opposition’s best lines at home. The Oilers in this case may have a negative Corsi, but they would allow our skill players to run roughshod over the other teams’ weaker lines.

  55. speeds says:

    RexLibris,

    What’s magical about 5 years? You don’t think a player’s value can change within 5 years of being drafted?

  56. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: With what shall I fix it, dear Liza dear Liza, with what shall I fix it, dear Liza with what?

    With a trade dear Henry dear Henry dear Henry, with a trade dear Henry dear Henry a trade

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Not quite right. We’re comparing Cullen’s numbers without also factoring in quality of draft season. If we can all agree that has no impact, then fare thee well. I don’t think that’s reasonable.

    I think the quality of this draft outside the Top 10 has been overhyped because of the quality at the top.

    In reading the draft reports, there was a number of players in the 15-45 range with one dimensional skill sets or noteworthy weaknesses.

    Barzal for instance has a lot of warts in his game so DSF’s Kane comparisons are just white noise from the troll for me. Shiny new toys, etc. We don’t need another Sam Gagner. A Jason Smith will do just fine, thank you.

    Time will tell, We wait. Etc.

  58. pocession charge says:

    Richard S.S.:
    As I see the O’Reilly disaster, I don’t think any leniency should be show in any way shape or form.
    1) He drove drunk (exceeding legal limits);
    2) He got into an accident;
    3) He fled the scene (of his crime).
    I cannot see him avoiding Jail Time, and I don’t think he should.

    That’s maybe a tad draconian, don’t you think? It was a dumb thing to do and there should be consequences, but jail time is too extreme in this case.

  59. v4ance says:

    RexLibris:
    I’m sitting here waiting for someone to crack wise about O’Reilly, DWAI, Tim Murray and mushrooms.

    Still nothing?

    Internets you have let me down.

    Well…

    We ARE talking about O’Reilly in LT’s post titled Ontario Speedway! Speed as in, driving so fast that you drive into a Tim Hortons or speed as in Murray wasn’t JUST on mushrooms when he made some deals for good ole Ontario boys or dealing with Ottawa…

    Sorry. I know it’s weak but it’s early in the week.

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    Some Defenceman are polarizing figures.

    I argued ad infinitum when he was an Oiler that Tom Gilbert was a third pairing Dman on a good team, but of course Corsi loved him and he had those flowing locks so no one bought it. Lo and behold after failing to stick with his hometown team, he’s third pairing D on a good team.

    Now it’s the opposite, math does not love GR but boy my eyes do. Maybe I’m just that blind squirrel that finds a nut every now and then.

  61. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris: One cup of reason, with 2/3 cup hyperbolic assumption.

    Mix, pour and let set overnight for best results.

    Can you tell us why Reinhart would “likely not be top 10″ exactly?

    And keep in mind you’ve already quoted the 5-year rule in an earlier comment to support your argument about why Barzal would be moved from 16th overall, past Bob MacKenzie’s 9th overall ranking, all the way to 5th overall.

    So I would ask that you explain to me (us) how it is you have determined, presumably absent any input via NHL GMs or Head Scouts, that Reinhart, still within the aforementioned 5-year development window, would no longer qualify as being worthy of a top 10 selection.

    You have ten minutes before pencils down. Please show your work.

    These were the defensemen selected in the 1st round of the 2012 draft.

    Rank them however you wish.

    #2 Murray

    #4 Reinhart

    #5 Rielly

    #6 Lindholm

    #7 Dumba

    #8 Pouliot

    #9 Trouba

    #10 Koekkok

    #15 Ceci

    #22 Maata

    #23 Matheson

    #25 Schmaltz

    #28 Skjei

    I can see at least 7 D I would prefer over Reinhart and they’ve already proved it in the NHL.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    t. Lo and behold after failing to stick with his hometown team, he’s third pairing D on a good team.

    Way to be completely wrong.

    He was bought out in MIN because Heatley was injured (and couldn’t be bought out) and Gilbert was the only logical contract to buy out.

    Then he went to FLA and played 1st pair with Campbell. 1st pair, not 3rd.

    Then he went to MTL and was 2RH behind Subban.

    Now that Petry is there and Gilbert is getting older he is sliding down to 3rd pair, but still could be a 2nd pair on a few teams.

  63. StrathOil says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I know time after time you have proven pointless to argue with, however, for argument’s sake, please enlighten me as to which of the top 5 in this draft Barzal overcomes.

    Obviously not McDavid or Eichel.

    Which leaves us with…

    Strome 45-84-129 1.90ppg.

    Marner 44-82-126 2.00ppg.

    Hanifin Scoring 0.62ppg, and by all accounts more than holding his own against older players in the NCAA.

    as compared to:

    Barzal 12-45-57 1.30 ppg.

    Just for argument’s sake of course.

  64. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    t. Lo and behold after failing to stick with his hometown team, he’s third pairing D on a good team.

    Way to be completely wrong.

    He was bought out in MIN because Heatley was injured (and couldn’t be bought out) and Gilbert was the only logical contract to buy out.

    Then he went to FLA and played 1st pair with Campbell. 1st pair, not 3rd.

    Then he went to MTL and was 2RH behind Subban.

    Now that Petry is there and Gilbert is getting older he is sliding down to 3rd pair, but still could be a 2nd pair on a few teams.

    He might even be a potential add in EDM’s mind if MTL is looking to move some money out, one year left on his deal if they are looking for something shorter term.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Some Defenceman are polarizing figures.

    I argued ad infinitum when he was an Oiler that Tom Gilbert was a third pairing Dman on a good team, but of course Corsi loved him and he had those flowing locks so no one bought it. Lo and behold after failing to stick with his hometown team, he’s third pairing D on a good team.

    Now it’s the opposite, math does not love GR but boy my eyes do. Maybe I’m just that blind squirrel that finds a nut every now and then.

    Your framing of Gilbert is unfair, and it’s completely possible to like Reinhart and think it’s an overpay in this trade. Which is the case with me.

  66. Магия 10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    As I see the O’Reilly disaster, I don’t think any leniency should be show in any way shape or form.
    1) He drove drunk (exceeding legal limits);
    2) He got into an accident;
    3) He fled the scene (of his crime).
    I cannot see him avoiding Jail Time, and I don’t think he should.

    Can they ask for the Byng back?

    “exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct”.

  67. John Chambers says:

    I’m firmly in the “Matt Barzal is bullshit, don’t believe the hype” camp.

    Twelve goals this past season. How many forwards drafted in the top-10 have ever posted such a paltry number in the CHL.

  68. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: With a trade dear Henry dear Henry dear Henry, with a trade dear Henry dear Henry a trade

    Not bad. I don’t like how we have to try and squeeze in an extra syllable to “tra-ade”, but let’s keep rolling.

    With what shall I trade dear Liza dear Liza, with what shall I trade, dear Liza with what?

  69. RexLibris says:

    speeds:
    RexLibris,

    What’s magical about 5 years?You don’t think a player’s value can change within 5 years of being drafted?

    I do think a player’s value can change within 5 years.

    I mention it because DSF has quoted it in an earlier argument but then seems to chuck it aside later when he says that Reinhart wouldn’t go in the top ten today.

    We could do re-drafts every three months for eight years and never find a consistent top ten.

  70. Richard S.S. says:

    Магия 10,

    I’m in a good mood today. I usually want a lifetime ban on ever driving again and two to four years in Jail, when I’m not in a good mood

  71. pocession charge says:

    John Chambers:
    I’m firmly in the “Matt Barzal is bullshit, don’t believe the hype” camp.

    Twelve goals this past season. How many forwards drafted in the top-10 have ever posted such a paltry number in the CHL.

    Didn’t Patrick Kane score 12 goals in his draft year?

  72. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    C’mon folks…some perspective.

    The BobFather had Barzal ranked at #9.

    Had he not been injured in a freak off ice incident he likely would have gone top 5.

    For the sake of argument…let’s says Barzal, who scored more than 1 PPG in both the regular season and the playoffs after returning from a broken knee cap was drafted at #5.

    The last 6 #5 draft picks (with the 5 year rule enforced).

    2010 – Nino Neidereiter

    2009 – Brayden Schenn

    2008 – Luke Schenn

    2007 – Karl Alzner

    2006 – Phil Kessel

    2005 – Carey Price

    Considering the 2015 draft is considered to be the best since 2003, being in the top 10 with a bullet is likely a significant player.

    It’s a verysimilar situation to the 2012 draft where Galchenyuk fell to #3 because of injury despite being the best forward in the draft.

    Barzal will likely end up playing wing with Tavares,,,and he’s going to kill it.

    Book it.

    If Reinhart had more PP time in Bridgeport, he’d have been over .7 P/G in the AHL.

    AHL Dmen near/better than .7 P/G in their first AHL season (more than 5 games)

    Karlsson
    Carlson
    Subban
    Ekman Larsson
    Green

    Pretty good company to keep.

    Pretty simple algorithm actually. See, I took a player that I wanted to make a case for, disregarded all facts, then put my own biased projection on him stating it as evidence.

    What evidence was there that Galchenyuk was the best forward in the draft the year before? Why isn’t Forsberg the best forward in the draft?

    *pushnarrativepushnarrativepushfalsnarrativepushfalsenarrative* *narcissismoverloadnarcissismoverload*

  73. LadiesloveSmid says:

    pocession charge: Didn’t Patrick Kane score 12 goals in his draft year?

    I’ll tell you two guys who scored 12 goals in their draft year.

    Mathew “Patty Kane” Barzal and Griffin “5/6” Reinhart!

  74. pocession charge says:

    I live a perfect life so I can chastise anyone who makes a mistake because then I can feel even better about myself.

  75. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: These were the defensemen selected in the 1st round of the 2012 draft.

    Rank them however you wish.

    #2 Murray

    #4 Reinhart

    #5 Rielly

    #6 Lindholm

    #7 Dumba

    #8 Pouliot

    #9 Trouba

    #10 Koekkok

    #15 Ceci

    #22 Maata

    #23 Matheson

    #25 Schmaltz

    #28 Skjei

    I can see at least 7 D I would prefer over Reinhart and they’ve already proved it in the NHL.

    You said top 10.

    Are we limiting the re-draft to defensemen?

    If so, then you’ve said there are 7 defensemen you’d prefer to Reinhart which still leaves 3 positions.

    If not, then asking me to rank the defensemen you’ve listed serves no purpose and merely deflects from the fact that you still haven’t shown me why I should ignore the 5 year draft rule and declare that Reinhart is no longer deserving of being chosen at the top of his draft class AND why I should ignore the considered and informed opinions of professionals in the business of talent evaluation.

    Your turn.

  76. dustrock says:

    Richard S.S.:
    As I see the O’Reilly disaster, I don’t think any leniency should be show in any way shape or form.
    1) He drove drunk (exceeding legal limits);
    2) He got into an accident;
    3) He fled the scene (of his crime).
    I cannot see him avoiding Jail Time, and I don’t think he should.

    Uhhhh unless that state has mandatory minimum sentences for DUIs there is zero chance ROR does time.

  77. thehop says:

    DSF post more crap.

    *throws lowetide jersey on the ice*

  78. Henry says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Then fix it dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry, Oh fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, fix it.

    I’m on my break.

  79. RexLibris says:

    So we have news that O’Reilly was charged with Driving While Ability Impaired.

    Anyone have supported evidence as to what that may entail?

    From a distance it could be anything from driving with only one contact lens in to being doped up on prescription medication to commenting on a blog while driving the 401 to Toronto.

  80. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Not bad. I don’t like how we have to try and squeeze in an extra syllable to “tra-ade”, but let’s keep rolling.

    With what shall I trade dear Liza dear Liza, with what shall I trade, dear Liza with what?

    Three for one dear Henry dear Henry dear Henry, Three for one dear Henry dear Henry Three for one

  81. RexLibris says:

    Henry: I’m on my break.

    Damned unions. They’ll be the death of this country.

  82. Lowetide says:

    pocession charge:
    I live a perfect life so I can chastise anyone who makes a mistake because then I can feel even better about myself.

    And yet you’re NEVER at the meetings!

  83. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    So we have news that O’Reilly was charged with Driving While Ability Impaired.

    Anyone have supported evidence as to what that may entail?

    From a distance it could be anything from driving with only one contact lens in to being doped up on prescription medication to commenting on a blog while driving the 401 to Toronto.

    Hitting a Tim Horton’s at 4am, fleeing the scene then abandoning the vehicle narrows the field a bit.

  84. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: ompletely possible to like Reinhart and think it’s an overpay in this trade

    In a 2012 redraft should GR go before before the 2012 equivalent of this year’s 16?

    Is the 33 a fair price for the 3 year shortcut?

    Which of the above is your concern? Or both?

  85. LadiesloveSmid says:

    thehop:
    DSF post more crap.

    *throws lowetide jersey on the ice*

    I have to point out how ludicrous it is, right!!??

    Gord damn I goofed and fed the troll. My bad

  86. Dashingsilverfox says:

    John Chambers:
    I’m firmly in the “Matt Barzal is bullshit, don’t believe the hype” camp.

    Twelve goals this past season. How many forwards drafted in the top-10 have ever posted such a paltry number in the CHL.

    Barzal finished second in scoring on the Seattle Thunderbirds despite missing 28 games.

    He finished the regular season at 1.29 PPG which translates to a 93 point season which would rank him 5th in WHL scoring despite playing on one of the lowest scoring teams in the WHL.

    In the playoffs, he scored 1.33PPG.

    Leon Draisailtl scored 1.52 PPG.

    Draisaitl played for a much better hockey team and is ALMOST TWO YEARS OLDER than Barzal.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    t. Lo and behold after failing to stick with his hometown team, he’s third pairing D on a good team.

    Way to be completely wrong.

    He was bought out in MIN because Heatley was injured (and couldn’t be bought out) and Gilbert was the only logical contract to buy out.

    Then he went to FLA and played 1st pair with Campbell. 1st pair, not 3rd.

    Then he went to MTL and was 2RH behind Subban.

    Now that Petry is there and Gilbert is getting older he is sliding down to 3rd pair, but still could be a 2nd pair on a few teams.

    Failed to stick with Minny. True. Only logical contract to move out. Couldn’t agree more.

    FLA. Bad team

    MtL. 2nd pairing when there’s injuries. Third pairing when there’s not.

  88. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock: Uhhhh unless that state has mandatory minimum sentences for DUIs there is zero chance ROR does time.

    State of Ontario. Not the speedway.

    6 month max for leaving the scene,. Probably gets suspended sentenxe and community service for that.

  89. DDane0208 says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Dashingsilverfox: These were the defensemen selected in the 1st round of the 2012 draft.

    Rank them however you wish.

    #2 Murray

    #4 Reinhart

    #5 Rielly

    #6 Lindholm

    #7 Dumba

    #8 Pouliot

    #9 Trouba

    #10 Koekkok

    #15 Ceci

    #22 Maata

    #23 Matheson

    #25 Schmaltz

    #28 Skjei

    I can see at least 7 D I would prefer over Reinhart and they’ve already proved it in the NHL.

    </blockquot

    Dashingsilverfox,
    I agree with your current take on the 6-7 Defence listed based on their body of work to date. I do not agree about Barzal. No indication or body of work to date that shows he will a star. Comparison to Kane is truly laughable.
    I understand you grab at straws to prove a point but I have seen nothing compelling regarding Barzal. With Barzal being ranked @ 9 by Bob McK (list by 10 scout consensus)… Why oh why would would he not be chosen at or near his especially being a player of need. Including the 9th spot there was 7 teams who passed on him. To make it more laughable I believe there were 5 wingers at or after the 9th spot before he was taken by the Isle.
    This leads me to believe that a bunch of the scouts Bob McK compiles his list from work for the Islanders.
    Ill be cheering for both players to have successful careers.
    BTW how about Canucks? Or Florida ? Can’t believe your appointed star GM from Florida could have passed on Barzal at 11. I guess Talon makes mistakes too

  90. Woodguy says:

    speeds: He might even be a potential add in EDM’s mind if MTL is looking to move some money out, one year left on his deal if they are looking for something shorter term.

    I don’t see room for him.

    I aim a lot higher.

  91. flyfish1168 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: These were the defensemen selected in the 1st round of the 2012 draft.

    Rank them however you wish.

    #2 Murray

    #4 Reinhart

    #5 Rielly

    #

    6 Lindholm
    #7 Dumba

    #8 Pouliot

    #9 Trouba

    #10 Koekkok

    #15 Ceci

    #22 Maata

    #23 Matheson

    #25 Schmaltz

    #28 Skjei

    I can see at least 7 D I would prefer over Reinhart and they’ve already proved it in the NHL.

    2-Murray not a chance to many injuries already
    4 Reinhardt – very tough list of D-men in the NHL level to crack
    5 Rielly – Yes we can use a player like Morgan – But at this point there is lots of hype from center of the universe media still to early to tell
    6 Lindholm – yes he is good and he is playing on a team deep with d-men
    7 Dumba – Known to rush prospects, ok but at this point i would say for sure GR can make this team
    8 Pouliot – Cap issue team and still not full time on a weak dmen team out side of Letang
    10 Koekkok – no
    15 Ceci – GR can make this line up.
    22 Maata diagnosis with cancer once unfortunately stay away
    23 Matheson – no
    25 Schmaltz – no
    28 Skjei – no

    I count two players on your list i would trade GR for. Lindholm and Rielly (only because of need). The others are at best a saw off but are playing because they are on a weaker line of of d-men. I would say with confidence Griffin would be able to make the Pens, Senators, wilds, Jets and TO line up. They all have a weaker line of D-men then the Islanders. You have to take that into consideration before making a poor judgement. JMHO

  92. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10: In a 2012 redraft should GR go before before the 2012 equivalent of this year’s 16?

    Is the 33 a fair price for the 3 year shortcut?

    Which of the above is your concern? Or both?

    For me, the players available (Barzal and Harkins would have been the picks based on my list at No. 16 and No. 33) merited something more coming back from NY Islanders.

  93. speeds says:

    Woodguy: I don’t see room for him.

    I aim a lot higher.

    I’m not saying don’t aim higher, but I can imagine that the team might prefer Gilbert to no other move, or Gilbert to a deal/signing that nets a better player but also comes with longer term implications that they don’t particularly like.

  94. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Three for one dear Henry dear Henry dear Henry, Three for one dear Henry dear Henry Three for one

    SSSHHHHH! Do you want to get us both banned?!

    *looks over shoulder to see if teacher LT heard*

    😉

  95. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: And yet you’re NEVER at the meetings!

    Plausible deniability for the future in case of a grand jury.

  96. Chachi says:

    Dashingsilverfox: ALMOST TWO YEARS OLDER

    YELLING THINGS DOES NOT MAKE THEM TRUE!

  97. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris: Damned unions. They’ll be the death of this country.

    Bring back Maggie Thatcher. Best union breaker ever.

  98. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: SSSHHHHH! Do you want to get us both banned?!

    *looks over shoulder to see if teacher LT heard*

    The day of the three-for-one, I bring out the balance photo. Seriously.

  99. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Hitting a Tim Horton’s at 4am, fleeing the scene then abandoning the vehicle narrows the field a bit.

    Hadn’t heard/read that.

    Kind of clears things up a bit.

    What was it LT was saying last season about young men given lots of money and their likely survival rate?

    I positive we have some actuaries here somewhere. Anyone got a table on the life expectancy of men under 27 years old whose annual rate of take home pay is around $5 million?

  100. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: The day of the three-for-one, I bring out the balance photo. Seriously.

    With all due respect and deference, the day the 3 for 1 happens, I don’t expect you to be sober enough to actually log into your site.

    Again, with all due respect and deference. Heck, we might all tie one on if a Pronger deal happens again.

  101. RexLibris says:

    oliveoilers: Bring back Maggie Thatcher.Best union breaker ever.

    She and Ronnie.

    They understood a thing or two about trickle-down economics if there’s ever any concern.

  102. steveb12344 says:

    RexLibris,

    http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/report-drunk-ryan-o%e2%80%99reilly-drove-truck-into-a-tim-hortons/ar-AAcWbFP?ocid=U305DHP

    After the collision, police say a suspect drove the vehicle southbound on Saintsbury Line, before abandoning it and travelling by foot with another, unnamed, male occupant.

    The vehicle was located on Harold Court, while both occupants were found on Main Street.

    Police determined that the the driver had been drinking alcohol. He was arrested, transported to an OPP detachment for breath testing, then released on a promise to appear.

  103. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    dustrock: Uhhhh unless that state has mandatory minimum sentences for DUIs there is zero chance ROR does time.

    He was at a Timmies near Lucan Ontario. Not in any state.

    Except the state of inebriation (allegedly).

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    John Chambers:
    Bag of Pucks,

    That’s why new stats that I’ve seen mentioned on this site such as SA/60 are interesting because we can compare players’ abilities to suppress the other team’s offense which is Reinhart’s calling card, even if it doesn’t lead to a tremendous # of chances for.

    Having a Letestu / Hendricks / Korpse up front along with Reinhart / Gryba on the back end against the Getzlaf / Perry / Sedin / Kopitar, etc seems like a suffocating way to play the opposition’s best lines at home. The Oilers in this case may have a negative Corsi, but they would allow our skill players to run roughshod over the other teams’ weaker lines.

    Like it.

  105. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: For me, the players available (Barzal and Harkins would have been the picks based on my list at No. 16 and No. 33) merited something more coming back from NY Islanders.

    But that doesn’t really stand up because you make the deal and maybe Harkins is 27th on your list and you’re thinking that you’re giving up a range of players that don’t move the needle forward and a 2nd round pick which you would not have predicted could have garnered a player of that caliber.

    You make the deal based on your best guess of who will be available at #s 16 and 33.

    I was mad as hell that weekend, but mostly because the Reinhart deal was left to stand in direct and glaring comparison to the Hamilton deal where Don “You can’t spell TEAM with I but there are two of them in IDIOT” Sweeney gifted the fans of Mos Eisley Spaceport a 22-year old stud defenseman.

    However, if the Oilers had selected Barzal at #16 we’d be sitting here right now talking about them taking a small C likely to move to the wing and with a recent history of serious injury rather than trading the pick for a player who was closer to NHL ready and could address organizational need more readily.

    If we give MacTavish a pass on the 2nd rounder (Barbashev) that went to the Blues for Perron, we have to allow Chiarelli the same latitude in this deal. And smile at the coincidence of the provenance of the trade and a gifted player falling to the 2nd round both times.

  106. RexLibris says:

    steveb12344:
    RexLibris,

    http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/report-drunk-ryan-o%e2%80%99reilly-drove-truck-into-a-tim-hortons/ar-AAcWbFP?ocid=U305DHP

    After the collision, police say a suspect drove the vehicle southbound on Saintsbury Line, before abandoning it and travelling by foot with another, unnamed, male occupant.

    The vehicle was located on Harold Court, while both occupants were found on Main Street.

    Police determined that the the driver had been drinking alcohol. He was arrested, transported to an OPP detachment for breath testing, then released on a promise to appear.

    Sakic and Roy are probably breathing a sigh of relief right now.

    I feel for Murray.

    You make the trade, then invest a boatload of money into the player and they do this.

  107. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Chachi: YELLING THINGS DOES NOT MAKE THEM TRUE!

    YES IT DOES.

  108. frjohnk says:

    2015 Future Watch
    1. Sam Reinhart
    2. Sam Bennett
    3. Leon Draisaitl
    4. Nikolaj Ehlers
    5. Max Domi
    6. Anthony Mantha
    7. Darnell Nurse
    8. Andrei Vasilevskiy
    9. Teuvo Teravainen
    10. Dylan Larkin
    11. William Nylander
    12. Michael Dal Colle
    13. Griffin Reinhart

    This was in March of this year. Note that he is the 2nd best rated D prospect.

    In The Hockey News Future Watch rankings they talk to scouts from every NHL team and ask them to project five to 10 years out on the best players in the system league-wide.

    According to the consensus of these NHL scouts from March of this year, Reinharts ceiling is a top pairing D man and is still tracking in that area but with possibility of falling down all the way to a 4/5 D man. * Every prospect is given a floor. Guessing it gives scouts some wiggle room. For example, Sam Bennett is seen as a top line forward but his floor is a 3rd liner.

    Still lots of track left in the 2012 draft and Reinhart has lots of time to write his story

    Like I said before

    Reinhart is now an Oiler and is one of my favorite 23 NHL players

  109. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: YES IT DOES.

    I AM 25 YEARS OLD AND MY NAME IS WARREN BUFFETT!

    Now, if you’ll excuse me I’m going to go check my bank statement to see if this is true.

    I’ll keep you all posted.

  110. Chachi says:

    Dashingsilverfox: YES IT DOES.

    I STAND CORRECTED.

  111. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: But that doesn’t really stand up because you make the deal and maybe Harkins is 27th on your list and you’re thinking that you’re giving up a range of players that don’t move the needle forward and a 2nd round pick which you would not have predicted could have garnered a player of that caliber.

    You make the deal based on your best guess of who will be available at #s 16 and 33.

    I was mad as hell that weekend, but mostly because the Reinhart deal was left to stand in direct and glaring comparison to the Hamilton deal where Don “You can’t spell TEAM with I but there are two of them in IDIOT” Sweeney gifted the fans of Mos Eisley Spaceport a 22-year old stud defenseman.

    However, if the Oilers had selected Barzal at #16 we’d be sitting here right now talking about them taking a small C likely to move to the wing and with a recent history of serious injury rather than trading the pick for a player who was closer to NHL ready and could address organizational need more readily.

    If we give MacTavish a pass on the 2nd rounder (Barbashev) that went to the Blues for Perron, we have to allow Chiarelli the same latitude in this deal. And smile at the coincidence of the provenance of the trade and a gifted player falling to the 2nd round both times.

    Sure it does. I’m already thrilled that Barzal falls—even if he never plays for my team that’s a great trade asset—and then I get ANOTHER terrific center in round two. That’s A LOT of talent, it just is.

  112. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Not quite right. We’re comparing Cullen’s numbers without also factoring in quality of draft season. If we can all agree that has no impact, then fare thee well. I don’t think that’s reasonable.

    I agree draft classes are a factor. As I’ve learned from you as well, we’re 5 years away from being able to properly grade this one. So any allegation of overpay are based on prognostication/forecasting models, correct? In other words, educated guesswork.

    On the large sample size of historical data which accurately grades draft prospect to pro player realization, he traded 52% for 1×24% and 1×12%

    Choosing to ignore the largest dataset for a more favourable ‘forecast’ is the very definition of ‘smartest man in the room thinking.’

    Sorry, I’m not trying to be rude here but 1) imo you’re placing too much emphasis on draft class hype & 2) underrating the value of defensive play as a skillset in prospect evaluation.

    Btw, kudos and much thanks for the Andrew Miller shoutout. I really hope they play him with skill and give him a fair shake in camp.

  113. thehop says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    It’s okay man but its really not at the same time. I take beer timeout with the hope that his majesty would get tired of soiling a decent thread with the same tired “barzal=praise/reinhart is the eleventh best dman from 2012 draft” argument but alas I am trumped once again.

  114. Snowman says:

    pocession charge: That’s maybe a tad draconian, don’t you think?It was a dumb thing to do and there should be consequences, but jail time is too extreme in this case.

    I had a friend killed by a drunk driver in high school. We were at a party. My friend was drinking and made the right choice and walked home. He was hit by a much stupider person who was drinking and decided to drive and killed my friend.

    Anybody that drinks and drives deserves as much punishment as the world can give them in my opinion. Its a stupid selfish act that costs lives. Not like he couldn’t afford a taxi.

    I hope he goes to jail. He deserves it.

  115. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Sure it does. I’m already thrilled that Barzal falls—even if he never plays for my team that’s a great trade asset—

    Barzal was used as a trade asset. Snow may not make that trade of Barzal’s not there. So they essentially cashed their extra small forward who fell on draft day for a D on his entry level, a position of need.

    I also think the deal is an overpay, but that’s based off the 33rd, which I think was a bit much. Would have preferred something later given the value I suspected would still be on the board at 33.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    My point is that Chiarelli made the deal before he knew who was going to fall and if he has a strong belief that he can keep the 2nd rounder and get 1st round talent out of it maybe he counters with offering a good prospect instead who would otherwise be blocked by the addition of Reinhart.

    Here’s where I’m coming from: if we think of it in terms of a timeline. We have to put ourselves in Chiarelli’s shoes in which case we’re looking down the line at unkowns. Others who are more highly critical of the move may stand at the end of the timeline and look backwards.

    I think the premise of your article stands in that you do the math and the percentages add up in your favour. Was it a deeper draft? Absolutely. Was I as angry as everybody that they traded away all these assets so quickly, leaving them on the outside looking in on what some had considered a once-in-a-decade draft? Oh you betcha.

    The funny thing is, I think we’re i complete agreement here.

    I think it was an overpay with the 2nd rounder. I’d rather they’d moved a prospect instead, however, I don’t think it was so much of an overpay – at the time that Chiarelli made the deal – that it was prohibitive.

    To put it another way, it was an overpay akin to buying gas on the long weekend. You now you’re shelling out an extra 10 cents on the liter, but you do it anyways because you have to get where you’re going and it is just the cost of doing business at that time.

  117. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: Barzal was used as a trade asset. Snow may not make that trade of Barzal’s not there. So they essentially cashed their extra small forward who fell on draft day for a D on his entry level, a position of need.

    I also think the deal is an overpay, but that’s based off the 33rd, which I think was a bit much. Would have preferred something later given the value I suspected would still be on the board at 33.

    We should probably note that if you take the Reinhart and Talbot deals together, it doesn’t look so bad.

    If they moved #s 16 and 57 for Reinhart and #s 33 + for Talbot we’re here today saying “you know, that’s fair value if they can re-sign Talbot.”

    I believe it was LT who first made that point and it helped take some of the steam out of my frustration.

  118. Pouzar says:

    Ian Herbers eh…I thought the OBC was a thing of the past?

  119. voxwah says:

    Lowetide: The day of the three-for-one, I bring out the balance photo. Seriously.

    I think you have been cheering for the 3 for 1 for so long LT that inflation is now involved. It’s actually a 4 for 1 they are after now. Thats why it’s taking so long.

  120. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide: As I mentioned, imo it was an overpay. Cullen’s numbers don’t factor in quality of draft season.

    This —–>>>>> all day long.

    If you look at some of the deep drafts historically you see outstanding NHL players throughout the first round and a few Olympians (Canada USA & Swden–tough teams to make) in the 2nd round. No clue if ’15 is that kind of draft but if it is you could see the best player on their NHL team in the 2nd half of 1st round. It’s also why the Oilers having 3 1st round picks in weak ’07 draft was less than optimal.

  121. RexLibris says:

    voxwah: I think you have been cheering for the 3 for 1 for so long LT that inflation is now involved. It’s actually a 4 for 1 they are after now. Thats why it’s taking so long.

    It’s not inflation.

    The Oilers have been manipulating their economic position by actively pursuing devaluation. Please refer to the Gagner, Sam spreadsheet for further data.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sorry, I’m not trying to be rude here but 1) imo you’re placing too much emphasis on draft class hype & 2) underrating the value of defensive play as a skillset in prospect evaluation.

    No worries, I’m enjoying the conversation. Your second point could absolutely be true.

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wtf does everyone saying overpay choose to ignore the fact that #33 was supposedly ear marked for Talbot and when Chia got him for less, it was a wash?

    Even if Chia did overpay for GR and that’s a big IF, it didn’t cost him Talbot. He got the two players he targeted for a fair total outlay.

    Honestly, this is like complaining about the gorgeous redhead in your threesome cos in your fantasy, it was always a blonde and a brunette.

    Oops, see that Rex beat me to it.

  124. Connor'sreal says:

    Pouzar: I thought the OBC was a thing of the past?

    OBC only applies to players who partied with Katz in the 80s.

  125. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    I should also take a moment to applaud you here, LT.

    Tonight, and more and more recently, nobody has said a thing about Connor McDavid.

    We’re focusing on other players, situations and the like rather than pinning everything on him all the time.

    And I hear he is pretty good.

    Could become a 2nd line center in the NHL.

    Playing ahead of Nugent-Hopkins.

  126. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: I don’t see room for him.

    I aim a lot higher.

    At whom?

  127. Dashingsilverfox says:

    wheatnoil: Barzal was used as a trade asset. Snow may not make that trade of Barzal’s not there. So they essentially cashed their extra small forward who fell on draft day for a D on his entry level, a position of need.

    I also think the deal is an overpay, but that’s based off the 33rd, which I think was a bit much. Would have preferred something later given the value I suspected would still be on the board at 33.

    Snow said explicitly, after the draft, that he would not have made the trade if Barzal wasn’t available.

    We’ll find out who was wrong and who was right over the next few seasons.

  128. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Wtf does everyone saying overpay choose to ignore the fact that #33 was supposedly ear marked for Talbot and when Chia got him for less, it was a wash?

    Even if Chia did overpay for GR and that’s a big IF, it didn’t cost him Talbot. He got the two players he needed for a fair total outlay.

    Honestly, this is like complainting about the gorgeous redhead in your threesome cos in your fantasy, it was always a blonde and a brunette.

    See above.

    Also, if the “gorgeous redhead” in my bed is Eric Stoltz, you are damned well guaranteed I’m gonna be complaining!

  129. RexLibris says:

    Numenius: At whom?

    Well, up until recently I’d have said Laforge. Now? Hard to say.

  130. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    My point is that Chiarelli made the deal before he knew who was going to fall and if he has a strong belief that he can keep the 2nd rounder and get 1st round talent out of it maybe he counters with offering a good prospect instead who would otherwise be blocked by the addition of Reinhart.

    Here’s where I’m coming from: if we think of it in terms of a timeline. We have to put ourselves in Chiarelli’s shoes in which case we’re looking down the line at unkowns. Others who are more highly critical of the move may stand at the end of the timeline and look backwards.

    I think the premise of your article stands in that you do the math and the percentages add up in your favour. Was it a deeper draft? Absolutely. Was I as angry as everybody that they traded away all these assets so quickly, leaving them on the outside looking in on what some had considered a once-in-a-decade draft? Oh you betcha.

    The funny thing is, I think we’re i complete agreement here.

    I think it was an overpay with the 2nd rounder. I’d rather they’d moved a prospect instead, however, I don’t think it was so much of an overpay – at the time that Chiarelli made the deal – that it was prohibitive.

    To put it another way, it was an overpay akin to buying gas on the long weekend. You now you’re shelling out an extra 10 cents on the liter, but you do it anyways because you have to get where you’re going and it is just the cost of doing business at that time.

    Yes, agreed. I feel it was an overpay, but not to the point where I’m going back to the store for a refund because buyer’s remorse. It was a calculated risk, and as mentioned earlier I’ve always felt that if the scout says get the guy, you get the guy.

    And Green probably believes in Reinhart absolutely. Either way, I like Reinhart and glad he’s aboard. I also think (and this isn’t meant to be mean) that it’s probably a good thing EDM didn’t draft him. He might have been in the NHL at 18 as an Oiler.

  131. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris: See above.

    Also, if the “gorgeous redhead” in my bed is Eric Stoltz, you are damned well guaranteed I’m gonna be complaining!

    The redhead in your nightmare is Johnny Hockey and his step brother Sean Monahan,

  132. Mr DeBakey says:

    RexLibris: I positive we have some actuaries here somewhere. Anyone got a table on the life expectancy of men under 27 years old whose annual rate of take home pay is around $5 million?

    Actuaries deal with the Law of Large Numbers.
    So don’t hold yer breath

  133. El Duderino says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Mr. Fox, you need some medical help.

  134. One-Timer says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    C’mon folks…some perspective.

    The BobFather had Barzal ranked at #9.

    Had he not been injured in a freak off ice incident he likely would have gone top 5.

    For the sake of argument…let’s says Barzal, who scored more than 1 PPG in both the regular season and the playoffs after returning from a broken knee cap was drafted at #5.

    The last 6 #5 draft picks (with the 5 year rule enforced).

    2010 – Nino Neidereiter

    2009 – Brayden Schenn

    2008 – Luke Schenn

    2007 – Karl Alzner

    2006 – Phil Kessel

    2005 – Carey Price

    Considering the 2015 draft is considered to be the best since 2003, being in the top 10 with a bullet is likely a significant player.

    It’s a verysimilar situation to the 2012 draft where Galchenyuk fell to #3 because of injury despite being the best forward in the draft.

    Barzal will likely end up playing wing with Tavares,,,and he’s going to kill it.

    Book it.

    You know, scouts (professionals whose livelihoods usually depend on results) consider factors like injury, I’m pretty sure. Even so, not one of them had Barzal pegged alongside Strome or Hanifin.

    For the sake of argument, lets consider that he was drafted #16.

  135. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: See above.

    Also, if the “gorgeous redhead” in my bed is Eric Stoltz, you are damned well guaranteed I’m gonna be complaining!

    Though I did enjoy his turn in Pulp Fiction, gorgeous and Eric Stolz are not words I would normally associate.

  136. pocession charge says:

    Snowman: I had a friend killed by a drunk driver in high school. We were at a party. My friend was drinking and made the right choice and walked home. He was hit by a much stupider person who was drinking and decided to drive and killed my friend.

    Anybody that drinks and drives deserves as much punishment as the world can give them in my opinion. Its a stupid selfish act that costs lives. Not like he couldn’t afford a taxi.

    I hope he goes to jail. He deserves it.

    I’m sorry for your loss; I’m sure many of us have been affected by drinking and driving. That said, ROR hit a Tim Hortons at 4am in a rural location. Nobody was injured and I’m sure he feels pretty bad about his behavior. Jail time would be unnecessarily harsh in this instance. We should be very careful about passing judgement — a lot of us have made stupid choices while drinking and just got lucky that nothing bad happened.

  137. One-Timer says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Exactly.

    Cullen’s numbers are long term averages with no regard for draft strength or weakness.

    In a re draft, Reinhart would likely not be top 10.

    In that same draft, Barzal would have easily been one of the top 3 forwards.

    Massive 24-hour bump in Reinhart’s stock!

    Yesterday you had him outside the top 20 in a re-draft.

  138. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: We should probably note that if you take the Reinhart and Talbot deals together, it doesn’t look so bad.

    If they moved #s 16 and 57 for Reinhart and #s 33 + for Talbot we’re here today saying “you know, that’s fair value if they can re-sign Talbot.”

    I believe it was LT who first made that point and it helped take some of the steam out of my frustration.

    That’s a separate question, though. The question is: was Reinhart an overpay? If the question is ‘How did Chiarelli do at the draft?’ or ‘How good is Chiarelli at trading?’, then the Talbot deal is relevant and I agree he did well there. However, if we’re lumping draft deals together, then we have to include Marincin for Gryba too.

    I don’t think we’re really disagreeing by much here though, just framing the issue differently.

  139. kevin says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    I should also take a moment to applaud you here, LT.

    Tonight, and more and more recently, nobody has said a thing about Connor McDavid.

    We’re focusing on other players, situations and the like rather than pinning everything on him all the time.

    And I hear he is pretty good.

    Could become a 2nd line center in the NHL.

    Playing ahead of Nugent-Hopkins.

    Rex, this sounds like a cock and bull story.

  140. pocession charge says:

    flyfish1168:

    I count two players on your list i would trade GR for. Lindholm and Rielly (only because of need). The others are at best a saw off but are playing because they are on a weaker line of of d-men. I would say with confidence Griffin would be able to make the Pens, Senators, wilds, Jets and TO line up. They all have a weaker line of D-men then the Islanders. You have to take that into consideration before making a poor judgement. JMHO

    You forgot Trouba who might be the best of the draft class.

  141. oilswell says:

    Woodguy: I still maintain that EDM has a hole on the roster and its 1RD, Commodore aside the Oilers don’t have any RHD near the talent of the players listed above.

    I read the combination of “EDM” and “a hole on the roster” rather uncharatably just now.

    While I have trouble finding fault in your core argument I think some people are just talking about availability and cost. How many LHD could have substituted for Boychuck in Boston where they could have still won? If the answer is non-zero then the question resolves down to how-to-fill. Given the relatively higher availability of LHD compared to RHD it stands to reason that the market should be softer for LHD and thus higher quality LHD should be available for lower cost.

  142. Bruce McCurdy says:

    More than anyone, Mathew Barzal reminds me of Kyle Wellwood.

    Just saying.

  143. Магия 10 says:

    Overpay refers to the market value of the actual assets paid.

    Personally valuing Barzal at 10 does not Increase the market cost of the 16. It just doesn’t. Even if we ignore Sweeney the market knocked Barzal down to at least 14.

    Likewise disagreeing on the value of knocking 3 years off the clock does not change the market value of same.

    There has to be some market value for less wait time and downside risk. 16 and 33 seems about the right market value. Whether or not you personally would pay that value is another thing.

  144. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    This is an answer to Bruce from the previous thread re: RHD

    I’m sure if you ask any NHL coach: “Do you care more if the Dman is good or plays his handed side”that the answer is invariably “best player please”

    But, I’m also sure that if you asked any NHL coach “Assuming that all of your Dmen are equally talented and you are given a choice between having 3LHD/3RHD or 4LD/2RHD, what do you choose?every single one of them will choose sticks on the boards because of the natural advantages that it brings.

    Well they are going to answer the first question first, & it has way less hypotheticals than the second question.

    Otherwise if handedness were the key determinant, in 2007 Randy Carlyle wouldn’t have used (LH) Sean O’Donnell for 20 minutes a night & (RH) Joe DiPenta for 8. Not when he already had 3 lefties playing 30 minutes each. But he went with his best, & they dealt with the supposed disadvantages without a prob.

    And yes, Letang was just outside the top four in 2009, but had he been on the other side of the inch he would have squeaked in at #4 & PIT still woulda had 3 lefties ahead of him. The fact that Letang was a close 5th doesnt discredit the point that PIT was heavily reliant on LHD.

  145. Lois Lowe says:

    I think that the argument that 16 & 33 was an overpay is predicated on a majorly flawed premise. People keep assuming that this was a strong draft year based very little actual data. The top end of the draft looks deep right now, but there’s nothing actually demonstrating that this draft class is anything outside of the normal range.

    The comparison to 2003 is disingenuous. That draft class was strong in hindsight, not prior to. It also doesn’t take into account the effect of the 2004 had on the development of those picks. That’s without even addressing the relationship between scouting and development, let alone the role blind luck has. Tyler Pitlick was a great bet at the time, Mckenzie had him at 26 or something. His subsequent development has been hampered by a fair amount of bad luck. Same with Pouliot’s pubic thing.

  146. thehop says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    More than anyone, Mathew Barzal reminds me of Kyle Wellwood.

    Just saying.

    Oh God no. Jet fuel to the shit fire. Thanks Mr McCurdy.

  147. thehop says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Snow said explicitly, after the draft, that he would not have made the trade ifBarzal wasn’t available.

    We’ll find out who was wrong and who was right over the next few seasons.

    Do you have any links to Snow’s statement?

    Thanks BSF.

  148. Bruce McCurdy says:

    thehop: Oh God no. Jet fuel to the shit fire. Thanks Mr McCurdy.

    Haha, I actually like Barzal plenty, just giving our neighbourhood troll a taste of his own stuff.

  149. Bruce McCurdy says:

    thehop: Do you have any links to Snow’s statement?

    Thanks BSF.

    This tweet from Arthur Staple one such confirmation. Heard multiple variations of it.

  150. speeds says:

    Lois Lowe:

    The comparison to 2003 is disingenuous. That draft class was strong in hindsight, not prior to.

    It was considered an extremely strong draft class prior to the draft.

  151. Connor'sreal says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Mathew Barzal reminds me of Kyle Wellwood.

    I love you man!

  152. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Wtf does everyone saying overpay choose to ignore the fact that #33 was supposedly ear marked for Talbot and when Chia got him for less, it was a wash?

    Even if Chia did overpay for GR and that’s a big IF, it didn’t cost him Talbot. He got the two players he targeted for a fair total outlay.

    Why would (arguably) getting a deal on one thing mean you didn’t (arguably) overpay on the other?

  153. AsiaOil says:

    Well LT – your own review of Cullen’s work entirely refutes the “overpay” statement.

    Chai acquired what has historically turned out to be a top 4 dman on average (and 3 years of extra data has only strengthened that prediction) for what on average has turned out to be a fringe NHLer and career minor league player. I know you love the prospects – and strong draft or not – this is the reality of the long term averages (Steve Bernier at #16 in 2003 says hi).

    Most of this is sour grapes for not getting the Hamilton deal from Sweeney and it’s getting pretty boring to tell the truth. Especially since getting Hamilton would have required the key asset we used to acquire Talbot. Which deal do you prefer: Reinhart & Talbot or Hamilton and career minor leaguer? That’s the deal if you consider we would have had to use both 2nd rounders for Hamilton and the value of the 3rd rounder we would have kept instead of trading for Talbot. I’d probably still pick Hamilton today – but that could easily be very different next year at this time if Talbot and Reinhart have good seasons. Of course that choice was never actually available.

    Draft picks are like buying new cars – in most cases you suffer depreciation immediately after purchase – same asset but suddenly it’s worth much less after the transaction. So you can easily make the case that Chia sold Barzal at maximum value right at the draft unless he seriously out-performs his number – and it is demonstrably clear that most picks do not do this as the average performance data makes clear. Add the fact that Chia almost certainly did not trust anything the previous mgmt team scouts had to say – many were fired – and it’s not surprising he dealt off the extra 1st and both 2nd rounders.

    Chia played the averages on this deal and a lot of the Barzal fans are hitting on 16 – both literally and figuratively. Barzal may turn out great – but it’s more likely he doesn’t amount to anything important and Reinhart becomes a solid top 4 dman.

  154. Marc says:

    Lowetide: Sure it does. I’m already thrilled that Barzal falls—even if he never plays for my team that’s a great trade asset—and then I get ANOTHER terrific center in round two. That’s A LOT of talent, it just is.

    True. But you’re taking on a significant amount of risk by doing so.

    The value of those players as trade assets may well fall as they develop. And the price of a NHL ready D still on his ELC, who projects to be top 4 with top pairing upside, could rise, so those assets alone aren’t enough to get you one.

    If Barzal has Draisatl-like dominant season in the WHL, and looks likely to be a sure top line centre in the NHL then he might fetch a player like Reinhart (or even better) on his own. The Oilers would get their young D and have a good young centre in the system as well.

    But if Barzal has merely a good draft +1 season, and seems more likely to be a second line winger than a first line centre, then it’s highly unlikely that he’d fetch a NHL ready top 4 D still on his ELC. Or if GM’s reassess the value of such young D and raise their ask, then Chia could find himself in a position where only Bazal plus his 2016 1st get him the young D he needs.

    It’s dangerous to assume that a prospect will always have the value he has just before he’s drafted. Or that young players who are available for picks on the draft floor will still be available for a similar price later in the year.

  155. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    pocession charge: I’m sorry for your loss; I’m sure many of us have been affected by drinking and driving.That said, ROR hit a Tim Hortons at 4am in a rural location.Nobody was injured and I’m sure he feels pretty bad about his behavior.Jail time would be unnecessarily harsh in this instance. We should be very careful about passing judgement — a lot of us have made stupid choices while drinking and just got lucky that nothing bad happened.

    “Moral Luck, come on down! You’re the next contestant on ‘Meh, or Let’s Roast Him Alive!'”

  156. Магия 10 says:

    thehop:
    DSF post more crap.

    *throws lowetide jersey on the ice*

    Not the Barzal 3rd jersey again.

  157. book¡je says:

    This drunk driving debate has come up previously here. I look forward to the day when people say “drunk driving is always totally inexcusable and anybody stupid enough to drive drunk deserves harsh punishment”, not “hey, we all do stupid things sometimes”. Actually, we all don’t do stupid things that are the equivalent of drunk driving sometimes. The vast majority of readers here would never drink and drive (may have done so 30 years ago when there was less information about it). It’s about 15% of people who do so. A small minority who somehow think it’s within the range of normal for some reason.

    Wow, last night I got drunk and randomly fired my rifle
    off around town. I guess we all make stupid mistakes at times.

    See, it’s just pure idiocy. Stop defending it.

  158. Marc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: “Moral Luck, come on down! You’re the next contestant on ‘Meh, or Let’s Roast Him Alive!’”

    “Thank you! Thank you! You guys are great!

    I’ve actually just come from a suspension hearing for a dangerous hit from behind, so I’m feeling very well prepared.”

  159. T0ML says:

    Just curious … up until last summer Snow was considered a GM who was crazy and ultimately not very “Jackely” …. he has one good summer (Not in his track record, Im just getting heavy into following league wide so forgive me if this is not correct) …. and now its assumed we were fleeced? Where as Chai has a better trade record / D-man acquisition record? Am I far off the mark that in essence we traded with a GM known to make crazy moves and move out players sooner than he should, and we gave a future player who has shown to be more injury prone?

  160. Ryan says:

    AsiaOil:
    Well LT – your own review of Cullen’s work entirely refutes the “overpay” statement.

    Chai acquired what has historically turned out to be a top 4 dman on average (and 3 years of extra data has only strengthened that prediction)

    I’ve been fighting like hell to stop myself from commenting on the Reinhart trade here. He’s now an Oiler, so I’m cheering like hell for him…. But let’s try to avoid hyperbole in both directions here.

    Some could reasonably argue that he’s flagged since his draft year… I don’t see much to reasonably suggest that his past three years strengthen anything.

    Read the live thread over at Lighthouse hockey… There were exactly zero fans upset over the Reinhart trade. Most thought he was flagging and if they waited a year to trade him his trade value would plummet if he failed to make the NHL roster and struggled again in the AHL.

    Again, I’m cheering for him but based on where several others from his draft class are, I don’t think we can make bold proclamations about him being a sure thing.

  161. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t understand how Barzal probably being a good player in the future excludes Reinhart from being a good player. Someone needs to be able to get the puck to these forwards.

  162. magisterrex says:

    AsiaOil: Well LT – your own review of Cullen’s work entirely refutes the “overpay” statement.

    An A+ observation, and exactly what I thought when I read the article, and then read the conclusion. They simply did not match.

    Or, too put it in another way, “I don’t think “conclusion” means what you think it means.”

  163. Ryan says:

    T0ML:
    Just curious … up until last summer Snow was considered a GM who was crazy and ultimately not very “Jackely” …. he has one good summer (Not in his track record, Im just getting heavy into following league wide so forgive me if this is not correct) …. and now its assumed we were fleeced? Where as Chai has a better trade record / D-man acquisition record?Am I far off the mark that in essence we traded with a GM known to make crazy moves and move out players sooner than he should, and we gave a future player who has shown to be more injury prone?

    Part of the issue is that there was no market for Reinhart outside of the Oilers.

    We’ve heard zero stories after the trade of other teams bidding for him.

  164. Numenius says:

    wheatnoil: The question is: was Reinhart an overpay?

    That’s a good question, but I’d say the more important question is: Was Chiarelli right to make the trade?

    Whether it was an overpay is relevant to answering it, but it doesn’t solve it decisively.

    LT thought it was the right move, for example, even though it was an overpay.

    On another note, to me the fact that Snow wouldn’t have traded him unless Barzal was available is a good sign for the Oilers. It shows Snow did really value Reinhart and that he was very reluctant to give him up.

    No doubt if they didn’t have the D depth they did, they would never have done the trade, just as in our case, we would never have done the trade if we had nice D depth.

  165. Lowetide says:

    Numenius: That’s a good question, but I’d say the more important question is: Was Chiarelli right to make the trade?

    Whether it was an overpay is relevant to answering it, but it doesn’t solve it decisively.

    LT thought it was the right move, for example, even though it was an overpay.

    Overpays happen all the time and can be absolutely justified. The thing about Reinhart that divides people is that he feeds in to the Oilers-Oil King verbal and that riles everyone up because old boys network. My feeling is:

    1. Bob Green is a really bright guy
    2. Stu MacGregor is a good judge of talent and reports had him wanting Reinhart No. 1 in 2012
    3. Reinhart’s AHL numbers suggest he was involved in more offense than some people thought he’d be and his defensive struggles were predictable (MANY players say the AHL is a harder league because partner/reaction are less predictable)
    4. The Oilers didn’t have a clear BPA at No. 16 (Barzal on the Oilers is a RW on the 2line and that’s only if Nail doesn’t progress)

    I’m fine with the trade. I don’t think it would be honest to suppress the portion of the deal that I believe is an overpay.

  166. pocession charge says:

    book¡je:
    This drunk driving debate has come up previously here. I look forward to the day when people say “drunk driving is always totally inexcusable and anybody stupid enough to drive drunk deserves harsh punishment”, not “hey, we all do stupid things sometimes”.Actually, we all don’t do stupid things that are the equivalent of drunk driving sometimes.The vast majority of readers here would never drink and drive (may have done so 30 years ago when there was less information about it).It’s about 15% of people who do so.A small minority who somehow think it’s within the range of normal for some reason.

    Wow, last night I got drunk and randomly fired my rifle
    off around town. I guess we all make stupid mistakes at times.

    See, it’s just pure idiocy.Stop defending it.

    Nobody is defending drunk driving Bookjie. I am arguing that he shouldn’t go to jail for what he did — the punishment does not fit the crime. If he was a serial drunk driver then I would support a jail sentence, but as far as we know this is his first offense. I’m not sure how you made that connection based on what I said. And your analogy is poor because you are comparing two different crimes, each of which warrants a different punishment.

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