OILERS RE-SIGN SCHULTZ

The Edmonton Oilers and RFA Justin Schultz agreed on a one-year, $3.9 million deal this morning, in what I believe was the best case scenario for a team that could have been exposed badly with this player. Schultz’ substantial offensive talents (he’s quality in the offensive zone) married to mondo minutes and solid if unspectacular boxcars might have been an arbitration nightmare. The money is too much by plenty, but Peter Chiarelli can’t change the past—only the future. The best part of the deal for Edmonton? One year. The option for a second year must have fed the team’s desire to get this thing done.

For the player, Edmonton remains a fantastic opportunity. Schultz has a new coach who thrives on high octane offensive types and should be able to help 19 in areas of weakness. The performance last season had to have been organization-aided and the ‘fresh air’ feel of the current regime may allow Schultz to flourish.

SCHULTZ BOXCARSjustin schultz boscars three year trend

At even strength, Schultz’s offense has been consistent (and those are good numbers). His power-play performance was impressive in year one, but the last two seasons have seen a southbound trend. McLellan is magic on the power play and Schultz can contribute with his talents if given the opportunity (and I think that will happen).

This could be a good day all around. If Schultz improves his coverage and passing, while the organization also puts him in a position to succeed (veteran partner, etc), everyone could be much happier next summer and the real money can pour in. That said, a one-year deal was the play here and good for management and player for recognizing it. A pleasing day.

 50-MAN LIST

  1. G Cam Talbot (No. 1, bona fide with an explanation)
  2. G Ben Scrivens (He’ll need to prove himself in a big way)
  3. G Anders Nilsson (New G, adds to competition, pushes Scrivens)
  4. G Laurent Brossoit (AHL starter could be future No. 1)
  5. G Eetu Laurikainen (A great damn bet, we don’t know much yet)
  6. D Andrej Sekera (A cornerstone addition to a defense that must improve)
  7. D Mark Fayne (A big part of next year’s team, he’ll face tough opposition)
  8. D Oscar Klefbom (The first electric blue through the door in simply ages)
  9. D Justin Schultz (He has a chance to be part of an incredible future)
  10. D Nikita Nikitin (I’m not sure he makes through THIS summer)
  11. D Eric Gryba (Third pairing addition, he can play defense)
  12. D Andrew Ference (Erosion looks nearly complete)
  13. D Brandon Davidson (Waiver eligible, may not be room)
  14. D Griffin Reinhart (It’s not a matter of if, only when)
  15. D Darnell Nurse (Say hello to the future)
  16. D Brad Hunt (Last chance Texaco? Or a new beginning?)
  17. D David Musil (Reinhart’s addition may make Musil’s presence moot)
  18. D Jordan Oesterle (He could flourish under McLellan)
  19. D Dillon Simpson (Still working, suspect he gets full entry-level deal)
  20. D Martin Gernat (In the worst spot of any roster player. Prospect orphan)
  21. D Ben Betker (He has a nice combination of skills)
  22. D Joey Laleggia (His skills are somewhat unique, could blossom in Bakersfield)
  23. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Fantastic player, love the Nuge)
  24. C Connor McDavid (Franchise)
  25. C Anton Lander (Very important season in his career)
  26. C Mark Letestu (Strong option at C, he can play other positions)
  27. C Leon Draisaitl (Willing to play the wing, and that could get him to the NHL in the fall)
  28. C Bogdan Yakimov (Can’t wait for McLellan and Chiarelli to see the earth mover)
  29. C Jujhar Khaira (Big man needs to show offense or could be gone)
  30. C Kyle Platzer (New pro has two-way skills)
  31. L Taylor Hall (Impact player could go super nova)
  32. L Benoit Pouliot (Vital to the club’s overall look. Big, strong, good)
  33. L Lauri Korpikoski (Fast winger with experience, two-way skills. Mentor)
  34. L Matt Hendricks (May see minutes on skill line)
  35. L Luke Gazdic (McLellan uses this player type)
  36. L Ryan Hamilton (Chiarelli may prefer his own AHL mentor)
  37. L Anton Slepyshev (Big opportunity, coach has no memory of any of the bubbling under)
  38. L Mitch Moroz (McLellan will be impressed with size/speed combination)
  39. L Kale Kessy (If that speed spike last year was no fluke, he’ll be a factor)
  40. R Jordan Eberle (They need two more like him)
  41. R Nail Yakupov  (He’s still here! Now, where to put him?)
  42. R Teddy Purcell (In this case, LACK of speed kills)
  43. R Rob Klinkhammer (Effective 4R, doesn’t bring enough offense though)
  44. R Tyler Pitlick (Newly qualified, needs to stay healthy)
  45. R Iiro Pakarinen (He should be working out like a bandit, with TC impact his goal)
  46. R Andrew Miller (He’s in a nice spot on this roster: Inexpensive and skilled)
  47. R Greg Chase (Guaranteed to get noticed early and often. Has the potential to surprise)

Are the underlined players the heart of the order (eventually)? I have my doubts about some but it’s not for me to say. Justin Schultz has his contract and a ticket on a helluva ride, but there’s some miles to go. I’ll say this: He has enough natural talent to fly with these eagles and the rest is up to him.

CURRENT ROSTER AND CAP

oilers updated cap and roster july 15

I still don’t think Peter Chiarelli is done. Buyout window may pass with nothing but we’ll know soon enough either way. Beyond that? Will the ‘Hawks deal Seabrook? Will the Oilers find a way to acquire a veteran early or in-season? What about the period just before cap compliance? We’re not far from balance, folks. Balance as we haven’t seen it since 2006 spring. We wait.

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108 Responses to "OILERS RE-SIGN SCHULTZ"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Damnit LT, you aren’t supposed to post things at noon. Left me hanging talking about this in the last thread.

    I’m posting it again here. This is my internet message board version of a mild adult temper tantrum. Everyone be cool and pretend it isn’t happening, I’m probably just hungry.

    book¡je,

    The thing is, if I’m Schultz, I totally would have gone to arbitration once the Oilers elected for it.
    Arbitration isn’t a science. There is a reasonable chance that an Arbitrator would have looked at Schultz numbers (best offensive production on team at his position), and his usage (highest minutes) and decided to give him $4.5/season (or something to that effect). It wasn’t a sure thing, but I think there was more than an outside chance of it.
    The Oilers used the arbitration to open the window, but then they needed to give the guy a raise to make him sign something before actually getting to arbitration. For that reason, this deal makes sense.
    It sucks, but it makes sense.

  2. LMHF#1 says:

    Think there was urgency with Oduya signing? That would seem to indicate another move is coming as the UFA Dominos fall.

  3. misfit says:

    I expected (and hoped for) a 1 year deal. A little high on price, only because of what it means for his next contract, though I suspect a lot of whether or not he gets another one with the Oilers will depend on his season. Here’s to him putting together the kind of season that will see him getting a nice long-term deal next year.

  4. book¡je says:

    I think the entire reason for the club elected arbitration was the buyout period it brought. I don’t think it had anything to do with Shultz.

    My bet is on Ference heading out of town – not for cap management reasons, but just because nobody wants an former captain with a strong personality sitting in the pressbox for 80% of the season.

  5. matt says:

    When does the buyout window close? Did there club need two arbitrations to open it (as I read elsewhere, I think)?

  6. Centre of attention says:

    I agree completely with this article. The Oilers are close to being finished, and tantalizingly close to playing meaningful games this spring.

    Schultz can be a part of the short-term future. I have seen him good. He’s also been bad enough that I’m not holding my breath thinking he’s part of the long-term future though.

  7. Centre of attention says:

    matt:
    When does the buyout window close?

    48 hours

  8. Derek says:

    I’m more interested in what they do with the 48 hour buyout window than the Schultz signing. I would love to see him improve his game, but at this point what he gives up is more than what he creates and he’s a poor option for the team in regards to cap space efficiency.

    If he had 3 years of NHL experience instead of 1 year 3 times it would be much easier to stomach a “veteran” blue liner sticking around to shelter the newly initiated. Instead he has to be sheltered as well. Thanks Steve, Craig, Dallas and Kevin!

  9. Pouzar says:

    matt: When does the buyout window close?

    48 hrs

  10. Derek says:

    I’m really hoping this leads to a buyout and/or trade and the signing of Ehrhoff at reasonable dollars for 2 years. That would be manna from MFing heaven, assuming Christians injury problems are behind him.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Buyout window opens Saturday I believe and it open for 48 hours.

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I assume this means that they have something lined up with a UFA or trade and simply need to execute a buyout. Doubt they buy someone out and then see what’s out there.

    Hoping it’s Erhoff on a 1 or 2 year deal for roughly Oduya money.

  13. Profit says:

    Seems to me Chiarelli got the best possible deal done. He’s cleaning up a mess from the previous managers, but seems to have a plan in place.

    If the buyout window comes and goes with nothing, I will wonder what could have been. Feels like Oduya thing could have forced a hand but it could just be a coincidence too.

    I doubt they buyout Ference, he’s been really active with Oilers things recently (which you can see on website/twitter) and was introduced to McDiety when he was in Edmonton. You don’t have him do all that stuff and then buy him out. I’m 75% that it’s NN and 25% nothing happens.

  14. Pouzar says:

    Stauffer saying on his show he doesn’t foresee a buyout of Ference…gave it the ol “Lets establish that right now.” line.

  15. OilLeak says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Damnit LT, you aren’t supposed to post things at noon.Left me hanging talking about this in the last thread.

    I’m posting it again here.This is my internet message board version of a mild adult temper tantrum.Everyone be cool and pretend it isn’t happening, I’m probably just hungry.

    book¡je,

    The thing is, if I’m Schultz, I totally would have gone to arbitration once the Oilers elected for it.
    Arbitration isn’t a science. There is a reasonable chance that an Arbitrator would have looked at Schultz numbers (best offensive production on team at his position), and his usage (highest minutes) and decided to give him $4.5/season (or something to that effect). It wasn’t a sure thing, but I think there was more than an outside chance of it.
    The Oilers used the arbitration to open the window, but then they needed to give the guy a raise to make him sign something before actually getting to arbitration. For that reason, this deal makes sense.
    It sucks, but it makes sense.

    The risk for Schultz is if the award is too high the Oilers can buy him out at a very reasonable rate(1/3rd). With most teams up against the cap and coming off a poor season it would be very likely Schultz would make less money.

  16. Магия 10 says:

    Walking from an award died when Schutlz did not file.

    OS & trading rights died when the club filed.

    The 250K over QO killed Schultz asking for 2 years in arb.

    So the next go around will be RFA not UFA.

  17. kb says:

    why hasn’t there been talk about buying ference out NEXT year. Assuming his decline continues, doesn’t this keep his cap hit out of mcdavid’s monster payday?

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    Pouzar:
    Stauffer saying on his show he doesn’t foresee a buyout of Ference…gave it the ol “Lets establish that right now.” line.

    So it’s a lock then?

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide:
    Buyout window opens Saturday I believe and it open for 48 hours.

    I’m confused again…why the delay before the window begins?

  20. Doug McLachlan says:

    Centre of attention: 48 hours

    Posted this on the last thread, still relevant I think.

    I believe the wording of the CBA is that the 48 hour 2nd buyout window begins three days after the Schultz arbitration is finalized (in this case by an agreement). So we are still not getting any buyouts (if we are) until the weekend.

    Oilers are, as per General Fanager, sitting with 14 F (not including Draisaitl), 8 D (not including Nurse) and 3 G with $3.65M in cap space. Essentially CMD’s bonus $ and a little cushion.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/edmonton-oilers

    If Chiarelli were to do any buyouts the options are:

    Ference:

    2015-16 ($2,583,334)
    2016-17 ($2,083,334)
    2017-18 +$1,166,666
    2018-19 +$1,166,666

    Nikitin:

    2015-16 ($3,000,000)
    2016-17 +$1,500,000

    Purcell:
    2015-16 ($3,000,000)
    2016-17 +$1,500,000

    Will be interesting to see what, if any, combination of moves he has yet to do.

    Increasingly think that a buyout of Ference is a possibility. Nikitin and Purcell disappear entirely next year. If sufficiently pumped (and if salary is retained) both Nikitin and Purcell could be traded at the deadline with Nurse and Draisaitl coming up from the AHL to fill the roster spots. Wow us all Chia.

  21. LMHF#1 says:

    kb:
    why hasn’t there been talk about buying ference out NEXT year. Assuming his decline continues, doesn’t this keep his cap hit out of mcdavid’s monster payday?

    Mostly because people have been focused on getting him out this year. He’s such a boat anchor for a number of reasons.

  22. Derek says:

    Profit:
    Seems to me Chiarelli got the best possible deal done. He’s cleaning up a mess from the previous managers, but seems to have a plan in place.

    If the buyout window comes and goes with nothing, I will wonder what could have been. Feels like Oduya thing could have forced a hand but it could just be a coincidence too.

    I doubt they buyout Ference, he’s been really active with Oilers things recently (which you can see on website/twitter) and was introduced to McDiety when he was in Edmonton. You don’t have him do all that stuff and then buy him out. I’m 75% that it’s NN and 25% nothing happens.

    This could just as easily be Ference feeling the heat, getting his name out there in the community to try and improve his value in some manner.

    I don’t really understand the issue of buying out or trading Ference just because he has a “C” sewn on his jersey or he’s great in the community. He doesn’t help a team win hockey games and that’s what teams are built to do.

    In a city where hockey is still a religion after a decade of ineptitude at top dollar prices, no one is going to give a damn about going on bike rides with Andrew Ference if his departure means improving the team.

    Edit to add: Is this the Oilers website and twitter or just Andrews own? A quick glance at the website shows nothing about Ference.

  23. Doug McLachlan says:

    LMHF#1,

    The delay is part of the CBA.

    Understand that the thinking is you get an arbitrator’s ruling and that $ amount changes your team’s payroll structure.

    Gives a GM a couple of days to explore trade options in advance of the “nuclear” option of cutting down the old-growth forests.

  24. LMHF#1 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LMHF#1,

    The delay is part of the CBA.

    Understand that the thinking is you get an arbitrator’s ruling and that $ amount changes your team’s payroll structure.

    Gives a GM a couple of days to explore trade options in advance of the “nuclear” option of cutting down the old-growth forests.

    Thank you sir!

  25. Rebilled says:

    I think Murphy and Nolte might be in play for The Next 48 Hours.

  26. Yeti says:

    Profit: was introduced to McDiety

    Is that an Eakins reference?

  27. Numenius says:

    Schultz’s hearing was going to be July 24. Settled July 15 with lots of time to spare.

    That means the dominoes are in place for the next move or they’ve completely fallen apart.

    Is the move signing Ehrhoff? The Stars were probably looking at Ehrhoff, but now that they’ve signed Oduya, maybe that took them out of the race and opened things up for the Oil. I wouldn’t do more than 1 year in order to keep options open for the UFA crop next season.

    2M in available cap space (assuming McDavid hits his bonuses, as one must) means they can’t sign Ehrhoff without buying someone out or trading. It’s not Ference (says Stauffer), so it must be Nikitin. Can’t see it being Purcell, since they need to keep a skilled vet F for one more year to shelter Yak.

    We’ll know soon.

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    Numenius:

    2M in available cap space means they can’t sign Ehrhoff without buying someone out or trading. It’s not Ference, so it must be Nikitin. Can’t see it being Purcell, since they need to keep a skilled vet F for one more year to shelter Yak.

    You can go over the cap for the time being.

  29. Profit says:

    Derek,

    I don’t disagree with your rationale at all. Just stating my opinion that he seems unlikely to get bought out. I’d be happy to be wrong however, I also think the added cap hit in 17/18 and 18/19 seems to go against the idea of keeping cap room free for “contending” years.

    Also, we shouldn’t underestimate the C$ impact on the cap. C$ is getting hammered today on the BoC cut, and will get hammered yet again if the Fed increases. I could see a situation where the cap doesn’t go up for the next year or two. Buying out Ference now won’t help if that happens.

    And yeah, it could have been Ference’s twitter and the Oilers one. There was a bunch of posts of him and Iveson that I remember. You’re right, I don’t see him on the website now.

  30. Numenius says:

    LMHF#1: You can go over the cap for the time being.

    Doesn’t help. You can only buy out now in the upcoming 48 hour window. That’s what’s relevant.

    Unless you figure you can trade Nikitin with salary retained before TC starts.

  31. spoiler says:

    matt: When does the buyout window close?

    Eddie Murphy–Nick Nolte (huge comeback).

    Edit: Dammit Rebuild!

  32. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT,

    Just reading your post on ON now.

    That google translate of Svoboda’s twitter take on CMD – pure comedy gold.

    “If he catches by man to exercise a chance, you can arrive, taps into the concrete.” – Love it!

    My wife is dual citizen Finn (yes, life is good) but she was born and raised in Canada so her Finnish is only slightly better than mine. We were trying to google translate a Finnish tax document one night. The line “pay under the ditch” has now become a staple for all financial conversations.

    Not sure this is as good but will try and incorporate more “taps into the concrete” into my definitive posts of what’s what in Oiler goaltending from now on.

  33. LMHF#1 says:

    Numenius: Doesn’t help. You can only buy out now in the upcoming 48 hour window. That’s what’s relevant.

    Unless you figure you can trade Nikitin with salary retained before TC starts.

    But you could sign a player before you buy out is what I’m getting at.

    Did I read your post incorrectly?

  34. spoiler says:

    LMHF#1:
    Think there was urgency with Oduya signing? That would seem to indicate another move is coming as the UFA Dominos fall.

    That ran through my mind too. A lot of the past 13 days has seemed to be waiting for a domino to fall.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT,

    Just reading your post on ON now.

    That google translate of Svoboda’s twitter take on CMD – pure comedy gold.

    “If he catches by man to exercise a chance, you can arrive, taps into the concrete.” – Love it!

    My wife is dual citizen Finn (yes, life is good) but she was born and raised in Canada so her Finnish is only slightly better than mine.We were trying to google translate a Finnish tax document one night.The line “pay under the ditch” has now become a staple for all financial conversations.

    Not sure this is as good but will try and incorporate more “taps into the concrete” into my definitive posts of what’s what in Oiler goaltending from now on.

    HA! I was looking for something to write about Svoboda and had reached the end of my rope. FINALLY I find an interview from last week and it’s brilliant. LOVE pay under the ditch, I’m stealing it! 🙂

  36. slopitch says:

    Snow picked up Leddy and Boychuk on Oct 4th last year. Its a waiting game. Chai tried to out wait the competition last year and couldnt. It may have cost him his job.

    I suspect with the roles reversed he wont go buying too early unless he gets his price. We’ll be all giddy watching McJesus light it up in camp and seeing Ian Herbers coach his old team while Chai will be working the wires trying to improve the D.

    Fun times.

  37. Clarkenstein says:

    If my Old Man was still alive to see Schultz play he would have said “that boy is dead from the arsehole both ways!” He would have been right.

  38. Doug McLachlan says:

    LMHF#1: You can go over the cap for the time being.

    The CMD bonus $ does not necessarily have to go against this year’s cap. It could go against next years if needed (or at least a portion of it).

    Not suggesting that is ideal but is another option for Chia.

    One thing that does seem to guide him is keeping open his options.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    All those advocating more patience for Jultz may want to consider his strongest direct comparable – Danny Dekeyser. Came into the league at the same age and under the same circumstances that Schultz did and is exhibiting a fraction of the growing pains.

    Norris isn’t struggling cos he’s not had enough development tlc. He’s struggling cos he’s a one dimensional hockey player.

  40. misfit says:

    Numenius: Doesn’t help. You can only buy out now in the upcoming 48 hour window. That’s what’s relevant.

    Unless you figure you can trade Nikitin with salary retained before TC starts.

    True that you can only use the buyout now, but the point that you can go over the cap between now and the start of the season means they didn’t have to wait until after buying someone out to go after a UFA.

    That’s why I wouldn’t count on another addition taking place just because we took Schultz to arbitration and have a second buyout window. It’s also why I think Ference is the likely (or at least smartest) option for the buyout rather than Nikitin/Purcell/Scrivens because we can afford the players for one year. Not guaranteeing a roster spot to a player who isn’t among your top 8 defensemen is the key.

    But I get the feeling Ference isn’t going anywhere.

  41. Numenius says:

    LMHF#1: Did I read your post incorrectly?

    You read it just a little too literally. I didn’t mean they have to buy someone out literally *before* signing Ehrhoff, but rather *in order to make the Ehrhoff signing work*.

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    Turns out an accurate wrister and good wheels is enough to dominate in the NCAA. In the NHL? Not so much.

  43. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    All those advocating more patience for Jultz may want to consider his strongest direct comparable – Danny Dekeyser. Came into the league at the same age and under the same circumstances that Schultz did and is exhibiting a fraction of the growing pains.

    Norris isn’t struggling cos he’s not had enough development t&c. He’s struggling cos he’s a one dimensional hockey player.

    Go ahead and compare their ages and performances in their rookie years in the NHL.

    Then go ahead and compare their performance trends over the subsequent years.

    Then compare the Red Wings environment, roster, and coaching with the Oilers environment, roster, and coaching over those years.

    If you can, with a straight face, tell me there’s even a remote degree of similarity between the two, then I’ll buy your argument that its all on the player and not on the team.

  44. Richard S.S. says:

    One BIG question that has major significance on buyouts is “Has Pitlick been signed yet?” If he is, when and how did we miss it? The buyout period is unchanged. If he hasn’t signed, that might change

  45. Numenius says:

    misfit: True that you can only use the buyout now, but the point that you can go over the cap between now and the start of the season means they didn’t have to wait until after buying someone out to go after a UFA.

    You seem to be misunderstanding my claim. No doubt Chia was going after a UFA before settling with Schultz. The point was that the resolution of Oduya’s contract has likely solidified options to the point where Chia is ready to make a move.

    Now that he’s ready, he can trigger the buyout window, whether to use it or not to use it. Before, he wouldn’t have been sure whether to use it or not.

    Edit: And I wonder if it wasn’t so much that the Oil also wanted Oduya as that letting Oduya go means Chicago is keeping Seabrook for the time being. With Seabrook out of the picture, plan B (or C, D, or E) is Ehrhoff.

    misfit: It’s also why I think Ference is the likely (or at least smartest) option for the buyout

    Stauffer says Ference is not being bought out, so I’d trust that and make one’s inferences from there.

  46. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: All those advocating more patience for Jultz may want to consider his strongest direct comparable – Danny Dekeyser. Came into the league at the same age and under the same circumstances that Schultz did and is exhibiting a fraction of the growing pains.Norris isn’t struggling cos he’s not had enough development tlc. He’s struggling cos he’s a one dimensional hockey player.

    All those advocating that position may want to consider that DET was an excellent team that had one of the best coaches in history.

    Dekeyser went to war with an elite unit with a ton of veteran support and a competent chain of command; Schultz got dropped off in the jungle with a bunch of kids under command of a guy who later got fragged.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Oh no.

    Schultz on the golf course when he heard about Oilers winning lottery.

    LOL

  48. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    One BIG question that has major significance on buyouts is “Has Pitlick been signed yet?”If he is, when and how did we miss it?The buyout period is unchanged.If he hasn’t signed, that might change

    Pitlick and Davidson are unsigned but it doesn’t change much. There won’t be arbitration on either and Pitlick and Davidson are not eligible for buyout. They’ll probably accept their offers here soon, is my guess.

  49. Connor'sreal says:

    Pouzar: LOLLYGAGGER

    fixed

  50. John Chambers says:

    Let’s say Franson was willing to sign a 1-year contract at $5.5M, what would you be willing to give up in terms of assets in order to have a team like Buffalo or Toronto take NN’s contract off our hands?

    A 2nd rounder seems like a steep price, but I would think a 3rd rounder is a fair payment to upgrade NN to Franson.

    Godot won’t love it, but for one year I’d like to evaluate Franson v Schultz and decide on one as a long-term option while trading the other for … A 3rd rounder 🙂

  51. qball141 says:

    Buy-out/UFA signing doesn’t make sense. If I read that roster right we have too many defensemen, so one in/one out isn’t the answer even if there is a quality improvement. And if there was to be a buy-out, why didn’t it happen in the first window? Nothing significant has changed since then. The only thing that makes sense is a trade of at least two lower-end D men for a better one. Say Schultz and a 1/2 price Nikitin for an upgrade (just an example, not an actual trade idea) and that could happen anytime including much later in the summer.

  52. Woodguy says:

    I posted this in the last thread in a response to DeeEssEff mentioning the cap might go down next year.

    He’s right:

    Which is exactly why Chia shouldn’t settle for a “Plan B” 1RD.

    I’d keep my powder dry unless you got the player you wanted.

    Many more should shake loose next year.

    I bet the cap will go down.

    It SHOULD have gone down this year except for the escalator.

    Most Canadian teams had most of their money by October.and they exchange it then to cover their US obligations.

    It was about US$1 = C$1.11 then.

    It will probably not be far off C$1.30 this October.

    Also,

    Most estimates have Canadian teams producing 36% of NHL revenue.

    Cap is 71.4MM = 4.284B in revenue (71.4x 30 x 2)

    Actually revenues are lower than $4B, hence the huge escrow payments by the players.

    Using 36% of US$4.284B was $1.626B @ 1.11 = C1.80B

    C$1.8B @ 1.30 exchange = US$1.385B

    Assume US revenues flat, the new total would be $US4.043

    So the cap would be around$67.38.

    There’s going to be some fine deals next year.

    Imagine you’re Bowman and sign Kane and Toews with an eye on a $80MM cap by 2018 and its going to be under $70 in 2016.

  53. dustrock says:

    Copied from DeathByCheerios on the HFB Oilers:

    Schults was just on with Stauffer. Some highlights from his comments.

    – The past doesn’t matter. What I do this year will be all that matters

    – The entire new coaching staff is great as its a fresh start for me as a player

    – I have to be better. I am not playing like I have in the past and I’m not the player I know I can be

    – I took a 3 week break and then have been in the gym every day since. I feel stronger and when I step on the scale it shows.

    – I am excited for the opportunity to go into camp and show them the kind of player I know I can be

  54. vinotintazo says:

    dustrock: – The past doesn’t matter. What I do this year will be all that matters

    He didnt say the past didnt matter, Bob asked him about his performance with Dallas and Nelson, also asked if thought Coaching staff influenced in his poor performance, he said he’s the one to blame, and that the past is the past.

  55. Pouzar says:

    Connor’sreal: fixed

    I thought autocorrect was gonna take of it.

  56. RexLibris says:

    Had to pass this along:

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 30m30 minutes ago

    .@MoMoneyMoTerror A person’s opinion on Jeff Petry is my own personal Turing Test. 😀

    Round of applause for our own Mr. Woodguy, please.

  57. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Had to pass this along:

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 30m30 minutes ago

    .@MoMoneyMoTerrorA person’s opinion on Jeff Petry is my own personal Turing Test.

    Round of applause for our own Mr. Woodguy, please.

    That is excellent.

  58. LadiesloveSmid says:

    dustrock:
    Copied from DeathByCheerios on the HFB Oilers:

    Schults was just on with Stauffer. Some highlights from his comments.

    – The past doesn’t matter. What I do this year will be all that matters

    – The entire new coaching staff is great as its a fresh start for me as a player

    – I have to be better. I am not playing like I have in the past and I’m not the player I know I can be

    – I took a 3 week break and then have been in the gym every day since. I feel stronger and when I step on the scale it shows.

    – I am excited for the opportunity to go into camp and show them the kind of player I know I can be

    I’m rooting for him, but really what is a realistic best case scenario?

    This time next year he’s established himself as a good 2nd pairing D and wants ~5M longterm? How is that different than Franson right now?

  59. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: That is excellent.

    I said that while it proves sentience, unfortunately actual intelligence is still outside our grasp.

  60. John Chambers says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I’m rooting for him, but really what is a realistic best case scenario?

    This time next year he’s established himself as a good 2nd pairing D and wants ~5M longterm? How is that different than Franson right now?

    That’s why I like the idea of a 1-yr contract for Schultz, same for Franson (if that were possible), to provide some competition but mostly to decide which horse to bet on long-term.

  61. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Re: falling CD dollar

    This is likely what Chiarelli is balancing right now.

    The Niktin/Purcell contracts coming off the books may not allow for any shopping but rather retention of internal talent (Klefbom) and some small breathing room beneath the cap.

    If so, then letting them expire without carrying anything beyond this season may have a greater benefit than buying one or the other out.

    And the Ference contract, to quote Beavis and Butthead, sucks more than anything has ever sucked before.

  62. vinotintazo says:

    RexLibris: And the Ference contract, to quote Beavis and Butthead, sucks more than anything has ever sucked before.

    What I dont get is how some people see him as the 7D man, hes not going anywhere for TWO years. And hes the captn. cannot just “scratch” your captn. 😥

  63. Doug McLachlan says:

    RexLibris,

    I still like the idea of buying out Ference now. It’s a sunk cost at this point because he’s a net loss on the back-end and will NOT rebound.

    Yes the $ looks to be sagging and that will impact next year’s cap but a buy-out now still saves you $2.5M this year and $2.0M next. The “pain” is in years 3 and 4.

    Purcell and Nikitin can play (if Nikitin arrives in shape) and both could still be moved (if need be with salary retained) at any point in the season: you’ve suffered an injury but don’t want to break the bank to patch that hole? Chia can help with that. You are poised for a long cup run and need to stock up on inexpensive cannon fodder? Chia can help with that too.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Doug: As I understand it, if they buy out Ference it’s four years. For me, that’s enough to wait a year. Also, I think Nikitin is one turn left away from another back issue and backs don’t come back, no sir.

  65. GoodTimes says:

    My question would be this. Does waiting hurt our chances of getting anywhere two years from now? If we clear the anchors give the two prospects time and hope there’s actually value on the anchors this year are we going to be to far back to cash in on the value players we do have? I wish we didn’t have some players we do but realistically the playoffs are a long shot this year I see no point in not trying to scrounge some value in what we got and hope that a year developing and learning a system might make for a completely different summer next year. Here’s to nurse and Reinhardt making the D a different set of needs next year and not carrying a ton of waste cap in what’s going to be real tight real soon.

  66. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Excellent point WG and IMO a great reason to avoid a buyout. More money next year is more important than a slight upgrade this year. Some interesting deals will surely be in the works for teams to avoid losing players like Saad and Jones for pennies when the hart drops.

  67. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    The buyout takes 4 years but as the contract is already two years at $3.25M the buyout is only a cap drag in years 3 and 4.

    If the cap is expected to be tight NEXT year because of the Canadian$ and you want to free up money for THIS year through a buyout, the player to buyout is Ference even though his hit stretches longer.

  68. striatic says:

    RexLibris:
    Had to pass this along:

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 30m30 minutes ago

    .@MoMoneyMoTerrorA person’s opinion on Jeff Petry is my own personal Turing Test.

    Round of applause for our own Mr. Woodguy, please.

    http://www.cleverbot.com

    “What is your opinion of Jeff Petry?”

    Cleverbot: Everything is a fraction of One.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Lowetide,

    The buyout takes 4 years but as the contract is already two years at $3.25M the buyout is only a cap drag in years 3 and 4.

    If the cap is expected to be tight NEXT year because of the Canadian$ and you want to free up money for THIS year through a buyout, the player to buyout is Ference even though his hit stretches longer.

    Year four is CMD’s first year at insane money. I’m fine with being frugal there.

  70. Prince Rupert's Oildrop says:

    Wow, we really paid Schultz under the ditch this time, and all for a lousy timely buyout window. Oh, for taps into the concrete! What were we thinking….

  71. dustrock says:

    Taps into the concrete sounds like a euphemism for banging one’s head against the wall. how apropos.

    Pay under the ditch is incredible.

  72. Diesel says:

    Try googling the phrase “pay under the ditch” in quotations.

    WE DID IT.

  73. wheatnoil says:

    I asked Speeds this on Twitter but the character limit made my question make no sense. So I’m going to ask it on here for him or anyone else to answer where I can use many more characters and still have it probably make no sense.

    We’ve been talking about this 2nd buy-out window that filing for arbitration opens up.

    If Schultz had just signed his qualifying offer today and then the Oilers buy-out Nikitin on the weekend, it would look an awful lot like the Oilers filed for arbitration for the sole purpose of opening the buy-out window.

    I doubt that’s the intention of the CBA. As Jonathan Willis surmises here, the second buy-out window makes sense here because in this form of arbitration, the player’s salary has to stay the same or go up, so this gives the team an out to become cap compliant, since they can’t walk away. It’s probably not in there just so teams can open up an extra buy-out window later on in the summer so they can sign more free agents.

    In which case, would Schultz just accepting his qualifying offer and then the Oilers using the buy-out window be considered cap circumvention? Giving Schultz an extra $250K makes it look a little less like that and gives the Oilers plausible deniability. It’s the same reason why the Oilers couldn’t just take Pitlick to arbitration. For what reason? He’s probably just going to sign his Q-O. It would look like they did it just to open up another buy-out.

    (Or am I really thinking too hard on this? As I write it out, I suspect the simplest answer is the correct one, but I thought I’d put it out there.)

  74. dustrock says:

    wheatnoil: I asked Speeds this on Twitter but the character limit made my question make no sense. So I’m going to ask it on here for him or anyone else to answer where I can use many more characters and still have it probably make no sense.We’ve been talking about this 2nd buy-out window that filing for arbitration opens up.If Schultz had just signed his qualifying offer today and then the Oilers buy-out Nikitin on the weekend, it would look an awful lot like the Oilers filed for arbitration for the sole purpose of opening the buy-out window.I doubt that’s the intention of the CBA. As Jonathan Willis surmises here, the second buy-out window makes sense here because in this form of arbitration, the player’s salary has to stay the same or go up, so this gives the team an out to become cap compliant, since they can’t walk away. It’s probably not in there just so teams can open up an extra buy-out window later on in the summer so they can sign more free agents.In which case, would Schultz just accepting his qualifying offer and then the Oilers using the buy-out window be considered cap circumvention? Giving Schultz an extra $250K makes it look a little less like that and gives the Oilers plausible deniability. It’s the same reason why the Oilers couldn’t just take Pitlick to arbitration. For what reason? He’s probably just going to sign his Q-O. It would look like they did it just to open up another buy-out.(Or am I really thinking too hard on this? As I write it out, I suspect the simplest answer is the correct one, but I thought I’d put it out there.)

    Well, if the NHL could prove they were just doing it to circumvent the cap and get the 2nd buyout window, maybe you have an argument.

    But what if Schultz just said, “at first I wasn’t happy with the qualifying offer, but as time went on and I saw the pieces they added, and the new coaching staff, it made a lot of sense”?

    As I understand it, didn’t the Oilers electing arbitration mean that Schultz couldn’t get a 2 year deal? That’s a legit concern as well.

  75. LMHF#1 says:

    wheatnoil:

    Or am I really thinking too hard on this?

    Not Speeds but I’d say yes.

  76. stevezie says:

    John Chambers,

    Can’t go wrong with a one year. Maybe he’d prove us wrong?

    But i can’t imagine a notoriously streaky player coming off a career year wouldn’t be trying to make sure the future is written in stone.

  77. Ducey says:

    Doug McLachlan: Lowetide, The buyout takes 4 years but as the contract is already two years at $3.25M the buyout is only a cap drag in years 3 and 4. If the cap is expected to be tight NEXT year because of the Canadian$ and you want to free up money for THIS year through a buyout, the player to buyout is Ference even though his hit stretches longer.

    I am not sure I understand what you are saying.

    The cap for this year is already set. The Oilers can burn thru Ference’s second last contract year this season. There doesn’t seem to be any players that will be difference makers/ long term keepers available at this point. So unless you are really excited about Franson and see him as a keeper or want to take a chance on Ehrhoff and his broken head, keep the powder dry.

    Buying him out now makes little sense because the Oilers don’t really need the room and they are dinged for 4 years. One of those will be McDavid’s first RFA year. Given what happened with Hall, Nuge, Ebs and what is happening with many RFA’s these days, they will need the money.

    If the cap is tight next year, then the Oilers can buy out Ference’s last year and only be stuck with his buyout for next year and the year after.

  78. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey,

    Keep $1.75m of Ference salary per year for both years and move him to Anaheim for Josh Manson.

    Add another RH shot, big, defensive D makes simple plays and suspect he can look after himself. ELC- RFA next year

  79. wheatnoil says:

    LMHF#1: Not Speeds but I’d say yes.

    Yeah, you’re probably right.

  80. Ducey says:

    TheOtherJohn: Ducey, Keep $1.75m of Ference salary per year for both years and move him to Anaheim for Josh Manson. Add another RH shot, big, defensive D makes simple plays and suspect he can look after himself. ELC- RFA next year

    1) Ference has a NMC. And he wants to be in EDM.
    2) Why would ANA trade for Ference?

  81. Richard S.S. says:

    Yes, there should be a Buyout. Assuming the Cap drops next year, you can also assume the “Kicker” will also be applied so I think a guesstimate can be made if needed.

    Two year contracts that can be bought out: Andrew Ference: $3.25 M ($3.25). I can see this buyout easily.

    One year contracts that can be bought out: Teddy Purcell: $4.5 M; Nikita Nikitin: $4.5 M ($9.0). I can see one player being bought out here.

    Expiring one year contracts: Justin Schultz: $3.9 M;Rob Klinkhammer: $.75M; Eric Gryba: $1.25 M; Cam Talbot: $1.45 M; Ben Scrivens: $2.3 M and Ander Nilsson: $1.0 M. ($10.65). A decision needs to be made on Justin Schultz and one or both Goaltenders and no one else.

    Why a buyout? Just having $2.143 Million in Cap Space (Lowetide numbers) is the next best thing to being Cap tight. So unless Chiarelli can swing a Trade in the next few days, expect a buyout.

  82. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey,

    1) to avoid getting bought out and to play meaningful playoff games before you retire
    2) awfully young albeit very good young D

  83. square_wheels says:

    dustrock,

    Good verbal from Schultz ……better than nothing I guess. Hopefully he doesn’t over train then get hurt. The talent is there, the coaching will have to be precise to ensure he’s an 17-21min guy with a 50+ OZS.

  84. frjohnk says:

    Cost to buyout Nikitin

    15-16 $1.5M
    16-17 $1.5M

    Cost to bury Nikitin in the AHL
    15-16 $3.55M
    16-17 $0M

    Cost to trade Nikitin with salary retained 50%
    15-16 $2.25M + an asset ( pick)
    16-17 $0M

    Unless the idea is to bring in another top 4 D for this year, it makes no sense to buy out Nikitin. Especially with the uncertainty of next years salary cap.

    A team that is rebuilding might be willing to grab Nikitin with a pick ( 5th rounder) and then bury him if he does the Nikita again. ( Tell the team that the cost of getting a 5th rounder would be a 1.35M and magic beans are great for a rebuild! If he does not do the Nikitin then, that team has a decent 3rd pairing d man for an incredible price of 2.25M and a 1 year term. Hurry now, limited time offer!)

    If a trade does not transpire, then Id be prepared to bury Nikitin in the AHL because a) he is probably below Reinhart and Nurse on the depth chart right now and b) burying him in the AHL does not have any cap implications for next year like a buyout would.

    I don’t buyout Nikitin as I would save the buyout for Ference NEXT YEAR. Trade or bury Nikitin, it does not matter, but as far as Im concerned, he is done as an Oiler.

    Ference has a NMC, so sending him to the minors can not be done and a trade is unlikely.

    Cost of Andrew Ference Buyout Now
    15-16 $1.16M
    16-17 $1.16M
    17-18 $1.16M
    18-19 $1.16M

    Cost of Andrew Ference Buyout Next June
    16-17 $1.08M
    17-18 $1.08M

    What this does ( a buy out in June of 16, is that there is no wasted money after McDavids ELC is done. Its a clean start ( hopefully) of having no bad contracts.

    For this year run

    Sekara Fayne
    Klefbom Schultz
    Reinhart Gryba
    Ference

    What I would do is put Ference as the 7th D man but if someone goes down,Klefbom for example, Ference stays in the 7th hole and the guy coming up (Nurse) fills Klefboms spot. Of course, there would be other injuries and Ference would get some games in. Basically what Aulie got in this year.

    If Ference does not see the writing on the wall and retire, then buy him out in June 16.

  85. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk: If Ference does not see the writing on the wall and retire, then buy him out in June 16.

    I keep asking, how does the Team put his Captain on the pressbox?

    Do you think Tmac will remove the C from him?

    if so you’re paying Ference 3.75M and Nikitin 4.5M to not play.

  86. Ducey says:

    TheOtherJohn: Ducey, 1) to avoid getting bought out and to play meaningful playoff games before you retire2) awfully young albeit very good young D

    1) Good point
    2) If I am ANA’s GM, I know I will make the playoffs. I would give all the young D as much ice time as possible in the first half of the season. If I need Ference (and its unlikely as there will be other better options) then I would trade for him at the deadline.

  87. frjohnk says:

    vinotintazo: I keep asking, how does the Team put his Captain on the pressbox?

    Easily, get 6 D men better than him.

    Id put Sekara, Fayne, Klefbom, Schultz, Reinhart, Nurse, Gryba and possibly Davidson above Ference right now.

    vinotintazo: Do you think Tmac will remove the C from him?

    Yup, give it to Taylor Hall. As much as we are gushing over McDavid, Hall will be the go to guy over the next couple of years at least.

    vinotintazo: if so you’re paying Ference 3.75M and Nikitin 4.5M to not play.

    Addition by subtraction.

  88. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk,

    I agree we have 6 better D than him, but is not that simple when he has a NMC and 2 years @ 3.25M Cap hit.

    I hope hes not the Captn next year, but I doubt it. if it happens, it wont be pretty.

    Derryl Katz’s face when Chia tells him they’re paying 8.25M for 2 guys on the pressbox/minors

    http://media.giphy.com/media/HwmB7t7krGnao/giphy.gif

  89. Shake_N_Bake says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    All those advocating more patience for Jultz may want to consider his strongest direct comparable – Danny Dekeyser. Came into the league at the same age and under the same circumstances that Schultz did and is exhibiting a fraction of the growing pains.

    Norris isn’t struggling cos he’s not had enough development tlc. He’s struggling cos he’s a one dimensional hockey player.

    Finally, a voice of sanity among the chorus of “potential”.

  90. Ducey says:

    vinotintazo: frjohnk, I agree we have 6 better D than him, but is not that simple when he has a NMC and 2 years @ 3.25M Cap hit.I hope hes not the Captn next year, but I doubt it. if it happens, it wont be pretty.Derryl Katz’s face when Chia tells him they’re paying 8.25M for 2 guys on the pressbox/minorshttp://media.giphy.com/media/HwmB7t7krGnao/giphy.gif

    Its a long season. Most teams need 7- 9 defensemen a season. Players get hurt. Young players slump and need to go back to the farm.

    Its not an issue.

  91. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: All those advocating that position may want to consider that DET was an excellent team that had one of the best coaches in history.

    Dekeyser went to war with an elite unit with a ton of veteran support and a competent chain of command; Schultz got dropped off in the jungle with a bunch of kids under command of a guy who later got fragged.

    Fair to say that both Klefbom, Marincin and even Davidson in his small sample size appeared less defensively chaotic that Schultz?

    If yes, how we do account for that difference in performance amongst comparably experienced players in the same development environment?

    We’re not just talking inconsistency with Schultz. We’re talking fairly frequent ineptitude. Can’t count the number of turnovers he committed at the opposition blue.

    You could string a line of damp toilet paper across the blueline and it would be a stronger deterrent to the opposition than Justin was.

  92. Derek says:

    Woodguy:
    I posted this in the last thread in a response to DeeEssEff mentioning the cap might go down next year.

    He’s right:

    Which is exactly why Chia shouldn’t settle for a “Plan B” 1RD.


    I’d keep my powder dry unless you got the player you wanted.

    Many more should shake loose next year.

    I bet the cap will go down.

    It SHOULD have gone down this year except for the escalator.

    Most Canadian teams had most of their money by October.and they exchange it then to cover their US obligations.

    It was about US$1 = C$1.11 then.

    It will probably not be far off C$1.30 this October.

    Also,

    Most estimates have Canadian teams producing 36% of NHL revenue.

    Cap is 71.4MM = 4.284B in revenue (71.4x 30 x 2)

    Actually revenues are lower than $4B, hence the huge escrow payments by the players.

    Using 36% of US$4.284B was $1.626B @ 1.11 = C1.80B

    C$1.8B @ 1.30 exchange = US$1.385B

    Assume US revenues flat, the new total would be $US4.043

    So the cap would be around$67.38.

    There’s going to be some fine deals next year.

    Imagine you’re Bowman and sign Kane and Toews with an eye on a $80MM cap by 2018 and its going to be under $70 in 2016.

    You read something like this on the same day that Ryan Kesler was signed for 6.8 per year to play through the years of 32-38 and you really wonder what the prerequisites are to become a general manager in the NHL.

    They do have 16 million in cap space which is all well and good until you realize the defenceman that logged the most ice time for them last year is on the last year of his ELC making a hair under 900k. Vatanen and Depres also need new contracts next year making 1.2 million and 900k each. Their two young goaltenders who also need new contracts next season, presently have a combined cap hit of under 2 million.

    The Ducks are in good shape for a year, next summer is going to be all sorts of fun for them.

  93. jake70 says:

    Imagine you’re Bowman and sign Kane and Toews with an eye on a $80MM cap by 2018 and its going to be under $70 in 2016.

    I think Toews was mulling over this in his interview day after cup win (or shortly thereafter), realizing the team is going to get ripped a part a bit – well Johnny, you could probably buy that lake they named after you and still have some money left, so it’s not all bad.

    I am no expert on geopolitics affecing the cost of a barrel of oil, but the talking heads suggesting with the Iran/6 country nuclear deal, Iran will get additional access to markets for Oil, from what I understand, the price of a barrel of this Oil is linked to the candian dollar? (likely oversimplifying this). So you flood markets with Oil in the next 6-12 months, price drop –> $C drop –> salary cap drop. Cap space could be huge next summer.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris:
    Had to pass this along:

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 30m30 minutes ago

    .@MoMoneyMoTerrorA person’s opinion on Jeff Petry is my own personal Turing Test.

    Round of applause for our own Mr. Woodguy, please.

    I totally get this. In a similar vein, a person’s reaction to the Griffin Reinhart trade has become my own personal Rorschach Test.

    And to quote Matt Good, many are ‘Failing the Rorschach Test!’

  95. v4ance says:

    Someone else mentioned it but I also like Chiarelli’s strategy of keeping his options open. Another facet of his tenure is that he tends to think a few moves ahead.

    He looked at Hamilton via trade or offer sheet but after that went down, he moved to plan B Reinhart. Once that plan came together and seeing he had Reinhart, Nurse & Klef (defencemen with more apparent upside) inhouse, he chose to deal Marincin. Marty didn’t fit his stated purpose of having players who were hard on the stick but Gyrba will play that way.

    In net, he got lucky that the game of goalie musical chairs took out Buffalo and Dallas to remove other potential bidders and basically left him as the only contender asking for Talbot’s services. Besides Talbot, he probably took a look at Lack, Niemi, Lehner and Martin Jones but got the top man at a bargain price by reading the market correctly and maintaining his nerve to outwait Sather for the best possible price.

    The trade of Gordon for Korp looked odd until he signed Letestu a few days later. That trade wouldn’t have happened if he didn’t know he had a replacement #4 C ready at the cheaper price.

    His moves are reminiscent of a person solving a rubics cube. He doesn’t take the most direct path but makes a side step (or three) before achieving the actual goal. That or he’s the guy who traded a paper clip and turned it into a house.

  96. Richard S.S. says:

    I don’t expect this economic downturn to continue long term. Oil prices are better than expected (not that big), earlier than expected and might climb a wee bit more. Expecting stranger weather (EL NINO) generally uses more Oil one way or another. So the Cap will remain in the $70.0 M – $71.5 M range for the next two-three years. After than it will increase, at the time of the McDavid Increase. Only Hall, Pouliot, Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Eberle, Yakupov, Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart will remain from this year’s Team (not including rising minor league stars).

  97. blainer says:

    I really do Not get a good vibe on Ference.. he has to be the buyout. if they don’t and I expect they won’t he is gonna be a cancer in the room. Book it. They need to bite the bullet and buy him out and if they don’t they need to speak to him now while the buyout window is open and explain to him up front that they plan on sitting him in favour of the yougins. based on his reaction from that conversation you will know for sure how to proceed.

  98. gogliano says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Turns out an accurate wrister and good wheels is enough to dominate in the NCAA. In the NHL? Not so much.

    Schultz also killed it in the AHL against full grown men, many of whom were NHL talent. 48 points in 34 games. All before the NHLers got called back to the bigs.

    I’m not a fan but that AHL season doesn’t fit your narrative.

  99. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fair to say that both Klefbom, Marincin and even Davidson in his small sample size appeared less defensively chaotic that Schultz? If yes, how we do account for that difference in performance amongst comparably experienced players in the same development environment? We’re not just talking inconsistency with Schultz. We’re talking fairly frequent ineptitude. Can’t count the number of turnovers he committed at the opposition blue. You could string a line of damp toilet paper across the blueline and it would be a stronger deterrent to the opposition than Justin was.

    Maybe you should spend more time counting and less time on hyperbole.

    CF%
    Schultz 50.1%.
    Klefbom 49.9%
    MM 48.7%
    Davidson 44.7%

    Schultz -17 in 81 games
    Klefbom -21 in 60 games
    MM -4 in 40 games
    Davidson -5 in 12 games

    Not seeing a lot there in support of your hatred of Schultz.

    Somehow everyone contributed to the team -80 goal differential.

    Schultz has been thru three coaches, multiple systems and got his head kicked in for three years. That will impact a player negatively. The other guys spent time on the farm and got to build their confidence and skills in a more sheltered environment.

    Schultz as a RH never got to play with Petry or Fayne. Who has he had to help him out?

    If he can get some support, a good system, and some good coaching, he might just improve. In fact, if he adds 10 points due to an improved PP (that’s OEL, Dougie Hamilton territory) and becomes a little better defensively (its not rocket science) he will be a pretty useful player.

  100. v4ance says:

    vinotintazo,

    Don’t you remember?

    Gretz, Mess, Lowe, MacT, Corson, Weight, Smith and Horcoff are all part of the grand history of the Oilers who were traded when they were the captain!

  101. B S says:

    jake70: I am no expert on geopolitics affecing the cost of a barrel of oil, but the talking heads suggesting with the Iran/6 country nuclear deal, Iran will get additional access to markets for Oil, from what I understand, the price of a barrel of this Oil is linked to the candian dollar? (likely oversimplifying this). So you flood markets with Oil in the next 6-12 months, price drop –> $C drop –> salary cap drop. Cap space could be huge next summer.

    Not that I’m doubting that the price of oil and the $CDN will drop, but why do people keep saying Iran will flood the market with oil? To my knowledge they’ve been holding steady on production despite sanctions, and any recent increases in development of production will take years to show an effect, and with a low price of oil the benefits aren’t nearly that significant a payoff for the investment. The US isn’t buying, and Europe will only be bidding on the current production for the next couple of years.

  102. Richard S.S. says:

    Baring any trades in the next few days, this could be what might happen.

    Andrew Ference might never be good enough to play for the Oilers any more and he occupies/wastes a Roster spot and $3.25 Million in Cap Space. Buying him out gains $2.09 Million in Cap savings for 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons while costing $1.16 Million over each of the following two seasons. Considering he costs $6.5 Million over the next two years to do very little, Buying him out is a net gain and increases the available Cap Space to $4.233 Million a comfortable enough margin to have.

    Allowing Purcell and Nikitin to join the Expiring Contracts makes an extra $19.65 Million in Cap Space available. Just allowing Purcell to join the Expiring Contracts makes an extra $13.65 Million in Cap Space.

    Adding Nikita Nikitin to the buyout list is contingent in your belief he cannot play very much, any more. If you think he can be a productive Defender, you keep him. If you don`t agree, he must be bought out. That adds an extra $3.0 Million to an existing $4.233 Million, and gives Chiarelli all sorts of options going forth.

  103. Numenius says:

    RexLibris: I said that while it proves sentience, unfortunately actual intelligence is still outside our grasp.

    The Turing test is supposed to prove the existence of a mind, not just sentience (sensation).

    The comment still works, though, with that adjustment.

    There are lots of unintelligent minds out there.

    Not mine, of course. 🙂

    /pedantic

  104. oilswell says:

    wheatnoil: would Schultz just accepting his qualifying offer and then the Oilers using the buy-out window be considered cap circumvention?

    Surely not every CBA shenanigan is a cap circumvention? Wouldn’t you have to somehow hide pay from counting against the cap. I the bought out contracts somehow didn’t count then I could at least see a cause for concern. Can’t see opening permitted buyout windows as a concern.

  105. oilswell says:

    frjohnk: Ference has a NMC, so sending him to the minors can not be done and a trade is unlikely

    If Ference is sitting out as a 7th for half a season and watches callups sub for injuries, perhaps sometime around January we might find he’s willing to waive his no trade?

  106. oilswell says:

    frjohnk: What I would do is put Ference as the 7th D man but if someone goes down,Klefbom for example, Ference stays in the 7th hole and the guy coming up (Nurse) fills Klefboms spot. Of course, there would be other injuries and Ference would get some games in. Basically what Aulie got in this year.

    Didn’t quote this part but I was thinking the same.

  107. kgo says:

    Richard S.S.,

    El Nino decreased demand for oil last time, warm winter in NA required less heating of homes/businesses.

  108. kgo says:

    Iran has been stockpiling tankers full of oil for years….ready to flood the market in a few months. On top of all this China is falling off a cliff, decreasing demand further. Oil won’t hit $60 for a while at this pace.

    THE CAP WILL FALL!

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