TILTING AT COKE MACHINES

I remember watching Mitch Moroz in his draft season and thinking here was a big man with speed who could take and make a pass. It’s an important distinction, that last item, keeping the string of possession alive, ensuring all pairs of skates continue to head up the ice. The last Oilers forward who was big, physical, could play on a skill line and murder the competition in several ways? Bill Guerin. Edmonton traded him at the turn of the century.

I count Luke Gazdic (seven fights in 40 games) as an enforcer but Matt Hendricks (eight fights in 71 games) counts as an actual player. Why? Well, Hendricks played 13 minutes a game last season, Gazdic seven. That’s a major difference. For all of the Gazdic discussion in Edmonton each season, the man played less than 300 actual NHL minutes this past season.

I always say a player has to take and make a pass, but the truth is that all of the Oilers big forwards who qualify in this discussion can do it—the question is ‘at what level?’ and that’s where we see clearance. A few years ago I spoke to Sean Brown (former Oiler) about his experience in Europe after his career. He loved it, saying it allowed him to play the game he loved as a kid, to be an important part of the skill components on a team. Brown’s NHL role was as an enforcer and the ‘hockey’ portion of his NHL nights were very simple and lacked creativity.

DOES MCLELLAN USE THESE PLAYERS?

Yes. John Scott last season (seven minutes a night), Mike Brown (seven minutes a night) the year before. I think Gazdic is the right man for this role on the Oilers side but the other candidates in the system are worth considering in terms of the future.

KALE KESSY

bachman kessy ferguson 14-15

He’s 22  and improved skating last TC had people in the organization excited about him. Scored six points in 17 AHL games last fall before suffering a season ending injury. Last December I ranked him No. 31 on the prospect list and wrote this:

  • No. 31 (44) L Kale Kessy (17GP, 3-3-6 AHL). Kessy arrived in training camp this year with an extra gear and it made a significant difference. Edmonton has a line of these players now (Gazdic, Kessy, Moroz) and I don’t really have any idea which one will turn out. Craig MacTavish got plenty out of Georges Laraque and Zach Stortini in their time, I wouldn’t rule out Kessy as an option down the line. Gone for the season due to injury. Source

MITCH MOROZ

moroz ferguson 141544

Moroz as a player in junior had a lot to recommend him. He’s fast, physical, has the agitator in him and there’s also a hockey player there. In his first two full junior seasons, Moroz was on the dedicated checking line and did good work. When his chance to step up to a more offensive line came, he cashed 35 goals. His five in OKC last season came in 66 games but the young man was used sparingly.

  • Matt Henderson: Frankly, Mitch Moroz isn’t even a prospect at this point. Source

For the life of me I’ll never understand why Oilers fans are so eager to flush prospects. If we can agree that the dice have no memory, is it fair to judge each prospect as a unique player? Perhaps give them more than one pro season? Factor in injury and usage? I think it is. Let’s go back to draft day and an independent source.

  • Redline Report: Big, edgy power forward plays an in-your-face style and looks to initiate hard contact all over the ice. A feared enforcer who picked up 20 fighting majors, yet skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts. Coaches eventually rotated him into the top six to give scoring lines a boost – gives smaller, skilled linemates more room to work with his physicality. Has surprising offensive tools with a heavy snap shot.

A couple of items from OKC also offer insight:

 

  • Todd Nelson on Moroz: “First year is exploration in the American Hockey League. Maybe that’s hard for people to understand who don’t want a lot of American League games, but it’s a wake-up call for a lot of players.” Source
  • Tend The Farm: Eric Rodgers estimates TOI for Moroz through 14 games at 6:44 per night.

He was playing better late in the year so hopefully we see a spike in performance in year two. Way too early to call him a NP and I wish we could pay heed to the words of Todd Nelson above. Moroz is not a candidate for NHL employment next season—Kessy is, in my opinion—but long term I would count him as the most promising among the current group of prospects to fill that elusive role of big, strong enforcer in the John Ferguson tradition.

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138 Responses to "TILTING AT COKE MACHINES"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Someone mentioned that Moroz had mono for part of the year.

    + only playing 6 minutes a night

    + AHL is a significant jump from junoir

    = not a good start to his pro career.

    Hope he is healthy this coming year and gets plenty of playing time ( maybe ECHL)

    Then we will see what kind of player we got.

  2. supernova says:

    Lowetide

    You are saying patience with prospects but have been constantly trying to get Schultz off the Oilers.

    Why does he not get the 250 to 300 NHL Games we know it takes for D?

    ————–

    Oilers minor league system does not play their prospects enough their first year.

    It’s a major mistake

  3. Ducey says:

    Well, Moroz is working on his skating:

    https://twitter.com/mitchmoroz

  4. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    Lowetide

    You are saying patience with prospects but have been constantly trying to get Schultz off the Oilers.

    Why does he not get the 250 to 300 NHL Games we know it takes for D?

    ————–

    Oilers minor league system does not play their prospects enough their first year.

    It’s a major mistake

    1. If Schultz was being paid $1.7M a year, then giddyup.
    2. I agree. Frustrating decisions on entry-level prospects.

  5. dustrock says:

    Apparently Oduya has signed. Film at 11 am.

  6. puckwatcher says:

    I liked moroz as an oil king I don’t know why people claim he was a fourth line player his last year. I seem to recall him and samuelsson playing a fairly important role offensively for that team. He might top out as a third liner in the nhl eventually, but big third line players are important in the playoffs.

  7. Bag of Pucks says:

    Growing up, I always rooted for this player type. It was a big part of hockey in the 70’s and 80’s and remains a truly thankless job.

    Good article here about Edmonton’s legacy in this part of the game:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/edmonton-%E2%80%93-home-of-the-hockey-heavyweights/

  8. zatch says:

    I very strongly felt that the John Scott Mike Brown thing was a panic move after the Kings series. A foolish one. I don’t know that Todd Mac actually liked employing them. I sure as hell hope not.

  9. russ99 says:

    Neither Kessy or Moroz has the potential to be a Pisani, so at best we’re looking at a 4th line checker/facepuncher at best.

    McLellan used one of these types of guys sparingly on the 4th line with Brown and Scott, so I suspect Gazdic will fill that spot.

    And as failed picks/acquisitions of a previous GM, they likely are low on Chai’s list.

    Let em ferment in the AHL a couple of years and see if we can get anything out of or for them.

  10. Ducey says:

    dustrock: Apparently Oduya has signed. Film at 11 am.

    Signed where?

  11. frjohnk says:

    Ducey: Signed where?

    One guess is Dallas, they have cap room and need defensemen

  12. DBO says:

    yep twitter says Dallas. No idea on money or term

  13. Clarkenstein says:

    Your Sean Brown comment prompted me to wonder why the Oil (or any other NHL team for that matter) don’t send recently drafted kids to a top level European league (not KHL) to hone their creativity and puck handling skills. Some could also improve their skating skills over there. Why not even have a “minor league” team over there? Instead, we drop them into the AHL or ECHL and let them continue to bang their way into obscurity!! I dare say you could see an entirely new player come out of there at age 22 or 23 which still leaves tons of time for a solid NHL career.

  14. Connor'sreal says:

    zatch: I don’t know that Todd Mac actually liked employing them.

    I’m hoping that it was Wilson who wanted those types in the lineup, and that this led to the parting of ways between he and MacLellan.

  15. frjohnk says:

    DBO:
    yep twitter says Dallas. No idea on money or term

    2 year, 3.75AAV

    good signing for Dallas

  16. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide
    …I always say a player has to take and make a pass,…

    I think you must skate well (in all directions) plus take and make a pass. That has to be a basic requirement. Then you must score. Then you need to be what your position requires. Mitch Moroz seems to be doing well.

    There are 30 GM jobs in the NHL and a similar amount in each Sport. Five or six are the cream of the crop. Ten are close to being incompetent. The remainder are somewhere in between. Their Staffs (Assistant GMs don’t matter) do what they are told to do.

    There are 30 Manager jobs in the NHL and a similar amount in each Sport. Five or six are the cream of the crop. Ten are close to being incompetent. The remainder are somewhere in between. Their Staffs generally are busy people, but may not know all their players well.

    There are 30 Manager jobs in the AHL/Minor league and an extremely varied amount in each Sport. Five or six are the cream of the crop. Ten are close to being incompetent. The remainder are somewhere in between. Turnover here is as high as it is higher up. Their Staffs are busy, but may not know much about their players. Having preconceived ideas here is dangerous. I would give Moroz regular minutes on a top six shift just to see how good he might be.

    TSN reports Dallas Stars sign Oduya.

  17. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: 2 year, 3.75AAVgood signing for Dallas

    Indeed.

  18. dustrock says:

    Yeah, called Dallas yesterday or the day before. Seemed the obvious choice.

    2 years is good for Dallas.

  19. DBO says:

    Pouzar: Indeed.

    I would have liked Oduya on a 2 year. Read yesterday that Sharp was campaigning hard for Oduya to join him in Dallas.

    Watch Chicago now get Erhoff on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal so he can win a cup. Man I look forward to us getting those “win a cup” deals on vets. Not the “pay me more and for longer to come to your trainwreck” deals we have had to sign. At least this year we got someone good to sign that deal. That is a step in right direction.

  20. Kitchener says:

    Remembering yesterday’s convo about the current skill pairs up front, I’ll suggest that Moroz (and Kessy, Gazdic, etc.) should also be working like mad on these skills:

    – net-front skills (tips, positioning)
    – boards skills (puck retrieval)
    – enough quickness to at least get into defensive position

    I would be surprised if Gazdic isn’t on the opening night roster.

  21. Pouzar says:

    DBO: I would have liked Oduya on a 2 year. Read yesterday that Sharp was campaigning hard for Oduya to join him in Dallas. Watch Chicago now get Erhoff on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal so he can win a cup. Man I look forward to us getting those “win a cup” deals on vets. Not the “pay me more and for longer to come to your trainwreck” deals we have had to sign. At least this year we got someone good to sign that deal. That is a step in right direction.

    Starting to get my hate on for the Stars again.

  22. Concur says:

    The thing with Moroz is if he makes it to the NHL I wont be surprised when he scores a goal. With Gazdic it is always a surprise

  23. zatch says:

    Connor’sreal,

    It really seemed that way to me. It helps the Sharks experiement failed miserably. I have no time for goons and no interest in Gazdic on the roster at any point.

  24. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Starting to get my hate on for the Stars again.

    There is always the Jets for a second team to cheer for 🙂

  25. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: There is always the Jets for a second team to cheer for

    Ha ha…speaking of Jets….their fans really gave ol Oduya a hard time. Happy to see he stuck it to them with a Cup win.

  26. Jaxon says:

    My issue with still considering Moroz, and Khaira as having a decent chance is that they still haven’t scored at the rate necessary to make even the 4th line in the NHL. In the NHL, if you didn’t get to a point/gp in the WHL in your draft year, you usually don’t make it. Even for pluggers and grinders. For goons, it’s a bit different but the goons are slowly going the way of the dodo bird, so there are very few jobs left for those players. And even many of the goons had or approached a pt/gp in their draft year. Moroz didn’t get to a pt/gp in his draft+2 year! Not a good sign for a big senior player in the WHL on a very good team. Khaira hasn’t found that scoring touch either. Although, he’s had to learn to play in a new league every year so it will be interesting to see how he does this year, the first time he is coming back to the same league for the 2nd time. Although, they’ve moved to Bakersfield. Poor kid must be tired of moving.

    Pakarinen, Slepyshev, Platzer, Chase, Miller, Pitlick and Yakimov are all ahead of them on the prospect chart and there isn’t a lot of room on the NHL roster for them to move up. I think Yakimov could eventually swing over to left wing and eat their lunch to fill the Oilers’ big winger quota.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Oduya has been propped up by Hjarlm for a couple years now.

    Consider these numbers from the last 2 years:

    Oduya w/ Hjarlm 53%
    Oduya apart 49%

    So away from Hjarlm he’s down 4%.

    Then add this to it:

    OZS w/ Hjarlm 49.5%
    OZS w/o Hjarlm 55.8%

    So his CF% goes DOWN while his OZS go up.

    That isn’t a good sign.

    HIs two most common D-mates w/o Hjarlm

    Seabrook 46.7% w/ 46.3 OZS
    Rozival 50.6% w/ 60.85% OZS

    So playing the toughs w/ Seabrook they get pounded (relatively speaking, its the Hawks, this pair is near a -10% RelCor)

    Getting the cherry starts with Rozival produces meh results too (again, for the Hawks)

    Rosival is 56.2% away from Oduya over the last 2 years with 58% OZS.

    Nill over paying for another old player who may not have much to contribute imo.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Your Sean Brown comment prompted me to wonder why the Oil (or any other NHL team for that matter) don’t send recently drafted kids to a top level European league (not KHL) to hone their creativity and puck handling skills.Some could also improve their skating skills over there.Why not even have a “minor league” team over there? Instead, we drop them into the AHL or ECHL and let them continue to bang their way into obscurity!! I dare say you could see an entirely new player come out of there at age 22 or 23 which still leaves tons of time for a solid NHL career.

    That’s a great damn idea.

  29. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Pouzar: Ha ha…speaking of Jets….their fans really gave ol Oduya a hard time. Happy to see he stuck it to them with a Cup win.

    2 cup wins. But we get the point.

  30. Connor'sreal says:

    Woodguy: Nill over paying for another old player who may not have much to contribute imo.

    I felt a chill pass through the room just now…

  31. Jaxon says:

    Looks like 2yrs at $3.75M per for Oduya.

  32. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Is Marcus Kruger eligible for an offer sheet?
    If so, why hasn’t someone submitted an offer to him to squeeze the Hawks?

  33. Marc says:

    Lowetide: 1. If Schultz was being paid $1.7M a year, then giddyup.
    2. I agree. Frustrating decisions on entry-level prospects.

    Why is Schultz’s pay cheque relevant though? If the Oilers need an extra $2M in cap space this season they can get it without giving up on a developing player by dumping one or more of Nikitin, Ference, Purcell or Scrivens.

    You never called for Hemsky or Horcoff to be dumped from the team when they were being overpaid by $2M or more a season, and there was no chance that they would somehow develop into a player who was worth what they were getting paid.

    I’d be curious to know why you think $2M or so that Schultz will be overpaid based on last year’s performance, is worth giving up on him well before we can reasonably assess what his ceiling as a player is.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:
    My issue with still considering Moroz, and Khaira as having a decent chance is that they still haven’t scored at the rate necessary to make even the 4th line in the NHL. In the NHL, if you didn’t get to a point/gp in the WHL in your draft year, you usually don’t make it. Even for pluggers and grinders. For goons, it’s a bit different but the goons are slowly going the way of the dodo bird, so there are very few jobs left for those players. And even many of the goons had or approached a pt/gp in their draft year. Moroz didn’t get to a pt/gp in his draft+2 year! Not a good sign for a big senior player in the WHL on a very good team. Khaira hasn’t found that scoring touch either. Although, he’s had to learn to play in a new league every year so it will be interesting to see how he does this year, the first time he is coming back to the same league for the 2nd time. Although, they’ve moved to Bakersfield. Poor kid must be tired of moving.

    Pakarinen, Slepyshev, Platzer, Chase, Miller, Pitlick and Yakimov are all ahead of them on the prospect chart and there isn’t a lot of room on the NHL roster for them to move up. I think Yakimov could eventually swing over to left wing and eat their lunch to fill the Oilers’ big winger quota.

    Great points. I still think we need to see Moroz in a full season to see what he brings. One reason for that? He’s somewhat unique in the Oilers system. So even though we say all of those players are ahead of him on the depth chart, they aren’t really.

    Only Gazdic and Kessy are. that’s the Moroz depth chart.

  35. Pouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: 2 cup wins. But we get the point.

    Yes good point.

  36. Snowman says:

    Marc,

    Part of my issue with Schultz is he hasn’t seemed to improve on anything in 3 seasons. He’s not a young defender and typically college men seem to come to the NHL ready to play relatively quickly. From the blue line in he helps you on offense. Basically everywhere else he seems to hurt.

    I think we’re getting closer to seeing his ceiling as a defenseman every day. It doesn’t look very high.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Marc: Why is Schultz’s pay cheque relevant though?

    The cap makes all money relevant and you need value deals. If Schultz can deliver $4M worth of value, I will dance in the streets. Seriously. I was thrilled when Schultz got here and maybe he just got screwed up in the last three seasons. I can’t say with honesty it’s a good idea to sign him for two years at $4M and that’s what we’re looking at here.

    That’s why it’s relevant. Because it is.

  38. Ducey says:

    So Oduya turned down 3 x $5 Million from BUF for 2 x $3.75 Million from Dallas.

    BUF has become the Edmonton of the NHL.

  39. Drew says:

    Marc: Why is Schultz’s pay cheque relevant though?If the Oilers need an extra $2M in cap space this season they can get it without giving up on a developing player by dumping one or more of Nikitin, Ference, Purcell or Scrivens.

    You never called for Hemsky or Horcoff to be dumped from the team when they were being overpaid by $2M or more a season, and there was no chance that they would somehow develop into a player who was worth what they were getting paid.

    I’d be curious to know why you think $2M or so that Schultz will be overpaid based on last year’s performance, is worth giving up on him well before we can reasonably assess what his ceiling as a player is.

    Hmmmm… debatable how much these two were overpaid. One critical point is, they did deliver positive results when on the ice in major roles. Seems different than our friend Jultz?

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers skill players – too many to list.

    The main problem seems to be the bottom 6. The last many years have seen putrid bottom six performances. McLellan appears, a competent coach who unlike everyone else shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the job.

    Shouldn’t McL be able to coach the bottom six to an NHL average level? With a proportionate rise in overall team performance?

    Hope Moroz makes it.

  41. Doug McLachlan says:

    A lot of road between Mid-July and next April but the playoff picture in the West looks to be shaping up, in broad strokes, as it did last year. The Central is a beast!

    With the exception of Colorado, who may have added by subtraction with ROR, I don’t see any team that should be worse than a Wild-Card team – which is an issue because St. Louis, Chicago, Nashville, Minnesota, Winnipeg and now Dallas only have, at most, 5 playoff berths to split amongst themselves. Somebody isn’t making it. Those Central-v-Central games are just going to be a war.

    The flip side is that if the Wild-Card slots will be taken, as they were last year, by the Central Division then only three playoff spots open in the Pacific.

    I put Anaheim at the top of the Pacific (with a bullet) but from there on in, it’s a lot tougher to handicap.

    Calgary improved with Hamilton and Frolik. They will add Bennett full-time after his playoff debut and Giordano will, presumably, be fully healthy and looking to impress in a contract year. If what they did last year was real (and it may not have been) then they are the 2nd best team in the division. If they are this year’s Colorado, they may crash out. Expecting they make the post-season, hoping they crash and burn.

    Vancouver got worse, IMO, in losing Bieksa and Lack. Not a lot worse but enough to notice. Could easily fall back out of the playoff picture and nobody would be too surprised.

    Los Angeles still have to figure out the Richards and Voynov situations but I have trouble seeing them on the outside again this year – so one of Calgary or Vancouver loses their spot. Suspect it is Vancouver but with the all the off-ice stuff going on in LA I still see the Kings as a bubble team – which is bizarre.

    The Sharks are still reeling from letting the Kings up off the mat two springs ago. Never bought into Niemi so switching him out with Jones looks to be an improvement. Paul Martin is not a long term improvement (and curious to see how he handles the Western travel schedule) but for this season, that should be an upgrade. If Hertl and Nieto can find another gear before Marleau and Thronton lose another step the Sharks should challenge for a playoff spot again. Will say bubble team but probably should have more confidence in them.

    The Coyotes have studiously watched how Buffalo built their tank and should be full speed ahead towards Austin Mathews and his lotto balls. Not sure this is a team that is committed to winning any more than the Glendale City Council is committed to hockey in the desert. I think they are as sure a lock for the basement of the Pacific as Anaheim is a lock for the penthouse.

    Which leaves the Oilers. Sekera was a solid add and Talbot’s inclusion probably is enough to half our Goals Against/Goals For deficit but that would still leave us in the -40s. I can’t wait to see what McDavid can do and think his magic will cascade through the line-up like the final minutes of a Disney movie. Without one more NHL d-man I just don’t see enough to push the needle enough to challenge for a playoff spot.

    The good news is that we were so awful last year and the weaknesses so obvious that credible hockey should be easy to achieve with McLellan behind the bench. Two more tweaks Chia. Two more and the post-season becomes possible.

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey:
    So Oduya turned down 3 x $5 Million from BUF for 2 x $3.75 Million from Dallas.

    BUF has become the Edmonton of the NHL.

    Boston’s been hijacked by a pair of former tough guys who appear to be giving Kevin Lowe a run for his money lately.

    We might have a two horse race.

  43. Oil2Oilers says:

    frjohnk: 2 year, 3.75AAV

    good signing for Dallas

    If Chia can sign Ehrhoff to the same deal. I would be very pleased. Ehrhoff doesn’t need the coin and playing with Draisaitl might be a draw.

  44. slambanna says:

    Eric StephensVerified account
    ‏@icemancometh
    Kesler’s new deal is huge. Six years, $41.25 million. ($6.875M AAV).

    6.875 until he’s 37. I’ll go ahead and assume it’s front loaded.

  45. Lowetide says:

    slambanna:
    Eric StephensVerified account
    ‏@icemancometh
    Kesler’s new deal is huge. Six years, $41.25 million. ($6.875M AAV).

    6.875 until he’s 37.I’ll go ahead and assume it’s front loaded.

    Wow. Wow. wow. Wow. WOW. Holy.

  46. vinotintazo says:

    Lowetide: Wow. Wow. wow. Wow. WOW. Holy.

    so around 7M is what 2c are going to cost….

  47. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide: Wow. Wow. wow. Wow. WOW. Holy.

    Anaheim will be a dominant team for 3-4 years, especially as their young D mature.

    In 3-4 years, they, like Chicago, will probably start to dip and as McDavid’s ELC expires we should see the Oilers intersect with and then overtake the big boys of the West.

    When the Nuge is 25 and Kesler is 34 we’ll have the upper hand for a long long time.

  48. jimmers2 says:

    vinotintazo,

    Good thing that Nuge is only a third line centre…

    One would assume that the MSM types will now forget to chirp about the Oiler’s 6M club contracts.

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    – I know its stupid to say because the rules are different for salary given the status of the players involved, but its stupid that we are going to pay Shultz the same or more than Oduya,

    – Imagine this team with Petry, Sekera,Fayne,Oduya as your top 4, with Klef really trying hard to get there: then maybe you could “nurse” Nurse in as the 6th

    – Stupid last regime

  50. wheatnoil says:

    slambanna:
    Eric StephensVerified account
    ‏@icemancometh
    Kesler’s new deal is huge. Six years, $41.25 million. ($6.875M AAV).

    6.875 until he’s 37.I’ll go ahead and assume it’s front loaded.

    NMC for the first 5 years and a limited NTC in the last year too. Wow.

    Not only did they sign a 32 year old (he’ll be 32 when the new contract kicks in) to a 6 year contract, but they extended him a year early. Kesler is already showing signs of decline (as per point production anyways). There’s every chance that decline continues this year… before the contract even kicks in.

  51. Hammers says:

    I have never been a fan of Schultz but to be fair to him , his never been handled right . Nelson may have been the closest . When you overate , overpay , and give to much ice time , that is what you get. . Believe it or not, as I have been one who said trade him but all those things aren’t his fault. There probably is a player there if his handled correctly , and with the right partner not another rookie no matter who it is . Who that partner is come training camp will tell all of us a lot. Handled right he still has potential and I hope the coaching staff find it .

  52. G Money says:

    Kesler: guess the Ducks are assuming he’s going to go back to being the .7 to .9 ppg player he was in the middle Van years, and not the .6 ppg player he’s been the last four seasons.

    Oduya: I don’t get the harsh criticism. Yeah, I get that he’s not the driver on his pairing, and he’s also long in the tooth. But the *fact* is that he’s one of the two guys tasked with shutting down the best of the best on the other team, every night. He does it well enough that the team he played for for is the defending champion and the best team in the league in the last five years, hands down.

    He probably knows a thing or two about playing defense.

    Given Dallas’ high cap room and poor (but young) defense, I don’t see how that doesn’t help them significantly, at least for one season.

  53. v4ance says:

    Eric Stephens ‏@icemancometh
    Kesler’s new deal is huge. Six years, $41.25 million. ($6.875M AAV).

    Bozak Free in 2018 ‏@mlse
    Bozak Free in 2018 retweeted Money Puck
    Special Advisor to the Ducks Nonis unfurls a Mission Accomplished banner

    Kirk Luedeke ‏@kluedeke29
    Is Ryan Kesler’s future cap hit about $200k shy of $7M? Will be about 32 when the extension kicks in. That’s a lot of cabbage.

    Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
    The Penguins will be paying Phil Kessel less than the Ducks will pay Ryan Kesler.

    Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
    I’m not even joking when I say that Kessel could score twice as many points as Kesler next season.

    Bozak Free in 2018 ‏@mlse
    A VP of Common Sense should have slapped the pen out of Kesler’s hand before he could sign that albatross of a deal

    Apparently Dallas and Anaheim haven’t learned that albatross contracts to older degenerating players is bad. In a cap system, you have to pay for actual production, not for past accomplishments. I don’t see Kesler or Oduya living up to either of their deals.

    Kesler extension will be like Vinny Lecaavlier’s deal all over again.

  54. godot10 says:

    Snowman:
    Marc,

    Part of my issue with Schultz is he hasn’t seemed to improve on anything in 3 seasons. He’s not a young defender and typically college men seem to come to the NHL ready to play relatively quickly. From the blue line in he helps you on offense. Basically everywhere else he seems to hurt.

    I think we’re getting closer to seeing his ceiling as a defenseman every day. It doesn’t look very high.

    Yakupov gets a break almost universally from the blogosphere because of Eakins, but Schultz does not.

    Franson would be an cap-busting Justin Schultz (without upside potential and who can’t skate), and yet most of the blogosphere wants a worse and more expensive version of Schultz.

    I

  55. Hammers says:

    As for Kesler . Big Overpay . Mistake

  56. Hammers says:

    godot10: Yakupov gets a break almost universally from the blogosphere because of Eakins, but Schultz does not.

    Franson would be an cap-busting Justin Schultz (without upside potential and who can’t skate), and yet most of the blogosphere wants a worse and more expensive version of Schultz.

    I

    Totally Agree

  57. G Money says:

    Justin Schultz:

    2012 (rookie): 0.563 ppg, middling zone starts
    2013: 0.446 ppg, middling zone starts
    2014: 0.383 ppg, extremely favourable zone starts

    I get the hatred for Schultz – it’s what we do in Edmonton, focus on “soft” and “giveaways” and ignore anything and everything else that a player might do well.

    But I still don’t get how ANYONE can look at that development path, look at the clusterfuck that was the Oilers coaching the last three years, and NOT point at least one finger directly at the team.

    You cannot separate players, especially young players, from their context – and the context for Schultz, Yakupov, Lander, and others, was not only the most toxic in the league, its hard to imagine a more toxic brew in the NHL anywhere ever.

  58. B S says:

    Some caveats first, I’m a fan of Moroz, but I agree with most (all?) that he was taken too high, second yes he had a bunch of fights in junior, but that wasn’t his ‘role’. I think when we talk about Moroz we need to separate the player from his draft position, and we need to look at what roles he played in junior.

    Moroz played his draft and draft +1 as a shutdown forward on a line with Ewanyk. His role was to shut down the top forwards on the other team so that Lazar and Samuelsson could go to town on softer (they still typically played the best dmen) competition. By every account I read and the games I saw, he did this exceptionally well. This is not a player sent out to punch faces then sit on his ass the rest of the game. By the definition most on here seem to use, he was not an Enforcer (facepunch and sit). He was a shutdown forward, who would also fight. He demonstrated the defensive awareness, and speed and positioning to do this well (being big enough to pin almost anyone else on the ice to the boards also helped).

    In his draft +2 year Moroz was given a role as a top 6 forward working his way onto the top line and onto the powerplay. As was posted above, he had 35 goals that season, and acted as the defensive conscience on his line. His duties in that role were mainly get the puck to his linemates, forecheck, and go to the net. I think it’s worth noting that this was the season that Moroz received some training from Ryan Smyth, I assume that most of this related to screening the goalie and tipping pucks. Anyone who watched him actually do this may have noticed that Moroz has pretty good hand eye coordination and was basically immovable in front of the net.

    What Moroz has:
    -good skating, particularly North-South, hopefully he’s working on this, especially his edges and turns
    -a decent to good snap-shot
    -defensive accumen
    -screening and tipping, potential pp specialties
    -…facepunching

    What Moroz lacks:
    -tight turns at speed
    -dangle and stickhandling at game speed (I once saw Stortini do that sort of stuff in practice, but never saw in game, so just because it doesn’t happen in game, doesn’t mean they lack those skills)
    -creativity (possibly as a result of the defensive responsibilities, but he plays a very simple North-South-to-the-net game)

    Moroz may also lack a real offensive game that prevents him from playing top 6 minutes, but he has real hockey skills, and I think a couple years in Bakersfield will give him (and us) time to figure out whether he can carry those skills to the pro level.

    Apologies for the wall of text, but I’m getting tired of the “der… he’s a facepuncher, keep him off the team” that goes on when people look at the fighting majors and not the player’s other skills.

  59. Richard S.S. says:

    Snowman:
    Marc,

    Part of my issue with Schultz is he hasn’t seemed to improve on anything in 3 seasons. He’s not a young defender and typically college men seem to come to the NHL ready to play relatively quickly. From the blue line in he helps you on offense. Basically everywhere else he seems to hurt.

    I think we’re getting closer to seeing his ceiling as a defenseman every day. It doesn’t look very high.

    I tend to disagree. The job of any College Coach is to WIN. Nothing else matters. Players get minimal instruction because the assumption was they know how to play, despite the fact that some need much more. Someone like Justin Schultz. He scored fine so Defense wasn’t a problem. When he got to the Oilers the assumption was he knew how to play, despite not know much about him.

    Justin’s Schultz’s problems are many. His conditioning is poor and need a lot more work. He needs to be stronger and put on weight. He needs a better shot. He needs to pass better. He needs to skate better. And he needs to learn how to defend. The Oilers assumed he knew how to do/be this, and taught him nothing. Schultz can be very good, it’s the Oilers sole responsibility that he’s not.

  60. G Money says:

    godot10: Yakupov gets a break almost universally from the blogosphere because of Eakins, but Schultz does not.

    Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

  61. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Oduya: I don’t get the harsh criticism.Yeah, I get that he’s not the driver on his pairing, and he’s also long in the tooth.But the *fact* is that he’s one of the two guys tasked with shutting down the best of the best on the other team, every night.He does it well enough that the team he played for for is the defending champion and the best team in the league in the last five years, hands down.

    He probably knows a thing or two about playing defense.

    Given Dallas’ high cap room and poor (but young) defense, I don’t see how that doesn’t help them significantly, at least for one season.

    I think most people were concerned about price and term. Two years at less than $4M is not terrible, Stars have cap room, and they have a lot of young defenders who could use some veteran cover. It’s not a terrible deal for Dallas.

    I question whether he can play shut-down minutes without Hjal, though. That’s the risk. Don’t forget that Nikita Nikitin was once playing fantastic shut-down minutes with Fedor Tyutin just 3 years ago. Vollman called that tandem one of the best shut-down pairings in the NHL. That doesn’t mean Nikitin did well away from Tyutin, though.

  62. Lowetide says:

    G Money: Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

    AND the Oilogosphere freely admits neither player is likely to be here for the good times.

  63. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

    Also, Yakupov plays a position of relative strength at the NHL level for the Oilers. Schultz plays a position of weakness that the Oilers desperately need to improve at. Thus Yakupov can get a bye when you don’t absolutely need him to score 50+ points… Eberle’s doing that. Oilers needed Schultz to be better yesterday, so the magnifying glass is on him.

  64. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide,

    True. If his “position” is 13th forward who fights, then he may be 3rd on that depth chart. Still not much closer to making it. And I’m not sure he’s really considered a “fighter”, although he does fight.

  65. linkfromhyrule says:

    WOW Staples just suggested on Twitter the Oilers should sign Schultz to a 4.5m x 5 year deal. That would go over well.

    That Kesler contract is ugly, and will only get worse as it ages!

  66. vinotintazo says:

    jimmers2:
    vinotintazo,

    Good thing that Nuge is only a third line centre…

    One would assume that the MSM types will now forget to chirp about the Oiler’s6M club contracts.

    Bargain contracts for the most part imo.

  67. wheatnoil says:

    BREAKING: Greg Nemisz has been named an Assistant Coach of the Oshawa Generals. Details can be read HERE> http://t.co/SQzY2Uoudw— Oshawa Generals (@Oshawa_Generals) July 15, 2015

    Guess he’s not going to Bakersfield then.

  68. Ducey says:

    G Money: Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

    I am not sure that’s true. Yak has plenty of “controller disconnected” moments.

    Yak gets more slack because he will hit (often quite hard), and seems enthusiastic.

    Schultz is quite shy and actually avoids the media. No one knows a thing about him. If he was a little more open with the media and ran over a few guys a game, people would like him plenty (well not LT 🙂 )

  69. russ99 says:

    G Money: Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

    Appearances can be deceiving. I don’t doubt for a second that Schultz is trying to the best of his ability, even though it doesn’t look like that at times. Don’t confuse not being able to physically or mentally handle a game situation with lack of effort.

    Personally I loathe when players get a pass or are universally loved due to appearing like they’re trying harder than everyone else.

    If the fancystats era has taught us one thing, we should judge less on appearance and more on results.

    And considering his crazy icetime and being pushed into roles he can’t handle, the numbers on Schultz warrant a further look.

  70. Lowetide says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    WOW Staples just suggested on Twitter the Oilers should sign Schultz to a 4.5m x 5 year deal. That would go over well.

    That Kesler contract is ugly, and will only get worse as it ages!

    I would not be in favor of this deal.

  71. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Guess he’s not going to Bakersfield then.

    Please be true.

  72. Ducey says:

    wheatnoil: Guess he’s not going to Bakersfield then.

    Should have known better than to trust a Flames blogger.

  73. Dashingsilverfox says:

    v4ance: Apparently Dallas and Anaheim haven’t learned that albatross contracts to older degenerating players is bad. In a cap system, you have to pay for actual production, not for past accomplishments. I don’t see Kesler or Oduya living up to either of their deals.

    I’m not sure what “albatross contracts” you’re referring to when you mention Dallas.

    Sharp’s contract runs out in 2 seasons.

    Spezza has 4 years left.

    Oduya is on a 2 year deal.

    And their goaltending duo have 3 years remaining.

    Obviously the Stars are in “win now” mode and adding accomplished veterans to a very young core is exactly how you accomplish that.

    Using Oduya on a shutdown pairing with one of their younger D will allow Goligoski and Klingberg to kill against soft opposition.

  74. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Word this morning that the Canadian dollar has dropped to 77 cents.

    Since the Rogers TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars and 1/3 of NHL revenue is generated by Canadian teams, there’s a very good chance the salary cap will DROP next season.

    All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

  75. Doug McLachlan says:

    russ99,

    If the fancystats era has taught us one thing, we should judge less on appearance and more on results.

    Which brings me back to Franson. I’m missing the numbers that show me what a waste he, apparently, is..

    I see the possession numbers backing up the criticism of Schultz and am able to add the context of being mis-used/poorly developed by Eakins and company. What is the math argument against Franson?

  76. Connor'sreal says:

    Hammers:
    As for Kesler . Big Overpay . Mistake

    The expansion draft, whenever it may happen, is going to be fun!

    Kesler gets 5 yrs NMC, from what I gather, which doesn’t protect him from movement because of expansion.


    Darren DregerVerified account
    ‏@DarrenDreger

    $6.875 aav for Kesler. No move clause in first 5 yrs. limited no trade in final year of extension.

  77. G Money says:

    russ99,

    Just to be clear, as my earlier note about Schultz should indicate, I’m not on the anti-Schultz bandwagon to nearly the same extent as many.

    I get that he’s a deeply flawed player on the ice right now.

    But I do cut him slack for a number of different reasons, development being a huge part of it, but also excessive time on ice and the fact that the Oilers do have difficultly scoring without him. He’s an important part of the offense, for all his flaws inside his own zone.

    If he can be replaced with someone who can replace his offense and be better behind the blue line, great. But if, as so many suggest, he is utterly useless should simply be sent away for a bag of pucks, there will be some significant, negative, unintended consequences as a result.

  78. wheatnoil says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Word this morning that the Canadian dollar has dropped to 77 cents.

    Since the Rogers TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars and 1/3 of NHL revenue is generated by Canadian teams, there’s a very good chance the salary cap will DROP next season.

    All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

    Oilers in a reasonably good spot if that were to happen with $11.3M coming off the cap in Nikitin, Purcell & Scrivens with only Klefbom & a goalie to re-sign, plus Ference being a buy-out candidate if they’re tight and still having Drai, Nurse, & Reinhart all on their ELCs.

    Relative to many other teams, it’s not a bad spot to be.

  79. v4ance says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’m not sure what “albatross contracts” you’re referring to when you mention Dallas.

    Sharp’s contract runs out in 2 seasons.

    Spezza has 4 years left.

    Oduya is on a 2 year deal.

    And their goaltending duo have 3 years remaining.

    Obviously the Stars are in “win now” mode and adding accomplished veterans to a very young core is exactly how you accomplish that.

    Using Oduya on a shutdown pairing with one of their younger D will allow Goligoski and Klingberg to kill against soft opposition.

    Hey? Don’t you owe LT $100?

    You DID lose our wager on Sekera if I recall…

    BTW, their goaltending contracts are albatrosses. Remember all that noise around the draft where people were reporting that Dallas was looking to UPGRADE their goaltending if they could deal Lehtonen’s overpaid cap hit? Spezza’s contract could be an albatross in about 2 years. $7.5 million for the next four years as he ages from 32-36.

    At least Oduya should only be a one year albatross. They should be able to get one okay year out of him but $3.75 M for your future #6 defenceman is an overpay

  80. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    This is a good point.

  81. LoDog says:

    G Money: Because Yakupov appears to be working hard, and seems to care when he’s on the ice, and often Schultz does not.

    Body language?

    Hemsky looked like he didn’t give two shits but is loved by this blog.

  82. PhrankLee says:

    vinotintazo: so around 7M is what 2c are going to cost….

    Ours is already making 6!

  83. Eh Team says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Word this morning that the Canadian dollar has dropped to 77 cents.
    Since the Rogers TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars and 1/3 of NHL revenue is generated by Canadian teams, there’s a very good chance the salary cap will DROP next season.
    All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

    The Kesler deal is just all kinds of stupid. Teams need to be preparing for a stagnant salary cap not signing long term deals with diminishing assets. That’s why adding a Phaneuf type contract is just bad news. The OIlers need to add some veteran depth on short term deals and not make more long term commitments. Even taking on a still good player like Seabrook comes with all sorts of implications done the road.

  84. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Yeah, I’m not sure what to make of that parallel, to tell you the truth.

    Nikitin/Tyutin did have one terrific year as a pairing (2011), where they were the hard start/hard comp pairing and did really well (the classic “big blue bubbles”).

    But they actually were not tasked with quite the same tough situations the next year, and actually sucked quite badly anyway.

    Then the next season they were broken up as a pairing, and Tyutin and Jack Johnson became the tough zone pairing while Nikitin dropped big time – but the Tyutin pairing still wasn’t particularly good at it.

    And this last season, Tyutin continues to face some tough situations, but his results continue to be really lousy.

    Basically – the idea that Nikitin/Tyutin were great together, but after they were split up, Nikitin was lousy and Tyutin was good is not actually supported that well. They both had one terrific season together, and they’ve both been lousy since then. Nikitin way lousier, but its still a matter of degree!

    Which gets back to the whole issue of how much one defenseman can “shelter” the other when faced with the hardest starts and the toughest competition every night.

    I find that a hard narrative to accept.

    Yes, I believe that Hjalmarsson is the stronger of the two. But no way Oduya is an incompetent (or barely competent) D who was simply being carried by his partner, that just doesn’t add up.

  85. G Money says:

    LoDog: Body language?

    Hemsky looked like he didn’t give two shits but is loved by this blog.

    The use of body language as an indicator is to be mocked, unless it supports your narrative, then its OK.

    (And I totally disagree on the Hemsky issue, that whole “last off the ice narrative” is classic Spector anti-Euro bullshit. Hemsky went into deadly no fly zones night after night, never got his due from the MSM. No surprise there)

  86. Ducey says:

    wheatnoil: Oilers in a reasonably good spot if that were to happen with $11.3M coming off the cap in Nikitin, Purcell & Scrivens with only Klefbom & a goalie to re-sign, plus Ference being a buy-out candidate if they’re tight and still having Drai, Nurse, & Reinhart all on their ELCs.Relative to many other teams, it’s not a bad spot to be.

    Good points. Another reason to play out NN’s contract this year and not pursue someone like Franson.

    Next year the pickings could be pretty good.

  87. G Money says:

    PhrankLee: vinotintazo: so around 7M is what 2c are going to cost….
    Ours is already making 6!

    Wait, I thought Nuge was a 3C, and recent highly reliable information had revised him to being only the 99th best C in the league, solid fourth line territory?

  88. vinotintazo says:

    Dashingsilverfox: All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

    including Dallas 🙂

  89. wheatnoil says:

    EDM and Schultz settle one year at $3.9M— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 15, 2015

    Basically his qualifying offer.

    Edit: $225K raise to be exact. Because… Norris?

  90. kb says:

    Schultz @3.6x 4or5 ?

  91. Kitchener says:

    I LOVE the Kesler deal.

    Remember the sound when Vancouver’s window started to close a few years ago?
    Remember the sound when San Jose’s window started to close a couple years ago?
    Remember the sound when LA’s window started to close last season?
    Remember the sound when Anaheim’s window started to close a few minutes ago?

    Kesler (*spits*) is still an excellent player and Anaheim is currently a beast of a team, but this contract is going to hurt them in a few years, right when the Oilers should be putting everything together.

  92. Doug McLachlan says:

    wheatnoil: Basically his qualifying offer.

    Under $4M. Good.

    One year, probably good too.

    Can’t remember, is he UFA or RFA next year?

  93. slambanna says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 4m4 minutes ago
    EDM and Schultz settle one year at $3.9M

    Edit: Didn’t see previous post. One year has to be the best possible outcome.

  94. Ducey says:

    wheatnoil: Basically his qualifying offer.

    OMG, a $200K raise! What were the Oilers thinking? Idiots!

    Actually, I think its fine. Just wanted to get a headstart on the internet.
    ___________________

    So three days from now there will be a 48 hr buyout period. Have I remembered that correctly?

  95. dustrock says:

    wheatnoil: Basically his qualifying offer.Edit: $225K raise to be exact. Because… Norris?

    yeah, at qualifying offer level, that’s fine. Hard to argue with. It’s almost like they waited until the Kesler contract was released on purpose! 😉

  96. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    I’m really quite pumped about RNH contract given the Kessler contract.

    We are gonna thank our lucky stars that we have Hall Eberle and RNH for 18M.

    That’s going to represent terrific value.

  97. G Money says:

    I like that the Schultz deal is a one year “show me” deal, and starts with a 3.

    Not sure why a raise was justified. Because Norris, I guess.

  98. LMHF#1 says:

    Buyout today then?

  99. Kitchener says:

    slambanna:
    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC4m4 minutes ago
    EDM and Schultz settle one year at $3.9M

    Good news. That’s the smart move for both sides. Wait a year and see how everything settles out (new teammates, coaching, goalies, etc.)

  100. Woogie63 says:

    Committed stick checkers, Hopkin, Eberle, Hall, Yakupov, Purcell, Lander, Shultz

    Committed hard to paly against big bodies to play against, Hendricks, Kilinkhammer

    We need a few more hard to play against big bodies AND our historical stick checkers to finish more check.

    Nurse, Reinhart, Pakarinen, Pitlick can significantly change the make of the team with out scoring a ton of points

  101. G Money says:

    PhrankLee,

    Yup. I’ve heard that even some the folks who were most critical of those deals back then have publicly recanted, and admitted in light of recent deals that they may actually be pretty good.

  102. russ99 says:

    Good price, glad he’s signed.

    Writing’s on wall still. Schultz has to show improvement or this is his last training camp as an Oiler.

    Next 48 hours (buyout window) should be real interesting. Hope we can dump Ference or Nikitin and bring in Franson or Ehrhoff.

  103. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    I like that the Schultz deal is a one year “show me” deal, and starts with a 3.

    Not sure why a raise was justified.Because Norris, I guess.

    Well, I looked it up and the league gives out $250K to the winner of the Norris. So… Because Norris indeed.

  104. Richard S.S. says:

    Nail Yakupov is 21, with a team friendly two year contract with an RFA year at the end. Edmonton assumed he knew how to play, ignoring the possibility he wasn’t quite there yet and needed help. Nail Yakupov is why Edmonton is able to sign some of those talented Russian players (Yakimov, Slepyshev), although I don’t see them staying more than 3 years in AHL before going elsewhere. Nail Yakupov looks like he’s figured out to play, small sample size (sss) warning applies. It more like he’s changed something which made him better, not just who he’s playing with.

    Justin Schultz (discussed earlier) is 25, coming off a McTavish-eccentric contract and going into his final RFA year. He’s playing for another contract and knows what he needs to improve. He needs to show the NHL he’s better.

    I’m sure Nail I here long term. Schultz needs to be much better to be here beyond mid-season.

  105. G Money says:

    Woogie63: Committed hard to paly against big bodies to play against, Hendricks, Kilinkhammer

    We need a few more hard to play against big bodies AND our historical stick checkers to finish more check.

    I’m pretty sure you can add Korpikoski and Gryba to that list – probably exactly why those guys were brought in…

  106. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1: Buyout today then?

    So it’s 48 hours starting from now?

  107. jake70 says:

    If they wanted to give him 4M for a year, their money. Glad it’s one year. He’ll be dealt anyway because he can only “get better” and if he does and outperforms that contract, then you have to “pay him again”, which is fine if you are convinced he will be Karlsson 2.0.

  108. McSorley33 says:

    Let the buyout begin……

  109. Snowman says:

    Richard S.S.,

    I don’t see how you can blame the team for conditioning, size and strength. Many other players have improved this on their own during the same period.

    I agree it was assumed Schultz was thought to know many things before he got here. Unfortunately, Schultz is also getting to the age where he’s reaching his “prime”. I’m not blaming him for not knowing what he doesn’t know. I am saying the track on Schultz to improve dramatically is conversely related to his age. If it takes 300 games to know what a Dman is going to be, Schultz has till the end of this season to show it.

    The other issue is some of the things he’s supposed to be good at he’s not. He can’t pass effectively out of the zone under pressure (something LT and others have talked about). His shot is weak from from the point and he doesn’t use it particularly effectively.

    Guy can skate like the wind and he jumps in the play as well as anybody. He does lots of things well. He just also does a lot of things not well and he does some things not at all.

    He doesn’t deserve a pass. Neither does Yak. The team absolutely deserves some blame (a lot of blame) but so does the player.

  110. Pouzar says:

    PhrankLee: I’m really quite pumped about RNH contract given the Kessler contract.

    Yeah but one of these players has actually scored 50+ points in their career.

  111. hunter1909 says:

    LoDog: Hemsky looked like he didn’t give two shits but is loved by this blog.

    Hemsky got forced to play as the single offense – driven player for an entire NHL hockey team. Not just once, but year after year after year.

    It’s kind of like Jimi Hendrix never meeting Chas Chandler and moving to London. Staying where he was, playing for all-black show bands. Career peak as part of a weekly novelty act on the Andy Williams Show.

    It’s surprising Hemsky didn’t go crazy.

  112. Ben says:

    Maybe now that they’ve signed Schultz they can use the window to buy him out?

  113. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    There are two things I love about the Kesler contract, and the discussion surrounding it:

    1. I used to cut NHL GMs some slack for not understanding the impact of bad decisions in a salary cap environment. The salary cap was, for a few years, a new beast. Once it wasn’t new, it was at least something that didn’t behave erratically (it went up every damn year it seemed). So when it started going down, GMs could be forgiven for not having forecast it (if you are the forgiving type, I’m being generous here).

    There is simply no reason for that any longer. We’ve seen the markets shift, we’ve lived through change. We’ve seen the impact of long term deals to declining assets and the impact it has on otherwise fantastic clubs. Mike Richards should have been the clearest lesson possible for all GMs: he was pretty good at the time of the contract, but anyone who understood an ounce of math knew it was a matter of time before it bit his team in the ass. While he dropped harder than anticipated, the fact that it happened, and the timing of when it happened, should have surprised no one. It didn’t surprise anyone in our community, a group of people who sit around and talk about these things in their spare time, it damn sure shouldn’t have surprised large groups of people who are well paid to forecast these types of events.

    The Kessler contract tells me that GMs (and more importantly owners) haven’t learned their lessons.

    GMs can be forgiven for not learning their lessons, because much like Politicians there is a built in incentive to accept net-negative consequences in decision making so long as there is a time delay built into the equation. Owners don’t have that benefit, and the fact that they keep letting their GMs do this is, frankly, amusing.

    2. Fans discussion of the cap consequences of salary is fun, but also marginally irrational. The cap in any given year is a fixed number (ignoring bonuses and that type of thing). There is no penalty for being close to the cap, only over it. This means that a player being overpaid doesn’t make a lick of difference until it does. So for the Ducks, who historically have been WAY under the cap, the Kessler dollars don’t matter. Sure, they probably will some day, but until that day comes him being overpaid doesn’t make any difference whatsoever. This is a point a lot of people seem to be missing.

  114. Truth says:

    Sorry if I missed this, but is Schultz a UFA after this 1 year extension or RFA?

  115. spoiler says:

    Lowetide from the article said,

    The last Oilers forward who was big, physical, could play on a skill line and murder the competition in several ways? Bill Guerin. Edmonton traded him at the turn of the century.

    I can understand forgetting Cole and perhaps even glossing over the present Pouliot… Or not even trying to make a case for J. Stoll or Raffi the Ruffian…

    But Dustin Penner?

    He’s kind of too big to miss.

  116. Yeti says:

    G Money: You cannot separate players, especially young players, from their context – and the context for Schultz, Yakupov, Lander, and others, was not only the most toxic in the league, its hard to imagine a more toxic brew in the NHL anywhere ever.

    We know a thing or two about toxicity, if that was ever a concern?

  117. PhrankLee says:

    hunter1909: It’s surprising Hemsky didn’t go crazy.

    I think he did a bit when he was called out by Renney for having too short a stick.

    That was comical.

  118. wheatnoil says:

    Truth:
    Sorry if I missed this, but is Schultz a UFA after this 1 year extension or RFA?

    Still an RFA for one more year.

  119. PhrankLee says:

    Pouzar,

    And only one of them was asked to shoulder the entire team as a 19 yr old.

  120. book¡je says:

    Dear Justin,

    We are going to go through some arbitration thingy with you so that we can make use of a strange clause it the CBA that allows us to buy out another player. We both know that you are not really worth more than your qualifying offer, but are going to throw you an additional $200k for your troubles. Thanks in advance.

    Regards,
    Chiarelli

  121. Pouzar says:

    New post up.

  122. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    book¡je,

    The thing is, if I’m Schultz, I totally would have gone to arbitration once the Oilers elected for it.

    Arbitration isn’t a science. There is a reasonable chance that an Arbitrator would have looked at Schultz numbers (best offensive production on team at his position), and his usage (highest minutes) and decided to give him $4.5/season (or something to that effect). It wasn’t a sure thing, but I think there was more than an outside chance of it.

    The Oilers used the arbitration to open the window, but then they needed to give the guy a raise to make him sign something before actually getting to arbitration. For that reason, this deal makes sense.

    It sucks, but it makes sense.

  123. stevezie says:

    The criticism of the oduya is bizarre. Are.some.of.younger implying a two year deal is an albatross?

    There is no such thing as a bad one year.contract, and two years aren’t far behind.

    Look.at Dallas’ defense. They need an nhl defender. Say what you want about Oduya, but he is indisputably an nhl defenceman and Dallas got him for only 2 years! So what he is likely to fade, he is getting paid less than four mil! They have cap room. There is no better defenceman they could habe signed. The opportunity cost is nil.

    This is a great deal. They are getting something they need at a price they can afford. Those are the important facts.

  124. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I can understand forgetting Cole and perhaps even glossing over the present Pouliot…Or not even trying to make a case for J. Stoll or Raffi the Ruffian…

    But Dustin Penner?

    He’s kind of too big to miss.

    I never felt he could impact the game on more than two levels (passing, scoring) Massive levels, important levels, but I was no in favor of the offer sheet.

  125. DBO says:

    book¡je:
    Dear Justin,

    We are going to go through some arbitration thingy with you so that we can make use of a strange clause it the CBA that allows us to buy out another player.We both know that you are not really worth more than your qualifying offer, but are going to throw you an additional $200k for your troubles.Thanks in advance.

    Regards,
    Chiarelli

    This, all day this. can so seeing this conversation happening.

  126. Doug McLachlan says:

    I believe the wording of the CBA is that the 48 hour 2nd buyout window begins three days after the Schultz arbitration is finalized (in this case by an agreement). So we are still not getting any buyouts (if we are) until the weekend.

    Oilers are, as per General Fanager, sitting with 14 F (not including Draisaitl), 8 D (not including Nurse) and 3 G with $3.65M in cap space. Essentially CMD’s bonus $ and a little cushion.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/edmonton-oilers

    If Chiarelli were to do any buyouts the options are:

    Ference:

    2015-16 ($2,583,334)
    2016-17 ($2,083,334)
    2017-18 +$1,166,666
    2018-19 +$1,166,666

    Nikitin:

    2015-16 ($3,000,000)
    2016-17 +$1,500,000

    Purcell:
    2015-16 ($3,000,000)
    2016-17 +$1,500,000

    Will be interesting to see what, if any, combination of moves he has yet to do.

    Increasingly think that a buyout of Ference is a possibility. Nikitin and Purcell disappear entirely next year. If sufficiently pumped (and if salary is retained) both Nikitin and Purcell could be traded at the deadline with Nurse and Draisaitl coming up from the AHL to fill the roster spots. Wow us all Chia.

  127. Connor'sreal says:

    Peter Chiarelli,

    I don’t think ‘club selected arbitration’ means what you think it means.

  128. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’m not sure what “albatross contracts” you’re referring to when you mention Dallas.

    Sharp’s contract runs out in 2 seasons.

    Spezza has 4 years left.

    Oduya is on a 2 year deal.

    And their goaltending duo have 3 years remaining.

    Obviously the Stars are in “win now” mode and adding accomplished veterans to a very young core is exactly how you accomplish that.

    Using Oduya on a shutdown pairing with one of their younger D will allow Goligoski and Klingberg to kill against soft opposition.

    So the fact that the shortest of these contracts you indicate will be on the books for a minimum of two years and the fact (your very next post) that the cap will drop, not to mention any younger players who will be looking for salary increase means that your “today’s current best GM ever” is a genius. Just because you say so.

    Over $10m for goalies lasting 3 years in a cap dropping scenario won’t be a problem, just because you say it won’t.

    Aging players won’t be an issue on the teams you like because you say so, random variation won’t affect your “chosen stars”, but WILL absolutely demolish those players you do not like. Injuries, longevity, won’t be issues for your chosen examples but will obliterate the chances of other players. Everyone you chose will improve, everyone you dislike will either not progress or improve and will regress or falter. All because you say it will be so.

    Wait a minute, you must be omniscient and in charge of the destiny of the universe. Now that’s not fair, the rest of us don’t have those “special powers”. It makes it hard for us to make any comments since, well you already know what we are going to say and you can just changes things anyway.

    Listen if you wouldn’t mind, just flip me a winning Lotto 649 would you, I’d appreciate that.

  129. Richard S.S. says:

    One question remains, “Is Pitlick signed yet?” Because if he isn’t, the Buyout window isn’t open yet. If he is the buyout window starts at 1131 EDT.

  130. flygoalie says:

    Shulze is a player, just not a pro player. Like many could be’s, he has the skill set but lacks the complete game. The element that gets you to the puck faster where decisions are made instantly with confidence and execution is second nature. To get there he needs to come to camp stronger and faster, become a student of the game (mentally engaged) and adapt to the system put in front of him and make it his. I am confident MCL & CO will lay out an “authentic” NHL system that brings out the potential of the entire team and Chia will tweak the pieces that don’t fit.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Word this morning that the Canadian dollar has dropped to 77 cents.

    Since the Rogers TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars and 1/3 of NHL revenue is generated by Canadian teams, there’s a very good chance the salary cap will DROP next season.

    All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

    Which is exactly why Chia shouldn’t settle for a “Plan B” 1RD.

    I’d keep my powder dry unless you got the player you wanted.

    Many more should shake loose next year.

    I bet it will go down.

    It SHOULD have gone down this year except for the escalator.

    Most Canadian teams had most of their money by October.and they exchange it then to cover their US obligations.

    It was about 1.11 then.

    It will probably not be far off 130 this October.

    Also,

    Most estimates have Canadian teams producing 36% of NHL revenue.

    Cap is 71.4MM = 4.284B in revenue (actually lower than $4B, hence the huge escrow)

    Using 36% of US$4.284B was $1.626B @ 1.11 = C1.80B

    C$1.8B @ 1.30 exchange = US$1.385B

    Assume US revenues flat, the new total would be $US4.043

    So the cap would be around$67.38.

    There’s going to be some fine deals next year.

  132. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Exactly. Now is not the time to force a deal. Overpay on a one year deal. Give erhoff six mil if it means one year! But stay nimble for next summer. Maybe even more important than competing this year.

    Which makes Godot basically right on Franson.

    Basically

  133. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    Exactly. Now is not the time to force a deal. Overpay on a one year deal. Give erhoff six mil if it means one year! But stay nimble for next summer. Maybe even more important than competing this year.

    Which makes Godot basically right on Franson.

    Basically

    I’m not a fan of Franson’s either.

  134. GCW_69 says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Word this morning that the Canadian dollar has dropped to 77 cents.

    Since the Rogers TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars and 1/3 of NHL revenue is generated by Canadian teams, there’s a very good chance the salary cap will DROP next season.

    All sorts of woe for many teams if that happens.

    All the more reason to buy out Ference now. maximizes cap space this year and next.

  135. GCW_69 says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    Exactly. Now is not the time to force a deal. Overpay on a one year deal. Give erhoff six mil if it means one year! But stay nimble for next summer. Maybe even more important than competing this year.

    Which makes Godot basically right on Franson.

    Basically

    That depends on what is happening to Franson’s number. If his price is over $5M the Oilers shouldn’t touch him.

    But if his price drops under $5M and you can sign him to a deal without a no trade clause or only a limited no trade clause then the Oilers should try and sign him. He should ring up good counting numbers on an Oilers team with Hall, Nuge, Eberle, and McDavid. His power play numbers alone should increase his value.

    When Reinhart is ready to take the 2RD role, you trade Franson for futures.

    Basically, I don’t think the Franson answer is black and white. The longer he is on the market, the more likely he signs a value deal.

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