THE SECOND ROUND (2015 EDITION)

The Edmonton Oilers and the second round have had a love—hate relationship since the turn of the century. The best picks (Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Jeff Petry, Brad Winchester) in the second round rated as some of the team’s best overall, but the Stu MacGregor years have been slow developing. MacGregor, no longer with the team, was scouting director for the 2008-14 drafts and heavily involved in the scouting process this season. Here are the second-round picks delivered (listed with GM):

  • 2008: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe)
  • 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli)

MacGregor was part of the scouting group for 2015, although Bob Green was head of the group by draft day and MacGregor had been axed along with several scouts. I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the second round 2008-15. No grand statements on either side, no claims, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft.

In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a draft weeks after it happens.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it.

That last item was a moving target forever, but Scott Cullen at TSN has the line surrounded. His latest effort is here, and Cullen’s estimates suggest a second-round selection has a 33.8% chance of playing in 100 NHL games. Ironically, the ‘sweet spot’ second round picks since 1990 has been No. 41-45, with a 39% chance of making 100 games. Cullen’s work is here. So, we’re looking for players who have reached 100 NHL games or are trending that way.

2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES)

  1. Anton Lander 132
  2. Martin Marincin 85
  3. Tyler Pitlick 27
  4. David Musil 4
  5. Curtis Hamilton 1
  6. Mitchell Moroz 0
  7. Marco Roy 0

Lander passed the 100 game plateau this past season and is ‘in the range’ of expectation for Cullen based on No. 40 overall (“average” for No. 40, according to Cullen, is a very good minor leaguer who plays 50-200 NHL games). I think we can also argue that Marincin is now in that range, so we’ll count two men (of the six) who have qualified as average. Beyond that, Tyler Pitlick and David Musil played in 2014-15 and may play games with the Oilers this coming season. No home runs, no Jarret Stoll, but this looks more promising than two years ago (probably part of the whole ‘wait five years’ thing we talk about all the time).

ARROWS

  • “It’s over” arrows: Curtis Hamilton, Marco Roy
  • Bad arrows: Mitchell Moroz
  • Lukewarm arrows: Tyler Pitlick, David Musil
  • Good arrows: Martin Marincin
  • Very good arrows: Anton Lander

ONE BY ONE

  •  C Anton Lander: I’m prepared to call this a successful selection, although that may not be agreeable across the fan base. Lander took forever, but much of that can be laid at the feet of the organization and their handling of the player. From January 2015 to the end of the World Hockey Championships, Anton Lander looked like a quality player of high calibre. I think this has been a successful selection, perhaps a little late.
  • R Tyler Pitlick: Of all the 2010 picks (aside from Hall), he’s the one I always thought would make it. I understand his offense hasn’t carried with him to pro but if Rob Klinkhammer can forge a career then Tyler Pitlick should be able to find a role. Pitlick is in a great spot now with all of these fantastic centers in the system but he must stay healthy. Five years in, his career looks somewhat similar to Anton Lander’s one year ago. I think Lander is a better player but Pitlick may catch McLellan’s eye and end up having more success with a new coach.
  • D Martin Marincin: I believe he’s an NHL player and fully expect him to have success in Toronto, beginning in the fall. If you focus on the things Marincin can do, instead of what he cannot, well it’s a pretty damn long list. Whatever the Oilers do to get themselves into a stubborn spot with defensemen like Petry and Marincin, they need to find that flaw, lance that boil, and kiss it goodbye once and for all. You’re developing defensemen for other teams, Edmonton, and it’s a silly damn thing to do.
  • L Curtis Hamilton: He was granted an extra year and it was his best one in OKC. Hopefully he finds gainful employment and gets another chance with an NHL team. I always felt Hamilton needed to play a more aggressive game, to be more physical, but that’s a view from afar and perhaps unfair. Best of luck, Curtis Hamilton.
  • D David Musil: Draft day aside, he’s done a pretty damn good job of matriculating toward NHL employment. He seems a little blocked now, but you can see him arriving as a 5-6D depth defender in a year or two and having a good run. Musil is a smart defenseman and that should bode well as he gains more pro experience.
  • L Mitch Moroz: Right at the end of a lost first pro season he began to show his ability, and that’s important for his second season. Moroz is big and has foot speed, plus an ability to agitate and create havoc. That has value and if he can bring some of his offense to pro I think he could make it. Disappointing season, but a nice teaser at the very end.
  • C Marco Roy: Extremely disappointing result and I’m still uncertain why he wasn’t signed. Edmonton could use a two-way forward with some grit and that’s Roy in a sketch. There must have been a disconnect somewhere but the exact fracture is not readily available to me as an observer.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

67 Responses to "THE SECOND ROUND (2015 EDITION)"

  1. RexLibris says:

    One area of potential discord is reviewing the draft in context.

    Musil may be tracking well, but there will always be echoes of “could’ve had Saad” in the room.

    I’d argue you might also want to limit it to reviewing the picks as they are, rather than hindsighting the entire draft all over again.

  2. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    One area of potential discord is reviewing the draft in context.

    Musil may be tracking well, but there will always be echoes of “could’ve had Saad” in the room.

    I’d argue you might also want to limit it to reviewing the picks as they are, rather than hindsighting the entire draft all over again.

    For sure, I’m using Cullen’s numbers as the measurement. We can discuss Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner, certainly they are part of the story. I’m more interested in seeing if any of these people can contribute to the McDavid years, though.

  3. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    RexLibris: hindsighting the entire draft all over again.

    I Doan know anybody who does that.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    “We can discuss Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner, certainly they are part of the story.”

    Every team can do that every year. So, my suggestion is whatever.

    “Pitlick may catch McLellan’s eye and end up having more success with a new coach.”

    You’ll recall he caught Eakins’ eye. Big, fast, can use his stick to hit the little black disk – what’s not to like?

  5. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: For sure, I’m using Cullen’s numbers as the measurement. We can discuss Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner, certainly they are part of the story. I’m more interested in seeing if any of these people can contribute to the McDavid years, though.

    Musil (and Davidson) are potential cheap defensive D gems for the 3rd pairing when the cap gets brutally tight in three years and the Oilers have to start discarding talent. Two guys, one 24 and one 22 as Fayne and Gryba replacements.

    The timelines work pretty well. Ference gets bought out next summer, and Davidson become #7D, Musil moving into his 2nd contract in Bakersfield, ready for extended injury callups.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    “We can discuss Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner, certainly they are part of the story.”

    Every team can do that every year. So, my suggestion is whatever.

    “Pitlick may catch McLellan’s eye and end up having more success with a new coach.”

    You’ll recall he caught Eakins’ eye.Big, fast, can use his stick to hit the little black disk – what’s not to like?

    Pitlick is absolutely impossible not to like as a player. After he scored against LAK at the end of the season, I embarked on a long monologue on his struggles and future right here in my living room. Mrs. Lowetide crushed the moment with “that guy can’t stay healthy walking home from the rink.”

    The moment was ruined.

  7. spoiler says:

    Pitlick and Moroz strike me as very similar plays with respect to player type, league and draft hole. The underlying draft strategy seems very much the same in both cases.

    Edit: Pitlick having earlier offensive hints.

  8. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Lowetide: The moment was ruined.

    don’t mention the Riders

  9. sliderule says:

    I doubt if Pitlick or Moroz get more than a brief look with the oilers.

    Slepyshev and Yakimov look like they may turn into players that could contribute

    The rest of the oiler picks other than first rounders are real long shots.

    If they want cheap fits for the cap they are going to have to draft real well over next few years.

  10. Pajamah says:

    Sorry to thread jack a bit here, but my wife, teenager, and myself just got back from Slide the City down on Grierson Hill.

    It’s not beers on the back porch kind of good, but damn Edmonton, you put on a good show.

    In regards to the post, I’m convinced the Oilers traded away their two best second round picks, likely of the last 10 years, in the last 6 months alone. Ridiculous that this team needs defensemen and Petry and Marincin don’t make the cut.

  11. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    I doubt if Pitlick or Moroz get more than a brief look with the oilers.

    Slepyshev and Yakimov look like they may turn into players that could contribute

    The rest of the oiler picks other than first rounders are real long shots.

    If they want cheap fits for the cap they are going to have to draft real well over next few years.

    I’d disagree. A player like Simpson, or Platzer, could absolutely emerge. The Oilers get crapped on a lot for their drafting, but a guy they took in the fourth round in 2012 (Erik Gustafsson) has a chance to make the ‘Hawks in the fall.

  12. LoDog says:

    Sekara fayne
    Klef schultz/nurse
    Gryba reinhart

    Regarding second round pick marincin. Where would he fit on this list?

    7th?

  13. John Chambers says:

    Thing is, you can TRADE a 2nd rd pick for a real live NHL player anytime which is a much more efficient use of the pick than a 1-in-3 chance of producing a middling NHL player.

    Cogliano, Visnovski, Petry, Boychuk, Cammalleri, Frolik, Jagr … all these players were traded for with a 2nd being the primary asset going the other way. Not to mention Paajarvi + a 2nd yielded David Perron with 3 yrs left on a value contract.

    Garth Snow has become particularly adept at trading 2nds either for veteran defensemen, or to move up into the first round. He understands best that the 2nd round pick has more perceived value than actual value.

    I’ll finish by suggesting that at anytime last season MacT would’ve happily traded Lander for a 2nd round pick, and the other quality 2nd rounder, Marincin, was expediently traded for a 4th.

    So if you ca sucker a GM into trading you a real NHLer for picks in the 30-60 range, you’ve won the trade.

  14. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I crap on oiler drafting because they haven’t successfully selected players other than first rounders.

    Lander is the only non first round oiler selection that should make the team.

    You can say what about Marincin Petry and Reider but they are not on oilers roster.I would also say Gustafsson is similar and probably why he wasn’t signed

    One of the faults of oiler drafting was selecting players who don’t fit the “heavy stick model”.

    If having a “heavy stick ” was a requirement none of those players fitted that mode and was one of reasons they were traded for peanuts.

    As Chia agrees with that model then don’t waste draft picks on players that don’t fit.

  15. speeds says:

    John Chambers:
    Thing is, you can TRADE a 2nd rd pick for a real live NHL player anytime which is a much more efficient use of the pick than a 1-in-3 chance of producing a middling NHL player.

    Cogliano, Visnovski, Petry, Boychuk, Cammalleri, Frolik, Jagr … all these players were traded for with a 2nd being the primary asset going the other way. Not to mention Paajarvi + a 2nd yielded David Perron with 3 yrs left on a value contract.

    Garth Snow has become particularly adept at trading 2nds either for veteran defensemen, or to move up into the first round. He understands best that the 2nd round pick has more perceived value than actual value.

    I’ll finish by suggesting that at anytime last season MacT would’ve happily traded Lander for a 2nd round pick, and the other quality 2nd rounder, Marincin, was expediently traded for a 4th.

    So if you ca sucker a GM into trading you a real NHLer for picks in the 30-60 range, you’ve won the trade.

    It depends on the player in question.

    A 4th for Marincin, a player making under 1M where you hold the rights to for 4 years is a very different story from an overpaid player with one year until UFA status.

  16. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Pitlick is absolutely impossible not to like as a player. After he scored against LAK at the end of the season, I embarked on a long monologue on his struggles and future right here in my living room. Mrs. Lowetide crushed the moment with “that guy can’t stay healthy walking home from the rink.”

    The moment was ruined.

    She’s right.

    He is very Nealon Greene-esque.

    🙂

  17. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers:
    Thing is, you can TRADE a 2nd rd pick for a real live NHL player anytime which is a much more efficient use of the pick than a 1-in-3 chance of producing a middling NHL player.

    Cogliano, Visnovski, Petry, Boychuk, Cammalleri, Frolik, Jagr … all these players were traded for with a 2nd being the primary asset going the other way. Not to mention Paajarvi + a 2nd yielded David Perron with 3 yrs left on a value contract.

    Garth Snow has become particularly adept at trading 2nds either for veteran defensemen, or to move up into the first round. He understands best that the 2nd round pick has more perceived value than actual value.

    I’ll finish by suggesting that at anytime last season MacT would’ve happily traded Lander for a 2nd round pick, and the other quality 2nd rounder, Marincin, was expediently traded for a 4th.

    So if you ca sucker a GM into trading you a real NHLer for picks in the 30-60 range, you’ve won the trade.

    I agree to a point, but Sutter got himself into an awful situation back in the day because of it. I think you need balance. Protein is fab but you’ve got to eat your vegetables.

  18. John Chambers says:

    speeds: It depends on the player in question.

    A 4th for Marincin, a player making under 1M where you hold the rights to for 4 years is a very different story from an overpaid player with one year until UFA status.

    Yes but…

    How many quality NHL games will the Leafs get out of Marincin? They might get 20 and they might get 200.

    Trading a 2nd for Lubo or Boychuk has only guaranteed the Islanders one season of a veteran defenseman, but so far that’s more games than Marincin has delivered after 5 seasons. Not to mention that Snow (or Bob Murray, or Bergevin) has been able to re-sign the player in the above cases.

    All I’m saying is that if a team traded their 2nd rd picks for veteran players, and got an average of 1.5 quality seasons out of that player, over a decade they would derive better value from employing that strategy than a team who drafted and developed 3 real NHL players using their picks over that span.

  19. RexLibris says:

    Let’s take this debate and turn it on it’s side for a moment.

    Supernova is currently working on a project that would likely help to put up some very good borders on the discussion: development.

    The Oilers drafted three good bets in 2010. Pitlick and Hamilton have had injury issues and neither one was given extensive time in a single league to gain traction. Marincin was left alone to develop and came along relatively well but was traded because someone in the Oilers’ management got angry when they couldn’t tie the laces on their loafers that morning.

    Lander was given lots of time overseas to develop and when he came here was thrown into the fire to try and save Steve Tambellini’s job. He was always going to be short on offense, but everything else he did in hockey was well-regarded by outside observers. He wasn’t a project until the he came to the Oilers.

    Moroz was “trending” on his draft day and the scouting reports read well. Now he’s getting table scraps for minutes in the AHL rather than being sent to the ECHL where he could be the focus.

    Drafting is only a small part of the process.

    Development is the key and while Tambellini did some good things there, he was raising the dead and it was a very long journey back from the river Styx. They’re only part way there now and have lost a good coach along the way in Nelson.

    Chiarelli is going to have to work a lot on the NHL roster, but if he leaves the AHL duties to Howson and MacTavish…I’m not sure this will go well because as the Blackhawks have shown, a healthy draft-and-develop pipeline is absolutely crucial to sustained success in the modern NHL.

    The Oilers don’t have it and I don’t trust the men in charge of laying the pipe.

  20. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I agree to a point, but Sutter got himself into an awful situation back in the day because of it. I think you need balance. Protein is fab but you’ve got to eat your vegetables.

    Don’t forget a good mix of ancient grains like barley, malt and hops. A little peat for garnish doesn’t hurt, either.

  21. Attila says:

    No news on a buyout???

  22. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Attila:
    No news on a buyout???

    I’m still waiting. Apparently nobody wants to pay me to not play NHL hockey. I’ve got almost 50 years of experience in this, so I’m still hopeful something can be worked out.

  23. RexLibris says:

    Attila:
    No news on a buyout???

    I heard LT put Smid on unconditional waivers for the purposes of a buyout today.

    There is no end to that man’s spite.

  24. Ryan says:

    Anyone else here think that we’re vastly overrating Anton Lander?

    The Vollman shows that he played near the Gadzick constellation… Slight zone push against the dregs of the NHL.

    He had 1.6 5v5 per 60 which is inflated by a team leading 2nd assists per 60…

    His shooting percent is abysmal.

    I’d bet half the guys here are pencilling him in for 35-40 points this up coming season.

  25. smellyglove says:

    Until someone develops a methodology for evaluating drafts we’re going to be having these discussions over beers with little clarity.

    The hardest part is that the same player could turn out different if he were picked at say #32 over #31–so much of it is about the team, the process to get to the show, and the opportunities that preside. Resolution towards the success of different developmental mediums (extra time in JR and the situation there, AHL use, and NHL time–practicing with the best vs. riding the pine all the time), would go a long way to these ends.

    HOWEVER, I do believe that you could statistically mitigate against these wildcards, somehow, with big enough sample sizes.

    I disagree with LT on two points:
    – I’m more bearish on Oiler drafts. We’ve been picking top of the order for 5-6-7 years now. Of course you’d see more success than if you had to draft on merit (scouting excellence)
    – Lander. He had a good run of 25 games, that’s it. He’s far from proven and, to be honest, is in the near same situation as Yakupov. He probably has about 45 games to demonstrate some offense or we could see him riding out of town.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    Nope. He and Marincin as high praise as they get around here did not come to camp prepared last year and did not deserve a roster spot based on their camp performence. 29 other GMs did not pick him up for free. Lander improved as the year went on but we all know development is uneven. His appearance at the WHC is a good sign but it is a tournament of small sample sizes. Hopefully he comes to camp prepared this year and improves on last year.

  27. Ryan says:

    John Chambers,

    The problem with your logic is that you’re looking at things through the lense if the Oilers draft record. Sure, I’ll take a season of Boychuk over a career of Tyler Pitlick, Anton Lander, or Martin Marincin.

    If we’re patting ourselves on the back for drafting marginal players that take years to develop and sail thru waivers, I get your point.

    The problem is that other teams actually do find impact players in the draft outside of the first round.

  28. Bank Shot says:

    Ryan:
    Anyone else here think that we’re vastly overrating Anton Lander?

    The Vollman shows that he played near the Gadzick constellation… Slight zone push against the dregs of the NHL.

    He had 1.6 5v5 per 60 which is inflated by a team leading 2nd assists per 60…

    His shooting percent is abysmal.

    I’d bet half the guys here are pencilling him in for 35-40 points this up coming season.

    Lander is going to have a huge drop off scoring wise.

    He put up seven PP points in half a season. He was only behing Eberle in his PP scoring rates.

    I’m cheering for Moroz to make it. He’s the type of guy that just has to progress to the point of “Not hurting the team” in order to make the NHL IMO. It’s an easier road for him.

  29. godot10 says:

    Oilers 2nd rounders Nelson has put into the NHL For drafts up to 2010.

    Jeff Petry 314 games and a new contract
    Taylor Chorney 68 games and a new contract
    Colin McDonald 140 games and a new contract
    Anton Lander 132 games and a new contract
    Martin Marincin 85 games and a new contract
    Tyler Pitlick 27 games and a new contract

    His only complete miss was Curtis Hamilton. He rehabilitated two lost causes in McDonald and Chorney.

    Four of the seven are likely to reach 200 games. Chorney might make 100. Pitlick reckoning comes this year.

    Three of seven likely have long careers…Petry, Lander, Marincin.

  30. SwedishPoster says:

    RexLibris,

    Thing is Hamilton and Moroz weren’t very good bets for where they were picked, their draft year production didn’t suggest much upside, there were factors like rookie status and injury at play and as late round longshots they’d been ok due to these factors, in the second round you don’t optimize your chances by picking players with such mediocre production.

    Marincin and Pitlick were better picks. In both cases you could argue messed up development. In the case of Marty it feels like a lack of communication between the player and the Oilers. In the case of Pitlick it started with a lot of different teams the first few years, a rush to the AHL and injury woes that could or could not have been due to rushing to pro hockey and changing team and league three times in as many years.

  31. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ryan,

    Nope.He and Marincin as high praise as they get around here did not come to camp prepared last year and did not deserve a roster spot based on their camp performence.29 other GMs did not pick him up for free.Lander improved as the year went on but we all know development is uneven.His appearance erat the WHC is a good sign but it is a tournament of small sample sizes.Hopefully he comes to camp prepared this year and improves on last year.

    Remember last summer when Woodguy was telling us how good Marc Arcobello was from a selection of corsi events from half the games he played the year before?

    Then he got his teeth kicked in and couldn’t produce any offense for the Oilers last year. 🙂

    2013-14 Arcobello. 41 – 4 – 14 – 18, -7
    2014-15 Lander. 38 – 6 – 14 – 20, -12

  32. jm363561 says:

    Anyone else here think that we’re vastly overrating Anton Lander?
    ====
    I am a big fan of AL but you make good points. I guess we will find out by the end of the year if my love is unrequited. I keep asking the same question about Sleps. Apart from some pretty middling boxcars and a few YouTube highlights is there anything else?

  33. Ryan says:

    jm363561:
    Anyone else here think that we’re vastly overrating Anton Lander?
    ====
    I am a big fan of AL but you make good points. I guess we will find out by the end of the year if my love is unrequited. I keep asking the same question about Sleps. Apart from some pretty middling boxcars and a few YouTube highlights is there anything else?

    Hopefully Draisatl is nearly ready.

    If he isn’t and Lander flounders to produce offense, we could have one of the worst third lines in the NHL.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Then he got his teeth kicked in and could produce any offense for the Oilers last year

    Teeth kicked in?

    Arco in 14/15 for the Oilers 50.49CF% (36gp)

    Every Oiler he played 90min + last year (in order of TOI)

    52.9% w/ Perron
    49.4% w/ Yak (best C CF% w/ Yak last year btw…..)
    53.8% w/ Petry
    52.74% w/ Purcell
    45..3% w/ Ference (there’s thecaptain doing what he does……lordy)
    48.9% w/ Fayne
    51.2% w/ Nikitin

    That’s not getting your teeth kicked in…..especially on the Oilers.

    Goals For though? Yeah, couldn’t score to save his life. None of the Oilers could to start the year.

    5v5 Pts/60 1.04 gross

    SH% 6.76
    ONSV% .904
    PDO 972

    Here’s his CF%,5v5 pts/60, and PDO with NSH, PIT and ARI

    NSH (4 games)
    CF% 50
    Pts/60 1.48
    PDO 1071

    PIT (10 games)
    CF% 58.38
    Pts/60 1.04 – still gross
    PDO 1000

    ARI (27 games)
    CF% 52.79
    Pts/60 1.78 – That’s a nice number
    PDO 992

    I think he’s a decent complimentary player, but he’s needs a shooter to help drive his offence.

    Hope he has a good year in TOR.

    Many things happened to Arco last year, but getting his teeth kicked in was not among them.

  35. wheatnoil says:

    Ryan,

    You’re talking about the Arcobello that scored 18 goals last year?

    Edit: My bad, 17 goals. Also, what Woodguy said.

  36. John Chambers says:

    Ryan:
    John Chambers,

    The problem with your logic is that you’re looking at things through the lense if the Oilers draft record.Sure, I’ll take a season of Boychuk over a career of Tyler Pitlick, Anton Lander, or Martin Marincin.

    If we’re patting ourselves on the back for drafting marginal players that take years to develop and sail thru waivers, I get your point.

    The problem is that other teams actually do find impact players in the draft outside of the first round.

    Thing is the average for ALL teams is about 25% that you’ll find a player in the 2nd round who plays 200+ games.

    If you trade your 2nd round pick for an actual player, based on trades not only the Oilers but all NHL teams make, recent history shows it to be worth 100+ games out of a veteran player.

    It may not be a good strategy fora rebuilding team, but a competing team shouldn’t hesitate over cashing picks 45-60 as a primary means to augment their lineup.

  37. John Chambers says:

    jm363561,

    Lander was OKCs best player in the years 2013 and 2014. He has dominated that level as a 21 and 22 year old and is right on schedule to arrive on the NHL where he succeeded in posting respectable offence over a half season.

    Lander is ready to centre a checking line in the NHL and the Oilers should be expecting tremendous value over the next two years of his contract.

  38. Магия 10 says:

    John Chambers: Garth Snow has become particularly adept at trading 2nds either for veteran defensemen, or to move up into the first round. He understands best that the 2nd round pick has more perceived value than actual value.

    John Chambers: It may not be a good strategy fora rebuilding team, but a competing team shouldn’t hesitate over cashing picks 45-60 as a primary means to augment their lineup.

    Just checked on the 5 second round picks Snow moved the last 2 years. 3 of them are high second rounders 33 35 37.

  39. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    Ryan,

    You’re talking about the Arcobello that scored 18 goals last year?

    Edit: My bad, 17 goals. Also, what Woodguy said.

    Yes, I am talking about the Arcobello who scored seven goals and posted 12 points in 36 games while gifted with cherry zone starts relative to the Oilers.

  40. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Look at his zone starts… Those aren’t terrific numbers in that context.

    John Chambers: Thing is the average for ALL teams is about 25% that you’ll find a player in the 2nd round who plays 200+ games.

    If you trade your 2nd round pick for an actual player, based on trades not only the Oilers but all NHL teams make, recent history shows it to beworth 100+ games out of a veteran player.

    It may not be a good strategy fora rebuilding team, but a competing team shouldn’t hesitate over cashing picks 45-60 as a primary means to augment their lineup.

    Where do you get your data for veteran player gp or are you just spitballing numbers?

  41. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    Look at his zone starts…Those aren’t terrific numbers in that context.

    Where do you get your data for veteran player gp or are you just spitballing numbers?

    So the bar is now “not terrific” instead of “getting teeth kicked in”?

    I can agree with not terrific.

  42. wheatnoil says:

    Ryan: Yes, I am talking about the Arcobello who scored seven goals and posted 12 points in 36 games while gifted with cherry zone starts relative to the Oilers.

    Which is pretty reasonable 3rd line forward production. I don’t think Arcobello was ever a solid bet as a 2nd line centre. However, as Woodguy points out, he was a good possession player, which is what his analysis before the year sussed out. The man lacks a shot, though, I agree. Still, he scored 31 points at the end of the year, above average 3rd line production. The problem last year wasn’t Arcobello. It was no 2nd line centre.

    As for Lander, I do agree with you that we shouldn’t get too carried away with point totals. He’ll be playing behind at least McDavid and Nuge. If he scores 25-30 points, which is average to above average 3rd line production (marcobello numbers), while still doing PK work, winning a few face-offs, and forechecking hard, he’ll provide great value.

  43. G Money says:

    Ryan: I’d bet half the guys here are pencilling him in for 35-40 points this up coming season.

    Ryan: 2014-15 Lander. 38 – 6 – 14 – 20, -12

    Just out of curiousity, you have run the math and the comparables on that, right?

    82/38 * 20 = 43 pts

    If anyone is pencilling Lander in for 35 to 40 points next season, it actually means that over a full season they’re expecting a modest decline from his pace last season.

    That would put him on pace for something like .4 to .5 ppg, which based on last years scoring pace, would be somewhere around 90th give or take 10 spots in the league for C.

    Solid third to fourth line territory in other words.

    He was .53 ppg and 71st in the league for C last year.

    Doesn’t strike me as irrational exuberance about the player.

  44. John Chambers says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    Look at his zone starts…Those aren’t terrific numbers in that context.

    Where do you get your data for veteran player gp or are you just spit balling numbers?

    Spitballing, but to distil my point:

    Second round picks, for the Oilers and everyone else, produce three Tyler Pitlicks for every Lander. In recent history second rounders have been exchanged for Cogliano, Visnovski, Petry, Boychuk, Frolik, Cammalleri, Andrew Ladd, Ben Bishop (STL to OTT), Chris Kelly, Jason Garrison, Cam Talbot, etc.

    Many of the above players re-signed with the teams that traded for them or still had years left on their contracts.

    It seems to me these picks have disproportionately high trade value.

  45. LMHF#1 says:

    LoDog:
    Sekara fayne
    Klef schultz/nurse
    Gryba reinhart

    Regarding second round pick marincin. Where would he fit on this list?

    7th?

    The second pairing.

  46. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    If you remove the non-centres and the guys that played less than 10 games, he was in second line territory last year (via the points per game among centres, I mean… one day the NHL will actually post positions correctly).

  47. G Money says:

    wheatnoil:
    G Money,

    If you remove the non-centres and the guys that played less than 10 games, he was in second line territory last year (via the points per game among centres, I mean… one day the NHL will actually lust positions correctly).

    Yeah, I was just pointing out that someone expecting Lander to put up, say 35 pts next season is actually being conservative. As you note, probably *quite* conservative!

    I think Ryan’s point is valid in one sense – a lot of the folks that are expecting big things out of Lander (I’ve heard some suggest he be 2C ahead of McDavid and Draisaitl) seem to do so on the assumption that his results last year plus the WHC are not just indicative but represent a new baseline for him as a player, and so he’s bound to do better next year.

    I do think that’s a bit unsupported. Small samples, etc.

    Based on his development as a player, anchored with his steady improvement in the AHL to over ppg last season, his solid NHL season, and his subsequent stellar performance at the WHC on Sweden’s top line, I think Lander is now a legit NHLer.

    I expect that he will make an excellent 3C next year as a result, with the possibility of competently stepping up a line for short periods of time if required.

    I have no idea if that makes me an irrational exuberant on him or not!

  48. Ryan says:

    G Money,

    Doesn’t strike me as irrational exuberance about the player.

    I was actually trying to be generous.

    My bad, I guess you have Lander penned in for 2 minutes of PP toi/game–not to mention a 5v4/60 of 5.85.

    Do you also expect Lander to be fifth in the league in second assist/60 amount forward skaters who’ve played over 40 games?

    I smell a Woodguy bet brewing here.

  49. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    I think I’ve outlined my expectations on him pretty clearly, and why.

    I will continue to leave it to you and others to decide whether those expectations are irrational or not.

    Interesting point on the PP though – I thought Lander was a huge part of the resurgence of the power play under Nelson, and in large measure, that was because he was one of the few players willing to stand in front of the net.

    The much-improved Nelson powerplay sagged when Lander was out for a few games.

    So it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continues to be a big part of the power play next year.

  50. John Chambers says:

    If Lander scores 30 points we should all be elated.

  51. Ryan says:

    G Money,

    I like Lander just like everyone else here. I’m cheering for him too. Unfortunately, I’m forecasting a big downturn in his offensive production.

    Last year he played the dregs and his offensive production at 5v5 was inflated by second assists which is not a repeatable talent. I also think with a new coach and McDavid, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell he gets 2 minutes of PP toi/game.

  52. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: So the bar is now “not terrific” instead of “getting teeth kicked in”?

    I can agree with not terrific.

    Okay, we’re on the same page. I just have a penchant for mild hyperbole not to mention I love using that idiom.

  53. G Money says:

    Ryan: Last year he played the dregs and his offensive production at 5v5 was inflated by second assists which is not a repeatable talent. I also think with a new coach and McDavid, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell he gets 2 minutes of PP toi/game.

    Strikes me that the second assist analysis is a bit of a stretch, rammed headlong into the law of small numbers.

    It’s 8 of 20 that you’re talking about. Small additions to any of the other numbers will cause huge swings in his 2A/60 ranking.

    Or to put it another way, the idea that normalizing his second assist count will somehow crater his point totals isn’t really true. Just a couple of points here or there that aren’t second assists, and he’d probably drop from league leader way down the list.

    Doesn’t seem to me that you can draw any supportable conclusions about the sustainability of his scoring based on a ratio which, being based on two such small numbers, is going to be extremely volatile.

    A more rigorous look would probably consider his AHL scoring, which, at over a ppg both of his last two seasons, would indicate that 0.5 ppg in the NHL is not an unreasonable target at all.

    Maybe McDavid reduces Lander’s PP time, maybe he doesn’t. As I noted above, my observation was that Lander was an important part of the PP2 because he stands in front of the net, but isn’t so unskilled a la Gazdic that he’s a liability in getting into the zone in the first place.

    Having some skill and yet showing some willingness to stand in the danger zone is not a penchant in excess supply on the Edmonton Oilers, and that won’t change with McSaviour running one of the two PPs.

  54. v4ance says:

    Kevin Flynn ‏@joshweissbock

    Two Takeaways:
    1. Even at AHL bust rate is high
    2. If your prospect isn’t out of the AHL after 22, it’s unlikely they will be an NHL regular

    Of 20 yo regular AHLers, 32.69% of forwards become NHL regulars, while only 30.43% of defence men do – not sure if that is stat. sig.

    19 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 40.26% (n=77), dmen 50% (n=42) – some SSS issues there i think

    21 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 22.22% (n=522), dmen 24.67% (n=300)

    22 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 18.58% (n=565), dmen 16.61% (n=301)

    23 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 12.45% (n=514), dmen 12.77% (n=274)

    24 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 9.79% (n=480), dmen 10.77% (n=260)

    25 yo regular AHLers -> NHL regulars: forwards 7.30% (n=370), dmen 7.08% (n=212)

    Interesting data that supports the “wait 5 years to judge” mantra that LT likes on making decisions on drafted prospects.

    If you get drafted at 18, by the time you get to 22 or 23, you should be on the cusp of NHL employment.

  55. oilswell says:

    LowetideIn order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:
    We can’t judge a draft weeks after it happens.

    LT, we’ve had some discussions but we have never agreed upon this, and I still disagree earnestly, completely, totally, fundamentally. Drafting is a game played with imperfect information. It just is, it is the draft’s true nature.

    To frame the issue rather starkly, please consider the case of the 6/49 lottery. How would you evaluate a lottery ticket choice the day after the draw? Oh no! Tambellini chose 2 3 13 22 33 42 instead of 2 3 13 22 34 42! What a maroon! Dale Tallon, smartly, chose 34 instead of 33! Or would you say that information gained after the draft lottery is inadmissable in evaluating draft lottery choices?

    I have trouble believing you would willing play the post-hoc rationalization game; it is the game made popular in these parts by Mr. DSF, who would crow about the infallible skill of Bunco champions because, hey, history shows they made correct moves and the only explanation is skill!

    The choices made by drafting teams the day of the draft are just as valid/poor the day after the draft, and 5, 10, and 20 and 10,000 years later. IMO it cannot be any other way, and if you disagree I emplore you to please create a new post explaining your position clearly. Specifically, explain how you think that the information gained after the draft (development history, injury history, death history, etc.) should in any way modify the assessment of the choices made at the draft table made by beings that are unable to see into the future with precision. For bonus points, explain how stock market investors should be evaluated against the stock history 5 years after (you should have bought Apple stock in 2004, you idiot!).

    Sure, we can evaluate players 5 years after the draft because it take that long before the story is told. I remember chiding speeds gently for preferring Voracek over Gagner in that draft. Team A (oilswell) might have a model for how player X, Y, and Z develops post-draft, which leads them to draft player X over player Y in the same position. Team B (speeds) might have a different model leading to player Y over player X. Now we can, absolutely, evaluate whether the model of Team B (boo!) better predicts the future versus the model of Team A (yay!). Doing that is sensible because it compares decision models based on fixed inputs. It is disingenuous to compare team A and B’s models against an ideal model that ranks the draft choices 10 years on based on hindsight.

  56. Woogie63 says:

    12-13 scouts spread out across the globe watching young men playing hockey is producing poor results. Is there a better way to “scout”. This league has been scouting young hockey players for +30 years, the same way, producing the same poor results.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I get the pushback on Lander, but I think it’s misplaced.

    The context here (at LT’s) is the long game of prospect development and the insatiable viewing we all do through a player’s ups and downs.

    Why are people excited about Lander?

    Because they see a fully formed prospect now emerging as an NHL player (with the possibility ever available for rapid regression, or sideways strangeness via injury, loss of TOI and cherry deployment [which colors both numbers and perception]).

    THAT… the experience of watching something bloom for 6 years is exciting and worthy of celebration and it is hardly surprising that the experience warms the soft, tender parts of our hockey souls.

    None of which is to say, Lander is going to stick in the NHL for the long haul, become an impact player, or anything of that nature.

    The high water mark here is probably “critical depth NHLer through his 30 year old season.” That’s the best case scenario. Adjust your expectations accordingly… which I’m suggesting have already been aligned properly.

    I think we know who Lander is.

    I don’t think we are excited because he’s going to blow the doors off the NHL.

    I think we’re excited to see him show up to camp with a legit ticket to the NHL club (which has a lot of room for depth players).

    ———–
    Also… Arcobello is a fantastic player.

    Again… excitement over seeing him become a useful depth player is what’s at stake here.

  58. Frank the dog says:

    If you look at Lander’s work under and outside of Mr. Eakins I suspect you may find that he is one more player whose career was negatively impacted under the coach who blamed everyone else .

    I’m thinking specifically of the Worlds and under Nelson as the “good” Lander, but he also excelled in Sweden.
    As for that other coach, I would personally apply an Eakins Discount to any player falling under his NHL tutelage.

    TMac need only be as good as Nelson for Lander to do well, and remember TMac would have seen him at the worlds.

    If one is looking for a clear picture it always helps to find the right lens.

    Edited.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Frank the dog:
    If you look at Lander’s workunder and outside ofMr. Eakins I suspect you may find that he is one more player whose career was negatively impacted under the coach who blamed everyone else .

    I’m thinking specifically of the Worlds and under Nelson.
    As for that other coach, I would personally apply an Eakins Discount to any playerfalling under his NHL tutelage.

    TMac need only be as good as Nelson for Lander to do well, and remember TMacwould have seen him at the worlds.

    If one is looking for a clear picture it always helps to find the right lens.

    I think the answer is less sinister.

    Coaches (like GMs, fans and everyone else) have their favorites, their reliables.

    Players like Lander (with enough tools to play in the NHL, but hardly enough to be the obvious choice among the various depth candidates) need a break and a coach that has a shine for them.

    Nelson knew Lander and had relied on him in the past, so he played him. Eakins knew Acton (e.g.) and had relied on him in the past, so he played him. LT knew Crown and Coke and had relied on it in the past, so he drinks it.

  60. godot10 says:

    Ryan:
    G Money,

    I like Lander just like everyone else here.I’m cheering for him too.Unfortunately, I’m forecasting a big downturn in his offensive production.

    Last year he played the dregs and his offensive production at 5v5 was inflated by second assists which is not a repeatable talent.I also think with a new coach and McDavid, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell he gets 2 minutes of PP toi/game.

    You realize the power play was crap before Lander, and near the top of the league with Lander. A power play needs someone to win the faceoff, dig the puck out of the corner, and be a net front presence. Lander is about the only guy on the Oilers who can do all three. Lander plays an entirely different “position” than McDavid on the power play, unless you expect McDavid to be the guy retrieving the puck in the corners and the guy standing in front of the net.

    Lander was critical to driving possession on the power play.

    The Oilers should be able to contruct two really good power play units, each with one of (Lander, Pouliot) and one of (McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins).

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Also, the 2013-14 season… Eakins played Lander with Perron more than any other forward.

    And, played him with RNH and Gagner as much as he played him with Gazdic.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1534&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    There was an effort late in the 2013-14 season to give Lander a push, with skilled players, to test his mettle.

    Lander failed.

    Now, we can argue he wasn’t given PP time and that he was shifted to the wing by Eakins… so that even in his audition with skill he wasn’t given the full candy bar, but how much rope are prospects supposed to be given?

  62. Soup Fascist says:

    RexLibris:

    Marincin was left alone to develop and came along relatively well but was traded because someone in the Oilers’ management got angry when they couldn’t tie the laces on their loafers that morning.

    The biggest problem was Marincin was unable to tie his running shoes at any point in the preseason after consuming copious quantities of the Slovak equivalent of Mom’s perogies and cabbage rolls.

    I hated the demotion to the AHL last year, as even an out of shape Marincin was better than The Captain and Nikita but this was his M.O. in the Oil King years as well. Maybe he had the ability to mature and figure it out, but I think the concerns about MM’s dedication to doing everything he could to make himself a solid NHLer are valid.

    He is pretty young but tough for a leopard to change his spots.

  63. oliveoilers says:

    Soup Fascist: The biggest problem was Marincin was unable to tie his running shoes at any point in the preseason after consuming copious quantities of the Slovak equivalent of perogies and cabbage rolls.

    I hated the demotion to the AHL last year, as even a fat Marincin was better than The Captain and Nikita but this was his M.O. in the Oil King years. Maybe he had the ability to mature and figure it out, but I think the concerns about MM’s dedication to doing everything he could to make himself a solid NHLer are valid.

    He is pretty young but tough for a leopard to change his spots.

    Be extremely careful about assigning the ‘he came into camp out of shape’ narrative to any player from the MacT as GM era. These guys have a crooked ruler for measuring certain player’s sideburns.

    For instance:

    MacT – Nikitin came into camp out of shape.

    NN – I wasn’t out of shape, in fact I was in good shape. I was injured.

    Not just NN, either. Jultz, Marincin, Peckham, Penner.

    There’s a history here.

  64. Lowetide says:

    oilswell: LT, we’ve had some discussions but we have never agreed upon this, and I still disagree earnestly, completely, totally, fundamentally.Drafting is a game played with imperfect information.It just is, it is the draft’s true nature.

    To frame the issue rather starkly, please consider the case of the 6/49 lottery.How would you evaluate a lottery ticket choice the day after the draw?Oh no! Tambellini chose 2 3 13 22 33 42 instead of 2 3 13 22 34 42!What a maroon!Dale Tallon, smartly, chose 34 instead of 33!Or would you say that information gained after the draft lottery is inadmissable in evaluating draft lottery choices?

    I have trouble believing you would willing play the post-hoc rationalization game; it is the game made popular in these parts by Mr. DSF, who would crow about the infallible skill of Bunco champions because, hey,history shows they made correct moves and the only explanation is skill!

    The choices made by drafting teams the day of the draft are just as valid/poor the day after the draft, and 5, 10, and 20 and 10,000 years later.IMO it cannot be any other way, and if you disagree I emplore you to please create a new post explaining your position clearly.Specifically, explain how you think that the information gained after the draft (development history, injury history, death history, etc.) should in any way modify the assessment of the choices made at the draft table made by beings that are unable to see into the future with precision.For bonus points, explain how stock market investors should be evaluated against the stock history 5 years after (you should have bought Apple stock in 2004, you idiot!).

    Sure, we can evaluate players 5 years after the draft because it take that long before the story is told.I remember chiding speeds gently for preferring Voracek over Gagner in that draft.Team A (oilswell) might have a model for how player X, Y, and Z develops post-draft, which leads them to draft player X over player Y in the same position.Team B (speeds) might have a different model leading to player Y over player X.Now we can, absolutely, evaluate whether the model of Team B (boo!) better predicts the future versus the model of Team A (yay!).Doing that is sensible because it compares decision models based on fixed inputs. It is disingenuous to compare team A and B’s models against an ideal model that ranks the draft choices 10 years on based on hindsight.

    If you’re saying “Moroz was selected out of order and that’s a reflection of management” then yes, we agree. If you’re saying “we should always view Moroz through the lens of his draft number” then no, I don’t agree. At some point, we have to agree that while there’s an understanding of the draft day story and its impact, when discussing prospects who have been drafted it’s not beneficial to the conversation to use that as a hammer against the player.

    Two different subjects: Organizational deployment of picks, and player progress.

  65. Soup Fascist says:

    oliveoilers: Be extremely careful about assigning the ‘he came into camp out of shape’ narrative to any player from the MacT as GM era.These guys have a crooked ruler for measuring certain player’s sideburns.

    For instance:

    MacT – Nikitin came into camp out of shape.

    NN – I wasn’t out of shape, in fact I was in good shape.I was injured.

    Not just NN, either.Jultz, Marincin, Peckham, Penner.

    There’s a history here.

    Fair. But I can tell you that Marincin’s off season habits were a concern when he was with the Oil Kings and his first couple Oiler camps. Eakins comments in regards to Marincin were in line with what i had from a very credible person within the Oil Kings.

  66. speeds says:

    oilswell,

    The problem is we don’t see the inputs. When a team does something consensus disagrees with at the time of the draft, all I know is they are doing it for different reasons than those had by the consensus at the time.

    You are right that they could have been right and seen the player either work out or not, or been wrong and seen the player work out or not. And while a pattern of differing from consensus and seeing things work out more often than average doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t just getting lucky, it’s seems like it might be a bit more suggestive that there is something positive they are doing. There may well not be, I understand that, but how much else is there to go on unless you have access to all the internal documents, sit in the scouting meetings, etc?

  67. oliveoilers says:

    Soup Fascist: Fair.But I can tell you that Marincin’s off season habits were a concern when he was with the Oil Kings and his first couple Oiler camps. Eakins comments in regards to Marincin were in line with what i had from a very credible person within the Oil Kings.

    Marty was a Cougar. I question your source’s credibility.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca