THE FOURTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)

By the fourth round, NHL teams are drafting players with an 18.9% chance of playing 100 NHL games. Oilers fourth-round picks who have exceeded 100 games this century: Liam Reddox (100 NHL games), Chris VandeVelde (118 NHL games). The fourth is a weird round for Edmonton, from the legendary Robin Kovar to the emerging Tobias Rieder: Hilarity and heartbreak for Edmonton.

I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round 2008-15. No grand statements on either side, no claims of victory, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft.

In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it (the Cullen grades,18.9% chance for fourth-round selections)

OILERS FOURTH ROUND 2008-2015

  • 2008: Johan Motin (Kevin Lowe)
  • 2009: Kyle Bigos (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2009: Toni Rajala (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2010: Jeremie Blain (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2011: Dillon Simpson (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2011: Tobias Rieder (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2012: Erik Gustafsson (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2013: Jackson Houck (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2013: Kyle Platzer (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2013: Aidan Muir (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2014: William Lagesson (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2014: Zach Nagelvoort (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2015: Caleb Jones (Peter Chiarelli)

The Oilers use the fourth round a lot, that’s 13 selections in eight draft years. The Tambellini era has some nice players, MacT has some trending prospects too and Caleb Jones is just getting started. It’s almost like the fever of the third round breaks, and Edmonton goes back to drafting their list. Seriously. I have no inside information but if you look at the 2011 draft Edmonton’s fourth rounders (Simpson, Rieder) were far better prospects on draft day than the third-round picks (Samu Perhonen, Travis Ewanyk). The goalies, coke machines and stay-at-home defensemen clog the dynamo in the third round.

2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES PLAYED)

  1. Tobias Rieder 72
  2. Johan Motin 1

Reider’s arrival in the NHL is bittersweet. Stu MacGregor was fired for not getting anything out of the depth rounds in the same season the first guy came off the production line. Timing is everything.

ARROWS

  • Productive in Europe: Johan Motin, Toni Rajala
  • “It’s Over” arrows: Kyle Bigos, Jeremie Blain, Jackson Houck
  • Bad arrows:
  • Lukewarm arrows: Aidan Muir, Zach Nagelvoort
  • Good arrows: Dillon Simpson, Erik Gustafsson, Kyle Platzer, William Lagesson
  • Very good arrows: Tobias Rieder
  • New arrows: Caleb Jones

ONE BY ONE

  1. D Johan Motin: A big, stay-at-home defenseman who got into one NHL game before establishing himself in Sweden. One thing we sometimes do is overlook this type of player, or call him a draft bust. Motin, taken in the fourth round, is a productive pro player seven years later and I think it’s incorrect to call him a bust. 38 players chosen after Motin made the NHL, 17 of those players made it to 100 (or more) games.
  2. D Kyle Bigos: Big defenseman with speed issues, Oilers traded him right before losing his rights. As a pro, Bigos (who is a very big man) has played 8 AHL and 102 ECHL games. This is a draft bust, No. 99 overall and 33 players chosen after made the NHL (of that total, only nine have played 100 or more games).
  3. R Toni Rajala: Skilled Finn has scored everywhere they put him, including SM-Liiga, KHL and AHL. MacT released him from his contract, which was probably the humane thing, but I wonder why the organization was so quick to give up on him? The same numbers (33 and nine) for Rajala as Bigos.
  4. D Jeremie Blain: 45 AHL games and 113 ECHL games means he’s better than some but this is a disappointing result for a No. 91 overall pick in a pretty deep draft. A total of 30 players chosen after Blain have played in the NHL.
  5. D Dillon Simpson: A legit NHL prospect, he followed a strong college career with a full AHL season. He’ll need to build on that, and could spend another full year (or more) in the minors, but he has a real chance to be an NHL player. For a fourth-round pick, that’s good value. Of the players chosen after him, 23 have made it to the NHL so far.
  6. R Tobias Rieder: The star of the show among this group, Rieder looks like a player on his way to a long NHL career. He’s a versatile player, has terrific speed, can penalty kill (ask the Oilers!) and it’s a damn shame he isn’t an Oiler. 19 players taken after him have made the NHL, as has Rieder.
  7. D Erik Gustafsson: Two-way defender has been performing well in the SHL since Edmonton drafted him. The Chicago Blackhawks signed Gustafsson and there are some encouraging words from their GM about the possibility of Gustafsson playing in the NHL this coming season. There are nine players chosen after Gustafsson who have played in the NHL.
  8. R Jackson Houck: Big winger didn’t get a contract and is now a free agent. I get the feeling Edmonton wanted him to be a better offensive player, a more rugged player, or both. The Giants changed coaches like crazy while Houck was in Vancouver, I wonder if he recovers in pro. Three players chosen after Houck have played in the NHL.
  9. C Kyle Platzer: He’s probably the best prospect on this list. Two-way center with a good checking reputation, he blossomed offensively after he was drafted. Edmonton may have a useful NHL player in a couple of years if Platzer continues to develop. Three players taken after Platzer have been in the NHL.
  10. L Aidan Muir: It’s so hard to know if a player from an obscure US league is doing well, but the NCAA numbers this past season suggest we’re not looking at an NHL future. Early days, but that’s the arrow intel at this time. Two players have played in the NHL (and were taken after Muir).
  11. D William Lagesson: Green lights everywhere with this prospect, he appears to be a large, mobile defender with two-way ability. He’s off to college now and we’ll get a better view (as we did with Muir) on him.
  12. G Zach Nagelvoort: I refuse to talk about goalies year over year, it’s a riddle wrapped in a smelly glove. He didn’t have a strong season based on his own past, but we wait.
  13. D Caleb Jones: Lordy he looked good at the orientation camp. Mobile, smart, he’s a big man who can make things happen. I’m not sure of his offense, it’s downplayed by the scouting reports but he has a pretty big shot. We’ll see this year, as he plans to play in Portland with the Winterhawks (WHL).

 

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43 Responses to "THE FOURTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)"

  1. Ducey says:

    As I specialize in dumb questions around here…another one:

    Do teams need to worry about the Riley Nash/ Justin Schultz out clause for guys going to college any more?

    I thought they shut it under the new CBA but there seems to be a constant flow of guys (this year – Mike Reilly) who refuse to sign with the team drafting them.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    As I specialize in dumb questions around here…another one:

    Do teams need to worry about the Riley Nash/ Justin Schultz out clause for guys going to college any more?

    I thought they shut it under the new CBA but there seems to be a constant flow of guys (this year – Mike Reilly) who refuse to sign with the team drafting them.

    Nope, it’s still there.

    If a player is drafted out of the CHL the NHL team has 2 years to sign them or else they go back into the draft (if they are not too old, then they become free agents)

    For players drafted outside the CHL, the NHL team has 4 years to sign them or else they become free agents.

    They only change as far I as I see (I could be wrong) is that players signed out of Europe used to have the same two year clock as CHLers, but that has been (correctly) extended.

  3. 719 says:

    In the 4th round Tambellini, MacT and Chiarelli have all made some good bets. Platzer could play for the Oilers one day but I think Simpson will be used in a trade.

  4. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide,

    I like your idea of going with the different bands this year. Love the era as well.

    I don’t know if you’ve picked all your songs yet, or if it’s appropriate to make a suggestion or not, but in this case I can’t help myself. This one’s too perfect.

    From the album “Sad wings of destiny” (1976) The Ripper

    https://youtu.be/lriWlHZAy8A

    I think “Yak The Ripper” has a real nice ring to it.

    A bonus track from the same album for MacT (also, one of their best songs ever)…”Victim of changes”

    https://youtu.be/hDzutIb6p6I

  5. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    steveb12344: Victim of changes

    You. I like you.

    Easily their best song ever. When that 2nd lead solo kicks in, it’s just lush and thick. That was a pretty heavy album for ’74.

    Prefer the studio version though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiN43Vav2LU

    Once she was wonderful…

    As for MacT, I think this song from SWoD is more suited: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1amc2JVWos

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    LT – Just a question: why do you limit this great series to that last year ofLowe’s time as GM?

    – I guess it ends up being a lot of data: but was Lowe any good from 2000-2007 in drafting?

    – You’d have guys from the 2000 draft still in the NHL, or at least a look at the entire history of those drafts: Lombardi, Winchester in 2000, Hemsky 200, Stoll and Greene in 2002…

  7. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    LT – Just a question: why do you limit this great series to that last year ofLowe’s time as GM?

    – I guess it ends up being a lot of data: but was Lowe any good from 2000-2007 in drafting?

    – You’d have guys from the 2000 draft still in the NHL, or at least a look at the entire history of those drafts: Lombardi, Winchester in 2000, Hemsky 200, Stoll and Greene in 2002…

    Maybe I’ll do that next year. It’s not really a large amount more work, although I would have to look and see what Jonas Almtorp is doing. 🙂

  8. Braden88 says:

    I never did understand the Reider for Kesey trade. Man old management was dumb. Probably a lot smarter than me but still…..

    PS: I can’t believe LT make a comment about a goalie prospect without mentioning voodoo. I figuried his computer would have an auto-correct or something to add that in

  9. steveb12344 says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: You. I like you.

    Easily their best song ever. When that 2nd lead solo kicks in, it’s just lush and thick. That was a pretty heavy album for ’74.

    Prefer the studio version though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiN43Vav2LU

    Once she was wonderful…

    As for MacT, I think this song from SWoD is more suited: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1amc2JVWos

    You had me going back to check on the year. Thought maybe the senility was kicking in. It was released in 76 though. (Although some of it was likely written and performed as early as 74, if that’s what you meant.

    I agree on the studio version of VOC too. Just amazing…

    Halford was the “Freddie Mercury” of the Heavy Metal/Hard Rock genre. The guy was born to be a front-man in a metal band. The One and only “Metal God”

  10. Bad Seed says:

    steveb12344,

    Lowetide’s not a metalhead.

    A very underrated Priest tune is Dying to Meet You. A tad mellower but with an undercurrent of menace.

  11. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    steveb12344,

    Aw crap – no, mixing it up with another album.

    Error of 2 years for my memory, means 4% error when adjusted for age – so that’s really not that bad!

  12. theres oil in virginia says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: You. I like you.

    Easily their best song ever. When that 2nd lead solo kicks in, it’s just lush and thick. That was a pretty heavy album for ’74.

    Prefer the studio version though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiN43Vav2LU

    Once she was wonderful…

    As for MacT, I think this song from SWoD is more suited: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1amc2JVWos

    You prefer the studio version over the one performed in SAN BERNARDINO!!?? Heheh.

    Halford freaks me out a little bit, but that was an amazing performance. Thanks for posting that Steve.

  13. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Wouldja blieve it?

  14. theres oil in virginia says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:
    theres oil in virginia,

    Wouldja blieve it?

    I’ll spend tha rest of my life…tha rest of my life…not blievin that now. (Should we carry this further, or will this get us banned?)

  15. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bad Seed:
    steveb12344,

    Lowetide’s not a metalhead.

    A very underrated Priest tune is Dying to Meet You.A tad mellower but with an undercurrent of menace.

    That’s a good one. I’d never heard that before.

  16. steveb12344 says:

    Bad Seed,

    Awesome song. Rocka Rolla was an amazing album as well.

  17. steveb12344 says:

    Anyways, this 4th round looks to have some real promise. (relatively speaking of course, considering that if 3 of this group gets to 100, that would be above average.

    Anyone wanna venture to make an over/under for the amount of NHL games this group will eventually play?

    I’ll take the over on DSF’s number.

  18. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    steveb12344:
    Bad Seed,

    Awesome song.Rocka Rolla was an amazing album as well.

    Yup – aaaaaand it’s from ’74!

    I’m one that dislikes the ‘heavy metal’ tag on these older JP albums – seems closer to classic rock. For me, heavy metal didn’t begin until they learned to hit the front end of their Marshalls with a boost or distortion pedal.

  19. Drew says:

    Braden88:
    I never did understand the Reider for Kesey trade. Man old management was dumb. Probably a lot smarter than me but still…..

    PS: I can’t believe LT make a comment about a goalie prospect without mentioning voodoo. I figuriedhis computer would have an auto-correct or something to add that in

    I can’t comment in general but you are selling yourself way short in comparison to the old management group.
    You are using sentences and punctuation (one spelling error but I am a terrible speller as well) you are far smarter than the old management group. Watching those old interviews was gut wrenchingly difficult.

  20. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Oilers did a real good job turning Reider into 3rd round talent Kale Kessey. Rest of these guys are kinda wimpy and small. I don’t think a single one has been in a back alley brawl with werewolves.

  21. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmS-pztANow

    For your hockey fix – the Can/US final game of the Vancouver Olympics. No play by play or color, only rink mics and 1080p. Crank it up, and it’s like you’re there.

    Man – only five years have passed, and yet there are players here competing at a high level that today, well… Richards, Nieds, Rake.

  22. Rondo says:

    Darnell Nurse ‏@drtwofive 13s13 seconds ago
    Well @KayNurse11 that ones gonna be hard to top…. #stud

    Gold Medal

  23. vishcosity says:

    A dollar late. The story of my Lowetide life.

    SCTV played the Once in a Lifetime video on their set somehow. That was actually how I found TH. I remember watching the movie on a rented tape in probably 86. Haven’t seen it since. The lady had never seen so we just checked it out.

    I remember scenes of Byrne driving a convertible around through central Texas.

    Anyone know what that was?

  24. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
    Oilers did a real good job turning Reider into 3rd round talent Kale Kessey. Rest of these guys are kinda wimpy and small. I don’t think a single one has been in a back alley brawl with werewolves.

    Except the goalie, who lost his glove hand.

  25. franksterra says:

    vishcosity,

    True Stories. John Goodman sang People Like Us

  26. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Except the goalie, who lost his glove hand.

    There actually was a goalie who lost his glove hand. Blackburn played for the Rangers while real young, then had a major injury and couldn’t catch with his glove hand. Played in the AHL with two blockers for a bit but couldn’t make it work.

  27. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    franksterra,

    On SCTV?

  28. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    wheatnoil,

    A goalie for the Habs played with two catching gloves once.

  29. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    wheatnoil,

    #themoreyouknow

  30. Gerta Rauss says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:

    On SCTV?

    I think Vishcosity is describing 2 different things- the SCTV episode and the David Byrne movie True Stories (which I also saw at the Princess btw)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_Stories_(film)

    The SCTV thing might have been with Jerry Todd(Rick Moranis)…he played the occasional “vudeo”

  31. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil: There actually was a goalie who lost his glove hand. Blackburn played for the Rangers while real young, then had a major injury and couldn’t catch with his glove hand. Played in the AHL with two blockers for a bit but couldn’t make it work.

    Years ago, a relative of his used to post asking for updates on the NYR board (iirc). It was sad when he got hurt, we were cheering for him.

  32. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: Maybe I’ll do that next year. It’s not really a large amount more work, although I would have to look and see what Jonas Almtorp is doing.

    Almtorp has had a solid but unspectacular career in the SHL, the only thing truly sticking out is his name that has an air of the 18th century. Just fyi.

  33. vishcosity says:

    True Stories! Totally. Thanks.

    The SCTV thing was different, I remember a guy in a royal blue suit jacket with greased hair. I also remember something about bamboo cabins but that could have been Dr. John. I think it involved him on the actual set while the TH thing was a video.

    For a while I’ve been thinking to change my name to Guy Caballero. I’m an ass surely, but is it really that bad?

  34. vishcosity says:

    Did the oilers first win the lottery in 1979? I don’t know if that’s right.

    Seems like 97 should get something from that year. Regatta de Blanc, Breakfast in America, the Wall, damn the Torpedos, Fear of Music, In Through the Out Door, Unknown Pleasures, and Rust Never Sleeps. It was big deal that 1979.

    EDIT: I missed London Calling. For shame.

  35. judgedrude says:

    Rieder is the Pisani we have been looking for. But, who would have seen that coming:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/08/22/tobias-rieder-first-to-50-since-eberle/

    “Voted second best penalty killer….in a coach’s poll”

  36. G Money says:

    vishcosity:
    Did the oilers first win the lottery in 1979?I don’t know if that’s right.

    Seems like 97 should get something from that year. Regatta de Blanc, Breakfast in America, the Wall, damn the Torpedos, Fear of Music, In Through the Out Door, Unknown Pleasures, and Rust Never Sleeps. It wasbig deal that 1979.

    EDIT:I missed London Calling.For shame.

    Ah, 1979. Grade 9, and my first real exposure to New Wave.

    First I saw Gary Numan, the first time I ever got to watch SNL. “Cars” and “Praying to the Aliens”. So completely different from the old timey rock ‘n’ roll that dominated most of the airwaves (not that that was bad or anything). But New Wave was just so delightlfully new. And unlike Punk, melodic.

    Back then, there was no internet, and Edmonton was enough of a backwater that places like New York (and by extension SNL) truly were cutting edge in comparison.

    After I heard Cars, I had the goddamn song playing in my head for months – but I could not find it anywhere. SO FRUSTRATING!

    A few months later, I was listenging to 630 Ched and I heard that first little synth tone that kicks off the song – and I knew what it was. That first microsecond. Instantly. At last!!

    From there, Talking Heads, B-52s, Peter Gabriel (who’d departed quite heavily from the Genesis direction by 1980) … stuff I can still listen to in a heartbeat today.

    B-52s hold a special place in my heart. Heard that album courtesy of my friend Matt (who was the first of my friends to come out years later) for the first time, with that same sense of newness. And then he and I snuck through his house, my house, and another couple of friends houses, and stole just a tiny bit of liquor out of each bottle, all in one jar. Enough to get a bunch of school kids hammered without their parents (so we thought) being any the wiser. We called it a shit mix, which is accurate.

    Then we went to a Grade 9 dance at the Windsor Park Community Hall and drank that horrible stuff on the merry go round outside. First time drunk.

    Ah. 1979.

  37. ashley says:

    This sounds like the us for the last 8 years:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/toronto-can-put-connor-mcdavid-in-a-leaf-uniform-in-3-years/?ref=yfp

    Coveting other team’s stars. Contriving outlandish scenerios where we secure the talent of other team’s stars. I really hope we are done with “what would you trade for a signed Weber?”.

    Also, wasn’t the Leafs’ chance of winning the lottery less than 10%? When the most probable thing by a wide margin happens, how does that become getting the short end of the stick?

  38. v4ance says:

    http://www.storiesnumberstell.com/hockey-analytics-and-the-problem-of-dissemination-originally-posted-28-march-2015/

    I will argue that the reason hockey analytics have only partially caught on has less to do with the message itself, or an assumed irrationality among some old school hockey fans, than long standing issues related to how messages are disseminated throughout a given society. In other words, the issue is more about the process of spreading information than anything to do with the message itself. However, the issue of dissemination is not simply reducible to “dumbing down” the information so that it becomes easily digestible for the masses. To illustrate this point, I will draw upon the five methods of dissemination found in Friedrich Nietzsche’s Thus Spoke Zarathustra”

    Interesting viewpoint on how analytics will be disseminated and eventually accepted.

  39. barry.moore23 says:

    It’s early in the morning here – just perfect time to play Exciter from Unleashed in the East. Halford – what a voice.

  40. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    G Money: Ah, 1979.Grade 9, and my first real exposure to New Wave.

    First I saw Gary Numan, the first time I ever got to watch SNL.“Cars” and “Praying to the Aliens”.So completely different from the old timey rock ‘n’ roll that dominated most of the airwaves (not that that was bad or anything).But New Wave was just so delightlfully new.And unlike Punk, melodic.

    Back then, there was no internet, and Edmonton was enough of a backwater that places like New York (and by extension SNL) truly were cutting edge in comparison.

    After I heard Cars, I had the goddamn song playing in my head for months – but I could not find it anywhere.SO FRUSTRATING!

    A few months later, I was listenging to 630 Ched and I heard that first little synth tone that kicks off the song – and I knew what it was.That first microsecond.Instantly.At last!!

    From there, Talking Heads, B-52s, Peter Gabriel (who’d departed quite heavily from the Genesis direction by 1980) … stuff I can still listen to in a heartbeat today.

    B-52s hold a special place in my heart.Heard that album courtesy of my friend Matt (who was the first of my friends to come out years later) for the first time, with that same sense of newness.And then he and I snuck through his house, my house, and another couple of friends houses, and stole just a tiny bit of liquor out of each bottle, all in one jar.Enough to get a bunch of school kids hammered without their parents (so we thought) being any the wiser. We called it a shit mix, which is accurate.

    Then we went to a Grade 9 dance at the Windsor Park Community Hall and drank that horrible stuff on the merry go round outside.First time drunk.

    Ah.1979.

    A similar year for me as well. Older brothers were into punk and that turned us onto to it and new wave. For me it was Split Enz that first grabbed my attention, Canada was the first place they broke. They used to hang with Martha and the Muffins and were considered equals at that point. I suppose the Finn brothers might have turned out to be better at writing songs. Shortly after it was Gary Numan that was our go to music.

    We saw him at Kinsman Field House at what was supposed to be his last concert, with The Diodes from TO. An older girl who we thought was drop dead went for a smoke on the concourse (remember those days?) and he was roaming around and bummed one from her and they had a chat. We were so jealous. Only made her more stunning. That was quite an experience.

  41. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    I was younger in 1979 than you, but I do remember B52’s (Rock Lobster in particular) and Breakfast in America playing endlessly on the record player while we played board games and pool at a buddy’s house all summer.

    Foreigner’s Double Vision and Head Games too.

  42. rich says:

    ashley,

    Gee, I guess Stamkos isn’t going to wind up in Toronto then…

  43. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Gerta Rauss: The SCTV thing might have been with Jerry Todd(Rick Moranis)…he played the occasional “vudeo”

    Aside from being a great comedy show, they featured a lot of music on it too:

    The Tubes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPa6WNj82Gs

    Wendy and The Plasmatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRnKnYz3kG0

    I remember when they blew up that car on Tom Snyder’s show – they caved in the ceiling on the floor above.

    Joe Walsh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lBQmyj2QBc

    Jimmy Buffett (don’t remember this one): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNNxgnVN3YY

    Bernadette Peters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQKWn6oPj-c (this one had me crying)

    Carl Perkins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LAZWhFsuWM

    Chilliwack (i think): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaHfWqmC18A

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