THE SIXTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)

The sixth round will forever be a favorite if only because it gifted us Teemu Hartikainen. There’s a 15.8% chance a player chosen in this round plays 100 NHL games—which sounds like ‘why bother?’ but some exceptional players were taken this late. Among Oiler draft picks 2000+ who have played 100 games, we can count no one. The last Oilers selection from the sixth round to play 100 games? Anatoli Semenov, 1989. It’s been awhile.

I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the sixth round 2008-15. No grand statements on either side, no claims of victory, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it (the Cullen grades)

OILERS SIXTH-ROUND PICKS, 2016

  • 2008: Teemu Hartikainen
  • 2010: Brandon Davidson
  • 2010: Drew Czerwonka
  • 2012: John McCarron
  • 2013: Ben Betker
  • 2014: Tyler Vesel
  • 2015: John Marino

I know that no one since 1989 has played 100 games, but there’s some talent here, folks. Hartikainen would have passed 100 games with some luck and a coach who believed in him (imo) and Brandon Davidson is ‘in the range’ of catching on with an NHL team. Young Betker has some buzz around him, but it’s early days for him.

2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES PLAYED)

  1. Teemu Hartikainen 52
  2. Brandon Davidson 12

ARROWS

  • Productive in Europe/AHL: Teemu Hartikainen
  • “It’s Over” arrows: Drew Czerwonka
  • Bad arrows: John McCarron
  • Lukewarm arrows:
  • Good arrows: Brandon Davidson, Ben Betker, Tyler Vesel
  • Very good arrows:
  • New arrows: John Marino

ONE BY ONE

  • L Teemu Hartikainen: Dealt to Toronto in another useless trade, Harski bolted to Russia and has been productive there for two seasons. Now property of Toronto, at 25 he’s young enough to get another NHL shot.
  • D Brandon Davidson: He’s a good hockey player and (I’d guess) about No. 10 on the depth chart for 2015-16. That said, if Edmonton decides to send down Reinhart and Nurse he’d be No. 8 and if someone gets hurt before opening night he’s on the roster. I don’t believe he’s so talented Edmonton will worry over waivers, but that’s not the same as saying he has no value. I cheer for him always.
  • L Drew Czerwonka: As happens so often with prospects, he was injured often during junior and passed on a pro career due to the rigors of the game.
  • R John McCarron: This post is about three weeks early because the news involving McCarron is yet to come. If Edmonton doesn’t sign the big winger before August 15th, he’s a free agent. He’s big, but his point total was halved last season, and that suggests a reduction in playing time/quality of linemates. We wait, but we kind of know.
  • D Ben Betker: Holy crow, he’s big and fast. Saw him at the orientation camp and couldn’t keep my eyes off of him (in a non-weird way). If this young man continues to develop, Edmonton got a steal. Lots of possibilities.
  • F Tyler Vesel: Showed promise in his first NCAA season and it’ll be interesting to see if he can take another step next season. He’s an older prospect (21 in April) so if he spikes Edmonton may bring him out after his sophomore season.
  • D John Marino: Playmaking defender with size, good skater, nice shot. We wait. Looks like he’ll head to the Chicago Steel of the USHL, as per below. You know who played for the Chicago Steel? Troy Hesketh. Le sigh.

 

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32 Responses to "THE SIXTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)"

  1. Younger Oil says:

    The weird thing about this series of articles is that it makes me realize that if you took these groups of players, put them all together, and asked a person to identify which round that group of players came from, it would be nearly impossible to put rounds 3 through 7 in order. They are just so similar in the amount of quality that they got from that round.

    It makes you think how much of a crapshoot drafting in the later rounds can be, but then you look at the 2013 draft class on it’s own which stands head and shoulders above the rest, and you wonder why they just can’t draft like that every year.

  2. regwald says:

    LT, your post refers to the fourth round. Is that the 4th round percentage too ?

  3. McJesus says:

    LT – FYI, you keep copy/pasting the paragraph about the “rational conversation”, and forgetting to change the round and %,

    I second an earlier comment made on an earlier post that looking back further than 2008 would be great! More reliable “success” measurements, and…. Hopefully get to see some gems from the past.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Percentage is correct, forgot to change the round. The chances of getting an NHL player (100 games) in round six is 15.8

  5. RexLibris says:

    Betker v Kanzig could become a Battle of Alberta thing.

    That’d make Messier v Otto look like a fencing match.

    I’d pity the linesmen if that ever came to pass.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    It’s funny how the Oilers do (on balance) seem to correct back to reasonable after the flurry of shit-stupid third round choices.

    ————–

    I’d offer McCarron an AHL deal. I doubt he finds an NHL deal on the open market, but let him try. If he fails… well maybe he prefers to stick with the organization he knows for a minor pro contract?

  7. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    It’s funny how the Oilers do (on balance) seem to correct back to reasonable after the flurry of shit-stupid third round choices.

    ————–

    I’d offer McCarron an AHL deal. I doubt he finds an NHL deal on the open market, but let him try. If he fails… well maybe he prefers to stick with the organization he knows for a minor pro contract?

    Yeah, it’s weird. I’d be prepared to suggest Tambellini buggered up his drafts by insisting on certain players but that’s not provable. McCarron has to be interesting to them, but why not sign him now if they’re interested? WHY, ROM? WHY?

  8. pts2pndr says:

    I have learned more in two months on this site than in the previous 10 years. I believed I knew hockey and the more I read here the more I realize how much I have to learn. While I understand stats are not infallible at least they are an objective measurement tool! Thank you!

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    Still 4th round? Be interesting what’s coming tomorrow. The Oilers had to ignore everyone’ advice, from any source, and pick from the untalented misfit list. No one can be this bad without deliberately trying to be this bad. The Mackenzie had his list out for years and even his enemies say it’s the number one list out for accuracy. The Oilers didn’t understand how to draft. A simple rule to follow. “Big men that skate vey well don’t exist beyond the top 50. Buyer beware.”

  10. geowal says:

    Richard S.S.: Mackenzie had his list out for years and even his enemies say it’s the number one list out for accuracy

    I don’t think there’s usually much available for Mackenzie picks in the sixth round, so not sure that applies here. Could be wrong.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, it’s weird. I’d be prepared to suggest Tambellini buggered up his drafts by insisting on certain players but that’s not provable.

    It’s more like in rounds 2 and 3 (especially 3) they lost the list and let the angriest scout make the picks, but found the list again in rounds 4-7.

    Rounds 4-7 over this period looks like a lot of reasonable bets (again, on balance).

    Lowetide: McCarron has to be interesting to them, but why not sign him now if they’re interested? WHY, ROM? WHY?

    My guess is they aren’t interested in offering him an NHL contract.

    So, they’ll let him try free agency (can they simply release him, or let him talk to other teams? maybe that would send the wrong message to the player?)

    BUT… if he can’t find work, they like him enough to offer him an AHL contract?

    something like that?

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: He’s big, but his point total was halved last season, and that suggests a reduction in playing time/quality of linemates.

    It is somewhat encouraging that he did manage to lead his team in shots on goal.

    http://collegehockeystats.net/1415/teamstats/corm

    His 93 shots on goal is good, not great.

    Eichel had 168.

    On the PP… last year he had 2 PP goals. This year… the same.

  13. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide:

    Thank You.

    geowal

    The Mackenzie List lasts maybe two rounds. There are other very effective lists that go deeper, they didn’t use those either. I talk The Mackenzie List because the Oiler sometimes had difficulty drafting in the first round as well as all others.

  14. stush18 says:

    Not to be an asshat LT, but you marked Liam coughlin down as an “it’s over arrow”, because he was traded. Technically, reider, Gustafson, harti, etc should get the same arrows.

    Liam should get not good arrows, it’s not over yet.

    Again just being an ass-hat! Haha

  15. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Richard S.S.: A simple rule to follow. “Big men that skate vey well don’t exist beyond the top 50. Buyer beware.”

    Unless they’re named Ben Betker. Like LT I was fascinated by this guy at summer camp & was very impressed by the upgrade in his mobility. He’s a guy I’ve watched with interest right from his first camp 2 years ago — at 6’6 he’s impossible to miss — and I’ve always been impressed by his attitude & approach. He’s still very much a project, but there is zero-point-zero reason to not anticipate continuing improvement. His skating has come a long way, still needs work on agility but straight ahead speed is impressive, and his hands are OK-ish. He’s making some progress in the fine art of leaning on people, as much as one can tell from the 4-on-4 format that doesn’t do any favours to huge guys like him, or McCarron for that matter.

    Put a mean streak on this guy and he’s kinda like a 20-year-old Andy Sutton in terms of raw tools.

  16. Gerta Rauss says:

    pts2pndr: I have learned more in two months on this site than in the previous 10 years. I believed I knew hockey and the more I read here the more I realize how much I have to learn.

    Once you understand that the soft parade is not a Doors album, the rest is downhill.

    That’s where it started for me

  17. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Not to be an asshat LT, but you marked Liam coughlin down as an “it’s over arrow”, because he was traded. Technically, reider, Gustafson, harti, etc should get the same arrows.

    Liam should get not good arrows, it’s not over yet.

    Again just being an ass-hat! Haha

    Good point and agreed. But where do I put him? Lukewarm arrows?

  18. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Lowetide,

    I think he fits under never-weres. Right alongside the goalies and Moroz.

  19. stush18 says:

    Lowetide,

    The “got something useful out a walkabout selection” arrow?

    Seems we could have something for that.

  20. AsiaOil says:

    Yeah I’m hoping Davidson can still be with us through this year as well and somehow get 40 NHL games. We will be needing a cheap contract like his on the 3rd pair as soon as next year – those guys are actually really important when the cap crunch hits.

  21. theres oil in virginia says:

    That’s an awesome picture, LT.

  22. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Unless they’re named Ben Betker. Like LT I was fascinated by this guy at summer camp & was very impressed by the upgrade in his mobility. He’s a guy I’ve watched with interest right from his first camp 2 years ago — at 6’6 he’s impossible to miss — and I’ve always been impressed by his attitude & approach. He’s still very much a project, but there is zero-point-zero reason to not anticipate continuing improvement. His skating has come a long way, still needs work on agility but straight ahead speed is impressive, and his hands are OK-ish. He’s making some progress in the fine art of leaning on people, as much as one can tell from the 4-on-4 format that doesn’t do any favours to huge guys like him, or McCarron for that matter.

    Put a mean streak on this guy and he’s kinda like a 20-year-old Andy Sutton in terms of raw tools.

    Think the Sutton-in-Ashfield comparison is spot on, though Sutton-in-Ashfield occasionally flashed the magic hands, what with the dangles and dipsy – doodles.

  23. Pretendergast says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    That’s an awesome picture, LT.

    Beautiful. Harski’s got that sass fator. Looks like he’s saying “oh ya think so hey? That was a big boy call you made right there, you’re sooo smart.”

  24. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    That’s an awesome picture, LT.

    Rob Ferguson, he’s exceptional.

  25. Snowman says:

    Pretendergast,

    Ha he definitely doesn’t look like he’s asking that ref how his mother is doing, at least not in a civil context.

  26. Hammers says:

    Funny about some Euros ,they make better money over there than the AHL , actually some Canucks as well but many bail early no matter where there from. Hartski was one I thought would make it and it does go to show how a bit of luck plays into players careers . I guess we can’t blame players like Hartski or Tuebert for making a decent living for five or ten years but I have always wondered where AHL players salaries actually get to and I’m not including players sent down on larger contracts as that’s paid by there NHL teams . Anybody that knows maybe pass it on but I always guessed $100 grand was the upper and $40 the lower . Thanks if you know.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Funny about some Euros ,they make better money over there than the AHL , actually some Canucks as well but many bail early no matter where there from. Hartski was one I thought would make it and it does go to show how a bit of luck plays into players careers .I guess we can’t blame players like Hartski or Tuebert for making a decent living for five or ten years but I have always wondered where AHL players salaries actually get to and I’m not including players sent down on larger contracts as that’s paid by there NHL teams . Anybody that knows maybe pass it on but I always guessed $100 grand was the upper and $40 the lower . Thanks if you know.

    Harder to get now, but last year’s AHL salaries are contained here

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/22/barons-bucks/

  28. Snowman says:

    Hammers,

    I briefly looked at that a while back and I found that the high end of the lower salaries was about 200k and the low end was 55-65k. Everything higher was starting to get into the 500k-1M range that the NHL prospects get paid.

    Makes me laugh kind of. I went to university worked hard got a good job and I started less than most of those kids make. I’d party myself silly as a 20 year old making 100K. Seriously. It’s a wonder to me that the young millionaire high draft pick NHLers don’t die. I wouldn’t make it to the second year of my contract if I was Nuge or Ebs or Hall as a 20 year old making 6M.

  29. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s a good article LT. That’s life advice in the truest form.

    Boring is waiting for you.

    I hope parents are hammering that home to their kids every damn day.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Once you understand that the soft parade is not a Doors album, the rest is downhill.

    That’s where it started for me

    Funny. Waiting For The Sun IS a Doors Album.

    It’s where it started for me.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Snowman: Boring is waiting for you.
    I hope parents are hammering that home to their kids every damn day.

    Why should they?

    If it’s inevitable, they’re soon going to find out for themselves.

    Parents should shut up and go to work, put a roof over the kid’s heads with food and stfu about so many things.

  32. Jordan says:

    I love that picture of Harski you lead off with. Such a great expression combining elements of surprise, disblief, curiosity and entertainment.

    Glad he is doing well for himself, and that he’s making his way for himself. Dissapointed it won’t be in an Oilers uniform – Oilers and finns go together like sharks and tornadoes.

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