RE 15-16 CONNOR MCDAVID: TAKE ME TO THE RIVER

It’s important to remember the moment, to hold it in your mind’s eye. The release, the adrenalin, the pure joy, the absolute majesty of the moment. The card, the turn, the cracking voice, the elation for us and the death rattle for every other fan base in the NHL. Music! Music! Oh my GOD, MUSIC! Hold on to it. Forever. It’s a big one. Never let anyone tell you differently.

RE 15-16: 70GP, 23-39-62 .886

  1. How did you reach the RE total? I took his NHLE (82GP, 23-40-63 .768) walked it back to 70 games (he has missed some time to injury), and then walked it forward based on what we know about really gifted players and their jumping projected NHLE’s.
  2. Yeah, looks like you slapped 70 games on his NHLE. I know, it’s galling, makes it look like I barely looked at it.
  3. Well, you’re busy with the dog and that two-hour radio show. Oh screw off, I actually looked at this for awhile. Patrick Kane’s NHLE was a guideline but he passed it by 10 points. McDavid’s RE, if taken over 82 games, exceeds his NHLE by 10 points.
  4. God. Worthless! Why don’t you just count the number of times your dog barks in a day? Same predictive power. Alright smart ass, what’s a good number?
  5. 97 points. Okay, we’re done.
  6. Don’t blame me when people remind you of my prediction next spring. Noted.
  7. It should be higher. One of the problems I have with hanging a higher number on McDavid (if he played 82 games and scored at the rate I’m projecting, he’d post 73 points) is the quality of the team around him. The forwards are fine, in fact very good, but the defense is poor and McDavid will be on the ice with some clunkers as things stand. Kane’s defensemen in his rookie season? Duncan Keith, Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Seabrook, James Wisniewski, Brent Sopel, Cam Barker. There are some good passers and puck movers in the group. Edmonton’s issues with passing tape to tape and hitting the exiting forward on the fly are legend, so projecting McDavid—even as I did—could be too strong. We’ll see, he’s a tough projection because he is so very talented.
  8. Let’s go back to last year. Who were his wingers in junior? Brock Otten from OHL Prospects tells us Alex Debrincat all year, and then Nick Betz and eventually Remi Elie (post trade) saw time as the other wing.
  9. What kind of players are they? Alex Debrincat is ‘the little engine that could’ accoring to Otten, a small, skilled whirlwind who scored 104 points last season. Draft eligible 2016.
  10. Betz? Nick Betz is a mountain on skates, 6.04 and 220. Good on the forecheck and rattles bones. Not a great skater but he’s good enough to have a pro career.
  11. Elie? Skilled offensive player with size and speed, aggressive. A very nice player, Dallas draft pick.
  12. Who will be his wingers? I’d guess he’ll spend time with Hall, Pouliot among LW’s and Eberle, Purcell, Korpikoski and the cast of Annie on RW.
  13. Opening night? It’s in St. Louis, so I’ll guess Hall—Eberle, but it might be Hall—Korpikoski.
  14. They need to shelter McDavid. On the road? Against a very good team like St. Louis? HOW?
  15. Put him with Hendricks and Purcell. Get real. Good grief, you WON THE LOTTERY! Why put a denver boot on your brand new race car? It makes zero sense.
  16. And yet no McDavid—Yakupov. Race car drivers always have safety belts, McDavid and Yakupov opening night St. Louis could have matching -3’s in a quick hurry.
  17. No Hall—Yakupov? I think McLellan will run Hall—McDavid and Pouliot—Nuge and then slide Eberle up and down the 1-2. I’ve based the RE on it.
  18. So, no top 2line minutes for Yakupov? Maybe McLellan goes Hall—McDavid—Eberle and Pouliot—Nuge—Yakupov but I don’t think he’ll do that, at least to start the season. Chiarelli brought Korpikoski in for some reason, suspect it’s to have another veteran winger to run up and down the depth chart.
  19. What about a 3line of McDavid—Yakupov and a veteran? I think that’s asking a lot of McDavid to be honest, no matter the veteran winger. Nail is not the most structured player without the puck.
  20. Who would be the perfect RW for McDavid next season? Marian Hossa.
  21. If your only choices for RW on McDavid’s line are Yakupov or Purcell, who do you choose? Purcell.
  22. WHY? Two-way forwards, veterans if you have them. McDavid will get a two-way forward and a pure skill winger with experience, my guess being Taylor Hall. Yakupov should have had that from day one.
  23. You’re saying McLellan will NEVER play McDavid with Yakupov? I’m saying that’s my guess.
  24. Purcell is slow and he’s not a two-way player. He’s a veteran with soft hands who knows which way the wind blows. Veterans with opportunity are going to work hard to maximize it. I suspect he’s lifting Buicks as we speak. He’s 29 years old and with some good luck and chemistry, Purcell could be looking at another nice pay day.
  25. He’ll never make $4.5 million again. No, but if he comes in, finds some chemistry on a skill line with a great center (Oilers have a lot of them) and gets on the PP enough, he could cash nicely.
  26. Bah! Who did Yak play most with as a rookie? Sam Gagner and Magnus Paajarvi. I wonder if they’ll go into the Hall of Fame together.
  27. How many guys play RW on your RE? Seven.
  28. And Draisaitl? Leave it. We’ll get there.
  29. Does McDavid win the Calder? I think he will.
  30. Does McDavid have a weakness? I think there are two things we’ll be discussing next summer: Injuries (or lack of) and his shooting ability/effectiveness. I think he has a quick release and in close he’s money (so, so fast) but we’re not looking at a guy who can snipe from 20 feet. As he matures (much like Nuge and what we discussed yesterday) I’m sure McDavid will improve in this area. Most of these guys, Crosby included, are manic about improvement so he’s probably already bashing in his Dad’s garage door as we speak.
  31. And the injury? Hall played 79% of the schedule as a rookie, Nuge played 76%. Yak played them all but he was at a different spot in the batting order and is built like a Mack truck. We should be prepared for some games lost due to injury.
  32. Nuge’s injury was a fluke! Teenagers in a man’s league. It’s an issue, that’s my only point. I’m not suggesting bubble wrap.
  33. And still no quarter on McDavid—Yakupov? Look, you don’t need to be concerned with my opinion, Todd McLellan will make the call. Maybe those two men play in the Joey Moss, rattle and hum and play their careers together. That’s a beautiful thought, I’m just not able to see it from here. Todd McLellan is very good at unlocking skill, betting against a spike for Yakupov is a bad idea for next season. I just don’t see Yak as part of the McDavid story, this season.
  34. Is there a free agent you’d like to see added for the express purpose of Hall—McDavid? I mentioned Curtis Glencross awhile back, he might fit. Good speed, two-way ability and enough skill to cash some goals.
  35. Not long to go now. Every day feels like forever. What does it say about us? It’s summer, beautiful day piled upon beautiful day and the city of Edmonton is hoping the gales of November come early.
  36. Why this song? Very spiritual, about awakening, a new beginning. Casting aside vices, false saviours and failed attempts to find happiness, finding it right in front of you, all around you, having it literally fall upon you like manna from heaven. Best. Take me to river, indeed.

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129 Responses to "RE 15-16 CONNOR MCDAVID: TAKE ME TO THE RIVER"

  1. Lowetide says:

    10 this morning, TSN1260. Fluid because Lou. Dennis King 10:05, Chris O’Leary from the EJ at 11:05 Past that? I’ll let you know. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter.

  2. zatch says:

    OK, LT, fair play, this is on the very lower side of what I deem remotely acceptable. I think you’re completely wrong for reasons I have outlined in a previous post. I think we’ll get more than 70 out of him (I really do. I’m hopeful for 75 at least) and he’ll produce more points. Crosby’s supporting cast was dismal in his rookie season and he did alright.

    You won’t budge me on this, so I look forward to the inevitable Guess the McDavid Points pool and the happy I Told You So which you won’t begrudge me if he can get to 85 points, I’m sure.

    What did Mrs. Lowetide say?!?!

  3. russ99 says:

    Great song pick for McJesus!

    That’s a reasonable RE, but I bet he’ll pass it.

    Don’t rain on my “EA Sports” line of Hall – McDavid – Yakupov, at least at home and after Pouliot – RNH – Eberle ran a solid sortie against the toughs.

    I can’t tell if the ideal of having a heavy on each of the top 2 lines would be helpful or just an excuse to continue to shoehorn Draisaitl and Yak into a third scoring line.

    BTW – that’s MacT’s ideal, but not necessarily McLellan’s strategy when he coached the Sharks.

    At some point we’re going to need six 2-way forwards to handle the tough sledding in the West, especially on the road, so why not this year?

  4. Lowetide says:

    zatch:
    OK, LT, fair play, this is on the very lower side of what I deem remotely acceptable. I think you’re completely wrong for reasons I have outlined in a previous post. I think we’ll get more than 70 out of him (I really do. I’m hopeful for 75 at least) and he’ll produce more points. Crosby’s supporting cast was dismal in his rookie season and he did alright.

    You won’t budge me on this, so I look forward to the inevitable Guess the McDavid Points pool and the happy I Told You So which you won’t begrudge me if he can get to 85 points, I’m sure.

    What did Mrs. Lowetide say?!?!

    You’re saying he gets 75 points in 70 games?

  5. dustrock says:

    If Hall pushes the river every night, then lets hope Edmonton doesn’t get tired of Connor “Moses” McDavid parting the Red Sea.

  6. zatch says:

    Lowetide,

    Sorry, 75 games. Where I expect him to pull 72 points.

  7. Lowetide says:

    zatch:
    Lowetide,

    Sorry, 75 games. Where I expect him to pull 72 points.

    So, your estimate is .960 points a game and mine is .886. We differ by six points over 82 games, which is (I’m no expert) probably ‘in the range’ of similar. Or close.

  8. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    But did Mrs. Lowetide think you were being too optimistic or too pessimistic about The Future?

  9. Ducey says:

    So, last year the Oilers top four scorers got 191 pts. One had 60+ pts.

    This year, LT has the Oilers top four scorers projected to get 266 pts. So far, 4 will have 60+ points.

    They have not really lost any point getters. Assuming Pouliot is healthy and gets a few more, Yak improves a little, Sekera has more points than Petry, and Lander plays a full season, that’s a lot of extra points.

    LT, do you have the Oilers making up their entire -83 goal differential in one year?

    That seems a tad optimistic. Perhaps “best case scenario.”

  10. Lowetide says:

    Snowman:
    Lowetide,

    But did Mrs. Lowetide think you were being too optimistic or too pessimistic about The Future?

    She had McDavid at a point per game.

  11. Eastern Oil says:

    LT, you’re way off!

    Here’s how I see his RE playing out:

    RE 15-16: 72GP, Cures Cancer-Saves 10 kittens from fire-Beat Trump for GOP Ticket, .902.

    Thank you.

  12. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    HA! Nice. I love that.

    I think you’re in the range of reasonable but I really would be ecstatic if Mrs. LT was closer.

  13. Factotum says:

    The first time I ever saw Talking Heads, they played this song on SNL (1978 I think). It was a revelation, man. A revelation. I’ll never forget it.

  14. smellyglove says:

    Ducey:
    So, last year the Oilers top four scorers got 191 pts.One had 60+ pts.

    This year, LT has the Oilers top four scorers projected to get 266 pts. So far, 4 will have 60+ points.

    They have not really lost any point getters.Assuming Pouliot is healthy and gets a few more, Yak improves a little, Sekera has more points than Petry, and Lander plays a full season, that’s a lot of extra points.

    LT, do you have the Oilers making up their entire -83 goal differential in one year?

    That seems a tad optimistic. Perhaps “best case scenario.”

    Ducey,

    Exactly. I’m calling it–only 1-2 Oilers player will crack 60 points.

  15. Braden88 says:

    I think a reminder is in order here. A reminder that its not a good plan to put expectation on a rookie, no matter the rookie. This series is “reasonable” expectations. We are projecting, not planning. For this reason, i still believe the best approach is to give the kid the best opportunity to adapte to the NHL. Pouliot and Purcell make the most sense to me. Youve got the world killers line of Hall-Nuge-Eberle. that line can go all night everynight. Suddenly, now you’ve got McDavid, not having to face top opposition and he’s got 2 skilled and defensively responsible wingers. On top of that, veterans!Music to my ears! in my opinions, saying purcell is too slow to keep up is splitting hairs in comparison.

    As an aside, I can’t wait for the Yak RE. I think LT touched on a much larger Yak problem here. Todd Mac’s got 1 season to make this kid work, otherwise I highly doubt we are doing an RE on him next year, if you know what i mean.

  16. zatch says:

    Lowetide,

    I like her. She seems clever and wise and careful in thought.

  17. Braden88 says:

    czar,

    Someone should of told Shanny that Kevin Lowe was available

    Zing!

  18. Snowman says:

    Ducey:
    So, last year the Oilers top four scorers got 191 pts.One had 60+ pts.

    This year, LT has the Oilers top four scorers projected to get 266 pts. So far, 4 will have 60+ points.

    They have not really lost any point getters.Assuming Pouliot is healthy and gets a few more, Yak improves a little, Sekera has more points than Petry, and Lander plays a full season, that’s a lot of extra points.

    LT, do you have the Oilers making up their entire -83 goal differential in one year?

    That seems a tad optimistic. Perhaps “best case scenario.”

    Just take a step back.

    Hall will score more than 60 if healthy. Eberle will score 60 because he’s like clockwork. Nuge had 56 last year so its not a stretch to think he’ll score 60 and if you think Mcdavid puts up 60 it is pretty easy to imagine 4 Oilers with 60 points.

    I think its reasonable to think that Hall-Nuge and Mcdavid might put up 70 each. It’s not impossible and I don’t even really think its that unlikely to have 3 Oilers in the 70s this year.

  19. czar says:

    Braden88,

    Huzzah!!

  20. Pechetr says:

    Who plays on McJeebus’ wing when Taylor Hall is out for 20 games with a leg injury?

  21. Snowman says:

    Braden88:

    As an aside, I can’t wait for the Yak RE. I think LT touched on a much larger Yak problem here. Todd Mac’s got 1 season to make this kid work, otherwise I highly doubt we are doing an RE on him next year, if you know what i mean.

    Because Yak will get an Unreasonable Expecation blog post? Or because LT will forget to do Yak’s post completely?

  22. Магия 10 says:

    czar:
    WTF? Lou on the move.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lou-lamoriello-named-new-maple-leafs-gm/

    Sam Pollock wasn’t available.

    Markham did not apply for an expansion franchise. Imagine Lou on that file.

  23. Hammers says:

    Tend to agree with your wife , point per game played plus. The plus being the hard part. The real story will be who he plays with and I won’t be surprised to see Pouliot and Purcell the first game .

  24. Ducey says:

    Snowman: . I think its reasonable to think that Hall-Nuge and Mcdavid might put up 70 each. It’s not impossible and I don’t even really think its that unlikely to have 3 Oilers in the 70s this year.

    Only 19 players in the league had 70+ points last year.

    Its possible, just not likely.

    Similarly, you just don’t see many teams erasing a -83 goal differential in one year. Could it happen? Sure. Its just not likely.

  25. Hammers says:

    I would leave Poliot ,Nuge , Ebs together for home games and see no reason why Hall ,Yak couldn’t play with MvDavid in home games . He will play with more than 1 or 2 combinations maybe as many as 5-6 .

  26. Магия 10 says:

    “John Shannon ✔@JSportsnet
    The Maple Leafs will have to compensate the Devils with a draft pick for signing Lou Lamoriello as GM.”

    On second thought maybe we should have waited on that pick to the Sharks.

  27. Snowman says:

    Ducey,

    Until the scoring rate stays low for a few years consecutively I don’t think you should just assume that’s the new norm. I expect this year for scoring league wide will normalize somewhat.

    I didn’t say anything about erasing the goal differential and if you get league average goaltending you’ve got to think a lot of the goal differential gets erased just by that.

    Who out of Hall, Nuge, Ebs or CMD do you not like to score 60? And who out of those 3 do you think its very unreasonable to think could hit 70 if healthy?

  28. judgedrude says:

    So, LT is basically predicting that he will have a rookie year comparable to Nuge, but with less games missed. Interesting. Hopefully he wins the Calder where it was stolen from Nuge.

  29. Hammers says:

    McDavid could help a bunch of players with games played together . Yak , Purcell , hall, Lander, Ebs ,Poliot all will get some oh yea Korpokoski as well

  30. wheatnoil says:

    Ducey: Only 19 players in the league had 70+ points last year.

    Its possible, just not likely.

    I looked at this briefly, thinking it was unlikely that any team recently had 3 players with 70+ points. I didn’t have to go back far.

    McLellan’s Sharks had 3 players with 70+ points 2 seasons ago. Thornton, Marleau & Pavelski.

  31. PaperKurtRussell says:

    LT, do you really think that it’s written in stone that Connor plays at C all year? Given that we have a new regime in place, I think it’s at least a possibility that he lines up at wing. Look at Seguin or Galchenyuk as recent examples, or even players in SJ. That opens up some interesting possibilities like 97 and 93 on the same line, for example.

  32. oilfan9911 says:

    Ducey:
    So, last year the Oilers top four scorers got 191 pts.One had 60+ pts.

    This year, LT has the Oilers top four scorers projected to get 266 pts. So far, 4 will have 60+ points.

    They have not really lost any point getters.Assuming Pouliot is healthy and gets a few more, Yak improves a little, Sekera has more points than Petry, and Lander plays a full season, that’s a lot of extra points.

    LT, do you have the Oilers making up their entire -83 goal differential in one year?

    That seems a tad optimistic. Perhaps “best case scenario.”

    You’re forgetting the garbage fire that was the Oilers goaltending last season. Getting a .915 sv% would be around a 60 goal swing to the good. Toss in McJesus, the Nuge making The Leap, Hall likely putting up better numbers and a year of Anton Lander who’s figured it out … It’s not at all unreasonable to think the negative goal differential would be wiped out.

  33. Ducey says:

    oilfan9911: You’re forgetting the garbage fire that was the Oilers goaltending last season. Getting a .915 sv% would be around a 60 goal swing to the good. Toss in McJesus, the Nuge making The Leap, Hall likely putting up better numbers and a year of Anton Lander who’s figured it out … It’s not at all unreasonable to think the negative goal differential would be wiped out.

    This is how Charlie Brown probably rationalizes taking one more kick at the football.

    Every off season we convince ourselves the Oilers will be better.

    Better goalie improves the goal differential by 60, the team scores an extra 70. All of a sudden its easy to project a + 50 goal differential rather than -83.

    I am not going there.

    I WILL NOT BE SUCKED IN AGAIN 🙂

  34. Sugar Reijo says:

    I know any fan of any franchise would feel the same way, but damn McDreamy looks right in our uniform.

  35. Pastor of Disaster says:

    Factotum,

    Same story, except I saw it via an SNL boxset in 2002, rather than live. Over twenty years later, and it had lost none of its captivating originality and power. I hope we will be saying the same about McDavid in twenty years too. Brilliant song for a brilliant player.

  36. PhrankLee says:

    Nice post, LT. I have him at 60 too.

    I don’t think durability will be an issue.

    I think his fight-injured hand was merely him feeling his oats and it went turkey.

  37. godot10 says:

    russ99:
    Great song pick for McJesus!

    I suppose the Romans “taking him to the river” and waterboarding him before drowing him is about the same as nailing him to a tree with spikes and letting him suffocate to death.

  38. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ha! Dogbarks/24. Love it.

  39. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    If Hall pushes the river every night, then lets hope Edmonton doesn’t get tired of Connor “Moses” McDavid parting the Red Sea.

    Moses never made it to the “Promised Land”.

  40. haters says:

    LT.
    Great article. I’ve been reading a lot of line combos that feature Hall CM and Yak and I just don’t see it working. Call me old school but I think your top 2-3 lines need balance to work effectively. Playmaker-sniper/speedster-power forward/speedster. In the case of the poo/ebs/nuge line the speedster playmaker were the same person(nuge).
    No one wants to see that line broken up because they see the value in a balanced line (finally)…

    I love Yak. Love his attitude, compete and fiestyness. I just don’t see a spot for him on this team… If it were up to me I’d showcase him on the first line and pray he racks some early points up and trade him for a up and coming power forward. (And hate every bit of it) IMO

  41. godot10 says:

    Pechetr:
    Who plays on McJeebus’ wing when Taylor Hall is out for 20 games with a leg injury?

    That’s when you bring up Draisaitl from the AHL to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle, and drop Pouliot into Hall’s spot on the left side with McDavid.

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    I love the conservative approach so many are taking in regards to McDavid. It really speaks to how this community rallies around and protects these young phenoms. Edmonton is a wonderful environment for these kids to learn, grow and prosper.

    Thus a conservative RE is akin to teaching your son to drive and not expecting Michael Schumacher performance from Day 1.

    That said, we are also consistently underrating the impact of the generational player. McDavid will blow that RE out of the water because these players redefine what is ‘reasonable’ on their way towards defining a new normal.

    In all likelihood, what we’ll experience is McDavid lighting up this league for 10 games off the hop and then coaches and teams quickly adjusting tactics to gameplan specifically for him.

    His speed is ’11’ on a ’10’ skill. He’s the fastest car on the track. He’s Randy Moss on skates. You can’t stop him. The best you can hope for is to contain him and mitigate the damage.

  43. maudite says:

    How many more games get decided in OT 3 on 3?

    There are going to be a pretty solid new chunk of points out there up for grabs by your top 6 forwards.

  44. B S says:

    54 points in 61 games as he gets hit from behind, lands on his shoulder and requires season ending shoulder surgery, easiest bet as an oilers fan.

    I think the most interesting thing part of this season will be seeing how the league keeps him (or Nurse on the outside chance he sticks on the team) from winning the Calder. Obscure rules regarding players who entered major junior a year early AND play a forward, rather than defense role and being drafted into the Western Conference? Disqualification for failing the first urine sample taken in league history, testing positive for Tylenol?

    My money is on season ending injury halfway through the season on a hit to the head (that goes uncalled and unsuspended, but I like to believe Hall will get a 2 game suspension for kneeing the SOB later in the game). And missing out on the Calder despite have 3 more points than the next highest rookie scorer (53 in 40 games, with 25 goals), because Dylan Strome “played almost a whole season and that’s hard to do”.

  45. misfit says:

    Reasonable expectation or guarded expectation? Come on LT, dive in head first and let yourself get excited here!

    100 points, Art Ross, Hart, Calder, and 2nd place in Norris voting (behind Schultz) just because!

  46. jonrmcleod says:

    Pastor of Disaster,

    I’m curious. Are you actually a pastor of a church?

  47. hunter1909 says:

    Reasonable Expectations: When President Trump invites Connor McDavid’s Oilers to visit him at the White House.

  48. hunter1909 says:

    “They’re winners. I like winners.” President Trump

  49. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    hunter1909:
    Reasonable Expectations: When President Trump invites Connor McDavid’s Oilers to visit him at the White House.

    Aaaaand – thread.

  50. jonrmcleod says:

    hunter1909,

    Do Canadian teams get invited to the White House?

  51. RexLibris says:

    hunter1909:
    Reasonable Expectations: When President Trump invites Connor McDavid’s Oilers to visit him at the White House.

    Impossible.

    He’ll have declared war on Soviet Canuckistan by then and I don’t see him inviting citizens of a foreign belligerent nation to the White House.

  52. grim.oil says:

    Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
    Hall—McDavid—Draisaitl
    Korpi—Lander—Yakupov
    Hendricks—Letestu—Klinkhammer

    Book it!

  53. RexLibris says:

    jonrmcleod:
    hunter1909,

    Do Canadian teams get invited to the White House?

    A British team once gate crashed the White House. Had a history-making house party there, literally brought the place down.

    201st anniversary of that house party happens this August 24th.

  54. Ducey says:

    hunter1909: Reasonable Expectations: When President Trump invites Connor McDavid’s Oilers to visit him at the White House.

    No, no. Canadian teams don’t get invited to the White House.

    Elizabeth May will invite the Cup winning Oilers to 24 Sussex Drive.

  55. dustrock says:

    godot10: Moses never made it to the “Promised Land”.

    Ha ha nice. I’m happy to get out of Egypt at this point.,

  56. Pastor of Disaster says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Yessir… ever hear of Clyde, Alberta? Hometown of Habs draft pick Brent Bilodeau? Preferred outdoor rink of Kyle Chipchura? No? Neither has anyone else. But I pastor there, yes.

  57. zatch says:

    LT, my beef with this remains that that PPG has him in the comapny of guys liek Bobby Ryan, Anze Kopitar, Patrick Kane and Paul Stasny.

    Not Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin, where he should be.

    As has been noted, unless we see consistent decrease in point totals, last year’s numbers are meaningless (golly gee, I looked it up, and the year before last ahd HIGHER numbers. It’s almost like (holy crap) the point leaders totals on a year to year basis are hard to predict and subject to some randomness).

  58. dannyboy says:

    i think that into the Christmas break, with the Oilers near top of the standings we will be hearing alot of how this team was an explosion waiting to happen. with all the talent we had acquired over the years starting with hall until now. they’ll say that it was bound to happen.
    this team has a chance to do something that hasnt been done in hockey in 30 years. sure mcdavid has yet to play a game, our defense hasnt improved much. i dont believe it, we are out from under the oild boys club, we have arguably the best player in the game with a supporting cast of 3 first overall draft picks, not to mention several other high choices, who else can say that?

    am i overly optimistic? perhaps.

    another coffee and baileys? yes please (im camping in penticton)

    these are exciting times to be an oilers fan

    Love these series LT, the debates between yourself make me chuckle

  59. Gret99zky says:

    I like the under promise, over deliver approach.

  60. GCW_69 says:

    Snowman: Just take a step back.

    Hall will score more than 60 if healthy. Eberle will score 60 because he’s like clockwork. Nuge had 56 last year so its not a stretch to think he’ll score 60 and if you think Mcdavid puts up 60 it is pretty easy to imagine 4 Oilers with 60 points.

    I think its reasonable to think that Hall-Nuge and Mcdavid might put up 70 each. It’s not impossible and I don’t even really think its that unlikely to have 3 Oilers in the 70s this year.

    If McDavid is effective and Nuge keeps one of Hall or Eberle as one of his wingers i would expect Nuge to break sixty just because he will get weaker competition from time to time when McDavid’s line is hot.

    To date, opposing coaches have had nothing to worry about but Nuge’s line. So, Nuge got the toughest comp the other teams had to offer. Even if McDavid pulls that comp away 25% of the time, it should be enough to boost Nuge.

  61. jonrmcleod says:

    Pastor of Disaster,

    No, I don’t think I’d heard of Clyde before. I pastor a church in Dartmouth, NS. More specifically, the church is in Cole Harbour, home of a couple of current NHLers.

  62. CapeBretonOilers says:

    GCW_69: If McDavid is effective and Nuge keeps one of Hall or Eberle as one of his wingers i would expect Nuge to break sixty just because he will get weaker competition from time to time when McDavid’s line is hot.

    whoa break 60 !! lets have him get 50 pts a season first …

  63. Pastor of Disaster says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Pastor of Disaster,

    No, I don’t think I’d heard of Clyde before. I pastor a church in Dartmouth, NS. More specifically, the church is in Cole Harbour, home of a couple of current NHLers.

    Nice! I gathered as much, from various posts you’ve shared on this esteemed blog. My grandparents grew up in Bridgewater, I love Nova Scotia. Keep representing the beautiful Kingdoms (of Edmonton and, well, you know) with conviction way over there in the Maritimes! And if you get a chance, shake hands with Sid for me. Then scowl threateningly at MacKinnon.

  64. Steve4 says:

    oilfan9911: You’re forgetting the garbage fire that was the Oilers goaltending last season. Getting a .915 sv% would be around a 60 goal swing to the good. Toss in McJesus, the Nuge making The Leap, Hall likely putting up better numbers and a year of Anton Lander who’s figured it out … It’s not at all unreasonable to think the negative goal differential would be wiped out.

    The Oilers had a save percentage of .902 last year. Elevating that to .915 would reduce the count by 34.8 (not 60) goals.

  65. RexLibris says:

    Using this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DKGZvKmc8kY0HKyhQshygvDJ5xvXfQZyjKIAjqyIKTk/edit#gid=2017733463

    I ran the NHLEs for Draisaitl, McDavid and Bennett out of curiosity.

    Draisaitl edged Bennett but both are within the range.

    McDavid was ahead by approximately an extra 30% to 40%.

    Woot.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris: Impossible.

    He’ll have declared war on Soviet Canuckistan by then and I don’t see him inviting citizens of a foreign belligerent nation to the White House.

    Maybe. More likely is, President Trump meets up with Vladimir Putin, and when each in confronted by a similar sized blowhard egotism they break out laughing so hard there’s zero chance of any wars during his term. Late in the night during the pouring of 80 year old French Brandy Canada is mentioned. Trump asks Putin, “Any problem if America annexes Canada? You keep the Crimea and I’ll toss in the Baltic Countries…to wit Putin says “You’re the man Don”, or some such nonsense that drunks say in the wee small hours.

  67. oilfan9911 says:

    Steve4,

    Whoops, forgot to include the goals allowed in the team shot total. The take away is I shouldn’t do math before having coffee.

  68. Магия 10 says:

    hunter1909: Maybe. More likely is, President Trump meets up with Vladimir Putin, andwhen each in confronted by a similar sized blowhard egotism they break out laughing so hard there’s zero chance of any wars during his term. Late in the night during the pouring of 80 year old French Brandy Canada is mentioned. Trump asks Putin, “Any problem if America annexes Canada? You keep the Crimea and I’ll toss in the Baltic Countries…to wit Putin says “You’re the man Don”, or some such nonsense that drunks say in the wee small hours.

    going dutch on poland, right?

  69. Tire Fire says:

    godot10: I suppose the Romans “taking him to the river” and waterboarding him before drowing him is about the same as nailing him to a tree with spikes and letting him suffocate to death.

    Dallas Eakins was the best coach who ever coached in the NHL.

  70. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    hunter1909: some such nonsense that drunks say in the wee small hours.

    I’m imagining Putin trying to explain to the Donald what BRICS is, and Trump responding that he thinks they should hold a Ms BRICS Pagent.

  71. sliderule says:

    Steve4,

    The oilers overall save percentage was closer to .890.I believe the figure you quote is 5 on 5.

    The oil gave up 30 shots and 3.37 goals per game.When you factor empty nets against and a save percentage of .915 it’s more than sixty goals saved on last years totals.

  72. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pechetr:
    Who plays on McJeebus’ wing when Taylor Hall is out for 20 games with a leg injury?

    sign one of Semin/Fehr/Santorelli, dump Purcell

    call Drai up to play wing with injuries, or slide Korpikoski up

  73. hunter1909 says:

    “He’s an NHL coach because he got hired by MacT? I like people who win hockey games.” Trump on Dallas Eakins

  74. LadiesloveSmid says:

    sliderule,

    League average all situations: .911
    Edmonton all situations: .888

    Worst relative to league average (Team SV%-League SV%) since 1999. Worst goaltending in over 15 years. If Talbot can play above average for 55 games, I wonder how many that would translate to.

    What’s a reasonable projection for Talbot? Woodguy?

  75. stush18 says:

    I think this is completely reasonable. For the record I had 59 points in 72 games, if scoring stays down, and 63 in 72 if it goes up.

  76. stush18 says:

    I’m afraid I have to disagree with your lineups LT.

    Mclellan has shown in the past, he puts two stars on a line, usually with a third grinder-type (Torres)

    The only time he played his best players together was on the powerplay.

    If we run hall-mcdavid-eberle, teams will trap and sleep them hemmed in there own zone all game long. They’ll be chasing the puck all night.

    That’s why poo-nuge-ebs works so well. Pouliot is dogged in puck pursuit.

    Maybe letestu plays on right wing with hall-mcdavid. Then he can take faceoffs for mcdavid as well.

    Poo-nuge-ebs
    Hall-mcdavid-letestu
    Yak-lander-Purcell
    Korp-Hendricks-klink

  77. hunter1909 says:

    stush18: Poo-nuge-ebs
    Hall-mcdavid-letestu
    Yak-lander-Purcell
    Korp-Hendricks-klink

    I see Yakupov’s on the 3rd line, playing on his off wing too.

    Thanks for the input, Dallas.

    Seriously, you have to assume McLellan’s going to juggle the lines in some way that we aren’t able to necessarily predict; but still, he’s going to want to promote Yakupov in a big way. Otherwise, he’s just another version of the management we’ve been suffering through already.

    The kid’s a 1st overall pick. Only a fool would not want to see him develop properly, which means top 6 minutes.

    If they don’t know what to do with him, and think he’s a bust, trade him to Calgary. I double dare them to.

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    stush18,

    I was thinking the same with Letestu and McDavid. Didn’t have McD take many face-offs or play very low in the zone in Erie (because he’s so damn good off the rush).

    Don’t know if Hendricks is at his best at C. Sign Fehr or Moss or Goc

  79. hags9k says:

    There will be no holding back the Yak from the top 2 lines. The chains are going to break this year and he is going to have an all around game. Too smart, too talented, too hungry.

  80. Ducey says:

    Look what Ron MacLean says:

    On the Edmonton Oilers’ 2015-16 playoff hopes:
    “Fantastic. I think for sure playoffs. I tell you who’s going to be lights-out this year is Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall.

    “They went over to the World Championship and played with Crosby, which is similar to Messier and Gretzky. Not that they needed any encouragement but those two Oilers flanked Mario Lemieux at the crucial moment of the Canada Cup in ’87. Now you have two Oilers flanking Sid to a gold. You watch Eberle take off. He’s already been great in international hockey, but I think this is going to be his year, Taylor Hall’s year.

    “And Connor McDavid and Darnell Nurse will fit in. Gimme a glass of wine or a beer, and I think in two years they win the Cup. That may be a little eager, but I don’t think more than four.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ron-maclean-nhl-phil-kessel-steven-stamkos-connor-mcdavid-oilers-toronto-maple-leafs-mike-babcock-auston-matthews/

  81. Ribs says:

    So, Nuge 0.84 P/GP, McDavid 0.886 P/GP.

    Hmmm… I’m hoping for a bigger gap there. Nuge had a stellar start, but he’s no McDavid. Crosby put up 1.26 P/GP. Maybe we can split the difference?

  82. Braden88 says:

    Snowman,

    Because he wont be with the team anymore. By trade deadline, others teams are looking at Yak who has skill, but doesn’t fit on the team. 1 year remaining at 2.5m. hard not to trade him.

  83. blainer says:

    Yak + will be traded in season to the Preds or lighting for one of their top D. If CMD stays healthy he will break 70 points. If we only had that D to get them the puck.. Let’s hope Nurse is the guy I think he is.

    Hall McDavid Eberle

    Poo RNH Drai

  84. Braden88 says:

    Ducey:
    Look what Ron MacLean says:

    On the Edmonton Oilers’ 2015-16 playoff hopes:
    “Fantastic. I think for sure playoffs. I tell you who’s going to be lights-out this year is Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall.

    “They went over to the World Championship and played with Crosby, which is similar to Messier and Gretzky. Not that they needed any encouragement but those two Oilers flanked Mario Lemieux at the crucial moment of the Canada Cup in ’87. Now you have two Oilers flanking Sid to a gold. You watch Eberle take off. He’s already been great in international hockey, but I think this is going to be his year, Taylor Hall’s year.

    “And Connor McDavid and Darnell Nurse will fit in. Gimme a glass of wine or a beer, and I think in two years they win the Cup. That may be a little eager, but I don’t think more than four.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ron-maclean-nhl-phil-kessel-steven-stamkos-connor-mcdavid-oilers-toronto-maple-leafs-mike-babcock-auston-matthews/

    best quote of the summer?!

  85. Snowman says:

    Braden88,

    I should have maybe put *sarcasm* beside that comment…

  86. wheatnoil says:

    Ribs:
    So, Nuge 0.84 P/GP, McDavid 0.886 P/GP.

    Hmmm… I’m hoping for a bigger gap there. Nuge had a stellar start, but he’s no McDavid. Crosby put up 1.26 P/GP. Maybe we can split the difference?

    One thing to keep in mind when comparing to McDavid to Crosby is that powerplays are way down compared to when Crosby played his rookie season.

    In his rookie season, 47 of Crosby’s 102 points came on the powerplay. The league leader that year (Kovalchuk) had 56 PP points. In all, 68 players had over 30 powerplay points.

    Comparatively, this last year Giroux had the league lead with only 37 points. Only 9 players had more than 30 PP points. That’s a ridiculous gap.

    Even-strength scoring totals are also down, but not nearly as much as powerplay scoring totals. That’s why we can’t use Crosby’s points as a comparison for McDavid. The context is so different that it’s almost like he played in a different league.

  87. Ribs says:

    It’s important to remember the moment, to hold it in your mind’s eye. The release, the adrenalin, the pure joy, the absolute majesty of the moment. The card, the turn, the cracking voice, the elation for us and the death rattle for every other fan base in the NHL. Music! Music! Oh my GOD, MUSIC! Hold on to it. Forever. It’s a big one. Never let anyone tell you differently.

    I think if I wasn’t at home alone watching the draft lottery, someone would have called the loony bin for a pickup. Sitting in front of the tube, decked out in full Oilers gear and accessories (jersey. foam puck hat, foam beer holder, lucky Oilers socks), I whooped and hollered for a good five minutes after the unbelievable happened. I even got my dog barking (I like to think he was just excited, too).

    I’ll never forget the buildup of hope and nervousness I had as each team’s card was flipped coming up to the Oilers turn. That was intense! There was no way I thought it could possibly happen. I was completely prepared to take off my silly getup after the inevitable, with my head down in disappointment, and just go on with my day. Once that gold card came up, it was madness. After the madness, my mind was racing to determine what the implications of this were. I realized there was pretty much no way the Oilers could possibly muck this up. 100% joy.

  88. B S says:

    Ribs: I realized there was pretty much no way the Oilers could possibly muck this up

    Haven’t been following the team very long have you?

  89. B S says:

    Ribs,

    Kudos to your optimism, the sign of a true Oilers fan (because we have had pretty much no other reason to watch this team the last couple of years). I was so sure the Oil wouldn’t win the lottery, I didn’t even check until the next day. Thought it was an onion article or something when I first read it.

  90. Shredder says:

    This is kind of funny. McDavid over 70 games as a rookie is as good as Nuge is 4 years in over 82 games, in terms of boxscore.

  91. Ribs says:

    B S: Haven’t been following the team very long have you?

    Haha. Trust me, there was still a few nerves left leading up to draft day 🙂

  92. Yeti says:

    Shredder:
    This is kind of funny. McDavid over 70 games as a rookie is as good as Nuge is 4 years in over 82 games, in terms of boxscore.

    You’d better wait until either of them cracks 50 points before talking of such things.

  93. Ribs says:

    wheatnoil: One thing to keep in mind when comparing to McDavid to Crosby is that powerplays are way down compared to when Crosby played his rookie season.

    In his rookie season, 47 of Crosby’s 102 points came on the powerplay. The league leader that year (Kovalchuk) had 56 PP points. In all, 68 players had over 30 powerplay points.

    Comparatively, this last year Giroux had the league lead with only 37 points. Only 9 players had more than 30 PP points. That’s a ridiculous gap.

    Even-strength scoring totals are also down, but not nearly as much as powerplay scoring totals. That’s why we can’t use Crosby’s points as a comparison for McDavid. The context is so different that it’s almost like he played in a different league.

    Hmmm… Good to know. Thanks!

    I guess at my 1.05 P/GP estimate, he’d be matching the Patrick Kane and John Tavares totals from this past season. That was with Kane having 22 PPP and Tavares at 31 PPP.

    Maybe it’s a bit much to expect McDavid to be top 5 in NHL scoring in his first season. But then again….Maybe it isn’t.

  94. Shredder says:

    Yeti,

    Holy crap. Maybe I’m not good at sarcasm, but Nuge got over 50 pts every season. Only season it didn’t happen is the lockout.

  95. hunter1909 says:

    Ribs: I realized there was pretty much no way the Oilers could possibly muck this up. 100% joy.

    Amazing that top hockey minds Lowe+MacT needed 100/100 in order to “succeed” to begin with.

  96. hunter1909 says:

    Ribs: I guess at my 1.05 P/GP estimate, he’d be matching the Patrick Kane and John Tavares totals from this past season. That was with Kane having 22 PPP and Tavares at 31 PPP.

    Honest question: If McDavid’s better than either of these two, why can’t he score more than them?

  97. hunter1909 says:

    If somebody said McDavid’s going to score under a ppg, and said it was because he was playing in the city of Edmonton and that makes it impossible for anything good to happen, and only mediocre was possible since Lowe+MacT took over I might think they had a point.

    Then they add the overbearing fans and it’s all but a done deal.

    Particularly the lower tier fans. They’re the worst.

  98. Snowman says:

    hunter1909: Honest question: If McDavid’s better than either of these two, why can’t he score more than them?

    By year 3? No problem. As a raw rookie on a team with a weaker defense it gets a little trickier.

    Shredder:
    Yeti,

    Holy crap. Maybe I’m not good at sarcasm, but Nuge got over 50 pts every season. Only season it didn’t happen is the lockout.

    Long running joke. Go back and read Nuge’s RE post.

  99. Pouzar says:

    Snowman: Long running joke. Go back and read Nuge’s RE post.

    Can’t wait till he cracks 60.

  100. Marc says:

    Lowetide: but the defense is poor and McDavid will be on the ice with some clunkers as things stand. Kane’s defensemen in his rookie season? Duncan Keith, Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Seabrook, James Wisniewski, Brent Sopel, Cam Barker. There are some good passers and puck movers in the group. Edmonton’s issues with passing tape to tape and hitting the exiting forward on the fly are legend, so projecting McDavid—even as I did—could be too strong. We’ll see, he’s a tough projection because he is so very talented.

    I’m not so sure that the shortcomings of some of the D will really affect McDavid that much.

    If he gets lots O zone starts, it will minimize the effect the D on his scoring. If he gets lots of D zone starts it will exacerbate it. The former seems a vastly more probable deployment than the latter.

    And McDavid will likely get either Hall or Eberle (or possible both) on his wing. Can you really see TMac deploying two (or three) of his four most dangerous forwards with a D pairing that has trouble getting them the puck? I certainly can’t.

    Sure, if McDavid is getting a steady diet of D zone starts with Gryba-Fayne behind him, it will likely knock 10-15 points off of his scoring next season. But of all the possible ways that TMac could deploy his troops, that one seems about the least likely.

    On the contrary, the most probable deployment for McDavid would be an Ozone push, with either Klefbom-Schultz (a pairing that had Ebs-Nuge-Poo scoring at elite levels last season) or Sekera-someone to get him the puck. If that’s the case it’s difficult to see how Gryba or Ference’s struggles with the first pass will have any bearing on McDavid’s scoring whatsoever.

  101. Pouzar says:

    jonrmcleod: Pastor of Disaster, No, I don’t think I’d heard of Clyde before. I pastor a church in Dartmouth, NS. More specifically, the church is in Cole Harbour, home of a couple of current NHLers.

    Dartmouth? kewl…Halifax is my old stompin ground (SMU alum).
    Long shot but are you related to any Mcleod’s from Yarmouth?

  102. Messier11edm says:

    CMD will have 100+pts
    Will win Calder, Lester and Hart.

    Book it!

  103. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    hunter1909: Honest question: If McDavid’s better than either of these two, why can’t he score more than them?

    I think it’s the ‘big bad western conference’ meme. Maybe they’re right in factoring that so heavily – I dunno.

    I do know that Todd MC will be wringing his hands at the start of OT this season.

    As an aside, I just saw a fairly recent interview with Gretzky, where he said that he came into the NHL at 147 pounds. Wow.

  104. stush18 says:

    hunter1909: I see Yakupov’s on the 3rd line, playing on his off wing too.

    Thanks for the input, Dallas.

    Seriously, you have to assume McLellan’s going to juggle the lines in some way that we aren’t able to necessarily predict; but still, he’s going to want to promote Yakupov in a big way. Otherwise, he’s just another version of the management we’ve been suffering through already.

    The kid’s a 1st overall pick. Only a fool would not want to see him develop properly, which means top 6 minutes.

    If they don’t know what to do with him, and think he’s a bust, trade him to Calgary. I double dare them to.

    Well if you did anything other than insult people I might be upset. But I’ll try to explain.

    Mclellan usually ran players on there right wing. Plus it’s easier to play on the proper side.

    Yaks corsi and zone exits were dramatically better playing the left side.

    And we’ve all been through this. Giving someone top six minutes doesn’t mean we automatically develop. We did that the years before, and he was floundering until Nelson cut yaks minutes back and gave him more PP time.

    We need a pouliot for hall and mcdavid. Letestu might be that guy, which allows yak easy starts and the ability to work his way into the top six with a vet and a defensively sound centre.

    Maybe you have a lineup? Or are you just going to sit back and chirp?

    Edit* also, if we assume the poo-nuge-ebs is our “1st” line, do you play hall with mcdavid and yak? No, cuz they will bleed chances. So who plays second line? Mcdavid or yak?

    It’s not a terrible thing for yak to work his way into minutes.

  105. stush18 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    stush18,

    I was thinking the same with Letestu and McDavid. Didn’t have McD take many face-offs or play very low in the zone in Erie (because he’s so damn good off the rush).

    Don’t know if Hendricks is at his best at C. Sign Fehr or Moss or Goc

    I was stumping for Hendricks to play left wing with mcdavid to provide some muscle and protection, while being a net front guy. Plus he’s pretty good on the faceoffs. But hat never got much traction. So I’ll put letestu out there.

    He actually played pretty well in Colombus when he wasn’t buried in the dzone. Plus he can keep up with hall and mcdavid, good on faceoffs, and is built like a shit brickhouse.

  106. NCD12 says:

    Pouzar,

    Nice, I’m. SMU alum myself

  107. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    stush18,

    A shit brickhouse isn’t actually very structurally sound.

    A brick shithouse, on the other hand, is a great place to ride out a tornado (assuming you can’t hold it).

    Kessel is built like a shit brickhouse.

    Letestu is built like a brick shithouse.

    Is it October yet?

  108. Snowman says:

    stush18,

    I don’t think keep up with Hall and Mcdavid means what you think it means.

  109. CapeBretonOilers says:

    NCD12:
    Pouzar,

    Nice, I’m. SMU alum myself

    Me too ! Go Huskies ! Dal sucks

  110. hunter1909 says:

    stush18: Maybe you have a lineup? Or are you just going to sit back and chirp?

    I don’t understand enough about the Oilers to make any lineups, but if i was going to I’d start with Hall/McDavid/Yakupov – who imo would terrify the NHL all the way from October to June. They’d outwork, out skate, out pass and completely outthink the opposition, and for heart+desire could collectively rub shoulders with Henri Richard.

    I don’t understand why the defence is getting slaughtered by many posters. They’ve got a huge upgrade in goal, Sekera’s better than Petry, Klefbom’s a year older, Nurse+Reinhart both look like developing into very solid NHLers, and even Justin Schultz should see his career reset by an excellent coach like McLellan.

    Once England’s Soccer team hired a coach who was so awful, a newspaper printed his face superimposed on a turnip. From that day on he was known as “Graham Turnip Taylor”. Losing does that to people.

  111. Snowman says:

    hunter1909,

    I think Sekera is at best a minor upgrade on Petry. They MAY have a huge upgrade in goal. Klefbom is dreamy. Schultz might be better or he might be the same. Nikitin can’t be worse but he also might be the same and Ference is older. I am extremely bullish on Nurse but I’m not sure he comes in and plays impactful top 4 minutes this season (I actually doubt it for the first half of the year anyways) and I’m even less certain that Reinhart provides an upgrade this season. There’s lots be critical of on the D.

  112. hunter1909 says:

    Snowman: I think Sekera is at best a minor upgrade on Petry.

    I was one of Petry’s biggest supporters. But he wasn’t going to lead the team anywhere, because that’s not his style. In Montreal he can play behind Subhan and Markov and look great.

    Having a huge upgrade in goal is important, yes?

    Schultz is the player who can’t get any worse. A bonafide NHL coach should be able to evaluate his game instantly to help him move forwards a player. No offense to Nelson, who was a decent enough replacement to the previous disaster, but McLellan has the potential to do something great.

    Nurse I’m sure will make the odd mistake, but his destruction of opposition players should help make us forget those as he develops his game and hey, he should be improving.

    Ference might even be able to play credibly in the 6th or 5th position on defence. Stranger things have happened.

    Reinhart is supposed to be 100% calm at all times. Please explain how a 100% calm defenceman isn’t a good thing for the Oilers current defence?

    Lamorello’s joined the Leafs. End of discussion, lol.

  113. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey: This is how Charlie Brown probably rationalizes taking one more kick at the football.

    Every off season we convince ourselves the Oilers will be better.

    Better goalie improves the goal differential by 60, the team scores an extra 70.All of a sudden its easy to project a + 50 goal differential rather than -83.

    I am not going there.

    I WILL NOT BE SUCKED IN AGAIN

    Providing a real-life-consequence-free outlet for unbridled optimism is one of the primary purposes of sports fandom.

    Let it go and indulge! Otherwise, might was well take up gardening….

  114. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    I really wish we had a bit more money under the cap right now. I’d love to see Fehr on McDavid’s RW. He’s a good 2-way player, who can play C, and just got 17 EV goals while playing up and down the Caps line up. He shouldn’t be too expensive, but with all of the future bonuses on the roster the extra space will probably come in handy.

  115. NCD12 says:

    CapeBretonOilers,

    Hahahaha, yea Dal sucks

  116. Pouzar says:

    NCD12:
    Pouzar,

    Nice, I’m. SMU alum myself

    Sweet! Gotta get back for a visit soon. I miss Halifax.

  117. Pouzar says:

    CapeBretonOilers: Me too !Go Huskies ! Dalsucks

    +1

  118. NCD12 says:

    Pouzar,

    I have to get out to Edmonton, still haven’t been

  119. commonfan14 says:

    Messier11edm:
    MESSIER11EDM says:
    July 23, 2015 at 2:41 pm
    CMD will have 100+pts
    Will win Calder, Lester and Hart.
    Book it!

    You forgot the Conn Smythe.

  120. jake70 says:

    Pouzar: +1

    Went to Dal, recall giving you a jab recently about SMU, think we used to call it Robie Street High back in the day. Was just ribbing, but now gloves are off….will meet guys at “Pizza corner” downtown halifax (man I miss that place after the bars) and we’ll settle this.

  121. NCD12 says:

    jake70,

    I’m in
    New old school donair place going in pizza corner soon from what I hear

  122. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Ducey: Only 19 players in the league had 70+ points last year.

    Classic example of filtering out known priors. How many of those teams have four first-overall picks under the age of 25?

    Next, in any non-fraudulent data set of reasonable size, some implausible-looking hypothesis is always true.

    Finally, no real statistician argues from extreme-tail bin counts.

    In summation, your honour, either “lack of balance” in the roster directly translates to swing statistics (small excess of highs, large excess of lows) or we need to park it on a rusty hoist in old-timey service bay of the Perpetual Paint Shop, where it can croon backing vocals for pin-striped Bawdy Language and flower-power Clutch.

    ———

    “Sounding good, boys! But about those names … not you, Clutch, the other two.” The mystery guest appears to have done his homework.

    “Yeah, Clutch is Clutch. No-one messes with Clutch.” chirps Lack of Balance, while fussing with his trick door.

    “Who are you, anyway?” says Bawdy Language, dripping fluids of many colours from invisible places.

    “Me? I’m a top-heavy B&W Dodge Monaco!”

    “We can see that.” says Bawdy Language.

    “And I can get you a paid gig!”

    “Oh! You are? You can?” says Lack of Balance.

    “Rrrrrrrickety, Rrrrrrrocoqco, and Clutch! How does that sound, boys?”

    “Oooh, not so good in closed spaces.” says Lack of Balance, wishing both of his power windows worked at the same time.

    “Hey, where did you learn that Chevy voice?” says Bawdy Language, suspiciously.

    “Long term parking, I guess you could say. Motels, hotels, and rest stops. Let’s not dwell on the particulars.”

    “What’s our rep?” asks Lack of Balance, who can croon both loud and soft.

    “Hispanic Motown,” says Rocoqco, already acting his new part, arching his wipers while mincing his pin-stripe. “Weren’t you listening? Anyone can see that.”

    Everyone turns to study Rocoqco for a moment, but no-one can tell whether he’s taking this gig seriously by half.

    “Hey, we can cover ‘R.O.C.Q in the USA’,” says Clutch. “This might even work.”

    “Good branding! But I don’t think it goes with the Spanish strings concept. How about Prrrrairie Motown?” says Dodge. “That rrrreally projects.”

    Dodge is the man on mobile P. A.

    “Okay, sure. Rickety, give us a B-flat,” says Rocoqco to Lack of Balance, who elects for the main horn.

    “Hit it, boys!” says Clutch.

    “To the beach!” says Dodge.

    And off they go.

    ———

    [ Later. ]

    “Tonight only. Rrrrrrrickety, Rrrrrrrocoqco, and Clutch! They’re Grrrrreat!”

    ———

    Today’s trivia:

    Basso profundo Thurl Ravenscroft who voiced Tony the Tiger for five decades was also the vocalist for “You’re a Mean One, Mr Grinch.”

    ———

    “Hey, who are you, skinny lady?”

    “My name is Twiggy. I want my car back.”

    “Too late now, skinny lady. Clutch ‘s already on stage. Why don’t you just sit back, have a coke and some chicken, and enjoy the show.”

    “Clutch?”

    “You didn’t know?”

    “He’s any good?”

    “Oh, yeah.”

    “Well then, maybe I will.”

    “Garcon! Two chickens and a coke, for the skinny lady!”

  123. Pouzar says:

    jake70: Went to Dal, recall giving you a jab recently about SMU, think we used to call it Robie Street High back in the day. Was justribbing, but now gloves are off….will meet guys at “Pizza corner” downtown halifax (man I miss that place after the bars) and we’ll settle this.

    OMG pizza corner……mmmmmmmmmmmmmm!
    Great now I’m hungry too! Been waaaaaaay too long since I’ve been back.

  124. raventalon40 says:

    Snowman: By year 3? No problem. As a raw rookie on a team with a weaker defense it gets a little trickier.

    Long running joke. Go back and read Nuge’s RE post.

    I believe there was a similar joke with Sam Gagner

  125. Scott Reynolds says:

    Seems very much in the range to me, Lowetide. A couple years back I looked at the NHL equivalencies for players coming to the NHL from the CHL in the year after being drafted (2005-2013), and found that they brought 36.8% of their offense on average; the range was pretty wide though with 57.3% from Nugent-Hopkins to 18.4% from Seguin. If McDavid is average, that puts him at 0.93 points per game with the extreme ranges being 1.45 (not gonna happen) and 0.46 (also not gonna happen).

  126. Johnny says:

    Johnny Hockey had 0.8 points per game. Are we happy if McDavid gets 7 more points than Gaudreau?

  127. Radiusofnerdature says:

    Ribs,

    Ribs: I think if I wasn’t at home alone watching the draft lottery, someone would have called the loony bin for a pickup. Sitting in front of the tube, decked out in full Oilers gear and accessories (jersey. foam puck hat, foam beer holder, lucky Oilers socks), I whooped and hollered for a good five minutes after the unbelievable happened. I even got my dog barking (I like to think he was just excited, too).

    I’ll never forget the buildup of hope and nervousness I had as each team’s card was flipped coming up to the Oilers turn. That was intense! There was no way I thought it could possibly happen. I was completely prepared to take off my silly getup after the inevitable, with my head down in disappointment, and just go on with my day. Once that gold card came up, it was madness. After the madness, my mind was racing to determine what the implications of this were. I realized there was pretty much no way the Oilers could possibly muck this up. 100% joy.

    I’ll never forget it either. I was sitting in the kitchen of a large work camp, off in the corner by myself with my ratty Taylor Hall shirt on watching a small little t.v. mounted up in a corner. There were maybe 20 random people in there, all of them quietly eating dinner or playing crib and not a one of them paying any attention to the t.v. or me.

    The build of anticipation as each team whiffed on the chance, a smug smile as the Leafs lost out(knowing their fans would be in utter shock). I was almost nauseous letting myself have just a little bit of hope and then it happened … roast beef for dinner! My favorite!

    I jumped out of my chair and started hollering, and I’m normally kind of quiet. The people in the room were looking at me like I was insane but I didn’t care and I didn’t stop. Great memory, I’ll cherish it forever. Went back for seconds.

  128. Steve4 says:

    sliderule:
    Steve4,

    The oilers overall save percentage was closer to .890.I believe the figure you quote is 5 on 5.

    The oil gave up 30 shots and 3.37 goals per game.When you factor empty nets against and a save percentage of .915 it’s more than sixty goals saved on last years totals.

    I added up total saves and total shots against for the team. Bachman and Brossoit helped the save percentage get up to .902, while Scrivens and Fasth were .890 and .888 respectively.

    Even if Talbot falls below .915 he can still have a huge impact by having more big performances than Scrivens and Fasth. The dynamic duo was bad almost every night. Even if Talbot has a .908 and a 2.95 GA he could still win ten more games for us this year.

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