THE SEVENTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)

By Round 7 the chances of grabbing an NHL player of 100 or more games is 9.25%, very low. However, the Edmonton Oilers had some real success early in the century. Matthew Lombardi (536 games) and Kyle Brodziak (621 games) represent the outer marker and a scouting home run for any team.

I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the seventh round 2008-15. No grand statements on either side, no claims of victory, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it (the Cullen grades)

OILERS SEVENTH ROUND PICKS, 2008-2015

  • 2008: Jordan Bendfeld (Kevin Lowe)
  • 2010: Kristians Pelss (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2010: Kellen Jones (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2011: Frans Tuohimaa (Steve Tambellini)
  • 2013: Greg Chase (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2014: Keven Bouchard (Craig MacTavish)
  • 2015: Miroslav Svoboda (Peter Chiarelli)
  • 2015: Ziyat Paigin (Peter Chiarelli)

ARROWS

  • Productive in Europe/AHL: Kellen Jones
  • No Longer in Organized Hockey: Jordan Bendfeld
  • Bad arrows: Keven Bouchard, Frans Tuohimaa
  • Lukewarm arrows:
  • Good arrows: Greg Chase
  • Very good arrows:
  • New arrows: Miroslav Svoboda, Ziyat Paigin

ONE BY ONE

  • D Jordan Bendfeld: He was drafted in 2006 by the Coyotes, but was a draft re-entry in 2008 when the Oilers took him. Played 106 ECHL and 26 AHL games during his pro career.
  • F Kristians Pelss: Enjoyed a strong junior career with the Edmonton Oil Kings and played 20 AHL and 13 ECHL games in his first pro season. We still miss him.
  • F Kellen Jones: Enjoying a solid pro career so far, he’s been in 55 AHL games and 27 ECHL games at this point. Productive two-way player, excellent on the PK with Connor.
  • G Frans Tuohimaa: Frans’ North American experience was disappointing, he didn’t play that much and when he did there wasn’t much to recommend him. He’s still young, can recover his career back home.
  • C-R Greg Chase: A very good prospect, who posted good to great seasons after his draft day. He’ll probably get fewer chances than a higher pick but the young man has three years to show what he can do on an entry-level deal. Insane value for where he was taken based on boxcars.
  • G Keven Bouchard: He didn’t move the needle in draft year +1, although there were good performances. The 2014 draft was simply baffling and Bouchard is part of that. Oilers goalie drafting over the years is abysmal, Bouchard didn’t help this season.
  • G Miroslav Svoboda: He posted solid numbers last season, including some good work at the WJ’s. Miles to go.
  • D Ziyat Paigin: A monster defenseman best described as a project, but this is the place to draft them.

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38 Responses to "THE SEVENTH ROUND (2015 EDITION)"

  1. stush18 says:

    Do you think chase filters over to right wing immediately LT?

    It’s crazy how in one year we went from “meh” organizational centre depth to I would say arguably one of the deepest in the league, although admittedly inexperienced.

    Nuge
    Mcdavid
    Drai
    Lander
    Letestu
    Hendricks
    Yakimov
    Platzer
    Chase
    Khaira

    That’s pretty impressive.

  2. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Do you think chase filters over to right wing immediately LT?

    It’s crazy how in one year we went from “meh” organizational centre depth to I would say arguably one of the deepest in the league, although admittedly inexperienced.

    Nuge
    Mcdavid
    Drai
    Lander
    Letestu
    Hendricks
    Yakimov
    Platzer
    Chase
    Khaira

    That’s pretty impressive.

    Yeah, I think the Oilers move him to RW, they do have some issues there. As you say, center is incredible now, and in 2011 spring it was a wasteland.

  3. Centre of attention says:

    LT, how stoked would you be if Chase was lining up on McDavid’s RW in the coming years? Chase would work well, he plays with an edge and he can keep up on the play. He can cash in some goals too.

    That, or Draisaitl on McDavids right wing *drooling*

    Much has to be done/proven before we are at this point though.

  4. Pretendergast says:

    So was it the value left on the board that made 2014 draft so baffling?

    I get Coughlin was odd but Lagesson looks fine and these are mostly after 100, ie not great odds.

    goalies are voodoo so I’m not against the Bouchard flier, better than using a pick on Ilya “wont be seen for 10 years” Samsonov.

  5. cc says:

    Thanks for the draft review. LT, given the prospect depth who are your 5 under-the-radar prospects you are cheering like hell for.

  6. geowal says:

    I’m surprised Chase doesn’t rank “very good arrows” considering a 7th round pick

  7. Lowetide says:

    Pretendergast:
    So was it the value left on the board that made 2014 draft so baffling?

    I get Coughlin was odd but Lagesson looks fine and these are mostly after 100, ie not great odds.

    goalies are voodoo so I’m not against the Bouchard flier, better than using a pick on Ilya “wont be seen for 10 years” Samsonov.

    The disappointment came after the strong 2013 draft, which remains a strong template for a draft. MacT:

    1. Dealt down for extra picks in a deep draft
    2. Took players who fit a specific model (they delivered offense)
    3. Took Russians (undervalued in these years)

    2014 saw Edmonton pass on good, available players AFTER Nagelvoort. It was a weird draft, I’ll admit, but players like Rourke Chartier were available at No. 130 (Coughlin) and Edmonton passed on them, time and again.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=160171

    In their final three picks, only Vesel appeared to have actual promise, as I mentioned at the time.

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/06/28/harvest-moon-2014/

  8. Lowetide says:

    cc:
    Thanks for the draft review.LT, given the prospect depth who are your 5 under-the-radar prospects you are cheering like hell for.

    Under the radar is a moving target, but from the group of players taken outside the third round (after No. 90 overall), I’m cheering for Dillon Simpson, Joey Laleggia, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase and Ethan Bear.

  9. Bar_Qu says:

    Lowetide: Under the radar is a moving target, but from the group of players taken outside the third round (after No. 90 overall), I’m cheering for Dillon Simpson, Joey Laleggia, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase and Ethan Bear.

    Those are all quality guys who I hope get time in the show too.

    Also, RIP Mr Pelss, a blessing of peace on your family too.

  10. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide: Under the radar is a moving target, but from the group of players taken outside the third round (after No. 90 overall), I’m cheering for Dillon Simpson, Joey Laleggia, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase and Ethan Bear.

    Platzer is a personal favourite in the underdog department. I think if Tyler Soy comes in and earns a contract, he could go on that list as well.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Aaron Portzline
    ‏@Aportzline

    Told that Ehrhoff talks with another #NHL club have heated up in the last 24 hours. No agreement in place, but progress in that direction.

  12. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    Aaron Portzline
    ‏@Aportzline

    Told that Ehrhoff talks with another #NHL club have heated up in the last 24 hours. No agreement in place, but progress in that direction.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but we don’t have cap space for any more additions, unless someone is moved out?

  13. Pouzar says:

    stush18: Correct me if I’m wrong, but we don’t have cap space for any more additions, unless someone is moved out?

    You can be over the cap up until season starts??? I think.

  14. Really? says:

    Hopefully Chia can have some productive discussions with Ehrhoff. He would fit so well on the Oilers short term.

  15. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar: You can be over the cap up until season starts??? I think.

    10% over I believe.

    Problem is that other teams won’t do you any favours to get back under. Chicago had to throw in a solid D prospect to offload a good player and they still didn’t get much cap relief. If the Oilers don’t want to get rid of a good player, things might get tough.

    Other teams could easily say, “Sure, we’ll take Nikitin at half salary retained, but you’ll have to throw in a B prospect like Slepyshev to make it worth our time and maybe a draft pick too.”

    Maybe that’s worth it for Ehrhoff, but it may not be easy anyways.

    Edit: Though perhaps if Chia is interested in Ehrhoff, he might have a trade lined up to deal with the issue.

  16. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: 10% over I believe.

    Problem is that other teams won’t do you any favours to get back under. Chicago had to throw in a solid D prospect to offload a good player and they still didn’t get much cap relief. If the Oilers don’t want to get rid of a good player, things might get tough.

    Other teams could easily say, “Sure, we’ll take Nikitin at half salary retained, but you’ll have to throw in a B prospect like Slepyshev to make it worth our time and maybe a draft pick too.”

    Maybe that’s worth it for Ehrhoff, but it may not be easy anyways.

    Edit: Though perhaps if Chia is interested in Ehrhoff, he might have a trade lined up to deal with the issue.

    Yeah risky stuff. I doubt it’s the Oil.

  17. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar: Yeah risky stuff. I doubt it’s the Oil.

    Would be pretty sweet if they could make it work, though. I’m itching to see that balance picture.

  18. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Would be pretty sweet if they could make it work, though. I’m itching to see that balance picture.

    Unless another deal is in the works to free up space.

  19. Yak2 says:

    Chase should be in the “very good arrows” section. Your slipping LT.

  20. godot10 says:

    Geez. With the last few days, Franson, Semin, and Ehrhoff all surface to deny rumours that they are dead.

    The offers much be pretty bad if they have to go on radio and leak to reporters that they are receiving multiple great offers.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Yak2:
    Chase should be in the “very good arrows” section. Your slipping LT.

    Thought about it, but his final junior year didn’t spike as you’d want it. That’s a legit concern, with the understanding he’s a bona fide prospect.

  22. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    I want to answer your question from this morning about how do you shelter connor, LT.

    I don’t think it is necessarily about sheltering him so much as it is forcing the other coach to make a tough decision. Putting him with Hall makes the other coaches life easy. On the other hand, if you have Hall RNH Eberle on a line, and connor on another, you force the coach to make a decision. If he chooses to match connor, I don’t care because one of the best lines in the NHL is playing seconds now. They will light the lamp enough in that situation to grab the spotlight. I highly doubt the opposition wouldn’t prefer to match that hall line though, especially at the start of the season.

    At home, and in situations where you need a goal, that changes, but I think you have to try to give him some cover at the start of the game. If you play connor with Hall or Eberle, I think that makes the choice more gray, and Connor’s line probably gets matched. The big wrench is Yak because he has to play with connor, or he will be left on an island again. Yak and Shultz turning a corner is a BIG deal. If yak and CMD are together you need some cover, so either add Pouliot, Lander, Purcell to that line. Personally I put lander at C to start off, and adjust as McDavid proves himself. I also think a lot of people on this blog are overrating korpikoski, and not by a little bit.

    Hall RNH Eberle
    Sanchise Lander Yak

  23. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
    I want to answer your question from this morning about how do you shelter connor, LT.

    I don’t think it is necessarily about sheltering him so much as it is forcing the other coach to make a tough decision. Putting him with Hall makes the other coaches life easy. On the other hand, if you have Hall RNH Eberle on a line, and connor on another, you force the coach to make a decision. If he chooses to match connor, I don’t care because one of the best lines in the NHL is playing seconds now. They will light the lamp enough in that situation to grab the spotlight. I highly doubt the opposition wouldn’t prefer to match that hall line though, especially at the start of the season.

    At home, and in situations where you need a goal, that changes, but I think you have to try to give him some cover at the start of the game. If you play connor with Hall or Eberle, I think that makes the choice more gray, and Connor’s line probably gets matched.The big wrench is Yak because he has to play with connor, or he will be left on an island again. Yak and Shultz turning a corner is a BIG deal. If yak and CMD are together you need some cover, so either add Pouliot, Lander, Purcell to that line. Personally I put lander at C to start off, and adjust as McDavid proves himself. I also think a lot of people on this blog are overrating korpikoski, and not by a little bit.

    Hall RNH Eberle
    Sanchise Lander Yak

    My counter is Nuge (along with Eberle and Pouliot) were the de facto No. 1 line last season, facing the tough minutes. Splitting up Hall and NUGE is the move that gives opposition coaches fits. they are the drivers, at least for now.

  24. Snowman says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker),

    If you play “sanchise” with lander who are your other two centers?

    If they play Pou-Nuge-Ebs and Hall-Mcdavid-XXX, that is a tough choice. That Nuge line demolished the NHL at the end of the last season. Highest scoring line over the last 40ish games if I remember (or definitely one of the very highest scoring lines). Then you have to choose between a line that will kill you or Hall and Mcdavid.

    Also I don’t think Yak should play with Mcdavid until he learns to play a structured game. Mcdavid will have enough to do without babysitting Yakupov.

  25. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Lowetide,

    My counter to your counter is that Pouliot only fit there while Hall was down, and/or we struggled to have any depth scoring. I might have to do some digging, but I believe HNE was a better line than PNE. I don’t think Hall is good enough defensively to account for McDavid and Yak, which buries the russian again. I forget what the stat was, but yak scored something like 75% of his points in 40% of his minutes (with arco or roy). Maybe lander can work with yak, but I am afraid that if we push him out of the top six again, we are going to lose him for good.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
    Lowetide,

    My counter to your counter is that Pouliot only fit there while Hall was down, and/or we struggled to have any depth scoring. I might have to do some digging, but I believe HNE was a better line than PNE. I don’t think Hall is good enough defensively to account for McDavid and Yak, which buries the russian again. I forget what the stat was, but yak scored something like 75% of his points in 40% of his minutes (with arco or roy). Maybe lander can work with yak, but I am afraid that if we push him out of the top six again, we are going to lose him for good.

    I don’t think we can save the Russian, not this season. Todd McLellan has done great work in the past with pairs, and I do have some hope that Leon-Yak (with maybe Lander) can do great things on the 3line.

  27. Pajamah says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think we can save the Russian, not this season. Todd McLellan has done great work in the past with pairs, and I do have some hope that Leon-Yak (with maybe Lander) can do great things on the 3line.

    I absolutely love the idea of a Lander-Drai-Yak line. As a 3rd line. Provided all 3 play like they did in the back 9 as opposed to last November, could be scary good.

    Even if it means Nuge-Hall-Eberle, McDavid-Pou-Purcell to shelter the wunderkind.

  28. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Who’s Leon Draisaitl, has he won any junior awards?

    I did like his chemistry with yak by eye, but the math didn’t work. If RNH is to Ebs, then I think yak needs to get the first shot to stick with connor. Draisaitl will fit well with RNH and Eberle one day, and Hall with Yak and McDavid. I would actually trade Pouliot as early as this deadline. I guess that really depends on whether lander is Horcoff at 3C.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
    Who’s Leon Draisaitl, has he won any junior awards?

    I did like his chemistry with yak by eye, but the math didn’t work. If RNH is to Ebs, then I think yak needs to get the first shot to stick with connor. Draisaitl will fit well with RNH and Eberle one day, and Hall with Yak and McDavid. I would actually trade Pouliot as early as this deadline. I guess that really depends on whether lander is Horcoff at 3C.

    Leon and Yakupov had solid possession numbers together (49.3)

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1993&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

  30. Kmart99 says:

    I know it isn’t fair to heap too much blame on Eakins, especially since it’s the players who play the game. But when it comes to Yak not being saveable, I just can’t admit to it. I honestly think Eakins overloaded Yak with information. Yak was so focused on implementing Eakins’ defensive teachings that he could never play his own game. He was so worried about screwing up and losing ice time(rightfully so).

    Does anyone here think Kessel gives a flying fuck about defense?

    No. And no I don’t think Yak is in the same conversation as Kessel skillwise.

    But I do think Yak broke Stamkos’ rookie scoring record in Sarnia, and I do think he led the Oilers in scoring during his rookie season(with some sh% help).

    For me, Eakins is 50% of the reasons Yak struggled the last two years. I have no idea how long it will take him to recover, but my belief is that he will regain his form.

    Yak can’t be stressing about losing ice time if he turns the puck over, Without confidence, Yak will never meet expectations. Willis has decided to adjust expectations, and just hopes Yak can become a depth scorer. On this team he might have to become that player, but if I’m Yak, my goal is to battle Ebs for ice time and to prove myself as every bit offensive as Ebs.

    Id set my expectations for Yak af matching Ebs’ 5v5 p/60 and 5v4 p/60. Not because he’s proven to be capable of that, but because I am a hopeless optimist that simply can’t marry the skill I see on the ice with the spreadsheets. At least not until a full season sans Eakins.

  31. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Leon and Yakupov had solid possession numbers together (49.3)

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1993&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

    With the caveat of having a whopping 80.6 % offensive zone starts.

  32. G Money says:

    Kmart99: Id set my expectations for Yak af matching Ebs’ 5v5 p/60 and 5v4 p/60. Not because he’s proven to be capable of that, but because I am a hopeless optimist that simply can’t marry the skill I see on the ice with the spreadsheets.

    Ryan: With the caveat of having a whopping 80.6 % offensive zone starts.

    The yin.

    The yang.

    The Yak.

  33. jimmers2 says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker),

    Perhaps I am stepping into a poo-pile of irony but it isn’t clear from the message. Draisaitl has routinely been his WHL’s team’s scoring leader by total points or ppg. He managed to be named MVP for the 2015 WHL Championship and for the 2015 Memorial Cup as well. Buddy’s portfolio looks pretty damn good…

  34. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Leon and Yakupov had solid possession numbers together (49.3)

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1993&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

    If by some miracle Draisaitl and Yakupov build some effective chemistry the Oilers will have that mythical three scoring lines that will terroize the league until the cap forces us to start trading forwards.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    Ryan: With the caveat of having a whopping 80.6 % offensive zone starts.

    I didn’t even know that was possible.

  36. flyfish1168 says:

    Kmart99:
    I know it isn’t fair to heap too much blame on Eakins, especially since it’s the players who play the game.But when it comes to Yak not being saveable, I just can’t admit to it.I honestly think Eakins overloaded Yak with information. Yak was so focused on implementing Eakins’ defensive teachings that he could never play his own game.He was so worried about screwing up and losing ice time(rightfully so).

    Does anyone here think Kessel gives a flying fuck about defense?

    No.And no I don’t think Yak is in the same conversation as Kessel skillwise.

    But I do think Yak broke Stamkos’ rookie scoring record in Sarnia, and I do think he led the Oilers in scoring during his rookie season(with some sh% help).

    For me, Eakins is 50% of the reasons Yak struggled the last two years. I have no idea how long itwill take him to recover, but my belief is that he will regain his form.

    Yak can’t be stressing about losing ice time if he turns the puck over, Without confidence, Yak will never meet expectations. Willis has decided to adjust expectations, and just hopes Yak can become a depth scorer.On this team he might have to become that player, but if I’m Yak, my goal is to battle Ebs for ice time and to prove myself as every bit offensive as Ebs.

    Id set my expectations for Yak af matching Ebs’ 5v5 p/60 and 5v4 p/60.Not because he’s proven to be capable of that, but because I am a hopeless optimist that simply can’t marry the skill I see on the ice with the spreadsheets.At least not until a full season sans Eakins.

    I’m with you. Yak has a way higher ceiling and potential then Eberle. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate Ebs skills and love to keep him on our team. But from day one I have seen Yak as an underdog and watching the idiot coach treat Yak the way he did,I can’t help but cheer for him to succeed and prove eakins wrong again.

    I don’t believe Anton has the correct skill set to play Yak. Yak needs a centre that is a set up and passer passer JMHO

  37. Ryan says:

    GCW_69: I didn’t even know that was possible.

    Maybe there’s an alternate universe where Scrivens was able to stop some pucks and Draisatl was able to produce some offense with those cherry minutes….

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