MIDNIGHT BLUE

At some point this summer, we should hear about the Edmonton Oilers and Oscar Klefbom agreeing to a multi-year deal. It’s important because the price point and term impact things over the rest of the decade. If Peter Chiarelli can get Klefbom signed to something close to Jonas Brodin’s deal (six years, $25 million), that represents good value for one of Edmonton’s cluster players.

WHO ARE THEY?

Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse. Fair? And if things work out as planned, Cam Talbot, Griffin Reinhart, Nail Yakupov and others can join the group. If Chiarelli can get Klefbom signed to a deal around $4.2M, Edmonton will have Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Sekera and Klefbom signed for around $27.7 million. That’s vital with McDavid getting a major deal in three years and other markers coming due (Justin Schultz, Cam Talbot next summer).

THE CURRENT PRO ROSTER

OILERS ROSTER AND CAP

  • Cap is $71.4 million, Oilers have $2,183,000 in cap room.
  • Chiarelli has significant depth compared to MacT’s rosters (or Tambellini’s) across the board. There are 4 goalies, 13 defensemen and 19 forwards with at least some NHL experience.

50-MAN LIST

  1. G Cam Talbot (Edmonton has a starter, many fans wanted a more veteran option. I like the bet)
  2. G Ben Scrivens (Keeping Scrivens as backup is the play here. He should regress to the mean)
  3. G Anders Nilsson (Fascinating deal made by Chiarelli, we haven’t seen this kind of trade in awhile)
  4. G Laurent Brossoit (Final year of entry deal, massive season for the young man)
  5. G Eetu Laurikainen (Excellent bet. This is the mark of a smart team)
  6. D Andrej Sekera (Oilers needed him badly, he’s an outstanding addition)
  7. D Mark Fayne (Should flourish under McLellan, take on bigger role on team)
  8. D Oscar Klefbom (Talented blue, range of skills, McLellan has a real talent here)
  9. D Justin Schultz (Training, working hard, McLellan could do wonders for him)
  10. D Nikita Nikitin (Pressure will be on, hopefully he’s healthy, back stands up all year)
  11. D Eric Gryba (Tough, defense-first addition. Oilers clearly felt a need)
  12. D Andrew Ference (This may be a tough year for the captain. Pressure is on)
  13. D Brandon Davidson (Inexpensive defender, NHL option)
  14. D Griffin Reinhart (Big, strong defender close to NHL-ready or already there)
  15. D Darnell Nurse (I remain convinced he makes the team)
  16. D Brad Hunt (NHL recall option depending on who is hurt/struggling)
  17. D David Musil (Stay-at-home D continues to matriculate. I think he’ll make it)
  18. D Jordan Oesterle (He could flourish under McLellan)
  19. D Dillon Simpson (Looking for him to move up the AHL depth chart in 15-16)
  20. D Martin Gernat (Should ask for bigger font on his name bar in effort to get noticed)
  21. D Ben Betker (Big, strong, pretty fast. Raw, interesting blue
  22. D Joey Laleggia (First question: Exactly how much offense does he generate?)
  23. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (How can a former No. 1 overall be a secret weapon?)
  24. C Connor McDavid (These are the good old days. Enjoy them, even before they start)
  25. C Anton Lander (If he can deliver a strong season, the Oilers are going to be good at C)
  26. C Mark Letestu (Swiss Army knife will spend the season at C)
  27. C Leon Draisaitl (He’ll play in the NHL this season. How much?)
  28. C Bogdan Yakimov (Watch the Bakersfield boxscores for Bogdan box cars)
  29. C Jujhar Khaira (Needs to emerge as an offensive option)
  30. C Kyle Platzer (Actual NHL players often make themselves known as AHL rookies)
  31. L Taylor Hall (His next 80-point season could be 2015-16)
  32. L Benoit Pouliot (MacT’s best move? Probably)
  33. L Lauri Korpikoski (I think he’ll be high in the order many nights)
  34. L Matt Hendricks (We shouldn’t expect a season like last one)
  35. L Luke Gazdic (His roster spot to lose)
  36. L Ryan Hamilton (He’ll walk the streets of Bakersfield)
  37. L Anton Slepyshev (If things break right, he could see NHL action)
  38. L Mitch Moroz (Plays like a Bruin, he’s healthy and will get noticed)
  39. L Kale Kessy (If that speed spike last year was no fluke, he’ll be a factor)
  40. R Jordan Eberle (Ridiculous hands, scorer’s touch. Extremely valuable items)
  41. R Nail Yakupov  (Use that hammer, Nail!) (Sorry)
  42. R Teddy Purcell (He’s like a good No. 6 hitter. End of the offense, but a good option)
  43. R Rob Klinkhammer (Crash and bag, he can play. 12-14F)
  44. R Tyler Pitlick (Avoid knee on knee contact Pitlick!)
  45. R Iiro Pakarinen (There’s an opening here)
  46. R Andrew Miller (Perhaps the most skill of the bubbling under RW’s)
  47. R Greg Chase (I hope he runs over people in pre-season. A lot. Get noticed, young man)

 THE REINHART BET

I have heard the argument that Griffin Reinhart must make the team opening night or the trade was a failure and Reinhart’s career as a top 4D is derailed. It’s important to put this fall into context and assess a fluid situation reasonably. Consider:

  • There’s a new coach in Edmonton
  • The Oilers have several established players ahead of anyone with less than one year’s NHL experience (Sekera, Fayne, Klefbom, Schultz, Nikitin, Ference, Gryba).
  • In order for Reinhart (or Nurse, or Davidson) to force their way onto the team, the prospect has to stay healthy and play well—and the veteran must falter or suffer an injury.

The easiest thing in the world for Todd McLellan to do is send Nurse and Reinhart down, forcing them to perform at a high level and fight it out for first recall. Davidson’s issue is a little different, in that he will face waivers if sent out and could be lost for a small fee. Reinhart’s demotion shouldn’t be considered a reflection of his career trajectory, but he needs to establish himself as an NHL player this season. Agree? I’m saying that no matter where he starts this fall, at some point Reinhart needs to play NHL games (a significant number, more than 20) and should arrive by next spring. The easy bet is Nikitin is dealt at the deadline and Reinhart is either already in the NHL or recalled, same day.

Complicating the issue? Darnell Nurse. I think he makes the team ahead of Reinhart, but there’s no shame in that. I was talking to a buddy about just this point yesterday and heard (again) the thought that Reinhart has already been passed by numerous Islanders defensemen on the depth chart.

Let’s look at that for a moment. Griffin Reinhart’s spot on the depth chart last season was clearly behind all of Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey, Lubomir Visnovsky, Calvin De Haan, Brian Strait. The Islanders (correctly) weren’t going to call Reinhart up to sit, so playing every night in the AHL was the best option.

In order for Reinhart to be passed by a prospect, we’d need to see a player selected AFTER him vault into the everyday lineup. Right? Never happened. Reinhart (a 2012 pick) and his 8 NHL games represent the latest draft pick to play in the NHL, and in fact his 8 games is more than Scott Mayfield (a 2011 selection).

I know Reinhart is a divisive figure, but am hopeful people can put aside the reasons for disliking the draft day trade (those things have nothing to do with the player) and view his progress as a prospect without bias. If Reinhart gets sent out during training camp, the hollers on this blog will be loud and long (trust me). I’d urge patience. It’s a marathon not a sprint, and many of you loved the addition of Bob Green not so very long ago.

What’s changed? Nothing. Nothing beyond the Oilers now having three defensive bets (Klefbom, Reinhart, Nurse) from three first rounds (2011, 2012, 2013) with draft pedigree and what looks like a very good future.

locklear1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. I can’t wait to talk about Lou! Lansky will have a great take I’m sure. We’ll also talk PanAm Games and Blue Jays trade deadline.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. A big weekend for the Eddies, and a chance to be in attendance for the first Woodall Cup.
  • Jeff Chapman, Copper and Blue. There are some outstanding free agents still available, and the Oilers could use one or two. Or three! We’ll talk to Jeff about an unusual NHL summer.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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126 Responses to "MIDNIGHT BLUE"

  1. John Chambers says:

    One thing is for sure – how the season starts on the blueline sure as heck ain’t how it’s going to finish.

    By the end of the season I think we’re going to see our defensive depth chart looking like:

    Sekara – Fayne
    Klefbom – Reinhart
    Nurse – Schultz
    Overpaid vet – Gryba

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    LT Love you comments on GR. I feel the same. Snow did an excellent job picking up good experience d-men the week before the season began. Just maybe we can pluck one during this period too.

  3. dustrock says:

    Has anyone asked Klefbom why he wanted to change to #77?

  4. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT,

    Was gearing up for another musical interlude and your next Re: in the series. Guessing that we see that this afternoon now that you’ve finished Round 7. Can’t wait.

    Not for today’s show but sometime soon, I’d love to get an agent on to talk about the arbitration process (those that go ahead and those that don’t). In particular, I’d love a chance to discuss how the NHLPA and League set up the “Comparable Exhibits”. I would love to look over an old one just to see how they are set up. So often the numbers going into (and often coming out of) the arbitration process differ so wildly that you get the impression people are pulling these amounts out of their…but clearly they aren’t.

    Also, you could ask how the NHL’s adoption of “fancy stats” is affecting both the arbitrations themselves and the negotiations leading up to them.

  5. Jordan says:

    dustrock:
    Has anyone asked Klefbom why he wanted to change to #77?

    Oscar’s decided that what he can bring to this team’s defense and differentiate him from the other young defensemen is some gorgeous locks. As the most recent Oiler to have beautiful curls was Tom Gilbert, he needs to show that not only is his hair the best on the Oilers, but better than their last weaveking.

    As such, he has to show up Gilbert by not only having the hair, but keeping his number too.

    It’s a dominance thing.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Not sure where all this is coming from on GR. Every prospect list has him in the top three defensemen prospects in the world, he can skate, hit, pass the puck, is big enough to stop the cycle, has been a captain, understands the city and has one year of AHL experience under his belt. I like his chance of making an impact in the NHL.

  7. oliveoilers says:

    Klef’s agent can point to Brodin, however, the Oilers can point to Subban.

    How about an Actual Bridge Deal(TM)? A two year @ $3M?

    We talk a lot here about gifting things to young players. Klef, on another NHL team, would just be a very, very good prospect, just breaking into the team. Definitely NOT given a contract worth $4.2M AAV. We talk about EARNING things here, not given it de facto.

    And, if Klef’s ceiling is so high, why would he lock himself in like that? Do yer time, shine for two years, then get paid or move on.

    We did very well on the Nuge and Hall, top end for Ebs, but if we do this for every young player that strings together a few game, then that smacks of lazy management. From what I’ve seen, Chia can’t be accused of being lazy.

    No, give him the two years @ 3M, grow with the team, make him want to be here and play for the raise.

    As opposed to giving him the term and money, which might be too much now, but value in three years, after which we can’t afford him.

    Two moves ahead. THAT’S the value contract we should be looking for.

  8. John.L says:

    dustrock,

    I believe he was #7 over in Sweden

  9. Braden88 says:

    By Seasons end, or going into the next season. i think this would be considered a great defensive lineup

    Klefbom – Sekera
    Nurse – Fayne
    Reinhart – Schultz

    Ference -=Gone
    Nikitin = Gone
    Gryba = Retained or Gone

    I think this balances player skill and ability nicely, along with ice time considered. My only question would be when Nurse passes Klefbom as top D. Also i dont know if Schultz will be here next season but I think Reinhart would compliment him nicely. Could be good!

  10. ironsight says:

    oliveoilers,

    You offer the long term deal to Klefbom because every arrow he has points in the right direction, and a short term bridge deal offers no benefit to the team today and no benefit to the team in the future.

    Excellent examples include Brodin (124 NHL GP when he signed 6 x $4.16) and Josi (100 NHL GP when he signed 7 x $4m).

    Of course there is always a risk, but I’d argue that the risk of signing Klef to a long term deal at this stage is far less than the risk the Habs took signing Subban to a bridge deal.

  11. dustrock says:

    John.L: dustrock, I believe he was #7 over in Sweden

    Ah, thanks. Makes sense.

  12. incubo_nero says:

    oliveoilers: Klef’s agent can point to Brodin, however, the Oilers can point to Subban.
    How about an Actual Bridge Deal(TM)? A two year @ $3M?

    The problem with that is it leaves the Oilers in a position to negotiate Klefbom’s first UFA deal at the same time as McDavid’s RFA contract: and I would expect the Oilers would be looking at locking up McDavid for a very long time, at a very high cap hit.
    Even looking at this where salary budget is not a concern, if Klefbom progresses as hoped, do you think his cap hit on that UFA deal will be less or more than Brodin’s current contract? And I guess supporting your answer either way would be an opinion on how Klefbom the player compares to Brodin.

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    oliveoilers:
    Klef’s agent can point to Brodin, however, the Oilers can point to Subban.

    Or the Oilers can point to Brodin, and say, “Yeah, sounds good. You want, what, 80% of that?”

    Klefbom is an impressive player, but I don’t think he’s established a level of play in line with Brodin. Not to say he can’t, but he hasn’t done it yet comparable to what Brodin did in his first full year.

    Different situations, different partners, I get it. I still don’t think you can look at Brodin’s first NHL season and say Klefbom represents 100% value on that.

  14. ironsight says:

    I had posted this on Reinhart before, but I think it bears repeating. As an objective measure, consider this from http://chlstats.pythonanywhere.com/

    2012-13 Reinhart – ESGF% 71% – ranks 1st among regular D in WHL
    2013-14 Reinhart – ESGF% 69% – ranks 4th among regular D in WHL

    2013-14 Nurse – ESGF% 52% – ranks 52nd among regular D in OHL
    2014-15 Nurse – ESGF% 62% – ranks 15th among regular D in OHL

    Obviously there is some context missing here, but the point is that Reinhart, like Nurse, posted some freakish outscoring numbers while playing the toughest available minutes at 5v5.

  15. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    ironsight:
    oliveoilers,

    You offer the long term deal to Klefbom because every arrow he has points in the right direction, and a short term bridge deal offers no benefit to the team today and no benefit to the team in the future.

    Excellent examples include Brodin (124 NHL GP when he signed 6 x $4.16) and Josi (100 NHL GP when he signed 7 x $4m).

    Of course there is always a risk, but I’d argue that the risk of signing Klef to a long term deal at this stage is far less than the risk the Habs took signing Subban to a bridge deal.

    I recall Suban wanting a longer term deal at around $5 million at the time that they opted for the bridge deal.

    Then he won the Norris trophy.

    Oops.

  16. JJ says:

    Not sure if anyone has posted this yet.

    The Detroit development model comes to Toronto. It is what the Oilers should do.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/orlando-solar-bears/2015/7/23/9019313/kyle-dubas-discusses-prospect-development-philosophy

  17. jm363561 says:

    John Chambers:
    One thing is for sure – how the season starts on the blueline sure as heck ain’t how it’s going to finish.

    By the end of the season I think we’re going to see our defensive depth chart looking like:

    Sekara – Fayne
    Klefbom – Reinhart
    Nurse – Schultz
    Overpaid vet – Gryba

    Based entirely on an analysis of how TMac used rookie D in SJ (very sparingly) I would not expect this line up. I would guess that Gryba is a lock on the third pair and Da Nurse and GR partner him for 20 or so games during the season. I would also guess that despite LT’s pleas for patience GR is treated by a good portion of the fan (critic) base as the second coming of the Horcoff contract. Good luck to him.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Klefbom – Sekera
    Nurse – Fayne
    Reinhart – Schultz

    There’s a lot of rookies there, but we need to remember these are not “generic rookies”

    Nurse is tracking a lot like Pietrangelo and he was a difference maker in his first NHL year, which was his draft +3 year.

    Reinhart has a very good year in the AHL when you consider he was playing 1st pair with no PP time. With his pedigree he is tracking to be a good NHLer and he’s at the age where many successfully make the jump.

    The defence is going to be make or break for the Oilers this year.

    If they’re NHL average I think they make the playoffs.

    If they are not, they don’t.

    I’d feel better if they packaged up Schultz with something and got a good RHD. (i.e. to NAS with Yak for Ellis)

    Sekere – Ellis
    Kelfbom – Fayne
    Nurse/Reinhart – Gryba/Nikitin

    Which ever of Nurse or Renhart doesn’t make the team is the first injury call up.

    Ference dealt back to BOS (they one more Dman) for a 5th with $1MM retained.

    NikitinGryba as 7D depending on which one wins the 3RD job.

  19. supernova says:

    Nice words Lowetide on GR.

    The cost of the acquisition matters little it’s now about maximizing the player.

    As those I interact with on Twiter know my #1 target is Adam Larsson in NJ.
    When we talk about Oscar & GR & Nurse an amazing compliment to then would be Larsson.

    I hope to see a Klefbom deal in that range I would do 7 years if I could get that at 4.25.

  20. supernova says:

    Woodguy,

    Ference gone!

    Done deal. Nice post

  21. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    can you imagine the value you’d get out of that Ellis contract?

    I’d love that deal

  22. Pouzar says:

    Renaud Lavoie ‏@renlavoietva 54s55 seconds ago Mont-Tremblant, Québec
    One year contract for Alex Semin with the #canadiens

  23. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Renaud Lavoie ‏@renlavoietva54s55 seconds ago Mont-Tremblant, Québec
    One year contract for Alex Semin with the #canadiens

    $1.1MM for Semin.

    GOOD THING THE OILERS GOT PURCELL AT $4.5MM SO THEY COULDN’T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SEMIN’S LOW PERCEIVED VALUE!!

    THANKS MACT!!!

    I really wish he would go to the business side and golf with Lowe.

  24. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    can you imagine the value you’d get out of that Ellis contract?

    I’d love that deal

    I love Ellis and he’s a great contract.

    That why it would take Schultz + Yak to pry him out but I think its worth it.

    Not a lot of RW in the org to take Yak’s spot though, but D is critical.

  25. Woodguy says:

    supernova:
    Woodguy,

    Ference gone!

    Done deal. Nice post

    Thanks SN.

    When’s the next development post?

  26. misfit says:

    It would be a lot easier to view his progress without bias if the trade that brought him here wasn’t so obviously fueled by it.

    Reinhart is a terrific prospect and acquiring him is a defensible move on merit, but I have a hard time believing the trade happens if Reinhart wasn’t a Bob Green draft pick and captain of the team that won him a WHL/CHL title.

    I definitely don’t want him to fail, and I take no satisfaction in “I told you so”, so I’m fully in his corner as an Oiler prospect. Heck, I probably want him to succeed more than other Oiler prospects because of my fond memories of him with the OKs.

    Whatever the case may be, whether it’s Nurse ahead of Reinhart or Reinhart ahead of Nurse, I hope to see one of them make the roster out of camp. If we’re going to be developing 3 inexperienced (though blue-chip) defenders to be future cornerstones of the defense while trying to be a playoff team, I’d like to space them out a little so that we don’t have multiple players with less than a year’s NHL experience on the every day roster at the same time.

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: I really wish he would go to the business side and golf with Lowe.

    Obviously, MacT still feels he has much to offer.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: I love Ellis and he’s a great contract.

    That why it would take Schultz + Yak to pry him out but I think its worth it.

    Not a lot of RW in the org to take Yak’s spot though, but D is critical.

    Semin gone.

    Could Fehr or Santorelli comfortably take Yak’s spot? Maybe. This would be a case where ideally Barzal/Svechnikov would fill the void in a couple of years.

    I do think a natural C converted to wing would be perfect for McD. Fehr, Santorelli, or Letestu. Guy who can win a faceoff and make a play.

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: $1.1MM for Semin.

    GOOD THING THE OILERS GOT PURCELL AT $4.5MM SO THEY COULDN’T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SEMIN’S LOW PERCEIVED VALUE!!

    THANKS MACT!!!

    I really wish he would go to the business side and golf with Lowe.

    Yup.

    So many replacements that could be made right now and they’re just blocked off because of these albatross contracts.

  30. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: $1.1MM for Semin.

    GOOD THING THE OILERS GOT PURCELL AT $4.5MM SO THEY COULDN’T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SEMIN’S LOW PERCEIVED VALUE!!

    THANKS MACT!!!

    I really wish he would go to the business side and golf with Lowe.

    It’s not all MacT. At that price they could have bought out Purcell, replaced him with Alex Semin, and still saved money on the cap this year (though admittedly not next year). Maybe Chia wasn’t interested. Or maybe Semin didn’t want to go out West. Or maybe Chia really doesn’t want to have any extra cap hit for the 2016/17 season (though that doesn’t explain the Korpikoski trade).

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil: Or maybe Chia really doesn’t want to have any extra cap hit for the 2016/17 season (though that doesn’t explain the Korpikoski trade).

    or the Letestu signing

  32. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LMHF#1: Yup.

    So many replacements that could be made right now and they’re just blocked off because of these albatross contracts.

    I’m normally right at the front of the line for defending people that are ripped on in the media for attitude problems.

    But man, Semin, I don’t know. So much smoke there, coming from reporters, coaches, fellow players, across many years and several teams.

    We’ve got a young core, and while I think the whole “Schucks, we’ve got to teach these pups how to be GOOD CANADIAN BOYS” is a totally overblown narrative, I also think avoiding guys like Semin and Ribiero makes sense.

    If they could be massive difference makers it would be another story, but Semin has been struggling for a while. That intensity of smoke, whether there is fire or not, is worth avoiding in my book.

  33. Truth says:

    Woodguy: $1.1MM for Semin.

    GOOD THING THE OILERS GOT PURCELL AT $4.5MM SO THEY COULDN’T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SEMIN’S LOW PERCEIVED VALUE!!

    THANKS MACT!!!

    I really wish he would go to the business side and golf with Lowe.

    It would be interesting to see how Semin and Yak co-exist on a team together. Yak always gets credit for being one of the hardest workers off the ice and in practice, Semin known for the exact opposite. Yak wishes to be a 30 goal scorer in the league, Semin seemingly will score 30 if he feels like it. Both would be lumped together as Russian compatriots, however their backgrounds and beliefs are different.

  34. speeds says:

    The Semin contract highlights part of the “problem” I have with the Gordon/Letestu moves. The Oilers could have kept Gordon, probably could have signed Semin and the total cost would have been around the same money as Letestu and Korpikoski but with more flexibility going forward.

    No, you couldn’t have counted on being able to sign Semin to that deal back when those moves were made, but pretty much every year there are some deals for F’s once it gets to mid July.

  35. LMHF#1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m normally right at the front of the line for defending people that are ripped on in the media for attitude problems.

    But man, Semin, I don’t know.So much smoke there, coming from reporters, coaches, fellow players, across many years and several teams.

    We’ve got a young core, and while I think the whole “Schucks, we’ve got to teach these pups how to be GOOD CANADIAN BOYS” is a totally overblown narrative, I also think avoiding guys like Semin and Ribiero makes sense.

    If they could be massive difference makers it would be another story, but Semin has been struggling for a while.That intensity of smoke, whether there is fire or not, is worth avoiding in my book.

    But 1.1 mil for the chance that he might score 30+ vs 4.5 on Purcell is a no-brainer, just as you could easily replace Nikitin and Ference with reasonable players, probably for less money, if they could actually be moved out. So many wasted dollars.

  36. supernova says:

    Woodguy: Thanks SN.

    When’s the next development post?

    Woodguy,

    Just putting the finishing touches on it.

    Having lots of fun outdoors last few weeks.

  37. Ducey says:

    The is no flippin’ way I would want Semin on the Oilers.

    He is 31 and on the decline. He got the easiest zone starts on CAR last year and has for a few years. He started a full 39.4 % of the time in the OZ. That tells me the coach knows he can’t play defense.

    Despite cherry zone starts he only put up 19 points in 58 games and generated a pathetic 93 shots. He was 11th in points/ 60 on CAR.

    And you get all this with an indifferent attitude and soft play.

    MTL can probably use him in an easy zone start, soft competition role and hope he rebounds. EDM has lots of young players they need to give those minutes to.

  38. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bohologo,

    Yeah, I get that he’s not all bad. Heck, he’s a nice guy. I’m not sure that translates to playing hard though.

    I’ve got all day to stick up for Penner, or Hemsky, or Yak, lots of guys. But Semin has a list of people that have called him out a mile long. It can’t be total BS.

    Here’s another fun thought:

    What do you do with Semin and that contract? If I’m Montreal I’m almost praying for mediocre performance.

    He’s got a boat load of potential, no question. So what if he scores 30 goals? It’s a huge value contract for this year, for sure.

    Of course, that’s what happened in Carolina. Washington gets rid of him primarily due to his attitude, Carolina acquires him and he puts up 1.0ppg. So they sign him for 7 years at (I believe) $7 million per year.

    Oops.

    So what does MTL do if he scores 30 goals or 1ppg? He’s going to expect a big contract with term. Do they walk away? Human nature won’t make that easy, especially for a team that has had trouble scoring goals.

    People will say “trade him at the deadline” or “sign him to another short deal” but both of those scenarios are super unlikely. If he performs well they won’t trade him because they won’t be deadline sellers. Likewise if he performs well he’s not giving you a short term or a discount next time around. It’ll be a shit-or-get-off-the-pot situation and it’s going to be a total coinflip for that organization.

    Not to say it’s a bad thing if he goes out and performs, just that it creates a very interesting situation for Montreal.

    LMHF#1,

    It’s not a no brainer though, because it’s a risk that he actually performs, and it creates a cap hit for next year that doesn’t need to be there.

    Also, it’s not like we went out and signed Purcell to that contract. Purcell is simply replacing the Gagner dollars. So like most things Oilers related, this is all Sam Gagner’s fault.

  39. Oddspell says:

    supernova: Ference gone!

    The danger of reading the comments section from the bottom up. My poor heart can’t take this roller coaster of emotions.

  40. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m normally right at the front of the line for defending people that are ripped on in the media for attitude problems.

    But man, Semin, I don’t know.So much smoke there, coming from reporters, coaches, fellow players, across many years and several teams.

    We’ve got a young core, and while I think the whole “Schucks, we’ve got to teach these pups how to be GOOD CANADIAN BOYS” is a totally overblown narrative, I also think avoiding guys like Semin and Ribiero makes sense.

    If they could be massive difference makers it would be another story, but Semin has been struggling for a while.That intensity of smoke, whether there is fire or not, is worth avoiding in my book.

    Agreed. I think he’ll rebound somewhat in points, but adding a questionable player to such a young locker room isn’t ideal. As well we need more 2-way players to play with the offensive dynamos so he really wouldn’t fit. He’d just be another vet blocking a spot that he may not have earned. I’d much rather sign Fehr for that price and have him play a Pouliot role.

  41. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: It’s not all MacT. At that price they could have bought out Purcell, replaced him with Alex Semin, and still saved money on the cap this year (though admittedly not next year). Maybe Chia wasn’t interested. Or maybe Semin didn’t want to go out West. Or maybe Chia really doesn’t want to have any extra cap hit for the 2016/17 season (though that doesn’t explain the Korpikoski trade).

    ITS ALL ON MACT

    DON’T MESS WITH MY NARRATIVE!!

    Seriously, letting Nikitin and Purcell’s contracts are the best course of action for those two.

  42. Ben says:

    Truth: It would be interesting to see how Semin and Yak co-exist on a team together. Yak always gets credit for being one of the hardest workers off the ice and in practice,Semin known for the exact opposite.Yak wishes to be a 30 goal scorer in the league, Semin seemingly will score 30 if he feels like it.Both would be lumped together as Russian compatriots, however their backgrounds and beliefs are different.

    Yeah, you could play Pouliot with them.

    There would be more Yak, Poo, and Semin on the ice than a Motel 6 duvet.

  43. Ribs says:

    *gets ten foot pole to poke Semin with*

    *thinks about it first*

    *places pole on the ground*

  44. commonfan14 says:

    misfit: Whatever the case may be, whether it’s Nurse ahead of Reinhart or Reinhart ahead of Nurse, I hope to see one of them make the roster out of camp.

    Imagine if it ends up being Musil.

    People would be flumuxed.

  45. One-Timer says:

    jm363561: Based entirely on an analysis of how TMac used rookie D in SJ (very sparingly) I would not expect this line up. I would guess that Gryba is a lock on the third pair and Da Nurse and GR partner him for 20 or so games during the season. I would also guess that despite LT’s pleas for patience GR is treated by a good portion of the fan (critic) base as the second coming of the Horcoff contract. Good luck to him.

    Just from a personal safety point of view, I would not want to be on the ice against Gryba-Nurse. That would be the “MRI Shift.”

  46. John Chambers says:

    speeds:
    The Semin contract highlights part of the “problem” I have with the Gordon/Letestu moves. The Oilers could have kept Gordon, probably could have signed Semin and the total cost would have been around the same money as Letestu and Korpikoski but with more flexibility going forward.

    No, you couldn’t have counted on being able to sign Semin to that deal back when those moves were made, but pretty much every year there are some deals for F’s once it gets to mid July.

    Semin probably delivers better than his cap hit, but I’d prefer to give his at-bats to Yakupov.

  47. misfit says:

    At $1.1M, Purcell’s presence on the team didn’t prevent us from signing Semin to an identical deal. We could’ve offered him double and still had room.

    We didn’t add Semin because we didn’t want Semin. Purcell and MacT have nothing to do with it.

  48. Richard S.S. says:

    There are still Teams that are not Cap Compliant, possibly until the last few hours. Chances are very good the players they will move/might move are better, to much better than who is remaining on the Free Agent List. With the uncertainties existing in the Economy, dollars being spent are be watched very closely. Teams will do their best to get two or more dollars of value back for every dollar spent. None of this matters if an Owner gets stupid, desperate or both.

    Signing Oscar Klefbom will take a huge leap of faith by Peter Chiarelli. Relying one someone else to determine his action. I don’t think he’s seen enough of Klefbom to be comfortable making a deal without consulting others, including McTavish.

    Everyone expects the Oiler to have $15.0 -$20.0 Million in Cap Space next offseason, but there a slight problem. It doesn’t exist. Kelfbom’s $4.0-ish MM, Goalies’ $4.5-ish MM, Schultz’s $5.0-ish MM leaves very little left. So that means Chiarelli must be very sure he’s getting max value in every deal he makes.

  49. Snowman says:

    I don’t really understand the hate for Purcell. He’s slow and soft but he’s a useful NHLer. His contract is a bit expensive for what he brings but he’s a productive actual legit NHLer. He can play with skill.

    When he was brought in we did not have enough of any of that stuff. It’s important to also place some context of the acquisition when evaluating the “albatrossity” of the contract. I don’t view Purcell’s contract anywhere near as bad Nikitin or Ference.

    It was an overpay for sure. Was it a crippling overpay like Ference and NN? I don’t think so. 40 point players probably make 3+ million.

  50. Магия 10 says:

    Coyotes agree to new lease. Can move to Seattle in 2 years.

    http://www.cbc.ca/m/sports/hockey/nhl/coyotes-glendale-agree-to-amend-arena-lease-1.3165342

  51. Snowman says:

    Richard S.S.,

    I’m not even sure how to read the Schultz $5M and Klefbom $4M. Are you talking about Justin Schultz? If he gets $5M for his next contract I’ll eat my shoes.

    Schultz isn’t even a $3M dman. If it comes down to Schultz or Klefbom, It’s not close. I choose Klefbom all day.

  52. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Snowman,

    I think part of it also has to do with the market this year. There are still some good players available and Purcell is eating a lot of cap. Had we not won the lottery there may have been the patience to let it die, but now people are wanting to turn north now and $4.5M hurts that. Player wise that money could get Ehrhoff or Franson or to “help” another team be cap compliant. I like Purcell and have no problems with him as player, just wish he had a bit more speed and less cost. But it really was him or Gagner so the cap was really already gone.

  53. DBO says:

    This is a year to grow and be more competitive. it also is a year to shed some dead weight and salary so that next year we are truly playoff ready, and have cap space. Purcell and Nikitin (good article on Nikitin at copper and blue fyi) can be moved at deadline (pump and dump. Nikitin on PP, and Purcell with McDavid) or let contract run out. Ference will be bought out next year (he wasn’t this year because it would have spilled his contract over into McDavid’s new deal) . And having Nurse and Reinhart as your top pair in the minors playing a ton, and bring them up when injuries hit (not to mention saving bonus issues for next year) which is the best case. Accept that we are not winning the cup this year. This is still a development year. And one full year, or half year in the AHL for Nurse and Reinhart is not a disappointment. it is a solid development strategy. it can only benefit us long term.

    then next year:

    Sekera-Fayne (tough minutes)
    Nurse – Klefbom (the future of awesome and playing in all zones. soon to be our top pair)
    Reinhart – Schultz (softer minutes, but Reinhart is the perfect complement to Schultz).

    That may be young, but it is similar to Anaheim’s this past year and since we are gunning for the cup in 2-3 years, that D can get there if allowed to develop and the players are put in the right position to win.

  54. Doug McLachlan says:

    Магия 10: Coyotes agree to new lease. Can move to Seattle in 2 years.http://www.cbc.ca/m/sports/hockey/nhl/coyotes-glendale-agree-to-amend-arena-lease-1.3165342

    Can’t get the link to work but Katie Strang of ESPN would seem to have the details as well:
    http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/13307716/arizona-coyotes-glendale-reach-resolution-arena-dispute

    Coyotes had been getting $15M per year in management fees, that becomes $6.5M. The 15yr agreement becomes a 2yr agreement. The “lose $50M, 5yr out-clause” has disappeared but as the lease only lasts 2 years, the team is actually MORE transferable now.

    The Coyotes and Suns will discuss the prospect of a new downtown arena (which is where it should have been all along – or in Scottsdale) and the Seattle rumours will start up again especially after Bartoszek was summoned to meet with Bettman following the non-expansion bids from all three Seattle groups. http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/22/report-bartoszek-a-k-a-the-tukwila-guy-invited-to-speak-with-nhl/

    Interesting.

  55. stephen sheps says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    or the Letestu signing

    what exactly is wrong with a local product who can play all three F positions and is a bit younger/cheaper than the guy he replaced? I’m admittedly sad about trading Gordon, but what’s wrong with Letestu exactly? Sometimes it seems like as a fanbase, we’ve become so used to shit decision making that we invent stuff to grumble about. No offence intended LLS, but this comment of yours feels like one of those times.

  56. stephen sheps says:

    DBO:
    This is a year to grow and be more competitive. it also is a year to shed some dead weight and salary so that next year we are truly playoff ready, and have cap space. Purcell and Nikitin (good article on Nikitin at copper and blue fyi) can be moved at deadline (pump and dump. Nikitin on PP, and Purcell with McDavid) or let contract run out. Ference will be bought out next year (he wasn’t this year because it would have spilled his contract over into McDavid’s new deal) . And having Nurse and Reinhart as your top pair in the minors playing a ton, and bring them up when injuries hit (not to mention saving bonus issues for next year) which is the best case. Accept that we are not winning the cup this year. This is still a development year. And one full year, or half year in the AHL for Nurse and Reinhart is not a disappointment. it is a solid development strategy. it can only benefit us long term.

    then next year:

    Sekera-Fayne (tough minutes)
    Nurse – Klefbom (the future of awesome and playing in all zones. soon to be our top pair)
    Reinhart – Schultz (softer minutes, but Reinhart is the perfect complement to Schultz).

    That may be young, but it is similar to Anaheim’s this past year and since we are gunning for the cup in 2-3 years, that D can get there if allowed to develop and the players are put in the right position to win.

    This, all day long. Well said DBO.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Tom Gilbert
    Age 24 to 28 57.07 Ca/60
    29 to 31 54.35 Ca/60

    Klefbom
    age 20 58.83
    Age 21 54.40

    Schultz
    age 22-23 63.95
    age 24 55.66
    they asked him to develop strength and concentrate on Developing Defence.

    Davidson 59.73
    w/ aulie 73.53
    w/ schultz 43.13
    w/ fayne 42.11

    Oesterle 52.31

    Nikitin 54.98
    w/ fayne 52.75
    w/ schultz 60.13
    w/ petry 54.73
    w/ marincin 53.01

    Anonymous:

    Erhoff
    age 29-32 56.63

    Franson
    age 22-24 52.25
    age 25-27 60.52

    Hedja
    age 28 oilers
    age 29-30 49.07
    People complained about not retaining our best Def Dman.
    49.07 CA/60

    In a cap world ,
    you need strong CA/60 d with a strong Ca/60 curve goalie.
    Talbot is top 5
    Hiller is top 3
    the less EVGA
    the cheaper the cap hit forwards who can outscore the Defence.

  58. RexLibris says:

    Jooris settles with Calgary for $975,000.

    Nice contract.

    At this rate, I’d be surprised is the Giordano extension exceeds $7 million or five years.

    Treliving must be Hypnotoad in negotiations.

  59. kinger_OIL says:

    There are two part to the Semin conversation:

    1) Recall the OIL suck, and are not going to be playoffs next year: a team like MTL can take the risk on Semin, and if it works it takes them to another level, at no cost. If he sucks, they are still going to be good. On the OIL if he sucks, it doesn’t help an OIL team that already sucks (and hopes not to), and takes away from the players who management believes might be with this team when they don’t suck. And he’s not part of the OIL long-term solution

    2) The bad contracts don’t have any bearing on Semin and signing him.

  60. Doug McLachlan says:

    RexLibris,

    Thought they overpaid for Bouma yesterday, especially given how much of an outlier last year was for Bouma.

    Like this signing a lot for the Flames.

    While I’m sure they’d match, wondering what the price would be on Ferland. He didn’t go to arbitration which makes him eligible for an offer-sheet. Is he worth a 3rd round pick? Probably is but how much do you risk on him in terms of $ and term?

  61. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris:

    Treliving must be Hypnotoad in negotiations.

    Bouma must have been immune.

  62. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: Bouma must have been immune.

    That’s not the worst contract for them to carry. Bouma gets buried in ZS and, outside of his ridiculous sh% last season, manages well enough.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Truth: Both would be lumped together as Russian compatriots, however their backgrounds and beliefs are different.

    They did that to me at college. Stuck me to share a dorm room with someone they figured I’d get along with due to nationality. We hated each other on sight, lol. Fortunately(for me) he got himself transferred somewhere else, leaving me with the cockroaches.

  64. RexLibris says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    RexLibris,

    Thought they overpaid for Bouma yesterday, especially given how much of an outlier last year was for Bouma.

    Like this signing a lot for the Flames.

    While I’m sure they’d match, wondering what the price would be on Ferland.He didn’t go to arbitration which makes him eligible for an offer-sheet.Is he worth a 3rd round pick?Probably is but how much do you risk on him in terms of $ and term?

    Ferland is largely untested and if you check his placement on the vollman sledgehammer you can see that he was playing soft minutes.

    I don’t see offer sheeting Ferland right now as all that beneficial because to do any real damage to their cap space you’d need to forfeit more than he is worth at the moment or may ever be.

    Oilers fans will hate him, but he still has a long way to go.

  65. Spoils says:

    Is Chiarelli drinking the Schultz is a top 4 guy kool-aid?

    are we really starting the year with this defense?

    I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilcRS5eUpwk

  66. rickithebear says:

    John Chambers: Semin probably delivers better than his cap hit, but I’d prefer to give his at-bats to Yakupov.

    Semin
    10-11 WSH (26) 65gm 28G 26A 54P +22
    11-12 WSH (27) 77gm 21G 33A 54P +9
    12-13 CAR (28) 44gm 13G 31A 44PT +14
    13-14 CAR (29) 65gm 22G 20A 42P +1
    —————————————————–
    Averaged 70gm 23.5G 30.5A 54PT +13
    Francis part owner made GM. hired Bill peters as Coach.
    14-15 CAR (30) 57gm 6G 13A 19P -10

    Yakupov
    Non Eakins
    12-13
    48gm 17G 14A 31P -4
    14-15 post all-star
    29gm 9G 11A 20P -14 -.482G/gm is brutal

    Minors are for def Development!

  67. Bank Shot says:

    RexLibris:
    Jooris settles with Calgary for $975,000.

    Nice contract.

    At this rate, I’d be surprised is the Giordano extension exceeds $7 million or five years.

    Treliving must be Hypnotoad in negotiations.

    I think Jooris will be lucky to be in the NHL by the end of next season. He scored 7.41 p/60 on the PP. That’s not happening again.

    The guy got out to a fast start and used it to gain leverage on a team with poor forward depth. His offense died right off as the season progressed.

    Jooris is probably just happy to get a one way contract, as he should be.

    As for Treliving being hypnotoad, Engellend and his $3 million per season disagrees.

  68. RexLibris says:

    Bank Shot: I think Jooris will be lucky to be in the NHL by the end of next season. He scored 7.41 p/60 on the PP. That’s not happening again.

    The guy got out to a fast start and used it to gain leverage on a team with poor forward depth. His offense died right off as the season progressed.

    Jooris is probably just happy to get a one way contract, as he should be.

    As for Treliving being hypnotoad, Engellend and his $3 million per season disagrees.

    Ha, the Engelland contract was/is atrocious.

    I think that was Burke. Treliving was new to the spot and when they lost out on Fayne I think Burke steered him to Engelland and he just went “meh, whatever”.

    Yeah, Jooris looks like a flash in the pan kind of guy. He might put up some decent numbers this year, but he’s going to get squeezed for ice time by Bennett and others very soon and I don’t think he has the horses to keep up.

    We had one of those. His name was Ryan Jones and MacTavish re-signed him to give him a chance after an eye-injury. I wonder if that was taken from the same “chance” jar that ran dry when Petry needed a new contract?

  69. RexLibris says:

    Speaking of bad contracts.

    Go to the vollman sledgehammer.

    Check the Calgary D.

    Look for Smid.

    I hope he gets healthy enough to retire on his own terms before injury forces the issue.

  70. grim.oil says:

    Sekera—Klefbom … Because Klef can play Rightside and who better to pair him with.
    Reinhorse—Schultz … Because for every reason we hate Schultz we will love the Horse.
    Fayne—Gryba … Because shut-down
    Davidson—Nikitin

    Ference in the press box. Who cares if he still has the C.

    P.S. Semin is a waste. Except when he is on a ‘show me what you got’ 1-year deal. He put up 84 in 73 with Washington on a 1 year followed by 2 years of 50+. Then he put up 44 in 44 (shortened season) with Carolina before getting his 7mill. Now he sucks again and no one will draft him. I will swoop in at the end of the draft and take him. Then trade him in the offseason to the first sucker that lights up their eyes.

  71. Woodguy says:

    misfit:
    At $1.1M, Purcell’s presence on the team didn’t prevent us from signing Semin to an identical deal.We could’ve offered him double and still had room.

    We didn’t add Semin because we didn’t want Semin.Purcell and MacT have nothing to do with it.

    Roster spot

    Its Purcell’s roster spot.

  72. rickithebear says:

    Nikitin’s year:
    Eakins
    8gm 1G 2A +2
    injured/returns
    14gm 1G 1A -8
    injured/returns
    Nelson
    12gm 1G 2A -3
    injured/retiurns
    8gm 1G 1A -3

    I like uninjured Nikitin.

  73. speeds says:

    Woodguy: Roster spot

    Its Purcell’s roster spot.

    Or Gazdic or Pitlick’s spot

  74. Hammers says:

    I don’t see it as a risk playing Klef, Nurse Reinhart when you consider what we played the last 8 years . This bs about there to young is crazy when you consider the options of Ference, Nikitin . Let this group grow together . Now if you can bring in actual players you bring the youth along slowly .

  75. grim.oil says:

    rickithebear,

    So 4 goals, 6 assists, -12 in 42 games. You like this….
    Go home Rick, your drunk!

  76. rickithebear says:

    grim.oil: P.S. Semin is a waste. Except when he is on a ‘show me what you got’

    Yeah the 10-11; 12-13; 13-14 year average of
    67gm 24g 31A 55pt +14

    I wish Yak sucked lie this!

  77. rickithebear says:

    grim.oil:
    rickithebear,

    So 4 goals, 8 assists, -12 in 42 games. You like this….
    Go home Rick, your drunk!

    Uninjured?
    8gm 1G 2A +2

    what is that over 72gm
    9G 18A +18

    Yup I would F……….. hate that.

  78. Younger Oil says:

    Do you think we could get Klefbom on the Josi contract? 7 years @ $4M per?

  79. viking chug says:

    Hey all. I have been an obsessive reader here for a long time. About time I get in the posting mix. I moved to Vancouver in the summer of 2006 after being in Etown for the unlikely run. Made my way to the Oilers bar full of hope and the intoxicating mixture of novelty and comfort that comes with moving but realizing home isn’t just geographical. There have been dark clouds over me, the Black Frog and its die-hard denizens for almost every agonizing moment since. Like Charlie coming to the aid of a malevolent, zenless Pigpen, I have been defending an organization harassed by fleas, both real and imagined, throughout this playoff drought. The trees have been eating my kites. There have been highlights though. Went crazy with the rest of the Oil faithful bellied up to the hardwood when Hemsky tied it after Stefan’s empty-net blunder (and a rare hockey Gord bounce). Watched Eberle’s amazing debut goal and Big Mac destroying Ivanans before that season had the football pulled from the placekicker’s spot. As part of a small (but VOCAL!) group bitterly cheering for the Bruins in 2011’s game 7 (surrounded by Nuck fans, both real and imagined), I got to see orca jerseys come off and be stuffed sourly in bags after the second period and spent my riot-time in a drunken bliss, trying to stop my yappier buddies from getting beaten. More recently I worked the door of the Frog for Ryan Smyth’s last night and watched a packed house give the big screen a tearful standing ovation. Also worked the door for the draft which was governed by a different emotional meter. Goosebump moments aside, it’s been hard to listen to the haters. Most of the time they were justified given what the OBC has been up to and how good the Nucks have been for most of the time I’ve been out here. Lonely, disillusioned and needing internet commiseration, I found my way here and I don’t think I have come across a site that has taught me as much as this one has, about hockey, stats and life in general. I feel like I’ve known some of you for a long time and I am truly grateful. The clouds are parting and the bandwagon is about to get crowded. If you are ever in Van city come to the Frog and if I am there…beers on me. Wooooot (!) indeed.

  80. grim.oil says:

    rickithebear,

    You forgot about the 3 times he came back from injury. That counts even if he was playing injured. He and/or the team obviously thought he was uninjured enough. Over 72 games its more like 18 points.

    As for Semin, you took that right out of context. Then you forgot he was putting up those numbers you wish Yak would put up playing with Ovie and Backstrom.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear: Uninjured?
    8gm 1G 2A+2

    what is that over 72gm
    9G 18A +18

    Yup I would F……….. hate that.

    if we pick a split we like and push a narrative, we can love any oiler

    Yak 26 goal pace with Nelson, I would hate that!
    Pouliot gets a hatttrick, 246 goal full season pace!

  82. russ99 says:

    With the additions of Sekera, Gryba and yes Reinhart, we don’t need to rush Nurse like so many other of our top prospects.

    I’d like to see him get a half-year finishing in Bakersfield, since that extra development in a tough men’s league has helped so many defensemen take the next step.

    Worse case is starting Nurse and having to send him back down because he’s not really ready or have him get hurt when the physical toll of playing in the NHL gets to be too much for him. As imposing as he looks, he’s still only 20 years old.

    It’s odd to finally say this, but I have faith that our coach and GM will do the right thing, and one of those things is not to put too much stock into rookie camp performances where he had a distinct physical advantage.

  83. stush18 says:

    Ducey:
    The is no flippin’ way I would want Semin on the Oilers.

    He is 31 and on the decline.He got the easiest zone starts on CAR last year and has for a few years.He started a full 39.4 % of the time in the OZ.That tells me the coach knows he can’t play defense.

    Despite cherry zone starts he only put up 19 points in 58 games and generated a pathetic 93 shots.He was 11th in points/ 60 on CAR.

    And you get all this with an indifferent attitude and soft play.

    MTL can probably use him in an easy zone start, soft competition role and hope he rebounds.EDM has lots of young players they need to give those minutes to.

    Excuse me if I’m wrong, but if he started 39% in the ozone, doesn’t that mean he was starting 61% in the dzone?

    For some reason I think I’m screwing this up, but it’s how I’m reading it.

  84. Ducey says:

    rickithebear: Yeah the 10-11; 12-13; 13-14 year average of67gm 24g 31A 55pt +14 I wish Yak sucked lie this!

    Ricki,

    Maybe you need to compare the same years to those of Purcell’s

    Your man Semin went 54,54, 44, 42, 19
    Purcell went 51, 65, 36, 42, 34

    Not much, if any difference – except last year – which tends to be important.

  85. Ducey says:

    stush18: Excuse me if I’m wrong, but if he started 39% in the ozone, doesn’t that mean he was starting 61% in the dzone?For some reason I think I’m screwing this up, but it’s how I’m reading it.

    No. He started 39.4% in the OZ, 26.2 % DZ (the least of any forward) and 34.4% in the Neutral Zone.

    Lots of the smarter people around here do a ratio of OZ/DZ but I think neutral zone starts are important to count too.

  86. Woodguy says:

    misfit,

    At $1.1M, Purcell’s presence on the team didn’t prevent us from signing Semin to an identical deal. We could’ve offered him double and still had room

    Not really.

    They only show $2.88MM in cap room right now and that NOT taking into account CMD’s performance bonuses which total $2.85MM

    I would expect him to attain all the bonuses so it is prudent to account for those this year to avoid penalty next year.

  87. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Ricki,

    Those too

  88. Hammers says:

    3 years from now when we are fighting for a cup who do you see on our D . Sekera ,Schultz , Klef , Nurse , Reinhart , Simpson , Musil ,Ooesterle & Davidson or a trade or two . Somehow I only see 4 of those players still here , maybe 5 but we will still need a couple more D . Davidson / Musil may slot in as a 6/7 while Nurse/ Klef could be a top pairing or at least 2 of 3 . Will Reinhart / Simpson make a pairing . Just thinking what management has to ponder over . Not as easy as many think especially when you have a cap to worry about , who you keep , who you pay , who to cut loose or trade .

  89. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Hammers,

    Sekera will probably still be here.

    There will be players over the age of 30 at key positions on that hockey team. There always are.

  90. viking chug says:

    I think the path for the D prospects in the Oiler system is a pretty steep grade. Unfortunately for Musil, Simpson, Davidson, Betker, Gernat, Lagesson, Leveille (if signed) etc. the path is clogged league-wide as scouting, analytics and the success of the Detroit model amplify the availability of bottom pairing defensemen. This trend doesn’t only apply to dmen but to paraphrase a clueless exec, we have a lot of them. I think we are already seeing an increase in the expectation that a draft pick will have success as drafting/development improves. The increase in competition around the NHL will see a higher number of better dmen fighting for limited spots. Maybe we are already seeing it with the number of serviceable dmen still looking for contracts as more teams look for cheap, internal solutions. It would be wise to get out in front of this trend (if true) and get some picks (if possible) before the glut is obvious and value disappears.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kyle Dubas on Darnell Nurse: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.”

    Derek Laxdal on Griffin Reinhart: “We’ll challenge our guys to step up and defend against their big line. The key for us is going to be getting Griff out against them. I thought Griff did an outstanding job tonight. It just shows you what type of defenceman he’s going to be in the National Hockey League. That’s going to be his role.”

  92. blainer says:

    John Chambers:
    One thing is for sure – how the season starts on the blueline sure as heck ain’t how it’s going to finish.

    By the end of the season I think we’re going to see our defensive depth chart looking like:

    Sekara – Fayne
    Klefbom – Reinhart
    Nurse – Schultz
    Overpaid vet – Gryba

    </blockq

    THAT will happen by Xmas .. Freence and NN or both out with concussions

  93. LoDog says:

    Ducey: No.He started 39.4% in the OZ, 26.2 % DZ (the least of any forward) and 34.4% in the Neutral Zone.

    Lots of the smarter people around here do a ratio of OZ/DZ but I think neutral zone starts are important to count too.

    As you should. Lumping NZ into OZ can really give a false picture.

  94. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    misfit,

    At $1.1M, Purcell’s presence on the team didn’t prevent us from signing Semin to an identical deal. We could’ve offered him double and still had room

    Not really.

    They only show $2.88MM in cap room right now and that NOT taking into account CMD’s performance bonuses which total $2.85MM

    Iwould expect him to attain all the bonuses so it is prudent to account for those this year to avoid penalty next year.

    Looks to me like LT has included McJesus’ caphit in his calculations.

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    the hockey gods will bust Nurse and make Reinhart the next Chara just to stick it to some of the nosepickers in here

  96. Revolved says:

    Chia is responsible for acquiring Sekera, Reinhart and Gryba, which makes them virtual locks for roster spots. He also didn’t get rid of Ference, Nikitin or Klefbom, Fayne or Schultz. That makes them our NHL D next year, I hope they spread out the vets thusly:

    Sekera – Schultz
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Reinhart – Gryba
    Ference – Nikitin

    If competing for anything is in our foreseeable future, we will have Sekera, Fayne, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart still around. Let’s hope they all work out!

  97. spoiler says:

    LoDog: As you should. Lumping NZ into OZ can really give a false picture.

    This drum a long time I beat.

    More information is always better than less.

    They don’t lump NZ in, but excluding it all together also gives a false picture.

    Excluding the NZ skews whichever Zone is getting the most higher, unless you understand the numbers and don’t get sensationalized by them.

    Schultz, for eg,, took a tremendous number of NZ starts last year, so his OZ push looks worse than it is. He actually took the 3rd most DZ starts on the team last year.

  98. Richard S.S. says:

    Snowman,

    Despite any personal wishes to the contrary, if the Justin Schultz’s talked about offseason improvements are real next year, someone will give him around $5.0 Million per year, the next year. If Chiarelli wants to keep him, he might get him for less. If none of the aforementioned happen, he walks or is traded. But until you know for absolutely sure that he’s not staying, you must provide for his possible Cap hit going forth. You don’t want to know what I consider people that don’t.

    My list of three: Schultz @ $5.0 MM, Klefbom @ $4.0 MM (maybe more) and Goalies (2) @ $5.0 MM is just rough figures to explain to people that all that Cap Space they are expecting next off season might be a myth.

  99. RexLibris says:

    Dellow is doing some fine work on the twitter today:

    Hon. mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 11m11 minutes ago

    My phone background is a tweet from last year saying that the analytics movement is rolling like Soviet bolshevism crushing those who differ
    1 retweet 0 favorites

    Hon. mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 10m10 minutes ago

    Say what you will about people who find this stuff useless but they’re destroying us in terms of apocalyptic imagery.

  100. Jordan says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Kyle Dubas on Darnell Nurse: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.”

    Derek Laxdal on Griffin Reinhart: “We’ll challenge our guys to step up and defend against their big line. The key for us is going to be getting Griff out against them. I thought Griff did an outstanding job tonight. It just shows you what type of defenceman he’s going to be in the National Hockey League. That’s going to be his role.”

    You know Bruce, it almost sounds like both players might have a future playing the toughs. There’s been a lot of talk about how Nurse is going to make quite the impression on camp in the fall.

    What happens if both players do?

    What if, based on play out of training camp, our D depth chart looks like this:

    Nurse – Sekera
    Klefbom – Reinhart
    Davidson – Fayne

    That would leave Nikitin, Schultz, Ferrence, and Gryba all fighting for the 7th (maybe 8th) roster spot, and at least 2 players going to play in the minors – of which Ferrence could not be one, due to the NMC.

    Now, I’m not convinced this is likely, but considering how poorly some players played last year, if that’s their established level of ability… it’s not an inconceivable situation.

  101. Lewis Grant says:

    Can someone explain to me why Klefbom is any more of a sure thing than Marincin was at this point last year? Everybody around here had him pencilled in on the second pairing, even as I was trying to remind us of LT’s wise counsel: “defensemen develop by sundial”.

    Brodin finished something like 5th in Calder voting. Klef wasn’t even on the radar. Now we want to pay him $25M?

    I like our D in three years (if we can afford them). Today, it’s still one of the bottom 5 in the league.

  102. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Looks to me like LT has included McJesus’ caphit in his calculations.

    Right.

    That’s only if Chia makes the same decisions as LT though.(i.e. Nurse, Reinhart, DrySaddle start in AHL)

  103. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    He is 31 and on the decline. He got the easiest zone starts on CAR last year and has for a few years. He started a full 39.4 % of the time in the OZ. That tells me the coach knows he can’t play defense.
    Despite cherry zone starts he only put up 19 points in 58 games and generated a pathetic 93 shots. He was 11th in points/ 60 on CAR.
    And you get all this with an indifferent attitude and soft play.

    No time to do something more detailed, but you know this stuff so:

    Last 3 years of Semin:

    PTS/60 (5v5)
    12/13 – 2.89
    13/14 – 1.68
    14/15 – 1.11

    ONSH%
    12/13 – 12.50%
    13/14 – 8.25%
    14/15 – 7.73%

    PDO
    12/13 – 1049
    13/14 – 1004
    14/15 – 968

    OZS%
    12/13 – 57%
    13/14 – 58%
    14/15 – 60%

    Shot/60 (5v5)
    12/13 – 29.7
    13/14 – 31.4
    14/15 – 26.6

    Looks like Rutherford was too dumb to realize his unreal PDO year in 12/13 and overpaid for a long time for it.

    I’d guess that 13/14 is about what I’d expect this year.

    That’a amazing value at 1.1MM

    Keep your “lazy russian” narrative to yourself though.

    You don’t know if he’s lazy.

    You just don’t.

  104. Jon K says:

    Woodguy: Keep your “lazy russian” narrative to yourself though.
    You don’t know if he’s lazy.
    You just don’t.

    In fairness to Ducey, that’s not really correct. There is more evidence to support Ducey’s narrative about Semin than for any other current player, to my knowledge.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capitals-insider/wp/2013/02/25/troy-brouwer-criticizes-former-capitals-teammate-alexander-semin/

    Two former teammates in that article suggest he was a skilled, but ultimately frustrating teammate due to laziness and inconsistency.

    Given the general culture in hockey of not speaking ill of other players, it’s pretty significant.

  105. Wolfpack says:

    RexLibris:
    Speaking of bad contracts.

    Go to the vollman sledgehammer.

    Check the Calgary D.

    Look for Smid.

    I hope he gets healthy enough to retire on his own terms before injury forces the issue.

    Smid’s career got derailed as soon as Lowetide started hating him.

    Not too comfortable gazing at a photo of Heather Locklear looking about 16, but was there anyone here currently around his early 40’s who did NOT have the Heather Locklear blue bikini poster on his bedroom wall back in his teenage years?

    Or was that Heather Thomas?

    Yes please to a long-term deal for Klefbom.

  106. grim.oil says:

    Woodguy,

    Maybe lazy is not the right word but their is something that keeps him from producing at his max potential once he gets a long term deal. Expect close to ppg from Semin this year. Next year when he signs another ridiculous deal with… Hmmm… Sweeney (ya that sounds about right) stay away from him.

  107. v4ance says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Kyle Dubas on Darnell Nurse: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.”

    Derek Laxdal on Griffin Reinhart: “We’ll challenge our guys to step up and defend against their big line. The key for us is going to be getting Griff out against them. I thought Griff did an outstanding job tonight. It just shows you what type of defenceman he’s going to be in the National Hockey League. That’s going to be his role.”

    For me, what gives me hope that Nurse might win a spot out of training camp is that he has competed against McDavid in the OHL playoffs. He did an adequate job limiting McDavid who would have been as good or better than most current NHLers last year. Nurse may not have more than 2 games of NHL experience but I’d wager playing head to head against McDavid was as close to being in the NHL while still in juniors.

    I won’t be upset if Nurse is sent down to the AHL initially though. Where ever he plays, I’d hope he gets the most minutes against the toughest competition that he can handle. If it’s 14 minutes for the Oilers or 20+ minutes for the Condors, I think he’ll be okay.

  108. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Ducey, He is 31 and on the decline. He got the easiest zone starts on CAR last year and has for a few years. He started a full 39.4 % of the time in the OZ. That tells me the coach knows he can’t play defense.Despite cherry zone starts he only put up 19 points in 58 games and generated a pathetic 93 shots. He was 11th in points/ 60 on CAR.And you get all this with an indifferent attitude and soft play.No time to do something more detailed, but you know this stuff so:Last 3 years of Semin:PTS/60 (5v5)12/13 – 2.8913/14 – 1.6814/15 – 1.11ONSH%12/13 – 12.50%13/14 – 8.25%14/15 – 7.73%PDO12/13 – 104913/14 – 100414/15 – 968OZS%12/13 – 57%13/14 – 58%14/15 – 60%Shot/60 (5v5)12/13 – 29.713/14 – 31.414/15 – 26.6Looks like Rutherford was too dumb to realize his unreal PDO year in 12/13 and overpaid for a long time for it.I’d guess that 13/14 is about what I’d expect this year.That’a amazing value at 1.1MMKeep your “lazy russian” narrative to yourself though.You don’t know if he’s lazy.You just don’t.

    Not blaming his nationality on his problems. I don’t believe that narrative. Its not fair to suggest that is what I was saying.

    His old GM called it a lack of compete. Boudreau called it inconsistency. http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/01/francis-semin-in-14-15-didnt-have-high-compete-level/

    They would know better than me.

    Or you.

    I see nothing in the #’s that point to Semin being any better than Purcell or Yak. In fact based on last year, he was quite a bit worse.

    I’d rather the Oilers give the soft minutes to their young players than a 31 yr old retread. If they are going to bring in a winger, make it someone who can play some tough minutes and support the kids – not steal their candy (minutes).

  109. v4ance says:

    Thinking of the macro environment, with oil prices sinking and the Canadian dollar following, the NHL is in for at least one more year of static or negative growth of revenues. Looking at this, there is opportunity to pick up someone for pennies on the dollar from many of the cap maxed teams. The cap will remain at $71M or even decrease and make teams trade talent for cap room.

    The flip side of the coin is that every signing that the Oilers make has to be a value deal. Every dollar we save in the next few years will increase our ability to keep more of the key pieces around for longer. For Klefbom, if we can sign him for 6-7 years at $3.75M or so, we do it. If we offer him a bridge deal, he’ll be well worth $5 million on the open market in 2-3 years.

    Same for goaltending. Sign Talbot to a 5 year deal at $3.75 – 4.25 M and lock down the position for a good stretch at a slight discount (assuming he plays as well as expected).

    The drafting and development will be critical from here on out. We need to have cheaper prospects coming through and replacing veterans just like LA and Chicago have done for the past 5 years.

  110. Jon K says:

    Ducey: Not blaming his nationality on his problems.I don’t believe that narrative.Its not fair to suggest that is what I was saying.

    His old GM called it a lack of compete.Boudreau called it inconsistency. http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/01/francis-semin-in-14-15-didnt-have-high-compete-level/

    They would know better than me.

    Or you.

    I see nothing in the #’s that point to Semin being any better than Purcell or Yak.In fact based on last year, he was quite a bit worse.

    I’d rather the Oilers give the soft minutes to their young players than a 31 yr old retread.If they are going to bring in a winger, make it someone who can play some tough minutes and support the kids – not steal their candy (minutes).

    I think it’s really important that we remember Yakupov and his contract when we discuss the potential for bringing in more skill wingers.

    The Oilers have exactly two seasons to determine what kind of player Yakupov is. Arguably, there needs to be icetime in the top 6 to evaluate him in that role.

    I can see the argument for bringing in someone like Semin for the deal he got- it’s great value. However, I’d argue that there are far better options still looking for contracts, like Stempniak, Glencross, Tlusty, Fehr, Santorelli, etc.

  111. Curcro says:

    Woodguy,

    Regardless a $1.1 m contract is only $200k against the cap when you consider whom ever is the placeholder currently can be sent to the AHL and have $900k buried. Slightly more against the cap if it is a value player on a under $900k salary.

  112. Bruce McCurdy says:

    v4ance: He did an adequate job limiting McDavid

    I really liked how the Greyhounds limited McDavid to a mere 19 points in 6 games. 😐

  113. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I asked earlier, but didn’t get a responce, so I’ll try again:

    What happens if he does well in Montreal? Given the lack of talent up front it’s conceivable that Semin could come in 2nd in scoring for the team behind Pac.

    If he posts 25 goals and 60 points…. how do you deal with that as the GM?

  114. Revolved says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I really liked how the Greyhounds limited McDavid to a mere 19 points in 6 games. ?

    As much as I’d love to disagree, Nurse got burned for at least one even strength goal against (where McDavid got a point) in every game of that series except the first, where McDavid had 3 PP goals.

    I didn’t watch it, but did Nurse really contain McDavid?

  115. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say he meant at ES. Trying to stop him on the PP is futile. Just like Nuge, he’s a witch!

    Ca$h-McMoney!,
    Trade with Sweeney for Bergeron? Failing that I think they have to walk away unless he’s willing to sign a reasonable short term deal. He can be good for stretches but then he falls back. If the free agent crop ends up being weak due to teams retaining players, it may be in there interest to keep him. It all comes down to his contract demands though.

  116. v4ance says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yes but a lot of that was when Nurse wasn’t on the ice. I remember they started playing Nurse more when McDavid was off to try and jumpstart the Hounds’ offence too.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Not blaming his nationality on his problems.I don’t believe that narrative.Its not fair to suggest that is what I was saying.

    His old GM called it a lack of compete.Boudreau called it inconsistency. http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/01/francis-semin-in-14-15-didnt-have-high-compete-level/

    They would know better than me.

    Or you.

    I see nothing in the #’s that point to Semin being any better than Purcell or Yak.In fact based on last year, he was quite a bit worse.

    I’d rather the Oilers give the soft minutes to their young players than a 31 yr old retread.If they are going to bring in a winger, make it someone who can play some tough minutes and support the kids – not steal their candy (minutes).

    I didn’t bring up Yak.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Curcro:
    Woodguy,

    Regardless a $1.1 m contract is only $200k against the cap when you consider whom ever is the placeholder currently can be sent to the AHL and have $900k buried. Slightly more against the cap if it is a value player on a under $900k salary.

    Sure, but you have to delete a roster spot.

  119. Bruce McCurdy says:

    v4ance:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yes but a lot of that was when Nurse wasn’t on the ice.I remember they started playing Nurse more when McDavid was off to try and jumpstart the Hounds’ offence too.

    According to game summaries McDavid scored 8 even strength points and Nurse was on the ice for 7 of them.

    He really was a powerplay witch though. Holy moly.

  120. Pouzar says:

    v4ance:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yes but a lot of that was when Nurse wasn’t on the ice.I remember they started playing Nurse more when McDavid was off to try and jumpstart the Hounds’ offence too.

    From Staples:

    There’s one important qualification here, though, with Nurse. His coaches tried to get out Nurse on the ice almost every time McDavid was out there but didn’t always succeed. I didn’t track this specifically (I should have) but by memory, many of McDavid’s chances came when Nurse wasn’t on the ice. And while Nurse was on the ice and partially at fault when McDavid passed or shot for a number of power play points, I can’t recall McDavid often beating Nurse cleanly at even strength for a goal or point. Most often, when it was one-on-one between Nurse and McDavid, Nurse was able to keep the remarkably fast and skilled McDavid to the outside. At best, McDavid could work his way in for a wrister from the high slot, with Nurse still blocking McDavid’s path to the net.

    Overall, McDavid gets an A+ for his work in the series, but Nurse gets a B+. He was the best Sault player and the only d-man on the team who wasn’t dominated on the rush by McDavid.

  121. Doug McLachlan says:

    I see Holtby gets $30.5M over 5 for a $6.1M cap hit.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-arbitartion-tracker-restricted-free-agent-stepan-holtby-haula-nyqvist-boedker-hoffman-del-zotto-chiasson/

    More than the Caps’ initial $5.1M but much closer than Holtby;s ask of $8M. Wonder if the process will affect him – he wouldn’t be the first to suffer from the experience.

  122. Revolved says:

    Bruce McCurdy: According to game summaries McDavid scored 8 even strength points and Nurse was on the ice for 7 of them.

    He really was a powerplay witch though. Holy moly.

    So if McDavid is some kind of proxy for NHL calibre talent (he was playing with four other teenagers), does that mean some other people could agree with me that Nurse should start in the AHL?

  123. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Revolved: So if McDavid is some kind of proxy for NHL calibre talent (he was playing with four other teenagers), does that mean some other people could agree with me that Nurse should start in the AHL?

    I’m not opposed to Nurse starting in the AHL, but I’m not sure McDavid is a proxy for anything human.

    What I am opposed to is drawing too many conclusions, pro or con, on the NHL readiness of Nurse, Reinhart, Draisaitl or anyone else based on (reports of) their performance in lower leagues to this point. The only guy I will make an exception for is McDavid himself, who can’t go to the AHL and will NOT be going back to junior. So I’m happy to write his name on my projected roster in pen. Whereas the others could wind up in either NHL or AHL, or just as likely, spend significant time in both leagues. Depends how they play against the men come September. No need to pigeonhole any of them anywhere at this point, much as the temptation to do so is strong.

  124. dangilitis says:

    Thanks for posting the NYI draft chart. Really highlights things well. You chose Mayfair as a comparable. Why not choose De Haan? 12th overall from 2009, 3 drafts ahead of Reinhart and only 100 more NHL games, or 1.25 more seasons. And De Haan had more of an opportunity to make the big club than Reinhart given the D corps from 2009-12.

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