TRAINING CAMP HOPEFULS NO. 1: MITCHELL MOROZ

The Oklahoma City Barons haven’t produced many NHL forwards but there are some solid reasons for it. Since 2010 (when the Barons got rolling) Edmonton has turned pro several forwards who didn’t enter through the AHL. Among them? Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and on it goes.Hard to crack that lineup, folks.

One of the issues that impacted Barons prospects in a big way (imo) was playing time. The 20-year old forwards were brought along by sundial, biding their time and not getting at-bats during a precious development period. By way of comparison, I’ve included one non-Baron in this look at 20-year old AHL points-per-game. This player was drafted by Edmonton (not in the top three rounds) but developed by another organization:

  1. Tobias Rieder 64GP, 28-20-48 .750
  2. Teemu Hartikainen 66GP, 17-25-42 .636
  3. Bogdan Yakimov 57GP, 12-16-28 .491
  4. Josh Winquist 46GP, 8-11-19 .413
  5. Phil Cornet 60GP, 7-16-23 .383
  6. Tyler Pitlick 62GP, 7-16-23 .371
  7. Anton Lander 14GP, 1-4-5 .357
  8. Curtis Hamilton 41GP, 5-6-11 .268
  9. Jujhar Khaira 51GP, 4-6-10 .196
  10. Travis Ewanyk 68GP, 7-5-12 .176
  11. Mitch Moroz 66GP, 5-4-9 .136
  12. Kale Kessy 54GP, 2-4-6 .111

Hmmm. What are the odds that playing time—out of the box—impacted the prospect’s progress? I’d say a great deal. Let’s look at this issue another way. Eric Rodgers is a fine observer of the game and has passed along some estimated time-on-ice totals to me (more to come!) from this past season. Let’s have a look at Bogdan Yakimov, the most promising recent Baron:

  • 57GP, 12-16-28 16:11 TOI (estimate).
  • Points-per-60 full season estimate: 1.82.
  • Points-per-60 2014 estimate (through end December): 1.22  (27GP, 2-8-10)
  • Points-per-60 2015 estimate (January through season’s end) 1.89 (30GP, 10-8-18)
  • NOTE: Eric estimates that Yakimov was playing just 12:06 a night before Lander’s recall, and then 19:48 afterward.

Not playing these prospects is a bad idea. Full stop. I’m not arguing that any of the current prospects headed to Bakersfield will have the career trajectory of Tobias Rieder. I’m arguing the Oilers need to give these young men a chance in their rookie AHL seasons to find their way. Wasting a season is costing these young players.

moroz ferguson 14152

A year ago, I estimated Mitchell Moroz to score 30 points in 70 AHL games. That’s a good total for an AHL rookie of Moroz’ calibre, but he wasn’t going to hit that number on six minutes a night. I think (based on ancedotal evidence) he’s a better player in the AHL than the numbers showed. Eric Rodgers had a look at TOI estimates 14 games into the schedule and had Moroz at 6:44 per game (source). That puts Moroz nine-point season at an estimated points-per-60 of 1.22—not fabulous, but not tragic either based on where he’s sitting on the depth chart. Moroz is a player who may have to make his own luck based on the way things have turned out since his draft day. I’ll tell you why.

MITCH MOROZ BAKERSFIELD RE: 2015-16: 65GP, 12-15-27 .415

MITCH MOROZ RE: 2015-16: 1GP, 0-0-0

  1. What role will be play in Bakersfield? Moroz should be an AHL regular this season but time on a skill line won’t happen unless he spikes in a big way. I’d estimate the top two LW’s for Bakersfield will be Ryan Hamilton and Anton Slepyshev.
  2. Did the Oilers make room for him? Yes. Curtis Hamilton’s job is open and Moroz has a chance to fill it. He does have competition, including the more talented (but not on 50-man) Josh Winquist, plus a player with similar skills to Moroz (Kale Kessy).
  3. What has changed since his draft day? So very, very much. Stu MacGregor and Steve Tambellini drafted him in 2012, and by the next season Craig MacTavish was preaching skill and the draft model had been tweaked.
  4. Anything else? MacT would have had a connection to Moroz but Chiarelli has none at all. That said, Moroz is part of a thin group of big men who can play a physical game. At the top of the chart is Luke Gazdic and the new star could be Kale Kessy (whose increased speed was the talk of TC one year ago).
  5. Will Todd McLellan use this player type? I think he will, Gazdic is first up and they’ll need him to be better with the puck and one suspects it won’t work well. My guess is all of Gazdic, Kessy and Moroz see at least one NHL game, as the player McLellan is looking for doesn’t currently exist on the club.
  6. What player is that? A fast, big man who can crash and bang, stay healthy and score 10 goals a year. An agitator who can stand up for himself—much of this matches Moroz’ role as an Oil King.
  7. What does Moroz need to work on? His skating, his consistency.
  8. What do the Oilers need to do in order to develop him? Play the man.
  9. Is there any player in the organization you haven’t mentioned who could take this job? Yes. Greg Chase. He isn’t as big as Moroz—Chase is 6.0, 205—but he’s a better skater and a first class agitator. I mean he’s good, one of the best in the WHL during his career in junior hockey.
  10. What one thing will get Moroz to the NHL? His physical play. The man packs a wallop. At 6.02, 214, he can hurt people legally.
  11. What will keep him out? I think Mitch Moroz has a chance to make it. He needs to work on his skating and will absolutely need to learn to take and make a pass at the pro level, but he could do that in junior so it’s a matter of progression. He’ll need to play in the AHL though, a lot, during the rest of his entry-level deal.

 

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136 Responses to "TRAINING CAMP HOPEFULS NO. 1: MITCHELL MOROZ"

  1. Numenius says:

    Is there any truth to the rumour of Moroz having mono this year? That would explain a lot about his TOI.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Numenius:
    Is there any truth to the rumour of Moroz having mono this year? That would explain a lot about his TOI.

    I have heard that a lot, but couldn’t confirm so can’t really mention it as an issue. Certainly mono would have impacted his season.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Not playing these prospects is a bad idea. Full stop.

    This is the issue.

    I was starting to play around with looking at teams that graduate more players to the NHL than others (regardless of where the players were drafted) and TOI is critical.

    I stopped looking at it when you started publishing Supernova’s fantastic posts about it. He’s doing it much better than I was, so I’ll just wait for his stuff and add on from there.

    The Edmonton Oilers have put way too much stock in their AHL team having to be “a winning environment”

    I am convinced this comes right from Lowe as there are quotes from him in this regard.

    Winning doesn’t mean shit to a prospect’s development.

    At bats, sorties, TOI, getting to play the damn game, put in situations to grow and get better.

    That’s what improves prospects.

    Not sitting on the bench watching 26 year olds score the winning goal.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    With Hall, Pouliot and longer term Slepyshev it will be a battle for the last LW spot on the Oilers.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy: The Edmonton Oilers have put way too much stock in their AHL team having to be “a winning environment”
    I am convinced this comes right from Lowe as there are quotes from him in this regard.

    I believe this comes out of the season where the Oilers were last, the Falcons were last and the Oil Kings stunk.

    Losing, Losing, Losing
    It hadta stop

  6. Soup Fascist says:

    If Chase doesn’t drive his own teammates nuts, I like his odds better than Moroz.

    Moroz is bigger and can fight a bit when called on. But Chase has the ability to drive the other team mental – at least at the junior ranks. This is definitely a skill. The problem is guys who have the ability to tweak their toes over the line in a game can be a bit abrasive off the ice too. It’s what makes them tick.

    Sean Avery was exhibit A, for sure. Brad Marchand can reportedly cause a nun to swear at times. Again, I think the Oilers could use a Chase more than Moroz. But rare is the guy who is a prick on the ice but a sweetheart off of it. I hope Chase is that guy.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Every player on the Barons last year with over 20pts and their age:

    Andrew Miller 25
    Jason Williams 34
    Matthew Ford 29
    Brad Hunt 26
    Ryan Hamilton 29
    Curtis Hamilton 22
    Anton Lander 23
    Iiro Pakarinen 23
    Bogdan Yakimov 19
    Jordan Oesterle 22

    5/10 over 25 (no longer a prospect) and those 5 being the top 5 (therefore getting the most TOI)

    Every player on Syracuse (TBY’s affiliate) who scored over 20pts and their age:

    Jonathan Marchessault 23
    Yanni Gourde 22
    Mike Angelidis 29
    Tanner Richard 21
    Vladislav Namestnikov 21
    Joel Vermin 22
    Cody Kunyk 24
    Slater Koekkoek 20
    Mike Blunden 27
    Dylan Blujus 20
    Jake Dotchin 20

    2/11 over 25. 3rd and 9th. Their kids are getting the key at bats.

    Guess which team is considered awful at developing players and guess which team is considered very good at developing players.

    Chiarelli needs to change the focus of Condors immediately.

    Unfortunately I think they already have too many vets signed for next year.

  8. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey: I believe this comes out of the season where the Oilers were last, the Falcons were last and the Oil Kings stunk.

    Losing, Losing, Losing
    It hadta stop

    Yes, I think it did.

    It was a bad decision.

  9. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Not playing these prospects is a bad idea. Full stop.

    This is the issue.

    I was starting to play around with looking at teams that graduate more players to the NHL than others (regardless of where the players were drafted) and TOI is critical.

    I stopped looking at it when you started publishing Supernova’s fantastic posts about it.He’s doing it much better than I was, so I’ll just wait for his stuff and add on from there.

    The Edmonton Oilers have put way too much stock in their AHL team having to be “a winning environment”

    I am convinced this comes right from Lowe as there are quotes from him in this regard.

    Winning doesn’t mean shit to a prospect’s development.

    At bats, sorties, TOI, getting to play the damn game, put in situations to grow and get better.

    That’s what improves prospects.

    Not sitting on the bench watching 26 year olds score the winning goal.

    This.

    Hate the Hunt signing. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it.
    Give Leggs the reigns.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Wow…this is a tad harsh.

    http://imgur.com/jtfPhls

  11. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Wow…this is a tad harsh.

    http://imgur.com/jtfPhls

    Hextall needs to eat more fiber.

  12. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    I’m a bit of a turbo shopper. My ideal is 15 minutes inside Costco to grab $300 worth of small necessities (cheddar, mostly, but it means wading into the cheese corner with elbows raised). Then I come home and spend an hour labeling everything like some kind of anal-retentive gourmet in training. Green tape! Can’t live without it.

    While we’re trying to understand the Moroz story, here’s my thing.

    Costco is still selling the Red Mill Steel-Cut Quick Oats. Quick fucking steel-cut? Are you mad? They used to sell a plainly-wrapped, overstuffed, plastic sack of Stan-fucking-Weir steel-cut oats. That you actually had to cook. Man.

    The world these days.

    I’m just dying to someday tack a sticky note above the quick oat product pallet with the words PRECHEWED STEEL-CUT OATS scrawled in giant black all-caps (in case that wasn’t clear).

    It would probably survive there about an hour or two.

    Perhaps that doesn’t sound like it’s worth the bother, but think of it this way: any decent tree-planting camp cook could prepare the entire damn pallet of steel-cut quick-oats in less time than that. With one pot. And not a very big one. Using a feather spurtle.

  13. Soup Fascist says:

    Pouzar,

    Oops. Not a great typo. Reminds me of the scene from Austin Powers. Who does #2 work for?

  14. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: This.

    Hate the Hunt signing. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it.
    Give Leggs the reigns.

    I’m fine with 1 vet D and 3-4 vet F.

    They key is “where do they play?”

    Keep the vets in the shut down role and let the kids loose to score and win/lose the game.

    You’re not trying to develop checkers in the AHL, decent NHL ones are available for nothing but $ every July.

    Here’s Norfolk last year: (Duck’s affiliate, who also graduate players at a high rate)

    (I had to drop the bar down to 15pts because they were terrible last year)

    Max Friberg 21
    Louis Leblanc 23
    Chris Wagner 23
    Nicolas Kerdiles 20
    William Karlsson 21
    Dave Steckel 32
    Brendan Bell 31
    Antoine Laganiere 24
    Emerson Etem 22
    Stefan Noesen 21
    Charles Sarault 22
    Michael Sgarbossa 22

    2/13 players over 25

    Top 5 scorers 23 or under.

    That’s developing players.

  15. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    Every player on the Barons last year with over 20pts and their age:

    Andrew Miller25
    Jason Williams34
    Matthew Ford29
    Brad Hunt26
    Ryan Hamilton29
    Curtis Hamilton22
    Anton Lander23
    Iiro Pakarinen23
    Bogdan Yakimov19
    Jordan Oesterle22

    5/10 over 25 (no longer a prospect) and those 5 being the top 5 (therefore getting the most TOI)

    Every player on Syracuse (TBY’s affiliate) who scored over 20pts and their age:

    Jonathan Marchessault23
    Yanni Gourde22
    Mike Angelidis29
    Tanner Richard21
    Vladislav Namestnikov21
    Joel Vermin22
    Cody Kunyk24
    Slater Koekkoek20
    Mike Blunden27
    Dylan Blujus20
    Jake Dotchin20

    2/11 over 25.3rd and 9th.Their kids are getting the key at bats.

    Guess which team is considered awful at developing players and guess which team is considered very good at developing players.

    Chiarelli needs to change the focus of Condors immediately.

    Unfortunately I think they already have too many vets signed for next year.

    Woodguy,

    Even I could defend an older player in the farm if they had the right components.

    1) had a realistic chance of being a player at the NHL level of more than a replacement level.
    Example would be Andrew Miller in his first NHL test

    2) older forward on the farm team that didn’t take key opportunities away from actual prospects.
    EV/ PP/ PK time is crucial for prospects and example close might be Dave Steckel in Ducks system

    3) if you play D on the farm you better be a true Veteran “Calming” presence.

    I wouldn’t Have signed

    Hamilton
    Ford
    Hunt

    At least Ford is on non-NHL deal

    ————-

    On the next posts I am finishing them off and should have them to Lowetide on Monday or Tuesday.

    To much time outside Cycling and SUP.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    Then I come home and spend an hour labeling everything like some kind of anal-retentive gourmet in training.

    I don’t think you should consider yourself “in-training”

    I’m just dying to someday tack a sticky note above the quick oat product pallet with the words PRECHEWED STEEL-CUT OATS scrawled in giant black all-caps (in case that wasn’t clear).

    Now I’m going to have to check out that pallet every time I’m in Costco. Just to see if its there yet.

  17. Bank Shot says:

    It seems logical to think that more ice time and games would mean a prospect would turn out better but it doesn’t always seem to be the case.

    Pietrangelo turned out better than anyone could have expected and he spent a large part of his 19 year old season as a healthy scratch at the NHL level.

    JF jacques and Pouliot were both gifted all kinds of icetime in their AHL rookie seasons and they failed to amount to anything. Pouliot in particular was rumoured to not be too keen on adopting a checking role. Perhaps breaking prospects in behind better pros helps keep them humble.

    Its really tough to say one way or the other.

    In the end, I’d lean toward hanging most of the development process on the players themselves. It seems like the guys with the talent, work ethic, and drive find a way to succeed despite the circumstances and the others just fall away.

  18. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    Agreed all points.

    Can’t wait for the rest of it sir!

  19. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    In the end, I’d lean toward hanging most of the development process on the players themselves. It seems like the guys with the talent, work ethic, and drive find a way to succeed despite the circumstances and the others just fall away.

    Except there is a lot of evidence that more TOI to young players = more players who graduate to the NHL.

    I’m sure you can find exceptions all over the place.

    There are many uncle Fred’s who smoked until they died in a car accident at 97.

    Doesn’t change the fact that smoking will, on average, significantly shorten your life span.

    Giving TOI to your developing players will develop more players.

    JFFJ and Poo notwithstanding

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Not playing these prospects is a bad idea. Full stop.

    This is the issue.

    I was starting to play around with looking at teams that graduate more players to the NHL than others (regardless of where the players were drafted) and TOI is critical.

    I stopped looking at it when you started publishing Supernova’s fantastic posts about it.He’s doing it much better than I was, so I’ll just wait for his stuff and add on from there.

    The Edmonton Oilers have put way too much stock in their AHL team having to be “a winning environment”

    I am convinced this comes right from Lowe as there are quotes from him in this regard.

    Winning doesn’t mean shit to a prospect’s development.

    At bats, sorties, TOI, getting to play the damn game, put in situations to grow and get better.

    That’s what improves prospects.

    Not sitting on the bench watching 26 year olds score the winning goal.

    It’s a cultural thing.

    You more than likely all witness the parental uproar that is caused when children’s leagues attempt to de-emphasize game-play and results and highlight skill and competencies.

    As a culture we are shit at figuring out that learning new competencies and following a sound process set us up much better in life than concentrating on isolated, largely meaningless results.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Pietrangelo turned out better than anyone could have expected and he spent a large part of his 19 year old season as a healthy scratch at the NHL level.

    You could state it that way, or you could say:

    Pietrangelo practiced with NHLers every day, played 9 NHL games and then went back to the OHL to play 25 regular season games and 17 playoff games.

    Framing the issue FTW!

  22. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    In the end, I’d lean toward hanging most of the development process on the players themselves. It seems like the guys with the talent, work ethic, and drive find a way to succeed despite the circumstances and the others just fall away.

    Except there is a lot of evidence that more TOI to young players = more players who graduate to the NHL.

    I’m sure you can find exceptions all over the place.

    There are many uncle Fred’s who smoked until they died in a car accident at 97.

    Doesn’t change the fact that smoking will, on average, significantly shorten your life span.

    Giving TOI to your developing players will develop more players.

    JFFJ and Poo notwithstanding

    There is evidence either way.

    If you think you have some proven math for the former please show me the correlation coefficient.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    Any thoughts on who our top 5 all times players are who spent at least one year in our farm system? Maybe exclude lock out seasons?

  24. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Pietrangelo turned out better than anyone could have expected and he spent a large part of his 19 year old season as a healthy scratch at the NHL level.

    You could state it that way, or you could say:

    Pietrangelo practiced with NHLers every day, played 9 NHL games and then went back to the OHL to play25 regular season games and 17 playoff games.

    Framing the issue FTW!

    He didn’t get as much game time as Bogosian, Schenn, Tuebert etc.

    I framed nothing. He’s an example of an instance where game time wasn’t the trump card in development.

    Lots and lots of NCAA prospects turn out great despite not playing as many games as WHL/AHL kids.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Same exercise with the 05/05 Hamilton Bulldogs

    First pro year for Poo.

    Corey Locke 21
    Andrei Kostitsyn 20
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot 20
    Jean-Francois Jacques 20
    Brad Winchester 24
    Francis Lemieux 21
    Maxim Lapierre 20
    Duncan Milroy 22
    James Sanford 21
    Andre Benoit 21
    Pierre Dagenais 27
    Danny Syvret 20

    This is when EDM and MTL split Hamilton.

    Same list with their NHL GP’s:

    Corey Locke 9
    Andrei Kostitsyn 398
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot 192
    Jean-Francois Jacques 166
    Brad Winchester 390
    Francis Lemieux 0
    Maxim Lapierre 614
    Duncan Milroy 5
    James Sanford 0
    Andre Benoit 179
    Pierre Dagenais 142 (all before this year)
    Danny Syvret 59

    Poor Syvret. He was going to be good.

    This is why you give all the kids TOI.

    You don’t know which one will take it and become and NHLer and which won’t.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: He didn’t get as much game time as Bogosian, Schenn, Tuebert etc.

    I framed nothing. He’s an example of an instance where game time wasn’t the trump card in development.

    Lots and lots of NCAA prospects turn out great despite not playing as many games as WHL/AHL kids.

    The question is TOI for kids in the AHL.

    Don’t bring other leagues into it, that’s not what the discussion is.

  27. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    In keeping with LT’s recent draft review focus, SwedishPoster continues his work on the draft, this time reviewing the 2015 draft. This is part 1, covering the first three rounds.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/07/25/guest-columnist-swedishposter-reviews-the-2015-draft-part-1-the-first-three-rounds/

  28. oliveoilers says:

    Before we start the gnashing of the teeth, we should first look at how Boston’s farm system worked under Chia.

    It does not look good.

    It’s hard to find articles newer than one year old on the Providence Bruins, but they do play in the Dunkin’ Donuts Centre.

    There is this one from Jan 2014. You’ll recognise a few of the up-and-comers.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/re-examining-whats-left-boston-bruins-farm-system/

    Is there an average of team make-up between UFAs, trades and home-grown talent? How many AHL players is it normal to have coming through a year?

    Chia likes his vets.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Any thoughts on who our top 5 all times players are who spent at least one year in our farm system?Maybe exclude lock out seasons?

    Charlie Huddy would be on the list.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: There is evidence either way.

    If you think you have some proven math for the former please show me the correlation coefficient.

    I’m working on getting all the data.

    You can’t get AHL TOI data easily, or at all.

    I know when patterns develop though.

    Again, the issues is TOI for kids in the AHL.

    Don’t start bringing in stuff like “well, he played in the NCAA and went straight to the NHL”

    We are not talking about those players.

    We are talking about how to handle full time players in the AHL.

    Full stop.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    He didn’t get as much game time as Bogosian, Schenn, Tuebert etc.

    He’s also a lot better player than those.

    We are not talking about how the handle the Pietrangelo’s or Bogosian’s of the world.

    We are talking about Maroon, Palat, Smith-Pelly types.

  32. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: The question is TOI for kids in the AHL.

    Don’t bring other leagues into it, that’s not what the discussion is.

    Are you saying we should gift kids TOI in a professional league? 😉

    I think Banksie has a point in that if we’re looking at the development of talent from the AHL, then it is relevant to compare to NCAA, which doesn’t have career AHLers cluttering up the system.

    If anything, it proves your point.

  33. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: Full stop.

    Eat a snickers, dude.

  34. fifthcartel says:

    So far the vets for Bakersfield look like

    Brad Hunt
    Nick Pageau
    Andrew Miller
    Ryan Hamilton
    Matt Ford

    Not as many as I thought, but probably still too many taking valuable ice time up. I wouldn’t have signed Ford and probably even Hunt since they could ice a defense entirely made of prospects and see who comes out on top.

    Pageau played the majority of 14-15 in the ECHL but had a good 8 games with OKC, but who knows maybe he’ll end up in Norfolk.

    Looking at the roster here – http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=724.

  35. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers:
    Before we start the gnashing of the teeth, we should first look at how Boston’s farm system worked under Chia.

    It does not look good.

    It’s hard to find articles newer than one year old on the Providence Bruins, but they do play in the Dunkin’ Donuts Centre.

    There is this one from Jan 2014.You’ll recognise a few of the up-and-comers.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/re-examining-whats-left-boston-bruins-farm-system/

    Is there an average of team make-up between UFAs, trades and home-grown talent?How many AHL players is it normal to have coming through a year?

    Chia likes his vets.

    This is every player who scored 20pts or more on Providence in 13/14:

    Alexander Khokhlachev 19
    Seth Griffith 20
    Craig Cunningham 22
    Ryan Spooner 21
    Nick Johnson 27
    Justin Florek 23
    David Warsofsky 23
    Carter Camper To Springfield 25
    Matt Fraser 23
    Joe Morrow 20
    Zach Trotman 23
    Matt Lindblad 23
    Anthony Camara 19
    Mike Moore 28
    Ben Youds 25
    Jared Knight 21

    4/16 over 25 isn’t a bad ratio with the top 4 all being 22 or less.

    Here is Providence last year:

    Alexander Khokhlachev 20
    Justin Florek 24
    Seth Griffith 21
    David Pastrnak 18
    Colin Stuart 32
    Ryan Spooner 22
    Rob Flick 23
    Steve Eminger 30
    Matt Lindblad 24
    Tommy Cross 24
    Ben Youds To Lake Erie 26
    Brian Ferlin 22
    Tyler Randell 23
    Ethan Werek 23

    A little longer in the tooth with more 23/24 year olds.

    Still only 3/15 over 25.

  36. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    So far the vets for Bakersfield look like

    Brad Hunt
    Nick Pageau
    Andrew Miller
    Ryan Hamilton
    Matt Ford

    Not as many as I thought, but probably still too many taking valuable ice time up. I wouldn’t have signed Ford and probably even Hunt since they could ice a defense entirely made of prospects and see who comes out on top.

    Pageau played the majority of 14-15 in the ECHL but had a good 8 games with OKC, but who knows maybe he’ll end up in Norfolk.

    Looking at the roster here – http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=724.

    Pageau is likely to spend quite a bit of time in the ECHL imo, and Miller could make the NHL team.

  37. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: I’m working on getting all the data.

    You can’t get AHL TOI data easily, or at all.

    I know when patterns develop though.

    Again, the issues is TOI for kids in the AHL.

    Don’t start bringing in stuff like “well, he played in the NCAA and went straight to the NHL”

    We are not talking about those players.

    We are talking about how to handle full time players in the AHL.

    Full stop.

    Ok. Whats your take on this one?

    Grand Rapids-2011/2012

    Tatar 20
    Nyquist 22
    Johnson 29
    Conner 27
    Pare 24
    Andersson 22
    Brunnstrom 26
    Brendan Smith 22
    Janik 31
    Minard 29

    Detroit develops as well as anyone and they have carried a lot of veterans on their AHL roster in the past.

  38. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    So far the vets for Bakersfield look like

    Brad Hunt
    Nick Pageau
    Andrew Miller
    Ryan Hamilton
    Matt Ford

    Not as many as I thought, but probably still too many taking valuable ice time up. I wouldn’t have signed Ford and probably even Hunt since they could ice a defense entirely made of prospects and see who comes out on top.

    Pageau played the majority of 14-15 in the ECHL but had a good 8 games with OKC, but who knows maybe he’ll end up in Norfolk.

    Looking at the roster here – http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=724.

    3 forwards and 2 D, that’s not bad.

    Issue is that MIller, Hamilton, Ford and Hunt were 4 of their top 5 scorers last year.

    I’d prefer if their vets played down the line up and weren’t in a position to take special teams time, especially PP.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Ok. Whats your take on this one?

    Grand Rapids-2011/2012

    Tatar 20
    Nyquist 22
    Johnson 29
    Conner 27
    Pare 24
    Andersson 22
    Brunnstrom 26
    Brendan Smith 22
    Janik 31
    Minard 29

    I would say too many vets.

    Good that their top 2 scorers are kids.

    Bet those two make it to the NHL!

    Ha!

  40. rich says:

    There is some great stuff here with enormous implications for the future of this team. Thank you LT, Woodguy and Supernova for shedding light.

    The implications are clear: when the CMD cluster is ready to compete, we have to have kids ready to step up on value contracts or the Oilers will struggle to maintain success.

    We seem to be doing this to some degree with d-men. But very little with forwards.

    Moroz is a perfect example of a wasted development year. Interested if this also applies to Khara. Whether that’s on Nelson & Fleming for not playing him or management for signing too many vets – or a little of both because they needed to win to draw fans and cut losses I don’t know.

    This has to stop. If Chiarelli does not alter the organization’s philosophy – the AHL & ECHL are for development and AHL vets are not to be in feature roles, the cycle will perpetuate.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    oliveoilers: Eat a snickers, dude.

    A bit early in the day for that. It may, however, be espresso time.

  42. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide: Pageau is likely to spend quite a bit of time in the ECHL imo, and Miller could make the NHL team.

    I think so too, Miller has good speed and has shown he score a bit (9 games, though), only thing is he doesn’t have the same size as Pitlick and Klinkhammer but that might not matter.

    Woodguy: 3 forwards and 2 D, that’s not bad.

    Issue is that MIller, Hamilton, Ford and Hunt were 4 of their top 5 scorers last year.

    I’d prefer if their vets played down the line up and weren’t in a position to take special teams time, especially PP.

    Yeah, that is what I’m concerned about as well but I was curious how Boston’s AHL teams had young players perform and the last couple years have been pretty encouraging.

    Spooner/Griffith/Khoklachev/Krug have all put up really good seasons in the top 5 or leading Providence in scoring, and even Pastrnak put up 28 pints in 25 games as an 18 year old.

    Hopefully the prospects are put up in similar positions to succeed, or else how are they going to develop or become assets to cash in (Linden Vey, etc.).

  43. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: I would say too many vets.

    Good that their top 2 scorers are kids.

    Bet those two make it to the NHL!

    Ha!

    Yeah all that veteran presence didn’t help Nyquist & Tatar even a little bit, just blocked their path to success.

    Gord damned Detroit model never did produce anything of merit.

    😉

  44. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: The question is TOI for kids in the AHL.

    Don’t bring other leagues into it, that’s not what the discussion is.

    We should absolutely bring other leagues into it.

    Young players developed in the Euro leagues get far less ice time than those in junior.
    NCAA plays far less games.

    But, these routes are viable development routes as well so I don’t think we can categorically state that minutes of game time is the trump card in a player’s development.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Here’s what I’m talking about:

    12/13 Norfolk

    Player name – age – Draft position

    Patrick Maroon 24 161
    Sami Vatanen 21 106
    Peter Holland 21 15
    Devante Smith-Pelly 20 42
    Kyle Palmieri 21 26
    Nate Guenin 29 Vet
    Chris Wagner 21 122

    ANA graduated all of the top 5 to the NHL (or like Holland, made it after being traded to TOR) and Wagner has a shot next year (played 9 games in the NHL last year)

    That is massive success, especially given where most of those players were taken.

    A constant flow of players to the NHL to play on cheap ELC or 2nd contracts is going to be critical to the Oilers in a couple years.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Charlie Huddy would be atop the list.

    Fixed that for ya.

    Though Steve Smith would be in there with a bullet, wouldn’t he?

    Two beauties.

  47. Ryan says:

    Bank Shot,

    I think Woodguy has a reasonable point. The OKC Barons wasted key minutes playing career minor leaguers Ford, Williams, Hunt, and Hamilton. Miller still has a potential ceiling as an NHL tweener with potential to play minutes on a rebuilding team like Toronto or Arizona.

    The only counterpoints I have for Woodguy:

    1. The okc barons were pretty thin on talented forward prospects outside of Pakarinen and Yak2.0.
    2. Moroz should have been sent to the ECHL
    3. Hunt’s the only dman over 25 that played any appreciable number of games.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    We should absolutely bring other leagues into it.
    Young players developed in the Euro leagues get far less ice time than those in junior.
    NCAA plays far less games.
    But, these routes are viable development routes as well so I don’t think we can categorically state that minutes of game time is the trump card in a player’s development.

    No.

    I’m talking about the AHL only.

    Me – “I’d like to talk about bread pickles”

    BS – “Ok, but banana peppers are better than bread pickles”

    Me – “That’s fine, I like banana peppers too, but let’s just talk about bread pickles”

    BS – “You have to talk about banana peppers they are pickles of a sort too, you can’t ignore them”

    Me – “*sigh*”

  49. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Here’s what I’m talking about:

    12/13 Norfolk

    Player name – age – Draft position

    Patrick Maroon24161
    Sami Vatanen21106
    Peter Holland2115
    Devante Smith-Pelly2042
    Kyle Palmieri2126
    Nate Guenin29Vet
    Chris Wagner21122

    ANA graduated all of the top 5 to the NHL(or like Holland, made it after being traded to TOR) and Wagner has a shot next year (played 9 games in the NHL last year)

    That is massive success, especially given where most of those players were taken.

    A constant flow of players to the NHL to play on cheap ELC or 2nd contracts is going to be critical to the Oilers in a couple years.

    Who specifically on last year’s OKC Baron’s roster got the shaft last year in terms of toi?

  50. oliveoilers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: A bit early in the day for that. It may, however, be espresso time.

    Great idea!

  51. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    1. The okc barons were pretty thin on talented forward prospects outside of Pakarinen and Yak2.0.
    So what? ANA turned Maroon into an NHLer by giving him at bats

    2. Moroz should have been sent to the ECHL

    You don’t know that.

    3. Hunt’s the only dman over 25 that played any appreciable number of games.

    I agree that a good thing.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Moroz, Yakimov (until Lander graduated), Khaira, and probably Kessy.

    They may not amount to much, but you gave them a NHL contract, play them and see what they can become.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar:
    Wow…this is a tad harsh.

    http://imgur.com/jtfPhls

    That is a classic example of what I call a Freudian Typo. Especially funny that it falls under the banner of a long standing and fairly staid publication like THN.

    It certainly has a l-o-n-g reputation to uphold. It’s not what it used to be, but back when I started hockey in the early ’60s, The Hockey News was “the ship”. 🙂

  54. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    We should absolutely bring other leagues into it.
    Young players developed in the Euro leagues get far less ice time than those in junior.
    NCAA plays far less games.
    But, these routes are viable development routes as well so I don’t think we can categorically state that minutes of game time is the trump card in a player’s development.

    No.

    I’m talking about the AHL only.

    Me – “I’d like to talk about bread pickles”

    BS – “Ok, but banana peppers are better than bread pickles”

    Me – “That’s fine, I like banana peppers too, but let’s just talk about bread pickles”

    BS – “You have to talk about banana peppers they are pickles of a sort too, you can’t ignore them”

    Me – “*sigh*”

    Well I talked about what you wanted in the Detroit farm system and you just brushed it off.

    Guess you will just believe whatever you wish and tailor the evidence to suit your beliefs.

    Next you should use an example of The Buffalo Sabres farm team from 2000-2005 as an example of a poor developmental system.

    Lots of vets on those teams, and they only graduated like 10 impact NHLers in that time period. 😛

  55. Hammers says:

    Agree that 5-6 older players is a mistake but they need balance so what’s the right number? For me it’s not having 5-6 it’s playing them all the time. The coach should be told play any number say 4 but the ice time they get has to be a max of 20 minutes , preferable 18 . These older AHL players need to be told where they stand ,that way they can head to Europe if they want . It’s ice time more than number of players but only giving young drafted players 10 to 15 minutes is nuts . Especially in there second and third years .

  56. knighttown says:

    Perhaps I’m sensitive to the last decade of Oilers losing but if I ran the AHL team I would make damn well sure my team was at least average. Getting your teeth kicked in every night is crippling and should be avoided at all costs. So sure, like Norfolk, if your kids are good enough to make sure your team is pretty good go ahead and get rid of the veterans. If they aren’t, sprinkle in vets as needed until you are decent to good.

    Including Miller is misleading as he’s brand new to the professional game and is a legit prospect regardless of age. Hunt too, last year. So really, there for 3-4 no chance vets taking minutes. And by the metrics you can tell that they played well and produced. That’s pretty close to sprinkling.

    For every negative check mark earned by having a Moroz lose prime minutes there are positives for better prospects like Lander getting prime minutes with players that can keep up. More positives for a team of young guys going on a long playoff run and winning more than they lose.

    You can like the way the Barons have been handled (I do) but not like the way that Moroz and others have been handled. Suggesting Moroz be gifted tons of minutes has an impact on the prospects that are ready like Lander. He got to play with good players every night and his good passes became goals and he scored a lot because good players got him the puck in good spots.

    Had Moroz been shoved onto his line you’d be looking at early Lander NHL all over again; dragging around players that simply can’t yet play at the level needed.

    The answer here is easy. Make up your list of important prospects. Then look at the Condor depth chart. If a player on list number one is well down the depth chart then put him in the ECHL and recall him when spots open up. Way better option than giving him the juicy spot on the team when he hasn’t earned it.

    Development 101 means having a specific and customized plan for every prospect. While Moroz might be graded a D, Lander and others plans have been executed extremely well since the clusterfuck of his rookie season.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Agree that 5-6 older players is a mistake but they need balance so what’s the right number?For me it’s not having 5-6 it’s playing them all the time. The coach should be told play any number say 4 but the ice time they get has to be a max of 20 minutes , preferable 18 . These older AHL players need to be told where they stand ,that way they can head to Europe if they want . It’s ice time more than number of players but only giving young drafted players 10 to 15 minutes is nuts . Especially in there second and third years .

    there are some weird rules that impact AHL rosters. You have to play a certain number of veterans and there’s a wonky rotation thing that happens too. Also, the California AHL teams are playing fewer games this season and that is going to impact development. ECHL may increase in importance because of it.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Wrote something about Brandon Davidson this morning

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/7/25/brandon-man-out-in-the-cold

    Also, I’m on noon to 2pm Saturday Sports Extra today, will be speaking to Travis Yost at 12:25 about Sens, Leafs and our Oil.

  59. G Money says:

    Woodguy: bread pickles

    I don’t know what ‘bread pickles’ are, but I think we need to make an LT meme out of “I’d like to talk about bread pickles.”

  60. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The Hockey News was “the ship”.

    Seems like they’ve spent too much time on the poop deck.

  61. Lowetide says:

    G Money: I don’t know what ‘bread pickles’ are, but I think we need to make an LT meme out of “I’d like to talk about bread pickles.”

    God. It’s like fruit cake. Anyone had a fruit cake? Ghastly. “He scored only 12 fruit cakes but added 68 bread pickles for the team”

  62. Ryan says:

    G Money: I don’t know what ‘bread pickles’ are, but I think we need to make an LT meme out of “I’d like to talk about bread pickles.”

    It sounds a lot like confirmation bias to me, to be honest. 🙂

  63. Adam Wu says:

    Mentorship is helpful for development at all levels.

  64. Ribs says:

    I would also like to talk about bread pickles.

  65. wordbird says:

    Bootstrap Effexor:

    I’m just dying to someday tack a sticky note above the quick oat product pallet with the words PRECHEWED STEEL-CUT OATS scrawled in giant black all-caps (in case that wasn’t clear).

    OR on some green tape (hint hint)

  66. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Well I talked about what you wanted in the Detroit farm system and you just brushed it off.

    No I didn’t.

    DET had their top 2 scorers being prospects.

    OKC had their top 5 being vets.

    I know you know the difference.

  67. Gerta Rauss says:

    knighttown,

    How was the trip to Cabot Links..?

    Did you get a chance to play Cabot Cliffs..?

    I played Cabot in Sept 13-did the whole Cabot Trail and over to PEI-awesome. Cliffs was under construction but not open yet.

    I’m currently planning a trip to Ireland in spring of ’16-nothing confirmed yet, early stages still.

  68. godot10 says:

    //The Oklahoma City Barons haven’t produced many NHL forwards//

    This is NOT true.

    Colin McDonald
    Chris Vandevelde
    Marc Arcobello
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Anton Lander
    (1 per season)

    Omark
    Hartikainen
    Pakarinen
    Miller
    Pitlick
    (tweeners, who didn’t find the right situation, or on the verge)
    (again one per season).

    So OKC was producing one player and one tweener per season.

  69. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    I prefer dill pickles.

  70. Mr DeBakey says:

    This pickle we’re in is easy to fix

    They’re actually called Bread n Butter pickles
    http://www.saltwaterchef.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Bubbies.jpg

    My mom usta make ’em every August

  71. godot10 says:

    //One of the issues that impacted Barons prospects in a big way (imo) was playing time.//

    This is not true.

    Pitlick always go ice time when he was healthy, but the was competing with Omark, Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Vandevelde, Arcobello, and Tyrvainen, all of who were also first or 2nd year AHL’ers (and draft picks).

    The latest crop (Khaira, Moroz, and Yakimov) are competing for ice time against Pakarinen and MIller and Lander. Lander was only there because of the stupidity of MacT and Eakins, and Pakarinen and Miller are European and US college free agents. Khaira, from day 1, leapfrogged Ewanyk and Kessy.

    Are you arguing that the Oilers should NOT be signing free agents out of Europe and US college?

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Well I talked about what you wanted in the Detroit farm system and you just brushed it off.

    No I didn’t.

    DET had their top 2 scorers being prospects.

    OKC had their top 5 being vets.

    I know you know the difference.

    The difference is that Detroit drafted better players that beat out the vets without having to be gifted ice time.

    Yakimov did fine points wise.

    Khaira and Moroz were short of a ppg in their last junior season.

    I’m not sure what you expected them to do in the AHL.

    The Oilers just had a poor year for not having any forward prospects with any talent in the system.

    You talk about Anaheim making Pat Maroon a player, but you fail to mention that he scored 90 points in his last year of junior (And led his team in scoring by almost 30 points), and then spent two full seasons in Philly’s system before being traded to Anaheim.

    Had Edmonton traded for Maroon, he definitely would have gotten playing time in OKC as well.

    If the argument is that the Oilers should be acquiring 23 year olds with AHL experience to fill out the top end of their AHL roster I’m open to that, but it’s going to take assets because other teams don’t give those players away for free.

  73. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Well I talked about what you wanted in the Detroit farm system and you just brushed it off.

    No I didn’t.

    DET had their top 2 scorers being prospects.

    OKC had their top 5 being vets.

    I know you know the difference.

    I’m honestly not trolling you here.

    Open question. Is Andy Miele still a prospect or is he more in the realm of career minor leager?

  74. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:


    Elliotte FriedmanVerified account
    ‏@FriedgeHNIC

    Not sure if out yet, but NYR offer to Stepan is $5.2M. Stepan ask is $7.25M

    They’re a little over $65M as it is right now, and it looks like Stepan’s arb deal will leave them little cap margin to begin the season with.

    http://war-on-ice.com/cap/NYR.html

    How much margin does a GM need, for managing short-term injury call-ups?

  75. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Next you should use an example of The Buffalo Sabres farm team from 2000-2005 as an example of a poor developmental system.

    Rochester had independent ownership and that makes a difference on who makes the team.

    That being said, here’s their top 10 scorers and their ages in 00-04.

    I’m ignoring 04/05 because there was no NHL that year and every team was loaded with NHL players.

    00/01
    Francois Methot 22
    Jeremy Adduono 22
    Craig Charron 32
    Norm Milley 20
    Chris Taylor 28
    Jason Cipolla 27
    Joe Murphy 25
    Brian Campbell 21
    Mike Hurlbut 33
    Dane Jackson 30

    6/10 over 25

    1 NHLer – Campbell

    01/02
    Chris Taylor 29
    Christian Matte 26
    Ales Kotalik 22
    Norm Milley 21
    Brian Campbell 22
    Jeremy Adduono 23
    Francois Methot 23
    Doug Houda 35
    Milan Bartovic 20
    Craig Charron 33

    4/10 scorers over 25. Top 2 over 25

    2 NHLer, Kotalik, Tallinder (12th in scoring)

    Pyatt was on the team, but played more in BUF that year and for NYI the year before.

    02/03
    Chris Taylor 30
    Jason Botterill 26
    Francois Methot 24
    Paul Gaustad 20
    Norm Milley 22
    Denis Hamel 25
    Jason Pominville 19
    Jaroslav Kristek 22
    Peter Ratchuk 24
    Milan Bartovic 21

    3/10 over 25. Ratio getting better.

    Gaustad, Pominville NHLers
    Botteril had been pro for 6 years and doesn’t count as being developed by BUF

    03/04
    Domenic Pittis 28
    Jason Pominville 20
    David Cullen 26
    Norm Milley 23
    Jason Botterill 27
    Paul Gaustad 21
    Milan Bartovic 22
    Jason Dawe 30
    Chris Taylor 31
    Derek Roy 20

    3/10 over 25

    Only new NHLer is Roy. Bartovic maybe (50 NHL gp)

    At no point do I see their top 5 scorers all NHL vets like OKC.

    What was your point about BUF?

    I don’t see it.

  76. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10:
    //One of the issues that impacted Barons prospects in a big way (imo) was playing time.//

    This is not true.

    Pitlick always go ice time when he was healthy, but the was competing with Omark, Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Vandevelde,Arcobello, and Tyrvainen, all of who were also first or 2nd year AHL’ers (and draft picks).

    The latest crop (Khaira, Moroz, and Yakimov) are competing for ice time against Pakarinen and MIller and Lander.Lander was only there because of the stupidity of MacT and Eakins, and Pakarinen and Miller are European and US college free agents.Khaira, from day 1, leapfrogged Ewanyk and Kessy.

    Are you arguing that the Oilers should NOT be signing free agents out of Europe and US college?

    Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

  77. Ryan says:

    Bank Shot,

    I agree with both of you guys.

    On the one hand, I see primo minutes in the AHL as an extremely valuable commodity to develop players for the NHL per Woodguy.

    On the other hand, the Oilers largely lacked viable candidates outside of Yak2 for those minutes.

    Is Woodguy basically suggesting khaira, Moroz, and Kelsy might as well have played those minutes even if they got their teeth kicked in?

  78. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    If the argument is that the Oilers should be acquiring 23 year olds with AHL experience to fill out the top end of their AHL roster I’m open to that, but it’s going to take assets because other teams don’t give those players away for free.

    No, the argument is that drafting players, putting them in the AHL and then giving them 6-10min a night so vets can play to “create a winning environment” doesn’t work to develop players as well as giving your kids the ice time.

  79. G Money says:

    Lowetide: “He scored only 12 fruit cakes but added 68 bread pickles for the team”

    Ryan: It sounds a lot like confirmation bias to me, to be honest.

    I propose that heretofore, ‘apples’ be restricted to refer to first assists only, and ‘bread pickles’ refer to second assists.

    How much more interesting would the argument between Ryan and I the other day been if we’d been arguing about bread pickles instead?

    “Look, he’s going to regress because HIS BREAD PICKLE RATIO LAST YEAR WAS TOO HIGH.”

    “No way man, HE HAD A TINY NUMBER OF BREAD PICKLES, such a pickle ratio is so volatile that it’s just not meaningful!”

    Etc.

  80. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Is Woodguy basically suggesting khaira, Moroz, and Kelsy might as well have played those minutes even if they got their teeth kicked in?

    Yes I am.

    The players would have grown as players and you would have learned more about them.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Khaira and Moroz were short of a ppg in their last junior season.
    I’m not sure what you expected them to do in the AHL.

    That’s not the point.

    The Oilers gave these players NHL contracts and its essential to play them at the AHL level to see if they can turn into NHLers.

    If you are not going to play prospects at the AHL level, don’t give them contracts.

    If you gave a bunch of bad players contracts, then flush them out, but you have to play them in order for them to have any value.

  82. Masamax says:

    t’s been a while, but I’m back, in pog form, to give you guys the last update on the Phoenix situation.
    Remember that the court case would pick up again next week, giving this week as the last for a negotiated settlement between the parties. Well, that settlement happened. Despite the acrimonious relationship between the city and team, which is a bit surprising.
    The details:
    1) Two year agreement, no out clause.
    2) Reduced management fee from $15M to $6.5M
    3) Coyotes get to set and keep all parking revenue as opposed to the CoG (~$500,000 in value currently, could rise considerably, although the Coyotes tried to suggest this needed to be REDUCED in order to attract more concerts, so who knows)
    4) Coyotes get to keep all of the naming rights as opposed to the 1/3 to 1/2 that the CoG used to get, which is worth another $300,000-$600,000 (details of the Gila River deal aren’t clear).
    5) Tindall, the counsel at the centre of this whole thing, has to be shitcanned by the Coyotes.
    The team is going to play this off as a victory for them, or some such, but the details are actually pretty much the opposite of that. More-over, the verbal of the team talks about how they are committed to ‘Phoenix’ long term, not Glendale or Arizona after this thing, so when this agreement is up in two years who knows what is going to happen. But, the long and short of it is that the CoG has saved themselves $7.5M in costs by giving up approximately $1M, or put another way, the Coyotes revenue just instantly dropped by ~ $6.5M.

  83. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: I’m honestly not trolling you here.

    Open question.Is Andy Miele still a prospect or is he more in the realm of career minor leager?

    No, he’s a pro, not a prospect.

    Probably a AHL pro at this point in his career.

  84. Mr DeBakey says:

    G Money: ‘bread pickles’ refer to second assists.

    Bread and Butter pickles Dammit!

  85. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:

    03/04
    Domenic Pittis28
    Jason Pominville20
    David Cullen26
    Norm Milley23
    Jason Botterill27
    Paul Gaustad21
    Milan Bartovic22
    Jason Dawe30
    Chris Taylor31
    Derek Roy20

    3/10 over 25

    Only new NHLer is Roy.Bartovic maybe (50 NHL gp)

    At no point do I see their top 5 scorers all NHL vets like OKC.

    What was your point about BUF?

    I don’t see it.

    Last one is 5 out of 10 that were veterans.

    The point is that Buffalo had veterans in place that happened to get beat out by top prospects. Roy, Pominville, and Gaustad obviously earned their icetime.

    The Buffalo Sabres didn’t gift icetime to Chris Thorburn, Karel Mosovsky, Nathan Paetsch, and Jiri Novotny who are basically the equivalents of Khaira, Moroz, and whichever other plug you think deserved more icetime.

    Platzer, Chase and Nurse stepped in at the end of the season and they all produced at better rates than the incumbents.

    Perhaps its just a problem with the quality of prospects rather than the developmental system.

  86. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    Is Woodguy basically suggesting khaira, Moroz, and Kelsy might as well have played those minutes even if they got their teeth kicked in?

    Yes I am.

    The players would have grown as players and you would have learned more about them.

    Said the Edmonton Oilers as they justify gifting minutes to kids from 2010 onwards.

    Everyone, regardless of age on that AHL team, and remember although it IS a development team for the Oilers, it is also a professional hockey team. You still have to sell tickets and one way of doing that is winning.

  87. Ribs says:

    I think bread pickles will be my new curse word.

  88. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    //One of the issues that impacted Barons prospects in a big way (imo) was playing time.//

    This is not true.

    Pitlick always go ice time when he was healthy, but the was competing with Omark, Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Vandevelde,Arcobello, and Tyrvainen, all of who were also first or 2nd year AHL’ers (and draft picks).

    The latest crop (Khaira, Moroz, and Yakimov) are competing for ice time against Pakarinen and MIller and Lander.Lander was only there because of the stupidity of MacT and Eakins, and Pakarinen and Miller are European and US college free agents.Khaira, from day 1, leapfrogged Ewanyk and Kessy.

    Are you arguing that the Oilers should NOT be signing free agents out of Europe and US college?

    I’m saying if you spend a second round pick and then don’t play him once he’s signed, you’re an idiot. (notyou, obviously).

  89. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    Is Woodguy basically suggesting khaira, Moroz, and Kelsy might as well have played those minutes even if they got their teeth kicked in?

    Yes I am.

    The players would have grown as players and you would have learned more about them.

    At the end of the day, we’d all be on the same page if the Oilers have better young forward prospects playing bigger minutes in the AHL.

    With the Oilers either drafting star players in the first round…trading picks for goalies and Reinhart…or drafting for need (defense)…

    It doesn’t look like there will be a correction in terms of better young forward prospects in the AHL on the horizon soon.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: God I hope so. If a kid plays 15 minutes a night, those bad nights will decrease. You can’t play pro hockey with training wheels.

  91. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    //The Oklahoma City Barons haven’t produced many NHL forwards//

    This isNOT true.

    Colin McDonald
    Chris Vandevelde
    Marc Arcobello
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Anton Lander
    (1 per season)

    Omark
    Hartikainen
    Pakarinen
    Miller
    Pitlick
    (tweeners, who didn’t find the right situation, or on the verge)
    (again one per season).

    So OKC was producing one player and one tweener per season.

    I framed the issue around 20-year olds because that’s (mostly) where the draft picks are. The one thing I’ll say to you is this: Edmonton used the ECHL wisely with Arco, why not do it with others? Makes no sense.

  92. LMHF#1 says:

    The guy they wanted on draft day was Samuelsson. The guy for this role is, was, and will be Samuelsson. If that role is what they want, trade for him.

    Is this list going in reverse order of likelihood LT? If Moroz plays in the NHL this year things have gone haywire.

  93. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    The guy they wanted on draft day was Samuelsson. The guy for this role is, was, and will be Samuelsson. If that role is what they want, trade for him.

    Is this list going in reverse order of likelihood LT? If Moroz plays in the NHL this year things have gone haywire.

    Yes. I have Moroz getting a callup and playing one game (from the Gazdic game file).

  94. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    In keeping with LT’s recent draft review focus, SwedishPoster continues his work on the draft, this time reviewing the 2015 draft.This is part 1, covering the first three rounds.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/07/25/guest-columnist-swedishposter-reviews-the-2015-draft-part-1-the-first-three-rounds/

    I’m quoting partly for the purpose of shameless self-promotion but also to offer kudos to my editor. Good call splitting it up into four parts. Makes for a far better read.

  95. B S says:

    For those arguing that players have to earn their playing time in the AHL, I’d like to introduce a concept called incumbency (you may know it from political circles but the biological/evolutionary use might be more analogous here).

    Incumbency is the idea that you can’t move into a new niche when someone else is occupying it. It doesn’t matter that you could end up being better at it because the opportunity is never there.

    As it applies to the debate here: it’s one thing to say that the prospects must earn their time, but I believe the argument isn’t that the prospects should be played big minute even if they aren’t going to be any good but rather that they need to play those minutes so they can find out.

    e.g. we say that Moroz should be taking those minutes away from Ryan Hamilton, but Ryan Hamilton is already playing that role, and is good enough in that role that the coach will continue to use him. The coach has no reason to play Moroz in those minutes because he has Hamilton. This doesn’t mean Moroz isn’t or can’t be better as a large top 6 AHL winger than Hamilton, but rather that he hasn’t gotten the opportunity.

    The only way you are going to be able to tell whether Moroz can fill that role is to give him those minutes by removing Hamilton. Either by not having Hamilton on the team, or limiting Hamilton’s minutes.

    Another point with the biology analogy to keep in mind is that when an incumbent leaves (goes extinct) the new-comers inevitably have a lower fitness to start, but can end up with a much higher fitness later on.

    A prospect coming into a new role (or the same role at a higher level) is going to be worse at the start than the established veterans, mainly because he has to catch up in terms of systems, training, and awareness, as well as his skills. Coaches don’t like to lose, so they are almost always going to play the veteran as long as he helps him win, unless there is no veteran.

    Who did Lander beat out for the 1st line center role last season? why didn’t he do it 2, 3 years ago?

  96. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    I propose that heretofore, ‘apples’ be restricted to refer to first assists only, and ‘bread pickles’ refer to second assists.

    How much more interesting would the argument between Ryan and I the other day been if we’d been arguing about bread pickles instead?

    “Look, he’s going to regress because HIS BREAD PICKLE RATIO LAST YEAR WAS TOO HIGH.”

    “No way man, HE HAD A TINY NUMBER OF BREAD PICKLES, such a pickle ratio is so volatile that it’s just not meaningful!”

    Etc.

    But the real question is whether his bread pickle ratio will regress to the meat once the corgis stop barking.

  97. jonrmcleod says:

    RexLibris: But the real question is whether his bread pickle ratio will regress to the meat once the corgis stop barking.

    I suggest consulting the sacred book of the hockey gords. Just don’t look in the chapter entitled TBA.

  98. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I’m saying if you spend a second round pick and then don’t play him once he’s signed, you’re Oilers management material.

    fixed.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Platzer, Chase and Nurse stepped in at the end of the season and they all produced at better rates than the incumbents.
    Perhaps its just a problem with the quality of prospects rather than the developmental system.

    I don’t rate many of those players very high, but that’s besides the point.

    I see no value at all to playing a line of AHL vets in all the key situations while prospects, even meh ones like I listed get 8min-10min per night.

    Its like planting a garden with B grade cucumber seeds then deciding not to water it because the seeds aren’t very good.

    If you watered it you might get a good bread pickle or two.

    Not watering it does nothing to help and everything to hurt.

    I want prospects that take jobs too, but if the NHL team has them on contracts not playing them in favour of vets is just making a bad situation worse.

    imo.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’m saying if you spend a second round pick and then don’t play him once he’s signed, you’re an idiot. (notyou, obviously).

    That’s what I meant to say in my 23432 posts.

  101. RexLibris says:

    jonrmcleod: I suggest consulting the sacred book of the hockey gords. Just don’t look in the chapter entitled TBA.

    It’s kind of a wonder LT attracts so many new commenters given the long list of jargon we toss around here.

    Then again…pretty ladies in the pictures, frequent talk of golfing in the interior of BC and “spirited” conversations about beverages…jargon be damned!

  102. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers: Said the Edmonton Oilers as they justify gifting minutes to kids from 2010 onwards.

    Everyone, regardless of age on that AHL team, and remember although it IS a development team for the Oilers, it is also a professional hockey team.You still have to sell tickets and one way of doing that is winning.

    NHL is not the AHL.

    Spots should never be gifted in the NHL.

    AHL is the development league.

    That’s where you gift ice time and see what they can do.

    OKC couldn’t draw 3000 to AHL playoffs games with 5 vets leading the scoring.

    Bakersfield averaged over 7,000 for regular season ECHL games.

    The quality of play in Bakersfield will be much higher than they are used to, even if you ice a bunch of 20 year olds.

    No worries about selling tickets there.

  103. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Platzer, Chase and Nurse stepped in at the end of the season and they all produced at better rates than the incumbents.
    Perhaps its just a problem with the quality of prospects rather than the developmental system.

    I don’t rate many of those players very high, but that’s besides the point.

    I see no value at all to playing a line of AHL vets in all the key situations while prospects, even meh ones like I listed get 8min-10min per night.

    Its like planting a garden with B grade cucumber seeds then deciding not to water it because the seeds aren’t very good.

    If you watered it you might get a good bread pickle or two.

    Not watering it does nothing to help and everything to hurt.

    I want prospects that take jobs too, but if the NHL team has them on contracts not playing them in favour of vets is just making a bad situation worse.

    imo.

    As I said in Supernova’s last development article:

    Drafting gets you prospects, development gets you players.

    Oilers have always had lots of prospects because they never had enough players.

  104. jonrmcleod says:

    RexLibris: Then again…pretty ladies in the pictures, frequent talk of golfing in the interior of BC and “spirited” conversations about beverages…jargon be damned!

    Interestingly, I don’t golf, don’t drink, and only look at pictures of my wife. 😉

  105. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: oliveoilers: Said the Edmonton Oilers as they justify gifting minutes to kids from 2010 onwards.

    Everyone, regardless of age on that AHL team, and remember although it IS a development team for the Oilers, it is also a professional hockey team.You still have to sell tickets and one way of doing that is winning.

    NHL is not the AHL.

    Spots should never be gifted in the NHL.

    AHL is the development league.

    That’s where you gift ice time and see what they can do.

    Don’t forget.

    The Barons won. Lots.

    They still couldn’t sell tickets.

    The AHL is and likely always will be a development league. So long as the NHL club is footing the bill then ticket sales be damned, gate receipts are not going to make or break an AHL team that is in the pocket of a wealthy and committed NHL owner.

  106. RexLibris says:

    jonrmcleod: Interestingly, I don’t golf, don’t drink, and only look at pictures of my wife.

    And LT still validates your parking here? He is truly a gentleman!

    🙂

  107. Woodguy says:

    B S,

    Good post.

    Also, this is very important.

    A 19 or 20 year old will not be as good in the AHL as a 26-30 year old AHL vet.

    They just won’t be.

    Even the high end picks will not be as good defensively, not have their man strength, etc. etc.

    It doesn’t matter, you play them regardless.

  108. Woodguy says:

    B S,

    Who did Lander beat out for the 1st line center role last season? why didn’t he do it 2, 3 years ago?

    Arcobell was 1C in 11/12 and 12/13. (Lander was mostly an Oiler in 11/12….lordy)

    Lander was 1C in 13/14 and 14/15.

  109. Lewis Grant says:

    That is a classic example of what I call a Freudian Typo. Especially funny that it falls under the banner of a long standing and fairly staid publication like THN.

    Years ago I was a THN subscriber. I remember when Kevin Dupont (or maybe it was Bob McKenzie) had his farewell issue as editor, and in his editorial, was recounting some of the memorable moments of his tenure. One featured a typo in the phrase “we spent countless hours”.

    It was missing a particularly important O.

  110. PhrankLee says:

    I don’t want to jam anyone up but this is the kind of discussion I relish.

    Ryan and GMoney and WG have really put some mustard on their comments recently.

    All I can think of is my grandmother’s mustard pickled green beans now..

  111. jonrmcleod says:

    If Adam Larsson signed for six years at $4.16 million per season, shouldn’t the Oilers be able to get Klefbom signed for a bit less?

  112. jonrmcleod says:

    Also, this puts a damper on the dream of trading for Larsson.

  113. B S says:

    Woodguy:
    B S,

    Who did Lander beat out for the 1st line center role last season? why didn’t he do it 2, 3 years ago?

    Arcobell was 1C in 11/12 and 12/13. (Lander was mostly an Oiler in 11/12….lordy)

    Lander was 1C in 13/14 and 14/15.

    Exactly. Lander didn’t “earn” those minutes as others on here have defined it, he was “gifted” those minutes when Arcobello moved on.

    Now I don’t think having Arco play above him on the pecking order hurt his development, but Lander was still playing a top 6 role below him, and getting plenty of minutes (if I recall correctly). The difference with Moroz then is that he hasn’t been getting the minutes. Now, the argument can be made that better prospects than him have received the time, but at 5 minutes a night we really don’t know. By all accounts he played very well in the playoffs.

    I think the better move is to let go of Hamilton, or play him 15 minutes a night, and circulate the remaining time among the prospects and see which ones fight their way to the top. If none of them are making the grade in what you believe to be a reasonable time (based on Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton the Oilers seemed to think this was 5 years), then you cull the roster, resign Hamilton or another proxy, and keep going until you have another prospect you want to develop in that role.

    I think part of Moroz’s problem is they don’t know what they want him to be. (another is likely Mono during a critical development year). Personally I’d like to see them try him out on the PP in the Ryan Smyth role and otherwise work his way up from a shutdown forward role such as he had in Junior, until space clears up ahead of him on the roster, either by being moved out or underperforming.

  114. commonfan14 says:

    Pickles stink.

    All you pickle fan-boys are just pushing a narrative.

  115. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Pageau is likely to spend quite a bit of time in the ECHL imo, and Miller could make the NHL team.

    Not that it means anything but I saw Pageau good last season in his limited time.

  116. Revolved says:

    I think it’s difficult to argue with the bread pickles side of things, in that players who you hope to develop into the NHL have got to play. The competition for ice time should be between prospects, with vets playing only sparingly.

    However, I don’t think there are too many who would argue with the banana peppers suggestion that the oilers were pretty thin on prospects last year. Those we had played in the NHL and/or got hurt, this hurting their scoring totals.

    It is not news that we have had a drafting and development problem, but with the 2013 draft arriving in the AHL this year, we can hope for a change. I hope the oilers find more young, undrafted prospects like Pakarinen soon, as we now have about 100 drafted D and no forwards for 2017.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah all that veteran presence didn’t help Nyquist & Tatar even a little bit, just blocked their path to success.

    Gord damned Detroit model never did produce anything of merit.

    That sound you hear is the point wooshing over your head.

    If Miller, Ford and Hamilton were among the top 6 wingers on that team, both Nyqvist and Tartar wouldn’t have received top 6 TOI.

    It looks like Grand Rapids had 2 vets (Johnson and Conner) playing top 6 F positions (Brunnstom was on his last chance Texeco as a prospect, went to the SEL the next year)

    The rest of the scoring F’s were:

    Pare – 24
    Andersson – 22

    Minard played 39 games as well as a vet, but missed the first half of the season with a concussion.

    So DET has 4 prospects playing in the top 6 at any given time and not 4/6 vets like OKC.

    That’s my point.

  118. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    If Adam Larsson signed for six years at $4.16 million per season, shouldn’t the Oilers be able to get Klefbom signed for a bit less?

    That would be almost the perfect contract for Klefbom.

    Thankfully MacT isn’t making the final decision.

    He said you can’t have all your D making $4MM so he’d probably give Dreamy $5MM.

  119. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: 3 forwards and 2 D, that’s not bad.

    Issue is that MIller, Hamilton, Ford and Hunt were 4 of their top 5 scorers last year.

    Miller and Hunt were on entry levels deals last year. They were college UFA’s. Hunt had one year on an AHL deal in Chicago.

  120. B S says:

    Just some food for thought (pickles peppers etc.), but another important part of development is the role. Most of these prospects aren’t going to be top line players in the NHL, if they were they’d probably already be in the NHL (forwards, more specifically, defencemen come from everywhere). The skills they need to develop may not be the same as roles they might be given on a win-now farm team. Defensive responsibility and defensive play are big for prospect players as most of them aren’t going to see a lot of PP or OZ time when/if they hit the NHL.

    When we talk about development minutes and incumbency I think we need to bare that in mind. I suggest Ryan Hamilton as an incumbent for Moroz because I see Moroz as needing top 6 offensive minutes as part of his development. His offense is currently the least certain part of his game and it would be important to develop it, and part of his career could be as an occasional complimentary player on a skill line. He could also end up as a checking forward, but the need will still be there for scoring.

    In another way Chase has shown a touch of scoring in the past, but if he’s going to play as checking forward he’ll need to log DZone minutes and develop his defensive game. Lander did a lot of this before he took over as a top line AHL center.

    To point out the opposite case would be Alexandre Giroux, who was a top line scorer in the AHL, but never had the speed or defensive game to make it in the big show. Developing a player with those skill sets might work for a team like Nashville, starved for high-scoring players, but not for Edmonton, where we already have those players and need the checkers and shutdown men.

    As I’ve seen a bit of the Providence Bruins over the years, Khocklachev (probably spelliing it wrong right now) is a scoring forward (~1ppg, plays soft minutes (OZ, weaker competition)) with little to no defensive awareness or checking. Unless you need some top 6 scoring he isn’t much use. I.e. he hasn’t developed other aspects of his game that would be useful on many NHL teams including the Oilers.

    I guess my rambling point is that a player’s skills and awareness are what are being developed, and are what we should be worried about regarding time as it is taken up by veterans. If we’re trying to develop offense in our prospects, then we should avoid veterans whose main role is providing offense, or reduce those veterans’ ice time. If we want to develop a prospect as a 2 way center, then we should be giving that player those minutes, not a 29 year old AHLer who can probably do it fine at the AHL level but isn’t getting called up (providing him with a veteran winger; however, is a good way to implement veteran leadership into your development program without blocking).

  121. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Miller and Hunt were on entry levels deals last year.They were college UFA’s.Hunt had one year on an AHL deal in Chicago.

    Good point.

    Also,

    Kirk Ludeke started his own blog: scoutingpost.wordpress.com

  122. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: That would be almost the perfect contract for Klefbom.

    Thankfully MacT isn’t making the final decision.

    He said you can’t have all your D making $4MM so he’d probably give Dreamy $5MM.

    Nah, he’d challenge Klefbom on a couple of back-to-back one-year contracts, just to make sure McDreamy was old-schooly enough before trading him for a 3rd and a 5th.

  123. godot10 says:

    RexLibris:

    The AHL is and likely always will be a development league. So long as the NHL club is footing the bill then ticket sales be damned, gate receipts are not going to make or break an AHL team that is in the pocket of a wealthy and committed NHL owner.

    Nelson put

    McDonald, Vandevelde, Arcobello, Paajarvi, Lander, Petry, Schultz, Marincin, and Klefbom into the NHL in 5 years. 1.8 players per year.

    Tweeners who didn’t find the right situation (Omark, Hartikainen, arguably Rajala, Chorney, Hunt)

    On the verge (Pitlick, Miller, Pakarinen, Davidson, Musil, Osterle)

    That is an awful effing lot of development.

    Neither Tambellini, nor Chiarellit gave 2-year NHL contracts to plus 25 year old guys like MacT gave to Ryan Hamilton and Will Acton. And MacT had the nerve to unfairly dump on Scott and Nelson after a couple of months on the job.

  124. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    If AHL vets are used to mentor the prospects they would be spread through the lineup. For instance one vet on each forward line would mean eight prospects playing forward with a vet to play the Derek Roy role.

    One or two vet Dmen on separate pairs, if more than one. I’m not sure Hunt would be the mentor I would choose.

    Watch those cucumbers hit the sauce then.

  125. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Nelson put

    McDonald, Vandevelde, Arcobello, Paajarvi, Lander, Petry, Schultz, Marincin, and Klefbom into the NHL in 5 years.1.8 players per year.

    Tweeners who didn’t find the right situation (Omark, Hartikainen, arguably Rajala, Chorney, Hunt)

    On the verge (Pitlick, Miller, Pakarinen, Davidson, Musil, Osterle)

    That is an awful effing lot of development.

    Neither Tambellini, nor Chiarellit gave 2-year NHL contracts to plus 25 year old guys like MacT gave to Ryan Hamilton and Will Acton.And MacT had the nerve to unfairly dump on Scott and Nelson after a couple of months on the job.

    This list is really stretching things. I like Nelson, he did (imo) a good job for the Oilers in developing talent. The original post focused on the TWENTY YEAR OLDS and that is the conversation I’m having. There’s little doubt Nelson did well with the college kids and the older pro’s but that list is wildly out of balance. Schultz? Paajarvi? Come on.

  126. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: This list is really stretching things. I like Nelson, he did (imo) a good job for the Oilers in developing talent. The original post focused on the TWENTY YEAR OLDS and that is the conversation I’m having. There’s little doubt Nelson did well with the college kids and the older pro’s but that list is wildly out of balance. Schultz? Paajarvi? Come on.

    Nelson did fine with Marincin, Klefbom, Musil, Davidson, Paajarvi, and Pitlick (who couldn’t stay healthy) who were all 20-year olds when he got them. Broissoit also. And Rajala (but MacT didn’t keep him around.) Khaira jumped a whole bunch of guys from day one. Nelson isn’t the guy who signed both Acton and Williams (MacT was the guy) to block Yakimov and Khaira from more ice time at centre.

    MacT was the guy who re-signed Curtis Hamilton (and Pakarinen) to block Moroz. Was that a mistake? So Moroz’s competition was Pakarinen, Curtis Hamilton, and Kessy, and Ewanyk…because Khaira pushed Ewanyk to wing the day he arrived in OKC.

    MacT eventually realized his mistake and traded Acton.

    Nelson played Pakarinen, Hunt, Miller, Acton, and Ryan Hamilton who all were MacT/Eakins guys. Moroz was a Tambellini draft pick. Maybe Nelson was just following orders. Yakimov (a MacT guy) got played ahead of Khaira (a Tambellini guy).

    Yoiu always write that a new GM will play his guys. So why the intimation that it is Nelson’s fault.

  127. Lowetide says:

    godot10:

    Yoiu always write that a new GM will play his guys.So why the intimation that it is Nelson’s fault.

    I think Nelson did an excellent job overall. Then 20-year old kids didn’t get played enough. I don’t know if that’s coach or GM.

  128. JJ says:

    Re-post from a couple of days ago.

    Kyle Dubas discusses prospect development philosophy
    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/orlando-solar-bears/2015/7/23/9019313/kyle-dubas-discusses-prospect-development-philosophy

  129. A'bunadh says:

    Lowetide: I think Nelson did an excellent job overall. Then 20-year old kids didn’t get played enough. I don’t know if that’s coach or GM.

    Nelson was coaching to get an NHL head coaching job. He’s coaching to win. If the GM is giving him veteran players that are able to give him more now than what the up and coming prospects can of course he’s going to play them more. Nelson having the tools to win and not using them so he can develop the Mitch Moroz’s is not going to happen.

  130. Lowetide says:

    A’bunadh: Nelson was coaching to get an NHL head coaching job.He’s coaching to win.If the GM is giving him veteran players that are able to give him more now than what the up and coming prospects can of course he’s going to play them more.Nelson having the tools to win and not using them so he can develop the Mitch Moroz’s is not going to happen.

    Disagree. If the GM hires Matt Ford, that doesn’t mean he’s going to get cherry minutes. Ford can and did play multiple roles. GM’s job to get kids playing time.

  131. A'bunadh says:

    Lowetide: Disagree. If the GM hires Matt Ford, that doesn’t mean he’s going to get cherry minutes. Ford can and did play multiple roles. GM’s job to get kids playing time.

    And in Nelson’s best interests to play to win. Not sure how you can blame him for that.

  132. supernova says:

    knighttown:
    Perhaps I’m sensitive to the last decade of Oilers losing but if I ran the AHL team I would make damn well sure my team was at least average. Getting your teeth kicked in every night is crippling and should be avoided at all costs. So sure, like Norfolk, if your kids are good enough to make sure your team is pretty good go ahead and get rid of the veterans. If they aren’t, sprinkle in vets as needed until you are decent to good.

    Including Miller is misleading as he’s brand new to the professional game and is a legit prospect regardless of age. Hunt too, last year. So really, there for 3-4 no chance vets taking minutes. And by the metrics you can tell that they played well and produced. That’s pretty close to sprinkling.

    For every negative check mark earned by having a Moroz lose prime minutes there are positives for better prospects like Lander getting prime minutes with players that can keep up. More positives for a team of young guys going on a long playoff run and winning more than they lose.

    You can like the way the Barons have been handled (I do) but not like the way that Moroz and others have been handled. Suggesting Moroz be gifted tons of minutes has an impact on the prospects that are ready like Lander. He got to play with good players every night and his good passes became goals and he scored a lot because good players got him the puck in good spots.

    Had Moroz been shoved onto his line you’d be looking at early Lander NHL all over again; dragging around players that simply can’t yet play at the level needed.

    The answer here is easy. Make up your list of important prospects. Then look at the Condor depth chart. If a player on list number one is well down the depth chart then put him in the ECHL and recall him when spots open up. Way better option than giving him the juicy spot on the team when he hasn’t earned it.

    Development 101 means having a specific and customized plan for every prospect. While Moroz might be graded a D, Lander and others plans have been executed extremely well since the clusterfuck of his rookie season.

    B S,

    Woodguy,

    There is a legitimate difference between gifting ice time and being put in a position to succeed.

    If the discussion is Moroz.
    How is playing Moroz on average under 7 minutes a game a position to succeed?
    In the NHL who plays 7 minutes a night and performs well ? The dying entity of thugs is the answer, and they don’t play well.

    Why would you spend assets and allow a still developing 19-20 year old man compete against a 27-28 year old man with hundreds of man games of experience ?

    If you wanted Moroz to succeed a “gifting” might be playing him in the Minors for the first 5-8 games with a Veteran Center like Williams and a offensive winger like Miller.

    Other organizations do this in the NHL and the AHL

  133. supernova says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Also, this puts a damper on the dream of trading for Larsson.

    Only for a while ?!

  134. supernova says:

    B S:
    Just some food for thought (pickles peppers etc.), but another important part of development is the role. Most of these prospects aren’t going to be top line players in the NHL, if they were they’d probably already be in the NHL (forwards, more specifically, defencemen come from everywhere). The skills they need to develop may not be the same as roles they might be given on a win-now farm team. Defensive responsibility and defensive play are big for prospect players as most of them aren’t going to see a lot of PP or OZ time when/if they hit the NHL.

    When we talk about development minutes and incumbency I think we need to bare that in mind. I suggest Ryan Hamilton as an incumbent for Moroz because I see Moroz as needing top 6 offensive minutes as part of his development. His offense is currently the least certain part of his game and it would be important to develop it, andpart of his career could be as an occasional complimentary player on a skill line. He could also end up as a checking forward, but the need will still be there for scoring.

    In another way Chase has shown a touch of scoring in the past, but if he’s going to play as checking forward he’ll need to log DZone minutes and develop his defensive game. Lander did a lot of this before he took over as a top line AHL center.

    To point out the opposite case would be Alexandre Giroux, who was a top line scorer in the AHL, but never had the speed or defensive game to make it in the big show. Developing a player with those skill sets might work for a team like Nashville, starved for high-scoring players, but not for Edmonton, where we already have those players and need the checkers and shutdown men.

    As I’ve seen a bit of the Providence Bruins over the years, Khocklachev(probably spelliing it wrong right now) is a scoring forward (~1ppg, plays soft minutes (OZ, weaker competition)) with little to no defensive awareness or checking. Unless you need some top 6 scoring he isn’t much use. I.e. he hasn’t developed other aspects of his game that would be useful on many NHL teams including the Oilers.

    I guess my rambling point is that a player’s skills and awareness are what are being developed, and are what we should be worried about regarding time as it is taken up by veterans. If we’re trying to develop offense in our prospects, then we should avoid veterans whose main role is providing offense, or reduce those veterans’ ice time. If we want to develop a prospect as a 2 way center, then we should be giving that player those minutes, not a 29 year old AHLer who can probably do it fine at the AHL level but isn’t getting called up (providing him with a veteran winger; however, is a good way to implement veteran leadership into your development program without blocking).

    Agree with this

  135. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lewis Grant:
    That is a classic example of what I call a Freudian Typo. Especially funny that it falls under the banner of a long standing and fairly staid publication like THN.

    Years ago I was a THN subscriber.I remember when Kevin Dupont (or maybe it was Bob McKenzie) had his farewell issue as editor, and in his editorial, was recounting some of the memorable moments of his tenure.One featured a typo in the phrase “we spent countless hours”.

    It was missing a particularly important O.

    Haha that is a beauty. The best Freudian Typos contain more than a kernel of truth in them & it is easy to imagine this one did too.

  136. GCW_69 says:

    Pouzar: This.

    Hate the Hunt signing. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it.
    Give Leggs the reigns.

    Completely agree. Joey’s strength is offence and Hunt’s strength is offence, so who does the coach who wants to win give the minutes to? Don’t we want to see Simpson, Oesterle, Musil and Gernat take on bigger roles? Why put Hunt in their way? If you want the veteran leader on defence, sign a guy with NHL experience who will player deeper in the order.

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