RE 15-16 ANDREW MILLER: THIS MUST BE THE PLACE

For modern fans, a lot of the mystery is taken out of prospect watching. We see these kids as teenagers a dozen or more times and have an idea about what makes them good and special. I kind of miss the old days, when the legend could build and the anticipation had a chance to do the same. Andrew Miller was a delight, because I didn’t know he was so fast and had so much skill. It was a fantastic surprise.

ANDREW MILLER 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.47
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00
  • Qual Comp: 16th toughest competition among all forwards (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among all forwards (second line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.2%
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -10.5
  • Zone Start: 42.4%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 14 shots/7.1%
  • Boxcars: 9GP, 1-5-6 .667

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

miller vollman

RE 15-16: 26GP, 3-6-9 .346

  1. How hard was it to find a punk song for a Yale grad? Exhausting.
  2. Is he really fast? Much faster than I thought he’d be, Miller can keep up with the skill guys and that’s important.
  3. Who did he play with? Anton Lander and Taylor Hall were his most common linemates. Small sample size alert, but he did score 2.07/60 at 5×5 with Taylor Hall.
  4. He had five EV points and a 1.47/60 overall? Yes. One of his points was a penalty shot goal. 5.25/60 at 5×5 with Keith Aulie. Small sample sizes are like LSD (or so I’ve heard).
  5. What did the original scouting reports say? Corey Pronman: The 24 year old center is a classic small, skilled college player. Miller displays above-average qualities in terms of his speed, puck skills and overall offensive instincts. In his Senior season especially he showed the ability to consistently create scoring chances and keep the play flowing in the right direction.
  6. Where is he on the depth chart? I have him starting in the AHL but as you can see getting significant NHL time.
  7. Is he waiver eligible? I believe he qualifies for waivers under article 13 13.4-13.4 (section D).
  8. So they could lose him? Sure, but he’s not a famous player and every team has someone like him. A year from now he might be a bigger part of the team but I expect he’d clear this fall.
  9. Oilers are doing more college work since Bob Green took over. Yes. Agreed.
  10. Who have the Oilers signed via college free-agency in recent seasons?
    1. March 8, 2011: Oilers sign Taylor Fedun from Princeton. (11 NHL games).
    2. March 19, 2011: Oilers sign Tanner House from Maine.
    3. March 31, 2011: Oilers sign Hunter Tremblay from University of New Brunswick.
    4. April 4, 2011: Oilers sign Mark Arcobello from Stockton (via Yale). (119 NHL games).
    5. July 1, 2012: Oilers sign Justin Schultz from Wisconsin. (203 NHL games)
    6. April 17, 2013: Oilers sign Andrew Miller from Yale. (9 NHL games)
    7. April 1, 2014: Oilers sign Jordan Oesterle from Western Michigan. (6 NHL games)
  11. College guys seem to like Edmonton. I spoke to Tom Lynn on the Lowdown in the winter, he told me the number one thing college kids are looking for in signing with an NHL team is opportunity. Lynn said a team (like Edmonton) that gives opportunities (and NHL minutes) to college free agents after signing them gets noticed and the agent (ahem, adviser) uses that when discussing destinations. Bottom line: Andrew Miller’s success bodes well for Edmonton in the next free-agent negotiations.
  12. Can Miller replace Arcobello? I think Marcobello has more range—he’s a center, more responsible defensively—but Miller has some nice things, too. Great passer, can play with skill. Speed.
  13. How many skill RW’s are ahead of him to start camp? I’ll say Eberle, Purcell, Yakupov and if Leon moves over that’s going to be a tough hurdle.
  14. You have him ahead of Pakarinen and Slepyshev? I have him ahead of Pakarinen, but it’s close. Slepyshev is listed as a LW so I have him there. If the Russian were a RW, I’d have Miller ahead for now but things could change in TC.
  15. I sense you’ve bumped Miller and Pakarinen since McLellan arrived. McLellan is a big ‘you have to get to places’ coach from my observation, his teams are fast and aggressive. Miller is listed at 5.10, 181 by the AHL website, which is small but McLellan does employ these player types (Matt Nieto is basically the same size) because they’re fast and can pass plus forecheck like demons. That’s why I think these men have a chance.
  16. Who would he play with? That’s the beauty of a skilled winger who can play up and down the lineup. He could play with Hall—McDavid. Pouliot—Nuge, Purcell—Lander, Korpikoski—Letestu, and he’d probably be brilliant with Leon Draisaitl.
  17. Would he play with Leon in Bakersfield? That’s a strong possibility. I think Slepyshev—LD—Miller or R.Hamilton—LD—Pakarinen are the most likely combinations.
  18. What will he do in Bakersfield? Point-per-game, thereabouts, maybe more. He’s (imo) bona fide now, a made man. Miller is in that window of development where he’s AAAA, overqualified for the AHL and not yet an NHL player. He’s proven he can flourish in the AHL and now needs an opportunity.
  19. How often do these kids get an opportunity? They honestly usually do get it. NHL teams usually value a prospect enough to give them some NHL games. Toni Rajala is a recent negative example, but he got lost in the flood of MacT assuming everything was wrong in the system. It happens a lot when teams change over, that’s why really good players sometimes shake loose for free. Bad organizations.
  20. Example? Charlie Simmer.
  21. Example from this century? Patrick Sharp.
  22. Why this song? Talking Heads are perfect for a roster with uncertainty, because nothing is exactly as it appears. The character in the song is looking for ‘home’ and it’s definitely a love song. However, it includes the lines “guess I must be having fun” and “the less we say about it the better” and “Home is where I want to be, but I guess I’m already there” so it’s not exactly perfect. It’s like if my Grandpa wrote a love song, with help from Louis L’Amour. It’s that damned David Byrne! No one gets to enjoy themselves!

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31 Responses to "RE 15-16 ANDREW MILLER: THIS MUST BE THE PLACE"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Today on the Lowdown, 10am TSN1260.

    10:05 Brian King (PDO) NonStopSportsPicks. Talking Eskimos!
    10:25 Jeff Veillette, Canucks Army. Canucks! What the HELL are they doing?
    11:05 Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line.
    11:25 Chris Perkins, South Florida Sun Sentinel

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    gotta wonder if McDavid makes a career for a guy like Pakarinen or Miller

    like if you can click or keep up with the guy and finish the empty net shots, CMD will get you to 300 games in the league

  3. dessert1111 says:

    I’m a huge fan of guys like these but I think you may be over hyping him a bit. No shame, we all have our favourites. IIRC half his NHL points were more of the fluke variety (3 in one game was it?), and it seems like the only real thing to set him apart is speed. With his tiny size though (5’10 is extremely generous I believe) I think it will take a lot breaking loose (I.e. injuries, trades, poor performances) for him to get more games than last year. A good skill callup option but I’d rather see the younger guys get more shots.

  4. Pouzar says:

    For all the tech Geeks up in here….

    I am using Chrome and can’t get rid of the lag between page uploads.
    The status bar shows “Resolving Host” and the browser just spins it’s wheels.
    It’s so frustrating because I have tried everything and the damn issue is so frickin intermittent.
    Same issue in I.E. as well.

    Thx in advance.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    I have been watching NHL network, they are playing the Washington v. Islanders 2015 play-off. Those games are tough, everyone is finishing their checks and not much space. We have a lot of stick wavers that would not excel in that type of hockey.

  6. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I guess we’ll need a pipeline of cheap players to fill out the roster. Miller did look good, so I’d like to see him get some games in again this year.

    Just a thought on the running gag that is 3-scoring lines. This has been talked about since 2007, but really when is the last time that we had even 2 honest to god scoring lines?? You know, that doesn’t need to be sheltered, isn’t -35 at the end of the year? I remember the “Hemsky line scores and no one else years”, now there’s the Hall years, and to an extent RNH and Ebs. Without overstating the obvious, McDavid will give this team 2 stellar lines no matter how the coaches mix and match. If they can make up a third line that doesn’t get destroyed, that’s a big improvement. Having 5 guys in the top 9, plus a Gadzic, that need to be sheltered hasn’t been working…

    PKR

  7. Rube Foster says:

    This is the magic of LT.
    He takes one of my favourite songs, by one of my favourite bands and permanately melds said song to a hockey player – who as a consequence will become one of my favourite Oilers.
    I always pulled for Marcobello, an undersized underdog who made it happen with guts, guile and Ivy League determination. I’ll be cheering for a similar outcome for Andy Miller.

  8. LoDog says:

    Pouzar,

    Have you changed ISP’s recently?

    Easiest thing is probably to change your DNS server. Have you tried that?

  9. Gret99zky says:

    Two things I learned today:

    1) Andrew Miller if fast.

    2) Punk music is not what I thought is was.

  10. Pouzar says:

    LoDog: Pouzar, Have you changed ISP’s recently?Easiest thing is probably to change your DNS server. Have you tried that?

    Nope. Have not Changed ISPs.

    I changed the DNS server addresses to 8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4 for Internet Protocol Version 4

    Doesn’t fix the issue. One of the many things I’ve tried.

    Cheers

  11. Pouzar says:

    More relevant to the discussion a few days back, but this from Gerry Fleming:

    “We’re going to have a young team here this year,” he said. “(The Oilers) want us to develop. That’s why we’re playing fewer games this year. There will be a lot more practice time, there will be a lot more teaching time, there will be a lot more focus on video, (the) individual aspect of teaching the game. It will be more of a development basis this year than a go-go structure.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/8/6/fleming-s-media-tour-dallas-eakins-and-okc

  12. Hammers says:

    Miller and Pak both have a good shot on the wing with Leon or Lander and the other one a winger . Those 2 plus either Miller or Pak could be good .

  13. Showerhead says:

    At this point in the list (earlier, really) you pick the guy(s) you like the most, cheer like hell, and hope that they earn enough ice time to be on the team but aren’t counted on for anything remotely important. If Miller or Pakarinen or Slepyshev play a major role on the 2015/2016 Oilers, it is more likely that something terrible happened than something good.

    That said, if a guy finds a way to stick and learns how to keep the puck moving north in a limited role, he becomes all kinds of useful in the next couple of years.

  14. Hammers says:

    Showerhead:
    At this point in the list (earlier, really) you pick the guy(s) you like the most, cheer like hell, and hope that they earn enough ice time to be on the team but aren’t counted on for anything remotely important. If Miller or Pakarinen or Slepyshev play a major role on the 2015/2016 Oilers, it is more likely that something terrible happened than something good.

    That said, if a guy finds a way to stick and learns how to keep the puck moving north in a limited role, he becomes all kinds of useful in the next couple of years.

    Totally agree and at least one of those three must make it , hopefully two.

  15. ASkoreyko says:

    Pouzar:
    More relevant to the discussion a few days back, but this from Gerry Fleming:

    “We’re going to have a young team here this year,” he said. “(The Oilers) want us to develop. That’s why we’re playing fewer games this year. There will be a lot more practice time, there will be a lot more teaching time, there will be a lot more focus on video, (the) individual aspect of teaching the game. It will be more of a development basis this year than a go-go structure.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/8/6/fleming-s-media-tour-dallas-eakins-and-okc

    I think this will be exactly what a lot of people around here were hoping to hear from the Oilers farm-team coach. Almost verbatim actually.

    Not to bring this up again but has this team ever had such a franchise altering summer as this one? It honestly seems like almost the entire list of complaints against the Oilers from us have been resolved in one off-season!

    I know some people would still like to see MacT and Howson being shown the door and that may still happen. It just seems like the good news keeps coming and it is getting harder and harder for me to still think that the Oilers are being run by a bunch of clowns. It would appear all the blind spots are being removed, one by one.

    We all are waiting for summer to be over, but this has to be one of the best summers we have had in a long long time.

  16. wheatnoil says:

    ASkoreyko: I think this will be exactly what a lot of people around here were hoping to hear from the Oilers farm-team coach. Almost verbatim actually.

    In fairness, I remember MacT had some similar concerns about the playing of veterans in the AHL when he took over as GM, yet here we are two years later having the same discussion. So, the verbal is promising, but let’s give it the year and see how it goes.

    Edit: I’m trying to find the MacT quote and can’t seem to dig it up, so I’m going just based on memory… which is often inaccurate for me… so take what I said with a grain of salt.

  17. ASkoreyko says:

    wheatnoil: In fairness, I remember MacT had some similar concerns about the playing of veterans in the AHL when he took over as GM, yet here we are two years later having the same discussion. So, the verbal is promising, but let’s give it the year and see how it goes.

    Edit: I’m trying to find the MacT quote and can’t seem to dig it up, so I’m going just based on memory… which is often inaccurate for me… so take what I said with a grain of salt.

    I seem to remember the same thing, so I don’t think you are that far off.

    The one thing I will say to counter that is it is one thing to hear it from MacT who might not deliver the same exact message to Nelson and it is another to hear it directly from the coach himself.

    Nelson is a competitive guy, as evidenced by his desire to leave the Oilers after he was not given a fair shake and perhaps he decided that building a dominant AHL team was in his own better interest then developing for the Oilers and not being able to point to a sterling record in the AHL as he tries to secure NHL employment again.

    I think we have all had our boss tell us how they envision the future of our area and that does not always jive with what YOU had envisioned. It is just nice to see Fleming already talking about exactly what we want to hear. The added part about him not having a big ego is another bonus I think (bizzaro-Eakins?).

  18. Revolved says:

    In reference to:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/08/05/jordan-eberle-actually-had-a-20-per-cent-offensive-zonestarts-percentage-in-2014-15-not-63-per-cent/

    This has been a topic on here, so I thought I would add this:

    I can see where you’re coming from here, but although more data may always seem better, it often just serves to confuse.

    If I look at the spearman (rank) correlation between off zone start (OZ) % and corsi rel (CR) % league wide at 5×5, I get a correlation of .425. Distinctly higher than for QoC, but lower than for QoT. This suggests it is quite an important stat affecting CR% results and all the things that follow (just to address your previous article).

    If I look at the correlation of CR% to offensive, neutral and defensive zone start %, I get correlations of .401, .015 and -.410 respectively. None of these are better than the ratio OZ%, though they are close, which suggests that it is needlessly confusing to present all the numbers when one will suffice.

  19. godot10 says:

    Gret99zky:
    Two things I learned today:

    1) Andrew Miller if fast.

    2) Punk music is not what I thought is was.

    Punk music was a revolt against the cold unfeeling technicians of seventies “rock” music. Rock had lost the roll. Punk brought it back.

    The Talking Heads were regulars at CBGB’s, the cradle of punk.

  20. Revolved says:

    I know you said it would be close, but I do think that Pakarinen will get more games played and more points than Miller in the NHL this year.

    I think Miller caught lightning last year playing with Hall, and he will not get that opportunity again.

    Pakarinen can crash and bang enough to stick around even when he’s not putting it in the net. IIRC, he had a crazy number of shots per game, which gives his line mates lots of opportunities too. For the fourth line RW, I’d put my money on Pakarinen after Pitlick gets injured and Klinkhammer moves to LW.

  21. Revolved says:

    godot10: Punk music was a revolt against the cold unfeeling technicians of seventies “rock” music.Rock had lost the roll.Punk brought it back.

    The Talking Heads were regulars at CBGB’s, the cradle of punk.

    I am getting the feeling from this RE that it could have been a straight up Talking Heads RE, but something was missing. Why do you hate Talking Heads, LT?

  22. godot10 says:

    wheatnoil: In fairness, I remember MacT had some similar concerns about the playing of veterans in the AHL when he took over as GM, yet here we are two years later having the same discussion. So, the verbal is promising, but let’s give it the year and see how it goes.

    Edit: I’m trying to find the MacT quote and can’t seem to dig it up, so I’m going just based on memory… which is often inaccurate for me… so take what I said with a grain of salt.

    MacT sign two older AHL vets (Ryan Hamilton and Will Acton) to 2-year NHL contracts, which basically no sane NHL GM gives more than one year deals to such players. He also signed Brad Hunt. Added Joensuu on a TWO-year NHL deal. And brought in Grebeshkov and a tweener like Phil Larsson. All on NHL deals.

    Tambellini was never that excessive with AHL level vets and tweeners.

    All the guys MacT brought in were basically not NHL’ers.

    Meanwhile Nelson put Oiler draft picks Colin McDonald, Chris Vandevelde, Taylor Chorney, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Magnus Paajarvi, Anton Lander, Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Fedun into the NHL.

    MacT was shooting off his yap without thinking, and then promptly made things worse.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Revolved: I am getting the feeling from this RE that it could have been a straight up Talking Heads RE, but something was missing.Why do you hate Talking Heads, LT?

    Ahem. From July 20:

    25. The Talking Heads are the RE? I’m going off the grid for this edition and will use ALL new music from about 1976 through 1982 (or so). Expect to see lots of new wave and possibly obscure choices, Television, Iggy, Jam, Buzzcocks. Look out! I couldn’t find one artist who fit the group this time.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/07/20/re-15-16-taylor-hall-once-in-a-lifetime/

  24. wheatnoil says:

    Revolved,

    Thanks for that!

    For those on Twitter, Micah McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) is doing some cool work on shot generation on shift starts, whether that’s off a face-off or on the fly. It seems that whether you start a shift off a D-zone face-off or a neutral zone face-off, your ‘shots for’ are remarkably similar. O-zone face-offs see a significant increase in shot rates for the first 15 seconds or so after the face-off before things even out. Since shots against are inverse of this, you can see how neutral zone face-offs tend to even out when it comes to shots for/against.

    Today, he’s got some graphs out that show what happens when a team changes on the fly. The early results seem to be that it doesn’t matter where the puck is when you get on the ice, if the next event is in the offensive zone, shot generation is much higher than if the next event is in the neutral or defensive zone. That, obviously, isn’t surprising. What is surprising is that it seems to take almost 30 seconds for the benefits of an offensive zone event to diminish… much more than the 15 seconds off a zone start.

    It seems if you immediately enter the o-zone after changing on the fly, it has a longer impact than if you start the shift in the o-zone.

  25. Revolved says:

    Lowetide: Ahem. From July 20:

    25. The Talking Heads are the RE? I’m going off the grid for this edition and will use ALL new music from about 1976 through 1982 (or so). Expect to see lots of new wave and possibly obscure choices, Television, Iggy, Jam, Buzzcocks. Look out! I couldn’t find one artist who fit the group this time.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/07/20/re-15-16-taylor-hall-once-in-a-lifetime/

    You don’t have to explain yourself to me. Just given how many players you found a Talking Heads song for, I just thought you could find something from the rest of them. They have 10 albums and you’ve only touched the hits! David Byrne even has a ton of music outside this name – What an artist!

    You clearly put a lot of thought into the connections between song and player, so I won’t question your methods.

  26. Revolved says:

    wheatnoil,

    As Staples says, a faceoff is just one of a thousand battles during a hockey game. Clearly the 50/50 of a faceoff leaves you with less of a chance of sustaining pressure than your team actually having possession when you come on the ice.

    However, OZ% is an extreme tell as to how a coach employs a player. I would suggest that this means Gordon was going over the boards into defensive positions even on the fly (which would further suppress his CorsiRel% beyond the OZ% number).

    The OZ% number is just too strong a correlate to Corsi for it to be ignored when talking about a player’s results. Although, I should really look at something more tangible than Corsi, such as high danger shots or GF% to make sure it’s not just garbage you’re getting with the OZ push.

  27. wheatnoil says:

    Revolved:
    Clearly the 50/50 of a faceoff leaves you with less of a chance of sustaining pressure than your team actually having possession when you come on the ice.

    That’s what I figured too. Woodguy also threw out the possibility that if you’re changing on the fly going into the o-zone, the defensive team may not be able to make a change and therefore be more tired. Tired defenders may equal more shots against.

    The OZ% number is just too strong a correlate to Corsi for it to be ignored when talking about a player’s results.Although, I should really look at something more tangible than Corsi, such as high danger shots or GF% to make sure it’s not just garbage you’re getting with the OZ push.

    I agree, though you may not see a huge difference in GF%, given goals are relatively rare yet face-offs are quite common. Hence using corsi. I’m not sure if it’s been correlated with high danger shots, though, which may be interesting if it shows something different.

  28. Revolved says:

    wheatnoil,

    I’ll see what I can do!

  29. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    godot10: Punk music was a revolt against the cold unfeeling technicians of seventies “rock” music.Rock had lost the roll.Punk brought it back.

    The Talking Heads were regulars at CBGB’s, the cradle of punk.

    Punk, like Rap is a social statement, a social reaction to economic reality and economic philosophy. It’s not a stylistic musical rebuttal.

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