RE 15-16 MARK FAYNE: SKYWAY

Mark Fayne spent the winter backing up. The Edmonton Oilers, the team called chaos, wasted his talents with turnovers and errant passes to no one. All is not lost, as this summer brought a lot of good things to Edmonton, and those things are going to fit Mark Fayne very well.

MARK FAYNE 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.52 (6th among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: 3rd best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 55.3
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +1.5
  • Zone Start: 47.6% (toughest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 51.3% (4th best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 88 shots/4.55%
  • Boxcars: 72GP, 4-7-11

MARK FAYNE 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.33 (6th among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: 3rd best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.2%
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -7.0
  • Zone Start: 42.9%
  • Zone Finish: 48.4%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 78 shots/2.6%
  • Boxcars: 74GP, 2-6-8

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

vollman oilers blue 1415

RE 15-16: 64GP, 3-7-10 .156

  1. They need more from Fayne. Fayne needs more from them.
  2. How so? Fayne isn’t going to be the puck mover on his pairing. He is a good defender but his partner is going to need to move things along under control. Edmonton gave up the puck after getting it back a ton last season. Ghastly. Fayne’s value is neutralized immensely if the team he plays for turns the puck over all the time. New Jersey made use of him, Edmonton not so much.
  3. Fayne has to take some blame. Sure, he could have been more effective, but if you roll the tape Edmonton is in their own zone far too much, and a lot of that comes from being unable to exact 50 seconds off the clock outside their own zone on each possession. Fayne’s worry is to separate puck from opponent, and then make a simple play. The rest is on the linemates, including puck gathering, support, safe outlet, 50 seconds. Fayne’s Devils did it regularly, Fayne’s Oilers didn’t have a care.
  4. So what? If you’re on your heels, it’s GA and the penalty box. That’s a fact.
  5. Says who? Darryl Sutter.
  6. Oh no. Here it comes.
  7. I’m sorry. Please don’t. In three, two…..
  8. Dammit! Darryl Sutter:The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.  I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”
  9. Who did he play well with? Nikita Nikitin. They were 49.6% Corsi for 5×5 together and that was in 300 minutes. He was also stupid good in 15 minutes with Brandon Davidson.
  10. His possession number is poor. Considering that he was playing with Martin Marincin a lot (Marincin is good, but a young player) and Nikita Nikitin (who had some health and mobility issues) I don’t think the possession number is a huge negative. Give him a healthy veteran, an Andy Greene, and we should see a 50% or better possession number 5×5.
  11. He’ll be a solid pairing with Sekera. If they are the top pairing, and that’s the logical play, one suspects that duo will be one of the key elements for the 2015-16 Oilers.
  12. Did McLellan have anyone like Fayne? You mean tough minutes defensive defender who doesn’t score a lot but has value as a stay-at-home type?
  13. Yes. That’s what I mean. Justin Braun, although they aren’t identical talents.
  14. So, McLellan ran Vlasic—Braun in SJ, and Sekera—Fayne is the closest available match? Yes. Vlasic is on another level, but this is a pretty good comparable for those tough minutes pairings. I do think the chances of success are pretty high.
  15. Fayne didn’t play much last season. He was used less than you’d expect for a veteran (17:56) last season but a lot of that had to do with a combination of tough zone starts and chasing the game with mondo Schultz minutes. He was 15 minutes at evens and 2:29 on the PK, I think we can estimate a return to 16 EV minutes a night (he did that in 2013-14 with the Devils) and he should get those tough starts again in 2015-16.So, we’re talking between 18 and 19 minutes a night.
  16. What do you like about him? He knows his role and is a veteran. Fayne when he came over: “Andy (Greene) and I usually played against the other team’s top line (in New Jersey) and they didn’t expect too much from us offensively. Eating up minutes against the top guys. It’s a definite challenge but it keeps you on your toes.”
  17. Aside from Sekera, who could he play effectively with? As mentioned, he and Nikitin played well together last season and my RE model has them together to start the coming season.
  18. Anyone else he could play with? Klefbom I imagine although it didn’t work well in a short look last year. I think Marincin would have been a dandy partner going forward, would have loved for McLellan to get a look at big MM for a season.
  19. Is this player type going away? I’d say we’re morphing now, heading toward ‘two-way’ and ‘offensive’ defensemen, with men who don’t handle the puck much getting squeezed. Fayne can make the simple pass, and he is a good defender, for me that player will be around for a long time.
  20. Why aren’t we able to measure defensive ability? It’s hard to see any trends at all. Most of the new analytics are measuring passes (which partner makes most of them, how successful they are) and those measures are important, interesting. However, an NHL team still needs someone to battle and keep the puck between themselves and the net.
  21. How would you measure that? I don’t know, ‘sorties successfully defended’ would be a good start, but we mostly see these things visually and discount them.
  22. Discount them? Yes. When something doesn’t happen, it’s quickly forgotten. Human nature. Remember when Chris Pronger would defend a two-on-one as an Oiler? A two-on-one against 2006 Pronger was basically like a one-on-one because he’d use the tree to knock the puck away or lambaste someone or do something fantastic. However, most successful defenses aren’t that spectacular, despite their value.
  23. So? Well, those successful moments, each one of them, has value. I’ve not seen a league-wide stat for sorties defended for an entire year, but that kind of measurement would have some value. And if a player showed up in a good way year after year, that player would hold great value.
  24. Don’t we already know who defends successfully? Hmm. I’d say we know what we THINK a good defensive defenseman looks like, but I still see a lot of verbal discounting a guy like Sekera because he isn’t physical.
  25. You need physical, smashmouth defensemen. Nah. Mark Fayne had 14 PIMS last season, Jason Smith had 103 PIMS in 2001-02. Same job. Penalties are extremely harmful, so coaches have taken them from the game (as much as possible).
  26. Among Oilers prospects, which defensive defensemen do you like the most? Well, as I mentioned the two-way and offensive types are more prominent in today’s hockey, but Edmonton has invested quite heavily in the position. David Musil, Brandon Davidson, Dillon Simpson, Ben Betker and others could fit into the description, although for me Simpson is more of a two-way type. Still, Musil was a high pick, you don’t see many No. 31’s going to this player-type. Interestingly, all of these men had good-to-great seasons, McLellan will have a nice group to choose from should the need arise.
  27. Why this song? It’s about seeing an opportunity pass you by, something you’ve been waiting for, anticipating. Mark Fayne is 28, 316 games into his NHL career and may have 500 more with the Oilers, filled with glory and silverware. However, it’s not promised to him in a way it is promised to McDavid, Hall et al. Fayne will have to rely on his own ability, the recognition of coaches (who clearly value him, based on usage), luck and health to be part of this team when the good times arrive.
  28. Will he make it? Yes, I think so. The Oilers need to be better around him, though. Players like Fayne tend to be associated with wins and losses more than others, probably because the boxcars simply don’t tell us much about them. That’s my take on Fayne’s first year.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

84 Responses to "RE 15-16 MARK FAYNE: SKYWAY"

  1. Lowetide says:

    today on the Lowdown, 10 on TSN1260. Dennis King at 10, Jay Morrison fro the Dayton Daily News to talk Bengals at 10:25. 11 o’clock tick tock, I’ll let you know.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Pronman’s top 100 prospects are out:

    1. McDavid
    20. Nurse
    56. Reinhart

  3. Lowetide says:

    Bohologo:
    Perfect timing, LT; yesterday I was poised to ask why you hated the Replacements.

    Are they the greatest band that never made it big?

    One of the biggest problems I had this series was narrowing down which song to represent specific artists. Impossible with several, including the Replacements.

  4. Bar_Qu says:

    I think Fayne is perfect to complement the “defense by committee” thing which Edmonton will need to use going forward this year and next. There isn’t enough in the defense to smother any team with one tandem, but if you can throw three pairs over the boards which can limit the damage regularly, then it will paper over the individual weaknesses. That is the value of what Edmonton has on D this year, especially if Schultz can learn to play without the puck.

    At the very least, Fayne this year should bring the ability to calm things in his own end, like Sutton used to do a few years back.

  5. Mr. D. says:

    When you look at a defensive dman and you talk corsi you are missing the point that they are shutdown guys and seldom have good corsi especially on a bottom team. The eye test if knowledgeable is a better( subjective) evaluation.

  6. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    Pronman’s top 100 prospects are out:

    1. McDavid
    20. Nurse
    56. Reinhart

    Also worth noting he’s got Barzal at #13 and Mitchell Stephens (who went #33) at #86.

    Good things to say about Reinhart, though, and reiterates that he’s mobile and high-end defensively.

  7. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    wheatnoil: Also worth noting he’s got Barzal at #13 and Mitchell Stephens (who went #33) at #86.

    Good things to say about Reinhart, though, and reiterates that he’s mobile and high-end defensively.

    If we traded Nurse for Barzal right now, Would Chiarelli make it out of Edmonton alive?

  8. wheatnoil says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we traded Nurse for Barzal right now, Would Chiarelli make it out of Edmonton alive?

    If he did and ran east, I’d catch him before he got past Saskatchewan (would see him coming once he crossed Lloyd).

  9. Bag of Pucks says:

    If we’re trying to better quantify the efficacy of defensive defencemen in specific and defensive play in general, wouldn’t ‘zone time’ be the foundational metric to build upon for a suitable proxy?

    Obviously, it’s hugely influenced by QoC, QoT and ZS, but at the end of the day, the best defencemen are gaining control of the puck quickly and moving it out of their zone quickly.

    Where the data gets messy, and Fayne is a perfect example, is factoring in the team effects. If Fayne is first to the opposition shoot in by a mile but the winger or his D partner bungles his pass, Fayne is penalized. This is where Sutter’s possession quote becomes so illustrative. Ference loves rimming it off the glass and out, so theoretically he’s getting it out of the D zone quickly, but because the team can’t establish possession with these grenades, the puck inevitably returns.

    A solid pass accuracy stat is an advanced stats game changer too, hence why we need the chip in the puck. If the Dman is consistently putting it on the tape, that’s the foundation for a strong Dman regardless of how the rest of the team processes that output.

    All of this is a convoluted way of saying Justin Schultz sucks btw.

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    wheatnoil,

    Good to know. I’ll cover the South.

    I do find these rankings odd for that reason. Barzal substantially ahead of Nurse, despite it being a trade that, realistically, I think 0 out of 30 NHL GM’s would make. There are probably loads of other good examples like that to make, I simply use Nurse and Barzal because I’m familiar with both.

  11. Hammers says:

    No matter who he plays with the coaches need to get the whole team at least thinking defence or we will be in the bottom 8-10 teams . Team D wins games

  12. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil: Also worth noting he’s got Barzal at #13 and Mitchell Stephens (who went #33) at #86.

    Good things to say about Reinhart, though, and reiterates that he’s mobile and high-end defensively.

    Believe Stauffer said Edmonton would have taken Joel Eriksson Ek at 16, had they not traded it. Ek is at 91.

  13. linkfromhyrule says:

    Does anyone know if Draisaitl was ranked in Pronman’s prospect rankings?

    Nurse being behind Barzal is a headscratcher for me, but without seeing the reasoning behind it I’m not about to lose my mind over it.

    I happened upon a Phlegm’s blog and they were crying because Jankowski wasn’t in the top 100 lmao. Also freaking out about Bennett only being #5. Their salty tears sustain me.

  14. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    wheatnoil,

    Good to know.I’ll cover the South.

    I do find these rankings odd for that reason.Barzal substantially ahead of Nurse, despite it being a trade that, realistically, I think 0 out of 30 NHL GM’s would make.There are probably loads of other good examples like that to make, I simply use Nurse and Barzal because I’m familiar with both.

    Defensemen always get the short end of the straw in prospect rankings.

    Forwards are easy: Look at the boxcars, usage (PP time mostly), size, and type of game, and presto, you have a pretty good idea of how a forward compares to his peers.

    Defensemen often don’t get rewarded with points (especially the stay at home types), usually look poor on bad teams (they are always hemmed in their own end and don’t have anyone to pass to) and of course look terrible when the other team scores.

    There are likely 10 highlights on UTube of Barzal schooling someone for a nice goal. I doubt there are many of Nurse playing 30 minutes a night and calmly breaking up 2 on 2’s or making outlet passes.

  15. TheOtherJohn says:

    For everyone that thinks Reinhart at 56th isn’t bad, he was 20th on the same list last year. Nurse was 23rd

  16. bendelson says:

    Minneapolis – 1979.

    Paul Westerberg and Bob Mould.
    (and a strange, funky little fella named Prince)

    Great stuff LT.

    To piggyback on Bohologo’s comment above, what is ‘replacement level’ for the Replacements?

  17. wheatnoil says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I think Ducey makes a strong point about Defensemen prospect rankings. I think Pronman tends to undervalue them a little bit, possibly due to difficulty with projecting D-men.

    For example, although Barzall is 13th on the list, he’s the 12th highest ranked forward (Hanifin is the only D ahead of him).

    Nurse at 20th is also the 3rd ranked defenseman, with only Hanifin and Werenski (at 19th) ahead of him.

    Edit: Reinhart is the 11th ranked D prospect. There are only 9 defensemen in the top 50, including 3 between 41 and 50. So D-men really take a hit in these prospect rankings.

  18. Ducey says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    For everyone that thinks Reinhart at 56thisn’t bad, he was 20th on the same list last year. Nurse was 23rd

    Who does Pronman have ahead of Reinhart as far as D go?

  19. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    Pronman’s top 100 prospects are out:

    1. McDavid
    20. Nurse
    56. Reinhart

    As someone mentioned, Barzal at 13, Beauvillier at 66, Kylington at 35 ought to get a few folks riled up around these parts.

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ducey,

    HIcketts, Deangelo, Roy, Theodore, Kylington, Morrisey, Provorov, Nurse, Werenski, Hanifin.

    so just outside the top 10 D prospects

  21. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey: Who does Pronman have ahead of Reinhart as far as D go?

    Hanifin #8
    Werenski #19
    Nurse #20
    Provorov #31
    Kylington #35
    Theodore #41

    some of it

  22. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    wheatnoil,

    Good to know.I’ll cover the South.

    I do find these rankings odd for that reason.Barzal substantially ahead of Nurse, despite it being a trade that, realistically, I think 0 out of 30 NHL GM’s would make.There are probably loads of other good examples like that to make, I simply use Nurse and Barzal because I’m familiar with both.

    Pronman almost always favours skilled forwards over two-way forwards and D and G prospects. So this should not surprise.

    McDavid-Eichel-S. Reinhart-Marner-Bennett-Nylander is his top 6 and the first D is Hanifin at 8

  23. wheatnoil says:

    Also worth noting that in regards to prospect rankings, younger players tend to get the bump as they have higher potential ceilings. Reinhart, at 21, is among the older prospects on this list. Every year that goes by tends to decrease the potential ceiling. You can see on that prospect list the value placed on the 2015 draft.

    With every passing year, some prospects graduate off the list (like Draisaitl, who played >25 NHL games), and those that don’t often fall as their ceiling becomes more clear making room for the new younger prospects with high potential ceilings.

    So for the older prospects, you have to question why they didn’t graduate off the list. For Reinhart, he’s a D-man (so already hit hard in these rankings) and he was stuck behind a pretty deep left side on the Islanders. So it’s not unreasonable. At 21 years old, the only prospects his age or older ahead of him on the list are Panarin (who was playing in the KHL) and Hudon (skilled winger with a strong rookie pro season).

  24. Pouzar says:

    Lists. meh.

    McDavid/Nurse gonna blast this rebuild into overdrive.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Pronman almost always favours skilled forwards over two-way forwards and D and G prospects. So this should not surprise.

    McDavid-Eichel-S. Reinhart-Marner-Bennett-Nylander is his top 6 and the first D is Hanifin at 8

    Only 3 defensemen in his top 30.

  26. wheatnoil says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    Does anyone know if Draisaitl was ranked in Pronman’s prospect rankings?

    Criteria is 25 NHL games this last season or 50 NHL games total. Draisaitl didn’t qualify.

  27. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    You guys see this from a couple of days ago? Oilers #9 ha ha ha.
    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/08/best-logos-in-sports-dallas-cowboys-boston-celtics-pat-patriot-washington-bullets
    It’s a really, really strange list.

  28. John Chambers says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    Honestly I’ve often found Pronman’s rankings to be a departure from the consensus opinion. Funny enough, I think our pal DSF is a scion of Pronman and has frequently cited him when over-hyping a certain prospects.

    To wit, Pronman for the longest time trumpeted both Florida and Minnesota’s prospect pools as being the deepest and broadest. Florida had the #1 ranking for a while because they had top prospects at all positions including goal (Jakub Markstrom), defense (Kulikov), and up the middle with Shore and Bjugstad. Meanwhile Minnesota had world-beaters Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, and Matt Dumba as their next-generation list of killers.

    I understand Pronman is well-respected for his detailed analysis of prospects, but he clearly develops his own favorites which don’t always jive with the stats.

    Like Pouzar just wrote – Lists. Meh.

    DSF could make his own list and we could debate it all day, and I’m pretty sure he’d have a reason why McDavid wouldn’t be #1 on the list.

  29. B S says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    OT:
    NYCOIL, I don’t know if you’ve been to Waterton Lakes before, but I used to go there every summer.

    my recommended hikes/ spots would be:
    Carthew-Alderson (a.k.a. the Summit), it has an absolutely gorgeous view as you come over the ridge from Cameron Lake and you can take a shuttle up and walk back to the town sight.

    Crypt: once ranked one of the top 10 day hikes in Canada, before you round up to the lake itself (supposedly great fishing if you can get the gear up there) there should be some fantastic views of the valley, plus there’s a tunnel.

    Rowe Lakes and Lineham Ridge (leads to Tamarack Trail). From the Ridge you get a great view of the meadow and the surrounding peaks on either side.

    Red Rock Canyon

    and If you’re coming from the south you might miss it, but when you head north from the park entrance there are some great views of the mountains on either side of the border. ~45 minutes North there’s a little restaurant attached to a general store in Twin Buttes that has good Burgers and Mexican food.

    The Goat Haunt is a pleasant hike near the Lake and across the Border, but doesn’t have a lot of scenery. It’s mostly trees.

    Bertha Falls is nice, but I find the hike up to Bertha lake to be less scenic than the ones mentioned above.

  30. John Chambers says:

    Also, Matthew Barzal is bullshit. Like total Kyle Wellwood / Sam Gagner.

    16 goals in 50 games last year including playoffs. He’s a good puck distributor, but I see problems with him maturing into a major-league player. If you can’t score in junior, and you have a slight frame that can’t separate a grown man from the puck, I’m not convinced that this player type can succeed even as a 2nd line centre in the majors.

  31. Ducey says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Ducey,

    HIcketts, Deangelo, Roy, Theodore, Kylington, Morrisey, Provorov, Nurse, Werenski, Hanifin.

    so just outside the top 10 D prospects

    So lots of newly drafted guys (who are still shiny) and good skating, offensive D men. It seems like he is looking at boxcars more than anything. Any of those guys considered 2 way types? Any regard for quality of competition?

    I have wonder how he has Joe Hicketts there. He put up nice numbers in junior, but he is 5’8″ and was never drafted. I’d respectively disagree that there is any way he is ahead of Reinhart. I wouldn’t think Kylington or Roy would be either.

    I think its safe to say Reinhart and Nurse can be regarded as in the top 10 of defense prospects in hockey. Given the variability of opinions, the uncertainty of development, etc. that’s pretty good.

  32. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    B S,

    Thanks. Haven’t been to Waterton since about 1992 so much appreciated.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    Bohologo: Given how many times the Replacements sabotaged their own success, they are a perfect fit for the Oilers.

    Is it reasonable to characterize the band as justly underrated?

    Somewhat lousy back line(goaltending and defence)…

    Slightly hit and miss in the offense department…

    A team(band) that you want to win, while they find ways to crash and burn…

    You have a point.

  34. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey,

    Kylington and Hanifin are two-way types. But I wouldn’t worry too much about the rankings, either. You just know Barzal vs. Reinhart will be forever debated and this round goes to the Islanders.

    But I always said so what. The Oilers traded from excess to address need and so did the Islanders. Best case scenario these two teams are meeting in the 2020 Cup Finals with Reinhart on our blue and Barzal playing in their top six.

    Win-win would be fine by me.

  35. SwedishPoster says:

    Ducey: So lots of newly drafted guys (who are still shiny) and good skating, offensive D men. It seems like he is looking at boxcars more than anything. Any of those guys considered 2 way types? Any regard for quality of competition?

    I have wonder how he has Joe Hicketts there. He put up nice numbers in junior, but he is 5’8″ and was never drafted.I’d respectively disagree that there is any way he is ahead of Reinhart.I wouldn’t think Kylington or Roy would be either.

    I think its safe to say Reinhart and Nurse can be regarded as in the top 10 of defense prospects in hockey.Given the variability of opinions, the uncertainty of development, etc. that’s pretty good.

    Kylington was actually seen as a two way guy up to this season, where suddenly every scouting report became about how useless he was defensively. I still struggle to understand Kylingtons fall from grace and it angers me that bloody Calgary picked him up.

  36. B S says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    The town site has changed a lot. New hotels, no more pool, but the scenery probably hasn’t changed much since then (might be some dead spots since the blights droughts over the last decade though).

  37. vishcosity says:

    Bag of Pucks: f we’re trying to better quantify the efficacy of defensive defencemen in specific and defensive play in general, wouldn’t ‘zone time’ be the foundational metric to build upon for a suitable proxy?
    Offensively, it’s hugely influenced by QoC, QoT and ZS, but at the end of the day, the best defencemen are gaining control of the puck quickly and moving it out of their zone quickly.

    So to measure defensemen, by this,

    DD = 60% (zone time) + 10% (QoC) + 10% (QoT) + 10% (ZS) + 10% (5v5P/60)
    OF = 10% (zone time) + 10% (QoC) + 10% (QoT) + 10% (ZS) + 60% (5v5P/60)

    ?

  38. vishcosity says:

    bendelson:
    Minneapolis – 1979.

    Paul Westerberg and Bob Mould.
    (and a strange, funky little fella named Prince)

    Great stuff LT.

    To piggyback on Bohologo’s comment above, what is ‘replacement level’ for the Replacements?

    Gordon Gano?

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: As someone mentioned, Barzal at 13, Beauvillier at 66, Kylington at 35 ought to get a few folks riled up around these parts.

    I might get riled up if I thought consensus draft rankings had much predictive value outside the top ten picks.

    I don’t.

  40. bendelson says:

    vishcosity: Gordon Gano?

    The Violent Femmes?

    They bring ALL their equipment on the bus.
    You can’t fuck with the Violent Femmes!

  41. TheOtherJohn says:

    Has Barzal, Evgeni Svechnikov, Kyle Connor, Jeremy Roy all ahead of Reinhart and we could have had any 1 of the first 3 and Roy at 16 & 33 (albeit with a sweetener to move from 33 to 31)

    Pronman last year had 4 D ahead of Reinhart and this year has

    Hanifin #8
    Werenski #19
    Nurse #20
    Provorov #31
    #32 Morrisey
    Kylington #35
    Theodore #41

    Jeremy Roy, Hicketts and DeAngelo ahead of Reinhart

    Also has Ivan Barbashev (2nd rd traded with MPS for Perron) at #28. He’s a very good prospect at top of 2nd round

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    John Chambers:
    Also, Matthew Barzal is bullshit. Like total Kyle Wellwood / Sam Gagner.

    16 goals in 50 games last year including playoffs. He’s a good puck distributor, but I see problems with him maturing into a major-league player. If you can’t score in junior, and you have a slight frame that can’t separate a grown man from the puck, I’m not convinced that this player type can succeed even as a 2nd line centre in the majors.

    reminds me of Grigorenko

    passed over 15 times but fans are sure he’ll be a star

  43. vishcosity says:

    bendelson,

    I heard Krissy Hynde was walking downtown Minni and found them street performing.

    First album released 1981 so I think its close to the RE window. I forget the parameters.

    If Stan Weir got a song/album, could it be/include Add It Up?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHapDS2fcFE

    EDIT: It was in 1981 they were discovered by a Pretender’s band member, not Chrissie Hynde, though she apparently invited them on stage. And their first album came out in 83. If I actually finished reading their wiki page before hitting post…

  44. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bag of Pucks: I might get riled up if I thought consensus draft rankings had much predictive value outside the top ten picks.

    I don’t.

    I said a few folks. We know they will make an appearance at some point. Please keep your rational thoughts to yourself. 😉

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    vishcosity: So to measure defensemen, by this,

    DD = 60% (zone time) + 10% (QoC) + 10% (QoT) + 10% (ZS) + 10% (5v5P/60)
    OF = 10% (zone time) + 10% (QoC) + 10% (QoT) + 10% (ZS) + 60% (5v5P/60)

    ?

    It would certainly be interesting to see what type of Dmen those equations spit out on a list to see if they correlate with what our eyes are telling us.

    We need that chip in the puck for zone time. Absolutely zero reason you couldn’t put a chip beneath each of the red and blue lines with some type of GPS coordinate transponder to calculate zone time down to milliseconds. C’mon NHL, adding some sort filters to your website doesn’t cut it. The nerds are awake and we’re hungry – for data!

    True ‘big data’ along these lines will revolutionize this field of study. I kind of laugh to myself sometimes when I hear what we have now described as ‘advanced stats.’ We’re using rough and rudimentary proxies all over the place and their contextual usage varies vastly with variable controls seemingly nonexistent in some cases.

    EPL football is miles ahead of the NHL on this stuff. Reliable shot location data compiled and displayed by half-time ffs.

  46. Cahoon says:

    B S,

    I worked in Waterton for 6 summers, my absolute favorite hike is Akamina Ridge. The trail head is Akamina, you go up to Forum lake, around to the top of the ridge. At the top of the ridge 270 degrees of your view is just mountain range as far as you can see. Then come down the other side of wall lake, which brings you back to the connecting trail. It’s an unreal hike for the summit view, and Wall Lake is beautiful. The only other hikes that rival it for a summit view in my opinion are Vimy, and Lineham ridge. Carthew-Alderson is a good hike with a nice view, no repeat trail, and for a full day hike it is relatively easy. Crypt is nice, but on my opinion overrated. I also value being alone on trails more than most people, and crypt is one of the more busy hikes in Waterton (still quiet compared to most Banff hikes lol).

    I absolutely love Waterton, whatever hike you do shouldn’t disappoint, unless the haze from the fires is still prevalent, it was when I did Akamina 2 weeks ago.

  47. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: EPL football is miles ahead of the NHL on this stuff. Reliable shot location data compiled and displayed by half-time ffs.

    Hmm, in fairness, shot location data is part of the NHL RTSS i.e. it’s available as a real-time feed during the game, never mind half-time.

    Of course, it’s got lots of errors.

    And, oh yeah, it’s in JSON format, so you also have to have a utility to read and extract the data for each event in the RTSS.

    But hey, them’s details!

  48. bendelson says:

    vishcosity,

    If you’re going to go to the trouble of editing for accuracy, it occured in Milwaukee and not Minneapolis…

    Go Oilers!

  49. Revolved says:

    Lowetide:

    21. How would you measure that? I don’t know, ‘sorties successfully defended’ would be a good start, but we mostly see these things visually and discount them.

    What a great question. Unfortunately, I think that ‘sorties’ might be too broad an event to score and that if ‘successfully defended’ means no goal against, it does’t isolate a single player and involves very few events.

    That being said, two on one’s are a very scorable (albeit uncommon) event that isolates a single defender and, since they are such a tough situation, measures defensive ability directly.

    You wouldn’t get enough data from a single game, but if you looked at a season of hockey, I feel like you could probably sort out the guys who know what they’re doing. To add a little resolution, you could actually score the outcome on a graded scale, such that a clean break up is a 0, a shot from outside the danger area is a 1, a shot from inside the danger area is a 2, etc.

    I’ll try to do this when I watch the games next year and see what I get.

  50. stevezie says:

    Bohologo,

    As a huge fan, i resemble that remark.

    The violent femmes are also amazing.

  51. LoDog says:

    stevezie:
    Bohologo,

    As a huge fan, i resemblethat remark.

    The violent femmes are also amazing.

    Love the violent femmes but hadn’t listened to them for a while. I know what I am listening to this afternoon at work.

    Fayne was not great last season, hopefully can do a little better this year.

    As for Pronman’s list it all kinds of crazy. Barzal? 12 goals in 44 games Barzal? Ya ok.

  52. Woodguy says:

    I have a pet way of rating Dmen that takes into account the ability of defensive Dmen as well as offensive Dmen.

    If you go to the Fenwick page for Dmen for the Oilers (or any team that you like) you will see a column titled “OPPFF60” (click update player stats)

    This is the Opposition’s Fenwick For/60 for the player.

    That is the average Fenwick For/60 of every player they faced and then prorated by the TOI against those players.

    Basically it tells you what you could expect for a Fenwick Against/60 for that player if they were an average player on an average team who saw those exact opponents that exact amount of time. (its not quite that as different players see different levels of comp, but its the best I got)

    You then contrast that to the Actual Fenwick Against/60 of that player and get your difference (or delta)

    If the player had a higher FA/60 than the OPPFF/60 then they were worse than expected average and if they had a lower FA/60 then they did better than average.

    This method doesn’t take into account zone starts but its not bad.

    It also doesn’t take into account team effects.

    LAK and DET are very, very good as limiting FA as they always have the puck, so their DMen show up quite good by this metric.

    Shitty teams tend to have shittier results, so when you see Dmen on shitty teams with a nice big negative (negative meaning they allow less FA than average and therefore are good) via this metric, it means something.

    One reason I really like using Fenwick for Dmen is that it gives credit for a blocked shot instead of counting all shot attempts. This helps define the “defensive Dman”

    That being said, here are the FA/60 to OPPFF/60 deltas for the Oilers last year from best to worst. (note: doesn’t include Petry as David’s site doesn’t give partial season data)

    FAYNE, MARK -0.86
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR -0.64
    NIKITIN, NIKITA -0.40
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 1.21
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 1.22
    FERENCE, ANDREW 6.34
    AULIE, KEITH 6.34

    By this metric Fayne was the most effective Dman in limiting unblocked shots against on the Oilers.

    He allowed 0.86 less unblocked shot attempts per 60 than the average player did against the same group of opponents.

    Quite good actually considering EDM ranked 23rd in FA/60 last year.

    Klef is also dreamy.

    Followed by Nikitin as the only other Dman who was better than average.

    The nice thing about this metirc is that it also matched my eye last year and I always find comfort in a metric that matches what we think we see. (I never hated Nikitin like most, he looks way worse than he actually plays because of his Tin Foil Hat moments)

    Man I hope Ference doesn’t play another shift for the Oilers.

  53. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    Yet another evaluation method that suggests quite clearly that Ference is the biggest problem on the back end.

    Interesting that it also doesn’t paint Marincin in a particularly positive light. Schultz’s poor result, especially when considering zone starts, matches the eye test nicely.

    The more time I spend away from the season, the more time I have for Nikitin… don’t get me wrong he still makes me nervous, but there’s an outside chance that he’s not a total tire fire next year. The only game I managed to attend in person last year was the pre-season game against Vancouver when he got hurt, and based on what I saw it wouldn’t surprise me if he was playing hurt all year. That looked nasty.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Interesting that it also doesn’t paint Marincin in a particularly positive light. Schultz’s poor result, especially when considering zone starts, matches the eye test nicely.

    Marincin isn’t awful given his ZS and tougher comp, but its not great.

    Here’s 13/14’s deltas.

    No Oiler player did better than average. Oy Rookie coaches. Way to bench you best bet too eh?

    BELOV, ANTON 1.48
    PETRY, JEFF 2.81
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 3.99
    LARSEN, PHILIP 4.4
    FERENCE, ANDREW 7.68
    FRASER, MARK 7.71
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 8.03

    Looking at last year compared to 13/14 its easy to see that getting Schultz the easy OZS and Klef really helped him.

    What a gong show year.

    Man, Ference again.

    Nice Dcorpse MacT.

    It was after this year that he made the Norris comment too.

    *shudders*

  55. TheOtherJohn says:

    Thanks for this Darcy

  56. dustrock says:

    D corpse is right. Nice analysis.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Excellent stuff, Darcy. Very interesting numbers on Fayne, encouraging.

  58. Woodguy says:

    Thanks all.

    I think this ranking works best as a relative rank against their team mates rather than across teams as the better FA teams will dominate the top of the list.

    I think a big part of Ference’s number is usage.

    They’ve been playing him 1st and 2nd pair since he got here and that’s above his current ability.

    If he plays 3rd pair this year I expect his results to be better.

    I’d rather he didn’t play for the OIlers next year at all instead of 3rd pair though.

    I can’t see Nurse and Reinhart being worse bets than him.

  59. B S says:

    Cahoon,

    Akamina has been my achilles heel for waterton hikes. I can never get very far into it before something goes wrong so I stopped trying, maybe the next time I’m there. Rained like hell one year (blue skies and nothing on the radar when I headed out, started on the trail head and 10 minutes later it’s a torrential down pour), couldn’t see more than 3 feet in front of me another year because of the flies, couldn’t breath for flies flying into our mouths. Closed for a mother bear another year. Closed for forest fires yet another year we were going to try it if I recall correctly. I have heard good things about that hike though.

    I forgot about Vimy too, I’m glad you brought it up.

    Crypt is definitely very busy. It causes a jam at the tunnel and the rope, and there’s a bit of a time constraint getting up and back down for the ferries which I never liked.

    Summit (C-A) is busy too during the peak season, so you should be sure to book a ride up to Cameron Lake at least a few days in advance. It’s also long enough that it tends to close often for bears or cougars. if one kills something anywhere along the trail the whole thing gets closed.
    At least for the Summit if you’re a fast hiker (as I am) you get clear of the crowds pretty easily and it’s a quiet walk.

  60. Revolved says:

    Woodguy,

    Great stuff WG. Reminds me of Ricki’s constant CA/60 numbers, but normalized. Any chance of a preview on next year’s Dcorps? Thanks!

  61. B S says:

    On topic, I like the Fayne Sekera pairing (with Klef subbing in depending on the situation or team), because it gives us Klef and Schultz (which worked), and then Gryba Nikitin/Ference (please not Ference) for a steady veteran 3rd pairing. Two of those pairings have veteran Dmen, and one has two solid veteran Dmen. The other pair has a history of working already. Start with what works and adjust as needed.

    It also starts Nurse and Reinhardt on the farm, hopefully with Draisaitl. We all love these prospects and expect them to do great things, but they’re rookies (essentially so in Drai’s case) and rookies, despite possibly being skilled and exciting, are generally stupid and make mistakes. Counting on them to not make stupid mistakes seems like a foolish bet and we’re already making that bet on one rookie for sure this season. All three of them will make their way up due to injury and trades at some point, but until then they should be tearing up the minors and playing 25 min. a night down there.

    I believe this no matter how well they do in training camp. TC isn’t NHL games and picking the roster based on TC has never worked for this team. It should be used to assess first call ups not roster players. Unless they want to dedicate the first ten games of the season to assessing the players again.

  62. Cahoon says:

    B S,

    Yeah, we actually had an encounter with the biggest bear I’ve seen in my life (grizzly, and I’ve seen ny fair share of big bears), that was closer than I would like when I did it two weeks back. On the ridge just above wall, which made me think what’s up there for a bear? About 20 meters ahead of us, this grizz just booked it across the ridgeline, and down the other side. I’m pretty sure it caught our scent on the other side, got scared and hightailed it back from whence it came. Scary, but cool at the same time.

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy,

    Good stuff, Woodguy. Encouraging on Fayne, Klef, and Nikitin. I’m with you on Nikitin, who was bad but not torches-and-pitchforks bad. Still think if he somehow shows up to camp healthy (a.k.a. “in shape”) he may have a much more effective season than the disaster many are expecting.

  64. John Chambers says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And it’s a contract year. Never underestimate the motivation of a player who can’t see his paycheques beyond next spring.

  65. B S says:

    Cahoon,

    I’ve only come up on a couple of adult grizzlies, and fortunately not really close (~50-75ft away), but I’m always wary of them out there. I usually hike in groups of 3-4 if I can. It’s the Juveniles you really have to watch out for. Typical teenage mentality. Young and stupid and aggressive.

    Them and Mothers with Cubs. I’ve been 10 ft from a Black bear without batting an eyelash (came out of the bushes while I was fishing and I couldn’t walk away; fortunately I’m a terrible fisherman), just waited for him to pass with my hand on the bearspray, but black bears are usually pretty timid.
    Pretty sure I ran into the same bear at Lineham Ridge two years apart once too. But cubs on a trail are a terrifying sight, especially when you can’t see the mother. Always my biggest fear on the trail.

    Large herbivores are probably the most dangerous though.

  66. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Woodguy,

    Good stuff, Woodguy. Encouraging on Fayne, Klef, and Nikitin. I’m with you on Nikitin, who was bad but not torches-and-pitchforks bad. Still think if he somehow shows up to camp healthy (a.k.a. “in shape”) he may have a much more effective season than the disaster many are expecting.

    +1. Nice work WG. I too didn’t share the vitriol that some had for NN even though I trot out FSN as much as the next guy here. Mea culpa. How bout we just abbreviate FSN to F?

  67. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    Fair comment about usage on Ference, but that’s also the problem.

    The point of veterans is that they’re supposed to provide cover for the kids while they get their feet wet.

    If you are trying to find ways to get your veterans soft minutes, it defeats the whole purpose of having veterans.

    Looking at it another way, a veteran who isn’t doing a fantastic job, but who at least isn’t getting totally killed against tough competition has some measure of value, because the argument is that a kid might do even worse, or in the event that they did roughly the same you could argue it’s bad for their development. For that reason, you stick with the vet.

    That’s not what’s happening here. He’s getting flat out killed, two years in a row. On top of that, while his minutes aren’t easy, he’s also not getting completely thrown to the wolves in a #1D kind of way.

  68. Cahoon says:

    B S,

    I’ll definitely agree with you there, been stalked by a cougar, been face to face with one, face to face with a cinnamon colored black bear, been 15 ft from a teenage grizzly, and with all of that, my scariest wildlife moments were with Moose, or a bighorn sheep in the fall. The big herbivores are the ones you don’t mess with.

    Where were you fishing near Lineham ridge? We used to fish Lineham lakes as a family tradition, then I decided crossing that cliff just for really good cutthroat trout fishing is just craziness.

  69. G Money says:

    B S: Akamina has been my achilles heel for waterton hikes.

    Lately, my achilles heels have been my achilles heels. F**KING TENDONS. F**KING AGE.

    Cahoon: Yeah, we actually had an encounter with the biggest bear I’ve seen in my life (grizzly, and I’ve seen ny fair share of big bears), that was closer than I would like when I did it two weeks back

    Did it mention anything about EVGA/60?

    Woodguy,

    Good stuff WG.

    Funny how bad Nikitin looks by eye at times, and yet almost every fancystat says he’s better than that. And (I’ve been saying this since early last season), I swear there were times that I’ve seen an actual NHL player there.

    If NN comes in and tears it up next year, will we have to admit that *gasp* MacT/Howson were *gasp* right about *gasp* a defenseman?!?

  70. Pouzar says:

    Sidebar: F^ck is American golf coverage ever brutal. Jezzuz Keerist. F6cking over-produced garbage. SHOW GOLF SHOTS ASSHATS!!!!!!!!

    /rant over

  71. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Great stuff Woodguy!

    Another note on Nikitin. There’s a pretty good reason why so many people (including myself) saw him bad, despite the numbers not being too terrible.

    Take a look at who’s last in PDO on the team at 953.

  72. G Money says:

    Pouzar:
    Sidebar: F^ck is American golf coverage ever brutal. Jezzuz Keerist. F6cking over-produced garbage. SHOW GOLF SHOTS ASSHATS!!!!!!!!

    /rant over

    F**K
    F^CK
    F6CK

    This reminds of me old buddy Stu, who has (had) parents of both Irish and Scottish descent.

    His Irish grammy was visiting Canada and was at some point, in fine Irish fashion, criticizing something (probably something British) with liberal use of curse words. Her granddaughter (Stu’s sis) made some sort of “oh! language!” comment.

    To which Stu’s grammy replied (must be said in old lady voice with strong Irish accent for full effect):

    “Oh? So ye don’t like me swearin’, do ya? Well FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK.”

  73. Pouzar says:

    G Money: F**K
    F^CK
    F6CK

    This reminds of me old buddy Stu, who has (had) parents of both Irish and Scottish descent.

    His Irish grammy was visiting Canada and was at some point, in fine Irish fashion, criticizing something (probably something British) with liberal use of curse words.Her granddaughter (Stu’s sis) made some sort of “oh! language!” comment.

    To which Stu’s grammy replied (must be said in old lady voice with strong Irish accent for full effect):

    “Oh?So ye don’t like me swearin’, do ya?Well FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK FOCK.”

    holy f**k I’m cryin!

  74. nez29 says:

    Lowetide,

    My GORD! As I type. I am wearing my “Let It Be” tee. The ‘Mats were practically perfect. Let’s hope the Oil can be , too.
    If you wanna make my day, use of Social Distortion(“Ball and Chain” is good) and some Bad Religion (“Raise Your Voice”) is a great arena song, since ya asked

  75. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    For everyone that thinks Reinhart at 56thisn’t bad, he was 20th on the same list last year. Nurse was 23rd

    Buy low…sell high. Which is what Chiarelli did with Reinhart and Barzal. And which is what one is supposed to do.

    The best time to buy players might be after their 1st AHL season. Most of the downside risk is gone. And the upside potential hype which inflates the value of guys like Barzal in rankings like Pronman’s has worn off.

  76. Cahoon says:

    G Money,

    It’s summer, sorry we’re off topic.

  77. Pouzar says:

    Eskimos @ Als 44.5??? That HAS to go Over…right? Too late…I bet on it already. #sucker

  78. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Buy low…sell high.Which is what Chiarelli did with Reinhart and Barzal.And which is what one is supposed to do.

    The best time to buy players might be after their 1st AHL season.Most of the downside risk is gone.And the upside potential hype which inflates the value of guys like Barzal in rankings like Pronman’s has worn off.

    Agree with this statement. AHL first season causes plunging.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thanks for the Fenwick delta metric WG.

    Great stuff. Really appreciate you taking the time to walk us through it in context.

  80. hags9k says:

    Thanks to LT, WG and G Money for another successful trip to Lowetide.ca. Have a great evening all.

  81. B S says:

    Cahoon,

    Rather belated but, here goes. Sorry I met a Black bear by Cameron Lake while fishing. I then also came within 20ft of a black bear at Lineham Ridge on two separate occasions.

    You think Lineham Lake is crazy, apparently my Grandfather used to fish there at night. You couldn’t pay me enough to walk those cliffs at night.

    To keep it on topic: The true value of Fayne is that he’s like a black bear, whatever the team does and whatever happens around him, he’ll just keep doing what he wants. No charging, no aggression just the bear essentials of a good Dman. It’s one player on the roster we don’t have to worry about to much.

  82. hags9k says:

    Pouzar:
    Lists. meh.

    McDavid/Nurse gonna blast this rebuild into overdrive.

    This!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca