JUJHAR KHAIRA AND THE VANDEVELDE FAULT LINE

Do you know about the Mendoza line? It’s a baseball invention for ‘bad, bad hitter who is somehow a regular’ and is described by Wiki thusly:

  • The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball in the United States, deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza, whose mediocre batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting. The cutoff point is most often said to be . 200 (although Mendoza’s career average was .215) and, when a position player’s batting average falls below that level, the player is said to be “below the Mendoza Line”.

THE VANDEVELDE FAULT

Chris VandeVelde has found his way to the NHL in spite of poor offensive ability. He didn’t make it with the team that drafted him, and the Flyers didn’t have to give up anything to acquire the player. That’s not unusual for this player-type, because their value isn’t high until they’re established and even then most teams have one or two replacement candidates kicking around in the minors.

VandeVelde’s positives include size, penalty kill and faceoffs but math doesn’t pretend to like him.

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.26 (10th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 11th toughest among D (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 13th best available among D (fourth line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.5%
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -8.6
  • Zone Start: 50.9%
  • Zone Finish: 50.7%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 70 shots/12.9%
  • Boxcars: 72GP, 9-6-15

Nothing about VandeVelde suggests (via the numbers) he is helping Philadelphia in any way. He’s fourth line all the way, delivers some offense (most often lines up with P.E. Bellemare and Vincent Lecavalier) but would absolutely be a candidate for ‘worst actual player in the NHL in 2015-16’ and I’m not trying to be rude. Forwards have to deliver at least some offense or they’re not going to last. If VV can’t find a way to post more offense, and that’s not likely, he won’t have a long career in the NHL.

JUJHAR KHAIRA’S OFFENSE

barons centers in 2014-15

Eric Rodgers’ estimates give us a grand look at the AHL centers in OKC a year ago. If you and I were employees of the Las Vegas North Stars (NHL’s new entry beginning 2017) and asked to recommend future NHLErs from this list, Khaira wouldn’t be on it. Anton Lander and Bogdan Yakimov are the possible players here, I don’t honestly think there’s much to argue over.

KHAIRA V VANDEVELDE NHLE

If we can agree that VandeVelde is a good candidate for the NHL’s Mendoza Line, then perhaps VV’s past will give us some insight into Khaira’s possible future. Let’s review the NHLE’s for both men at the same age:

  • Age 17: VandeVelde (USHL); Khaira (BCJHL)
  • Age 18: VandeVelde (USHL); Khaira (23 points)
  • Age 19: VandeVelde (8 points); Khaira (18 points)
  • Age 20: VandeVelde (25 points); Khaira (9 points-AHL)
  • Age 21: VandeVelde (27 points);
  • Age 22: VandeVelde (33 points);
  • Age 23: VandeVelde (9 points-AHL);

It’s miles too early to know, but Khaira has two more years to build on the AHL offense (VV’s NHLE at 24 years old was 12 points) and could develop into a more useful offensive player. As with VV, there are some things beyond offense that make him an interesting player.

  • Red Line before the draft: We believe this kid could be the biggest/best sleeper of the entire draft. Prince George is so far off the beaten path teams don’t even travel there for WHL games, much less BCHL contests, so he gets zero exposure. But this kid is big, mean, aggressive, nasty, and guess what… he can score too. Does the dirty work in the corners, bangs bodies and wins battles, and loves to initiate heavy contact. Powerful stride with great balance and gets leverage on his hits. Has surprisingly soft hands and puck skills with playmaking ability. Creates lots of space for smaller teammates and makes everyone braver. Very raw defensively.
  • Todd Nelson: “He thinks the game really well on the ice and when you couple that with the size and skill he has, it’s going to be a very bright future for him. He’s an intelligent guy. He knows what he has to do to get better and he works hard at it. With his size and maturity and the way he approaches the game, who knows where his top level is, but I think the future is looking really positive for him.”
  • Todd Nelson: “We’ve seen flashes of what JJ can be. He just needs time to mature. We’re trying to mould JJ into a two-way centreman, somebody who can kill penalties, late in games trying to preserve a game. He has the size. He just needs experience.” Source
  • Neal Livingston, Tend The Farm“I see him as a Hartikainen 2.0. If you were concerned about Hartikainen’s foot speed, Khaira has no problems. He’s a quick skater, he’s very fast and good on faceoffs.”

This player could end up in Europe or the AHL, but after a year in the AHL there’s enough to suggest he’ll increase his role in year two and may yet have a career in the NHL. He isn’t batting well beyond the VandeVelde Fault Line, but he has some miles of blacktop before his entry-level deal forces a decision from the Oilers.

BAKERSFIELD 15-16

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

43 Responses to "JUJHAR KHAIRA AND THE VANDEVELDE FAULT LINE"

  1. bill needle says:

    If Vande Velde is Mendoza does that make Ference hockey’s Doug Flynn, someone who made Mendoza look like a star?

  2. G Money says:

    For a lot of reasons, I hope this kid makes it as an Oiler.

    Always delighted in that line from the Red line report: “loves to initiate heavy contact”.

    Got that? He doesn’t like to initiate contact, he loves it.

    And it isn’t just contact. It’s heavy contact.

    Oh yeah.

    If he and Yak2 can both find some third or fourth line NHL chops, I’m just salivating at the thought of the two of them acting as heavy cannon counterpunches to the machine guns that will be blazing on the top two lines.

  3. AsiaOil says:

    The young man should have stayed in school. He looked real good as a freshman and likely would have developed nicely at MT through his 4 years – and would be entering the pro system this summer. Another case where shuffling a guy from NCAA to WHL to AHL in 3 successive seasons was counter-produtive – just like Pitlick. As well as the previous mgmt group handled Nurse – they horribly mis-handled these guys – and the results speak for themselves.

    An engineering degree from MT was probably the better path for this guy rather than full-time hockey – and shame of it is – he could have earned his degree and not be much behind where he is as a hockey prospect right now (which is almost nowhere unfortunately). Like the kid and hope he does well – but man – that was a bad decision.

  4. Gordies Elbow says:

    First professional year is always a challenge, and injuries didn’t help, but JJ brings size, speed and versatility. He and Yakimov have a good shot at the bottom six in the next couple of years.

    Hard to believe that he just turned 21, 4 days ago.

  5. CDK says:

    Hi Lowetide, I was at the Ivan Hlinka memorial tournament last week. I saw 6 games and I think Craig MacTavish was at all six games I watched. I also spotted Scott Howson and I think I saw Frank Musil as well. The hockey was great and most of the games were free to watch. If there is anything you want to know about the tournament feel free to ask.

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    This has probably already been mentioned, but I noticed that The Hockey News has McDavid third in their fantasy rankings with 34G and 49A. I’d guess that’s a bit too high, but I like the enthusiasm.

    Edit: Eberle (28G, 48A) and Hall (37G, 32A) are 15th and 22nd respectively.

  7. LadiesloveSmid says:

    jonrmcleod:
    This has probably already been mentioned, but I noticed that The Hockey News has McDavid third in their fantasy rankings with 34G and 49A. I’d guess that’s a bit too high, but I like the enthusiasm.

    Edit: Eberle (28G, 48A) and Hall (37G, 32A) are 15th and 22nd respectively.

    who will McDavid “Kunitz” in Edmonton?

    Kunitz who had 120P in 126GP in 2013 and 13-14, courtesy of one generational talent.

    Does Eberle become an 80P player? Does Yak explode? Purcell?

  8. G Money says:

    I’m sure everyone’s seen the various video reels of Hall and McDavid at BioSteel camp, but if you haven’t seen the TSN story version it’s worth watching:

    http://www.tsn.ca/hall-mcdavid-take-the-ice-as-teammates-for-the-first-time-1.346972

    The first 28 seconds are mostly a juxtaposition of McDavid and Hall highlights.

    Gave me chills.

  9. G Money says:


    It’s going to be a new world for Hall once camp gets underway this fall as well. Used to attracting the bulk of the attention and serving as the face of the team’s young core since coming into the league, Hall will no longer be in that role. In Edmonton, it’s now McDavid and then everybody else.

    “Yeah, 100 per cent,” said Hall, when asked if he’s prepared for that change. “It hasn’t worked out the last five years. I think we need a much larger supporting cast and we need guys to maybe step out of roles that they’ve been in. That doesn’t mean you’re going to get less points or less playing time, but as long as we have a team that rolls four lines that can play well in any position, that’s going to be a good thing for us.”

    At this point, Hall is just hoping that the team can finally give the fans something to cheer for.

    “It’s going to be chaotic,” said Hall. “There’s always a sense of chaos in Edmonton. They love their hockey there. Good or bad they’re going to come out, but I think they’re going to want to cheer pretty hard now. For us, we have to give them a team that’s going to compete and as long as we do that, I think the support is going to be there in bunches.”

    Just reeking of #TaylorHallCharacterProblems, eh?

  10. Lowetide says:

    He’s a looser!!!

  11. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    G Money,

    Just the two of them walking together gave me chills.

    Anyone have a recipe for a 50 day coma?

  12. dustrock says:

    jonrmcleod:
    This has probably already been mentioned, but I noticed that The Hockey News has McDavid third in their fantasy rankings with 34G and 49A. I’d guess that’s a bit too high, but I like the enthusiasm.

    Edit: Eberle (28G, 48A) and Hall (37G, 32A) are 15th and 22nd respectively.

    Funny thing about the THN McDavid estimate is their “experts” inside the mag all have him from about 55-70, which is much more likely.

  13. dustrock says:

    Loik Leveille confirmed on Twitter he’ll be back with the Oilers in September.

  14. Dominoiler says:

    Ouch, in the running for worst payer in the league (vvd)..

    Surprisingly, this player, which I’m a fan, posts this

    5×5 points per 60: 1.23 (6th among regular forwards)
    5×4 points per 60: 3.55 (6th among regular forwards)
    Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards (third-third line opp)
    Qual Team: 11th best teammates among regular forwards (fourth-line teammates)
    Corsi for % 5×5: 46.3
    Corsi for % Rel 5×5: -6.0
    Zone Start: 61.0%
    Zone Finish: 49.3%
    Shots on goal/percentage: 191/7.3%
    Boxcars: 81GP, 14-19-33

    Compared to VVD

    5×5 points per 60: 1.26 (10th among regular forwards)
    5×4 points per 60: nil
    Qual Comp: 11th toughest among D (fourth line)
    Qual Team: 13th best available among D (fourth line)
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.5%
    Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -8.6
    Zone Start: 50.9%
    Zone Finish: 50.7%
    Shots on goal/percentage: 70 shots/12.9%
    Boxcars: 72GP, 9-6-15

    And, outside of PP production (not including it being partially offset by pk duties from VVD) many of these numbers align.. I guess it was the wording, despite saying you don’t mean to be rude, that I still found it to be both undeserving and rude (honestly)..

    You’re still the best, LT, but I found that line to be below your standard.

  15. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    I’m sure everyone’s seen the various video reels of Hall and McDavid at BioSteel camp, but if you haven’t seen the TSN story version it’s worth watching:

    http://www.tsn.ca/hall-mcdavid-take-the-ice-as-teammates-for-the-first-time-1.346972

    The first 28 seconds are mostly a juxtaposition of McDavid and Hall highlights.

    Gave me chills.

    meh. Gimme Teen Stache any day.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors
    Bakersfield named 12th best minor league market by Sports Business Journal.

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors
    The rankings are based on tenure, attendance, and economics

    Fans in the seats…that’s pretty kewl.

  17. G Money says:

    Pouzar: meh. Gimme Teen Stache any day.

    Um, excuse me.

    Sure, Teen Stache is better than Hall. But not McDavid.

    It’s Bennett that’s better than McDavid. He’s already at a ppg pace, didn’t you know. Of course, that was in the one NHL regular season game he managed to stay healthy for this year. But still. ppg. Can’t deny it.

    Get your Which Flames are Better than Which Oilers Facts straight please.

  18. G Money says:

    I read LT’s post over at OilerNation.

    Then I made the mistake of reading the comment section.

    Then I felt compelled to post a mocking post.

    Now I feel dirty.

    Somebody hug me!

  19. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    I read LT’s post over at OilerNation.

    Then I made the mistake of reading the comment section.

    Then I felt compelled to post a mocking post.

    Now I feel dirty.

    Somebody hug me!

    NEVER go through the drive-thru!

    You know why?

    Because…

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money,

    on that note, I’ve really enjoyed the comment sections a lot more sans he who shall not be named

  21. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Lol… no hug, only have yourself to blame lol.

    Thx for the follow my elephantine friend. Trying to track Rex down in Tweetworld but @rexlibris definitely doesn’t look like him.

    @CtrlPPress if anyone else wants to join the fun (non-hockeyish satire).

  22. Pouzar says:

    G Money: He’s already at a ppg pace, didn’t you know. Of course, that was in the one NHL regular season game

    Gord help us if he gets a couple points in the season opener. Flames fans…context optional.

  23. Cahoon says:

    G Money,

    MacDavid is still a kid and Hall is a man, you can see that when they are walking together at the end of the video. MacDavid is in skinny shape, Hall is built like a Spartan warrior.

  24. spoiler says:

    RexLibris,

    Rex… Dost thou twit?

  25. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    I’m noting your work in my Flames RE, btw.

    For the sake of clarity, I’ve suggested that you believe Bennett will be a more dynamic/impactful scorer at the NHL level than Draisaitl. Would that be a reasonable estimation of your opinion right now?

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar,

    remember Akim Aliu!?

    oh boy

  27. RexLibris says:

    spoiler:
    RexLibris,

    Rex… Dost thou twit?

    I dost, young sir.

    Rex Codex Libris.

    Kind of superfluous, but Rex Libris was taken and I figured I’d double-down on the book part.

    The clip in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9upvWNN3P8

  28. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Pouzar,

    remember Akim Aliu!?

    oh boy

    Only on this blog. Great call!

  29. RexLibris says:

    spoiler,

    Further to our conversation regarding 80s sci fi movies.

    We wrapped it up at around 200 titles. Man we found some gems in there.

    We’re on to 80s Barbarian movies. Breast-optional. Not quite as funny as the sci fi, but still some very entertaining stuff.

  30. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    on that note, I’ve really enjoyed the comment sections a lot more sans he who shall not be named

    SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

    RexLibris: For the sake of clarity, I’ve suggested that you believe Bennett will be a more dynamic/impactful scorer at the NHL level than Draisaitl. Would that be a reasonable estimation of your opinion right now?

    YOU WOULDN’T DARE!!!

    I’m practicing my best political “it was taken out of context” excuse right now.

    spoiler: Thx for the follow my elephantine friend.

    NP! When you sent the link yesterday, I didn’t realize it was you until the follow today, then it clicked. The uptake is clogged but not broken!

  31. G Money says:

    Cahoon,

    This is true. Hall’s looking pretty thick. Entering the point in his career where you can’t overcome his speed with strength anymore. Scary.

    I was a little surprised to see how much taller McDavid looked than Hall though. They’re both listed at 6’1″, but McDavid looked a good three inches taller. Am I hallucinating?

  32. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    Ha. I’ll send you the excerpt before I submit so you can review. I don’t want to put any words in your mouth or misrepresent your work.

    I’m doing the Canucks and Oilers as well this year, so we’ll have some comparison.

  33. spoiler says:

    RexLibris,

    Ooh… so is that any Swords n Sorcery or Swords n Sandals? Where are you drawing the line? lol.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RexLibris,

    since pre draft I’ve thought Bennett will be the best forward from the draft. Wouldn’t be a great complement to RNH at C, though. Now that EDM has McDavid, I’m not so sure. Bennett might’ve been a pretty sweet winger for him.

    definitely support the draft day decision though, and love Drai

  35. G Money says:

    RexLibris: Ha. I’ll send you the excerpt before I submit so you can review. I don’t want to put any words in your mouth or misrepresent your work.

    No worries, I trust ya!

    If I’m going to be objective, I have to live with the objective results, even if I don’ t like ’em.

    Objective is as objective does.

    That *is* an actual saying, right?

  36. RexLibris says:

    spoiler:
    RexLibris,

    Ooh… so is that any Swords n Sorcery or Swords n Sandals?Where are you drawing the line? lol.

    Little of column A, little of column B.

    We’ve gone as far out of scope as Richard Gere’s seductive dance in King David to some soft-core Italian Caligula impressions.

    Of course we’ve covered three of the four Deathstalkers and the three Ators.

    Can’t do Yor or She because it was included in the sci fi challenge, though, so that kind of sucks.

    One of my favourites is out of scope as well, Nymphoid Barbarian in Dinosaur Hell.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fw9a96Ei0k

  37. RexLibris says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I can certainly see that, however, I think fans here would be a bit concerned if we added a smaller winger with some injury history to the lineup over one a large center capable of playing a good possession game.

  38. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    I’ll still send you the excerpt, just to be certain.

    With the gracious blessing of our host here I’ve adopted (and adapted) his alter ego approach and it is working rather well to keep things interesting while moving the narrative along at a healthy pace.

    Not going to lie, it also helps set up some good lines.

  39. spoiler says:

    RexLibris,

    Hmm… Yor wouldve been good… I’m guessing you did Krull in scifi too then?

    There’s a lot of Amazon queen stuff out there but might not fit your rules… or too much of a subgenre unto itself.

  40. RexLibris says:

    spoiler:
    RexLibris,

    Hmm… Yor wouldve been good… I’m guessing you did Krull in scifi too then?

    There’s a lot of Amazon queen stuff out there but might not fit your rules… or too much of a subgenre unto itself.

    Hundra. Red Sonja. Amazons of the Golden Temple. Barbarian Queen. Amazons.

    Yeah, I think we covered at least a dozen or more of that type.

    Basically a producer found a girl he wanted to see topless and then commissioned a “script” to facilitate his desires.

    I’m thinking I might publish our list via twitter – with appropriate links.

  41. Soup Fascist says:

    G Money:
    Cahoon,

    This is true.Hall’s looking pretty thick.Entering the point in his career where you can’t overcome his speed with strength anymore.Scary.

    I was a little surprised to see how much taller McDavid looked than Hall though.They’re both listed at 6’1″, but McDavid looked a good three inches taller.Am I hallucinating?

    Nothing wrong with your eyes. Both are in actuality 6’1″ – however McDavid, as I am sure you know, has the ability to levitate.

  42. Lewis Grant says:

    on that note, I’ve really enjoyed the comment sections a lot more sans he who shall not be named

    Me too.

  43. UnjustEnrichment says:

    G Money:
    I’m sure everyone’s seen the various video reels of Hall and McDavid at BioSteel camp, but if you haven’t seen the TSN story version it’s worth watching:

    http://www.tsn.ca/hall-mcdavid-take-the-ice-as-teammates-for-the-first-time-1.346972

    The first 28 seconds are mostly a juxtaposition of McDavid and Hall highlights.

    Gave me chills.

    What I noticed was that McDavid actually seems pretty tall and solid physically. When not on the ice, McDavid is clearly taller than Hall. I thought they were more or less even in height. When skating, Hall is more upright and seems bigger.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca