RE 15-16 CAM TALBOT: GHOSTBUSTERS!

The Edmonton Oilers needed to add a significant upgrade in goal this summer and had several options. Older vets like Antti Niemi made considerable sense, but Peter Chiarelli chose to go another route: The less proven but overwhelmingly qualified Cam Talbot is the new No. 1. There are no guarantees, but this is a helluva bet.

50GP, 2.40 .920

  1. You’re WAY off! Gah! Remember, we’re looking for reasonable.
  2. He’ll play 60 games! His career high so far is 55GP (AHL), I’ve docked him five games for shell shock.
  3. His save percentages were better in New York. Yes. I think we may see a market correction, but for me Talbot remains a good bet to post average or a little above in year one. Lots of things in play, I’ve aimed for the middle. We’ll see.
  4. This is going to be a much better season isn’t it? Looks like it. Injuries can always impact things and the defense has landmines all over the place, but the goaltending should be better than we’ve seen in a few years.
  5. What did that voodoo goalie whisperer guy say? Woodguy?  Woodguy. Yes. Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers delivered a compelling argument for Talbot as the No. 1 option for Edmonton this summer. He did a helluva job, convinced me and many others that Talbot is more than a decent bet—he’s an outstanding one.
  6. It’s a perfect bet? There are risks, he’s not an established player. That said, if he performs as expected, Edmonton would never be able to get him a year from now in trade. As it is, he’ll cost a pretty penny before July 1, so this season is a big one for all involved. However, giving up second and third-round picks is miles better than a top-10 selection (that was the cost to NJD for Cory Schneider, who Darcy suggests Talbot could turn into—that, or a close facsimile).
  7. You thought Chiarelli was going to have to pay much more than he did. I felt it would be a bigger deal. Quoting this post: Two Oilers picks (this year’s second, No. 33, plus a second next season) AND an inexpensive forward heading to NYC. Oilers get Talbot, plus Miller or Klein.
  8. And the actual deal? Talbot and No. 209 for No. 57, No. 79 and No. 184.
  9. Chiarelli did better than you expected. By a lot. He gave up a second and a third, I projected No. 33, basically a late first, plus next year’s second and that’s probably in the top 40 overall. Helluva deal by the Oilers GM, I was impressed.
  10. Do you really think he plays in only 50 games? It’s a lot to expect him to pump out 60 games at .925 SP, so I’m hedging the bet. Predicting goalies is a crazy thing to do anyway.
  11. Have you ever been right on one of these goalie bets? Oh yeah, for sure. Devan Dubnyk 12-13 was close but these last couple of seasons have knocked me on my ass in regard to the goaltenders. Crazy crazy.
  12. Tell me about Cam Talbot. Well, he’s a big goalie who appears to have found the one thing that separates starting NHL goalies from backups, also-rans and never-weres.
  13. What is that? Consistency. Since he turned pro, Talbot’s numbers have been (by year) .902, .913, .918 (all AHL, no we hit the big leagues) .941 and .926. He’s learned how to post good numbers and in fact the SP total spiked when he hit the NHL.
  14. What does that mean for the Oilers? Look, this is all a thin damn line. If Talbot sees 1000 shots this season and stops 925 of them, he might be the team’s MVP (remember, we haven’t had a goalie with a .925 SP since, well, ever. I don’t recall one). If he stops 910 of those 1000 shots, he’s making $2.5 million somewhere as a backup. The beauty of Talbot, and Darcy did an excellent job showing it, is that he is BOTH proven (although not yet getting paid) AND unproven (he hasn’t played 60 games in a season), making him a stellar bet to stop 920 out of 1000 instead of 900. That’s a tremendous item. Talbot could be a very rich man by this time next year, I think he will be. It’s those 20 saves out of 1000 that wil decide his fate.
  15. Wildly unfair? Oh yes, I think it is. Ask Craig MacTavish if he’d like to have Devan Dubnyk back, or if he’d like to use different words at the press conference. Anywho, Talbot will own this town like no goalie since Roloson.
  16. Do they make the playoffs? We haven’t reached the end of the RE series yet, so my numbers aren’t final. That said, my GF-GA numbers for the Oilers suggest a massive improvement.
  17. How much? I don’t want to give it all away today, but the Oilers were -85 one year ago and claw it all back. The question comes in how close can they get to last year’s No. 8 team in the west, and that I’m not going to tell you until later in the week.
  18. Thursday? Yes. We have two more goalies to go.
  19. Scrivens and Brossoit? We’ve already done Brossoit.
  20. Last year’s No. 8 team had a good goal differential? Calgary Flames, +25.
  21. How many goals do you project for the Oilers this coming season? 230, it’s all here. You have to factor in empty-net goals, so it’ll be an interesting week with only the backups to go.
  22. Is it close? You’ll have to tune in tomorrow.
  23. Asshat! Look, the numbers are done and the math is very interesting. Beyond that, do you have any other questions.
  24. Is it difficult walking around being a dink all day? You get used to it.
  25. Oh, and by the way: This is NOT a punk or new wave song. Right. However, Talbot’s association with the Ghostbusters series in his masks made the choice obvious.
  26. If you could have chosen a new wave song, what would it have been? Until my daughter told me about the Ghostbusters connection, the plan was this one.
  27. Why that song? Tabot is the Oilers sonic reducer. “Then I’ll be ten feet tall, then you’ll be nothing at all
    Sonic reducer, ain’t no loser!” By the way, Cheetah Chrome is 60. Lordy.

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99 Responses to "RE 15-16 CAM TALBOT: GHOSTBUSTERS!"

  1. oliveoilers says:

    This is the kind of bet MacT SHOULD have made.

    Talbot just has to be average to win this bet

    Well, off to Pipestone Creek. Dinosaurs, or, Ra Ra’s, as my boys call them!

    Just a note on the Erhoff thingy: There’s a reason that he could only find a deal late and for such short term and little money.

    I wonder if the word on his concussion is a little worse than previously thought….

    I don’t mind missing out on him if only to see how Lombardi gets under the cap.

  2. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers,

    This is the kind of bet MacT SHOULD have made.

    To be fair to MacT I heard from two different places he was trying to trade for Talbot mid-season last year but the deal fell apart when Lunqvist got hurt.

    Chia got him much cheaper than the deal MacT had on the table (if my info is correct)

  3. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    oliveoilers,

    On the Erhoff front, I suspect that his preference was to take a contract with a team that could provide him some shelter. Edmonton wasn’t going to offer the kind of money or term required to justify taking a risk on under performing in a non sheltered role, not to mention the likelihood of further eroding his health by putting himself in that situation.

    Long story short, I don’t think we were in the running. That LA deal makes so much sense for him, and it should be great for LA too.

  4. Hammers says:

    If Talbot has the record your showing .920 we will be fighting for a playoff spot .

  5. sliderule says:

    If I am reading right you are looking at a GA of about 2.5 and a GF of about 2.8.

    This would give the oil a positive goal differential of around 25 goals

    Playoff’s baby!

  6. Hammers says:

    Forgot to mention you also predict 37 more goals scored and think that’s low . Probably closer to 60 more goals , McDavid and Hall both around 40 each for me .

  7. G Money says:

    I’m working on a simple mathematical projection to predict standings next year via predicting goal differential.

    Basically: for both EV and PP/PK, use regression to predict shot rates for and against, then use regression to the meat (which is basically predicting based on a low correlation!) on sh% and sv% to get goal projections.

    Tweak the results based on expected improvements (e.g. tweak sv% based on goalie improvements, tweak shot rates based on coaching or roster changes).

    Across the league, EV is 77% of goals, so balance the EV vs special teams predicted goal totals accordingly.

    Out pops the prediction. At least that’s what supposed to happen.

    The NerdAlert crowdsourced prediction survey I did a few weeks back came out with a prediction of just a little over breakeven (from -85 to about +7).

    Looks like LT is optimistically predicting higher than that.

    Will be interesting to see what pops out of the simple math model.

  8. Woodguy says:

    .920

    I honestly thought you were going to have him a .919 because it looks so much more reasonable than .920 but really doesn’t change much (less than 2 goals)

    I have him as a .918 next year.

    57 games played (exact same as Scrivens)

    .925 5v5 (was .933 last year)
    .875 4v5 (was .886 last year)

    1225 5v5 SA (Scrivens 1258 SA last year)
    200 4v5 SA (Scrivens 205 SA last year)

    92 5v5 GA (Scrivens 126 GA last year)
    25 4v5 GA (Scrivens 31 GA last year)

    1308 total saves on 1425 total shots = .91789 = .918

    I have him playing exactly the same number of games as Scrivens did last year.

    If Talbot hits my reasonable targets and I’m close on the SA then the Oilers will be 40 goals better just on Talbot’s 57 gp.

    I think I *might* be undershooting his SV% too just to take a bit of wind out of the sails.

    So you (LT) have them scoring 37 more goals.

    + 40 less against in 57gp for Talbot.

    That’s 77 goals better so far………

  9. PhrankLee says:

    I’m thrilled with this acquisition. I thought with his stellar play and the lengthening of Lunqvist teeth he would be impossible to pry away from NYR.

    It is a very impressive deal by Chia.

    Now this talk of threatening for playoff spot is crazy, imho.

    I would be more than pleased if we threatened .500

    This is a reasonable expectations post, after all.

  10. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    It’s shocking to think that modestly above-average goaltending for just 57 games would result in a 40 goal improvement.

    Even after doing all that work on goalies for the last few months, I’m still shocked every time I’m reminded of how bad it was last year.

  11. Ducey says:

    PhrankLee:
    I’m thrilled with this acquisition.I thought with his stellar play and the lengthening of Lunqvist teeth he would be impossible to pry away from NYR.

    It is a very impressive deal by Chia.

    Now this talk of threatening for playoff spot is crazy, imho.

    I would be more than pleased if we threatened .500

    This is a reasonable expectations post, after all.

    Agreed.

    The Oilers were 13th in the West last year. They were -85 and 27 points back of 12th place San Jose. San Jose was -4. The Oilers were 37 points out of the playoffs.

    The Oilers could knock 75 goals off their goal differential and still wind up in 13th place! They are starting a long ways back.

    Plus, I look at the standings, and there are few weak sisters. Calgary may decline, but not much (thanks Sweeney), and Vancouver looks they took a step back, but they finished with a 101 pts last year. The Oilers had 62.

    I will go with a record of 35-35-12 and an 11th place finish in the West. EDM climbs over San Jose and COL, but that’s it. That’s still a very successful season. They can’t make up everything in one year.

    Man. TOR is going to be some kind of pissed when we win the lottery again.

  12. zatch says:

    I’d be fine with Edmonton finishing somewhere like 10th in the west. It would show genuine progress, we’d go into next year with NN and Purcell off the books, and we’d have either a decent trade chip (figuring draft slot of 8-10th) in that 1st rounder/ a shot at the new and improved anti-Oilers lottery that suddenly benefits the Oilers/ One more A- prospect in the McDavid cluster, which won’t hurt. Year after though, Playoffs need to happen.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    IMO the key to goal differential is going to come down to how committed our Starboard crew is to defense. Last year teams consistently attacked Eberle, Purcell, and Yakupov and discoved limited backchecking only to find Shultz and Fayne had giving up the line.

    That time and space has to be addressed

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    sliderule:
    If I am reading right you are looking at a GA of about 2.5 and a GF of about 2.8.

    This would give the oila positive goal differential of around 25 goals

    Playoff’s baby!

    Lowetide guarantees playoffs, baby!!!

    You heard it here! If it isn’t the case you know where to direct your complaints!

  15. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    oliveoilers,

    This is the kind of bet MacT SHOULD have made.

    To be fair to MacT I heard from two different places he was trying to trade for Talbot mid-season last year but the deal fell apart when Lunqvist got hurt.

    Chia got him much cheaper than the deal MacT had on the table (if my info is correct)

    Sather staed the trade to edmonton was a favour to (old group).

    Woodguy:
    .920

    I honestly thought you were going to have him a .919 because it looks so much more reasonable than .920 but really doesn’t change much (less than 2 goals)

    I have him as a .918 next year.

    57 games played (exact same as Scrivens)

    .925 5v5 (was .933 last year)
    .875 4v5 (was .886 last year)

    1225 5v5 SA (Scrivens 1258 SA last year)
    200 4v5 SA (Scrivens 205 SA last year)

    92 5v5 GA (Scrivens 126 GA last year)
    25 4v5 GA (Scrivens 31 GA last year)

    1308 total saves on 1425 total shots = .91789 = .918

    I have him playing exactly the same number of games as Scrivens did last year.

    If Talbot hits my reasonable targets and I’m close on the SA then the Oilers will be 40 goals better just on Talbot’s 57 gp.

    I think I *might* be undershooting his SV% too just to take a bit of wind out of the sails.

    So you (LT) have them scoring 37 more goals.

    + 40 less against in 57gp for Talbot.

    That’s 77 goals better so far………

    There were 120 sets of golaie data for 700+ min played.
    THE medians:
    LSC SV% .9738
    MSC SV% .9241
    HSC SV% .8338
    Talbot had the
    11th best .8687
    20 th best .8617
    was the only goalie to be top 20 and better than .8600 in last 2 seasons.

    Griess was top 30 in last 2 and better than .8550.

    Price was top 40 last 2 seasons and better than .8450.

    though the best goalie in the game at HSCA is
    11-12 .8663
    12-13 .8672
    13-14 .8095 coached by Eakins
    14-14.8648

    D. Dubnyk!

  16. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    It’s shocking to think that modestly above-average goaltending for just 57 games would result in a 40 goal improvement.

    Even after doing all that work on goalies for the last few months, I’m still shocked every time I’m reminded of how bad it was last year.

    Its ridiculous.

    Show the impact of goalies in a big, big way.

    If you straight-lines Talbot’s numbers (using my SA projection….which are probably too high) from last year he’s 53 goals better than Scrivens(!!)

    I thought “nope” and started to adjust.

    Also,

    No thread about Talbot is complete without linking to your and WheatNOil’s work on it too:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/oiler-goaltending-its-more-the-goalies-than-the-defense/

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/more-blogs-about-goalies-and-food/

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/goalies-are-not-voodoo-if-they-make-it-to-60-or-so-nhl-games/

    The last one is mind blowing.

  17. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Griess was top 30 in last 2 and better than .8550.

    Its funny, Griess has popped in and out of the top for a few years.

    At 29 I’m not sure he’ll get a chance to be a starter, but it was a good signing by PIT and a good signing by NYI this year.

    Halak’s injuries are piling up as he ages. Greiss might have a chance to take a job there this year.

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    77 goals better from -85. Colorado was -8 with 90 points, Columbus -14 with 89 points. ~90 points would be great.

    NYI went from -42 in 2014 to +22 this past season. +64 in adding Halak, Boychuk, Leddy, Strome (full-time), Lee (full-time), and non phenomenal results from Grabo/Kulemin.

  19. rickithebear says:

    Fayne
    NJD 1st 10.71 HSCA/60 4years
    EDM 1st 17.16

    Nikitin
    CBJ 2nd 12.40
    EDM 1st 15.80

    N. schultz
    MIN/CBJ 14.10 HACA/60
    EDM 17.27
    PHI 17.76

    M. Greene
    EDM 16.60
    LAK 12.81

    Petry
    EDm 17.10
    MTL 15.72

    Visnovsky
    LAk 15.72
    EDM 17.10
    ANA 16.38
    NYI 15.35

    Whitney
    PIT 15.93
    ANA 13.72
    EDM 18.38

    Larsen
    DAL 13.58
    EDM 15.95

    Sekera
    Buf (Ruff) 13.92
    BUF (Rolston) 18.66
    CAR 17.60
    LAK 11.41

    Erhoff
    SJS Wilson 9.59
    SJS Tmac 11.79
    VCR 13.34
    Buf Ruff 15.47
    Buff Rolston 17.00
    Buf Nolan 17.48
    Pit 14.42

    Franson
    NSH Trotz14.38
    TOR Wilson 18.03
    TOR Carlyle 17.61
    TOR Horacek 20.75
    NSH Laviolette 11.70

    Tmac runs a system that gets good HSCA results from the d.

    The oilers systems of the past were ineffective.

  20. Jordan says:

    Every time I read these numbers & projections, I can’t help but think:

    “Man, this is incredible. With McDavid here, and the other improvements… this could be really good.

    Oh, wait – this is the Oilers. McDavid will end up with the standard season ending shoulder injury that so many Oilers has in their first year. We hoped for the best…”

  21. TheOtherJohn says:

    We had earth shatteringly shitty goaltending last year. And any team with really bad goaltending tends to begin to expect/fear a soft goal. Tends to sap a teams determination.Our goalies delievered on soft goals in spades.

    Would have been happy with a trade for any one of Bernier, Lack or Talbot whoever comes cheapest. Talbot is relatively old to be getting his first shot at a starting job but there are a decent number of quality goalies that figure out how to be a consistent starter late. Think Roli or Kiprusoff.

    Dellow wrote easiest way to make quick improvement for a team was to improve its goaltending. Talbot will be very hard pressed not to be a real improvement on last years goaltending

  22. book¡je says:

    If Talbot hits .920 McLellen will be a great coach.

    If Talbot fails spectacularly (ALA all other recent Oiler goalies) and posts a .891 then McLellen will be a terrible coach.

  23. Jordan says:

    book¡je:
    If Talbot hits .920 McLellen will be a great coach.

    If Talbot fails spectacularly (ALA all other recent Oiler goalies) and posts a .891 then McLellen will be a terrible coach.

    So, what you’re saying is that Dubnyk’s 2013/14 season and Scriven’s 2014/15 season got Dallas Eakins fired for making him look like a bad coach?

  24. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    LT…do you really follow Scarlette on Twitter?

    Long time reader and listener in Kimberley, BC

  25. Lowetide says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    LT…do you really follow Scarlette on Twitter?

    Long time reader and listener in Kimberley, BC

    No. That would be weird. Honestly.

  26. Showerhead says:

    LT, the sheer volume of engaging work you write during the summer months is astounding to me. Thank you for making the off-season a legitimately interesting time of year for us.

    I’ve been away from the keyboard more than I’d like as I am in the middle of a career change but I knew I would have to chime in when you got around to Edmonton’s goaltending.

    We are all predicting a substantial swing in goal differential for the 2015/2016 Oilers. A phenom is born, the core matures, and an ever so slightly less porous defense means the puck will spend a few more shifts in the right end of the ice each game. Anticipation builds.

    Woodguy and AsiaOil went back and forth about Talbot earlier this summer. GMoney wrote a lot of great stuff too and when all was said and done my mind settled basically where you have done so in this piece, LT: Cam Talbot is a very good bet to be a good goaltender.

    And yet it all still seems like witchcraft. How do you go about pegging down an estimated save percentage? Sure, we have Talbot’s own track record to go buy but we all admit that as good as that track record is, there isn’t all that much of it. Not only that but even if you accept the optimist’s argument that almost every goaltender with Talbot’s track record in the past has turned out to be very good in the long run, how could you ever guess at what one specific year in that progress would look like?

    For the most part, we accept that defense has very little effect on save percentage. This is what the best guesses of our best writers have tended to say. And yet something about Edmonton has in fact been a black hole for goaltenders in the last few years. Was that Chabot? Was it luck? Was it MacTavish’s press conferences or Dubnyk’s pads or the price of oil or the ghost of Marc Andre Bergeron haunting the crease at Rexall and taunting Edmonton’s goaltenders with incantations about Andrew Ladd? One way or another, it’s been atrocious for long enough for a guy to ask questions no matter how rational he normally likes to be.

    After all of this (I suspect less ghost whispering was done in your post than my comment) you come up with .920 which would be a marked improvement over anything we have seen in a long long time. We rejoice because we mostly believe that this marked improvement is a reasonable expectation – a possibility within the realm of what we know at this time.

    And then we look at goal differential and we’re still barely a bubble team.

    It’s going to be thrilling as all hell but this season, perhaps the most memorable we get to see since Chris Fucking Pronger patrolled Rexall’s blue paint, could still go all sorts of different ways.

    I hope everyone has had a great summer, folks. A wild and wonderful season starts in just a few weeks.

  27. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – That was a good series or articles for sure. The money quote is: “Cam Talbot was the real deal, but the high incidence of volatility and ‘dips’ also suggested that for him to have a bad (Scrivens – or Dubnyk-like) year next year would not be a surprise.”

    – Talbot was a decent bet, but far from certain, and the back-up you are hoping he rebounds. Hardly a G tandem that you hang your hat on, thinking: “we are good to go”. Lots of risk

    – The downside for this team is another bad G tandem, and a D that is too young and too old

    – Just score lots, and McD

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Question for the group:

    What happens if Talbot has a disastrous year? This isn’t a prediction, I’m simply asking.

    Watching us play good to great hockey in October, only to lose 5-2… I’m not sure I can handle any more of that.

  29. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Cash – See just above!… RE of .920 seems high and hopeful. Cartwheels if Talbot is .920, which is a different version of RE that I’ve come to expect.

  30. Woogie63 says:

    We are betting on a back up goalie AGAIN.

    Why can’t we get a proven NHL goalie?

  31. Bar_Qu says:

    Ducey,

    This is the position I was arguing on the weekend. The goal differential seems to back up what I was thinking in terms of the Oil being able to catch and pass Arizona and SJ, but the battle for playoffs will be determined by the pace that Calgary and Vancouver set (imo, LA & Ana are already in the division lead).

    Rex was arguing the likelihood of Calgary regressing in shot % & goals scored, even with their improvement on defense. I am of the opinion that the defense & goaltending will keep their ship afloat even if there is poorer than expected goal scoring.

    It will be a fun season, and great BoA contests, worth going to each and every one.

  32. Jordan says:

    Woogie63:
    We are betting on a back up goalie AGAIN.

    Why can’t we get a proven NHL goalie?

    Because we spend the goalie money on Nikki & Andrew.

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Question for the group:

    What happens if Talbot has a disastrous year?This isn’t a prediction, I’m simply asking.

    Then you look at Scrivens, Brossoit & Nilsson and see if one of them can do more than you expected, while working the phones to see if you can get someone else.

  33. Derek says:

    LT I’m amazed that you’re still putting out two, high quality posts per day on the date of August 24th. Thank you good sir.

    My irrational hope is that we see the one year “dip” in Talbots numbers this year as predicted by G Moneys model followed by a value contract this offseason and 4 or 5 years of extremely cheap elite goaltending. Basically the anti-“because oilers”.

    I feel that Talbot and Bernier where the two best bets, Talbot being much cheaper of the two and I’m quite pleased that Chiarelli was able to secure him for the assets given up.

    I cannot believe it, with all that this organization has put its fanbase through since 2006, but I am legitimately excited for Oilers hockey again.

    Also this is the best RE song you’ve ever used, I hope they play it at Rexall during a stoppage in play caused by a Talbot highlight reel save more than once this season.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    he’s been excellent in a backup role, so I’d assume you still re sign him to a deal cheaper than expected. Hope that Scrivens bounces back or Nilsson is any good. Then do the same thing next summer. Not sure where it leaves Brossoit though.

    TB took a bet on Bishop and it worked. CBJ took a bet on Bob and it worked. PHI took a bet on Mason and it’s working. Varlamov, Dubnyk, etc. Guys with warts or unproven guys. Didn’t work for Scrivens or Fasth. Talbot is as good a bet as there is.

  35. Pouzar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Question for the group:

    What happens if Talbot has a disastrous year?This isn’t a prediction, I’m simply asking.

    Watching us play good to great hockey in October, only to lose 5-2… I’m not sure I can handle any more of that.

    We still have McDavid (woot) and a bunch of $$ comes off the books.

  36. rickithebear says:

    Woogie63:
    IMOthe key to goal differential is going to come down to how committed our Starboard crew is to defense.Last year teams consistently attacked Eberle, Purcell, and Yakupov anddiscoved limited backcheckingonly to find Shultz and Fayne had giving up the line.

    That time and space has to be addressed

    Eberle 81GM -16
    35gm Eakins .571 PPG-14
    first 32gm Nelson .938 PPG -7
    Last 14gm .929 PPG +5

    Purcell 82gm -33
    35gm Eakins .486 PPG -18
    first 32gm Nelson .344 PPG -12
    Last 14gm .429 PPG -3

    Yakupov
    36gm Eakins .222 PPG -18
    first 31gm Nelson .516 PPG -16
    last 14gm .643 PPG -1

    RNH
    34gm Eakins .676 PPG -6
    28gm Nelson .571 PPG -6
    Last 14gm nelson 1.21 PPG Even

    Hall
    First 11gm Eakins .909 PPG +4
    injury
    Last 19 Gm Eakins .579 PPG -11
    First 12gm Nelson .750 PPG +1
    injury
    Last 11gm Nelson .728 PPG +5

    Pouliot
    30gm Eakins .700 PPG -7
    12gm Nelson .750 PPG +1
    Last 11gm .727 PPG +5

    J. Schultz
    35gm Eakins .429 PPG -9
    32gm Nelson .313 PPG -10
    Last 14gm .429 PPG +2

    Klefbom
    14gm Eakins .071 PPG -11
    first 10 under Nelson .100 PPG Even
    Next 22 nelson .500 PPG -10
    Last 14 Nelson .500 PPG Even

    Nikitin
    First 8gm Eakins .375 PPG +2
    injury
    Last 14gm Eakins .142 PPG -8
    Injury
    First 12gm Nelson .250 PPG -3
    injury
    Last 8gm Nelson .250 PPG -3

    Fayne
    36gm Eakins .139 PPg -9
    24gm Nelson .083 PPG -11
    Last 15gm .067 PPG -1

    Petry
    35gm Eakins .229 PPG -20
    24gm Nelson .292 PPG -5
    19gm MTL .368 PPG -3

  37. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    No, I get that, I think it’s the right call. The idea of “go get a proven guy” ignores the fact that “proven” and “good” are not interchangeable necessarily. Everyone who is available has warts, it’s a question of picking the best of what’s there. In other words, Montreal doesn’t have Mr. Price on the block.

    I just mean, if we open the season with a game in which we outshoot the opposition by 12 and lose by 3, I might cry.

    Actually, no. We start on the road against the Blues, so if we outshoot them, even if we lose by 10, I’ll be happy.

  38. Soup Fascist says:

    Woogie63: We are betting on a back up goalie AGAIN.Why can’t we get a proven NHL goalie?

    Who did you want? Antti Niemi, Karri Ramo? Ryan Miller? Cam Ward?

    No one is trading a great, proven goaltender in their prime unless there is a huge overpay. Assuming very few teams are moving a top 10 / 15 NHL goaltender, you have a few choices:

    1. Settle on a veteran bottom 3rd in the league goaltender who is unlikely to improve.

    2. Sign an aging Former top 10 goaltender in decline (Hello Cam Ward)

    3. Develop your own goaltender (the Oilers have not been particularly adept in this regard).

    4. Pluck a backup from a team who already has an established star goaltender and give him a chance to flourish.

    Talbot is not a slam dunk – agreed, but you kind of need to pick your poison when it comes to obtaining a goaltender.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Derek: LT I’m amazed that you’re still putting out two, high quality posts per day on the date of August 24th. Thank you good sir.

    No kidding. I’m struggling to put out one middling post every two days, and in August it’s a real struggle. LT is a freaking machine.

  40. wheatnoil says:

    The problem with “proven” guys is that that even goalies with a long history of being a #1 have huge variance in their save percentage year to year. Year to year you have Price, Lundqvist, Rask… and then mush.

    If you can get a goalie with a good chance of being in the ‘mush’, that’s basically all you can do… well that and have a back-up with who also has a good chance of being in there.

    To add to the reading list that Woodguy put out above (thanks for the shout out Woodguy), I really think this link is essential reading for the goalie debate.

    Great article and well written.

    Edit: I think I found out the problem G Money and I were having linking to the Blue Shirt Banter article. I think the url was too long and that was causing problems. I converted it to a tinyurl, wondering if that would fix it and it seems to done so for now. However, there does seem to a be problem linking to sites with really long urls.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Plus, I look at the standings, and there are few weak sisters. Calgary may decline, but not much (thanks Sweeney), and Vancouver looks they took a step back, but they finished with a 101 pts last year. The Oilers had 62.

    I think CAL will decline more than a little.

    They had a perfect storm last year. Hot goaltending when they couldn’t score and Dmen shooting 20% when they couldn’t buy a save.

    I can see them being as low -15 Goal Diff or so if they get the shitty side of luck, even Goal Diff if they have *normal* luck. They were +25 last year with a 1010 PDO (5th highest in the NHL)

    Also,

    Van traded their best goalie in Lack.

    Lack had a .921 and Miller had a .911 last year.

    That’s about another 12 GA if everything holds and Miller plays as much as Lack did last year.

    Markstrom has been amazing the AHL, but hasn’t been able to put it together in the NHL, so we’ll see there, but I wouldn’t bet on over .910

    They lost Bonino for Sutter (down grade in offence) , Bieksa (*spits*). Traded Kassian (*spits*) for an older and less effective version in Prust.

    Basically they are down to 35 year old Sedins, Vrbata and a young Horvat up front and Edler, Hamhuis and Tanev in the back.

    A couple of key injuries and under-performing goalies can drop their goal diff to the negatives too as they were only +20 last year.

  42. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    So, if we assume the central division takes both wild card playoff spots (not unreasonably) then the Oil need to do better than all of the Pacific except for LA & Ana to make the playoffs. Which seems like a steep hill to climb if we are expecting them to have a 100+ goal differential swing. I don’t dispute the decline in teams like Van, but I am not at all certain they will be 10-15 pts worse at the end of the season. While the moves they made were questionable, I don’t they are crippling, at least for this season (they could fall right off the edge of the world in 2016-17 tho).

  43. TheOrangeDesk says:

    One thing we have to remember is as the Oilers get better that is less points given away to teams we are trying to catch. Calgary, and Vancouver (even Arizona, yikes) won all of their games against EDM last year. trying to catch them is much less daunting when some of those points swing our way.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    So, if we assume the central division takes both wild card playoff spots (not unreasonably) then the Oil need to do better than all of the Pacific except for LA & Ana to make the playoffs. Which seems like a steep hill to climb if we are expecting them to have a 100+ goal differential swing. I don’t dispute the decline in teams like Van, but I am not at all certain they will be 10-15 pts worse at the end of the season. While the moves they made were questionable, I don’t they are crippling, at least for this season (they could fall right off the edge of the world in 2016-17 tho).

    Don’t underestimate what losing Lack will do to them.

    Lack last two years – .912, .921
    Miller last two years – .903, . 911 and he turned 35 a month ago.

    If Markstrom plays well they’re in the mix, if not, they’re not.

    You’re right that the Central division will send 5 teams to the playoffs (top 3 and both wild cards) and the Pacific will send 3. (top 3 only)

    ANA and LAK are probable locks.

    Here’s my guess on how it plays out:

    EDM
    CAL
    SJS (had a -4 Goal Diff last year)

    VAN

    ARI

    With EDM, CAL, SJS all within 5 points of each other.

    VAN a bit behind

    Let’s all also remember that ANA only had a +10 Goal Diff and LAK had a +15 and missed.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ghostbusters theme. Now there’s a song with a contentious history.

    http://mentalfloss.com/article/53452/was-ghostbusters-theme-stolen-huey-lewis

    It would be great if we get the ‘multi-platinum’ Huey Lewis-esque career out of Talbot as opposed to the ‘one hit wonder’ Ray Parker Jr career. 50GPs sounds about right to me. Predominantly cos I’m expecting a big bounce back year from Scrivens as well and am hopeful to see some healthy competition between the two tenders. Looking forward to reading Ben’s RE.

    Strange but true fact: Huey Lewis played harmonica on Thin Lizzy’s Live and Dangerous.

  46. G Money says:

    There’s a funny table being circulated by twats (er on Twitter, or whatever) that shows the ‘Corsi Boost’ from Buffalo. Just by playing Buffalo, most teams saw between a +0.3 to a full percentage point increase in their Corsis. The more you played them, the bigger the boost.

    The value in looking at that to my mind is that the Sabres were so historically bad last year, that looking at team Corsi sans Buffalo will probably give you a better picture of any given team than including Buffalo.

    I bring this up because one of the Western Conference oddities from last year is the “Arizona Effect”.

    The Coyotes of course were a staggeringly bad team overall – but their record against two specific teams was particularly bizarre.

    If you look at the Coyotes shot differential, you’ll see they were significantly outshot overall, well in keeping with their record. And generally, that was true at the team level as well. For example, they were out shot 74-111 (40%) against STL – and went 0 and 3, as you’d expect from that kind of delta.

    Conversely, they were 152-185 (45%) and a reasonable 2-3 against VAN (perfectly in line might have been more like 1-3-1).

    But two teams, as I mentioned, stand out.

    With the Oilers, the shot differential was 148-147 (basically, a dead heat between two shitty teams).

    With the Flames, the shot differential was 130-135 (basically, a 1% advantage to the less shitty of two shitty teams).

    And yet.

    The Oilers were 0-5 against Arizona. The Flames were 5-0 against Arizona.

    Just such a goddamn strange year.

  47. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Bar_Qu,

    Vancouver is at huge risk of having their season sewered by goaltending.

    Miller is 35 and at that age, goalies are ticking time-bomb of implosion.

    Markstrom has a smaller NHL sample size than Talbot (and has done much worse during his time in the NHL), so you’re hoping he can turn it around.

    Lack was easily the best bet going forward and they gave him away for pennies for… reasons?

    Vancouver is my number one bet for having an unintentional tank season.

  48. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Fun side note: I always mix up Huey Lewis and the News with Bruce Hornsby and the Range. No idea why.

    That’s just the way it is.

  49. Lowetide says:

    “The News” or at least some of the band that would back up Huey Lewis, were a band named Clover at one point. They backed up Elvis Costello on his brilliant debut album. Extremely tasteful playing on that record.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Shower Bruce: Thanks for the kind words, I always look forward to this week. The RE is almost done and I kind of know how it turns out but don’t balance the ledger until now. I probably wouldn’t finish it if I knew from the beginning. 🙂

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    “The News” or at least some of the band that would back up Huey Lewis, were a band named Clover at one point. They backed up Elvis Costello on his brilliant debut album. Extremely tasteful playing on that record.

    Good call LT. That’s how Huey came to be playing on a Thin Lizzy live record. Clover were one of the support bands on that tour.

    Btw, do we have a True Detective fans in da house? Loved the first season but debating on whether to watch the second. Critics have not been kind.

  52. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Lowetide: “The News”

    Very good band. I loved the SRV inspired guitar solo on that one hit.

  53. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Bag of Pucks: Critics have not been kind.

    Screw them. If you’re expecting more Woody and Matthew, you’re gonna have a bad time. I think this second season was well done, but I’m kind of a sucker for political corruption story lines.

  54. ASkoreyko says:

    Woogie63,

    Who do you propose the Oilers acquire instead of Talbot? It is fine to complain about the current situation but not when you don’t provide your own solution or even an analysis of current situation. How many proven starters were traded in the last year? Which of the other positions to do you rob from to provide this proven starter?

    All proven starters began as question marks. The mark of a smart management team is to manage the risk and make smart bets. As has been proven above, I think Chia made the right choice with Talbot. Also as LT has stated before, the real mistake was not adjusting last year when things went off the rails, hopefully Chia will be more proactive.

    Although in all honesty, I have a hard time getting too upset about anything that happened BM (before McDavid) as without all of those tumbler clicks we would not still be randomly screaming ‘McDAVID!!!!!!’

  55. Lowetide says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: Screw them. If you’re expecting more Woody and Matthew, you’re gonna have a bad time. I think this second season was well done, but I’m kind of a sucker for political corruption story lines.

    Good LORD you live in the right era.

  56. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    ASkoreyko,

    Who should they have acquired to play goal instead of Talbot?

    OEL. Obviously.

  57. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Lowetide: Good LORD you live in the right era.

    I should say, that I’m having some trouble determining reality from fiction these days. I really hope that was True Detective I watched!

  58. Kraz says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 55m55 minutes ago Edmonton, Alberta
    Here are 4 lines I would like to see in pre-season: Hall-McDavid-Purcell, Draisaitl-RNH-Eberle, Pouliot-Lander-Yakupov, Hendricks-Letestu-Korpikoski

    Interesting. Possibly 3 legit scoring lines. Pouliot would be back in his role in New York, that line would kill the softs.

  59. Hammers says:

    Funny what we can dream off and then accept . I see Talbot at least 920 maybe 930 and Scrivens with a big bounce back and a 915 . Dreaming, maybe but there is one thing we don’t discuss Mitch and that is a group of coaches that worked together for a few years. We will more defensively aware as a team especially our forwards . Good coaching helps and these 3 should bring a cohesive team outlook .we wait and prey

  60. Pouzar says:

    Sidebar Hijack:

    @NYCOIL

    What do you think about FCX as a pure commodities play going forward(copper, gold and now Oil)?
    They have their issues (i.e. debt) but it sure seems they are getting killed due to the commodities crash. I said in ’09 if they ever got this low again I would jump in. Thoughts?

  61. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    Yup, goal differential is not the be all end all for predicting how a season turns out, but it certainly helps to have a positive one.

    wheatnoil,

    The performance of Markstrom will certainly go a long way to determining how well the Canucks do this year. I cannot count on him sewering the season, so my reasonable expectation is similar goaltending to last year (but a guy can hope).

  62. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu,

    I think that goal diff is a key stat.

    ANA is weird in that they win way more than their share of one goal games, have for 3 years and just won’t regress.

    Most teams that pull that off have top end goaltending, but they’re usually not even top 10 in 5v5 SV%.

  63. ASkoreyko says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    If only Chia wasn’t so inept he could solve ALL of our problems with a single trade!

  64. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Sidebar Hijack:

    @NYCOIL

    What do you think about FCX as a pure commodities play going forward(copper, gold and now Oil)?
    They have their issues (i.e. debt) but it sure seems they are getting killed due to the commodities crash. I said in ’09 if they ever got this low again I would jump in. Thoughts?

    Best investment decision of my life was going heavy into commodities and miners after the great recession crash.

    My tips would be:

    -don’t try to guess bottom. It’s way better to get in late than too early. Stock prices usually lag the commodity price and no one knows the bottom until it’s in the rearview mirror.

    -look for companies that are under priced vis a vi their assets. I bought a pile of Teck cominco when they had more cash on hand than their market cap (!). Their liabilities were not near enough to warrant the discount on the price.

    I’m looking hard at coal companies right now.

    George Soros, who was a major player in supporting Obama’s climate change policy of moving away from coal based energy just bought into 2 US coal companies which is raising a lot of eyebrows.

    Coal is priced like its extinct but it is still needed to produce a majority majority the world’s energy.

    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/George-Soros-energy-coal-shares/2015/08/18/id/670705/

    Maybe I’m biased because I made a pile on coal via Teck before but it, along with most commodities are very cheap right now via supply and demand (except oil I’m avoiding oil for a while there’s just too much supply)

  65. G Money says:

    For those who care about such arcane matters, this is a chart of sh% by shot type by distance over the last three years. I’m working on a project to generate a ‘danger adjusted corsi against’ (that is to say, adjusting Corsi against for shot type and distance, which should actually provide a single number that incorporates high/medium/low scoring chances into a single metric) for defensive pairs, and this is a necessary intermediate step.

    http://i.imgur.com/5WZ8ozw.jpg

  66. Woogie63 says:

    rickithebear,

    Really nice, thanks. If that right side of the ice, look more like the last 14 games that will be a key to our success

  67. Woogie63 says:

    Soup Fascist: Who did you want?Antti Niemi, Karri Ramo? Ryan Miller? Cam Ward?

    No one is trading a great, proven goaltender in their prime unless there is a huge overpay.Assuming very few teams are moving a top 10 / 15 NHL goaltender, you have a few choices:

    1. Settle on a veteran bottom 3rd in the league goaltender who is unlikely to improve.

    2. Sign an aging Former top 10 goaltender in decline (Hello Cam Ward)

    3. Develop your own goaltender (the Oilers have not been particularly adept in this regard).

    4. Pluck a backup from a team who already has an established star goaltender and give him a chance to flourish.

    Talbot is not a slam dunk – agreed, but you kind of need to pick your poison when it comes to obtaining a goaltender.

    NYI, NJ, Panthers, Avs and CBJ seem happy with their trades

  68. G Money says:

    Woogie63,

    What is the point you’re trying to make?

  69. Woogie63 says:

    ASkoreyko:
    Woogie63,

    Who do you propose the Oilers acquire instead of Talbot? It is fine to complain about the current situation but not when you don’t provide your own solution or even an analysis of current situation. How many proven starters were traded in the last year? Which of the other positions to do you rob from to provide this proven starter?

    All proven starters began as question marks. The mark of a smart management team is to manage the risk and make smart bets. As has been proven above, I think Chia made the right choice with Talbot. Also as LT has stated before, the real mistake was not adjusting last year when things went off the rails, hopefully Chia will be more proactive.

    Although in all honesty, I have a hard time getting too upset about anything that happened BM (before McDavid) as without all of those tumbler clicks we would not still be randomly screaming ‘McDAVID!!!!!!’

    Oiler goalie who played the most games in the season,

    2005 Markkanen
    2006 Roloson
    2007 Garon
    2008 Roloson
    2009 Deslauries
    2010 Khabibulin
    2011 Dubynk
    2012 Dubynk
    2014 Scrivens

    No hall of famers in that group. What is the defination of insanity again?

  70. Woogie63 says:

    G Money:
    Woogie63,

    What is the point you’re trying to make?

    it is possible to trade for a proven goalie …

  71. G Money says:

    Woogie63,

    I thought that might be the point you were trying to make. The reason I “thought” it and didn’t “know” it is because the sample set of teams that you used not only doesn’t make your point, it contradicts it.

    That tiny list not only shows how rare it is for a proven goalie to be traded, but in most cases the teams you’re listing are currently running with a goalie who was not “proven” at the time they acquired him.

    Three of them in fact (NJD, CBJ, Avs) are running with goalies who were basically acquired the same way the Oilers acquired Talbot – by trading for an unproven but very promising goalie.

  72. spoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    You have to ask yourself, is it the same this time?

    China, for eg, appears to be notably different. But that’s a story that hasn’t fully played out yet.

    Emerging markets…

    Draghi’s bazooka

    Interest rates are already at ZIRP.

    Sentiment towards another round of your central bank making you poorer to ‘save the economy” might not be as tolerant.

    Everyone remember this:
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uOLX_6QXJnE/U2UhL2aut8I/AAAAAAAApSc/Pe_mzLhJJ1c/s1600/atlantic-april-2012-cover-ben-bernanke.png

    And yet here we sit, 7 years later, with the economy still using the life support that “saved it” from the last bubble popping.

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Fun side note:I always mix up Huey Lewis and the News with Bruce Hornsby and the Range.No idea why.

    That’s just the way it is.

    Some things will never change.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: Best investment decision of my life was going heavy into commodities and miners after the great recession crash.

    My tips would be:

    -don’t try to guess bottom. It’s way better to get in late than too early. Stock prices usually lag the commodity price and no one knows the bottom until it’s in the rearview mirror.

    -look for companies that are under priced vis a vi their assets. I bought a pile of Teck cominco when they had more cash on hand than their market cap (!).Their liabilities were not near enough to warrant the discount on the price.

    – (except oil I’m avoiding oil for a while there’s just too much supply)

    Just weighing in here on Wooguy’s feedback. These 3 points are all spot on. I don’t follow coal so can’t speak on that

    The market spooking like this is interesting. We could see the cracks last week as we discussed. Massive recovery aside…man, why was I out exploring Austin early this morning instead of buying AAPL at the open and selling it at 2PM? (Usually these one day crazy moves see the intraday rally fizzle with a couple of hours to go as people take profits. When’s the last time you could say you bought AAPL and made 10%+ in a day?!)

    From my experience you don’t have a day like this and just bounce back. Whatever the market does in the coming weeks, you can expect it to re-test today’s morning lows at some point. I’d continue to keep my powder dry and stay in cash. This correction is nowhere near over yet, in my opinion.

    Also, again, I’ve always said the same as Woodguy here: The ONLY thing you get with picking bottoms is stinky fingers. Don’t try to do it.

  75. Masamax says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This new season has been great, if you are a fan of David Lynch. The first season was a love letter to Alan Moore and Kurt Busiek and several other comic book writers. This season has been a love letter to Lynch and 70s noir films. If you are looking for an easy watch, this is not it. The first season was definitely more accessible, but I found the second season much more rewarding.

  76. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    You have to ask yourself, is it the same this time?

    China, for eg, appears to be notably different.But that’s a story that hasn’t fully played out yet.

    Emerging markets…

    Draghi’s bazooka

    Interest rates are already at ZIRP.

    Sentiment towards another round of your central bank making you poorer to ‘save the economy” might not be as tolerant.

    Everyone remember this:
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uOLX_6QXJnE/U2UhL2aut8I/AAAAAAAApSc/Pe_mzLhJJ1c/s1600/atlantic-april-2012-cover-ben-bernanke.png

    And yet here we sit, 7 years later, with the economy still using the life support that “saved it” from the last bubble popping.

    Chinese demand is much lower this time around so I doubt there’s the fun 10X spike to cash out on in 2 years or less like last time.

    Commodities are still used every day and its just a matter of finding the ones that are getting under priced due to market sentiment rather than supply/demand.

    Then find the companies in those industries that have good market share and healthy balance sheets that are undervalued due to the sector being under valued rather than the company itself.

    Your right in that world wide demand won’t spike again like last time (probably), but demand still exists, its just a matter of sussing out which sectors are being driven by fear rather than fundamentals.

    That’s why I’m staying away from oil. The fundamentals of that business have it being over supplied for the near and long term.

  77. Woogie63 says:

    G Money:
    Woogie63,

    I thought that might be the point you were trying to make.The reason I “thought” it and didn’t “know” it is because the sample set of teams that you used not only doesn’t make your point, it contradicts it.

    That tiny list not only shows how rare it is for a proven goalie to be traded, but in most cases the teams you’re listing are currently running with a goalie who was not “proven” at the time they acquired him.

    Three of them in fact (NJD, CBJ, Avs) are running with goalies who were basically acquired the same way the Oilers acquired Talbot – by trading for an unproven but very promising goalie.

    I would add the following names to this POV,

    Anderson, Elliot, Miller, Mason, Smith, Neuvirth, Nabakov and Lehtonen as younger vet who were traded

  78. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63: NYI, NJ, Panthers, Avs and CBJ seem happy with their trades

    This is awful Monday morning quarterbacking and a terrible post.

    NYI – They didn’t really trade for Halak, just his rights before he went UFA and signed him to a new deal. He posted a .914 for them last year. Think they are happy with that?

    NJD – They traded for Scheider when he had a whole 30 more games than Talbot does now and was a career back up when the acquired him. You would have considered him an “unproven back up” too. What a crock of shit to bring him up.

    FLA – Lou is good, but aging. Good trade for them. Think Lou comes to EDM? Ha!

    COL – Varly had 59 NHL games when the Avs traded for him. Talbot has 57. The fact that you bring him up just slams home the fact that you’re just pulling shit out of your ass to bitch and moan without actually doing any research or knowing what you are talking about. Awful.

    CBJ – Bobrovsky was coming off a .898 season with PHI where he only played 29 games as a back up and was traded for next to nothing. Again you bring up a situation which was ACTUALLY WORSE than the EDM/Talbot situation to bitch about the EDM/Talbot deal.

    You really have no clue do you?

    Awful.

  79. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Best investment decision of my life was going heavy into commodities and miners after the great recession crash.

    My tips would be:

    -don’t try to guess bottom. It’s way better to get in late than too early. Stock prices usually lag the commodity price and no one knows the bottom until it’s in the rearview mirror.

    -look for companies that are under priced vis a vi their assets. I bought a pile of Teck cominco when they had more cash on hand than their market cap (!).Their liabilities were not near enough to warrant the discount on the price.

    I’m looking hard at coal companies right now.

    George Soros, who was a major player in supporting Obama’s climate change policy of moving away from coal based energy just bought into 2 US coal companies which is raising a lot of eyebrows.

    Coal is priced like its extinct but it is still needed to produce a majority majority the world’s energy.

    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/George-Soros-energy-coal-shares/2015/08/18/id/670705/

    Maybe I’m biased because I made a pile on coal via Teck before but it, along with most commodities are very cheap right now via supply and demand (except oil I’m avoiding oil for a while there’s just too much supply)

    Very Interesting…didn’t even think about coal. You are so right about trying to guess the bottom. I still think there is a ways to go but I think FCX is already below their ’09 levels if I’m not mistaken. Interesting days ahead for the markets. Time to start doing some DD again.

    Thx for the insight as always!

  80. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: That’s why I’m staying away from oil. The fundamentals of that business have it being over supplied for the near and long term.

    I don’t disagree with any your post, but would like to make a few points…

    In the past, oversupply hasn’t always mattered to Oil. When Oil hit the 1998 low, oversupply was huge and the glut continued on, but the market never saw that low again and V-shaped right out of it.

    That said, I doubt we have seen the bottom in oil yet, and as both you and NYCOil have commented, we can only tell in the rearview mirror anyway.

    And while commodities are always used, flow is huge to pricing and demographics tell us that flow cannot possibly increase (sans intervention). Plus all the misallocation of capital made based on higher pricing has to be destroyed or removed from the system for the complex to make healthy steps forward. Your central bank would prefer to fuck you over on this point though.

    I think we have to ask ourselves, what would the level of pricing be if CBs hadn’t blown bubbles in commodities, stawks, junk bonds etc.?

    This is 16 years now of heavy intervention. Most of us are not old enough to have invested in relatively undistorted markets. And none of us (ok maybe Unca Miltie) are old enough to have invested in markets with zero intervention. Think about that for a moment.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    WG do you have any “must follow” financial guys on twitter?

  82. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Massive recovery aside…man, why was I out exploring Austin early this morning instead of buying AAPL at the open and selling it at 2PM? (Usually these one day crazy moves see the intraday rally fizzle with a couple of hours to go as people take profits. When’s the last time you could say you bought AAPL and made 10%+ in a day?!)

    Something tells me this won’t be your last opportunity to ride the hedge fund hotel play, lol.

  83. AsiaOil says:

    Well that sucked – just lost a long post on Talbot because of the timed-out issue on the site. Please fix that LT.

    Anyway GM/W&O and I had it out over the summer on Talbot and don’t need to re-do that – we’ll see how it turns out and I’ll be damn happy if Talbot excels. The gist of my post was I don’t like “betting” on backup goalies with skinny records to immediately turn into workhorse starters in a stressful environment like EDM. It’s a bad idea and the last 10 years have proven that multiple times. There was a reason Roloson survived and Talbot has never faced the kind of poison that will emerge quickly if we start losing games 5-4 because of the goalie. You need mental toughness to pull out of that type of stall that only comes with experience and a ton of self-confidence built up over years.

    That said – Chia probably made the best deal he could – would have preferred Bernier – but who know about the availability or price. So I hope Talbot turns out and loses me that bet because I’ll take no pleasure in winning.

  84. AsiaOil says:

    Don’t disagree on any of that – we live in dangerous times because of massive govt and CB intervention turning us into a planned economy – like that turned out so well in former soviet bloc states. Stupid humans never learn unfortunately.

    I was expecting big inflation after the QE4 button was hit – but if remained focused on specific assets like stocks and real estate – rather than seeping more broadly into the economy. So I’ve come to agree with the point of view that foresees deflation first from the implosion of wide-spread credit bubbles and then -and only then – hyper-inflation when the CBs go nuclear (negative interest rates and massive monitization) to try fend off the inevitable deflationary crash and save their friends on Wall street. Watching the US Fed playing coy with a pathetic 25 basis point interest rate rise after 7 years of ZIRP would be funny if it was not so pathetic. Yes everything is just bloody awesome………

    Hopefully the Oilers are good this year – distraction from the train-wreck is necessary 🙂

    spoiler: I don’t disagree with any your post, but would like to make a few points…

    In the past, oversupply hasn’t always mattered to Oil. When Oil hit the 1998 low, oversupply was huge and the glut continued on, but the market never saw that low again and V-shaped right out of it.

    That said, I doubt we have seen the bottom in oil yet, and as both you and NYCOil have commented, we can only tell in the rearview mirror anyway.

    And while commodities are always used, flow is huge to pricing and demographics tell us that flow cannot possibly increase (sans intervention). Plus all the misallocation of capital madebased on higher pricing has to be destroyed or removed from the system for the complex to make healthy steps forward.Your central bank would prefer to fuck you over on this point though.

    I think we have to ask ourselves, what would the level of pricing be if CBs hadn’t blown bubbles in commodities, stawks, junk bonds etc.?

    This is 16 years now of heavy intervention.Most of us are not old enough to have invested in relatively undistorted markets.And none of us (ok maybe Unca Miltie) are old enough to have invested in markets with zero intervention.Think about that for a moment.

  85. spoiler says:

    Pouzar,

    Michael Pettis is The Man on China, but he doesn’t twit. His blog is here though:
    http://blog.mpettis.com/

    Most of the best guys require a subscription, but have always liked Fleck:
    https://twitter.com/flecksthoughts

    I also enjoy:

    https://twitter.com/ttmygh
    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein

    Basically look at who Fleckenstein and Williams follow and you should have a pretty good base.

    Fleck and Williams both into gold as an investment class so might be a help with Freeport decision.

  86. spoiler says:

    AsiaOil: Watching the US Fed playing coy with a pathetic 25 basis point interest rate rise after 7 years of ZIRP would be funny if it was not so pathetic. Yes everything is just bloody awesome………

    I know!!!

  87. Drew says:

    Woodguy: This is awful Monday morning quarterbacking and a terrible post.

    NYI – They didn’t really trade for Halak, just his rights before he went UFA and signed him to a new deal.He posted a .914 for them last year.Think they are happy with that?

    NJD – They traded for Scheider when he had a whole 30 more games than Talbot does now and was a career back up when the acquired him. You would have considered him an “unproven back up” too.What a crock of shit to bring him up.

    FLA – Lou is good, but aging.Good trade for them.Think Lou comes to EDM?Ha!

    COL – Varly had 59 NHL games when the Avs traded for him. Talbot has 57.The fact that you bring him up just slams home the fact that you’re just pulling shit out of your ass to bitch and moan without actually doing any research or knowing what you are talking about.Awful.

    CBJ – Bobrovsky was coming off a .898 season with PHI where he only played 29 games as a back up and was traded for next to nothing.Again you bring up a situation which was ACTUALLY WORSE than the EDM/Talbot situation to bitch about the EDM/Talbot deal.

    You really have no clue do you?

    Awful.

    Very good post Woodguy… i am a huge fan of reason.

  88. ASkoreyko says:

    Woodguy,

    It is responses like this that keep people from making the type of drive-by commenting that started this in the first place. You might be able to get away with that on TSN.ca or even HFboards but not at LT’s! Great post again WG!

  89. Pouzar says:

    spoiler,

    Thank you!

  90. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil,

    Well that sucked – just lost a long post on Talbot because of the timed-out issue on the site. Please fix that LT.

    Just hit the back button on your browser and you won’t lose anything.

    About 50% of my posts have been timed out and re-submitted after using the back button.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Woodguy,

    WG do you have any “must follow” financial guys on twitter?

    Not really.

    Here’s my favs, but they don’t give any specific company info, just good market info:

    @SBarlow_ROB
    @LadyFOHF
    @MrMacroMarkets
    @KitchenNews
    @MarketWatch

  92. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    All very relevant info and questions. No doubt.

    That being said there are few things that are different this time about oil:

    – Top 5 producers in 1998 were SA, UAE, Iran, VEN, Iraq with Kuwait in 6th. All OPEC producers.

    -Top 5 producers today are SA (duh), Russia, USA, Canada, China, with UAE in
    6th.

    Back in 98 the Chinese economy was just ramping up and everyone’s demand curve was outstripping supply because no one knew what the Chinese peak was and OPEC controlled the Oil so “why wouldn’t they ride it hard and high?”

    SA controlled OPEC and Mexico, Venezuela, Norway, Oman etc fell in line eventually.

    Now OPEC doesn’t control the top 5 and its a market share battle more than anything.

    The US having shale oil is important because the previous BIG BUYER no longer buys and still doesn’t export to all excess US hangs around filling up storage.

    The other thing about shale oil is there are a ton of spudded wells just sitting until prices rise so the reaction to higher prices will be swift in terms of US supply.

    Add to this demand levelling off (still increasing, but not nearly as sharply as it had as China and India modernized their economies) and you have a supply that will out strip demand at a moments notice because US shale producers can ramp up production fast, Russia relies on Oil for income and can’t slow down, and Canada has massive capital expenditures in place and will produce regardless of price.

    There’s a lot of oil that OPEC can’t control and despite their attempts, OPEC can’t stop the production so oil will languish for the foreseeable future.

    Imo.

    Also,

    Add to all this the fact that money is basically free due to Central Bank planning for the last decade and more and you can’t bank on OECD countries creating any more demand any time soon.

    Things I’m trying to divest myself of: Alberta/Sask real estate, oil holdings.

  93. AsiaOil says:

    Yeah that always worked – until this time – backed out and it was all gone. Just have to copy before posting first time I guess to be safe?

    Woodguy:
    AsiaOil,

    Well that sucked – just lost a long post on Talbot because of the timed-out issue on the site. Please fix that LT.

    Just hit the back button on your browser and you won’t lose anything.

    About 50% of my posts have been timed out and re-submitted after using the back button.

  94. Snowman says:

    AsiaOil,

    Any time that has happened to me I’ve just hit refresh when it gives me the timeout message and everything has always been posted (maybe I’m just lucky).

    As for Talbot and mental toughness. I agree he’s not experienced anything like Edmonton when the goalie is costing wins. But it’s a little unfair to say that he’s lacking mental toughness. He basically carried the Rangers to the playoffs. That’s pressure. He thrived in it. Not the same kind of confidence testing pressure but pressure nonetheless.

    Additionally, he had the benefit of learning from one of the great goalies in the game. He learned how to prepare, how to practice and how to play the games from one of the best possible teachers. That has to count for something. Two years of watching someone who is great at their job will only help to make you better.

    Talbot could bomb this year, first year as a starter is tough to predict. If he does, I hope they bring him back for a second. Trading a struggling goalie who becomes a Vezina candidate can’t happen again. That would be crushing.

    And for insurance, I’m betting Scrivens has a better year as a back up. He can’t be worse right?

  95. spoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    Yeah, I’m not a big believer in this time being the same either… just that V is in the back of my mind nagging at me.

    And even with China ramping and OPEC control, there was a glut for a long time during that price recovery.

    Bugs me.

  96. Kmart99 says:

    Woodguy,

    Avoiding AB/sask real estate would not be my recommendation….

    If you’re looking for a time to invest in AB real estate, this coming november will likely provide the lowest prices for buyers in the last 6 years. Especially in CGY and FT Mac. I’m excited about the idea of buying this fall, as should many other investors.

    Spring/summer 2014 was a buyer’s nightmare. I viewed over 100 properties, offered on 9, and walked away overpaying for 1…. Ugh. While this drop in oil sucks for flippers, it is great for holders and new buyers. A couple leases that ended had rents drop, which sucks, but it’s temporary so I’ll take the dip in value for now as long as I can invest as much as possible while prices are still low.

  97. GCW_69 says:

    “However, giving up second and third-round picks is miles better than a top-10 selection (that was the cost to NJD for Cory Schneider”

    On what basis do you make this assertion? NJ gave up a top ten for a sure thing. A guy who had taken Luongo’s job.

    The additional surety has value. For me, I would rather have the sure thing. Especially because the last two seasons, as bad as the teams were, looked much worse because of goaltending. It’s such a critical part of the game certainty, as much as you can have with goaltenders, is worth a lot.

    In the playoffs, a goalie is also pretty much the only position where a single player can steal you a series.

  98. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy,

    I see it quite different.

    Yahoo sports did a great interview with Gillis after he was fired, where he talked about the goalie issue. They had thought Schneider was originally and asset play, bring him along and trade him to fix a need. But over two play-offs he had outplayed the prized Luongo and had become the starter.

    You are splitting hairs on Halak, they got a proven starter to play goal

    BTW I loving your comments on Oil, I am more a fundamentalist and keep a closer eye on emerging middle class size vs. supply side. My venture money is in India, they have ben beating Chinese price for 7 years.

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