WHEN AUTUMN LEAVES START TO FALL

I love the fall, it’s my favorite time of year. That said, there is a period that combines denial and stubbornness (which is my natural state) about the coming winter. It’s cool this morning in the house, we left the window open and I had to grab my coyote blanket (Mrs. Lowetide got it in Banff, it’s magic—like an instant fireplace) after coming downstairs. The hockey signs are there—someone says ‘Perry Pearn’ to me at least once a day, the KHL boxcars are rolling down the track, those Q boys are well into pre-season and the anticipation of the coming weather—even sweeter this year since the Gods blessed us with ample treasure—builds stronger each day. It’s life in a northern town. I love it so much.

ZIYAT BOXCARS

  • 4GP, 0-1-1 +1 2pims. 3SOG, 7:17 a night on 12 shifts. 3 blocked shots. He’s playing a little less than he did last season (9 minutes a night) but it’s a long season. Encouraged he’s getting minutes in every game so far, including 8:41 in the most recent game.

MARCO ROY’S SUMMER

Sometimes a kick in the ass is just the ticket. There had to be multiple reasons why the Edmonton Oilers drafted Marco Roy in 2013’s second round (he has a range of skills) and there has to be a reason they didn’t sign him to an NHL contract (EDM has signed Darnell Nurse, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Platzer, Ben Betker and Greg Chase to NHL deals). Roy’s reaction to all of this is encouraging:

  • Roy: “It really disappointed me [not to receive an offer]. I thought it was up to me to prove them made a mistake. I trained very hard this summer. I now weigh 190 lbs, I’m stronger and faster.”
  • Roy: “They told me they did not see me play in the NHL during the next two to three years. It is their perception, I respect it, but I will prove them wrong.” Source

Great story there, recommend clicking the link. Roy’s numbers in the QMJHL last season were solid, but there’s also little doubt the Quebec Remparts had other options for their offensive lines. I wonder if he was thrust into a two-way role later in the season (Tkachev and DuClair were added and that had to impact the lines) but the Oilers clearly felt his work was wanting. I’m cheering for him, love his attitude and look forward to more stories about kids responding the right way to a challenge.

gernat ferguson 201415First time I saw Martin Gernat (as an Edmonton Oil King) he looked very raw, a gangly sort with wheels and a lot of chaos. Every time I saw him after that first game, Gernat seemed to add something else to his game. He had some impressive months in Edmonton playing junior and his adjustment to the AHL seemed to go well in year one. Year two? It all fell apart:

  • Dallas Eakins on Gernat during Oilers training camp: “Has to get stronger and play a simpler game with more will.”
  • Jonathan Willis on Gernat’s early demotion from training camp: “This is an embarrassment for a guy who should be an NHL recall option in 2014-15. He has been passed in the view of the coaching staff by both Dillon Simpson and Jordan Oesterle – rookie pros – and both those guys played last night. Eakins praised his work in the summer but said he’s “still far below what it’s going to take” in terms of strength and endurance to survive in the NHL.”
  • Todd Nelson in December before the coach came up to Edmonton: “The guy who has turned the corner for me over the last couple of weeks is Martin Gernat. Marty was very inconsistent at the start of the year, we had to communicate to him we wanted him to play with more intensity and more consistently, he’s bringing it the last five of six games.”

Gernat’s season didn’t turn around, his performance saw him losing ground to all manner of prospects as the year wound to conclusion. Here’s the Eric Rodgers forensics on the OKC blue:

rodgers defense

Gernat’s offense—once a calling card—is very low here, he’s simply not an option. His EV GF-GA on is better than a few of the puck movers but the Oilers value several men on this list more than Gernat. I’d guess we’re seeing him for the last TC and final season as a member of the organization. I can’t understand how a young man can play so well in year on AHL and then flag to this level. There were no injuries, there did seem to be some confusion and that goes to (often) communication. I’ll be very interested to see how Gernat looks and performs in TC’s early days this fall. It may already be too late, but I still remember that rangy fellow with the wheels and hope we see that again.

davidson ferguson1

The Edmonton Oilers used four of six picks on defensemen at the 2015 draft, and Peter Chiarelli added some big men via trade (Griffin Reinhart, Eric Gryba) during the draft. Now, you and I love the puck movers and the math but Chiarelli had some tough buggers playing defense in Boston and we’ll see a size increase in Edmonton when camp hits. The sheer number of prospect and NHL defensemen are a change in the weather for the organization. Who will that benefit? Well, among the AHL defensemen listed above, the biggest players are:

  • Brandon Davidson 6.02, 214
  • Oscar Klefbom 6.03, 210
  • David Musil 6.04, 207
  • Martin Gernat 6.04, 202

From that group, Klefbom looks absolutely ready for a long run in the NHL and I’ve been impressed with Musil’s progress. Corey Pronman had him inside his top 10 Oilers prospects this summer and mentioned his above average defensive play and high IQ. Sometimes in life we speak in absolutes and the truth is there’s mostly grey and uncertainty. I’m so glad no one told David Musil he didn’t have a chance to make it, it appears he’s decided to write his own story. I hope he makes it.

tomei5

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show, 10 this morning TSN1260.

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll talk about the plethora of defensemen in the organization and those Oil Kings kicking around the Oilers system.
  • Jamie Nye, CJME Regina. We’ll talk about the Roughriders and their housecleaning.
  • Dean Millard, TSN1260. Eskimos, Oilers, some golf, Millard can talk about anything so it’ll probably be wide ranging.
  • Other guests pending or awaiting release from prison.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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55 Responses to "WHEN AUTUMN LEAVES START TO FALL"

  1. zatch says:

    19 Days until hockey.
    35 Days until hockey that counts.
    36 days until hockey that counts and the team that matters.

    As for the breath of fall, LT, I agree with you. Fall is the best season bar none. I am envious of you in the west. In Ottawa, there’s 30 on the forecast into next week, with appropriate humidity to match. Why I signed on the dotted line to come to The Capital and leave my beloved Nova Scotia I’ll never know.

    Although I did meet this lass…

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    Sorry, way off topic: Can somebody give me a phonetic spelling of Eetu Laurikainen?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Jon: I think it’s ‘EAT-UGH LARA-KANE-IN” but that’s a guess. Lara as a in Lara’s theme.

  4. Cahoon says:

    I say it in my head as eee-too low-rahk-eye-nehn.

  5. SoCaloil says:

    “Imagine you’re a deer. You’re prancing along. You get thirsty. You spot a little brook. You put your little deer lips down to the cool, clear water. BAM! A f—in’ bullet rips off part of your head! Your brains are laying on the ground in little bloody pieces! Now I ask you: Would you give a f— what kind of pants the son of a b—- who shot you was wearing?!”

    Best fricken line!!!! –Mona Lisa Vito (Oscar winner Marisa Tomei) in My Cousin Vinny

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    I was hoping it was “ET-TOO” so it would work for a couple of jokes. I’m writing an imaginary meet and greet with E. L. for a blog post.

    Edit: My two jokes are: (1) “Et tu?,” which is totally unoriginal and (2) if he’s ever the Oilers’ backup goalie, he could be E2G2.

  7. RMGS says:

    zatch: 19 Days until hockey.

    Even better: it’s 9 days until the Young Stars tourney.

  8. Магия 10 says:

    jonrmcleod: I’m writing an imaginary meet and greet with E. L. for a blog post.

    Unpardonable lack of strategic drive. If you had any ambition you’d have an imaginary meet and greet with O.E.L.. I’ve already traded for him 5 times before breakfast. It’s not hard. Well it is hard, but not if you put on your man pants.

  9. dustrock says:

    jonrmcleod: I was hoping it was “ET-TOO” so it would work for a couple of jokes. I’m writing an imaginary meet and greet with E. L. for a blog post.Edit: My two jokes are: (1) “Et tu?,” which is totally unoriginal and (2) if he’s ever the Oilers’ backup goalie, he could be E2G2.

    I already call him E2D2, so E2G2 is even better.

  10. SwedishPoster says:

    Eh-too lou-REE-keye-nehn

    Lou as in loud.

    Would my guess after growing up in the north of Sweden with a big Finnish population but I don’t speak any finnish myself so take it for what it’s worth. Very tricky language.

  11. PunjabiOil says:

    Re: Gernat – The Problem is you develop a past.

  12. dustrock says:

    Wonder when we’ll get the Young Stars roster for the Oilers.

  13. Pouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: Eh-too lou-REE-keye-nehnLou as in loud.Would my guess after growing up in the north of Sweden with a big Finnish population but I don’t speak any finnish myself so take it for what it’s worth. Very tricky language.

    Reminds me of my 5 yr old’s dinosaur book….who new there was a Edmontosaurus????
    *shrug*

    EDIT: Who am I kidding…WG probably has a life sized sculpture in his back yard. Nothin to see here. 😛

  14. Ducey says:

    Maybe not the best opening line in that MOR story, courtesy the translation:

    Marc-Olivier Roy is determined to lie to the Edmonton Oilers, who refused to grant him an entry contract in the National Hockey League (NHL).

    Matheson has a column up at the Journal. Its the usual pre training camp fluff about the Nilsson. However, he mentions that Yak2 and Vegetable Kessy have recovered from their leg injuries and are now skating well.

  15. Ducey says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Re: Gernat – The Problem is you develop a past.

    Sometimes a player just isn’t good enough/ doesn’t develop as everyone had hoped.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Jezzuz…I know injuries happen but look at this AHL Defensive depth chart.

    Something has to give indeed Mr. Henderson

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/9/2/crowded

  17. dustrock says:

    Maybe…a three for one????

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pouzar,

    I assume the idea is to wait to see who makes the starting NHL roster. If they end up sending down guys like Reinhart and Nurse, then I expect they will be looking to make trades.

    Brad Hunt, while he isn’t an NHL player or a great fit, is the best offensive Dman in the AHL. I would think they could find a new home for him pretty quick.

  19. Ducey says:

    Pouzar:
    Jezzuz…I know injuries happen but look at this AHL Defensive depth chart.

    Something has to give indeed Mr. Henderson

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/9/2/crowded

    Meh. One injury and sending down Legs to the ECHL to start gives each team (NHL and AHL) seven players

  20. Clarkenstein says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Sorry, way off topic: Can somebody give me a phonetic spelling of Eetu Laurikainen?

    “Wuh-ayne Grrr-et-skee”

  21. Магия 10 says:

    Ducey: However, he mentions that Yak2 and Vegetable Kessy have recovered from their leg injuries and are now skating well.

    Hey if it worked for Yakimov they should try it on a few other skaters.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Esks trade Nichols to Bombers.
    Yeah…..not gonna help with that 1950s playbook Bel-Fake is carrying around.

  23. Drew says:

    dustrock:
    Maybe…a three for one????

    after this 3 for 1 and the blockbuster all-for-1 OEL trade we won’t have any players left. anyone thinking about that, Bueller?… Bueller?… Bueller??

  24. razor says:

    SwedishPoster,

    In Finnish, “ai” is pronounced “i” not “ey” in English. So “kai” in last name is actually pronounced “ki” or “keye”. My Finnish wife’s name is Raila or R”eye”la in English.

  25. rickithebear says:

    Ducey: Sometimes a player just isn’t good enough/ doesn’t develop as everyone had hoped.

    Gernat 6’4″ 203lb 2.67 lb/in
    13-14 20yr AHL
    57gm 4g 17A -12
    38gm 3EVG 10 EVA 2PPA -12 .342 EVPPG
    19gm 1 EVG 5 EVA Even .316 EVPPG

    14-15 21yr AHL 16.95 EVTOI
    30gm 0G 3 EVA E .100 EVPPG .35 EVP/60
    24gm 1 EVG 5 EVA +1 .25 EVPPG .88 EVP/60

    Simpson 6’2″ 194lb 2.62 lb/in
    14-15 21yr AHL 16.32 EVTOI
    70gm 3G 14A +4
    42gm 2 EVG 7 EVA +5 .214 EVPPG .79 EVP/60
    28gm 1 EVG 7 EVA -1 .286 EVPPG 1.05 EVP/60

    Oesterle 6’0′ 182lb 2.53 lb/in
    14-15 22yr AHL
    65gm 8G 17A -6
    Pre call up
    49gm 4EVG 9 EVA +5 .265 EVPPG .89 EVP/60
    post call up
    16gm 2 EVG 2 EVA -11 .250 EVPPG .84 EVP/60

    Past him?

    Oh you are looking past him.

    We need Qual comp for these players.

    Ziyat pyagin 20yr 6.5.5″ 195lb 2.52 lb/in

  26. Kris11 says:

    Cherry would say Etsoo Lorkin

  27. "Steve Smith" says:

    Kris11:
    Cherry would say Etsoo Lorkin

    Teh-DEE PEK-man

  28. SwedishPoster says:

    razor:
    SwedishPoster,

    In Finnish, “ai” is pronounced “i” not “ey” in English. So “kai” in last name isactually pronounced “ki” or “keye”. My Finnish wife’s name is Raila or R”eye”la in English.

    That’s what I wrote, lou-REE-keye-nehn.
    With lou as in loud.

  29. SwedishPoster says:

    Loud with the US pronounciation btw.

    You could also pronounce it Echo Laurel-leaves.

    Or the Great Wall of Finland.

    Or traded with picks for OEL.

  30. dustrock says:

    Apparently Stauffer confirmed Slepyshev will be in Penticton.

  31. Lowetide says:

    That’s it. I’m calling Laurikainen “Smytty”

  32. v4ance says:

    Lowetide,

    If it’s Eeeh Tu, I’m calling Laurikainen “Frenchie”

  33. Lowetide says:

    v4ance:
    Lowetide,

    If it’s Eeeh Tu, I’m calling Laurikainen“Frenchie”

    What about Eeeh Tu, Brute?

  34. G Money says:

    Gotta go with “Bud”. Can never go wrong.

  35. Ducey says:

    G Money:
    Gotta go with “Bud”.Can never go wrong.

    Unless your boss is testing for drugs or alcohol

  36. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey,

    I just wanted to let you know that I was perusing the Alberta baby name registry yesterday, and I noted that, last year in Alberta, someone named their baby boy Duce-Jackson. That’s the first name.

    Duce-Jackson.

  37. vishcosity says:

    Is it too early to trade this Duce?

    (I prolly would have picked bud.)

  38. vishcosity says:

    Speaking of which, apparently on Sept 12 in Redway California (Mendocino County) is the second annual Golden Tarp Festival featuring the best light-deprivation entries and also probably some kind of award that includes cheetos and a water bottle. (I made that last part up.) http://www.mateel.org. We just put $600 into our telephoto lens and I’m kinda curious about who might attend. Anyone ever heard of the rainbow tribe? I gotta get to one of their gatherings too. 10000 people camping on BLM land? Who goes to that? I really wanna know.

    /madness

  39. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    vishcosity,

    $600 on a telephoto isn’t bad at all.
    Must say I’ve never heard of this event, but I guess that’s cause it’s new. Wishing you the best, though, as always!

  40. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey:
    Willis says Schultz is primed for a breakout year:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/five-players-bound-to-break-out-in-2015-16-nhl-season/

    Welcome to the club, Mr. Willis! 😉

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    dustrock:
    Apparently Stauffer confirmed Slepyshev will be in Penticton.

    Awesome. Looking forward to seeing him.

  42. Rondo says:

    OT: Mardy Fish/Tennis/Mental health

    Quite an article

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/mardy-fish-us-open/

  43. Woogie63 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    What about Reinhart is he going to Pentiton?

  44. Tire Fire says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Ducey,

    I just wanted to let you know that I was perusing the Alberta baby name registry yesterday, and I noted that, last year in Alberta, someone named their baby boy Duce-Jackson.That’s the first name.

    Duce-Jackson.

    Duce-Jackson, Albertan Saxon.

  45. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey,

    Not a safety sensitive position so no worries

  46. TheOtherJohn says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Welcome to the club, Mr. Willis!

    Think Young Willis just defined Jultz as the modern day Dick Tarnstrom

  47. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woogie63,

    Canucks have announced their roster, but the other teams haven’t yet, as far as I know.

  48. RexLibris says:

    My understanding of Finnish is that the names, as written in English, are pronounced with every letter.

    eg: Sauna is properly pronounced Sah-oo-nah.

    You’ll sound like a fool saying that to the average Canadian WASP, but that’s the Finnish pronunciation.

    So my guess has always been Eetu Laurikainen – Ee-too Lo-ri-kay-nen.

  49. RexLibris says:

    Listened to Bruce Arthur (I think it was Bruce, at least) on the radio yesterday and when he was talking about the Bombers’ injuries at QB I thought to myself “I bet Nichols lands there”.

    His contract is up this year and you’re better off getting something for him now.

    It means that Reilly is very near ready to go or they wouldn’t risk going into Labour Day with just Franklin and Lynch.

    I wish the best for Nichols but suspect Bombers’ fans will (again) be disappointed.

  50. RexLibris says:

    On the subject of Gernat – like LT and Bruce, I always came away impressed by his play in junior. He was chaos at times, but at the WHL level it was often calculated to a degree and paired with someone who could cover home plate while he was away.

    I most often saw Gernat play with Reinhart and the two worked very well together, even on the PK. Gernat was used more broadly than Reinhart, while Reinhart’s specialty was of critical importance for the team as a whole.

    If Reinhart starts the year down in the AHL I wonder if Fleming puts those two together for a time to see if they can find some chemistry.

    Nelson saved Lander.

    I wonder if Reinhart could save Gernat?

  51. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    They announced that Reilly is off the 6-game list at the Nichols trade press con. It took a while for it to be up on the Esks site, but its there now.

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    vishcosity:
    If you still hold paper money, I offer this with no further comment.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-02/second-largest-us-pension-fund-sell-12-stocks-holdings-advance-another-downturn

    I would say that you should probably comment by giving a little background about ZeroHedge for the casual reader before you drop a link and walk off! Ha ha

    The selling of the stock holdings by CALPERs is prudent. The opinions expressed by “Tyler Durden,” of course, are opinions. For those who don’t read much market material, ZeroHedge is the site for conspiracy theories/and calls out governments, central banks, and bubbles a lot.

    I’m not saying they’re wrong, etc., but you should know the context before you make investment decisions based on their opinions.

    I remain cautious on markets, as I have been for almost a year now. Nothing I am seeing out there now makes me change my mind. However, I am not currently in Asia_Oil’s camp that this is all going to blow up very soon in a cataclysmic way. I see it as a healthy correction that likely still has a ways to go (and by that I mean global markets). Canada I see a far less rosy scenario and remain concerned, sharp bounce off the lows in oil of late notwithstanding.

  53. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    They announced that Reilly is off the 6-game list at the Nichols trade press con.It took a while for it to be up on the Esks site, but its there now.

    I kind of figured so.

    Hervey isn’t the kind of GM to go into a game with only two rookie centers and a lot of question marks.

    Oops. Did I say centers? Freudian slip, I suppose.

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