EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING IN THE HINTERLANDS

The Oklahoma City Barons relied on their AHL veterans for a lot of special teams play. Matt Ford did a lot of work on the PK, Jason Williams did yeoman’s work on the power play. When evaluating prospects it’s important to create a level playing field whenever possible. There are severe limitations (we don’t have TOI) but if we divide things up it gives us a better view of what actually happened last season. Let’s have a look under the hood.

EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING (FORWARDS)

forwards EV OKC 1415Prospects Anton Lander and Iiro Pakarinen lead the way here and these are impressive totals. Andrew Miller is also in the range and really if we’re having a conversation about “graduating forwards” that’s the trio. You’d like Miller to be higher because he doesn’t have the physical element of Pakarinen or the two-way resume of Lander, but he’s a smart cookie and the power-play total is strong enough to suggest he might warrant a little time there in the NHL. Interesting to see who got PP time here, it’s basically only Lander and Miller getting the push (and the rest going to Jason Williams, Matt Ford, etc). Pitlick posted a significant number of his points with the man advantage.

EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING (DEFENSE)

defense EV OKC 1415Klefbom’s numbers are giant but of course it’s just over 10 per cent of the season. Brad Hunt is an impact AHL player on the power play and even strength (those are outstanding EV totals). Oesterle has a pro future but might end up as a tweener, I don’t know if these numbers tell us either way. Dillon Simpson’s offense is closer to Oesterle’s at even strength and that’s interesting—seems Simpson’s reputation is strictly stay-at-home and yet he posted 14 even-strength assists. Oh Marty Gernat, what have they done to you?

EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING (ROOKIES)

rookies EV 1415Yakimov looks good by this metric but if you go back over the years his even-strength totals were eclipsed by prospects who didn’t make it (Teemu Hartikainen was 66GP, 10-22-32 .484 as an AHL rookie) so it’s probably wise to allow for the possibility Yakimov will be a role player and a complementary offensive contributor. I like him a lot as a prospect, suspect he’ll spike this coming season. Winquist, who I also like, will need to show well this season and I believe he may. Oesterle and Simpson are the other promising players here, many believe Jujhar Khaira will have a career but we’ll need to see an enormous offensive improvement.

LIMITED GAMES

less than 10Each of these men have unique qualities and Klefbom won’t see the AHL until he’s an older fellow (and even then he might just scoot back home) if things go as planned. Platzer had a nice post-draft  junior career and his range of skills gets him mentioned in a lot of areas. Laleggia might be a very useful NHL player someday.

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30 Responses to "EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING IN THE HINTERLANDS"

  1. v4ance says:

    I don’t believe Klef will see another minute of AHL time for the rest of his career. I think he’s an NHLer for the next 10 years if his health holds up and then onto the KHL/SEL if he wants to play into his 40’s.

    I’m not too worked up about Draisaitl being in the AHL or being in the NHL or on the wing or at center. If he’s in the AHL, he’ll be the #1 C getting 19 minutes or so per game. At the NHL, as long as he gets 16+ minutes on the wing in the top 6 or as the #3C or flipping between both roles; it doesn’t matter. At bats is what matters now. Just getting out there and playing against the highest competition that doesn’t swamp him so that he can continually improve.

    I said in the week before MacLellan got hired that he’d know exactly how to handle Draisaitl. I even made the comparison to Joe Thornton then. TMac’s recent verbal reflects my prediction. The Joe Thornton role on the SJS PP will be duplicated by Drai in EDM. If that’s our second PP with McDavid on the 1st, we’ll be piling up the 5v4 goals.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Yakimov looks good by this metric but if you go back over the years his even-strength totals were eclipsed by prospects who didn’t make it (Teemu Hartikainen was 66GP, 10-22-32 .484 as an AHL rookie) so it’s probably wise to allow for the possibility Yakimov will be a role player and a complementary offensive contributor.

    I wouldn’t make that assessment just yet.

    It depends on few things:

    1) Did Harski get top 6 5v5 TOI and team mates the whole year?

    2) We know that Big Yak didn’t get that the whole year. Do you have his 5v5 splits? (pre and post Lander)

    If Harski was in the top 6 with better team mates and TOI the whole year and Big Yak is close to his 5v5 rates while spending significant time with less then good line mates and less than decent TOI then it paints a different picture of Big Yak.

    Do you have the answers to 1 & 2?

  3. fifthcartel says:

    Man, it’d be great if the AHL’s website wasn’t still in the stone age.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Yakimov looks good by this metric but if you go back over the years his even-strength totals were eclipsed by prospects who didn’t make it (Teemu Hartikainen was 66GP, 10-22-32 .484 as an AHL rookie) so it’s probably wise to allow for the possibility Yakimov will be a role player and a complementary offensive contributor.

    I wouldn’t make that assessment just yet.

    It depends on few things:

    1) Did Harski get top 6 5v5 TOI and team mates the whole year?

    2) We know that Big Yak didn’t get that the whole year.Do you have his 5v5 splits? (pre and post Lander)

    If Harski was in the top 6 with better team mates and TOI the whole year and Big Yak is close to his 5v5 rates while spending significant time with less then good line mates and less than decent TOI then it paints a different picture of Big Yak.

    Do you have the answers to 1 & 2?

    I don’t think ‘allow for the possibility’ means what you think it means.

  5. speeds says:

    Yakimov was also 19/20 that year, he joined the AHL 1 year post draft while it was 2 years for Hartikainen.

    It’s true that Yakimov was relatively older than Hartikainen at the time of the draft, but he was still a liitle bit younger in actual age plus one year closer to the draft.

  6. RexLibris says:

    fifthcartel:
    Man, it’d be great if the AHL’s website wasn’t still in the stone age.

    I’d just like to pause for a moment to fully appreciate the humour in that statement.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think ‘allow for the possibility’ means what you think it means.

    I get that. Maybe glossed over it a bit, but I get that you’re allowing for more possible outcomes.

    I just think it’s important that when comparing numbers it’s important to compare context.

    Do you have Big Yak’s 5v5 pts/gm splits?

    Was Eric Rogers doing his work when Harksi was a rookie?

  8. Lowetide says:

    CHL Oilers ‏@junior_oilers 55s55 seconds ago

    Sep 5 – Ethan Bear (SEA) had 1 goal 1 assist and was even with 4 PIM vs Victoria in pre-season. VIC 3 – SEA 5

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I get that. Maybe glossed over it a bit, but I get that you’re allowing for more possible outcomes.

    I just think it’s important that when comparing numbers it’s important to compare context.

    Do you have Big Yak’s 5v5 pts/gm splits?

    Was Eric Rogers doing his work when Harksi was a rookie?

    I don’t have his game splits 5×5, no. I don’t believe Eric was doing this for that season, iirc it was last season and this one.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Sep 4 – Caleb Jones (POR) had 1 goal 1 assist and was +1 with 0 PIM vs Spokane in pre-season. SPO 2 – POR 7
    2 retweets 6 favorites

  11. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    Bear and Jones on a ridiculous 2.0 ppg pace for the WHL season.

    #unsustainble.

  12. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    Bear and Jones on a ridiculous 2.0 ppg pace for the WHL season.

    #unsustainble.

    I’m really interested to see Jones in the WHL. The USHL is a difficut league to gauge but the dub has is a league we know well. CanNOT wait for the season!

  13. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I don’t have his game splits 5×5, no. I don’t believe Eric was doing this for that season, iirc it was last season and this one.

    Thanks

  14. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    RexLibris,

    I’m messing with some different metrics to rate CHL Dmen in their draft year (Gmoney is doing the heavy math lifting)

    While Bear wasn’t a top ranked Dman by my metrics, he certainly rated well above where he was taken.

    Good pick.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    RexLibris,

    I’m messing with some different metrics to rate CHL Dmen in their draft year (Gmoney is doing the heavy math lifting)

    While Bear wasn’t a top ranked Dman by my metrics, he certainly rated well above where he was taken.

    Good pick.

    He has a nice range of skills. Bear could wash out (we don’t really know if his shot) because there’s no real strength, but a scout told me his passing ability out of the zone is top drawer.

  16. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: I’m really interested to see Jones in the WHL. The USHL is a difficut league to gauge but the dub has is a league we know well. CanNOT wait for the season!

    Playing for a good team too. Jones will sink or swim.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    RexLibris,

    I’m messing with some different metrics to rate CHL Dmen in their draft year (Gmoney is doing the heavy math lifting)

    While Bear wasn’t a top ranked Dman by my metrics, he certainly rated well above where he was taken.

    Good pick.

    I’ve run through the prospects for the Jets, Canucks, Flames and Oilers prior to Penticton – waiting on roster confirmations now from the Oilers and Flames – and of the four teams the Jets had the strongest prospect group. What stood out for me in the review is the sheer number of USHL players they’ve selected.

    They draft heavily from that league and appear to be heavily rewarded for it.

    It is something we need to start looking at because I believe there is very real value there and a WC rival is taking pains to explore it.

  18. jp says:

    RexLibris: I’ve run through the prospects for the Jets, Canucks, Flames and Oilers prior to Penticton – waiting on roster confirmations now from the Oilers and Flames – and of the four teams the Jets had the strongest prospect group. What stood out for me in the review is the sheer number of USHL players they’ve selected.

    They draft heavily from that league and appear to be heavily rewarded for it.

    It is something we need to start looking at because I believe there is very real value there and a WC rival is taking pains to explore it.

    The Oilers may already be on it with Jones and Vesel taken the past 2 years. The last USHL picks before that were Petry in 2006 and Matt Greene in 2002. That’s a strong argument for the league right there! A little less BCHL and a little more USHL would be a good thing.

  19. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Woodguy: Gmoney is doing the heavy math lifting

    His perietal lobe must be HUGE! I hope he hasn’t lost any agility after this summer’s intense workout regimen.

  20. commonfan14 says:

    v4ance: I don’t believe Klef will see another minute of AHL time for the rest of his career. I think he’s an NHLer for the next 10 years if his health holds up and then onto the KHL/SEL if he wants to play into his 40’s.

    Haven’t heard a single quote from management or seen a single reference written anywhere in the MSM about extending him this summer.

    A little odd, no?

  21. v4ance says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: His perietal lobe must be HUGE! I hope he hasn’t lost any agility after this summer’s intense workout regimen.

    My mental workout this summer:

    McDavid Number #1 (yes!)
    McDavid Number #1 (yes!)
    McDavid Number #1 (yes!)
    McDavid Number #1 (yes!)
    .
    .
    .
    Etc.

  22. SwedishPoster says:

    RexLibris,

    When doing my draft PPG work the USHL had a similar cutoff limit to the CHL, so at least as far as scoring goes the leagues are comparable, however USHL kids tend to be drafted later so I certainly agree that there is value there. The cream of the crop in general comes from the CHL but once past the top kids, the top 10 or so, it’s pretty much a wash imo, though in pure quantity the CHL wins ofc. I do think the CHLers usually are further along on draft day due to canadian youth hockey being what it is with kids getting into ambitious training schemes at an early age, and are often very tactically and physically advanced at 18, but that’s not always a positive when judging upside. You have to take in to account how much better a less educated kid can get with elite training.
    The CHL, the OHL in particular, is still the golden standard, but since it’s so well scouted most of the good picks go early so looking elsewhere sure can be beneficial. Certainly for D imo, since the boxcars are more limited in telling the whole story.

  23. Lloyd B. says:

    We may be onto something regards the star players being tired by playoff time. I for one would enjoy watching these young guns play Exciting Make the Playoff Hockey ( EMPH) than what we have been subject to the past decade. ELPH.

    Then … we can dissect the team to discover what needs to be altered for cup runs. I hope they don’t reduce the playing time of the young guns to keep them fresh for the playoffs only to find themselves as a lottery team yet again.

  24. raventalon40 says:

    Lloyd B.:
    We may be onto something regards the star players being tired by playoff time. I for one would enjoy watching these young guns play Exciting Make the Playoff Hockey ( EMPH) than what we have been subject to the past decade. ELPH.

    Then … we can dissect the team to discover what needs to be altered for cup runs. I hope they don’t reduce the playing time of the young guns to keep them fresh for the playoffs only to find themselves as a lottery team yet again.

    I don’t feel like this is worth debating. Any team that has enough depth to play the style they want to play will solve this internally without worrying about who plays how much. That’s up to the coach. If come playoff time you are out of the running because of a lack of depth, it was probably inevitable. That’s on the GM.

  25. dustrock says:

    Sorry if I missed this last night, but Simmons is saying McDavid will room with Hall.

    I’m fine with that just wondering (1) why Simmons and (2) what does this mean for Ference?

    Could just be that they hit it off so well at Biosteel they decided to room together.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    Don’t the majority of top six NHL forwards,

    A. Skip the AHL
    B. Score around a PPG pace in their 20 year old AHL season?

    If so, predicting Yakimov to be a player that slides into the bottom six in the NHL if he makes it seems about right.

  27. speeds says:

    Bank Shot,

    Depending how you look at age with his birthday, he hasn’t played his 20 year old season yet. Additionally, I’m not sure if the PPG pace works identically for NA and European prospects, has anyone looked at that specifically?

  28. wheatnoil says:

    commonfan14: Haven’t heard a single quote from management or seen a single reference written anywhere in the MSMabout extending him this summer.

    A little odd, no?

    I believe it was Stauffer that reported he expected Klef to be signed by / around training camp for Larsson / Brodin money.

  29. russ99 says:

    Looking forward to a line of Slepyshev – Draisaltl – Chase to destroy those numbers this year.

    Been a while since we had such offensive talent at the AHL level.

  30. commonfan14 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Forgot about that mention – thanks.

    That would be nice.

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