PETER CHIARELLI AND CODY FRANSON

Peter Chiarelli is the most aggressive GM the Oilers have had since Glen Sather. The obvious play for him to make is staying patient, keeping his powder dry, waiting for those walk contracts from Teddy Purcell, Nikita Nikitin and Ben Scrivens to bleed out.

Or is it? We REMAIN in the “Cody Franson anticipation” zone and the price on this player may be dropping. It’s pretty clear he went to market at a tough time and got caught as the last man without a deal this summer. What’s the next step? Probably a two-year deal with the Buffalo Sabres or possibly a one-year contract with a club like the Boston Bruins.

What about Edmonton?

franson graphThis is my original list of free-agent defensemen from July 1. It’s sorted by Corsi 5×5 % and of course Edmonton signed Sekera to a long-term deal on day one free agency. Under normal circumstances adding Franson might be overkill but consider:

  • The price is no doubt less than it was
  • The term appears to be established
  • The need remains a very big crevice
  • There may be time to trade a roster player to make room

We’ve been down this road before but it HAS to be on Peter Chiarelli’s mind. There’s a useful solution (with some risk) out there and available and the only real risks are that second year and being able to deal off the extra defenseman (who might be Nikitin but you’d have to at least entertain the idea of dealing Mark Fayne if necessary—Nikitin may not stay healthy or have trade value).

HE WAS GARBAGE IN NASHVILLE!

In 23 GP with Nashville (I’m reading War On Ice here) and was 0-1-1 with a PDO of 97% and a Corsi For 5×5 % of 57.12. I have him playing third-pairing minutes and a 57.55% Offensive Zone-start. Cherry minutes, no points but I don’t see these numbers being SO bad you’d frame this issue in a way that suggests the man has no value. And if you’re doing it for a 21-game sample then you’re going to have to be convincing in your arguments.

OILERS DEPTH AND PAIRINGS WITH FRANSON

  • Sekera—Franson
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nikitin—Fayne
  • Ference—Gryba

That puts Brandon Davidson on waivers, sends Griffin Reinhart and Darnell Nurse to the farm and Martin Gernat is probably bagging groceries at the Piggly Wiggly. If you sign Cody Franson, you might have to walk Justin Schultz next summer.

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52 Responses to "PETER CHIARELLI AND CODY FRANSON"

  1. oliveoilers says:

    If signing Franson wouldn’t light a fire under Jultz’ ass, I don’t know what would.

    It would make that D look a little better though.

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    oliveoilers,

    keep whichever of Franson and Schultz proves their worth, I’d like those odds a lot better than just Jultz.

    best case, he proves he belongs in the top 4 long term or they flip him at the deadline for a decent haul

    the defence as is, is still weak weak

  3. oliveoilers says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I’m not certain the D is as bad as all that. Let’s give TMac a little time to work with them.

  4. ashley says:

    I can’t find the link right now, but about a month ago there was an interview with him indicating he had a number of offers, but wasn’t in a hurry to sign anything.

    Earlier in the year, there was this:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/cody-franson-wants-to-be-a-leaf-again-should-they-want-him-though/

    indicating that he wanted to go back to Toronto. So I’m thinking it’s a player thing. He wants to play in only a handful of cities, and one in particular, but isn’t getting any love. He probably has had a half dozen offers which didn’t suit.

    I can’t blame him. If you’re in your 20’s Toronto is a great place to live and the fanbase must be a lot of fun to play in front of compared to some of the more casual US fanbases.

  5. ashley says:

    Ah, here it is:

    https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/07/21/cody-franson-on-possible-return-to-toronto-im-still-hopeful-thats-a-possibility/

    It looks like he has suitors, but wants term. It also sounds like he is asking for a significant raise. He also wants to be in a position to win a cup, especially if it’s a short term deal.

    That’s a lot of wants to fill.

  6. pts2pndr says:

    If price point and term are realistic and the player is as good as some people on this site seem to think why is he still on the market? I think wait and see with Shultz and the young D seem to be a better course of action for now! Patience could pay off long term. I know it is a hard sell in this market.

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    We’ve been down this road before but it HAS to be on Peter Chiarelli’s mind. There’s a useful solution (with some risk) out there and available and the only real risks are that second year and being able to deal off the extra defenseman (who might be Nikitin but you’d have to at least entertain the idea of dealing Mark Fayne if necessary—Nikitin may not stay healthy or have trade value).

    I’m having trouble with this paragraph.
    In the 2nd year of a Franson contract Niki Niki is gone, long gone.
    Yes?

    Or
    Franson over Fayne is not a trade up.
    At least not so you’d notice.

  8. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Cue Verdad, again. (sigh)

  9. godot10 says:

    Why is Lowetide trying to ruin my summer?

    Franson doesn’t fit in the short term, medium term, or long term hockey-wise or cap-wise.

    Chiarelli brought in Gryba for a reason. Schultz for one year is a much better bet than Franson for one year. Chiarelli and McLellan will want to see what they have in Schultz. Chiarelli already has two deadweight contracts on the blue in Nikitin and Ference. Plus, Nurse and Reinhart are close, and the Oilers should get a D who can baby sit them, rather than have the rookie have to baby sit the veteran, which would be the case with Franson.

    Franson CANNOT carry his own weight. That was what his time in Nashville demonstrated, and why he has become “toxic”. Petry went to Montreal and carried way above his weight. Sekera went to LA and carried above his weight.

    Franson represents such low aspirations. It doesn’t represent any upside over what is already here. It just adds complexity and difficulty in sorting out the defense.

    I can’t really see any difference between Nikitin and Franson. They are basically the same player.

    Where is the mid to long term value for money, or wins over what the Oilers have now (Schultz, Nikitin, Nurse, Reinhart, Davidson, Ference, who are his competition).

    Even if he comes on a one year deal and plays well (he won’t since he sucks), then he is not going to be value for money when he asks to renegotiate.

    One is better off experimenting with the existing alternatives till you find one who seizes the job. The Oilers have six guys competing for one spot already.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10: Why is Lowetide trying to ruin my summer?

    Summer is over, Bud

  11. flyfish1168 says:

    Toronto players are always over hyped and they too are a loosing team. I just don’t see Franson as help. I can’t remember one player or coach from the Toronto system helping us out side of keeping us in the lottery. 🙂

  12. bcoil says:

    LT you have got to seek help on the Franson fixation he is not that good .In fact 30 other GMs don’t seem to think he is that good .I think Rhienhart is better then he is and in 3 months Nurse will be better .So why tie up cap space for two years and space for some one that is going to get passed within 4 months ??Doesn’t make sense.

  13. speeds says:

    LT (or anyone), if you could sign any UFA remaining on the market, but only one, who would you pick?

  14. Ryan says:

    flyfish1168:
    Toronto players are always over hyped and they too are a loosing team. I just don’t see Franson as help. I can’t remember one player or coach from the Toronto system helping us out side of keeping us in the lottery.

    That’s because they don’t know how to keep their game tight.

  15. flyfish1168 says:

    Ryan: That’s because they don’t know how to keep their game tight.

    I call it the center of the universe media machine and their bed time is 1030 pm EST.

  16. LostBoy says:

    speeds:
    LT (or anyone), if you could sign any UFA remaining on the market, but only one, who would you pick?

    He’s not really on the market, having accepted a PTO with the Jackets, but I would have had a lot of time for James Sheppard on a value contract in a 4th line utility role. But I don’t see any real fits that are worth the baggage. The next player movement is more likely via trade, even though we’re so used to GMs who won’t or can’t make trades in TC or early season that it feels impossible.

  17. rich says:

    LT you are consistent and you are persistent on Franson.

    But he does not represent value. He played 3rd pairing minutes, getting cherry o-zone starts and did not put up points in NAS.

    He was healthy scratched in the playoffs and only entered when Weber was hurt.

    He played the fewest minutes once he was inserted.

    He is too slow to play first line minutes.

    The Oilers already have all the 5/6/7 d-men they need.

    Pass.

  18. Johnny Larue says:

    godot10:
    Why is Lowetide trying to ruin my summer?

    Franson doesn’t fit in the short term, medium term, or long term hockey-wise or cap-wise.

    Chiarelli brought in Gryba for a reason.Schultz for one year is a much better bet than Franson for one year.Chiarelli and McLellan will want to see what they have in Schultz.Chiarelli already has two deadweight contracts on the blue in Nikitin and Ference.Plus, Nurse and Reinhart are close, and the Oilers should get a D who can baby sit them, rather than have the rookie have to baby sit the veteran, which would be the case with Franson.

    Franson CANNOT carry his own weight.That was what his time in Nashville demonstrated, and why he has become “toxic”.Petry went to Montreal and carried way above his weight.Sekera went to LA and carried above his weight.

    Franson represents such low aspirations.It doesn’t represent any upside over what is already here.It just adds complexity and difficulty in sorting out the defense.

    I can’t really see any difference between Nikitin and Franson.They are basically the same player.

    Where is the mid to long term value for money, or wins over what the Oilers have now (Schultz, Nikitin, Nurse, Reinhart, Davidson, Ference, who are his competition).

    Even if he comes on a one year deal and plays well (he won’t since he sucks), then he is not going to be value for money when he asks to renegotiate.

    One is better off experimenting with the existing alternatives till you find one who seizes the job.The Oilers have six guys competing for one spot already.

    I agree 100% Franson is not neede we have a log jam on defence and we have a Shultz who brings the same qualities. Let’s see how Shultz does under T Zmac . I don’t know why LT is obsessed with Franson I think it would be a huge mistake

  19. BlueNoteNorth says:

    flyfish1168:
    I can’t remember one player or coach from the Toronto system helping us out side of keeping us in the lottery.

    Jason Smith comes to mind.

    But I get your point. The recent Marlies group did not help.

  20. verdad2.0 says:

    kudos Lowetide
    Franson acquistion drives positive change for the Oilers
    Relegates NSF to the garbage dump, moves closer the possibility of actual competitiveness this year
    He should have done it months ago

    But signing Franson doesn’t obviate the need for a genuine #1 defenseman
    That can be acquired if the obvious Oiler assets are offered up
    Defense is the only path the NHL credibility and competitiveness

  21. verdad2.0 says:

    Detest those voices on this blog that still are willing to shill for Schultz
    Look at the last play of the last season for the Oilers
    It encapsulates everything detestable about Schultz
    He is not a defenseman
    Addition via subtrraction

  22. Hammers says:

    Face it we have 2 top D with 2 in minors and adding Franson gives us another 4-7 type D . Save the choice and see what’s on waiver wire or a trade acquisition .

  23. Kris11 says:

    verdad2.0:
    Detest those voices on this blog that still are willing to shill for Schultz

    I detest cauliflower.

    And Belgium.

  24. "Steve Smith" says:

    Kris11,

    Really? I’m fairly indifferent to cauliflower.

  25. stush18 says:

    Well I support the idea LT, even if others here do not. You can’t convince me that franson would not be in our top four d this year, and likely for most of next.

    The asking price is low on him, in term and dollars. Those that are 100% against him are being narrow minded.

  26. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Kris11,

    Really?I’m fairly indifferent to cauliflower.

    I’ve discovered green beans again. Love them now, after a childhood of hating them. Perhaps there’s hope for the radish.

  27. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Well I support the idea LT, even if others here do not. You can’t convince me that franson would not be in our top four d this year, and likely for most of next.

    The asking price is low on him, in term and dollars. Those that are 100% against him are being narrow minded.

    Well, we should know sooner or later. Training camp rosters should be out by this time next week.

  28. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    I hated green beans as a child too, but that’s because they were always canned, and canned green (or, even more so, yellow) beans are disgusting. Fresh is obviously best, but failing that frozen is about ninety-seven times better than canned.

  29. tcho says:

    verdad2.0:

    But signing Franson doesn’t obviate the need for a genuine #1 defenseman
    That can be acquired if the obvious Oiler assets are offered up
    Defense is the only path the NHL credibility and competitiveness

    Who do you think the Oilers should target in trade as a #1 D?

  30. Lowetide says:

    tcho: Who do you think the Oilers should target in trade as a #1 D?

    GFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!! GACK!!! REJECT ALL SIGNALSSS!!!!!!

  31. G Money says:

    So I made a fair bit of progress on my data munging programs this weekend. Shitty weather has its perks…

    One of the interesting offshoots: I can now generate CF% for all five man units for the Oilers last year.

    Anyone interested in seeing that? Mulling on if its worth a post.

  32. G Money says:

    Top 5 (EV) CF% five man units, min 20 events:

    PITLICK JULTZ FRASER LANDER K-BOMB CF% 76.2% (21 events)
    FAYNE JOENSUU JIMI GORDON NIKITIN CF% 75.0% (20 events)
    FAYNE PURCELL FRASER LANDER NIKITIN CF% 70.0% (20 events)
    FAYNE YAK AULIE ARCO PERRON CF% 67.9% (28 events)
    FAYNE EBERLE POO SLIMSHDY NUGE CF% 61.7% (47 events)

    Top 5 (EV) highest event five man units, with CF% (#2 is an interesting result):

    EBERLE JULTZ POO K-BOMB NUGE CF% 53.5% (230 events)
    ROYSIE YAK PURCELL JULTZ K-BOMB CF% 53.9% (180 events)
    PETRY HALL EBERLE TCAF NUGE CF% 52.5% (141 events)
    EBERLE PURCELL JULTZ K-BOMB NUGE CF% 46.7% (120 events)
    HALL FAYNE EBERLE NIKITIN NUGE CF% 48.1% (104 events)

  33. G Money says:

    Worst 5 man units at EV (min 20 events):

    PETRY ROYSIE YAK TCAF HAMILTON CF% 34.4% (32 events)
    HALL FAYNE EBERLE K-BOMB NUGE CF% 34.4% (32 events)
    HALL FAYNE PURCELL K-BOMB NUGE CF% 33.3% (21 events)
    PETRY JOENSUU JIMI GORDON NIKITIN CF% 28.6% (21 events)
    PETRY YAK TCAF ARCO POO CF% 27.6% (29 events)

  34. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    I think that already exists. It’s for all teams in the NHL and goes back to 2007.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wjUFFVKNO9DoNCGOds0fexddCcRig77e77qWNKcxOK8/edit#gid=1538092369

    Edit: Though I agree, it’s pretty cool! Just don’t want you to go through a ton of extra work.

  35. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Ha, I should have known. I did a quick search before I generated it, but nothing came up.

    Oh well, it’s data thrown off by the general data munging work. And it’s good to have the confirmation – his results match with mine!

    Do you know who generated that data? I may have to ping him – he’s cracked one problem that I’m still wrestling with, which is TOI calculations.

  36. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    All the same, hats off to you for the work.

    Wish I knew enough coding (and, let’s be honest, had the drive) to do the same.

  37. Yeti says:

    Lowetide: I’ve discovered green beans again. Love them now, after a childhood of hating them. Perhaps there’s hope for the radish.

    You know who just loves his green beans? Oliver Ekman Larsson. He can’t get enough of them. Keeps a bag of them under the bench for mid-game snacks. Franson is like Obama – he’s all over arugula.

  38. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    Ha, I should have known.I did a quick search before I generated it, but nothing came up.

    Oh well, it’s data thrown off by the general data munging work.And it’s good to have the confirmation – his results match with mine!

    Do you know who generated that data?I may have to ping him – he’s cracked one problem that I’m still wrestling with, which is TOI calculations.

    It’s @DTMAboutHeart .

    He puts out some pretty interesting stuff on Twitter and is worth a follow, I think.

    Good luck on your coding! I have no help to offer you!

  39. AsiaOil says:

    LT – got to show some patience – Franson is a sub-optimal solution – no need to settle for him this season when the real solution will be available next summer.

  40. dangilitis says:

    I agree with all those who think Franson is not a good medium and long-term solution.
    He is a superior short-term solution to most of the current D.

    LT, surprised to hear you say that you would trade Fayne if need be to clear space to sign Franson. I am not so sure Franson is a clear upgrade, they are very different players and that would be far too risky for me to pull the trigger on if I were in that position. And if Nikitin is moveable, does anyone here honestly think Chiarelli would be holding onto him? Nikitin trade with less money coming back for less than 1 year is always the right move, independent of what you do with the money saved..

  41. dangilitis says:

    I am in agreement that Franson > Schultz, now and very likely 3 years from now. But I don’t think that getting Franson here would mean that Schultz or Nikitin are traded. This is the summer of frugal spending, and those 2 are way overpaid, even relative to UFAs this season. I have to believe that a smart GM would go after Franson if he was confident that he could move one of Nikitin, Schultz, Ference. So my guess is that he can’t even give them away, while other moves to free space (e.g. trading a forward or more promising D-man) would be ill-advised.

    verdad2.0:
    Detest those voices on this blog that still are willing to shill for Schultz
    Look at the last play of the last season for the Oilers
    It encapsulates everything detestable about Schultz
    He is not a defenseman
    Addition via subtrraction

  42. GCW_69 says:

    Franson should be a boost to the power play, certainly an improvement over Schultz. If Franson signs here, I don’t think Chiarelli waits until next summer to resolve the Schultz vs Franson question. One will be gone at the deadline, and that’s not a bad thing.

  43. Kmart99 says:

    G Money,

    It’s crazy how well Klef and Jultz seemed to work together. If someone else can click well with Sekera *cough* NURSE *cough* we are off to the races.

    Nice to see that Klefbom and Schultz did well behind the Pouliot line AND the Yak line.

    You have put your coding and stats skills to great use. I’d love it if you posted the best 5-man units after each game!! Request!

  44. russ99 says:

    The only way I see Franson here is if Nikitin comes to camp with back issues and requires an IR stint. If the Oilers put him on LTIR, it would clear cap room for Franson.

    As for the those calling for dumping Schultz and singing Franson:

    1 player is 25, and has one more restricted year after this one that’s at $3.9M, and has room for growth.

    1 player is 28, and is still on the market because he’s not budging from his expected 3/$4.5-5M contract, and is almost as poor in the D-zone as Schultz, which is why Nashville and Toronto didn’t sign him.

    I know which one I’d go with, and even if you’ve written off Schultz as player, you can’t deny that rolling with him one more year gives us the most flexibility to add a much better player than Franson before McDavid’s contract goes through the roof.

  45. GCW_69 says:

    russ99: is almost as poor in the D-zone as Schultz, which is why Nashville and Toronto didn’t sign him.

    Evidence? Franson’s Corsi Rel has been positive every year he has been in the league. Schultz had his first positive corsi Rel last season. In terms of physical play, Franson was second on the Leafs in hits per game. Not sure Schultz even had one.

  46. admiralmark says:

    You had me at “walk Justin Schultz.”

  47. GCW_69 says:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

    Worth a read if you are relying on the eye test or rumour regarding Franson.

  48. Waiting on Stamkos; Stars goaltending competition; Kopitar's consistency (Puck Headlines) - FMSports.org says:

    […] • The Edmonton Oilers fans remain in the Cody Franson anticipation zone … because of Peter Chiarelli’s aggressiveness of course. [Lowe Tide] […]

  49. Waiting on Stamkos; Stars goaltending competition; Kopitar's consistency (Puck Headlines) | Jeffery Lipton - freelance writer says:

    […] • The Edmonton Oilers fans remain in the Cody Franson anticipation zone … because of Peter Chiarelli’s aggressiveness of course. [Lowe Tide] […]

  50. rickithebear says:

    That puts Brandon Davidson on waivers, sends Griffin Reinhart and Darnell Nurse to the farm
    12-13 to 14-15: 214 Dmen
    #192 petry 17.43 HSCA/60
    #200 J. schultz 17.96
    #204 Fanson 18.07

    Franson’s Corsi Rel has been positive every year.
    Kessel; JVR; Kadri; Bozak; 40.3 % ZS

    Franson playing with Seth jones in a Box protect system.
    43.78 CA/60
    Franson in NSH 11.70 HSCA/60

  51. Jaxon says:

    Wow! I would have signed him for 3.325 per for 2 years in a heartbeat! Franson’s agent sucks! The Oilers seem a better fit and you’d think they would have paid as much or better. Edmonton and Buffalo are both rebuilding teams that are about to turn north. He’s Canadian and Edmonton is closer to his hometown. I think the Sabres have a better right-side D with Bogosian, Franson, Ristolainen, Pysyk & Sanguinetti VS Fayne, Schultz & Gryba, especially with Schultz in a do or die season, so he’d have less competition for a job. Did they not even approach him?

    Maybe Buffalo is the destination for Purcell at some point this season. Purcell and Musil to BUF for one of their right wing prospects Nicolas Baptiste, Justin Bailey or Hudson Fasching and right D Mark Pysyk. Right now, they only have one NHLer on RW in 36 year old Brian Gionta. You’re not going to get much for Purcell so I think that would be a damn good haul.

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