STUCK INSIDE OF MOBILE WITH THE MEMPHIS BLUES AGAIN

Anton Slepyshev! If you’re looking for one name who impressed more than expected this camp (among the kids), the speedy Russian winger with good size and a quick release is a stone alone this morning. After the Oilers sent down 18 last night, the competition for jobs is both less populated and more intense. Let’s have a look.

OILERS ROSTER TODAY

oilers roster sep 27

The cuts last night put a few things into clearer view. I think we can make a case for Leon Draisaitl making the team and serving as both winger and No. 5 center (Matt Hendricks can also fill that 5C role). Brandon Davidson remaining this deep into camp suggests there’s at least some consideration for him breaking camp with the big team—perhaps at the expense of both Griffin Reinhart and Darnell Nurse. Trading Davidson may also be an option.

The goalie battle is the most interesting one at this point. Anders Nilsson is signed to a friendly deal and he’s under control next season (RFA), so there’s a long range issue here along with the here and now. Are Nilsson and Scrivens equal? If they are, contract status could be enough to send Scrivens away. We should also talk about the possibility of starting the season with 3G, 8D, and 12F. It could happen.

WHO GETS CUT?

First, let’s assume that Iiro Pakarinen, Mitch Moroz, Dillon Simpson and Joey Laleggia begin the season on IR. That leaves 15F, 10D and 3G left—28 men. Based purely on performance, the final five moves would be:

  • R Teddy Purcell (IR)
  • L Luke Gazdic
  • D Darnell Nurse
  • D Eric Gryba
  • G Ben Scrivens

I don’t believe that’s going to happen, for obvious reasons. If I’m guessing today about the cuts, I’ll go Anton Slepyshev, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson and Griffin Reinhart. That leaves a roster of 13F, 7D and 3G—and that may last until the club is certain Talbot—Nilsson is a workable tandem. If Purcell goes on IR, you might see Reinhart stay among the group I’ve mentioned.

THE WAIVER WIRE

At 10 this morning, we’ll hear the laundry list of waiver eligibles, this time including a few Oilers players. Let’s have a quick look at each of them.

  • L Ryan Hamilton (Pre-season: 1GP, 0-1-1). I knew he would have a difficult time making the roster, McLellan’s Oilers are going to be fast trains. Hamilton has a lot of good things in his game but that one thing has him here.
  • R Andrew Miller (Pre-season: 3GP, 1-1-2). I think he played very well, but more impressive performances by men like Leon Draisaitl, Anton Slepyshev and even Lauri Korpikoski cut him out of the team photo. He could be called up during the season, and there’s a chance he gets claimed on waivers (although it seems a distant bell).
  • R Tyler Pitlick (Pre-season: 3GP, 0-0-0). He was not close to good enough. Pitlick’s performance this TC is a lot like his pro career, looks good on the ice without much ever happening. As difficult as his rookie AHL season was (.371 points-per-game) the real story is what happened after (or what didn’t). Hunter Shinkaruk (.419 points-per-game his rookie season) had a similar rookie AHL experience but the expectations are high (as they were for Pitlick) and one assumes he’ll find a way to make himself useful. Pitlick may need (in the words of Craig MacTavish) a second opinion.
  • D Brad Hunt (Pre-season: 1GP, 0-0-0). He got lost in the flood. Edmonton has a lot of defensemen now, including puck movers like Joey Laleggia—who may make life miserable for Hunt in the AHL this season as the team looks at their new offensive defender. Hunt is unlikely to be claimed on waivers but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a minor league deal sending him to another AHL club.

LUKE GAZDIC!

We have this conversation every fall, get rid of the enforcer. The Edmonton Oilers believe this player type has value and I don’t see Peter Chiarelli or Todd McLellan causing a change in the weather. I’ve made my views on this known (there’s really no evidence this kind of player helps in any area) but that and $1.50 will get you an extra-large coffee. If Luke Gazdic doesn’t make this roster, I’ll fall off my chair.

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127 Responses to "STUCK INSIDE OF MOBILE WITH THE MEMPHIS BLUES AGAIN"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    If it prevents us from blowing a mid round pick for a knuckledragger halfway through the season I’m ok with keeping Gadzooks. He does make the rest of the team more comfortable as they have stated multiple times. Even if he is not very effective on the ice. The little dogs bark louder when the big dog is around to back them up. A lot of trash talking happens during a game and it’s easier for the Eberles to feel comfortable when you can send Gazdic out the next shift going Cmon I thought there was some tough guys out here, where did they all go.

    Poor Pitlick, injuries are tough. I swear the guy was going to have a career and still think he was a good pick. Unfortunately father luck had other plans for him

  2. frjohnk says:

    Nurse and Reinhart as 1st pairing in the AHL

    They probably play 22 to 24 minutes a night against the best AHL competition.
    In practice they go against Tyler Pitlick, Ryan Hamilton, Bogdan Yakimov, etc.
    Learn from coaches that are at the AHL level.

    Nurse and Reinhart as 3rd pairing in the NHL

    Probably play 16 minutes a night against competition that is better than the AHL.
    In practice, they go against McDavid, Hall, RNH, Eberle, Hendricks, etc.
    Learn from an actual veteran NHL coach.

    I think they are both good enough to be on the Oilers right now. Ference is done. Nikitin is still Nikiting. Gryba, who I like for his GRIT per 60, has mobility issues.
    And I also believe their development path will be better served with the Oilers.

    They are the future of our defense. Future should start now.

  3. oliveoilers says:

    The Oilers management has to be careful they don’t paint themselves into a corner with regards to Sleppy.

    We have the verbal on earning a roster spot, that nobody is safe. Would be a shame if the Oilers didn’t back this up and made a decision based on something other than winning.

    Personally, I don’t buy the ‘Getting Used To the Ice’ narrative that some guys are saying should be the reason Sleppy should be sent down. I can only go off other sports examples, having never played on Euro ice, but it took us two minutes to get our heads to switch from outdoor to indoor soccer, rugby 15s to 7s, chess to checkers etc.

    Give the guy a shot. Re-enforce the message. Though curiously, Purcell’s injury might make it real easy…

  4. blainer says:

    Really was expecting Nilsson to play well and he has… Agreed on the contract and one has to believe that Nilsson is picked up on waivers where Scrivens most likely won’t. Just really don’t have any confidence in Scrivens and I bet a lot of the players don’t either. Most impressed with our 5th 1st overall pick albeit from the KHL in Slappy.. he will be up and playing full time after xmas.

  5. book¡je says:

    If MacT or Tambellini were still in charge, we would almost certainly be entering the season three goalies. I expect Chiarelli is going send Scrivens down or away at the end of camp. I am just glad we have someone who can/will make a decision.

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    If and when Mitch Moroz is ready maybe another year or two away, Luke will use his force with the Oilers.

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    book¡je: If MacT or Tambellini were still in charge, we would almost certainly be entering the season three goalies.

    Tambo, yes.

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    It is very difficult to project what any player might do at the NHL level when the competition so far has been a blend of AHL/CHL players! I would suggest that in virtually every game so far the Oil have iced a team with more NHL players than the opposition. So while Slepyshev and Nilsson have stood out so far it’s hard to award them a spot on the roster.

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    Clarkenstein: So while Slepyshev and Nilsson have stood out so far it’s hard to award them a spot on the roster.

    Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

  10. wheatnoil says:

    I have no problem with Slepyshev being sent down, as good as he’s looked. Remember what Chiarelli said before TC started, except it was alluding to Nurse. Paraphrasing, the first preseason games are not like the last preseason games, which are not like the first 10 games and so on.

    Slepyshev looked skilled but a bit lost at the rookie tournament and, as McLellan points out, has grown every game. However, at this point, so does the competition. 20-30 games in the AHL, to make sure he’s adjusted to the smaller ice surface would be a non-bold but prudent move.

    Plus, with every day that goes by, the cap hit for Purcell drops, making him easier to trade. If Slappy is knocking the socks off in the AHL, it’ll be easier to make room for him.

  11. Woodguy says:

    LT, you can’t even get a small coffee in Maidstone for $1.50

  12. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    If MacT or Tambellini were still in charge, we would almost certainly be entering the season three goalies.I expect Chiarelli is going send Scrivens down or away at the end of camp. I am just glad we have someone who can/will make a decision.

    No, because neither would have added Nilsson.

    Also,

    Nilsson makes the team and Scrivens doesn’t.

  13. RMGS says:

    Barring more injuries or trades, my guess is they’re keeping 8D with Reinhart in and Darnell out. Gazdic and Leon will be part of the 13F with Klinkhammer the one most dependent on Purcell’s injury. If Nilsson at least matches Scrivens the rest of camp, it’s a Talbot-Nilsson tandem.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Slappy needs to play in the AHL until his instincts on the ice are all “small ice” instincts.

    No looping and circling. Stops and starts and getting to position asap.

    Injuries will have him up here at some point.

    Also,

    Reinhart makes the team on merit and because he’s Chia’s guy.

    Same for Nilsson.

    It’s a new day.

  15. dustrock says:

    They might be the very last cuts, after playing against regular NHL competition.

    Other than Gryba, all of Chiarelli’s acquisitions have looked great so far.

  16. blainer says:

    leadfarmer:
    If it prevents us from blowing a mid round pick for a knuckledragger halfway through the season I’m ok with keeping Gadzooks.He does make the rest of the team more comfortable as they have stated multiple times.Even if he is not very effective on the ice.The little dogs bark louder when the big dog is around to back them up.A lot of trash talking happens during a game and it’s easier for the Eberles to feel comfortable when you can send Gazdic out the next shift going Cmon I thought there was some tough guys out here, where did they all go.

    Poor Pitlick, injuries are tough.I swear the guy was going to have a career and still think he was a good pick.Unfortunately father luck had other plans for him

    See this is where I have a problem with having an enforcer. Cheap shot players like Marchand etc don’t fight players like Gazdic.. they are pussies.. let Hendricks take care of the kids. he can hold his own and can retaliate on the cheap shots as well as knows how to play the game… I am tired of watching the team get trapped in the Dzone when players like Gazdic are on the ice. it is time to put winning ahead of playing enforcers.

  17. oliveoilers says:

    Clarkenstein:
    It is very difficult to project what any player might do at the NHL level when the competition so far has been a blend of AHL/CHL players! I would suggest that in virtually every game so far the Oil have iced a team with more NHL players than the opposition.So while Slepyshev and Nilsson have stood out so far it’s hard to award them a spot on the roster.

    Not true. You’re looking at it that these guys have to shine against NHL calibre opposition. Another way to look at it is the fact that a few NHL players are doing poorly against the AHL/CHL opposition.

    You look at some stories from other teams about how the management is at odds with the player, and you wonder how relations and communication can be so bad. Why, our very own situation with Petry is a good example: Young players last year weren’t the only ones gifted a roster spot. Petry had to watch as Schultz and NN and TCAF were given his lunch money, then he was ‘challenged’ because he wasn’t CFP.

    One way you can avoid these situations is by having open and honest competition, and when somebody new outperforms a more established player, you put your money were your mouth is.

    That way, you don’t have the beginning of ‘well, fuck, the boss said if I played well, I’d have a place’.

  18. Soup Fascist says:

    Stauffer was pretty clear during the broadcast yesterday that he did not think the Oilers would enter the season with three tenders. Thinking he has heard some scuttlebutt in this regard.

    Chiarelli has no ties to Scrivens and brought in Nilsson. Barring a huge gap in performance between the two from now to final cuts – would not be shocked to see “the Professor” moved for pucks or waived.

    Keeping Drai and Sleppy (along with McD) does keep us very young. Expect Ray Ferraro to be up in arms – and he is often right more than wrong. Add Nurse and Griff to the mix and we are looking at, for all intents and purposes – 25 % of your starting lineup being rookies.

    I agree those five are all more talented players than we have now – but – yikes! They can’t all stay.

  19. wheatnoil says:

    Does anyone know which team(s) have a waiver-exempt goalie in their top 2? Those teams (barring injury) would be the only ones at risk of picking off Scrivens (and Nilsson) on waivers. Everyone else would have to risk losing their own guy to pick Scrivens up.

  20. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: Slappy needs to play in the AHL until his instincts on the ice are all “small ice” instincts.
    No looping and circling. Stops and starts and getting to position asap.

    I have heard that they also coach the ‘Enigmatic Russian’ out of you in the AHL.

  21. J-Bo says:

    Best 3 for 1 ever: Ference, Nikitin, & Gryba for Byfuglien
    Hahaha, talk about never happen! How nice does this look though:
    Sekera – Byfuglien
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Reinhart – Fayne
    Davidson

    or eventually…
    Klefbom – Sekera
    Nurse – Byfuglien
    Reinhart – Schultz/Fayne
    Davidson

  22. Soup Fascist says:

    oliveoilers: I have heard that they also coach the ‘Enigmatic Russian’ out of you in the AHL.

    Bruce Yakimson begs to differ.

  23. Ryan says:

    J-Bo:
    Best 3 for 1 ever: Ference, Nikitin, & Gryba for Byfuglien
    Hahaha, talk about never happen! How nice does this look though:
    Sekera – Byfuglien
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Reinhart – Fayne
    Davidson

    or eventually…
    Klefbom – Sekera
    Nurse – Byfuglien
    Reinhart – Schultz/Fayne
    Davidson

    The Jets are rumored to be shopping Byfuglien…

    Luke Schenn (RHS) is also available though he appears to have been outplayed by Nick Schultz last season.

  24. wheatnoil says:

    I wonder if Chia can swing a deal with Boston. They need D, but they also need a G. If I’m reading it right, they have Rask and then just Gustavson on a PTO. They have a hit of cap room for Scrivens. Coming back to the Oilers is probably just cap room and a late draft pick. Chiarelli probably retains 25% to make it work.

    (Not that I’m 100% convinced that Nilsson > Scrivens at this point, but just looking at options.)

  25. Johnny says:

    “We should also talk about the possibility of starting the season with 3G, 8D, and 12F. It could happen.”

    Those days are gone. We have actual hockey management now.

  26. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil,

    Dustin Byfuglien will be the biggest name in any trade rumors with the Bruins, and had been even before Seidenberg went down. But the price will be high for the All-Star defenseman: it starts with a package similar to the first round pick, roster player (Martin Jones) and top prospect (Colin Miller) that the Bruins received for Milan Lucic, and is probably higher now given that the B’s are perceived to be in desperate straits.

    There are other names readily available right now, of course, and most of them aren’t very palatable: Nikita Nikitin, Rob Scuderi, Luke Schenn and Andrew MacDonald just to name a few. It may be that Sweeney and the Bruins will need to get into the regular season to evaluate what they’ve got, and hope the whiff of desperation dissipates.

    http://www.csnne.com/boston-bruins/haggerty-too-many-question-marks-seidenberg-gone

  27. Soup Fascist says:

    Ryan: The Jets are rumored to be shopping Byfuglien…

    Luke Schenn (RHS) is also available though he appears to have been outplayed by Nick Schultz last season.

    Luke Schenn has the footspeed of a geranium. We have too many of those guys already. Big Buff would be intriguing, warts and all, but you can’t pay too dearly for one year of a guy you are going to have a difficult time signing – UFA at the end of the year.

  28. BlueNoteNorth says:

    I believe Nurse would benefit with time in the AHL. Do not see him starting with the big club.

    And no Buf please. Too often he goes on a walkabout during critical points in the game. He is UFA at the end of the season and I am not surprised that the Jets are shopping him.

  29. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting story here

    http://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-trying-to-pawn-off-nikita-nikitin/

    I hope it is successful

  30. fifthcartel says:

    This seems like a fry cry from the days when Khaira and Yakimov were the last cuts.

  31. PokeCheck says:

    As someone who has first-hand experience in a 3 goaltender situation at the Junior level, I can readily say that going with 3 goaltenders is a terrible idea. It shows indecision on the part of the organization and this undermines everyone’s confidence, and particularly the personal confidence of your goaltenders. Even worse though is that instead of your goalies working on solidifying their game, say trying to improve their rebound control or figuring out why they’ve been getting beat to the blocker side recently, they’ll spend almost every opportunity, every drill, every practice, every outing trying to *look better* than the other two guys. Over time, this permanent “tryout-mode” can lead to all three performing below expectations.

    If the Oilers are unsure of their tandem by the start of the season, they should send down the guy they feel they have the best chance of recalling successfully. Based on current perceptions and salary cap would be Scrivens. Competition is a good thing, something you definitely want between your tandem, but a three way battle can quickly become an unhealthy competition.

  32. Bar_Qu says:

    Hanging on to 8 D to start the season and letting the young ‘uns play in the AHL makes the Oil a better, stronger candidate for trades as other teams low on D depth have early season injuries. No way all the “vet, character D” the Oil have last in Edm until Christmas. Then you have the young guys come up and play with the minutes they need. This is a good plan for the blueline unless someone comes knocking at the door.

    For the forwards tho, let Slappy take the injured Purcell’s spot on the roster. There is a guy who doesn’t need lots of minutes but to get a taste of the intensity of NHL play without the pressure of top 3 line time. If he gets sent back down because he can’t handle it, well then, there’s always Klinkhammer or Gazdic to pick up the “slack”.

    This is the first season in forever where it feels like there is depth at most positions and it is a wonderful feeling.

  33. Mr. D. says:

    Was at the game in Toowtown. As far as the defense I think they all played well. Gryba and Ference did a great job in their own end and got the puck out very regularly. Not sure what the issues were with them but having played a reasonably decent level of hockey (CIS), they were solid and if there were corsi stats that would prove it. Yes they were not mistake free but I’ll bet anybody that Gryba is not sitting for anybody. He’s beastly in the crease, great in the defensive zone as is surprising me in the offensive zone. People who actually know the game know that you need solid defender…look what happened to us last year. It’s all about BALANCE.

  34. Woogie63 says:

    Two tricky moves important to get right,

    We need to hold on to all three goalies until we understand which tandem will give us NHL goaltending most nights. The sample size is small on all three so so, we need more time to get this right.

    Without Reinhart and Gryba on the opening day line up, I don’t see how this team is heavier than last years edition.

  35. Ryan says:

    I’ve been curious about Gustafsson. So far, it looks like he’s only had one preseason game for the Hawks.

    He had a clean sheet in just over 20 minutes toi in a 4-1 loss to the Wings.

    0-0-0 with 2 shots

    65 Corsi for % with 44 ozone starts.

    http://hockeystats.ca/game/2015010030

    Did nothing with just over 4 minutes of PP time.

  36. Ryan says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting story here

    http://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-trying-to-pawn-off-nikita-nikitin/

    I hope it is successful

    Prooving again that you can’t polish a turd… Though I can see Nikitin being moved with half his salary retained for a bag of pucks…

  37. Klima's_Bucket says:

    A little late to the party but here are some observations from 12 rows behind the Oiler bench last night in Saskatoon. I’ll try not to post the obvious as I’m sure most watched the game yesterday. Here is what I noticed.

    1. I had lunch at the Sheraton yesterday where I saw Nuge and McDavid. McDavid looked 3 inches taller than Nuge. Perhaps he uses lifts???
    2. Draisaitl has a canoe paddle on the end of his stick. There were several times where he used that huge blade to knock down opposition passes or even their hard rims around the boards. If Draisaitl is going to play with McDavid they will need a trigger man like Slepyshev.
    3. Every single shift Pouliot was slashing someone, or trying to pull out their legs from under them along the boards. Sneaky dirty.
    4. The Miller, Pitlick and Gazdic line looked lost all game. The one bright spot was when Gazdic did his job.
    The whole game Folin was chirping at the Oilers bench, and giving whacks to McDavid, Eberle, & Nuge and generally being a pain in the ass. Gazdic challenged him and I was a bit surprised to see Folin oblige. Perhaps Gazdic realized he should do something after letting Hall get abused the night before.
    5. The Hendricks, Letestu, Klinkhammer line had a different break out than the rest of the team. The other three lines do a traditional breakout where they loop back and support the puck out from behind the net. The Hendricks line stretches it out with Hendricks looping just inside the oppositions blue line along the boards. Letestu and Klinkhammer swing out at angles to the walls at the red line while Hendricks slides to the middle and they simply knife the hard pass into the oppositions end to avoid the icing. Then they forecheck like hell on the puck. During TV timeouts Hendricks was on the ice constantly talking with the younger players explaining with animation.
    6. Ference & Gryba can not move the puck. Ference missed on several passes and was exposed all over the ice against a team composed mostly of AHLers. McLellan was calm, cool and collected except during one sequence where he appeared to rip into Ference after Ference struggled to move the puck in the right direction three times on one shift.
    7. After every single shift Nurse had a conversation with McLellan. Either McLellan loved Nurse’s game a lot or he was trying to help him fix his mistakes each shift.
    8. Nilsson and Laleggia are loud. All night you could hear Nilsson communicating to his defence.
    And if I had a quarter for every time I heard Laleggia say “Nursey” I’d easily have paid for my 2 beer last night. These were the most common phrases on repeat from Laleggia’s lips: “Heads up Nursey!” “Reverse Nursey” “One on ya Nursey” “Ya got time Nursey”

  38. oliveoilers says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: 3. Every single shift Pouliot was slashing someone, or trying to pull out their legs from under them along the boards. Sneaky dirty.

    Yeah, lol, it’s what made Perron persona non grata!

    My new favourite dirty Frenchman!

  39. Магия 10 says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting story here

    http://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-trying-to-pawn-off-nikita-nikitin/

    I hope it is successful

    Rather doubt that Young Willis is carrying water for Kingsway.

  40. Raider Jesse says:

    I’m almost positive unless Nilsson has a horrible last game, he makes the team and Scrivens is sent packing to Bakersfield.

  41. Магия 10 says:

    Raider Jesse:
    I’m almost positive unless Nilsson has a horrible last game, he makes the team and Scrivens is sent packing to Bakersfield.

    Ya just know that some team our there is gonna sign Scrivens up for head tracking training.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Mr. D.,

    Gryba and Ference did a great job in their own end and got the puck out very regularly.

    Juxtaposed to:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Ference & Gryba can not move the puck. Ference missed on several passes and was exposed all over the ice against a team composed mostly of AHLers. McLellan was calm, cool and collected except during one sequence where he appeared to rip into Ference after Ference struggled to move the puck in the right direction three times on one shift.

    Gotta say that my eye matched the Jofa’s report not Mr. D.

    One sequence in particular.

    Ference gives it away at the blue line to a Wild F (AHLer).

    Both Wild F and Gryba are basically standing still.

    Within 10ft the Wild F has walked around Gryba and got a High Danger shot off.

    Not good.

    At all.

  43. wheatnoil says:

    Kevin Poulin claimed off waivers by TB. So that’s one goalie claimed. Good thing the Oilers didn’t waive one of their goalies last night.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Mr. D.,

    . People who actually know the game know that you need solid defender…look what happened to us last year.

    I think Darrell Sutter knows the game pretty well:

    “The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone (say) they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play,” said Sutter.

    Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2014-03-10/la-kings-news-darryl-sutter-quotes-corsi-for-definition-sidney-crosby

    I’ll trust Darrell on this one Mr. D.

  45. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Kevin Poulin claimed off waivers by TB. So that’s one goalie claimed. Good thing the Oilers didn’t waive one of their goalies last night.

    Looks like Emery has failed the PTO and they don’t trust Gudlevskis to back up Vasilevskiy until Bishop gets healthy.

    Smart move by Yz. When Bishop gets healthy then Poulin probably gets waived.

    I wonder if Yz called Stu to ask him what he thought of Poulin in his draft year?

  46. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63: We need to hold on to all three goalies until we understand which tandem will give us NHL goaltending most nights. The sample size is small on all three so so, we need more time to get this right.

    Scriven’s sample size isn’t small and the results aren’t good.

    I don’t think its even close.

  47. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers: I have heard that they also coach the ‘Enigmatic Russian’ out of you in the AHL.

    When you are over 210lbs and heavy on the puck they can’t label you “enigmatic”

  48. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Scriven’s sample size isn’t small and the results aren’t good.

    I don’t think its even close.

    Can you say confidently that Nilsson’s sample size makes him look better?

    He’s basically got one good KHL year to go off of where is Sv% is great but it didn’t largely outperform his backup.

    I’m optimistic and hopeful, but not confident in Nilsson.

  49. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy: Scriven’s sample size isn’t small and the results aren’t good.

    I don’t think its even close.

    I saw far too many “first shots going in” and lapses in concentration to give Scrivens a lot of rope. Sure the defense was shoddy, but not being “ready to play” for – at best – a fringe starter is inexcusable.

    Treat Scrivens departure like a bandaid. One quick pull …..

  50. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    Two tricky moves important to get right,

    We need to hold on to all three goalies until we understand which tandem will give us NHL goaltending most nights.The sample size is small on all three so so, we needmore time to get this right.

    You don’t go with three goaltenders, because that is how you end up with no goaltenders. You don’t dither as a GM/coach. You make a decision.

    If somebody claims Scrivens on waivers, so be it. If somebody wants him at half price, do the deal.

  51. TheOtherJohn says:

    Haven’t seen anything all training camp that I haven’t liked. Looks like thoroughly professional org with a plan and assessing the players on what they brought to camp. From the young kids (except ing CMD) Leon has stood out as has Sleppy, Joey Legs and Christoffer.

    Haven’t played a strong NHL calibre roster yet but you can only play opponent they put against you.

  52. Mr. D. says:

    How many good chances did Minny have on Gryba and Ference ? 1 on a turnover when the d are moving up the ice. You can quote whoever you want. You still need players who are specialists. Have you ever played the game or are you a fan turned expert type.
    No doubt the game has changed but offense is no the only part of the game. Otherwise it would be all shootouts. A solid defender takes the puck away and MOVES it to supporting players. It’s not all about dangles by a D.

    Woodguy:
    Mr. D.,

    . People who actually know the game know that you need solid defender…look what happened to us last year.

    I think Darrell Sutter knows the game pretty well:

    “The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone (say) they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play,” said Sutter.

    Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2014-03-10/la-kings-news-darryl-sutter-quotes-corsi-for-definition-sidney-crosby

    I’ll trust Darrell on this one Mr. D.

  53. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Can you say confidently that Nilsson’s sample size makes him look better?

    He’s basically got one good KHL year to go off of where is Sv% is great but it didn’t largely outperform his backup.

    I’m optimistic and hopeful, but not confident in Nilsson.

    I have no idea about Nilsson.

    I have a good idea on Scrivens and its not a good idea.

    That’s enough.

  54. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    Магия 10,

    I once saw young Willis. In person. At Canadian Tire. He shops just like the rest of us. I just stayed in my truck and stared. Truth be told it was raining and I was debating whether I needed more cedar planks versus getting soaked. Young Jon did happen in front of my truck and I waved. He did too!

  55. Woodguy says:

    Mr. D.,

    How many good chances did Minny have on Gryba and Ference ? 1 on a turnover when the d are moving up the ice. You can quote whoever you want. You still need players who are specialists. Have you ever played the game or are you a fan turned expert type.
    No doubt the game has changed but offense is no the only part of the game. Otherwise it would be all shootouts.

    So

    Many

    Strawmen

  56. Mr. D. says:

    Your response is only fluff.

    Woodguy:
    Mr. D.,

    How many good chances did Minny have on Gryba and Ference ? 1 on a turnover when the d are moving up the ice. You can quote whoever you want. You still need players who are specialists. Have you ever played the game or are you a fan turned expert type.
    No doubt the game has changed but offense is no the only part of the game. Otherwise it would be all shootouts.

    So

    Many

    Strawmen

  57. Visually better says:

    I think what has to be looked at in terms of slepy, is regardless of when he plays; to begin the season or later, is what that does to yakupov. If slepy can prove to be a shot first guy on top of his speed and checking ability it will really make Yakupov expendable. Potentially part of a package on that 1d 2d we so desperately need. I really don’t wanna trade Yak, I love the guy but he really hasn’t meshed with anyone other than Roy in his tenure as an oiler. Yakupov has to be in the top 6 to be effective with his defensive ability (or lack thereof). He just simply won’t work on the third line unless he can find some chemistry with lander. I want Yak to work out, I really do, but for some reason its just becoming more and more apparent that he isn’t the right fit as much as it kills me to say it.

    This isn’t the case of Slepy just simply replacing Yak whatsoever, it’s just balance and line structure. We Need balance

  58. kevin says:

    Woodguy: So
    Many
    Strawmen

    And a Woodguy would definitely be able to identify a Strawman.
    Debate over!

  59. Johnny Larue says:

    oliveoilers:
    The Oilers management has to be careful they don’t paint themselves into a corner with regards to Sleppy.

    We have the verbal on earning a roster spot, that nobody is safe.Would be a shame if the Oilers didn’t back this up and made a decision based on something other than winning.

    Personally, I don’t buy the ‘Getting Used To the Ice’ narrative that some guys are saying should be the reason Sleppy should be sent down.I can only go off other sports examples, having never played on Euro ice, but it took us two minutes to get our heads to switch from outdoor to indoor soccer, rugby 15s to 7s, chess to checkers etc.

    Give the guy a shot.Re-enforce the message.Though curiously, Purcell’s injury might make it real easy…

    While I agree Sleppy has played good and deserves to stay to play another day I disagree with your contention that he has clearly outplayed the compitition . I think it is his best interest to play in the AHL to get better adjusted to the smaller ice. That said I think by the end of the year him and Nurse will be on the team to stay.

  60. JD¡™ says:

    Chris Johnston Verified account
    ‏@reporterchris

    Curtis Glencross and Devin Setoguchi both released from PTOs by #leafs, increasing the odds Brad Boyes earns a contract.

  61. Tire Fire says:

    Mr. D.:
    You can quote whoever you want. You still need players who are specialists. Have you ever played the game or are you a fan turned expert type.

    Ah-hahahahahahah.

    Hahahahaha.

    I find this amusing. Not they way you do, but still… amusing.

  62. JD¡™ says:

    Chris Johnston Verified account
    ‏@reporterchris

    Keith Aulie and Patrick Dwyer both released from PTOs by #coyotes.

  63. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: I have no idea about Nilsson.

    I have a good idea on Scrivens and its not a good idea.

    That’s enough.

    Didn’t G-Money or Willis or somebody (sorry) make a pretty strong evidenced based argument that Scrivens was likely to return to his earlier form and be a solid goalie?

    If you’re in Chia’s position, you probably worry more about keeping the guy that helps you as a backup this year over “I hope” and “maybe” but it’s a possibility that Scrivens goes all Dubnyk on us.

  64. Woogie63 says:

    Actual NHL games for the projected starting goalies in the Western conference;

    Miller 604
    Lehtonen 510
    Quick 407
    Smith 387
    Rinne 381
    Hiller 378
    Pavelec 338
    Elliott 281
    Crawford 268
    Varlamov 267
    Dubnyk 231
    ALL THREE OILER GOALIES 209
    Anderson 82
    Stalock 49

  65. geowal says:

    Woogie63,

    So you’re saying we have young goalies with a lot of road ahead ? Great!

    I’m glad we’re not stuck with a declining Miller.

  66. Ryan says:

    Mr. D.,

    You seem to be new around these parts… You’ll quickly learn that people around here are willing to engage in debates about 6-7 dmen and fourth liners all day long. 🙂

    I personally think we spend a little too much time worrying about this stuff. I mean if we had a Victor Hedman or OEL, would anyone care about Gryba?

    On that note, please let me direct both of you to our top four d which is the real issue.

  67. stush18 says:

    Ryan:
    Mr. D.,

    You seem to be new around these parts…You’ll quickly learn that people around here are willing to engage in debates about 6-7 dmen and fourth liners all day long.

    I personally think we spend a little too much time worrying about this stuff.I mean if we had a Victor Hedman or OEL, would anyone care about Gryba?

    On that note, please let me direct both of you to our top four d which is the real issue.

    Technically you’re pointing to our lack of top four dmen. Which is the real problem

  68. ASkoreyko says:

    Mr. D.:
    You can quote whoever you want. You still need players who are specialists. Have you ever played the game or are you a fan turned expert type.

    So wait, are you trying to claim that Woodguy is some nerd in the basement who has never played the game and therefor his opinion is irrelevant? Yet in the same paragraph you immediately discount Darrel Sutter who is probably the polar opposite of a basement dwelling nerd and then state your own opinion as the truth?

    You can’t have it both ways.

    It would seem you are going to dismiss anything that doesn’t fit your own viewpoint which is fine, but then why even bother posting on LT? If you already have your mind made up and will refuse to acknowledge anything that goes against you why even bother? You know what is right and just leave it at that.

  69. Tire Fire says:

    ASkoreyko:

    It would seem you are going to dismiss anything that doesn’t fit your own viewpoint which is fine, but then why even bother posting on LT?

    Ugh, make whatever points you want. Have you ever actually used a message board at a high level, or are you just a message-board fan turned expert?

  70. G Money says:

    book¡je,

    WheatNOil and I did that work (details at NerdAlert).

    I expect Scrivens to rebound, for two reasons:

    1 – In our look at goalies, early results (70ish games) proved to be a surprisingly good classifier of long-term results for goalies (much better than I expected). Basically, if you take the early numbers for a goalie and stratify them as elite-starter-backup, most goalies stay in their category long-term. Some move, but not a single goalie (in the last decade) moved more than one category up or down.

    This is the reason I became a fan of Talbot. His early numbers are elite, suggesting he’s either going to be elite, or at worst a starter grade goalie.

    Scrivens’ early numbers are starter-grade. This leaves it wide open – he could turn out to be a starter, elite, or a backup. But failing out of the league altogether is unlikely.

    2 – A smaller sample longitudinal look at a number of goalies suggests that a significant early career dip, typically coinciding with being named a starter for the first time, was also common. (Again, not a result I was expecting, just something that came up out of the data).

    So the dip that we’ve seen with Dubnyk and with Scrivens is actually more the rule than the exception. And in that context Dubnyk’s subsequent rebound is not surprising either, nor should a rebound on Scrivens’ part be surprising.

    Or rather, I would be more surprised if Scrivens doesn’t rebound, at least to the point where he’s either starter grade or at the very least a capable backup.

    The concomitant risk: Talbot may be due for a dip. Won’t that be just a fun-filled ride for the team (and the Oiler fanbase). Three in a row.

    Nilsson has no meaningful track record and won’t for another 50 or more NHL games, and I’m aghast that people (some of whom I recall criticizing the rather rigorous work that Wheat and I did) can look at two preseason games, no matter the results, and draw any conclusions at all.

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Thanks for the great report. Really enjoy hearing about things like communication & what happens during stoppages. I’m becoming convinced Hendricks will be a coach.

    As for Leon’s paddle I start watching that thing & get hypnotized by it. It probably doesn’t help his shot but clearly he can handle the big stick for passing & stickhandling, it’s very useful for interceptions, board battles & deflections & may well be a faceoff weapon as well.

  72. wheatnoil says:

    book¡je: Didn’t G-Money or Willis or somebody (sorry) make a pretty strong evidenced based argument that Scrivens was likely to return to his earlier form and be a solid goalie?

    If you’re in Chia’s position, you probably worry more about keeping the guy that helps you as a backup this year over “I hope” and “maybe” but it’s a possibility that Scrivens goes all Dubnyk on us.

    That was G Money with some help from myself. Goalies that have have started their careers like Scrivens has (first 1300 even-strength shots, number picked because that’s where Talbot’s at) usually go on to play in the NHL at a reasonable save-percentage. Even using adjusted save percentage to account for better D in LA, Scrivens looked pretty good. What’s more, many goalies with a strong start have a bit of a dip in save percentage before recovering to a reasonable level.

    So, based on this, we should expect Scrivens to recover and his dip last year was neither unprecedented nor unexpected. It’s worth noting that Talbot is due for that same dip this year, so we’ll have to watch out for that.

    Woodguy also parsed the numbers and was less impressed than us with Scrivens (though equally excited about Talbot). I think the difference is in the way the percentages were divided, with Woodguy ranking Scrivens on a year by year basis.

    None-the-less, I stand by our analysis. Based on historical comparables, if Scrivens doesn’t rebound, he is one of the few exceptions that do not. There’s a far better chance that he rebounds.

    Rebounds to what… that I don’t know. Also, it’s near impossible to project Nilsson, who has a very small sample size. So I can’t predict who will be better this year.

    Right now, I’m in favour of waiving Scrivens (despite him being due to bounce-back) mostly because I think his cap hit makes it more likely he passes through waivers. As such, it’s more likely he’ll remain an option in case Nilsson doesn’t work out.

  73. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    🙂 Apparently in addition to collaborating on studying goalies, we also read LT at about the same time.

  74. JD¡™ says:

    wheatnoil: I wonder if Chia can swing a deal with Boston. They need D

    Still can’t see them doing anything with Ference or Niki though. They’re more likely to pluck Aulie from the waiver wire – #bostonmatthews!

  75. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    Apparently in addition to collaborating on studying goalies, we also read LT at about the same time.

    Hah! Well clearly I’m about 4 minutes off. We need to re-synchronize our watches.

  76. stush18 says:

    I’m thinking Boston swings a deal for schenn. He looks to be on the trading block.

    Tampa claimed poulin off waivers. Gotta wonder if they would have traded for scrivens

  77. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Question for those of you that go to a lot of games.
    Does Hendricks always direct warmups?
    Is he always the guy scooping up pucks out of the net and setting up the quick drills?

  78. oliveoilers says:

    wheatnoil: I wonder if Chia can swing a deal with Boston.

    This made me chuckle.

    What do you suggest?

    How about 2015 16OV pick, 33rdOV pick for Dougie Hamilton. They might want Nurse as well, though.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/boston-bruins-felt-that-edmonton-oilers-gm-peter-chiarelli-had-them-under-the-gun-in-dougie-hamilton-negotiations-friedman-says

    I’m not sure , but I think Chia has history with the Bruins.

  79. russ99 says:

    The only issue I have with the goalie competition is that the loser could end up in Bakersfield and take valuable development time away from Brossoit.

    Are we really expecting the NHL backup to play more than 15-20 games tops? I’m not.

    If Scrivens is the odd man out, may be worth it to get from under the cap room, especially since we all know that Chiarelli isn’t afraid of making moves during the season.

  80. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Clarkenstein:
    It is very difficult to project what any player might do at the NHL level when the competition so far has been a blend of AHL/CHL players! I would suggest that in virtually every game so far the Oil have iced a team with more NHL players than the opposition.So while Slepyshev and Nilsson have stood out so far it’s hard to award them a spot on the roster.

    This all day long. While the default assumption is that you should face a blend of NHL & lower-league players in the preseason, the sad fact of the matter is that every road team that has played the Oilers so far (Flames & Jets @Edmonton, Wild @Saskatoon) has been a steaming pile of horse droppings. the league seems to have zero interest in regulating this, instead treating the preseason like a license to steal money.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    oliveoilers: This made me chuckle.

    What do you suggest?

    How about 2015 16OV pick, 33rdOV pick for Dougie Hamilton.They might want Nurse as well, though.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/boston-bruins-felt-that-edmonton-oilers-gm-peter-chiarelli-had-them-under-the-gun-in-dougie-hamilton-negotiations-friedman-says

    I’m not sure , but I think Chia has history with the Bruins.

    True and part of that history came to play in the Hamilton trade. The other piece is that there were rumours that Edmonton was the team that was thinking about putting in an offer sheet to Hamilton, which was what was forcing the hastened trade to begin with. That also might have been a reason why Edmonton couldn’t get a deal at value.

    That doesn’t mean that trading one of our goaltenders there is not an option. If they’re not impressed with Gustavson, they’ve got to do something. Calgary has been rumoured to be willing to trade one of their goalies, but after the Hamilton trade was so roundly scoffed at, Sweeney might not be interested in trading with them again.

    Either way, I’m more of a fan of burying Scrivens in the minors as a safety-net, but if we’re looking at trades, Boston is a team that is potentially of need for a back-up goalie, which was the point of that post.

  82. Lowetide says:

    I think the battle between Scrivens and Nilsson won’t be decided even if both of them play well in camp, and the Oilers have had enough issues in this area that 3G BEOMES a reasonable option.

    As for Slepy, important to remember he’s not 18. If he shows well enough in camp, keeping him is reasonable. I don’t think it will be a difficult choice at the end, and if it is we would do well to give that moment the up arrow it would deserve.

  83. wheatnoil says:

    stush18:

    Tampa claimed poulin off waivers. Gotta wonder if they would have traded for scrivens

    They don’t have the cap room. The Oilers would have to take something pretty significant back.

  84. Frank the dog says:

    I suspect it may be a freezing day in Dallol before Boston does business with Chia. They’ve demonstrated a willingness to ignore their own best interests in order to stick it to him.
    I’m looking forward to a competitive Oilers team sticking it back where it counts – on the scoreboard.
    In the meantime, I would suspect that it’s not worth Chia’s time to even give them the time of day.
    The divide may be as deep as the Lowe/Burke divide except that Chia is a pro.

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    I noticed Hendricks doing this at camp.

  86. ASkoreyko says:

    Tire Fire: Ugh, make whatever points you want. Have you ever actually used a message board at a high level, or are you just a message-board fan turned expert?

    I’ll say that I have been posting on internet message boards since BBS. So I think I know a little bit about posting on internet message-boards, if there’s ever a concern.

  87. v4ance says:

    Was anyone tracking who Ference and Gryba were playing with last night?

    My recollection, which is as fuzzy as anyone’s, was that I saw Ference-Gryba mainly out with Poo-RNH-Ebs line for the most part. I know Minny’s lineup was weak but that would have meant that F-G saw the Wild’s “shut down” line mostly…. food for thought?

  88. oliveoilers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This all day long. While the default assumption is that you should face a blend of NHL & lower-league players in the preseason, the sad fact of the matter is that every road team that has played the Oilers so far (Flames & Jets @Edmonton, Wild @Saskatoon) has been a steaming pile of horse droppings. the league seems to have zero interest in regulating this, instead treating the preseason like a license to steal money.

    Let’s leave the stone throwing for now, eh Bruce.

    Other teams may put out line-ups that would struggle against my son’s peewee team in the pre-season, but the Oilers are the only team to have done this on purpose during the regular season since 2008.

  89. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Who would actually pick up Scrivens/Nilsson?

    Boston has Jeremy Smith and Malcolm Subban battling Gustavsson for the backup job to Rask
    Buffalo has Chad Johnson backing up Lehner
    Columbus may want an upgrade over McIlhenney
    Montreal may want something better behind Price than Tokarski
    Nashville has Hutton behind Rinne
    New Jersey has Keith Kinkaid behind Schneider
    Pittsburgh has Zatkoff behind Fleury

    I doubt either goalie gets claimed unless an injury occurs somewhere.

    There are several teams with 3 goalies.
    Anaheim – Gibson, Andersen, Khudobin
    Calgary – Hiller, Ortio, Ramo
    Minnesota – Dubnyk, Kuemper, Backstrom
    Tampa (once Vasilevskiy is healthy) – Bishop and Poulin
    Washington – Peters, Holtby, Grubbauer

  90. G Money says:

    ASkoreyko: I’ll say that I have been posting on internet message boards since BBS. So I think I know a little bit about posting on internet message-boards, if there’s ever a concern.

    Yes, but how many (token) ring (network)s did you do this over? At least five or six I hope.

  91. striker says:

    Tire Fire: Ugh, make whatever points you want. Have you ever actually used a message board at a high level, or are you just a message-board fan turned expert?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSy5mEcmgwU

  92. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil: That was G Money with some help from myself. Goalies that have have started their careers like Scrivens has (first 1300 even-strength shots, number picked because that’s where Talbot’s at)usually go on to play in the NHL at a reasonable save-percentage. Even using adjusted save percentage to account for better D in LA, Scrivens looked pretty good. What’s more, many goalies with a strong start have a bit of a dip in save percentage before recovering to a reasonable level.

    So, based on this, we should expect Scrivens to recover and his dip last year was neither unprecedented nor unexpected. It’s worth noting that Talbot is due for that same dip this year, so we’ll have to watch out for that.

    Woodguy also parsed the numbers and was less impressed than us with Scrivens (though equally excited about Talbot). I think the difference is in the way the percentages were divided, with Woodguy ranking Scrivens on a year by year basis.

    None-the-less, I stand by our analysis. Based on historical comparables, if Scrivens doesn’t rebound, he is one of the few exceptions that do not. There’s a far better chance that he rebounds.

    Rebounds to what… that I don’t know. Also, it’s near impossible to project Nilsson, who has a very small sample size. So I can’t predict who will be better this year.

    Right now, I’m in favour of waiving Scrivens (despite him being due to bounce-back) mostly because I think his cap hit makes it more likely he passes through waivers. As such, it’s more likely he’ll remain an option in case Nilsson doesn’t work out.

    I will preface my comment by acknowledging that I haven’t looked at your data.

    In terms of the whole rebounding concept that we’re talking about, I think there’s a world of difference with a player like Dubnyk rebounding vs Scrivens since Dubnyk’s pre-implosion NHL data set was 120 vs 60 games.

    The other anomaly is that I can’t imaging there’s a large body of data for goalies given as many minutes to hang themselves as Scrivens had last year.

    Other tanking teams had to trade away goalies to try to get goaltending as bad as Scivens and Fasth.

    Who are your best comparables for Scrivens?

    How many games did they play in the year they had their dip?

    Basically, I find it hard to imagine that there are many goalies in recent years who’ve posted a sub .900 even strength save percentage over 57 NHL games in a single season… Never mind who’ve managed that feat AND gotten a crack at making the team the following season without clawing their way back from the minors.

  93. oliveoilers says:

    wheatnoil: True and part of that history came to play in the Hamilton trade. The other piece is that there were rumours that Edmonton was the team that was thinking about putting in an offer sheet to Hamilton, which was what was forcing the hastened trade to begin with. That also might have been a reason why Edmonton couldn’t get a deal at value.

    That doesn’t mean that trading one of our goaltenders there is not an option. If they’re not impressed with Gustavson, they’ve got to do something. Calgary has been rumoured to be willing to trade one of their goalies, but after the Hamilton trade was so roundly scoffed at, Sweeney might not be interested in trading with them again.

    Either way, I’m more of a fan of burying Scrivens in the minors as a safety-net, but if we’re looking at trades, Boston is a team that is potentially of need for a back-up goalie, which was the point of that post.

    Firstly, in no way can the Oilers be blamed for the Bruins not being able to sign their man: That was pure mismanagement of an asset, something we know a little about. If the Bruins were feeling the pinch, then it’s ALL on them.

    Secondly, the Hamilton deal was pure cutting off their nose to spite their face. It was personal and I would be astounded more at deal between current Oilers and Bruins management at this time than if Gretz announced a comeback.

    While you analysis of the goalie market is correct and in a perfect world we send Gentle Ben to the Bruins (Ha!) for a Care Bears DVD, I feel the Bruins would rather play Subban or deal with anybody else than Chia. That was the point of my post.

  94. wheatnoil says:

    Ryan,

    Fair questions. I think, to start, it’s worth looking at the data and G Money has put it together nicely here.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/goalies-are-not-voodoo-if-they-make-it-to-60-or-so-nhl-games/

    That’s actually the 3rd in the series and we didn’t vigorously analyze the “dip” we were talking about. That came from G Money’s first post where he saw that there was significant early career volatility in many elite goaltenders.

    That post is here… https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/more-blogs-about-goalies-and-food/

    That said, to reiterate, your questions are valid. Neither of us really dug in to exactly how common that dip is, how long it lasts and when we should expect it to rebound. However, there’s the initial work on it and there’s some good stuff in the comments by TheGreatMutato on a few more goalies. Mason, in particular, is an interesting one I think.

  95. wheatnoil says:

    oliveoilers,

    Agreed, wasn’t meaning to blame the Oilers. I think it was the Bruins being stupid.

    I don’t know if they learned their lesson or not. It’s possible they haven’t and will continue to do stupid things. Certainly I was looking at it from the Oilers perspective and not from the Bruins’.

    Frustrating that Boston lines up as a trade partner in more than one potential way and it’s their ego that prevents them from making the deal. Of course, maybe that’s why Chiarelli is gone from there to begin with.

  96. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for letting me know!

  97. jake70 says:

    Man, Josh Donaldson another walk off homer. This is what it feels like to cheer for a team that wins. Been long time.

  98. oliveoilers says:

    wheatnoil,

    LOL, my list for Bat Sh!t Crazy GMs are, in no particular order,

    1) Jim Benning

    2) Don Sweeney

    3) Jim Rutherford

    One of these I suspect to be the sock puppet of Cam Neeley.

    It’s strange seeing it happen to someone else for a change.

  99. John Chambers says:

    Josh Donaldson. Just wow.

  100. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    Ryan,

    Fair questions. I think, to start, it’s worth looking at the data and G Money has put it together nicely here.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/goalies-are-not-voodoo-if-they-make-it-to-60-or-so-nhl-games/

    That’s actually the 3rd in the series and we didn’t vigorously analyze the “dip” we were talking about. That came from G Money’s first post where he saw that there was significant early career volatility in many elite goaltenders.

    That post is here… https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/more-blogs-about-goalies-and-food/

    That said, to reiterate, your questions are valid. Neither of us really dug in to exactly how common that dip is, how long it lasts and when we should expect it to rebound. However, there’s the initial work on it and there’s some good stuff in the comments by TheGreatMutato on a few more goalies. Mason, in particular, is an interesting one I think.

    I just did an in-depth analysis that involved about five minutes of refreshing pages at stats.hockeyanalysis.com that took me back to 2007-8.

    In short a sub .900 EV SV over the course of more than 20 NHL games portends either retirement or a flight to Europe. In other words, it’s where NHL goalies careers go to die.

    Notable names included Christobal Huet 2009-10 with an .893 EV sv% who went on to play the following season in the Swiss B league.

    Other notable names included guys like Roloson and Brodeur who were headed fo retirement.

    Vesa Toskala had a .9004 EV sv% over 26 games in 2009-10 which basically signaled the end of this NHL career.

    Antti Raanta has so far lived to fight another day after posting an .8934 over 25 games in 2013-4.

    If Scrivens can carve out an NHL career after his sub .900 EV SV% from 57 games last season, contrary to your assertion… He wouldn’t just be an exception to the norm, he’d be the first goalie to land on the fucking moon.

  101. stevezie says:

    So most (but not woodguy) agree scrivens is probably the safer bet, but his contract might be the deciding factor.

    But deciding which way? Will anyone want Scrivens at that price?

    If not, is it so bad to ask Nilsson to increase his N.A. sample size in the A while splitting games with Broissoint? Et Etc can rock the ECHL for a month or so.

    Is that so bad? The alternative is putting all our eggs in Scrivens’ or Nilsson’s basket. Considering it is his first year as a starter, i expect Talbot will need a strong backup.

    EDIT: Put Ryan in the WG category

  102. Tire Fire says:

    Ryan:
    If Scrivens can carve out an NHL career after his sub .900 EV SV% from 57 games last season, contrary to your assertion…He wouldn’t just be an exception to the norm, he’ be the first goalie to land on the fucking moon.

    One small stop for man, one giant leap for Oilerkind.

  103. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    So what you’re saying is … goalies near the end of their career tend to see a decline in sv%?

    How does Roloson having a poor sv% near the end of his long and distinguished career tell you *anything* about Scrivens?

    The questions at hand are:
    – if a goalie posts good numbers early in his career, how common is a dip? Answer: quite.
    – if a goalie posts good numbers early, how likely is it that they fail out? Answer: not very. Goalies that fail out tend to post poor numbers early. Something your five minute study should have confirmed. Example: Viktor Fasth.

    Based on a substantive data set (all 143 goalies in the last decade, weeded down to 40+ in our study), Scrivens is a good bet to rebound.

    Note the word “bet”. There are no certainties. It is certainly possible that he will fail out. But if he does, he’ll be the first goalie in a decade to post his kind of numbers early and then fail out.

    If you want a good recent comparable to Scrivens, Varlamov might be a reasonable start. (Lower numbers over about 40 more games, then posted a .903 over 35 games, then went on to be a Vezina candidate the next year). Ditto Dubnyk and his .890.

  104. book¡je says:

    Thanks G-Wheat!

    Woodguy- you’re being hard on Scrivens. Without his nearly record breaking season last year, the Oilers wouldn’t have McDavid, and Lowe and MacT would still be in charge. Really, the Mayor should declare the first day of the season as Scriven’s Day in the City and we should throw him a damn parade.

    We can fly him in from Bakersfield to attend.

  105. oliveoilers says:

    G Money: If you want a good recent comparable to Scrivens, Varlamov might be a reasonable start. (Lower numbers over about 40 more games, then posted a .903 over 35 games, then went on to be a Vezina candidate the next year). Ditto Dubnyk and his .890.

    “…in this week’s episode of extreme outliers playing for markedly better/luckier teams…..”

    😉

  106. Aron_S says:

    Ryan:
    If Scrivens can carve out an NHL career after his sub .900 EV SV% from 57 games last season, contrary to your assertion…He wouldn’t just be an exception to the norm, he’d be the first goalie to land on the fucking moon.

    Kudos. This made me laugh so hard I nearly coughed up a lung with the cold I’m fighting.

  107. John Chambers says:

    oliveoilers:
    wheatnoil,

    LOL, my list for Bat Sh!t Crazy GMs are, in no particular order,

    1)Jim Benning

    2)Don Sweeney

    3)Jim Rutherford

    One of these I suspect to be the sock puppet of Cam Neeley.

    It’s strange seeing it happen to someone else for a change.

    I thought Rutherford had a decent summer getting the cheaper Bonino and giving up second-tier assets to obtain Kessel.

    Pittsburghs defense is a bit young but I have these guys pegged to win their division.

  108. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I think the thing to consider might be the perception vs. reality of keeping Scrivens/Nilsson.

    This is why I think it’s going to be really tough for these guys to run a tandem of Talbot/Nilsson. If they struggle, the media is going to crucify you. Your tandem has a combined, what, 50 NHL starts between the two of them?

    This is why I maintain Nilsson has an uphill battle. Personally I’m in the pro Nilsson camp, I just don’t think it will happen.

  109. RexLibris says:

    Boyes signs in TO for $700,000, per twitter.

  110. Klima's_Bucket says:

    RexLibris: Boyes signs in TO for $700,000, per twitter.

    I’d rather have Purcell at 4.5 Mill…

  111. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Yup. I like the Talbot signing. I like the Nilsson signing as a challenge to both Talbot and Scrivens.

    But unless one of those guys plays himself off the team and makes it easy, I don’t envy the guy making the decisions.

    On the other hand, deciding between three goalies all of whom give you a decent shot at winning is a problem this team hasn’t had in quite a long while.

    The real fear is: what if Talbot dips, Scrivens doesn’t rebound, and Nilsson shits the bed against real NHL opposition?

  112. BONVIE says:

    I sure hope they keep Nillson. I always liked him as a prospect and was surprised when we picked him up for nothing.

    My opinion of Nillson is he is our best chance long term in filling in the mess Mctavish made by trading out a top 10 NHL goalie. I really like Cam Talbot but I’m not confident he will be the type of goalie that will Filll the massive void left by trading out our starter. I’ve seen way too much of Scriven’s bad goaltending already I’m like Woodguy in I don’t need to see anymore.

    I am in favour of keeping Gryba, Davidson, and Rheinhart. I like the fact they can play Defense. Please send Nikitin to the minors if they can’t make the trade.

  113. dangilitis says:

    RexLibris:
    Boyes signs in TO for $700,000, per twitter.

    That’s a good player at a good price. I’d prefer him on the opening day roster over Korpikoski, Purcell (at his price tag), Gazdic, and Slepyshev (this year)

  114. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    Totally possible. The talking heads will crucify this management team if that happens. They’ll say “should have signed a veteran” operating under the assumption that a quality veteran was available. We all understand that with goaltending all you can do is make good bets, but they’re still bets.

    I like the bets we’ve made.

  115. BONVIE says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    G Money,

    Totally possible.The talking heads will crucify this management team if that happens.They’ll say “should have signed a veteran” operating under the assumption that a quality veteran was available.We all understand that with goaltending all you can do is make good bets, but they’re still bets.

    I like the bets we’ve made.

    It’s that type of thinking that ended up having management draft Yakapov and look how that is turning out.

  116. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BONVIE,

    As opposed to Ryan Murray? Or are you suggesting they should have used the pick to draft a guy that played 2 games that year?

    Or they should have gone way off the board and selected a guy that went in the 10 range like Trouba?

  117. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: Didn’t G-Money or Willis or somebody (sorry) make a pretty strong evidenced based argument that Scrivens was likely to return to his earlier form and be a solid goalie?

    If you’re in Chia’s position, you probably worry more about keeping the guy that helps you as a backup this year over “I hope” and “maybe” but it’s a possibility that Scrivens goes all Dubnyk on us.

    My issue is that Scrivens wasn’t that good before EDM picked him up, he just ran hot for 19 games for LAK.

    From my goalie thing:

    Scrivens is a fine young man and I would let him date my daughter. I woudn’t let him play goal for my hockey team though. He’s had only 1 decent year out of his 4 NHL years. The other 3 have been bad to very bad. As I mentioned in my previous post, MacT’s bet on him was not a good one as he lacked the track record you want for making these types of bets. Oilers should retain salary and trade him.

    Linky: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    I looked for trends of elite & starting goalies and found that being ranked high in Adjusted SV% regularly was pretty common among the good ones and non-existent among the poor ones.

    If we look at Scrivens’ yearly ranks we see:

    11/12 – 51/58
    12/13 – 30/48
    13/14 – 17/55
    14-15 – 46/48

    You can even go a step further and break his 13/14 year down to:

    LAK 4/54 (ran hot) (min 500 min played)
    EDM 25/46 (min 500 min played)

    Outside of 18 games for LAK where he ran hotter than the Sun, Scrivens has not shown himself to be much more than a replacement level goalie.

    He might rebound, but I see his high point being “Almost NHL starter”, that’s simply not good enough and a thin bet for a guy who is going UFA at the end of the year.

  118. Zelepukin says:

    Woodguy: My issue is that Scrivens wasn’t that good before EDM picked him up, he just ran hot for 19 games for LAK.

    From my goalie thing:

    Scrivens is a fine young man and I would let him date my daughter.I woudn’t let him play goal for my hockey team though.He’s had only 1 decent year out of his 4 NHL years.The other 3 have been bad to very bad.As I mentioned in my previous post, MacT’s bet on him was not a good one as he lacked the track record you want for making these types of bets.Oilers should retain salary and trade him.

    Linky: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    I looked for trends of elite & startinggoalies and found that being ranked high in Adjusted SV% regularly was pretty common among the good ones and non-existent among the poor ones.

    If we look at Scrivens’ yearly ranks we see:

    11/12 – 51/58
    12/13 – 30/48
    13/14 – 17/55
    14-15 – 46/48

    You can even go a step further and break his 13/14 year down to:

    LAK 4/54 (ran hot) (min 500 min played)
    EDM 25/46 (min 500 min played)

    Outside of 18 games for LAK where he ran hotter than the Sun, Scrivens has not shown himself to be much more than a replacement level goalie.

    He might rebound, but I see his high point being “Almost NHL starter”, that’s simply not good enough and a thin bet for a guy who is going UFA at the end of the year.

    This. Plus add in the fact that all you need to do is watch him play and you’ll notice that he has a lot of bad habits, aka, Scrivens gonna scriv. He constantly flops forward as a solution to smother easy shots, leaving the net wide open for rebounds. He does not handle the puck well and he has an uncanny ability to let in weak-side shots. The advocates for Scrivens to make the team are probably the same people who believe Ference deserves a regular shift.

  119. ASkoreyko says:

    BONVIE: It’s that type of thinking that ended up having management draft Yakapov and look how that is turning out.

    Hindsight makes everyone the smartest person in the room. Yakupov was the consensus #1 pick. The Oilers would of been taking a much larger risk in picking Murray or even worse Trouba with the #1 pick.

    Sometimes these things don’t work out the way they are supposed to, but you have to remember to judge the decision at that point in time.

  120. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: My issue is that Scrivens wasn’t that good before EDM picked him up, he just ran hot for 19 games for LAK.

    From my goalie thing:

    Scrivens is a fine young man and I would let him date my daughter.I woudn’t let him play goal for my hockey team though.He’s had only 1 decent year out of his 4 NHL years.The other 3 have been bad to very bad.As I mentioned in my previous post, MacT’s bet on him was not a good one as he lacked the track record you want for making these types of bets.Oilers should retain salary and trade him.

    Linky: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    I looked for trends of elite & startinggoalies and found that being ranked high in Adjusted SV% regularly was pretty common among the good ones and non-existent among the poor ones.

    If we look at Scrivens’ yearly ranks we see:

    11/12 – 51/58
    12/13 – 30/48
    13/14 – 17/55
    14-15 – 46/48

    You can even go a step further and break his 13/14 year down to:

    LAK 4/54 (ran hot) (min 500 min played)
    EDM 25/46 (min 500 min played)

    Outside of 18 games for LAK where he ran hotter than the Sun, Scrivens has not shown himself to be much more than a replacement level goalie.

    He might rebound, but I see his high point being “Almost NHL starter”, that’s simply not good enough and a thin bet for a guy who is going UFA at the end of the year.

    So basically what you are saying is that you just don’t like people from Spruce Grove.

  121. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: I just did an in-depth analysis that involved about five minutes of refreshing pages at stats.hockeyanalysis.com that took me back to 2007-8.

    In short a sub .900 EV SV over the course of more than 20 NHL games portends either retirement or a flight to Europe.In other words, it’s where NHL goalies careers go to die.

    Notable names included Christobal Huet 2009-10 with an .893 EV sv% who went on to play the following season in the Swiss B league.

    Other notable names included guys like Roloson and Brodeur who were headed fo retirement.

    Vesa Toskala had a .9004 EV sv% over 26 games in 2009-10 which basically signaled the end of this NHL career.

    Antti Raanta has so far lived to fight another day after posting an .8934 over 25 games in 2013-4.

    If Scrivens can carve out an NHL career after his sub .900 EV SV% from 57 games last season, contrary to your assertion…He wouldn’t just be an exception to the norm, he’d be the first goalie to land on the fucking moon.

    Doobie put up a .893 in 13/14 over 32 games with the Oilers.

    Interesting point though.

  122. Woodguy says:

    ASkoreyko: So wait, are you trying to claim that Woodguy is some nerd in the basement who has never played the game and therefor his opinion is irrelevant? Yet in the same paragraph you immediately discount Darrel Sutter who is probably the polar opposite of a basement dwelling nerd and then state your own opinion as the truth?

    You can’t have it both ways.

    It would seem you are going to dismiss anything that doesn’t fit your own viewpoint which is fine, but then why even bother posting on LT? If you already have your mind made up and will refuse to acknowledge anything that goes against you why even bother? You know what is right and just leave it at that.

    That’s way more coherent of a response than what I was going to write.

  123. Pastor of Disaster says:

    If Sleppy is Stuck Inside of Mobile, then hopefully Nikitin can Go [His] Way (and We’ll Go Ours). That would be Absolutely Sweet, Marie. Outside of Howson and MacT, does NN even have 5 Believers? I doubt it. Maybe his time with the Oilers this season will only be Temporary. Like Achilles.

    I guess One of Us Will Know (Sooner or Later).

  124. Lois Lowe says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting story here

    http://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-trying-to-pawn-off-nikita-nikitin/

    I hope it is successful

    This article is either perfect satire or the most unintentionally hilarious thing I’ve read all week. I look forward to many more if the Oilers actually become relevant league-wide.

    The thread today seems very meta.

  125. One-Timer says:

    G Money:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    The real fear is: what if Talbot dips, Scrivens doesn’t rebound, and Nilsson shits the bed against real NHL opposition?

    That is when the Oilers apply for a special Commissioner’s Exemption to use foam targets instead of a goalie.

  126. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Doobie put up a .893 in 13/14 over 32 games with the Oilers.

    Interesting point though.

    Yes, I didn’t add Doobie since I had mentioned him already in a previous comment. We all know his journey back from the abyss–traded for salary dump (Hendricks) then traded for future consideration and then sailing thru waivers twice without getting claimed.

    It’s still worth noting that Scrivens’ 57 game foray into sub .900 goaltending has him so far off the charts, he’s a completely unique outlier.

  127. Really? says:

    Woodguy,

    When you also realize that Scrivens puck handling is a total nightmare then you realize that Nilsson may be a stronger option.

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