TRADE WINDS?

Plenty of chatter among Oilers fans today about Peter Chiarelli working the phones and possible destinations for Ben Scrivens, Nikita Nikitin and even Teddy Purcell. In order for any of this to happen, Peter Chiarelli, Todd McLellan and the rest of management have to be certain they have enough cover at each position. Do they?

GOAL

Ben Scrivens has played in 129 NHL games, Cam Talbot 57 and Anders Nilsson 23. This is a very inexperienced group and running with Talbot and Nilsson—while sending away Scrivens—seems risky from here. That said, Talbot and Nilsson have looked good and Chiarelli didn’t trade for these guys for something to do. One option I thought we might see, that does look less likely now? Bringing in an established goalie to backup Talbot. I don’t think that happens, at least before the season starts. Nice performance by Nilsson and he’s pushing Scrivens for sure.

DEFENSE

I thought the Oilers might use Oscar Klefbom in a shutdown role but based pre-season games Todd McLellan appears to like the Klefbom playing a more offensive role (I thought he was strong in the shutdown role). In the Winnipeg game last week, it’s interesting to compare how McLellan used Klefbom and Griffin Reinhart.

  • Klefbom 14:58EV; 5:06PK; 1:36PP
  • Reinhart 14:02EV; 4:35PK; 0:00PK
  • Klefbom EV ZS:62%;  EV Corsi: 50%
  • Reinhart EV ZS:33%;  EV Corsi: 75%

Pre-season, just test driving everything but I think Reinhart is a good bet for No. 5 defenseman on this team. It might go like this:

  1. Andrej Sekera
  2. Mark Fayne
  3. Oscar Klefbom
  4. Justin Schultz
  5. Griffin Reinhart
  6. Nikita Nikitin
  7. Eric Gryba
  8. Andrew Ference

I think the top five are pretty close to what they’re thinking but after that it’s uncertain. Nikitin is a guy who you probably want to keep around until you’re sure, or until Nurse proves ready. Fair? Unless someone overwhelms I suspect Nikitin is here opening night and on the third pairing (no idea who will be beside him, I’ll guess Reinhart).

FORWARDS

There are two items here. First, Anton Slepyshev. I have zero problem with him on the Oilers roster, but folks Connor McDavid is a rookie and Leon Draisaitl is pretty damn close. If the Oilers are going to run that young again they better be sure. Just my opinion. As for Purcell, trade winds could blow at any time and that’s fine. However, he might have higher value leading up to the trade deadline (hell, maybe TBay trades for him so he can make magic with Stamkos again) when most of his money has already bled out.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

There’s no hurry for Edmonton. The things they need (top 4D, 1974 Bernie Parent) aren’t available to them and their GM has already made his bets. Unless we see a Leddy or Boychuk shake loose in the hours before the season, we’re down to watching Todd McLellan choose his 6’s, 7’s and 9’s.

Trading Nikita Nikitin without a legit top 4D coming in is a little crazy. If they can cobble together an offer to bring in this year’s Leddy? Music!

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77 Responses to "TRADE WINDS?"

  1. One-Timer says:

    Hey what’s up with the new teal-coloured subtitles?
    Some sort of symbolism?

  2. Woodguy says:

    That’s exactly how I have the Dmen as well.

    Agreed on the Nikitin thing too.

    I like the teal.

  3. Lowetide says:

    I’m trying stuff.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    Did the team get “heavier”?

  5. marty62 says:

    I love the Parent reference LT…. ahhh the Flyers golden age…. Bernie was fun to watch, even though I was a Bruins fan back then.. Still had to love Bernie.

  6. godot10 says:

    The OIlers open the season, in St. Louis, where Ken Hitchcock is going to want to bellyflop into the Oilers pool party. Gryba will be in the lineup against St. Louis, barring injury.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Marner sent down already. That’s interesting

  8. Soup Fascist says:

    Sorry. I just don’t see Nikitin or Ference as a solution to any defense issues here. I think if you have a chance to move them elsewhere – eating salary and or sending a mid round pick to sweeten the pot – I suggest you do it.

    Not sure who bites, but if another team is on the line you reel them in. Maybe a team with a strong top four can add afford to add a ” character” veteran like Ference in a limited minutes role. Maybe Chia has to take a questionable contract back. I realize we don’t have an abundance of proven NHL D depth, but I have no faith in either at this point in their careers.

    At the risk of sounding like a smart ass, if Ference or Nikitin are the answer, it must be a stupid question.

  9. Concur says:

    The easy ones are that of course they want to trade Nikitin, but no one wants the cap hit for a question mark. The other obvious is that Ference isn’t going anywhere, at least not right now, he signed a NMC to retire as an Oiler. That may change when and if he is in the pressbox too many times. The not so obvious is Fayne, Fayne is duplicated in Gryba and also not mentioned as a to 4D by Chia.

  10. Soup Fascist says:

    I assumed teal was a comment on the Sharkization of the Oilers systems.

    That or it is just a cool color.

    In either case it suits the eye better than what we have become accustomed to.

  11. Real_Hockey_Fan says:

    Maybe its just me but I don’t think teal is a hockey colour. No team has ever won a Cup wearing teal!! Subtitles should be Oiler blue to match the existing orange.

  12. Wolfie says:

    Slepy must really be pushing the issue. I think that the Oilers have enough experience in the top 6. There are question marks but if you run…

    Poo-Nuge-Ebs
    Hall-Lander-Yak

    Then you could conceivably run a soft killer line in Drai-McD-Slepy…

    Lander seems poised to be able to take on that kind of responsibility. His previous experience in the show tends me to be cautious but he has simply blossomed. He’s all business, goes to the hard areas, defensively responsible and is starting to show some offence.

    Yak is maturing and should be able to contribute to that line…

    Now I’m sure we can all come up with different combos and it’s likely that TMac will do some juggling. You can always flank McDavid with some vets if need be or move Drai around.

    I find that kid line reminiscent of the Graves, Murphy, Gelinas line…

    Either way there are going to be some matchup headaches for the opposition!

  13. striatic says:

    I just can’t see any of Scrivens, Nikitin or Purcell bringing anything worthwhile in return. Later round draft picks at best. Any team interested in any of these guys should wait for them to get waived.

  14. dustrock says:

    Not convinced Fayne will be #2 by season’s end, one way or the other.

    Really have no expectations this year except to see some McDavid magic and for the team to finally improve.

  15. dustrock says:

    Also TO decided not to sign Glencross.

  16. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Marner sent down already.That’s interesting

    He’s still a very much a teenager in terms of physical build.

    Having him get killed all year on a bad TOR team and burning a ELC year would have been a bad decision.

  17. Woodguy says:

    striatic:
    I just can’t see any of Scrivens, Nikitin or Purcell bringing anything worthwhile in return. Later round draft picks at best. Any team interested in any of these guys should wait for them to get waived.

    The key to moving all of them is getting the Oilers to retain 50% salary.

    No one is touching them on waiver wire due to cap hit.

  18. dustrock says:

    Woodguy: He’s still a very much a teenager in terms of physical build.

    Having him get killed all year on a bad TOR team and burning a ELC year would have been a bad decision.

    Yeah I thought the idea even prior to the draft was that Marner would be returning. My reading was that McDavid, Eichel, maybe Hanifin and Provorov were ready, and Crouse, and every other 1st round pick would be going back to juniors.

  19. Genjutsu says:

    I like the D you have posted as well. I’m a fan of carrying 8 D in general because you can never have enough D.

    I like it even more if TCAF is on the team. In my ideal dream world he starts the season on the IR and Davidson makes the team.

  20. Mr DeBakey says:

    Concur: The not so obvious is Fayne, Fayne is duplicated in Gryba and also not mentioned as a to 4D by Chia.

    Except Fayne is better
    Yes?
    Fayne 2/3 RHD
    Gryba 3 RHD or pressbox

  21. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy: Having him get killed all year on a bad TOR team and burning a ELC year would have been a bad decision.

    Tambo would’ve made it

  22. "Steve Smith" says:

    Concur: Fayne is duplicated in Gryba

    …in much the same way as Pouliot is duplicated in Klinkhammer.

  23. Mr DeBakey says:

    “Steve” said it better

    On Nillson
    Last season .936 in the KHL
    but only .882 for Sweden in 7 games.

    Look!
    A small sample size!

  24. speeds says:

    Woodguy: The key to moving all of them is getting the Oilers to retain 50% salary.

    No one is touching them on waiver wire due to cap hit.

    And I doubt they’ll do that with all 3, not if they have potential designs on retaining some salary in a Ference trade later in the year, if he’s amenable to a deal and there’s a market.

  25. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: Yeah I thought the idea even prior to the draft was that Marner would be returning.My reading was that McDavid, Eichel, maybe Hanifin and Provorov were ready, and Crouse, and every other 1st round pick would be going back to juniors.

    Strome is still at Coyotes camp and Tippett generally has no use for kids.

    I bet they still send him back though.

  26. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: …in much the same way as Pouliot is duplicated in Klinkhammer.

    …in much the same way Black Forest cake is duplicated in Rice Krispy Squares.

  27. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    But … but … but … I like Rice Krispie Squares more than I like Black Forest Cake!!

  28. ashley says:

    I’d rather see things settle a little than run out and make trades in preseason. I personally don’t want to see another middle of the road aging Fayne-type Dman on a 4 year contract gumming up the roster with high salary and ice time expectation.

    We’ve got great talent bubbling under and it won’t be long. I think Reinhart is “top 4” on this roster before Christmas, and maybe earlier. It might be a little too soon for him in this role, but the experience will be more valuable to us for years to come than another team’s discarded veteran.

    It’s time to sit tight.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Apple crisp is less than an hour away. Peeled six really good apples and it smells so good!!! We’re in fall and that’s alright with me.

    I think they buy out Ference next summer.

  30. Cahoon says:

    G Money,

    Me too, but I am not a fan of cherry pie filling, and I hate Maraschino cherries.

  31. Tire Fire says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    But … but … but … I like Rice Krispie Squares more than I like Black Forest Cake!!

    I was once asked at a conference–in that particular type of analytical way that only Germans can do–what exactly a Rice Krispie square was. I had a hard time explaining it…

  32. kinger_OIL says:

    – Reinhart, Drai, Sheppy, Nillson have total, less than 80 games in the NHL: You can’t have many of them playing. I didn’t include McD. That’s 5 rookies, when on a good team, maybe you have 2.

    – Klef has less than a full season of games

    – ^EDIT^ – Lander played less than half a season last year, and was waived

    – Our top goalie was the best back-up in the business

    – We have it seem 6-7 D who all you could argue fit as a #6/7 D

    – Projecting all our youth to roster positions and to be impact when in the last 10 years, rookies batting above their order was the Oil recipe for sh%t: this time will be different?

    – And the Oil will be better, but they aren’t playoffs with this roster, whether its Drai or Purcell, or Captain or Nurse, or Sheppy or Gadzic to start the year.

  33. Mr DeBakey says:

    kinger_OIL: Reinhart, Drai, Sheppy, Nillson have total, less than 80 games in the NHL: You can’t have many of them playing. I didn’t include McD. That’s 5 rookies, when on a good team, maybe you have 2.

    Oh you
    The Oilers are 5 and O, if you haven’t been paying attention

  34. speeds says:

    Lowetide:
    Apple crisp is less than an hour away. Peeled six really good apples and it smells so good!!! We’re in fall and that’s alright with me.

    I think they buy out Ference next summer.

    Certainly possible, but I’m not sure they’d want to eliminate the possibility of moving him at the deadline while retaining half the money by using up all their retained salary transactions now.

  35. ASkoreyko says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Hi kinger_OIL!?!?!?!

  36. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    Apple crisp is less than an hour away. Peeled six really good apples and it smells so good!!! We’re in fall and that’s alright with me.

    I think they buy out Ference next summer.

    Had a bumper crop of apples on the tree this year. Got an attachment to make apple sauce and pumped it out by the bucket-load, sending some away to near everyone I know. Apple crisp is next up for us. It’s going to be all-apple-all-the-time at the WheatNOil house!

    Interestingly, if they decide Davidson is a better bet than Nikitin, they actually save a few hundred thousand on the cap by sending Nikitin down and keeping Davidson.

  37. wheatnoil says:

    If Draisaitl plays up on McDavid’s wing for much of the year… how much does that increase his chances of hitting those big Schedule B bonuses?

    If the Oilers get an overage for next year, it’ll be due to Draisaitl’s Schedule B.

  38. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    Lowetide,

    I froze fresh Taber corn last month. A made from scratch jalapeño corn bread just came out of the over. The fresh, cool early fall mornings bring out the bakers in all of us!!

  39. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    But … but … but … I like Rice Krispie Squares more than I like Black Forest Cake!!

    Perhaps I should have used different objects for the lesson.

    Dark Chocolate Ganache and Nutella?

  40. Younger Oil says:

    Woodguy: Perhaps I should have used different objects for the lesson.

    Dark Chocolate Ganache and Nutella?

    Donuts at the Press Conference and Fruit?

  41. speeds says:

    wheatnoil:
    If Draisaitl plays up on McDavid’s wing for much of the year… how much does that increase his chances of hitting those big Schedule B bonuses?

    If the Oilers get an overage for next year, it’ll be due to Draisaitl’s Schedule B.

    somewhat, but those bonuses are pretty tough to hit, they are for things like top 10 in goals, assists, or points.

  42. Soup Fascist says:

    wheatnoil:
    If Draisaitl plays up on McDavid’s wing for much of the year… how much does that increase his chances of hitting those big Schedule B bonuses?

    If the Oilers get an overage for next year, it’ll be due to Draisaitl’s Schedule B.

    There would be worse problems to have, no? I don’t think the real crunch comes until ’18-’19. Deferring a portion of Drai’s bonus money to next year if he has a big year would be almost exclusively a happy event.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil: Donuts at the Press Conference and Fruit?

    Perfect.

    You forgot:

    *drops mike*

  44. wheatnoil says:

    speeds: somewhat, but those bonuses are pretty tough to hit, they are for things like top 10 in goals, assists, or points.

    Fair enough. He’d be on a line with Hall, who’s done it before and McDavid, who could possibly do it in his rookie season. There’d only be so many points to go around.

    Soup Fascist: There would be worse problems to have, no?I don’t think the real crunch comes until ’18-’19.Deferring a portion ofDrai’s bonus money to next year if he has a big year would be almost exclusively a happy event.

    Oh for sure! That wasn’t meant to be an argument NOT to put him on the line. My line of thinking was that if Drai is on that line and has a chance to hit those bonuses, it could be slightly more important to try to trade a guy like Purcell at half salary mid-season.

  45. kevin says:

    Fixed it for you. … No problem.

    kinger_OIL: – And the Oil will be better, but they are in the playoffs with this roster, whether its Drai or Purcell, or Captain or Nurse, or Sheppy or Gadzic to start the year.

  46. G Money says:

    I’m working on a NerdAlert to try and crack the fancystats mystery that is Nikita Nikitin.

    Why does he look bad by eye and good by fancystats?

    Early returns: where Nikitin really excels relative to others:
    1 – blocked shots (second only to Fayne)
    2 – rebound control (where he’s significantly better than anyone else)

    Anyone remember his play well enough to concur?

  47. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    By blocked shots, do you mean total blocked or blocks as a percent to total shots at net.

  48. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    % age. Ratio of CA/FA.

    That’s one of the mysteries of Nikitin – his CA/60 is quite average to below average (i.e. to the good) for the Oilers.

  49. AsiaOil says:

    As others have said – you can’t have too many rookies in the lineup and expect to get anything other than slapped around – see EDM Oilers circa 2007-2015.

    We are only really talking about who plays 2RW, 13F, 2G & 6-8D. For me – the lineup is set as follows:

    Pou RNH Ebs
    Hall CMD xxx
    Korpse Lander Yak
    Hendricks Letestu Klink
    xxx

    Sekera Fayne
    Klef Shultz
    Reinhart xxx
    xxx xxx

    Talbot
    xxx

    I think that Purcell will be on IR to start with Drai taking his spot. That will give the German a bit of time to prove he can handle the job – up to him to keep it or get sent down after a couple of weeks. Slepy could use some seasoning in the AHL so Gadzooks gets the spare forward job for now – you revisit this when Purcell is ready to come off IR. This decision is pretty easy

    Defense is tougher because you have 2 overpaid vets and a couple of kids jockeying for the final jobs. Like Slepy – Nurse needs some time in the AHL – not a lot – but it will help both him and the team if he spends 40 games in California. Davidson is ready to be a 6-7 dman and you try keep him since I think he will get scooped off waivers by a team like BOS who has both a need and cap issues. I try to keep him on the roster. Gryba brings some things but he has not been anything other than adequate, Nikitin has been adequate for the bottom pair, and Ference is done. Chia has to get rid of one of these three guys (Gryba, Nikitin, Ference) through waivers or trade. I would actually be fine if Chia traded any of them (Gryba included) but my preference would be Ference-Nikitin-Gryba in that order. Then you keep 8 dmen on the roster until you can trade the others as possible over the course of the season. By the end of the year you hope to have the top 5 guys plus Davidson and Nurse – but even Shultz could be dealt this season.

    Goal is straight forward. The Swede with the size and great contract likely gets scooped on waivers – Scrivens will not – so you waive Scrivens and send him to California for insurance if he cannot outplay the Swede. Brossoit still get the majority of starts and you just give Scrivens enough starts to stay active until we need him or he’s traded. It’s a tough business and the team needs to do what’s best for the team – but the best goalie has to win or why bother stating otherwise.

  50. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Huh. The rebound bit is interesting.

    Before going dark, Dellow was looking at shifts with 1 and >1 corsi against and for.

    Is it possible that by preventing 2nd shots, Nikitin reduced the number of shifts with >1 shot attempt against, thus improving corsi against?

    Also, fewer rebound shots would also explain his low high danger shots against, which are probably more likely to be rebounds than other shots.

  51. speeds says:

    G Money,

    Has he been good at both of those historically?

  52. TeeVee says:

    “Steve Smith”: …in much the same way as Pouliot is duplicated in Klinkhammer.

    That’s a perfect way to frame that comparison.

  53. G Money says:

    speeds,

    That’s a good question. I’m just deconstructing his Oiler season at the moment.

    But it’s less of a mystery in Columbus, where Nikitin was (at least as measured by high danger chances against) the worst of the regulars over there his last season. The catch being that he was still better (~13.8 CBJ vs 15.5 in EDM) than any of the Oiler defenders!

  54. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy: The key to moving all of them is getting the Oilers to retain 50% salary.

    No one is touching them on waiver wire due to cap hit.

    These guys are bad on a bad team. JMHO but they just don’t have potential or bring anything to a team period.

  55. Lucinius says:

    Re: The Mystery of Nikitin

    I wonder if the problem (or part of it, at least), in terms of the ‘eye’ and ‘stats’ difference is Ference.

    By that, I mean both look bad for largely the same reason; speed (and the lack thereof). They are both prone to being beaten by the speed of the game. However, after they are beaten things are different; one can defend decently enough when he’s actually close to the opposition, the other can’t.

    So when Ference gets pylon’d and the opposition gets its shot against, if the goalie saves it, rebound pops out and Ference loses the second battle allowing for either maintained control by the opposition, or another shot against. Nikitin, however, is more able to defend after that initial shot and either get the puck out, to another Oiler, or essentially ‘smother’ the play since speed is no longer as important.

    It would jive with what I recall seeing; both being extremely prone to being beat and made to look stupid, but one trending to more sustained chaos than the other. And, as the initial ‘saw him bad’ is exactly the same for both players we basically link the two mentally as being similar levels of bad..

    Or, more simply, Nikitin is very flashy when it comes to his negatives by eye (being beaten routinely, and badly at that), but his defensive ability afterwards is more subtle, and thus less likely to be noted by an observer. Especially when we’re all trained by what happens when Ference gets beat to cringe and cry for mercy.

    Doesn’t read as clearly as it is in my head, but, whatever.

  56. Clay says:

    Hope everyone is getting a chance to see the lunar eclipse tonight.

    Seeing as this sort of phenomenon has always caused people to think great and terrible things are upon us, I’m going to go ahead and expect the mythical 3 for 1 trade announcement tomorrow that brings in a top-pairing dman, and with it LT’s “Balance” picture.

  57. G Money says:

    Lucinius,

    Well, it’s interesting because the fancystats agree with the eye on Ference. When you break down the numbers, Ference is about average at rebounds, surprisingly good at preventing certain nasty shot types from the slot, and really bad at blocking shots.

    But the key is that when he’ s on the ice, the team gives up more shot attempts and more dangerous shot attempts overall than with any other defender – and its not close. Pretty much what you’d expect!

    So I guess that’s part of they mystery – how weirdly dissimilar the fancystats are on those two.

    I think your last two paragraphs are pretty much the truth.

  58. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Just got back from driving up to eagle mountain to get a good look at the Blood Moon. First time in 18 years.

    McDavid changed everything.

  59. Water Fire says:

    G Money:
    I’m working on a NerdAlert to try and crack the fancystats mystery that is Nikita Nikitin.

    Why does he look bad by eye and good by fancystats?

    Early returns: where Nikitin really excels relative to others:
    1 – blocked shots (second only to Fayne)
    2 – rebound control (where he’s significantly better than anyone else)

    Anyone remember his play well enough to concur?

    I think it’s important to remember blocking shots is a sign of problematic play. It means you don’t have the puck or are engaged in a battle for it. It does denote decent recovery and bravery.

    It probably means mobility and/or passing issues in the league as it is.

    To me, a 5-8 defenseman is that because he isn’t good at offense, and therefore is not expensive. Coverage, skating and passing still need to be tops, as in how Davidson looks right now. The paradigm is shifting.

  60. "Steve Smith" says:

    Water Fire: I think it’s important to remember blocking shots is a sign of problematic play. It means you don’t have the puck or are engaged in a battle for it.

    That’s true if your measure is total number of blocked shots. I don’t think it’s the case if, as with G Money’s data, your measure is blocked shot percentage, but I stand open to correction on that point.

    (I do not stand open to correction.)

  61. jp says:

    speeds: Certainly possible, but I’m not sure they’d want to eliminate the possibility of moving him at the deadline while retaining half the money by using up all their retained salary transactions now.

    Is there a limit on retained salary transactions? I was not aware of this.

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: Is there a limit on retained salary transactions? I was not aware of this.

    3 at any one time if I’m not mistaken

  63. jp says:

    G Money:
    I’m working on a NerdAlert to try and crack the fancystats mystery that is Nikita Nikitin.

    Why does he look bad by eye and good by fancystats?

    Early returns: where Nikitin really excels relative to others:
    1 – blocked shots (second only to Fayne)
    2 – rebound control (where he’s significantly better than anyone else)

    Anyone remember his play well enough to concur?

    He fared pretty well by Ricki’s box protection metric too, did he not? (as did Fayne if I remember correctly)

  64. AsiaOil says:

    Bottom line for the #5-8 dmen – and I think we keep 8 on the roster – is that one of Ference, Nikitin or Gryba must go. I don’t particularly care which – but Nikitin is a bit less horrible than Ference while Gryba brings a physical element that neither of the other two has. I’ll be well pleased if we can get rid of one now – then a second in-season – and the final one over the summer (likely Ference). But if Chia can off-load Ference before the season starts at little or no longterm cost – I’ll light joss sticks in his honor.

  65. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    speeds,

    That’s a good question.I’m just deconstructing his Oiler season at the moment.

    But it’s less of a mystery in Columbus, where Nikitin was (at least as measured by high danger chances against) the worst of the regulars over there his last season.The catch being that he was still better (~13.8 CBJ vs 15.5 in EDM) than any of the Oiler defenders!

    System and team effects would play into the absolute number.

    That said, whether the rebound clearing is a repeatable skill is a really important question. If it’s not, then your study is really more descriptive of what happened last year than it is predictive of this coming year.

    If it’s consistently correlated to HD scoring chances against… well that’d be a pretty cool finding.

  66. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: 3 at any one time if I’m not mistaken

    Makes sense. Thanks.

  67. rickithebear says:

    G money:
    Re: nikitin.
    you have figured out the pretty skating pleases the eye.

    But the game is won or lost in front of the net.
    Medium and High Chance shots @ even and on PP/PK

    the guys who protect the box.
    do not cater to
    the eye pleasing D spectrum.
    1. the meat head “Chase the hit” abandonong the net types.
    See dion Phanuef.
    2. The pretty skating offensive D who abandon the net types.
    See Schultz

    Give me the med and High chance shot serial kilers D.
    Nikitin; Fayne, etc.

    After a few years of data we start to understand.
    1. you need coach that emphasizes protecting the net.
    All you have to do is look at conf fnal coaches that repeat.
    Guys like: Sutter; Tortarella; Vigneault; Babcock; Tmac…..
    no chance without that type of coach.

    2. Look for d with success under this kind of coach.
    and determine there suited comp at elite reduction of Med and High chance shots.
    Fayne the best d in game for 4 years. he did it against 1st comp. 10.05
    Sekera well suited for elite 1st/2nd comp play under Ruff/Sutter. 12.05
    Nikitin in CBJ facing 2nd comp under richards 13.14 total – 12.63; 12.71; 13.84

    3. Find the most repetitive Elite save% goalies at med/highchance shots in Even and special teams play. Talbot & Schnieder

    G money you are just realizing our D was designed to win the lottery.
    The introductions from MacT and Pc in last 18 months were meant to chase the cup.

  68. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Yeah, I don’t think there’s anything earth shaking there, Ricki. This isn’t demonstrating that Nikitin is good at what he does. Only that he may do some subtle things well that make him better than Ference, who is unquestionably terrible, and who Nikitin is still lumped in with.

    I’ll still take Petry any day of the week.

    (BTW, regarding your interpretation of the stats: Petry was the best on the Oilers last year at preventing high danger chances, and Nikitin was the worst on the Blue Jackets the year before).

  69. rickithebear says:

    G money:
    priorities.
    1. ZS
    2. comp…..

    Nikitin last year was 1st comp 15.62 HSCA/60

    Petry:
    10-11 2nd comp 14.52
    11-12 1st comp 17.58
    12-13 1st comp 20.69
    13-14 1st comp 17.45
    14-15 2nd comp 15.27

    petry’s
    1st comp average was 18.28 HSCA/60
    2nd comp was 14.99 HSCA/60

    Nikitin
    1st comp EDM 15.62
    2nd comp CBJ 13.14

    I am very glad 5.5M went to Sekera.

    It is also pleasing to see a person like you
    who has the ability to do what I could not 5 years ago.
    Strip the VB x,y and 6 player event data sets that you are breaking down now.

    Common sense structured units are.
    D, goalie units
    3 forward units.
    Center, D, Goalie units
    3 forwards, 2 D and Golaie units.

    You are seeing in stripped out data results what i saw in my mind.
    That is likely failing me now.

  70. Lois Lowe says:

    Keith Aulie is available. They could bring him back to anchor the first pair with Sekeraj. I think they may even be able to find a used Fistric on the trash heap.

  71. rickithebear says:

    Another interesting trend is take the 30 best Save% for each year and put the goalies height.
    You have to assume the pi and Phi ratios in the human body are conistent.

    Taller guys are expected to have Knee to shoulder height and reach superiority reflected in were they rank in Save%.

    These lengths would be nice to see.

  72. rickithebear says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Keith Aulie is available. They could bring him back to anchor the first pair with Sekeraj. I think they may even be able to find a used Fistric on the trash heap.

    Aulie
    10-11 TOR 1st comp 21.64
    11-12 TOR/TMP 1st comp 20.17
    12-13 TMP 3rd/4th comp 15.94
    13-14 TMP 3rd comp 17.53
    14-15 EDM 3rd/4th comp 20.98

    Aulie not so good.

    Fistric
    7-8 DAL 3rd comp 11.92 tipett
    8-9 DAL 3rd comp 14.39 tipett
    9-10 DAL 3rd/4th comp 13.09 Crawford
    10-11 DAL 3rd comp 15.63 Crawford
    11-12 DAL 3rd/4th 12.42 Gulutzan
    12-13 EDM 2nd comp 19.11 Krueger
    13-14 ANA 3rd/4th 15.72 boudreau

    07-08 to 14-15 Fistric was the best net protection d in Dallas.
    he averaged 13.40 and was a repetitive top20 PK D.

    Keep enjoying the skating! 🙂

  73. Yeti says:

    Lucinius: Or, more simply, Nikitin is very flashy when it comes to his negatives by eye (being beaten routinely, and badly at that), but his defensive ability afterwards is more subtle, and thus less likely to be noted by an observer. Especially when we’re all trained by what happens when Ference gets beat to cringe and cry for mercy.

    Yes. Our Niki is the Rasputin of the defensive corps. He is a master of the dark arts: his deception is so great to fool even G Money. He sucks forwards in as they glide by him leaving him seemingly disheveled and inebriated on the ice, only for him to crop up where they least expect it, subtly clearing the zone with no-one quite sure how he pulled it off. God, I hope we keep him.

  74. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Lucinius,

    Well, it’s interesting because the fancystats agree with the eye on Ference.When you break down the numbers, Ference is about average at rebounds, surprisingly good at preventing certain nasty shot types from the slot, and really bad at blocking shots.

    But the key is that when he’ s on the ice, the team gives up more shot attempts and more dangerous shot attempts overall than with any other defender – and its not close.Pretty much what you’d expect!

    So I guess that’s part of they mystery – how weirdly dissimilar the fancystats are on those two.

    I think your last two paragraphs are pretty much the truth.

    To my recollection and bias when Nikitin gets the puck in the dzone, the next player to have the puck is an Oiler via pass.

    When Ference gets the puck in the dzone the next player to have the puck is the opposition via poor pass or “off the glass and out” where the opposition re-load for another sortie.

  75. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: To my recollection and bias when Nikitin gets the puck in the dzone, the next player to have the puck is an Oiler via pass.

    When Ference gets the puck in the dzone the next player to have the puck is the opposition via poor pass or “off the glass and out” where the opposition re-load for another sortie.

    Eyes look for defensive D denying access and good offensive D rushing the puck, but how much do fans and gms underestimate the value of excellent reads and passes? We hear about shutdown and scoring d but less about outstanding zone exit d. There is a 3rd dimension. Look behind the bookcase.

  76. G Money says:

    Woodguy: To my recollection and bias when Nikitin gets the puck in the dzone, the next player to have the puck is an Oiler via pass.

    When Ference gets the puck in the dzone the next player to have the puck is the opposition via poor pass or “off the glass and out” where the opposition re-load for another sortie.

    Going to quote you if you don’t mind.

  77. The fancystats mystery that was Nikita Nikitin | Oilers Nerd Alert says:

    […] what explains Nikitin’s OK (for the Oilers) possession numbers is his passing ability.  To quote WoodGuy on the […]

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