I LEFT MY WALLET IN EL SEGUNDO

When I was writing this morning’s post, I almost left out the option of sending down Leon Draisaitl:

  • Brandon Davidson waivers. It’s a quick, easy move and even though it risks losing him this is the day to do it because there could be three teams worth of players on the wire.
  • Griffin Reinhart. It gives the Oilers a chance to watch GR develop a little more in the minors and as we’ve talked there are some cap bonus issues that would be burned off with time in the AHL.
  • Andrew Ference. This would require Ference to agree to a move and Edmonton would have to swallow (likely) half the contract and add a painful sweetener but that’s probably their top option. The problem is finding a dance partner.
  • Anton Slepyshev could be sent down, it’s probably the most logical move of the bunch.
  • Leon Draisaitl could be sent down, there are some bonus opportunities that could burn just like GR.
  • Matt Hendricks hurt his hand, could go on IR.
  • Luke Gazdic waivers.
  • Rob Klinkhammer waivers.

Why did I almost leave it out? The reason for sending him down didn’t ring true to me. As it turns out, the Oilers sent Leon to Bakersfield for another reason:

I’m going to guess performance in the last week or so contributed to Leon’s downfall, and the mysterious wording on Slepyshev’s options if he didn’t make the NHL team are also interesting. I would have kept Leon, and believe this is a mistake, but we’ll see. Draisaitl was one of the reasons the 3line had an offensive gear, and Lauri Korpikoski isn’t going to have the same kind of creativity with Anton Lander and Nail Yakupov. That’s my belief, Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli see it another way. They’re the professionals and made the bet to go ‘defense and experience’ over ‘youth and chaos’ at this time. It’s probably wise.

EDMONTON OILERS 2015-16

OILERS OC 5

Fascinating to see what that blue looks like Thursday. I’ve read a few people online suggesting Ference plays opening night because he’s captain, but Todd McLellan says they’ll ice the lineup that gives the Oilers their best chance to win. We wait.

Music! These two men need to play and that’s exactly what they’ll do in Norfolk. Godspeed to both of them and here’s hoping they get to the AHL later this season. Gene Vincent is from Norfolk, interesting place.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2015-16

CONDORS OC 5

This is a fabulous minor league team. Leon’s going to be a monster in the AHL, I would like to see Yakimov on his line just to scare the beJesus out of people.

WAIVERS

Peter Chiarelli’s words didn’t encourage the idea of a waiver claim but there are some talented men available for not much. Here’s a list of players who caught my eye.

  • D Frank Corrado, Vancouver. Surprised he’s available, this is a pretty nice hockey player. He’s 22, has 28 NHL games to his credit and a range of skills. Effective at moving the puck, good defender. Undersized for the NHL game, I would be pleased if Edmonton grabbed him. RH D.
  • R Linden Vey, Vancouver. It’s easy to overlook this player but Vey is 24, scored 10-14-24 in the NHL last season. His possession numbers aren’t grand and Vey won’t be a match for every team, but NJD or similar probably should take a look.
  • G J-F Berube, LAK. He’s .913SP in the AHL the last two seasons, 24-years old and probably as good as a bunch of NHL backups.
  • L Jonathan Marchessaul, Tampa Bay. He’s a small (5.09) skill winger who is at a point-per-game in the AHL, age 24.

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101 Responses to "I LEFT MY WALLET IN EL SEGUNDO"

  1. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Hunter…since no one seems to have claimed it, wedge me in for 100 pts. No doubt overly optimistic but it beckoned I guess.

  2. Spoils says:

    Obviously Sleppy has been a dream, and this should only help LD develop. The contracts shouldn’t matter, it should be about winning games.

    Looking at the Oiler’s without Eberle, we really don’t have a complete line – Purcell is not a first line winger on a playoff team. Sleppy is not a second line winger on a playoff team.

    and our D is not a D of a playoff team…

    fingers crossed.

  3. D says:

    Wouldn’t mind seeing some early season trades on the big team in order to open up spots for some of the players in Bakersfield.

  4. wheatnoil says:

    D:
    Wouldn’t mind seeing some early season trades on the big team in order to open up spots for some of the players in Bakersfield.

    Injuries will open up spots in time. Last year started with a glut as well and by the end they were signing up a cast of PTOs from the ECHL to fill the void. Winquist started in the ECHL and was playing in the top 6 at times by the end.

  5. russ99 says:

    I don’t get the Chase move. Are we developing our prospects or trying to turn Bakersfield into a team of AHL checking forwards? Seems to be more the latter.

  6. Czar says:

    Blowhard’s take on hockey, analytics and McDavid. I’d suggest you have a beverage handy folks!

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/shows/tim-and-sid-show/burke-last-year-wasnt-a-peak-for-us/

  7. Czar says:

    “Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, useful for support but not necessarily for illumination”
    Brian Burke Oct.5/15

  8. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    I don’t get the Chase move. Are we developing our prospects or trying to turn Bakersfield into a team of AHL checking forwards? Seems to be more the latter.

    Once the injured guys come back, like Pakarinen, there would be no room. This is the smart play.

  9. OilClog says:

    I’d take Slep today, he’s further along as a winger then Drai is.

    Drai needs to just master his arts and be patient, Purcell will be moved at some point.

    Chia might like Drai at centre, but Tmac has no use for him up the middle as it stands.

    Which of the four gets moved? Lander seems too perfect for 3C. In two years icing Nuge and Baby Jesus will be icing two Dats.. Drai is too good to be capped for a 3rd line role on the wing. None of them will or should ever see the 4th… Soooooooo

    At some point does Nuge move to the wing? Does Jesus move to the wing? Would the puck be able to keep pace? Hall for OEL? Hahahahahahahaha

    16/17
    Hall/Jesus/Nuge
    Pou/Drai/Ebs/Yak/Slep..

    If Tmac can get Yak rehabilitated.. Trade options for everyone!

    If Chia has his way.. Who’s moving out for Leon’s up the middle ice time eventually 🙁

  10. blainer says:

    Ok I deserve to get shit here for expecting to see Dry in the opening night lineup. I am very surprised to see a 3rd overall draft pick start his draft plus two season in the minors . That just doesn’t happen as we have to go back to Kyle Turris to find a comparable. Not really sure how to take this.I hope he turns into Ryan Johanssen..

    It looks like Slappy flat out beat him and I’m OK with that.. This move along with Nurse NN and Scrivens really shows there is a new sheriff in town.. Gotta like it.. Hope your feeling much better today G Money.. Scrivens cleared as expected.. Goaltending actually looks pretty good this year as we now have options looking over Talbot and Nilsson’s shoulders.

  11. Dicky94 says:

    If Slepy has a great October, I wonder if Teddy gets shipped out once Eberle is healthy. Other teams by then should know if they need some offence. Hopefully Teddy lights it up as well.

  12. meanashell11 says:

    Given what our schedule looks like in October I am glad Leon is heading to Bakersfield. There’s a good chance we have a team of shell shocked players come November 1. Geez, that schedule is tough.

  13. stephen sheps says:

    so for years we’ve been screaming about the dangers of rushing/ruining our prospects and then praying to the hockey gords and stan weir’s beard (peace be upon him) for this magical thing called depth.

    Suddenly we have a coach and a GM who seems to understand both of these concepts. I’m not worried for a minute about LD’s development being hindered by AHL time. He’s coming back, it’s just a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ (and who might get shipped out when it happens). We can say the exact same about Nurse.

    So to summarize:
    depth? check
    un-rushed development strategy? check
    balanced roster? well… 2/3 ain’t bad

    Finally, congrats to Anton Slepyshev for making the team out of camp. He must be thrilled.

  14. Магия 10 says:

    I’ll take 8:09.

  15. The Hermit says:

    They left their wallet in El Segundo

    http://youtu.be/WILyWmT2A-Q

  16. hunter1909 says:

    The Hermit:
    They left their wallet in El Segundo

    http://youtu.be/WILyWmT2A-Q

    Entertaining. 8 out of 10(And I’m a hella hard marker).

  17. hunter1909 says:

    OilClog: If Tmac can get Yak rehabilitated.. Trade options for everyone!

    Mannnnnn…

    So Yak finally turns the corner(imo it’s his sophomore season) only to get traded!?

    Let’s see…Eberle’s out …Yak get the boot…

    Who you gonna play on RW? As in scoring a big goal? Anson Carter?

  18. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Mannnnnn…

    So Yak finally turns the corner(imo it’s his sophomore season) only to get traded!?

    Let’s see…Eberle’s out …Yak get the boot…

    Who you gonna play on RW? As in scoring a big goal? Anson Carter?

    Marc Pouliot bitches!!!!!

  19. JDï™ says:

    Hall’s answer to what he thought about the roster moves:

    “It’s great – it’s kind of the roster you thought would happen – we’re not a perfect team yet, but we’re going to maximize our abilities as a roster, and that hasn’t happened in previous years…”

    Straight from the Hall.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=840468&navid=DL|EDM|home

  20. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide: Marc Pouliot bitches!!!!!

    A chicken in every oven, a car in every garage, a Pou on every wing.

  21. hoser313 says:

    Ok with them sending Draisatl down.

    Guys he’s still a potential stud centre.

    Let him get big minutes playing pro centre instead of mediocre third line winger minutes.

  22. One-Timer says:

    JDï™,

    You get the sense that Hallsy would like to just come out and tell the world what a bunch of shits have been running his team since he got here.

  23. Drew says:

    One-Timer:
    JDï™,

    You get the sense that Hallsy would like to just come out and tell the world what a bunch of shits have been running his team since he got here.

    Sure feels like Hall and McD’s camp are very happy the BOTB group is in the process of drying up and blowing away. there had to have been some “concerns” raised around draft time?

  24. Lowetide says:

    Drew: Sure feels like Hall and McD’s camp are very happy the BOTB group is in the process of drying up and blowing away. there had to have been some “concerns” raised around draft time?

    Yes.

  25. John Chambers says:

    Drew,

    I can imagine that either Hall’s agent requested a trade to either Nicholson or Katz, and / or McDavid’s agent suggested they would pull a Lindros.

    It could’ve been really fugly, but it’s coming up roses.

  26. Johnny Larue says:

    Hunter put me down for 101 that is what I predicted in a previous thread this weekend . If you are going to be optimistic might as well go all in. I think if the team gets off to a good start it could go super nova .

  27. Магия 10 says:

    One-Timer:
    JDï™,

    You get the sense that Hallsy would like to just come out and tell the world what a bunch of shits have been running his team since he got here.

    He did.

    Taylor Hall @hallsy04 Jun 26. Welcome to Edmonton, Connor. Don’t mess up everything we’ve built the last 5 years!

  28. reckless restraint says:

    Unrelated OHL update:

    Oilers OHL scout James McGregor lives in Ancaster (Hamilton suburb). Was at yesterday’s game between the Bulldogs and the Greyhounds. Suspect he’ll be a regular in the stands checking out the Bulldogs competition. If the Oilers pick an OHL player in the spring, bet he plays in the Eastern Conference.

  29. jake70 says:

    Магия 10: He did.

    Taylor Hall @hallsy04 Jun 26. Welcome to Edmonton, Connor. Don’t mess up everything we’ve built the last 5 years!

    This comment only few months old, wouldn’t want my captain saying something like this, however a propos it is. (note – I am not trying to run Hall out of town!)

  30. Lowetide says:

    jake70: This comment only few months old, wouldn’t want my captain saying something like this, however a propos it is.(note – I am not trying to run Hall out of town!)

    8:09 Mountain, Oct. 5 2015: Jake 70 begins his campaign.

  31. jake70 says:

    Lowetide: 8:09 Mountain, Oct. 5 2015: Jake 70 begins his campaign.

    I am Veradad in disguise. 😉

  32. AsiaOil says:

    It was obvious that Hall wanted out if the previous mgmt group remained (and he was likely not the only one) and it’s doubtful that McDavid would have agreed to sign under those circumstances. After all the abuse EDM fans endured since 2006 from the BOTB – the lottery “luck” last spring and the changes it produced were well deserved.

    Drai is in the AHL for one reason – McDavid is in his center slot – no shame in being displaced for a brief period by a generational talent.

  33. Магия 10 says:

    jake70: I am Veradadin disguise.?

    So only A’s until OEL is compelted to be Captain?

  34. geowal says:

    Hall: “It’s been nice to play preseason with the guys you’re going to play with going into the season”

  35. dangilitis says:

    geowal:
    Hall: “It’s been nice to play preseason with the guys you’re going to play with going into the season”

    And contrast that with vrbatas comments – something like: I would really like to know who I’ll be playing with this year so we can maybe learn each other’s tendencies…

  36. wheatnoil says:

    Магия 10: So only A’s until OEL is compelted to be Captain?

    At which point he’ll have the C and all the As because he’ll be the only one left on the team.

  37. Магия 10 says:

    wheatnoil: At which point he’ll have the C and all the As because he’ll be the only one left on the team.

    It would be simpler to trade teams like Ballard wanted. Or even simpler to trade Mr. V. for a Yotes fan who wants Maloney fired for not compelting Chia to hand over CMD.

  38. JDï™ says:

    One-Timer:
    JDï™,

    You get the sense that Hallsy would like to just come out and tell the world what a bunch of shits have been running his team since he got here.

    https://d13csqd2kn0ewr.cloudfront.net/uploads/image/file/39252/cropped_Eakins.gif?ts=1395548895

  39. RexLibris says:

    Czar:
    “Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, useful for support but not necessarily for illumination”
    Brian BurkeOct.5/15

    Which is why Burke, not long ago, trumpeted the Flames as having the “best guy in analytics” in their pay.

    So would that mean that, by his own estimation, the Flames employ the best fact-checker in the league?

    What Brian Burke has to say about analytics and their usefulness and applicability to the sport has about as much relevance for me as what a dog might opine on the state of foreign capital investment.

  40. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: 8:09 Mountain, Oct. 5 2015: Jake 70 begins his campaign.

    DAMMIT!

    I had 8:17 in the pool.

    Cripes I can never win these things!

  41. Магия 10 says:

    RexLibris: DAMMIT!

    I had 8:17 in the pool.

    Cripes I can never win these things!

    What did I win?

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/10/05/i-left-my-wallet-in-el-segundo/comment-page-1/#comment-451298

    Edit buttons really need to expire.

  42. JDï™ says:

    RexLibris: I had 8:17 in the pool.

    I heard that bookije won that pool anyway. Predicted it from the womb, if I’m not mistaken.

  43. BONVIE says:

    Does anyone else think a Draisatel move indicates an extra spot is actually being made here to make room for us being able to make a waiver claim of our own? For instance a forward claimed that could play on our 2 nd line would enable us to expose a Gadzdic or Klinkhammer, but if the better player doesn’t come available you can always recall Draisatel and make your decision on the original player you were thinking of waiving likely Gadzic, Davidson or by then Ference will have been dealt with.

    This waiving will buy extra time, but if the Oilers don’t make a claim I’m not sure they can afford not to have Draisatel in that group of forwards in the abscence of Eberle for 6 weeks.

    I am not sure if this is accurate but I seen the Flames had waived Raymond, a player like this might be helpful in Eberle’s absence, except of course he is a left winger, and a Right winger is what we need.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    JDï™: I heard that bookije won that pool anyway. Predicted it from the womb, if I’m not mistaken.

    That”s the problem with bookje. He always insists on getting the first word in.

  45. G Money says:

    When.
    Does.
    Hockey.
    Start?

    I WANT HOCKEY!

    HOCKEY!

    (you know – so I have something to ignore while I’m working on my spreadsheets)

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I give Hall a lot of credit for gutting it out as long as he did. Look at his mother even telling the press he wants to be part of the turnaround.

    To Jake’s point, then Nuge isn’t fit to wear the C, either, because he basically said Krueger was the man and they should have never fired him.

    I would be happy to have either Hall or Nuge captain, but I am guessing they run with only As this season.

  47. sliderule says:

    I said that Draisaitl was going down.

    He got rocked in the corners in Canucks game and he needs to learn how to handle NHL defenceman

    I would expect that Chia if he makes an early trade for a D like say Larson will include Leon

  48. spoiler says:

    hunter1909: Entertaining. 8 out of 10(And I’m a hella hard marker).

    Hunter, if I were you, I wouldn’t even bother reading the last thread. 409 posts by DSF and his detractors; really it’s as frustrating as following Canadian politics without the aid of liquor. Isn’t it bad enough we’re in the midst of a campaign? Who wants to feel more of that?

    On a completely unrelated note I will take 91 points in the Bataan Death Pool.

  49. hags9k says:

    Магия 10,

    Have to wonder how MacT and the BOTB take that when Hall says the roster has not been maximized in previous seasons. Zing.

    MacT and Howson probably stormed PC’s office and insisted he be traded. How dare he! Luckily, all PC could hear when they spoke was Charlie Brown’s teacher, so he calmly put his headphones back on and continued grooving to Tribe Called Quest.

  50. BONVIE says:

    sliderule:
    I said that Draisaitl was going down.

    He got rocked in the corners in Canucks game and he needs to learn how to handle NHL defenceman

    I would expect that Chia if he makes an early trade for a D like say Larson will include Leon

    I strongly disagree Draisaitl is available because our need for top 6 forwards with size is still pressing he’s one of the few that fits the bill. Yakapov still is the assett that is most likely being offered, but he needs to get his game established as his last two years probably have his value well below a top four Dman.

  51. JDï™ says:

    Looks like Slepy is back to being listed at 194 lbs:

    42 Anton Slepyshev L 6′ 2″ 194 13 May 1994 21 Penza, RUS

  52. G Money says:

    JDï™,

    Wow. That IS a tough training camp.

  53. jp says:

    JDï™:
    Looks like Slepy is back to being listed at 194 lbs:

    42Anton SlepyshevL6′ 2″19413 May 199421Penza, RUS

    Was he biking with TCAF through camp? Damn.

  54. Kitchener says:

    JDï™,

    Maybe he got Marincin’s old water bottle.

  55. böök¡je says:

    As an outside observer I have seen Oilers management and coaching make terrible decision after terrible decision during Hall’s time here. Furthermore, I have heard them say a lot of things that are clearly absolute nonsense, often demonstrating a lack of basic management and/or hockey principles. The results have been highly disappointing – dismal at best. The team has had no hope.

    I can only imagine what it looked like as an insider!!!

    Honestly, the fact that Hall didn’t demand a trade a year or two ago (publicly at least) demonstrates his extreme dedication to this team.

    I suspect quite a few people spoke with Katz following the McDavid win. I imagine one of them was Gary Bettman. It probably also included some agents from players on the team. Likely the guy at Elite Starbucks (its like regular Starbucks, but they spell your name correctly – you have to be a billionaire to get in) and everyone else too.

  56. böök¡je says:

    As a side note, TMac is a very impressive guy in his press availabilities.

  57. Магия 10 says:

    Kitchener:
    JDï™,

    Maybe he got Marincin’s old water bottle.

    Or the bike he ran over a gypsy.

  58. Магия 10 says:

    böök¡je: I can only imagine what it looked like as an insider!!!

    Tend to think Nicholson was Lowe’s parting shot (in a good way), that Bettman and possibly Orr were generally aware of post audit plans and that when 97 was drafted there were quick nods all around to start your engines.

  59. JDï™ says:

    G Money,

    jp,

    Kitchener,

    BAH! Chairreli isntany better then MacT or Howsojn at gettin players vitals’ right.

  60. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Very much on topic for the Hunter Death or Glory contest. But mostly a pre-emptive “don’t panic” article, because the Oilers are going to have a *really* tough time of it through the first 20 games.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/expect-the-improved-edmonton-oilers-to-run-just-400-to-the-quarter-pole/

  61. jp says:

    A lot of talk last thread about season over season point increases.

    For some context, the record (I believe) is the SJ Sharks going from 24 to 82 Pts (+58) from 92-93 to 93-94.

    To look at the more recent past, I checked how the bottom 3 finishers in a given year did the following year going back to 05-06 (9 season to season comparisons).

    On average the bottom 3 finishers improved by 16 points in the +1 year (pro-rating the 12-13 lockout year to 82GP).

    7 of the 27 bottom 3 finishers made the playoffs in year +1 (26%).

    And 5 of the 27 teams improved by 30 or more Pts:
    06-07 Pens +47
    13-14 Avs +45
    07-08 Flyers +39
    13-14 Lightning +33
    12-13 Canadiens +30

    The probabilities certainly aren`t favouring the Oilers jumping into the playoffs. But at the same time, it`s not at all unusual for that type of year over year improvement to happen. There wouldn`t be anything terribly remarkable about the Oilers going from the basement to the playoffs.

  62. G Money says:

    I just want to give a little shout-out to our leader, LT.

    The article I just posted above was drafted two months ago, after I put the first version of my standings models together.

    Since then, I reworked, edited, fixed, etc. the models a 100 times. They’ve had more work done on them than the cast of Real Housewives.

    Then I edited and edited and edited the snot out of the article. (I partially blame you lot for distracting me with all your argumentifying and logisticating on backup goalies on Sunday:-) !!!)

    I really hit the publish button – and this is normal – after I just got too fatigued to reread and rewrite yet again.

    And somehow, LT publishes TWO of these suckers a day, pretty much every day.

    No idea how he does it. Incroyable.

  63. JDï™ says:

    G Money: amirite?

    uarrite.

  64. BONVIE says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Very much on topic for the Hunter Death or Glory contest.But mostly a pre-emptive “don’t panic” article, because the Oilers are going to have a *really* tough time of it through the first 20 games.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/expect-the-improved-edmonton-oilers-to-run-just-400-to-the-quarter-pole/

    Interesting article. Hopefully it will temper expectations compounding the tougher early quarter schedule with Eberle’s injury, and implementing the new coaches structured system.

    Myself I have been thinking about game 1 with St. Louis I believe for the Oilers that is there toughest matchup style wise in the whole league to have to open the season with. It will be a huge test, and as optimistic I am about this season I have to temper my enthusiasm. I have over estimated the Oilers potential every year for the last 6 years with the exception of last season, where I pretty much came to reality and my Oilers goggles got broken by the reality of Eakins as the coach slapping me in the face. I picked the Oilers for 95 points so clearly I must have put the goggles back on.

  65. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    I just want to give a little shout-out to our leader, LT.

    The article I just posted above was drafted two months ago, after I put the first version of my standings models together.

    Since then, I reworked, edited, fixed, etc. the models a 100 times.They’ve had more work done on them than the cast of Real Housewives.

    Then I edited and edited and edited the snot out of the article.(I partially blame you lot for distracting me with all your argumentifying and logisticating on backup goalies on Sunday:-) !!!)

    I really hit the publish button – and this is normal – after I just got too fatigued to reread and rewrite yet again.

    And somehow, LT publishes TWO of these suckers a day, pretty much every day.

    No idea how he does it. Incroyable.

    Seconded.

    I’ve gone through the same process. Write. Edit. Rewrite. Edit. Double check numbers. Triple check numbers. Edit. Re-read. Edit. Add. Subtract. Edit. Finally forced to publish before the season either begins or ends, whichever event will make said article moot. Or moo, as has been discussed.

    I’ve found that the process above has been streamlined after several years of doing this on a definitively amateur level, therefore I can only assume that the prodigious nature of Mr. Mitchell’s contributions to the Oilogosphere is the result of a heady balance of passion, experience, and preparation.

    Twice a day and his odometer is reading heavy numbers.

    We should all be so fortunate in our lives.

    🙂

    BTW – a sincere thank you for the RT earlier today, LT. Much appreciated. Thank you.

  66. Diesel says:

    In case your name is ironic…

    Diesel:
    Hunter:

    I’ll jump in with 99 points.

    Because Mike Grier was my favourite Oiler growing up and wore number 25. Yakupov has a special place in my heart and used to wear 64. I own both of their jerseys.

    Oh and add another 10 because that’s Yak’s new number.

    99 points. Duh!

  67. Lloyd B. says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Very much on topic for the Hunter Death or Glory contest.But mostly a pre-emptive “don’t panic” article, because the Oilers are going to have a *really* tough time of it through the first 20 games.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/expect-the-improved-edmonton-oilers-to-run-just-400-to-the-quarter-pole/

    Very nicely done. What I don’t see here is all the work that you, our Guy with the Woodie, the Swedish contributor, and ( I can’t remember the other guys name that has done crazy work on the the subject) … ” it’s the goalering stupid”.

    Can’t we add 10-15 points based on getting even slightly less than league average goaltending? So …94 or so?

  68. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Put me down for 84 points.

  69. BONVIE says:

    G Money:
    I just want to give a little shout-out to our leader, LT.

    The article I just posted above was drafted two months ago, after I put the first version of my standings models together.

    Since then, I reworked, edited, fixed, etc. the models a 100 times.They’ve had more work done on them than the cast of Real Housewives.

    Then I edited and edited and edited the snot out of the article.(I partially blame you lot for distracting me with all your argumentifying and logisticating on backup goalies on Sunday:-) !!!)

    I really hit the publish button – and this is normal – after I just got too fatigued to reread and rewrite yet again.

    And somehow, LT publishes TWO of these suckers a day, pretty much every day.

    No idea how he does it. Incroyable.

    I agree with you 100% I have often been amazed at Lowtides dedication to churn out quality articles daily not only on this site but on Oilers Nation. I sometimes got so discouraged with being an Oilers fan I wouldnt check out sites or Oilers news for weeks and would come to this site and I’d have a month worth of reading to catch up on. Through the bleakest of times LT just keeps churning out the quality.

    I remember finding this site I think it might have been relatively new then when I stopped reading Copper and Blue due to less and less Bruce Mccurdy articles and more and more Derek Zona articles.

    I usually don’t post here that often but I often will read all of the other comments and actually enjoy the opinions of the other posters here, even if I don’t agree with what’s said I appreciate certain posters data and research to support there opinions I find it very interesting. I usually don’t post much just because I don’t have the time to post and engage, especially when I’m often reading on an iPad or iPhone lately, I recently looked back towards the beginning and read archives it’s funny to see most of the regulars were there even back then, although I mostly remember DSF.

    Kudos to Lowtide for years of Quality here at this site and extra points for continuing on through the darkest of times.

  70. innercitysmytty says:

    Hunter, put me down for 97 points.

  71. G Money says:

    Lloyd B.,

    Thanks man.

    As far as this upcoming season goes, I totally understand why posters on here are sometimes crazy optimistic.

    If everything this year breaks right for this team it could be an incredible year:
    – if Cam Talbot is as good as he’s shown he could be
    – when not if McDavid goes supernova
    – when not if RNH’s scoring goes supernova
    – if Hall can stay mostly healthy
    – if Yak’s stick finally starts finding the net consistently
    – if Schultz can stay with this new improved grittier style of Defense
    – if Reinhart grows into a top notch shutdown guy

    Now if all of those things happen, and they could, then yeah it’s going to be an incredible year.

    But I’m used to being disappointed! For example, the injury to Jordan Eberle just seems par for the Oiler course.

    So really when I say 82 points I’m taking all those optimistic things and scaling a bunch of them back to a harsher historical reality.

    But boy would I love to be wrong.

  72. G Money says:

    BONVIE,

    Yeah, it’s going to be a slog. Don’t forget, we play STL twice in the first four games.

  73. Lloyd B. says:

    G Money,

    I’ll take the over on you being wrong this year. 🙂 It just has to happen one of these years doesn’t it? There are way too many parts being right. D notwithstanding !! 2 years and we’re Gold Jerry.. Gold!.

    This year I’d even take one of those outlier years that other teams (last years plegms) get from time to time. Call it a bridge year !! Call it hope !! Call it…I’ve had enough of being on the wrong side of the outliers!!

  74. hunter1909 says:

    Sam Gagner set for Press Box duty to open the Flyer’s season.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    G Money: Don’t forget, we play STL twice in the first four games.

    Everyone prays for St Louis in the playoffs.

  76. v4ance says:

    Too busy at work to post lately but mark me down for an overly optimistic 98 points. Not quite a Gretzky but a little more than McDavid!

  77. BONVIE says:

    hunter1909:
    Sam Gagner set for Press Box duty to open the Flyer’s season.

    Speaking of Gagner see if you can recognize this poster. I clipped a short paragraph out from his site, I think he was finally banned at some point from here for his essay posts.

    “NEVER SURRENDER opportunitys to score goals within our 60mins,we play a style that iniates us ALL into that mindset because we are ALL equally responsible for scoreing goals so we all quickly learn that we can score from literally anywhere and literally anyone can be the trigger man,and if our system dictates it the same player can have a big night like the 8 point night a center named Sam Gagner had for a team called the Edmonton Oilers,that game was a byproduct of this type of system execution.If you Google it you will see how naturally Sam scored those points and how he could have literally had three or so more points that game,all through system awareness and team commitment to that system execution,in that game Sam had to step outside of the hybrid system his team was playing and institute core value additions for 60mins,but the consistant application showed consistant results for a full 60mins and he even refused a late shift and a chance to pad his numbers which he professionally refused,showing his respect for those who played before him and refuseing to take easy non-system generated points. ”
    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread839767/pg1

  78. OrangeandBlue says:

    BONVIE,

    Is that from NewAgeSys? On a different note, I think they’ll get 95 points this year!

  79. BONVIE says:

    G Money:
    Can’t stop laughing at the headline.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/laurenstrapagiel/purple-wizard-man-we-are-not-worthy?utm_term=.ioe8POqEG#.giaJ6Wbmg

    Probably not quite the celebrity endorsement they need, I think Donald Sutherland added a bit more respectability, unless this is what is considered cool with the young Hipsters these days.

    Live on on purple wizard man!!

  80. BONVIE says:

    OrangeandBlue:
    BONVIE,

    Is that from NewAgeSys?On a different note, I think they’ll get 95 points this year!

    Indeed.

  81. AsiaOil says:

    Figure you are pretty close G man – but we might just be able to surprise a few teams who have gotten used to our usual confusion and lack of preparation early in the year. That’s my hope – and if we can play .500 ball in the first quarter of the season – we might make the last quarter pretty darn interesting. I went with 89 points – the big breakout happens next year when cap space and opportunity to really fix the defense occur.

  82. Yeti says:

    G Money:
    Can’t stop laughing at the headline.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/laurenstrapagiel/purple-wizard-man-we-are-not-worthy?utm_term=.ioe8POqEG#.giaJ6Wbmg

    That’s Verdad. He’s about to castigate Muclair for failing to acquire OEL.

  83. Yeti says:

    G Money:

    If everything this year breaks right for this team it could be an incredible year:
    – ifCam Talbot is as good as he’s shown he could be
    – when not if McDavid goes supernova
    – when not if RNH’s scoring goes supernova
    – if Hall can stay mostly healthy
    – if Yak’s stick finally starts finding the net consistently
    – if Schultz can stay with this new improved grittier style of Defense
    – if Reinhart grows into a top notch shutdown guy

    So really when I say 82 points I’m taking all those optimistic things and scaling a bunch of them back to a harsher historical reality.

    The other way to approach it is to start from the bottom and work your way up. I’m expecting a better year if and when:
    – RNH finally cracks 50 points
    – Hall proves he can stop being a locker room cancer
    – Luke Gazdic gets to play every game on McDavid’s wing to prevent any and all injuries (including during 3-on-3 OT)
    – Justin Schultz transcends reality to become our most obstinate poster’s new main squeeze
    – Jordan Eberle puts on 40 pounds of muscle while convalescing in the gym to become Jordan Megale, our new, coveted powerforward
    – Anton Lander finally gives Nail Yakupov a map of the ice with all the names in Russian

    The only way is up, baby!

  84. Frank the dog says:

    Sunglasses off. 76 points. Please, please, prove me wrong.

  85. Marc says:

    hunter1909,

    I want in. Apologies for the delay getting my entry in. I fell behind reading the comments on the GDT and it’s taken me until this morning to get caught up again. God help us when the season actually starts!

    I’ll go with 98 pts.

    The method to my madness (predicted wins broken down by groups of opponents with the number of wins the Oilers got against the same teams last season in brackets):

    Eastern conference – 19 wins (15 wins)
    Central division – 8 wins (5 wins)
    LA, SJ, Anaheim – 7 wins (4 wins)
    Cal, Van, Ari – 11 wins (0 wins)
    Loser points – 8 (14)

    The tirefire of a team we fielded last season almost broke even agains the East, so an extra 4 wins doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.

    We still don’t match up well against much of the West, so I have us getting only 15 wins out of 35 against the Central and the California teams. This is an improvement of 6 wins, but that doesn’t seem too unreasonable given that Chicago, LA and San Jose are all worse on paper than they were last season, and that Colorado and Dallas don’t look like defensive powerhouses.

    It was our record against Calgary, Arizona and Vancouver last season that really killed us. Going 0-15 against two of the worst possession teams in the league and a Vancouver team that was middling at best was astonishingly, unrepeatably bad. Arizona should be the worst team in the league this year. Calgary should be better than last year, but still a below average possession team with some regression to the meat highly likely. Vancouver is clearly worse than they were last year. I project a sweep of Arizona and see the Oilers winning the season series against both Calgary and Vancouver.

    The 11 additional wins seems massive and unrealistic, but a team with Edmonton’s possession numbers from last season playing against teams with Calgary, Arizona and Vancouver’s numbers would normally expect to get 6 or 7 wins. What I’m really assuming is a regression to that meat, plus an additional 4-5 wins based on Edmonton’s off season improvements and the relative decline of Arizona and Vancouver.

    98 points. Book it.

  86. Zelepukin says:

    In terms of projecting totals I think 3vs3 is going to throw a spanner into things. Correct me if I’m wrong but we went to OT last year 21 times? Lost 14 of those. On paper we have the assets to dominate the format and as long as McL is smart about deployment instead of the Eakins model of putting out Ference, we should pick up some big points.

    I can forsee teams having set squads just for 3vs3, similar to the shootout. For instance, if McD-Nuge-Klef are the first line every single time, you’re going to see a lot of set plays being strategised. Strong possession players with a ton of speed and skill.

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hunter:

    put me down for 22 points and a cabbage roll sandwich.

  88. PhrankLee says:

    G Money: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/expect-the-improved-edmonton-oilers-to-run-just-400-to-the-quarter-pole/

    You’re a prince among pirates, G. Nicely done.

    I came out at .366 for the first quarter. Then I goosed it a bit due to the schedule normalizing and Eberle should be back.

    I have given Hunter my most hopeful prediction of .500 over 82 games. Last year I was realistic. This year I can dream.

    I highly doubt they accomplish that. But I have given way to hopes this year with the addition of Bob Nicholson. Did you know Bob Nicholson takes no shit? Bob Nicholson invented ultimatum. Bob Nicholson added instant savvy and respect at one of the lowest points in Oiler History.

  89. Kmart99 says:

    I know Chiarelli said Draisaitl’s demotion was performance based, but come on. It was done because that is what’s best for him long term. He outplayed Gazdic, Slepyshev,klink, Purcell, and others…..

    I’m sure he would’ve cracked the line up had he dominated the final two games, but overall he was definitely one of the 13 best forwards. Regardless, I’m glad he’s in Bakersfield and I hope to see him as a much better player the next chance he gets.

  90. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99,

    I would disagree he outplayed Slepyshev…especially as TC worn on.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Hunter:

    put me down for 22 points and a cabbage roll sandwich.

    Do you use cabbage instead of bread or is it cabbage rolls between two slices of bread (or bun etc)?

  92. Mr. D. says:

    Czar,

    Fact is most analytics reflect the play of 5 players. So a single players relevance to his stat has a 20% contribution not including the ability or level of the competition or shooting location. Too many variables make it a glimmer of reality.

  93. Kris11 says:

    I bid 1 point, Bob. I really want that living room set.

  94. verdad2.0 says:

    How does Draisatl feel when a low talent kid like Vitanen makes the Canucks while he is asked to wallow in the AHL?
    That only adds resentment.
    HIs demotion had nothing to do with performance or winning hockey games.
    It was inexplicable when there were players kept that are genuinely talentless – see Gadzic, Kliinhammer and Ference.

    No one has conceded that Draisatl played the best with MacDavid of any of the Oilers forwards, considerably better than the over-rated Hall.

    Of the top four picks of his draft year, he is the only one wallowing in the AHL. Does anyone think about what is doing to him?

  95. böök¡je says:

    You know nothing G-Money. I took the standard deviation of Hope and multiplied it by the derivative of Fate and I predict the Oilers will win 15 out of their first 20 games.

    Bob

  96. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: Everyone prays for St Louis in the playoffs.

    Hitichcock burns out his team during the regular season. He also has a monocular vision of how to deploy his line-up, which is his weakness as a coach. i.e. non-adaptability of roster deployment, which is the strength of Bowman, Quenneville, and Sutter, who redeploy their lineups, depending on what the opposition does.

    i.e. He has a guy, in Paajarvi, who he could develop to shutdown Patrick Kane (a la Otto to shutdown Messier.) He prefers to play a guy like Steve Ott, who could never shut down Patrick Kane.

    Yep, developing Paajarvi would hurt wins during the regular season, but help win in the playoffs, but that his beyond Hitchcock’s single-minded narrow vision of how to deploy talent.

  97. Pouzar says:

    verdad2.0:
    How does Draisatl feel when a low talent kid like Vitanen makes the Canucks while he is asked to wallow in the AHL?
    That only adds resentment.
    HIs demotion had nothing to do with performance or winning hockey games.
    It was inexplicable when there were players kept that are genuinely talentless – see Gadzic, Kliinhammer and Ference.

    No one has conceded that Draisatl played the best with MacDavid of any of the Oilers forwards, considerably better than the over-rated Hall.

    Of the top four picks of his draft year, he is the only one wallowing in the AHL. Does anyone think about what is doing to him?

    Stop it. Enough already.

  98. Drew says:

    verdad2.0:
    How does Draisatl feel when a low talent kid like Vitanen makes the Canucks while he is asked to wallow in the AHL?
    That only adds resentment.
    HIs demotion had nothing to do with performance or winning hockey games.
    It was inexplicable when there were players kept that are genuinely talentless – see Gadzic, Kliinhammer and Ference.

    No one has conceded that Draisatl played the best with MacDavid of any of the Oilers forwards, considerably better than the over-rated Hall.

    Of the top four picks of his draft year, he is the only one wallowing in the AHL. Does anyone think about what is doing to him?

    This and you are getting sillier by the week. Shultz seems to be getting better, NN is gone, and Ferrance is getting a greatly reduced role.

    Here comes the next narrative of “silly”. Hall is not a perfect player but he is not over rated.

    Back to your OEL shrine and continue doing whatever you do there.

  99. Czar says:

    Mr. D.,

    I’ll throw your name in the ring to play BB in the movie.

    RexLibris,

    I don’t care what he’s saying, the man oozes style, charisma and sex appeal. He’s never met a microphone he didn’t like and …. Fvck it, the guys a knob.

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