SHOT VOLUME. IT’S THE REAL THING

Even during the four game losing streak, Todd McLellan’s media avails lacked the tension of one year ago. McLellan speaks a universal language of hockey and because of it avoids all number of conflicts. Consider this answer today about getting shots on net:

  • Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

Fantastic answer. Todd McLellan avoids the ‘rage of Corsi’ by saying he’s never heard of it, and then proceeds to tell the gathered throngs about the importance of shot differential. Sweet Jesus the guy is smooth, if this were America he’d be one of those southern lawyers with the hayseed drawl that has you giggling right up until the six minutes he pierces the air with perfect words and reason while sending you to the electric chair.

The man from Saskatchewan is nobody’s fool. Today’s lesson? Corsi is a liar, a false God. Have you met my friend shot volume? We get enough volume shooting and it won’t matter what that other fella does! Honestly, it’s brilliant.

IS IT TRUE?

Not yet. Todd McLellan’s team (folks, this is early days):

  • Shots for per game 2014-15: 28.4 (No. 26 overall)
  • Shots for per game 2015-16: 26.8 (No. 25 overall)
  • Shots against per game 2014-15: 30.0 (No. 20 overall)
  • Shots against per game 2015-16: 32.7 (No. 25 overall)

The Oilers were -1.6 shots-per-game a year ago and are -5.9 so far this season—provided NHL.com’s numbers are correct. Edmonton has had some tough games during these six contests, suspect the number improves under McLellan. Shot volume. It’s the right thing to do.

Looks like Andrew Ference draws in and it’s probably on the third pairing. One thing we’ll do for tomorrow morning’s GDT is run TOI totals for all six regular blue. Suspect that third pairing will take a haircut in TOI tomorrow night. I wonder if they consider moving up Eric Gryba, he’s been playing more than Mark Fayne of late.

Mark Fayne for a gritty winger? Is Rene Bourque available? I kid. Probably. The Oilers have also been connected in the past to David Clarkson, Ryan Murray, Dalton Prout and Boone Jenner. Fedor Tyutin is apparently off his previous levels, Jack Johnson gets mentioned in media often. Interesting times.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

133 Responses to "SHOT VOLUME. IT’S THE REAL THING"

  1. marty62 says:

    Hopefully sending Howson out scouting is more to get him out and away from everyday business. Surely Chia is not listening to Howson after he just buried some of Howsons guys in the minors…….

  2. CrazyCoach says:

    LT,

    What have you heard about the Chara to EDM rumours?

  3. CrazyCoach says:

    marty62: Hopefully sending Howson out scouting is more to get him out and away from everyday business.

    It might be like the time I worked in the sawmill and all the new guys got sent out to find the “Board Stretcher”

  4. marty62 says:

    CrazyCoach,

    haha I like that!

  5. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach: It might be like the time I worked in the sawmill and all the new guys got sent out to find the “Board Stretcher”

    Haha! I miss the sawmills, my Dad worked there when I was a kid. I heard Chara rumors but then Boston denied everything and I can’t see them dealing him.

  6. CrazyCoach says:

    marty62: haha I like that!

    Once I got over the shame of it happening to me, I got to find the next victim and boy did I succeed. I made one kid pack a three foot length of electric motor core (about 150 lbs) from one end of the planer mill, across the yard, and into the sawmill.

  7. CrazyCoach says:

    Lowetide: I heard Chara rumors but then Boston denied everything and I can’t see them dealing him.

    I couldn’t either. It just doesn’t make sense for either team. Just internet fluff more than anything.

    Hoping to go see the Oil over Christmas break.

  8. blainer says:

    Love Tmac talking about Faceoffs and possession. He must have been reading my posts lately..lol.. We have already had a few goals go in off the faceoff in our zone.

    Suspect he will have Miller take a few draws to spell RNH depending on which side of the ice the draw is on being that Miller is a righty..

    Just really happy to have a coach see the problems and address them correctly..

  9. G Money says:

    I should have TOI for all players, including for defensemen and defensive pairings and line combos ready to go by tomorrow for the post-game NerdAlert.

    One stop shopping! That’s my goal!

    I might also run the shot differentials for this season so far (just to validate the NHL numbers, which have often been wonky) as well as against how this team did against the same six teams last year, just for an apples to apples comparison.

  10. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    I should have TOI for all players, including for defensemen and defensive pairings and line combos ready to go by tomorrow for the post-game NerdAlert.

    One stop shopping!That’s my goal!

    I might also run the shot differentials for this season so far (just to validate the NHL numbers, which have often been wonky) as well as against how this team did against the same six teams last year, just for an apples to apples comparison.

    God’s work, G. God’s work.

  11. böök¡je says:

    Is there any way we could ‘Weekend at Bernie’ Ference by taping him to the front of Klefbomb for a few games just to make him look good enough to trade?

  12. blainer says:

    Hendricks is a huge loss for us especially on the PK.. Tmac has used this player properly.. He is our top faceoff guy and one of the top in the league at 61.5%..

    Lander also doing well at 57%.. We need to cut down on the draws by CMD and RNH in our zone which to my eye Tmac has been doing..

    Do we all remember the conversations we all had before we went out and got Gordon.. Faceoffs were a MAJOR problem..

  13. Ribs says:

    Shot Volume. I like it.

    Keep Calm
    And
    Shot Volume
    On

  14. AsiaOil says:

    On the contrary – I think he is exactly what the Oilers need – a big nasty top 4 dman who can be the bridge to the future (summer of 2018) where GR, Nurse and Klef are all young vets. As long as you don’t expect him to be a #1 playing 30 minutes every night he would be perfect.

    Fayne and our #1 pick for Chara

    Klef Sekera
    Chara Shultz
    Reinhart / Gryba / Nurse

    Chara’s contract expires same time as McDavid’s entry level contract.

    CrazyCoach: I couldn’t either.It just doesn’t make sense for either team.Just internet fluff more than anything.

    Hoping to go see the Oil over Christmas break.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “if this were America he’d be one of those southern lawyers with the hayseed drawl that has you giggling right up until the six minutes he pierces the air with perfect words and reason while sending you to the electric chair.”

    Will Rogers, often in tandem with (and I fuck you not!) Stepin Fetchit, really gave the “Southern Judge/Lawyer of easy manners,” its iconic parameters.

    Have a look at the opening of Judge Priest (1934, John Ford… natch!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A55YGid2-wU

    Basically nails it there before the credits even roll.

    Of course, the figure of Stepin Fetchin is a real hamball of Americana…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepin_Fetchit

  16. slopitch says:

    Chara Nurse would be fun. Not sure about the best before date.

    Just picked up tickets for tomorrow. Buddy is a big Larkin fan. Gonna be fun

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Please no Ference tomorrow night…you don’t play games like the Vancouver game and win with him in the lineup.

  18. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    He said he didn’t know what Corsi and Fenwick are, not that he had never heard of them. Still the same, smart move, but not quite what you said.

    I think the shot differential will improve once the PP improves. Not seeing the high shot volume, effective PP that is the trademark of McLellan teams.

    The shots against are skewed heavily by that Dallas debacle. It’s a small sample size still and will improve quite a bit I think.

  19. PeOiler says:

    CrazyCoach,

    This is also great fun in the world of cooking.

    “I need you to go up the street to grab 2 buckets of steam from my pal at ‘restaurant X’.

    “Can you head downstairs and fetch me the left-handed banana peeler? It’s right next to the bacon stretcher…”

    Good times.

  20. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Oh and on that Portzline tweet, good thing the Oilers sent Howson over to watch his former team, because ya know, last time he recommended someone from CBJ we scooped Nikitin ahead of everyone else, and it only cost us a 5th rounder!
    We can even reunite NN with his good buddy Tyutin. Hooray.

  21. murphy says:

    Hartnell for fayne is going to happen…. Like it or not.

  22. Dicky94 says:

    Hopefully they are scouting Okposo.

  23. striatic says:

    But .. Shot Volume and Corsi or Fenwick aren’t the same thing..

    Assuming he knows what Corsi and Fenwick are – and let’s be real, he does – isn’t he kinda saying something like..

    “It is important that we get lots of shots on net. Not attempted shots or shots that miss. Shots that count on the shot clock because the make it to the net. I want as many of those as possible but I don’t want my guys missing the net by shooting before they are ready or getting their shots blocked because they are not waiting for empty shooting lanes.”

    If I’m aiming for my team to get a high Corsi rating, I want them shooting into shin pads because sometimes the puck will get through. I want them shooting before they can guarantee they’ll put it on net because enough of the time it’ll hit the net anyway that it’ll be worth the risk of missing.

    If I’m aiming for shot volume, I’m teaching completely different things than if I’m aiming for Corsi, Fenwick.

  24. stush18 says:

    At the Flames game right now against the caps. Have a work thing in Calgary and thought why not.

    Kuznetzov has an unreal shot. Ovechkin like really.
    Burakovsky has Indian toe drags and dangles. Unreal set of hands
    Gaudreu has a terrible shot lol
    Oshie had some unreal hands as well. He kept flipping the puck high in the air and catching it on his blade or shaft.

    Got a seat in the flames end so I can hopefully see the caps score a powerplay goal!

  25. pts2pndr says:

    PeOiler,

    As a team leader in Vietnam I sent a young marine to supply for a black air panel for possible midnight extraction. On his way back from supply unsuccessful he walked past the base commander and did walked on unaware and when our first Sgt called into his office. I got a call which to this day I recall. Given this man was a Medal of Honour recipient his words carried some weight ! He told me if you want to lead you must always set the right example! Demeaning another individual only demeans you and your credibility is always questioned by that individual! Took it to heart and I am hear to relay this story!

  26. rickithebear says:

    Shot density – the higher chance of a shot going in the greater the shot density.

    Hcs = high density

    One of the best d at preventing high shot volumes of medium and high density shots is Mark Fayne.

    You can quote me on that!
    ?

  27. G Money says:

    striatic,

    That implies that the ability to ‘not miss’ on a shot is both controllable and coachable.

    (FYI, the Sharks last year were 4th in the league in EV CF60, 7th in the league in FF60, and 14th in the league in SF60. So I’d say based on his actual results, “McLellan shot volume” = Corsi).

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    striatic:
    But .. Shot Volume and Corsi or Fenwick aren’t the same thing..

    Assuming he knows what Corsi and Fenwick are – and let’s be real, he does – isn’t he kinda saying something like..

    “It is important that we get lots of shots on net. Not attempted shots or shots that miss. Shots that count on the shot clock because the make it to the net. I want as many of those as possible but I don’t want my guys missing the net by shooting before they are ready or getting their shots blocked because they are not waiting for empty shooting lanes.”

    If I’m aiming for my team to get a high Corsi rating, I want them shooting into shin pads because sometimes the puck will get through. I want them shooting before they can guarantee they’ll put it on net because enough of the time it’ll hit the net anyway that it’ll be worth the risk of missing.

    If I’m aiming for shot volume, I’m teaching completely different things than if I’m aiming for Corsi, Fenwick.

    There’s really nothing in this quote:

    ““Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.””

    that should lead anyone to believe McLellan is making a distinction between “shot attempts” and “shot on goal”

    I mean… really, not a single word implies this. Not least of which is the fact that McLellan (perhaps, as LT suggests, for rhetorical purposes) claims ignorance of Corsi/Fenwick.

  29. Water Fire says:

    Mclellan Is a beauty. I hope Chiarelli gives us warm fuzzies soon as well.

    The Habs *spits for LT* lead the Blues 2-0. I cannot seem to get over Petry
    # mad again

  30. striatic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: There’s really nothing in this quote:
    ““Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.””
    that should lead anyone to believe McLellan is making a distinction between “shot attempts” and “shot on goal”
    I mean… really, not a single word implies this. Not least of which is the fact that McLellan (perhaps, as LT suggests, for rhetorical purposes) claims ignorance of Corsi/Fenwick.

    Ok if that’s not the case why is LT going immediately to the NHL shot on goal per game rankings?

    If McLellan is talking about shot attempts, what do shots on goal have to do with it, like you say? Shouldn’t we just be looking at the Oilers’ Corsi and Fenwick numbers because that’s what McLellan is actually talking about, not shots on goal?

  31. striatic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: that should lead anyone to believe McLellan is making a distinction between “shot attempts” and “shot on goal”

    I should also add that the exchange immediately leading up to the quote was about Hall “Putting pucks on the net”. Not “attempting shots”. Actually putting pucks on the net.

    [Also immediately after that quote, same exchange with reporter, McLellan talks about “shots for and against” and the Oilers’ rankings in those categories – he says it is probably bottom third. I think it is very clear that McLellan is talking about the specific statistic “shots” and not shot attempts in general]

  32. Woodguy says:

    Re: Howson in Columbus

    He still lives there.

    He scouts 30+ CBJ games a year.

    Just so you know.

  33. Seismic Source says:

    Watching Columbus hit rock bottom on gamecenter. The body language!

  34. striatic says:

    G Money:
    striatic,
    That implies that the ability to ‘not miss’ on a shot is both controllable and coachable.

    (FYI, the Sharks last year were 4th in the league in EV CF60, 7th in the league in FF60, and 14th in the league in SF60.So I’d say based on his actual results, “McLellan shot volume” = Corsi).

    He’s very specially talking about the “shots” statistic at the end of the exchange.

    McLellan may not care much or at all about “shot quality”, he says as much in the presser talking about bad angle shots, but he also says in the presser that it is good that Hall is “putting shots on net” and then specifically refers to the shot statistic and basically says he doesn’t care for Corsi or Fenwick. He cares about “shots”.

    Not caring about shot quality is going to lead to higher Corsi than caring about it, but it doesn’t mean that the coach is instructing his players to maximize for Fenwick or Corsi, he’s instructing his players to maximize for shots.

  35. John Chambers says:

    striatic,

    A corollary to all of this is that shots create chaos. It turns the defense around, gets the goalie out of position, and allows forwards to crash the net. It’s awful hard to score in the game when everyone is in position, but throw a whole bunch of shots at the opposition’s net and the chaos create odd-man situations and scoring opportunities.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Re: Howson in Columbus

    He still lives there.

    He scouts 30+ CBJ games a year.

    Just so you know.

    Bah!!! Undermining my verbal!!! Two minutes!!!

  37. G Money says:

    striatic,

    The difference between a “shot” and a “Fenwick” is that your shot missed.

    The difference between a “shot” and a “Corsi” that is not already a Fenwick is that your shot got blocked.

    Missing the net is not a player-controlled or coach-controlled function. Otherwise, no-one would miss.

    Blocking a shot has more to do with the other teams defensive positioning and willingness. No one chooses to get their shot blocked.

    Your statement implies that there are players or coaches who don’t care if they miss or get blocked, which is ridiculous. Of course they care. They just don’t control it. Otherwise, no shot would ever miss or get blocked.

    Trying to maximize your shot volume is the same thing as trying to maximize your shot attempts. That’s the part you control.

  38. AsiaOil says:

    Eberle for Okposo plus or minus????

    ducks….

    Dicky94:
    Hopefully they are scouting Okposo.

  39. frjohnk says:

    AsiaOil:
    Eberle for Okposo plus or minus????

    ducks….

    You better duck.

    Okposo is UFA aftert this year.

  40. delooper says:

    People miss the net deliberately on shots all the time — deflection off the end boards resulting in a pass to either yourself or another team-mate. Yakupov did it in the Vancouver game quite effectively.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Bah!!! Undermining my verbal!!! Two minutes!!!

    Don’t worry, Fayne for Hartnell will now happen just because I piped up.

  42. JDï™ says:

    delooper: Yakupov did it in the Vancouver game quite effectively.

    I thought that was a great play too.

    And wow, is this Habs team something in the early season. Love watching them take it to the spits Blues.

  43. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: Fayne for Hartnell

    Is… is it good to like the sound of that? Asking for Bookije.

  44. G Money says:

    delooper,

    Indeed. I’m making the rather huge leap that a shot attempt on net, or shot on net, means you’re actually trying to hit the net. If you’re including the act of deliberately sending it off the backboards as a shot attempt, then I guess you should also include passes in shot attempts.

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: Don’t worry, Fayne for Hartnell will now happen just because I piped up.

    I’d still like to see:

    Klefbom-Sekera
    Nurse-Fayne
    Reinhart-Schultz

    happen for a stretch during the year.

  46. OilClog says:

    Howson is scouting for his and Nikita’s return to OHIO!

  47. Derek says:

    Washington is absolutely dismantling Calgary 4-1 right now. I think Calgary has touched the puck about 3 times in the second period.

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Petry 24:53 in MTL’s win to make them 6-0.

    Subban 23:33.

  49. Halfwise says:

    This year’s Flames look like last year’s Oilers vs Washington. 4-1 with 7 minutes left in the second.

  50. Visually better says:

    Dougie Hamilton getting embarrassed out there tonight… I love it.

    Holy hell tho, the Capitals are one scary ass team. They’re oozing talent

  51. Seismic Source says:

    Oooh did Dougie look soft on Oshie. So bad

  52. godot10 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Eberle for Okposo plus or minus????

    ducks….

    Okposo is a UFA at the end of the season, and is going to want more than $6 million per with duration.

  53. Seismic Source says:

    Ovechkin can find open ice standing still. Its amazing

  54. dangilitis says:

    Am I a bad person for taking pleasure in the misery of Flames fans?

    Is it bad to hope that GIordano becomes Ryan Whitney? Or that Dougie Hamilton is Justin Schultz?

  55. wheatnoil says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Petry 24:53 in MTL’s win to make them 6-0.

    Subban 23:33.

    You know, it’s totally true. Petry won’t play second pairing on a good team.

  56. wheatnoil says:

    dangilitis:
    Am I a bad person for taking pleasure in the misery of Flames fans?

    A bad person but an excellent Oilers fan!

  57. Halfwise says:

    Aaaand the Mets are toying with the Cubs, 5-2 in the 8th.

    Sad Cubs’ fans.

  58. jonrmcleod says:

    If my math is correct, the Flames currently have the 2nd worst goal differential in the NHL.

  59. Zelepukin says:

    Visually better: Dougie Hamilton getting embarrassed out there tonight… I love it.

    Impressively bad.

    dangilitis: Is it bad to hope that GIordano becomes Ryan Whitney? Or that Dougie Hamilton is Justin Schultz?

    Hamilton is definitely Jultz of the flames.

  60. Sugar Reijo says:

    Wow is Dougie Hamilton ever playing some terrible hockey at the moment.

    Lovin’ it.

  61. dangilitis says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Petry 24:53 in MTL’s win to make them 6-0.

    Subban 23:33.

    7-0, my friend.
    Meanwhile, Reider is 3G 2A in first 6 games, Hemsky 1 G 5A in first 5 games

  62. dangilitis says:

    wheatnoil: A bad person but an excellent Oilers fan!

    Ok, that’s what I thought. I can live with that. It’s how I survive in Calgary…

  63. Woodguy says:

    JDï™: Is… is it good to like the sound of that? Asking for Bookije.

    Not with Hartnell being 34 at the end of this season and having 3 more years at $4.75

  64. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Petry 24:53 in MTL’s win to make them 6-0.

    Subban 23:33.

    I tweeted this earlier:

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 43m43 minutes ago
    The Habs is what happens when your Dcorps are good enough that Petry plays 2nd pairing and you also have a Petry to play 2nd pairing.

  65. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I’d still like to see:

    Klefbom-Sekera
    Nurse-Fayne
    Reinhart-Schultz

    happen for a stretch during the year.

    They like Schultz too much and Fayne too little for that to happen.

    Swap 2RD and 3RD and that might happen.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Visually better:
    Dougie Hamilton getting embarrassed out there tonight… I love it.

    Holy hell tho, the Capitals are one scary ass team. They’re oozing talent

    Thank Gord they will be on their 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of back to back (Thurs in VAN) when they get here Friday.

    Oil will have a fighting chance.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Soooooooooooooooooooooo…………………

    What if Neely and Sweeny were right about Hamilton?

    They still didn’t get enough for him, but what if they were right to not want to pay him long term?

  68. dangilitis says:

    Zelepukin: Impressively bad.

    Hamilton is definitely Jultz of the flames.

    Maybe Sweeney isn’t such a bad man, after all… I’ll reserve judgment for 4 years from now 🙂

  69. stush18 says:

    Update from the game.

    Ovy.

    Caps are manhandling the flames.

    Doughs hamilyon is making awful decisions with the puck.

    Burakovsky is also turning the puck over a lot. Bad spots too like the blue lines. Heads to the bench and no one talks to him about if? Must not care in game?

    The caps always seem to pass stick to stick. The don’t just cye the corners. The cycle to the point and across the ice. In terms of actual puck possession, they would be high.

    Lots of set faceoff plays for caps as well

  70. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: What if Neely and Sweeny were right about Hamilton?

    Hunter1909’s Absolute truth: Today’s NHL places far too much emphasis on “offensive” defencemen. These days, let’s face it: it’s no longer 1970…I dunno, with a handful of defencemen not named Orr capable of carrying the puck out of the zone. These days there are lots of glorified wingers playing the position.

    PS: Is it true!? Ference is playing the next game!? Are these guys out of their minds? Guaranteed loss, way to go guys.

    PPS: Refreshing to see Calgary as they vanish down the rabbit hole. And how’s about them 0-7 Bluejackets?

  71. delooper says:

    G Money,

    So do you have stats that know what’s going on in the minds of the players? Seems a little magical.

  72. fifthcartel says:

    In weird observations, Liam Coughlin has 2 points in 3 games for the University of Vermont. Maybe the Hawks saw something?

  73. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy,

    Surely if those two were right and knew it, they would have taken Chiarelli’s money and run away laughing…

  74. RexLibris says:

    Just dropped in to see how things were going here and on FN.

    Read this at FN and it kind of told the whole story:

    We gave up our first three draft picks for this? I know he is only 22 but he looks like a tire fire out there. Any chance Boston wins that trade? And what was all this talk that it was Hamilton carrying Chara? Must have been the other way around, no?

    A little schadenfreude anyone?

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Dougie Hamilton looks like a 6’5″ version of Poti/Gilbert. Another buttersoft prima donna. Incapable of doing ought other than score cute points, then, when the s*** hits the fan as it always does, these clowns go AWOL for some strange reason.

    Apparently he was paired with Chara. Blair MacDonald anyone?

    PS: Darnell Nurse/Leon Disraitl should be kept away from the NHL until they’re ready. And Ference is turning into Thomas Becket….as in “Who will rid us of this troublesome defenceman?”

    lol

  76. dustrock says:

    Woodguy:
    Soooooooooooooooooooooo…………………

    What if Neely and Sweeny were right about Hamilton?

    They still didn’t get enough for him, but what if they were right to not want to pay him long term?

    He’s looked bad so far, but he looked great on the Bruins. Even when Chara was out last year, he played well, and I think if Hamilton didn’t get hurt at the end of the year they might have made the playoffs.

    There was probably a reason everybody was jealous when the Flames grabbed.

    Still, I’m glad he’s terrible lol.

  77. Магия 10 says:

    Flame’s schedule this month is easier than ours. So it will be a delight if Oil are ahead of them after the Halloween game.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    dustrock: He’s looked bad so far, but he looked great on the Bruins.Even when Chara was out last year, he played well, and I think if Hamilton didn’t get hurt at the end of the year they might have made the playoffs.

    There was probably a reason everybody was jealous when the Flames grabbed.

    Still, I’m glad he’s terrible lol.

    Draft picks etc aside, Oiler fans are a lot more pissed re losing Petry than Boston fans are losing Hamilton. Seems beantowners knew he was another Barbara Ann Scott.

  79. RexLibris says:

    For the first time in my life, I actually kind of care about how the Capitals are doing.

    🙂

  80. Centre of attention says:

    Backstrom with a 4 point night. Sick goal to make it 6-2. What a wonderful player.

  81. Centre of attention says:

    RexLibris:
    For the first time in my life, I actually kind of care about how the Capitals are doing.

    I’ve always rooted for the cap’s as my “playoff team” during these dark years in Oil town. Needless to say it just resulted in more pain and dejection.

  82. RexLibris says:

    dustrock: He’s looked bad so far, but he looked great on the Bruins.Even when Chara was out last year, he played well, and I think if Hamilton didn’t get hurt at the end of the year they might have made the playoffs.

    There was probably a reason everybody was jealous when the Flames grabbed.

    Still, I’m glad he’s terrible lol.

    This is why I come back to Hartley’s deployment.

    That defense is good on paper. They shouldn’t be this bad on the ice for this long.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris:
    For the first time in my life, I actually kind of care about how the Capitals are doing.

    Centre of attention: I’ve always rooted for the cap’s as my “playoff team” during these dark years in Oil town. Needless to say it just resulted in more pain and dejection.

    I’m now hoping for a Caps v Habs ECF. Ovechkin I want to win 1 cup, Petry I’ve been whining since forever WILL play on a cup winner.

  84. Centre of attention says:

    First time in Flames franchise history that they lose their first 4 home games.

    Made my night.

  85. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris: That defense is good on paper.

    They play the game on ice.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    I’m going to be following the Flames/Bluejackets for the rest of the season. Seems I’m addicted to gallows humor.

    No idea how that got started.

  87. RexLibris says:

    hunter1909: They play the game on ice.

    Right now I don’t think they are even doing that.

    BtN has the first 4 gp up and Engelland/Kulak are -6.2 or more in CorsiRelQualComp.

    All six have – Corsi QualComp scores right now and Giordano/Hamilton haven’t yet faced the toughest competition prior to tonight’s game.

    It comes down, in my opinion, to coaching at this point and Hartley is just plain mis-casting that roster.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris: It comes down, in my opinion, to coaching at this point and Hartley is just plain mis-casting that roster.

    It happens to the best of them.

    Think Kubrick, with “Eyes Wide Shut”.

  89. RexLibris says:

    jonrmcleod:
    If my math is correct, the Flames currently have the 2nd worst goal differential in the NHL.

    Only two teams with double-digit – goal differential this early.

    Flames at -13, Blue Jackets at -21.

  90. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy:
    Soooooooooooooooooooooo…………………

    What if Neely and Sweeny were right about Hamilton?

    …..and PChia was wrong? His Clarkson bullet dodge? Early days.

  91. RexLibris says:

    With an extra game played, the Oilers have a -4 goal diff, with two empty net goals.

    The Kings have a -8 goal diff having played one fewer game.

    This is all kind of academic at this early stage, but team defense is happening.

    And goalering. Lots of goalering.

  92. RexLibris says:

    jm363561: …..and PChia was wrong?His Clarkson bullet dodge?Early days.

    Coaching.

    Hartley is a terrible coach.

    He hasn’t coached a positive possession team since God Knows When and refuses to adapt his style.

    He prioritizes the OTC crap we bemoan here when he puts Bollig on the 1st line or gives Engelland prime playing time or moves Backlund to the 4th line.

    He started a goon squad for the opening faceoff in a deliberate attempt to goad Tortorella into a line brawl.

    He is a bad coach and cannot properly deploy good players. He relies on ZSs to such an extreme that suggests that he either cannot or will not adjust his coaching strategy to counter the opposing team’s strategies.

    Hamilton is only 22 and should not be in the position he is with this team. Julien was far better at deploying his talent accordingly and in a game plan suited to their strengths.

    We saw this with Eakins and while the results were worse for most of the time we seem to forget that for two of the last three years the Flames finished right next to the Oilers in the draft standings.

    I’d take Hamilton today, but until the Flames jettison Hartley that team is going to reap poor rewards.

    I hope he stays for a decade.

  93. G Money says:

    BOOYAH! TIME ON ICE!

    Defense Pairings
    Pairing RegTOI EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
    Reinhart Gryba 18:30 17:48 6 19 24 25.2 45.6 47.7
    Schultz Dreamy 17:39 16:28 8 15 34.8 37.2 41.4 43.2
    Sekera Fayne 15:51 15:03 12 13 48 49.8 36.8 38.8
    Schultz Gryba 01:58 01:07 1 3 25 26.3 40.4 42.4
    Sekera Schultz 01:04 00:48 2 1 66.7 67.7 38.9 40.8
    Sekera Reinhart 00:42 00:42 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1
    Fayne Dreamy 00:38 00:38 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1
    Gryba Dreamy 00:16 00:16 2 0 100 100 38.5 40.4
    Fayne Reinhart 00:15 00:03 0 1 0 0 40.2 42.2

    Forward Lines
    Line Combo RegTOI EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
    Yak Poo McSuper! 11:10 10:07 5 10 33.3 34.9 41 43
    Purcell Korpi Lander 10:45 10:45 5 8 38.5 41.1 40 41.9
    Chance Klink Nuge 09:38 09:38 9 6 60 61.6 35.9 37.9
    Gazdic Slappy Letestu 04:39 04:39 3 2 60 62 38.6 40.6
    Chance Slappy Nuge 04:06 04:06 1 3 25 26.3 40.4 42.4
    Klink Gazdic Letestu 02:18 02:18 2 1 66.7 71 38.9 40.7
    Yak Poo Nuge 01:40 01:40 0 4 0 0 41.6 43.6
    Letestu Poo McSuper! 01:30 00:15 2 0 100 100 38.5 40.3
    Chance Letestu Nuge 01:04 01:04 0 2 0 0 40.7 42.6
    Chance Klink Letestu 00:49 00:49 0 1 0 0 40.2 42.2
    Chance Klink McSuper! 00:38 00:38 0 1 0 0 40.2 42.2
    Chance Yak McSuper! 00:36 00:36 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1
    Yak Korpi McSuper! 00:36 00:36 4 1 80 80.4 37.5 39.5
    Chance Slappy Letestu 00:33 00:33 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1
    Chance Nuge McSuper! 00:26 00:26 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1
    Slappy Poo McSuper! 00:20 00:20 0 2 0 0 40.7 42.6
    Chance Yak Nuge 00:16 00:16 0 2 0 0 40.7 42.7
    Yak Korpi Lander 00:15 00:15 0 1 0 0 40.2 42.2
    Yak Lander Poo 00:14 00:14 1 0 100 100 39.1 41.1

  94. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    That was an awesome rant!

  95. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Watched the Oilers’ win over the Flames today & one of several things that grabbed my attention was how shitty Dougie Hamilton looked.

    Other things that Caught my eye were how great the Hall-Nuge-Hendricks line played & how often Connor McDavid caused a change of possession. Every time he did I’d say to my TV “i’ll take that” (meaning, the puck) & I must have said it aloud about 6 or 8 times over the course of the game.

    A couple of posts for the Oil & a couple of iffy goals for the Flamrs kept the score respectable but it ws a shit kicking, plain & simple. Flames on tired legs of course, but so what. Kick em while they’re down, I say. Gord knows Oilers have been on the short end of the scheduling often enough.

  96. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    PeOiler,

    He told me if you want to lead you must always set the right example! Demeaning another individual only demeans you and your credibility is always questioned by that individual! Took it to heart and I am hear to relay this story!

    I was thinking the exact same thing (though without the Vietnam story). Damn good advice that’s not followed nearly enough.

  97. 719 says:

    Was also at Flames/Capitals game tonight (always wanted to see Ovechkin play live, what a talent!)

    Some observations:

    Hamilton makes a lot of bad decisions with the puck and is easily knocked off the puck as well. He was the worst Flames d-man by eye.

    Capitals power play is built around getting Ovi a one timer. He is deadly accurate with his shot too.

    The Capitals defensemen are really good at carrying/protecting the puck.

    The Capitals are able to get open in the slot/danger areas a lot. This continually happened tonight, I shudder to think what would happen against the Oilers D. Hopefully Nilsson plays that night.

  98. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Watched the Oilers’ win over the Flames today & one of several things that grabbed my attention was how shitty Dougie Hamilton looked.

    Are you surprised!

    Hamilton is a 1st comp 14.27 HSCA/60 in EC
    Hamilton is a 1st comp 18.06 HSCA/60 in WC

    Petry is 2nd comp 17.59 HSCA/60 in WC
    Petry is 2nd comp 14.22 HSCA/60 in EC

    To the Petry is great in MTL.
    Really!
    2nd comp and 14.22 HSCA/60 in EC.

  99. G Money says:

    Hey, Jordan Eberle, and also Darnell Nurse’s fight from the preseason made a proud appearance on The Daily Show’s piece on the Canadian election!

  100. khildahl says:

    RexLibris:
    With an extra game played, the Oilers have a -4 goal diff, with two empty net goals.

    The Kings have a -8 goal diff having played one fewer game.

    This is all kind of academic at this early stage, but team defense is happening.

    And goalering. Lots of goalering.

    I’ve been working on a predictive model and have been playing around with GF and GA numbers for all teams. Every way I look at the data, the Oilers are in the middle of the league with both numbers (20th in GA/Gm and 23rd in GF/Gm) to this point in my admittedly small sample size (small on a per-team level, not on a league-wide one). They’ve allowed 0.04 more goals per game than the league average. Goaltending is a wonderful thing.

  101. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: Are you surprised!

    Hamilton is a 1st comp 14.27 HSCA/60 in EC
    Hamilton is a 1st comp 18.06 HSCA/60 in WC

    Petry is 2nd comp 17.59 HSCA/60 in WC
    Petry is 2nd comp14.22 HSCA/60 in EC

    To the Petry is great in MTL.
    Really!
    2nd comp and 14.22 HSCA/60 in EC.

    Fayne was 11.36 HSCA/60 in his career with NJ
    Fayne is 16.6 HSCA/60 with EDM.

    Why are there big gaps in these players numbers on different teams?

    Is it the players themselves? or something else?

    With NJ, Fayne played on a very good defensive system with forwards who were good defensively and elite on back pressure. In NJ, Fayne played in a system with forwards that did not expose his weaknesses ( such as mobility) and played with a partner ( Greene) that could advance the puck with ease ( compared to Fayne)

    Compare that to Fayne playing in Eakins system with a group of forwards who are lackluster when it comes to defensive play.

    Hamilton in Boston looked like a stud. But in Calgary, Flames fan are finding out he is not very good defensively.

    With EDM last year, Petry had a HSCA/60 number of 15.4. One of his better numbers. For the rest of the season and playoffs, his HSCA was 14.5 with MTL.
    This year, only 7 games but his HSCA/60 is at 12.65.

    We don’t know how much of an impact systems and personal can have on a players stats such as HSCA/60, but I think it is more significant than most realise.

  102. striatic says:

    G Money: Your statement implies that there are players or coaches who don’t care if they miss or get blocked, which is ridiculous. Of course they care. They just don’t control it. Otherwise, no shot would ever miss or get blocked.
    Trying to maximize your shot volume is the same thing as trying to maximize your shot attempts. That’s the part you control.

    My statement implies that *if* there were coaches looking to maximize for Corsi, they wouldn’t care if lots of shots were missed or blocked. If no such coaches exist, it is because no coaches are specifically maximizing for Corsi, McLellan included.

    Coaches might get higher Corsi as a result of maximizing for shots but were are talking about a spectrum of shot opportunities.

    “If you have a high percentage chance of getting the shot on net, shoot, I don’t care if there is a low percentage of it actually going in.” is a different instructional philosophy from “Shoot, always, even if there is a low percentage of the puck even reaching the net. There’s still a chance so just shoot.”

    I highly doubt any NHL head coach adopts the latter philosophy but I also highly doubt any NHL coach truly maximizes for Corsi or Fenwick.

  103. G Money says:

    striatic,

    Yes, I can agree with that. Point being: coaches don’t/can’t control misses or blocks. They are trying to maximize shots on net. By consequence, they are actually maximizing Corsi.

    But if you consciously try to maximize Corsi, you will fail. [People will bring up you know who at this point, but I believe that point to be disproved, since I believe the actual task of trying to maximize Corsi will cause you to give up possession too easily and will actually torch your Corsi numbers. But that’s a theory to fit the observed facts, not a statement of truth]

    I *think* this particularly shot/Corsi difference might be different than what you were indicating earlier.

    Or not, perhaps I am misremembering or misinterpreted what you said earlier. Or maybe I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying now. I’m just dropping in here at random breaks from programming, so not paying a whole lot of what is my normal due care and attention.

  104. G Money says:

    What I actually came for:

    Yesterday JP suggested adding shot distance histograms to my post-game shot data NerdAlerts.

    They’ll be part of the “Shot Analysis” section starting tomorrow. Here’s what they’ll look like:

    http://i.imgur.com/6mpsoXk.png
    http://i.imgur.com/x1tBKr7.png

  105. striatic says:

    BTW, I agree that Corsi and Fenwick or similar advanced analytical tools are invaluable and must be thoroughly understood and used for a modern General Manager to have consistent and continuing success with player acquisition and retention in the NHL. This has to do with things like the need to model the entire complex system that is the NHL in order to attempt to compare players across a variety of different playing situations, sample sizes and so on but basically because it just works.

    http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/22800149/how-the-los-angeles-kings-corsid-their-way-to-the-nhls-elite
    http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24548618/blackhawks-gm-stan-bowman-says-analytics-give-team-leg-up

    Instruction and development aren’t the same as acquisition and retention though and while coaches might be able to use things like Corsi and Fenwick when it comes to determining player deployment, they benefit more from other analytical tools for various reasons, including traditional “shots” adjusted for time on ice which is something most coaches can observe rather simply and with minimal bias presuming they aren’t presumptive imbeciles.

    Basically, I think McLellan knows exactly what Corsi and Fenwick are, and like you say figures that if he consciously tries to maximize Corsi, he will fail, so he doesn’t. I think he knows the difference between Corsi and Shot Volume and very specifically and intentionally prefers the shot volume metric because it is much more relevant to what he needs to instruct his players to do, when to shoot and when not to shoot, than Corsi is.

    I believe this because he brings up Corsi *and* Fenwick totally unprompted in a way that indicates familiarity despite a claim of unfamiliarity in a discussion about Hall putting pucks “on net”, then absolutely dismisses the mentioned stats with a preference for “on net” based statistics.

  106. stevezie says:

    I’ve heard a lot of verbal about how bad Hunt looks so far, but six points in four games is a helluva pace.

    Considering there aren’t six good defenceman blocking him, and considering the problems the pp has had, i boldly predict we are one bad ference game away from seeing him.

    And i think it makes sense.

    Of course, i haven’t seen the Condors games. Sometimes the haters are voices of reason.

  107. v4ance says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/10/20/random-thoughts-on-wings-oilers-and-more

    “Speaking of Hall, he had food poisoning, not the flu in Dallas. He had one small bowl of oatmeal in the 24 hours leading up to the game.”

    I remember some posters criticizing Hall for his lackluster effort in the Dallas game, some insinuated that he was hung over from attending the Blue Jays game and others were proposing trading Hall based on that game.

    I doubt anyone will admit they joined the mob that was ready to run Hall out of town but you should be ashamed of yourselves.

  108. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the past, the Oilers would play that tired Flames team and lose.

  109. jp says:

    G Money:
    What I actually came for:

    Yesterday JP suggested adding shot distance histograms to my post-game shot data NerdAlerts.

    They’ll be part of the “Shot Analysis” section starting tomorrow.Here’s what they’ll look like:

    http://i.imgur.com/6mpsoXk.png
    http://i.imgur.com/x1tBKr7.png

    Cool that you were able to do this.

    The Oilers look all right as most of Vancouver’s extra “shot volume” was from >40 ft. Though I guess that 20-30 ft bin dominated by the Canucks are pretty high quality scoring chances.

  110. russ99 says:

    1. I though Howson was an amateur scout.
    2. The last thing we need right now is making any more moves based on Howson’s “inside information” on Columbus.

    The sooner the last of the old boys is gone, the better. I really hope this is Chia throwing him a bone and getting him out of the way.

  111. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: my attention was how shitty Dougie Hamilton looked.

    You need to watch last night’s game then.

  112. JDï™ says:

    Darren Dreger Verified account
    ‏@DarrenDreger

    Todd Richards out in CBJ. Torts in.

  113. frjohnk says:

    JDï™:
    Darren Dreger Verified account
    ‏@DarrenDreger

    Todd Richards out in CBJ. Torts in.

    When does Columbus play Calgary?

  114. khildahl says:

    JDï™:
    Darren Dreger Verified account
    ‏@DarrenDreger

    Todd Richards out in CBJ. Torts in.

    How soon do Jackets fans start buying Matthews jerseys?

  115. Dicky94 says:

    Only gets worse for Columbus. Half that team will want out of there by the time Torts is done with them. Not the right guy for that team right now. Also love seeing Flames suck it right now. I’m sure they will turn it around but hoping not.

  116. G Money says:

    When I did my break down of the Oilers season prospects based on toughness of schedule, and how they could achieve .500 even with the brutal schedule start, I concluded this way:


    That’s also where the improvement has to come. It shouldn’t be hard to sustain last years mostly losing record against the good teams! What the Oilers need this season is about 2 or 3 more wins against mid-tier teams, and 7 or 8 more wins against the bottom feeders. That’s the battleground, that’s where this season succeeds or fails.

    So based on the level of competition, expect the Oilers to go 0.400 or so to start the season – and that’s not a big deal. We’ll need to remind each other of this if we get too down in the dumps!

    It’s after that where they need to get on track for the season. One win against CBJ, three wins against ARI, and a couple of wins against CGY and VAN gets you more than halfway there. Find just four more wins than last year against the other 25 teams and you claw above 0.500.

    Those were the four teams that this team *should* have gotten at least a few points from last year, and pretty much completely shit the bed.

    To which I can now say: thanks Columbus!

  117. JDï™ says:

    Things were getting a little boring without Torts.

  118. Visually better says:

    JDï™:
    Things were getting a little boring without Torts.

  119. Adam Wu says:

    G Money:
    striatic,

    Your statement implies that there are players or coaches who don’t care if they miss or get blocked, which is ridiculous.Of course they care.They just don’t control it.Otherwise, no shot would ever miss or get blocked.

    I must dispute this line of reasoning. It doesn’t have to be binary such that absolute control (ie no misses or blocks) and no control are the only options.

    Theoretically, it should be possible to design a system that takes shots in places and situations that make it harder for the other team to block. Accuracy on net should be a trainable skill that would reduce if not elminate missing.

    Whether doing so in practice would actually result in a better outcome in terms of number of shots getting in goal vs simply increasing shot attempts and letting volume and averages do it for you should be a testable hypothesis.

  120. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    I’m in full agreement on the season.

    .500 or at least threatening .500 would represent monumental progress for this club.

    My prayers, if you like, would be answered, in fact.

  121. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    Indeed, this is more or less what I was trying to say to Striatic. One would hope that every coach tries to create at the very least a mindset of ‘get the shot on net’ as opposed ‘Corsi the fuck outta that thing’. The point is, once all of that is in place, whether that shot actually scores, goes on net, misses, or is blocked, is driven by external factors. The effect of maximizing shots (which is the coaches role) in practice maximizes Corsi.

    Rather than (disingenuously to my mind) claiming he has no idea what C/F are, I would have preferred TMc state the truth: that C/F have no relevance to coaching, because his job is to worry about shots on net. *That’s* the truth of the matter.

    The day a coach tells players to start taking shot attempts even when they know they’re going to be blocked or know they’re going to miss (deliberate misses aside) is the day that coach sets himself up to fired.

    As I pointed out earlier, TMc’s own numbers back up that scenario, where his team last year was #4 in Corsi, #7 in Fenwick, and #14 in shots on net. I have no doubt that TMc was maximizing “shot volume”, just as he is this year – but the actual effect of that is to maximize Corsi.

    It’s weak analogy, but I’d say it’s something like a manager saying he wants to maximize profit this quarter. Of course he/she does, but in reality, a manager doesn’t control profit. They either increase sales (faster than concomitant increase in costs), or reduce costs (faster than concomitant decrease in sales). Those are the points of control. Profit is an outcome. If they can optimize the things they control, they can maximize profit.

    Talking about maximizing profit is a shorthand for the maximization of the things you actually control as part of the process that gets you there.

  122. G Money says:

    PhrankLee,

    Now we just, need, Arizona, to, implode. [Shatner voice]

  123. BeerMe says:

    Blue Jackets have allowed 4 or more goals in every game so far, 34GA in 7 games. Holy hell, that rivals our Eakins-era suckage!

  124. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    Fricking hilarious, because, that’s exactly, what I, was,…after.

  125. godot10 says:

    There is really no incentive to tank anymore. The first three draft picks are now decided by lottery were the last place team only has about a 20% chance of picking #1, #2, or #3.

    The most probable result of tanking is that you pick 4th now, approximately 40%.

    Basically tanking is a coin fllip for a top three pick or picking #4.

    Plus. Would your rather have Dylan Larkin, Sam Bennett, or Leon Draisaitl.
    Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, or Jacob Trouba? MacKinnon, Drouin, or Jones?

    i.e. Unless there is a generational talent, who is doing the drafting is more important than who is drafted.

  126. Ribs says:

    Tired this morning. Read the title as SHIT VOLUME. IT’S THE REAL THING. haha

  127. fifthcartel says:

    whoops wrong thread

  128. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar: You need to watch last night’s game then.

    I saw highlights. Didnt look good on those.

  129. Finding Shooters | The SuperFan says:

    […] Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone. Source […]

  130. The Oilers and Rebounds | The SuperFan says:

    […] Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone. – Todd McLellan (Source) […]

  131. Cult of Hockey: Todd McLellan’s OK with the Oilers stockpiling centres | Edmonton Journal says:

    […] are lots of reasons why McLellan might prefer to couch things the way he does. A real cynic—Lowetide’s Allan Mitchell, for example—might note the effect of the comment. The analytics community may need to wipe away a tear every […]

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca