PIPELINE!

We’re early in the 2015-16 season but the Bakersfield Condors have been helping the big club in a very real way. Early callups like Andrew Miller and Iiro Pakarinen and recent trips north from Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl have given a boost to the Oilers at a vital time.

The Oklahoma City Barons gifted Edmonton a long list of prospects over five years. Were any of them of the calibre suggested by Nurse and Draisaitl? Jeff Petry was far and away the most productive Barons player in terms of NHL GP (this is top 10, doesn’t include this year’s NHL games).

NHL GP BY OKC BARONS 2010-2015

  1. Jeff Petry 314
  2. Magnus Paajarvi 228
  3. Justin Schultz 203
  4. Colin McDonald 138
  5. Anton Lander 132
  6. Mark Arcobello 119
  7. Chris VandeVelde 118
  8. Martin Marincin 85
  9. Linus Omark 79
  10. Oscar Klefbom 77

By the time they are through, Klefbom may be the best player of the bunch but it’s too soon to know. I kind of feel, and have expressed, that Nurse and Draisaitl were too good for the AHL, too bona fide for the league. There was just so much, too much, that allowed them to be top 10 overall draft picks, that spending time in the minors felt to me like a self-imposed error by management.

  • “We know this team turns over prospects too soon and elevates them before they’re ready. To show our new found rational and intelligent approach, we’re going to send these two bona fide kids down there because we can.” (This is not an actual quote)

That never made any sense to me, not at any time. Darnell Nurse was kept in the AHL division during the entire training camp, earning only brief looks and playing with certain Condor Joey Laleggia as his partner most of the time. Leon scored seemingly at will during TC, didn’t do him one bit of good. That struck me as inherently unfair, and ran counter with what we have learned over the decades from minor league auditions.

I’ve written at length about what kind of minor league players flourish and develop in the AHL, and there’s a profile for minor leaguers that reveals itself when you stare at this stuff long enough. Two player-types are found in the AHL who eventually have substantial NHL careers:

  • Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani types who have one outstanding skill (speed, two-way acumen) but need a place to develop their skills, grind their own weaknesses from their game, and to learn how to survive while adding an offensive component to their game.
  • Mike Walton, Rob Schremp types who have offensive value but something in their game (discipline, discipline) holding them back.

Which of these categories sounds like Darnell Nurse? Leon Draisaitl? The ‘stars’ of the AHL development system are men like Daniel Cleary, Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani, Jeff Petry and hopefully Anton Lander. Darnell Nurse has no skating issues, Leon Draisaitl is not a Rob Schremp comparable in my books—you may feel differently. I think it’s far easier to make the argument for Griffin Reinhart than either of these prospects.

The slow-footed defenseman is not the future. Ladies and gentlemen, Darnell Nurse! Condors play tonight, it’s an earlier road game and I’ll have updates from that game and the college and junior action.

Pitlick is back in action, that second line should be fun. Scott Zerr made a point of mentioning Braden Christoffer as having impressed this year, and the 4C always finds a way to make an impact.

Still no Dillon Simpson, wonder if he’s had a setback? If only Martin Gernat’s Dad had told him the Charles Atlas story.

 

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102 Responses to "PIPELINE!"

  1. Bulging Twine says:

    Don’t look now but did the Oilers draft and develop a defenceman in the 6th round?!
    Too early to say

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bulging Twine,

    Yup.

    For my money the best Dmen on the team are:

    Nurse
    Klefbom
    Sekera
    Reinhart
    Schultz
    Fayne
    Davidson
    Gryba
    Nikitin
    Ference

    And Davidson is getting better every day… and he’s about as cheap as you can get. There is value in that. I believe you need 8 NHL ready Dmen on any team, and for that reason I also believe there is value in Gryba even if I rank him at 8.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    Would be interesting too if immigration or the Avangard Omsk deal falls through and, and Nikitin ends up playing some important games down the stretch for the Oil as a callup next spring.

    Wouldn’t that be something.

  4. lynn says:

    I like the second line for the Condors tonight, too–size, decent skill, and speed. This is a line that could dominate at the AHL level, and provide players for Oilers’ call-ups.

  5. haters says:

    I just as impressed as anyone is after a couple games but LT, Petrangelo says hi …and a myriad of others who may have had the chops to play at the NHL level but because of existing contracts and common sense they develop a year or 2 in the minors.

    We were all saying last year that the NHL isn’t the place to develop young players. So we watch Nurse and Drai play 1 or 2 adrenalin fueled games and throw common sense out the window ?? Possiblly putting the team in a cap situation ?

    It was nice to see
    If they prove it over the next 5-10-20 games I’m with ya 100%
    But it was one game … One win … Let’s act like we’ve scored a few in our day and stop the insanity ..

    I think the vets not named Ferance or Purcell will take notice and step up their game markedly giving Peter the breathing room to do the sane cap friendly thing, and send those 2 down after some body’s get back. Jmo

  6. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    I just as impressed as anyone is after a couple games but LT, Petrangelo says hi …and a myriad of others who may have had the chops to play at the NHL level but because of existing contracts and common sense they develop a year or 2 in the minors.

    I said this long before last night, have been talking about it for months. Nurse is one of the six best defensemen on the roster and he MAY be Pietrangelo so playing him now makes a lot of sense. I don’t think he got a real shot in TC but he’s earned a full look now.

    I believe the Oilers wanted Reinhart to grab the job, and he did. That said, Nurse was sent early to the AHL side and only now (imo) is McLellan going to get a full look at the player.

    My RE has Nurse playing more than Reinhart and I believe there’s every chance we see that during the season.

  7. John Chambers says:

    Nurse and Draisaitl were obvious call-ups to happen in the early part of the season, and they’re having an NHL impact ahead of schedule.

    Next player to get the call-up and stay: Laurent Brossoit

  8. böök¡je says:

    I think that the real fake conversation may have been something like “These two are good enough to make this team right now, but we have to separate some of the wheat from the chaff among some of the older guys and it never hurts to send a message to the young guys that playing in the NHL is never a given so they shouldn’t take it for granted. They will be up in a couple of weeks anyway, so lets just send them down for a dozen or so games and then go from there”

  9. Lowetide says:

    böök¡je:
    I think that the real fake conversation may have been something like “These two are good enough to make this team right now, but we have to separate some of the wheat from the chaff among some of the older guys and it never hurts to send a message to the young guys that playing in the NHL is never a given so they shouldn’t take it for granted.They will be up in a couple of weeks anyway, so lets just send them down for a dozen or so games and then go from there”

    Completely fair. My take will get more reaction. 🙂

  10. G Money says:

    I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

  11. Chachi says:

    haters,

    Pietrangelo played 8 games total in the AHL and had 3 assists. Not sure why there seems to be some thought out there that he had put in serious time in the minors or that he was super successful while there.

  12. Woodguy says:

    haters,

    I just as impressed as anyone is after a couple games but LT, Petrangelo says hi …and a myriad of others who may have had the chops to play at the NHL level but because of existing contracts and common sense they develop a year or 2 in the minors.

    Pietrangelo played exactly 1 AHL game.

    Its funny you bring him up because he is a very close comp to Nurse.

    The thing is though that using Pietraneglo as a comp is an argument FOR having Nurse in Edmonton.

    STL had him play 8 games in his draft +1 year then sent him back to the OHL and he played 1 game in the AHL at the end of that year.

    STL then had him play 9 games in his draft +2 year then sent him back to the OHL

    Then in his draft +3 year, the same year Nurse is in, he started in STL.

    He played with Colaiacovo for 20 games on the 2/3 pair, then with Jackman for the rest of the year on the first pairing.

    There you go.

    If you are going to invoke a player’s name to show Nurse should be developed further, don’t pick one with less AHL games than him.

  13. Pouzar says:

    Did I not say Drai was due for a multi point game? 😛

  14. blainer says:

    Woodguy:
    haters,

    I just as impressed as anyone is after a couple games but LT, Petrangelo says hi …and a myriad of others who may have had the chops to play at the NHL level but because of existing contracts and common sense they develop a year or 2 in the minors.

    Pietrangelo played exactly 1 AHL game.

    Its funny you bring him up because he is a very close comp to Nurse.

    The thing is though that using Pietraneglo as a comp is an argument FOR having Nurse in Edmonton.

    STL had him play 8 games in his draft year then sent him back to the OHLand he played 1 game in the AHL at the end of that year.

    STL then had him play 9 games in his draft +1 year then sent him back to the OHL

    Then in his draft +3 year, the same year Nurse is in, he started in STL.

    He played with Colaiacovo for 20 games on the 2/3 pair, then with Jackman for the rest of the year on the first pairing.

    There you go.

    If you are going to invoke a player’s name to show Nurse should be developed further, don’t pick one with less AHL games than him.

    IMO Nurse proved he could play with the big boys during the AHL playoffs last year.. he should have made the team out of camp..

    I think the new mandate is send them all down no matter how they play at camp. A policy that would have worked wonders for Lander Gagner etc but IMO doesn’t fit for Nurse.. He IS NHL ready..

    Drai is a very deceptive player out there.. He looks slow but is faster than ya think.. I really think Nurse will stay but not so certain about Drai.

    Playing Drai on a unicorns line with Lander and Purcell will get him a quick trip back to the minors.. He needs to play with a player that has speed..

  15. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy:
    haters,

    I just as impressed as anyone is after a couple games but LT, Petrangelo says hi …and a myriad of others who may have had the chops to play at the NHL level but because of existing contracts and common sense they develop a year or 2 in the minors.

    Pietrangelo played exactly 1 AHL game.

    Its funny you bring him up because he is a very close comp to Nurse.

    The thing is though that using Pietraneglo as a comp is an argument FOR having Nurse in Edmonton.

    STL had him play 8 games in his draft +1 year then sent him back to the OHLand he played 1 game in the AHL at the end of that year.

    STL then had him play 9 games in his draft +2 year then sent him back to the OHL

    Then in his draft +3 year, the same year Nurse is in, he started in STL.

    He played with Colaiacovo for 20 games on the 2/3 pair, then with Jackman for the rest of the year on the first pairing.

    There you go.

    If you are going to invoke a player’s name to show Nurse should be developed further, don’t pick one with less AHL games than him.

    mic drop (as the kids sometimes say)

  16. RT26 says:

    I think continuity of partnerships will be critical for our young D. I would aim to play the rest of the year with a bottom 5 D structure of

    Nurse. Klefbom
    Reinhardt. Faye
    Davidson

    I would then play Sekera with Jultz. First, Jultz is the best RHD on the roster (assuming no one plays on their off side). Second, playing him gives him ample time to either prove his long term value, or more likely inflate his value for a trade or free agency. Then go hunt for a true top pair D-man in the off-season,

  17. Bling says:

    I’m with LT, here.

    It’s pretty clear that Darnell Nurse was too good for the AHL in last year’s playoffs, and by all accounts he was absolutely dominant in his final year of junior, probably one of the best 3 or 4 D his age in the CHL.

    HIs skating, by my eye, is on par with Taylor Hall’s. When he gets going through the neutral zone, there’s not a hell of a lot anyone can do about it. His recovery skills are insane, and already (IMO) he’s the best Oiler D at breaking the cycle since Pronger.

    I’m not saying he is Pronger, but it’s difficult to imagine him as anything less than a top pairing D. He’s definitely a legit top 4 now.

  18. Gordies Elbow says:

    Wow.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxQ_QrdEk0U

    I’m actually gleeful. Full of glee.

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    In today’s presser, MacLellan defined the identity of the team they are looking for;
    Fast
    Hard
    Supportive

    He explained what he means by each of those.

    This will be a good clue as to which players they are looking at keeping and who they may not be as high on/need to work with or in fact let go.

    Probably quite a few players who need to continue to work on playing harder (by MacLellan’s definition of harder). I think Hall, Eberle, Schultz, Reinhart, Purcell, Lander, Fayne are a few.
    btw would say RNH is one of the hardest players we have (by MacLellan’s definition). Others would be Pouliot, McDavid, Hendricks, Nurse, Klefbom are some who I think play hard.

    Playing faster: Fayne, Reinhart, Lander, Purcell, Gryba are a few who could work on this.
    RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yak, McDavid, Pouliot, Nurse, Klefbom, are some who seem to play fast.

  20. Bulging Twine says:

    good feed for the condors game???

  21. Lowetide says:

    Vesel with an assist early and Nagelvoort 9 stops in 10 shots, college play.

  22. Bulging Twine says:

    Arcobello has cleared waivers, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie

  23. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

    A shot version of your studies was created by lange many years ago.
    Your fenwickcharts are a copy of his work.
    A simple brain uderstands subtracting averaged blocks is one step away from shots.

    Search the net before you publish.
    Failing to credit is a No No

  24. Pouzar says:

    Hunt walks through 4 Stars on the PP one entry and picks the glove side. Wow that was pretty.

    1-0 Condors

  25. Pouzar says:

    Condors kill off McRae minor then get hemmed in for a solid minute after he steps out of box.

  26. TheOtherJohn says:

    Have seen repeated references to Nurse being similar to Pietrangelo. Also saw Blue Bullets article that supports the argument. Do not see the simikarities. One is a very fast skating physical D who can be a strong defender and Pietrangelo is more of an offensive QB.

    Don’t think Nurse ever becomes s 1D but have no doubt he is s top 4 D on a SC caliber team

  27. Lowetide says:

    Hunt scores

  28. Pouzar says:

    Nice long breakout pass by Leggs to McRae there.

    Seems like that long pass is there all the time in the “A”.
    So much more time and space and b/c of it there are a lot of nice looking passes.

  29. haters says:

    Woodguy,

    I bring him up because I don’t think we can even compare the two players at the same points in their careers. Nurse has played a total of 2 games albeit quite well. If he keeps it up I’m all for keeping him up.

    I’ll say it again in case you missed it. 2 games.

    It’s insane how much pressure this fan base puts on young men who show flashes early.

    If you are comparing Pertranglo in any way skill and pedigree wise ? It’s just not there I’m sorry. Again jmo

  30. Pouzar says:

    1-1.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Tad Hamilton bangs home rebound after a Ford wrap around attempt.

    2-1 Condors

  32. Bulging Twine says:

    Oilers 4th round pick from 2012 playing tonight for the defending Stanley Cup champions.
    Not playing much though.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Hamilton from Matt Ford 2-1 Bakersfield.

  34. haters says:

    Lowetide,

    MacLellan had a whole training camp to evaluate Nurse and found him lacking. So
    Much so that he was an earlier cut. I’m excited and impressed by the man too, but let’s not expect to much from him. Like I said, I fully expect a drop off in play from him and veterans to step up. I’d rather look at this as a great learning experience for him instead of annointing him the team #1 D man after 2 games tyvm.

  35. Pouzar says:

    2-1 after one.

    Another nice zone exit pass from Leggs to Khaira and the Stars player slashes his stick in two.
    PP upcoming in period 2 for Condors.

  36. Hoodaha says:

    Nurse will easily be a top 4 Dman, probably even a top 2 guy. Even so, I’d be careful about saying he’s already the best dman on the team or comparable to Pietrangelo. Small sample size. Good signs so far though.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Hunt the goat on the game tying goal. Looks like Orr one second and Cross the next.

  38. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar:
    Did I not say Drai was due for a multi point game?

    I thought bookijie called that? Anyway, fcuk that entity.

    The Bobfather on young Oilers (audio): http://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/mckenzie-nurse-and-draisaitl-giving-chiarelli-something-to-think-about-1.385370

  39. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    It’s a blog post, not a paper.

    Quite a few people over the years have created their own versions of shot and distance adjustment – as I make note of in my text.

    Note that this is not particularly original conceptual work – forms of these types of adjustments have been tried by many people in many different ways. I’m mostly applying my own methodology to a large volume of data.

    If I were to ‘credit’ all who have tried, the list of ‘credits’ would be forty people long. By the time the list is that long, there isn’t much left to credit.

    Should I be crediting Vic Ferrari for Corsi, or Matt Fenwick for Fenwick too?

    The point of my work is that it is *better* than the attempts that have gone before.

    I do not know who ‘lange’ is, but whoever he is, none of the work I’ve done is based on his.

    All data for my work comes from the NHL using scrapers I wrote myself.

    All of the formulas I derived myself, and all calculations, charts, and everything else are created from scratch using designs I put together myself, and scripts I wrote myself.

    If anyone is to get credit for the chart formats, it would be the creators of Python toolkits pandas, matplotlib, and seaborn, since I use an awful lot of default settings.

    Where there is work that is closest in the modern context to what I’m doing (WOI = A. C. Thomas though I don’t mention him by name, DTMAboutHeart, and Michael Shuckers), I’ve referenced.

    Perhaps you should read it before you criticize it.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Hunt again. Impact AHL player.

  41. Pouzar says:

    Hunt scores again to make it 3-1.
    Texas goes back to back.

    3-3

  42. Caramel Obvious says:

    Add plagiarism or “failing to credit” to the list of things rickibear knows nothing about.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Hunt again. Impact AHL player.

    -2 on the night.

  44. Woogie63 says:

    I have liked Pitlick’s game tonight, but I wish he would cash every now and then.

  45. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: Perhaps you should read it before you criticize it.

    ~ G, you should use your super powers for good instead of using X Ray vision to read inside the bear”s sealed postnarked envelopes ~

  46. Caramel Obvious says:

    I should add that citing/referencing has nothing to do with “giving credit.” You cite to preserve the continuity of knowledge.

  47. Woogie63 says:

    The AHL fans always look like they are having fun!

    I wonder what a beer costs?

  48. Pouzar says:

    3 unanswered.

    4-3 Texas

  49. fifthcartel says:

    I’m convinced Winquist is better than at least half of their prospects in the AHL right now.

  50. Pouzar says:

    5-3 now for Stars

  51. Kmart99 says:

    rickithebear: A shot version of your studies was created by lange many years ago.
    Your fenwickcharts are a copy of his work.
    A simple brain uderstands subtracting averaged blocks is one step away from shots.

    Search the net before you publish.
    Failing to credit is a No No

    Haters gon’ hate.

    Excellent addition to the conversation Ricki. I can’t wait to hear more.

  52. Zelepukin says:

    Wideman – Russell. The Gryba-Ference of the south.

  53. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m convinced Winquist is better than at least half of their prospects in the AHL right now.

    He’s a very smart player and has terrific skill. Last season’s time in the ECHL benefited him a lot.

    tonight in the ECHL: Marco Roy 2A, Greg Chase 1A, Alex Loiseau 2G and Rimmer 37 saves in 39 shots.

  54. Gordies Elbow says:

    Zelepukin:
    Wideman – Russell. The Gryba-Ference of the south.

    Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for -119.

    Yeesh.

  55. Pouzar says:

    Winquist makes it 5-4

  56. Lowetide says:

    Oesterle and Khaira with the apples. Khaira posting more boxcars this year.

  57. Zelepukin says:

    Gordies Elbow: Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for-119.

    Yeesh.

    Truly awesome.

  58. Sugar Reijo says:

    Gordies Elbow: Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for-119.

    Yeesh.

    And in a contract year too. Ouch!

  59. Pouzar says:

    Final

    5-4 Stars

  60. rickithebear says:

    G money:

    I too have run data set only to find out some one else had done this.

    6////8 years ago i looked at shot quality as a whole.
    Lange had already completed it.
    The shape of his curves told me something he had not considered.
    Shot Density!

    fenwick shows the same thing.

    it is frustrating as hell.

    but what you have done as a visually overlay each shot curve in my mind is, as an average, the shape of fenwick is similar/the same as Fewick.

    you confirmed the structure of each shot curve.
    The success volume will be constant for each type of shot.

    You are the kind of person that can chase the data.

    What you need to advance too is generating individual curves for individual players shooting.
    and
    Individual defence man’s shot density suppression.

    I know you can do it.

    And now my brain cannot!

    Shitty day yesterday.

    Memory; brain function; blood test suggest.

    STM loss @ 51 likley greater than a year old with identified coping mechanisms.

    Zero LTM loss.

    Start the early onset program next week.

    but i can still remember the 200,00 drawings, 30,000 manuals, 3000 contracts I have wisked thru for tech data for the plant.

    My wife has a good sense of humour.

    1. Hopefully you remember why you have postits and task lists. that match with coping techniques.
    2. Honey lets go to the hanna manor (old folks) for dinner.
    3, Really we have had sex twice a day for the last year!

  61. RexLibris says:

    Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

    Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

  62. dustrock says:

    TMI.

  63. dustrock says:

    RexLibris:
    Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

    Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

    Hrudey said he enjoyed watching the Oilers win.

  64. RexLibris says:

    dustrock: Hrudey said he enjoyed watching the Oilers win.

    Last game it was in Calgary and the broadcast group was more or less a Flames’ homer group.

    This game is in Edmonton. I expect them to focus on the Flames, regardless of the score. With honourable mention to McDavid.

  65. jp says:

    rickithebear:

    Shitty day yesterday.

    Memory; brain function; blood test suggest.

    STM loss @ 51 likley greater than a year old with identified coping mechanisms.

    Zero LTM loss.

    Start the early onset program next week.

    You’ve been a bit of a dick tonight, but that is some tough news.

    Truly sorry to hear it.

  66. Picturesque says:

    RexLibris:
    Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

    Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

    Love it! And will Hartley still be on the payroll after the Oilers win tomorrow night? I think the Oilers can once again be the coach killers they’ve known to be the past few years – but this time for the other team.

  67. RexLibris says:

    Picturesque: Love it!And will Hartley still be on the payroll after the Oilers win tomorrow night? I think the Oilers can once again be the coach killers they’ve known to be the past few years – but this time for the other team.

    I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

  68. Johnny skid says:

    RexLibris: I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

    i am in favour of your fantasy to come true.

  69. Picturesque says:

    RexLibris: I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

    man, in a perfect world… in a perfect world…

  70. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: That’s an awful turn. Hang in there, thinking of you.

  71. RexLibris says:

    These are not Jaques Lemaire’s Minnesota.

  72. Магия 10 says:

    rickithebear: You are the kind of person that can chase the data.
    What you need to advance too is generating individual curves for individual players shooting.
    and
    Individual defence man’s shot density suppression.
    I know you can do it.

    ~ The mental image shifts again. The bear is a hologram in the secret polar lab that G Money has stumbled into in pursuit of the density matrix ~

    More seriously. Sorry to hear the result. It’s good to be surrounded with love at all times.

  73. RexLibris says:

    So…

    …commenters on FN are starting to ask about the draft.

    Check the timer, I think the worm needs turning.

  74. Магия 10 says:

    RexLibris:
    So…

    …commenters on FN are starting to ask about the draft.

    Check the timer, I think the worm needs turning.

    Frightening thing is that we have just as many regulation losses. They’ll be gunning for the Oil after a 6 -2 lioss.

  75. RexLibris says:

    Elliotte Friedman Retweeted
    Randy Sportak ‏@SUNRandySportak 13m13 minutes ago

    Ramo to start for #Flames tomorrow in Edmonton

  76. Ice Sage says:

    RexLibris:
    Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

    Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

    LOL – well he is a 3rd line goalie

  77. Gordies Elbow says:

    RexLibris:
    Elliotte Friedman Retweeted
    Randy Sportak ‏@SUNRandySportak 13m13 minutes ago

    Ramo to start for #Flames tomorrow in Edmonton

    3 games played, 0.879 save percentage, and 4.37 GAA this season?

    Playing next on Halloween.

    Sleep well, Mr. Ramo.

    The nightmares about Connor McDavid are yet to come…

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Магия 10: https://streamable.com/72xv

    ya I’m absolutely not getting mouthy about the flames yet. They’ll be pissed off tomorrow and Edmonton has a long long history of disappointing

  79. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

  80. Ice Sage says:

    LadiesloveSmid: ya I’m absolutely not getting mouthy about the flames yet. They’ll be pissed off tomorrow and Edmonton has a long long history of disappointing

    I understand not wanting to jinx anything but these are 2 teams trending in opposite directions. Who cares if they’re ‘pissed off’? Oilers are home, 2 days rested, playing loose yet exuberant hockey and the phlegms…. well, maybe they can dress up as hockey players tomorrow night

  81. RexLibris says:

    Ice Sage: well, maybe they can dress up as hockey players tomorrow night

    Damn. I’m going to use that, if you don’t mind. Perfect.

  82. RexLibris says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

    Tyutin for Fayne?

  83. striker says:

    Lowetide:
    Oesterle and Khaira with the apples. Khaira posting more boxcars this year.

    Khaira with 4 pts in 7 games so far. What’s the Mendoza line (AHL ppg) we can hope that JJ maintains in Bakersfield to project him as a possible future NHL winger?

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-next-best-bet-at-bakersfield-j-j-khaira

  84. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RexLibris: Tyutin for Fayne?

    I’d consider that. Tyutin being 32 is a problem. Might be a better fit for Edmonton than Fayne, Fayne might be a Tortorella kind of player.

  85. striker says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

    Interesting tidbit. We have to employ all resources at our disposal.

    Ask Howson whether the Oilers should trade for him and then do the opposite.

  86. AsiaOil says:

    Fayne for Tyutin?

    Same contract length but a bit lower cap hit for Columbus and Fayne is a bit younger. Would be worried about the wheels starting to fall off Tyutin at 32 given his workload over the years.

    Probably pass – need to clear out guys more than add another problem.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

  87. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Best wishes to you, Ricki.

  88. Barcs says:

    G Money:
    I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

    This is fascinating stuff. Thanks for all of your hard work.

    I’m a very casual follower of hockey analytics, so forgive me if this is a silly question, but is there anything that you can do or already do in order to take into account the quality of the shooter?

    I suppose what I’m saying is that I assume Steven Stamkos will have a higher average shooting percentage than John Scott (as an extreme example). Is there anything you can do to account for that?

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Barcs: This is fascinating stuff. Thanks for all of your hard work.

    I’m a very casual follower of hockey analytics, so forgive me if this is a silly question, but is there anything that you can do or already do in order to take into account the quality of the shooter?

    I suppose what I’m saying is that I assume Steven Stamkos will have a higher average shooting percentage than John Scott (as an extreme example). Is there anything you can do to account for that?

    My extreme example (years ago) used to be, what is more dangerous, Sheldon Souray blasting away from just outside home plate, or Ladi Smid from just inside?

  90. Barcs says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I was going to use the ol’ Ryan Smyth muffin slapshot as my example, but didn’t want to risk incurring this blog’s collective rath.

    Besides, Smytty spent so much time at the goalmouth that I’d bet he had a fairly decent sh% even with all those outside clappers. Call it the Shaquille O’Neil effect. (Shaq has one of the highest sh% in NBA history b/c he only dunked or took layups from in close. Just don’t ask him to take a free throw).

  91. jp says:

    G Money:
    I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

    Nice to see a little bit more about what goes into these metrics.

    I hadn’t appreciated the average danger multiplier before now. I guess it’s a repeatable skill, but it will be interesting to see how consistent it actually is.

    Are you planning to periodically do a summary of the cumulative totals for your various metrics? Maybe in 10 game segments?

  92. rickithebear says:

    jp: You’ve been a bit of a dick tonight, but that is some tough news.

    Truly sorry to hear it.

    G money is an intellectual freak in my mind!

    That is praise!

    Just cause he did all that work to create curves that already exist is a fact of life.

    lange did not realize what he created or had.

    He was miles ahead of everyone.

    Just like Michael Scmucher @ St. lawrence.

    G money will likely advance the system to a finite measure.

    He is the voice for this approach!

    but do not forget were the advances came from.

    Lange is the shot curve god!

    Dickish!

    there are those that steal credit for work.

    those that do not.

    Money supported a pre existing result that advanced the concept.

    I guarantee he was unaware of lange’s results.

    He is a better man to be advancing the concepts.

    I am going to work on the retention of STM to lock into my LTM.

    and

    do everything in my power to get myself to age 75 when it took out my Gramp’s; and is taking my dad!

    River paddle boarding seems like a summer vice i will target.

    I will continue to come participate in the great analytics and discourse!

  93. Numenius says:

    This has probably been noted before, but for some perspective…

    Aside from the Kings (7), the Oilers’ losses have only been to teams in 4th place or above in their respective conference: Dallas (1), Nashville (2), St. Louis (3), Minnesota (4) in the West and Washington (3) in the East.

    They also just beat the #1 team in the league with a bunch of rookies.

  94. v4ance says:

    Numenius:
    This has probably been noted before, but for some perspective…

    Aside from the Kings (7), the Oilers’ losses have only been to teams in 4th place or above in their respective conference: Dallas (1), Nashville (2), St. Louis (3), Minnesota (4) in the West and Washington (3) in the East.

    They also just beat the #1 team in the league with a bunch of rookies.

    Plus they did it dragging around Ference.

    I didn’t know the score tonight but as I got on the train at Sommerset-Bridlewood here in Calgary, I heard the chants of “Ole, Ole Ole…” from the Montreal fans leaving the station. I figured it was good news =D

  95. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: G money is an intellectual freak in my mind!

    That is praise!

    Just cause he did all that work to create curves that already exist is a fact of life.

    lange did not realize what he created or had.

    He was miles ahead of everyone.

    Just like Michael Scmucher @ St. lawrence.

    G money will likely advance the system to a finite measure.

    He is the voice for this approach!

    but do not forget were the advances came from.

    Lange is the shot curve god!

    Dickish!

    there are those that steal credit for work.

    those that do not.

    Money supported a pre existing result that advanced the concept.

    I guarantee he was unaware of lange’s results.

    He is a better man to be advancing the concepts.

    I am going to work on the retention of STM to lock into my LTM.

    and

    do everything in my power to get myself to age 75 when it took out my Gramp’s; and is taking my dad!

    River paddle boarding seems like a summer vice i will target.

    I will continue to come participate in the great analytics and discourse!

    I’m guessing you had Tesla taking Edison at the Vegas Böök¡je’s?

    I did too.

    🙁

  96. spoiler says:

    I would like to have participated in the game day blog but I was with a Habs fan, a man who actually put on an Eberle jersey to go with me to watch Oil vs Flames at the SadDome.

    I’m 6 foot 215, played a lot of sports, but this guy is 265 ex-linebacker and through the first half of the game he was talking smack, and there’s not a lot I can do about it, lol.

    This man also loves Petry and rides me about that trade constantly. I give him the laser unicorn eyes.

    He’s also been riding me about no improvement in the Oiler game and I’ve been telling him he’s wrong it’s about a lack of consistency and discipline.

    Yet then… about half way thru the second he looks at me and goes “You’re going to score, you’re playing right.”

    After the Oil 2nd goal he says, “You keep playing like this and you’re going to win.” And that felt good. Coz he was convinced this team plays better at times and I wanted him to see that.

    But the last goal lit him up. I mean on Pou’s breakaway he was initially critical of Price and I pointed out that shooting quickly was key to that goal, but Deharnais behind the net… He lost it.

    It was as close to Jultzing as you will get from a Hab; Deharnais had time and options and took advantage of neither. A little hustle and Nuge doesn’t even get there.

    “Fucking Lollygagger” were his exact words.

    It was an enjoyable game.

  97. spoiler says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    You have been on fire today. Your two big posts in the morning thread were absolutely… stellar lol. Consider writing a fucking book. Find a new hook that fits you. Your memory for hockey games is beyond elephantine.

    Perhaps that juxtaposition of the young and old crews…

  98. PhrankLee says:

    rickithebear,

    Late to the dance with jetlag in the Mddle East. Sorry to hear the news, Riki The.

    Go Oil.

    Fuck you Bookjie

    Fuck the Flames.

  99. Lackadaisical says:

    I’m not familiar with the in depth analytics, so forgive me if this is way off but; I do wonder if your danger adjusted fenwick, G Money, would be valuable when you break down how often a player takes a shot, pass, steals/loses the puck, from a high danger position, forecasting aggressive/smart players through comparison.

    It does seem, you could adjust the individuals goal/save % in each danger area vs shots taken. And it might tell you a good bit about finishers and goalies. Doing something, when in the right place.

    Is there anything like a high danger zone for passing to get the A? Might there be?

  100. jp says:

    rickithebear,

    My comment was directed more to your delivery than the content of what you said. JMO.

  101. Sugar Reijo says:

    Crazy lifetime career splits: Carey Price is now 1-6-1 against the Oilers, with a 3.75 GAA and .856 save percentage.

    He’s also 3-5 lifetime vs. Calgary. Conversely he’s 6-2-2 against Vancouver with a .924 save percentage, so it’s not all of western Canada but just Alberta that is death valley for him.

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