G12 2015-16: FLAMES AT OILERS

It’s early to have an ‘important’ game in a long season, but the Calgary Flames have one tonight at Rexall. Despite poor possession numbers and chaos blue, despite voodoo goaltending and a coach who says genuinely unusual things, the Calgary Flames have to win the game. Their season depends on it.

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS, THIS MORNING

  • No. 11 Edmonton Oilers 11GP, 4-7-0 (8 points)
  • No. 12 Colorado Avalanche 10GP, 3-6-1 (7 points)
  • No. 13 Calgary Flames 11GP, 2-8-1 (5 points)
  • No. 14 Anaheim Ducks 10GP, 1-7-2 (4 points)

All four of these teams are in real trouble (the Bettman point!!!) but the Flames (and Ducks) are staring a very long season in the face at an early stage. Although Oilers fans have a right to be impatient, a win tonight (and a 5-7-0 record) would offer some hope for the future. Coming out of the worst part of the schedule, with the Flyers on the schedule this week (Philadelphia’s defense does a lot of things Edmonton fans would recognize). The Battle of Alberta has a dubious backdrop at this time, but at least it’s a story line.

OILERS BLUE THROUGH ELEVEN

OIL D AFTER 11

This is sorted by Corsi Rel, I added it in the hopes of gaining some insight into Mark Fayne’s fall from grace. Based on these numbers, he’s absolutely one of the six best solutions on the roster:

  • 5×5 Corsi for % over 50%
  • Corsi Rel is No. 1 among regular D
  • He is not getting a ZS push
  • Fayne—Sekera is 48.3% Corsi for % as a tandem.

Remember, our eyes can play tricks on us, that’s why we look at the numbers to confirm. Why is Fayne posting these fancy stats and getting deeper in the doghouse? Why did he play so little the other night? I think it has to do with Todd McLellan’s preference on the defense, and Eric Gryba’s emergence as the shutdown defenseman who plays the most minutes. Gryba is less expensive, bigger, more physical and of course he was acquired by GM Peter Chiarelli. All of those things may contribute to Fayne’s recent handling, and I suspect we’ll see him dealt at some point this season. His footspeed is not good, and his defense of sorties (in terms of decision making) is often alarming.

What does that mean for the Oilers blue? Well, by the time Justin Schultz returns we’ll know more about Darnell Nurse and where he stands. Perhaps Todd McLellan will also continue to give Brandon Davidson a push to see if the young blue continues to play at par. There’s also Griffin Reinhart, who played well enough early with Eric Gryba to stay in the lineup until injuries hit.

  • Andrej Sekera—Brandon Davidson
  • Darnell Nurse—Oscar Klefbom
  • Griffin Reinhart—Eric Gryba

Could we see HS’s for Mark Fayne and Andrew Ference? It may happen. One thing I believe the box above shows? Giving Justin Schultz a tough zone start probably isn’t the right choice. I believe Dallas Eakins got it right.

DANGER FENWICK RATE PER 60

danger fen

I lifted this from the brilliant blog Oilers Nerd Alert, please click on the link because I didn’t ask permission to do it. I think young G is on to something here, this DFA/60 number (Dangerous Fenwick) from the Habs game is very insightful and offers some reasoning re: Fayne’s handling. I have been (and am) very conservative in adopting new stats, for two reasons:

  • The idea is to post stats that both inform and can be easily understood.

I like this for one other major reason, via GMoney: Interesting fact – the TOI for the defensemen is directly correlated with how good they were at preventing dangerous shots against.

That’s a strong indicator a solid backward Bill James (James would ask a question and search for the answer, then track it back using logic and good sense). The above item from G is exactly that kind of logic and reason. There’s something here, or perhaps more accurate, there’s something I am able to comprehend as having value. That’s kind of what Bill James was good at it, and it’s wildly important. It also gives us a glimpse into why Mark Fayne isn’t playing as much.

OILERS FORWARDS THROUGH ELEVEN

OILF AFTER 11

Oh that crazy Taylor Hall is always falling down and passing silly and looking like a man who can’t remember the last thought that went through his head. That’s about right. Hall’s critics often deliver high comedy, as the actual performance is absolutely dandy again this season. Slow start but he’s killing it; the man can push a river.

Connor McDavid’s 5×5/60 is dreamy and his on-ice performances are must-watch events for hockey fans. I know older people can be irritating when talking to the young set, but please enjoy this young man’s rookie season. You won’t see another like it in your lifetime and if you do, well, you’ll get emotional watching the games. What a stunning talent. In game 11 of his NHL career he beat one of the best defensemen in the game, on a play that might have resulted in a penalty. How a man could be both unavoidable to the viewer and stealth to the opposition is the stuff of legends. We’re running out of words.

Nail Yakupov’s boxcars are splendid and his level of awareness—especially in the offensive end—is reaching new levels. There’s a tendency to credit others for his development, but Nail is his own man and we rarely take into account that lost half-season. Hard to believe this is the same player, although he reminds us from time to time with an errant pass or a burst to nowhere in order leave his man open in the defensive zone. Damnable dog whistles are everywhere!

A final note: This is a big damned game. Seriously. The Oilers are 4-7-0 and that’s a reflection of the good and bad on this team. If they can win tonight, no matter what it does to Calgary, it offers players, fans and management some kind of hope for this season. It can’t always be about trade deadline selloffs and ‘let’s look at the 2016 draft’ and with a win tonight we can dare to dream.

Peter Chiarelli is going to make a move to improve the defense, I’m convinced of it. I’m also pretty sure the trade is going to involve Mark Fayne, and further that it’s more likely to be a trade that helps ‘in the now’ if this team is 6-7-0 after the Philly game.

Godspeed, men. We believe in most of you.

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869 Responses to "G12 2015-16: FLAMES AT OILERS"

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  1. oilswell says:

    Snowman: I just want them to win the ones they have to win. I don’t care if they make the playoffs just get some fucking killer instinct. You have a chance to beat a rival and crush their season at the end of a tough stretch of games for them and you blow it. You ice players who are not even replacement level

    I remember being happy they wrote in Talbot instead of Nilsson just to make sure. Not every wish granted is a net win.

    Even before the Canadiens game I was supportive of this team and thought they were playing pretty well overall. This game is making that support look ill advised.

    But they’re still missing some players, which this team can’t afford to miss.

  2. rickithebear says:

    Top 5 Goals scorers:
    Hall 12gm 5g
    Mcdavid 12gm 5g
    Draisatl 2gm 3g
    RNH 12gm 3g
    Pouliot 12gm 3g

    i look forward to Eberle one of the 10 best offensive forwards in the game.

  3. Gret99zky says:

    I wonder if Taylor Hall is sick if pissing away his career with this shitty franchise. Don’t worry Hallsy, we’ll get em next year.

  4. SK Oiler Fan says:

    The linesman up ice, correct that, still at the red line was no where near Where he should be. The referee actually called off the icing 3 seconds after Sekera touched it since he could tell all players on the ice were confused why icing wasnt called. Sigh, So much incompetence in NHL officiating. And they get paid well!

  5. Lowetide says:

    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 20s21 seconds ago

    “We should have come with a ton of energy and passion and imposed our will on a team that was playing five in seven.” – Todd McLellan

  6. oilswell says:

    Lowetide:
    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 20s21 seconds ago

    “We should have come with a ton of energy and passion and imposed our will on a team that was playing five in seven.” – Todd McLellan

    Accurate.

  7. Snowman says:

    oilswell: I remember being happy they wrote in Talbot instead of Nilsson just to make sure.Not every wish granted is a net win.

    Even before the Canadiens game I was supportive of this team and thought they were playing pretty well overall. This game is making that support look ill advised.

    But they’re still missing some players, which this team can’t afford to miss.

    I agree with the missing players but you can’t make it worse by playing Ference instead of Fayne.

    I’m really sick of the revolving D. Find three goddamn pairs and use them. I’m not sure they’ve played two games in a row with the same pairs.

  8. lucky says:

    Trivia question: What do Cam Talbot and Ty Conklin have in common?

  9. oilswell says:

    Snowman: I agree with the missing players but you can’t make it worse by playing Ference instead of Fayne.

    Yep. Like I said upthread I understand sending a message, but shorten that D bench. Or call up Hunt or something: it’s not like McLellan is using all of his forwards anyway.

  10. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:
    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 20s21 seconds ago

    “We should have come with a ton of energy and passion and imposed our will on a team that was playing five in seven.” – Todd McLellan

    It will take a complete roster turnover to rid this team of it’s Culture of Losing. Coming out flat and losing games is 100% acceptable with this group.

  11. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide:
    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 20s21 seconds ago

    “We should have come with a ton of energy and passion and imposed our will on a team that was playing five in seven.” – Todd McLellan

    That was exactly what I said to a few phlegm fans i was golfing with today. The worst part is they are looking forward to golf tomorrow and i am not anymore.

  12. G Money says:

    So I looked at the average 5v5 SA/60 rates of all teams last year. Mid-pack was 28.8 SA/60. Since over the course of a season, by definition that shot rate equates to an ‘average quality’ shot rate, that is in effect your standard of competence.

    Give up 28.8 ‘average’ shots per 60 at EV, and you are an average defender.

    Better than that, and you’re increasingly competent. Worse than that and you are increasingly incompetent.

    To reiterate, here is the DFA/60 (i.e. ‘average quality shots’ given up per hour at even strength) for the defenders and pairs tonight:

    Player DFA60
    Klef 15.3
    B. Davidson 17.2
    D. Nurse 38.7
    A. Sekera 42.4
    Ference 45.9
    E. Gryba 46.4

    Pairing DFA60
    Klef B. Davidson 17.7
    A. Sekera D. Nurse 45.2
    Ference E. Gryba 49.3

    We had one super-capable pairing, and two AHL or worse level pairings. Grybence we can all understand, but Sekera and Nurse? They got owned by one of the worst teams in the league playing 5 in 7.

  13. G Money says:

    Gret99zky: It will take a complete roster turnover to rid this team of it’s Culture of Losing. Coming out flat and losing games is 100% acceptable with this group.

    Except the only guys left from five years ago are Hall & Eberle. Otherwise it’s 100% turnover. And Hall was the best player on the ice tonight and it wasn’t close.

    Worst by far were Letestu, Lander, Purcell, Ference, Gryba, and Sekera – and most of them are new(ish).

    So is the coach. Again.

    So point the finger at who?

    Maybe if we iced a roster with six competent defensemen – or even FOUR competent defensemen for that matter – we might see something better than the dreck we saw tonight.

  14. Gret99zky says:

    Why do they so often come out flat and unprepared?

  15. G Money says:

    Gret99zky,

    Wish I knew. It is mindfuckingly aggravating.

  16. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    So I looked at the average 5v5 SA/60 rates of all teams last year.Mid-pack was 28.8 SA/60.Since over the course of a season, by definition that shot rate equates to an ‘average quality’ shot rate, that is in effect your standard of competence.

    Give up 28.8 ‘average’ shots per 60 at EV, and you are an average defender.

    Better than that, and you’re increasingly competent.Worse than that and you are increasingly incompetent.

    To reiterate, here is the DFA/60 (i.e. ‘average quality shots’ given up per hour at even strength) for the defenders and pairs tonight:

    PlayerDFA60
    Klef15.3
    B. Davidson17.2
    D. Nurse38.7
    A. Sekera42.4
    Ference45.9
    E. Gryba46.4

    PairingDFA60
    Klef B. Davidson17.7
    A. Sekera D. Nurse45.2
    Ference E. Gryba49.3

    We had one super-capable pairing, and two AHL or worse level pairings.Grybence we can all understand, but Sekera and Nurse?They got owned by one of the worst teams in the league playing 5 in 7.

    What was the average DFA/60 last year for all teams?

  17. G Money says:

    G Money: Player DFA60
    Klef 15.3
    B. Davidson 17.2
    D. Nurse 38.7
    A. Sekera 42.4
    Ference 45.9
    E. Gryba 46.4

    How sad is it that our three best defensemen tonight have fewer NHL games combined than any one of our three veteran defensemen?

  18. Pouzar says:

    JDï™:
    I blame Pouzar.

    *throws hands in the air*

  19. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    G Money,

    Does Sekera drag down his partner or does he usually lift them up?

  20. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    I haven’t worked it out as yet (my scripts had to be rewritten for this year to scrape NHL data instead of war on ice data, so I’m left with a gap between what I can do historically and what I can do game by game).

    But since Danger Adjustment is relative to the ‘average shot’ (based on shots made and goals scored), it should trend strongly towards vanilla shots against across the league, which is why I picked 28.8 as a reasonable Mendoza line for competence.

    Though as a guess I’d say it will actually trend to a number under shots against, given that scoring is also trending down (thanks refs).

  21. G Money says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!,

    I’d say he’s been all over the map so far this season. He’s had some outstanding games, and some abysmal games like this one. So he doesn’t yet seem to have a pattern as to whether he pulls up or drags down his partner. And of course, neither does Nurse!

  22. BAUCE says:

    Lowetide:
    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 20s21 seconds ago

    “We should have come with a ton of energy and passion and imposed our will on a team that was playing five in seven.” – Todd McLellan

    The question is why – can’t move forward until you figure that out.

  23. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    G Money,

    Cool thanks, matches what the eyes have seen.

    Really looking for to Reinhart coming back (hopefully for Tuesday). If only to push everyone else down the depth chart. Man Andrew Ference needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and ask if its worth it. TMac should not play him. Ever… We saw last year how much of a drag he was on his d-partners and now you’re pairing him with guys that have trouble moving the puck? Not again, there are better options.

    Nuge could play defense for the one game where it may be needed and i guarantee he would put up better numbers.

  24. G Money says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!,

    Davidson’s play might be a godsend.

    Reinhart has been better than Gryba and Ference.

    Gryba as 6D paired with Reinhart as 5D has been better than Gryba paired with anyone else.

    Schultz has also been better than Gryba or Ference, for all the shit he rightly takes.

    If Sekera can pull his head out of his ass (I’m convinced that he’s still in injury recovery mode; I’ve watched him play and he’s much better than what he’s shown so far – we should expect his typical game to be on par with the best games we’ve seen out of him so far), the team stands a chance if we can ice the 6 best guys out of:

    Sek Klef Nurse Davidson Reinhart Fayne Schultz Gryba.

    Ference must never play for this team again. There are still at least three guys on the farm (Hunt, Oesterle, Laleggia) who are better than he is.

  25. Centre of attention says:

    Remember, besides some corgi’s its not like Fayne has been knocking it out of the park. The pressure is on Chiarelli to improve this defense core dramatically. Like Todd said, “you can’t win hockey games in the NHL with 2 forward lines and 3 defenseman”

    The real MVP is Davidson, who is taking full advantage of a weak group to potentially play himself into millions of dollars eventually.

  26. G Money says:

    Centre of attention,

    Fayne (like Sekera and ALL of our veteran D) have underperformed expectations.

    But Fayne is and has been better than Gryba and Ference. Until we have someone better, he cannot sit while the other two play. Just can’t.

  27. Zelepukin says:

    The positives:

    Hall is 7th in the league in scoring and seems to be hitting his stride with Nuge in how to effectively forecheck to their strengths and maximize puck possession with their zone entry.

    We’re on the border of ridding ourselves of the slow and stupid. I can’t see Ference lasting the season. Gyba is still effective with someone like Reinhart, but not mobile enough to pick up after Ference’s errors.
    This whole argument about our D needing years of development in the AHL is proving itself wrong by comparing the level of skill of our young D, Nurse, Klef, Davidson, Rein with the lack of speed and intelligence of the old Ference, Fayne, even Sekera.

    It’s becoming evident that it’s easier to teach the new kids how to properly position themselves against NHL players than it is to somehow make seasoned D vets faster and better at passing.

  28. Remote says:

    Oilers were just as bad as the reffing–brutal.

    Not enough energy throughout the lineup, not enough try, not enough hits, poor execution, poor positional play, lots of standing still, especially in the D zone—the list goes on and on. Talbot was awful on the last goal, but if Sekera hustles a little, no issue on the icing call and maybe a different outcome. It’s even hard to fault Sekera, as there were so many individual examples of bad play throughout the game.

    TMac included himself in the post-game post-mortem—deflecting blame from the team? from Chiarelli (quickly becoming Dithers v2, with the new and improved “wait for a 20 game tryout–whaddaya mean out of the playoffs already?”)? Or admitting that the Ference decisions weren’t a good plan? He wasn’t really specific.

    Ference is done. Glaciers move faster and have more net presence. Probably pass the puck better, too.

    McDavid must be wondering how he got to the NHL and yet somehow regressed from playing with a junior team.

    Lots of stench to go around.

    I need lots of drinks….

  29. Zelepukin says:

    I almost forgot, our PP once set up, is getting in a groove. I hate to say it, but it’s rather obvious that less Jultzing results in good things happening. I’m actually dreading the game he comes back.

  30. Gerta Rauss says:

    TMac post game audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52526

    That’s the most disappointing result since the ’06 playoffs. 2 poor teams playing bad hockey.

    A real kick in the pills

  31. spoiler says:

    G-Mon,

    I’m a little confused. Shouldn’t we be comparing/baselining DFA/60 to FA/60 rather than SA/60?

  32. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Whoops. You are correct sir. My intellect has been crushed by tonights game and several hundred mini-chocolate bars. I need to recalibrate my baseline using FA/60. Thanks.

  33. oilswell says:

    Same day this happened. Same day.

  34. G Money says:

    Revised estimated Mendoza line for DFA/60 (until I can calculate the real thing) is 39.5.

    It makes Klef/Davidson look that much better, and the other four look not quite as bad. Which makes sense, because as bad as they are, it’s worth remembering the Flames are a really shitty team and shouldn’t be able to light up even as terrible a pair as Grybence to the extent suggested by the previous baseline of 28.8.

  35. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Revised estimated Mendoza line for DFA/60 (until I can calculate the real thing) is 39.5.

    It makes Klef/Davidson look that much better, and the other four look not quite as bad.Which makes sense, because as bad as they are, it’s worth remembering the Flames are a really shitty team and shouldn’t be able to light up even as terrible a pair as Grybence to the extent suggested by the previous baseline of 28.8.

    Beauty, and no prob.

  36. Centre of attention says:

    Grybence was bad tonight no doubt about it.

    But the 2 stinkers from Talbot gift wrapped the flames “W”

    without those 2 Goals against Leon would of had back to back game winners. 5 points in 2 games is not bad, though.

    I expect a win against Philly. If they can scrape some points out of these eastern matchups, the Oilers will still be in the picture MAYBE by the time Chiarelli finds the deal he likes for a defenseman.

    I don’t like the thought of watching this team struggle until reinforcements arrive, but its what were going to do [because Oilers].

    One more top 10 pick won’t hurt the Oilers. Jesse Puljujarvi looks like a superb prospect….*more sobbing*

  37. blainer says:

    OK.. Just home from a great Halloween party and PVR’D the game.. thank gord..

    So..Here goes… I am pretty much the only person here that has been quietly questioning the goaltending.. I caught big shit earlier from The bear and rightfully so as Nilsson ended up with a 941% save percentage that game.. I will say and will continue to say two things..

    1. STOP playing FERENCE… FFS

    2. Jeebus can we please just get F**k**g league average goaltending..

    End Rant..

  38. spoiler says:

    G Money: Player DFA60
    Klef 15.3
    B. Davidson 17.2
    D. Nurse 38.7
    A. Sekera 42.4
    Ference 45.9
    E. Gryba 46.4
    Pairing DFA60
    Klef B. Davidson 17.7
    A. Sekera D. Nurse 45.2
    Ference E. Gryba 49.3

    This is quite the flip flop for 2 and 25 from the previous game. I have a tough time believing Calgary’s 5 men units were more difficult to handle than MTL’s.

    So is this rookie stuff and expecting too much consistency from Nurse? Is it Sekera slacking?

    Are the samples too small for a game-by basis?

  39. blainer says:

    Also LT.. I am beginning to think that the BOTB are influencing current management and coaching. Can there possibly be a another reason WHY Tmac continues to play Ference..

    I also question Tmac’s decision to not change the goalies.. Was really hoping for Nilsson tonight.. I know great Monday morning QB ing ..

  40. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Well, I think with any of the shot metrics including DFA, you do have to use a grain of salt when applied at the individual player level because of sample size.

    However, I think in this case the results are pretty reflective of the actual game, as they were against MTL.

    Excepting the five men (Hall, Nuge, Drai, Davidson, Klef), the team played WAY better against Montreal than against Calgary. Sekera and Nurse were both good in the last game, not good in this game.

    That’s why I’m still so angry that I can’t sleep. To shit the bed this badly against this lousy a team in this important a game against a direct rival is just beyond my ken.

    I hope every Oiler player other than the five above, and the coach, are having as much trouble sleeping as I am.

    Because they should all be well rested – they went into a game they could have and should have dominated and slept through it.

    Inexcusable.

  41. blainer says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    Well, I think with any of the shot metrics including DFA, you do have to use a grain of salt when applied at the individual player level because of sample size.

    However, I think in this case the results are pretty reflective of the actual game, as they were against MTL.

    Excepting the five men (Hall, Nuge, Drai, Davidson, Klef), the team played WAY better against Montreal than against Calgary.Sekera and Nurse were both good in the last game, not good in this game.

    That’s why I’m still so angry that I can’t sleep.To shit the bed this badly against this lousy a team in this important a game against a direct rival is just beyond my ken.

    I hope every Oiler player other than the five above, and the coach, are having as much trouble sleeping as I am.

    Because they should all be well rested – they went into a game they could have and should have dominated and slept through it.

    Inexcusable.

    How sad I am to say.. I am also still awake..

  42. Seismic Source says:

    I thought Connor had a decent game. He was robbed of a point with the interference call and he gift wrapped one for Letestu that he didnt seem ready for. I was amazed he got that pass through.

  43. blainer says:

    Ok one last laugh for all us oiler diehards before I try to sleep…. Morning after the Washington game my wife said I was talking in my sleep..

    I was actually surprised to hear that.. It has been maybe 28 years since she has said that to me..

    my thoughts were.. F**k …. I’m in shit now..

    So.. with a VERY surprised voice I said to her.. What was I saying ?

    She said..

    All I heard was …Fucking Oilers !!

    This is honestly a true story..

    Man. I got get a life..lol..

  44. PhrankLee says:

    G Money: That’s why I’m still so angry that I can’t sleep.

    blainer: How sad I am to say.. I am also still awake..

    Boys I just got up. But Cyprus is a nice place to console myself. It just so happens that the game went on without me and when we count on the OIl to win against a team that has played 5 games in 7 days we are left scratching our heads.

    I cannot say I am disappointed to have missed that game. But I want to see Leon. I left for Europe the day he was called up. All reports sound great.

    How the fuck does Frolik get a hat trick against anyone but the Enoch Pee Wee team?

    Fuck the Flames is the tag but the Oil sound like they did that to themselves very nicely.

    Glad I wasn’t able to watch in retrospect. I am feeling sick.

  45. Seismic Source says:

    Im not too worried about Talbot. He really did make some rock star saves in the game. His give away goal aside, we do remember how well Scrivens handled the puck right? That goal at the end was an anomaly. The whole damn game was an anomaly.

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Came home and saw the score. Sadly, not in the least surprised. The Oilers make a bad habit of looking past opponents they shouldn’t look past. McLellan will eventually weed it out of them.

  47. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:
    Shots and distances plus other stats.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/g2-2015-10-31-oilers-vs-flames-shot-and-distance-data/

    Words cannot express how badly the Oilers played.

    Ference aside, EVERY Oiler not named Hall, Draisaitl, Davidson, and Klefbom got schooled by a terrible team.

    Those 4 + RNH, surely.

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PhrankLee: How the fuck does Frolik get a hat trick against anyone but the Enoch Pee Wee team?

    All three goals were garbage. The Enoch Pee Wee team would have prevented at least two of them.

    Possibly, no, probably the ugliest hat trick I have ever seen. All three goals were butt ugly.

  49. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Those 4 + RNH, surely.

    Yes, RNH. I noted all five in a later post, not sure how I dropped Nugey from this one.

  50. JDï™ says:

    This just about sums up that game: http://i.imgur.com/va0kV2W.gif

  51. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I don’t understand all the hand wringing.

    Take away utter garbage goals and utter garbage interference calls and we win that game 5 – 2.

    That game is on Talbot and the refs pure and simple.

  52. frjohnk says:

    Scrivens In Oct 2014. 898 save % 25 goals against 225 saves
    Talbot In Oct 2015. 897 save% 27 goals against 235 saves

    oh boy!

  53. flyfish1168 says:

    We should offer ference an ahl assistant coaching or fitness coach if he retires early or he wOn’t get anything if he waits till he actual contract retires. That should be CHIAS DEMAND.

  54. böök¡je says:

    So is that 3 years in a row that our goalies have been under 0.900 save %.

    Maybe its not the goalies?

  55. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    böök¡je,

    Dubnyk is also sub 0.900 according to a Mirtle tweet.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    böök¡je,

    No it’s the goalies. Talbot hasn’t been good in a few games

  57. Sugar Reijo says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Take away utter garbage goals and utter garbage interference calls and we win that game 5 – 2.

    That game is on Talbot and the refs pure and simple.

    That’s my feeling too. The War Room’s decision on Pouliot’s goal was beyond putrid (that’s two points now they’ve robbed McDavid of). Man, I wanted to smack that smug look off of Hartley afterwards. Like that the Oilers didn’t fold their tent after the goal was disallowed, and even going into the third down two I was confident we’d come back. Was looking forward to watching McD and Hall (who was flying) 3on3, and then…Talbot. Ugh. Just a brutal night overall.

  58. Yeti says:

    böök¡je:
    So is that 3 years in a row that our goalies have been under 0.900 save %.

    Maybe its not the goalies?

    Correct. We’ve already established that it’s all your fault, you bastard.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Damn karma. I was worried about this game. Lot of people were beyond confident around here of a blowout win. Never let your guard down vs. Calgary

    Enoch Pee Wee team has a better blue line than Ference, Gryba.

    And jury is still out on Talbot. But I’ve stated my view on that one and discussed with G and WG ad nauseum so we just have to be patient and hope this all gets ironed out. I believe it will, but I’m really not counting on improvement until game 25 overall

  60. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    This is a huge problem. Since the Washington game I’ve grown more and more nervous with the goaltending. Someone said it earlier and I concur, I’ve seen Talbot hanging way back in his net the last few games,tough to cut down an angle or get position for a tip if you are two feet deep in the blue paint.

    One thing that I’ve noticed (not sure about anyone else) seems to be a huge defensive alignment issue in our own end. Despite having a bunch of very very tall trees the ability of our defense to cover a guy in front is just as putrid as ever. The sheer number of tip-in goals over the last three games that happen directly in the slot is a major defensive miscue.

    Nurse got sucked away from Gallagher against Montreal, Bollig was left wide open in the middle last night, Frolic had a gift on one of his three. We always talk about the forwards “never being taught defense” and I agree with that to an extent but holy crap covering a guy in the slot if defense 101 for any defense learning to play anywhere. This needs to be fixed last week, you cannot keep abandoning guys in front, allowing easy tips from that far out.

    No question I am getting sick of watching Gryba or Pouliot taking penalties 200ft from their own net but I’m honest to god starved for penalties from our defense when they just bury someone in front. Make it hard to play against your team dammit!

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    It’s not karma, its a lazy hockey team not kicking an opponent when it was down. By every single predictive metric this game “should” have been a blowout. Unfortunately no predictive metric can be properly calibrated to calculate “Because Oilers.”

  62. JAG-041 says:

    It seems to me that the goaltending always starts out alright in Edmonton but then slowly gets terrible…
    Could it be the goalie coaching? I know it was Chabot when Dubnyk called it out but the new guy isn’t a former NHLer… I’m not the one to go to for this call, I’m sure many people here know better, but it looks like a possibility to me.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    It’s not karma, its a lazy hockey team not kicking an opponent when it was down. By every single predictive metric this game “should” have been a blowout. Unfortunately no predictive metric can be properly calibrated to calculate “Because Oilers.”

    Well, that’s kind of my previous point. The Oilers, of all teams, shouldn’t play down to their opponents but they often do.

    On another note… corgis!
    Check out @BennettESPN’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/BennettESPN/status/660672434786332672?s=09

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JAG-041:
    It seems to me that the goaltending always starts out alright in Edmonton but then slowly gets terrible…
    Could it be the goalie coaching? I know it was Chabot when Dubnyk called it out but the new guy isn’t a former NHLer… I’m not the one to go to for this call, I’m sure many people here know better, but it looks like a possibility to me.

    I don’t believe that to be the case. The Oilers have lacked defensive awareness, proper systems, structure, buy-in into team defense, and quite frankly, defensive talent (that includes forwards) for years. And bad habits and decisions are everywhere.

    Now, of course, over certain stretches it has been simply the goaltenders’ fault. Last year being a prime example.

    This year? Reserve judgment until game 42. Bad habits and good structure take a lot of time to break and learn, respectively.

    The defensively aware talent still lacks. Up front you can sleep soundly with Nuge, McDavid, Pouliot, and maybe Hendricks and Hall this year. I mean in terms of coverage. The bottom six have been in flux all year. And then the blue line is full of inexperienced talents and one-dimensional or limited vets.

    This is a big reason why I think Bettman .500 is about as good as we can hope for this year. This coming summer will see Chia make a lot of changes and put his stamp on the team.

    We can better assess goaltending later in the season.

  65. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!,

    Also, “by every single predictive metric” isn’t true. The Oilers’ underlying advanced stats have been pretty terrible all year. Really only had the Calgary goaltending save percentage and the 5 games in 7 nights items as predictors.

    This isn’t directed at you, but it would be sad if we turned into sore winners after all that suffering. Comments like the ones we saw in the pre-game predicting x points for McDavid or 8-3 score lines etc. just rub me the wrong way. There are no predictable blowouts for the Oilers this year as far as I believe.

  66. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I don’t understand all the hand wringing.

    Take away utter garbage goals and utter garbage interference calls and we win that game 5 – 2.

    That game is on Talbot and the refs pure and simple.

    Yes, if you take the soft goals and the crap reffing, the Oilers win.

    But what’s pathetic is that they wouldn’t have deserved to win. This is one of the key points of the Corgis and all the other numbers we suss out.

    To tell the ‘real’ story of the game, to get a bead on the underlying team and its prospects over the longer term, not just within the often-fluky confines of one game.

    And the real story of this game is that other than one line and one D pairing, the Oilers got outplayed by a really shitty tired Flames team.

    And that is inexcusable.

  67. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: All three goals were garbage. The Enoch Pee Wee team would have prevented at least two of them.

    Possibly, no, probably the ugliest hat trick I have ever seen. All three goals were butt ugly.

    Wayne Gretzky believed in the quantity theory of goals and assists.

    Alex Hemsky believed in the quality theory of goals and assists.

    More is better, even if they are ugly.

  68. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I don’t understand all the hand wringing.

    Take away utter garbage goals and utter garbage interference calls and we win that game 5 – 2.

    That game is on Talbot and the refs pure and simple.

    Hypothesis:

    When your defense is bad, it wears down the goaltending over time.

    One goes from normal stress levels to over stress levels over time. Performance deteriorates in an over-stressed environment.

    With goaltending and the Oilers, the tipping point from good stress levels to over stressed levels probably has been breached.

    And there is probably a hysteresis to this. Once over stressed, it perhaps takes an extended period of time of normal stress levels to recover peak performance.

    i.e. shell shock

  69. godot10 says:

    godot10,

    Is it possible for a goaltender to relax when Ference is on the ice?

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