SAME AS IT EVER WAS

Dear Edmonton Oilers: You can’t possibly be this bad. Seriously.

Hold on a moment, Mr. Coach. WHY did you feel a need to run two rookies AND the Andrew Ference/Eric Gryba pairing last night on defense? REALLY? You thought we’d enjoy that? WHO is making the calls on this roster? Todd McLellan? REALLY? SERIOUSLY? I recall many astute moves in San Jose, perhaps he is getting advice from above. One hopes he’ll win a battle or two before the season is gone.

POSSESSION

The Oilers are 46.9 Corsi for 5×5 % for October, No. 27 in the league. EV save percentage is .9014, No. 28 in the NHL. Frolik’s ugly hatty and insane indifference by the blue on defending sorties is one thing, but isn’t this team supposed to be improving in these areas? Edmonton finished 48.1 Corsi for 5×5 % and .9019 EV save percentage one year ago—Dallas Eakins Corsi number was over 50% the day he was fired. The Oilers were 0-4-0 to start the season and 4-4-0 since. They will not improve enough to make a dent in the Western Conference with possession and save percentages like the ones posted this October.

oil d oc 31

Sorted by Corsi for 5×5 %, the Klefbom—Davidson pairing looked good in the clean air of 71% ZS’s (and were 8-1 against the Monahan line). If we’re looking for this year’s Melker Karlsson, Brandon Davidson may have the early lead. A nice goal too.

Ference—Gryba were not competitive against the Frolik line (5-8 in 6:27, 300 goals against) and chased all night long. One of the really sinister parts of this pairing is the lack of a legit passing option. Honestly, I can’t imagine what Todd McLellan was thinking, beyond ‘need to be big against the Flames’ and of course it was Calgary’s outstanding forecheck—and inability of Edmonton’s blue to answer—that won the game.

Nurse—Sekera will get a lot of attention on the negative today (they were 2-6 against the Bennett trio) but for my money Johnny Gaudreau is the most dangerous man on the team. Combined with 50% ZS’s, I’ll mark this pairing less harshly despite the Corgi’s howl, as Gaudreau flew back to Calgary with zero’s.

Flames were less successful running Bennett against the Klefbom people, wonder why McLellan didn’t hard match that dynamic. While I’m here, would like to mention that I am highly disappointed the coach couldn’t take greater advantage of the Engelland—Hamilton pair. That duo got a steady diet of 3 and 4line Oilers and did well against them. If the Oilers are going to ignore opportunities like this, there can be no arguments about leaving points on the table. None.

WAR-ON-ICE SLEDGEHAMMER

war on ice sledge oc 2015

Things I’m not liking or am observing:

  • Mark Fayne as a healthy scratch in an important early-season game? Bad idea. If only for the long suffering fans, running the best lineup last night should have taken precedent over sending a message.
  • Justin Schultz in the ‘tough zone, tough opposition’ quadrant is a poor idea. He isn’t that player, just isn’t, and the coach needs to take advantage of what he can do best. Dallas Eakins had this right.
  • Andrew Ference playing five of the first 12 NHL games this season. What further evidence is required?
  • Why isn’t this team running the crap out of Klefbom, Sekera and Fayne? That’s your top three D.
  • Interesting to see the handling of Nurse v. Reinhart. Both getting extreme ZS’s, but Nurse is getting the tough ones and Reinhart was getting the easy ones.
  • I’d like to see Nurse get a chance at the open spot on the top four, but suspect we’re going to see Brandon Davidson in the Klefbom pairing for the next while.
  • Even now, at 4-8-0, if Peter Chiarelli made a trade for a legit top four this team could shine.

An addition to the top 4D, improving breakouts and possession, and less wobbly goaltending. That’s the list, ladies and men. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

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252 Responses to "SAME AS IT EVER WAS"

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  1. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I know this is something that upsets you, and I appreciate your points. However, Vollman, War on Ice Sledgehammers use these numbers (as far as I know) to construct their graphs. I’m following what is (as far as I know) the ‘industry standard’ as best I can.

    It’s not emotionally upsetting, it’s intellectually frustrating. I think my posting after wins and losses over the years show I don’t get the emotional highs and lows most get here with this team.

    I don’t believe the “industry” philosophy backs up this usage any more. There have been concerns from the statsheads for a few years now, largely disregarded by the hockey fanosphere.

    Nor are those sites you mention telling us how to interpret the data. That’s a narrative we are laying over top of the data. And re-emphasizing through repetition every time we re-tell the narrative.

    Since “sledgehammers” require 3 pieces of data to work, I don’t expect them to drop one dataset either. Would mean no more sledgehammer. It would cease to exist. Content providers are leery to cease things that bring traffic, attention, etc.

    WoI is a bit of a latecomer to the party (but a welcome one) and as far as I can tell is merely giving hockey fans the data that hockey fans are demanding. This demand is resulting from a false narrative overlaid on data by the “fanosphere” that is not telling that same story the data is.

    Common sense and knowledge of the game tells us this is true. Ignoring those things for the sake of an easy-to-tell-and-display narrative is frustrating because I’ve always had faith this is one corner of the internet that strives for truth, regardless of the verbal (and most of the time it still does, with other nuggets of goodness too).

    It leads to false conclusions, confirmation bias, all sort of errors. Beginning with false premises is always frustrating.

    Hope I’m not coming across as an asshole about this, I don’t mean to.

  2. 719 says:

    Hopefully the Condors can win today

  3. bendelson says:

    oliveoilers,

    Very nicely done indeed.

    ___

    The game last night was wonky and in the end, very disappointing but once again, in a most entertaining way. My wife and I are 0 – 3 this season (welcome back team Bendelson!) but the entertainment value has been high in all the games. Tension? Yup. Controversy? Hell yeah. Awful hockey? Yup. Brilliant hockey? Hell yeah. This team is ALL over the map, game to game, period to period, shift to shift – and I wouldn’t expect things to change a great deal anytime soon. I’m going to hold on tight and enjoy the ride. McDavid is fun.

    Bonus: My wife even got her wish and absolutely made the most of her opportunity to shine on the ‘kiss-cam’ at the game last night!!! Unfortunately, I was on the concourse, in line for popcorn at the time…

  4. Centre of attention says:

    Fellow Lowetidians…can we all just talk positives for the rest of the thread?

    Last game was a bummer, yeah.

    Its probably going to happen again more then once, yeah.

    But damn. Draisaitl is a boss. Eberle should be back soon. Reinhart will be back soon. Klefbom is getting better as time goes on. Davidson is emerging. McDavid will eat Philly’s defense alive, and come back for more. All signs point to Talbot being a good goalie despite the “starters slump”. He should have a rebound performance in the future.

    Just relax, guys. Things WILL get better.

    I know it hurts that the Oilers pissed away a decade before getting competent management, but now that they have it lets just let this thing play out. Save yourself an ulcer and just look at the positives.

  5. Professor Q says:

    Yeah, all I see is “Cheer them like they are Stanley Cup winners!” after a win and “Booo! They all suck! Worst team in the league. Trade them all.” after a loss.

    Same ol’ Oilers fans…

    Disappointing to see Lowetide fall into that behaviour, too.

  6. AsiaOil says:

    Well good morning to bi-polar nation – man this place needs some lithium to gain some balance 🙂

    Here ‘s the deal – the defense is a problem obviously enough – and to fix it a shiny toy will need to be cashed in. Over 90% of the problems on defense go away of you have a guy who can carry the top pair with a decent partner – the rest will be addressed through development of existing guys. One of the young forwards will need to be dealt to get that guy so you best make your peace with it and hope the right one is dealt. My choice would be one of th Nuge (best return) or Eberle since they play the least aggressive game. You mileage may vary.

    —————————-

    Also time to update my bet with G Money. As you may recall we had a slight disagreement about whether a handful of games early in a players career could act as a reliable predictor of goalie development. My contrary opinion is that it is extremely difficult to predict whether a guy can be a starting goalie (with all the pressures involved) until they actually prove they can do it. Find proven good goalie – keep proven good goalie. It’s not voodoo – it’s just really hard to predict mental strength (the key attribute in my opinion) in situations that a player has never faced. But anyway – here is how the bet fares to date with a very long stretch of pavement still ahead.

    1) G Money predicted that by the end of 2016-2017 season, Ben Scrivens is back to being an above average to elite NHL goalie (call it .917 or above all sits, or .922 EV, adj sv%)

    Current Status – AHL backup: 1 start and . 848 SP

    2) G Money predicted that by the end of 2016-2017 season, Cam Talbot is an elite NHL goalie (.920 AS and .925 EV, adj)

    Current Status – Oiler starter: 10 GP and .897 SP

    3) G Money predicted that beyond of 2015-2016 season, Jhonas Enroth is established as a legitimate NHL starter (similar to Scrivens’ projected numbers)

    Current Status – LAK backup: 1 game GP and .973 SP

    4) G Money predicted that by the end of 2015-2016 season, Karri Ramo is established as a backup and not a starter (.915 or lower all sits)

    Current Status – CAL backup: 4 GP and .868 SP

    At this point – and again it’s very early – it looks more like Scrivens and Ramo could be AHL fodder or in Europe and that Talbot and Enroth may be quality backups. We’ll see – but good to keep track of – and I sure as hell hope he’s right about Talbot. Much depends upon him but it’s 50/50 whether he succeeds or cracks in that pressure cooker behind that crappy defense this season. Not ideal……

  7. godot10 says:

    dustrock: Agreed completely.No coach has been able to figure that part out.

    This is not true. Nelson’s team last year came out of the gate and got leads regularly. They had trouble holding them, but they got out of the starting blocks more than this team.

    Eakins’ teams had zilch out of the starting gate.

  8. BAUCE says:

    Professor Q:
    Yeah, all I see is “Cheer them like they are Stanley Cup winners!” after a win and “Booo! They all suck! Worst team in the league. Trade them all.” after a loss.

    Same ol’ Oilers fans…

    Disappointing to see Lowetide fall into that behaviour, too.

    It’s called emotion – something the team should have had just a little more of right off the bat last night.

  9. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: If we use Klef with and without Schultz last year we see:

    ~2.5 more offensive zone face offs/game with Schultz~2 less dzone face offs/game with Schultz

    We know that it takes 22 seconds for the CF% to normalize after a o/d zone face off so 4.5 zone gain is 99 seconds per game where they have a CF advantage compared to Klef apart.

    82 games x 99 seconds 8118 seconds or 135:18 of advantage time or roughly 12% of the ice time being tilted over the entire year.

    Its real.

    (If you want I’ll show my math if asked, I’m going to be busy for the next few hours though)

    Also,

    Why is every post where the poster is being a snipy ass contain the word “sorry”?

    1. Those aren’t just face-offs where the shift started. They’re also face-offs intra shift too. If Klef is seeing that drop, one of the conclusions is that his unit is not moving the puck out of its end before the next stoppage. Another possible factor is that they’re icing the puck more often with him on the ice.

    And most of those FOs that occur simultaneously with the shift starting will be because it is that player’s turn to go on the ice, no matter where the puck is.

    And where that puck is, is dependent on who was on the ice previously and what they accomplished.

    So to attribute these things to a “massive push” by the coach is incorrect.

    2. You’re also assuming a face-off win. It should be about 50-50 but the Oil don’t win face-offs at that rate, especially with the skill guys on the ice. At 50-50 your numbers are halved when it comes to Expected Corsi Events, but with the Oil, we’re running at more like 40%.

    (And still requires ignoring my first point)

    3. People often say sorry to assure the other person they’re not attacking the person but the concept and the words. Apparently even that is failing. 😉

  10. dangilitis says:

    Professor Q:
    Yeah, all I see is “Cheer them like they are Stanley Cup winners!” after a win and “Booo! They all suck! Worst team in the league. Trade them all.” after a loss.

    Same ol’ Oilers fans…

    Disappointing to see Lowetide fall into that behaviour, too.

    I believe his rhetoric gets a bit more hyperbolic after losses like this to drive home the point, the main point of the article, I believe – which is that the new coach and GM are making the same mistakes that we thought would never happen again.

    1) Playing Ference or Gryba over Fayne is like playing Hunt over Petry (although not as heinous)
    2) Playing Schultz so much in either year doesn’t make a lot of sense, especially on the PP when he can’t a) keep the puck in at the blue line or b) fire a slap shot with any mustard on it
    3) Anchoring RNH and Hall with Klinkhammer, Slepyshev, etc. with Draisaitl sitting in the AHL is a 1st line decision circa Pat Quinn
    4) Rolling lines without attempt to get favourable match-ups

    Pretty sure LT also just defended the good players and suggested we rid ourselves of only the bad ones. And I am definitely sure he is not planning any parades.

    No conflicts of interest here, other than to defend someone who would probably be too polite to tell you otherwise.

  11. Centre of attention says:

    SO, posters here think Fayne-Gryba or Fayne-Ference would be a better pairing then Ference-Gryba?
    Please.

    Lol. The problem is that Todd is forced to choose 2 of the 3 rotten apples.

    Staples just posted a great chart @ the cult showing that Fayne is just as bad as Gryba for mistakes on scoring chances and scoring chances +/-

    Why can’t we just get a fresh bushel of red delicious apples?

    Wheres that genie when you need him….

  12. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    Matt Henderson (@archaeologuy) has an interesting idea for lines when Hendricks and Eberle get back:

    Hall-RNH-Hendricks – worked very, very well in small sample this year

    Pou-CMD-Yak – why fuck with it?

    DrySaddle-Lander-Eberle

    Hmmmmmmm

    Might be a good way to ease Eberle into the line up as he won’t be in game shape.

    Cmon now McLood. It isn’t going to help Eberle ease himself back into the lineup playing 3rd line minutes with lessers, battling his ass off and getting owned.

    Besides you said why f with things and then you went ahead and f’d with H-RNH-E. The most proven line on the team.. If you want to slide him in on McD’s right side because Drai has continued to light it up then cool, but I’d bet he hits the ice firing on at least 7 offensive cylinders.

    Yak hasn’t proven a damn thing on that second line has he? Sample size? Could a goat score 20 playing with McD? Didn’t Semenko pot 12 playing with Gretzky?

    If the Oilers want to ice their best 6 on the top two lines to improve the W column I just don’t believe Yak is in the mix. Maybe his value is up enough that he along with a pick could garner something decent to help prop this woeful D corpse.

    He’s not a third liner either so that shouldn’t happen. I’d really like someone, and you preferably because I respect the hell out of you, to tell me exactly wtf Yak is REALLY good at. Outside of helter skelter, inconsistency, and drifting out of position I mean.

  13. Centre of attention says:

    dangilitis:
    4) Rolling lines without attempt to get favourable match-ups

    This is the most concerning thing to me. McDavid saw way too much of Brodie last night, especially due to the fact Todd had last change.

  14. Professor Q says:

    dangilitis: I believe his rhetoric gets a bit more hyperbolic after losses like this to drive home the point, the main point of the article, I believe – which is that the new coach and GM are making the same mistakes that we thought would never happen again.

    1) Playing Ference or Gryba over Fayne is like playing Hunt over Petry (although not as heinous)
    2) Playing Schultz so much in either year doesn’t make a lot of sense, especially on the PP when he can’t a) keep the puck in at the blue line or b) fire a slap shot with any mustard on it
    3) Anchoring RNH and Hall with Klinkhammer, Slepyshev, etc. with Draisaitl sitting in the AHL is a 1st line decision circa Pat Quinn
    4) Rolling lines without attempt to get favourable match-ups

    Pretty sure LT also just defended the good players and suggested we rid ourselves of only the bad ones. And I am definitely sure he is not planning any parades.

    No conflicts of interest here, other than to defend someone who would probably be too polite to tell you otherwise.

    I understand this, and obviously I want the team to perfom better, yet when these things are praised and patience is preached when they work yet condemned and urgency is preached when they don’t to such extremes with no middle ground or usual logic by a plethora of seemingly bipolar commenting fans and otherwise on various sites, it gets really confusing and a bit irritating (well, probably more frustrating than irritating). Especially in quick succession.

    It’s like nothing matters, yet everything does at the same time…

  15. flyfish1168 says:

    oilswell: If an elk darts out suddenly and you slam into it, there is no solace found in analyzing the actions of the elk if you were too tired and driving too fast while texting.

    Oilers could have avoided the wreck despite the goaltending and the interference call.That’s the big concern, not the random happenings.

    He has a big brain and he has options. elk small brain doesn’t know better. Deer in headlight. Poor analogy

  16. DocFan says:

    Woodguy,

    Is there a reason why you feel the need to attack someone’s profession? You both may not agree on a personal level, but what does that have to do with this individuals professional ethics, morals and ability to treat his patients?

    I usually enjoy reading your posts, however I don’t think you are the most mannered poster. No issue with that as it is a blog after all. I have gathered you are a lawyer, yes? It would be misguided of me to assume your persona on an Internet blog has anything to with your professional competency and capacity. My advise is you should probably follow those same rules for others, but feel free to proceed as you see fit.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q: I understand this, yet when these things are praised and patience is preached when they work yet condemned and urgency is preached when they don’t to such extremes with no middle ground or usual logic by a plethora of seemingly bipolar commenting fans and otherwise on various sites, it gets really confusing and a bit irritating. Especially in quick succession.

    It’s like nothing matters, yet everything does at the same time…

    I agree. If that goal at the end never went in, and McDavid scored in overtime….Nobody would be flipping out as bad.

    This team is bad, they are going to do things bad teams do. Like let in a bad goal with 8 seconds left. The veteran posters here are expecting way too much from this group haha.

    I’m just watching the team because McDavid at the moment, the wins/losses have little effect on this lowly Oilers fan. The second you start caring too much, this team disappoints you.

    Lower you expectations and everything seems to be going as planned.

  18. Armchair GM says:

    Say what you want about roster makeup and deployment, the truth is that the Oilers win last night’s game if it weren’t for two inexplicable plays by Talbot. You can’t have those plays by your goalie at any level and expect to win. We could have had CFP as the outlet instead of Nurse on Talbot’s misadventure behind the net and the result would have been the same. The winning goal was scored from behind the goal line. You could have had a HOF defender in position and that puck still goes in. Spending any time on who was playing on the blue last night misses the point.

    I’m more upset with the intermission hatchet job on Taylor Hall. They were willing to make a point of the turn overs, but the man absolutely dominated that game. No context from the panel by the end of the game. No mea culpa from the panel. I’m old enough to remember Gretzky at his prime. He turned the puck over more than anyone I had ever seen. However, he also HAD the puck more than anyone I had ever seen. No one creates at a high level without giving something back. I’d take multiple Taylor Hall’s on my team any day. (and anyone who wouldn’t really doesn’t understand hockey.)

  19. Centre of attention says:

    I said this last night, don’t know if anyone caught it:

    Taylor Hall has 13 points in 12 games, leads the league almost in shot production and his shooting% is at his career average.

    Hall is a sparkling +5 on a team that is routinely being outscored while also playing top minutes.

    Hall is carrying the team possession wise, the Oilers would be dead last without #4’s shot production.

    Hall pumped up Draisaitl the other night leading the way to a win, lead the team by example last night by putting up 3 huge points and “pushing the river” on an otherwise very tough night for the team. He stood up for Talbot in the post-game interview when he could of easily threw him under the bus.

    Hall for Captain. Who’s with me?

  20. flyfish1168 says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Ryan,

    I agree with 97% of your posts. Lander is a 4th line centre at best. He put up decent boxcars at the end of last year wereheavily influenced by the unsustainable pp. His defensive play has been OK at best this year. Lander cannot piss a drop in NHL unless it is on the powerplay or with Hall (who makes almost anyone look like a player). I would rather has Letestu on the third line. And having Hendricks on the first line when Eberle and Drai are healthy makes absolutely no sense. I like Hendricks but he is also 4th line player. Why would we want to force our skill players to lug around 4th line plugs?

    I like the idea of a big forward that can go into the corner with Hendricks compete level. Win the puck and get it to our skill players that are not savvy in those areas of the ice. Having pairs playing together and mixing up the 3rd wheel is a good idea. Hendricks is doing a great job, bringing some emotion to this quite line.

    Klink going on a forechecking mission on the line is good thing too. You know Hall and RNH will often see the oppositions best D pairing. So let Klink hammer them a few times. no pun intended.

    Drai is big and he too brings a different element to this line. A few times watching them cycle down low with Drai and break down the oppositions d zone.

    This gives the team options and especially when the season is long and injuries happen.

  21. delooper says:

    Here’s some more sand in the face. “How Jeff Petry changed the Montreal Canadiens”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/how-jeff-petry-has-changed-the-montreal-canadiens/?google_editors_picks=true

  22. Centre of attention says:

    delooper:
    Here’s some more sand in the face.“How Jeff Petry changed the Montreal Canadiens”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/how-jeff-petry-has-changed-the-montreal-canadiens/?google_editors_picks=true

    Too soon, Delooper.

    Too soon.

    *more sobbing*

    Sekera-Petry
    Nurse-Klefbom
    Rienhart-Schultz
    Davidson

    Buyout/Not needed because hypothetical Petry retention:
    Ference
    Gryba
    Nikitin

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    Writer on Ducks blog commenting about a rumored Cam Fowler trade. Maybe Oilers can get into this and use schultz as one of the assets going to the Ducks. 🙂

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ed-Stein/Thoughts-on-Ducks-Rumors-Possible-Deals-and-Boudreau/210/72175

  24. oliveoilers says:

    flyfish1168:
    Writer on Ducks blog commenting about a rumored Cam Fowler trade. Maybe Oilers can get into this and use schultz as one of the assets going to the Ducks.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ed-Stein/Thoughts-on-Ducks-Rumors-Possible-Deals-and-Boudreau/210/72175

    My god, Fish, what have you done?

    Cue ridiculous trade proposals where we trash a player in one sentence and trade him for a top player in the next whilst bandying about whore buzz sentences like “lottery protected draft pick” and “the rights to Omark”.

    The other 29 teams in the NHL don’t have MacT as GM.

  25. Gret99zky says:

    Centre of attention:

    Hall for Captain. Who’s with me?

    Nope.

    We always ditch our captains.

    Hall’s a keeper.

  26. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: 1.Those aren’t just face-offs where the shift started.They’re also face-offs intra shift too.If Klef is seeing that drop, one of the conclusions is that his unit is not moving the puck out of its end before the next stoppage. Another possible factor is that they’re icing the puck more often with him on the ice.

    I know.

    There is still the post face off CF% effect to take into consideration.


    And most of those FOs that occur simultaneously with the shift starting will be because it is that player’s turn to go on the ice, no matter where the puck is.

    Well, yes and no.

    No NHL coach doles out TOI evenly between the three pairs and most coaches are more concerned about matching their Dpairs to opposing forwards rather than Forwards vs Forwards.

    The most extreme example is Suter playing almost 30min/game.

    He’s not going out there every 3rd shift.

    And where that puck is, is dependent on who was on the ice previously and what they accomplished.

    So to attribute these things to a “massive push” by the coach is incorrect.

    No, the facts don’t bear this out.

    Last year in 1428 5v5 TOI Schultz saw:

    531 OZ face offs
    313 DZ face offs

    Last year in 1088 5v5 TOI Fayne saw:

    338 OZ face offs
    443 DZ face offs

    You can’t explain that away by happenstance.

    That is on purpose.

    2.You’re also assuming a face-off win.It should be about 50-50 but the Oil don’t win face-offs at that rate, especially with the skill guys on the ice. At 50-50 your numbers are halved when it comes to Expected Corsi Events, but with the Oil, we’re running at more like 40%.

    (And still requires ignoring my first point)

    When Tyler’s site was still up he was showing some teams like the Ducks still had 86% CF in the 22 seconds following an ozone face off LOSS. Where the puck starts matters a lot.

    The average for a ozone face off loss seems to be 56%CF for 17 seconds

    Link: http://thehockeywriters.com/re-evaluating-open-corsi/

    Situation Ozone Win Ozone Loss Nzone Win Nzone Loss Dzone Win Dzone Loss
    X Secs Since 25 17 20 20 17 25
    Lg Average 83% 56% 69% 31% 44% 17%

    The above table didn’t cut and paste well, but there are 6 headers, 6 time counts and 6 CF’s there.

    17% average after a dzone face off loss for 25 seconds is as dramatic as 83% for 25 seconds after an ozone win.


    3.People often say sorry to assure the other person they’re not attacking the person but the concept and the words.Apparently even that is failing.

    I think its the opposite.

    I think many people type “sorry” and think it gives them the green light to be a dink.

    I’m a dink without the prerequisite “sorry”

    So, sorry.

  27. Woodguy says:

    DocFan,

    I can be a dink.

    I thought Ryan attacked me for no reason so I was a dink towards him. It was immature as am I from time to time.

    I am not a lawyer.

    I buy and sell wood.

    Also,

    I think I might slow down my participation in the Oiler blogosphere.

    I get many tweets, DMs posts etc telling me that I’ve disappointed a person in one way or another. Usually its after I’ve been a dink.

    I’m not sure I want the weight of other’s expectations for me as part of my hobby.

    I can’t live up to other’s expectations of me.

    Nor do I really want to.

  28. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: I am not a lawyer.
    I buy and sell wood.

    Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.

    PS: Don’t leave! Though I did have a little hiatus of a week or so, and felt refreshed when I came back.

  29. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: 3.People often say sorry to assure the other person they’re not attacking the person but the concept and the words.Apparently even that is failing.
    I think its the opposite.
    I think many people type “sorry” and think it gives them the green light to be a dink.

    Darcy if you think I am including “Sorry” as permission/excuse to attack you personally, your thoughts are sadly misguided.

    Woodguy: You can’t explain that away by happenstance.

    Where is “happenstance”?

    The theory we are reviewing depends on the coach using zone starts as a push.

    A large percentage of these zone starts are coming within a shift. That is, the coach has NO effect on the Zone Start, and the unit on the ice has a very significant effect. That isn’t “happenstance”.

    To then use that same data to say the coach is giving the player a “push” is bad math. One needs to remove the starts where the coach had no input and compare the remaining number to the baseline to determine a push. No site I can find is doing that.

  30. spoiler says:

    Two thought experiments that might better outline my point…

    1. Let’s say the Oil play a near perfect game and every whistle results in a face off in the opposing team’s end…

    The prevailing narrative would lead us to say, “the coach gave every player on the team a zone start push”.

    That is an obviously absurd statement.

    Opportunity matters.

    2. Let’s say the Oil play a game where every face off, other than the ones to start a period, occurs in the middle of the shift. Let’s say those mid-shift face offs occur 100% in the Ozone for Schultz and 100% in the DZone for Fayne.

    The prevailing narrative would lead us to say, “Schultz got a huge Ozone push and Fayne was sent out there with crippling starts”.

    That’s not as obvious, but is equally as absurd as the first statement.

    When the ZS occurs matters too.

  31. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Let’s put this to rest.

    What I said could definitely be construed as me being a dink. If I had said that comment to a random poster here, sure that would be a logical conclusion.

    In this instance, I mistakenly thought that you and I had enough of a rapport that I could rib you a bit when I vehemently disagreed with you. I was wrong and I apologize.

    I only rib people that I genuinely like and respect to avoid being a dink. The Internet and all that all that gets lost in communication and socializing…

    I also thought that, “I’m sorry but” had already reached meme status here. 🙂

  32. AsiaOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Take a break if needed. Hey changed my handle and pretty much left for two years when the Eakin/MacT combo of doom was too much to handle. But don’t be gone long – this thing is going to rock once a couple more deals are made – so much crap to clear out and too little time this summer.

  33. Eastern Oil says:

    The Condors seem to be the opposite of the Oilers this year (other than the losses). They seem to go up every game by 1-2 and then give it all back and lose.

    Ugly hit by Buff on Gallagher too….

  34. AsiaOil says:

    Don’t need another problem or reclamation job – need top pair dman to push everyone down. Can’t ask that of Sekera as Chia made very clear when he signed – good 2nd pair anchor dman.

    flyfish1168:
    Writer on Ducks blog commenting about a rumored Cam Fowler trade. Maybe Oilers can get into this and use schultz as one of the assets going to the Ducks.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ed-Stein/Thoughts-on-Ducks-Rumors-Possible-Deals-and-Boudreau/210/72175

  35. Water Fire says:

    spoiler: It’s not emotionally upsetting, it’s intellectually frustrating.I think my posting after wins and losses over the years show I don’t get the emotional highs and lows most get here with this team.

    I don’t believe the “industry” philosophy backs up this usage any more. There have been concerns from the statsheads for a few years now, largely disregarded by the hockey fanosphere.

    Nor are those sites you mention telling us how to interpret the data.That’s a narrative we are laying over top of the data.And re-emphasizing through repetition every time we re-tell the narrative.

    Since “sledgehammers” require 3 pieces of data to work, I don’t expect them to drop one dataset either.Would mean no more sledgehammer.It would cease to exist.Content providers are leery to cease things that bring traffic, attention, etc.

    WoI is a bit of a latecomer to the party (but a welcome one) and as far as I can tell is merely giving hockey fans the data that hockey fans are demanding.This demand is resulting from a false narrative overlaid on data by the “fanosphere” that is not telling that same story the data is.

    Common sense and knowledge of the game tells us this is true.Ignoring those things for the sake of an easy-to-tell-and-display narrative is frustrating because I’ve always had faith this is one corner of the internet that strives for truth, regardless of the verbal (and most of the time it still does, with other nuggets of goodness too).

    It leads to false conclusions, confirmation bias, all sort of errors.Beginning with false premises is always frustrating.

    Hope I’m not coming across as an asshole about this, I don’t mean to.

    Thank you, I have also put this out there many times. The beautiful thing that was the hockey stats evolution was stalled in the bud by a lack of data. Every blogger that had any mathematical idea what they were doing went in house, of course for better data, and maybe the pay to do their hobby.

    Those that saw the problem collect their own data.

  36. oldfan80 says:

    Wow, Lowetide, you are pretty worked up. I often agree with you but I am not too worked up about the Oiler problems. Eakins might have had good Corsi numbers but the games were mostly unwatchable. TMac has some problems to fix but I am still optimistic about the direction they are going and the games are exciting to watch.

  37. flyfish1168 says:

    Here i thought both can use a change in scenery

  38. spoiler says:

    Water Fire: Thank you, I have also put this out there many times. The beautiful thing that was the hockey stats evolution was stalled in the bud by a lack of data. Every blogger that had any mathematical idea what they were doing went in house, of course for better data, and maybe the pay to do their hobby.

    Those that saw the problem collect their own data.

    Thank you, back!

    I have a sneaking suspicion that when Zone Starts first came out, people thought the data was limited to when a player started his shift. That certainly is the way the narrative was constructed. Now that we know that this isn’t true–that is, we know the dataset contains a whole bunch of other stuff–people seem unwilling to give up the original narrative.

    When the model leads one to absurd conclusions, the model is invalid for interpreting that data.

    We either need a different model or a different dataset. That is what both Math and Logic tell us.

  39. RPG says:

    Is it too early to get the pee uuu’s for Auston Matthews going?

  40. mc79hockey says:

    spoiler,

    I can’t really get into this but I agree with your critique of zone starts here. Bad name for marketing purposes. Of course, outside of icings the coach is making something of a choice every time you’re on the ice for a given faceoff, even if you came on the ice ten seconds earlier.

  41. spoiler says:

    mc79hockey:
    spoiler,

    I can’t really get into this but I agree with your critique of zone starts here. Bad name for marketing purposes.Of course, outside of icings the coach is making something of a choice every time you’re on the ice for a given faceoff, even if you came on the ice ten seconds earlier.

    Agreed 100%. It isn’t likely he is going to take that player off, but he has the option.

    I also suspect a FO specialist starts more often off FOs than on the fly.

    There’s a whole bunch of stuff here that would be nice to separate out because I think it would give us some insight.

    But thank you, Tyler.

  42. flyfish1168 says:

    oliveoilers: My god, Fish, what have you done?

    Cue ridiculous trade proposals where we trash a player in one sentence and trade him for a top player in the next whilst bandying about whore buzz sentences like “lottery protected draft pick” and “the rights to Omark”.

    The other 29 teams in the NHL don’t have MacT as GM.

    wow just was rethinking and reread your comment . Oliveroiler you need to learn to READ 1st and then think before engaging behind a keyboard. PART of the assets going back. remember its ones opinion no real correct answer. Reminder “Remember think 1st “

  43. mc79hockey says:

    spoiler,

    Do you have a Twitter account? Alternately, an email addy? Want to send you something.

  44. spoiler says:

    flyfish1168,

    That’s a bit ironic. I didn’t take that as a shot at you. Notice the “we” in OO’s middle paragraph? He was talking about all of us fans jumping on the rumour like a pit bull on a meat truck.

  45. spoiler says:

    mc79hockey:
    spoiler,

    Do you have a Twitter account? Alternately, an email addy? Want to send you something.

    @CtrlPPress

  46. spoiler says:

    mc79hockey:
    spoiler,

    Do you have a Twitter account? Alternately, an email addy? Want to send you something.

    I’ve just opened up my DMs to “Anyone”. lol.

  47. stevezie says:

    bendelson: Bonus: My wife even got her wish and absolutely made the most of her opportunity to shine on the ‘kiss-cam’ at the game last night!!! Unfortunately, I was on the concourse, in line for popcorn at the time…

    Classic Bemdelson!

  48. oilswell says:

    flyfish1168: He has a big brain and he has options. elk small brain doesn’t know better. Deer in headlight. Poor analogy

    SH/T HAPPENS
    ————————————————
    Driving: elk leaping
    Oilers: bad calls/bounces/breaks

    Bad Consequences
    ————————————————
    Driving: crushed car
    Oilers: lost game

    Avoidable Risky Behaviour
    ————————————————
    Driving: texting while tired and speeding
    Oilers: roster and deployment decisions

    What NOT to blame/no solace found
    ————————————————
    Driving: elk behaviour
    Oilers: bad calls/bounces/breaks

    What SHOULD have been done instead?
    ————————————————
    Driving: attentive driving — best chance at reacting to sh/t happening
    Oilers: good roster/deployment decisions — best chance surviving sh/t happening

    Analogy seems clear to me.

  49. oilswell says:

    Ryan: I also thought that, “I’m sorry but” had already reached meme status here.

    We all know this is BÖÖK¡JE’s fault.

  50. oliveoilers says:

    flyfish1168: wow just was rethinking and reread your comment . Oliveroiler you need to learn to READ 1st and then think before engaging behind a keyboard.PART of the assets going back.remember its ones opinion no real correct answer.Reminder “Remember think 1st ”

    There’s a lot of ways I could respond to this. If I was vindictive, I’d call you an idiot. I could wright a clever response highlighting that you should take your own advice.

    Instead, i’ll leave you with this: It was meant as a joke.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    oliveoilers,

    OO,I have followed this blog for many years. We all live for the Oilers here. We all have an opinion. Some share it strongly compared to others. Its very difficult to know if and when one is joking . I get a pulse of how strong some posters here feel about their own opinion.That is ok with me. I do not try to offend anyone here. But after I read it I felt I had to respond back to this A-hole comment with a strong responds and I apologizes for this and I am moving on.

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